Asteroids Aff 1/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

Asteroids Aff
Asteroids Aff............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1AC-Inh.................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1AC-Collisions ADv.................................................................................................................................................. 5 1AC-Accidental War............................................................................................................................................... 10 1AC-Plan................................................................................................................................................................. 13 1AC-Slv................................................................................................................................................................... 14 *** !H"#"!$%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1' ***IN !"!NC#..................................................................................................................................................... 1$ %AC IN !"!NC#&P"'(A(I)I*#........................................................................................................................ 1+ IN !"!NC#.......................................................................................................................................................... 1, IN !"!NC#.......................................................................................................................................................... 1IN !"!NC#.S/A)) N!'s...............................................................................................................................%0 IN !"!NC#.N!W *!)!SC'P!S 0!#..............................................................................................................%1 ***(A#)" AS*"#+ D AD,A!*A)"&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 21 ***)A"1! AS*!"'ID AD2AN*A1!...................................................................................................................%1 "IS0 I1 ............................................................................................................................................................ %% "IS0 I1 ............................................................................................................................................................ %3 S*"I0! IN!2I*A()!........................................................................................................................................... %4 AS*!"'ID I/PAC*.............................................................................................................................................. %5 AS*!"'ID I/PAC*.............................................................................................................................................. %$ !3*INC*I'N 0!#................................................................................................................................................ %+ WA" AND DIS!AS! I/PAC*..............................................................................................................................%, !C'N I/PAC*...................................................................................................................................................... %'4*W!I1 S !N2I"'N/!N*........................................................................................................................... 30 D!)A# (AD........................................................................................................................................................... 31 "IS0 CA)C4)4S.IN*!"2!NIN1 AC*'"S......................................................................................................3% "IS0 CA)C4)4S./A1NI*4D! 0!#.................................................................................................................33 ***SMA(( AS*"#+ D AD,A!*A)"&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& -***S/A)) AS*!"'ID AD2AN*A1!...................................................................................................................33 %AC S/A)) AS*!"'ID CA"D.............................................................................................................................34 S/A)) AS*!"'IDS I/PAC*.ACCID!N*S.......................................................................................................35 S/A)) AS*!"'IDS I/PAC*.ACCID!N*S ......................................................................................................3$ S/A)) AS*!"'IDS I/PAC*.C'))ISI'N........................................................................................................3+ ***S+(,"!$%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& -7 ***S')2!NC#....................................................................................................................................................... 3+ 1!N!"A) S')2!NC#.......................................................................................................................................... 3, NASA 0!#.............................................................................................................................................................. 354NDIN1 S')2!NC#.......................................................................................................................................... 40 SPAC!-(AS!D D!*!C*I'N 1''D.....................................................................................................................41 SPAC!-(AS!D D!*!C*I'N 1''D....................................................................................................................4% S '"*-*!"/ WA"NIN1 S')2!NC#...............................................................................................................43 P #SICA) IN2!S*I1A*I'N S')2!NC#...........................................................................................................44 D!*!C*I'N S455ICI!N*................................................................................................................................... 45 1!N!"A) D!5)!C*I'N *!C S')2!NC#......................................................................................................4$ W! CAN D!5)!C* N'W...................................................................................................................................... 4+ CAPS S')2!NC#.................................................................................................................................................. 4, S')A" D!5)!C*I'N S')2!NC#.......................................................................................................................4N40! D!5)!C*I'N S')2!S.............................................................................................................................. 50 S')2!S ACCID!N*S............................................................................................................................................ 51

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 2/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM A"!CI('&1')DS*'N! S')2!NC#...................................................................................................................5% A"!CI(' P)4S 1')DS*'N! S')2!NC#.........................................................................................................53 ('* 0!#............................................................................................................................................................. 54 A"!CI(' 1''D................................................................................................................................................... 5$ A"!CI(' 1''D.................................................................................................................................................... 5+ 1')DS*'N! 1''D............................................................................................................................................. 5, "ADA" P)4S 'P*ICA) 0!#................................................................................................................................ 5C A"AC*!"I6A*I'N 0!#.................................................................................................................................$0 ***ADD.+!S&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& '0 ***ADD-'NS......................................................................................................................................................... $0 /ININ1 ADD-'N.................................................................................................................................................. $1 /ININ1 1''D..................................................................................................................................................... $% )!AD!"S IP ADD-'N........................................................................................................................................ $3 C')'NI6A*I'N ADD-'N................................................................................................................................... $4 N40! D!5)!C*I'N ADD-'N............................................................................................................................. $5 N40! D!5)!C*I'N (AD.................................................................................................................................... $$ ***A!SW"#S *+/&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& '' ***ANSW!"S *'7................................................................................................................................................. $$ A%7 "'IDS 1''D.................................................................................................................................................. $+ A%7 CAN8* D!*!C* S/A)) AS*!"'IDS............................................................................................................$, A%7 SPAC! /I)..................................................................................................................................................... $A%7 NASA *"AD!'55........................................................................................................................................... +0 A%7 'N)# N40! D!5)!C*I'N W'"0S.............................................................................................................+1 A%7 SPAC!14A"D S')2!S.................................................................................................................................. +% A%7 D'D C&P.......................................................................................................................................................... +3 A%7 D!2!)'P D!5)!C*I'N *!C .....................................................................................................................+4 A%7 CI2I) D!5!NS!&/I*I1A*I'N.....................................................................................................................+5 A%7 D' I* C'2!"*)#........................................................................................................................................... +$ A%7 C''P!"A*I'N 0!#...................................................................................................................................... ++ A%7 P"I2A*! AC*I'N.......................................................................................................................................... +, A%7 P"I2A*! AC*I'N.......................................................................................................................................... +A%7 PS#C 'ANA)#SIS........................................................................................................................................ ,0 A%7 "!PS C"I*I94!S........................................................................................................................................... ,1 A%7 C'N*"') C"I*I94!.................................................................................................................................... ,% A%7 *"AD!'55&SP!NDIN1................................................................................................................................ ,3 A%7 1'2!"N/!N* S 4*D'WN....................................................................................................................... ,4

Asteroids Aff -/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

1A$. nh
Stat0s 10o efforts to 2onitor near."arth ob3ects are ins0fficientdangero0s ob3ects are sti44 0ndisco5ered !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

1ro;nd->ased telescoFes have diffic;lt@ o>servinB N!'s co<inB to=ard !arth fro< near the S;n8s direction
the@ Foint to=ard these directions. '>?ects

>eca;se their close FroKi<it@ to the S;n.as vie=ed fro< !arth.ca;ses s;nliBht scattered >@ !arth8s at<osFhere to >e a Fro>le< and also Foses risLs to the telescoFes =hen

re<aininB in those directions have or>its larBel@ interior to !arth8sM the ;nderstandinB of their n;<>er is as @et ver@ ;ncertain. In additionC there are o>?ects that re<ain too far fro< !arth to >e detected al<ost all of the ti<e. *he latter incl;de !arth-aFFroachinB co<ets :co<ets =ith or>its that aFFroach the S;n at distances less than 1.3
astrono<ical ;nits NA4O and have Feriods less than %00 @earsJC of =hich 151 are c;rrentl@ Lno=n. *hese reFresent a class of o>?ects Fro>a>l@ doo<ed to >e FerFet;all@ onl@ Fartl@ Lno=nC as the@ are not liLel@ to >e detected in advance of a close !arth enco;nter. *hese o>?ectsC after the co<Fletion of eKha;stive searches for N!'sC co;ld do<inate the i<Fact threat to h;<anit@. *h;sC

assessinB the co<Fleteness of the N!' s;rve@s is s;>?ect to ;ncertainties7 So<e Bro;Fs of N!'s are Fartic;larl@ diffic;lt to detect. Asteroids and co<ets are contin;all@ lost fro< the N!' FoF;lation >eca;se the@ i<Fact the S;n or a FlanetC or >eca;se the@ are e?ected fro< the solar s@ste<. So<e asteroids have collisions that chanBe their siAes or or>its. Ne= o>?ects are introd;ced into the N!' FoF;lation fro< <ore distant reservoirs over h;ndreds of tho;sands to <illions of @ears. *he ;ndiscovered N!'s co;ld incl;de larBe o>?ects liLe %00- C,% as =ell as o>?ects that =ill >e discovered onl@ <onths or less >efore !arth i<Fact :Di<<inent i<FactorsEJ. enceC even tho;Bh ,5 Fercent of N!'s larBer than 1 Lilo<eter in dia<eter <iBht alread@ have >een discovered C and event;all@ <ore than -0 Fercent of N!'s larBer than 140 <eters in dia<eter =ill >e discoveredC N!' s;rve@s sho;ld nevertheless contin;eC >eca;se o>?ects not @et discovered Fose a statistical risL7 ;<anit@ <;st >e constantl@ viBilant . 5indinB7 DesFite
FroBress to=ard or co<Fletion of an@ s;rve@ of near-!arth o>?ectsC it is i<Fossi>le to identif@ all of these o>?ects >eca;se o>?ects8 or>its can chanBeC for eKa<Fle d;e to collisions. "eco<<endation7 'nce a near-!arth o>?ect s;rve@ has reached its <andated BoalC the

search for N!'s sho;ld not stoF. SearchinB sho;ld contin;e to identif@ as <an@ of the re<aininB o>?ects and o>?ects ne=l@ in?ected into the N!' FoF;lation as Fossi>leC esFeciall@ i<<inent i<Factors. Des6ite these fai40res feasib4e so40tions e7istthis o0t8eighs a44 other i26acts 9+(%$A9 *A( S* 10.28.2010 :I a< an indeFendent investor =ith Frivate sector eKFerience in invest<ent >anLinBC strateB@ cons;ltinB and vent;re
I tho;Bht it co;ld >e a niceC liBht distraction to =rite a>o;t the

caFital. I have =orLed =ith >oth <;ltinationals and start;FsC and I have served on the >oard of directors of >oth F;>licl@ traded and Frivate co<Fanies. /@ acade<ic traininB consists of Brad;ate&FostBrad;ate st;dies in acco;ntinBC finance and econo<ic histor@. DCheaF Ins;rance ABainst the 4lti<ate (lacL S=anCE httF7&&seeLinBalFha.co<&insta>loB&4,---+-the-Fol@caFitalist&105$+4-cheaF-ins;rance-aBainst-the-;lti<ate->lacL-s=anJ

Breatest Lno=n threat to life on earth. What is itG 1lo>al =ar<inBC infectio;s diseaseC and ther<on;clear =ar are so<e of the <ore co<<on ans=ers to this P;estion. o=everC there is another threat of FerhaFs even Breater danBer =hich doesnQt receive nearl@ as <;ch airti<eC or reso;rces devoted to its Frevention. 5or<er astrona;t ";ssell Sch=eicLart recentl@ Fenned a N# *i<es Fiece on the ver@ real risLs Fosed >@ asteroids to life on earth. I had the Fleas;re of <eetinB /r. Sch=eicLart several @ears aBoC and he is Benerall@ considered the leadinB advocate for increasinB a=areness and addressinB this threat. Asteroids -- as an@ *"eK fan =ill attest -- can >e a>sol;tel@ devastatinB. StronB scientific evidence s;BBests that $5 <illion @ears aBo an asteroid of aFFroKi<atel@ seven to eiBht <iles in dia<eter str;cL near /eKico and =iFed o;t the dinosa;rs and over half of all sFecies . It doesnQt taLe an eiBht <ile asteroid to ca;se siBnificant da<aBe. *he Q*;nB;sLa eventQ C =hich feat;red an asteroid =ith a dia<ater of onl@ 1%0 feetC leveled aFFroKi<atel@ ,00 sP;are <iles of :thanLf;ll@J relativel@ e<Ft@ Si>erian forest. An asteroid <;ch s<aller than *;nB;sLa co;ld hit a heavil@ FoF;lated area and ca;se a loss of life in the <illions . Can An@thinB (e DoneG *here is so<e Bood ne=s. We alread@ Fossess the technical Lno=ledBe to Frevent asteroid i<Fact. We can detect asteroids that <a@ collide =ith earthC so<eti<es ;F to a decade in advance of Fotential i<Fact. We also Lno= =hat to do once =eQve sFotted one thatQs on a collision co;rse =ith o;r Flanet . 'ne oFtion can >e descri>ed si<Fl@ as ;sinB a sFacecraft to Rrear-endR the asteroid. *his alters the asteroidQs tra?ector@ a=a@ fro< earth. *he >ad ne=s is that =e are not investinB the relative Fittance it =o;ld taLe to <itiBate asteroid i<Fact risL . Sch=eicLart esti<ates that it =o;ld cost ro;Bhl@ S%50-S300 <illion over the neKt 10 @ears to tracL all asteroids and f;ll@ develoF the deflection caFa>ilit@. Ann;al <aintenance eKFense for the FroBra< =o;ld >e S50-S+5 <illion. *hese fiB;res reFresent a s<all fraction of the 4.S. federal >;dBet. SoC the choice is Frett@ clear. We can either sFend a fe= h;ndred <illions dollars and <itiBate asteroid risL. 'r =e can contin;e to roll the dice risLinB FerhaFs all life on earth . Asteroid def4ection atte26ts are ine5itab4e b0t the: 8i44 fai4 8itho0t ear4: 8arning !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J In contrast to other Lno=n nat;ral haAardsC there has >een no siBnificant loss of h;<an life to i<Facts in historical ti<esC d;e to the lo= freP;enc@ of <a?or i<Facts and the hiBher Fro>a>ilit@ of i<Fact in ;nFoF;lated areas :nota>l@ the oceansJ rather than in FoF;lated reBions. 4nliLe the other haAards listed in *a>le %.%C the haAard statistics for N!'s are do<inated >@ sinBle events =ith Fotentiall@ hiBh fatalities seFarated >@ lonB ti<e intervals. Sho;ld

scientists identif@ a larBe life-threateninB o>?ect on a collision co;rse =ith !arthC tre<endo;s F;>lic reso;rces to <itiBate the risL =o;ld al<ost certainl@ >e >ro;Bht to >ear. o=everC oFtions for effective <itiBation >eco<e <;ch <ore li<ited =hen threateninB

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 4/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM o>?ects are identified =ith onl@ <onths to @earsC rather than decades or cent;riesC >efore i<Fact. *h;sC one of the Breatest ele<ents of risL associated =ith N!'s is the F;>lic8s eKFectation that Bovern<ents =ill Frovide Frotection aBainst an@ threat fro< N!'sC even as Bovern<ents and aBencies have >een ;n=illinB so far to eKFend F;>lic f;nds in a concerted effort to identif@C cataloBC and characteriAe as <an@ Fotentiall@ danBero;s N!'s as Fossi>leC as far in advance of a da<aBinB i<Fact event as feasi>le .

Asteroids Aff ;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

1A$.$o44isions AD5
Ad5antage <<< is asteroid co44ision Asteroid i26act is 100= certain and co04d occ0r at an: ti2e ,"#S$H>># 1??' :1erritC Ad?;nct Prof of Ph@sics at 4 of /e<FhisC I<Fact7 the *hreat of Co<ets and AsteroidsC F. 15,J
interest in the threatC reass;rinB

In the Fast fe= @earsC the co<et i<Fact scenario has taLen on a life of its o=n and the danBer of asteroids has >een added to the co<et co;nt. In the conteKt of heiBhtened

Fredictions have >een offered a>o;t the liLelihood of a civiliAation-destro@inB i<Fact in the @ears to

co<e. Witho;t eKceFtionC the scientists =ho have recentl@ offered odds have >een caref;l in <aLinB an@ state<ent . *he@ have acted in a RresFonsi>leR <anner and left ;s =ith a feelinB that the threat is not =orth =orr@inB a>o;t. *his is not to criticiAe their earnest effortsC onl@ to Foint o;t that esti<ates have >een atte<Fted for cent;ries. *he =a@ I looL at the >;siness of offerinB odds is that it

hardl@ <atters =hether the chance of >einB =iFed o;t neKt cent;r@ is 1 in 10C000C for eKa<FleC or that the liLelihood of a civiliAation-destro@inB i<Fact is once in a <illion @ears. *hatQs liLe >ettinB on a horse race. *he onl@ thinB that is certain is that a horse =ill =in. What <atters is the larBer Fict;re that >eBins to force itself into o;r i<aBinationM co<et or asteroid i<Facts are inevita>le . *he neKt one <a@ not =iFe ;s o;t in the co<inB cent;r@C or even in the cent;r@ after thatC >;t sooner or later it =ill haFFen. It co;ld haFFen neKt @ear . I thinL that =hat <atters is
ho= =e react to this Lno=ledBe. *hatC in the lonB r;nC is =hat =ill <aLe a difference to o;r Flanet and its inha>itants. It is not the i<Fact itself that <a@ >e i<<ediatel@ relevantM it is ho= =e react to the idea of an i<Fact that <a@ chanBe the co;rse of h;<an histor@. I a< afraid that =e

=ill deal =ith this Fotentiall@ <indeKFandinB discover@ in the =a@ =e deal =ith <ost iss;es that relate to <atters of Breat conseP;enceM =e =ill iBnore it ;ntil the crisis is ;Fon ;s. *he Fro>le< <a@ >e that the conseP;ences of a co<et catastroFhe are so horrendo;s that it is easiest to confront it thro;Bh denial. In the endC tho;BhC it <a@ >e this li<itation of h;<an nat;re that =ill deter<ine o;r fate. *he i26act is e7tinction Mc)> #" 2002 :(illC Professor of 1eohaAards at 4niversit@ ColleBe )ondon and is one of (ritainQs leadinB volcanoloBistsC A 1;ide to the !nd of the WorldC F. 15-1$,J

off the coast of /eKicoQs #;catan Penins;la $5 <illion @ears earlier. ere a 10Lilo<etre asteroid or co<et.its eKact nat;re is ;ncertain.crashed into the sea and chanBed o;r =orld forever. Within <icrosecondsC an ;ni<aBina>le eKFlosion released as <;ch enerB@ as >illions of iroshi<a >o<>s detonated si<;ltaneo;sl@C creatinB a titanic fire>all hotter than the S;n that vaForiAed the ocean and eKcavated a crater 1,0 Lilo<etres across in the cr;st >eneath. ShocL =aves >lasted ;F=ardsC tearinB the at<osFhere aFart and eKFellinB over a h;ndred trillion tonnes of <olten rocL into sFaceC later to fall across the Blo>e. Al<ost i<<ediatel@ an area >iBBer than !;roFe =o;ld have >een flattened and sco;red of virt;all@ all lifeC =hile <assive earthP;aLes rocLed the Flanet. *he at<osFhere =o;ld have ho=led and screa<ed as h@Fercanes five ti<es <ore Fo=erf;l than the stronBest h;rricane riFFed the landscaFe aFart C ?oininB forces =ith h;Be ts;na<is to >atter coastlines <an@ tho;sandsof Lilo<etres distant. !ven =orse =as to follo=. As the rocL >lasted into sFace >eBan to rain do=n across the entire Flanet so the heat Benerated >@ its re-entr@ into the at<osFhere irradiated the s;rfaceC roastinB ani<als alive as effectivel@ as an oven BrillC and startinB Breat conflaBrations that laid =aste the =orldQs forests and Brasslands and t;rned f;ll@ a P;arter of all livinB <aterial to ashes . !ven once the at<osFhere and oceans had settled do=nC the cr;st had stoFFed sh;dderinBC and the >o<>ard<ent of de>ris fro< sFace had ceasedC <ore =as to co<e. In the follo=inB =eeLsC s<oLe and d;st in the at<osFhere >lotted o;t the S;n and >ro;Bht te<Ferat;res Fl;nBinB >@ as <;ch as 15 deBrees Celsi;s. In the Bro=inB Bloo< and >itter cold the s;rvivinB Flant life =ilted and died =hile those her>ivoro;s dinosa;rs that re<ained slo=l@ starved. Blo>al =ildfires and acid rain fro< the h;Be P;antities of s;lFh;r in?ected into the at<osFhere fro< rocLs at the site of the i<Fact Fo;red into the oceansC =iFinB o;t three-P;arters of all <arine life. After @ears of freeAinB conditions the Bloo< follo=inB the so-called ChicK;l;> i<Fact =o;ld event;all@ have liftedC onl@ to reveal a terri>le S;n >laAinB thro;Bh the tatters of an oAone la@er torn aFart >@ the che<ical action of nitro;s oKides concocted in the i<Fact fire>all7 an ;ltraviolet sFrinB hard on the heels of the cos<ic =inter that fried <an@ of the re<aininB sFecies str;BBlinB Frecario;sl@ to hanB on to life. So enor<o;sl@ =as the nat;ral >alance of the !arth ;Fset that accordinB to so<e it <iBht have taLen h;ndreds of tho;sands of
*he *;nB;sLa events Fale into insiBnificance =hen co<Fared to =hat haFFened @ears for the Fost-ChicK;l;> !arth to ret;rn to =hat Fasses for nor<al. When it did the aBe of the Breat reFtiles =as finall@ overC leavinB the field to the Fri<itive <a<<als.o;r distant ancestors.and oFeninB an evol;tionar@ trail that c;l<inated in the rise and rise of the h;<an race. (;t co;ld =e Bo the sa<e =a@1G*o assess the chancesC let <e looL a little <ore closel@ at the destr;ctive Fo=er of an i<Fact event. At *;nB;sLaC destr;ction of the forests res;lted Fartl@ fro< the Breat heat Benerated >@ the eKFlosionC >;t <ainl@ fro< the >last =ave that literall@ F;shed the trees over and flattened the< aBainst the Bro;nd. *he strenBth of this >last =ave deFends ;Fon =hat is called the FeaL overFress;reC that is the difference >et=een a<>ient Fress;re and the Fress;re of the >last=ave. In order to ca;se severe destr;ction thisnccds to eKceed 4. Fo;nds Fer sP;are inchC an overFress;re that res;lts in =ind sFeeds that arc over t=ice the force of those fo;nd in a t@Fical h;rricane. !ven tho;Bh tin@ co<Fared =ithC sa@C the land area of )ondonC the enor<o;s overFress;res Benerated >@ a 50-<etre o>?ect eKFlodinB lo= overhead =o;ld ca;se da<aBe co<Fara>le =ith the detonation of a ver@ larBe n;clear deviceC o>literatinB al<ost ever@thinB =ithin the cit@Qs or>ital <otor=a@. Increase the siAe of the i<Factor and thinBs Bet ver@ <;ch =orse. An asteroid ?;st %50 <etres across =o;ld >e s;fficientl@ <assive to Fenetrate the at<osFhereM >lastinB a crater 5 Lilo<etres across and devastatinB an area of aro;nd 10C000 sP;are Lilo<etres. that is a>o;t the siAe of the !nBlish co;nt@ of 0ent. "aise the siAe of the asteroid aBainC to $50 <etresC and the area of devastation increases to iooMooo sP;are Lilo<etres.a>o;t the siAe of the 4S state of So;th Carolina. *erri>le as this all so;ndsC ho=everC even this =o;ld >e ins;fficient to affect the entire Flanet. In order to do thisC an i<Factor has to >e at least 1 Lilo<etre acrossC if it is one of the sFeedier co<etsC or 1.5 Lilo<etres in dia<eter if it is one of the slo=er asteroids.

A collision =ith one of these o>?ects =o;ld Benerate a >last eP;ivalent to 100.000 <illion tonnes of *N*C =hich =o;ld o>literate an area
500 Lilo<etres across sa@ the siAe of !nBland.and Lill FerhaFs tens of <illions of FeoFleC deFendinB ;Fon the location of the i<Fact. *he real Fro>le<s for the rest of the =orld =o;ld start soon after as d;st in the at<osFhere >eBan to darLen the sLies and red;ce the level of s;nliBht reachinB the !arthQs s;rface. (@ co<Farison =ith the h;Be ChicK;l;> i<Fact it is certain that this =o;ld res;lt in a dra<atic lo=erinB of Blo>al te<Ferat;res >;t there is no consens;s on ?;st ho= >ad this =o;ld >e. *he chances areC ho=everC that an i<Fact of this siAe =o;ld res;lt in aFFallinB =eather conditions and croF fail;res at least as severe as those of the Q#ear Witho;t a S;<<erQM Q=hich follo=ed the 1,15 er;Ftion of IndonesiaQs *a<>ora volcano. As <entioned in the last chaFterC

=ith even develoFed co;ntries holdinB s;fficient food to feed their FoF;lations for onl@ a <onth or soC larBe-scale croF fail;res across the Flanet =o;ld ;ndo;>tedl@ have serio;s i<Flications . "ationinBC at the ver@ leastC is liLel@ to >e die res;ltC =ith a =orst case scenario seeinB =idesFread disr;Ftion of the social and econo<ic fa>ric of develoFed nations. In the develoFinB =orldC =here s;>sistence far<inB re<ains

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 '/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM ver@ <;ch the nor<C =ide-sFread fail;re of the harvests co;ld >e eKFected to translate raFidl@ into fa<ine on a >i>lical scale So<e researchers forecast that as <an@ as a P;arter of the =orldQs FoF;lation co;ld s;cc;<> to a deterioratinB cli<ate follo=inB an i<Fact in the 1.1.5 Lilo<etre siAe ranBe. An@thinB >iBBer and Fhotos@nthesis stoFs co<Fletel@. 'nce this haFFens the iss;e is not ho= <an@ FeoFle =ill die >;t =hether the h;<an race =ill s;rvive . 'ne esti<ate FroFoses that the i<Fact of an o>?ect ?;st 4- Lilo<etres across =ill in?ect s;fficient P;antities of d;st and de>ris into the at<osFhere to red;ce liBht levels >elo= those reP;ired for Fhotos@nthesis . (eca;se =e still donQt Lno= ho= <an@ threateninB o>?ects there are
o;t there nor =hether the@ co<e in >;rstsC it is al<ost i<Fossi>le to sa@ =hen the !arth =ill >e str;cL >@ an asteroid or co<et that =ill >rinB to an end the =orld as =e Lno= it. I<Fact events on the scale of the ChicK;l;> dinosa;r-Liller onl@ occ;r ever@ several tens of <illions of @earsC so in an@ sinBle @ear the chances of s;ch an i<Fact arc tin@.

An@ oFti<is< isC ho=everC te<Fered >@ the fact that. sho;ld the Shiva h@Fothesis >e tr;e.the neKt s=ar< of 'ort Clo;d co<ets co;ld even no= >e sFeedinB to=ards the inner solar s@ste<. 5ailinB thisC =e <a@ have onl@ another tho;sand @ears to =ait ;ntil the ret;rn of the dense Fart of the *a;rid Co<FleK and another asteroidal assa;lt. !ven if it t;rns o;t that there is no coherence in the ti<inB of i<Fact eventsC there is statisticall@ no reason =h@ =e cannot >e hit neKt @ear >@ an ;ndiscovered !arth-CrossinB Asteroid or >@ a lonB-Feriod co<et that has never >efore visited the inner solar s@ste<. S<all i<Factors on the *;nB;sLa scale str;cL (raAil in 1-31 and 1reenland in 10-+C and =ill contin;e to Fo;nd the !arth ever@ fe= decades. (eca;se their destr;ctive footFrint is tin@

co<Fared to the s;rface area of the !arthC ho=everC it =o;ld >e ver@ >ad l;cL if one of these hit an ;r>an areaC and <ost =ill fall in the sea. Altho;Bh this <iBht see< a Bood thinBC a larBer o>?ect striLinB the ocean =o;ld >e ver@ >ad ne=s indeed. A 500-<etre rocL landinB in the Pacific (asinC for eKa<FleC =o;ld Benerate BiBantic ts;na<is that =o;ld o>literate ?;st a>o;t ever@ coastal cit@ in the he<isFhere =ithin %0 ho;rs or so. *he chances of this haFFeninB arc act;all@ P;ite hiBh.a>o;t 1 Fer cent in the neKt 100 @ears.and the death toll co;ld =ell toF half a >illion. !sti<ates of the freP;encies of i<Facts in the 1 Lilo<etre siAe >racLet ranBe fro< 100C000 to 333C000 @earsC >;t the @o;nBest i<Fact crater Frod;ced >@ an o>?ect of this siAe is al<ost a <illion @ears old. 'f co;rseC there co;ld have >een several

is there an@thinB on the horiAonG Act;all@C there is. So<e 13 asteroids.<ostl@ P;ite s<all.co;ld feasi>l@ collide =ith the !arth >efore %100. "ealisticall@C ho=everC this is not ver@ liLel@ as the Fro>a>ilities involved arc not <;ch Breater than 1 in ioMooo. altho;Bh >ear in <ind that these arc Frett@ Bood odds. If this =as the Fro>a>ilit@ of =inninB the lotter@ then <@ local aBent =o;ld >e BettinB considera>l@ <ore of <@ >;siness. *here is another eniB<atic o>?ect o;t
larBe i<Facts sinceC =hich cither occ;rred in the sea or have not @et >een located on land. 5air eno;Bh @o; <iBht sa@C the threat is clearl@ o;t thereC >;t thereC ho=ever. 'f the 40 or so Near !arth Asteroids sFotted last @earC one . desiBnated %000S1344.looLed at first as if it <iBht act;all@ hit ;s. *he o>?ect is s<allC in the 100 <etre siAe ranBeC and its or>it is so si<ilar to the earth that so<e have s;BBested it <a@ >e a >ooster rocLet that sFed one of the AFollo sFacecraft on its =a@ to the /oon. Whether h;nL of rocL or l;<F of <an-<ade <etalC it =as oriBinall@ esti<ated that %000S1344 had a 1 in 500 chance of striLinB the !arth on %1 SeFte<>er %030. ABainC these <a@ so;nd ver@ lonB oddsC >;t the@ are act;all@ onl@ five ti<es Breater than those recentl@ offered d;rinB s;<<er %001 for !nBland >eatinB 1er<an@ 5-1 at foot>all. We can all relaK no= an@=a@C as recent calc;lations have indicated that the o>?ect =ill not aFFroach closer to the !arth than aro;nd five <illion Lilo<etres. A fe= @ears aBoC scientists ca<e ;F =ith an indeK to <eas;re the i<Fact threatC Lno=n as the *orino ScaleC and so far %000S1%144 is the first o>?ect to reBister a val;e Breater than Aero. *he Fotential i<Factor oriBinall@ scraFed into cateBor@ 1C events <eritinB caref;l <onitorinB. )etQs hoFe that <an@ @ears elaFse >efore =e enco;nter the first cateBor@ 10 event.defined as Qa certain collision =ith Blo>al conseP;encesQ. 1iven s;fficient =arninB =e <iBht >e a>le to n;dBe an asteroid o;t of the !arthQs =a@ >;t d;e to its siAeC hiBh velocit@C and s;dden aFFearanceC =c co;ld do little a>o;t a ne= co<et headinB in o;r direction.

!o i26act can o0t8eigh thisnothing e4se threatens e7tinction Mc)> #" 2002 :(illC Professor of 1eohaAards at 4niversit@ ColleBe )ondon and is one of (ritainQs leadinB volcanoloBistsC A 1;ide to the !nd of the WorldC F. 1+31+4J Pro>a>l@ the onl@ Fiece of Bood ne=s that can >e taLen a=a@ fro< <@ >rief looL at the end of the =orld as =e Lno= it is that altho;Bh this is BoinB to haFFen . and soon.

the s;rvival of o;r race see<s to >e ass;redC for no= at least. )eavinB aside the Fossi>ilit@ of a <a?or co<et or asteroid i<Fact on a scale of the dinosa;r-Liller $5 <illion @ears aBo. =hich onl@ haFFen ever@ fe= h;ndred <illion @ears. it is hiBhl@ ;nliLel@ that an@thinB else is BoinB to =iFe o;t ever@ sinBle last one of ;s .all $ >illion Fl;s.in the foreseea>le f;t;re. !ven the reFlace<ent of the =orld =ith =hich =e have >eco<e so fa<iliar =ith one of s=elterinB heat or >itter cold <iBht not see< as scar@ for those of o;r descendants liLel@ to >e in the thicL of thinBs. After allC =e are a re<arLa>l@ adaFta>le sFeciesC and can chanBe to <atch ne= circ;<stances =ith so<e aFlo<>. 5a<iliar Q=orldsQ have certainl@ ended <an@ ti<es >eforeC as no do;>t a centenarian >orn and raised =hile 9;een 2ictoria
sat on the throne of the 4nited 0inBdo<C and =ho lived to sec <an land on the <oonC =o;ld testif@. *he danBer isC ho=everC that the =orld of o;r children and those that follo= =ill >e a =orld of str;BBle and strife =ith little FrosFect ofC and FerhaFs little enth;sias< forC FroBress as the 2ictorians vie=ed it. IndeedC it =o;ld not >e entirel@ s;rFrisinB ifC at so<e f;t;re ti<eC as the Breat coastal cities sinL >eneath the =aves or >elo= sheets of iceC the Beneral consens;s did not hold that there had >een P;ite eno;Bh FroBress thanL @o;.at least for a =hile. While I have tried in these FaBes to eKtraFolate c;rrent trends and ideas to tease o;t and eKa<ine so<e=hat deFressinB scenarios for the f;t;re of o;r Flanet and o;r raceC I a< s;re thatC to so<e eKtent at leastC @o; =o;ld >e ?;stified in acc;sinB <e of a fail;re of the i<aBination. After allC I have rarel@ looLed ahead >e@ond a fe= tens of tho;sands of @earsC and @et o;r S;n =ill still >e >athinB o;r Flanet in its life-BivinB =ar<th for another 5 >illion @ears or <ore. Who Lno=sC over that inco<Frehensi>le lenBth of ti<eC =hat o<o saFiens and the sFecies that evolve fro< ;s =ill do and >eco<e. ';r

sFecies and those that follo= <a@ >e

LnocLed >acL ti<e and ti<e aBain in the short ter<C >;t Frovided =e learn to n;rt;re o;r environ<ent rather than eKFloit itC >oth here on !arth.>efore the S;n event;all@ s=allo=s it ;F.and laterC FerhaFsC in the solar s@ste< and the BalaK@ and >e@ondC then =e have the ti<e to do and >e al<ost an@thinB. /a@>e no= is the riBht ti<e to start. +0r e5idence is co26arati5e8ar@ en5iron2enta4 destr0ction@ terroris2@ and econo2ic co44a6se are a44 d8arfed b: an asteroid i26act S*""( 2002 - To;le Ph@sics )a>orator@C 4niversit@ of Salford :'cto>er %4C D;ncanC D Neo I<Fact aAard7 the Cancer /etaFhor E NASA WorLshoF on Scientific
"eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC httF7&&===.noao.ed;&<eetinBs&<itiBation&<edia&arlinBton.eKtended.Fdf FB. -3J

!arl@ identification is vital /ost cancers need to >e have no ti<e to lose in identif@inB an@ Fotential !arth i<Factor7 there is no Fhon@ =ar =ith these o>?ects. :%J Cancer screeninB :and N!' s;rveillanceJ is cheaF *he cost of screeninB is s<aller than the cost of treat<entC and <;ch less than the cost of doinB nothinB. :3J !ver@one can >e
*he Cancer /etaFhor7 Wh@ facinB ;F to haAardo;s asteroids and co<ets is liLe dealinB =ith cancer7 :1J FicLed ;F ver@ earl@ in their develoF<ent if the@ are to >e treata>le. So it is =ith N!'s. We involved in so<e =a@ Self-insFection :e.B. for >reastC sLin or testic;lar cancerJ is si<FleM >;t a corollar@ is that detailed investiBations :e.B. for >rain t;<o;rsJ are eKFensive. Si<ilarl@ a<ate;r astrono<ers can Frovide vital helFC altho;Bh in the end the Frofessionals =ill need to tacLle the ?o>. :4J Identification of a real Fro>le< is ;nliLel@

=e need to seeL o;t all N!'sC and LeeF ta>s on the<. :5J 5alse alar<s are co<<on An@ indicator of a Fotential Fro>le< necessitates caref;l <onitorinBC and ca;ses
Individ;als are ;nliLel@ to contract sFecific cancers for =hich screeninB is doneC >;t =e <;st ai< to checL ever@one Feriodicall@. In the sa<e =a@

considera>le =orr@. (;t one sho;ld >e Fleased =hen the t;<o;r Froves >eniBn. Precisel@ the sa<e aFFlies to N!'s7 asteroids and co<ets discovered and initiall@ flaBBed to >e

Asteroids Aff 7/84

Fotential i<Factors >;t later sho=n to >e s;re to <iss o;r Flanet reFresent victories on o;r Fart.

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM :$J *acLlinB an@ confir<ed cancer :N!' i<FactJ

is certain to >e ;nFleasant No-one s;BBests that che<otheraF@C radiotheraF@ or s;rBical intervention are f;nC >;t the@ are necessar@C as =o;ld >e the steFs e<Flo@ed to divert an N!'C s;ch as the n;clear oFtion. Nor =o;ld the@ >e cheaF7 >;t the cost =o;ld >e of no conseP;enceC as =ith a serio;s cancer. :+J T;st >eca;se =e donQt @et Lno= the c;re for cancer does not <ean that =e sho;ld Bive ;F looLinB and tr@inB. Where there is lifeC there is hoFe. If =e sho;ld find an N!' destined >@ the clocL=orL of the heavens to i<Fact the !arth in the near f;t;re :=ithin the neKt fe= decades to a cent;r@C sa@JC and ;sinB o;r advanced science and technoloB@ =e <anaBe to divert it and so save o;rselvesC this =ill ranL as FerhaFs the Breatest achieve<ent of <odern-da@ civilisation. :,J T;st >eca;se there are <ore siBnificant Fro>le<s facinB the =orld does not <ean that =e sho;ld iBnore this one. avinB a >ad cold or infl;enAa does not <ean that @o; sho;ld neBlect to have the l;<F in @o;r >reast or the s;sFicio;sC darL sLin >le<ish on @o;r necL checLed o;t. Another vie=Foint =o;ld >e that if there is a s0bstantia4 !"+ d0e to strike o0r 64anetar: ho2e soon@ then 8e face no greater 6rob4e2/ not terrestria4 disasters@ not terroris2@ not 8ars@ not disease@ not g4oba4 8ar2ing@ not 0ne264o:2ent nor econo2ic do8nt0rns& *he <ost liLel@ res;lt of a FroFer st;d@ of the i<Fact haAard is that it =ill Bo a=a@C >eca;se =e =ill find that no i<Fact is d;e =ithin the foreseea>le f;t;re. (;t the converse is also tr;e7 =hat =e no= see as a sli< chance :lo= Fro>a>ilit@ of a larBe i<FactJ <a@ t;rn into a virt;al certaint@C =hich =o;ld then s;FFlant o;r !arthl@ concerns. :-J T;st >eca;se =e
donQt @et Lno= a c;re for the co<<on cold does not <ean that =e cannot find the sol;tion for this disease. So<e of the Breatest danBers =e face on a dail@ >asis have P;ite si<Fle sol;tionsC liLe i<FosinB sFeed li<its to c;t do=n road fatalities. ConceFt;all@C Flanetar@

defense aBainst N!' i<Fact is a far si<Fler Fro>le< thanC sa@C tr@inB to stoF <a?or earthP;aLes or volcanic er;FtionsC or haltinB a h;rricane in its Fath. +n4: asteroid strikes ca0se i22ediate co26o0nd en5iron2enta4 crisesnothing e4se co2es c4ose $HA9MA! 04 :Senior Scientist at the So;th=est "esearch Instit;teC DeFt. of SFace St;diesC Dthe aAard of near-!arth asteroid i<Facts on earthEC !arth and
Planetar@ Science )etters %%%J

I have arB;ed N5-O that i<Facts

<;st >e eKceFtionall@ <ore lethal Blo>all@ than an@ other FroFosed terrestrial ca;ses for <ass eKtinctions >eca;se of t=o ;niP;e feat;res7 :aJ their environ<ental effects haFFen essentiall@ instantaneo;sl@ :on ti<escales of ho;rs to <onthsC d;rinB =hich sFecies have little ti<e to evolve or <iBrate to Frotective locationsJ and :>J there are co<Fo;nd environ<ental conseP;ences :e.B.C >roiler-liLe sLies as e?ecta re-enter the at<osFhereC Blo>al firestor<C oAone la@er destro@edC earthP;aLes and ts;na<iC <onths of ens;inB Di<Fact =interEC cent;ries of Blo>al =ar<inBC FoisoninB of the oceansJ. Not onl@ the raFidit@ of chanBesC >;t also the c;<;lative and s@nerBistic conseP;ences of the co<Fo;nd effectsC 2ake asteroid i26act o5er8he42ing4: 2ore diffic04t for s6ecies to s0r5i5e than a4ternati5e crises& 2olcanis<C sea reBressionsC and even s;dden effects of h@FothesiAed collaFses of continental shelves or Folar ice caFs are far less a>r;Ft than the i<<ediate :=ithin a co;Fle of ho;rsJ =orld=ide conseP;ences of i<Fact M
lifefor<s have <;ch >etter oFFort;nities in lonBer-d;ration scenarios to hideC <iBrateC or evolve. *he alternatives also lacL the diverseC co<Fo;ndinB neBative Blo>al effects. 'nl@ the artificial horror of Blo>al n;clear =ar or the conseP;ences of a ver@ re<ote Fossi>ilit@ of a stellar eKFlosion near the S;n co;ld co<Fete =ith i<Facts for i<<ediateC sFecies-threateninB chanBes to !arthQs ecos@ste<. *hereforeC since the N!A i<Facts

inevita>l@ haFFenedC it is Fla;si>le that the@.and chiefl@ the@ alone.ca;sed the <ass eKtinctions in !arthQs histor@ :as h@FothesiAed >@ "a;F N$0OJC even tho;Bh Froof is lacLinB for sFecific eKtinctions. What other Frocess co;ld Fossi>l@ >e so effectiveG And even if one or <ore eKtinctions do have other ca;sesC the larBest asteroid&co<et i<Facts d;rinB the PhaneroAoic cannot avoid havinB left traces in the fossil record. "5ac0ation 8o04d do nothing ("W S 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J *he cost of findinB and tracLinB t=o-tho;sand-Fl;s Lilo<eter-siAed >odies that cross !arthQs or>it is a fe= <illion dollars Fer @ear. !ver@ esti<ate of the cost&>enefit ratio that I have seen indicates that this is a =ise invest<ent. DeveloFinB a nearl@ co<Flete cataloB of these larBer >odies is also clearl@ technicall@ feasi>le C since s;ch larBe >odies are relativel@ >riBht and relativel@ easil@ fo;nd. In factC =e have located a>o;t 10 Fercent of the< alread@. In do=n-to-!arth ter<sC ki4o2eter. siAed bodies are g4oba4 ki44ers7 the@ taLe die lives of a >illion FeoFle Fer i<FactC and striLe =ith eKFlosive Fo=ers of one h;ndred tho;sand <eBatons at a <ean rate of fo;r i<Fact events Fer <illion @ear s. *h;s the lonB-ter<
aircraft crashes is one h;nched FeoFle Fer @ear. *he

averaBe death rate fro< i<Facts is fo;r >illion FeoFle Fer <illion @earsC or fo;r tho;sand FeoFle Fer @ear =orld=ide. *he FeoFle of the 4nited States <aLe ;F a>o;t 5 Fercent of the Blo>al FoF;lationC so the averaBe A<erican death rate fro< Blo>al-scale i<Facts is a>o;t t=o h;ndred Fer @ear. *he death rate of A<erican citiAens fro< co<<ercial

Fro>le< =ith findinB and tracLinB these ver@ larBe >odies is that evac;ation docs not =orL7 the effects of the disasters are Blo>al . *he leadinB ca;se of death is Fro>a>l@ fa<ine ind;ced >@ cli<ate chanBe. If s;ch a >od@ hits !arthC there are no ref;Bes to =hich FeoFle can >e relocated. /ovinB a=a@ fro< the co<F;ted i<Fact area <eans selectinB a slo= death over a P;icL one. *he death toll =o;ld >e ver@ little affected >@ an@ Fla;si>le relocation effortC since !arthQs a>ilit@ to s;FFort life =o;ld >e ;niversall@ di<inished. 5indinBC tracLinBC and FredictinB the or>its of Lilo<eter-siAed >odies is neither technicall@ de<andinB nor fiscall@ draininBM ratherC the Fro>le< arises =hen =e asL =hat =e =o;ld do =ith the Lno=ledBe. We can in fact do nothinB <eaninBf;l to avoid this

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 8/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM threat ;nless =e ;se sFace technoloB@ to divert or destro@ the threateninB o>?ects. *he FrosFect of lettinB one hit o;r densel@
FoF;lated Flanet is ;nacceFta>le.

*he scarcit: of 4ife in the 0ni5erse 6ro5es both the 6robabi4it: and i26act of o0r ad5antage BACA! 2011 :Case@C '=ner of 1alaK@ /edia ))C and Brad;ate of arvard 4niversit@C D*racLinB the "ealti<e *hreat of Near-!arth Asteroids Uco<ets- co;ld it save
the FlanetGEC *he Dail@ 1alaK@C 5e> ,C httF7&&===.dail@BalaK@.co<&<@H=e>loB&%011&0%&tracLinB-the-realti<e-threat-of-near-earth-asteroids-=ill-it-save-theFlanet.ht<lJ&&D* SteFhen a=LinB >elieves that one of the <a?or factors in the Fossi>le scarcit@ of intelliBent life in o;r BalaK@ is the hiBh Fro>a>ilit@ of an asteroid or co<et collidinB =ith inha>ited Flanets. We have o>servedC a=LinB Foints o;t in )ife in the 4niverseC the collision of a co<etC Sch;<acher-)eviC =ith T;FiterC =hich Frod;ced a series of enor<o;s fire>allsC Fl;<es <an@ tho;sands of Lilo<eters hiBhC hot R>;>>lesR of Bas in the at<osFhereC and larBe darL RscarsR on the at<osFhere =hich had lifeti<es on the order of =eeLs. Shoe<aLer-)ev@ - =as the first co<et discovered to >e or>itinB a FlanetC T;FiterC instead of the s;n. *his enlarBe<ent of a 1--3 ;>>le SFace *elescoFe i<aBe

a>ove sho=s the >riBhtest n;clei in a strinB of aFFroKi<atel@ %0 o>?ects that co<Frise Shoe<aLer-)ev@ - as it h;rtled to=ard its T;l@ I--4 collision =ith T;Fiter. It is tho;Bht

the collision of a rather s<aller >od@ =ith the !arthC a>o;t +0 <illion @ears aBoC =as resFonsi>le for the eKtinction of the dinosa;rs. A fe= s<all earl@ <a<<als s;rvivedC >;t an@thinB as larBe as a h;<anC =o;ld have al<ost certainl@ >een =iFed o;t. *hro;Bh !arthQs histor@ s;ch collisions occ;rC on the averaBe ever@ one <illion @ear. If this fiB;re is correctC it =o;ld <ean that intelliBent life on !arth has develoFed onl@ >eca;se of the l;cL@ chance that there have >een no <a?or collisions in the last +0 <illion @ear s. 'ther Flanets in the BalaK@C a=LinB
>elievesC on =hich life has develoFedC <a@ not have had a lonB eno;Bh collision free Feriod to evolve intelliBent >einBs. While NASAQs Wide-field Infrared S;rve@ !KFlorerC or WIS!C is >;s@ s;rve@inB the landscaFe of the infrared sL@C >;ildinB ;F a cataloB of cos<ic sFeci<ens -- ever@thinB fro< distant BalaKies to RfailedR starsC called >ro=n d=arfsC closer to ho<eC the N!'Wise <ission is FicLinB o;t an i<Fressive collection of asteroids and co<etsC <ost of these hanB o;t in the /ain (elt >et=een /ars and T;FiterC >;t a s<all n;<>er are near-!arth o>?ects -- asteroids and co<ets =ith or>its that Fass =ithin a>o;t 4, <illion Lilo<eters :30 <illion <ilesJ of !arthQs or>it. (@ st;d@inB a s<all sa<Fle of near-!arth o>?ectsC WIS! =ill learn <ore a>o;t the FoF;lation as a =hole. o= do their siAes differC and ho= <an@ o>?ects are darL vers;s liBht. RWe are taLinB a cens;s of a s<all sa<Fle of near-!arth o>?ects to Bet a >etter idea of ho= the@ var@CR said A<@ /ainAerC the FrinciFal investiBator of N!'WIS!C a FroBra< to cataloB asteroids seen =ith WIS!. So farC the <ission has o>served <ore than $0C000 asteroidsC >oth /ain (elt and near-!arth o>?ectsC =ith <ore than 11C000 are ne= Frevio;sl@ ;nLno=n o>?ects.

R';r data FiFeline is >;rstinB =ith asteroidsCR said WIS! PrinciFal InvestiBator Ned WriBht of 4C)A. RWe are discoverinB a>o;t a h;ndred a da@C <ostl@ in the /ain (elt.R A>o;t 1-0 near-!arth asteroids have >een o>served to dateC of =hich <ore than 50 are ne= discoveries. All asteroid o>servations are reForted to the NASA-f;nded International
Astrono<ical 4nionQs /inor Planet CenterC a clearinBho;se for data on all solar s@ste< >odies at the S<ithsonian AstroFh@sical '>servator@ in Ca<>ridBeC /ass.

"5en if the ti2efra2e is 4ong itDs irre4e5ant8e sho04d e5a40ate i26acts in a fra2e of 2i44ennia ,"#S$H>># 1??' :1erritC Ad?;nct Prof of Ph@sics at 4 of /e<FhisC I<Fact7 the *hreat of Co<ets and AsteroidsC F. %1$J *here is an even <ore s;>tle reason =h@ =e are ;nliLel@ to taLe collective and siBnificant action to ass;re the lonB-ter< s;rvival of o;r sFecies. It <anifests as the Fs@choloBical s@ndro<e Lno=n as the Rill;sion of inv;lnera>ilit@.R Individ;als cannot >elieve that the@ =ill Fersonall@ s;cc;<> in the neKt catastroFhe. *his s@ndro<e is at Fla@ in those =ho live haFFil@ in earthP;aLe AonesC in floodFlainsC or on the sides of active volcanoes . *he eKistence of the s@ndro<e Foses a FaradoK. If =e are concerned a>o;t the lonB-ter< s;rvival of civiliAationC =e <;st overco<e o;r Benetic FredisFosition to deal onl@ =ith the i<<ediate f;t;re. DealinB =ith short-ter< iss;es is nat;ral in all ani<alsC and reFresents the Fractical =a@ in =hich to s;rvive fro< da@ to da@. o=everC this FredisFosition is not cond;cive to ass;rinB a lonB-ter< eKistence . PerhaFs that is =hat is at iss;e. We have
learned <;ch a>o;t the nat;ral ;niverse in recent @earsC and the <indQs e@e has onl@ ?;st develoFed the a>ilit@ to scan <illions of @ears of ti<e. #et that see<s to >e no <ore than an intellect;al eKercise =ith little Fractical ;se. PerhaFs the

evol;tion of o;r sFecies <a@ @et deFend on =hether =e can s;cceed in <aLinB ver@ lonB ter< Flans and carr@inB the< o;t for the >enefit of life on earth. Scientific discover@ has >ro;Bht ;s to the Foint =here =e confront the a=eso<e Fro>a>ilit@ that collision =ith an earth-crossinB o>?ect =ill >rinB an end to civiliAation. It is no lonBer a P;estion of =hether a <assive i<Fact =ill occ;r in the f;t;reM it is onl@ a <atter of =hen. !ven if =e thinL it =ill >e a tho;sand @ears fro< no=C the Foint of raisinB the iss;e is to asL o;rselves =hat =e Flan to do a>o;t it. It <a@ >e ti<e to thinL in ter<s of tho;sands of @ears into the f;t;re. I a< ass;<inB that =e care that o;r sFecies =ill >e aro;nd for a lonB ti<eC and that this P;estion is =orth thinLinB a>o;t. Asteroids shatter standard risk ana4:sis5ote Aff no 2atter ho8 4o8 the 6robabi4it: of o0r ad5antage is 9+S!"# 2004 :"ichardC 4S Co;rt of AFFeals ?;dBe and Senior )ect;rer at the 4niversit@ of ChicaBo )a= SchoolC CatastroFhe7 "isL and "esFonse %4--%50J !ven if o;r inso;ciant reaction to s<all Fro>a>ilities of Breat losses is acceFted as an a;thentic >asis for esti<atinB the val;e of life in <ost s;ch sit;ationsC the reaction <a@ not BeneraliAe to ones in =hich the loss C sho;ld it <aterialiAeC =o;ld >e the near or total eKtinction of the h;<an race. If the ann;al Fro>a>ilit@ of an asteroid collision that =o;ld Lill $ >illion FeoFle is onl@ 1 in +5 <illionC the eKFected n;<>er of deaths =orld=ide is onl@ ,0 Fer @earC =hich <a@ not see< a larBe eno;Bh n;<>er to ?;stif@ the eKFense of an effective defense aBainst an asteroid collision. :*his of co;rse iBnores s<aller >;t still lethal collisionsM >;t read on.J (;t if there is a <in;te chance that the entire h;<an raceC >oth c;rrent and f;t;reC =o;ld >e =iFed o;tC toBether =ith all or <ost of the =orld8s ani<al FoF;lationC =e :the a<>iB;o;s D=eE of Folic@ anal@sisC >;t there it <a@ reFresent do<inant F;>lic oFinionJ <a@ thinL that something sho;ld >e done to

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 ?/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM eli<inate or red;ce the risLC sliBht as it isC >e@ond =hat a standard cost->enefit anal@sis =o;ld i<Fl@ M <a@ >e =illinBC
if the risL and the Fossi>le resFonses are eKFlained caref;ll@C to inc;r so<e cost in hiBher taKes or other=ise to red;ce the risL.

An: so45enc: deficit to a co0nter64an 2eans :o0 5ote Affconstant asteroid risk 2eans that 8e on4: ha5e to be 8rong a sing4e ti2e and the h02an s6ecies 8i44 end EA#E"" 200? :4&1C (rent W.C (SC AerosFace !nBineerinB deBree fro< 4* A;stinM /S in !nBineerinB fro< the DeFart<ent of AerosFace !nBineerinB and
!nBineerinB /echanics at the 4niversit@ of *eKasC A;stin sFecialiAinB in Astrod@na<ics and SFacecraft /ission DesiBnC c;rrentl@ =orLinB as an AerosFace !nBineer and Planetar@ Defense Scientist =ith the !<erBent SFace *echnoloBies co<Fan@ in 1reen>eltC /ar@landC teaches Brad;ate Astrod@na<ics in the DeFart<ent of AerosFace !nBineerinB at *he 4niversit@ of /ar@landC ColleBe ParLC DPlanetar@ DefenseEC httF7&&===.airFo=er.a;.af.<il&aF?international&&aF?-s&%00-&1tri0-&>ar>eeenB.ht<J&&D*

It is Benerall@ acceFted that statistics and Fro>a>ilit@ theor@ is the >est =a@ to handle Fartial infor<ation Fro>le<s. 1a<>lers and ins;rance co<Fanies e<Flo@ it eKtensivel@. o=everC one of the ;nderl@inB Fre<ises is that it is acceFta>le to >e =ronB so<eti<es. If a Ba<>ler <aLes a >ad Fla@C the hoFe is that the Ba<>ler has <ade <ore Bood Fla@s than >ad ones and still co<es o;t ahead. *his ho=ever is not aFFlica>le to Flanetar@ defense aBainst N!'s. (einB =ronB ?;st once <a@ Frove fatal to <illions of FeoFle or to o;r entire sFecies. If =e tr;st o;r statistical esti<ates of the N!' FoF;lation and o;r Ferceived collision Fro>a>ilities too <;chC =e risL horrific da<aBe or even eKtinction. *his is ho= =e <;st define the li<it for ho= ;sef;l Fro>a>ilit@ theor@ is in the decision-<aLinB Frocess for defense aBainst N!'s.

Asteroids Aff 10/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

1A$.Accidenta4 War
Ad5antage <<<< is accidenta4 8ar S6ace.based detection is ke: to 6re5ent n0c4ear 8ar fro2 s2a44 asteroid strikes DA, D 2002 :)eonardC Senior SFace WriterC SFace.co<C D5irst StriLe or Asteroid I<FactGE T;ne $C httF7&&a>o>.li>s.;Ba.ed;&>o>L&ccc&cc0$0+0%.ht<lJ
areC

/ilitar@ strateBists and sFace scientists that =onder and =orr@ a>o;t a r;n-in >et=een !arth and a co<et or asteroid have additional =orries in these tr@inB ti<es. With =orld tensions >einB the =a@ the@

even a s<all inco<inB sFace rocLC detonatinB over an@ n;<>er of Folitical hot-sFotsC co;ld triBBer a co;ntr@Qs n;clear resFonse convinced it =as attacLed >@ an ene<@ . 1ettinB to Lno= >etter the celestial neiBh>orhoodC chocL f;ll of Fasser->@

asteroids and co<ets is <ore than a Bood idea. Not onl@ can these o>?ects >eco<e tro;>leso<e visitorsC the@ are also reso;rce-rich and scientificall@ >o;ntif;l =orlds. Slo=l@C an action Flan is taLinB shaFe. Noted asteroid and co<et eKFerts <et here /a@ %3-%+C taLinB Fart in the National SFace Societ@Qs International SFace DeveloF<ent Conference %00%. S=eat the s<all st;ff (einB str;cL >@ a Biant asteroid or co<et isnQt the <ain concern for Air 5orce (riBadier 1eneral Si<on WordenC deF;t@ director of oFerations for the 4nited States SFace Co<<and at Peterson Air 5orce (aseC Colorado. e s=eats the s<all st;ff. Worden Fainted a Fict;re of the neKt steFs needed in Flanetar@ defense. is vie=s are not fro< 4.S. DeFart<ent of Defense Folic@ >;t are his o=n Fersonal FersFectivesC dra=inB ;Fon a Frofessional >acLBro;nd of astrono<@. 5or eKa<FleC Worden saidC several tens of tho;sands of @ears aBo an asteroid ?;st 1$5-feet :50 <etersJ in dia<eter F;nched a Biant hole in the Bro;nd near Winslo=C AriAona. *hen there =as the *;nB;sLa event. In T;ne 1-0,C a <assive fire>all >reached the sL@C then eKFloded hiBh a>ove the *;nB;sLa "iver valle@ in Si>eria. *ho;Bht to >e in the ranBe of 1$5feet :50 <etersJ to 330 feet :100 <etersJ in siAeC that o>?ect created a devastatinB >last eP;al to a 5 to 10 <eBaton n;clear eKFlosion. A si<ilar event is tho;Bht to have taLen Flace in the late 1-40s in 0aAaLhstan. ...the Lind of ones that =e =orr@ a>o;tCR Worden said. o=everC these are not the >iB cos<ic >r;isers linLed =ith LillinB off dinosa;rs or creatinB Blo>al catastroFhes. 'n the other handC if @o; haFFen to >e =ithin a fe= tens of <iles fro< the eKFlosion Frod;ced >@ one of these s<aller near-!arth o>?ectsC R@o; <iBht thinL itQs a Frett@ serio;s catastroFheCR Worden said. R*he serio;s Flanetar@ defense efforts that =e <iBht <o;nt in the neKt fe= decades =ill >e directed at <;ch s<aller thinBsCR Worden said. So<e C Rso<e of =hich are Fotentiall@ threateninBC or co;ld >e in the cent;ries aheadCR he said. N;clear triBBer 'ne set of hiBh-tech <ilitar@ satellites is on sFecial ro;nd-the-clocL viBil. *he@ Ferfor< Blo>al looLo;t d;t@ for <issile la;nches. o=everC the@ also sFot <eteor fire>alls >laAinB thro;Bh !arthQs at<osFhere. "o;Bhl@ 30 fire>alls detonate each @ear in the ;FFer at<osFhereC creatinB eP;ivalent to a one-Liloton >o<> >;rstC or larBerC

R*hereQs Fro>a>l@ several h;ndred tho;sand of these 100-<eter or so o>?ects

,0 Fercent of the s<aller o>?ects cross the !arthQs or>it

*hese thinBs hit ever@ @ear and looL liLe n;clear =eaFons. And a co;Fle ti<es a cent;r@ the@ act;all@ hit and ca;se a lot of da<aBeCR Worden said. RWe no= have , or 10 co;ntries aro;nd the =orld =ith n;clear =eaFons...and not all of the< have ver@ Bood earl@ =arninB s@ste<s. If one of these thinBs hits C sa@ an@=here in India or PaListan toda@C =e =o;ld have a ver@ >ad sit;ation . It =o;ld >e a=f;ll@ hard to eKFlain to the< that it =asnQt the other B;@CR Worden Fointed o;t. Si<ilarl@C a fire>allca;sed >last over *el Aviv or Isla<a>ad Rco;ld >e easil@ conf;sed as a n;clear detonation and it <a@ triBBer a =arCR Worden said. /ean=hileC no= <ovinB thro;Bh the 4.S. Defense DeFart<ent circlesC Worden addedC is a st;d@ delvinB into iss;es of Fossi>l@ settinB ;F an asteroid =arninB s@ste<. *hat s@ste<
Worden said. R co;ld find a ho<e =ithin the Che@enne /o;ntain Co<FleK o;tside Colorado SFrinBsC Colorado. *he co<FleK is the nerve center for the North A<erican AerosFace Defense Co<<and :N'"ADJ and 4nited States SFace Co<<and <issions. NeKt steFs Where do =e Bo fro< hereG

An i<Fortant steFC Worden saidC is cataloBinB all of the o>?ects that are Fotentiall@ threateninBC do=n to those s<all o>?ects that co;ld hit and destro@ a cit@. *o do this t@Fe of chartinBC <ilitar@ strateBists no= cha<Fion a sFace->ased net=orL of sensors that LeeF an e@e on !arth-circlinB satellites. *hese sa<e sFace sentinels co;ld serve do;>le-ti<e and detect s<all asteroids C he said

*hat 8o04d ki44 bi44ions F+##+W "* A( 1??8 :)achlan 5orro=C (r;ce 1 (lairC Ira

elfandC 1eorBe )e=isC et alC A;thor Affiliation7 5ro< the Division of 1encral /edicine and Pri<ar@ CareC (eth Israel Deaconess /edical Center and arvard /edical SchoolC :).5.JM the (rooLinBs Instit;tionC WashinBtonC D.C. :(.1.(.JM Ph@sicians for Social "esFonsi>ilit@C :I. .JM /assach;setts Instit;te of *echnoloB@C :1.).C *PJM the DeFart<ent of !Fide<ioloB@ and Social /edicineC /ontefiore /edical Center and Al>ert !instein ColleBe of /edicineC :2S.JM (arr@ S. )ev@ Associates and *;fts 4niversit@ School of /edicineC :(.S.).JM the DeFart<ent of "adioloB@ and the Center for International Sec;rit@ and Ar<s ControlC Stanford 4niversit@C : .A.JM and /o;nt Sinai School of /edicineM Ne= !nBland To;rnal of /edicineC AFril 30J A <issile la;nch activated >@ false =arninB is th;s Fossi>le in >oth 4.S. and ";ssian arsenals. 5or the reasons noted a>oveC an accidental ";ssian la;nch is c;rrentl@

We have chosen to anal@Ae a scenario that falls in the <iddle ranBe of the danBer Fosed >@ an accidental attacL 7 the la;nch aBainst the 4nited States of the =eaFons on >oard a sinBle ";ssian Delta-I2 >allistic-<issile s;><arineC for t=o reasons. 5irstC the safeB;ards
considered the Breater risL. Several sFecific scenarios have >een considered >@ the (allistic /issile Defense 'rBaniAation of the DeFart<ent of Defense.31

aBainst the ;na;thoriAed la;nch of ";ssian s;><arine->ased <issiles are =eaLer than those aBainst either silo->ased or <o>ile land->ased rocLetsC >eca;se the ";ssian Beneral staff cannot contin;o;sl@ <onitor the stat;s of the cre= and <issiles or ;se electronic linLs to override ;na;thoriAed la;nches >@ the cre=s. SecondC the Delta-I2 is and =ill re<ain the <ainsta@ of the ";ssian strateBic s;><arine fleet.%+C3%C33 Delta-I2 s;><arines carr@ 1$ <issiles. !ach <issile is ar<ed =ith fo;r 100-Lt =arheads and has a ranBe of ,300 L<C =hich is s;fficient to reach al<ost an@ Fart of the continental 4nited States fro< t@Fical la;nch stations in the (arents Sea.34Css *hese <issiles are >elieved to >e ai<ed at RsoftR tarBetsC ;s;all@ in or near A<erican citiesC =hereas the <ore acc;rate silo->ased <issiles =o;ld attacL 4.S. <ilitar@ installations.3$ Altho;Bh a n;<>er of tarBetinB strateBies are Fossi>le for an@ Fartic;lar Delta-I2C it is Fla;si>le that t=o of its <issiles are assiBned to attacL =ar-s;FFortinB tarBets in each of eiBht 4.S. ;r>an areas. If 4 of the 1$ <issiles failed to reach their destinations >eca;se of <alf;nctions >efore or after the la;nchC then 1% <issiles carr@inB a total of 4, =arheads =o;ld reach their tarBets. P'*!N*IA) C'NS!94!NC!S '5 A N4C)!A" ACCID!N* We ass;<e that eiBht 4.S. ;r>an areas are hit7 fo;r =ith fo;r =arheads and fo;r =ith eiBht =arheads. We also ass;<e that the tarBets have >een selected accordinB to standard <ilitar@ Friorities7 ind;strialC financialC and transFortation sites and other co<Fonents of the infrastr;ct;re that are essential for s;FFortinB or recoverinB fro< =ar. Since lo=altit;de >;rsts are reP;ired to ens;re the destr;ction of str;ct;res s;ch as docLsC concrete r;n=a@sC steel-reinforced >;ildinBsC and ;nderBro;nd facilitiesC <ost if not all detonations =ill ca;se s;>stantial earl@ fallo;t. Ph@sical !ffects 4nder o;r <odelC the n;<>ers of i<<ediate deaths are deter<ined Fri<aril@ >@ the area of the Rs;FerfiresR that =o;ld res;lt fro< a ther<on;clear eKFlosion over a cit@.

5ires =o;ld iBnite across

the eKFosed area to ro;Bhl@ 10 or <ore calories of radiant heat Fer sP;are centi<eterC coalescinB into a Biant firestor< =ith h;rricane-force =inds and averaBe air te<Ferat;res a>ove the >oilinB Foint of =ater. Within this areaC the co<>ined effects of s;Ferheated =indC toKic s<oLeC and co<>;stion Bases =o;ld res;lt in a death rate aFFroachinB 100 Fercent.3Q 5or each 100-Lt =arheadC the radi;s of the circle of nearl@ 100 Fercent short-ter< lethalit@ =o;ld >e 4.3 L< :%.+ <ilesJC the ranBe =ithin =hich 10 cal Fer sP;are centi<eter is delivered to the earthQs s;rface fro< the hot fire>all ;nder =eather conditions in =hich the visi>ilit@ is , L< :5 <ilesJC =hich is lo= for al<ost all =eather conditions. We ;sed Cens;s CD to calc;late the residential FoF;lation =ithin these areas accordinB to 1--0 4.S. Cens;s dataC ad?;stinB for areas =here circles fro< different =arheads overlaFFed.3, In <an@ ;r>an areasC the da@ti<e FoF;lationC and therefore the cas;altiesC =o;ld >e <;ch hiBher. 5allo;t *he clo;d of radioactive d;st Frod;ced >@ lo=altit;de >;rsts =o;ld >e deFosited as fallo;t do=n=ind of the tarBet area. *he eKact areas of fallo;t =o;ld not >e Fredicta>leC >eca;se the@ =o;ld deFend on =ind direction and sFeedC >;t there =o;ld >e larBe Aones of Fotentiall@ lethal radiation eKFos;re. With averaBe =ind sFeeds of %4 to 4, L< Fer ho;r :15 to 30 <iles Fer ho;rJC a 100-Lt lo=-altit;de detonation =o;ld res;lt in a radiation Aone 30 to $0 L< :%0 to 40 <ilesJ lonB and 3 to 5 L< :% to 3 <ilesJ =ide in =hich eKFosed and ;nFrotected Fersons =o;ld receive a lethal total dose of $00 rad =ithin siK ho;rs.3- With

radioactive conta<ination of food and =ater

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 11/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM s;FFliesC the >reaLdo=n of refriBeration and sanitation s@ste<sC radiation-ind;ced i<<;ne s;FFressionC and cro=dinB in relief facilitiesC eFide<ics of infectio;s diseases =o;ld >e liLel@ .40 Deaths *a>le 1 sho=s the esti<ates of earl@ deaths for each cl;ster of tarBets in or near the eiBht <a?or ;r>an areasC =ith a total of $C,3,C000 initial deaths. 1iven the <an@ indeter<inate
varia>les :e.B.C the altit;de of each =arheadQs detonationC the direction of the =indC the FoF;lation densit@ in the fallo;t AoneC the effectiveness of evac;ation Froced;resC and the availa>ilit@ of shelter and relief s;FFliesJC a relia>le esti<ate of the total n;<>er of s;>seP;ent deaths fro< fallo;t and other seP;elae of the attacL is not Fossi>le. With 4,

it is Fla;si>le that these secondar@ deaths =o;ld o;tn;<>er the i<<ediate deaths ca;sed >@ the firestor<s . /edical Care in the
eKFlosions Fro>a>l@ res;ltinB in tho;sands of sP;are <iles of lethal fallo;t aro;nd ;r>an areas =here there are tho;sands of Fersons Fer sP;are <ileC

After<ath !arlier assess<ents have doc;<ented in detail the Fro>le<s of carinB for the in?;red s;rvivors of a n;clear attacL7 the need for care =o;ld co<Fletel@ over=hel< the availa>le health care reso;rces.1-5C41 /ost of the <a?or <edical centers in each ;r>an area lie =ithin the Aone of total destr;ction. *he n;<>er of Fatients =ith severe >;rns and other critical in?;ries =o;ld far eKceed the availa>le reso;rces of all critical care facilities nation=ideC incl;dinB the co;ntr@Qs 1+0, >eds in >;rn-care ;nits :<ost of =hich are alread@ occ;FiedJ.4% *he danBer of intense radiation eKFos;re =o;ld <aLe it ver@ diffic;lt for e<erBenc@ Fersonnel even to enter the affected areas. *he nearl@ co<Flete destr;ction of local and reBional transFortationC co<<;nicationsC and enerB@ net=orLs =o;ld <aLe it al<ost i<Fossi>le to transFort the severel@ in?;red to <edical facilities o;tside the affected area. After the 1--5 earthP;aLe in 0o>eC TaFanC =hich res;lted in a <;ch lo=er n;<>er of cas;alties :$500 FeoFle died and 34C-00 =ere in?;redJ and =hich had fe= of the co<FlicatinB factors that =o;ld acco<Fan@ a n;clear attacLC there =ere lonB dela@s >efore o;tside <edical assistance arrived.41 5"'/ DAN1!" *' P"!2!N*I'N P;>lic health Frofessionals no= recoBniAe that <an@C if not <ostC in?;ries and deaths fro< violence and accidents res;lt fro< a Fredicta>le series of events that areC at least in FrinciFleC Freventa>le.44C45 *he

direct toll that =o;ld res;lt fro< an accidental n;clear attacL of the t@Fe descri>ed a>ove =o;ld d=arf all Frior accidents in histor@. 5;rther<oreC s;ch an attacLC even if accidentalC <iBht Fro<Ft a retaliator@ resFonse res;ltinB in an all-o;t n;clear eKchanBe . *he World ealth 'rBaniAation has esti<ated that this =o;ld res;lt in >illions of direct and indirect cas;alties =orld=ide.4 S2a44 asteroid strike a4one 8o04d ki44 2i44ions Worden 2002 - 4nited States SFace Co<<andC Peterson Air 5orce (ase :'cto>er %4C S.P.C D /ilitar@ PersFectives on the Near-!arth '>?ect :NeoJ *hreat. E NASA
WorLshoF on Scientific "eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of /ost FeoFle Lno= of the *;nB;sLa N!' striLe in Si>eria in 1-0,. An

aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC httF7&&===.noao.ed;&<eetinBs&<itiBation&<edia&arlinBton.eKtended.Fdf FB. 101 J

o>?ect Fro>a>l@ less than 100 <eters in dia<eter str;cL Si>eriaC releasinB eP;ivalent enerB@ of ;F to 10 <eBatons. /an@ eKFerts >elieve there =ere t=o other s<aller events later in the cent;r@. one in Central Asia in the 1-40s and one in the A<aAon in the 1-30s. In 1--$C o;r satellite sensors detected a >;rst over 1reenland of aFFroKi<atel@ 100 Liloton @ield. ad an@ of these str;cL over a FoF;lated areaC tho;sands and FerhaFs h;ndreds of tho;sands <iBht have Ferished. !KFerts no= tell ;s that an even =orse catastroFhe than a land i<Fact of a *;nB;sLasiAe event =o;ld >e an ocean i<Fact near a heavil@ FoF;lated shore. *he res;ltinB tidal =ave co;ld in;ndate shorelines for h;ndreds of <iles and Fotentiall@ Lill <illions. *here are h0ndreds of tho0sands of ob3ects the siAe of the *0ng0ska !"+ that co2e near the earth& We kno8 the orbits of 30st a fe8& ntentiona4 8ar 8onDt occ0r and s2a44 conf4icts 8onDt esca4ate MA!D"(EA>M 1??? :/ichaelC Professor of A<erican 5oreiBn Polic@C Tohns oFLins 4niversit@M DirectorC Pro?ect on !ast-West "elationsC Co;ncil on

5oreiBn "elationsC D*ranscriFt7 is /a?or War '>soleteGE *ranscriFt of de>ate =ith Tohn /earshei<erC C5"C 5e> %5C httF7&&===.ciaonet.orB&conf&cfr10&J /@ arB;<ent sa@sC tacitl@C that =hile this Foint of vie=C =hich =as =idel@ >elieved 100 @ears aBoC =as not tr;e thenC there are reasons to thinL that it is tr;e no=. What is that

arB;<entG It is that <a?or =ar is o>solete. (@ <a?or =arC I <ean =ar =aBed >@ the <ost Fo=erf;l <e<>ers of the international s@ste<C ;sinB all of their reso;rces over a Frotracted Feriod of ti<e =ith revol;tionar@ BeoFolitical conseP;ences. *here have >een fo;r s;ch =ars in the <odern Feriod7 the =ars of the 5rench "evol;tionC World War IC World War IIC and the Cold War. 5e= tho;Bh the@ have >eenC their conseP;ences have >een <on;<ental. *he@ areC >@ farC the <ost infl;ential events in <odern histor@. /odern histor@ =hich canC in factC >e seen as a series of aftershocLs to these fo;r earthP;aLes. So if I a< riBhtC then =hat has >een the <otor of Folitical histor@ for the last t=o cent;ries that has >een t;rned offG *his =arC I arB;eC this Lind of =arC is o>soleteM less than i<Fossi>leC >;t <ore than ;nliLel@ . What do I <ean >@ o>soleteG If I <a@ P;ote fro< the article on =hich this Fresentation is >asedC a coF@ of =hich @o; received =hen co<inB inC D /a?or =ar is o>solete in a =a@ that st@les of

/a?or =ar is o>solete in the =a@ that slaver@C d;elinBC or foot->indinB are o>solete. It is a social Fractice that =as once considered nor<alC ;sef;lC even desira>leC >;t that no=
dress are o>solete. It is so<ethinB that is o;t of fashion andC =hile it co;ld >e revivedC there is no Fresent de<and for it. see<s odio;s. It is o>solete in the =a@ that the central FlanninB of econo<ic activit@ is o>solete. It is a Fractice once reBarded as a Fla;si>leC indeed a s;FeriorC =a@ of achievinB a sociall@ desira>le BoalC >;t that chanBinB conditions have <ade ineffective at >estC co;nterFrod;ctive at =orst.E Wh@ is this soG /ost si<Fl@C the

costs have risen and the >enefits of <a?or =ar have shriveled. *he costs of fiBhtinB s;ch a =ar are eKtre<el@ hiBh >eca;se of the advent in the <iddle of this cent;r@ of n;clear =eaFonsC >;t the@ =o;ld have >een hiBh even had <anLind never sFlit the ato<. As for the >enefitsC these no= see<C at least fro< the Foint of vie= of the <a?or Fo=ersC <odest to non-eKistent. *he traditional <otives for =arfare are in retreatC if not eKtinct. War is no lonBer reBarded >@ an@oneC Fro>a>l@ not even Sadda< ;ssein after his ;nhaFF@ eKFerienceC as a Fa@inB FroFosition. And as for the ideas on >ehalf of =hich <a?or =ars have >een =aBed in the FastC these are in steeF decline. ere the collaFse of co<<;nis< =as an i<Fortant <ilestoneC for that ideoloB@ =as inherentl@ >ellicose. *his is not to sa@ that the =orld has reached the end of ideoloB@M P;ite the contrar@. (;t the ideoloB@ that is no= in the ascendantC o;r o=nC li>eralis<C tends to >e Facific. /oreoverC I =o;ld arB;e that three Fost-Cold War develoF<ents have <ade <a?or =ar even less liLel@ than it =as after 1-45. 'ne of these is the rise of de<ocrac@C for de<ocraciesC I >elieveC

tend to >e Feacef;l. No= carried to its <ost eKtre<e concl;sionC this event;ates in an arB;<ent <ade >@ so<e Fro<inent Folitical scientists that de<ocracies never Bo to =ar =ith one another. I =o;ldn8t Bo that far. I don8t >elieve that this is a la= of histor@C liLe a la= of nat;reC >eca;se I >elieve there are no s;ch la=s of histor@. (;t I do >elieve there is so<ethinB in it. I >elieve there is a Feacef;l tendenc@ inherent in de<ocrac@. No= it8s tr;e that one i<Fortant ca;se of =ar has not chanBed =ith the end of the Cold War. *hat is the str;ct;re of the international s@ste<C =hich is anarchic. And realistsC to =ho< 5areed has referred and of =ho< Tohn /earshei<er and o;r B;est 0en WaltA are FerhaFs the t=o <ost leadinB eKFonents in this co;ntr@ and the =orld at the <o<entC arB;e that that str;ct;re deter<ines international activit@C for it leads sovereiBn states to have to FreFare to defend the<selvesC and those FreFarations sooner or later iss;e in =ar. I arB;eC ho=everC that a

Fost-Cold War innovation co;nteracts the effects of anarch@. *his is =hat I have called in <@ 1--$ >ooLC *he Da=n of Peace in !;roFeC co<<on sec;rit@. (@ co<<on sec;rit@ I <ean a reBi<e of neBotiated ar<s li<its that red;ce the insec;rit@ that anarch@ inevita>l@ Frod;ces >@ transFarenc@-ever@ state can Lno=

Asteroids Aff 12/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM =hat =eaFons ever@ other state has and =hat it is doinB =ith the<-and thro;Bh the FrinciFle of defense do<inanceC the reconfiB;ration thro;Bh neBotiations of <ilitar@ forces to <aLe the< <ore s;ita>le for defense and less for attacL . So<e caveats areC
indeedC in order =here co<<on sec;rit@ is concerned. It8s not ;niversal. It eKists onl@ in !;roFe. And there it is certainl@ not irreversi>le. And I sho;ld add that =hat I have called co<<on sec;rit@ is not a ca;seC >;t a conseP;enceC of the <a?or forces that have <ade =ar less liLel@. States enter into co<<on sec;rit@ arranBe<ents =hen the@ have alread@C for other reasonsC decided that the@ do not =ish to Bo to =ar. WellC the third feat;re of the Fost-Cold War international s@ste< that see<s to <e to lend itself to =arlessness is the novel distinction Frevio;sl@ a ca;se of conflict and no=

>et=een the FeriFher@ and the coreC >et=een the Fo=erf;l states and the less Fo=erf;l ones. *his =as is far less i<Fortant. *o P;ote fro< the article aBainC D While for <;ch of recorded histor@ local conflicts =ere a>sor>ed into Breat-Fo=er conflictsC in the =aLe of the Cold WarC =ith the ind;strial de<ocracies de>ellicised and ";ssia and China Freocc;Fied =ith internal affairsC there is no Breat-Fo=er conflict into =hich the <an@ local conflicts that have er;Fted can >e a>sor>ed. *he Breat chess Ba<e of international Folitics is finished C or at least s;sFended. A Fa=n is no= ?;st a Fa=nC not a sentr@ standinB B;ard aBainst an attacL on a LinB .E !o risk of de4iberate n0c4ear 8ar #+*HS*" !@ A>"# A!D S ")"( 2004

:)indaC editorC CatherineC <anaBinB editorC and TonasC assistant editor of the (;lletin of Ato<ic ScientistsC (ASC Nove<>er&Dece<>erC httF7&&===.the>;lletin.orB&article.FhFGartHofnInd04rothsteinJ Is an inco<inB n;clear <issile attacL Fla;si>leG #esC >;t ;nliLel@. *he

Cold War is overC and the >allistic <issile threat fro< n;clearcaFa>le nations is eKtre<el@ <inor. In 5e>r;ar@ %001C the Defense IntelliBence ABenc@ listed IraPC IranC and North 0orea as Rco;ntries of concernR that <iBht so<eda@ field lonB-ranBeC W/D-caFa>le <issilesC and ";ssia and China as nations eKFandinB their lonB-ranBe <issile FroBra<s. 'ne Fres;<es IraP is no= off the list. As to Iran and North 0oreaC >oth nations have decent <issile caFa>ilitiesC >;t Iran cannot striLe the 4nited StatesC and <ost anal@sts >elieve the sa<e a>o;t North 0oreaC desFite its >oasts . 'n the other handC North 0orea has n;clear <aterialC and Iran is >elieved to >e =orLinB to=ard a n;clear =eaFons caFa>ilit@. China has a =hoFFinB %0 DonB 5enB <issiles that can reach A<erica. :*he 4nited States has close to $C000 oFerational strateBic n;clear =eaFons C as the (;lletinQs /a@&T;ne RN;clear Note>ooLR reForted.J ";ssiaQs caFa>ilities are <ore co<Fara>le to A<ericaQs C and ";ssia is eKFandinB its caFa>ilitiesC accordinB to the T;l@&A;B;st RN;clear Note>ooLCR >;t a Flanned attacL fro< /osco= is eKtre<el@ i<Fro>a>le .

Asteroids Aff 1-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

1A$.94an
94an/ the !ationa4 Aerona0tics and S6ace Ad2inistration sho04d s0bstantia44: increase its efforts to s0r5e: !ear "arth +b3ects inc40ding both gro0nd. and s6ace.based tracking 2eas0res&

Asteroids Aff 14/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

1A$.S45
*he 64an 2akes effecti5e 2itigation 6ossib4e against a44 !"+s !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

Co<>ined Bro;nd- and sFace->ased s;rve@s have a n;<>er of advantaBes. S;ch s;rve@s discover <ore N!'s of all siAesC incl;dinB a s;>stantial n;<>er s<aller than 140 <eters in dia<eter. *hese co<>ined s;rve@s also Frovide <ore characteriAation data a>o;t the entire N!' FoF;lation. With >oth infrared and visi>le data for <ost tarBetsC it =o;ld >e Fossi>le to o>tain acc;rate dia<eter esti<ates for all o>?ectsC as =ell as <eas;re<ents of their al>edos and their s;rface and ther<al FroFerties. *hese hiBh-val;e characteriAation data co;ld helF to B;ide <itiBation ca<FaiBn st;dies. Additionall@C a d;al s;rve@ Frovides <;ch infor<ation on the FoF;lation of o>?ects s<aller than 140 <eters in dia<eter . S6ace.based sensors 8o04d find ne8 ob3ects and faci4itate e764oration !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ %.1. N!' Search7 *o i<Fle<ent this reco<<endationC the

*asL 5orce reco<<ends that NASA i<<ediatel@ initiate a sFace->ased infrared telescoFic N!' search Fro?ect as the Fri<ar@ <eans of <eetinB the conBressionall@ <andated 1eorBe !. (ro=n N!' S;rve@ Boal. NASA =as tasLed to discover -0 Fercent of the N!'s larBer than 140 <eters >@ the end of %0%0 as Fart of the NASA A;thoriAation
Act of %005 :P;>lic )a= No. 10--155J. (oth Bro;nd- and sFace->ased oFtions for <eetinB the 1eorBe !. (ro=nC Tr. N!' S;rve@ Boals have >een investiBated. Altho;Bh NASA sho;ld contin;e to assist state-of -the-art Bro;nd->ased oFtical s;rve@sC incl;dinB those co<inB on line or Flanned >@ other aBencies :e.B.C PanS*A""SC )SS*JC one or <ore

sFace->ased infrared :I"J telescoFes in an or>it interior to !arth8s :e.B.C a 2en;s-liLe or>itJ offers several search efficienc@ advantaBes. Co<Fared =ith Bro;nd->ased oFtical s@ste<sC s;ch sFace->ased s@ste<s Fossess Breater discover@ efficienc@ and can <ore acc;ratel@ deter<ine the siAes and or>its of Fotentiall@ threateninB o>?ects . *he cost of s;ch a s;rve@ asset is co<Fara>le to the <;ltiFle dedicated Bro;nd->ased alternatives reP;iredC and =ill raFidl@ <eet the leBislated co<Fletion Boal :Fro>a>l@ =ithin seven @earsJ. Additionall@C a sFace->ased s;rve@C =ith its advantaBeo;s o>servinB Beo<etr@ and freP;enc@C =ill ena>le Fro<Ft and Frecise or>it deter<ination of ne=l@ discovered N!'s in colla>oration =ith Bro;nd->ased oFtical and radar s@ste<sC red;cinB the need for act;al deflection ca<FaiBns . NASA sho;ld also eKa<ine the
additional costs and o>servinB advantaBes of a Fair of s;ch 2en;s-or>it s;rve@ telescoFesC >oth to co<Flete the overall s;rve@ <ore raFidl@ and aid in collaFsinB the error elliFse of =orriso<e N!'s. *hese enhanced caFa>ilities <a@ f;rther red;ce ;nnecessar@ la;nches of in sit; tracLinB or deflection sFacecraft.

Altho;Bh so<e N!'s are Fotentiall@ haAardo;sC their Feriodic close aFFroaches to !arth also <aLe the< a<onB the <ost accessi>le o>?ects in the solar s@ste< for ro>otic and h;<an eKFloration. A sFace->ased I" s;rve@ telescoFe =o;ld efficientl@ find >oth eKFloration tarBets and threateninB N!'s c;rrentl@ inaccessi>le to o>servation >@ Bro;nd>ased s@ste<s. Def4ection 8o04d be eas: E+**B" et a4 2004 :Willia< 5. (ottLeC Tr.C So;th=est "esearch Instit;teM Alessandro /or>idelliC '>servatoire de la CVote d8AA;rM "o>ert TedicLeC 4niversit@

of a=ai8iM /itiBation 'f aAardo;s Co<ets And AsteroidsC F. 1-%J It is no= Benerall@ acceFted that i<Facts of larBe N!'s reFresent a haAard to h;<an civiliAation. *his iss;e =as >ro;Bht into foc;s >@ the FioneerinB =orL of AlvareA et al. :1-,0JC =ho sho=ed that the eKtinction of n;<ero;s sFecies at the Cretaceo;sW*ertiar@ BeoloBic >o;ndar@ =as al<ost certainl@ ca;sed >@ the i<Fact of a <assive asteroid :at a site later identified =ith the ChicK;l;> crater in the #;catan Fenins;laJ : ilde>rand et al. 1--1J. *oda@C the 4nited NationsC the 4S ConBressC the !;roFean Co;ncilC the 40

a<onB all =orld=ide danBers that threaten h;<anit@C the N!' haAard <a@ >e the easiest to coFe =ithC Frovided adeP;ate reso;rces are allocated to identif@ all N!'s of relevant siAe. 'nce =e can forecast Fotential collisions >et=een danBero;s N!'s and !arthC action can >e taLen to <itiBate the Fotential conseP;ences .
Parlia<entC the IA4C NASAC and !SA have all <ade official state<ents that descri>e the i<Fortance of st;d@inB and ;nderstandinB the N!' FoF;lation. In factC

Asteroid risks are 0ni10eitDs the on4: disaster 8e can tota44: a5oid Morrison 200; - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC D DefendinB the !arth ABainst Asteroids7 *he Case for a 1lo>al "esFonse E
httF7&&===.Frinceton.ed;&sBs&F;>lications&sBs&Fdf&13X%01-%X%0/orrision.Fdf Science and 1lo>al Sec;rit@C 137,+W103 J No

asteroids have >een discovered so far that threaten an i<Fact over the neKt several cent;ries. 'f co;rseC =e can sa@ nothinB a>o;t Fossi>le hits fro< the ;ndiscovered fraction of the N!A FoF;lation. *hese s;rve@s are dee<ed to >e =orth=hile >eca;se =e have the technoloB@C at least in FrinciFleC to deflect a threateninB asteroidC Biven decades of =arninB. *he i<Fact haAard is ;niP;e in that it is Fossi>le to avoid the da<aBe entirel@ . In <ost nat;ral haAard areasC D<itiBationE consists of =a@s to Flan for a disaster or to deal =ith the disaster after it haFFens. 'nl@ in the case of cos<ic i<Facts can =e develoF <itiBation Flans =ith the o>?ective of avoidinB the disaster itself. *he 64an s6i44s o5er to i26ro5e a44 other !"+ 2issions !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 1;/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM NASA8s N!' research is a Dthree-di<ensionalE activit@ that advances o;r Lno=ledBe in solar s@ste< scienceC h;<an eKFlorationC and Planetar@ Defense. 5or a relativel@ s<all incre<ental invest<ent in instr;<entation or caFa>ilit@ on science or eKFloration sFacecraftC N!' <issions desiBned for one Boal can ret;rn s;>stantial infor<ation ;sef;l to NASA8s Planetar@ Defense activities . 5or eKa<FleC Planetar@ Defense <ission Boals :e.B. Frecision or>it deter<inationM <eas;re<ents of <assC densit@C Forosit@C and rotation stateM investiBation of the <o<ent;< <;ltiFlierM searchinB for N!' satellitesC etc.J =o;ld also f;lfill <an@ f;nda<ental scientific and h;<an eKFloration o>?ectives. In t;rnC ro>otic science sFacecraft can de<onstrate the Frecise FroKi<it@ oFerations and B;idance alBorith<s necessar@ for Frecision Dslo= F;shE deflection techniP;es. In FreFaration for visits >@ h;<an eKFlorersC investiBation of a N!'8s interior str;ct;reC Fh@sical FroFertiesC and sta>ilit@ of s;rface <aterials =ill f;rnish data ;sef;l for other deflection techniP;esC s;ch as Linetic i<Fact and reBolith a>lation. *i<e is a fo;rth di<ension for N!' research. !arl@ inteBration of Planetar@ Defense o>?ectives into NASA8s research and eKFloration <issions Frovides a cost-effective <eans to increase the <at;rit@ of o;r technoloB@ to <eet f;t;re i<Fact threats and eli<inate d;Flicate fliBht <issions. 'verallC the inteBration of Planetar@ Defense investiBations into scientific and h;<an eKFloration <issions increases the ret;rn fro< an@ of NASA8s N!' <issionsC <eetinB the needs of <anaBersC Folic@ <aLersC the science co<<;nit@ and the F;>lic. +n4: !ASA can do the 64an F+#*>!+ 2007 :D . ". 3+3+7 *o Frovide for National Science 5o;ndation and National Aerona;tics and SFace Ad<inistration ;tiliAation of the Areci>o
'>servator@CE >ill introd;ced 'ct 3C httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI%5$0-J :1J Areci>o

'>servator@ is the =orldQs larBest sinBle-aFert;re telescoFe. It has >een recoBniAed as an !lectrical !nBineerinB /ilestone >@ the Instit;te of !lectrical and !lectronics !nBineers and as a /echanical !nBineerinB )and<arL >@ the
;niverse. :3J Areci>o

A<erican Societ@ of /echanical !nBineers. Its visitor center dra=s 1%0C000 visitors each @ear. :%J Areci>o radio astrono<@ led to the first discover@ of Flanets o;tside o;r o=n solar s@ste<C the first discover@ of a >inar@ F;lsar :res;ltinB in a No>el PriAeJC and the first detailed three-di<ensional <aFFinB of ho= BalaKies are distri>;ted in the incl;dinB near-!arth

'>servator@Qs Flanetar@ radar has ;niP;e a>ilities =orld=ide for research on o;r solar s@ste<C asteroids. (esides their scientific i<FortanceC near-!arth asteroids <a@ >e >oth a siBnificant haAard to !arth and a Fotential so;rce of f;t;re reso;rces. :4J Areci>o '>servator@ is a leadinB 4nited States la>orator@ for research on !arthQs ionosFhere. :5J ConBress has <andated that the National Aerona;tics and SFace Ad<inistration detectC tracLC cataloB;eC and characteriAe near-!arth asteroids and co<ets in order to Frovide =arninB and <itiBation of the Fotential haAard of s;ch near-!arth o>?ects to the !arth. (@ >einB on the forefront of >asic research involvinB Near-!arth '>?ectsC SFace WeatherC and 1lo>al Cli<ate ChanBeC the Areci>o '>servator@ is an o;tstandinB reso;rce to ConBress and to the A<erican PeoFle. :$J *he efforts taLen to date >@ the National Aerona;tics and SFace Ad<inistration and the National Science 5o;ndation for detectinB and characteriAinB the haAards of !arth or>it-crossinB asteroids and co<ets are not s;fficient to the threat Fosed >@ s;ch o>?ects to ca;se =idesFread destr;ction and loss of life. :+J *he Beneral =elfare and sec;rit@ of the 4nited States reP;ire that the ;niP;e co<Fetence of the National Aerona;tics and SFace Ad<inistration in science and enBineerinB s@ste<s >e directed to detectinBC tracLinBC cataloBinBC and characteriAinB near-!arth asteroids and co<ets. *he Areci>o '>servator@ is an inval;a>le and ;niP;e asset in =arninB and <itiBatinB Fotential haAards Fosed >@ near-!arth o>?ects . !ASA is ke: !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad
NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010-

5or <ore than a decadeC NASA has >een searchinB for near-!arth o>?ects :N!'sJ that <a@ Fose a Fotential i<Fact threat to !arth. (oth the leBislative and eKec;tive >ranches are considerinB =hat role NASA <a@ Fla@ in eKFandinB its N!' search and develoFinB the caFa>ilit@ to Frevent or <itiBate a f;t;re i<Fact. *he sFace aBenc@ has >road eKFertise in scientific eKFloration and characteriAation of near!arth asteroids :N!AsJ and co<ets :N!CsJC and NASA8s deeF sFace oFerations eKFerience co;ld ena>le the develoF<ent of deflection technoloBies to >e ;sed to divert a N!' threateninB an i<Fact . Ad5ance 8arning is ke: to 6re5ent n0c4ear def4ection 8hich 8o04d destro: the +0ter S6ace *reat:it a4so 6re5ents e7tre2is2 and 6anic E#A!D"!E>#) 2011 :Tohn !. (randen>;rB is a Flas<a Fh@sicist at 'r>ital *echnoloBies in /adison WisconsinC =orLinB on sFace Flas<a technoloBies and
sFace FroF;lsionC DPreFarinB for a 5;t;re Asteroid CrisisCE Astrono<ical "evie=C /a@ 1$C httF7&&astrorevie=.co<&iss;e&%011&article&FreFarinB-for-a-f;t;re-asteroid-crisisJ

*he detection of a larBe asteroid on a collision co;rse =ith earth is inevita>le and co;ld create an ;nFrecedented crisis in h;<an affairs. We live in a danBero;s cos<os that doles o;t death as =ell as life. Asteroid i<Facts are the one danBer that h;<anit@ faces =hich has the Fotential to =iFe it o;t. *he de<ise of the dinosa;rs >@ the ChiK;l;>e i<Fact stands as eKa<Fle
of =hat haFFens to sFecies faced =ith the asteroid threatC =ho have neither the FerceFtionC the caFa>ilit@C or the orBaniAation to rise to s;ch a challenBe. S;ch an asteroid crisis =ill test h;<anit@8s a>ilities across the f;ll sFectr;< 7 its telescoFe and sFace technoloB@C its a>ilit@ to deter<ine the characteristics C or>itC and i<Fact area of the asteroidC and th;s its ti<e- to-i<FactC its a>ilit@ to FreFare =hatever co;nter<eas;res are reP;iredC fro< si<Fle direct i<Factor or n;clear rocLets or =eaFonsC and finall@ to Bovern<ent and societal reaction. I eKFlored this t@Fe of crisis <entall@ >@ =ritinB a technicall@ acc;rate novel a>o;t it. In the novel I eKFlored the dra<atic case of a ChicKl;>e class i<Factor discovered =ith onl@ a @ear8s =arninB. It

is one thinB to solve s;ch a Fro>le< in the a>stractM it is another to sit

Asteroids Aff Michigan Debate 2011 1'/84 7 Week SeniorsWHAM <entall@ in i<Fact Aone. *elescoFes and sFace technoloBies Bive ;s an advantaBe over the dinosa;rs in s;rvival. We have the a>ilit@ to <aF s;rro;ndinB asteroids and Flot their siAeC characteristics and or>its. *he or>it of an identified i<Factor Bives ;s the all i<Fortant ti<e-to-i<Fact and its i<Fact Aone on !arth. *he siAe and characteristics of the asteroid =ill @ield infor<ation on the da<aBe of the Fro?ected i<Fact and the ranBe of reP;ired co;nter<eas;res. It is as Fossi>le the asteroid that triBBers this f;t;re crisis =ill >e discovered >@ an a<ate;r in his >acL@ard as >@ a Bovern<ent controlled sFace telescoFeC so controllinB F;>lic Lno=ledBe <a@ >e diffic;lt. 'f the i<Fortant Fara<eters s;ch a ne=l@ discovered i<Factor Fro>a>l@ none is <ore i<Fortant than the ti<e-to-i<Fact . *he ti<e-to-i<Fact for an i<Factor is so i<Fortant >eca;se all co;nter<eas;res reP;ire ti<e and caref;l st;d@. *he ti<e-to-i<Fact for Fositivel@ indentified i<Factor =ill Fro>a>l@ >e of the order of @earsC lonBer than this and the or>it
itself cannot >e Fredicted acc;ratel@ and shorter than this is ver@ ;nliLel@ Biven o;r Fresent Lno=ledBe of the near-!arth-asteroid FoF;lation. 5ort;natel@C larBerC and therefore <ore <assive asteroidsC are easier to detectC so the =orst case scenario of a larBe asteroid fo;nd onl@ shortl@ >efore i<Fact is the least liLel@. o=everC it can >e said that the

shorter the ti<e to i<Fact and the <ore <assive the asteroidC the <ore severe =ill >e the crisis that ens;es and the <ore eKtre<e the co;nter<eas;res reP;ired aBainst it. Co;nter<eas;res aBainst Fositivel@ identified i<Factor of siBnificant siAe are ;lti<atel@ co<Flicated >@ the ';ter SFace *reat@ of 1-$+. 5or s<all asteroidsC =ith lonB =arninB ti<esC the i<Fact of a sFace Fro>e <a@ >e s;fficient to n;dBe it o;t of a danBero;s or>it. o=everC for larBe asteroidsC Fartic;larl@ those =ith short =arninB ti<esC n;clear =eaFons =ill i<<ediatel@ aFFear on the ta>le of oFtions . *his creates Fro>le<s =ith the ';ter SFace *reat@ of 1-$+. *he *reat@C siBned and ratified >@ the 4S and ever@ other sFace caFa>le nation has t=o i<Fortant cla;ses 1. It for>ids clai<s of national sovereiBnt@ over an@ heavenl@ >od@ or reBion of sFace. %. It for>ids the Fresence and ;se of n;clear =eaFons in sFace . *echnicall@ thenC no nation <a@ have the riBht to chanBe the or>it of an asteroidC since this =o;ld assert sovereiBnt@. It is also certainl@ for>idden to ;se n;clear =eaFons to tr@ to deflect or destro@ s;ch an i<Factor. It =o;ld >e >est if eKceFtions to the *reat@ =ere neBotiated >eforehand to cover asteroid continBenciesC ho=everC s;ch neBotiations have not even >eB;n and =o;ld taLe @ears. If an asteroid crisis >eBins to<orro=C the treat@ <a@ si<Fl@ >e iBnored or declared void. 1overn<ents <a@ si<Fl@ decide to FicL ;F
the Fieces of the 1-$+ *reat@ after=ards. 1overn<ent action and societal reaction are t=o areas needinB st;d@ in FreFaration for an asteroid crisis. It does little Bood if =arninB =as Biven and co;nter<eas;res are availa>leC if the nation or nations affected are too d@sf;nctional to <aLe ;se of the<. PanicC

FaranoiaC Faral@sisC desFairC doo<sda@ c;ltsC terroris<C and inco<Fetence >eco<e deadl@ haAards in an asteroid crisis . S;rvivinB a severe asteroid crisis =ill reP;ire not ?;st technical sLill >;t tr;e statecraft. o=everC all these Fro>le<s can >e solved. *he Le@ to dealinB =ith a f;t;re asteroid crisis is to foresee and FreFare for one .

*** !H"#"!$%

Asteroids Aff 17/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

2A$ !H"#"!$%/9#+EAE ( *%
Asteroid co44ision is ine5itab4e. a ne8 s:ste2 for detection and def4ection 20st be de5e4o6ed Earbee %00? :4&1C (rent W.C BS, Aerospace Engineering degree from UT Austin; MS in Engineering from the Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics at
the University of Texas, Austin speciali ing in Astrodynamics and Spacecraft Mission Design, currently !or"ing as an Aerospace Engineer and #lanetary Defense Scientist !ith the Emergent Space Technologies company in $reen%elt, Maryland, teaches graduate Astrodynamics in the Department of Aerospace Engineering at The University of Maryland, &ollege #ar", '#lanetary Defense(, httF7&&===.airFo=er.a;.af.<il&aF?international&&aF?-s&%00-&1tri0-&>ar>eeenB.ht<J&&D*

*hro;Bho;t histor@ o;r Flanet has >een >o<>arded >@ Near-!arth '>?ects :N!'sJC =hich are asteroids and co<ets =hose or>its aro;nd the S;n ca;se the< to Fass near !arth. *he or>its of these celestial o>?ects Brad;all@ chanBe over ti<eC ca;sinB so<e of their or>its to event;all@ intersect !arthQs or>it. An o>?ect =hose or>it intersects !arthQs or>it =ill collide =ith !arthC if the ti<inB is riBhtC at the Foint =here the or>ital Faths intersect. We see evidence of this thro;Bho;t each @ear as =e =itness the =ide variet@ of ann;al <eteor sho=ers ca;sed >@ !arth FassinB thro;Bh de>ris left in the =aLe of co<ets or>itinB the S;n. As o;r a>ilit@ to detect N!'s has i<Froved =e have discovered <ore and <ore of the< in o;r celestial neiBh>orhood. !arthQs or>ital reBion aro;nd the S;n is densel@ FoF;lated =ith N!'s C as sho=n in fiB. 1C and it is onl@ the vastness of sFace and the co<Farativel@ tin@ siAes of celestial >odies that <aLes collisions infreP;ent. While collisions are infreP;entC the@ are also inevita>le. ';r /oonQs s;rface is covered in i<Fact craters and <an@ craters have >een discovered and are still >einB discovered on !arth. *he /oonQs s;rface does not eKFerience =eatherinB d;e to <eteoroloBical and BeoloBical Frocesses and so the craters are Freserved and eas@ to see. (@ contrastC !arth is a ver@ <eteoroloBicall@ and BeoloBicall@ active =orld so the siBns of i<Fact craters are often <asLed over ti<e. NeverthelessC so<e terrestrial craters are P;ite o>vio;s C s;ch as the (arrinBer CraterC
sho=n in fiB. %C located near Winslo= AriAona. *he crater is 1%00 < =ide and 1+0 < deeF. It =as created aFFroKi<atel@ 50C000 @ears aBo >@ a nicLel-iron N!' onl@ a>o;t 50 < in siAe =hose i<Fact enerB@ =as >et=een %0 and 40 /tC devastatinB an area =ith a radi;s of 10 to %4 L< and creatinB h;rricane-force =inds o;t to a radi;s of 40 L< . % :FerhaFs %0 <eters in siAeJ eKFloded over the *;nB;sLa river in Si>eriaC raininB destr;ction over a %000 sP;are Lilo<eter area 4 :a>o;t the siAe of WashinBtonC DCJ.

N!' i<Fact events ranBe in conseP;ence fro< local devastation to eKtinction-level events . In 1-0, a relativel@ s<all N!' AFFroKi<atel@ $5 <illion @ears aBo a relativel@ larBe N!'C a>o;t 10 L< in siAeC sla<<ed =ith terri>le destr;ctive force into the #;catan Fenins;la and is >elieved to have ca;sed the eKtinction of <ore than +0X of the sFecies livinB at the ti<eC incl;dinB the dinosa;rs .5 /ore recentl@C in 'cto>er of %00, =e =ere a>le to ?;st >arel@ Fredict the collision =ith !arth of a ver@ s<all N!' na<ed %00, *C3 a <ere siK ho;rs >efore it entered o;r at<osFhere and disinteBrated at hiBh altit;de over S;dan. *he asteroid disinteBrated rather than striLinB the Bro;nd >eca;se it =as onl@ a>o;t 5 <eters in siAe. PerhaFs the <ost ;niP;e asFect of these nat;ral disasters is that for the first ti<e in Lno=n histor@ h;<anit@ <a@ have the technoloB@ to anticiFate and Frevent the< >@ discoverinB and deflectinB inco<inB N!'s >efore the@ collide =ith !arth. o=everC to date no N!' deflection s@ste<s have >een >;ilt or tested and no aBenc@ has >een Biven the resFonsi>ilit@ of defendinB !arth fro< haAardo;s N!'s.
$

Asteroids Aff 18/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!H"#"!$%
!ASA is not ca6ab4e of 2eeting the congressiona4 2andate to track ?0= of 6otentia44: haAardo0s !"+s b: 2020 !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 200? :Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC National
"esearch Co;ncilC Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBies7 Interi< "eFortC *he National Acade<ies PressC httF7&&===.naF.ed;&oFen>ooL.FhFGrecordHidI1%+3,UFaBeI1J ConBress directed NASA to asL the National "esearch Co;ncil to revie= NASA8s near-!arth o>?ect FroBra<s. *his interi< reFort addresses so <e of the iss;es associated =ith the s;rve@ and detection of N!'s. o=everC the co<<ittee contin;es its infor<ation collection and deli>erations and =ill address a >roader ranBe of iss;es in its final reFortC d;e for deliver@ at the end of %00-. D;rinB its st;d@ so farC the co<<ittee has deter<ined that the iss;es of s;rve@ and detection and characteriAation% and <itiBation are closel@ linLed and sho;ld >e addressed as a =hole. 5or eKa<FleC N!'s detected >@ Bro;nd->ased telescoFes can >e >etter tracLed >@ the Areci>o '>servator@ =hen =ithin its ranBe. *h;s this o>servator@ Fla@s a Le@ role in deter<ininB Fh@sical characteristics of N!'sC i<Fortant in deter<ininB ho= to <itiBate the effects of N!'s on !arth. In Fart >eca;se of this interrelationshiFC and >eca;se the interi< reFort does not address <itiBation iss;esC the co<<ittee has deferred FroFosinB an oFti<;< aFFroach to the s;rve@ and detection Fro>le< ;ntil its final reFort. *he

final reFort =ill contain findinBs and reco<<endations for s;rve@ and detectionC characteriAationC and <itiBation of near-!arth o>?ects >ased on an inteBrated assess<ent of the Fro>le<. *his interi< reFort contains five findinBs7 5indinB7 ConBress has <andated that NASA discover -0 Fercent of all near-!arth o>?ects 140 <eters in dia<eter or Breater >@ %0%0. *he ad<inistration has not reP;ested and ConBress has not aFFroFriated ne= f;nds to <eet this o>?ective. 'nl@ li<ited facilities are c;rrentl@ involved in this s;rve@&discover@ effortC f;nded >@ NASA8s eKistinB >;dBet. 5indinB7 *he c;rrent near-!arth o>?ect s;rve@s cannot <eet the Boals of the %005 NASA A;thoriAation Act directinB NASA to discover -0 Fercent of all near-!arth o>?ects 140 <eters in dia<eter or Breater >@ %0%0. Detection efforts are inco264eterecent disco5er: of h0ge asteroids 6ro5es thereDs sti44 a threat !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 2010 :N"C Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB
Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and

ConBress has esta>lished for NASA t=o <andates addressinB near-!arth o>?ect :N!'J detection. *he first <andateC no= Lno=n as the SFaceB;ard S;rve@C directed the aBenc@ to detect -0 Fercent of near-!arth o>?ects 1 Lilo<eter in dia<eter or Breater >@
%00,. (@ %00-C the aBenc@ =as close to <eetinB that Boal. Altho;Bh the esti<ate of this FoF;lation is contin;all@ revisedC as astrono<ers Bather additional data a>o;t all N!'s :and asteroids and co<ets in BeneralJC these revisions are eKFected to re<ain. *he

aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

%00- discover@ of asteroid %00- C,%C a %- to 3Lilo<eter-dia<eter N!' in a retroBrade :D>acL=ardsEJ or>itC isC ho=everC a re<inder that so<e N!'s 1 Lilo<eter or Breater in dia<eter re<ain ;ndetected. !ASA does not ha5e the f0nding or necessar: hard8are to 2eet the 2020 date& !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 200? :Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC National
"esearch Co;ncilC Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and recordHidI1%+3,UFaBeI1J aAard /itiBation StrateBies7 Interi< "eFortC *he National Acade<ies PressC httF7&&===.naF.ed;&oFen>ooL.FhFG

Altho;Bh ConBress <andated as a Boal the discover@ of -0 Fercent of all N!'s 140 <eters in dia<eter or Breater >@ %0%0C and NASA has st;died Fossi>le <ethods for acco<FlishinB this BoalC neither the ad<inistration nor ConBress has so;Bht to Frovide the f;ndinB reP;ired to achieve this Boal. Several Fossi>le sol;tions co;ld >e F;rs;ed to discover s;ch N!'s and <eet the BoalC >;t all reP;ire the raFid constr;ction of ne= hard=are and facilities s;ch as Bro;nd and&or sFace->ased telescoFes. Pri<aril@ >eca;se none of the< has >een eKFlicitl@ f;nded since the Boal =as esta>lished in %005C there is less ti<e availa>le to <eet the %0%0 dateC and it is conseP;entl@ <ore diffic;lt to <eet this Boal. 5indinB7 ConBress has <andated that NASA discover -0 Fercent of all near-!arth o>?ects 140 <eters in dia<eter or Breater >@ %0%0. *he ad<inistration has not reP;ested and ConBress has not aFFroFriated ne= f;nds to <eet this o>?ective. 'nl@ li<ited facilities are c;rrentl@ involved in this s;rve@&discover@ effortC f;nded >@ NASA8s eKistinB >;dBet.

Asteroids Aff 1?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!H"#"!$%
"5en if stat0s 10o tracking goa4s 8ere 2et the: arenDt s0fficient !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 2010 - Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and
aAard /itiBation StrateBies SFace St;dies (oard :D S;rve@ and Detection of Near-!arth '>?ects E FB. 30C Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical SciencesC httF7&&===.naF.ed;&oFen>ooL.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%UFaBeI30J

*h;sC assessinB the co<Fleteness of the N!' s;rve@s is s;>?ect to ;ncertainties7 So<e Bro;Fs of N!'s are Fartic;larl@ diffic;lt to detect . Asteroids and co<ets are contin;all@ lost fro< the N!' FoF;lation >eca;se the@ i<Fact the S;n or a FlanetC or >eca;se the@ are e?ected fro< the solar s@ste<. So<e asteroids have collisions that chanBe their siAes or or>its. Ne= o>?ects are introd;ced into the N!' FoF;lation fro< <ore distant reservoirs over h;ndreds of tho;sands to <illions of @ears. *he ;ndiscovered N!'s co;ld incl;de larBe o>?ects liLe %00- C,% as =ell as o>?ects that =ill >e discovered onl@ <onths or less >efore !arth i<Fact :Di<<inent i<FactorsEJ. enceC even tho;Bh ,5 Fercent of N!'s larBer than 1 Lilo<eter in dia<eter <iBht alread@ have >een discoveredC and event;all@ <ore than -0 Fercent of N!'s larBer than 140 <eters in dia<eter =ill >e discoveredC N!' s;rve@s sho;ld nevertheless contin;eC beca0se ob3ects not :et disco5ered 6ose a statistica4 risk/ H02anit: 20st be constant4: 5igi4ant& 5indinB7 DesFite FroBress to=ard or co<Fletion of an@ s;rve@ of near-!arth o>?ectsC it is i<Fossi>le to identif@ all of these o>?ects >eca;se o>?ects8 or>its can chanBeC for eKa<Fle d;e to collisions. "eco<<endation7 +nce a near."arth ob3ect s0r5e: has reached its 2andated goa4@ the search for !"+s sho04d not sto6& SearchinB sho;ld contin;e to identif@ as <an@ of the re<aininB o>?ects and o>?ects ne=l@ in?ected into the N!' FoF;lation as Fossi>leC esFeciall@ i<<inent i<Factors .

$0rrent $ongressiona4 goa4s 8i44 not be 2et for asteroid detection S$ "!$" FA # 2010 :1&%%C /icelle 0esslerC 4SA *oda@ Social /edia !ditorC DNASA =ill <iss ConBressional deadline for asteroid tracLinBEC
httF7&&content.;satoda@.co<&co<<;nities&sciencefair&Fost&%010&01&$%000,%$3&1J&&D*

NASA =onQt <eet ConBressional orders to tracL <ost cit@-s<ashinB-siAed asteroids in !arthQs neiBh>orhood >@ %0%0C an eKFert Fanel concl;ded 5rida@C >eca;se the Bovern<ent didnQt Frovide the <one@ to detect s;ch Near-!arth '>?ects. In the National "esearch Co;ncil "eFortC RDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesRC the Fanel finds the %005 order to find -0X of !arth-threateninB asteroids 4$0 feet or larBer infeasi>leC R>eca;se for the Fast 5 @ears the ad<inistration reP;ested no f;ndsC and the ConBress aFFroFriated noneC for this F;rFose.R If ConBress
=ants the s;rve@ co<Fleted >@ %0%%C NASA sho;ld la;nch t=in sFace Fro>es to the or>it of 2en;s to looL >acL at !arth neiBh>orhoodC the st;d@ finds. *he cheaFer oFtion =o;ld f;nd telescoFes and co<Flete the -0X Boal aro;nd %030. "iBht no=C the federal Bovern<ent sFends a>o;t S4 <illion a @ear to detect asteroids.

/ore research sho;ld >e done on asteroidsC the reFort arB;esC Fartic;larl@ since so<e recent st;dies s;BBest i<Facts fro< o>?ects as s<all as 100 feet =ide =o;ld =iFe o;t a cit@-siAed area. RSo<e>od@ needs to decide =ho is in charB eCR sa@s astrono<er /ichael AQ earn of the 4niversit@ of /ar@land in ColleBe ParLC =ho led the reFort FanelQs co<<ittee on divertinB asteroids. R No <ethod for divertinB asteroids has >een eKFeri<entall@ de<onstratedCR he sa@s. 'Ftions incl;de a RBravit@ tractorR or>itinB slo=-<ovinB o>?ects and t;BBinB the< off co;rse =ith tidal t;BsC a RLineticR i<Fact of a heav@ sFacecraft into an asteroidC or a n;clear eKFlosionC Ronl@ for the reall@ >iB and reall@ late discoveries CR AQ earn sa@s. International accords for handlinB an inco<inB asteroid donQt eKist eitherC he notes. R If @o; tr@ and divert an asteroid and <issC @o; <iBht end ;F landinB it on so<eone elseCR he sa@s. R*he larBer P;estion is =hether the re<aininB haAard fro< i<Facts is =orth a Qcrash FroBra<Q to shorten that ti<eC
=hich i<Flies sFace <issions costinB h;ndreds of <illionsC t@Ficall@CR sa@s asteroid eKFert Alan arris of the SFace Science Instit;te in )a CanadaC Calif. R5irstC and <ost si<Fl@C <@ ans=er is noC itQs not =orth itC solel@ for i<Fact risL red;ction.R 1ettinB a sFace <ission aFFroved >@ ConBress =o;ld liLel@ taLe ;ntil a>o;t %030C he s;BBestsC <aLinB it Fointless to arB;e for one.R o=ever contin;inB the eKistinB s;rve@s in concert =ith other astrono<ical =orL see<s =orth=hileC arris sa@s C

Rin a senseC the asteroid s;rve@ is liLe a =hole-life ins;rance Folic@. !ven if @o; donQt find a Liller asteroid o;t thereC @o; reaF a tre<endo;s scientific re=ard at the end of the QFolic@ FeriodQ.R RIt doesnQt s;rFrise <e that =e canQt @et address these P;estions -- there is @et to >e a ConBressionall@ directed research dollar to=ard the asteroid haAard. !ver@thinB to date has >een on a shoe strinBC FiBB@->acLed on other FroBra<sCR sa@s astrono<er "ichard (inAel of the /assach;setts Instit;te of *echnoloB@.

*he N"C reFort endorses contin;inB =orL at facilities s;ch as the 1C000-foot-=ide Areci>o radar astrono<@ facilit@ in P;erto "icoC =hich is threatened =ith clos;re. o=everC AQ earn notes the asteroid detection and characteriAation =orL at Areci>o canQt >e co<Fleted on the f;nds devoted to s;ch =orLC and relies on other astrono<ical research coverinB so<e of the costs of the <a<<oth facilit@. RIf other research sh;ts do=n at Areci>oC the :asteroid detectionJ share Boes ;F s;>stantiall@CR he sa@s.

Asteroids Aff 20/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!H"#"!$%SMA(( !"+s
$0rrent techno4og: isnDt ab4e to effecti5e4: res6ond to an asteroid E#AD("% et a4 2010 :)os Ala<os "esearch )a>orator@C DChallenBes of DeflectinB an Asteroid or Co<et N;cle;s =ith a N;clear (;rstEC
httF7&&===.astrosocioloB@.orB&)i>rar@&PD5&SP!SI5%010H(radle@-etalHDeflectinBAsteroids.FdfJ&&D*

Altho;Bh =e have co<e a lonB =a@s since the *;nB;sLa event of T;ne 30C 1-0,C there is still <;ch =e do not Lno=. !ven =hen finishedC Flanned s;rve@s =ill still not >e co<Flete for o>?ects s<aller than 140 <eters. S;ch an asteroid or co<et n;cle;s =o;ld >e larBe eno;Bh to =iFe o;t an area fro< Ne= #orL Cit@ to WashinBtonC D.C. '>?ects s<aller than a>o;t 140 <eters =ill >e diffic;lt to detect =ith <;ch advance =arninB si<Fl@ >eca;se the@ are eKtre<el@ faint eKceFt =hen the@ are close to !arth . Altho;Bh =e sent Fro>es to several asteroids and co<etsC =e onl@ have detailed infor<ation for a fe=. We also do not have detailed Lno=ledBe of the internal str;ct;re of asteroidsC esFeciall@ ones of order 10 to 1000 <eters in dia<eter. An asteroid8s resFonse to an i<F;lsive enerB@ >;rst --- =hether it >e hiBh eKFlosivesC Linetic enerB@
i<FactorC or n;clear >;rst --- =ill >e sensitive to >oth the co<Fosition :iceC rocLC rocL&iceC or ironJ and str;ct;re :<onolithic FieceC fract;redC or r;>>le FileJ of the >od@.

While =e <a@ >e a>le to deter<ine at least the s;rface co<Fosition of a P ' in advanceC =e <a@ not >e a>le to deter<ine the internal str;ct;re in advance. An@ <itiBation strateB@ <;st acco;nt for this ;ncertaint@.

Asteroids Aff 21/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!H"#"!$%!"W *"("S$+9"S B"%

!e8 te4esco6es are ke:e5en c0rrent gro0nd.based s:ste2s arenDt eno0gh !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 10 W "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and
aAard /itiBation StrateBiesand SFace St;dies (oard Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical Sciences :DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesEC httF7&&site.e>rar@.co<.FroK@.li>.;<ich.ed;&li>&;<ich&docDetail.actionGdocIDI1040510%J&&D*

*he F;rs;it of N!'s as s<all as 140 <eters in dia<eter reP;ires that <ore advanced telescoFe s@ste<s >e constr;cted and ;sed to detect these o>?ects. "eP;ired- for Bro;nd->ased telescoFes for eKa<FleC are larBerdia<eter telescoFe <irrors to increase liBht-BatherinB Fo=er in order to o>serve s<aller :therefore fainter at a Biven locationJ o>?ects7 i<aBinB instr;<ents =ith larBer fields of vie= on the sL@ in order to <aKi<iAe sL@ coveraBe for the s;rve@s7 <ore advanced o>servinB strateBies for oFti<iAinB N!' detection in the areas of the sL@ that are searchedM faster oFeratinB detectorsM and larBe data-storaBe caFa>ilities . (eca;se of the rate of <otion of asteroids across the sL@C eKFos;res are li<ited to a>o;t 30 seconds. A telescoFe needs to >e a>le to Bather s;fficient liBht fro< di< o>?ects in that short ti<e in order to achieve the Boal.a s<aller telescoFe ;sinB lonBer eKFos;res to reach that <aBnit;de =ill not s;ffice. /;ltiFle s<aller telescoFes i<aBinB the sa<e field to <aLe ;F the *he ne= s@ste<s descri>ed >elo= are eKa<Fles of ones that co;ld contri>;te siBnificantl@ to the detection of N!'s that co;ld i<Fact !arth in the f;t;re. S;ch s@ste<s th;s co;ld s;FFort efforts reP;ired to <eet the <andated Boal.

aFert;re =ill =orLC >;t s<aller telescoFes i<aBinB fields nonsi<;ltaneo;sl@ =ill not. *here are costC sched;leC and technical Ferfor<ance risLs involved =ith the constr;ction of an@ larBe-dia<eter <irror or larBe detectorC altho;Bh the risL for s;ch Bro;nd->ased telescoFes is less than that for sFace->ased telescoFes.

***(A#)" AS*"#+ D AD,A!*A)"

Asteroids Aff 22/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

# SB H )H
Man: recent threats 6ro5e thereDs a high 6robabi4it: of asteroid i26act !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

Several recent events and ne= anal@ses have hiBhliBhted the i<Fact threat to !arth 7 1. As Co<et Shoe<aLer-)ev@
- ca<e close to T;Fiter in 1--%C tidal forces ca;sed it to seFarate into <an@ s<aller fraB<ents that then <a@ have reBro;Fed >@ <eans of self-Bravit@ into at least %1 distinct Fieces :e.B.C AsFha;B and (enAC 1--4J. *hese Fieces i<Facted *he res;ltant scars in T;Fiter8s at<osFhere co;ld >e readil@ seen thro;Bh !arth>ased telescoFes for several <onths. In

T;Fiter in T;l@ 1--4C creatinB a seP;ence of visi>le i<Facts into the Baseo;s Tovian at<osFhere. T;l@ %00-C a second o>?ectC tho;Bh <;ch s<aller than Shoe<aLer-)ev@ -C i<Facted T;FiterC also ca;sinB a visi>le darL scar in the Tovian at<osFhere. S;ch clear evidence of <a?or collisions in the conte<Forar@ solar s@ste< does raise concern a>o;t the risL to h;<anit@ . %. In Dece<>er %004C astrono<ers deter<ined that there =as a non-neBliBi>le Fro>a>ilit@ that near-!arth asteroid AFoFhis :see ChaFter 4 for <ore detailsJ =o;ld striLe !arth in %0%-. As AFoFhis is an al<ost 300-<eterdia<eter o>?ectC a collision an@=here on !arth =o;ld have serio;s reBional
conseP;ences and Fossi>l@ Frod;ce transient Blo>al cli<ate effects. S;>seP;ent o>servations of AFoFhis r;led o;t an i<Fact in %0%- and also deter<ined that it is P;ite ;nliLel@ that this o>?ect co;ld striLe d;rinB its neKt close aFFroach to !arth in %03$. o=everC there

liLel@ re<ain <an@ AFoFhis-siAed N!'s that have @et to >e detected. *he threat fro< AFoFhis =as discovered onl@ in %004C raisinB concerns a>o;t =hether the threat of s;ch an o>?ect co;ld >e <itiBated sho;ld a collision =ith !arth >e deter<ined to have a hiBh Fro>a>ilit@ of occ;rrence in the relativel@ near f;t;re. 3. In T;ne 1-0,C a Fo=erf;l eKFlosion >le= do=n trees over an area sFanninB at least %C000 sP;are Lilo<eters of forest near the PodLa<enna@a *;nB;sLa "iver in Central Si>eria. As no
crater associated =ith this eKFlosion =as locatedC scientists initiall@ arB;ed aBainst an asteroid or co<et oriBin. e.B.C Ch@>aC 1--3M (oslo;Bh and Cra=fordC 1--+C %00,J have indicated that <odest-siAed

o>?ects :the *;nB;sLa o>?ect <a@ have >een onl@ 30 to 50 <eters in dia<eterJ <ovinB at hiBh s;Fersonic sFeeds thro;Bh the at<osFhere can disinteBrate sFontaneo;sl@C creatinB an air>;rst that ca;ses s;>stantial da<aBe =itho;t craterinB. S;ch air>;rsts are Fotentiall@ <ore destr;ctive than are Bro;nd i<Facts of si<ilar-siAe o>?ects. 4. A ston@ <eteorite 1 to % <eters in dia<eter travelinB at hiBh s;Fersonic sFeeds created an i<Fact crater in Per; in SeFte<>er %00+. AccordinB to c;rrent <odels =ith standard ass;<FtionsC s;ch a s<all o>?ect sho;ld not have i<Facted the s;rface at s;ch a hiBh velocit@. *his case de<onstrates that sFecific instances can var@ =idel@ fro< the nor< and is a re<inder that s<all N!'s can also >e danBero;s. 5. 'n 'cto>er $C %00,C asteroid %00, *C3 =as o>served >@ the Catalina SL@ S;rve@ :see ChaFter 3J on a collision co;rse =ith !arth. Altho;Bh the o>?ect =as dee<ed too s<all to Fose <;ch of a threatC the SFaceB;ard S;rve@ and the /inor Planet Center :see
ChaFter 3J acted raFidl@ to coordinate an o>servation ca<FaiBn over the follo=inB 1- ho;rsC =ith >oth Frofessionals and a<ate;rs to o>serve the o>?ect and deter<ine its tra?ector@. *he %- to 5-<eter-dia<eter o>?ect entered the at<osFhere on 'cto>er +C %00,C and the conseP;ent fire>all =as o>served over northern S;dan :5iB;re %.%J :TennisLens et al.C %00-J. S;>seP;ent Bro;nd searches in the N;>ian Desert in S;dan located 3.- LiloBra<s :in %,0 fraB<entsJ of <aterial fro< the <eteorite.

o=everC s;>seP;ent anal@sis and <ore recent <odelinB :seeC

*hese recent eventsC as =ell as the c;rrent ;nderstandinB of i<Fact Frocesses and the FoF;lation of s<all >odies across the solar s@ste< >;t esFeciall@ in the near-!arth environ<entC raise siBnificant concerns a>o;t the c;rrent state of Lno=ledBe of Fotentiall@ haAardo;s o>?ects and the a>ilit@ to resFond to the threats that the@ <iBht Fose to h;<anit@. WeDre 6assing thro0gh a cos2ic c:c4e 8ith ten ti2es the risk of asteroid i26act DA (% )A(AG% 2.11.2010 :DA Deadl@ 'r>itGE httF7&&===.dail@BalaK@.co<&<@H=e>loB&%010&0%&a-deadl@-or>it-the-solar-s@ste<s-?o;rne@-thro;Bhthe-<ilL@-=a@.ht<lJ

Is there a Benocidal co;ntdo=n >;ilt into the <otion of o;r solar s@ste<G "ecent =orL at Cardiff 4niversit@ s;BBests that o;r s@ste<Qs or>it thro;Bh the /ilL@ Wa@ enco;nters reB;lar sFeed>;<Fs - and >@ RsFeed>;<FsR =e <ean RFotentiall@ eKtinctionca;sinB asteroidsR. Professor Willia< NaFier and Dr TanaLi WicLra<asinBhe have co<Fleted co<F;ter si<;lations of the <otion of the S;n in o;r o;ter sFiral-ar< location in the /ilL@ Wa@ :i<aBe left of sFiral ar<sJ. *hese <odels reveal a reB;lar oscillation thro;Bh the central Balactic Flane C =here the s;rro;ndinB d;st clo;ds are the densest. *he solar s@ste< is a non-trivial o>?ectC so its Bravitational effects set off a far-reachinB Flanetoid-Fin>all <achine =hich often ends =ith co<ets h;rled into the intr;dinB s@ste< . *he s;n is a>o;t %$C000 liBht@ears fro< the center of the /ilL@ Wa@ 1alaK@C =hich is a>o;t ,0C000 to 1%0C000 liBht-@ears across :and less than +C000 liBht-@ears thicLJ. We are located on on one of its sFiral ar<sC o;t to=ards the edBe. It taLes the s;n -and o;r solar s@ste<- ro;Bhl@ %00-%50 <illion @ears to or>it once aro;nd the /ilL@ Wa@. In this or>itC =e are travelinB at a velocit@ of a>o;t 155 <iles&sec :%50 L<&secJ. /an@

of the ricocheted rocLs collide =ith Flanets on their =a@ thro;Bh o;r s@ste<C incl;dinB !arth. I<Fact craters recorded =orld=ide sho= correlations =ith the Y3+ <illion @ear-c@cle of these ?o;rne@s thro;Bh the Balactic Flane - incl;dinB the vast i<Fact craters tho;Bht to have F;t an end to the dinosa;rs t=o c@cles aBo. Al<ost eKactl@ t=o c@cles aBoC in fact. *he fiB;res sho= that =eQre ver@ close to another danBer AoneC =hen the odds of asteroid i<Fact on !arth Bo ;F >@ a factor of ten . *en ti<es a tin@ chance <iBht not see< liLe <;chC >;t =hen R"isL of !KtinctionR is on the ta>le that sinBle order of <aBnit;de can looL <;ch <ore i<FosinB . WorseC (r;ce
Willis =ill onl@ >e availa>le to save ;s for another fift@ @ears at <ost. (;t @o; have to re<e<>er that ten ti<es a ver@ s<all n;<>er is still a ver@ s<all n;<>er - and !arth has >een str;cL >@ tho;sands of asteroids =itho;t an@ eKcitinB eKtinction events. A rocL doesnQt ?;st have to hit ;sC it has to >e larBe eno;Bh to s;rvive the tr;l@ fearso<e forces that ca;se <ost to >;rn ;F on re-entr@.

Asteroids Aff 2-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

# SB H )H
9robabi4it: of a co44ision is high e5en in the short ter2 A2es #esearch $enter 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he center is

involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J *he latest

N!' close aFFroaches are t@Fical of the t=o doAen s;ch enco;nters Lno=n to have occ;rred in the %0th Cent;r@. *hese are onl@ a s<all fraction of the act;al n;<>er that have occ;rredM <ost have Bone co<Fletel@ ;ndetected. S;ch aFFroaches are co<<onFlace in o;r Fart of the solar s@ste<. *he late Flanetar@ BeoloBist !;Bene Shoe<aLer F;t it s;ccinctl@7 "arth e7ists in an asteroid s8ar2& We Lno= that since 1-3+C at least %% asteroids have aFFroached !arth <ore closel@ than did %001 #(5C =hich <issed >@ ?;st t=ice the distance to the /oon. 5ive of those o>?ects =ere larBer than 100 @ards in dia<ete r. AccordinB to NASAC there <a@ >e as <an@ as 100C000 N!'s =ith dia<eters of 100 @ards or larBer. 'f those asteroids larBer than 150 @ards in dia<eterC a>o;t %50 are toda@ esti<ated to >e Fotentiall@ haAardo;s . *he 4nited States has ver@ li<ited caFa>ilit@ to detect these s<aller N!'sC =hich can nevertheless inflict s;>stantial da<aBe ;Fon striLinB !arth. *here is a significant 6robabi4it: H20=I of s0ch an ob3ect co44iding 8ith the "arth d0ring the ne7t cent0r:& Altho;Bh the ann;al Fro>a>ilit@ of a larBe N!' i<Fact on !arth is relativel@ s<allC the res;lts of s;ch a collision =o;ld >e catastroFhic. *he Fh@sics of !arthQs s;rface and at<osFhere i<Fose nat;ral ;FFer li<its on the destr;ctive caFacit@ of nat;ral disastersC s;ch as earthP;aLesC landslidesC and stor<s. (@ contrastC the enerB@ released >@ an N!' i<Fact is li<ited onl@ >@ the o>?ectQs <ass and velocit@. 1iven o;r ;nderstandinB of the devastatinB conseP;ences to o;r Flanet and its FeoFle fro< s;ch an eventC :as =ell as the s<aller-scale >;t still-da<aBinB effects fro< s<aller N!' i<FactsJC o;r nation sho;ld act co<Frehensivel@ and aBBressivel@ to address this threat. A<erica Qs efforts to FredictC and then to avoid or <itiBate s;ch a threatC sho;ld >e at least co<<ens;rate =ith o;r national efforts to deal =ith <ore fa<iliar terrestrial haAards. If s6ace research has ta0ght 0s an:thing@ it is the certaint: that an asteroid or co2et 8i44 hit "arth again. I<Facts are co<<on events in !arthQs histor@7 scientists have fo;nd <ore than 150 larBe i<Fact craters on o;r FlanetQs s;rface. Were it not for !arthQs oceans and BeoloBical forces s;ch as erosion and Flate tectonicsC the Flanet Qs i<Fact scars =o;ld >e as Flain as those visi>le on the /oon.

Asteroids Aff 24/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

S*# B" !", *AE("

Asteroid strike is ine5itab4e. its 30st a 10estion of 8hether or not 8e are 6re6ared $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es .C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* We live in a cos<ic shootinB Baller@. So<e=here o;t in the nether=orld of deeF sFaceC h;rlinB to=ard !arthC is a doo<sda@ rocL. *he P;estion no= is not ?;st detectinB itC >;t =hat can >e done to Fossi>l@ n;dBe it off co;rse >@ one <eans or another >efore it striLes the !arth and annihilates a larBe Fart.if not all.of h;<anit@. S;ch a doo<sda@ asteroid co;ld severel@ disr;Ft life on !arthC not onl@ for h;<anit@C >;t for the other sFecies of FlantsC fishC >irdsC and ani<als. Altho;Bh no astrono<er has @et located the Liller o>?ect :=hich =ill >e a <ile =ide or larBerJ headed for ;sC it is inevita>leC accordinB to <ost astrono<ersC that one =ill event;all@ aFFear. )arBe !arthcrossinB asteroids sla< into o;r ho<e Flanet ever@ 300C000 to a <illion @earsC =hich <eans that there is aFFroKi<atel@ one chance in $C000 to %0C000 of a catacl@s<ic i<Fact d;rinB the neKt half cent;r@ . In other =ords the !arth has a <;ch >etter chance of >einB str;cL >@ a larBe asteroid than <ost of ;s have of =inninB >iB in the lotter@ :the chances in the latter case arc ;s;all@ one in <illionsJ. Dr. *o< 1ehrclsC a Frofessor of l;nar and Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAona =ho heads a tea< of astrono<ers that search the sL@ for s;ch Liller asteroidsC sa@s . R!vent;all@ it =ill hit and >e cata stroFhic. *he larBest near-!arth one =e Lno= of is 10 Lilo<eters in dia< eter :or a>o;t $.% <ilesJ =ide. If s;ch a thinB liLe that hitC the eKFlosion =o;ld >e a >illion ti<es >iBBer than iroshi<a. *hatQs a Q=hoFFerZQ R *his ne= field of research in the heavensC once FoohFoohed >@ its detractors as la;BhinBl@ FaranoidC has Bro=n in siAe and resFecta>ilit@ d;r inB the decade of the 1-,0s. In 1-,-C an asteroidC a <ere half-<ile =ideC crossed the !arthQs FathC co<inB =ithin an ;nco<forta>l@ close distance. R*he !arth had >een at that Foint :in sFaceJ onl@ siK ho;rs earlier CR a o;se Co<<ittee reFort noted. R ad it str;cL the !arth it =o;ld have ca;sed a disaster ;nFrecedented in h;<an histor@. *he enerB@ released =o;ld have >een eP;ivalent to <ore than 1C000 one-<eBaton >o<>s.R1
7

Asteroid strike is a statistica4 certaint: $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es
oriBin.

.C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* *he c;rrent B;r; of the asteroid-=atchinB field is Dr. !;Bene Shoe<aLerC a siKt@-fo;r-@ear-oldC retiredC BeoloBist-t;rned-astrono<er =ith die 4.S. 1eoloBical S;rve@ in 5laBstaffC AriAona. In the 1-50s he caref;ll@ st;died a three-P;arters-of-a-<ile crater in northern AriAona =hich <an@ BeoloBists had Frevio;sl@ >elieved =as volcanic in

Shoe<aLer Froved that the hole =as created >@ a 150-@ard-=idc asteroid that sla<<ed into the !arth 50C000 @ears aBo. *he follo=inB FhotoBraFh deFicts the i<<ensit@ of the craterC =hich is aFFroKi<atel@ one Lilo<eter across and over t=o h;ndred <eters deeF.

4sinB a telescoFe atoF /t. Palo<arC near PasadenaC CaliforniaC Shoe<aLer has headed three 4.S. tea<s =hich h;nt for !arth-crossinB asteroids. R*he@Qre little thinBs and ver@ diffic;lt to sFotCR he said. R#o; donQt see the< ;nless @o; ;se a ver@ larBe telescoFeC or ;nless the@ co<e ver@ close to !arth. *he@Qre sort of at the threshold of detection.RR

ConBress ordered these NASA st;dies >eca;se the Rcollection of a lenBtheninB list of !arth-crossinB asteroids in recent @ears... has res;lted in the acc;<;lation of hard dataCR accordinB to Dr. ClarL ChaF<anC an astrono<er at the Planetar@ Science Instit;te in *;csonC AriAonaC Frivate nonFrofit Bro;F. R*he !arth is >o;nd to >e hit. Statisticall@C itQs certain . ItQs ;nliLel@ that a reall@ larBe
a

asteroid =ill hit in o;r lifeti<eC >;t itQs not >e@ond the Fale.R 10

Asteroids Aff 2;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

AS*"#+ D M9A$*
Asteroid i26act 8o04d ca0se h02an e7tinction 9>#)A, " 1??4 :Der<otC /ail on S;nda@C T;ne 1%J ItQs o;t there so<e=here. A >iB Balactic >o;lder =ith >ad intentions. *he doo<sda@ rocL. *ravellinB at 54C000<FhC it is on a collision co;rse =ith the !arthC FacLed =ith 10C000 ti<es <ore enerB@ than all the =orldQs n;clear =eaFons . It co;ld hit =ith the Ferc;ssive force
of 100 <illion <eBatons of *N*C F;nchinB a crater %5 <iles deeF and 11% <iles =ideC creatinB a vast fire>all and a %0C000<Fh shocL=ave. 2aForised stone >;rns a hole thro;Bh the at<osFhereC the nitroBen and oK@Ben in the air co<>ine as nitric acid and the

entire Flanet is shro;ded in a clo;d of d;st and de>ris that >locLs o;t s;nliBht. In the cold and the darLC all Flants and ani<als FerishC <an >eco<es eKtinct C
fallinB. ItQs

civilisation ends. A Liller asteroidC liLe the one that did for the dinosa;rsC has no= done for ;s too. "elaK. Do not cancel @o;r holida@s. *he !arth-cr;shinBC life-P;enchinB asteroid Fro>a>l@ =onQt arrive this @earC FerhaFs not this decadeC <a@>e not in the neKt cent;r@. 'n the other handC =ho Lno=sG ItQs o;t there and itQs co<inB. *he sL@ reall@ is

?;st a <atter of =hen. In the Ferilo;s Ba<e of cos<ic Fin>allC there are FerhaFs 4C000 asteroids on an or>it that intersects =ith !arthQs that are >iB the chances of the =orld and one of the< arrivinB at the sa<e Flace at the sa<e aFocal@Ftic <o<ent have >eco<e relativel@ hiBh in celestial ter<s. Distilled to the co<Frehensi>le - )ad>roLeQs ter<s - it is not esFeciall@ co<fortinB. *he end <a@ >e niBher than =e tho;Bht. 'n the indeK of dis<al eKFectationsC it no= see<s that it <a@ not >e n;clear =arC Blo>al =ar<inB or another ice aBe that finishes ;s offC >;t a sFace rocL that has stra@ed o;t of its lane >et=een T;Fiter and /ars. *he odds areC =ellC not astrono<ical. Scientists recLon that Qa >iB oneQ sla<s into the
eno;Bh - half a <ile in dia<eter and ;F - to sn;ff ;s o;t or at least >last ;s >acL to the Stone ABe. And the eKFerts sa@ that !arth ever@ 300C000 @earsC >;tC rather <ore co<FellinBl@C the@ calc;late that the chances of >einB >ar>ec;ed >@ an errant asteroid over the neKt 50 @ears are no= do=n to a>o;t one in 10C000. *o F;t this into >leaLC act;arial FersFectiveC serio;s sFace =atchers are sa@inB that =e and o;r children <iBht >e t=ice as liLel@ to end ;F dead at the =ronB end of an asteroid as =e are to >e Lilled in a Flane crash. QItQs ?;st a <atter of ti<eCQ sa@s !;Bene Shoe<aLerC the e<inent astrono<er =ho =as a=arded the National /edal of Science for his FioneerinB research on !arth-aFFroachinB asteroids and co<ets. Q*hereQs a hiBh Fotential for a catastroFhic disasterCQ sa@s 1reB CanavanC senior scientific adviser at )os Ala<os National )a>orator@ in Ne= /eKico. Q It

co;ld =iFe o;t ever@>od@.Q Q!vent;all@ it =ill hit and >e catastroFhicCQ sa@s Dr *o< 1ehrelsC Frofessor of l;nar and Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAona. Q*he larBest near-!arth

asteroid =e Lno= of is a>o;t siK <iles in dia<eter. If a thinB liLe that hitC the eKFlosion =o;ld >e a >illion ti<es >iBBer than iroshi<a.Q /enace fro< o;ter sFace has tended to >e dis<issed as an invention of i<aBinative novels and ( <ovies. In factC t=o-thirds of all the sFecies that ever s=a<C fle=C cra=led or =alLed on !arth =ere <ade eKtinct >@ violent intr;sions fro< sFaceC >;t <an is the first one a>le to anticiFate the threatC and the firstC FerhaFsC to do so<ethinB to Frevent it. *he danBer of cos<ic inco<inB first Bot a lot of FeoFleQs attention in 1-,- =hen a half-<ile-=ide asteroid <issed the !arth >@ onl@ +00C000 <ilesC an astral hairQs >readth. Worse for the Blo>al ne;rosesC no>od@ sa= it aFFroachinBC and if it had arrived ?;st siK ho;rs later there <iBht have >een a =orld-eKtinB;ishinB collision. Q!arth r;ns its co;rse aro;nd the s;n in a s=ar< of asteroidsCQ sa@s Donald #eo<ansC of NasaQs Tet ProF;lsion )a>orator@ in California. QSooner or later o;r Flanet =ill >e str;cL >@ one of the<.Q

*he i26act is e7tinction $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es .C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* !arth to co<e >acL and reBain its >ioloBical diversit@. (ioloBists fear that h;<anit@ <a@ no= >e FreciFitatinB a self-<ade eKtinction fro< within on a co<Fara>le scale. (;t it is fro< without that h;<anLind faces an ;ncertain f;t;reC when and =here a Biant co<et or an asteroid co<es crashinB do=n so<e=here on !arth. We Lno= a>o;t the recent eKtinctions of tho;sands of diverse sFecies of flora and fa;naC of fishC >irdsC and ani<alsC =ro;Bht >@ o;r tinLerinB =ith the >iosFhere. What =e donQt Lno= is the danBers fro< the cos<os :=hich is =hat this >ooL is all a>o;tJ. As h;<anLind starts to BraFFle =ith the conseP;ences of its o=n foll@ :=hich =as eKa<ined in deFth at the 4nited Nations-sFonsored conference in "io dc Taniero on the Blo>al environ<ent in T;ne 1--%JC it is also ti<e to eKa<ine the FrosFects of a stra@ asteroid Fl;nBinB into o;r Flanet in the near f;t;re. Where s;ch a hit =ill co<e and =henC =e do not Lno=. (;t =e do Lno= the Fotential eKists for s;ch a catacl@s<C =ro;Bht >@ an o;ter sFace->orne doo<sda@ rocL. =reaLinB the <eBaton Fo=er of h;ndreds of ->o<>s all BoinB off at once. S;ch a hit can >rinB ;s the deeF chill and darLness of a cos<ic n;clear =inter.and can =iFe o;t h;<anit@ as =e
Lno= it.

Asteroids Aff 2'/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

AS*"#+ D M9A$*
Asteroid i26act 8o04d ca0se h02an e7tinction8e 2assi5e4: 0nderesti2ate the risk re4ati5e to other threats $H $H (! SB% A!D " S"!E"#)"# 2010 :1raciela ChichilnisL@ and Peter !isen>erBerC Col;<>ia 4niversit@C DAsteroids7 AssessinB
CatastroFhic "isLsCE To;rnal of Pro>a>ilit@ and StatisticsC httF7&&===.hinda=i.co<&?o;rnals&?Fs&%010&-54+50&J

SiKt@ five <illion @ears aBoC an asteroid crashed into earth . 1lo>al =inds distri>;ted the d;st thro;Bho;t the at<osFhereC >locLinB s;nliBhtC and <an@ life for<s that relied on the s;n event;all@ Ferished. In a short Feriod of ti<e C eKFerts >elieveC the <iBht@ dinosa;rs that do<inated o;r Flanet =ent eKtinct. "ealisticall@ the sa<e fate a=aits ;s. 'ver --.--X of the sFecies that have ever eKisted are no= eKtinct 1C %. If o;r sFecies s;rvives lonB eno;BhC =e =ill >e eKFosed to an asteroid and co;ld s;ffer the sa<e fate as
the dinosa;rs. *he data s;BBests that asteroids of that cali>er =ill hit o;r Flanet on averaBe once ever@ 100 <illion @ears %. *he last one =as $5 <illion @ears aBo. 4nder c;rrent conditionsC =hen the neKt one hits the earthC h;<ans and <an@ other sFecies co;ld Bo eKtinct. What sho;ld =e do a>o;t this threat to o;r s;rvival and others liLe itG And if

the iss;e is serio;sC =h@ is this iss;e BettinB so little attention =hereas the less catastroFhic threat of Blo>al =ar<inB is in the ne=s al<ost dail@G *he F;rFose of this FaFer is to Frovide ans=ers to these P;estions. We eKa<ine s@ste<aticall@ ho= to deal
=ith catastroFhic risLs s;ch as asteroid i<FactsC =hich are s<all-Fro>a>ilit@ events =ith enor<o;s conseP;encesC events that co;ld threaten the s;rvival of o;r sFeciesC and co<Fare their treat<ent =ith risLs liLe Blo>al =ar<inB that are <ore i<<inent and fa<iliar >;t Fossi>l@ less catastroFhic. *he tasL is not eas@.

Classic tools for risL <anaBe<ent are notorio;sl@ Foor for <anaBinB catastroFhic risLs C :see Posner N%O and ChichilnisL@ N3C 4OJ. *here is an ;nderstanda>le tendenc@ to iBnore rare eventsC s;ch as an asteroid i<FactC =hich are ;nliLel@ to occ;r in o;r lifeti<es or those of o;r fa<ilies N%C 5O. #es this is a P;estiona>le instinct at this staBe of h;<an evol;tion =here o;r Lno=ledBe ena>les to identif@ s;ch risLs. Standard decision tools <aLe this tasL diffic;lt . We sho= ;sinB the eKistinB data that a <a?or dist;r>ance ca;sed >@
Blo>al =ar<inB of less than 1 X of 1DP over=hel<s in eKFected val;e the costs associated =ith an asteroid i<Fact that can Fla;si>l@ lead to the eKtinction of the h;<an sFecies. We sho= that the eKFected val;e of the loss ca;sed >@ an asteroid that leads to eKtinction.is >et=een S 5 0 0 <illion and S - % >illion. A loss of this <aBnit;de is s<aller than that of a fail;re of a sinBle ato<ic Flant.the ";ssians lost <ore than S 1 4 0 >illion =ith the accident at Cherno>@l.or =ith the Fotential risLs involved in Blo>al =ar<inB that is >et=een S , - 0 >illion and S - . + trillion N%O. 4sinB

eKFected val;es therefore =e are led to >elieve that FreventinB asteroid i<Facts sho;ld not ranL hiBh in o;r Folic@ Friorities. Co<<on sense re>els aBainst the co<F;tation =e ?;st Frovided. *he a>ilit@ to anticiFate and Flan for threats that have never >een eKFerienced >@ an@ c;rrent or Fast <e<>er of the sFecies and are ;nliLel@ to haFFen in o;r lifesFansC aFFears to >e ;niP;e to o;r sFecies. We need to ;se a risL <anaBe<ent aFFroach that ena>les ;s to deal <ore effectivel@ =ith s;ch threats N%O. *o overco<e

this Fro>le< this FaFer s;<<ariAes a ne= aKio<atic aFFroach to catastroFhic risLs that ;Fdates c;rrent <ethods develoFed initiall@ >@ Tohn 2on Ne;<annC see ChichilnisL@ N3C 4C $W-OC and offers Fractical fiB;res to eval;ate Fossi>le Folicies that =o;ld Frotect ;s fro< asteroid i<Facts. ';r concl;sion is that =e are ;nderinvestinB in FreventinB the risL of asteroid liLe threats. /;ch can and sho;ld >e done at a relativel@ s<all costM this FaFer s;BBests a <ethodoloB@ and a ranBe of dollar val;es that sho;ld >e sFent to Frotect aBainst s;ch risLs to helF Frevent the eKtinction of o;r sFecies.

Asteroids Aff 27/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

"G* !$* +! B"%

"7tinction risks o0t8eigh e5er:thing e4se regard4ess of 6robabi4it: MA*H"!% 2007 :TasonC DeFart<ent of ealth Polic@ and /anaBe<entC (loo<>erB School of P;>lic ealthC Tohns
;<an !KtinctionCE "isL Anal@sisC 2ol %+C No 5J oFLins 4niversit@C D"ed;cinB the "isL of

!ven if eKtinction events are i<Fro>a>leC the eKFected val;es of co;nter<eas;res co;ld >e larBeC as the@ incl;de the val;e of all f;t;re lives. *his introd;ces a discontin;it@ >et=een the C!A of eKtinction and noneKtinction risLs. !ven tho;Bh the risL to an@ eKistinB individ;al of d@inB in a car crash is <;ch Breater than the risL of d@inB in an asteroid i<FactC asteroids Fose a <;ch Breater risL to the eKistence of f;t;re Benerations :=e are not liLel@ to crash all o;r cars at onceJ :ChaF<anC %004J. *he Ddeath-tollE of an eKtinction-level asteroid i<Fact is the FoF;lation of !arthC Fl;s all the descendents of that FoF;lation =ho =o;ld other=ise have eKisted if not for the i<Fact. *here is th;s a discontin;it@ >et=een risLs that threaten --X of h;<anit@ and those that threaten 100X. !othing can o0t8eigh e7tinction e5en if the risk is 2inisc04e MA*H"!% 2007 :TasonC DeFart<ent of ealth Polic@ and /anaBe<entC (loo<>erB School of P;>lic
;<an !KtinctionCE "isL Anal@sisC 2ol %+C No 5J

ealthC Tohns

oFLins 4niversit@C D"ed;cinB the "isL of

We <a@ >e Foorl@ eP;iFFed to recoBniAe or Flan for eKtinction risLs :#;dLo=sL@C %00+J. We <a@ not >e Bood at BrasFinB the siBnificance of ver@ larBe n;<>ers :catastroFhic o;tco<esJ or ver@ s<all n;<>ers :Fro>a>ilitiesJ over larBe ti<efra<es. We str;BBle =ith esti<atinB the Fro>a>ilities of rare or ;nFrecedented events :0;nre;ther et al.C %001J. Polic@<aLers <a@ not Flan far >e@ond c;rrent Folitical ad<inistrations and rarel@ do risL assess<ents val;e the eKistence of f;t;re Benerations.1, We <a@ ;n?;stifia>l@ disco;nt the val;e of f;t;re lives. 5inall@C eKtinction risLs are <arLet fail;res =here an individ;al en?o@s no FerceFti>le >enefit fro< his or her invest<ent in risL red;ction. ;<an s;rvival <a@ th;s >e a Bood reP;irinB deli>erate Folicies to Frotect. It <iBht >e feared that consideration of eKtinction risLs =o;ld lead to a red;ctio ad a>s;rd;<7 =e o;Bht to invest all o;r reso;rces in asteroid defense or n;clear disar<a<entC instead of AIDSC Foll;tionC =orld h;nBerC or other Fro>le<s =e face toda@. 'n the contrar@C FroBra<s that create a health@ and content Blo>al FoF;lation are liLel@ to red;ce the Fro>a>ilit@ of Blo>al =ar or catastroFhic terroris<. *he@ sho;ld th;s >e seen as an essential Fart of a Fortfolio of risL-red;cinB Fro?ects . Disc;ssinB the risLs of Dn;clear =interCE Carl SaBan :1-,3J =rote7 So<e have arB;ed that the difference >et=een the deaths of several h;ndred <illion FeoFle in a n;clear =ar :as has >een tho;Bht ;ntil recentl@ to >e a reasona>le ;FFer li<itJ and the death of ever@ Ferson on !arth :as no= see<s Fossi>leJ is onl@ a <atter of one order of <aBnit;de. 5or <eC the difference is considera>l@ Breater. "estrictinB o;r attention onl@ to those =ho die as a conseP;ence of the =ar conceals its f;ll i<Fact. If =e are reP;ired to cali>rate eKtinction in n;<erical ter<sC I =o;ld >e s;re to incl;de the n;<>er of FeoFle in f;t;re Benerations =ho =o;ld not >e >orn. A n;clear =ar i<Ferils all of o;r descendantsC for as lonB as there =ill >e h;<ans . !ven if the FoF;lation re<ains staticC =ith an averaBe lifeti<e of the order of 100 @earsC over a t@Fical ti<e Feriod for the >ioloBical evol;tion of a s;ccessf;l sFecies :ro;Bhl@ ten <illion @earsJC =e are talLinB a>o;t so<e 500 trillion FeoFle @et to co<e. (@ this criterionC the staLes are one <illion ti<es Breater for eKtinction than for the <ore <odest n;clear =ars that Lill Donl@E h;ndreds of <illions of FeoFle. *here are <an@ other Fossi>le <eas;res of the Fotential loss.incl;dinB c;lt;re and scienceC the evol;tionar@ histor@ of the FlanetC and the siBnificance of the lives of all of o;r ancestors =ho contri>;ted to the f;t;re of their descendants. !Ktinction is the ;ndoinB of the h;<an enterFrise. In a si<ilar veinC the FhilosoFher DereL Parfit :1-,4J =rote7 I >elieve that if =e destro@ <anLindC as =e no= canC
this o;tco<e =ill >e <;ch =orse than <ost FeoFle thinL. Co<Fare three o;tco<es7 1. Peace %. A n;clear =ar that Lills --X of the =orld8s eKistinB FoF;lation 3. A n;clear =ar that Lills 100X % =o;ld >e =orse than 1C and 3 =o;ld >e =orse than %. Which is the Breater of these t=o differencesG /ost FeoFle >elieve that the Breater difference is >et=een 1 and %. I >elieve that the difference >et=een % and 3 is ver@ <;ch Breater . . . . *he

!arth =ill re<ain ha>ita>le for at least another >illion @ears. CiviliAation >eBan onl@ a fe= tho;sand @ears aBo. If=e do not destro@ <anLindC these tho;sand @ears <a@ >e onl@ a tin@ fraction of the =hole of civiliAed h;<an histor@ . *he difference >et=een % and 3 <a@ th;s >e the difference >et=een this tin@ fraction and all of the rest of this histor@. If =e co<Fare this Fossi>le histor@ to a da@C =hat has occ;rred so far is onl@ a fraction of a second. ;<an eKtinction in the neKt fe= cent;ries co;ld red;ce the n;<>er of f;t;re Benerations >@ tho;sands or <ore. We taLe eKtraordinar@ <eas;res to Frotect so<e endanBered sFecies fro< eKtinction. It <iBht >e reasona>le to taLe eKtraordinar@ <eas;res to Frotect h;<anit@ fro< the sa<e. 1- *o decide =hether this is so reP;ires <ore disc;ssion of the
<ethodoloBical Fro>le<s <entioned hereC as =ell as research on the eKtinction risLs =e face and the costs of <itiBatinB the<.%0

Asteroids Aff 28/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

WA# A!D D S"AS" M9A$*

Asteroid i26acts 8o04d ca0se 8ar@ fa2ine@ and disease !ationa4 #esearch $o0nci4 10 W "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and
aAard /itiBation StrateBiesand SFace St;dies (oard Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical Sciences :DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesEC httF7&&site.e>rar@.co<.FroK@.li>.;<ich.ed;&li>&;<ich&docDetail.actionG docIDI1040510%J&&D* 4nliLe <ost other Lno=n nat;ral haAards to h;<anit@C s;ch as earthP;aLesC volcanic er;FtionsC ts;na<isC h;rricanesC and tornadoes C N!' i<Facts

Fresent a ver@ larBe sFread of disaster scales ranBinB fro< s<all FroFert@ da<aBe to Blo>al eKtinction events. )arBer i<Facts <a@ res;lt in Blo>al cli<atic chanBes that can res;lt in fa<ine and diseaseC infrastr;ct;re fail;re andC Fotentiall@C societal >reaLdo=n. S<aller i<Facts co;ld >e <isinterFreted and there>@ co;ld conceiva>l@ even triBBer =ars. N;<ero;s s<all incidents Fresent little risL to FeoFle and FroFert@C >;t <a?or i<Fact events occ;r ver@ infreP;entl@. I<Facts reFresent the eKtre<e eKa<Fle of Rlo=-Fro>a>ilit@C hiBh-conseP;enceR events. Altho;Bh the Fro>a>ilit@ of s;ch a <a?or i<Fact =ithin the neKt cent;r@ <a@ >e s<allC a statistical risL of s;ch an i<Fact re<ains. (eca;se of the nat;re of the i<Fact threatC the eKFected fatalit@ rate fro< i<Facts is an Ract;arialR esti<ate >ased on calc;lations =ith atte<Fted conservative ass;<Ftions. All the other esti<ates in *a>le %.% are >ased on the attri>;tion of ca;ses
of act;al fatalities fro< onBoinB threats that <a@ chanBe in the f;t;re.

Asteroids Aff 2?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

"$+! M9A$*
Asteroid i26act t0rns econo2: (e8is 2k :Tohn S.C Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAona8s );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@C DCo<et and Asteroid I<Fact
!arthEC PrintJ&&D* aAards a PoF;lated

*he eKFected econo<ic losses fro< i<Fact events are disc;ssed >@ Canavan et al. :1--4J in the conteKt of a statisticall@ averaBed
i<Fact fl;K <odel. *heir differential loss c;rves for i<Facts consist of fo;r straiBht-line seB<ents on a loB :lossJ vs. loB :<assJ FlotC =ith a>r;Ft discontin;ities of a factor of %0-50 >et=een ad?acent seB<ents. An i<Fact <odel that taLes into acco;nt the f;ll statistical varia>ilit@ of initial or>ital Fara<etersC entr@ conditionsC i<Factor Fh@sical FroFertiesC and i<Fact siteC s;ch as the Fresent /onte Carlo <odelC does not eKhi>it s;ch discontin;o;s >ehavior. A

<ore direct =a@ to esti<ate losses is to realiAe that the BeoBraFhical distri>;tion of h;<ans and of h;<an assets are ver@ si<ilarM so <;ch so chat the ratio of fatalities to econo<ic loss is arB;a>l@ nearl@ a constant. ';r aFFroachC thereforeC is to ;se h;<an cas;alties as a FroK@ for econo<ic loss. Note that this aFFroach does not <ean assiBninB a cash val;e to h;<an lifeM ratherC it is an esti<ate of the
averaBe cash val;e of FroFert@ and Boods destro@ed Fer h;<an death. Conversion of i<Fact deaths to eKFected econo<ic loss can >e achieved to adeP;ate acc;rac@ >@ <;ltiFl@inB the n;<>er of deaths >@ a constant .

A co<Farison of CanavanQs cost anal@sis =ith the lethalit@Q Fredictions or. /or rison etaL :1--4J or =ith the Fresent =orL s;BBests a conversion factor of a>o;t S100C000 Fer Ferson. *his factor in t;rn s;BBests that a <id-% 'th-cent;r@ Blo>al FoF;lation of 5 3 10 - FeoFle =o;ld have a total FroFert@ val;e of S5 3 1014C =hichC at a Bross Blo>al Frod;ct level of a>o;t S%.5 3 10R Fer @earC reFresents a>o;t %0 @ears of Blo>al Frod;ct. *his see<s a reasona>le esti<ate. *herefore an anal@sis that s;BBests an eKFected ti<e-averaBed fatalit@ rate of 3000 FeoFle Fer @ear =o;ld liLe=ise s;BBest an eKFected <ean direct econo<ic :FroFert@J loss of a>o;t S300 <illion Fer @earC in accord =ith CanavanQs esti<ate. A Blo>al ins;rance Folic@ aBainst i<Facts =ith Fre<i;<s of S100 <illion a @ear =o;ld >e an eKcellent >arBain. 'ver the lonB ter<C an ins;rance co<Fan@ offerinB s;ch coveraBe =o;ld have to charBe Fre<i;<s of at least S400 <illion Fer @ear to re<ain in >;siness. *h;s an@ co<>ination of Frevention and re<ediation costs :discoverC tracLinBC characteriAationC
interceFtionC and diversionJ costinB S100 <illion =o;ld Fa@ >acL that invest<ent several ti<es over. We shall ret;rn to this iss;e in ChaFter ,. It sho;ld he a<Fl@ evidentC ho=everC that a tr;e Blo>al catastroFhe that Frevents aBric;lt;re for a @ear or other=ise destro@s the infrastr;ct;re of civiliAation :incl;dinB all ins;rance co<FaniesJ is not an acceFta>le o;tco<e no <atter ho= <;ch ins;rance =e <a@ earnQ.

"5en a s2a44 asteroid strike destro:s the econo2: A2es #esearch $enter 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he center is

involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

5or the first ti<e in h;<an histor@C =e have the Fotential to Frotect o;rselves fro< a catastroFhe of tr;l@ cos<ic FroFortions. All of ;s re<e<>er vividl@ the effect on o;r nation of terrorist striLes ;sinB s;>sonic aircraft t;rned into fl@inB >o<>s7 tho;sands of o;r citiAens deadC and o;r econo<@ >adl@ shaLen. Consider the ra<ifications of an i<Fact fro< a relativel@ s<all N!'7 <ore than a <illion ti<es <ore <assive than an aircraftC and travelinB at <ore than thirt@ ti<es the sFeed of so;nd. If s;ch an o>?ect =ere to striLe a cit@ liLe Ne= #orLC <illions =o;ld die. In addition to the staBBerinB loss of lifeC the effects on the national and Blo>al econo<@ =o;ld >e devastatinB. "ecover@ =o;ld taLe decades.

Asteroids Aff -0/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

+>*W" )HS "!, #+!M"!*

Asteroids o0t8eigh a44 other en5iron2ent i26acts S$HW" $BA#* et a4 2008 :";ssel ).C (achelor of Science in Aerona;tical !nBineerinBC /I* /aster of Science in Aerona;tics and

Astrona;ticsC /I*C Association of SFace !KFlorers International Panel on Asteroid *hreat /itiBationC DAsteroid *hreats7 A Call 5or 1lo>al "esFonseEC httF7&&===.sFaceeKFlorers.orB&A*AC1".FdfJ&&D*

!arthQs BeoloBical and >ioloBical histor@ is F;nct;ated >@ evidence of reFeated and devastatinB i<Facts fro< sFace. SiKt@-five <illion @ears aBoC an asteroid i<Fact ca;sed the eKtinction of the dinosa;rs alonB =ith so<e +0X of !arthQs livinB sFecies. A <ore t@Fical recent i<Fact =as the 1-0, *;nB;sLa !ventC a 3-5 <eBaton eKFlosion =hich destro@ed %C000 sP;are Lilo<eters of Si>erian forest. A f;t;re asteroid collision co;ld have disastro;s effects on o;r interconnected h;<an societ@. *he >lastC firesC and at<osFheric d;st Frod;ced co;ld ca;se the collaFse of reBional aBric;lt;reC leadinB to =idesFread fa<ine. 'cean i<Facts liLe the !ltanin event :%.5 <illion @ears aBoJ Frod;ce ts;na<is =hich devastate continental coastlines. Asteroid ---4% AFoFhisC =hich has a 1-in-45C000 chance of striLinB !arth in %03$C =o;ld Benerate a 500-<eBaton :/*J >last and inflict enor<o;s da<aBe. DevastatinB i<Facts are clearl@ infreP;ent events co<Fared to a h;<an lifeti<e7 *;nB;sLaC tho;Bht to >e ca;sed >@ the i<Fact of a 45-<eter-=ide asteroidC is an event that occ;rs on averaBe t=o or three ti<es ever@ tho;sand @ears. o=everC =hen Near !arth '>?ect :N!'J i<Facts occ;r the@ can ca;se terri>le destr;ctionC d=arfinB that ca;sed >@ <ore fa<iliar nat;ral disaster.

Asteroids Aff -1/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

D"(A% EAD
"ar4: 8arning is critica46o4ic:2akers 8i44 8ait too 4ong and def4ection 8i44 be e76ensi5e and ineffecti5e !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

';r a>ilit@ to Fro?ect a N!'8s or>it @ears into the f;t;re is acco<Fanied >@ considera>le ;ncertaint@. *he o>?ect8s or>ital Flane =ill Benerall@ >e Lno=n to Bood acc;rac@ C s;ch that the intersection of that Flane =ith the or>it of the !arth can >e Fredicted to =ithin a relativel@ fe= Lilo<eters. o=everC eKceFt in the case of a N!' o>served on its ter<inal i<Fact tra?ector@C a threateninB N!'8s eKact or>ital Feriod =ill Benerall@ not >e Lno=n acc;ratel@ eno;Bh to Fredict =hether an i<Fact <an@ @ears in the f;t;re =ill act;all@ occ;r. Decision-<aLers =ill th;s freP;entl@ face the P;estion of ho= to react to a N!' =ith a =orriso<e :>;t ;ncertainJ Fro>a>ilit@ of i<Fact. 5or eKa<FleC a Fartic;lar N!' <a@ have a % Fercent chance of i<FactinB !arth on a Fartic;lar da@ decades in the f;t;re. WaitinB ;ntil Bro;nd->ased o>servations i<Frove the i<Fact Frediction toC sa@C 50 Fercent confidence =ill <aLe an atte<Fted deflection far <ore costl@C if not Fh@sicall@ i<Fossi>le. !ven the Fro<Ft la;nch of a ro>otic transFonder <ission to i<Frove o;r Lno=ledBe of the N!'8s or>it =ill cost several h;ndred <illion dollars for each Fotential i<Fact threat. Decisions of this sort =ill >e ver@ ;nFleasant for Folic@-<aLers. *he *asL 5orce reco<<endations seeL to <ini<iAe these sit;ations thro;Bh develoF<ent and deFlo@<ent of search and tracLinB assets that red;ce the ;ncertaint@ in a N!'8s FositionC and th;s the ;ncertaint@ in its i<Fact Fro>a>ilit@. "ed;cinB the n;<>er of s;ch D=orriso<e Fro>a>ilit@ of i<FactE sit;ations via >etter N!' search and tracL technoloBies :Frod;cinB o>servations that 1% Frove the <ore liLel@ case that the asteroid =ill <iss !arthJ =ill >e far less eKFensive than la;nchinB transFonder <issions or an act;al deflection ca<FaiBn. Parallel efforts to de<onstrate cost-effective deflection technoloBies =o;ld helF deal =ith those fe= o>?ects =ith i<Fact Fro>a>ilities that re<ain too =orriso<e to iBnore. *he *asL 5orce reco<<ends that NASA choose search and deflection caFa>ilities that <ini<iAe the total co<>ined cost of confrontinB f;t;re i<Fact threats . !o8 is ke: J no second chances after an asteroid strike AM"S #"S"A#$H $"!*"# 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he

center is involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

We cannot rel@ on statistics alone to Frotect ;s fro< catastroFheM s;ch a strateB@ is liLe ref;sinB to >;@ fire ins;rance >eca;se >laAes are infreP;ent. ';r co;ntr@ si<Fl@ cannot afford to =ait for the first <odern occ;rrence of a devastatinB N!' i<Fact >efore taLinB steFs to adeP;atel@ address this threat. We <a@ not have the l;K;r@ of a second chanceC for ti<e is not necessaril@ on o;r side. If =e do not act no=C and =e s;>seP;entl@ learn too late of an i<FendinB collision aBainst =hich =e cannot defendC it =ill not <atter =ho sho;ld have <oved to Frevent the catastroFhe . . . onl@ that the@ failed to do so =hen the@ had the oFFort;nit@ to Frevent it.

Asteroids Aff -2/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

# SB $A($>(>S !*"#,"! !) A$*+#S

+ther 6otentia4 threats are a4read: being dea4t 8ith b: 6o4ic:2akers and the 60b4icasteroids are ignored $H $H (! SB% A!D " S"!E"#)"# 2010 :1raciela ChichilnisL@ and Peter !isen>erBerC Col;<>ia 4niversit@C DAsteroids7 AssessinB

CatastroFhic "isLsCE To;rnal of Pro>a>ilit@ and StatisticsC httF7&&===.hinda=i.co<&?o;rnals&?Fs&%010&-54+50&J ';r rational decision <aLer =ho val;es the f;t;re of the sFecies and ;nderstands =hat Fro>a>ilities reall@ <eanC co;ld Bo thro;Bh the follo=inB si<Fle anal@sis. 5or an@ val;e of even close to one-half the eKFected val;e =e have calc;lated <aLes asteroids <ore threateninB than Blo>al =ar<inB that is attractinB all the attention of Folic@ <aLers and the F;>lic toda@. In one sense this is satisf@inB since =e =o;ld liLe to >elieve that =e =o;ld Bive Breat val;e to Frevent o;r eKtinction. o=everC =e ;sed the n;<>er of 4S S 3 0 0 trillion : I 1 & % J for the eKFected val;e and arB;ed that it is =hat =e sho;ld sFend to defend aBainst eKtinction. *his does not see< int;itivel@ correct for <an@ reasonsC not the least of =hich is that =e =o;ld have no reso;rces left to do an@thinB else. *he ans=er to this dile<<a is to recoBniAe that =hat =e are reall@ interested in is ;tilit@ loss fro< eKtinction rather than eKFected val;e for the dollars =e allocate. *his vie= can helF ;s achieve an int;itivel@ FleasinB ans=er that

=e sho;ld sFend as <;ch <one@ toda@ on defenses aBainst eKtinction as can >e ;sef;ll@ transferred into i<Froved Frotection. In the case of asteroids >ased on c;rrent esti<ates <an@ eKFerts >elieve this <iBht >e onl@ a>o;t 1 0 ti<es =hat =e are no= sFendinB =hich is a>o;t 4S S 3 0 <illion dollars. *his is a s<all n;<>er and the corrected val;ation of the risL is hiBh eno;Bh that =e sho;ld need no f;rther anal@sis to decide to increase o;r efforts no= and =hen ne= oFFort;nities >eco<e availa>le in the f;t;re.10. Concl;sionsWe >elieve that the a>ove anal@sis is the >eBinninB of a <;ch <ore eKtensive assess<ent and research a>o;t o;r resFonse to all Linds of
catastroFhic risLs. "ecent res;lts Frovide =a@s to enhance o;r s;>?ective ?;dB<ents a>o;t the val;e of C =hich is aFFroKi<ated >@ the <arBinal ;tilit@ of avoidinB eKtinction near the catastroFheC see the st;d@ >@ ChichilnisL@ in N4O. 'ther <ethods co;ld incl;de the aFFlication of (a@esian anal@sis involvinB eKFerts =ho ;nderstand the nat;re of the threats as =ell as the correct <eaninB of lo= Fro>a>ilit@ events. A (a@esian aFFroach can >e helFf;l to deter<ine >oth the tr;e risL Frofile and the <ost Fla;si>le ;tilit@ f;nction for the ;se of reso;rces to co<>at a Biven threat. S;ch eval;ations identif@ not onl@ hiBh eKFected val;e >;t also hiBh ;tilit@.

If there are ver@ eKFensive thinBs =e can do to Frevent the risL the the allocations of a larBe a<o;nt of reso;rces <a@ >e =arranted and the Fro>le< >eco<es <ore co<Flicated. ';r Folitical leaders =ill need to <aLe the <ore diffic;lt choices >et=een <eetinB toda@sQ needs co<Fared =ith the need to defend aBainst distant catastroFhic threats. *his is not a ne= challenBe since =e and other nations sFend a siBnificant Fart of o;r reso;rces to defend aBainst the threat of n;clear =ar or the n;clear =inter that =o;ld follo= it. What is ne= is that no= =e recoBniAe that <an@ serio;s threats liLe those arisinB fro< BlaciationC asteroid i<FactC and >iodiversit@ loss are ;nliLel@ to occ;r =ithin o;r lifeti<esC @et =e do not =ant to =aLe ;F one da@ and find that =e are facinB the i<Fact of =hat =as an avoida>le catastroFhic risL . 5;rther<ore
the sa<e t@Fe of deficienc@ in o;r aFFroach also eKists for ver@ rare events liLe ts;na<is and earthP;aLes also leadinB to a Foor allocation of reso;rcesC as =as liLel@ the case for the %005 Asian ts;na<i. *his =orL Frovides a fra<e=orL to address these threats in a =a@ that aBrees =ith o;r int;ition. We =o;ld liLe to allocate reso;rces in a =a@ that can >e ;sef;l in red;cinB the catastroFhic threats =e face. In concl;sion =e offer another FersFective that <iBht also >e ;sef;l for ;nderstandinB =h@ it is no= that =e are confrontinB the dile<<as. An analoB@ <iBht helF. !arl@ on no>od@ sFent a lot of <one@ on Fersonal ins;rance to Frotect hi<&herself. As =e Bained <ore Lno=ledBe of the risLs =e face and as =e >eca<e affl;ent eno;Bh =e decided to sFend increasinB a<o;nts of <one@ on ins;rance. In a si<ilar =a@ o;r

sFecies onl@ recentl@ has o>tained the Lno=ledBe of so<e of the catastroFhic risLs =e face and develoFed =a@s to coFe =ith the<. 5or the <o<ent =e are serio;sl@ ;nderins;red so an@ =a@ that =e can do ;sef;l thinBs to red;ce o;r risL =e sho;ld do so. So<eda@ in the f;t;re =e <a@ >e challenBed as =e =ere doinB the cold =ar to decide >et=een Fresent risLs and f;t;re ones.

Asteroids Aff --/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

# SB $A($>(>SMA)! *>D" B"%

Magnit0de of threat dri5es i26act ca40c40s 9eeb4es 2000 :C;rtisC is an aerosFace historian for the S<ithsonian Instit;tion and the a;thor of several >ooLs dealinB =ith aviation and aerial Fheno<enaC S<ithsonian Instit;teC Asteroids7 A histor@C FBs %11%30J&&D* An asteroid or co<et i<Fact is the onl@ nat;ral disaster that can =iFe o;t h;<an societ@ and the onl@ nat;ral disaster that h;<an societ@ can Frevent. A larBe i<Fact is an i<Fro>a>le event that is a>sol;tel@ B;aranteed to occ;r. 'ver the sFan of BeoloBical ti<eC ver@ larBe i<Facts have haFFened co;ntless ti<es and =ill occ;r co;ntless <ore ti<es in aBes to co<e. #et in an@ Biven @earC or in one FersonQs lifeti<eC the chance of a larBe i<Fact is vanishinBl@ s<all. *he sa<eC it sho;ld >e notedC =as also tr;e =hen the dinosa;rs r;led !arth. *henC on one ordinar@ da@C Fro>a>ilit@ arrived in the for< of a co<etC and their =orld ended. *heir onl@ to<>stone =as a thin la@er of iridi;<. As can >e o;rs. 9robabi4it: is irre4e5antthe i26act is too big Morrison 200; - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC D DefendinB the !arth ABainst Asteroids7 *he Case for a 1lo>al "esFonse E
httF7&&===.Frinceton.ed;&sBs&F;>lications&sBs&Fdf&13X%01-%X%0/orrision.Fdf Science and 1lo>al Sec;rit@C 137,+W103 J While the

level of haAard is s;fficient to =arrant F;>lic concern and ?;stif@ Fossi>le Bovern<ent actionC its nat;re Flaces it in a cateBor@ >@ itself. 4nliLe <ore fa<iliar haAardsC the i<Fact risL is Fri<aril@ fro< eKtre<el@ rare events.literall@ ;nFrecedented in h;<an histor@. Altho;Bh there is a chance of the order one in a <illion that each individ;al =ill die in an@ one @ear fro< an i<FactC it is not the case that one o;t of each <illion FeoFle dies each @ear fro< an i<Fact. *he eKFectation val;e for i<Fact cas;alties =ithin an@ sinBle lifeti<e is nearl@ Aero. *he <ost i<Fortant consideration for societ@ is notC thereforeC the averaBe fatalities Fer @earC a n;<>er that is <eaninBless to <ost FeoFleC >;t rather the P;estion of =hen and =here the neKt i<Fact =ill taLe Flace. It is the F;rFose of the SFaceB;ard S;rve@ to ans=er this P;estionC not to i<Frove o;r ;nderstandinB of the i<Fact freP;enc@ or the statistical risL.We <;st find each asteroidC one at a ti<eC and calc;late its or>itC in order to deter<ine =hether an@ are act;all@ on a collision co;rse. If there is s;ch a threateninB asteroidC =e=ant to identif@ itC indeFendent of the statistical freP;enc@ of i<Facts.

***SMA(( AS*"#+ D AD,A!*A)"

Asteroids Aff -4/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

2A$ SMA(( AS*"#+ D $A#D

An Asteroid i26act co04d be 2istaken for a n0c4ear 8ea6on@ triggering a n0c4ear 8ar@ or if 4et thro0gh the at2os6here@ co04d re4ease an i26act e10i5a4ent to a 100 ki4oton or higher n0c4ear detonation@ 64an increases s0r5ei44ance to 6re5ent this@ Eosker 02 :Staff sBt. A.T.C SeFte<>er 1+C DAsteroid I<Fact Co;ld ave *riBBered India-PaListan N;clear WarC 1eneral Sa@sEC httF7&&===.freereF;>lic.co<&foc;s&ne=s&+5%,-0&FostsJ WashinBton - SeF 1+C %00% *his s;<<erC <;ch of the =orld =atched as India and PaListan faced-off over the disF;ted 0ash<ir reBionC =orried that the sho=do=n co;ld escalate into a n;clear =ar. Coincidentall@C 4.S. earl@ =arninB satellites detected an eKFlosion in the !arthQs at<osFhere T;ne $C at the heiBht of the tensionC =ith an enerB@ release esti<ated to >e 1% Lilotons. 5ort;natel@ the detonation C eP;ivalent to the >last that destro@ed iroshi<aC occ;rred over the /editerranean Sea. o=everC if it had occ;rred at the sa<e latit;de a fe= ho;rs earlierC the res;lt on h;<an affairs <iBht have >een <;ch =orseC said (riB. 1en. Si<on P. WordenC 4.S. SFace Co<<andQs deF;t@ director for oFerations at Peterson Air 5orce (aseC Colo. ad the >riBht flashC acco<Fanied >@ a da<aBinB shocL =aveC occ;rred over India or PaListanC the res;ltinB Fanic co;ld have sFarLed a n;clear =arC Worden recentl@ told <e<>ers of the conBressionall@ <andated Co<<ission
on the 5;t;re of the 4. S. AerosFace Ind;str@ in testi<on@ here. Altho;Bh 4.S. officials P;icLl@ deter<ined that a <eteor ca;sed the eKFlosionC neither India nor PaListan have the soFhisticated sensors that can deter<ine the difference >et=een a nat;ral near-!arth o>?ect

i<Fact and a n;clear detonation C Worden said in =ritten testi<on@. *his is one of <an@ threats Fosed >@ N!'sC esFeciall@ as <ore and <ore nations acP;ire n;clear =eaFon sC said WordenC =ho aFFeared >efore the co<<ission as a scientist =ho has st;died
N!'s and as a sFace eKFert fa<iliar =ith the technoloBies that can >e ;sed to address the N!' threat. In recent @earsC the DeFart<ent of Defense has >een =orLinB to Frovide data a>o;t asteroid striLes to nations Fotentiall@ ;nder <issile attacL and to the scientific co<<;nit@M ho=everC it taLes several =eeLs for the data to >e released since <;ch of it is Bathered fro< classified s@ste<s. Worden s;BBested that a N!' =arninB center >e esta>lished that can assess and release this data as soon as Fossi>le to all interested Farties =hile ens;rinB sensitive data is safeB;arded. e reco<<ended to the co<<ission that a nat;ral i<Fact =arninB clearinBho;se co;ld >e for<ed >@ addinB no <ore than 10 FeoFle to c;rrent 4.S. SFace Co<<and earl@ =arninB centers. *his orBaniAation =o;ld cataloB and Frovide credi>le =arninB infor<ation on f;t;re N!' i<Fact Fro>le<sC as =ell as raFidl@ Frovide infor<ation on the nat;re of an i<Fact. In order for this clearinBho;se to Frovide acc;rate infor<ationC N!'s <;st first >e detectedC

cataloBed and their or>its defined. C;rrent Bro;nd->ased s@ste<s are alread@ cataloBinB larBe Lilo<eter-siAed o>?ects >;t have a diffic;lt ti<e findinB s<aller N!'s. /ost sail >@ the earth ;nnoticed ;ntil the@ have FassedC he said. RT;st a>o;t
ever@one Lno=s of the Qdinosa;r LillerQ asteroidsCR Worden said. R*hese are o>?ectsC a fe= Lilo<eters acrossC that striLe on ti<e scales of tens of <illions of @ears. While the FrosFect of s;ch striLes Bra>s FeoFleQs attention and <aLes Breat catastroFhe <oviesC too <;ch foc;s on these events has >een co;nterFrod;ctive. We need to foc;s o;r enerBies on the s<allerC <ore i<<ediate threats.R *he s<aller striLesC =hile not eKactl@ co<<onFlaceC have occ;rred on several occasions over the Fast cent;r@C =ith Fotentiall@ devastatinB res;ltsC he said. RAn o>?ect Fro>a>l@ less than 100

<eters in dia<eter str;cL *;nB;sLa in Si>eria in 1-0,C releasinB the enerB@ eP;ivalent to a 10-<eBaton n;clear >lastCR Worden said. RIn 1--$C o;r satellite sensors detected a >;rst over 1reenland eP;al to a 100Liloton @ield. ad an@ of these str;cL over a FoF;lated areaC FerhaFs h;ndreds of tho;sands <iBht have Ferished.R An even =orse catastroFhe =o;ld >e an ocean i<Fact near a heavil@ FoF;lated shore >@ one of these *;nB;sLa-siAed o>?ects. R*he res;ltinB tidal =ave co;ld in;ndate shorelines for h;ndreds of <iles and Fotentiall@ Lill <illionsCR Worden eKFlained. R*here are h;ndreds of tho;sands of o>?ects this siAe that co<e near the !arthCR he said. RWe Lno= the or>its of ?;st a fe=. Ne= sFace-s;rveillance s@ste<s caFa>le of scanninB the entire sL@ ever@ fe= da@s are needed. *he@ co;ld ena>le ;s to co<Fletel@ cataloB and =arn of o>?ects :less than 100 <eters in dia<eterJ.R
AccordinB to WordenC this does not <ean other Bro;FsC in Fartic;lar the international scientific co<<;nit@C sho;ld not contin;e their indeFendent efforts. (;t the 4nited States is liLel@C for the foreseea>le f;t;reC to have <ost of the reP;ired sensors to do this ?o>. e added that D'D has the

disciFline and contin;it@ to ens;re consistentC lonB-ter< foc;s.

Asteroids Aff -;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

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$0rrent detection efforts ignore s2a44 asteroidsthe i26act is accidenta4 n0c4ear 8ar KA#+FF 2002 :)eonC col;<nistC *i<e /aBaAineC SeF 1+C httF7&&===.ti<e.co<&ti<e&col;<nist&?aroff&article&0C-5$5C351+31C00.ht<lGJ
(riB. 1en Pete WordenC deF;t@ director of the 4.S. SFace Co<<andC disa>;sed <e of that notion. *ho;Bh

An@ho=C after all thatC I had Bood reason to thinL that I Lne= Fracticall@ ever@thinB there =as to Lno= a>o;t asteroids and their threat to !arth . ;ntil this s;<<erC =hen

the asteroid detection FroBra< has so far concentrated on findinB the >iB B;@sC civiliAation-endinB <onsters a>o;t siK-tenths of a <ile across or larBerC Worden thinLs that the <ore Flentif;lC and harder-to-detect s<aller ones Fresent a <ore i<<inent threat . /an@ of these asteroids are not <assive eno;Bh to Fenetrate the at<osFhere and striLe !arth. (;tC as the@ h;rtle into the at<osFhere at tens of tho;sands of <iles Fer ho;rC friction heats the< so raFidl@ that the@ eKFlode >efore reachinB the Bro;nd. (@ no=C =eQve all heard of the asteroidC a>o;t 300 ft. in dia<eterC that in 1-0, eKFloded
h;ndred sP;are <iles. And as recentl@ as 1--$C an asteroid eKFloded over 1reenland =ith the eP;ivalent of a 100 Liloton >last.

a>o;t five <iles a>ove the ;ninha>ited *;nB;sLa reBion of Si>eria. *he >lastC esti<ated toda@ at 10 <eBatonsC >;rned and felled trees and Lilled =ildlife over an area of several

ad either of these intr;ders fro< sFace <et their de<ise overC sa@C )ondon or Ne= #orLC h;ndreds of tho;sands <iBht have Ferished. *hatQs >ad eno;BhC and =eQd certainl@ >etter start looLinB harder for the s<aller B;@s. (;tC as Worden =arnsC these di<in;tive asteroids can triBBer a danBer even Breater that their eKFlosive Fotential. )ast T;ne for eKa<FleC d;rinB the standoff >et=een n;clear Fo=ers India and PaListanC an asteroid no <ore than 30 feet across eKFloded over the /editerranean sea =ith the force of a one Liloton >o<>. ad that >last occ;rred an@=here over the s;>continent C Worden fearsC neither side co;ld have distinB;ished >et=een a n;clear >last and an eKFlodinB asteroid. /istaLinB the event as a first striLeC the@ <iBht have la;nched a n;clear eKchanBe and Lilled <illions . S2a44 asteroid i26act co04d ca0se a n0c4ear 8ar bet8een ndia and 9akistan EE$ !"WS 2002 :DAsteroids co;ld triBBer n;clear =arCE T;l@ 15C httF7&&ne=s.>>c.co.;L&%&hi&science&nat;re&%1%,4,,.st<J A s<all asteroid co;ld accidentall@ triBBer a n;clear =ar if <istaLen for a <issile striLe C eKFerts have =arned. An asteroid eKFlosion over India or PaListan co;ld ;nleash n;clear =ar Scientists and <ilitar@ chiefs st;d@inB the threat are callinB for a

Blo>al =arninB centre to >e set ;F to infor< Bovern<ents i<<ediatel@ of asteroid i<Facts. *he risL is seen as Fartic;larl@ Brave if an asteroid >last =ere to haFFen in areas of <ilitar@ tensionC s;ch as over n;clear-ar<ed neiBh>o;rs India and PaListan !ach @ear a>o;t 30 asteroids several <etres in lenBth Fierce the at<osFhere and eKFlodeC =ith even the s<aller siAed ones ;nleashinB as <;ch enerB@ as the n;clear >o<> droFFed on iroshi<a in TaFan. QPanicQ reaction !arlier this <onthC an Israeli Filot fl@inB an airliner over the 4Lraine reForted seeinB a >l;e flash in the sL@ si<ilar to the t@Fe of >last ca;sed >@ a s;rface-to-air <issileC desFite 4Lrainian a;thorities sa@inB no s;ch <issile had >een fired. !KFerts no= >elieve the Filot sa= an eKFlosion ca;sed >@ an asteroid enterinB the !arthQs at<osFhere at hiBh sFeed. !KFerts <et last =eeL in the 4S caFital WashinBton DC to disc;ss =hat <iBht have haFFened had s;ch an eKFlosion occ;rred over a volatile area s;ch as the India-PaListan reBion. R Neither

of those nations has the soFhisticated sensors =e do that can deter<ine the difference >et=een a nat;ral Neo :near-!arth o>?ectJ i<Fact and a n;clear detonationCR Air 5orce (riBadier 1eneral Si<on Worden fro< the 4S SFace Co<<and told the AerosFace Dail@ ne=sFaFer. R*he res;ltinB Fanic in the n;clear-ar<ed and hair-triBBer <ilitaries there co;ld have >een the sFarL for a n;clear =ar.R #isk of 2isca4c is high. asteroids set off e5en >S sate44ites $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es .C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* *here is @et anotherC s<aller class of Fotential i<Facts a>o;t =hich =e need to >e concerned. *hese are i<Facts that are the siAe of a small ato<ic >o<>C to ;se an aFFarent oK@<oron. *hese are ca;sed >@ rocLs too s<all to Fenetrate the !arthQs at<osFhere. *he@ eKFlode too hiBh in the sL@ to ca;se an@ siBnificant da<aBe. o=everC these i<Facts are detected >@ >oth the 4nited States and ";ssia thro;Bh o;r earl@ =arninB s@ste<s. It is i<Fortant to recoBniAe these for =hat the@ areC or else =e co;ld <aLe a hast@C and =ronBC decision >ased ;Fon the >elief that an ato<ic attacL has occ;rred so<e=here in the =orld. An eKa<Fle of this =as cited >@ 4.S. Air 5orce Colonel Si<on P-Worden at the )os Ala<os <eetinB. e saidC RI =ant to anno;nce that the 4.S. DeFart<ent of Defense sensors did detect on the first of 'cto>er 1--0 ro;Bhl@ a ten-Liloton i<Fact. It =as an air>;rst in the central Pacific. I note the siBnificance of this dale >eca;se had the striLe occ;rred at that ti<e not in the central PacificC >;t in the /iddle !astC it co;ld eas il@ have >een <istaLen for a n;clear detonation and co;ld have triBBered ver@ serio;s conseP;ences .R

Asteroids Aff -'/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

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S2a44 asteroids risk 8ar fro2 2isca4c04ation J canDt disting0ish bet8een !"+ i26act and n0c4ear b0rsts and the: take o0t sate44itesJ -0 s2a44 asteroid hits 6er :ear Worden 2002 - 4nited States SFace Co<<andC Peterson Air 5orce (ase :'cto>er %4C S.P.C D /ilitar@ PersFectives on the Near-!arth '>?ect :NeoJ *hreat. E NASA
WorLshoF on Scientific "eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of *he *hreat7 *=o

aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC httF7&&===.noao.ed;&<eetinBs&<itiBation&<edia&arlinBton.eKtended.Fdf FB. 101 J

and a half <onths aBoC PaListan and India =ere at f;ll alert and Foised for a larBe-scale =arC =hich >oth sides aFFeared read@ to escalate into n;clear =ar. *he sit;ation has def;sedWfor no=. /ost of the =orld Lne= a>o;t this sit;ation and =atched and =orried. (;t fe= Lno= of an event over the /editerranean on T;ne $th of this @ear that co;ld have had a serio;s >earinB on that o;tco<e . 4.S. earl@ =arninB satellites detected a flash that indicated an enerB@ release co<Fara>le to the iroshi<a >;rst. We see a>o;t 30 s;ch >;rsts Fer @earC >;t this one =as one of the larBest =e have ever seen. *he event =as ca;sed >@ the i<Fact of a s<all asteroidC Fro>a>l@ a>o;t 5-10 <eters in dia<eterC on the earth8s at<osFhere. ad @o; >een
sit;ated on a vessel directl@ ;nderneathC the intensel@ >riBht flash =o;ld have >een follo=ed >@ a shocL =ave that =o;ld have rattled the entire shiFC and Fossi>l@ ca;sed <inor da<aBe. *he

event of this T;ne received little or no notice as far as =e can tell. o=everC if it had occ;rred at the sa<e latit;de ?;st a fe= ho;rs earlierC the res;lt on h;<an affairs <iBht have >een <;ch =orse. I<aBine that the >riBht flash acco<Fanied >@ a da<aBinB shocL =ave had occ;rred over India or PaListan. *o o;r Lno=ledBeC neither of those nations have the soFhisticated sensors that can deter<ine the difference >et=een a nat;ral N!' i<Fact and a n;clear detonation. *he res04ting 6anic in the n0c4ear.ar2ed and hairtriggered o66osing forces co04d ha5e been the s6ark that ignited a n0c4ear horror 8e ha5e a5oided for o5er a ha4f cent0r:& I8ve ?;st rela@ed one asFect of N!'s that sho;ld =orr@ ;s all. As <ore and <ore nations acP;ire n;clear =eaFonsWnations =itho;t the soFhisticated controls and caFa>ilities >;ilt ;F >@ the 4nited States over the 40 @ears of Cold WarW=e sho;ld ens;re the 30-odd @earl@ i<Facts on the ;FFer at<osFhere are =ell ;nderstood >@ all to >e ?;st =hat the@ are. A fe= @ears aBo those of ;s charBed =ith FrotectinB this Nation8s vital sFace s@ste<sC s;ch as the 1lo>al PositioninB S@ste<C >eca<e a=are of another asFect of the N!' Fro>le<. *his =as the )eonid <eteor stor<. *his Fartic;lar stor< occ;rs ever@ 33 @ears. It is ca;sed >@ the de>ris fro< a different t@Fe of N!'Wa co<et. When the earth Fasses thro;Bh the Fath of a co<etC it can enco;nter the d;st thro=n off >@ that co<et thro;Bh its FroBressive Fasses >@ the s;n. *his d;st is visi>le on the earth as a sFectac;lar <eteor stor<. (;t o;r satellites in sFace can eKFerience the stor< as a series of intensel@ da<aBinB <icro<eteorite striLes. We Lno= a>o;t <an@ of these stor<s and =e have fiB;red o;t their Farent co<et so;rces. (;t there are so<e stor<s arisinB fro< co<ets that are too di< for ;s to see that can Frod;ce Ds;rFriseE events. 'ne of these <eteor stor<s has the Fotential of LnocLinB o;t so<e or even <ost of o;r earthor>itinB s@ste<s. If ?;st one rando< satellite fail;re in a FaBer co<<;nications satellite a fe= @ears aBo serio;sl@ disr;Fted o;r livesC i<aBine =hat losinB doAens of satellites co;ld do. S2a44 asteroid strike ca0ses n0c4ear 8ar A2es #esearch $enter 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he center is

involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

!ven s<all N!' i<Facts in the at<osFhereC on the s;rfaceC or at sea create eKFlosions that co;ld eKacer>ate eKistinB Folitical tensions and escalate into <a?or international confrontations. 5or eKa<FleC an at<osFheric i<Fact in %00% Frod;ced a larBeC hiBhl@ visi>le >;rst of liBht in the sL@ d;rinB the heiBht of =ar tensions >et=een n;clear-ar<ed co;ntries India and PaListan. *hat hiBh-altit;de eKFlosion haFFened to occ;r over the /editerraneanC ?;st a fe= tho;sand <iles fro< their disF;ted >order reBion. ad that N!' i<Fact occ;rred less than three ho;rs earlierC it =o;ld have detonated over so;thern AsiaC =here its <isinterFretation as a s;rFrise attacL co;ld have triBBered a deadl@ n;clear eKchanBe. With <ilitar@ and diFlo<atic tensions at their FeaL in other areas of conflict in the =orldC the Fotential for a <istaLe is even Breater toda@.

Asteroids Aff -7/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

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9otentia4 i26act of s2a44 asteroids is higher than e5erJ6o604ation densit: and 0rbaniAation (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J 4sinB o;r recent st;dies of co<ets and asteroidsC i t has >eco<e clear that averaBe i<Fact raters do not tell the =hole stor@. I<Fact Rstor<sR <;st occ;r :chaFter 11J. /ost of the i<Factors striLe the ocean :chaFter 1%JC =here so<e <a@ deFosit their o=n content of =ater and other icesC as on /erc;r@ and 2en;sC orC in s;fficientl@ larBe i<FactsC even >last off Fart of !arthQs at<osFhere into sFace. (;t all oceanic i<Facts thro= ;F <assive tidal =aves that can devastate coastal reBions =itho;t leavinB an@ distinctive siBnat;re that sa@sC Rthis =as an i<Fact event.R ;<an cas;alties are Fossi>le fro< an@ event that droFs LiloBra<-siAed <eteoritesC and <an@ s;ch events have >een reForted :chaFter 13JC onl@ to >e dis<issed >@ <eteorite eKFerts =ho de<and a>s;rdl@ hiBh standards of Froof. (;t clearl@ the real haAard lies =ith larBerC rarer >odies. !ven a <odest aerial eKFlosion liLe the fifteen-<eBaton *;nB;sLa event =o;ld ;tterl@ devastate a <odern cit@. *he Bro=th of Blo>al FoF;lation in the last fe= cent;riesC the ;r>aniAation of h;<an c;lt;re into Blass >oKesC and the vast increase in FoF;lation alonB the seacoastsC all cons6ire to increase the risk fro2 airb0rsts and ts0na2is enor2o0s4: . What are the liLel@ events of the t=ent@-first cent;r@G What can =e eKFect to occ;r in o;r lifeti<esG *his P;estion can no= >e ans=ered statisticall@ >@ <eans of the Frocess of co<F;ter si<;lation . All the availa>le evidence on near>@ >odies in sFace is folded into a statistical <odel of the siAeC co<Fosition and strenBthC a>;ndanceC and or>its of the near-!arth asteroid and co<et FoF;lation. All the evidence on the effects of Biant eKFlosions fro< st;dies of n;clear =eaFons testsC craterinBC Bas in?ectionC air>;rstsC fire iBnitionC shocL-=ave che<istr@C acid rainC and at<osFheric erosion on !arth and other Flanets is incl;ded in statistical for<. All Fresentl@ ;nderstood haAards to life and FroFert@C insofar as =e have discovered the<C are also
incl;ded. We can then r;n the <odel for a Feriod of a cent;r@ :a nat;ral h;<an ti<e scaleJ to see =hat <iBht haFFen. I have chosen the t=entieth cent;r@ as the settinB for these r;ns >eca;se =e Lno= the FoF;lationC FoF;lation densit@C and technoloBical a>ilities of !arth for that ti<e Feriod. *he t=entieth cent;r@ Frovides a vehicle for <ore <eaninBf;l eKFloration of the infl;ence s;ch cos<ic events =o;ld have had ;Fon the =orld.

***S+(,"!$%

Asteroids Aff -8/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

)"!"#A( S+(,"!$%
*he 64an so45es asteroid co44ision A2es #esearch $enter 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he center is

involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

We reco<<end that ConBress taLe the follo=inB <eas;res to enhance the search for N!'s7 * Increase search activities for detection of N!'s 0.$% <iles :1 Lilo<eterJ in dia<eter and larBer. "esearchers esti<ate that onl@ onehalf of s;ch N!'s have >een located. *he Face of identification sho;ld >e accelera ted. S;FFort for So;thern e<isFhere search activities <a@ f;rther increase the discover@ rate and sho;ld >e eKFanded. !ven =hen NASA achieves its c;rrent Boal of identif@inB -0X of larBe N!'sC the ;ndiscovered re<ainder =illC of co;rseC still Fose a Fotential haAard. ConBress sho;ld direct NASA to F;rs;e the search for all s;ch o>?ects to statistical co<Fletion. * !KFand the search effort to incl;de detection and tracLinB of N!'s s<aller than 0.$% <iles :1 Lilo<eterJ. N!'s s;ch as %00% /N :a>o;t a h;ndred @ards acrossJ are not c;rrentl@ the tarBet of an@ for<al search FroBra<. "atherC the@ are discovered as >@-Frod;cts of the search for larBer o>?ects. (eca;se an i<Fact of even a relativel@ s<all N!' co;ld still destro@ a <a?or cit@C the 4nited States sho;ld esta>lish the Boal of FredictinB an@ close aFFroach to !arth >@ an@ asteroid larBer than %00 @ards in dia<eter. * Increase f;ndinB for the /inor Planet Center :/PCJ to S1 <illion ann;all@. *he /PC is resFonsi>le for the collectionC co<F;tation and disse<ination of the characteristics and or>its of asteroids and co<ets. As the central international clearinBho;se for tracLinB N!'sC it sho;ld >e f;nded at a level <ore co<<ens;rate =ith its i<Fortant role in ;nderstandinB and addressinB the N!' threat. * Provide f;ndinB for <ore and >etter instr;<entation and additional follo=-;F o>servations. In addition to <aintaininB eKistinB oFtical and radar search FroBra<sC NASA sho;ld >e Biven the added reso;rces and <andate to enhance the instr;<entation dedicated to N!' detection and to resFond to N!' discoveries =ith <ore detailed o>servations. S;ch radar and sFectroscoFic o>servations are vital to refine
asteroid or>its and deter<ine an N!'s Beneral co<Fosition.

ncreasing detection a44o8s 0s to 6re5ent a co44ision!ASA has the ca6acit: b0t 20st do 2ore !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

NASA has develoFed a stronB fo;ndation for ;nderstandinB the N!' haAard and >;ildinB a lonB-ter< caFa>ilit@ to co;nter a Fotential asteroid i<Fact threat. (@ taLinB the steFs reco<<ended in this reFortC the aBenc@ can eKFand this eKFertise and lead Blo>al efforts to develoF an effective caFa>ilit@ for Planetar@ Defense. Societ@ no= Fossesses s;fficientl@ <at;re sFace technoloB@ to Frovide t=o of the three ele<ents necessar@ to Frevent f;t;re da<aBinB asteroid i<Facts. NASA c;rrentl@ searches for the larBest o>?ects of concern and iss;es =arninB infor<ation for an@ asteroid discovered to aFFroach !arth. Ne= Bro;nd- and sFace->ased search s@ste<s can increase o;r caFa>ilit@ to Frovide i<Fact =arninB for the s<allerC <ore n;<ero;s asteroids. Altho;Bh NASA has not de<onstrated a sFecific asteroid deflection caFa>ilit@C the aBenc@8s c;rrent sFacefliBht technoloB@ sho=s that i<Fact Frevention is Fossi>le. Act;al N!' deflection de<onstrations are >einB st;died and are eKcellent candidates to >e Fart of f;t;re N!' science and technoloB@ <issions. *he <issinB third ele<ent for N!' i<Fact Frevention is the international co<<;nit@8s readiness and deter<ination to resFond to a Fredicted f;t;re asteroid collision =ith !arth. NASA is =ell%0 Fositioned to taLe a leadinB role in this Bovern<ent and international resFonseC >;t to >e read@C the aBenc@ <;st <ove =ell >e@ond searchC anal@sisC and =arninB to develoF the Fractical <eans for act;all@ chanBinB a threateninB asteroid8s or>it. Witho;t the a>ilit@ to detect the <ost n;<ero;s asteroidsC to alter N!' or>itsC and to lead a Blo>al effort to Flan a deflection ca<FaiBnC the onl@ Fossi>le 4.S. resFonse =o;ld >e evac;ation and disaster resFonse. If NASA fails to FreFare for Planetar@ DefenseC and then a siAea>le rando< N!' striLes !arth =itho;t =arninBC the da<aBe to the 4.S.8s leadershiF and reF;tation =o;ld s=ell the tall@ of the event8s devastatinB effects. NASA sho;ld >eBin =orL no= on forBinB its =arninBC technoloB@C and leadershiF caFacities into a Blo>al eKa<Fle of ho= to effectivel@ shield societ@ fro< a f;t;re i<Fact.

Asteroids Aff -?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!ASA B"%
!ASA has 0ni10e asteroid e76ertise and ongoing research M>## (( A!D WHA("! 1??8 :/ar@ (eth /;rrill and /arL WhalenC NASAC DTP) =ill esta>lish Near-!arth '>?ect ProBra< 'ffice for NASACE T;l@
%4C httF7&&neo.?Fl.nasa.Bov&FroBra<&neo.ht<lJ RWe deter<ined that in order to achieve o;r Boals =e

need a <ore for<al foc;sinB of o;r near-!arth o>?ect tracLinB efforts and related co<<;nications =ith the s;FFortinB research co<<;nit@CR said Dr. Carl PilcherC science director for Solar S@ste< !KFloration in NASAQs 'ffice of SFace ScienceC NASA eadP;arters. RI =ant to e<FhasiAe that science research solicitations and res;ltinB Feer revie=sC international coordinationC and strateBic FlanninB reBardinB f;t;re <issions =ill re<ain the resFonsi>ilit@ of NASA eadP;arters.R In addition to <anaBinB the detection and cataloBinB of near-!arth o>?ectsC the ne= NASA office =ill >e resFonsi>le for facilitatinB co<<;nications >et=een the astrono<ical co<<;nit@ and the F;>lic sho;ld an@ Fotentiall@ haAardo;s o>?ects >e discovered as a res;lt of the FroBra< C Pilcher said. TP) =as selected to host the FroBra< office >eca;se of its eKFertise in Frecision tracLinB of the Fositions and Fredicted Faths of asteroids and co<ets. No siBnificant additional staff hirinB at TP) is eKFected at this ti<e. R*here is so<e eKtraordinar@ research >einB done on near-!arth o>?ects and <;ch of it is onBoinB here at TP)CR #eo<ans said. !ASA is e26irica44: s0ccessf04 !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 2010 W "esearch Co;ncil

Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesand SFace St;dies (oard Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical Sciences :DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesEC httF7&&site.e>rar@.co<.FroK@.li>.;<ich.ed;&li>&;<ich&docDetail.actionGdocIDI1040510%J&&D*

*he )IN!A" FroBra< at the /assach;setts Instit;te of *echnoloB@ )incoln )a>orator@ is f;nded >@ the 4.S. Air 5orce and NASA and =as the <ost s;ccessf;l N!' search FroBra< fro< 1--+ ;ntil %004. *he Boal of )IN!A" is to de<onstrate the aFFlication of technoloB@ oriBinall@ develoFed for the s;rveillance of !arth-or>itinB satellites to the discoverinB and cataloB;inB of N!'s. )IN!A" consists of a Fair of 1!'DSS telescoFes at the )incoln )a>orator@Qs
!KFeri<ental *est Site at White Sands /issile "anBe in Socorro. Ne= /eKico. *hese t=o I -<eter-dia<eter telescoFes =ere event;all@ ?oined >@ a third telescoFe ;sed for the confir<ation of N!' or>its and =ere a>le to detect asteroids as faint as / I %0. )IN!A" s;>stantiall@ and overtooL that of )IN!A".

has discovered %.%10 N!'s and acco;nted for <ore than 50 Fercent of all N!' discoveries fro< 1--, to %004. In %005. the rate of discoveries >@ the Catalina SL@ S;rve@ increased

Asteroids Aff 40/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

F>!D !) S+(,"!$%
ncreased !"+ detection efforts 8o04d dra2atica44: increase the rate of disco5er: A2es #esearch $enter 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he center is

involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

*he 4nited States is c;rrentl@ enBaBed in a search for all N!'s Breater than 0.$% <iles :a Lilo<eterJ in dia<eter. *he effort is Frod;cinB res;ltsC >;t onl@ a fe= doAen researchers are f;nded to cond;ct this >asic s;rve@. "eso;rces co<<itted to this =orL have >een ver@ <odest and not co<<ens;rate =ith the Fotential threat M th;sC additional invest<ent in search FroBra<s is >oth aFFroFriate and Fr;dent. A dra<atic i<Frove<ent in the rate at =hich asteroids and co<ets are discovered =o;ld liLel@ res;lt if the 4nited States =ere to increase the c;rrent level of f;ndinBC no= at a>o;t S3.5 <illion Fer @earC to at least S%0 <illion ann;all@.

Asteroids Aff 41/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

S9A$".EAS"D D"*"$* +! )++D

S6ace.based detection co2bined 8ith gro0nd assets is critica4 to detect 6otentia4 co44isions !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

,. *o achieve the N!' search Boals in a ti<el@ <anner as directed >@ the %005 1eorBe !. (ro=n N!' S;rve@ leBislationC the nation =ill liLel@ reP;ire acP;isition and oFeration of a sFace->ased s;rve@ ele<ent in addition to Bro;nd->ased s@ste<s. A sFacecraft oFeratinB =ith sensors in the infrared >and fro< an or>it s;n=ard of !arth8s :e.B.C a 2en;s-liLe or>itJ offers Breat advantaBes in raFid search and reFeat o>servation freP;enc@. -. When ;sed in con?;nction =ith Bro;nd->ased oFtical o>servationsC radar data can dra<aticall@ i<Frove or>it Lno=ledBe of recentl@ discovered N!'s. o=everC radars have li<ited sL@ coveraBe and can o>serve N!'s onl@ at relativel@ close ranBe. A <odest-aFert;reC sFace->ased infrared telescoFe =ith its advantaBeo;s or>ital Beo<etr@ :an o>servinB location and direction different than !arth8sJ co;ld ena>le a <;ch larBer total of Fositional o>servations over <;ch lonBer or>ital tracLs. S;ch tracLinB fro< , <;ltiFle solar s@ste< vantaBe Foints :e.B. !arth and a 2en;s-liLe or>itJ =ill aid in P;icLl@ red;cinB or>it ;ncertainties =hen radar follo=-;F is ;navaila>le. 10. While the search for the N!' FoF;lation larBer than 140 <eters is ;nder=a@ and the necessar@ or>it Frecision is >einB o>tainedC there =ill >e a transition Feriod or =indo= of Ferceived v;lnera>ilit@C lastinB at least t=o decades. So<e N!'s =ill Fresent =orriso<e Fro>a>ilities of i<FactC and s;fficient or>it Frecision to r;le o;t an i<Fact <a@ not >e o>tained >efore a decision <;st >e <ade to la;nch a deflection ca<FaiBn. *he <ore raFid search ena>led >@ a sFace->ased s@ste< =illC >@ aidinB earl@ Bro;nd>ased follo=;FC shorten this =indo= of v;lnera>ilit@ >@ several @ears. I<Fact threats =ill still aFFear as the cataloB nears co<FletionC >;t contin;inB o>servations =ill red;ce ;ncertaint@ and increase =arninB ti<e. S6ace based te4esco6es are ke: to detecting darker asteroids J infrared ca6abi4it: !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 2010 - Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBies SFace St;dies
(oard :D S;rve@ and Detection of Near-!arth '>?ects E FB. 33C Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical SciencesC httF7&&===.naF.ed;&oFen>ooL.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%UFaBeI33J

Asteroids in or>its that >rinB the< close to !arth are esFeciall@ <enacinB if the@ are darL and have evaded detection >@ Bro;nd->ased s;rve@s in visi>le liBht. AlsoC since the ass;<ed al>edo <iBht not >e reFresentative of a darL o>?ectC the calc;lated dia<eter co;ld >e <isreFresented as s<aller than the o>?ect8s tr;e dia<eter . (;t darL o>?ects are esFeciall@ detecta>le in infrared liBht. *he bias aBainst lo=er-al>edo :darLerJ asteroids is red0ced thro0gh the 0se of infrared obser5ations in s6ace 7 At the te<Ferat;res and al>edos that do<inate the solar s@ste< inside the or>it of /arsC the dia<eters co<F;ted fro< infrared siBnals are <ore acc;rate than those derived fro< visi>le-liBht reflections fro< asteroids and co<ets. *h;sC the detections of Fotentiall@ haAardo;s N!'s >@ an infrared telescoFe :one sensitive to infrared liBhtJ =ill res;lt in a <ore acc;rate siAe-freP;enc@ distri>;tion for these o>?ects. Additionall@C the >acLBro;nd fro< other astrono<ical so;rces is a>o;t 100 ti<es lo=er at infrared =avelenBths of 10 <icrons :a <icron is one-<illionth of a <eterJ than at visi>le =avelenBthsC since <ost stars e<it far less infrared liBht than visi>le liBht. *his difference red;ces the chance for interference fro< other stronB astrono<ical so;rces . Co<>ined =ith visi>le-liBht dataC the al>edos of N!'s detected in the infrared can also >e derived. *his derivation of al>edos offers insiBht into co<Fosition and s;rface FroFerties. *he Wide-field Infra-red S;rve@ !KFlorer for Near-!arth '>?ects :N!'WIS!JC a 4.S. <ission :see >elo=JC =ill
leveraBe this infrared advantaBe.

Asteroids Aff 42/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

S9A$".EAS"D D"*"$* +! )++D

S6ace.based te4esco6es are ke: !A* +!A( #"S"A#$H $+>!$ ( 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and
StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J *he %003 NASA N!' Science Definition *ea< St;d@ concl;ded that an aAard /itiBation

infrared sFace telescoFe is a Fo=erf;l and efficient <eans of o>taininB val;a>le and ;niP;e detection and characteriAation data on N!'s :StoLes et al.C %003J. *he ther<al infraredC =hich denotes =avelenBths of liBht fro< a>o;t 5 to 10 <icronsC is the <ost efficient color reBi<e for an N!' search. An or>itinB infrared telescoFe that detects these =avelenBths and has a <irror >et=een 0.5 and 1 <eter in dia<eter is s;fficient to satisf@ the Boal of detectinB -0 Fercent of Fotentiall@ haAardo;s N!'s 140 <eters in dia<eter or Breater. AlsoC locatinB an N!'-findinB o>servator@ internal to !arth8s or>it is Frefera>le for identif@inB N!'s =ith or>its <ostl@ or entirel@ inside !arth8s or>it. SFecific advantaBes to sFace->ased o>servations incl;de the follo=inB7 [ A sFace>ased telescoFe can search for N!'s =hose or>its are larBel@ inside !arth8s or>it. *hese o>?ects are diffic;lt to find ;sinB a Bro;nd->ased telescoFeC as o>servations risL interference fro< the S;n =hen FointinB to the areas of the sL@ >einB searchedM [ *her<al-infrared o>servations are i<<;ne to the >ias affectinB the detection of lo=-al>edo o>?ects in visi>le or near-infrared liBhtC >@ o>servinB the ther<al siBnal fro< the f;ll i<aBe of the N!'C FrovidinB <ore acc;rate al>edo <eas;re<ents :see the disc;ssion a>oveJM [ SFace->ased searches can >e cond;cted a>ove !arth8s at<osFhereC eli<inatinB the need to cali>rate the effects introd;ced >@ the at<osFhere on the liBht fro< an N!'M and [ '>servations can >e <ade %4 ho;rs a da@ .

Asteroids Aff 4-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

SH+#*.*"#M WA#! !) S+(,"!$%

!ASA sho04d f0nd short.ter2 8arningthis 8o04d 2itigate the i26act of asteroids that 8e canDt def4ect !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ %.3. Short-ter< WarninB7 NASA

sho;ld investiBate develoF<ent of lo= costC short-ter< i<Fact =arninB s@ste<s and enco;raBe =idesFread deFlo@<entC certainl@ >@ the international sFace aBenciesC and Fossi>l@ >@ a<ate;r and acade<ic astrono<ical co<<;nities. "ecent =orL has sho=n that relativel@ ineKFensiveC off-the-shelf telescoFe desiBns can Frovide short-ter< i<Fact =arninBs. Co<inB ?;st da@s or =eeLs >efore i<FactC s;ch detections =o;ld aid civil defense efforts =hen deflection atte<Fts are i<Fractical. *he N!' siAe-freP;enc@ distri>;tion =ith <an@ <ore s<all than larBe asteroids indicates that the <ost liLel@ near-ter< da<aBinB i<Fact =o;ld >e eKFected fro< an o>?ect %0 to 30 <eters in siAe or so<e=hat larBer. :In the event that even a s<all o>?ectC sa@ a fe= <eters in siAeC is discovered =ith a Frecise date and Flace of i<FactC it <iBht >e Fr;dent to evac;ate FeoFle or =arn the< to seeL shelterJ. *he li<ited coveraBe fro< c;rrent or Flanned search telescoFes <aLes the< incaFa>le of discoverinB a siBnificant fraction of these s<aller o>?ects :n;<>erinB in total a>o;t ten <illionJC one of =hich is eKFected to striLe !arth ever@ 50 @ears on averaBe. *hese events =ill Barner Breat F;>lic attention and =ill liLel@ de<and a coordinated Bovern<ent resFonse. "elativel@ ineKFensiveC <;ltiFle telescoFe s@ste<s co;ld discover a>o;t $0 Fercent of these o>?ects on an i<Fact tra?ector@ da@s or =eeLs in advance of a collisionC ena>linB effective evac;ation and an@ disaster resFonse. (oth the earl@ =arninB discover@ data and Fro<Ft follo=;F o>servations <;st >e inteBrated into the eKistinB N!' data cataloBinB s@ste<s :incl;dinB the <odest NASA s;>sidies co;ld ena>le ;niversities or serio;s a<ate;r astrono<@ co<<;nities to >eco<e a ;sef;l Fart of the aBenc@8s N!' =arninB s@ste<. S;ch lo=-cost s@ste<s =o;ld liLel@ also ed;cate the F;>lic and sti<;late st;dent interest in Flanetar@ defense.
PisaC Ital@. With costs for so<e of these s@ste<s in the ranBe of S1 <illion to S% <illion Fer telescoFeC donations and&or

/inor Planet CenterC the clearinBho;se for all N!' o>servationsJC and the or>it Frediction and risL co<F;tation centers at NASA8s Tet ProF;lsion )a>orator@ and N!'D@S in

Asteroids Aff 44/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

9H%S $A( !,"S* )A* +! S+(,"!$%

9h:sica4 in5estigation of 6otentia44: threatening asteroids is critica4 to res6onse !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

*o B;ide develoF<ent of effective i<Fact <itiBation techniP;esC NASA <;st acP;ire a >etter ;nderstandinB of N!' characteristics >@ ;sinB eKistinB and ne= science and eKFloration research caFa>ilitiesC incl;dinB Bro;nd->ased o>servationsC i<Fact eKFeri<entsC co<F;ter si<;lationsC and in sit; asteroid investiBation. 3.1. Ph@sical Characteristics. N!' s;rve@ FroBra<s
first order <ineraloBical co<Fosition. A

sho;ld Frovide initial Fh@sical characteriAation of discovered o>?ects. *hese characteristics incl;de siAeC reflectivit@C and color >riBhtness at =avelenBths ;sef;l for interFretinB

Le@ ele<ent in an@ defense strateB@ is to DLno= thine ene<@.E Altho;Bh the <otion of a ne=l@ discovered o>?ect can reveal =hether the or>it is cateBoriAed as DFotentiall@ haAardo;sCE the discover@ i<aBes the<selves contain little infor<ation a>o;t the N!'8s Fh@sical nat;re . In <an@ casesC an o>?ect for =hich follo=-;F Fh@sical characteriAation is ;rBentl@ needed does not Fresent another favora>le o>servinB oFFort;nit@ for @ears. N!' characteriAation is an onBoinB Frocess that >eBins at the ti<e of discover@. '>taininB >asic characteriAation <eas;re<ents i<<ediatel@ follo=inB discover@ taLes advantaBe of the sa<e favora>le o>servinB Beo<etr@ that ena>led the N!'8s detection. Si<;ltaneo;s or>it deter<ination and Freli<inar@ Fh@sical assess<ent of the o>?ect Frovides the earliest and <ost infor<ed >asis to eval;ate an@ Fossi>le threat. '>?ects classified as DFotentiall@ haAardo;sE sho;ld receive Friorit@ for follo=-;F Fh@sical o>servations fro< Bro;nd->ased facilities. In sit; characteriAation of these o>?ects :see 3.%J =ill Frovide indeFendent verification of the assess<ents <ade fro< the Bro;nd. In sit; verification of Bro;nd->ased characteriAation caFa>ilities =ill Frovide the hiBhest level of confidence for dealinB =ith an@ near-ter< N!' threatC for =hich Bro;nd->ased <eas;re<ents <a@ Frovide the onl@ characteriAation infor<ation availa>le. !eed to e764ore asteroids for def4ection AM"S #"S"A#$H $"!*"# 200- - NASA8s A<es "esearch Center is a =orld-class research facilit@ located in the heart of Silicon 2alle@. *he

center is involved =ith <an@ hiBh-tech Fro?ectsC ranBinB fro< develoFinB s<all sFacecraft to <anaBinB so<e of the =orld8s larBest s;Ferco<F;tersC and cond;ctinB astro>ioloB@ research :T;l@ ,C * Dr. arrison . Sch<itt * Dr. Carol@n S. Shoe<aLer * David . )ev@ * Dr. Tohn )e=is * Dr. Neil D. *@son * Dr. 5ree<an D@son * Dr. "ichard P. allion * Dr. *ho<as D. Tones * (r;ce Toel ";>in * Dr. );c@ Ann /c5adden * !riL C. Tones * /arc Schlather * Willia< !. (;rro=sC D NASA N!' Ne=s7 'Fen )etter to ConBress on Near !arth '>?ects E httF7&&===.sFaceref.co<&ne=s&vie=sr.ht<lGFidI-,$$ J

1iven the real Fro>a>ilit@ of an asteroid or co<et i<FactC o;r nation <;st ;nderstand N!' characteristics =ell eno;Bh to develoF Fractical <ethods to deflect the<. for diversion. Witho;t adeP;ate Lno=ledBe of the co<Fosition and <echanical FroFerties of s;ch o>?ectsC develoFinB diversion diversion strateBies =ill >e Fro>le<atic at >est and fatall@ ineffective at =orst. *hereforeC =e reco<<end that the 4nited States taLe the follo=inB action7 * /o;nt additional near-ter< ro>otic <issions to selected asteroids and !arth-aFFroachinB co<ets. (@ visitinB N!'s in o;r o=n neiBh>orhoodC =e can deter<ine their co<FositionC <eas;re their str;ct;ral and <echanical FroFertiesC and Frovide the Lno=ledBe essential to FreventinB i<Facts on !arth >@ si<ilar o>?ects. * (eBin FlanninB no= to send eKFlorers to near>@ asteroids and !arth-aFFroachinB co<ets. DeveloFinB the caFa>ilit@ to send astrona;ts to N!'s :on ro;nd-triFs lastinB ?;st a fe= <onthsJ is the neKt loBical h;<an sFacefliBht Boal for the 4nited States. S;ch eKFeditions =ill helF Frovide Frotection to !arthC serve as an ins;rance Folic@ aBainst f;t;re N!' i<Facts andC in the FrocessC eKFand o;r a>ilit@ to ;nderstand and ;se the vast and >eneficial reso;rces of sFace. Ideall@C these
vo@aBes sho;ld i<<ediatel@ follo= the co<Fletion of the International SFace StationM FlanninB for the< sho;ld start no=.

Asteroids Aff 4;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

D"*"$* +! S>FF $ "!*

Detection ca6abi4ities are ke:standing def4ection 6rogra2 is 0nnecessar: 9A#B et a4& 1??4 W President of the A<erican Ph@sical Societ@C PhD :"ichard ).C )ori (. 1arver of the National SFace Societ@ and *err@ Da=son of the 4S
of "eFresentativesC D*he )esson of 1rand 5orLs7 Can a Defense aBainst Asteroids >e S;stainedGE o;se

aAards D;e to Co<ets and Asteroids ed. *o< 1herelsC FB. 1%%5-1%%,J

A standinB defense aBainst larBe asteroid and co<et i<Facts is rendered i<Fractical >@ the lonB interval >et=een events. 1overn<entsC =hich are ;nder constant Fress;re to resFond to i<<ediate crisesC are ;nliLel@ to s;stain a defense aBainst an infreP;ent and ;nFredicta>le threat. Nor can it >e arB;ed that s;ch short-ter< Friorities are <isFlaced. IndeedC civiliAation =ill do =ell to s;rvive lonB eno;Bh to >e threatened >@ a <a?or asteroid i<Fact. *he e<Fhasis sho;ld >e on earl@ detectionC th0s a44o8ing s0fficient ti2e to 2o0nt a res6onse to a s6ecific threat&

Detection a44o8s 0s to de5e4o6 def4ection tech 8ith s0fficient ti2e ("W S 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J

*his net=orL of stations =ill discover and tracL o;r %00.000 asteroids. *he s;rve@ =ill not >e co<Flete after t=entv or thirt@ @ears >eca;se so<e of these >odies are in or>its that do not <aLe o>servationall@ favora>le Fasses >@ !arth d;rinB that ti<eC and of co;rse so<e =ill >e <issed >eca;se of Foor =eather or telescoFe do=nti<e. NonethelessC the s;rve@ =ill >e <ore than -0 Fercent co<Flete in this ti<eC and =ill contin;e to i<Frove =ith lonBer Feriods of o>servation. *he averaBe death rate fro< >odies of this siAe is a>o;t 1C000 Fer @ear for ts;na<is and 500 Fer @ear for continental i<Facts. *he rate of savinB lives =o;ld >e a>o;t -0 Fercent of this n;<>er :10 Fercent of the i<Factors re<ain ;ndiscoveredJC or 1C350 FeoFle Fer @ear. With eKFenses of a>o;t S$00 <illion sFread over the first t=ent@ @ears of intensive searchC the >;dBetar@ i<Fact is a>o;t S30 <illion Fer @earC or S%%C000

Fer life saved. *his is a ver@ reasona>le cost for a life-ins;rance Folic@. (;t loss of life is not the onl@ consideration. In BeneralC the decision =hether to taLe action aBainst a threateninB i<Factor =o;ld >e Fartiall@ >ased on lethalit@ and Fartl@ >ased on the Fro?ected cost of the Fh@sical da<aBe that =o;ld >e done >@ the i<Fact co<Fared to the cost of taLinB actions to divert the >od@ and avoid an i<Fact . *he <ean ti<e >et=een s;ch i<Facts is tho;sands of @earsC and the li<e to find and cataloB these >odies is decades. *he Fro>a>ilit@ that =e =ill discover an o>?ect of this siAe on a collision co;rse less than a @ear >efore it is d;e to striLe !arth is a>o;t 0.01X. *here is onl@ a %X chance that the threateninB >od@ =ill >e discovered less than t=o h;ndred @ears >efore its i<Fact. *he <ost liLel@ res;lt is that the <ost threateninB o>?ect discovered =ill not collide =ith ;s for several tho;sand @ears after its discover@ . *his Bives ;s <ore than a<Fle ti<e to learn all =e need to Lno= a>o;t the >od@C and to develoF the <ost aFFroFriate technoloB@ and hard=are to deal =ith it.

Asteroids Aff 4'/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

)"!"#A( D"F("$* +! *"$H S+(,"!$%

!ASA sho04d de2onstrate def4ection techno4og:this is ke: to 4ead an effecti5e internationa4 res6onse !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

*o FreFare an adeP;ate resFonse to the ranBe of Fotential i<Fact scenariosC NASA sho;ld cond;ct a foc;sed ranBe of activitiesC fro< in-sFace testinB of innovative N!' deflection technoloBies to FrovidinB assistance to those aBencies resFonsi>le for civil defense and disaster resFonse <eas;res. 4.1. Disaster "esFonse. NASA sho;ld =orL =ith the

DeFart<ent of o<eland Sec;rit@ :D SJ and other relevant 4.S. Bovern<ent aBencies to assiBn roles and for<;late Flans for civil defenseC s;ch as evac;ation of threatened areasC sho;ld N!' deflection Frove i<Fractical. *he disaster <anaBe<ent and resFonse co<<;nit@ sho;ld Flan for the <ost liLel@ i<Fact scenario7 a s<all :tens of <eters in siAeJ N!' striLinB =ith onl@ da@s or =eeLs of =arninB. A transFarentC effectiveC credi>le F;>lic co<<;nication Flan is a hiBh Friorit@C to incl;de toFics s;ch as the Fossi>le i<Fact areaC Fh@sical effectsC and i<Froved Fro>a>ilit@ esti<ates as o>servations i<Frove. *he disaster <anaBe<ent and resFonse co<<;nit@ has not eKtensivel@ dealt =ith the threat of N!' i<FactsC nor is NASA =ell-versed in the Frocesses or needs of the civil defense co<<;nit@. NASA and the D S sho;ld coordinate their <;t;al infor<ation needs for a N!' i<Fact resFonse as soon as Fossi>le. 4.% Deflection "esearch ProBra<. In Farallel =ith i<Fact disaster resFonse FlanninBC

NASA sho;ld Ferfor< the necessar@ research and develoF<ent to Ferfor< an in-sFace test of a deflection ca<FaiBnC =ith the Boal of <odif@inBC in a controlled <annerC the tra?ector@ of a N!'. S;ch a de<onstration FroBra< sho;ld incl;de >oth a Fo=erf;l i<F;lse techniP;e :e.B. Linetic i<FactJ and a Brad;alC Frecise :e.B. Bravit@ tractorJ deflection caFa>ilit@. 1$ With s;fficient =arninBC eKistinB technoloBies are liLel@ adeP;ate for N!' deflection >;t it is critical for >oth F;>lic and Bovern<ent confidence to Fh@sicall@ de<onstrate the< Frior to e<Flo@<ent in an i<Fact threat scenario .
*he !;roFean SFace ABenc@C ";ssian 5ederal SFace ABenc@C and others have eKa<ined and are FlanninB N!' deflection <issionsC and NASA sho;ld aBBressivel@ F;rs;e a cooFerative deflection caFa>ilit@ de<onstration. 4.3. !KFlosive *echnoloBies. Altho;Bh

n;clear eKFlosives are considered a rarel@ needed and last-resort deflection oFtionC it is Fr;dent that NASA sho;ld colla>orate =ith the DeFart<ent of !nerB@ and DeFart<ent of Defense to develoF an anal@tic research FroBra< to eKFlore the aFFlica>ilit@C ;tiliAationC and desiBn of n;clear eKFlosion technoloB@ for N!' deflection. If a larBe N!' deflection de<ands a total i<F;lse Breater than that delivera>le via <;ltiFle Linetic i<FactorsC then detonation of a n;clear device in standoff or other <ode <a@ >e necessar@ to avert an !arth i<Fact. 4ntil non-n;clear techniP;es of co<Fara>le caFa>ilit@ are FrovenC NASA sho;ld colla>orate in n;clear deflection techniP;e anal@sis and si<;lation . 4.47 Deflection Ph@sics. NASA sho;ld initiate >oth anal@tic and e<Firical FroBra<s to reasona>l@ >o;nd the D<o<ent;< <;ltiFlierE :ter<ed D\EJ in Linetic i<Fact deflection . \ is the Le@ varia>le in deter<ininB Linetic i<Fact deflection Ferfor<ance. *he <o<ent;< <;ltiFlier descri>es the eKtent to =hich the <o<ent;< of e?ecta >lasted clear >@ the i<Fact a;B<ents the <o<ent;< transferred directl@ to the N!' >@ the inco<inB Fro?ectile. *his Fara<eter is ;nliLel@ to >e Lno=n Frecisel@ >efore an act;al deflectionC and c;rrent esti<ates var@ >@ factors of fiveC tenC or <ore. *he s;ccess of >oth <ission FlanninB and assess<ents of deflection feasi>ilit@ deFends stronBl@ on >o;ndinB the val;e of \ >@ anal@tic and e<Firical <eans. "esearch sho;ld incl;de co<F;ter h@drocode i<Fact si<;lationsC la>orator@ Bas B;n testsC and other
I<Fact Scenarios. NASA

aFFroFriate eKFeri<ents ai<ed at >etter ;nderstandinB the <o<ent;< transferred to a tarBet >@ a Linetic i<Factor. *he sensitivit@ of the <o<ent;< enhance<ent factor :\J to the tarBet8s co<Fosition and str;ct;re sho;ld >e eKa<inedC alonB =ith the scalinB eKFressions aFFroFriate for i<Facts at varied velocities and enco;nter Beo<etries. 4.5.

sho;ld develoF a reference set of a fe= i<Fact threat scenarios and a corresFondinB set of deflection ca<FaiBn desiBn reference <issions. *hese reference deflection scenarios sho;ld >e shared nationall@ and internationall@C for<inB the >asis for f;t;re i<Fact Ba<inB eKercises. S;ch i<Fact threat and resFonse scenarios sho;ld reinforce the conceFt that <an@ N!' deflections =ill res;lt in near-<isses occ;rrinB Feriodicall@ in f;t;re @ears on nearl@ the sa<e calendar da@C >eca;se the N!' and !arth or>its nearl@ intersect at that Foint. At each close1+ aFFroachC !arthQs Bravit@ =ill deflect the N!' into a ne= or>it that =ill aBain enco;nter the !arthQs or>it and Fossi>l@ a n;<>er of near>@ RLe@holesR :s<all reBions in sFace near !arth thro;Bh =hich a FassinB N!' <a@ >e Bravitationall@ redirected onto a Fath to i<Fact !arthJ. *o Frecl;de s;ch a f;t;re Le@hole FassaBe and s;>seP;ent !arth collisionC each deflected N!' =ill need Feriodic <onitorinB to deter<ine if so<e or>ital finet;ninB is reP;ired.

Asteroids Aff 47/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

W" $A! D"F("$* !+W

$0rrent techno4og: can def4ect asteroids con5entiona44: and effecti5e4: $H+$#+! A!D WA(B"# 2008 :SC T.D.C DNear-!arth o>?ect deflection ;sinB conventional eKFlosivesE C International To;rnal of I<Fact !nBineerinB
2ol. 35C Iss;e 1%C Dece<>erJ&&D*

D;e to the larBe n;<>er and distri>;tion of asteroids and co<ets in the solar s@ste<C there is the distinct Fossi>ilit@ of one of the< striLinB !arth ?;st as co<et Shoe<aLer-)ev@ - str;cL T;Fiter. A de>ate is onBoinB in the scientific co<<;nit@ as to ho= >est to divert s;ch a threat . In %005 NASA =as directed >@ ConBress to Frovide a reFort on the detection of near-!arth o>?ects :N!'sJ and their <itiBation if deter<ined to >e a threat. *he reFort =as delivered in /arch %00+M as inF;t to that reFort C the =orL reForted here Frovided infor<ation on conventional <ethods to divert a Fotentiall@ haAardo;s o>?ect :P 'J incl;dinB conventional eKFlosives and direct i<Fact =ith a rocLet. 'ther slo= F;sh conventional aFFroaches incl;de FroF;lsion s@ste<s attached to the asteroid or co<et and the recentl@ FroFosed Bravitational tractor . AdvantaBes of conventional eKFlosives are that the@ can >e delivered in s<all FacLaBes so that the asteroid or co<et is in no danBer of >einB >roLen ;F and it is Fossi>le to acc;ratel@ co<F;te the <o<ent;< transferred to the asteroid or co<et thro;Bh <odern validated n;<erical techniP;es. *his =orL de<onstrates that conventional eKFlosives can >e an efficient conventional <ethod to divert an asteroid or co<et and co<F;tes the a<o;nts of eKFlosives needed. Def4ection is eas:s2a44 orbita4 corrections are eno0gh (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J We <iBht i<aBine BivinB the asteroid a s<all side=a@s n;dBe so thatC =hen it reaches !arthC it =ill sLi< >@ to one side of the Flanet rather than striLe it direcl@. We <iBht alternativel@ i<aBine acceleratinB or deceleratinB the asteroid alonB its direction of or>ital <otion so as to chanBe its or>ital Feriod sliBhtl@. *his =o;ld ca;se the asteroid to cross !ardiQs or>it a tde ahead of or >ehind the i<Fact sched;le that it =as follo=inB C and hence cross !arthQs or>it at a Foint ahead of or >ehind !arth. *he Fro>a>ilit@ that =e =ill have at least a cent;r@ of advance =arninB is 0.--C and the Fro>a>ilit@ =e =ill have at least t=o h;ndred @ears of =arninB is 0.-,7 let ;s s;FFose =e have t=o h;ndred @ears to =orL =ith. !arthQs or>ital velocit@ of 30 Lilo<eters Fer second <oves ;s alonB at a Frett@ Bood cliF7 !arth travels its o=n dia<eter :1%C+00 Lilo<etersJ in ?;st + <in;tes. If the i<Factor =as initiall@ ai<ed dead center at !arth :the =orst Fossi>le caseJC an@ deflection that chanBes the asteroidQs ti<e of crossinB of !arthQs or>it >@ <ore than 3.5 <in;tes :%10 secondsJ B;arantees a <iss. Since a t@Fical near-!arth asteroid has an or>ital Feriod of a>o;t fo;r @earsC =e Fredict the i<Fact a>o;t fift@ asteroid-@ears >efore its occ;rrence. If =e can chanBe the or>ital Feriod of the asteroid >@ onl@ 4.% seconds :o;t of fo;r @earsJC the ti<inB of the i<Fact =ill >e dist;r>ed >@ %10 seconds and no i<Fact =ill occ;r. *his is a fractional chanBe in the or>ital Feriod of 4.% seconds o;t of 1%$ <illion secondsC a velocit@ chanBe of a <ere one Fart in 30 <illion. *lie <ean or>ital velocit@ of the asteroid is a>o;t 1, Lilo<eters :1., <illion centi<etersJ Fer secondC so the velocit@ chanBe =e need to Frod;ce to ?;st >arel@ avoid a collision is onl@ 0.0$ centi<eters Fer secondZ In realit@C =e =o;ld =ant a decent safet@ <arBinC =hich =o;ld Fro>a>l@ lead ;s to desiBn the interceFtor s@ste< to >e
a>le to divert die >od@ >@ at least t=ice this a<o;nt. S;ch a s<all velocit@ chanBe is still =ell >elo= the escaFe velocit@ of the asteroidC and cannot disr;Ft it into several h;Be FiecesC even if the velocit@ chanBe =ere carried o;t instantaneo;sl@.

Asteroids Aff 48/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

$A9S S+(,"!$%
$A9S so45es J detects s2a44 asteroids and co2ets and 4eads to ne8 def4ection ca6abi4ities MaAanek 2002 - NASA )anBle@ "esearch Center :'cto>er %4C D.D.C D Co<et&Asteroid Protection S@ste< :CaFsJ7 a SFace-(ased S@ste< ConceFt for
"evol;tioniAinB !arth Protection and 4tiliAation of Near-!arth '>?ects. E NASA WorLshoF on Scientific "eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of httF7&&===.noao.ed;&<eetinBs&<itiBation&<edia&arlinBton.eKtended.Fdf FB. +1 J
*his

aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC

Foster Fresentation Frovides an overvie= of the Co<et&Asteroid Protection S@ste< :CAPSJ - a f;t;re sFace->ased s@ste< conceFt that Frovides inteBrated detection and Frotection thro;Bh Fer<anentC contin;o;s N!' <onitorinBC and raFidC controlled <odification of the or>ital tra?ectories of selected co<ets and asteroids. *he Boal of CAPS is to deter<ine =hether it is Fossi>le to identif@ a DsinBleE or>itinB or l;nar >ased s@ste< conceFt to defend aBainst the entire ranBe of threateninB o>?ectsC =ith the a>ilit@ to Frotect aBainst 1 L< class lonB-Feriod co<ets :incl;dinB inactive n;cleiJ as the initial foc;s. CAPS =o;ld Frovide a hiBh Fro>a>ilit@ that these o>?ects are detected and their or>its acc;ratel@ characteriAed =ith siBnificant =arninB ti<eC even ;Fon their first o>served near-!arth aFFroach. *he aFFroach >einB eKFlored for CAPS is to deter<ine if a s@ste< caFa>le of FrotectinB aBainst lonB-Feriod co<etsC Flaced FroFerl@ in heliocentric sFaceC =o;ld also >e caFa>le of FrotectinB aBainst s<aller asteroids and co<ets caFa>le of reBional destr;ction. *he >aseline detection conceFt advocates the ;se of larBe aFert;re :] 3 <etersJC hiBh-resol;tion telescoFes caFa>le of i<aBinB in the ;ltravioletC SFectral i<aBinB =o;ld >e i<Fle<ented as earl@ as Fossi>le in the detection Frocess. Advanced detectors caFa>le of raFid identification of N!'s and their sFectral siBnal co;ld Breatl@ si<Flif@ oFerations and <ini<iAe the reP;ire<ents on the tracLinB telescoFes. If N!'s co;ld >e ;niP;el@ identified in <;ltiFle s;rve@ i<aBesC a Freli<inar@ or>it co;ld >e deter<ined =ith <ini<al risL of DlosinBE the o>?ect. *he
the tracLinB telescoFes havinB a 0.1 ^ 0.1 deB. 5'2. tracLinB telescoFes =o;ld >e ;sed in an interfero<etric <ode =hen hiBher Frecision astro<etric o>servations are needed to confir< an o>?ect has an i<FactinB tra?ector@. 5inall@C active laser ranBinB co;ld >e ;sed to Frovide ranBe and ranBe-rate data to a;B<ent Frecision or>it deter<ination. Active laser ranBinB is Frefera>le to radar s@ste<s d;e to the Fotentiall@ larBe distances >et=een the tarBet and the detection s@ste<.

oFticalC and infrared =avelenBths. Coordinated telescoFe control for N!' s;rve@inB and tracLinB =o;ld >e incorForated to <aKi<iAe follo=-;F o>servationsC and >afflinB and&or shadinB =o;ld >e e<Flo@ed to Fer<it o>servations close to the S;n. !ach telescoFe =o;ld have larBe area <osaic detector arra@s :aFFroKi<atel@ 3$0 ^ 3$0 FiKelsJC =ith the s;rve@ telescoFes havinB a 1.0 ^ 1.0 deB. 5'2 and

*he tracLinB telescoFes co;ld >e ;sed as receivers for the laser ranBinB s@ste<C or the ret;rn siBnal of faint N!'s co;ld >e enhanced thro;Bh active ill;<ination to aid in interfero<etr@ <eas;re<ents. *he
*he s@ste<

Fri<ar@ or>it <odification aFFroach ;ses a sFacecraft that co<>ines a <;lti-<eBa=att Fo=er s@ste<C hiBh thr;st and sFecific i<F;lse FroF;lsion s@ste< for raFid rendeAvo;sC and a F;lsed laser a>lation Fa@load for chanBinB the tarBet8s or>it. *his co<>ination of technoloBies <a@ offer a f;t;re or>it <odification s@ste< that co;ld deflect i<Factors of vario;s co<Fositions =itho;t landinB on the o>?ect.

co;ld also Frovide an effective <ethod for alterinB the or>its of N!'s for reso;rce ;tiliAationC as =ell as the Fossi>ilit@ of <odif@inB the or>its of s<aller asteroids for i<Fact defense. It is liLel@ that an@ N!' defense s@ste< =o;ld allo= for <;ltiFle deflection <ethods. Altho;Bh laser a>lation is FroFosed as the Fri<ar@ or>it <odification techniP;eC alternate <ethodsC s;ch as stand-off n;clear detonationC co;ld also >e Fart of the sa<e defensive scenario ;sinB >oth rendeAvo;s and interceFt tra?ectories . Advanced technoloBies and innovation in <an@ areas are critical in adeP;atel@ addressinB the entire i<Fact threat. iBhl@ advanced detectors that have the a>ilit@ to Frovide the enerB@ and ti<e of arrival of each Fhoton co;ld reFlace c;rrent se<icond;ctor detectors in <;ch the sa<e =a@ as the@ reFlaced FhotoBraFhic Flates . It is also i<Fortant to identif@ s@nerBistic technoloBies that can >e aFFlied
across a =ide ranBe of f;t;re sFace <issions. 5or eKa<FleC technoloBies Fer<ittinB h;<ans to traverse the solar s@ste< raFidl@ co;ld >e hiBhl@ co<Fati>le =ith the raFid rendeAvo;s or interceFtion of an i<Factor. )iLe=iseC laser Fo=er >ea<inB :visi>leC <icro=aveC etc.J <a@ >e aFFlica>le for sFace->ased enerB@ transfer for re<ote Fo=er aFFlicationsC as =ell as N!' or>it <odification.

*he vision for CAPS is Fri<aril@ to Frovide Flanetar@ defenseC >;t also Frovide Frod;ctive scienceC reso;rce ;tiliAation and technoloB@ develoF<ent =hen the s@ste< is not needed for the infreP;ent diversion of i<FactinB co<ets and asteroids. *he vis ion is for a f;t;re =here asteroids and co<etar@ >odies are ro;tinel@ <oved to FrocessinB facilitiesC =ith a Fer<anent infrastr;ct;re that is caFa>le and FreFared to divert those o>?ects that are a haAard. *here is tre<endo;s >enefit in DFracticinBE ho= to <ove these o>?ects fro< a threat <itiBation standFoint. DeveloFinB the caFa>ilit@ to alter the or>its of co<ets and asteroids ro;tinel@ for non-defensive F;rFoses co;ld Breatl@ increase the Fro>a>ilit@ that =e can s;ccessf;ll@ divert a f;t;re i<FactorC and <aLe the s@ste< econo<icall@ via>le. It is liLel@ that the neKt o>?ect to i<Fact the !arth =ill >e a s<all near-!arth asteroid or co<et. Additionall@C a g4oba44: de5astating i26act 8ith a 1 k2 c4ass 4ong6eriod co2et 8i44 not be kno8n decades@ or e5en :ears@ in ad5ance 8ith o0r c0rrent detection efforts& SearchinB forC and FrotectinB o;rselves aBainst these t@Fes of i<Factors is a =orth=hile endeavor. C;rrent terrestrial>ased efforts sho;ld >e eKFanded and a coordinated sFace->ased s@ste< sho;ld >e defined and i<Fle<ented . CAPS is an atte<Ft to >eBin the definition of that f;t;re sFace->ased s@ste<C and identif@ the technoloB@ develoF<ent areas that are needed to ena>le its i<Fle<entatio n. 5inall@C it is f;ll@ aFFreciated that at the Fresent ti<e sFace s@ste<s are <;ch <ore costl@ than terrestrial>ased s@ste<s. oFef;ll@C this =ill chanBe in the f;t;re. "eBardlessC ;nderstandinB =hat it =o;ld taLe to defend aBainst a <;ch =ider ranBe of the i<Fact threat =ill foster ideasC innovationsC and technoloBies that co;ld one da@ ena>le the develoF<ent of s;ch a s@ste<. *his ;nderstandinB is vital to Frovide =a@s of red;cinB the costs and P;antif@inB the >enefits that are achieva>le =ith a s@ste< liLe CAPS.

Asteroids Aff 4?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

S+(A# D"F("$* +! S+(,"!$%

So4ar e5a6oration so45es !"+ def4ection Safaeini4i and +stro 2002 - Tet ProF;lsion )a>orator@C California Instit;te of *echnoloB@ :'cto>er %4C Ali and Steven T.C D I<aBinB the Interiors of Near!arth '>?ects =ith "adio "eflection *o<oBraFh@ E NASA WorLshoF on Scientific "eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of httF7&&===.noao.ed;&<eetinBs&<itiBation&<edia&arlinBton.eKtended.Fdf FB. ,$J Introd;ction7 In <@ revie= of vario;s aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC

non-n;clear techniP;es that <iBht >e ;sed to deflect a N!' on a collision co;rse =ith !arthC the <ost Fro<isinB <ethod is one that. =as st;died >@ .T. /elosh et al * . *his <ethod ;ses a solar collector to foc;s the S;n8s ra@s on the N!'8s s;rface =here evaForation of the s;rface ca;sed >@ heat creates a thr;st =hich <odifies the N!'8s tra?ector@ over a Feriod of ti<e. S;ch a techniP;e has a h;Be advantaBe >eca;se it neither reP;ires sta>iliAinB the N!' nor landinB on it. As the N!' rotates ;nder the ill;<inated sFotC fresh <aterial is >ro;Bht into the heated area so evaForation is contin;o;s. 5;rther<ore it does notC for the <ost FartC deFend on the co<Fosition of the N!'. It can evaForate ston@ or ic@ >odies >;t Fro>a>l@ not iron N!'s. 5ort;natel@ these are rare. *he stead@ F;sh Benerated >@ solar evaForation <ini<iAes the danBer of disr;FtinB the N!' in contrast to an i<F;lse. *here are P;ite a fe= technical h;rdles to overco<e in <at;rinB this techniP;eC >;t none see< i<Fro>a>le or an@<ore diffic;lt than other <ethods.

Asteroids Aff ;0/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!>B" D"F("$* +! S+(,"S

!0c4ear e764osions 8ork (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J
s<all n;clear =arhead =ell clear of the s;rface of the asteroidC FerhaFs t=o asteroid radii fro< the s;rface. (;t si<Fl@

*here are <an@ <ethods availa>le for <aLinB s;ch s<all chanBes in the velocit@ of an asteroid. 'ne of the favorite techniP;es FroFosed >@ <ilitar@ eKFerts is to eKFlode a

la;nchinB an eKistinB IC(/ at the asteroid =o;ld not =orL7 s;ch vehicles cannot achieve escaFe velocit@ to reach an asteroid on its or>it aro;nd the S;n. 5;rtherC <issile B;idance s@ste<s are desiBned to oFerate for the half-ho;r of an intercontinental triFC not the =eeLs or <onths reP;ired for the triF to an asteroid. *he <ission =o;ld have to >e acco<Flished >@ a <ilitar@ =arhead co<>ined =ith a NASA Flanetar@ sFacecraft >;s that Frovides B;idance and Fo=er. *he sFacecraft need not >e <assiveM the n;clear eKFlosive =eiBhs in at onl@ a>o;t 100 LiloBra<sC of =hich onl@ a>o;t $ LB of >o<> vaFor striLes the asteroid. *he shocL =ave fro< the >last is co<Fletel@ neBliBi>leC >;t the enor<o;s ther<al enerB@ of the eKFlosion heats a thin s;rface la@er over the entire face of the asteroid visi>le to the =arhead to hiBh eno;Bh te<Ferat;res to vaForiAe that s;rface la@er. *he vaFor deFarts at a>o;t 4 Lilo<eters Fer secondC i<FartinB a >rief i<F;lse to the asteroid. (@ the nat;re of this techniP;eC the force it i<Farts to the asteroid is ver@ evenl@ distri>;ted. S;FFosinB that a la@er 0.03 c< thicL =ith a densit@ of 3 Bra<s Fer c;>ic centi<eter is vaForiAed and deFarts at 4 Lin&sC the recoil <o<ent;< i<Farted to the asteroid is s;fficient to chanBe the asteroidQs velocit@ >@ 10 centi<eters Fer second. *he fift@ <etric tons of s;rface <aterial re<oved is <ore than adeP;ate to deflect the %0 <illion <etric tons of asteroid >@ the s<all a<o;nt reP;ired to ass;re a Benero;s safet@ <arBin =hen it flies >@ 0arth. *he eKFlosion of a n;clear =arhead =ith a @ield of tens of Liloions in sFace far fro< !arth B;arantees that a t=o-BiBaton eKFlosion does not taLe Flace on !arth. *he eKFense of the hard=are and <ission oFerations sho;ld >e aro;nd S%00 <illion :FerhaFs as <;ch as S1 >illion if onl@ one s;ch device =ere >;ilt and no Frod;ction-line efficiencies co;ld >e realiAed J. "eaders concerned a>o;t the environ<ental i<Fact of s;ch an eKFlosion sho;ld realiAe that the asteroid =o;ld not >e conta<inated to an@ siBnificant deBree >@ radioactive >o<> de>risC since the s;rface la@er =o;ld >e >oiled off >@ the >last. *he >o<> vaFor =o;ld >e s=eFt o;t of the solar s@ste< >@ the solar =ind at a sFeed of a>o;t siK h;ndred Lilo<eters Fer second. A <onth after the eKFlosion the =eaFon de>ris =o;ld >e 11 A4 fro< the S;n C >e@ond the or>it of Sat;rnC and so dil;ted >@ the solar =ind that it =o;ld >e virt;all@ indetecta>le. *he one Bra< of <atter converted to enerB@ >@ the n;clear eKFlosion =o;ld P;icLl@ Bet lost a<id the 4 <illion <etric tons of liBht Biven off each second >@ the S; n. *he net res;lt of the asteroid deflection is reall@ a t=ofold >enefit to !arth7 a devastatinB i<Fact =o;ld >e avoidedC and there =o;ld >e one less n;clear =arhead on !arth. !0c4ear 8ea6ons are co26arati5e4: the best strateg: !ASA #e6ort to $ongress 7 :/archC DNear-!arth '>?ect S;rve@ and Deflection Anal@sis of AlternativesEC
httF7&&neo.?Fl.nasa.Bov&neo&reFort%00+.ht<lJ&&D*

*he st;d@ tea< assessed a series of aFFroaches that co;ld >e ;sed to divert a N!' Fotentiall@ on a collision co;rse =ith !arth. N;clear eKFlosivesC as =ell as non-n;clear oFtionsC =ere assessed . N;clear standoff eKFlosions are assessed to >e 10-100 ti<es <ore effective than the non-n;clear alternatives anal@Aed in this st;d@. 'ther techniP;es involvinB the s;rface or s;>s;rface ;se of n;clear eKFlosives <a@ >e <ore efficientC >;t the@ r;n an increased risL of fract;rinB the tarBet N!'. *he@ also carr@ hiBher develoF<ent and oFerations risLs. Non-n;clear Linetic i<Factors are the <ost <at;re aFFroach and co;ld >e ;sed in so<e deflection&<itiBation scenariosC esFeciall@ for N!'s that consist of a sinBle s<allC solid >od@. RSlo= F;shR <itiBation techniP;es are the <ost eKFensiveC have the lo=est level of technical readinessC and their a>ilit@ to >oth travel to and divert a threateninB N!' =o;ld >e li<ited ;nless <ission d;rations of <an@ @ears to decades are Fossi>le. 30-,0 Fercent of Fotentiall@ haAardo;s N!'s are in or>its that are >e@ond the caFa>ilit@ of c;rrent or Flanned la;nch s@ste<s. *hereforeC Flanetar@ Bravit@ assist s=inB >@ tra?ectories or on-or>it asse<>l@ of <od;lar FroF;lsion s@ste<s <a@ >e needed to a;B<ent la;nch vehicle Ferfor<anceC if these o>?ects need to >e deflected.

Asteroids Aff ;1/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

S+(,"S A$$ D"!*S

Detection is ke: to so45e accidenta4 8ar fro2 s2a44 asteroids 9A#B et a4& 1??4 W President of the A<erican Ph@sical Societ@C PhD :"ichard ).C )ori (. 1arver of the National SFace Societ@ and *err@ Da=son of the 4S
of "eFresentativesC D*he )esson of 1rand 5orLs7 Can a Defense aBainst Asteroids >e S;stainedGE *he e<Fhasis o;se

aAards D;e to Co<ets and Asteroids ed. *o< 1herelsC FB. 1%%5-1%%,J

has FroFerl@ >een on i<Facts that =o;ld >e eKFected to have Blo>al conseP;ences. !ven for o>?ects too s<all to Frod;ce <ore than local effectsC ho=everC it has >een Fointed o;t that an i<Fact <iBht >e <isidentified as a n;clear eKFlosion :Canavan and Sole< 1--3J. /isidentification =o;ld >e <ost liLel@ a<onB nations that have recentl@ ?oined the ranLs of Rn;clear Fo=ersR and =o;ld therefore >e eKFected to have less soFhisticated <eans of verification. It is <ore than a h@Fothetical concern. We recall that the 1-+, So;th Indian 'cean ano<al@C detected >@ a 2ela satelliteC =as s;sFected at the ti<e of >einB a So;th African-Israeli n;clear test. In sFite of the fail;re to find an@ confir<inB evidence fro< intelliBence so;rces or at<osFheric <onitorinBC it created international tensions that lasted for @ears . At the ti<eC there =ere s;BBestions that it <iBht have >een an artifact
fro< an asteroid i<Fact in the at<osFhere. A

Frod;ced >@ a <icro<eteorite i<Fact on the 2ela satellite itselfC >;t little serio;s consideration see<s to have >een Biven to the idea that the satellite had o>served the fire>all

1--0 satellite o>servation of an aFFarent asteroid i<Fact fire>all over the Western Pacific has >een descri>ed >@ "e@nolds :1--3J. *he danBer of <isidentificationC =hich Bro=s as =eaFons Froliferate a<onB less soFhisticated nationsC is <eliorated in Fart >@ F;>liciAinB the Fossi>ilit@. *he onl@ s;re <eans of avoidinB an ;nfort;nate resFonseC ho=everC =o;ld >e for ever@one to Lno= the i<Fact is co<inB & Which again 64aces the e26hasis on detection&

Asteroids Aff ;2/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A#"$ E+/)+(DS*+!" S+(,"!$%

F0nding 6rogra2s at Arecibo and )o4dstone 8o04d a44o8 greater asteroid detection !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J 5indinB7 "adar cannot >e ;sed to discover N!'sC >;t it is

a Fo=erf;l tool for raFidl@ i<FrovinB the Lno=ledBe of the or>it of a ne=l@ fo;nd o>?ect and th;s characteriAinB its Fotential haAard to !arth. 5indinB7 *he Areci>o and 1oldstone radar s@ste<s Fla@ a ;niP;e role in the characteriAation of N!'sC FrovidinB ;n<atched acc;rac@ in or>it deter<ination and offerinB insiBht into siAeC shaFeC s;rface str;ct;reC and other FroFerties for o>?ects =ithin their latit;de coveraBe and detection ranBe. 5indinB7 ConBress has directed NASA to ens;re that Areci>o is availa>le for radar o>servations >;t has not aFFroFriated f;nds for this =orL. "eco<<endation7 I<<ediate action is reP;ired to ens;re the contin;ed oFeration of the Areci>o '>servator@ at a level s;fficient to <aintain and staff the radar facilit@. Additionall@C NASA and the National Science 5o;ndation sho;ld s;FFort a viBoro;s FroBra< of radar o>servations of N!'s at Areci>oC and NASA sho;ld s;FFort s;ch a FroBra< at 1oldstone for or>it deter<ination and the characteriAation of Fh@sical FroFerties.

Asteroids Aff ;-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A#"$ E+ 9(>S )+(DS*+!" S+(,"!$%

F0nding for )o4dstone and Arecibo is ke: to 6re5ent asteroid co44ision !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

'>taininB the or>its and the Fh@sical FroFerties of N!'s is Lno=n as characteriAation and is Fri<aril@ needed to infor< FlanninB for an@ active defense of !arth. S;ch defense =o;ld >e carried o;t thro;Bh a s;ita>le attacL on an@ o>?ect Fredicted =ith near certaint@ to other=ise collide =ith !arth and ca;se siBnificant da<aBe. *he aFFarentl@ h;Be variation in the Fh@sical FroFerties of N!'s see<s to render infeasi>le the develoF<ent of a co<Frehensive inventor@ thro;Bh in sit; investiBations >@ s;ita>l@ instr;<ented sFacecraft7 the costs =o;ld >e tr;l@ astrono<ical. A sFacecraft reconnaissance <ission <iBht <aLe Bood sense to cond;ct on an o>?ect thatC =itho;t h;<an interventionC =o;ld hit !arth =ith near certaint@. S;ch a <ission =o;ld >e feasi>le Frovided there =as s;fficient =arninB ti<e for the res;lts to s;ita>l@ infor< the develoF<ent of an attacL <ission to ca;se the o>?ect to <iss collidinB =ith !arth. In addition to sFacecraft reconnaissance <issions as neededC the co<<ittee concl;ded that viBoro;sC Bro;nd>ased characteriAation at <odest cost is i<Fortant for the N!' tasL. /odest f;ndinB co;ld s;FFort oFtical o>servations of alread@-Lno=n and ne=l@ discovered asteroids and co<ets to o>tain so<e t@Fes of infor<ation on this >road ranBe of o>?ects C s;ch as their reflectivit@ as a f;nction of colorC to helF infer their s;rface FroFerties and <ineraloB@C and their rotation FroFerties. In additionC the co<Fle<entar@ radar s@ste<s at the Areci>o '>servator@ in P;erto "ico and the 1oldstone Solar S@ste< "adar in California are Fo=erf;l facilities for characteriAation =ithin their reach in the solar s@ste< C a <aKi<;< of a>o;t one-tenth of the !arth-S;n distance. Areci>o_=hich has a <aKi<;< sensitivit@ a>o;t %0-fold hiBher than 1oldstone8s >;t does not have nearl@ as Bood sL@ coveraBe as 1oldstone_canC for eKa<FleC <odel the three-di<ensional shaFes of :Benerall@ ver@ odd-shaFedJ asteroids and esti<ate their s;rface characteristicsC as =ell as deter<ine =hether an asteroid has a :s<allerJ satellite or satellites aro;nd itC all i<Fortant to Lno= for FlanninB active defense . AlsoC fro< a fe= relativel@ closel@ sFaced :in ti<eJ o>servationsC radar can acc;ratel@ deter<ine the or>its of N!'sC =hich has the advantaBe of >einB a>le to cal< F;>lic fears P;icLl@ :or Fossi>l@C in so<e casesC to sho= that the@ are =arrantedJ. 5indinB7 *he Areci>o and 1oldstone radar s@ste<s Fla@ a ;niP;e role in the characteriAation of N!'sC FrovidinB ;n<atched acc;rac@ in or>it deter<ination and offerinB insiBht into siAeC shaFeC s;rface str;ct;reC and other FroFerties for o>?ects =ithin their latit;de coveraBe and detection ranBe. "eco<<endation7 I<<ediate action is reP;ired to ens;re the contin;ed oFeration of the Areci>o '>servator@ at a level s;fficient to <aintain and staff the radar facilit@. Additionall@C NASA and the National Science 5o;ndation sho;ld s;FFort a viBoro;s FroBra< of radar o>servations of N!'s at Areci>oC and NASA sho;ld s;FFort s;ch a FroBra< at 1oldstone for or>it deter<ination and the characteriAation of Fh@sical FroFerties. 5or >oth Areci>o and 1oldstoneC contin;ed f;ndinB is far fro< ass;redC not onl@ for the radar s@ste<s >;t for the entire facilities. *he incre<ental ann;al f;ndinB reP;ired to <aintain and oFerate the radar s@ste<sC even at their Fresent relativel@ lo= levels of oFerationC is a>o;t S% <illion at each facilit@ :see ChaFter 4J. *he ann;al f;ndinB for Areci>o is aFFroKi<atel@ S1% <illion. 1oldstone is one of the three deeF-sFace co<<;nications facilities of the DeeF SFace Net=orLC and its overall f;ndinB incl;des additional eP;iF<ent for sFace
co<<;nications.

Asteroids Aff ;4/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

E+*H B"%
Eoth )o4dstone and Arecibo are necessar:the: co264e2ent data gathering and 6rotect against e10i62ent fai40re at a sing4e site !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J (eca;se it is f;ll@ steera>leC 1oldstone

can tracL o>?ects siBnificantl@ farther north and so;th than can Areci>oC and for ;F to several ti<es lonBer Fer da@. )i<its on 1oldstone8s coveraBe are also i<Fosed >@ the reP;ire<ent that tarBets >e %0` a>ove the horiAon. 'FFort;nities Lno=n =ell in advance are sched;led <onths or even @ears ahead. o=everC the 1oldstone radar co<Fetes for telescoFe ti<e =ith n;<ero;s NASA sFacecraft <issions that have hiBher Friorit@ and that often li<it the ti<e availa>le for radar
o>servations. *he antenna is also availa>le for short-notice tarBet-of-oFFort;nit@ o>servations if the fliBht Fro?ects have s;fficient sched;linB fleKi>ilit@ to acco<<odate chanBesC and if radiation clearance can >e o>tained in ti<e fro< the n;<ero;s <ilitar@ and other Bovern<ent orBaniAations =hose airsFace s;rro;nds 1oldstone. N!' radar o>servations have >een sched;led in as fe= as % da@s after a reP;estC >;t recent

;rBent reP;ests have >een at least % =eeLs in advance. In BeneralC Areci>o has siBnificantl@ Breater fleKi>ilit@ for resFondinB to short-notice tarBet-of-oFFort;nit@ o>servinB reP;ests than 1oldstone has. "adar i<aBes o>tained at Areci>o and 1oldstone canC resFectivel@C no= achieve resol;tions as fine as +.5 <eters and 1- <eters Fer FiKel. '=inB to its Breater sensitivit@ and finer ranBe resol;tionC Areci>o Frovides siBnificantl@ <ore hiBh-resol;tion N!' i<aBinB oFFort;nities than does 1oldstone . A recent TP) internal st;d@ fo;nd thatC desFite its restricted FointinB caFa>ilitiesC Areci>o is caFa>le of o>servinB ;F to t=o-thirds of ne=l@ discovered Fotentiall@ haAardo;s near>@ N!'s >eca;se these near>@ o>?ects <ove so raFidl@ across the sL@ that <an@ Fass thro;Bh Areci>o8s latit;de D=indo=E >efore the@ eKceed detecta>le ranBe. *he corresFondinB fiB;re for 1oldstone :=hose detecta>le ranBe on a Biven o>?ect is a>o;t one-half of Areci>o8sJ is nearl@ the sa<e. Areci>o is a>le to detect 1% Fercent <ore of the larBer o>?ects :a>o;t +00 <eters in dia<eterJ than 1oldstone canC >;t 5 Fercent fe=er of the s<aller o>?ects :a>o;t +0 <eters
in dia<eterJ >eca;se of the s<aller Areci>o D=indo=E and shorter ti<es for o>servationC as noted a>ove. In FracticeC <ost N!'s are o>serva>le at >oth Areci>o and 1oldstoneC >;t for

the relativel@ s<all fraction that re<ain so;th of a1` or north of b3,`C 1oldstone is the onl@ radar caFa>le of o>servinB the<. "adar o>servations at the t=o telescoFes are often sched;led on different da@s :=ith those at 1oldstone often on dates =hen tarBets are too far so;th or north for Areci>oJC and =hich increases coveraBe of the different s;rface reBions of the N!'C =hich is ver@ i<Fortant for three-di<ensional shaFe deter<ination. *he caFa>ilities of Areci>o and 1oldstone are th;s co<Fle<entar@C and <an@ o>servinB ca<FaiBns have <ade ;se of their s@nerB@. Another Fri<ar@ advantaBe of havinB t=o radar facilities is that one can serve as a >acL;F for the other. /echanical Fro>le<s or other de<ands on the facilities :Fartic;larl@ the need to ;se 1oldstone to co<<;nicate =ith NASA sFacecraftJ <ean that >oth facilities are rarel@ availa>le si<;ltaneo;sl@ . "10i62ent fai40re is 4ike4: !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect

4ntil recentl@C Areci>o has Froven a <ore deFenda>le radar facilit@ than 1oldstone >eca;se of fe=er eP;iF<ent Fro>le<s interferinB =ith sched;led o>servations. *hat sit;ation has recentl@ chanBedC larBel@ >eca;se of aBinB on-site Fri<ar@ Fo=er t;r>ine Benerators at Areci>o :co<<ercial Fo=er for the oFeration of eKtre<el@ hiBh Fo=er trans<itters there is not FracticalJ. (eca;se of t;r>ine deBradationC Areci>o has >een ;na>le to B;arantee its f;ll no<inal Fo=er o;tF;t of -00 Lilo=atts for several @earsM >@ the fall of %00, the t;r>ine Benerator had >eco<e FroBressivel@ less relia>leC forcinB a red;ction of Fo=er to aFFroKi<atel@ 500 to $00 Lilo=attsC and >@ the sFrinB of %00- to onl@ a>o;t $0 Lilo=attsC =hich ca;sed the cancellation of <an@ N!' radar o>servations. *he Bovern<ent of P;erto "ico has aFFroFriated <one@ for a ne=C <ore relia>le BeneratinB so;rce ;sinB diesel enBinesC >;t installation of this s@ste< is not eKFected to start ;ntil %010. 1oldstone has also eKFerienced siBnificant eP;iF<ent Fro>le<sC <ost nota>l@ =ith its trans<itterC =hich red;ced oFerations to half Fo=er for several <onths in late %00,C >;t has recentl@ res;<ed oFeratinB at its no<inal Fo=er of 430 Lilo=atts. 0eeFinB the aFFroKi<atel@ 45-@ear-old DSS-14 antenna oFeratinB is an increasinBl@ i<Fortant iss;e M
1oldstone is sched;led to Bo Doff-lineE for + <onths of <aintenance startinB d;rinB %010.

Asteroids Aff ;;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

Asteroids Aff ;'/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A#"$ E+ )++D
Arecibo is ke:fai40re to 2aintain it 2eans that def4ection 8i44 fai4 #+H#AEA$H"# 2007 W :DanaC ConBress<anC Nove<>er ,C Dr. 1reen received his Ph.D. in SFace Ph@sics fro< the 4niversit@ of Io=a in 1-+- and >eBan
=orLinB in the /aBnetosFheric Ph@sics (ranch at NASAQs /arshall SFace 5liBht Center :/S5CJ in 1-,0. At /arshallC Dr. 1reen develoFed and <anaBed the SFace Ph@sics Anal@sis Net=orLC =hich Frovided <an@ scientistsC all over the =orldC =ith raFid access to dataC other scientistsC and sFecific NASA co<F;ter and infor<ation reso;rces N!A"-!A"* '(T!C*S :N!'SJ-S*A*4S '5 * ! S4"2!# P"'1"A/ AND "!2I!W '5 NASAQS %00+ "!P'"* *' C'N1"!SSC httF7&&fr=e>Bate.access.BFo.Bov&cBi>in&Betdoc.cBiGd>na<eI110Hho;seHhearinBsUdocidIf73,05+.FdfJ&&D* /r. 0' "A(AC 0". Sh;ttinB

do=n Areci>o <eans that =e are intentionall@ F;ttinB o;rselves in a Fosition of iBnorance of Fotential threatsC and =ith that iBnorance <a@ co<e >liss for a =hile. o=everC let ;s note it also not onl@ Bives ;s iBnoranceC >;t it also Frevents ;s fro< havinB an@ chance of deflection if there is a threat. SoC =e are F;ttinB o;rselves in a Fosition of >einB iBnorant of a Fotential threatC and alsoC <aLinB o;rselves incaFa>le of resFondinB to the Fotential threat. And Areci>o is in the <iddle of this. No one sho;ld taLe ;s serio;sl@ a>o;t =atchinB o;t for the lonB-ter< interests if =e let this asset Bo. SoC I thanL @o; ver@ <;chC and I a< looLinB for=ard to =orLinB =ith @o;C

=orLinB =ith the "anLinB /e<>erC and =orLinB =ith the Chair<an. We need to =orL on thisC and sho= that =e can act;all@.if =e canQt Bet this doneC =e canQt Bet an@thinB done. I <eanC it is as si<Fle as that.

Arecibo is the 2ost 6o8erf04 radar arra: in the 8or4ditDs ke: to !"+ detection !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

*he Areci>o '>servator@C located near Areci>oC P;erto "icoC is Fart of the National Astrono<@ and IonosFhere Center :NAICJ oFerated >@ Cornell 4niversit@ ;nder contract =ith the National Science 5o;ndation :NS5J. Its chief feat;re is a fiKed 305-<eter-dia<eter sFherical antenna C of =hich %%5
<eters are ill;<inated >@ radar =aves in a =a@ that allo=s coveraBe =ithin %0` of directl@ overhead. D;e to its location 1,` north of the eP;atorC Areci>o can o>serve o>?ects >et=een latit;des of a1` and b3,`C and a>o;t 33 Fercent of the sL@ <a@ >e o>served >@ allo=inB !arth8s rotation to <ove the telescoFe to Foint to=ard the desired celestial tarBet. Areci>o can tracL an individ;al o>?ect for ;F to %.- ho;rs Fer da@. When co<>ined =ith its -00 Lilo=att :LWJ of averaBe trans<ittinB Fo=er of =aves =ith a lenBth of 13 centi<etersC this

s@ste< is >@ far the <ost sensitive research radar in the =orld _a>o;t %0 ti<es <ore sensitive than the 1oldstone Solar "adar S@ste< descri>ed >elo=C >;t at the cost of siBnificantl@ red;ced sL@ coveraBe. 5iB;res 4.1C 4.%C and 4.3 sho= eKa<Fles of the P;alit@ of i<aBer@ that can >e o>tained =ith Areci>o8s radar. *hese i<aBes contain tho;sands of FiKels coverinB the tarBet N!'M their hiBhest resol;tion Breatl@ eKceeds that availa>le fro< an@ oFtical telescoFe on the Bro;nd or in near-!arth sFace and is <atched onl@ >@ Dfl@>@E and eKceeded onl@ >@ rendeAvo;s sFacecraft <issions. (eca;se of its Breater sensitivit@C Areci>o Frovides siBnificantl@ <ore freP;ent oFFort;nities for hiBh-resol;tion i<aBinB than does 1oldstone. 'FFort;nities for radar i<aBinB =ith a cali>er co<Fara>le to those sho=n here occ;r several ti<es ann;all@. Within its latit;de coveraBeC Areci>o can detect o>?ects at t=ice the distance as can 1oldstone for si<ilarl@ siAed o>?ects and has contri>;ted t=o-thirds of all radar ranBe and radial velocit@ <eas;re<ents on N!'s o>tained in the last decade . Arecibo is ke: to asteroid detection F""!"% 2007 :"eFresentative *o< 5eene@C "anLinB /inorit@ /e<>erC S;>co<<ittee on SFace and Aerona;ticsC Co<<ittee on Science and *echnoloB@C 4.S.

o;se of "eFresentativesC Nove<>er , N!A"-!A"* '(T!C*S :N!'SJ-S*A*4S '5 * ! S4"2!# P"'1"A/ AND "!2I!W '5 NASAQS %00+ "!P'"* *' C'N1"!SSC httF7&&fr=e>Bate.access.BFo.Bov&cBi->in&Betdoc.cBiGd>na<eI110Hho;seHhearinBsUdocidIf73,05+.FdfJ&&D* /r. 5!!N!#. WellC thanL @o;C /r. Chair<anC and thanL @o; for @o;r testi<on@C ConBress<an. #o; Lno=C as I read thro;Bh the <aterials and the different NS5 and NASA Fro?ectionsC and disc;ssion of this i<Fortant iss;eC all of the< s;BBest that Areci>o is ver@ i<Fortant to o;r caFa>ilities.

An@ decision to close it do=n see<s to >e F;rel@ >;dBet-drivenC and so that I hoFeC as =e Bet the n;<>ers and the esti<ates for =hat it =o;ld costC and =hat the i<Fact =o;ld >e of sh;ttinB it do=nC that @o; =ill i<<ediatel@ Frovide this co<<itteeC and alsoC the Co<<ittee =ith ?;risdiction over NS5C =ith those n;<>ers. (eca;se if this is entirel@ cost-drivenC then =e need toC as =e are ;nderstandinB the advantaBes that ever@>od@ acLno=ledBesC =e also need to Lno= that theC of LeeFinB it oFenC that the disadvantaBes of closinB it also =ill have a siBnificant cost <an@C <an@ ti<es =hat it costs on an ann;al >asis to LeeF it alive. ';r neKt Fanel incl;des so<e ver@ distinB;ished =itnesses. 'ne of the<C for eKa<FleC /r. #eo<ansQ testi<on@ =ill tell ;s that Areci>o and 1oldstone co<Fle<ent one another and Frovide t=o ver@ different f;nctions. *hat is ver@ i<Fortant C >eca;se =hile the one telescoFe is caFa>le of identif@inB Near-!arth '>?ects that <a@ >e a threatC it is Areci>o that helFs ;s deter<ine the eKact threat to the !arth. And the fascinatinB thinB is that =e have the caFa>ilit@ =ith Areci>oC at least =ith the larBe o>?ects that =e have no= Fro-ceeded to cataloBC and =e are ver@ near o;r BoalC or at least =e are on tracL . /r. #eo<ans =ill testif@ that once =e find the vast <a?orit@ of the<C the@ can >e tracLedC cataloBedC and then r;led o;t or in as threats d;rinB the neKt 100 @ears or so. I thinL the FeoFle of the =orld =o;ld >e ver@ Bratef;l to Lno=C esFeciall@ =ith 100 @ears noticeC that there <a@ >e a catastroFheC driven >@ a Near-!arth '>?ect. (;t <ost i<Fortantl@C =e have the technoloBical caFa>ilities to act;all@ deflect or to eli<inate the da<aBe =ith that t@Fe of noticeC and aBain C /r. #eo<ans and o;r other =itnesses =ill testif@ to
that.

Asteroids Aff ;7/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A#"$ E+ )++D
Arecibo is ke:a4ternati5es 8o04d be 2ore e76ensi5e #+H#AEA$H"# 2007 W :DanaC ConBress<anC Nove<>er ,C Dr. 1reen received his Ph.D. in SFace Ph@sics fro< the 4niversit@ of Io=a in 1-+- and >eBan
=orLinB in the /aBnetosFheric Ph@sics (ranch at NASAQs /arshall SFace 5liBht Center :/S5CJ in 1-,0. At /arshallC Dr. 1reen develoFed and <anaBed the SFace Ph@sics Anal@sis Net=orLC =hich Frovided <an@ scientistsC all over the =orldC =ith raFid access to dataC other scientistsC and sFecific NASA co<F;ter and infor<ation reso;rces N!A"-!A"* '(T!C*S :N!'SJ-S*A*4S '5 * ! S4"2!# P"'1"A/ AND "!2I!W '5 NASAQS %00+ "!P'"* *' C'N1"!SSC httF7&&fr=e>Bate.access.BFo.Bov&cBi>in&Betdoc.cBiGd>na<eI110Hho;seHhearinBsUdocidIf73,05+.FdfJ&&D* When =e are talLinB a>o;t Areci>oC I =ant toC of co;rseC recoBniAe the hard =orL that ConBress<an 5ort;no is act;all@ F;ttinB into this effort. It is a heroic effort. I a< ver@ Fleased to >e assistinB hi<. (;t of co;rseC =e are not tr@inB to do an@>od@ an@ favors here. *his isnQt an iss;e of doinB an@one a favor. 5irst and fore<ostC

the Areci>o telescoFe is doinB =orL c;rrentl@ that =o;ld cost ;s <oreC even o;tside of the area of Near-!arth '>?ects . !ven o;tside the area of Near-!arth '>?ectsC the Areci>o telescoFe is doinB =orL that =o;ld >e <ore costl@ to do ifC for eKa<FleC =e =o;ld send satellites. I ;nderstand =e sent a <ission to 2en;s that cost a certain a<o;nt of <one@C >;t the act;al i<aBes that =e Bot >acL fro< Areci>o =ere >etter than sendinB the Fro>e ;F to 2en;s. No=C ho= <;ch did that cost ;sG I <eanC it Fro>a>l@ cost ;s eno;Bh to LeeF Areci>o BoinB for a decade. And clearl@C alsoC =hen @o; looL at the sh;tdo=n costsC =hich has >een <entioned hereC if @o; taLe all of that toBetherC =ellC @o; co;ld Fro>a>l@ F;t that in the >anLC and the interest on that <one@ =o;ld Fro>a>l@ LeeF the Areci>o telescoFe BoinB . And this eKe<Flifies sort of the scre=>all nat;re of the =a@ =e do >;siness ;F here on CaFitol ill so<eti<es. And if =e let this asset >e set aside and closed do=nC it =o;ld >e a traBed@C >;t alsoC as I sa@C ver@ s@<>olic of the fact that =e canQt even do o;r ?o> in CaFitol ill eno;Bh to taLe a ver@ cost-effective assetC and so<ethinB that is doinB a <ission that is vitall@ i<Fortant to o;r sec;rit@C that =e canQt even Bet o;rselves toBether eno;Bh to Bet a li<ited a<o;nt of <one@ to LeeF that Fro?ect BoinB. SoC I thinL this is ver@ s@< >olicC and that =e sho;ld all >e =orLinB toBether on thisC and =e are =orLinB on this.

Asteroids Aff ;8/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

)+(DS*+!" )++D
)o4dstone is a ke: radar s:ste2no 2atching ca6abi4ities 8i44 be de5e4o6ed if it is cance44ed !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

*he 1oldstone Solar S@ste< "adarC located in the /o?ave Desert in so;thern CaliforniaC is Fart of NASA8s DeeF SFace Net=orL :DSNJ and is oFerated >@ the Tet ProF;lsion )a>orator@ ;nder contract =ith NASA. Co<FrisinB a f;ll@ steera>le +0-<eter-dia<eter antenna that can trans<it 500 Lilo=atts of =aves =ith a lenBth of nearl@ 4 centi<etersC this radar has a siBnificant caFa>ilit@ for o>servinB echoes fro< N!'s. It can see aFFroKi<atel@ ,0 Fercent of the total sL@ over the co;rse of a da@ :i.e.C
ever@ Fart north of a35` latit;deJ. *he 1oldstone antenna8s Fri<ar@ <ission is sFacecraft co<<;nicationsC and it is availa>le for astrono<@ o>servations onl@ a fe= Fercent of its ti<e. 1oldstone is the onl@ one of NASA8s three +0-<eter telescoFes :the others are in SFain and A;straliaJ eP;iFFed =ith a hiBh-Fo=er trans<itter.

*he lonB-ter< f;t;re of 1oldstone is ;ncertainM the DSN is considerinB deco<<issioninB all of its +0-<eter telescoFes after %015 and s=itchinB to an arra@ of 34-<eter-dia<eter telescoFes. Whether a radar caFa>ilit@ co<Fara>le to the Fresent 1oldstone caFa>ilities =o;ld contin;e is ;nclear .

Asteroids Aff ;?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

#ADA# 9(>S +9* $A( B"%

#adar and o6tica4 s:ste2s are ins0fficient b: the2se45es S$HW" $BA#* et a4 2008 :";ssel ).C (achelor of Science in Aerona;tical !nBineerinBC /I* /aster of Science in Aerona;tics and Astrona;ticsC /I*C
Association of SFace !KFlorers International Panel on Asteroid *hreat /itiBationC DAsteroid *hreats7 A Call 5or 1lo>al "esFonseEC httF7&&===.sFaceeKFlorers.orB&A*AC1".FdfJ&&D*

Asteroid i<Facts occ;r on >oth the da@liBht and niBht sides of the !arth in ro;Bhl@ eP;al n;<>ers. While there are
the anti-S;n direction. As

eKceFtionsC asteroids i<FactinB on the s;nlit he<isFhere aFFear to aFFroach the !arth fro< the direction of the S;nC =hile those i<FactinB at niBht aFFear to aFFroach fro<

a res;ltC =hile Bro;nd->ased oFtical telescoFes can o>serve the aFFroach of niBht i<FactorsC the@ cannot :d;e to solar BlareJC >e ;sed to detect and tracL those close to i<Fact on the da@ side 5ro< the da@liBht he<isFhereC N!' detection and tracLinB are restricted to radar telescoFes + $ 1enerall@C an@ action red;cinB the conseP;ences of a threatened N!' i<Fact. It ;s;all@ refers to those actions short of Fh@sical deflection of a N!' :e.B. evac;ationJ. + A radio telescoFe =hich has the caFa>ilit@ of active radio trans<issionC ;sed to o>tain Frecision tracLinB of N!'s . "adar tracLinB co<Fle<ents oFtical tracLinB andC =hen availa>leC can siBnificantl@ i<Frove Fredictions of N!' or>its. C =hich are insensitive to the >riBht sL@. 5;rther<oreC =hile oFtical telescoFes can detect and tracL the s<allest N!'s of concern fro< 1 to $ <onths >efore i<FactC radar s@ste<s =ith their li<ited ranBe can onl@ DseeE o>?ects this siAe =ithin 3 to $ da@s of i<FactC Frovided the oFerators Lno= Frecisel@ =here to looL. *h;sC for an i<Factor aFFroachinB fro< the s;nlit sideC there =ill >e a <aKi<;< of 3-$ da@s of =arninB ti<e for the evac;ation of a Fotentiall@ larBe tarBet Aone. !ven that <ini<al =arninB =o;ld >e availa>le onl@ for those asteroids detected on a Frevio;s close Fass >@ the !arthM that earlier tracLinB =o;ld Frovide ;s =ith the Fredicted i<Fact ti<e and direction of aFFroach necessar@ for ai<inB o;r radar telescoFes. (eca;se radar o>servatories have s<all fields of vie= and cannot vie= the entire sL@C an ;ndetected asteroid aFFroachinB !arth fro< the da@liBht side =ill Bive ;s little or no =arninB.

Asteroids Aff '0/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

$HA#A$*"# CA* +! B"%

9h:sica4 characteriAation of !"+s is ke: to effecti5e res6onse !#$ 2010 :National "esearch Co;ncil Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth '>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesC DDefendinB Planet !arth7 Near-!arth '>?ect
S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBiesCE httF7&&===.naF.ed;&cataloB.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%J

1ro;nd->ased characteriAation efforts can esta>lish so<e asFects of the Fh@sical nat;re of individ;al N!'s and of the N!' FoF;lation. o=everC detailed Lno=ledBe of the Fh@sical FroFerties of the N!' FoF;lation laBs far >ehind the c;rrent rate of N!' discoveries7 Considera>le effort is reP;ired to collect infor<ation a>o;t these >odies not onl@ to o>tain a >etter ;nderstandinB of the N!' FoF;lationC >;t also to ;nderstand ho= the Fh@sical and co<Fositional FroFerties var@ fro< one N!' to another. S;ch infor<ation is i<Fortant for assessinB the haAard Fotential of individ;al N!'s that <a@ threaten !arth and the via>ilit@ of FroFosed <itiBation strateBies. A <a?orit@ of the =orL s;FForted ;nder NASA8s N!' '>servations ProBra< to date has foc;sed Fri<aril@ on the detection and or>it
deter<ination of N!'s. *hese are necessar@ steFs in the effort to assess the Fotential i<Fact threat fro< s;ch o>?ects7 *he o>?ect8s or>it deter<ines =hether or not it is a threat to !arth.

***ADD.+!S

Asteroids Aff '1/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

M ! !) ADD.+!
Asteroid detection s6i44s o5er into 2ining and s6ace co4oniAation M>## (( A!D WHA("! 1??8 :/ar@ (eth /;rrill and /arL WhalenC NASAC DTP) =ill esta>lish Near-!arth '>?ect ProBra< 'ffice for NASACE T;l@
%4C httF7&&neo.?Fl.nasa.Bov&FroBra<&neo.ht<lJ #eo<ans noted that Fersonnel =ithin the FroBra< office =ill <aintain an

;F-to-date data>ase of near-!arth o>?ects and Rro;tinel@ FroFaBate their is not onl@ for haAard assess<entC he saidC >;t also to identif@ oFti<al oFFort;nities for Bro;nd-and sFace->ased o>servations of these o>?ects and Rto identif@ =hich >odies <iBht >e eKFloited for their <ineral =ealth in the neKt cent;r@. Asteroids offer eKtraordinar@ <ineral reso;rces for the str;ct;res reP;ired to coloniAe the inner solar s@ste< and co<etsC and =ith their vast s;FFlies of =ater iceC co;ld Frovide life-s;staininB =ater as =ell as the liP;id oK@Ben and h@droBen reP;ired for rocLet f;el .R RIt see<s ironic that the ver@ o>?ects that >ear =atchinB >eca;se the@ co;ld threaten !arth are the sa<e ones that are <ost easil@ accessi>le to f;t;re sFace <issions - <issions that <iBht eKFloit their considera>le reso;rcesCR he said.
<otions for=ard for tens of @ears to see =hether an@ of these o>?ects =ill <aLe interestinBC close-!arth aFFroaches.R *his activit@

Asteroids Aff '2/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

M ! !) )++D
Asteroid 2ining a44o8s 4i2it4ess gro8th (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J *h;s =e co<e to o;r finalC and <ost startlinBC discovers the sticL that threatens !arth is also a carrot. !ver@ neBative incentive =e have to <aster the i<Fact haAard has a corresFondinB Fositive incentive to reaF the >o;nt@ of <ineral =ealth in the =o;ld->e i<Factors >@ cr;shinB the< and >rinBinB the< >acL in tin@C safe FacLaBes C a fe= h;ndred <etric tons at a ti<eC for ;se >oth in sFace and on !arth. "e<e<>er that =e =ill al<ost certainl@ have h;ndreds to tho;sands of @ears of =arninB ti<e >efore a threateninB Blo>al-scale i<Fact. We need not >e driven lo rash and risL@ actions taLen FreciFito;sl@ ;nder threat of death. We =ill al<ost certainl@ have Flent@ of ti<e to deal =ith the Fro>le<. *his aFFroach o>viates the haAards of ;na;thoriAed deflectionsC since that technoloB@ =o;ld >e develoFed onl@ ;nder the ver@ i<Fro>a>le circ;<stance that a threateninB o>?ect is discovered onlv a fe= decades >efore i<Fact. *henC and onl@ thenC sho;ld the technoloB@ for deflection >e develoFedJ for the s;fficient F;rFose of forestallinB i<<inent Blo>al disaster. Dea4ing 8ith near."arth ob3ects sho04d not be 5ie8ed gr0dging4: as a necessar: e76ense/ it is an enor2o0s4: 6rofitab4e in5est2ent in a li<itless f;t;re7 a li>eration fro< reso;rce shortaBes and li<its to Bro=thM an oFen door into the solar s@ste<.and >e@ond. Mining asteroids 8o04d 6ro5ide infinite reso0rces@ and a4so initiate co4oniAation of s6ace@ a fa44.back for a g4oba4 disaster& Sonter 0' :deFendent scientific cons;ltant =orLinB in the A;stralian <ininB and <etall;rBical ind;striesC national sFace societ@C - 5e>r;ar@ %00$C DAsteroid /ininB7
0e@ to the SFace !cono<@E httF7&&===.sFace.co<&%03%-asteroid-<ininB-Le@-sFace-econo<@.ht<lJ

*he Near !arth Asteroids offer >oth threat and Fro<ise. *he@ Fresent the threat of Flanetar@ i<Fact =ith reBional or Blo>al disaster. And the@ also offer the Fro<ise of reso;rces to s;FFort h;<anit@Qs lonB-ter< FrosFerit@ on !arthC and o;r <ove<ent into sFace and the solar s@ste<. *he technoloBies needed to ret;rn asteroidal reso;rces to !arth 'r>it :and th;s catal@Ae o;r coloniAation of sFaceJ =ill also ena>le the deflection of at least so<e of the i<Fact-threat o>?ects. We sho;ld develoF these technoloBiesC =ith all d;e sFeedZ DeveloF<ent and oFeration of f;t;re in-or>it infrastr;ct;re :for eKa<FleC or>ital hotelsC

satellite solar Fo=er stationsC earth-<oon transFort node satellitesC Aero-B <an;fact;rinB facilitiesJ =ill reP;ire larBe <asses of <aterials for constr;ctionC shieldinBC and >allastM and also larBe P;antities of FroFellant for station-LeeFinB and or>it-chanBe <ane;versC and for f;ellinB craft deFartinB for l;nar or interFlanetar@ destinations. SFectroscoFic st;dies s;BBestC and QBro;nd-tr;thQ che<ical assa@s of <eteorites confir<C that a =ide ranBe of reso;rces are Fresent in asteroids and co<etsC incl;dinB nicLeliron <etalC silicate <ineralsC se<icond;ctor and Flatin;< Bro;F <etalsC =aterC >it;<ino;s h@drocar>onsC and traFFed or froAen Bases incl;dinB car>on dioKide and a<<onia. As one startlinB Fointer to the ;neKFected riches in asteroidsC <an@ ston@ and ston@-iron <eteorites contain Platin;< 1ro;F /etals at Brades of ;F to 100 FF< :or 100 Bra<s Fer tonJ. 'FeratinB

oFen Fit Flatin;< and Bold <ines in So;th Africa and else=here <ine ores of Brade 5 to 10 FF<C so Brades of 10 to %0 ti<es hiBher =o;ld >e reBarded as sFectac;lar if availa>le in P;antit@C on !arth. Water is an o>vio;s firstC and Le@C Fotential Frod;ct fro< asteroid <inesC as it co;ld >e ;sed for ret;rn triF FroF;lsion via stea< rocLet. A>o;t 10X of Near-!arth Asteroids are enerBeticall@ <ore accessi>le :easier to Bet toJ than the /oon :i.e. ;nder $ L<&s fro<

)!'JC and a s;>stantial <inorit@ of these have ret;rn-to-!arth transfer or>it in?ection delta-vQs of onl@ 1 to % L<&s. "et;rn of reso;rces fro< so<e of these N!As to lo= or hiBh earth or>it may therefore >e co<Fetitive vers;s earth-so;rced s;FFlies. ';r Lno=ledBe of asteroids and co<ets has eKFanded dra<aticall@ in the last ten @earsC =ith i<aBes and sFectra of asteroids and co<ets fro< fl@>@sC rendeAvo;sC and i<Facts :for eKa<Fle asteroids 1asFraC IdaC /athildeC the vast i<aBe collection fro< !rosC ItoLa=aC and othersM co<ets alle@C (orrell@C *e<Fel-1C and Wild-%. And radar i<aBes of asteroids *o;tatisC CastaliaC 1eoBraFhosC 0leoFatraC 1olevLa and other... *hese i<aBes sho= eKtraordinar@ variations in str;ct;reC strenBthC Forosit@C s;rface feat;res. *he total n;<>er of identified N!As has increased fro< a>o;t 300 to <ore than 3C000 in the Feriod 1--5 to %005. *he <ost accessi>le Bro;F of N!As for reso;rce recover@ is a s;>set of the Potentiall@ aAardo;s Asteroids :P AsJ. *hese are >odies :a>o;t ++0 no= discoveredJ =hich aFFroach to =ithin +.5 <illion L< of earth or>it. *he s<aller s;>set of those =ith or>its =hich are earth-or>it-BraAinB Bive inter<ittentl@ ver@ lo= delta-v ret;rn oFFort;nities :that is it is eas@ velocit@ =ise to ret;rn to !arthJ. *hese are also the >odies =hich h;<anit@ sho;ld =ant to learn a>o;t in ter<s of s;rface FroFerties and strenBth so as to Flan deflection <issionsC in case =e sho;ld ever find one on a collision co;rse =ith ;s. Professor

Tohn )e=is has Fointed o;t :in /ininB the SL@J that the reso;rces of the solar s@ste< :the <ost accessi>le of =hich >einB those in the N!AsJ can Fer<anentl@ s;FFort in first-=orld co<fort so<e P;adrillion FeoFle. In other =ordsC the reso;rces of the solar s@ste< are essentiall@ infinite... And the@ are there for ;s to ;seC to invest conscio;sness into the ;niverseC no less. ItQs ti<e for h;<anLind to co<e o;t of its shellC and >eBin to Bro=ZZ So >oth for sFecies Frotection and for the eKFansion of h;<anit@ into the solar s@ste<C =e need to characteriAe these o>?ects and learn ho= to <ine and <anaBe the<.

Asteroids Aff '-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

("AD"#SH 9 ADD.+!
Asteroid res6onse is ke: to >S 4eadershi6 !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

Witho;t the a>ilit@ to detect the <ost n;<ero;s asteroidsC to alter N!' or>itsC and to lead a Blo>al effort to Flan a deflection ca<FaiBnC the onl@ Fossi>le 4.S. resFonse =o;ld >e evac;ation and disaster resFonse. If NASA fails to FreFare for Planetar@ DefenseC and then a siAea>le rando< N!' striLes !arth =itho;t =arninBC the da<aBe to the 4.S.8s leadershiF and reF;tation =o;ld s=ell the tall@ of the event8s devastatinB effects. NASA sho;ld >eBin =orL no= on forBinB its =arninBC technoloB@C and leadershiF caFacities into a Blo>al eKa<Fle of ho= to effectivel@ shield societ@ fro< a f;t;re i<Fact.

Asteroids Aff '4/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

$+(+! CA* +! ADD.+!

*he 64an is ke: to h02an e764oration of asteroids *he !e8 %orker 11 W *ed 5riendC Staff =riter for the Ne= #orLer :5e>r;ar@ %,C D2er<in of the sL@M =ho =ill LeeF the Flanet safe fro< asteroidsGEC leKisJ&&D* Nine da@s laterC the White o;seQs 'ffice of Science and *echnoloB@ Polic@ reco<<ended that NASA >e the aBenc@ that oversees all research into Flanetar@ defense. SiBnificantl@C the decision also @oLed N!' detection and <itiBation to President '>a<aQs Flan to send h;<ans to an asteroid >@ %0%5C envisaBinB deflection activities Ras Fart of the overall <ission FlanninB and o>?ectives.R At the <o<entC the n;<>er of asteroids ?;dBed s;ita>le for a h;<an visit is fe=er than nineC and FerhaFs as fe= as Aero. So there is an o>vio;s need to find <ore asteroids-and to learn considera>l@ <ore a>o;t =hat itQs liLe to oFerate in their neiBh>orhoods. Pa;l A>ellC the lead N!' scientist at NASAQs Tohnson SFace 5liBht CenterC said thatC to find the riBht asteroid for a h;<an <issionC R<@ Fersonal oFinion is =e need a sFace->ased s;rve@ telescoFeC =hich co;ld Bive ;s ;F to fort@ ti<es the n;<>er of tarBets .R Within t=o and a half @earsC the 2en;s-or>it telescoFe to;ted >@ the *asL 5orce co;ld find several h;ndred Fro<isinB asteroids closer to ho<eC =hich co;ld c;t >illions of dollars o;t of the Frice of a <ission. #et =hat =o;ld >e a s<all steF for a h;<an <ission t;rns o;t to >e a Biant leaF for Flanetar@ defense7 NASA has alread@ indicated that it doesnQt have the ro;Bhl@ siK h;ndred and fift@ <illion dollars needed to f;nd the telescoFe. And a Fractice BraFFle =ith an asteroid <a@ occ;rC as vaB;el@ Fro<ised >@ the White o;seC onl@ =hen the h;<an <ission la;nchesC in fo;rteen @ears. :If it does la;nch7 in Tan;ar@C an internal NASA st;d@ s;BBested that a h;<an <ission to an asteroid =o;ld >e Rtoo costl@.RJ 'ne senior Flanetar@defense advocate s;BBests that sho;ld the h;<an <ission taLe Frecedence the tail =o;ld tr;l@ >e =aBBinB the doB. RSavinB <illions to >illions of FeoFle and civiliAation itself is a <ore i<Fortant Boal than disFla@inB A<erican Fl;<aBe and viBor >@ visitinB an asteroidCR he said. R(;tC in order to s;FFort three to five B;@s BoinB to an asteroidC I <a@ finall@ >e a>le to find <one@ for Flanetar@ defense.R *hat res04ts in 4ong.distance s6ace tra5e4 and co4oniAation $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es .C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* While tho;Bhtf;l FeoFle thro;Bho;t the =orld are co<inB to recoBniAe that the t=entieth cent;r@ is the aBe of sFacefliBht and that h;<anLind has >een offered an oFFort;nit@ for Breatness >e@ond the =ildest drea<s of the FhilosoFhers of the FastC fe= have @et recoBniAed the ;niP;e i<Fortance of the Flanetoids in this Breat h;<an advent;re. *here are at least siK reasons =h@ =e >elieve the Flanetoids or aster oids are ;niP;el@ i<Fortant as tarBets for eKFloration and ;tiliAation7 [ *he asteroid-Flanetoids sho;ld Frove to >e the so;rce of certain Linds of Lno=ledBe concerninB the oriBin of the solar s@ste< and even of life itself. Lno=ledBe =hich can >e fo;nd no=here else. [ *he Flanetoids reFresent a Fotential threat to sFace travelers and even to o;r !arth. Planetoids in the for< of <eteorites have hit the !arth in the Fast and =ill do so in the f;t;re. *he larBerC <ore Fotentiall@ destr;ctive ones co;ld >e F;rFosel@ deflected fro< their or>its.>@ <ad<en seeLinB to Rcontrol the =orldR.and <ade to striLe the !arthC destro@inB =hole co;ntries or even continents. [ *he@ can >e ;sed as =a@ stations and so;rces of rocLet FroFellants for interFlanetar@ vehicles. As =e disc;ss in detail laterC the@ can >e <ined for f;elC th;s Breatl@ red;cinB the cost and diffic;lt@ of lonB sFacefliBhts. [ *he re<arLa>l@ favora>le enerB@ >alance of the Flanetoids relative to the !arth s;BBests the Fossi>ilit@ of econo<ic transFort of ra= <aterials fro< the Flanetoids to the !arthC as =ell as the Fossi>ilit@ for caFt;rinB entire Flanetoids and >rinBinB the< into satellite or>its aro;nd the !arth. [ *he@ <a@ =ell >e the <ost desira>le locations in the solar s@ste< for fo;ndinB eKtraterrestrial colonies. [ *he@ offer a Fossi>le =a@ :and the <ost Fractical =a@ @et FroFosedJ for sendinB h;<an colonists >e@ond o;r solar s@ste< to FoF;late the Flanets of other stars. 5or these reasons and <an@ othersC the 4nited States and the =orld <;st no= resFond to the challenBe of the Flanetoids.

Asteroids Aff ';/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!>B" D"F("$* +! ADD.+!

*he 64an a44o8s s0fficient 4ead ti2e to de5e4o6 non.n0c4ear def4ection techthe a4ternati5e is 0sing ther2on0c4ear 8ea6ons As6ha0g 2002 :'cto>er %4C !riLC D SiAes and Str;ct;res of Co<ets and Asteroids7 What is Worth /itiBatinBC and o=G E NASA WorLshoF on Scientific
"eP;ire<ents for /itiBation of aAardo;s Co<ets and AsteroidsC FB. ,--J

#et =e <;st sFec;late D=hat if %00% N*+ =as headed o;r =a@ in %01-E. *her<on;clear asteroid <itiBation W FerhaFs o;r onl@ hoFeC toda@C in that oneina-<illion dire circ;<stance W can easil@ >e develoFed alonBside eKistinB =eaFons testinB and develoF<ent FroBra<s. IndeedC research in this area can >e contin;edC and even Fro<otedC in a <anner that affir<s Article I2 of the ';ter SFace *reat@ :Frohi>itinB =eaFons in sFaceJ and =hich affir<s the Fresent Co<Frehensive *est (an *reat@. *her<on;clear =eaFons desiBn is done in the <odern era >@ co<F;ter <odelinBC co;Fled =ith field- and la>-testinB of individ;al deFlo@a>le co<Fonents in a <anner that does not @ield an eKFlosion. 'f Fartic;lar relevance is the 4nited States DeFart<ent of !nerB@ Accelerated StrateBic Co<F;tinB Initiative =hich oversees <odelinB efforts ;sinB the =orld8s fastest s;Ferco<F;ters to Ferfor< hiBh-fidelit@ si<;lations r;nninB advanced 3D ther<oFh@sical and n;clear reaction codes. Do!-ASCI is a =ell-esta>lished and =ell-f;nded research FroBra< that
is alread@ Ferfectl@ s;ited to oversee <odel develoF<ent and testinB of an@ ther<on;clear asteroid <itiBation scenarioC alonBside the Do!8s >anner Boal to Dshift Fro<Ftl@ fro< n;clear test->ased <ethods to co<F;te->ased <ethodsE :see httF7&&===.lanl.Bov&Fro?ects&asci J. 'f co;rseC >lo=inB

;F asteroids =ith =eaFons of <ass destr;ction is a last resort and =o;ld >e an e<>le< of o;r iBnorance W the a>ove is not a resFonsi>le Flan for the lonB ter< h;<an f;t;re. *he far <ore liLel@ scenario is that =e shall detect all siBnificantl@ haAardo;s >odies soon eno;BhC and learn ho= to divert the< in a controlled <anner. 'ne need not >e >randed a >lind oFti<ist to Fres;<e that advanced and >eniBnC FerhaFs even Frofita>le technoloBies for N!' <itiBation shall >e develoFed in the co<inB cent;riesC so that ther<on;clear asteroid <itiBation never haFFens. In the @ear %5C000 W the averaBe ti<e >et=een no= and the neKt 300 < asteroid striLe W =e =ill Fres;<a>l@ have >etter tools. (;t in the interi< it is a rational safeB;ard to learn the detailed effects of hiBh enerB@ eKFlosions on asteroids >@ co<>ininB eKistinB <odels for asteroid i<Fact disr;Ftion =ith eKistinB national sec;rit@ co<F;tations related to =eaFons Ferfor<ance . (;t an@ <odel is onl@ as Bood as its >o;ndar@ conditionsC and an@ 2itigation 2ode4ing 6rogra2 8o04d ha5e to be co264e2ented b: e7tensi5e fie4d reconnaissance of asteroids and co2ets . Which >rinBs ;s >acL to the scientific reP;ire<ents that are the s;>?ect of this conference7
ho= do =e adeP;atel@ characteriAe an asteroid8s BeoloB@.

Asteroids Aff ''/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

!>B" D"F("$* +! EAD

!0c4ear def4ection ineffecti5e against aggregates of s2a44 asteroids@ as 8e44 as o5er 1 ki4o2eter. dia2eter asteroids& S:2ansk: 08 :Pa;lC staff col;<nist for *he eiBhtsC DAsteroids7 A realisticC >;t ver@ re<ote threatEC 5e>r;ar@ %,C leKisJ
If the scientists =ere to deter<ine that AFoFhis is a threatC =eQll fort;natel@ have Flent@ of ti<e to develoF and la;nch an effective deflection strateB@. *hanLs to <ovies liLe RAr<aBeddonR and RDeeF I<FactCR n;clear <issiles are FoF;lar choices to destro@ asteroids. *ho;BhC no

=eaFon larBe eno;Bh c;rrentl@ eKists to destro@ a 1-Lilo<eter-dia<eter asteroidC and if not co<Fletel@ incinerated >@ the >lastC o;r neKt Fro>le< co;ld >e <an@ sliBhtl@ s<aller and radioactive asteroids. *his techniP;e =o;ld also >e ineffective aBainst asteroids Lno=n as Rr;>>le File asteroidsCR =hich are aBBreBates of <an@ s<all ch;nLs rather than a <onolith. Several st;dies have Froved the efficac@ of Rn;clear F;lse FroF;lsionCR =hich relies on detonatinB a series of s<all n;clear >o<>s near the asteroid =hich =o;ld slo=l@ alter its co;rse. 'f co;rseC this techniP;e =o;ld need to >e aFFlied far in advance. *he shock of a n0c4ear 2issi4e 8o04d be absorbed b: the asteroid@ and 6otentia44: frag2ent into 6ieces that co04d sti44 de5astate the earth& $o0rier Mai4 0- :Ne=s headlines fro< (ris>ane U 9;eenslandC Nove<>er 0+C DSet to rocL =orldEC leKisJ *he Ar<aBeddon strateB@ -- sendinB ;F a n;clear =arhead to >last an aFFroachinB asteroid into o>livion -- is liLel@ to fail or even >acLfireC scientists sa@. An asteroid or co<et toFs the list of s;sFects resFonsi>le for the s;dden eKtinction of half of all sFecies a>o;t %00 <illion @ears aBoC and another <a@ have eKter<inated the dinosa;rs $5 <illion @ears aBo. *he 4S ConBress has <andated that NASA find -0 Fer cent of one-Lilo<etre Near-!arth '>?ects >@ %00,. So farC $+% have >een detectedC and none is a s;re threat for ro;Bhl@ the rest of the cent;r@. An asteroid that siAe doesnQt so;nd so >iBC
>;t =hen hittinB the !arth at ;F to ,0C000L<&hC the heat and de>ris co;ld alter cli<ate and destro@ croFsC res;ltinB in h;ndreds of <illions of deaths. Asteroids and co<ets arenQt the onl@ rocL@ horrors. *here <a@ >e half a <illion or <ore s<allerC harder-to-detect N!'s caFa>le of devastatinB a cit@ or reBion. Scientists sa@ the ti<e has co<e to Bet serio;s a>o;t the iss;e. (lastinB

asteroids =ith n;clear <issiles co;ld Frove ineffectiveC even disastro;s. /an@ asteroids are co<Fosed of r;>>le and co;ld a>sor> the >lastC co<F;ter si<;lations s;BBest. (esidesC =arns ClarL ChaF<an of the So;th=est "esearch Instit;te in (o;lderC ColoradoC RitQs liLel@ @o;Qd >reaL ;F the o>?ect ;ncontrolla>l@C =ith Fotentiall@ disastro;s res;ltsR -- liLe <;ltiFle fraB<ents Fo;ndinB !arth. !0c4ear detonation 8i44 on4: shatter the asteroid and s6read its da2age o5er a 4arger area& Science *oda: 0; :*he Irish ti<es. D*i<e to FreFare defences aBainst inco<inB asteriod or co<etEC /arch 1+C leKis.J If =e discovered in the <orninB that a larBe asteroid =as on collision co;rse =ith the earthC sched;led to hit ;s siK <onths fro< no=C =e co;ld do nothinB eKceFt fire n;clear =arheads at it =hen it ca<e in ranBeC orC =e co;ld send a <anned <ission to the asteroid and >;r@ =arheads in its interior to >e detonated =hen the asteroid astrona;ts are a safe distance a=a@ :hoFinB to avoid co<Flications s;ch as arose in the fil< Ar<aBeddonJ. *his direct hit see<s liLe a Bood idea ;ntil @o; thinL a>o;t it for a <o<ent. *he eKFlosion =ill shatter the asteroid into s<aller Fieces >;t Fro>a>l@ not alter its co;rse. *he asteroid <a@ =ell still hit the earth >;t over a <;ch =ider area than >efore.

***A!SW"#S *+/

Asteroids Aff '7/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ #+ DS )++D
Asteroid co44isions canDt be goodthereDs no chance for f0t0re de5e4o62ent if 8e a44 die ,"#S$H>># 1??' :1erritC Ad?;nct Prof of Ph@sics at 4 of /e<FhisC I<Fact7 the *hreat of Co<ets and AsteroidsC F. vJ
reconsidered. S;rvivors

"ecoBnition of the f;nda<ental role of >oth co<et and asteroid collisions in shaFinB evol;tionar@ chanBe <eans that the notion of s;rvival of the fittest <a@ have to >e

of essentiall@ rando< i<Fact catastroFhes.cos<ic accidents.=ere those creat;res =ho ?;st haFFened to >e Rl;cL@* eno;Bh to find the<selves alive after the d;st settled. No <atter ho= =ell a creat;re <a@ have >een a>le to s;rvive in a Fartic;lar environ<ent >efore the eventC >einB th;<Fed on the head >@ a larBe o>?ect fro< sFace is not cond;cive to a lonB and haFF@ eKistence .

Asteroids Aff '8/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ $A!D* D"*"$* SMA(( AS*"#+ DS

*echno4og: e7ists to detect s2a44 asteroids8e 30st donDt do it ("W S 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J

In o;r si<;lationsC a>o;t half the fatalities are ca;sed >@ s<allerC <;ch <ore freP;entC localiAed events. A>o;t a P;arter of the total deaths arise fro< ts;na<is ca;sed >@ i<FactsC and another P;arter fro< continental craterinB events and lo= air>;rsts. /eteorite tails contri>;te onl@ a tin@ fraction of the total. *he t@Fical ts;na<i event :1 BiBatonM %50 <eters in dia<eterJ occ;rs a>o;t even ten tho;sand @ears. *he FoF;lation of s;ch >odies in !arth-crossinB or>its is ro;Bhl@ %00C000. No= it is definitel@ technicall@ feasi>le to detect o>?ects of this siAe7 the SFace=atch FroBra< has fo;nd a n;<>er of near-!arth asteroids =ith dia<eters less than 10 <eter s& *he 6rob4e2 is not one of sensiti5it:L it is one of n02bers& *o Bet thoro;Bh sL@ coveraBe reP;ires a siAa>le arra@ of telescoFes. S;FFose that =e have a co<F;ter-driven telescoFe that is caFa>le of discoverinB ten %50-<eter asteroids Fer <onth. *he cost of each s;ch telescoFe is a>o;t S% <illion. In order to achieve a nearl@ co<Flete cens;s of the FoF;lation of near-!arth %50-<etei >odies in t=ent@ @earsC =e need an averaBe discover@ rate of 10C000 Fer @earC or ,50 Fer <onth. *h;s =e reP;ire the f;ll-ti<e services of a net=orL of ,5 s;ch telescoFes sFread aro;nd the =orldC or a>o;t 150 if reasona>le allo=ance is <ade for o>servational do=nti<e ca;sed >@ clo;diness and other Fro>le<s. *he installation cost of the s@ste< is th;s a>o;t S300 <illion. We sho;ld FerhaFs do;>le or triFle this a<o;nt to incl;de the cost of t=ent@Q @ears of oFerations :<ore hiBhl@ co<F;teriAed o>servatories have lo=er oFeratinB costsC >;t cost <ore to installJ. *his is still not a terri>le eKFense7 a sinBle <a?or ;n<anned sFacecraft s;ch as the 4S Air 5orce )acrosse radar s;rveillance satellite or the 2o@aBer o;ter-Flanet fl@>@ co<<onl@ costs S1 >illion.

Asteroids Aff '?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ S9A$" M (
!o risk of 6ercei5ed s6ace 2i4itariAation J res6onse on4: 0sed after 8e ha5e fo0nd the asteroid $o7 and $hestek D?' :Donald W.C Doctor in !d;cation and Ta<es .C Professional !nBineerC DDoo<sda@ Asteroid7 can =e s;rviveGEC PrintJ&&D* Asteroids eKist <ainl@ >et=een % and 4 A4s :one A4 eP;als the distance >et=een the s;n and the !arthJC and have Fredicta>le or>its. We can hoFe to discover all of those that are danBero;s in a fe= <ore @earsC and then eKFect to have @earsC or even cent;riesC to deal =ith the ones that are danBero;s. We do not need to FreFare any interceFtion techniP;es for the< until =e find a danBero;s one. *here =o;ld >e little reason to do soC >eca;se an@ defense =e =o;ld FreFare no= =o;ld >e <ade o>solete in a fe= @ears >@ the advance of technoloB@ . Carl SaBan :and othersJ arB;e that the ;se of larBe n;clear =eaFonsC for instanceC to destro@ or deflect inco< inB asteroids =o;ld >e <ore danBero;s than the o>?ects the@ are intended to interceFt. 5;rtherC for <ost o>?ects =e can e<Flo@ sliBht deflectionsC over lonB Feriods of ti<eC =itho;t n;clear eKFlosionsC to Frotect o;rselves.

Asteroids Aff 70/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ !ASA *#AD"+FF

!or2a4 2eans are that the 64an 8o04d not tradeoffthe re4e5ant re6orts a44 ad5ocate e7terna4 f0nding !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ

1%. *he *asL 5orce stronBl@ reco<<ends that the cost of NASA Planetar@ Defense activities >e eKFlicitl@ >;dBeted >@ the ad<inistration and f;nded >@ the ConBress as a seFarate aBenc@ >;dBet lineC not diverted fro< eKistinB NASA scienceC eKFlorationC or other <ission >;dBets. *heir 4inks donDt a664: J asteroid def4ection costs 4ess than other s6ace de5e4o62ent (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J

In o;r si<;lationsC a>o;t half the fatalities are ca;sed >@ s<allerC <;ch <ore freP;entC localiAed events. A>o;t a P;arter of the total deaths arise fro< ts;na<is ca;sed >@ i<FactsC and another P;arter fro< continental craterinB events and lo= air>;rsts. /eteorite tails contri>;te onl@ a tin@ fraction of the total. *he t@Fical ts;na<i event :1 BiBatonM %50 <eters in dia<eterJ occ;rs a>o;t even ten tho;sand @ears. *he FoF;lation of s;ch >odies in !arth-crossinB or>its is ro;Bhl@ %00C000. No= it is definitel@ technicall@ feasi>le to detect o>?ects of this siAe7 the SFace=atch FroBra< has fo;nd a n;<>er of near-!arth asteroids =ith dia<eters less than 10 <eters. *he Fro>le< is not one of sensitivit@M it is one of n;<>ers. *o Bet thoro;Bh sL@ coveraBe reP;ires a siAa>le arra@ of telescoFes. S;FFose that =e have a co<F;ter-driven telescoFe that is caFa>le of discoverinB ten %50-<eter asteroids Fer <onth. *he

cost of each s;ch telescoFe is a>o;t S% <illion. In order to achieve a nearl@ co<Flete cens;s of the FoF;lation of near-!arth %50-<etei >odies in t=ent@ @earsC =e need an averaBe discover@ rate of 10C000 Fer @earC or ,50 Fer <onth. *h;s =e reP;ire the f;ll-ti<e services of a net=orL of ,5 s;ch telescoFes sFread aro;nd the =orldC or a>o;t 150 if reasona>le allo=ance is <ade for o>servational do=nti<e ca;sed >@ clo;diness and other Fro>le<s. *he installation cost of the s@ste< is th;s a>o;t S300 <illion. We sho;ld FerhaFs do;>le or triFle this a<o;nt to incl;de the cost of t=ent@Q @ears of oFerations :<ore hiBhl@ co<F;teriAed o>servatories have lo=er oFeratinB costsC >;t cost <ore to installJ. *his is still not a terri>le eKFense7 a sinBle <a?or ;n<anned sFacecraft s;ch as the 4S Air 5orce )acrosse radar s;rveillance satellite or the 2o@aBer o;ter-Flanet fl@>@ co<<onl@ costs S1 >illion.

Asteroids Aff 71/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ +!(% !>B" D"F("$* +! W+#BS

*here are a4ternati5es to n0c4ear detonation (e8is 1??' - Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAonaQs );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@ :Tohn S.C "ain of Iron and IceC F. 1,3-%%%J
achieved escaFe velocit@ fro< !arthJ. *here

(;t s;FFose that =e =ere deter<ined not to taLe even the ver@ s<all risL inherent in la;nchinB an inert n;clear =arhead fro< !arth :the =arhead =o;ld not >e ar<ed ;ntil it

are several oFtions for asteroid and co<et deflection that do not involve n;clear eKFlosionsC incl;dinB che<ical FroF;lsionC electrical FroF;lsionC n;clear ther<al FroF;lsionC solar ther<al FroF;lsionC and solar sailinB. *he <ost efficient for< of che<ical FroF;lsionC >;rninB hiBhl@ volatile liP;id h@droBen =ith liP;id oK@BenC releases a>o;t 10R erBs Fer Bra< of FroFellant and Frod;ces a rocLet eKha;st =ith a sFeed of a>o;t 4 Lilo<eters Fer second. (;rninB %.5 <etric tons of FroFellant s;ffices to deflect the asteroid >@ the <ini<;< acceFta>le
a<o;nt. 4sinB less efficient f;el <iKt;reC s;ch as h@draAine and nitroBen tetroKideC =hich can >oth >e stored indefinitel@ in sFaceC red;ces the eKha;st velocit@ to %.5 Lilo<eters Fer second and increases the reP;ired <ass of FroFellant to 4 <etric tons. *he

Fro>le< is si<Fl@ one of landinB the rocLet <otor Bentl@ on the s;rface of the asteroid and sec;rinB it lo the s;rface in s;ch a =a@ that it can >e fired =itho;t da<aBe to itself or to the str;ct;ral inteBrit@ of the asteroid. Neither of these see<s an ins;Fera>le o>stacle.

So<e oFerational considerations co<Flicate the Fro>le<7 5or eKa<FleC asteroids rotate =ith Feriods of a>o;t t=o to fort@ ho;rs. Ai<inB the asteroid in a Fartic;lar direction >eco<es <;ch easier if the enBine >;rns for a ti<e <;ch shorter than the rotation FeriodC or if the i<F;lse can >e delivered at one of the rotation Foles of the >od@. It is act;all@ not hard to desFin a s<all asteroid co<Fletel@. A %50-<eter >od@ =ith a rotation Feriod of a fe=M ho;rs co;ld >e co<Fletel@ desF;n >@ the sa<e enBine >;rn that is needed to deflect it. o=everC to do thisC the enBine <;st >e sec;rel@ anchored to the asteroidQs eP;atorC ai<ed ver@ Frecisel@ anti-sFin =ardC and fired tan Ben;al to the s;rface. AnchorinB

the rocLet to a Foorl@ characteriAed and Fro>a>l@ ver@ heteroBeneo;s s;rface <a@ >e ver@ diffic;lt. R)assoinBR the asteroid and sec;rinB a ca>le aro;nd its eP;ator <a@ >e the >est =a@ to BrasF it fir<l@. Since ver@ lonB ti<es are availa>le for carr@inB o;t the deflectionC rocLet enBines =ith ver@ hiBh efficiencies >;t lo= thr;st levels <a@ also >e ;sed. *here is a >road class of rocLet enBines that derive their Fo=er not fro< che<ical reactions >;t fro< electrical acceleration of so<e aFFroFriate R=orLinB fl;idR to ver@ hiBh sFeeds . *hese electrical FroF;lsion devices incl;de ion enBinesC arc ?etsC Flas<a ?etsC rail B;nsC and <ass drivers. S;ch enBines can achieve eKha;st velocities of ten to a>o;t one h;ndred Lilo<eters Fer second C and therefore can achieve the sa<e Ferfor<ance as a che<ical rocLet =ith <;ch s<aller eKFendit;res of <ass . 'ffsettinB this advantaBe is the necessit@ of havinB a s;>stantial so;rce of electrical Fo=er to r;n the enBine. *hat so;rce can >e either an arra@ of Fhotovoltaic Rsolar cellsR that convert s;nliBht direcd@ into lo=-voltaBe electricit@C or a co<Fact n;clear Fo=er so;rce s;ch as a
radioisotoFe ther<oelectric Benerator :"*1J or a s<all n;clear reactor. 5or over t=ent@ @ears the Soviet 4nion cond;cted ro;tine fliBhts of radar ocean-s;rveillance satellites ;sinB *oFaA n;clear reactors as their so;rces of Fo=er. *he infa<o;s ;ncontrolled reentr@ of the 0os<os -54 radar s;rveillance satellite over the Canadian "ocLies in 1-+sFread a s=ath of radioactive fraB<ents over tho;sands of sP;are Lilo<eters of r;BBed =ilderness. *he <e<or@ of that Fotentiall@ devastatinB event has Frod;ced a stronB neBative attit;de to=ard the ;se of n;clear reactors in sFace. *he fact that the ?o> =as once done Foorl@ <eans that those =ho Lno= ho= to do it safel@ =ill >e denied the oFFort;nitv. Solar cellsC on the other handC are eKtre<el@ safeC >;t the i<aBe of a larBe solar cell arra@ deFlo@ed on the s;rface of an asteroid neKt to an oFeratinB rocLet enBine al=avs raises concerns that <odest a<o;nts of d;st lifted >@ the enBine <iBht coat and sh;t do=n the solar cell arra@. *=o other

t@Fes of enBines that are indeFendent of che<ical reactions are the n;clear ther<al and solar ther<al FroF;lsion s@ste<s. A n;clear ther<al enBine ;ses heat Benerated >@ a n;clear reactor to heat liP;id h@droBen to te<Ferat;res <;ch hotter than an@ che<ical fla<e. *he s;Fer-hot h@droBen is then vented thro;Bh a rocLet noAAle at s?ceeds close to ten Lilo<eters Fer second. )iLe electrical FroF;lsionC this enBine needs <;ch less <ass of fl;id than a che<ical enBine. (;t also liLe an electrical enBineC it needs a <assive Fo=er so;rce :the reactorJ. *he need to la;nch a Fo=erf;l reactor fro< !arth raises the sa<e safet@ concerns as the n;clear electric s@ste< descri>ed a>ove. *he solar ther<al enBine ;ses a larBe inflata>le <irror to collect s;nliBht and foc;s it ;Fon a thr;st cha<>er thro;Bh =hich liP;id h@droBen is F;<Fed. *he solar ther<al enBine is eKtre<el@ safeC >;t the larBe <irror is easil@ distorted >@ Bravit@ and hard to acco<<odate on the s;rface of an asteroid. It is alsoC liLe a solar arra@C v;lnera>le to >lanLetinB >@ line d;st raised >@ the enBine. *he <ain advantaBe of the solar ther<al enBine is that it ;ses all of the incident s;nliBht. !ven hiBhl@ efficient solar cells convert onl@ a>o;t 30 Fercent of the s;nliBht into electrical Fo=er. *h;s the solar ther<al enBine co;ld in FrinciFle >e rather liBht and co<Fact. (oth n;clear ther<al and solar ther<al rocLets achieve their Breatest advantaBe- =hen the@ ;se as their =orLinB fl;id a <aterial that does not have to >e lifted fro< !arth . PerhaFs the <ost attractive s;>stance for ;se in these s@ste<s is asteroidal or co<etar@Q =ater. .As in aiLidoC =e can t;rn a reso;rce of the threateninB >od@ aBainst itself.

Asteroids Aff 72/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ S9A$")>A#D S+(,"S

S6aceg0ard fai4s J on4: M4 2i44ion 6er :ear M+## S+! 200' - WorLinB 1ro;F on Near !arth '>?ectsC International Astrono<ical 4nion :A;B;stC DavidC D Asteroid and co<et i<Facts7 the ;lti<ate
environ<ental catastroFhe E httF7&&rsta.ro@alsociet@F;>lishinB.orB&content&3$4&1,45&%041.f;llJ *he SFaceB;ard

S;rve@ is intended to identif@ an@ Fotential threat to the !arth =ith a =arninB ti<e of at least several decades. C;rrent searches are oFti<iAed for findinB asteroids near 1L< dia<eterC =hich e<>races the lo=er li<it in siAe
for a Blo>al catastroFhe. :*he no<inal threshold is at %L<C =ith an ;ncertaint@ of a a>o;t factor of % in siAeC or an order of <aBnit;de in enerB@J. *he sFecific

dSFaceB;ard 1oal8 is to find -0 Fer cent of the N!As larBer than 1 L< =ithin 10 @earsC or >@ the end of %00,. ';t of an esti<ated total of 1000W1100 :(ottLe et al. %004M Chesle@ U SFahr %004M arris %004JC +5 Fer cent had >een fo;nd >@ the end of %005. *his is not as Fositive a res;lt as <iBht see<C ho=everC since the rate of ne= discoveries falls off as the s;rve@ nears co<Fleteness. *his s;rve@ is >einB carried o;t =ith aFFroKi<atel@ S4 <illion Fer @ear fro< NASAC Fl;s vol;ntar@ and in-Lind contri>;tions.a tin@ s;< co<Fared to the onBoinB cost of <itiBation for n;<ericall@ co<Fara>le >;t >etter-Lno=n haAards s;ch as earthP;aLesC severe stor<sC airFlane crashes and terrorist activities.

Asteroids Aff 7-/84

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D+D 30risdiction ca0ses conf4ict o5er c4assification and ki44s internationa4 coo6eration !ationa4 #esearch $o0nci4 2010 - Co<<ittee to "evie= Near-!arth-'>?ect S;rve@s and aAard /itiBation StrateBies SFace St;dies (oard
:DNational and International Coordination and Colla>orationE FB. -3--4C Aerona;tics and SFace !nBineerinB (oard Division on !nBineerinB and Ph@sical SciencesC httF7&&===.naF.ed;&oFen>ooL.FhFGrecordHidI1%,4%UFaBeI-3J

An effectiveC co<Frehensive aFFroach to the N!' haAard =ill reP;ire siBnificant FlanninBC coordinationC and cooFeration =ithin the 4.S. Bovern<ent. It see<s sensi>le to assiBn resFonsi>ilit@ for this N!' haAards FroBra< to an eKistinB Bovern<ental

ad<inistrative str;ct;reC esFeciall@ in vie= of the liLel@ relativel@ s<all siAe of the ;ndertaLinB. It also see<s <ore efficient to Flace the FroBra< ;nder the control of a sinBle entit@ in coordination =ith other relevant Bovern<ent orBaniAations. *he coordination co;ld >e i<Fle<ented >@ =a@ of a standinB co<<ittee or an interaBenc@ tasL force of the aFFroFriate aBencies to orBaniAe and lead the effort to Flan and coordinate an@ action to >e taLen >@ the 4nited States individ;all@C or in concert =ith other nations. *his co<<ittee or tasL force =o;ld have <e<>ershiF fro< each of the relevant national aBencies :NASA and the National Science 5o;ndation NNS5OJ and eKec;tive deFart<ents :DefenseC !nerB@C o<eland Sec;rit@C T;sticeC and StateJC =ith the chair fro< the lead entit@. :'ther relevant aBencies and deFart<ents <iBht incl;de the DeFart<ents of *ransFortation and of ealth and ;<an ServicesC the !nviron<ental Protection ABenc@C the 1eneral Services Ad<inistrationC and the DeFart<ent of ABric;lt;re.J *he first steF of the standinB co<<ittee or interaBenc@ tasL force =o;ld >e to define the necessar@ roles and resFonsi>ilities of each <e<>er aBenc@ in addressinB the vario;s asFects of

In vie= of the intrinsic international nat;re of the FroBra<C a civilian rather than a <ilitar@ aBenc@ =o;ld have advantaBes for ho;sinB it. 'ther=iseC one co;ld envision contin;al internal conflict over <ilitar@ sec;rit@ and classification iss;es. 'f co;rseC an@ Bro;F =ill have s;ch iss;es fro< ti<e to ti<eC >;t a civilian Bro;F co;ld have far fe=er s;ch conflicts and also =o;ld liLel@ >e <ore acceFta>le to its co;nterFarts in other nations . In an
the threatC fro< s;rve@inB the sL@ thro;Bh civil defense. *he lead resFonsi>ilit@ for a Biven tasL =o;ld >e assiBned to the aFFroFriate aBenc@ or deFart<ent. e<erBenc@C the <ilitar@ co;ld >e enlisted or aFFointed >@ the Fresident to helFM the <ilitar@ =o;ld <aintain c;rrenc@ =ith the iss;es thro;Bh <e<>ershiF in the standinB co<<ittee or interaBenc@ tasL force. A<onB the civilian aBencies and deFart<entsC NASA

has the >roadest and deeFest fa<iliarit@ =ith solar s@ste< o>?ects and its associated rendeAvo;s <issions. *he NS5 s;FForts Bro;nd->ased solar s@ste< researchC >;t it traditionall@ resFonds to FroFosals rather than initiatinB and orBaniAinB co<FleK FroBra<s :the International 1eoFh@sical #ear >einB one of the eKceFtionsJ. *he DeFart<ents of Defense and of !nerB@C ho=everC have >@ far the <ost i<Fortant eKFerience =ith n;clear eKFlosivesC necessar@ for so<e active-defense <issions for chanBinB N!' or>its. 5or s;ch <issions and their FreFarationsC these deFart<entsC or at least the latterC =o;ld certainl@ >eco<e involvedC =ith coordination >einB <aintained thro;Bh the standinB co<<ittee or tasL force descri>ed a>ove. NASA is a Fossi>le choice for the lead aBenc@. Within NASAC ;nder its Fresent orBaniAationC a nat;ral ho<e for this haAards FroBra< =o;ld >e the Science /ission Directorate :S/DJC =hich deals =ith solar s@ste< science. *he c;rrentC s<all haAards FroBra<.=ith an aFFroKi<atel@ S4 <illion ann;al >;dBet.is alread@ ho;sed in this directorate. (;t the haAards FroBra< disc;ssed here =o;ld >e <ore effective =ith its o=n director and >;dBetar@ line ite<:sJ to ens;re its via>ilit@ =ithin the <;ch larBer S/D. It =o;ldC of co;rseC derive >enefits
fro< and Frovide >enefits to the science and other FroBra<s in the S/D.

Mi4itar: asteroid res6onse 4inks to 6o4iticsitDs 6ercei5ed as s6ace 2i4 So22er 200; W PhD candidate at the Pardee "AND Brad;ate school :1eoffre@ S.C D Astrono<ical 'dds A Polic@ 5ra<e=orL for the Cos<ic I<Fact
httF7&&===.rand.orB&F;>s&rBsHdissertations&%005&"ANDH"1SD1,4.FdfJ In 1--4C the 4SA5

aAard E

la;nched Cle<entineC a sFacecraft that i<aBed the /oon and =o;ld have Froceeded to a fl@>@ of the N!A 1eoBraFhos >;t for a soft=are <alf;nction . *his <ission ;sed (allistic /issile Defense 'rBaniAation :(/D'J sensors and =as intended to DfliBht-P;alif@ %3 advanced liBht=eiBht technoloBies.E *he N!A tarBet =as chosen >eca;se it Dtested the f;nctions reP;ired for interceFtinB a <issile in <id-co;rse.E Cle<entine =as =idel@ Fraised for its strea<lined develoF<ent and lo= costs :S,0 <illionJ.1%$ In 1--+C the 4SA5
so;Bht f;ndinB for Cle<entine IIC a <ission that =o;ld have eKFlicitl@ tested the technoloBies for interceFtion of asteroidsC in the Frocess sendinB Fro?ectiles into the N!A *o;tatis and t=o other asteroids. Altho;Bh

ConBress allocated S30 <illion of 5#-, f;ndinB for the Fro?ectC it fell victi< to a line-ite< veto fro< President Clinton on 14 'cto>er 1--+.1%+ In ?;stif@inB this decisionC the White o;se cited concerns over co<Fliance =ith the Anti-(allistic /issile : A(/J *reat@ and noted that its architect;re for National /issile Defense :N/DJ did not incl;de sFace->ased =eaFons.1%, It =as clear that the White o;se sa= asteroid defense as a DstalLinB horseE ;sed >@ <issile defense FroFonents to advance their aBenda.

Asteroids Aff 74/84

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De5e4o6ing def4ection techno4og: too ear4: is baddistracts 0s fro2 2onitoring 9A#B et a4& 1??4 W President of the A<erican Ph@sical Societ@C PhD :"ichard ).C )ori (. 1arver of the National SFace Societ@ and *err@ Da=son of the 4S
of "eFresentativesC D*he )esson of 1rand 5orLs7 Can a Defense aBainst Asteroids >e S;stainedGE Partic;larl@ no=C =ith o;se

aAards D;e to Co<ets and Asteroids ed. *o< 1herelsC FB. 1%%5-1%%,J

n;clear =eaFons >einB dis<antled >@ the <a?or Fo=ersC an@ talL of a n;clear defense aBainst s;ch an ;nliLel@ haAard as cos<ic collisions =ill >e seen as an effort >@ the =eaFons co<<;nit@ to s;stain itself. *he risL of diversion of an@ <itiBation s@ste< to <ilitar@ ;ses <;st >e reBarded as a <ore i<<ediate haAard. IndeedC =e are concerned that the entire disc;ssion of <itiBation is Fre<at;re and serves larBel@ to divert attention fro< the Fri<ar@ tasLC =hich is to define the asteroid haAard. Detection is ke: J 8e can ha5e the techno4og: for di5ersion 9A#B et a4& 1??4 W President of the A<erican Ph@sical Societ@C PhD :"ichard ).C )ori (. 1arver of the National SFace Societ@ and *err@ Da=son of the 4S
of "eFresentativesC D*he )esson of 1rand 5orLs7 Can a Defense aBainst Asteroids >e S;stainedGE

o;se

1iven the freP;enc@ of Fast collisionsC <a?or i<Fact is ;nliLel@ to occ;r in the neKt cent;r@ . 'n the other handC all of <odern technoloB@ is sP;eeAed into the Fresent cent;r@C and the Face of technoloBical advance is acceleratinB. It =o;ld >e Fres;<Ft;o;s to s;FFose that defenses devised toda@ =ill >e of <ore than historical interest to o;r scientific heirs a cent;r@ fro< no=C or a <illenni;<C or a tho;sand <illenniaC =hen the rocL finall@ co<es. Disc;ssion of <itiBation <a@ serve one F;>lic F;rFose. It is i<Fortant that devastation not >e acceFted as inevita>leC other=ise societ@ <iBht Frefer not to Lno= =hen it is co<inB. An asteroid interceFtion =orLshoF hosted >@ NASA in 1--% :Canavan et al. 1--3J concl;ded that availa>le technoloB@ can deal effectivel@ =ith a threateninB asteroidC Biven =aitinB ti<e on the order of several @ears. *hat concl;sion 5a4idates the 5ie8 that c0rrent efforts sho04d concentrate on detection and orbit deter2ination&

aAards D;e to Co<ets and Asteroids ed. *o< 1herelsC FB. 1%%5-1%%,J

Asteroids Aff 7;/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ $ , ( D"F"!S"/M * )A* +!

#es6onse and 2itigation strategies 8o04d fai4nationa4 infrastr0ct0re 8o04d be destro:ed 8hich res04ts in 8ar@ en5iron2enta4 destr0ction@ fa2ine@ and ci5i4 co44a6se (e8is 2k :Tohn S.C Frofessor of Flanetar@ science at the 4niversit@ of AriAona8s );nar and Planetar@ )a>orator@C DCo<et and Asteroid I<Fact aAards a PoF;lated
!arthEC PrintJ&&D*

An i<Fact that destro@s a national caFitol or co<<and center <a@ contri>;te disFroFortionatel@ to chaos and hinder aFFroFriate resFonses to the disaster. *he QQdecaFitationR of a hiBhl@ centraliAed nation >@ loss of its Bovern<ent and co<<and str;ct;re co;ld serio;sl@ ?eoFardiAe its a>ilit@ to reBro;F and render aid to o;tl@inB areas. In so<e casesC =hich see< ever less liLel@ as co<<;nications and scientific ;nderstandinB of i<Facts i<FroveC the s;dden ;neKFected loss of a <ilitaril@C Foliticall@C reliBio;sl@C or c;lt;rall@ Fro<inent site <a@ triBBer RLnee-?erLR resFonses s;ch as riotinB or <ilitar@ action . 5or eKa<FleC a <a?or ;neKFlained eKFlosion in or near a <ilitar@Q >ase or national caFitol at the heiBht of the Cold War co;ld easil@ have triBBered a n;clear eKchanBe >efore cal<er heads co;ld Frevail. 0no=ledBe and Bood co<<;nications are the >est antidotes to s;ch >ehavior. I<Facts <a@ in so<e cases ca;se release of haAardo;s <aterials into !arthQs at<osFhere. Sites =ith s;ch haAardo;s <aterials =o;ld incl;de n;clear Fo=er FlantsC n;clear =eaFons asse<>l@ or storaBe sitesC <;nitions Flants and deFots stocLinB che<ical or >ioloBical =arfare aBentsC che<ical Flants =ith larBe >;rdens of toKic <aterialsC and refineriesC oil fieldsC and Fetrole;< tanL far<s. So;rces of ver@ larBe a<o;nts of sootC or of chlorine and >ro<ineC =o;ld >e esFeciall@ haAardo;s. *riBBerinB of earthP;aLesC volcanoesC or landslides reP;ires events of s;ch severit@ that the seis<ic resFonses >eco<e little <ore than ancillar@ details of the Breater Fro>le<. !ven if an i<Fact ofC sa@C <o<ent <aBnit;de +.5 :a 100C000-@ear eventJ triBBers an earthP;aLe of <aBnit;de -.0C that earthP;aLe is one that =o;ld have haFFened in an@ event as a nat;ral conseP;ence of the stress >;ild;F that <ade it Fossi>le. *he i<Fact <erel@ chanBes the ti<inB of the earthP;aLe. IndeedC >@ triBBerinB it earlierC the i<Fact act;all@ di<inishes the eKFected <o<ent <aBnit;de. *h;s the devastation done >@ a triBBered te<>lor =o;ld >e no BreaterC and Fro>a>l@ lessC than that =hich =o;ld have other=ise occ;rred. *he neBative effects assiBna>le ;niP;el@ to the i<FactC a>ove and >e@ond the far Breater da<aBe done directl@ >@ the i<Factor eKFlosionC =o;ld consist of the destr;ction and de<oraliAation of disaster resFonse Fersonnel and eP;iF<ent. I<Facts in s;lfate-rich terrains =ere disc;ssed in ChaFter 3 as a =orst-case eKtension of s;lf;r in?ection >@ <eteoritic
or co<etar@ >odies. Destr;ction of assets essential lor food Frod;ctionC FrocessinBC storaBeC or distri>;tion also Fresents a threat of starvation and social disorder. international resFonse to food e<erBencies is Fossi>le and effective for even a reBional-scale disaster :a 10C000-@ear eventJ. ti<escale covered >@ this si<;lationC interference =ith foodR s;FFlies is onl@ a <arBinal threat.

5or the ver@ larBest :<illion-@ear or larBerJ i<FactsC disr;Ftion of food Frod;ction is arB;a>l@ the <ost devastatinB sinBle conseP;ence . o=everC on the

o=everC an

Asteroids Aff 7'/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ D+ * $+,"#*(%
D+D contro4 of !"+ detection fai4s J secrec: is har2f04 and 0n6o604ar So22er 200; W PhD candidate at the Pardee "AND Brad;ate school :1eoffre@ S.C D Astrono<ical 'dds A Polic@ 5ra<e=orL for the Cos<ic I<Fact
httF7&&===.rand.orB&F;>s&rBsHdissertations&%005&"ANDH"1SD1,4.FdfJ Infor<ation Control Secrec@ aAard E

is at the far end of the sFectr;< of infor<ation <anaBe<ent. Sho;ld the@ >e aFFroved and f;ndedC f;t;re s;rve@ s@ste<s =ill have <ore centraliAed control than toda@C not deFendinB on the assistance of a<ate;r astrono<ers for follo=-;F. *his oFens ;F the Folic@ oFtionC at leastC for infor<ation control rather than ?;st <anaBe<ent. Infor<ation control is tolerated >@ de<ocracies in cases in =hich it is clear that s;ch control is eKercised for social >enefit. Certainl@C in iss;es relatinB to national sec;rit@C fe= =o;ld arB;e that the F;>lic8s riBht to Lno= is a>sol;te rather than <oderated >@ the i<Ferative of state s;rvival. In <atters relatinB to the N!' i<Fact haAardC ho=everC even the incl;sion of infor<ation control as one of a n;<>er of Folic@ oFtions is hiBhl@ controversial. AlonB those linesC AFFendiK ( doc;<ents an ;nFlanned social eKFeri<ent coincident =ith a Fresentation >@ this a;thor at the %003 conference of the A<erican Association for the Advance<ent of Science :AAASJ in DenverC Colorado. *here are a n;<>er of sFecific reasons for this aversion to secrec@C so<e <ore so;ndl@ >ased than others. Scientists and the ne=s <edia >oth have Frofessional Fredilections to=ard oFennessC and the N!' co<<;nit@ and the <edia have a co<<onalit@ of interest :as noted in the disc;ssion that acco<Fanies 5iB;re 5.-J that =o;ld ca;se a <;t;al reinforce<ent of this >ias. 'n the other handC <an@ scientists =orL on <ilitar@ Fro?ects and are acc;sto<ed to eKtensive social control over the fr;its of their la>orC incl;dinB the i<Fosition of secrec@. 'ne need looL no f;rther than the field of n;clear =eaFons desiBn and testinBC and international efforts to co;nter n;clear Froliferation. Scientists in the N!' co<<;nit@ are F;re scientist sC not aFFlied scientistsC and therein lies the difference. Astrono<@ is a science that ;s;all@ has no direct aFFlication to social concerns. 5ro<
an anal@tical FersFectiveC there is one overridinB concern7 that the i<Fosition of infor<ation control not ind;ce Frocesses that res;lt in a net social costC rather than the eKFected >enefit. If N!'

secrec@ =ere to res;lt in a chronic distr;st of instit;tions and Bovern<entsC s;ch distr;st =o;ld necessaril@ Benerate social costs. !ven =orseC those costs =o;ld >e ;nP;antifia>le and intracta>le. 5;rtherC distr;st co;ld >e enBendered in Folic@ areas far afield fro< the i<Fact haAard.

Asteroids Aff 77/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ $++9"#A* +! B"%

*he 64an a4one so45esthe >S can def4ect 8ith no internationa4 assistance M+## S+! 200; - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC D DefendinB the !arth ABainst Asteroids7 *he Case for a 1lo>al "esFonse E
httF7&&===.Frinceton.ed;&sBs&F;>lications&sBs&Fdf&13X%01-%X%0/orrision.Fdf Science and 1lo>al Sec;rit@C 137,+W103 J

We do not have toda@ the technoloB@ to deflect an asteroidC esFeciall@ not one of the <ost danBero;s classC =hich are larBer than 1 L<. o=everC it see<s reasona>le to eKFect that if s;ch a larBe asteroid is discovered C one =hose i<Fact co;ld Lill <ore than 1 >illion FeoFle and desta>iliAe =orld civiliAationC the sFace-farinB nations =o;ld find a =a@ to acco<Flish the deflection and save the Flanet. 'ne hoFes that this co;ld >e acco<Flished thro;Bh >roadl@ >ased international colla>orationC >;t it is also Fla;si>le that one nationC s;ch as the 4nited StatesC <iBht taLe the lead or even Bo it alone. 1iven s;ch a sFecific threat to o;r FlanetC al<ost an@ level of eKFense co;ld >e ?;stified. *his effort =o;ld reFresent the larBest and <ost i<Fortant technoloBical challenBe ever facedC and =hether it is s;ccessf;l or notC =orld civiliAation =o;ld >e forever chanBed.

Asteroids Aff 78/84

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Federa4 action is necessar: to 6ro5ide co22on standards@ 6ro2ote co26etition@ and coordinate res04ts S*+B"S et a4 2002 :StoLesC !vansC and )arsonC /assach;setts Instit;te of *echnoloB@ )incoln )a>orator@C Near-!arth Asteroid Search ProBra<C
IIIC httF7&&===.lFi.;sra.ed;&>ooLs&AsteroidsIII&Fdf&303+.FdfJ

Asteroids

Asteroid searches over the Fast %0 @ears have >een carried o;t >@ a n;<>er of indeFendent Bro;Fs ;sinB a variet@ of telescoFes and detectors. Prior to the 4.S. ConBressional <andateC there =ere onl@ three Bro;Fs consistentl@ o>servinB. *here =as relativel@ little co<Fetition for f;ndinB and reBions of the sL@ to search. As s;FFort to achieve the conBressional <andate >eca<e availa>le thro;Bh NASAC develoF<ent of detectors and efficient detection alBorith<s >eca<e the nat;ral o;tco<e of a <ore co<Fetitive environ<ent. *oda@C =ith the Bro=inB n;<>er of <at;re s;rve@ s@ste<sC it is Fossi>le to cover the entire o>serva>le sL@ on a <onthl@ >asis. *o oFti<iAe efficienc@ and <ini<iAe needless d;FlicationC it is aFFroFriate to consider coordination a<onB the <a?or search FroBra<s An active series of disc;ssions started in 1--- >et=een the <a?or 4.S. s;rve@ tea<s to address the iss;e of coordination. *he Fre<ise of the disc;ssions has >een that the reso;rces availa>le for asteroid search sho;ld >e aFFlied in s;ch a =a@ as to <aKi<iAe the total ?oint Frod;ctivit@ of the search s@ste<s. 'ne nota>le res;lt has >een the e-<ail distri>;tion to all the s;rve@s of coveraBe lists of fields s;ccessf;ll@ o>served =ith esti<ates of t@Fical li<itinB <aBnit;des. *his is reFresented BraFhicall@ >@ the /inor Planet Center :/PCJ
We> site and the )o=ell '>servator@ site. An eKa<Fle is sho=n in Plate 1. *his <ethod of coordination allo=s each search FroBra< to Flan the niBht8s o>servations =ith an ;nderstandinB of =hat other area FroBra<s have covered recentl@C and ho= deeF the coveraBe =as. As an added >enefitC the site is availa>le to a<ate;r o>servers and other s<all-scale FroBra<s that =ant to =orL aro;nd the <a?or s@ste<s. *he

neKt Fhase of the coordination effort centers on findinB so<e a Friori <ethod of coordinatinB the vario;s cooFeratinB search s@ste<s in a =a@ that achieves a larBer ?oint Frod;ctivit@. *his o>?ective is P;ite co<FleK d;e to the considera>le differences >et=een the oFeration8s conceFts and te<FosC caFa>ilities and <at;rities. *he c;rrent consens;s of the disc;ssions is that <ost of the s;rve@ s@ste<s are evolvinB P;icLl@ and have not @et de<onstrated their ;lti<ate caFa>ilit@. In additionC =e >elieve that in order to achieve a level of coordination >e@ond that c;rrentl@ oFeratinBC the caFa>ilities of each of the s@ste<s <;st >e eval;ated in a co<<on fra<e=orL and aBainst a co<<on standard. Considera>le disc;ssion on the s;>?ect has led to an aBree<ent to F;rs;e this Boal on several fronts as follo=s7 *asL 1. /aintain co<Fara>le search eKFerience infor<ation for all searches. *his =ill allo= a >etter ;nderstandinB of ho= the search FroBra<s co<Fare =ith one another and =ill allo= eKtraction of eKFerience infor<ation on a co<<on >asis. *his =ill >e acco<Flished >@ defininB co<<on ele<ents for each search FroBra<8s data>aseC =hich =ill contain looL->@-looL standard <eas;res of the seeinB and <aBnit;de li<it >ased ;Fon star <eas;re<ents. *asL %. DeveloF a co<<on ;nderstandinB of the <ost effective search strateBies to effect a search for 1-L< and larBer asteroids. 5or eKa<FleC decide ho= to distri>;te o>servation effort across the sL@ for >est Frod;ctivit@. *his tasL =as initiall@ aFFroached >@ FlottinB the )IN!A" detections of all N!As and all larBe N!As : c 1,J relative to the *asL 3. DeveloF a co<<on <eas;re of caFa>ilit@&caFacit@ for each search s@ste< to ena>le a s@ste<atic aFFroach to coordinatinB the search FroBra<s. 'ne of the <ost i<Fortant <etrics for a search effort is the vol;<e of sFace that the s;rve@ can search for asteroids larBer than I 1,. *his vol;<e <a@ >e calc;lated >@ cali>ratinBC on a field->@-field >asisC the deFth
si<ilar caFa>ilit@. If search s@ste<s can achieve a li<itinB <aBnit;de Ferfor<ance s;>stantiall@ >etter than )IN!A"C the strateB@ P;estion =ill need to >e revisited. of the search for the detection of an I 1, o>?ect. 'nce a relia>le cali>ration <ethod is fo;ndC the vol;<e of each field can si<Fl@ >e acc;<;lated over a Feriod of ti<e to Benerate an effective search vol;<e.

oFFosition in ecliFtic coordinates. 'nl@ the first detection d;rinB a l;nation =as incl;ded and detections res;ltinB fro< directed follo=;F activities =ere eKcl;ded. *he res;lts of these Flots are sho=n in 5iBs. 5a and 5>. *he Flots indicate that )IN!A" detects asteroids at all declinations and an all-sL@ search is an aFFroFriate strateB@ for s@ste<s =ith

Asteroids Aff 7?/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

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"7isting organiAations canDt hand4e !"+ trackingthe a2o0nt of infor2ation 8o04d o5er8he42 the2 S9A$"&$+M 200; :1%&%1C "o>ert A. /e@ersC staff =riter for sFace.co<C DNe= *elescoFe to "evol;tioniAe Asteroid WarninB S@ste<EC
s@ste< for handlinB the<. R*he

httF7&&===.sFace.co<&1,,3-telescoFe-revol;tioniAe-asteroid-=arninB-s@ste<.ht<lJ&&D* When these R=ide screenR hiBh-definition i<aBes finall@ start rollinB inC t;rninB the tricLle of ne= Fotential danBers into a torrentC it co;ld easil@ over=hel< the esta>lished

c;rrent <ode of oFerations for asteroid&N!' searches is for the vario;s o>servinB Fro?ects :and a<ate;rsJ to send their detections to the /inor Planet Center ... :=hichJ acts as a clearinB ho;se and the@ deter<ine or>its for the o>?ects and <aLe these availa>le to the Beneral co<<;nit@CR said 0aiser. RA Fro>le< =ith this <odel for Pan-S*A""S is that o;r rate of detections =ill >e <;ch hiBher and =o;ld s=a<F the c;rrent s@ste<.R 0aiser sa@s the@ Flan on handlinB <ost of the anal@sis of or>its the<selves. (;t itQs all Fart of ho= h;ntinB for these danBero;s o>?ects have chanBed in recent @earsC as <ore sensitive instr;<ents co<e onlineC and F;>lic a=areness :and occasional FaranoiaJ Bro=s. RWhat haFFens is that ever@ so often an o>?ect is detected that has a s<allC >;t not vanishinBl@ s<allC chance of hittinB the earth so<e ti<e in the f;t;reCR 0aiser eKFlained. (;t one o>servation is never eno;Bh to r;le o;t danBerC and it taLes the =orL of o>servers across the Blo>e to nail do=n a ne= o>?ectQs Fath -- a Frocess that can hardl@ >e done in secret. RWhile it <a@ see< conf;sinB to the F;>licCR 0aiser eKFlainedC Rthat discoveries of Fotentiall@ haAardo;s asteroids are anno;nced and then fairl@ raFidl@ declared to >e non-haAardo;sC this is in fact inevita>le.R

Asteroids Aff 80/84

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A2/ 9S%$H+A!A(%S S
9s:choana4:sis doesnDt a664: to asteroidse26irica44: testab4e 6h:sica4 theories are the on4: re4e5ant consideration %>DB+WSB% 200' :!lieAerC SinB;larit@ Instit;te for Artificial IntelliBenceC DCoBnitive >iases Fotentiall@ affectinB ?;dB<ent of Blo>al risLsCE forthco<inB in
Global Catastrophic RisksC A;B;st 31J

!ver@ tr;e idea =hich disco<forts @o; =ill see< to <atch the Fattern of at least one Fs@choloBical error. "o>ert PirsiB said7 R*he =orldQs >iBBest fool can sa@ the s;n is shininBC >;t that doesnQt <aLe it darL o;t.R If @o; >elieve so<eone is B;ilt@ of a Fs@choloBical errorC then de<onstrate @o;r co<Fetence >@ first de<olishinB their conseP;ential fact;al errors. If there are no fact;al errorsC then =hat <atters the Fs@choloB@G *he te<Ftation of Fs@choloB@ is thatC Lno=inB a little Fs@choloB@C =e can <eddle in arB;<ents =here =e have no technical eKFertise - instead saBel@ anal@AinB the Fs@choloB@ of the disF;tants. If so<eone =rote a novel a>o;t an asteroid striLe destro@inB <odern civiliAationC then so<eone <iBht criticiAe that novel as eKtre<eC d@stoFianC aFocal@FticM s@<Fto<atic of the a;thorQs naive ina>ilit@ to deal =ith a co<FleK technoloBical societ@. We sho;ld recoBniAe this as a literar@ criticis<C not a scientific oneM it is a>o;t Bood or >ad novelsC not Bood or >ad h@Fotheses. *o P;antif@ the ann;al Fro>a>ilit@ of an asteroid striLe in real lifeC one <;st st;d@ astrono<@ and the historical record7 no a<o;nt of literar@ criticis< can F;t a n;<>er on it. 1arrea; :%005J see<s to hold that a scenario of a <ind slo=l@ increasinB in caFa>ilit@C is
tell @o; the eKact sloFe of that c;rve. ItQs

<ore <at;re and soFhisticated than a scenario of eKtre<el@ raFid intelliBence increase. (;t thatQs a technical P;estionC not a <atter of tasteM no a<o;nt of Fs@choloBiAinB can

harder to a>;se he;ristics and >iases than Fs@choanal@sis. Acc;sinB so<eone of con?;nction fallac@ leads nat;rall@ into listinB the sFecific details that @o; thinL are >;rdenso<e and drive do=n the ?oint Fro>a>ilit@. !ven soC do not lose tracL of the real=orld facts of Fri<ar@ interestM do not let the arB;<ent >eco<e a>o;t Fs@choloB@. DesFite all danBers and te<FtationsC it is >etter to Lno= a>o;t Fs@choloBical >iases than to not Lno=. 'ther=ise =e =ill =alL directl@ into the =hirlinB helicoFter >lades of life. (;t >e ver@ caref;l not to have too <;ch f;n acc;sinB others of >iases. *hat is the road that leads to >eco<inB a soFhisticated arB;er - so<eone =hoC faced =ith an@ disco<fortinB arB;<entC finds at once a >ias in it. *he one =ho< @o; <;st =atch a>ove all is @o;rself. Terr@ Cleaver said7 RWhat does @o; in is not fail;re to aFFl@ so<e hiBh-levelC intricateC co<Flicated techniP;e. ItQs overlooLinB the >asics. Not LeeFinB @o;r e@e on the >all.R Anal@ses sho;ld finall@ center on testa>le real-=orld assertions. Do not taLe @o;r e@e off the >all .

Asteroids Aff 81/84

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Asteroid ad5ocac: is ke: to a4erting 6o4ic:2akers to the danger of !"As Morrison et a4& 2002 - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC Alan W. arrisC 1eoff So<<erC ClarL ". ChaF<anC Andrea Car;si D DealinB =ith the I<Fact
aAardE httF7&&===.disastersr;s.orB&e<tools&sFace=K&N!'HChaFterH1.FdfJ It is onl@ d;rinB the Fast t=o decades that scientists have >eco<e a=are of the scoFe of the asteroid i<Fact haAard. *his toFic =as >roadl@ revie=ed in 1--3C leadinB to F;>lication of a tho;sand-FaBe >ooL aAards D;e to Co<ets and Asteroids :1ehrelsC 1--4J that re<ains the Fri<ar@ reference in this field. With s;rFrisinB sFeedC this concern has >een co<<;nicated to Bovern<ents and the F;>lic :e.B.C /orrison et al.C 1--4J. D;e to the advocac@ of N!A researchers :=ith ti<el@ F;>licit@ fro< the collision of Co<et Shoe<aLer-)ev@ - =ith T;Fiter and t=o feat;re <oviesJC Folic@ <aLers and their constit;ents are a=are that i<Facts are Fossi>le. It is less clearC ho=everC that decision-<aLers are convinced that an@ <a?or action needs to >e taLen to deal =ith the i<Fact haAard. *he ad5ocac: ro4e of the science co220nit: is 6i5ota4@ beca0se the abstract nat0re of the 4o8.6robabi4it: threat di2inishes the 4ike4ihood of a res6onse b: either 6o4ic: 2akers or their constit0ents . In this chaFter =e disc;ss >oth the RfactsR of the i<Fact haAard and the associated iss;es of F;>lic FerceFtion and Bovern<ental resFonse.

A 4arge asteroid co44ision is 6ossib4e 8ithin o0r 4ifeti2es J need to ta4k abo0t asteroids to a4ert societ: to the risk Morrison et a4& 2002 - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC Alan W. arrisC 1eoff So<<erC ClarL ". ChaF<anC Andrea Car;si D DealinB =ith the I<Fact
While it

is hiBhl@ i<Fro>a>le that a larBe :dia<eter c 1 L<J N!A =ill hit the !arth =ithin o;r lifeti<esC s;ch an event is entirel@ Fossi>le. In the a>sence of sFecific infor<ationC s;ch a catastroFhe is eP;all@ liLel@ at an@ ti<eC incl;dinB neKt @ear. Societ@ needs to >e FreFared to deal =ith this event;alit@. In the <eanti<eC ho=everC the search for Fossi>le i<Factors =ill inevita>l@ lead to false FositivesC N!As that aFFear for so<e ti<e to >e a real threat. We need to consider the effect of *he !"+ co220nit: has a socia4 res6onsibi4it: to ens0re that its 2essage is not 30st heard b0t co26rehended b: societ: at 4arge. Since the haAard Lno=s no national >o;ndariesC it also >ehooves ;s to seeL sol;tions that recoBniAe the international constit;enc@ =ith a staLe in i<Fact Frediction and Frevention. !eed to engage in technica4 disc0ssions abo0t the asteroid threat to ed0cate the 60b4ic Morrison et a4& 2002 - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC Alan W. arrisC 1eoff So<<erC ClarL ". ChaF<anC Andrea Car;si D DealinB =ith the I<Fact
aAardE httF7&&===.disastersr;s.orB&e<tools&sFace=K&N!'HChaFterH1.FdfJ While N!'

aAardE httF7&&===.disastersr;s.orB&e<tools&sFace=K&N!'HChaFterH1.FdfJ

s;ch reForts on societ@. As =e disc;ss in the final sections of this chaFterC i<Fact haAard st;dies can >e considered an aFFlied scienceM that isC science aFFlied to tanBi>le needs of societ@. In deter<ininB an oFti<;< or even advisa>le haAard <itiBation strateB@C the reaction of societ@ to scientific infor<ation on the haAard sho;ld >e considered.

research e<>odies classic scientific o>?ectivesC st;dies of i<Fact haAards for< an aFFlied science that <a@ >e ?;dBed >@ different criteria. In deter<ininB an N!' haAard <itiBation strateB@C =e <;st consider the reaction of societ@. S;ch considerations are fa<iliar to sFecialists in other fields of nat;ral haAardC s;ch as <eteoroloB@ :=ith resFect to stor< forecastsJ and seis<oloB@. N!' haAard sFecialists have the added diffic;lt@ of eKFlaininB a science that is arcane :or>ital d@na<icsJ and >e@ond Fersonal eKFerience :no i<Fact disaster =ithin recorded histor@J. As the N!' co<<;nit@ has >eB;n to realiAeC it has a socia4 res6onsibi4it: to ens0re that its 2essage is not 30st heard b0t co26rehended b: societ: at 4arge& *he adoFtion of the *orino I<Fact Scale :(inAelC 1--+C %000J =as a nota>le first steF to=ard F;>lic co<<;nicationC altho;Bh the ;niP;e asFects of N!' detection
and =arninB :Fartic;larl@ the evol;tion of ;ncertaint@J contin;e to ca;se co<<;nications diffic;lties :ChaF<anC %000J.

$o220nication to the 60b4ic is ke: to contin0ed s066ort for !"+ s0r5e:s Morrison et a4& 2002 - NASA Astro>ioloB@ Instit;te :DavidC Alan W. arrisC 1eoff So<<erC ClarL ". ChaF<anC Andrea Car;si D DealinB =ith the I<Fact
aAardE httF7&&===.disastersr;s.orB&e<tools&sFace=K&N!'HChaFterH1.FdfJ

'nce it is acceFted that the i<Fact haAard is a social and not ?;st a scientific Fro>le<C it is a short steF to allo= that considerations of <aKi<;< social >enefit <a@ =ell constrain the scoFe and for< of scientific investiBation. *hat isC =hile the scientificall@ oFti<;< level of ;ncertaint@ is AeroC the sociall@ oFti<;< level is nonAero. It is neither Fossi>le nor afforda>le to re<ove risL and ;ncertaint@ entirel@. *his is not ?;st a trite >enefit-cost arB;<ent. "atherC scientific infor<ation can have <arBinal dis;tilit@. As an eKa<FleC <an@ <iBht arB;e that societ@ inc;rs a net cost for the
science of n;clear Fh@sicsC since n;clear Froliferation is facilitated there>@. N;clear test >an treaties rest ;Fon a Fres;<Ftion of the dis;tilit@ of the scientific and technical infor<ation derived fro< the tests. *he

inescaFa>le concl;sion is that ifC desFite its >est intentionsC the N!' co<<;nit@ levies a Ferceived cost to societ@ thro;Bh <ishandled or Bar>led co<<;nicationC then societ@ <a@ =ell act to re<ove that cost >@ choosinB not to s;FFort N!' s;rve@s and related =orL.

Asteroids Aff 82/84

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*he 2indset of contro4 o5er h02an destin: is critica4 to 6re5ent e7tinction ,"#S$H>># 1??' :1erritC Ad?;nct Prof of Ph@sics at 4 of /e<FhisC I<Fact7 the *hreat of Co<ets and AsteroidsC F. %15J ChildhoodQs end <arLs the ti<e =hen =e recoBniAe that the decisions =e <aLe no= =ill deter<ine o;r fate C >arrinB rando< catastroFhes of co;rse. In ?;st this =a@C o;r sFecies str;BBles to=ard <ental <at;rit@C and it has onl@ ?;st >eB;n to confront an a=eso<e FersFective. No one Fro<ised ;s a rose BardenM if =e =ant oneC it is ;F to ;s to Flant it. *his is =hat I see >ehind the <essaBe of the co<ets and asteroids. Will =e do so<ethinB a>o;t ass;rinB o;r lonB-ter< s;rvivalG (ased on =hat =e have seen a>o;t Fast i<FactsC ;nless =e taLe this iss;e serio;sl@C no=C it is ;nliLel@ that civiliAationC and Fro>a>l@ o;r sFeciesC =ill have a lonB-ter< f;t;re lastinB tho;sands of @ears . *o >eBin to taLe action <eans that =e <iBht have to transcend traditional thinLinB a>o;t ho= =e ca<e to >e hereC and =here =e are headed. *o F;t this another =a@C to ass;re o;r lonB-ter< s;rvival =e <a@ have to taLe charBe of evol;tion in a conscio;s <anner. 5or s;ch a steF there is no Frecedent in h;<an histor@C or in the histor@ of an@ sFecies that ever roa<ed the earth. *he Foint is that if evol;tion is driven >@ the occasional Rrando<R i<Fact that destro@s a siBnificant fraction of sFecies alive at an@ ti<eC taLinB steFs to avoid a f;t;re collision is tanta<o;nt to seeLinB to control o;r destin@ >@ avoidinB =hat other=ise =o;ld have haFFened. Are =e read@ to ?oin toBether to thinL a>o;t thisG Can =e even do an@thinB to ass;re o;r s;rvivalG Sho;ld =e >otherG

Asteroids Aff 8-/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ *#AD"+FF/S9"!D !)
"ar4: detection 6re5ents e76ensi5e crash 6rogra2s !A$ 2010 :D"eFort of the NASA Advisor@ Co;ncil Ad oc *asL 5orce on Planetar@ DefenseCE 'ct $C httF7&&===.nss.orB&reso;rces&li>rar@&Flanetar@defense&%010NASAAdvisor@Co;ncil'nPlanetar@Defense.FdfJ larBer than 140 <eters in siAeJ is *he drivinB FhilosoFh@ >ehind the national and international defense aBainst N!'s sho;ld >eC D5ind the< earl@.E !arl@

detection of N!'s :esFeciall@ those Le@ to <o;ntinB an effective--and cost-effective--Planetar@ Defense effort. An adeP;ate searchC detectionC and tracLinB caFa>ilit@ co;ld find haAardo;s o>?ects several @ears or decades >efore the@ threaten i<Fact. !arl@ detection and follo=;F tracLinB of haAardo;s N!'s eli<inates an@ need for a standinB defense caFa>ilit@ >@ <ission-read@ deflection sFacecraft =ith their hiBh attendant costs. $. Acc;rate or>ital Fredictions >ased on an adeP;ate and credi>le search and tracLinB caFa>ilit@ =ill eli<inate <an@ a<>iB;o;s i<Fact threats fro< N!'sC r;linB o;t a collision lonB >efore an eKFensive deflection sol;tion >eco<es necessar@. *his reP;ires red;cinB the ;ncertaint@ in an@ N!'8s o>served and Fredicted Fosition. *he *asL 5orce refers to this strateB@ as Dred;cinB the error elliFseE as raFidl@ as Fossi>le. +. A relativel@ lo=-costC earl@ invest<ent in searchC tracLC and follo=-;F o>servations thro;Bh Bro;ndand sFace->ased s@ste<s :incl;dinB radarJ is a Fo=erf;l cost-savinB strateB@. S;ch a caFa>ilit@ =ill Fa@ off handso<el@ >@ ena>linB <ore acc;rate or>it deter<inationM eli<inatinB <an@ Fredictions of N!'s =ith a =orriso<e Fro>a>ilit@ of i<Fact :an ;nco<forta>l@ hiBhC >;t ;ncertainC Fro>a>ilit@ of !arth collisionJM and avoidinB the la;nch of a deflection or even a transFonder tracLinB sFacecraftC each costinB h;ndreds of <illions of dollars .

Asteroids Aff 84/84

Michigan Debate 2011 7 Week SeniorsWHAM

A2/ )+,"#!M"!* SH>*D+W!

*"((AM 2011 :/attC considered >@ so<e to >e A<erica8s finest ?o;rnalistC DCol;<n7 /edia overh@Fed i<Fro>a>le Bovern<ent sh;tdo=nCE 'reBon Dail@ !<eraldC AFril 13J A crisis =as DavertedE 5rida@ eveninB =hen leaders of ConBress and President '>a<a co<Fro<ised on an aBree<ent to shave ro;Bhl@ 3,.5 >illion of the %011 >;dBet . a =hoFFinB 1 Fercent. Incl;ded =ith the aBree<ent =as a sFendinB >ill that =ill f;nd the Bovern<ent for a>o;t the neKt =eeL. (oth the co<Fro<ise and the sFendinB >ill still have to >e aFFroved >@ the o;se and Senate. *he reason for the P;otations a>ove is that the sh;tdo=n =as eKtre<el@ ;nliLel@ to haFFenC desFite =hat the <edia =as sa@inB. It Fro>a>l@ isn8t shocLinB to an@one that the <edia ;sed the vaB;e

Fossi>ilit@ of the Bovern<ent Dsh;ttinB do=nE to attract vie=ers. Ne=s aBencies Fla@ed off the fear and ;ncertaint@ to LeeF the A<erican F;>lic Bl;ed to their laFtoFs and television screens. A verita>le >;ffet of h@Fothetical sit;ations =ere served a la carteC allo=inB ;s to chose =hichever sit;ations friBhtened ;s the <ost or si<Fl@ load o;r Flates =ith all of the<. *o the <edia8s creditC if the Bovern<ent had sh;t do=nC it =o;ld indeed have >een a crisis. It =o;ld have >een ;nthinLa>le if <ilitar@ fa<ilies or federal e<Flo@ees hadn8t >een Faid. (;t =hat the <edia reall@ sho;ld have foc;sed on =as ho= liLel@ a Bovern<ental sh;tdo=n act;all@ =as. *he liLelihood =as less than the FercentaBe c;t of the >;dBet. "eBardless of ho= <;ch Fost;rinB =as BoinB on >@ Foliticians Frior to a deal >einB >roLeredC a Bovern<ental sh;tdo=n =o;ld have >een so Foliticall@ da<aBinB for ever@one involved that it si<Fl@ =o;ld not have haFFened. #esC there =as fier@ rhetoric fro< "eF;>licansC tr@inB to aFFeal to their >ase >@ <aLinB >o<>astic clai<s a>o;t shreddinB Bovern<ent sFendinB. *here =ere aBBressive state<ents <ade >@ De<ocratsC clai<inB "eF;>licans =ere atte<FtinB to t;rn the de>ate into a social Folic@ iss;e over Planned Parenthood. In the endC Foliticians did =hat =as Foliticall@ necessar@7 *he@ co<Fro<ised. It is si<Fl@ >asic >arBaininB strateB@. *he N(A is BoinB thro;Bh a si<ilar Frocess riBht no=. If a ne= collective >arBaininB aBree<ent is not reached >@ the end of the s;<<erC it is liLel@ there =on8t >e a season neKt @ear :i.e. sh;tdo=nJ. *here are reForts that the Fla@ers8 ;nion and the o=ners are seFarated >@ larBe B;lfsC Fartic;larl@ over the Fla@ers8 salaries. /an@ tea<s are oFeratinB at heav@ losses :i.e. deficitsJ >eca;se of the inflated salaries. "iBht no= it =o;ld aFFear there =on8t >e an N(A season neKt @ear. *hat =ill chanBe as the s;<<er aFFroaches. When individ;als co<e to the >arBaininB ta>leC the@ start =ith their <ost eKtre<e de<ands. #o; don8t Bo to a Sat;rda@ <arLet offerinB a tho;sand >;cLs for a leather =allet. *=o oFFosite Fositions are laid o;tC and thro;Bh neBotiatinB @o; co<e to at least an acceFta>leC if not co<Fletel@ aBreea>leC o;tco<e. Ne=s aBencies either failed to acLno=ledBe this or si<Fl@ chose not to. *he@ chose instead to foc;s on the visi>le Fla@ers of the FrocessC <ainl@ President '>a<aC Senate /a?orit@ )eader arr@ "eid and SFeaLer of the o;se Tohn (oehner. *he@ noted do=n =hat these individ;als =ere sa@inB and ho= far aFart their oFinions and Boals =ere. AccordinB to their state<entsC a deal =as not liLel@. (;t the easiest =a@ for Foliticians to co<e to an aBree<ent is to shirL resFonsi>ilit@ in order to not aFFear to >e Lo=to=inB. It =as not these individ;als =ho for<ed the co<Fro<ise. "atherC it =as their ;nderlinBs. *he deal =as reall@ >roLered >@ "eid8s chief of staffC David 0roneM '>a<a8s leBislative directorC "o> Na>ors and (oehner8s chief of staffC (arr@ TacLson. *he <edia sho;ld have sFent <ore ti<e foc;sinB on these individ;als if the@ =anted to forecast ho= liLel@ a sh;tdo=n =as. *he deal did see< to co<e at the last Fossi>le <o<ent . =hat the <edia d;>>ed Dthe eleventh ho;r.E And <an@ FeoFle =ere riBhtf;ll@ ;Fset that it tooL so lonB to develoF. If <@ Fa@checL =as Fredicated on a f;nded Bovern<entC I =o;ld Fro>a>l@ >e <ore ;Fset a>o;t the Foliticians >icLerinB =hen <@ fa<il@8s livelihood deFended on their decision. (;t aBainC these t@Fes of sit;ations al=a@s tend to ;nfold this =a@. It8s liLe a Ba<e of DchicLenCE seeinB =hich Folitician =ill >reaL a=a@ first. What al<ost al=a@s haFFens in the end is >oth s=erve their cars a=a@ at the last second to avoid a head-on collision. *his is eKactl@ =hat haFFened 5rida@ niBht. 5ollo=inB the aBree<entC F;ndits eaBerl@ looLed to see =ho the D=innersE and the DlosersE of the aBree<ent =ere. *he sad realit@ is there reall@ =ere no =inners. So<e FeoFle ?;st didn8t lose as <;ch as others. *he Bovern<ent =ill contin;e to >e f;nded for another =eeL. 5a<ilies deFendent on the Bovern<ent =ill contin;e to >e Faid. (oehner looLs liLe he =on concessions fro< the De<ocrats. '>a<a and "eid looL liLe fleKi>le leaders. *he onl@ real DloserE =as the

<edia itselfC =hich devoted its ti<e to FredictinB =hat =o;ld haFFen if a sh;tdo=n =ere to haFFen. *he@ =o;ld have >een <ore ;sef;l eKa<ininB =hat =o;ld haFFen if an asteroid collided =ith earth .