Na segunda-feira 27 fevereiro de 2012, o WikiLeaks comeou a publicar os arquivos de inteligncia global, mais de cinco milhes de e-mails do Texas sede

"inteligncia global" Stratfor empresa. A data de e-mails entre julho de 2004 e final de dezembro de 2011. Eles revelam o funcionamento interno de uma empresa de fachada, como um editor de inteligncia, mas fornece servios de inteligncia confidenciais para grandes corporaes, como a Bhopal Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon e agncias governamentais, incluindo o Departamento de Segurana Interna dos EUA , os fuzileiros navais dos EUA e da Agncia de Inteligncia de Defesa dos EUA. Os e-mails mostram rede de informantes, estrutura de pay-off, tcnicas de lavagem de pagamento e mtodos psicolgicos da Stratfor. Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran Released on 2012-02-27 00:00 GMT Email-ID Date From To List-Name 185945 2011-11-14 15:40:05 bokhari@stratfor.com alpha@stratfor.com alpha@stratfor.com

I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS. My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We shouldn't completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before something related pops up in the OS. No estou dizendo que devemos acreditar em algo somente quando ela atinge o OS. Meu ponto sobre a prosseguir para frente a partir de um nico relatrio de origem. Ns no deveriams rejeit-lo completamente, mas a questo a confirmao antes de algo relacionado aparece no OS. On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote: Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke that indicates a fire? We tend to not believe things unless there is OS. The best intel never see's the light of day. I'm more circumspect when it is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.

Sim, mas uma agncia de inteligncia que prende uma nica pea de viso que depois corroborada pelo infame OS leva a crer que ou a mesma fonte responsvel tanto ou talvez h fumaa que indica um fogo? Tendemos a no acreditar em coisas menos que haja OS. A melhor intel nunca v a luz do dia. Eu sou mais cauteloso quando se est no OS ... a menos claro, que plantou.
p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. cc: APAC, JINSA. On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote: As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of insight as truth.

Como uma entidade de inteligncia, no podemos simplesmente aceitar uma nica pea de introspeco como verdade.

On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote: Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines. If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about anything. Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted. How come if its not in OS we nash our teeth? Intelligence agencies exist to have sources. That is what we are. Aes de guerrilha atrs das linhas inimigas. Se pensarmos os Izzies ter recuado esperando o Ir para criar um BOMBA somos como a CIA com a sua incapacidade de prever apenas sobre nada. Verifique INSIGHT eu postei na semana passada que todos descontados. como chegar se no for em OS que Nash nossos dentes? As agncias de inteligncia existem para dispor de fontes. Isso o que ns somos. On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote: Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we can't assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

Penetrando uma instalao militar importante e causando uma exploso uma jogo de bola completamente diferente. No estou dizendo que no pode acontecer. Mas ns No podemos assumir que, porque eles fizeram o Stuxnet que eles so capazes de fazer esta exploso tambm. um salto enorme em recursos.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Sean Noonan" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST) To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com> ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please reread the 2 stuxnet analyses. There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet, though it may have been unknowingly claro que no. Olhe para as centrfugas mil. por favor releia as duas anlises Stuxnet. H iranianos suficiente que aliyah'd a Israel que eles poderia facilmente treinar um persa procura, farsi judeu falando para ir para o Ir por sabotagem e no ser pego. Eu no sei o que isso est acontecendo nem posso supor que no haveria erros, mas muito possvel fazer isso sem ser detectado. A chave est recrutando agentes humanos sobre as bases. Isso foi claramente feito com o Stuxnet, embora possa ter sido inadvertidamente ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Kamran Bokhari" <bokhari@stratfor.com> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)

To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com> ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down. Sim, isso parece muito improvvel. '79 Foi toda uma diferente realidade. O estabelecimento de segurana tem o colocado trancado. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: Abe Selig <abe.selig@stratfor.com> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST) To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com> ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as Israeli spies too actually help Israel out. H ainda cerca de 20.000 judeus no Ir (Teer e Esfahan principalmente), mas IMO, eles so muito medo de ser acusado de Espies israelenses tambm realmente ajudar Israel. On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote: Ah. As stick said, they would more likely use proxies. But if not, special operations forces do often move undetected. Don't think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border. There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore, that's who I would recruit form. Ah. Conforme vara disse, eles seria mais provvel usar proxies(os que esto proximos). Mas se no, as foras de operaes especiais costumam passar despercebidos. no consider-los indo em um helicptero, consider-los indo com um grupo de trabalhadores migrantes que atravessam a fronteira. Costumava haver um grande nmero de judeus no Ir, agora nem tanto, isso que eu iria recrutar formulrio. ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Kamran Bokhari" <bokhari@stratfor.com> To: "Alpha List" <alpha@stratfor.com> Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran See insight below. Contate uma viso abaixo. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST) To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com> ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran what commandos? Qual o comando? ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Kamran Bokhari" <bokhari@stratfor.com> To: "Alpha List" <alpha@stratfor.com>

Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran without being detected? Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST) To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com> ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran I agree. The argument here is that the proponents of conventional war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it really that simple? What about other economic effects? For Israel, by this argument, it doesn't matter what method as long as it sets Iran back----I agree with this. However, the confidence that this guy has does not show publicly. By that, I mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet Israeli leaders have been. Suddenly they are really pushing the issue, and while Dagan isn't it, his line is that conventional war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn't need to be dealt with. I don't really like trying to interpret public statements, but I think there is something here, and that's why I keep pushing this. Eu concordo. O argumento aqui que os defensores da guerra convencional so aqueles que querem os preos do petrleo - mas realmente assim to simples? E quanto a outros efeitos econmicos? para Israel, por este argumento, no importa o mtodo, contanto que ele faa o Ir de voltar atrs ---- Eu concordo com isso. No entanto, a confiana que esse cara tem no mostra publicamente. Por isso, quero significa olhar para o que Dagan dizia h um ano, e como o silncio Os lderes israelenses foram. De repente, eles esto realmente empurrando o problema, e enquanto Dagan no , sua linha que guerra convencional seria um erro, e no que o Ir no precisa ser objeto De uma. Eu realmente no gosto de tentar interpretar declaraes pblicas, mas eu acho que h alguma coisa aqui, e por isso Eu continuo empurrando isso. ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Chris Farnham" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com> To: "Alpha List" <alpha@stratfor.com> Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked quite seriously here. The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we are seeing. Insight below: Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear infrastructure had been destroyed. Source response: Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and nuclear research projects.

Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client. If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict. In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos destroyed a significant part of it. If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather than an Israeli attack on Iran. On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy crisis?! How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground? Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)? Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been experiencing every day for over a year?! Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve. On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote: Code: IL701 Publication: for background Attribution: none Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent Source reliability: Still testing Item credibility: untested Source handler: Fred Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis were preparing a military offensive against Iran. Response: I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home

financial problems. It plays also well for the US since Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria. ----------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Reva Bhalla" <bhalla@stratfor.com> To: analysts@stratfor.com Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran wow, that's an extremely revealing statement. The Israelis (i believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments following the Stuxnet news as well. THe whole 'I'm not going to admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know of what happened and where and point out the holes in the accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing with Iran at this stage ---------------------------------------------------------------------From: "Ben West" <ben.west@stratfor.com> To: "alerts" <alerts@stratfor.com> Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran Interesting comments by the defense minister. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71 a17bf389563809eb2.a1 Israel hails deadly blast in Iran (AFP) - 1 hour ago JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents. "I don't know the extent of the explosion," he told military radio, asked about the incident. "But it would be desirable if they multiply." Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported killed in Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the western outskirts of Tehran. Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which Iran said was an accident, occurred as "ammunition was taken out

of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate site." Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel. Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to fit inside its medium-range missiles. Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites. Ben West Tactical Analyst STRATFOR 512-744-4300 ext. 4340 -Chris Farnham Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR Australia Mobile: 0423372241 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com www.stratfor.com -Sean Noonan Tactical Analyst STRATFOR T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967 www.STRATFOR.com -Sean Noonan Tactical Analyst STRATFOR T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967 www.STRATFOR.com -Sean Noonan Tactical Analyst STRATFOR T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967 www.STRATFOR.com -Abe Selig Officer, Operations Center STRATFOR T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846 www.STRATFOR.com