ANALISIS Y TRATAMIENTO DE DATOS DE DESCARGA

DESCARGAS MAXIMAS ANUALES DEL RIO LA LECHE (1962-2001)

Caudal Caudal F (no excd.)

N Ao T T/(T-1) log X Q*X Q2 X2
(m/seg) Ordenado
1 1962 41.80 579.75 41.00 1.03 0.01 -1.97 -1141.90 336110.06 3.88 97.6
2 1963 27.20 500.00 20.50 1.05 0.02 -1.66 -831.58 250000.00 2.77 95.1
3 1964 38.48 215.81 13.67 1.08 0.03 -1.48 -319.72 46575.25 2.19 92.7
4 1965 55.88 210.13 10.25 1.11 0.04 -1.35 -283.85 44154.62 1.82 90.2
5 1966 34.53 179.25 8.20 1.14 0.06 -1.25 -223.72 32130.56 1.56 87.8
6 1967 34.75 155.00 6.83 1.17 0.07 -1.16 -180.26 24025.00 1.35 85.4
7 1968 27.77 133.80 5.86 1.21 0.08 -1.09 -145.83 17902.44 1.19 82.9
8 1969 51.50 114.54 5.13 1.24 0.09 -1.03 -117.47 13118.95 1.05 80.5
9 1970 51.13 105.25 4.56 1.28 0.11 -0.97 -101.89 11077.56 0.94 78.0
10 1971 133.80 88.91 4.10 1.32 0.12 -0.92 -81.41 7904.28 0.84 75.6
11 1972 179.25 72.30 3.73 1.37 0.14 -0.87 -62.72 5227.15 0.75 73.2
12 1973 105.25 68.73 3.42 1.41 0.15 -0.82 -56.55 4723.13 0.68 70.7
13 1974 58.22 62.38 3.15 1.46 0.17 -0.78 -48.71 3891.26 0.61 68.3
14 1975 210.13 59.03 2.93 1.52 0.18 -0.74 -43.76 3484.66 0.55 65.9
15 1976 47.00 58.22 2.73 1.58 0.20 -0.70 -40.97 3389.57 0.50 63.4
16 1977 72.30 58.13 2.56 1.64 0.21 -0.67 -38.82 3379.10 0.45 61.0
17 1978 68.73 55.88 2.41 1.71 0.23 -0.63 -35.40 3122.57 0.40 58.5
18 1979 23.98 53.31 2.28 1.78 0.25 -0.60 -32.00 2841.96 0.36 56.1
19 1980 34.35 51.50 2.16 1.86 0.27 -0.57 -29.25 2652.25 0.32 53.7
20 1981 47.31 51.13 2.05 1.95 0.29 -0.54 -27.44 2614.28 0.29 51.2
21 1982 24.82 49.08 1.95 2.05 0.31 -0.51 -24.84 2408.55 0.26 48.8
22 1983 215.81 47.31 1.86 2.16 0.33 -0.48 -22.53 2238.52 0.23 46.3
23 1984 114.54 47.00 1.78 2.28 0.36 -0.45 -21.00 2209.19 0.20 43.9
24 1985 40.88 41.80 1.71 2.41 0.38 -0.42 -17.45 1747.24 0.17 41.5
25 1986 88.91 40.88 1.64 2.56 0.41 -0.39 -15.89 1670.77 0.15 39.0
26 1987 49.08 40.49 1.58 2.73 0.44 -0.36 -14.57 1639.76 0.13 36.6
27 1988 27.08 38.48 1.52 2.93 0.47 -0.33 -12.74 1480.71 0.11 34.1
28 1989 59.03 34.75 1.46 3.15 0.50 -0.30 -10.50 1207.56 0.09 31.7
29 1990 30.91 34.53 1.41 3.42 0.53 -0.27 -9.42 1192.32 0.07 29.3
30 1991 40.49 34.35 1.37 3.73 0.57 -0.24 -8.35 1179.65 0.06 26.8
31 1992 58.13 30.91 1.32 4.10 0.61 -0.21 -6.57 955.49 0.05 24.4
32 1993 53.31 27.77 1.28 4.56 0.66 -0.18 -5.04 771.17 0.03 22.0
33 1994 17.26 27.20 1.24 5.13 0.71 -0.15 -4.05 739.84 0.02 19.5
34 1995 23.45 27.08 1.21 5.86 0.77 -0.11 -3.11 733.06 0.01 17.1
35 1996 21.00 24.82 1.17 6.83 0.83 -0.08 -1.95 616.23 0.01 14.6
36 1997 21.00 23.98 1.14 8.20 0.91 -0.04 -0.94 575.14 0.00 12.2
37 1998 579.75 23.45 1.11 10.25 1.01 0.00 0.11 549.90 0.00 9.8
38 1999 62.38 21.00 1.08 13.67 1.14 0.06 1.16 441.00 0.00 7.3
39 2000 155.00 21.00 1.05 20.50 1.31 0.12 2.47 441.00 0.01 4.9
40 2001 500.00 17.26 1.03 41.00 1.61 0.21 3.58 297.91 0.04 2.4
SUMATORIA = 3526.18 -23.93 -4014.87526 841419.65 24.15
CAUDAL MEDIO= 88.155
 ANALISIS Y TRATAMIENTO DE DATOS DE DESCARGA
ANALISIS DE MAXIMAS AVENIDAS

1.- METODO GUMBEL

Se dispone de la serie de descargas mximas del ro LA LECHE en la estacin PUCHACA durante el

periodo de 1962 a 2001, es decir N = 40 aos. En la tabla se muestra la serie.
Clculo para 4 periodos de retorno: 10, 50, 100 y 200

Frmulas a utilizar:

Donde:
( N+ 1) T = periodo de retorno del evento.
T= F = frecuencia de ocurrencia del evento.
m Qm= media de la serie de avenidas.
Qi = avenida del ao i.
= desviacin estandar.
1 m = nmero de orden, siendo m=1 para la mayor avenida,
F=1 m=Ncorrespondiente a la menor avenida.
T
N = nmero total de datos de avenidas.
Q = avenida correspondiente al periodo de retorno T.
T

Q m=
Qi
N
=
[ ( Q i Q m )2
( N 1 )
1
2 ]
Q promedio = 88.15

= 116.64

N DE PERIODOS DE RETORNO = 4

T (aos) Qt (m3/seg)
10 240.32
50 390.52
100 454.02
200 517.28

QT =Qm { 0. 45+0 .7797Ln [ LnT Ln ( T 1 ) ] }

2.- METODO DE NASH

Q= 3526.18
Q2 = 841419.65
X= -23.93
X2= 24.15
Q*X = -4014.88

CALCULO DE Qm y Xm

Qm = 88.15

Xm = -0.53

CALCULO DE LOS PARAMETROS a y b

b = -166.85
a = -0.58

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

T = 10 0.04575749 -1.3395378 Qmax = 222.92 m3/seg

T = 50 0.00877392 -2.05680612 Qmax = 342.59 m3/seg
T = 100 0.00436481 -2.36003511 Qmax = 393.19 m3/seg
T = 200 0.00217692 -2.66215768 Qmax = 443.60 m3/seg

CALCULO DEL INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

T = 10 -1.3395378 Q = 76.33 Sxx = 513.8279119301

T = 50 -2.05680612 Q = 100.53 Sqq = 25429931.78998
T = 100 -2.36003511 Q = 111.04 Sxq = -96279.8852324
T = 200 -2.66215768 Q = 121.61

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL DE DISEO

T = 10 Qd = 299.25 m3/seg
T = 50 Qd = 443.12 m3/seg
T = 100 Qd = 504.22 m3/seg
T = 200 Qd = 565.20 m3/seg
3.- METODO DE LEBEDIEV

((Q/Qm)-1) ((Q/Qm)-1)2 ((Q/Qm)-1)3 CALCULO DEL COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION (Cv)

-0.5258 0.2765 -0.1454
-0.6915 0.4781 -0.3306 Cv = 0.9416331
-0.5635 0.3175 -0.1789
-0.3661 0.1340 -0.0491 DETERMINACION DEL COEFICIENTE DE ASIMETRIA (Cs)
-0.6083 0.3700 -0.2251
-0.6058 0.3670 -0.2223 Cs = 4.3079959
-0.6850 0.4692 -0.3214
-0.4158 0.1729 -0.0719 . si la avenida es producida por una tormenta se tiene:
-0.4200 0.1764 -0.0741
0.5178 0.2681 0.1388 Cs = 2.8248993
1.0334 1.0678 1.1035
0.1939 0.0376 0.0073 Por lo tanto el Cs ser el de mayor valor:
-0.3396 0.1153 -0.0392
1.3837 1.9145 2.6490 Cs = 4.307996
-0.4668 0.2179 -0.1017
-0.1799 0.0323 -0.0058 OBTENCION DEL COEFICIENTE K:
-0.2204 0.0486 -0.0107
-0.7280 0.5299 -0.3858 Para T= 10 aos Para T= 50 aos
-0.6104 0.3726 -0.2274
-0.4633 0.2146 -0.0994 P% = 10.00 P% = 2.00
-0.7184 0.5161 -0.3708 Cs = 4.31 Cs = 4.31
1.4481 2.0971 3.0368 K= 1.03 K= 3.17
0.2993 0.0896 0.0268
-0.5363 0.2876 -0.1543 Para T= 100 aos Para T= 200 aos
0.0085 0.0001 0.0000
-0.4433 0.1965 -0.0871 P% = 1.00 P% = 0.50
-0.6929 0.4801 -0.3326 Cs = 4.31 Cs = 4.31
-0.3304 0.1091 -0.0361 K= 4.24 K= 5.30
-0.6494 0.4217 -0.2738
-0.5406 0.2923 -0.1580 CALCULO DE Er : (grafico)
-0.3406 0.1160 -0.0395
-0.3953 0.1562 -0.0618 Para T= 10 aos Para T= 50 aos
-0.8042 0.6467 -0.5201
-0.7340 0.5387 -0.3954 P% = 10.00 P% = 2.00
-0.7618 0.5803 -0.4421 Cv = 0.94 Cv = 0.94
-0.7618 0.5803 -0.4421 Er = 1.18 Er = 1.45
5.5765 31.0976 173.4163
-0.2924 0.0855 -0.0250 Para T= 100 aos Para T= 200 aos
0.7583 0.5750 0.4360
4.6719 21.8263 101.9692 P% = 1.00 P% = 0.50
Cv = 0.94 Cv = 0.94
 Er = 1.50 Er = 1.65

SUMA 68.2738 276.9562

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL MAXIMO

T= 10 T= 50
Qmax = 173.65 Qmax = 351.29

T= 100 T= 200
Qmax = 440.11 Qmax = 528.10

CALCULO DEL INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA:

para N = 40 aos, A = 0.4

para T = 10 aos para T = 50 aos

Q = 9.3407442 Q = 23.2195100518

para T = 100 aos para T = 200 aos

Q = 30.093361 Q = 12.0365932032

CALCULO DEL CAUDAL DE DISEO

T aos Qd (m3/seg)
10 182.99
50 374.51
100 470.21
200 540.14

COMPARACION DE LOS METODOS PARA PERIODOS DE RETORNOS

DE : 10, 50, 100 y 200 AOS

METODOS
T aos GUMBEL NASH LEBEDIEV
Qt (m3/seg) Qt (m3/seg) Qt (m3/seg)
10 240.32 299.25 182.99
50 390.52 443.12 374.51
100 454.02 504.22 470.21
200 517.28 565.20 540.14