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PRECIPITACIN MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS

ESTACIN :
PARAMETRO :

Ao
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

TOCACHE
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

ENE.
48.3
98.8
120.3
15.0
20.2
21.2
21.3
18.6
21.1
21.0
20.3
20.8

FEB.
40.2
46.6
57.4
37.8
20.2
21.6
21.1
20.7
20.9
21.6
21.3

MAR.
70.5
86.5
99.6
75.0
20.5
21.2
20.7
20.4
21.1
20.7
21.1
22.1
21.3

LONG. :
LAT. :
ALT. :
ABR.
46.4
43.5
49.8
20.1
21.5
20.8
20.3
20.7
20.6
21.4
21.9
21.3

0811' "S"
7632' "W"
528 msnm

DPTO.
PROV.
DIST.

MAY.
33.5
41.8
60.0
28.8
20.2
20.8
20.3
19.7
24.3
19.6

JUN.
40.3
29.5
43.0
105.7
18.3
19.8
20.1
17.7
19.2

JUL.
65.3
31.0
9.8
43.6
18.9
19.4
18.5
18.1
17.9

AGO.
11.0
51.2
28.9
76.4
19.2
19.3
19.1
16.6
17.6

21.0
21.6
20.7

20.2
20.9
20.1

19.9
19.9
19.2

20.4
20.1
19.4

:
:
:

SET.
81.2
48.5
48.8
80.1
19.9
20.0
18.8
17.0
17.6
20.1
20.5
19.4

SAN MARTIN
TOCACHE
TOCACHE
OCT.
50.0
40.1
43.3
121.7
21.2
20.8
18.2
18.5
20.7
21.4
21.1
20.4

NOV.
58.3
121.1
53.4
37.4
21.7
20.7
19.0
20.8
19.7
21.0
20.6
21.4
20.7

DIC.
48.5
60.6
119.4
65.5
21.4
21.6
18.7
21.2
20.3
21.1
21.8
15.0
19.9

P. Mx
81.2
121.1
120.3
121.7
21.7
21.6
21.3
20.4
24.3
21.2
20.3
21.1
21.8
22.1
21.3

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)


ESTACION TOCACHE
Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III
First Moment (mean) = 45.4267
Second Moment = 1.765e03
Skew = 1.072e+00
Point
Weibull
Actual
Predicted
Number
Probability
Value
Value
1
0.0600
20.3
6.6800
2
0.1300
20.4
9.4900
3
0.1900
21.1
12.5800
4
0.2500
21.2
15.9200
5
0.3100
21.3
19.5200
6
0.3800
21.3
23.4400
7
0.4400
21.6
27.7600
8
0.5000
21.7
32.5600
9
0.5600
21.8
37.9900
10
0.6300
22.1
44.2700
11
0.6900
24.3
51.7100
12
0.7500
81.2
60.8400
13
0.8100
120.3
72.6800
14
0.8800
121.1
89.5000
15
0.9400
121.7
118.7000

Exceedence
Probability

Return
Period

0.998
0.995
0.990
0.980
0.960
0.900
0.800
0.667
0.500

500
200
100
50
25
10
5
3
2

Predictiones
Calculated
Value

272.2800
230.0200
198.7000
167.9600
137.8100
98.8400
70.0100
49.1100
32.5600

Standard
Deviation
24.1676
14.8068
8.8465
6.2238
7.3313
9.9866
12.7526
15.2594
17.4133
19.1814
20.5497
21.5632
22.5100
24.7545
35.0112

Standard
Deviation

171.0730
126.1771
95.5898
68.5522
46.1268
27.0542
22.2905
20.1443
15.2594

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Pearson Type III

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)


ESTACION TOCACHE
Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III
First Moment (mean) = 45.4267
Second Moment = 1.765e03
Skew = 1.072e+00
Point
Weibull
Actual
Predicted
Number
Probability
Value
Value
1
0.0600
20.3
14.4300
2
0.1300
20.4
15.7600
3
0.1900
21.1
17.1300
4
0.2500
21.2
18.6000
5
0.3100
21.3
20.2400
6
0.3800
21.3
22.1100
7
0.4400
21.6
24.2800
8
0.5000
21.7
26.8700
9
0.5600
21.8
30.0500
10
0.6300
22.1
34.0900
11
0.6900
24.3
39.4600
12
0.7500
81.2
47.0500
13
0.8100
120.3
58.8300
14
0.8800
121.1
80.2500
15
0.9400
121.7
135.6500

Exceedence
Probability

Return
Period

0.998
0.995
0.990
0.980
0.960
0.900
0.800
0.667
0.500

500
200
100
50
25
10
5
3
2

Predictiones
Calculated
Value

1852.9900
917.1900
541.1800
320.2900
189.9100
95.0800
55.9700
37.5100
26.8700

Standard
Deviation
5.3486
3.2994
2.3655
2.5161
3.4049
4.6057
5.9749
7.4969
9.2115
11.2102
13.6789
17.0651
22.6971
35.8152
91.0373

Standard
Deviation

13757.8800
3465.9170
1259.7810
465.4291
172.3762
47.5991
21.2527
12.7985
7.4969

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Log Pearson Type III

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)


ESTACION TOCACHE
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
First Moment (mean) = 45.4267
Second Moment = 1.765e03
Skew = 1.072e+00
Point
Weibull
Actual
Predicted
Number
Probability
Value
Value
1
0.0600
20.3
-16.3900
2
0.1300
20.4
-4.7900
3
0.1900
21.1
3.9600
4
0.2500
21.2
11.5700
5
0.3100
21.3
18.6500
6
0.3800
21.3
25.5200
7
0.4400
21.6
32.4200
8
0.5000
21.7
39.5200
9
0.5600
21.8
47.0400
10
0.6300
22.1
55.2000
11
0.6900
24.3
64.3400
12
0.7500
81.2
74.9900
13
0.8100
120.3
88.1500
14
0.8800
121.1
105.9500
15
0.9400
121.7
135.2800

Exceedence
Probability

Return
Period

0.998
0.995
0.990
0.980
0.960
0.900
0.800
0.667
0.500

500
200
100
50
25
10
5
3
2

Predictiones
Calculated
Value

Standard
Deviation

275.3700
238.3500
210.2900
182.1300
153.7500
115.5100
85.2400
61.2000
39.5200

66.1547
56.6980
49.5562
42.4235
35.2950
25.8610
18.7196
13.5870
10.0574

Standard
Deviation
13.2338
11.2027
9.9975
9.2753
8.9446
8.9750
9.3504
10.0574
11.0895
12.4581
14.2076
16.4415
19.3823
23.5599
30.7031

Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3

Gumbel Extremal Type I

150
100
50
0
0.00
-50

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV
Distribucin Pearson Tipo 3.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
ESTACION TOCACHE
3

Y=(x-1)/1

2Y

21

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

20.3
20.4
21.1
21.2
21.3
21.3
21.6
21.7
21.8
22.1
24.3
81.2
120.3

0.6927
0.6957
0.7167
0.7197
0.7227
0.7227
0.7317
0.7347
0.7377
0.7467
0.8126
2.5183
3.6904

1.3854
1.3914
1.4334
1.4394
1.4454
1.4454
1.4634
1.4694
1.4754
1.4934
1.6253
5.0366
7.3807

2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678
2.5678

0.5002
0.4987
0.4884
0.4869
0.4854
0.4854
0.4811
0.4797
0.4782
0.4739
0.4437
0.0806
0.0250

121.7

3.7323

7.4647

2.5678

0.0239

n
Suma
Media
Des.Eest(S)
sesgo()
1=(2/)2

15.0 (Nmero de Datos)


560.3
40.0
37.80
1.7651
1.2839

1=S/1

33.3595

1=X-11

-2.8087

d crtico =
=0.05

V-SMIRNOV
n Mxima en 24 horas
CHE
Fx

Fo

Abs(Fo-Fx)

0.4998
0.5013
0.5116
0.5131
0.5146
0.5146
0.5189
0.5203
0.5218
0.5261
0.5563
0.9194
0.9750

0.0625
0.1250
0.1875
0.2500
0.3125
0.3750
0.4375
0.5000
0.5625
0.6250
0.6875
0.7500
0.8125

0.4373
0.3763
0.3241
0.2631
0.2021
0.1396
0.0814
0.0203
0.0407
0.0989
0.1312
0.1694
0.1625

0.9761

0.9375
D=

0.0386
0.4373

0.349

PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV
Distribucin Log Pearson Tipo 3.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
ESTACION LIRCAY
3

LnX

Y=(x-1)/1

2Y

21

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

20.3
20.4
21.1
21.2
21.3
21.3
21.6
21.7
21.8
22.1
24.3
81.2
120.3
121.7

3.0106
3.0155
3.0493
3.0540
3.0587
3.0587
3.0727
3.0773
3.0819
3.0956
3.1905
4.3969
4.7900
4.8016

0.8074
0.8162
0.8771
0.8856
0.8941
0.8941
0.9193
0.9276
0.9359
0.9606
1.1317
3.3075
4.0163
4.0372

1.6147
1.6324
1.7541
1.7712
1.7881
1.7881
1.8386
1.8552
1.8718
1.9211
2.2634
6.6149
8.0327
8.0744

3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586
3.0586

0.6561
0.6521
0.6250
0.6212
0.6175
0.6175
0.6066
0.6030
0.5994
0.5889
0.5196
0.0852
0.0453
0.0445

n
Suma
Media
Des.Eest(S)
sesgo()
1=(2/)2

14
560.3
3.41
0.6857
1.6173

1=S/1

0.5545

1=X-11

2.5630

1.5293

d crtico =
=0.05

0.349

NOV
xima en 24 horas

Fx

Fo

Abs(Fo-Fx)

0.3439
0.3479
0.3750
0.3788
0.3825
0.3825
0.3934
0.3970
0.4006
0.4111
0.4804
0.9148
0.9547
0.9555

0.0667
0.1333
0.2000
0.2667
0.3333
0.4000
0.4667
0.5333
0.6000
0.6667
0.7333
0.8000
0.8667
0.9333
D=

0.2773
0.2146
0.1750
0.1121
0.0491
0.0175
0.0732
0.1363
0.1994
0.2556
0.2529
0.1148
0.0880
0.0222
0.2773

PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV
Distribucin Gumbel.- Precipitacin Mxima en 24 horas
ESTACION LIRCAY
N

Fx

Fo

Abs(Fo-Fx)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

20.3
20.4
21.1
21.2
21.3
21.3
21.6
21.7
21.8
22.1
24.3
81.2
120.3
121.7

0.3618
0.3627
0.3696
0.3706
0.3716
0.3716
0.3745
0.3755
0.3765
0.3794
0.4010
0.8188
0.9320
0.9345

0.0667
0.1333
0.2000
0.2667
0.3333
0.4000
0.4667
0.5333
0.6000
0.6667
0.7333
0.8000
0.8667
0.9333
D=

0.2951
0.2294
0.1696
0.1039
0.0382
0.0284
0.0921
0.1578
0.2235
0.2872
0.3323
0.0188
0.0654
0.0011
0.3323

n
Suma
Media
Desvest
uy
y
Alfa
Beta
exp(1)

:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:

14
560.3
40.0
37.80
0.51004
1.00948
0.026706
20.923297
2.718282

d crtico : 0.349

: 0.05

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)


ESTACION LIRCAY
500
Pearson Type III
450

Log Pearson Type III

400

350

PERIODO DE
RETORNO

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
25.00

225.00

425.00

625.00

825.00

1025.00

1225.00

PRECIPITACION

1425.00

1625.00

1825.00

2025.00