Om FERGUSON ESTSELLING AUTHOR THE PITY OF WAHISTORY “Quite brilliant, inspiring for the layman and an enviable tour de force for the informed reader....A wonderful book... lucid, exciting and easy to read.” mT POSS Ale conrad Se ee eet eC eee ee tO ea What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if POET GE Bocra om hat Ase ete ToM CURIE. Rae asta (CCMA ete stm CBr ei Betern Mom er mec the Soviet Union? What if the Russians had won the Cold War? What a CT hae OMA ee cM Lo melo Ce itads This book is a delightful but historically rigorous series of separate voyages into “imag- inary time” and provides intriguing, far-reaching answers to these questions. Virtwal History features contributions from talented, imaginative and well-regarded historians, Fe aN Berta ere Teese een tec Cet a Cena er tteer es defense of the methodology of counterfactual history and offers a convincing justifica- eee et Cece Scere ee es aren ee eee ee ee eee ripples that would have proceeded from the maintenance of Stuart rule in England. This breathtaking narrative paints a picture of our world that is convincingly skewed: from the accession of “James III” in 1701 and a Nazi-occupied England, to U.S. Prime Minister Kennedy whe lives to complete his term and the “Sultan of Baghdad” Saddam Hussein. Niall Ferguson is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at Jesus College, Oxford. He is the author of Paper and Iron, The House of Rothschilds and Basic’s own The Pity of War. “The implications of Virtual History deserve to be meditated by every historia cy Ce CURE De eR a CCU mcrae Tumi oe Cece Coa Card cee e eaten ame tint a etn OC ee tt ew re rey US $17.50 ISBN 0-4b5-0 3 A Member of the Perseus Books Group 547 5.0) hutp://www.basicbooks.com iVIRTUAL HISTORY Niall Ferguson is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at Jesus College, Oxford. He recently published Paper and Iron: Hamburg Business and German Politics in the Eva of Inflation 1897-1927 which was shortlisted for the History Today Book of the Year award, He has also written numerous articles on nineteenth- and twentieth-century financial history, including a critique of Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace and is the author of a history of the Rothschilds. A prolific commentator on contemporary politics, he lives with his wife and two children in Oxfordshire.VIRTUAL HISTORY: Alternatives el Ce EDITED BY Niall Ferguson BASIC BOOKS A Member of the Perseus Books GroupVirtual History was first published in hardcover in Great Britain by Picador in 1997. The Basic Books edition is reprinted by arrangement with Papermac, an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Led. This collection copyright © Niall Ferguson 1997 Published 1999 by Basic Books, A Member of the Perseus Books Group. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be re- produced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address Basic Books, 10 East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022-5299. ‘Typeset by CentraCet, Cambridge A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN 0-465-02323-1 010203 1098765432CONTENTS Contributors Acknowledgements INTRODUCTION Virtual History: Towards a ‘chaotic’ theory of the past Niall Ferguson 1. ENGLAND WITHOUT CROMWELL: What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? John Adamson 2. BRITISH AMERICA: What if there had been no American Revolution? J.C.D. Clark 3. BRITISH IRELAND: What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? Alvin Jackson 4. THE KAISER’S EUROPEAN UNION: What if Britain had ‘stood aside’ in August 1914? Niall Ferguson vii 91 125 175 2285, HITLER’S ENGLAND: What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? 281 Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson 6. NAZI EUROPE: What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? 321 Michael Burleigh 7. STALIN’S WAR OR PEACE: What if the Cold War had been avoided? 348 Jonathan Haslam 8. CAMELOT CONTINUED: What if John F. Kennedy had lived? 368 Diane Kunz 9. 1989 WITHOUT GORBACHEV: What if Communism had not collapsed? 392 Mark Almond AFTERWORD: A Virtual History, 1646-1996 416 Niall Ferguson Notes 441 Index 539Contributors Niatt Fercuson is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at Jesus College, Oxford. He recently published Paper and Iron: Hamburg Business and German Politics in the Era of Inflation 1897-1927 (1995), which was shortlisted for the History Today Book of the Year award. He has written numerous articles on nineteenth- and twentieth-century financial history, and is cur- rently writing a history of Rothschilds. Joun Apamson is a Fellow of Peterhouse, Cambridge, and has published extensively on the political and cultural history of seventeenth-century Britain. He won the Royal Historical Society’s Alexander Prize in 1990, and is currently editing the official history of The Commons: 1640-1660 for the History of Parliament Trust. JoNaTHAN CLarK is Joyce and Elizabeth Hall Distinguished Professor of British History at the University of Kansas. His publications include The Dynamics of Change (1982), English Society 1688-1832 (1985), Revolution and Rebellion (1986), The Language of Liberty, 1660-1832: Political Discourse and Social Dynamics in the Anglo-American World (1993) and Samuel John- son: Literature, Religion and English Cultural Politics from the Restoration to Romanticism (1994). He has edited The Memoirs and Speeches of James, 2nd Earl Waldegrave 1742-1763 (1988) and Ideas and Politics in Modern Britain (1989).CONTRIBUTORS ......... ALvin Jackson is Reader in Modern History at the Queen’s University of Belfast, and has been Lecturer in Modern Irish History at University College Dublin and John Burns Visiting Professor of Irish Studies at Boston College. He is author of The Ulster Party (1989), Sir Edward Carson (1993) and Colonel Edward Saunderson: Land and Loyalty in Victorian Ireland (1995). He is at present working on the Blackwell History of Modern Ireland. ANDREW Roserts was an Honorary Senior Scholar at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge. His books include The Holy Fox, A Biography of Lord Halifax (1991), Eminent Churchillians (1994) and The Aachen Memorandum (1995). He is currently writing the authorized biography of the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury. Micuakt BuRLeiGH is Distinguished Research Professor of History at the University of Wales, Cardiff. His books include Prussian Society and the German Order (1984), Germany Turns Eastwards: A Study of ‘Ostforschung’ in the Third Reich (1988), The Racial State: Germany 1933-1945 (with Wolfgang Wipper- mann, 1991), Death and Deliverance: ‘Euthanasia’ in Germany, 1900-1945 (1994) and Confronting the Nazi Past (1996). His essays, Ethics and Extermination: Essays on Nazi Genocide will be published shortly. His award-winning Channel 4 Documentaries include Selling Murder and Heil Herbie. JonatHaNn Haszam is a Fellow and Director of Studies in History at Corpus Christi College, Cambridge, and Assistant Director of Studies in International Relations at the Cambridge University Centre of International Studies. He is the author of The Soviet Union and the Struggle for Collective Security in Europe 1933-1939 (1984) and The Soviet Union and the Threat from the East 1933-1941 (1992). He has recently completed a biography of E.H. Carr and is currently writing The Realist Tradition in International Relations: from Machiavelli to Waltz. Vii ne.. CONTRIBUTORS Diane Kunz is Associate Professor of History at Yale Univer- sity. She is the author of The Battle for Britain’s Gold Standard in 1931 (1987) and The Economic Diplomacy of the Suez Crisis (1991). Her most recent book is Butter and Guns: America’s Cold War Economic Diplomacy. Mark ALmonp is Lecturer in Modern History at Oriel College, Oxford. His most recent book is Revolution: 500 Years of Struggle for Change (1996). His other books include Europe’s Backyard War: the War in the Balkans (1994) and The Rise and Fall of Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu (1992).Acknowledgements In a collaborative volume, it is for individual contributors to express their gratitude in their notes. The editor, however, has the right to a list of acknowledgements in a larger typeface. I would like to express my thanks to: the Modern History Faculty, Oxford; the Acting Principal and Fellows of Jesus College, Oxford; my agent, Georgina Capel, of Simpson, Fox Associates; Peter Straus and Tanya Stobbs, my editors at Macmillan; Glen O’Hara of Jesus College, Oxford, for his indispensable assistance with the research for both the introduction and my chapter; and Vivien Bowyer at Jesus College, Oxford. I am especially indebted for their comments on my sections of the book to Dr Christopher Andrew of Corpus Christi College, Cambridge; Professor Jona- than Clark of the University of Kansas; Professor Roy Foster of Oxford University; Dr Jonathan Steinberg of Trinity Hall, Cam- bridge; Dr John Stevenson of Worcester College, Oxford; and Professor Norman Stone of Oxford University. Many other friends and colleagues too numerous to name have assisted me by patiently fielding questions about the theory and practice of counterfactual history over coffee, lunch and dinner. Above all, I would like to thank my wife Susan for providing inspiration.