A Mês X Trocas (y) X^2 X*Y Y^2

Maio 1 21 1 21 441
Junho 2 26 4 52 676
Julho 3 37 9 111 1369
Agosto 4 32 16 128 1024
Setembro 5 39 25 195 1521
Outubro 6 31 36 186 961
Novembro 7 40 49 280 1600
Dezembro 8 42 64 336 1764
Soma 36 268 204 1309 9356

b 2.4523809524 9 Janeiro 44.53571429

a 22.464285714 10 Fevereiro 46.98809524
r 0.8174603175 11 Março 49.44047619
r^2 0.6682413706
B Mês X Trocas (y) X^2 X*Y Y^2
Maio 1 21 1 21 441
Junho 2 26 4 52 676
Julho 3 37 9 111 1369
Agosto 4 32 16 128 1024
Setembro 5 39 25 195 1521
Outubro 6 31 36 186 961 45
Novembro 7 40 49 280 1600 40 f(x) = 2.4
R² = 0.66
Dezembro 8 42 64 336 1764 35
Janeiro 9 41 81 369 1681
30
Soma 45 309 285 1678 11037
25

b 3.5625 Fevereiro 10 52.14583 20

a 16.52083 Março 11 55.70833 15

r 0.829954 10
r^2 0.688824 5
0
0 1 2
 Trocas (y)
45
40 f(x) = 2.45238095238095 x + 22.4642857142857
R² = 0.668241370622323
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
 A
Mês N de câmeras Média 3 Erro Demanda 7
1 12 Media Ponderada 21.4
2 16
3 15
4 21 14.33333 6.666667
5 19 17.33333 1.666667 C
6 23 18.33333 4.666667 O melhor método adotado seria o da alternativa A levando
7 Soma= 13

B
Mês N de câmeras Ma=0,2 Erro
1 12
2 16 15 1
3 15 15.2 -0.2
4 21 15.16 5.84
5 19 16.328 2.672
6 23 16.8624 6.1376
7 18.08992
Soma= 15.4496
 C
da alternativa A levando em consideração o erro
 2
Mês Periodo Ano 1 Ano 2 Média ft St Previsão Erro
Janeiro 1 144 153 148.5 2.245747 153 343.5992 -195.09924386
Fevereiro 2 120 142 131 1.981096 126.9375 251.4754 -120.47542533
Março 3 98 104 101 1.52741 108.6938 166.0199 -65.019943289
Abril 4 47 55 51 0.771267 95.92313 73.9823 -22.982296786
Maio 5 75 79 77 1.164461 86.98369 101.2891 -24.28913327
Junho 6 25 28 26.5 0.400756 80.72608 32.35147 -5.8514730151
Julho 7 29 33 31 0.468809 76.34576 35.79158 -4.7915835633
Agosto 8 35 41 38 0.574669 73.27953 42.11149 -4.1114878318
Setembro 9 60 62 61 0.922495 71.13317 65.62001 -4.6200139583
Outubro 10 49 54 51.5 0.778828 69.63072 54.23035 -2.7303525114
Novembro 11 41 47 44 0.665406 68.579 45.63291 -1.6329098515
Dezembro 12 30 36 33 0.499055 67.8428 33.85728 -0.857277672
Média 66.125 1245.961

1) Considerando que janeiro, fevereiro e março são férias, além das datas festivas como o carnaval a demanda seria maior nesses
Maio seria o mês das mães, então geralmente tem um aumento para as pessoas visitarem suas familías, comparado a abril, junho
agosto. Setembro tem o black friday do Paraguai, então isso pode demonstrar um aumento no aluguél de carros, enquanto nos o
demontra uma dimunuição.
 Erro abs Chart Title
195.09924386 Alfa 0.3 160
120.47542533
140
65.019943289
22.982296786 120
f(x) = − 8.61013986013986 x + 122.090909090909
24.28913327 100 R² = 0.589626955761421
5.8514730151
80
4.7915835633
4.1114878318 60

4.6200139583 40
2.7303525114
20
1.6329098515
0.857277672 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
MAD 37.7051

al a demanda seria maior nesses períodos.

milías, comparado a abril, junho, julho, Chart Title
uguél de carros, enquanto nos outros meses
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ano 1 Ano 2
90909

10 12 14

0 11 12
 Dia Vendas X^2 Y^2 XY D. Prev Erro Erro abs Erro^2
1 14 1 196 14 19.87957 -5.87957 5.87957 34.56934
2 22 4 484 44 24.06489 -2.064887 2.064887 4.263758
3 28 9 784 84 28.2502 -0.250204 0.250204 0.062602
4 33 16 1089 132 32.43552 0.564479 0.564479 0.318637
5 32 25 1024 160 36.62084 -4.620838 4.620838 21.35214
6 39 36 1521 234 40.80615 -1.806155 1.806155 3.262196
7 46 49 2116 322 44.99147 1.008528 1.008528 1.017129
8 44 64 1936 352 49.17679 -5.176789 5.176789 26.79914
9 49 81 2401 441 53.36211 -4.362106 4.362106 19.02797
10 55 100 3025 550 57.54742 -2.547423 2.547423 6.489364
11 75 121 5625 825 61.73274 13.26726 13.26726 176.0202
12 68 144 4624 816 65.91806 2.081943 2.081943 4.334486
13 80 169 6400 1040 70.10337 9.896626 9.896626 97.9432
14 82 196 6724 1148 74.28869 7.711309 7.711309 59.46428
15 76 225 5776 1140 78.47401 -2.474008 2.474008 6.120716
16 88 256 7744 1408 82.65933 5.340675 5.340675 28.52281
17 90 289 8100 1530 86.84464 3.155358 3.155358 9.956283
18 93 324 8649 1674 91.02996 1.970041 1.970041 3.881061
19 98 361 9604 1862 95.21528 2.784724 2.784724 7.754686
20 100 400 10000 2000 99.40059 0.599407 0.599407 0.359288
21 101 441 10201 2121 103.5859 -2.58591 2.58591 6.686932
22 105 484 11025 2310 107.7712 -2.771227 2.771227 7.679701
23 110 529 12100 2530 111.9565 -1.956544 1.956544 3.828066
24 109 576 11881 2616 116.1419 -7.141861 7.141861 51.00618
25 121 625 14641 3025 120.3272 0.672822 0.672822 0.452689
26 124 676 15376 3224 124.5125 -0.512495 0.512495 0.262651
27 127 729 16129 3429 128.6978 -1.697812 1.697812 2.882567
28 133 784 17689 3724 132.8831 0.116871 0.116871 0.013659
29 135 841 18225 3915 137.0684 -2.068446 2.068446 4.278471
30 140 900 19600 4200 141.2538 -1.253763 1.253763 1.571923

Soma 465 2417 9455 234689 46870

a 15.6942528736 31 145.4391
b 4.18531701891 32 149.6244
33 153.8097
34 157.995
35 162.1803
36 166.3657
37 170.551
Erro %
0.419969
0.093858
0.008936
0.017105
0.144401
0.046312
Vendas
0.021925
0.117654 160
0.089023
0.046317 140
f(x) = 4.1853170189099 x + 15.6942528735632
0.176897 R² = 0.985230443384804
0.030617 120
0.123708
0.09404 100
0.032553
0.060689 80
0.03506
0.021183 60
0.028416
0.005994 40
0.025603
0.026393 20
0.017787
0.065522 0
0 5 10 15 20
0.005561
0.004133
0.013369
0.000879
0.015322
0.008955
MAD 3.278003
MSE 19.67274
MAPE 0.059939
endas

20 25 30 35
 Maxim Média móvel
Período D. Real mm3 Erro mm6 erro mm12 erro
1 4,270
2 4,891
3 5,339
4 6,042 4,833 1,209
5 5,593 5,424 169
6 4,035 5,658 -1,623
7 4,445 5,223 -778 5,028 -583
8 5,141 4,691 450 5,058 84
9 5,726 4,540 1,186 5,099 627
10 6,480 5,104 1,376 5,164 1,316
11 6,057 5,782 275 5,237 820
12 4,242 6,088 -1,846 5,314 -1,072
13 4,707 5,593 -886 5,349 -642 5,188 -481
14 5,444 5,002 442 5,392 52 5,225 219
15 6,125 4,798 1,327 5,443 682 5,271 854
16 6,795 5,425 1,370 5,509 1,286 5,336 1,459
17 6,103 6,121 -18 5,562 541 5,399 704
18 4,537 6,341 -1,804 5,569 -1,032 5,442 -905
19 4,926 5,812 -886 5,619 -693 5,484 -558
20 5,697 5,189 508 5,655 42 5,524 173
21 6,221 5,053 1,168 5,697 524 5,570 651
22 7,040 5,615 1,425 5,713 1,327 5,611 1,429
23 6,386 6,319 67 5,754 632 5,658 728
24 4,747 6,549 -1,802 5,801 -1,054 5,685 -938
25 4,993 6,058 -1,065 5,836 -843 5,727 -734
26 5,775 5,375 400 5,847 -72 5,751 24
27 6,496 5,172 1,324 5,860 636 5,779 717
28 7,499 5,755 1,744 5,906 1,593 5,810 1,689
29 6,873 6,590 283 5,983 890 5,868 1,005
30 4,812 6,956 -2,144 6,064 -1,252 5,933 -1,121
31 5,257 6,395 -1,138 6,075 -818 5,955 -698
32 6,081 5,647 434 6,119 -38 5,983 98
33 6,772 5,383 1,389 6,170 602 6,015 757
34 7,664 6,037 1,627 6,216 1,448 6,061 1,603
35 7,023 6,839 184 6,243 780 6,113 910
36 5,118 7,153 -2,035 6,268 -1,150 6,166 -1,048
soma 2,332 4,634 6,537
 Piquet Média móvel
Período D. Real mm3 erro mm6 erro mm12 erro
1 7,298
2 7,017
3 7,298
4 7,298 7,204 94
5 7,017 7,204 -187
6 7,087 7,204 -117
7 6,736 7,134 -398 7,169 -433
8 7,087 6,947 140 7,076 12
9 6,736 6,970 -234 7,087 -351
10 7,157 6,853 304 6,994 164
11 7,298 6,993 305 6,970 328
12 6,877 7,064 -187 7,017 -140
13 7,017 7,111 -94 6,982 35 7,076 -59
14 6,877 7,064 -187 7,029 -152 7,052 -175
15 7,228 6,924 304 6,994 234 7,040 188
16 6,806 7,041 -235 7,076 -270 7,035 -229
17 7,157 6,970 187 7,017 140 6,994 163
18 7,228 7,064 164 6,994 234 7,005 223
19 6,947 7,064 -117 7,052 -105 7,017 -70
20 7,087 7,111 -24 7,041 47 7,035 52
21 6,806 7,087 -281 7,076 -270 7,035 -229
22 6,806 6,947 -141 7,005 -199 7,040 -234
23 6,947 6,900 47 7,005 -58 7,011 -64
24 6,736 6,853 -117 6,970 -234 6,982 -246
25 7,157 6,830 327 6,888 269 6,970 187
26 6,877 6,947 -70 6,923 -46 6,982 -105
27 7,157 6,923 234 6,888 269 6,982 175
28 7,157 7,064 93 6,947 210 6,976 181
29 6,877 7,064 -187 7,005 -128 7,005 -128
30 6,736 7,064 -328 6,994 -258 6,982 -246
31 7,228 6,923 305 6,994 235 6,941 287
32 6,806 6,947 -141 7,005 -199 6,964 -158
33 7,228 6,923 305 6,994 235 6,941 287
34 6,736 7,087 -351 7,005 -269 6,976 -240
35 6,736 6,923 -187 6,935 -199 6,970 -234
36 7,087 6,900 187 6,912 175 6,953 134
Soma -586 -726 -538
 Colmeia Média móvel
Período D. Real mm3 erro mm6 erro mm12 erro
1 7,156
2 7,717
3 7,460
4 7,205 7,444 -239
5 7,245 7,461 -216
6 7,503 7,303 200
7 7,540 7,318 222 7,381 159
8 7,505 7,429 76 7,445 60
9 7,397 7,516 -119 7,410 -13
10 7,219 7,481 -262 7,399 -180
11 6,829 7,374 -545 7,402 -573
12 7,080 7,148 -68 7,332 -252
13 6,764 7,043 -279 7,262 -498 7,321 -557
14 6,942 6,891 51 7,132 -190 7,289 -347
15 6,978 6,929 49 7,039 -61 7,224 -246
16 7,083 6,895 188 6,969 114 7,184 -101
17 6,841 7,001 -160 6,946 -105 7,174 -333
18 6,945 6,967 -22 6,948 -3 7,140 -195
19 6,842 6,956 -114 6,926 -84 7,094 -252
20 6,808 6,876 -68 6,939 -131 7,035 -227
21 6,571 6,865 -294 6,916 -345 6,977 -406
22 6,807 6,740 67 6,848 -41 6,909 -102
23 6,639 6,729 -90 6,802 -163 6,874 -235
24 6,672 6,672 0 6,769 -97 6,858 -186
25 6,372 6,706 -334 6,723 -351 6,824 -452
26 6,538 6,561 -23 6,645 -107 6,792 -254
27 6,833 6,527 306 6,600 233 6,758 75
28 6,732 6,581 151 6,644 89 6,746 -14
29 6,372 6,701 -329 6,631 -259 6,717 -345
30 6,727 6,646 81 6,587 141 6,678 49
31 6,434 6,610 -176 6,596 -162 6,659 -225
32 6,272 6,511 -239 6,606 -334 6,625 -353
33 6,621 6,478 143 6,562 59 6,581 40
34 6,459 6,442 17 6,526 -67 6,585 -126
35 6,361 6,451 -90 6,481 -120 6,556 -195
36 6,327 6,480 -153 6,479 -152 6,533 -206
soma -2,269 -3,432 -5,193
 Maxim
Período D. Real dmédio ft FT médio St tt ft Previsão
1 4,270 5,028 0.855523 F1 0.8511 0.855523
2 4,891 0.972009 F2 0.9756 0.972009
3 5,339 1.052518 F3 1.0753 1.052518
4 6,042 1.181613 F4 1.2081 1.181613
5 5,593 1.085156 F5 1.0992 1.085156
6 4,035 0.776731 F6 0.7888 0.776731
7 4,445 5,349 0.848996 5,196 0.8032 0.855523 4445.687
8 5,141 0.974348 5,233 8.2106 0.9782 5127.431
9 5,726 1.076903 5,321 24.0974 1.066659 5701.54
10 6,480 1.209441 5,401 35.2010 1.192545 6482.619
11 6,057 1.121958 5,494 46.8597 1.095518 6070.381
12 4,242 0.779873 5,509 40.4792 0.772683 4288.145
13 4,707 5,619 0.858926 5,547 40.0404 0.851305 4756.689
14 5,444 0.986081 5,587 40.0241 0.975876 5491.714
15 6,125 1.101302 5,652 44.8348 1.076931 6134.583
16 6,795 1.212884 5,665 38.5899 1.196683 6825.552
17 6,103 1.081498 5,598 17.4597 1.092325 6133.988
18 4,537 0.798227 5,696 33.6262 0.786957 4509.257
19 4,926 5,836 0.860497 5,732 34.0322 0.856151 4936.615
20 5,697 0.988145 5,771 34.9414 0.982698 5705.093
21 6,221 1.07146 5,743 22.3994 1.08073 6230.66
22 7,040 1.204068 5,781 25.5286 1.209358 7022.025
23 6,386 1.084653 5,846 33.3978 1.09238 6422.268
24 4,747 0.800729 5,906 38.8203 0.797017 4738.33
25 4,993 6,075 0.836475 5,888 27.4105 0.851255 5035.552
26 5,775 0.960923 5,887 21.7177 0.981666 5800.368
27 6,496 1.073613 5,970 34.0424 1.085121 6515.463
28 7,499 1.231091 6,094 51.9378 1.222096 7510.727
29 6,873 1.120824 6,222 67.2027 1.099719 6916.465
30 4,812 0.779543 6,177 44.8201 0.786188 4891.831
31 5,257 6,319 0.846048 6,247 49.8197 0.845399 5323.506
32 6,081 0.972284 6,310 52.3206 0.970934 6176.943
33 6,772 1.075758 6,340 47.9861 1.074913 6866.728
34 7,664 1.209625 6,323 34.9626 1.216082 7731.866
35 7,023 1.101371 6,321 27.5957 1.106504 7024.942
36 5,118 0.797526 6,435 44.9245 0.791647 5130.145
Média 5,704
tt 40.75 Alfa 0.4
Ciclo Sazonal 6 st 6,417 Beta 0.2
Gama 0.6
 Piquet
Período D. Real dmédio ft FT médio St tt ft Previsão
1 7,298 7,169 1.031196 F1 1.0065 1.031196
2 7,017 0.992036 F2 0.9919 0.992036
3 7,298 1.03233 F3 1.0092 1.03233
4 7,298 1.032898 F4 0.9979 1.032898
5 7,017 0.993675 F5 1.0002 0.993675
6 7,087 1.00414 F6 0.9941 1.00414
7 6,736 6,982 0.954934 6,532 -525.5540 1.031196 6194.051
8 7,087 1.005248 6,689 -47.9193 1.052753 6991.426
9 6,736 0.955988 6,595 -80.4107 1.022521 6660.966
10 7,157 1.016299 6,680 35.7298 1.067531 7169.437
11 7,298 1.036893 6,967 211.7243 1.042082 7481.16
12 6,877 0.977618 7,047 119.2109 0.978717 7013.58
13 7,017 7,052 0.998072 7,239 170.1856 0.975529 7227.795
14 6,877 0.9787 7,182 11.1434 0.967067 6956.154
15 7,228 1.029222 7,340 114.1043 0.988503 7368.536
16 6,806 0.969669 7,151 -97.9634 0.963299 6794.454
17 7,157 1.020242 6,993 -140.2345 1.025324 7026.235
18 7,228 1.030935 7,069 11.1849 1.018114 7208.443
19 6,947 6,888 0.991406 7,032 -22.3520 0.986638 6916.266
20 7,087 1.011947 7,102 42.4131 0.994748 7107.345
21 6,806 0.972363 6,932 -106.5773 0.982488 6705.922
22 6,806 0.972903 6,903 -52.4136 0.983706 6738.789
23 6,947 0.993611 6,834 -63.9618 1.017426 6887.921
24 6,736 0.963969 6,676 -130.0633 1.009965 6610.684
25 7,157 6,994 1.024787 6,815 58.5407 1.043844 7174.79
26 6,877 0.985244 6,842 36.8072 1.004028 6906.901
27 7,157 1.02593 7,072 171.5515 1.009107 7309.198
28 7,157 1.026502 7,288 203.2185 0.982136 7357.86
29 6,877 0.986893 7,264 43.4855 0.953852 6969.786
30 6,736 0.967198 7,179 -45.8932 0.945424 6744.096
31 7,228 6,970 1.038423 7,101 -68.3600 1.02044 7176.709
32 6,806 0.978342 6,983 -103.3651 0.977597 6725.458
33 7,228 1.039584 6,946 -56.9595 1.037466 7147.02
34 6,736 0.969364 6,758 -148.4705 0.995259 6578.379
35 6,736 0.969906 6,696 -88.0620 1.00076 6612.972
36 7,087 1.021018 6,896 113.3690 1.019509 7145.818
média 7,009
tt -3.888889 Alfa 0.6
Ciclo sazonal 6 st 6,941 Beta 0.7
Gama 0.9
 Colmeia
Período D. Real dmédio ft FT médio St tt ft Previsão
1 7,156 7,381 0.964688 F1 0.9842 1.011131
2 7,717 1.044618 F2 1.0038 1.090999
3 7,460 1.014023 F3 1.0114 1.055246
4 7,205 0.983446 F4 1.0075 1.019736
5 7,245 0.993048 F5 0.9821 1.025962
6 7,503 1.032736 F6 1.0099 1.063082
7 7,540 7,262 1.042212 7,816 550.8340 0.978621 8187.958
8 7,505 1.041774 7,776 432.5950 1.002935 8232.329
9 7,397 1.031156 7,751 341.2420 0.984563 7967.785
10 7,219 1.010648 7,717 266.0222 0.960781 7669.561
11 6,829 0.960156 7,430 155.4397 0.951191 7214.936
12 7,080 0.999741 7,220 82.4810 1.005316 7341.674
13 6,764 6,926 0.959259 6,896 1.2002 0.980143 6760.678
14 6,942 0.988787 6,781 -22.2012 1.017539 6876.972
15 6,978 0.998259 6,763 -21.3289 1.017644 6860.415
16 7,083 1.017729 6,875 5.3618 1.00942 6945.1
17 6,841 0.987292 7,003 29.8220 0.969205 6815.842
18 6,945 1.006741 6,990 21.2610 0.997128 6990.729
19 6,842 6,723 0.996222 7,072 33.4336 0.971303 6901.265
20 6,808 0.995702 6,995 11.4378 0.986531 6912.244
21 6,571 0.965353 6,795 -30.9785 0.982263 6643.597
22 6,807 1.004534 6,726 -38.4925 1.011257 6762.779
23 6,639 0.984179 6,706 -34.7967 0.98377 6562.907
24 6,672 0.993572 6,649 -39.1819 1.001533 6620.205
25 6,372 6,596 0.953234 6,503 -60.5728 0.977277 6296.153
26 6,538 0.982559 6,504 -48.2049 0.999577 6453.448
27 6,833 1.03163 6,767 14.0009 1.001485 6791.276
28 6,732 1.021092 6,741 6.0416 1.0024 6763.647
29 6,372 0.970988 6,611 -21.2608 0.969831 6390.875
30 6,727 1.029879 6,680 -3.1766 1.005374 6712.809
31 6,434 6,412 0.989652 6,713 4.0961 0.964062 6475.973
32 6,272 0.969289 6,550 -29.3090 0.970126 6326.243
33 6,621 1.028079 6,470 -39.6141 1.016835 6538.158
34 6,459 1.007705 6,378 -50.0468 1.009638 6388.687
35 6,361 0.99717 6,439 -27.7109 0.982429 6299.009
36 6,327 0.996613 6,278 -54.5340 1.007126 6267.365
média 6,883
tt -30.55556 Alfa 0.5
ciclo sazonal 6 st 6,349 Beta 0.2
Gama 0.7
Erro Erro Abs Erro^2 Erro Perc.

-0.6871 0.68712624423 0.4721 0.000155

13.5687 13.5686756913 184.1090 0.002639
24.4598 24.4598121926 598.2824 0.004272
-2.6186 2.61857847697 6.8570 0.000404
-13.3810 13.3810289019 179.0519 0.002209
-46.1454 46.1453509374 2,129.3934 0.010878
-49.6886 49.6886296122 2,468.9599 0.010556
-47.7143 47.71430606 2,276.6550 0.008765
-9.5832 9.58324770196 91.8386 0.001565
-30.5518 30.5518323496 933.4145 0.004496
-30.9882 30.988218789 960.2697 0.005078
27.7434 27.7434016 769.6963 0.006115
-10.6154 10.6153542402 112.6857 0.002155
-8.0930 8.09298981079 65.4965 0.001421
-9.6601 9.66009977517 93.3175 0.001553
17.9755 17.9754969555 323.1185 0.002553
-36.2677 36.2677454383 1,315.3494 0.005679
8.6701 8.67013814347 75.1713 0.001826
-42.5525 42.5524806748 1,810.7136 0.008522
-25.3683 25.3683226721 643.5518 0.004393
-19.4630 19.4629653536 378.8070 0.002996
-11.7274 11.7274188012 137.5324 0.001564
-43.4650 43.4650499456 1,889.2106 0.006324
-79.8310 79.8310282239 6,372.9931 0.01659
-66.5059 66.5059250046 4,423.0381 0.012651
-95.9427 95.9427071481 9,205.0031 0.015777
-94.7279 94.7278869467 8,973.3726 0.013988
-67.8663 67.8662748373 4,605.8313 0.008855
-1.9418 1.94184559144 3.7708 0.000276
-12.1450 12.1449522448 147.4999 0.002373
MAD 31.6649630122
MSE 1,705.8488
MAPE 0.00555430538
Erro Erro Abs Erro^2 Erro Perc.

541.9490 541.948975587 293,708.6921 0.080456

95.5739 95.5739341135 9,134.3769 0.013486
75.0341 75.0341041711 5,630.1168 0.011139
-12.4367 12.4367111653 154.6718 0.001738
-183.1596 183.159615009 33,547.4446 0.025097
-136.5801 136.580119945 18,654.1292 0.01986
-210.7950 210.795018718 44,434.5399 0.030041
-79.1536 79.1535500714 6,265.2845 0.01151
-140.5362 140.53623031 19,750.4320 0.019443
11.5463 11.5463440521 133.3181 0.001696
130.7648 130.764825958 17,099.4397 0.018271
19.5566 19.5565691784 382.4594 0.002706
30.7336 30.733611107 944.5549 0.004424
-20.3450 20.3450401209 413.9207 0.002871
100.0780 100.078029809 10,015.6121 0.014704
67.2113 67.2113130483 4,517.3606 0.009875
59.0788 59.078839439 3,490.3093 0.008504
125.3155 125.315518589 15,703.9792 0.018604
-17.7904 17.7904290543 316.4994 0.002486
-29.9005 29.9005053023 894.0402 0.004348
-152.1984 152.198355859 23,164.3395 0.021266
-200.8596 200.859596937 40,344.5777 0.028065
-92.7859 92.7859296003 8,609.2287 0.013492
-8.0962 8.09621532426 65.5487 0.001202
51.2909 51.2908576576 2,630.7521 0.007096
80.5420 80.5419502972 6,487.0058 0.011834
80.9804 80.9804063963 6,557.8262 0.011204
157.6209 157.620860992 24,844.3358 0.0234
123.0281 123.028148173 15,135.9252 0.018264
-58.8176 58.817563019 3,459.5057 0.008299
MAD 103.125305633
MSE 20,549.6742
MAPE 0.01484602926
Erro Erro Abs Erro^2 Erro Perc.

-647.9582 647.958225102 419,849.8615 0.085936

-727.3294 727.329390215 529,008.0419 0.096913
-570.7854 570.785446258 325,796.0257 0.077164
-450.5608 450.560772029 203,005.0093 0.062413
-385.9361 385.936094398 148,946.6690 0.056514
-261.6737 261.673731296 68,473.1417 0.03696
3.3223 3.32228383737 11.0376 0.000491
65.0278 65.0277549305 4,228.6089 0.009367
117.5846 117.58457219 13,826.1316 0.016851
137.8997 137.899667884 19,016.3184 0.019469
25.1578 25.1578121542 632.9155 0.003678
-45.7286 45.7285674352 2,091.1019 0.006584
-59.2651 59.2650526221 3,512.3465 0.008662
-104.2445 104.244471525 10,866.9098 0.015312
-72.5971 72.5971165191 5,270.3413 0.011048
44.2205 44.2205440961 1,955.4565 0.006496
76.0930 76.0930494457 5,790.1522 0.011462
51.7949 51.7949320487 2,682.7150 0.007763
75.8471 75.847086606 5,752.7805 0.011903
84.5525 84.552474883 7,149.1210 0.012932
41.7243 41.7242811075 1,740.9156 0.006106
-31.6467 31.6466815196 1,001.5125 0.004701
-18.8748 18.8748235193 356.2590 0.002962
14.1910 14.1909581396 201.3833 0.00211
-41.9726 41.9726252378 1,761.7013 0.006524
-54.2430 54.2430312705 2,942.3064 0.008648
82.8421 82.8420837587 6,862.8108 0.012512
70.3134 70.3133740685 4,943.9706 0.010886
61.9915 61.9914626193 3,842.9414 0.009746
59.6352 59.6351973623 3,556.3568 0.009426
MAD 149.500452136
MSE 60,169.1614
MAPE 0.02105130775
Dias Atendimentos mmc IS Tend Tend 2
1 12 16.85245 17.6583
2 15 19.46641 18.1176
3 17 18.67331 18.5769
4 21 20.16667 1.041322 IS1 0.712063 20.44191 19.0362
5 25 20.41667 1.22449 IS2 0.770558 21.04688 19.4955
6 30 20.66667 1.451613 IS3 0.91039 21.01772 19.9548
7 14 20.91667 0.669323 IS4 1.027301 19.66119 20.4141
8 16 21.08333 0.758893 IS5 1.187824 20.76417 20.8734
9 19 21.33333 0.890625 IS6 1.427367 20.87017 21.3327
10 22 21.58333 1.019305 21.41533 21.792
11 26 21.66667 1.2 21.88876 22.2513
12 32 21.75 1.471264 22.4189 22.7106
13 15 22 0.681818 21.06557 23.1699
14 16 22.33333 0.716418 20.76417 23.6292
15 20 22.75 0.879121 21.96861 24.0885
16 24 23.5 1.021277 23.36218 24.5478
17 28 24.58333 1.138983 23.57251 25.0071
18 35 25.75 1.359223 24.52068 25.4664
19 21 26.75 0.785047 29.49179 25.9257
20 23 27.5 0.836364 29.84849 26.385
21 27 28.08333 0.961424 29.65762 26.8443
22 29 28.2293 27.3036
23 32 26.94001 27.7629
24 38 26.62245 28.2222

Ten2 Prev
25 28.6815 20.42302 Na previsão foi apontado que no dia 30 Gustavo terá que co
26 29.1408 22.45468
27 29.6001 26.94764
28 30.0594 30.88006
29 30.5187 36.25085
30 30.978 44.21697
 Prev
12.573813949808
13.960666617899 Chart Title
16.912225300455 40
19.555913191707
35
23.157228294708
28.4828201648 30
f(x) = 0.632608695652174 x + 15.3007246376812
14.536115897498 R² = 0.394040449005992
25
16.084171114389
19.421078256707 20

22.386950140977 15
26.430634451747
10
32.416357750251
16.498417845187 5
18.207675610879
0
21.929931212959 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
25.217987090248
29.704040608786
36.349895335702
Chart Title
18.460719792876
35
20.331180107368
24.438784169211 30
28.049024039519 f(x) = 0.459254825787839 x + 17.1993390090099
25 R² = 0.782670308213974
32.977446765825
40.283432921153 20

15

que no dia 30 Gustavo terá que contratar um novo funcionário 10

0
0 5 10 15 20
5 30

Chart Title

7.1993390090099

15 20 25 30
RESUMO DOS RESULTADOS

Estatística de regressão
R múltiplo 0.969835165439368
R-Quadrado 0.940580248122806
R-quadrado ajustado 0.861353912286547
Erro padrão 32.0284654082564
Observações 8

ANOVA
gl SQ MQ F
Regressão 4 48714.532211 12178.633053 11.872065497
Resíduo 3 3077.4677892 1025.8225964
Total 7 51792

Coeficientes Erro padrão Stat t valor-P

Interseção 876.697917062972 398.08829892 2.2022699975 0.1149279282
Preço -128.327463203303 24.129451225 -5.3182918254 0.0129856973
Pacientes 8.35558407224407 6.8116009126 1.2266696448 0.3074398184
Casos -0.132835176573776 0.0623586472 -2.1301805385 0.1229901589
Exames 0.512949548591347 0.2146082883 2.3901665336 0.096726863

RESULTADOS DE RESÍDUOS

Observação Previsto(a) Demanda Resíduos

1 364.427348053772 15.572651946
2 413.053342181359 -9.0533421814
3 415.621062563521 -14.621062564
4 248.789778252267 11.210221748
5 261.396912494383 13.603087506
6 333.175276668489 -43.175276668
7 409.436473169672 10.56352683
8 494.099806616533 15.900193383
 Todos os valores não são pertinentes, tirando o preço que deu menor que 5%.

F de significação
0.0349196683854

95% inferiores 95% superiores Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

-390.19671899761 2143.592553124 -390.196718998 2143.592553124
-205.11814610428 -51.53678030233 -205.118146104 -51.5367803023
-13.321970085128 30.03313822962 -13.3219700851 30.03313822962
-0.3312882228147 0.065617869667 -0.33128822281 0.065617869667
-0.1700298056836 1.195928902866 -0.17002980568 1.195928902866
Período Preço Pacientes Casos Exames Demanda
1 7 50 1050 210 380
2 6.5 45 1200 300 404
3 6.6 48 1350 320 401
4 7.2 47 1500 200 260
5 7.5 49 1550 280 275
6 6.8 51 1580 220 290
7 6 50 1600 190 420
8 5.9 51 1740 350 510
Tunbino
Meses Períodos Demanda mmc IS IS méd. D. Prev erro Erro abs
Jan 1 520 S1 1.129399 529.39816917377 -9.398169 9.398169
Fev 2 480 S2 1.027446 481.60840610338 -1.608406 1.608406
Mar 3 430 S3 0.950959 445.75553283264 -15.75553 15.75553
Abr 4 400 S4 0.874735 410.02593038421 -10.02593 10.02593
Mai 5 350 S5 0.756348 354.53284939463 -4.532849 4.532849
Jun 6 340 S6 0.733616 343.87755605456 -3.877556 3.877556
Jul 7 410 464.5833 0.882511 S7 0.884839 414.76236221544 -4.762362 4.762362
Ago 8 450 465.2083 0.967309 S8 0.971768 455.50968036797 -5.50968 5.50968
Set 9 460 465.8333 0.987478 S9 0.991186 464.61176603229 -4.611766 4.611766
Out 10 550 466.5417 1.178887 S10 1.178103 552.22757261577 -2.227573 2.227573
Nov 11 580 467.0417 1.241859 S11 1.248732 585.33459420932 -5.334594 5.334594
Dez 12 600 467.4583 1.283537 S12 1.28819 603.83030350946 -3.830304 3.830304
Jan 13 530 468.0833 1.132277 529.39816917377 0.601831 0.601831
Fev 14 485 469 1.034115 481.60840610338 3.391594 3.391594
Mar 15 440 469.9583 0.936253 445.75553283264 -5.755533 5.755533
Abr 16 407 470.75 0.864578 410.02593038421 -3.02593 3.02593
Mai 17 355 471.7083 0.752584 354.53284939463 0.467151 0.467151
Jun 18 345 472.8333 0.729644 343.87755605456 1.122444 1.122444
Jul 19 420 473.4167 0.887168 414.76236221544 5.237638 5.237638
Ago 20 462 473.25 0.976228 455.50968036797 6.49032 6.49032
Set 21 471 473.4167 0.994895 464.61176603229 6.388234 6.388234
Out 22 558 473.9583 1.177319 552.22757261577 5.772427 5.772427
Nov 23 595 473.875 1.255605 585.33459420932 9.665406 9.665406
Dez 24 612 473.375 1.292844 603.83030350946 8.169696 8.169696
Jan 25 532 472.25 1.126522 529.39816917377 2.601831 2.601831
Fev 26 479 469.25 1.020778 481.60840610338 -2.608406 2.608406
Mar 27 450 466 0.965665 445.75553283264 4.244467 4.244467
Abr 28 410 463.3333 0.884892 410.02593038421 -0.02593 0.02593
Mai 29 350 460.4583 0.760112 354.53284939463 -4.532849 4.532849
Jun 30 338 458.25 0.737589 343.87755605456 -5.877556 5.877556
Jul 31 400 414.76236221544 -14.76236 14.76236
Ago 32 410 455.50968036797 -45.50968 45.50968
Set 33 445 464.61176603229 -19.61177 19.61177
Out 34 520 552.22757261577 -32.22757 32.22757
Nov 35 564 585.33459420932 -21.33459 21.33459
Dez 36 590 603.83030350946 -13.8303 13.8303
d média 468.7431 Erro Acumulado -186.4242

Godino
Meses Períodos 2018 2019 2020 Méd D Ft St Previsão Erro
Jan 1 520 530 532 527.3333 1.134186 532 603.3868 -76.05345
Fev 2 480 485 479 481.3333 1.035249 478.35555555556 495.2172 -13.88384
Mar 3 430 440 450 440 0.94635 467.62666666667 442.5383 -2.53832
Abr 4 400 407 410 405.6667 0.872506 465.48088888889 406.1347 -0.468051
Mai 5 350 355 350 351.6667 0.756363 465.05173333333 351.7478 -0.081149
Jun 6 340 345 338 341 0.733421 464.96590222222 341.0157 -0.015738
Jul 7 410 420 400 410 0.881826 464.948736 410.0038 -0.003784
Ago 8 450 462 410 440.6667 0.947783 464.94530275556 440.6675 -0.000813
Set 9 460 471 445 458.6667 0.986498 464.94461610667 458.6668 -0.000169
Out 10 550 558 520 542.6667 1.167165 464.94447877689 542.6667 -4.01E-05
Nov 11 580 595 564 579.6667 1.246744 464.94445131093 579.6667 -8.56E-06
Dez 12 600 612 590 600.6667 1.291911 464.94444581774 600.6667 -1.77E-06
Média 464.9444 Soma -93.04537

A sazonalidade mais indicada seria a sazonalidade simples por conta do MAD ser menor comparado ao MAD da sazonalidad
permanência. E não, o alfa 0,2 não é o mais indicado por possuir o MAD muito alto, o mais indicado seria maior ou igual a 0
MAD 8.186951

Erro Abs
76.05345 Alfa 0.8
13.88384
 2.53832
0.468051
0.081149
0.015738
0.003784
0.000813
0.000169
4.007E-05
8.561E-06
1.774E-06
MAD 7.753781

o MAD da sazonalidade e
eria maior ou igual a 0,8.