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SISTEM INFORMASI MANAJEMEN 2* D3 MANAJEMEN INFORMATIKA ATA 05/06

Sistem Pakar
Ati Harmoni

Artificial Intelligence
Definition:
The activity of providing such machines as computers with the ability to display behavior that would be regarded as intelligent if it were observed in humans.

History
1956, Dartmouth College. John McCarthy coined term. Same year, Logic Theorist (first AI program. Herbert Simon played a part) Past 20 or so years, DOD and NSF have funded AI research at top schools (Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, etc.) Desert Storm opened up new funding (smart bombs, night vision)

Areas of Artificial Intelligence

Expert systems Robotics Natural language Neural networks

AI hardware

Learning

Perceptive systems (vision, hearing)

Artificial Intelligence

The Appeal of Expert Systems


A computer program that attempts to code the knowledge of human experts in the form of heuristics (i.e. a rule of thumb) Two distinctions from DSS
1. has the potential to extend the managers problem-solving ability beyond his or her normal capabilities 2. the ability to explain how the solution was reached

User

Instructions & information

Solutions & explanations

Knowledge

User interface Knowledge base

Inference engine

Problem Domain

Expert system

Development engine

An Expert System Model

Expert and knowledge engineer

Expert system model - main parts:


User interface Knowledge base Inference engine Development engine

User Interface
User enters:
Instructions Information

Menus, commands, natural language, GUI Menus, commands, natural language, GUI

Expert system provides:


Solutions Explanations of
Questions Problem solutions

Knowledge Base
Description of problem domain Rules: A knowledge representation technique
such as IF:THEN logic networks of rules
Lowest levels provide evidence Top levels produce 1 or more conclusions A conclusion is called a Goal variable.

Conclusion

A Rule Set That Produces One Final Conclusion

Conclusion

Conclusion

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Evidence

Cheetah
R9 And And Tawny color

Tiger R10 And Dark spots

Giraffe R11 And Long legs Black strips

Zebra R12 And Long neck

Ostrich R13 And Cant fly

Penguin R14 And Black& White Swims

Albatross

R15 And Flies Well

Ungulate
Or Mammal Or R1 Hair R2 Gives milk Carnivore Or R5 milk Eats milk R6 Hoofs Chews cud And R7 R8 And

Bird
Or R3 R4 And Flies LEGEND: Lays eggs

Feathers

A Rule Set That Can Produce More Than One Final Conclusion

And
Pointed teeth Forward Eyes

Rules
Claws Conditions

Action (conclusions)

Rule Selection
Selecting rules to efficiently solve a problem is difficult Some goals can be reached with only a few rules; rules 3 and 4 identify bird

Inference Engine
Two basic approaches to using rules
1. Forward reasoning (data driven) 2. Reverse reasoning (goal driven)

Forward Reasoning (forward chaining)


Rule is evaluated as:
(1) true, (2) false, (3) unknown

Rule evaluation is an iterative process When no more rules can fire, the reasoning process stops even if a goal has not been reached

Rule 1
IF A THEN B

Rule 7
F
IF B OR D THEN K

Rule 2
IF C THEN D

Rule 10
IF K AND L THEN N

The Forward Reasoning Process


T
Rule 12
IF N OR O THEN P

Rule 3
IF M THEN E

Rule 8
IF E THEN L

Rule 4
IF K THEN F

T Legend: Rule 9 T
IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M T First pass

Rule 5
IF G THEN H

Rule 11
IF M THEN O

T
Second pass

Rule 6
IF I THEN J

Third pass

Reverse Reasoning (backward chaining)


Divide problem into subproblems
Try to solve one subproblem Then try another

A Problem and Its Subproblems


Rule 10

IF K AND L THEN N Rule 11


IF M THEN O

Rule 12 IF N OR O THEN P Legend:


Problem

Subproblem

A Subproblem Becomes the New Problem


Rule 7 IF B OR D THEN K Rule 8 IF E THEN L Rule 10 IF K AND LTHEN N

Legend: Rule 12 IF N OR O THEN P


Problem

Subproblem

Step 4 Rule 1 IF A THEN B


T

Step 3
Rule 7 IF B OR D THEN K

The First Five Problems Are Identified


Step 2 Rule 10 IF K AND L THEN N Step 1 Rule 12 IF N OR O THEN P

Rule 2 IF C THEN D
Rule 3 IF M THEN E

Step 5 IF E THEN L Rule 11 Rule 9 IF (F AND H) OR J THEN M


IF M IF M THEN THENO O

Legend:
Problems to be solved

The Next Four Problems Are Rule 12 Identified Step 8


Rule 4

If K Then F
Rule 5

If N Or O Then P T
T Step 7 Step 6

Step 9

If G Then H
T

IF (F And H) Or J Then M T Rule 9

If M Then O

Rule 6

Rule 11

Legend:
Problems to be solved

If I Then J

Forward Versus Reverse Reasoning


Reverse reasoning is faster than forward reasoning Reverse reasoning works best when
there are multiple goal variables there are many rules all or most rules do not have to be examined in the process of reaching a solution

Handling Uncertainty
Two types of uncertainty
Rules Conditions

Certainty factors (CFs) range from 0.00 to 1.00

Development Engine
Programming languages Lisp, Prolog, and recently C++ Expert system shells

Role of the Systems Analyst


Knowledge engineers work with the expert in designing expert systems Beyond traditional analyst skills, the following skills are needed
understand how the expert applies his or her knowledge be able to extract the description of the knowledge (rules as well as facts)

System Development Process


Initiate the development process Develop the expert system prototype User participation Expert system maintenance

Prototyping Approach
A new player: the expert Delayed user involvement Need for maintenance

Prototyping Is Incorporated in the Development of an Expert System Systems analyst step 1


Study the Study the problem Problem domain domain

Expert

User

step 2
step 3

Define the problem Specify the rule set

step 4
step 5

Test the prototype system


Construct the interface

step 6 step 7 step 8


Maintain the system

Conduct user tests Use the system

Example: Financial Expert System


Credit approval Knowledge base for the example consists of rules and a mathematical model User interface Five decision categories; credit amount influences weightings

Expert System Advantages


To managers Consider more alternatives Apply high level of logic Have more time to evaluate decision rules Consistent logic To the firm Better performance from management team Retain firms knowledge resource

Expert System Disadvantages

Cant handle inconsistent knowledge

Cant apply judgment or intuition

Neural Networks
Expert systems should be able to learn, and improve their performance Neural net design -- a bottom-up approach to modeling human intuition

The Human Brain


Neuron -- the information processor
Input -- dendrites Processing -- soma Output -- axon

Neurons are connected by the synapse

Simple Biological Neurons


Soma (processor) Axonal Paths (output)

Synapse Axon

Dendrites (input)

Artificial Neural Systems (ANS)


McCulloch-Pitts mathematical neuron function (late 1930s) Hebbs learning law (early 1940s) Neurocomputers
Marvin Minskys Snark (early 1950s) Rosenblatts Perceptron (mid 1950s)

Current Methodology
Mathematical models Complex networks Repetitious training -- the ANS learns by example. An ANS can learn; an expert system cannot.

Single Artificial Neuron


y1 w1 w2 w3

y2 y3

wn-1 yn-1

OUT1
Input Layer

OUTn

The Multi-Layer Perceptron

Y1

Yn2

OutputL ayer

IN1

INn

Prerequisite Activities for the EIS


Information needs

Information technology standards


Corporate data model

Analysis of organization

Information systems plan

Production and performance systems

EIS