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Power sector challenges & growth

Introduction
The power sector in India has undergone significant progress after Independence. In 1947, the country had a power generating capacity of 1,362 MW. Hydro power and coal based thermal power have been the main sources of generating electricity. Generation and distribution of electrical power was carried out primarily by private utility companies. After independence, the sector came under the purview of State and Central government bodies and SEBs were formed in all the states under the provisions by The Electricity(Supply) Act, 1948. Subsequently, NTPC, NHPC, PGCIL etc. were also formed to assist the government to meet the increasing demands of electricity. The balance of payment crisis of 90s and LPG (liberalization, privatization and, globalization) invited the private players in the industry to promote competition and efficiency.

Schematic of the Indian Power Sector Pre -1991


Ministry of Power Govt. of India Central Electricity Authority
(Technical Analysis and approval of Projects)

Planning Commission (Planning)

Public Sector Corporations NTPC NHPC PGCL PFC REC

State Electricity Boards

State
(Ministry of Power)

Single arrow means ----> flow of command, ===Double arrow means flow of information, finance or electricity

Regulation
MoP regulated generation and transmission and tariffs CEA regulated clearances for generation and transmission infrastructure State Government regulated SEB/Licensee tariffs and provided IPP approvals

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

NTPC NHPC

PGCIL State Electricity Boards


Owned and operated bulk of distribution
Publ ic own ersh ip

State Electricity Boards

State Electricity Boards

Pvt. Licensees

Pvt. Licensees

Pvt. Licensees

Private owner ship

Industry Structure Pre Electricity Act 2003

Centre
Policy
Plan Regulations Generation Transmission System Operators
Ministry of Power CEA CERC CGS, Mega Power Projects CTU
Transmission Licensee GENCOS

State
State Government

SERC
IPP

STU

Transmission Licensee

NLDC

RLDC

SLDC Distribution Licensee

Private generation distribution companies

Distribution Trading Appeal


Trading Licensee Appellate Tribunal

Trading Licensee

Evolving Industry Structure

Power sector scenario


As on 30-04-2012 Source: CEA

Source of Generation
Thermal Nuclear Hydro R.E.S.

Thermal Generation fuel wise

12% 19% 66% 3%

14%

1% Coal Gas Oil 85%

Renewable Energy Sources(RES) include SHP, BG, BP, U&I and Wind Energy SHP= Small Hydro Project ,BG= Biomass Gasifier ,BP= Biomass Power, U & I=Urban & Industrial Waste Power, RES=Renewable Energy Sources

Installed capacity scenario region-wise in MWs


North Eastern, 2455
Islands, 76

Eastern , 26885
Northern, 54585 Southern, 52739

Western, 64894

Total Installed capacity


As on 30-04-2012 Source: CEA Sector State Sector MW 85,918 % 42.61

Central Sector
Private Total

60,182
55,535 2,01,637

29.84
27.54 99.99

55,535 27%

85,918 43%

State Central Private

60,182 30%

Rural electrification as on 30-03-2012


Source: CEA 1. Total No. of Villages 2. No. of villages Electrified 3. % of Villages Electrified 5,93,732 5,56,633 93.8%

4. Potential of Energ. of Pumps 5. No. of Pump sets Energised 6. % of Pump sets Energised

1,95,94,000 1,81,78,136 92.8%

All India Annual per Capita consumption of Electricity


(As per U. N. methodology) source: CEA
900 800 700 779

600
500 400 300 200 100 0

592

612.5

631.5

671.9

717.1

734.5

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09 2009-2010

Per Capita Consumption (kWh)

Problems confronting the power sector


Inadequate generation capacity. Lack of optimum utilization of existing generation capacity. Environmental factors and delay in environmental clearances. Inadequate IRTS links. Large scaled theft and skewed tariff structure. Inefficient use of electricity by the end consumer. Low pace of rural electrification. Political interferences in nuclear power. Government giveaways such as free electricity for farmers have depleted the cash reserves of state-run electricity-distribution system. Shortages of fuel.

The giant new offshore natural gas field has delivered less fuel than projected. India faces a shortage of natural gas. Average transmission, distribution and consumer-level losses exceeding 30%. Countrys coal-fired, oil-fired and natural gas-fired thermal power plants are inefficient and run at low PLF. Lack of clean and reliable energy sources .

Generation
Power generation in India is largely dependent on coal, natural gas, hydroelectric power generation. Non conventional energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal etc. contribute little in the total power generation. Captive power plants are mainly diesel or gas based because of their lower gestation period and starting time. Inadequacy of generation has characterized power sector operation in India. To provide availability of over 1000 units of per capita electricity by year 2012 it had been estimated that need based capacity addition of more than 1,00,000 MW would be required during the period 2002-12.

Coal

Source: Geological survey of India

As a result of exploration carried out up to the maximum depth of 1200m by the GSI, CMPDI, SCCL and MECL etc, a cumulative total of 285862.21 Million Tonnes of Geological Resources of Coal have so far been estimated in the country as on 1.4.2011. (A) : GONDWANA COALFIELDS :Geological sources of Coal Proved 1,13,407 Indicated 1,37,371 Inferred 33,590 Total 2,84,369

(B) : TERTIARY COALFIELDS :Geological sources of Coal Proved 593 Indicated 99.34 Inferred (Exploration) 49.57 Inferred (Mapping) 749.92 Total 1492.64

TYPE AND CATEGORY-WISE COAL RESOURCES OF INDIA


The Type and Category-wise coal resources of India as on 1.4.2011 are given in table below :-

Type of Coal Coking 1. Prime Coking 2. Medium Coking 3. Semi Coking Sub-Total Coking
Non-Coking Tertiary Coal Grand Total

Proved
4,614 2,572 4,82 17,669 95,738 5,93.81 1,14,001.60

Indicated
6,98 12,001 1,003 13,703 12,368 99.34 1,37,471.10

(in million tonnes) source: GSI Inferred Total 0 1,880 2,21 2,101 31,488 7,99.49* 34,389.51 5,313 26,454 1,707 33,474 2,50,895 1,492 2,85,862.21

* Includes 749.92 M.T. of Inferred resources established through mapping in North-Eastern region.

Trends in Production of Coal


source: www.mospi.gov.in

Year
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Coal
(million tonnes) 4,07 4,57 4,57

Installed Capacity (in MW) 1,24,287 1,32,329 1,43,061

2008-09
2009-10 2010-11
Growth rate of 2010-11 over 2009-10(%)

4,92
5,32 5,32 0.12

1,47,965
1,59,398 1,73,626 8.93

Coal production by CIL


Source: www.coal.nic.in FY 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Actual Production in million tonne 431.26 431.32 435.84 Growth % .013% 1%

2012-13 (projected) 470

Coal dispatch to power sector by CIL


Sector
Power ( Utility )* Power( Captive)

Apr10-Dec10
220.99 24.55

Apr09-Dec09
217.88 23.97 241.85

% growth
1.43 2.42 1.53

Power ( Utility & CPPs) 245.54

Domestic coal based power plants, which accounts for 70% of total requirement of coal of the country, have lost generation due to shortage of fuel on account of constrained supply by CIL.

All India Coal Consumption for Power Generation (Utilities)


Coal consumption in Million Tonne
Coal consumption in Million Tonne 302 330 355 367 387 415

253

263

278

280

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-2010

2010-11

2011-12

Constrained supply of coal by CIL


The output of the Maharatna firm remained stagnant for the last two years which is often attributed to lack of forest and environment clearances. In FY 2010-2011, its production was 431 million tonne. CIL produces 436 mt currently and plans to enhance this capacity to 464 mt by the end of the FY 2012-13. It has also earmarked a supply of 347 mt for the power sector. Shortage of coal and gas had caused a power generation loss to the tune of 9 billion units and 11 billion units, respectively, during FY 2011-12.

Plant Load Factor trend showing the inefficiency of the power plants
PLF
80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69

78.6 76.8 74.8 73.6 72.7 77.2 77.48 75.07 PLF

72.81

Environmental issues
source:http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_coal-mining-centre-dumps-go-no-go-dubs-it-illegal_1589631

Two years ago govt. had divided coal mining zones into go and no-go a move that stalled almost every big-ticket coal mining project in India the government is scrapping the policy. According to Planning Commission data, the power sector alone was losing potential production of 143,000 MW of power due to the MoEF policy. THE NO-GO GHOST IN NUMBERS Total coal bearing area in India (sq km) Total geological coal reserve (BT) Coal bearing area out of total forest area(%) Power need met by coal (%) Total no of coal blocks in India No of blocks identified in No-Go Spread over in area(sq km) Annual production potential (MT) Equivalent power generation capacity (MW)
Source: Coal ministry

17,300 2,77 0.16 70 6,02 2,03 3,039 6,60 1,30,000

Environmental issues in NEP


Environmental concerns would be suitably addressed through appropriate advance action by way of comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessment and implementation of Environment Action Plan (EAP). Steps would be taken for coordinating the efforts for streamlining the procedures in regard to grant of environmental clearances including setting up of Land Bank and Forest Bank. Appropriate catchment area treatment for hydro projects would also be ensured and monitored. Setting up of coal washeries will be encouraged. Suitable steps would also be taken so that utilization of fly ash is ensured as per environmental guidelines. Setting up of municipal solid waste energy projects in urban areas and recovery of energy from industrial effluents will also be encouraged with a view to reducing environmental pollution apart from generating additional energy. Full compliance with prescribed environmental norms and standards must be achieved in operations of all generating plants.

Natural Gas
India has total reserves (proved & indicated) of 757 million metric tonnes of crude oil and1241 billion cubic metres of natural gas as on 1.4.2011. Gross Production of Natural Gas in the country at 52.22 billion cubic metres during 2010-11 is 9.95% higher than the production of 47.50 billion cubic metres during 2009-10.

The installed capacity of gas based power stations as on 30-04-2012 is 18381.05 MW, accounting for around 10 % of the total installed capacity .

Gas supply constraints


source:http://business-standard.com/india/news/no-new-gas-based-power-plant-to-be-settill-2015-16-cea/161405/on

The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has said no new gas-based power plants will be set up in the country till 2015-16, as the natural gas output is expected to fall considerably. As per Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas reports India's natural gas production is likely to fall by 35 per cent to 27.64 million metric standard cubic metre per day (mmscmd) in the next fiscal and may further dip by another 12 per cent to 24.22 mmscmd in 2013-14.

Hydroelectric Power Generation


India is 6th largest generator of hydroelectric power with an installed capacity of 39 GW. India is endowed with economically exploitable and viable hydro potential assessed to be about 84,000 MW at 60% load factor. In addition, 6780 MW in terms of installed capacity from Small, Mini, and Micro Hydel schemes have been assessed. Also, 56 sites for pumped storage schemes with an aggregate installed capacity of 94,000 MW have been identified. It is the most widely used form of renewable energy. India is blessed with immense amount of hydroelectric potential and ranks 5th in terms of exploitable hydropotential on global scenario.

Constraints in hydro power plants


Hydel power projects are risky on the basis of following factors: political and environmental protests, delay / cancellation of environmental clearances, delays in land acquisition, poor infrastructure, tunnelling delays, geological surprises, contractual and procurement issues, shortage of skilled man power, difficulties in evacuation of power, etc. Another constraint in hydel power project is hydrology. The Himalayan glaciers are more susceptible to non linear changes to climate. Hence, past data of hydrology cant be reliable. Hydroelectric power projects in India's mountainous north and northeast regions have been slowed down by ecological, environmental and rehabilitation controversies, coupled with public interest litigations.

Nuclear Energy
Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydroelectric and renewable sources of energy. As of April 2012, India has 20 nuclear reactors in operation in six nuclear power plants, generating 4,780 MW while seven other reactors are under construction and are expected to generate an additional 5,300 MW. India's domestic uranium reserves are small and the country is dependent on uranium imports to fuel its nuclear power industry. Since early 1990s, Russia has been a major supplier of nuclear fuel to India. Due to dwindling domestic uranium reserves, electricity generation from nuclear power in India declined by 12.83% from 2006 to 2008. Following a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group in September 2008 which allowed it to commence international nuclear trade, India has signed bilateral deals on civilian nuclear energy technology cooperation with several other countries including UK, USA, Canada etc.

Nuclear Power constraints


Dependency on other nations for fuel. Political activism after fukushima disaster.

Transmission & Distribution


The electrical power generated in the power stations reaches the end user through complex transmission networks, which comprises of transformers, overhead lines, cables and other equipments which facilitates the transmission of electricity. The amount of energy generated does not matches with the energy distributed and the energy billed. The reason behind this are the losses in the transmission and distribution networks. This is known as technical losses, which are difficult to eliminate completely. Apart from this there are some commercial losses because of theft, errors in metering etc. The technical and commercial losses are called as Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT & C) loss collectively.

Power losses trend


T & D Losses
35 30 25
32.53 31.25

AT & C Losses
40

30.42 28.65 27.2 25.47 25.39

35
30 25 20 15 10 5 0

34.78

34.33

33.02 30.62 29.45

27.74

27.15

20
15 10 5 0

All India T & D losses

All India AT & C losses

Reasons for AT & C losses


Technical Losses:

Overloading of existing lines and substation equipments Absence of up gradation of old lines and equipments Low HT: LT ratio Poor repair and Maintenance of equipments Non-installation of sufficient capacitors
Low metering/billing/collection efficiency Theft & pilferage and tampering of meters Low accountability of employees Absence of Energy Accounting & Auditing

Commercial Losses:

Cost of power supply and realization


Average cost of power supply & average realization ( paise/kWh )
Cost of supply (paise/unit) Including Agriculture Only Agriculture 341 276
227

354

293
262 239 268

239
203

254
209

260
221

72.39

75.68

76.36

74.23

77.27

85.26

89.05

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

Rural electrification pace in India


source: CEA

Total inhabited villages as per 2001 census - 593015 Villages electrified as on 31-03-2011 - 546482

No. of Villages Electrified in the year


Villages Electrified 22594

12632 8629 3884 5743 8072

2781

3684

Energy efficiency
National Productivity Council (NPC), an autonomous organization under the Ministry of Commerce, Government of India, was asked by BEE to undertake the study of energy saving potential in all 35 states / UTs. The study focused only on estimation of the total electricity consumption and saving potential in different sectors of each state / UT. The potential for savings is about 15% of the electricity consumption. The sector wise aggregated potential at the national level is as under: S. No. Sector 1. 2. Agriculture Pumping Commercial Buildings/ Establishments with connected load > 500 KW Municipalities Domestic Industry (Including SMEs) Total Consumption (Billion KWh) 92.33 9.92 Saving Potential (Billion KWh) 27.79 1.98

3. 4. 5.

12.45 120.92 265.38 501.00

2.88 24.16 18.57 75.36

Strength and Opportunities in the power sector


Abundant Coal reserve- ranks 4th in production worldwide Vast hydroelectric potential- ranks 7th in installed capacity worldwide Large pool of skilled human resource Impressive power development in absolute terms Expertise in integrated and coordinated planning (CEA & MoP) Strong and globally competitive central utilities(NTPC,PGCIL,NHPC etc.) Evolving framework for private investments. Well defined mechanism for dispute resolution (SERCs, CERCs, appellate tribunal etc.) Political consensus on reforms. One of the largest power market, potentially.

Coal reserves in India


India has some of the largest reserves of coal in the world (approx. 285 billion tonnes). The top coal producing states are: Orissa (76712 MT of total coal reserve) Chhattisgarh (44483 MT of total coal reserve) Jharkhand (65227 MT coal reserve) The other notable coal mining areas are Singareni collieries in Khammam district, AP Jharia mines in Dhanbad district, Jharkhand Nagpur and Chandrapur district, Maharashtra Raniganj in Brahman district, West Bengal Nevyeli lignite mines in Cuddalore district, Tamil Nadu Singrauli Coalfield and Umaria Coalfield in Madhya Pradesh

Hydroelectric potential in India


The country is blessed with immense potential for hydroelectric energy and ranks 5th in terms of exploitable hydro power. The assessed potential basin wise is given as follows: source: NHPC
River/Basin Indus Basin Ganga Basin Central Indian River system Western Flowing Rivers of southern India Eastern Flowing Rivers of southern India Brahmaputra Basin Total Probable Installed Capacity 33,832 20,711 4,152 9,430 14,511 66,065 1,48,701

In addition, 56 number of pumped storage projects have also been identified with probable installed capacity of 94,000 MW. In addition to this, hydro-potential from small, mini & micro schemes has been estimated as 6,782 MW from 1,512 sites. Thus, in totality India is endowed with hydro-potential of about 2,50,000 MW.

12th Plan Additional Manpower Requirement


For a capacity addition of 94,215 MW(including renewable) in the 12th Plan, the additional manpower requirement shall be of the order of 407 thousands out of which 312 thousands will be technical and 94 thousands will be non-technical. The total manpower by the end of 12th Plan shall be 1425 thousands, out of which 1083 thousands (76%) will be technical and 341 thousands (24%) will be non-technical. A summary of likely manpower at the end of 11th, 12th & 13th Plan is furnished in the following table.

Sl. No

Plan

Capacity at the beginning of Plan

Capacity addition during Plan*

Capacity at the end of Plan

Manpow er at the beginning of Plan

Reduced Manpower due to retirement etc.

Manpower required for Capacity addition of Plan

Manpower at the end of Plan

Man/M W at the end of Plan

1. 2. 3.

11th 1,32,330 12th 2,06,704 13th 3,00,919

74,374 94,215

2,06,704 9,50 3,00,919 1,163

8,31 1,018 1,247

3,31 4,07 5,47

1,163 1,425 1,795

5.63 4.74 4.23

1,23,900 4,24,819 1,425

ELECTRICITY GENERATION PERFORMANCE


The electricity generation target for the year 2011-2012 was fixed as 855 Billion Unit (BU). i.e. growth of around 5.4% over actual generation of 811.143 for the previous year (2010-2011). The generation during Dec, 2011 was 72.718 BU as compared to 67.328 BU generated during Dec 2010, representing a growth of about 8.02%.
Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(up to Dec 2011 Tentative) Target 710.0 774.09 789.511 830.757 639.029 Achievement 704.5 723.8 771.551 811.143 653.446 Source: CEA % growth 6.3 2.74 6.6 5.56 9.23

% of target 99.2 93.47 97.73 97.64 102.26

Growth Rate
The growth rate of energy generation in the country since 2000-01 is given below:
Plan IX Plan X Plan Year 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 XI Plan 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Generation (BU) 515.3 531.6 558.3 587.4 617.5 662.5 704.5 723.8 771.2 811.1 Annual Growth(%) 3.1 3.2 5.0 5.2 5.1 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.6 5.55 5.17 Source: CEA CAGR(%)

* Generation during 2010-11 excludes generation from plants up to 25 MW Capacity.

FDI in Power Sector


source:http://dipp.nic.in/English/Publications/FDI_Statistics/FDI_Statistics.aspx

Power sector ranks 2nd in absolute terms and ranks 8th percentage wise among highest FDI attracting sectors after service industry. The following table shows the FDI in power sector in India.
Amount in Rs. crores (US$ in million) Sector 2010-11 (April-March) 2011-12 ( April- March) 2012-13 ( for April, 2012) Cumulative Inflows (April 00-April12) % age to total Inflows (In terms of US$)

POWER

5,796 (1,272)

7,678 (1,652)

355 (68)

33,569 (7,367)

4%

Power market scenario in India


Long term power market of about 90% till Jan, 2012. Short term power market size 9.93% by Jan, 2012. FDI open in all sectors i.e. generation, transmission and, distribution. About 1.6 billion $ FDI. Two power exchanges (IEX & PXIL). 50 number of licensed traders. Power market regulated by Power Market Regulations, 2010.

Opportunities in the Indian power sector


Strong growth in generation capacity led by per capita consumption, Chart Title urbanization.
GDP growth Rate (%) Electricity Growth rate

Peak Demand (MW)

Demand met(MW)

6.3 2.7

6.6

5.6 8.5

6.9

109

91

110

118
97

103

119

128
104

9.3
114

6.8

7.6

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

Alternative source of energy


TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT 2011 DATA TABLE. $BN 2004 1.3 2005 2.7 2006 3.8 2007 5.1 2008 4.1 2009 3.0 2010 3.8 2009-10 Growth% 25 2004-2010 CAGR % 19

Renewable Energy Investment Source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP


Investment in BN$ 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.3 4.1 3 3.8 2009-10 growth rate 25% CAGR 19 %

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Investment in clean technology Opportunity in power evacuation

Target for 12th five year plan - Power for all


Source: NEP, CEA

Generation addition program The total capacity addition requirement in the country for 12 Plan has been proposed as under:
th

Total Capacity (excluding renewable) - 79,690 MW


Hydro - 9,204 MW Nuclear - 2,800 MW Thermal - 67,786 MW
Coal - 66,600 MW Gas - 1,086 MW

Power supply position in the country 2011-12


Particulars Requirement Availability Surplus(+)/Shortage (-) Surplus(+)/Shortage(-) % Energy ( MU) 933741 837374 -96367 -10.3% Peak (MW) 136193 118676 -17517 -12.9%

Major power sector constraints for 9% growth rate


Indian Economy has witnessed rapid growth in the past decade and to sustain a similar growth trajectory of 9%, power sector needs to grow at atleast 8.1 % per annum Planning commission Fuel shortage Financing constraints Poor financial health status of DISCOMs Poor cost reflective tariff structure

Growth of transmission sector since 6th five year plan


A. Transmission Lines in circuit kilometers
At the end of 400 kV Transmission lines Central 6th Plan 1,831 State 4,198 Pvt. /JV Total 6,029 220 kV Transmission lines Central 1,641 State 44,364 Pvt. /JV Total 46,005

7th Plan
8th Plan

13,068
23,001

6,756
13,141

19,824
36,142

4,560
6,564

55,071
73,036

59,631
79,600

9th Plan
10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan Up to April 12

29,345
48,708 75,889 76,384

20,033
24,730 31,873 31,873 2,284 5,605 5,605

49,378
75,722 1,13,367 1,13,862

8,687
9,444 10,387 10,393

88,306
1,05,185 1,28,947 1,29,078 8,30 8,30

96,993
1,14,629 1,40,164 1,40,301

B. Sub-Station (MVA)
At the end of Central 6th Plan 7th Plan 8th Plan 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 7,15 6,760 17,340 23,575 40,455 77,225 400kV substations 220 kV substations

State 8,615 14,820 23,525 36,805 52,487 73,172

Pvt./ JV

Total 9,330 21,580 40,865 60,380 92,942

Central 5,00 1,881 2,566 2,866 4,276 6,436

State 36,791 51,861 81,611 1,13,497 1,52,221 2,15,771

Pvt./ JV

Total 37,291 53,742 84,177 1,16,363 1,56,497

6,30

1,51,027

1,567

2,23,774

12th Plan Up to April 12

77,225

73,487

6,30

1,51,342

6,436

2,17,936

1,567

2,25,939

Growth of transmission sector as on 30-04-2012


source: CEA Central Sector State Sector Private Sector Total

Transmission Lines in (ckm.)


765kV 5319 411 5730

400kV
220kV +/- 500 kV HVDC Lines (ckm)

76384
10393 5948

31873
129078 1504

5605
830 1980

113862
140301 9432

Sub-stations (MVA)
765kV 400kV 220kV +/- 500 kV HVDC Lines 24000 77225 6436 1000 73487 217936 630 1567 25000 151342 225939 -

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