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Decisions Analysis

Presented By: Afzal Waseem Presented To: Dr. Arnold Yuan

Decisions Analysis
Decision analysis provides a framework and methodology for rational decision making when the outcomes are uncertain

A PROTOTYPE EXAMPLE
The GOFERBROKE COMPANY owns a tract of land that may contain oil. A consulting geologist has reported to management that she believes there is 1 chance in 4 of oil. Because of this prospect, another oil company has offered to purchase the land for $90,000. However, Goferbroke is considering holding the land in order to drill for oil itself. The cost of drilling is $100,000. If oil is found, the resulting expected revenue will be $800,000, so the companys expected profit (after deducting the cost of drilling) will be $700,000. A loss of $100,000 (the drilling cost) will be incurred if the land is dry (no oil)

DECISSION MAKING WITHOUT EXPERIMENTATION

1. The Maximin payoff criteria


For each possible action, find the minimum payoff over all possible states of nature. Next, find the maximum of these minimum payoffs. Choose the action whose minimum payoff Gives this maximum.

Disadvantages
Pessimistic view point Best guaranteed payoff The action which provides the best payoff with its worst state of nature.
Nature is not a malevolent opponent, This is especially true when the worst possible Payoff from an action comes from a relatively Unlikely state of nature
Does not include the effect of prior probabilities it in

Interested only for a very cautious decision maker

2. Maximum Likelihood Criterion

Maximum likelihood criterion: Identify the most likely state of nature (the one with the largest prior probability). For this state of nature, find the action with the maximum payoff. Choose this action.

2. Maximum Likelihood Criterion

2. Maximum Likelihood Criterion Drawbacks


No state of nature is considered other than the most likely one In a problem with many possible states of nature, the probability of the most likely one may be quite small, so focusing on just this one state of nature is quite unwarranted Ignores the extremely attractive payoff of 700 if the company drills and finds oil.

3. Bayes Decision Rule


1. Using the best available estimates of the probabilities of the respective states of nature (currently the prior probabilities), 2. Calculate the expected value of the payoff for each of the possible actions. 3. Choose the action with the maximum expected payoff

3. Bayes Decision Rule

3. Bayes Decision Rule ADVANTAGES


It incorporates all the available information 1. Payoffs 2. Prior Probabilities of states of nature

It is sometimes argued that these estimates of the probabilities necessarily are largely subjective and so are too shaky to be trusted. There is no accurate way of predicting the future, including a future state of nature, even in probability terms

To assess the effect of possible inaccuracies in THE PRIOR PROBABILITIES, it often is helpful to conduct sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity Analysis with Bayes Decision Rule


To study the effect if some of the numbers included in the mathematical model are not correct 1. most questionable are the prior probabilities 2. similar approach could be applied to the payoffs

Sensitivity Analysis with Bayes Decision Rule


GOFERBROKES MANAGEMENT true prior probability 1. Oil 0.15 to 0.35 2. Dry 0.85 to 0.65 sum of the two prior probabilities must equal 1
Application of Bayes decision rule twice Oil = 0.15 Dry = 0.85 Expected payoff (Selling) = 90 Expected Payoff (Drill) = 20 Oil = 0.35 Dry = 0.65 Expected Payoff (Drill) = 180 Expected payoff (Selling) = 90 DRILL

SELL

Oil p = 0.15 Expected Payoff (Drill) = 20 Dry = 0.85 Expected payoff (Selling) = 90

0.15 - 0.35

Oil p = 0.35 Expected Payoff (Drill) = 180 Dry = 0.65 Expected payoff (Selling) = 90

Sensitivity Analysis with Bayes Decision Rule

With more than two lines, there might be more than one crossover point where the decision shifts from one alternative to another

DECISION MAKING WITH EXPERIMENTATION


Frequently, additional testing (experimentation) can be done to improve the preliminary estimates of the probabilities of the respective states of nature provided by the prior probabilities. These Improved estimates are called posterior probabilities

1) how to derive the posterior probabilities !!! 2) how to decide whether to conduct experimentation or not !!!

DECISION MAKING WITH EXPERIMENTATION

Test Results
DRY

OIL

how to derive the posterior probabilities !!!


Bayes theorem

e.g DRY and OIL are 2 number of states


e.g 0.25 and 0.75 are the prior probabilities here

Past experience probabilities of findings from experimentation result as in previous slide

how to derive the posterior probabilities !!!

Unfavourable Seismic Surrounding

0.80.75 6 = = 0.80.75 + 0.40.25 7

how to derive the posterior probabilities !!!

Favourable Seismic Surrounding

0.20.75 1 = = 0.20.75 + 0.60.25 2

PROBABILITY TREE DIAGRAM

It shows a nice way of organizing these calculations in an intuitive manner.

PROBABILITY TREE DIAGRAM

Expected Payoff`s

how to decide whether to conduct experimentation or not !!!


1. Expected Value of Perfect Information 2. Expected Value of Experimentation

Expected Value of Perfect Information


The first method assumes (unrealistically) that the experiment will remove all uncertainty about what the true state of nature is, and then this method makes a very quick calculation of what the resulting improvement in the expected payoff would be (ignoring the cost of the experiment). This quantity, called the expected value of perfect information.

Expected Value of Perfect Information

Since 142.5 far exceeds 30, the cost of experimentation (a seismic survey), it may be worthwhile to proceed with the seismic survey. To find out for sure, we now go to the second method of evaluating the potential benefit of experimentation

Expected Value of Experimentation


find all the posterior probabilities excluding the cost of the experiment

Chance fork

Decision Fork