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Trab Inf Bayes - Vitoria
Trab Inf Bayes - Vitoria
Presidente Prudente
2020
1
Sumário
1. Introdução ............................................................................................................ 3
2. Objetivo ................................................................................................................ 3
3. Dados ................................................................................................................... 3
4. Distribuição Exponencial Power......................................................................... 4
Função densidade de probabilidade .......................................................................... 4
Função de verossimilhança ....................................................................................... 4
Prioris ........................................................................................................................ 4
Posteriori ................................................................................................................... 4
5. Resultados ........................................................................................................... 4
Estimador e desvio padrão a posteriori de β ............................................................. 4
Estimador e desvio padrão a posteriori de α ............................................................. 4
Gráficos da posteriori de β e da posteriori de α ......................................................... 5
Gráficos da Cadeia de Markov Gerada ..................................................................... 6
Intervalos de Credibilidade ........................................................................................ 6
Histograma e curva para verificação do ajustamento das posteriores marginais ....... 7
6. Comandos do R ................................................................................................... 7
2
1. Introdução
β = parâmetro de escala
α = parâmetro de forma
2. Objetivo
3. Dados
0.10,0.15,0.34,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.18
,0.41,0.31,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.12,0.41,0.21,0.34,0.24,0.11,0.26
,0.40,0.26,0.12,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.44,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.20,0.35,0.13,0.30
,0.23,0.25,0.12,0.37,0.18
3
4. Distribuição Exponencial Power
𝛼
𝛼 (𝛼−1) (β𝑥)𝛼 1−𝑒 (β𝑥)
𝑓(𝑥 ) = 𝛼𝛽 𝑥 𝑒 (𝑒 ) , 𝑥 > 0, β > 0 e 𝛼 > 0
Função de verossimilhança
𝑛 (𝛼−1)
𝑛 𝛼𝑛 𝑛 𝛼 𝑛 (β𝑥)𝛼 )
𝐿(𝜆, 𝑘 |𝑥 ) ∝ 𝛼 β ∏ 𝑥 𝑒 ∑𝑖=1(β𝑥) 𝑒 ∑𝑖=1(1−𝑒
𝑖=1
Prioris
𝜋β (β)~Gama(β, α) 𝜋α (α)~Gama(β, α)
Posteriori
𝑛 (𝛼−1) 𝛼
𝑛 𝛼𝑛 𝑛 𝛼 ∑𝑛
𝑖=1(1−𝑒
(β𝑥) )
𝑝(λ, k|x) ∝ (𝛼 β ∏ 𝑥 𝑒 ∑𝑖=1(β𝑥) 𝑒 )(π( β, α))
𝑖=1
5. Resultados
4
Gráficos da posteriori de β e da posteriori de α
5
Gráficos da Cadeia de Markov Gerada
Intervalos de Credibilidade
Intervalo de credibilidade de 95% para β: [2.592371 ; 3.116120]
Intervalo de credibilidade de 95% para α: [1.624421 ; 2.551445]
6
Histograma e curva para verificação do ajustamento das posteriores
marginais
6. Comandos do R
## Número de iterações
N<-20000
beta<-length(N+1)
alpha<-length(N+1)
7
n<-50
x=
c(0.10,0.15,0.34,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.19,0.18
,0.41,0.31,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.12,0.41,0.21,0.34,0.24,0.11,0.26
,0.40,0.26,0.12,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.44,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.20,0.35,0.13,0.30
,0.23,0.25,0.12,0.37,0.18)
ni = 0.1
var.b<-0.1
length(x)
## Inicializando o algoritmo
beta[1]<-1
alpha[1]<-1
## Função Posteriori
jointpost<-function(beta,alpha) {
loglikelihood<- ( (alpha**n)*((beta**alpha)**n)*(prod(x**(alpha-
1)))*(exp(sum((beta*x)**alpha)))*exp(sum(1-exp( (beta*x)**alpha))))
8
prior<- (dgamma(beta,10,7)*dgamma(alpha,10,7))
jointpost <-prior*loglikelihood
return(jointpost )
## Variáveis auxiliares
prop1<-length(N)
aux1<-length(N)
num1<-length(N)
den1<-length(N)
h1<-length(N)
ratio1<-length(N)
prop2<-length(N)
aux2<-length(N)
num2<-length(N)
den2<-length(N)
h2<-length(N)
ratio2<-length(N)
9
j<-rep(0,times=N)
t<-rep(0,times=N)
for (i in 1:N) {
prop1[i]=rgamma(1,shape=beta[i]/ni,scale =ni)
aux1[i]=jointpost(prop1[i],alpha[i])/(jointpost(beta[i],alpha[i]))
num1[i]=dgamma(beta[i],shape=prop1[i]/ni,scale=ni)
den1[i]=dgamma(prop1[i],shape=beta[i]/ni,scale=ni)
h1[i]=num1[i]/den1[i]
ratio1[i]=h1[i]*aux1[i]
alpha1=min(1,ratio1[i])
u1=runif(1)
if (u1<alpha1)
beta[i+1]=prop1[i]
10
else {beta[i+1]=beta[i]
t[i]=1}
prop2[i]=rgamma(1,shape=alpha[i]/ni,scale =ni)
aux2[i]=jointpost(beta[i+1],prop2[i])/jointpost(beta[i+1],alpha[i])
h2[i]=prop2[i]/alpha[i]
ratio2[i]=h2[i]*aux2[i]
alpha2=min(1,ratio2[i])
u2=runif(1)
if (u2<alpha2)
alpha[i+1]=prop2[i]
else {alpha[i+1]=alpha[i]
j[i]=1} }
1-sum(t)/i
11
1-sum(j)/i
mean(beta)
sd(beta)
mean(alpha)
sd(alpha)
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
par(mai=c(0.77,0.77,0.0, 0.07))
ts.plot(beta,ylab=expression(beta))
par(mai=c(0.77,0.77,0.45, 0.07))
acf(beta,main=expression(beta))
12
par(mai=c(0.77,0.77,0.0, 0.07))
ts.plot(alpha,ylab=expression(alpha))
par(mai=c(0.77,0.77,0.45, 0.07))
acf(alpha,main=expression(alpha))
## Histograma e curva
d=function(x){((exp(1-
exp(((mean(beta)*(x))**mean(alpha)))))*(exp(((mean(beta)*(x))**mean(alpha))))
*(mean(beta)**mean(alpha))*mean(alpha)*x**(mean(alpha)-1))}
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
hist(x, xlim=c(0,0.5), ylim = c(0,6),prob = TRUE,ylab = "Densidade",xlab =
"X",main = "")
lines(density(x),col="red",lwd =2)
curve(d,add=T,col="blue",lwd =2)
13