Exemplo - Compreendendo o mecanismo multiplicador

Dados do exerccio 2 do Blanchard (p. 57)

Modelo Parmetros
C(0) = 100
Yt = Ct+It+Gt c1 = 0.8 I(0) = 200 Mult = 5.00
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1-Tt) T(0) = 100 G(0) = 100 Yequil = 1600.0
T = constante G = 10 Yequil = 1650.0 3.13%
Perodo Cc01*(Yt-1-Tt) Ct dC/dt It Gt Yt T T-G T-G) dY/dt
0 100 1200 1300 200 100 1600.0 100 0 -
1 100 1200 1300 0.0 200 110 1610.0 100 -10 -10 10.00
2 100 1208 1308 8.0 200 110 1618.0 100 -10 -20 8.00
3 100 1214 1314 6.4 200 110 1624.4 100 -10 -30 6.40
4 100 1220 1320 5.1 200 110 1629.5 100 -10 -40 5.12
5 100 1224 1324 4.1 200 110 1633.6 100 -10 -50 4.10
6 100 1227 1327 3.3 200 110 1636.9 100 -10 -60 3.28
7 100 1230 1330 2.6 200 110 1639.5 100 -10 -70 2.62
8 100 1232 1332 2.1 200 110 1641.6 100 -10 -80 2.10
9 100 1233 1333 1.7 200 110 1643.3 100 -10 -90 1.68
10 100 1235 1335 1.3 200 110 1644.6 100 -10 -100 1.34
11 100 1236 1336 1.1 200 110 1645.7 100 -10 -110 1.07
12 100 1237 1337 0.9 200 110 1646.6 100 -10 -120 0.86
13 100 1237 1337 0.7 200 110 1647.3 100 -10 -130 0.69
14 100 1238 1338 0.5 200 110 1647.8 100 -10 -140 0.55
15 100 1238 1338 0.4 200 110 1648.2 100 -10 -150 0.44
16 100 1239 1339 0.4 200 110 1648.6 100 -10 -160 0.35
17 100 1239 1339 0.3 200 110 1648.9 100 -10 -170 0.28
18 100 1239 1339 0.2 200 110 1649.1 100 -10 -180 0.23
19 100 1239 1339 0.2 200 110 1649.3 100 -10 -190 0.18
20 100 1239 1339 0.1 200 110 1649.4 100 -10 -200 0.14
21 100 1240 1340 0.1 200 110 1649.5 100 -10 -210 0.12
... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1649.8 ... ... ... ...
n 100 1240 1340 0 200 110 1650.0 100 -10 0

Dinmica de Transio Nvel de Renda Dinmica de Transio - Variaes no consumo

1660.0 10.0
1640.0 8.0
1620.0 6.0
1600.0 4.0
1580.0 2.0
1560.0 0.0
Lista Exerccio Multiplicador Simples - Exemplo 1: Aumento permanente nos gastos
Modelo Parmetros
c1 = 0.8
Yt = Ct+It C(0) = 100 Mult = 5.00
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1) I(0) = 50 Yequil = 750.0
I = 50 Yequil = 1000.0 33.33%
Perodo C0 c1*(Yt-1) Ct dC/dt It Yt
0 100 600 700 50 750.0
1 100 600 700 0.0 100 800.0
2 100 640 740 40.0 100 840.0
3 100 672 772 32.0 100 872.0
4 100 698 798 25.6 100 897.6
5 100 718 818 20.5 100 918.1
6 100 734 834 16.4 100 934.5
7 100 748 848 13.1 100 947.6
8 100 758 858 10.5 100 958.1
9 100 766 866 8.4 100 966.4
10 100 773 873 6.7 100 973.2
11 100 779 879 5.4 100 978.5
12 100 783 883 4.3 100 982.8
13 100 786 886 3.4 100 986.3
14 100 789 889 2.7 100 989.0
15 100 791 891 2.2 100 991.2
16 100 793 893 1.8 100 993.0
17 100 794 894 1.4 100 994.4
18 100 795 895 1.1 100 995.5
19 100 796 896 0.9 100 996.4
20 100 797 897 0.7 100 997.1
21 100 798 898 0.6 100 997.7
... ... ... ... ... ...
n 100 800 900 1 100 1000.0
nte nos gastos
Vrios Modelos

Modelo/Parmetros Y(0) = 370 C(0) = 200

Yt = Ct+It+Gt co = 100 I(0) = 20
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1-Tt) c1 = 0.8 G(0) = 150
Tt=t.Yt-1 t = 0.1 G = 15
Perodo C I G Y T T-G DY
1
0 200 20 150 370 37 -113 - Y= (c + I + G)
1 366 20 165 551 55 -110 181 1c1 (1t) o
2 497 20 165 682 68 -97 131
3 591 20 165 776 78 -87 94
4 659 20 165 844 84 -81 68
5 708 20 165 893 89 -76 49
6 743 20 165 928 93 -72 35
7 768 20 165 953 95 -70 25
8 786 20 165 971 97 -68 18
9 799 20 165 984 98 -67 13
10 809 20 165 994 99 -66 9
11 815 20 165 1000 100 -65 7
12 820 20 165 1005 101 -64 5
13 824 20 165 1008.80 101 -64 4
14 826 20 165 1011.34 101 -64 3
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
n 1017.86 ...

1
Y c 0 c1TR I G
[1 c1(1 t)]

Exerccio em Sala
Modelo/Parmetros Y(0) = 240 C(0) = 100
Yt = Ct+It+Gt co = 100 I(0) = 40
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1-Tt) c1 = 0.85 G(0) = 100
Tt=t.Yt-1 t = 0.25 G = 10
Perodo C C I G TR Y T T-G DY
0 2274 40 100 20 2414 603 503 -
1 1656 -617.95 40 110 20 1806 181 71 -608
2 1268 -387.57 40 110 20 1418 142 32 -388
3 1021 -247.07 40 110 20 1171 117 7 -247
4 864 -157.51 40 110 20 1014 101 -9 -158
5 763 -100.41 40 110 20 913 91 -19 -100
6 699 -64.01 40 110 20 849 85 -25 -64
7 658 -40.81 40 110 20 808 81 -29 -41
8 632 -26.02 40 110 20 782 78 -32 -26
9 616 -16.58 40 110 20 766 77 -33 -17
10 605 -10.57 40 110 20 755 76 -34 -11
11 598 -6.74 40 110 20 748 75 -35 -7
12 594 -4.30 40 110 20 744 74 -36 -4
13 591 -2.74 40 110 20 741 74 -36 -3
14 590 -1.75 40 110 20 740 74 -36 -2
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
n ...

Multiplicador Simples - Exemplo 1: Aumento permanente nos gastos

Modelo/Parmetros
Yt = Ct+It+Gt C(0) = 50
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1-Tt+TR) c1 = 0.9 I(0) = 40 Mult = 10.00
T(0) = 100 G(0) = 100 Yequil = 1000.0
T = constante TR = 0 G = 10 Yequil = 1100.0 10.00%
Perodo C0c1*(Yt-1-Tt) Ct Ct It Gt TRt Yt T T-G T-Gacum dY/dt
0 50 810 860 40 100 0 1000.0 100 0 -
1 50 810 860 0.0 40 110 0 1010.0 100 -10 -10 10.00
2 50 819 869 9.0 40 110 0 1019.0 100 -10 -20 9.00
3 50 827 877 8.1 40 110 0 1027.1 100 -10 -30 8.10
4 50 834 884 7.3 40 110 0 1034.4 100 -10 -40 7.29
5 50 841 891 6.6 40 110 0 1041.0 100 -10 -50 6.56
6 50 847 897 5.9 40 110 0 1046.9 100 -10 -60 5.90
7 50 852 902 5.3 40 110 0 1052.2 100 -10 -70 5.31
8 50 857 907 4.8 40 110 0 1057.0 100 -10 -80 4.78
9 50 861 911 4.3 40 110 0 1061.3 100 -10 -90 4.30
10 50 865 915 3.9 40 110 0 1065.1 100 -10 -100 3.87
11 50 869 919 3.5 40 110 0 1068.6 100 -10 -110 3.49
12 50 872 922 3.1 40 110 0 1071.8 100 -10 -120 3.14
13 50 875 925 2.8 40 110 0 1074.6 100 -10 -130 2.82
14 50 877 927 2.5 40 110 0 1077.1 100 -10 -140 2.54
15 50 879 929 2.3 40 110 0 1079.4 100 -10 -150 2.29
16 50 881 931 2.1 40 110 0 1081.5 100 -10 -160 2.06
17 50 883 933 1.9 40 110 0 1083.3 100 -10 -170 1.85
18 50 885 935 1.7 40 110 0 1085.0 100 -10 -180 1.67
19 50 886 936 1.5 40 110 0 1086.5 100 -10 -190 1.50
20 50 888 938 1.4 40 110 0 1087.8 100 -10 -200 1.35
21 50 889 939 1.2 40 110 0 1089.1 100 -10 -210 1.22
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 1094.5 ... ... ... ...
n 50 900 950 0 40 110 1100.0 100 -10 0

Dinmica de Transio do Nvel de Renda Dinmica de Transio - Variaes no consumo

1150.0
10.0
1100.0 8.0

1050.0 6.0

4.0
1000.0
2.0
950.0 0.0

Multiplicador Simples - Mudanas na PMgC

Modelo Parmetros
C(0) = 50
Yt = Ct+It+Gt c1 = 0.85 I(0) = 40 Mult = 6.67
Ct=co+c1.(Yt-1-Tt) T = 100 G(0) = 100 Yequil = 700.0
T = constante TR = 0 G = 10 Yequil = 766.7 9.52%
Perodo C0c1*(Yt-1-Tt) Ct Ct It Gt TRt Yt T T-G T-Gacum dY/dt
0 50 510 560 40 100 0 700.0 100 0 -
1 50 510 560 0 40 110 0 710.0 100 -10 -10 10.00
2 50 519 569 9 40 110 0 718.5 100 -10 -20 8.50
3 50 526 576 7 40 110 0 725.7 100 -10 -30 7.23
4 50 532 582 6 40 110 0 731.9 100 -10 -40 6.14
5 50 537 587 5 40 110 0 737.1 100 -10 -50 5.22
6 50 542 592 4 40 110 0 741.5 100 -10 -60 4.44
7 50 545 595 4 40 110 0 745.3 100 -10 -70 3.77
8 50 549 599 3 40 110 0 748.5 100 -10 -80 3.21
9 50 551 601 3 40 110 0 751.2 100 -10 -90 2.72
10 50 554 604 2 40 110 0 753.5 100 -10 -100 2.32
11 50 556 606 2 40 110 0 755.5 100 -10 -110 1.97
12 50 557 607 2 40 110 0 757.2 100 -10 -120 1.67
13 50 559 609 1 40 110 0 758.6 100 -10 -130 1.42
14 50 560 610 1 40 110 0 759.8 100 -10 -140 1.21
15 50 561 611 1 40 110 0 760.8 100 -10 -150 1.03
16 50 562 612 1 40 110 0 761.7 100 -10 -160 0.87
17 50 562 612 1 40 110 0 762.5 100 -10 -170 0.74
18 50 563 613 1 40 110 0 763.1 100 -10 -180 0.63
19 50 564 614 1 40 110 0 763.6 100 -10 -190 0.54
20 50 564 614 0 40 110 0 764.1 100 -10 -200 0.46
21 50 564 614 0 40 110 0 764.5 100 -10 -210 0.39
... ... ... ... ... ... ... 765.6 ... ... ... ...
n 50 567 614 0 40 110 766.7 100 -10 0

Dinmica de Transio do Nvel de Renda Dinmica de Transio - Variaes no consumo

780.0
10
760.0
8
740.0
6
720.0
4
700.0
2
680.0
0
660.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
 Modelo I Y = C + I + G
C = co + c1(Y-T)
Situao InT = t.Y a.) Aumento dos Gastos b.) Diminuio do IR
Parmetro co = 100 Parmetr co = 100 Parmetr co =
I = 20 I = 20 I=
1
= (c + I + G) G = 150 G = 150 G=
1c1 (1t) o c1 = 0.8 c1 = 0.8 c1 =
t = 0.2 t = 0.2 t=
G = 15

Multiplicador 2.778 Multiplicador 2.778 Multiplicador

Y(equilbrio) 750.0 Y(equilbrio) 791.7 Y(equilbrio)
Y (PIB) 5.6% Y (PIB)
Arrecadao (T = t.Y) 150.0 Arrecadao (T = t.Y) 158.3 Arrecadao (T = t.Y)
Gastos (G + TR) 150.0 Gastos (G + TR) 165.0 Gastos (G + TR)
Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G - 0.0 Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G- -6.7 Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G

ModeloY = C + I + G
C = co + c1(Y-T+TR)
Situao InT = t.Y a.) Aumento dos Gastos b.) Aumento das Transferncias
Parmetro co = 400 Parmetr co = 100 Parmetr co =
I= 100 I = 40 I=
c 0 c1TR I G G= 250 G = 250 G=
t)] TR = 50 TR = 20 TR =
c1 = 0.90 c1 = 0.85 c1 =
t = 0.15 t = 0.25 t=
G = 10 TR =
Multiplicador 4.255 Multiplicador 2.759 Multiplicador
Y(equilbrio) 3,383.0 Y(equilbrio) 1,150.3 Y(equilbrio)
Y (PIB) -66.0% Y (PIB)
Arrecadao (T = t.Y) 507.4 Arrecadao (T = t.Y) 287.6 Arrecadao (T = t.Y)
Gastos (G + TR) 300.0 Gastos (G + TR) 280.0 Gastos (G + TR)
Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G - 207.4 Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G- 7.6 Dficit/Sup Gov (T-G
umo

2 2 2
1 2 3
 100
20
150
0.8
0.1667

3.000
810.0
8.0%
135.0
150.0
-15.0

das Transferncias c.) Diminuio do Imposto de Renda

100 Parmetr co = 100
40 I = 40
250 G = 250
20 TR = 20
0.85 c1 = 0.85
0.25 t = 0.22
10
2.759 Multiplicador 2.967
1,146.2 Y(equilbrio) 1,207.7
-66.1% Y (PIB) -64.3%
286.6 Arrecadao (T = t.Y 265.7 -241.7
280.0 Gastos (G + TR) 270.0
6.6 Dficit/Sup Gov (T- -4.3