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Differenced Once

Differenced Twice

1989

1990

1991

1992

-10^9
-2*10^9

-2*10^9

2*10^9

-10^9

4*10^9

10^9

6*10^9

10^9

2*10^9

No Differencing

WtVwKW3mma0r<VKI \tt kg {mVm#t

1993

Series : Autocorrelation

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Series : Partial.Autocorrelation

1.0

ARIMA Model Diagnostics: Order.221x220

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

0.8

1.0

ACF Plot of Residuals

-0.2

-0.4

0.4
-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

-0.3

ACF

0.6

0.2

ACF

0.4

Partial ACF
-0.2
-0.1

-2

-1

0.6

0.0

0.8

0.1

Plot of Standardized Residuals

0.0

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Lag

Lag

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Lag

IVt)
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0.6

0.6

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0.4

0.2

0.2

0.4

Wgk{tVQm#UxK stgVt Vm]VI# Kr IVIokttI

0.0

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0.0

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-0.5

P-value for Goodness of Fit Statistic

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Lag

a mV
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ARIMA Forecast Compared to Observed Data, July 1992 to June 1993

Weekly packet totals
ARIMA forecast, from data through June 1992

4*10^9

5*10^9

Weekly Packet Totals, All Nodes

4*10^9

Weekly Packet Totals, All Nodes

2*10^9

6*10^9

7*10^9

Weekly packet totals

ARIMA forecast, from data through June 1992

6*10^9

8*10^9

ARIMA Forecast Compared to Observed Data, July 1992 to June 1993

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1992
Jun

1992
Jul

1992
Jul

1992
Aug

1992
Sep

1992
Oct

1992
Nov

1992
Dec

1993
Jan

1993
Feb

1993
Mar

1993
Apr

1993
May

Weekly packet totals

ARIMA forecast, from data through June 1993

10^10

1.2*10^10

ARIMA Forecast July 1993 to June 1994

8*10^9

1993

6*10^9

1992

4*10^9

1991

2*10^9

[tt


1990

1989

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1993
Jun

6*10^9

8*10^9

10^10

Observed packet totals through June, 1993

Forecasting 1 year in advance,
from data through June 1993
Forecasting 2 years in advance,
from data through June 1992

4*10^9

Weekly Packet Totals, All Nodes

1.2*10^10

Forecasting Two Years Ahead

1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1993 1994 1994 1994
May
Jul
Aug
Oct
Dec
Jan
Mar
Apr
Jun
Aug Sep Nov
Jan
Feb
Apr
May

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