Cálculo de la tasa de descuento para SOBOCE

CAPM re = rf + β(Erm - rf)

MM wacc = rd (1-tx) D/V + re E/V
deuda rd = rf + ppd
re 10.96% rf
rd 5% TGN MV
rf 4% 1 3.20%
βl 0.72
(Erm - rf) 10.88% 2 Calif riesgo país Bolivia
tx 31% 3 S&P
ppd 0.65% 8 Moodys
wacc 7.97%
D/V 39% A
E/V 61% D
D/E 63% 4 E
βu 0.50 Ut
D/E* 40% 6 ROE
βl* 0.64 5 ROA
t* 31% 7 ROC
t
Flujos de caja para SOBOCE
FCFF 84,770,056
EBIT*(1-t) - (I - Dep) - cambios en el capital de trabajo no efectivo

EBIT 72,382,418
t 31%
I 51,920,144
Dep 54,864,687
Δwk (31,881,645)
Act. Corr. 156,779,003
Pas. Corr. 188,660,648

tc
T 2009 2010 2011
EBITDA Bs. 127,247,104 134,311,205 141,767,468
(dep) 54,864,687 54,864,687 54,864,687
EBIT 72,382,417 79,446,518 86,902,781
(Gi) 48,105,525 48,105,525 48,105,525
ut. antes de t 24,276,892 31,340,993 38,797,256
(t) 21,293,405 9,715,708 12,027,149
Ut. Neta 2,983,487 21,625,285 26,770,107
dep 54,864,687 54,864,687 54,864,687
Flujo de caja de operaciones 57,848,174 76,489,972 81,634,794
(pago dividendos) 53,709,929 53,709,929 53,709,929
(gastos de capital) 51,920,144 51,920,144 51,920,144
(Δwk) (31,881,645) (31,881,645) (31,881,645)
(amortizaciones) 263,814,425 263,814,425 263,814,425
emisión de deuda 289,728,253 289,728,253 289,728,253
FCFE 10,013,574 28,655,372 33,800,194
i*(1-t) 33,192,812 33,192,812 33,192,812
pagos principal 263,814,425 263,814,425 263,814,425
(emisión de deuda) 289,728,253 289,728,253 289,728,253
pago dividendos 53,709,929 53,709,929 53,709,929
FCFF 71,002,487 89,644,285 94,789,107

Valor terminal Bs. FCFF

4,383,384,836
VA en Bs. FCFF V SOBOCE
363,938,521 D SOBOCE
VA SOBOCE Bs. VA SOBOCE USD E SOBOCE
3,351,537,491 488,562,316

VA equity terminal Bs. FCFE

830,836,703
VA en Bs. FCFE
109,640,089
VA en Bs. Equity SOBOCE VA en USD. Equity SOBOCE
603,519,374 87,976,585
 TGN UFV BCB directo
2.75% 4%

iesgo país Bolivia Total ERP CRP

BB-
10.88% 4.88%
Ba3

1,789,935,011 i 7.90%
608,651,824 Gi 48,105,525
967,488,016 ROE´ 1.73%
206,577,550 b 26.00%
21.35% dividendos 53,709,929
11.54% tasa de reinversión del E -25%
3.17% tasa de crecimiento de Ut. -5.40%
21,293,405

FCFE 10,013,574
Ingreso neto - (I - Dep) - cambios en el capital de trab

IN = EBIT - Imptos 51,089,013

pagos principal 263,814,425
Nueva deuda 289,728,253
Pago div. 53,709,929
Imptos. 21,293,405

FCFE apalancada en el óptimo

IN - (1-δ)*(I - Dep) - (1-δ)*Δwk
δ 63%

6.86
2012 2013
149,637,664 157,944,773
54,864,687 54,864,687
94,772,977 103,080,086
48,105,525 48,105,525
46,667,452 54,974,561
14,466,910 17,042,114
32,200,542 37,932,447
54,864,687 54,864,687
 87,065,229 92,797,134
53,709,929 53,709,929
51,920,144 51,920,144
(31,881,645) (31,881,645)
263,814,425 263,814,425
289,728,253 289,728,253
39,230,629 44,962,534
33,192,812 33,192,812
263,814,425 263,814,425
289,728,253 289,728,253
53,709,929 53,709,929
100,219,542 105,951,448

Bs. USD
3,351,537,491 488,562,316
608,651,824 88,724,756
2,742,885,667 399,837,561
 gEPS 5.55%
gEPS´ 0.45%
gEBIT -2.21%

mbios en el capital de trabajo no efectivo -(amortizaciones - nueva deuda) -pago div. pref.

64,005,862.07