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Inteligência Artificial e Valores Democráticos - Próximos Passos para Os Estados Unidos - Conselho de Relações Exteriores
Inteligência Artificial e Valores Democráticos - Próximos Passos para Os Estados Unidos - Conselho de Relações Exteriores
O secretário de Estado dos EUA, Antony Blinken, fala na Casa Branca em 3 de março de 2021. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Reuters
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08/09/2022 17:31 Inteligência Artificial e Valores Democráticos: Próximos Passos para os Estados Unidos | Conselho de Relações Exteriores
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A China também está avançando com uma estratégia regulatória agressiva para
complementar seu objetivo de ser o “líder mundial em IA até 2030”. A China
recentemente combinou o GDPR com a Lei de Proteção de Informações Pessoais e
um novo regulamento sobre algoritmos de recomendação com disposições
semelhantes à Lei de Serviços Digitais da UE. O modelo regulatório chinês
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Mas os Estados Unidos estavam fora do circuito quando a Organização das Nações
Unidas para a Educação, a Ciência e a Cultura (UNESCO) adotou a Recomendação
sobre Ética em IA , agora a estrutura mais abrangente para a política global de IA
que aborda questões emergentes, como IA e clima e gênero. equidade.
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08/09/2022 17:31 Inteligência Artificial e Valores Democráticos: Próximos Passos para os Estados Unidos | Conselho de Relações Exteriores
defenda nossos valores democráticos”. Mas, sem uma agenda legislativa ou uma
declaração clara de princípios, nem aliados nem adversários são claros sobre os
objetivos da política de IA dos EUA.
Um desafio semelhante enfrenta os líderes da UE e dos EUA sobre novas regras para
fluxos de dados transatlânticos. Depois de duas decisões anteriores do Supremo
Tribunal da Europa, declarando que os Estados Unidos não tinham proteção de
privacidade adequada para a transferência de dados pessoais, os legisladores de
ambos os lados do Atlântico temiam que os fluxos de dados pudessem ser suspensos,
como o comissário de privacidade irlandês recentemente ameaçou . O presidente
Biden e o presidente von der Leyen anunciaram um acordo de princípio em maio,
mas vários meses depois ainda não há texto público para revisão.
Apoiamos fortemente esta iniciativa. Após uma extensa revisão das políticas e
práticas de IA em 50 países , identificamos a Declaração de Direitos de IA como
possivelmente a iniciativa de política de IA mais significativa nos Estados Unidos.
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Marc Rotenberg é presidente do Center for AI and Digital Policy (CAIDP), autor da
próxima Lei de Inteligência Artificial (West Academic 2023) e membro vitalício do
CFR. Merve Hickok é o Diretor de Pesquisa do CAIDP e fundador do AIethicist.org
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08/09/2022 17:31 Inteligência Artificial e Valores Democráticos: Próximos Passos para os Estados Unidos | Conselho de Relações Exteriores
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers her inaugural address in Taipei, Taiwan in May 2020. Wang Yu Ching/Reuters
The crisis brewing between China and Taiwan has involved strident Chinese threats
and warnings, military exercises (including firing nearly a dozen missiles toward
Taiwanese-controlled waters), and China’s suspension of talks with the United States.
Even if China is not seeking to use the current situation as a pretext to justify an
invasion of the island, there is the risk that miscalculations or accidents could cause
the situation to escalate along a dangerous trajectory.
But what about the cyber dimension of this crisis? Some experts have warned that
international crises are fertile ground for cyber escalation and caution that the
dangers are growing. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence that cyber operations
lead to escalation (especially above a use of force threshold). Therefore, the present
China-Taiwan situation may provide yet another case to evaluate the role of
cyberspace in crisis stability. What does the evidence reveal?
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First, there has been minimal cyber activity amounting to only a handful of publicly-
identified incidents. These have largely comprised distributed denial of service
(DDoS) attacks against government websites, including the Defense Ministry, Office
of the President, Foreign Ministry, and the Taoyuan International Airport. In
general, DDoS attacks are relatively unsophisticated and are more of a nuisance
than anything else, causing temporary disruptions in service. Additionally, it’s not
even clear whether the Chinese government is responsible–either directly or
indirectly.
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Finally, while cyber espionage campaigns can be difficult to uncover (by definition,
they are meant to be secret), some experts believe that such operations are
underway. John Hultquist, Mandiant’s vice president of intelligence analysis,
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anticipates Chinese cyber espionage will kick into “overdrive” as Beijing seeks to
learn more about Taiwan and U.S. positions on this crisis.
China’s current cyber operations in Taiwan are largely consistent with its past
behavior. According to the Dyadic Cyber Incident and Campaign Data (DCID),
which categorizes state-sponsored cyber activity between 2000-2020, there have been
thirteen recorded cyber events between China and Taiwan, twelve of which were
initiated by China. Of those, eight were launched for espionage, consistent with
what research has shown about China’s proclivity to conduct cyber espionage
operations against its rivals. And of the 115 cyber incidents overall that have been
attributed to China, 79 percent were launched for espionage purposes. The
remaining four cyber incidents targeting Taiwan were for disruption (such as DDoS
campaigns). Altogether, none of the twelve recorded cyber incidents were so severe
they resulted in physical damage.
It’s also noteworthy that one third of China’s past cyber operations targeting
Taiwanese entities also had an information operations component. 2018 was
reportedly a turning point in China’s investment in digital information campaigns.
Disinformation had a strong presence in the 2018 and 2020 elections in Taiwan. A
few months ago, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen described China’s information
assault against Taiwan as “cognitive warfare tactics.”
What does this suggest about the role of cyberspace in international crises? As of
this writing, the available evidence about the current China-Taiwan situation
parallels what prior research has demonstrated: that cyber operations are poor tools
of coercion and are unlikely to cause escalation. Instead, states can gain an
advantage over rivals through exploiting the unique aspects of cyberspace–its
capacity to shape and manipulate perception (through information operations) and
to gain an information advantage (through espionage).
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Put simply, if China seeks to demonstrate resolve in this crisis, cyber operations are
not the best tool to do so. The small scale of China’s recent disruptive cyber
operations against Taiwan–especially when compared to live-fire military exercises–
reflects this reasoning. China may also be reluctant to conduct more sophisticated
and costly cyberattacks that could burn critical accesses enabling ongoing cyber
espionage campaigns or potential cyber operations during a future warfighting
scenario.
The nuisance cyber activity could also be a way for China to convey some form of
restraint or act as an accommodative signal. This form of signaling can allow states
to be perceived as “doing something” while avoiding exacerbating a crisis–especially
when under domestic political pressure to take a more hawkish stance. While China
has conducted exercises in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and in waters
around Taiwan, the cyberattacks are the only direct offensive effects carried out
against Taiwanese infrastructure so far (with negligible impact). Of course, without
more evidence caution is warranted when discerning the intent behind cyber
behavior.
Overall, this should assuage concerns about cyber activity exacerbating the broader
crisis. But what if things change? As experts have noted, the situation is dynamic
and China could launch more significant cyberattacks against Taiwan. Indeed, Tsai
stated on Friday that government agencies are ramping up security efforts and are
“ready to respond as necessary.” While it is far more likely that military moves in the
physical, rather than digital, environment would increase the chances of crisis
escalation, there are two types of Chinese cyber actions that would be a cause for
concern.
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Second, Chinese military strategy defines an important role for cyber operations
early on in a conventional conflict, either preemptively or in response to being
attacked, particularly in a contest with a technologically superior adversary (such as
the United States). Therefore, cyberattacks that look like a precursor to a
conventional assault, such as cyberattacks that disrupt or degrade adversary military
assets (e.g., command and control, communications, intelligence, or surveillance)
could be an early warning of an impending invasion of Taiwan. That said, even in
these circumstances, it will be imperative for policymakers to avoid jumping to
conclusions about Chinese intent based on behavior in cyberspace alone, absent
other corroborating and credible intelligence.
Erica D. Lonergan (nee Borghard) is an Assistant Professor in the Army Cyber Institute
at West Point. She is also an Adjunct Research Scholar in the Saltzman Institute of War
and Peace Studies and the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia
University.
Grace B. Mueller is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Army Cyber Institute at West Point. She
is also an Adjunct Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Southern Methodist
University.
The views expressed are personal and do not reflect the policy or position of any U.S.
government entity or organization.
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