DISTRIBUCION NORMA

AO

MEDIA

f(x)

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88

0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29
346.06

0.002
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001

Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
N

PROBABILIDA
PARA UN CAUDAL :

PROBABILIDAD

RETORNO
PERIODO DE RETORNO :
CAUDAL MAXIMO
:

DISTRIBUCION LOG-N
AO

MAX

lnx

F(X)

1980

252.84

5.533

0.00239

1981

629.58

6.445

0.00073

1982

664.29

6.499

0.00059

1983

190.94

5.252

0.00145

1984

715.28

6.573

0.00044

1985

320.82

5.771

0.00265

1986

717.93

6.576

0.00043

1987

466.92

6.146

0.00172

1988

418.91

6.038

0.00210

1989
1990

360.22
208.88

5.887
5.342

0.00250
0.00178

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

5.830
4.989
5.824
6.585
5.720
5.772

0.00260
0.00063
0.00260
0.00041
0.00265
0.00265

1997

346.06

5.847

0.00257

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

5.992
6.019
6.267
6.338
5.881
6.186
5.462
5.381

0.00224
0.00216
0.00128
0.00104
0.00252
0.00158
0.00218
0.00192

DISTRIBUCION GUMBE
AO

MAX

F(X)

MEDIA

1980

252.84

0.00

MEDIANA

1981

629.58

1.00

DESV. EST.

1982

664.29

1.00

CURTOSIS

1983

190.94

0.00

COEF. VAR.

1984

715.28

1.00

C. ASIMETRIA

1985

320.82

0.00

RANGO

1986

717.93

1.00

MINIMO

1987

466.92

0.96

MAXIMO

1988

418.91

0.54

SUMA

1989

360.22

0.00

1990

208.88

0.00

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00

PERIODO DE RETORNO

1997

346.06

0.00

LIMITE DE CONFIANZA

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

0.17
0.39
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.98
0.00
0.00

KT
QTr

=
=

Se

t(1-) =

Gumbel

1.20

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

DISTRIBUCION PEARSON
AO

MAX

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88

1991
1992
1993

340.48
146.74
338.25

MEDIA
MEDIANA
DESV. EST.
CURTOSIS
COEF. VAR.
C. Asimetria
RANGO
MINIMO
MAXIMO
SUMA
N

410.36
359.16
172.37
-0.71
0.42
0.540
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

PERIODO DE RETORNO
K

:
2.714

1994
1995
1996

723.90
304.89
321.29

1997

346.06

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

QTr

878.21

DISTRIBUCION LOG-PEAR
Ao

Max

LogX

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91

2.40
2.80
2.82
2.28
2.85
2.51
2.86
2.67
2.62

1989
1990

360.22
208.88

2.56
2.32

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

2.53
2.17
2.53
2.86
2.48
2.51

1997

346.06

2.54

1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

2.60
2.61
2.72
2.75
2.55
2.69
2.37
2.34

MEDIA
DESV. EST.
C. ASIM.
MEDIA LOG
DE. EST. LOG
C. ASIM. LOG
RANGO
MINIMO
MAXIMO
SUMA
N

PERIODO DE RETORNO
K
QTr

=
=

DISTRIBUCION G

DISTRIBUCION G

n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

Ao
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

X
252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88
340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29
346.06
400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

Dist. Normal

Dist. Log-normal

Dist. Gumbel

Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar

410.36
359.16
172.37

410.36

410.36
359.16
172.37

DESV. EST. LNX

Varianza muestra

29710.47

COEF. VAR. X
Curtosis

172.37
0.44
0.42

-1.13

0.42
-0.71

Coeficiente asimetra
Coef. asimetra log
Rango
Escala
Forma
N
Med Log

0.54

0.54

0.54

577.16

577.16

577.16

26

26
5.93

26

ION NORMAL
410.36
359.16
172.37
29710.47
-1.13
0.54
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

PROBABILIDADES

Funcin de de

450.00 <
0.23 <

Q
Z

<
<

730.00
1.85

0.002

37.72 %

0.002

RETORNO

ETORNO :
MO
:

0.003

100
811.35

aos
M3/seg

0.001
0.001

0.000
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.0

CION LOG-NORMAL
MEDIA X

410.36

MEDIA LNX

5.93

DESV. EST. X

172.37

DESV. EST. LNX

0.44

COEF. VAR. X

0.42

C. ASIMETRIA

0.54

RANGO

577.16

MINIMO

146.74

MAXIMO

723.90

SUMA

10669.42

26

PERIODO DE RETORNO

2.33

QTr

1046.9046 m3/s

LIMITE DE CONFIANZA

1.9250837

Se

0.1661176

t(1-) =

1.6448536

Intervalo de Confianza

PROBABILIDAD
LNX
t
F(t)

100 aos

5%

TABLA
[

796.60 ;

:
:
:
:

300 M3/S
5.7037824747
-0.5141307394
0.3

La probabilidad de que el caudal de

no sea excedido es de
30 %.

CION GUMBEL
410.36
359.16
172.37
-0.71
0.42
0.54
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

300 m3/s

1375.9 ] PARA Qtr

E RETORNO

100 aos
3.14

951.02964254 m3/s

ONFIANZA

5%

3.92
132.64654094 m3/s
1.645

DE CONFIANZA

TABLA

732.8 ;

1169.2 ] PARA Qtr

Gumbel

00.00

600.00

700.00

N PEARSON
INTERPOLACION
0.600 2.755
0.540 2.714
0.800 2.891

100 aos

800.00

m3/s

N LOG-PEARSON

E RETORNO

410.36
172.37
0.54
2.57
0.19
-0.216
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42

Interpolacion
-0.200
2.178
-0.216
2.166
-0.400
2.029

26

100 aos
2.166
958.42 m3/s

TRIBUCION GAMMA 3 PARAMETROS

TRIBUCION GAMMA 3 PARAMETROS

TAMBIEN LLAMADO LOG PEARSON III

P(X)

F(z)ordina

lnx

0.04
0.07
0.11
0.15
0.19
0.22
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.37
0.41
0.44

0.18
0.88
0.90
0.06
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.69
0.60
0.46
0.09
0.41

5.53
6.45
6.50
5.25
6.57
5.77
6.58
6.15
6.04
5.89
5.34
5.83

27
14
9
7
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2

0.48

0.02

4.99

0.52

0.40

5.82

0.56

0.93

6.58

0.59

0.32

5.72

0.63

0.36

5.77

0.67
0.70
0.74
0.78

0.43
0.56
0.58
0.78

5.85
5.99
6.02
6.27

2
1
1
1

0.81

0.83

6.34

0.85
0.89
0.93
0.96

0.46
0.72
0.14
0.10

5.88
6.19
5.46
5.38

1
1
1
1

Dist. Pearson
410.36
359.16
172.37

0.42
-0.71

Dist. Log-Pearson
410.36
172.37
0.19

RESULTADOS ESTADSTICOS:
Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
Suma lnx
Escala
Promedio
Forma
Suma
Cuenta

410.36
359.16
172.37
154.15
5.93
4.00
0.44
10669.42
26.00

4.- CALCULO DE Q PARA T (aos):

F(x)

0.9866666667

(TABLA) Z

2.2169

Q (CAUDAL) 988.7771550545

Dist. Ganma 3 Parametros

410.36
359.16
172.37

0.54
577.16

26

0.54
-0.22
577.16

26
3

577.16
5.93
0.44
26

Funcin de densidad-distribucion-normal

03

02

02

01

01

00
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00

Funcion de densidad
distribucion normal

Log Normal
0.00300
0.00250
0.00200
0.00150
0.00100
0.00050
0.00000
100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

Funsion densidad-Distribucin Gamma

1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
100.00

RA T (aos):

200.00

75

.2018

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

700.00

800.00

ESTACIN: LA MEJORADA
CUENCA:
MANTARO
RIO:
MANTARO
AREA CAPTACION:
17472
Km2
ELEVACION:
2819 msnm
AO
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
1980
115.84
161.10
252.84
1981
191.42
0.00
629.58
1982
373.87
664.29
337.29
1983
185.87
113.32
190.94
1984
174.03
715.28
560.87
1985
209.70
277.42
320.82
1986
334.98
610.13
717.93
1987
466.92
0.00
220.97
1988
350.01
418.91
327.18
1989
360.22
300.02
166.21
1990
208.88
155.60
106.11
1991
165.61
156.17
340.48
1992
90.30
66.53
146.74
1993
112.72
299.65
291.49
1994
342.73
723.90
518.09
1995
134.07
155.01
304.89
1996
181.75
321.29
265.12
1997
174.21
346.06
237.03
1998
253.48
335.85
400.22
1999
126.22
411.26
381.56
2000
266.49
489.75
527.11
2001
415.93
403.79
565.84
2002
103.51
279.46
358.10
2003
213.85
360.34
485.92
2004
113.67
235.48
183.17
2005
184.14
186.14
217.27
Promedio
225.02
314.88
348.22
DEV.EST
106.38
202.52
160.58
Mximo
466.92
723.90
717.93
Mnimo
90.30
0.00
106.11

ABRIL
140.67
219.90
229.63
161.53
345.17
317.45
491.67
444.52
325.91
312.23
85.31
160.23
64.05
202.94
429.05
191.62
238.55
89.54
226.22
298.10
288.03
260.37
225.15
310.95
122.28
142.48
243.21
111.24
491.67
64.05

MAYO
81.77
107.39
121.77
96.35
140.23
159.01
143.99
118.06
145.92
151.69
75.81
122.95
47.78
130.20
195.48
84.83
90.27
69.59
64.65
141.71
142.81
121.45
116.12
141.49
82.97
83.89
114.55
34.90
195.48
47.78

FUENTE:

JUNIO
69.17
98.60
103.97
85.03
118.03
136.38
185.84
90.33
118.43
145.67
77.09
85.76
50.19
79.53
139.27
82.74
76.82
69.91
83.74
88.02
102.11
101.05
97.31
105.52
86.07
89.71
98.70
28.53
185.84
50.19

JULIO
72.77
98.13
105.39
91.16
93.23
122.15
143.12
155.64
107.60
134.21
71.45
92.42
48.88
77.50
117.77
83.48
79.02
69.37
83.79
88.92
98.21
96.44
96.21
98.34
81.31
92.54
96.12
23.63
155.64
48.88

AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE

66.45
65.77
91.74
94.20
92.90
99.23
93.23
145.33
94.06
84.00
101.42
174.10
89.48
84.30
78.90
57.67
91.45
97.10
99.74
122.40
112.41
110.03
102.11
96.29
122.33
128.30
115.79
111.24
85.72
90.91
87.77
82.96
95.46
112.32
75.85
88.43
107.79
102.88
101.11
119.04
75.40
72.31
91.15
175.35
93.85
99.46
85.71
81.42
47.10
43.97
45.06
46.10
75.91
68.57
83.94
179.72
107.59
107.68
91.62
88.07
84.99
71.50
68.55
80.21
80.26
79.79
74.82
72.10
73.89
73.92
79.06
83.33
88.88
83.59
82.12
86.62
90.49
94.32
99.36
92.30
101.06
98.36
15.30
97.41
94.93
97.09
102.20
105.15
94.82
94.80
97.22
133.54
100.55
107.74
98.37
94.57
91.91
80.19
83.67
110.40
88.05
81.33
89.87
80.99
90.30
89.59
85.99
103.81
15.15
17.90
20.01
34.17
122.33
128.30
115.79
179.72
47.10
43.97
15.30
46.10

electroperu S.A

DICIEMBRE PROMEDIO
133.21
112.13
293.08
172.40
186.89
214.72
86.09
110.05
266.45
235.33
150.94
176.23
152.60
271.49
152.63
166.37
158.04
193.67
112.80
176.16
185.42
114.99
76.03
130.01
49.31
62.17
338.25
161.70
95.51
246.40
91.78
119.47
101.86
138.47
115.35
123.44
111.96
158.43
132.27
170.38
132.74
196.62
164.74
210.75
232.01
160.69
154.22
189.32
189.18
121.69
93.35
119.15
152.18
163.55
68.42
48.51
338.25
271.49
49.31
62.17

max
252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88
340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29
346.06
400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

min
65.77
0.00
84.00
57.67
91.45
96.29
111.24
0.00
75.85
101.11
71.45
76.03
43.97
68.57
88.07
68.55
72.10
69.37
64.65
88.02
15.30
94.93
94.80
94.57
80.19
80.99