Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
PORTUGAL
PRIMAVERA 2015
CRESCIMENTO DA ECONOMIA
Economia
INDICADORES ECONMICOS
Taxa de variao anual - 2001/2016*
% Crescimento Anual
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*
Consumo Privado (1)
PIB (1)
Inflao (2)
Fonte: INE; Banco de Portugal (Dezembro 14); Organizao para a Cooperao e Desenvolvimento Econmico
(Novembro 14)
* Projeo
PRIMAVERA 20151
PRIMAVERA 2015
INFLAO (2)
2015
PIB (1)
INFLAO (2)
Banco de Portugal
0,9%
-0,1%
1,5%
0,7%
CE
1,3%
0,6%
1,7%
0,9%
FMI
1,0%
0,0%
1,5%
1,1%
OCDE
0,8%
-0,2%
1,5%
0,2%
Fonte: Banco de Portugal (Dezembro 14); CE - Comisso Europeia (Novembro 14); FMI - Fundo Monetrio
Internacional (Novembro 14); OCDE - Organizao para a Cooperao e Desenvolvimento Econmico (Novembro 14)
(1) Taxa de Variao Anual
RECUPERAO DO RETALHO
Retalho
100
90
80
70
Jan
-1
Ab 0
r10
Ju
l-1
O 0
ut
-1
Jan 0
-1
Ab 1
r11
Ju
l-1
O 1
ut
-1
Jan 1
-1
Ab 2
r12
Ju
l-1
O 2
ut
-1
Jan 2
-1
Ab 3
r13
Ju
l-1
O 3
ut
-1
Jan 3
-1
Ab 4
r14
Ju
l-1
O 4
ut
-1
4
Fonte: INE
MARKETBEAT
350
4,00
300
3,75
250
Milhes de m2
Milhares de m2
3,50
200
3,25
150
2,75
100
2,50
50
0
2,25
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
PRIMAVERA 2015
T4-10 T1-11 T2-11 T3-11 T4-11 T1-12 T2-12 T3-12 T4-12 T1-13 T2-13 T3-13 T4-13 T1-14 T2-14 T3-14
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
ndice de trfego
ndice de vendas
Centros Comerciais
Retail Parks
/m2/ms
72,5
8,5
95,0
40,0
MARKETBEAT
AUMENTO DA ATIVIDADE
Escritrios
200
150
100
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2 Semestre
Zona 2
Zona 3
2013
2011
1 Semestre
Milhares de m2
Zona 4
Zona 5
Zona 6
Zona 7
2014
PRIMAVERA 2015
35
140
30
120
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
20
0
0-100
101- 500
501- 1.000
ABL (m2)
1.001- 2.000
2.001- 5.000
N Transaes
+ 5.000
N Transaes
MARKETBEAT
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Zona 1
Zona 2
Zona 3
Zona 4
2013
Zona 5
Zona 6
Zona 7
Zona 5
Zona 6
Zona 7
2014
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Zona 1
Zona 2
Zona 3
Zona 4
RENDAS - 2014
ZONA
Mdia (/m2/ms)
Prime (/m2/ms)
16,0
18,5
13,0
15,0
8,0
11,0
Corredor Oeste
Fonte: Cushman & Wakefield
PRIMAVERA 2015
EVOLUO POSITIVA
Industrial
BALANA COMERCIAL - 2007/2014
Milhes de
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
-10.000
-20.000
10
-30.000
5
2007
2008
Exportaes
2009
2010
Importaes
2011
2012
2013
2014
Fonte: INE
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan
Ab 09
r0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ut
-0
Jan 9
Ab 10
r1
Ju 0
l-1
O 0
ut
-1
Jan 0
Ab 11
r1
Ju 1
l-1
O 1
ut
-1
Jan 1
Ab 12
r1
Ju 2
l-1
O 2
ut
-1
Jan 2
Ab 13
r1
Ju 3
l-1
O 3
ut
-1
Jan 3
Ab 14
r1
Ju 4
l-1
O 4
ut
-1
4
-25
Portugal
rea Euro
MARKETBEAT
EIXO
ZONAS
INTERVALO DE RENDAS
PRATICADAS (/m/ms)
OFERTA
PROCURA
Alverca - Azambuja
3,25 - 3,75
Elevada
Moderada
2
3
Almada - Setbal
2,00 - 2,75
Elevada
Reduzida
Loures
3,50 - 3,75
Moderada
Reduzida
Montijo - Alcochete
Montijo e Alcochete
3,00 - 3,50
Moderada
Reduzida
Sintra - Cascais
3,50 - 3,75
Reduzida
Reduzida
Grande Porto
3,50 - 3,75
Reduzida
Moderada
NOVOS MXIMOS
Hotis
O ano de 2014 revelou-se amplamente positivo para a hotelaria
nacional, com novos recordes atingidos em diversos indicadores
tursticos. Como consequncia dos bons resultados da operao
hoteleira, h uma maior atividade ao nvel do mercado imobilirio
deste setor, por parte de operadores e investidores.
Em relao evoluo da procura, o nmero de hspedes
situou-se nos 16,1 milhes em 2014, registando um aumento
de 12,0% face a 2013. Evoluo semelhante teve o nmero
de dormidas, com os estabelecimentos tursticos nacionais
a registarem um total de 46,1 milhes, revelando uma
manuteno da estada mdia nas 2,9 noites. Por seu lado,
a taxa lquida de ocupao por cama registou um aumento
de 2,7 pontos percentuais face a 2013, situando-se em 2014
nos 43,9%.
No que diz respeito aos proveitos de hotelaria, estes
registaram um notvel crescimento de 12,8%, ascendendo
aos 2.204,1 milhes. Em resultado, os proveitos por dormida
aumentaram 1,6% para os 47,8. O rendimento mdio por
quarto disponvel (RevPAR) atingiu em 2014 os 33,1, um valor
9,5% acima do ano anterior.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Var. %
Var. %
2013/14 2012/13
14,0
13,8
14,4
39,4
39,7
41,6
Proveitos hotelaria
(milhes de )
1.807,5 1.906,0 1.856,5 1.954,6 2.204,1 12,8% 5,3%
Proveitos por
Dormida ()
48,3
48,3
46,8
47,0
Fonte: INE
PRIMAVERA 2015
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
NORTE
CENTRO
LISBOA
2012
ALENTEJO
2013
ALGARVE
AORES
MADEIRA
2014
Fonte: INE
OUTROS
25%
REINO UNIDO
24%
ITLIA
3%
IRLANDA
4%
ALEMANHA
14%
BRASIL
4%
FRANA
9%
HOLANDA
6%
ESPANHA
11%
Fonte: INE
HOTEL VIP EXECUTIVE ARTS - LISBOA
10
MARKETBEAT
CRESCIMENTO LIGEIRO
Residencial
2.100
3.000
1.800
2.500
1.500
2.000
1.200
1.500
900
1.000
600
500
300
Preo de Venda / m2
3.500
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Fonte: SIR
Jan
M 11
ar
M 11
ai1
Ju 1
l-1
Se 1
tN 11
ov
Jan 11
M 12
ar
M 12
ai1
Ju 2
l-1
Se 2
t-1
N 2
ov
-1
Jan 2
M 13
ar
M 13
ai1
Ju 3
l-1
Se 3
t-1
N 3
ov
Jan 13
M 14
ar
-1
M 4
ai1
Ju 4
l-1
Se 4
t-1
N 4
ov
-1
4
Fonte: INE
11
PRIMAVERA 2015
AUMENTO DA PROCURA
Investimento
A atividade de investimento imobilirio no setor comercial
confirmou em 2014 de forma definitiva a inverso da tendncia
negativa que se verificava no mercado desde 2008. O aumento
da procura, generalizado a todo o tipo de investidores e
transversal a todos os setores, refletiu-se num aumento dos
volumes transacionados e consequente compresso das yields.
OBRIGAES DO TESOURO A 10 ANOS - 2009/2014
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Jan
Ab 09
r0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ut
Jan 09
Ab 10
r1
Ju 0
l-1
O 0
ut
-1
Jan 0
Ab 11
r1
Ju 1
l-1
O 1
ut
Jan 11
Ab 12
r1
Ju 2
l-1
O 2
ut
-1
Jan 2
Ab 13
r1
Ju 3
l-1
O 3
ut
-1
Jan 3
Ab 14
r1
Ju 4
l-1
O 4
ut
-1
4
0%
Portugal
Alemanha
Espanha
Grcia
OUTROS
0%
USO MISTO
2%
Milhes de
RETALHO
56%
1.400
1.200
1.000
900
800
400
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
1 Semestre
12
ESCRITRIOS
26%
2011
2012
2 Semestre
2013
2014
MARKETBEAT
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Industrial (Yield Bruta)
Escritrios (Yield Bruta)
CONTACTOS
Managing Partner
Research e Consultoria
eric.vanleuven@eur.cushwake.com
marta.costa@eur.cushwake.com
Retalho
Sandra Campos
Ricardo Reis
sandra.campos@eur.cushwake.com
ricardo.reis@eur.cushwake.com
Escritrios
Gesto Imobiliria
Carlos Oliveira
Bruno Silva
carlos.oliveira@eur.cushwake.com
bruno.silva@eur.cushwake.com
Industrial e Terrenos
Gesto de Projetos
Ana Gomes
Matthew Smith
ana.gomes@eur.cushwake.com
matthew.smith@eur.cushwake.com
Investimento
Luis Antunes
luis.antunes@eur.cushwake.com
Andr Navarro
andre.navarro@eur.cushwake.com
Este relatrio contm informao publicamente disponvel, e foi utilizada pela Cushman & Wakefield no
pressuposto de ser correta e verdadeira. A Cushman & Wakefield declina qualquer responsabilidade, caso se
venha a verificar o contrrio. Nenhuma garantia ou representao, expressa ou implcita, feita veracidade da
informao contida neste relatrio, e a mesma disponibilizada sujeita a erros.
2015 Cushman & Wakefield. Direitos reservados.
www.cushmanwakefield.pt
13
www.cushmanwakefield.pt
MARKETBEAT
PORTUGAL
SPRING 2015
GROWING ECONOMY
Economy
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Annual growth rate - 2001/2016*
% Annual Growth
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*
Private Consumption (1)
GDP (1)
Inflation (2)
Source: INE; Bank of Portugal (December 14); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(November 14)
* Forecast
SPRING 201515
SPRING 2015
2015
GDP (1)
INFLATION (2)
Bank of Portugal
0.9%
-0.1%
1.5%
0.7%
EC
1.3%
0.6%
1.7%
0.9%
IMF
1.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.1%
OECD
0.8%
-0.2%
1.5%
0.2%
Source: Bank of Portugal (December 14); EC - European Comission (November 14); IMF - International Monetary Fund
(November 14); OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (November 14)
(1) Annual Growth Rate
The retail sales index reflects the upturn of the sector in Portugal.
The total index, across the whole of 2014 recorded low monthly
over 2013 growth, with an annual average of 87.2, up 1.2%
year-on-year. This evolution was largely driven by the good
performance of the non-food sector, whose annual average of
82.5, up 2.5% over 2013, showed that consumers have opened
their purse-strings with regards to non-essential consumer
goods. Food products, in turn, remained stable compared to
2013, at 92.9.
Demand continues to be especially geared to good shopping
centres and high street retail, with the latter sector registering
a particularly intense dynamic in Lisbons main shopping streets
such as Avenida da Liberdade, Baixa and Chiado and Portos
Clrigos zone. As these locations are considered to be
16
100
90
80
70
Jan
-1
Ap 0
r10
Ju
l-1
O 0
ct
-1
Jan 0
-1
Ap 1
r11
Ju
l-1
O 1
ct
-1
Jan 1
-1
Ap 2
r12
Ju
l-1
O 2
ct
-1
Jan 2
-1
Ap 3
r13
Ju
l-1
O 3
ct
-1
Jan 3
-1
Ap 4
r14
Ju
l-1
O 4
ct
-1
4
Source: INE
Food retail
MARKETBEAT
350
4.00
300
3.75
250
3.50
Millions of sq.m
Thousands of sq.m
200
3.25
150
2.75
100
2.50
50
0
2.25
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
17
SPRING 2015
18
Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-15%
Footfall Index
Sales Index
Shopping Centre
Retail Parks
/sq.m/month
72.5
8.5
95.0
40.0
MARKETBEAT
ACTIVITY INCREASE
Offices
Thousands of sq.m
200
150
100
50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1st Half
2012
2013
2014
2nd Half
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
2013
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
2014
Parque das Naes (zone 5) was the zone with the third
highest take-up at 20,000 sq.m, accompanied by the
New Office Zones (zone 3), with 19,500 sq.m.
The same international entity was responsible for the
largest occupancy deals in both zones, taking up 3,200 sq.m
in the Arts Business Centre (zone 5) and 10,100 sq.m
in Torres Colombo (zone 3).
Except for the Secondary Office Zones (zone 4), which
have historically recorded the lowest overall values,
all other zones increased their occupancy levels.
19
SPRING 2015
20
35
140
30
120
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
20
0
0-100
101- 500
501- 1,000
GLA (sq.m)
1,001- 2,000
2,001- 5,000
Nr. of Deals
+ 5,000
Nr. of Deals
With a total 239 operations, the average area per deal was
529 sq.m. This was up 26% over 2013 and 14% over the last
five years average. 78% of deals continued to be for less
than 500 sq.m, although 10 deals accounted for more than
2,000 sq.m or 41% of total take-up.
MARKETBEAT
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
2013
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
2014
PIPELINE - 2015/2017
Thousands of sq.m
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
RENTS - 2014
ZONE
Average
(/sq.m/month)
Prime
(/sq.m/month)
16.0
18.5
13.0
15.0
8.0
11.0
Out of Town
21
SPRING 2015
POSITIVE EVOLUTION
Industrial
Portugals property market continues to be heavily influenced
by the evolution of the domestic economy. The last seven
years have been years of stagnation, particularly in the
industrial and logistics segments. In spite of the visible
improvements across the economy in 2014, they have not
significantly morphed into demand for industrial property.
Millions of
10
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-5
0
-10,000
-10
-20,000
-15
-30,000
-20
2007
2008
2009
Exports
2010
Imports
2011
2012
2013
2014
Trade Balance
Jan
Ap 09
r0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ct
-0
Jan 9
Ap 10
r1
Ju 0
l-1
O 0
ct
-1
Jan 0
Ap 11
r1
Ju 1
l-1
O 1
ct
-1
Jan 1
Ap 12
r1
Ju 2
l-1
O 2
ct
-1
Jan 2
Ap 13
r1
Ju 3
l-1
O 3
ct
-1
Jan 3
Ap 14
r1
Ju 4
l-1
O 4
ct
-1
4
-25
Portugal
22
Source: INE
Euro Area
MARKETBEAT
AXIS
ZONES
RENT RANGES
PRACTICED (/sq.m/month)
Alverca - Azambuja
3.25 - 3.75
Almada - Setbal
Loures
Montijo - Alcochete
Sintra - Cascais
Greater Porto
OFFER
DEMAND
High
Moderate
2.00 - 2.75
High
Low
3.50 - 3.75
Moderate
Low
3.00 - 3.50
Moderate
Low
3.50 - 4.00
Low
Low
3.50 - 3.75
Low
Moderate
NEW HIGHS
Hotels
The year of 2014 was a broadly positive year for domestic
hotels, which achieved new diverse tourism records. Such
good results from hotel operations fuelled a spurt of activity
in the property market in this sector, by operators and
investors.
Demand was up 12.0% to around 16.1 million guests across
the period 2013 - 2014. Domestic tourism establishments also
posted a record total of 46.1 million bednights, with the
average length of stay remaining unchanged at 2.9 nights.
The net occupancy rate per bed was up 2.7 percentage points
over 2013 to 43.9% in 2014.
Hotel revenues rose sharply by 12.8% to 2,204.1 million,
resulting in a 1.6% increase of revenues per bed night to
47.8. Average revenues per available room (RevPAR)
were up 9.5% in 2014 over the preceding year to 33.1.
2010
2011
2012
2013
Guests (million)
13.5
14.0
13.8
14.4
Bednights (million)
37.4
39.4
39.7
41.6
Hotel revenues
(million )
Revenues per
bednight ()
2014
Var. %
Var. %
2013/14 2012/13
48.3
46.8
47.0
Source: INE
23
SPRING 2015
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
NORTH
CENTER
LISBON
2012
ALENTEJO
2013
ALGARVE
AZORES
MADEIRA
2014
Source: INE
OTHERS
25%
UK
24%
ITALY
3%
IRELAND
4%
GERMANY
14%
BRAZIL
4%
FRANCE
9%
NETHERLANDS
6%
SPAIN
11%
Source: INE
Growth was also the order of the day in all other regions,
albeit a marginal 0.9% in the Azores. The situation is likely to
change, in 2015, with the recently announced new routes to
the region in the form of low cost flights.
The annual growth rate in domestic demand, in 2014 was up
13% to 13.8 million bednights, having even outpaced foreign
24
MARKETBEAT
MODERATE GROWTH
Residential
2,100
3,000
1,800
2,500
1,500
2,000
1,200
1,500
900
1,000
600
500
300
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Fonte: SIR
3,500
Jan
M 11
ar
M 11
ay
-1
Ju 1
lSe 11
p
N -11
ov
Jan 11
M 12
ar
M 12
ay
-1
Ju 2
lSe 12
p
N -12
ov
-1
Jan 2
M 13
ar
M 13
ay
-1
Ju 3
lSe 13
p
N -13
ov
Jan 13
M 14
ar
M 14
ay
-1
Ju 4
lSe 14
p
N -14
ov
-1
4
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
LISBON AND PORTO METROPOLITAN AREAS
FIRST TO THIRD QUARTER 2009/2014
Nr. of house sales
Source: INE
25
SPRING 2015
HIGHER DEMAND
Investment
In 2014 property investment in the commercial sector
provided definitive proof of the reversal of the negative
market trend since 2008. Higher demand across all type
of investors and sectors reflected in higher transaction
volumes and consequent yield compression.
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
OTHER
0%
Jan
Ap 09
r0
Ju 9
l-0
O 9
ct
-0
Jan 9
Ap 10
r1
Ju 0
l-1
O 0
ct
-1
Jan 0
Ap 11
r1
Ju 1
l-1
O 1
ct
-1
Jan 1
Ap 12
r1
Ju 2
l-1
O 2
ct
-1
Jan 2
Ap 13
r1
Ju 3
l-1
O 3
ct
-1
Jan 3
Ap 14
r1
Ju 4
l-1
O 4
ct
-1
4
0%
Portugal
Germany
Spain
Greece
MIXED USE
2%
INDUSTRIAL
16%
OFFICE
26%
RETAIL
56%
Millions of
2008
2009
1st Half
26
2010
2011
2nd Half
2012
2013
2014
MARKETBEAT
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Industrial (Gross Yield)
Office (Gross Yield)
CONTACTS
Managing Partner
eric.vanleuven@eur.cushwake.com
marta.costa@eur.cushwake.com
Retail
Sandra Campos
Ricardo Reis
sandra.campos@eur.cushwake.com
ricardo.reis@eur.cushwake.com
Offices
Carlos Oliveira
Bruno Silva
carlos.oliveira@eur.cushwake.com
bruno.silva@eur.cushwake.com
Project Management
Ana Gomes
Matthew Smith
ana.gomes@eur.cushwake.com
matthew.smith@eur.cushwake.com
Capital Markets
Luis Antunes
Andr Navarro
luis.antunes@eur.cushwake.com
andre.navarro@eur.cushwake.com
This document contains general information and it has been used by Cushman & Wakefield on the assumption
that it is correct and accurate. Cushman & Wakefield declines all responsibility if this is not the case. No warranty
or representation, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is
submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental, or other conditions, and withdrawal without notice or
at the request of our clients.
2015 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved.
www.cushmanwakefield.pt
27
www.cushmanwakefield.pt