1 Exemplo de Analise de Risco

Universidade de Brasília
Faculdade de Tecnologia
Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental
TOPICOS ESPECIAIS EM
GEOTECNIA – ANÁLISE
QUANTITATIVA DO RISCO
Hernán Eduardo Martínez-Carvajal

Exercício 1
Elemento exposto
10 anos
Valor US$50.000
Exercício 2
Elementos expostos
US$200.000 US$50.000 US$100.000
10 anos
Exercício 3
Elemento exposto
Valor US$50.000
50 anos
10 anos
2 anos
Ameaça (P)
C ($)
Na realidade...
Elemento exposto:
Quantidade? Valor?
Intensidade da
ameaça?
Probabilidade?
1. Avaliação da ameaça: Determinística, probabilística (confiabilidade),

intensidade. Para o exemplo: quantidade de água?, quando? Onde?
2. Elementos expostos: cartografia, vulnerabilidade (física, outras),
valor. Para o exemplo: quantos elementos? Onde? Grau de
fragilidade dependendo da intensidade da enchente? Valor
econômico? Valor das pessoas?
3. Quantificação do risco.
RISK-BASED DESIGN DECISION MAKING
6,5m
5,4m
0m
5,0m mean ground level

around the town on which the
levee would be placed
Four alternatives:
1. Do nothing. Pay for flood damages as they occur.
6,5m
5,4m
0m

Four alternatives:
2. Floodproof individual buildings threatened by the
floods: rising houses & sealing basements.
8,4m
Levee
5,4m
0m

Four alternatives:
• Do nothing. Pay for flood damages as they occur.
• Floodproof individual buildings threatened by the
• Construct a levee to protect against 5,4m flood.
9,5m
Levee
6,5m
0m

Four alternatives:
2. Floodproof individual buildings threatened by the
3. Construct a levee to protect against 5,4m flood.
4. Construct a levee to protect against 6,5m flood.
DESIGN LIFE= 100 YEARS FOR ALL THE ALTERNATIVES!!

9,5m
Levee
6,5m
5,4m
0m
The hazard.
1. The 5,4m flood: l=1/100 per year. Includes:
• 100 years return period storm
• Climate effects (ocean rising)
• Crustal subsidence
• High tide.
2. The 6,5m flood includes all the considerations before and THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE with a return period of 1,5 years
and last 12h.
 1  1 
l     9 x10 6
 100  1,5 x365 x 2 
9,5m
Levee
6,5m
5,4m
0m
The elements at risk:

ATTRIBUTE 5,4m FLOOD 6,5m FLOOD
# structures flooded 42 116
m2 of structures flooded 12.672 23.182
High priority structures School School +

Firestation
Roads flooded 1.300m 2.500m
9,5m
Levee
6,5m
5,4m
0m
The elements at risk:

ATTRIBUTE Cost ($/m2)
Average structural repair cost 240
Movable goods cost 80
Total flood repair cost 320
Total property value:
Small buildings: 5,4m flood/ 6,5m flood $1´642.000 / $5´029.900
Medium buildings: 5,4m flood/ 6,5m flood $2´831.800 / $5´411.500
Large buildings: 5,4m flood/ 6,5m flood $5´000.000 / $5´000.000
The vulnerability (cost of the consequences):
Repairs to damages 12.672m2x$320/m2= 23.182m2x$320/m2=

$4´044.902 $8´304.000
$4´044.902 $8´304.000
Floodproofing small (0,31)($1´642.000)= (0,31)($5´029.900)=
buildings (<150m2). $509.020 $1´559.269
Elevation on bearing walls.

$4´044.902 $8´304.000

buildings (<150m2). $509.020 $1´559.269
Floodproofing of medium (0,26)($2´831.800)= (0,26)($5´411.500)=

sized buildings (150- $736.268 $1´406.990
2000m2). Closures & seal.

$4´044.902 $8´304.000

buildings (<150m2). $509.020 $1´559.269

sized buildings (150- $736.268 $1´406.990
Floodproofing of large (0,26)($5´000.000)= (0,26)($5´000.000)=

buildings (>2000m2). Closure $1´300.000 $1´300.000
& seal.
$4´044.902 $8´304.000
buildings (<150m2). $509.020 $1´559.269
sized buildings (150- $736.268 $1´406.990
Floodproofing of large (0,26)($5´000.000)= (0,26)($5´000.000)=
buildings (>2000m2). Closure $1´300.000 $1´300.000
& seal.
Constructing a levee. 3,00m Elevation=8,4m. Elevation=9,5m.
free board. Constructed height= 8,4- Constructed height= 9,5-
5=3,4m 5=4,5m
Unit cost=$2.600/m Unit cost=$4.200/m
Total cost=(900)(2.600)= Total cost=(900)(4.200)=
$2´340.000 $3´780.000
The risk assessment:
1. Consider first the EXPECTED FAILURE COSTS, E[Cf], of “doing-
nothing”:
E[Cf]=(#floods expected in 100 years) (Costs of floods damage)
This is a measure of This is a measure of

hazard in terms of vulnerability.
temporal probability Quantification of $ lost.
5,4m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($4´044.902)=(0,01x100)($4´044.902)= $4´044.902

6,5m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($8´304.000)=(9E-6x100)($8´304.000)= $7.474
Do you see the spatial and

magnitude probability?
5,4m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($4´044.902)=(0,01x100)($4´044.902)= $4´044.902

6,5m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($8´304.000)=(9E-6x100)($8´304.000)= $7.474
Compare with floodproofing costs:

•$1´559.269 (for small buildings)
•$1´406.990 (for medium buildings)
•$1´300.000 (for large buildings)
…and with constructing a levee:

•$3´780.000
The best option with respect to the

6,5m flood is “DO-NOTHING”
2. For the 5,4m flood compare:
• E[Cf] of “doing-nothing”: $4´044.902
• E[Cf] of floodproofing: $ 509.020 (small buildings)
$ 736.268 (medium buildings)
$1´300.000 (large buildings)
$ 7.474 (6,5m flood may occur)
$2´552.762
• E[Cf] of floodproofing: $ 509.020 (small buildings)
$ 736.268 (medium buildings)
$1´300.000 (large buildings)
$2´552.762
• E[Cf] of levee construction: $2´340.000
$2´347.474
This seems to be the best option. Nevertheless, is very similar to

the option of “floodproofing”. Both are quite competitive.

1 Exemplo de Analise de Risco

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Universidade de Brasília

Hernán Eduardo Martínez-Carvajal

US$200.000 US$50.000 US$100.000

1. Avaliação da ameaça: Determinística, probabilística (confiabilidade),

5,0m mean ground level

5,0m mean ground level

5,0m mean ground level

5,0m mean ground level

DESIGN LIFE= 100 YEARS FOR ALL THE ALTERNATIVES!!

The elements at risk:

# structures flooded 42 116

m2 of structures flooded 12.672 23.182

High priority structures School School +

The elements at risk:

Repairs to damages 12.672m2x$320/m2= 23.182m2x$320/m2=

Repairs to damages 12.672m2x$320/m2= 23.182m2x$320/m2=

Floodproofing small (0,31)($1´642.000)= (0,31)($5´029.900)=

Floodproofing of medium (0,26)($2´831.800)= (0,26)($5´411.500)=

Repairs to damages 12.672m2x$320/m2= 23.182m2x$320/m2=

Floodproofing small (0,31)($1´642.000)= (0,31)($5´029.900)=

Floodproofing of medium (0,26)($2´831.800)= (0,26)($5´411.500)=

Floodproofing of large (0,26)($5´000.000)= (0,26)($5´000.000)=

E[Cf]=(#floods expected in 100 years) (Costs of floods damage)

This is a measure of This is a measure of

5,4m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($4´044.902)=(0,01x100)($4´044.902)= $4´044.902

Do you see the spatial and

5,4m flood E[Cf]=(lt)($4´044.902)=(0,01x100)($4´044.902)= $4´044.902

Compare with floodproofing costs:

…and with constructing a levee:

The best option with respect to the

This seems to be the best option. Nevertheless, is very similar to

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