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CAPITULO 2
Variáveis Aleatórias
!1
Introdução
!2
Para discutir as propriedades de equilíbrio de um sistema macroscópico, não
é necessário o pleno conhecimento do comportamento microscópico de
suas partículas constituintes.
!3
Variáveis aleatórias
!5
ability
Do ponto de vista prático, gostaríamos de saber como atribuir
valores de probabilidade aos diferentes resultados possíveis.
om a practical point of view, we would like to know how to assign
Para values
bility isso temos duas estratégias
to various possíveis:
outcomes. There are two possible approaches:
NA
p!A" = lim #
N →" N
Por exemplo,
example, uma
a series of N =série de N
100$ 200$ 300=throws
100, of200, 300
a dice lances
may result de
in Num dado
1 = 19$ 30$ 48
pode resultar
urrences of 1. The em N10.19,
ratios = 19, 30,0.16
0.15, 48 provide
ocorrências do valor more
an increasingly 1. reliable estimate
he probability pdice !%1&".
Os valores 0.19, 0.15, 0.16 fornecem uma estimativa cada vez mais
jective probabilities provide a theoretical estimate based on the uncertainties related
confiável da probabilidade pdado({1}). !6
ack of precise knowledge of outcomes. For example, the assessment pdice !%1&" = 1/6
As probabilidades subjetivas fornecem uma estimativa teórica baseada nas
incertezas relacionadas à falta de conhecimento preciso dos resultados.
!7
Densidade de probabilidade
!8
that is, ! x = %−" < x < "&.
Propriedades
• da CPF:
The cumulative probability function (CPF) P!x" is the probability of an
outcome with any value less than x, that is, P!x" = prob!E ⊂ '−"$ x(". P!x"
- P(x) deve ser uma função monotonamente crescente de x: Se x2 > x1,
must be a monotonically increasing function of x, with P!−"" = 0 and
então P(x2) > P(x1)
P!+"" = 1.
- P(-∞) = 0
- P(+∞) = 1.
P(x)
1
0 x
−1
Note that since p!x" is a probability density, it has dimensions
Note que uma vez que p(x) é uma densidade de probabilidade, ela tem
of #x% , and
changes itsde
dimensões value
x-1 if
e the
mudaunitsseu
measuring areunidades
valor se xas modified.que
Unlike P!x",x the
medem PDF
forem
has no upper bound, that is, 0 < p!x" < #, and may contain divergences as
modificadas.
long as they are integrable.
• The expectation value of any function, F!x", of the random variable is
! #
%F!x"& = dx p!x"F!x"& !10 (2.2)
−#
Propriedades da PDF:
- por ser a derivada da CPF, a PDF deve tender a zero nos limites x→-∞ e
x→+∞.
- Ao contrário de P(x), a PDF não tem limite superior, ou seja, 0 <p(x) < ∞,
e pode conter divergências, desde que sejam integráveis.
2.2 One random variable
dP
p(x) =
dx
0 x
Z +1
hXi = x p(x) dx
1
⟨X⟩ = ∑i xi p(xi).
⟨F(X)⟩ = ∑i F(xi) p(xi). !13
Momentos de uma PDF
!14
Analisemos os primeiros momentos centrados:
!15
follows from normalization (2.1.3) and the definition of the mean (2.1.1).
Momentos centrados
Higher order de(with
moments ordem
n ≥superior (comother
2 ) describe n ≥properties
2) descrevem outras
of X . For
propriedades
instance, thede X. moment about the mean or the variance of X , denoted by
second
var{X } and defined by
O segundo momento centrado é denominado variância de X:
var{X } = ⟨(X − ⟨X ⟩)2 ⟩, (2.1.5)
var{X} = ⟨(X − ⟨X⟩)2⟩.
quantifies the variability, or mean squared deviation, of X from its mean ⟨X ⟩.
The linearity of the expected value operator ⟨⟩ (see section 2.2) ensures that
Usando a linearidade
(2.1.5) reduces to do operador ⟨ ⟩, temos:
var{X } = ⟨X 2 − 2X ⟨X ⟩ + ⟨X ⟩2 ⟩
= ⟨X 2 ⟩ − 2⟨X ⟩2 + ⟨X ⟩2
= ⟨X 2 ⟩ − ⟨X ⟩2 . (2.1.6)
2
The mean and variance
√ are sometimes denoted by the Greek letters µ and σ ,
respectively, and σ 2 = σ is called the standard deviation of X . The third
moment about the mean enters into the definition of skewness,
!16
3
A média e a variância são denominadas às vezes com as letras " e #2:
⟨X⟩ ≡ "
var{X} ≡ #2
!17
O terceiro momento centrado entra na definição da skewness (em
português, obliquidade ou assimetria):
h(X hXi)3 i
skewness{X} = 3
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h(X hXi)4 i
kurtosis{X} = 4
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!18
n
S = hû3 i = 3
=
A skewness quantifica a assimetria de X em torno de N n=1
suaumédia: u
!19
(a) Obliquidade
A kurtosis é uma medida de forma que caracteriza o achatamento da curva
média. Utilizando a eq. (2.2.6) para m = 3 teremos que
da função de distribuição de probabilidade.
03 X N 3
hu i 1 u hui
•SSe K=
= hû 3
i 3,
= a 3distribuição
= tem o mesmo
n
. achatamento(2.2.8)
que a distribuição
N
normal. u n=1 u
!20
a) Obliquidade (b) Curtose
Função característica
ikx
p̃(k) = he i
X1 n X1 n
( ikx) ( ik)
p̃(k) = he ikx i = h i= hxn i
n=0
n! n=0
n!
!22
Cumulantes
Definimos a função geratriz dos cumulantes como o logaritmo da função
característica:
H(k) = ln p̃(k)
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Por outro lado, sabemos que a função característica pode ser escrita como:
X1
( ik)n n
p̃(k) = hx i
n=0
n!
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!24
Agora expandimos em série o logaritmo do lado direito, usando:
1
X ( 1)`+1 `
ln(1 + ✏) = ✏
`
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`=1
Obtemos:
" 1
!# 1 1
!`
X ( ik)n n X ( 1)`+1 X ( ik)n n
ln p̃(k) = ln 1 + hx i = hx i
n=1
n! ` n=1
n!
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`=1
1 1 1
!`
( ik)m m X X ( 1)`+1 X ( ik)n n
hx ic = hx i Eq. (**)
m=1
m! ` n=1
n!
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`=1
!25
Fixando um valor de m, podemos obter uma expressão para o cumulante de
ordem m, em função de momentos da distribuição.
2
2 1 3
2
( 1) ( ik) ( 1) ( ik)1
hx2 i + hxi
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1 2! 2 1!
hx2 ic = hx2 i
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hxi2 = var{x}
!27
The first four cumulants are called the mean, variance, skewness, and cu
Dessa forma obtemos que os primeiros quatro cumulantes são a média, a
(or kurtosis) of the distribution, respectively, and are obtained fro
variância, a skewness, e a kurtosis:
moments as
#x$c = #x$ %
" 2# " 2#
x c = x − #x$2 %
" 3# " 3# " 2#
x c = x − 3 x #x$ + 2 #x$3 %
" 4# " 4# " 3# " 2 #2 " 2#
x c = x − 4 x #x$ − 3 x + 12 x #x$2 − 6 #x$4 #
#x$ = #x$c %
" 2# " 2#
x = x c + #x$2c %
" 3# " 3# " 2#
x = x c + 3 x c #x$c + #x$3c %
" 4# " 4# " 3# " 2 #2 " 2#
x = x c + 4 x c #x$c + 3 x c + 6 x c #x$2c + #x$4c #
!29
commonly encountered probability distributions are
A distribuição normal
2.3(1)
(1) The
SomeThenormal
normal (Gaussian)
(Gaussian)
important distribution
distribution
probability describes a continuous
describes
distributions realreal
a continuous random
rand
Avariable
variable x,x,with
distribuição with
normal (ou Gaussiana) é definida como:
Thedistribution
sian) properties of three commonly
describes a continuousencountered
%real
% probability distributions
random
(
2 2(
1 1 !x −
!x("
− ("#
examined in this section.p!x" = √
p!x" = √ exp −
exp − 2 # (2.15)
(2
2&' 2
2&' 2 2' 2' 2
% (
(1)1 The normal!x(Gaussian)
− ("2 distribution describes a continuous real rando
x" AThe
=The corresponding
função exp −
√ corresponding characteristic
característica também temfunction
characteristic
# also has
forma Gaussiana:
function also a Gaussian
(2.15)
has a form,
Gaussian form,
variable
2&' x,
2 with 2' 2
% ( % (
* *! 1 % !x − ("2 2 % ( % k2 ' 2 2 2 (
! 1 exp − 1!x − ("− ikx !x=−exp ( k '#
p̃!k"
cteristicp̃!k"=
function dx √ 2 −ik( − (2.16)
= −! also
dx √ has
2&' 2 a
p!x" Gaussian
exp
= √− form,
2' exp
2 − −ikx ("
= exp # −ik( −2 # (2
(2.
−! 2&' 2 2' 2
2' 2 2
% ( % 2&' 2 (
!x − ("2of the distribution can bek2identified
Cumulants '2 from ln p̃!k" = −ik( − k2 ' 2 /2,
2
− corresponding
expThe
Cumulants −
of ikx
the = exp −ik(
distribution −
can
characteristic be identified
function # also (2.16)
from
has a ln p̃!k"
Gaussian = −ik(
form, − k '
Os cumulantes da
2' (2.9 ), as
using Eq. 2 distribuição podem 2ser identificados tomando o logaritmo
dausing Eq. *(2.9
expressão ), as
anterior: % 2
( % (
2 2
! 1 + 2 , !x − (" + , +2 , 2 k '
tion can be=identified
p̃!k" dx#x$
√c =from ln
exp p̃!k"
− =2 −ik( 3 −k '
− ikx
() x+ c2 ,= ' )22 x + c 3= 4 /2,
=
, x +c =exp −ik(
, ··· = 0# − # (2.
(2.17)
−! #x$2&' 2
c = () x c =2'' ) x c = x c = · · · = 0 # 2
4
(2
The normalofcom
Comparando
Cumulants distribution
the Eq. (*)isdo
adistribution thus cancompletely
slide be vemosspecified
24,identifiedque byp̃!k"
its two
o primeiro
from ln first−cumu-
cumulante
= −ik( ké2 '
o 2/
+ The, normal + , +
distribution , is thus completely specified bycluster
fator
x 2
lants. =que
' 2 acompanha
This
) makes
x 3
= thex 4 a (–ik)
computation
= · · · = e0 # o ofsegundo
moments cumulante
using
(2.17) the éitso two
fatorfirst
quecu
expansion
using c Eq. (2.9 ), cas
lants. This makes the
c
computation
acompanha
(Eqs. (2.12)) a (–k 2 )/2!. Logo:
particularly simple, and of moments using the cluster expans
(Eqs.completely
is thus (2.12)) particularly
specified simple,
+ by
2
, itsand + 3 , cumu-
2two first
+ 4,
#x$c = () x c = ' ) x c = x c = · · · = 0 # !30 (2.
#x$ =()
omputation of moments using the cluster expansion
using Eq. (2.9 ), as
Portanto, para a distribuição
+ 2normal,
, apenas
+ 3 , os+ dois
, primeiros cumulantes
2 4
são não nulos. #x$ c =a
Aliás, x c = ' normal
()distribuição ) x cé=a x única
c
= distribuição
··· = 0# que tem (2.1
todos os cumulantes nulos menos o primeiro e o segundo.
The normal distribution is thus completely specified by its two first cum
ants. This makes
Isto facilita muito othe computation
cálculo of moments
dos momentos using
a partir dos the cluster
cumulantes. expansio
Usando
as expressões
Eqs. do slide 29,simple,
(2.12)) particularly obtemos:
and
#x$ =()
+ 2,
x =' 2 + (2 )
+ 3,
x =3' 2 ( + (3 ) (2.1
+ 4,
x =3' 4 + 6' 2 (2 + (4 )
···
!31