ingreso

ventas
Fila año personal tasa desempleo (%)
(millones)
(millones)

1 2000 8 336.1 5.5

2 2001 8.2 349.4 5.5
3 2002 8.5 362.9 6.7
4 2003 9.2 383.9 5.5
5 2004 10.2 402.8 5.7
6 2005 11.4 437 5.2
7 2006 12.8 472.2 4.5
8 2007 13.6 510.4 3.8
9 2008 14.6 544.5 3.8
10 2009 16.4 588.1 3.6
11 2010 17.8 630.4 3.5
12 2011 18.6 685.9 4.9
13 2012 20 742.8 5.9
14 2013 21.9 801.3 5.6
15 2014 24.9 903.1 4.9
16 2015 27.3 983.6 5.6
 ventas Pronostico Pronostico Pronostico
Fila año (millones) K=2 Error= Y-F K=3 Error= Y-F K=4
1 2000 8
2 2001 8.2
3 2002 8.5 8.1 0.4
4 2003 9.2 8.35 0.85 8.23333333 0.9666667
5 2004 10.2 8.85 1.35 8.63333333 1.5666667 8.475
6 2005 11.4 9.7 1.7 9.3 2.1 9.025
7 2006 12.8 10.8 2 10.2666667 2.5333333 9.825
8 2007 13.6 12.1 1.5 11.4666667 2.1333333 10.9
9 2008 14.6 13.2 1.4 12.6 2 12
10 2009 16.4 14.1 2.3 13.6666667 2.7333333 13.1
11 2010 17.8 15.5 2.3 14.8666667 2.9333333 14.35
12 2011 18.6 17.1 1.5 16.2666667 2.3333333 15.6
13 2012 20 18.2 1.8 17.6 2.4 16.85
14 2013 21.9 19.3 2.6 18.8 3.1 18.2
15 2014 24.9 20.95 3.95 20.1666667 4.7333333 19.575
16 2015 27.3 23.4 3.9 22.2666667 5.0333333 21.35
2016 26.1 1.9678571 24.7 2.6589744 23.525
Error= Y-F

1.725
2.375
2.975
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.45
3
3.15
3.7
5.325
5.95
3.3541667
 ingreso
Pronostico Pronostico Pronostico
Fila año personal Error Y-F Error Y-F
(millones) K=2 K=3 K=4

1 2000 336.1
2 2001 349.4
3 2002 362.9 342.75 20.15
4 2003 383.9 356.15 27.75 349.4666667 34.43333333
5 2004 402.8 373.40 29.40 365.4 37.4 358.075
6 2005 437 393.35 43.65 383.2 53.8 374.75
7 2006 472.2 419.90 52.30 407.9 64.3 396.65
8 2007 510.4 454.60 55.80 437.3333333 73.06666667 423.975
9 2008 544.5 491.30 53.20 473.2 71.3 455.6
10 2009 588.1 527.45 60.65 509.0333333 79.06666667 491.025
11 2010 630.4 566.30 64.10 547.6666667 82.73333333 528.8
12 2011 685.9 609.25 76.65 587.6666667 98.23333333 568.35
13 2012 742.8 658.15 84.65 634.8 108 612.225
14 2013 801.3 714.35 86.95 686.3666667 114.9333333 661.8
15 2014 903.1 772.05 131.05 743.3333333 159.7666667 715.1
16 2015 983.6 852.20 131.40 815.7333333 167.8666667 783.275
2016 943.35 60.48 896 88.06923077 857.7
 Error Y-F

44.725
62.25
75.55
86.425
88.9
97.075
101.6
117.55
130.575
139.5
188
200.325
102.922727273
 tasa
Pronostico Pronostico Pronostico
Fila año desempleo Error Y-F Error Y-F
(%) K=2 K=3 K=4

1 2000 5.5
2 2001 5.5
3 2002 6.7 5.5 1.2
4 2003 5.5 6.1 -0.6 5.9 -0.4
5 2004 5.7 6.1 -0.4 5.9 -0.2 5.8
6 2005 5.2 5.6 -0.4 5.966666667 -0.76666667 5.85
7 2006 4.5 5.45 -0.95 5.466666667 -0.96666667 5.775
8 2007 3.8 4.85 -1.05 5.133333333 -1.33333333 5.225
9 2008 3.8 4.15 -0.35 4.5 -0.7 4.8
10 2009 3.6 3.8 -0.2 4.033333333 -0.43333333 4.325
11 2010 3.5 3.7 -0.2 3.733333333 -0.23333333 3.925
12 2011 4.9 3.55 1.35 3.633333333 1.266666667 3.675
13 2012 5.9 4.2 1.7 4 1.9 3.95
14 2013 5.6 5.4 0.2 4.766666667 0.833333333 4.475
15 2014 4.9 5.75 -0.85 5.466666667 -0.56666667 4.975
16 2015 5.6 5.25 0.35 5.466666667 0.133333333 5.325
2016 5.25 -0.01428571 5.366666667 -0.11282051 5.5
 Error Y-F

-0.1
-0.65
-1.275
-1.425
-1
-0.725
-0.425
1.225
1.95
1.125
-0.075
0.275
-0.09166667
 ventas K=2 Pronostico K=3 Pronostico
Fila año Ventas (millones) Error Y-F Ventas (millones)
(millones) A1=3, A2=1 A1=7 , A2=5 , A3=2

1 2000 8
2 2001 8.2
3 2002 8.5 8.15 0.35
4 2003 9.2 8.425 0.775 8.3214285714286
5 2004 10.2 9.025 1.175 8.8071428571429
6 2005 11.4 9.95 1.45 9.6
7 2006 12.8 11.1 1.7 10.657142857143
8 2007 13.6 12.45 1.15 11.928571428572
9 2008 14.6 13.4 1.2 13
10 2009 16.4 14.35 2.05 13.985714285714
11 2010 17.8 15.95 1.85 15.357142857143
12 2011 18.6 17.45 1.15 16.842857142857
13 2012 20 18.4 1.6 18
14 2013 21.9 19.65 2.25 19.185714285714
15 2014 24.9 21.425 3.475 20.75
16 2015 27.3 24.15 3.15 23.128571428572
26.7 1.66607142857 25.671428571429

A1= 3
K=2
A2= 1
A1= 7
K=3 A2= 5
A3= 2
A1= 6
A2= 4
K=4
A3= 2
A4= 1
 K=4 Pronostico
Ventas (millones)
Error Y-F Error Y-F
A1=6 , A2=4 ,
A3=2 , A4=1

0.87857142857
1.39285714286 8.73846153846154 1.461538461538
1.8 9.47692307692308 1.923076923077
2.14285714286 10.4692307692308 2.330769230769
1.67142857143 11.6923076923077 1.907692307692
1.6 12.7538461538462 1.846153846154
2.41428571429 13.7692307692308 2.630769230769
2.44285714286 15.1384615384615 2.661538461538
1.75714285714 16.5538461538462 2.046153846154
2 17.7076923076923 2.292307692308
2.71428571429 18.9538461538462 2.946153846154
4.15 20.4923076923077 4.407692307692
4.17142857143 22.7384615384615 4.561538461538
2.24120879121 25.1692307692308 2.584615384615
 K=3 Ingreso K=4 Ingreso
K=2 Ingreso Personal Personal
ingreso (millones)
Fila año personal
Personal Error Y-F (millones) Error Y-F A1=6 ,
(millones) (millones) A1=7 ,
A1=3, A2=1 A2=5 , A2=4 ,
A3=2 ,
A3=2 A4=1

1 2000 336.1
2 2001 349.4
3 2002 362.9 346.075 16.825
4 2003 383.9 359.525 24.375 354.25 29.65
5 2004 402.8 378.65 24.15 371.471429 31.3285714 368.453846
6 2005 437 398.075 38.925 390.35 46.65 386.738462
7 2006 472.2 428.45 43.75 417.2 55 412.607692
8 2007 510.4 463.4 47 449.714286 60.6857143 443.9
9 2008 544.5 500.85 43.65 486.271429 58.2285714 479.076923
10 2009 588.1 535.975 52.125 521.992857 66.1071429 514.615385
11 2010 630.4 577.2 53.2 561.428571 68.9714286 553.815385
12 2011 685.9 619.825 66.075 603.021429 82.8785714 594.938462
13 2012 742.8 672.025 70.775 652.107143 90.6928571 642.9
14 2013 801.3 728.575 72.725 706.421429 94.8785714 696.1
15 2014 903.1 786.675 116.425 763.921429 139.178571 752.4
16 2015 983.6 877.65 105.95 843.842857 139.757143 830.407692
963.475 55.425 928.807143 74.1543956 912.261538

A1= 3
K=2
A2= 1
A1= 7
K=3 A2= 5
A3= 2
A1= 6
A2= 4
K=4
A3= 2
A4= 1
Error Y-F

34.3461538
50.2615385
59.5923077
66.5
65.4230769
73.4846154
76.5846154
90.9615385
99.9
105.2
150.7
153.192308
85.5121795
 K=3 Tasa K=4Tasa
K=2 Tasa Desempleo
tasa Desempleo Desempleo (%) A1=6 ,
Fila año desempleo Error Y-F (%) A1=7 , Error Y-F
(%) (%) A1=3, A2=5 , A2=4 ,
A2=1 A3=2 ,
A3=2
A4=1

1 2000 5.5
2 2001 5.5
3 2002 6.7 5.5 1.2
4 2003 5.5 6.4 -0.9 6.1 -0.6
5 2004 5.7 5.8 -0.1 5.92857143 -0.22857143 5.86923077
6 2005 5.2 5.65 -0.45 5.77142857 -0.57142857 5.77692308
7 2006 4.5 5.325 -0.825 5.42142857 -0.92142857 5.51538462
8 2007 3.8 4.675 -0.875 4.92142857 -1.12142857 4.97692308
9 2008 3.8 3.975 -0.175 4.25 -0.45 4.37692308
10 2009 3.6 3.8 -0.2 3.9 -0.3 4.01538462
11 2010 3.5 3.65 -0.15 3.7 -0.2 3.76153846
12 2011 4.9 3.525 1.375 3.57857143 1.32142857 3.6
13 2012 5.9 4.55 1.35 4.21428571 1.68571429 4.18461538
14 2013 5.6 5.65 -0.05 5.2 0.4 5.04615385
15 2014 4.9 5.675 -0.775 5.60714286 -0.70714286 5.42307692
16 2015 5.6 5.075 0.525 5.29285714 0.30714286 5.26923077
5.425 -0.00357143 5.35 -0.10659341 5.40769231
A1= 3
K=2
A2= 1
A1= 7
K=3 A2= 5
A3= 2
A1= 6
A2= 4
K=4
A3= 2
A4= 1
 Error Y-F

-0.16923077
-0.57692308
-1.01538462
-1.17692308
-0.57692308
-0.41538462
-0.26153846
1.3
1.71538462
0.55384615
-0.52307692
0.33076923
-0.06794872
 Fila año ventas α*Y(anterior) (1-α)*F(Anterior) F Error = Y-F
(millones) Pronostico

1 2000 8 8 0
2 2001 8.2 7.2 0.8 8 0.2
3 2002 8.5 7.38 0.8 8.18 0.32
4 2003 9.2 7.65 0.818 8.468 0.732
5 2004 10.2 8.28 0.8468 9.1268 1.0732
6 2005 11.4 9.18 0.91268 10.09268 1.30732
7 2006 12.8 10.26 1.009268 11.269268 1.530732
8 2007 13.6 11.52 1.1269268 12.6469268 0.9530732
9 2008 14.6 12.24 1.26469268 13.5046927 1.09530732
10 2009 16.4 13.14 1.350469268 14.4904693 1.90953073
11 2010 17.8 14.76 1.4490469268 16.2090469 1.59095307
12 2011 18.6 16.02 1.62090469268 17.6409047 0.95909531
13 2012 20 16.74 1.764090469268 18.5040905 1.49590953
14 2013 21.9 18 1.8504090469268 19.850409 2.04959095
15 2014 24.9 19.71 1.98504090469268 21.6950409 3.2049591
16 2015 27.3 22.41 2.16950409046927 24.5795041 2.72049591
24.57 2.45795040904693 27.0279504 1.32138545
α= 0.9
1-α= 0.1
 ingreso F
Fila año personal α*Y(anterior) (1-α)*F(Anterior) Error = Y-F
(millones) Pronostico

1 2000 336.1 336.1 0

2 2001 349.4 302.49 33.61 336.1 13.3
3 2002 362.9 314.46 33.61 348.07 14.83
4 2003 383.9 326.61 34.807 361.417 22.483
5 2004 402.8 345.51 36.1417 381.6517 21.1483
6 2005 437 362.52 38.16517 400.68517 36.31483
7 2006 472.2 393.3 40.068517 433.368517 38.831483
8 2007 510.4 424.98 43.3368517 468.316852 42.0831483
9 2008 544.5 459.36 46.83168517 506.191685 38.3083148
10 2009 588.1 490.05 50.619168517 540.669169 47.4308315
11 2010 630.4 529.29 54.0669168517 583.356917 47.0430831
12 2011 685.9 567.36 58.33569168517 625.695692 60.2043083
13 2012 742.8 617.31 62.569569168517 679.879569 62.9204308
14 2013 801.3 668.52 67.9879569168517 736.507957 64.7920431
15 2014 903.1 721.17 73.6507956916852 794.820796 108.279204
16 2015 983.6 812.79 79.4820795691685 892.27208 91.3279204
885.24 89.2272079569169 974.467208 44.3310561

α= 0.9
1-α= 0.1
 tasa F
Fila año desempleo α*Y(anterior) (1-α)*F(Anterior) Error = Y-F
(%) Pronostico

1 2000 5.5 5.5 0

2 2001 5.5 4.95 0.55 5.5 0
3 2002 6.7 4.95 0.55 5.5 1.2
4 2003 5.5 6.03 0.55 6.58 -1.08
5 2004 5.7 4.95 0.658 5.608 0.092
6 2005 5.2 5.13 0.5608 5.6908 -0.4908
7 2006 4.5 4.68 0.56908 5.24908 -0.74908
8 2007 3.8 4.05 0.524908 4.574908 -0.774908
9 2008 3.8 3.42 0.4574908 3.8774908 -0.0774908
10 2009 3.6 3.42 0.38774908 3.80774908 -0.20774908
11 2010 3.5 3.24 0.380774908 3.620774908 -0.12077491
12 2011 4.9 3.15 0.3620774908 3.512077491 1.38792251
13 2012 5.9 4.41 0.35120774908 4.761207749 1.13879225
14 2013 5.6 5.31 0.476120774908 5.786120775 -0.18612077
15 2014 4.9 5.04 0.5786120774908 5.618612077 -0.71861208
16 2015 5.6 4.41 0.56186120774908 4.971861208 0.62813879
5.04 0.497186120774908 5.537186121 0.00258237

α= 0.9
1-α= 0.1
T ventas
año
Fila (millones)
1 2000 8
2 2001 8.2
3 2002 8.5
4 2003 9.2
5 2004 10.2
6 2005 11.4
7 2006 12.8
8 2007 13.6
9 2008 14.6
10 2009 16.4
11 2010 17.8
12 2011 18.6
13 2012 20
14 2013 21.9
15 2014 24.9
16 2015 27.3