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FUNCTIONAL
Point where
HEALTH
Failure Starts
Point of
to Occur
Functional
Failure F
FAILED
TIME
Information based
Organization & Equipment Reliability
Proactive
Data based
Predictive
(Effectiveness)
Time based
Preventive
$ $ Sources:
Maintenance Cost Expenditures •Society of Maintenance & Reliability
Professionals Survey
(Efficiency) •The Business Case for Reliability
Robert DiStefano, John Schultz
• Entretanto, se o objetivo é:
- Otimizar o uso dos ativos durante o ciclo de vida,
- Manter equipes de alta performance
- Reduzir custos de reparo e aumentar a produtividade
- Melhorar as ações de planejamento sobre ativos
- Melhorar de qualidade dos produtos e serviços prestados ao cliente
- Maximizar resultados
- Manter conformidade com Regulamentações
Os processos terão que ser repensados usando técnicas e ferramentas para Gestão de
Ativos.
Sensores Sistemas e
Modernos e Processos de
Conhecimento e
Grandes Trabalho
Experiência
Quantidades de Complexos
Dados
Mudança da
Estratégia Operação &
Risco (intervalo)
Manutenção
Direcionar o trabalho
(reparo)
Conectar / Colectar
Reevaluação do Dados de Sensores / Alertas /
Risco Eventos
Analytics Dados de Inspeção / Alertas / Eventos
+ Ações Históricos
Estratégias de
Visão Centralizada, Precisa Diagnóstico, Previsão e Manutenção
APM e Completa do Estado e Ação antes que o Ativo considerando custo,
Capacidades Saúde dos Ativos. Falhe confiabilidade e
performance
Softwares de Diagnóstico e Ferramentas de
Aquisição Analytics: Otimização:
Visualização de Dados de Alta Diagnóstico amplo e profundo, Optimização do Escopo de
através de ferramentas Trabalho
Densidade
especializadas, digital twins
More Refinement
Motor Current
Time
Trending
Single-sensor analysis or equation based models using traditional thresholds & rules
Alarm
Vibration Condition
Alarm Hi
Vibration
Metal Temp
Speed
Oil Temp
“Blue is True”
Where Your Data Is
“Green is Good”
Where Your Data Should Be
Deviations from
Healthy Patterns
System
1st Principles – Specifies solution
Modeling theory, irrespective of data.
Parametric – Assumes a form for
the solution and fits it to data.
1st Principles Nonparametric – No assumption
Modeling Empirical about solution form, totally data-
Modeling driven.
Design-based
Physics-based
Parametric
Non-
parametric
Kalman Filter
ARMA Similarity Based Modeling
Nonlinear regression Principle Component Analysis
Classical neural networks Support vector machines
Kernel regression
Sensor 1
Sensor 2
Training a Model involves selecting
Sensor 3 representative vectors (or patterns)
that characterize normal behavior.
Sensor 4
Sensor 5
t
Pattern 6
Selected sensor vectors define the Pattern 5
Vector 1
“State Matrix” Pattern 4
Vector 2 D= Pattern 3
Vector 3 Estimates use combinations of Pattern 2
Vector 4 “State Matrix” vectors Pattern 1
Vector 5
Vector 6
Mechanical Model
ESTIMATE ACTUAL
ALERTS INCIDENT
ACTUAL – ESTIMATE = RESIDUAL
Positive threshold
Dynamic band
Negative threshold
Key features
•A notification of a change in equipment behavior that
conforms to a fault pattern.
Bearing Temperature
Bearing Vibration
Positive and
Negative Residual
Thresholds
Residual
(Actual-Estimate) 32
33
34
Diagnostics
35
• Subsynch nX Orbit Shapes • Subsynch nX Frequency Fractions • Speed to Resonance Frequency Ratio
• Subsynch First nX Ellipticity Ratio • Subsynch First nX Frequency Fraction • Bearing Temperature to Max Ratio
• Subsynch Second nX Ellipticity Ratio • Subsynch Second nX Frequency Fraction
• Subsynch Third nX Ellipticity Ratio • Subsynch Third nX Frequency Fraction • Slow Roll Threshold Ratio
• Slow Roll Amp Ratio
• Subsynch nX Precession Directions • Subsynch nX Fwd/Rev Min/Max Amp Vibration Ratios
• Subsynch First nX Precession Direction • Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1 • Relative phase
• Subsynch Second nX Precession Direction • Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1 • Max Direct Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Precession Direction • Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 1 • 1X Max Short Trend Ratio
• Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2 • 1X Amplitude Setpoint Ratio
• Subsynch nX Forward Vibration Ratios • Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2 • Synchronous Vibration Ratio (per bearing)
• Subsynch First nX Forward Vibration Ratio • Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Min Amp Brg 2
• Subsynch Second nX Forward Vibration Ratio • Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1 • Vertical 3X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Forward Vibration Ratio • Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1 • Horizontal 3X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 1 • Vertical 5X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch nX Frequency Ratios • Subsynch First nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2 • Horizontal 5X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch First nX Frequency Ratio • Subsynch Second nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2 • Vertical 7X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch Second nX Frequency Ratio • Subsynch Third nX Fwd Rev Max Amp Brg 2 • Horizontal 7X Amplitude Ratio
• Subsynch Third nX Frequency Ratio
• Vertical Amplitude Modulation Magnitude
• Vertical Phase Modulation Magnitude
• Horizontal Amplitude Modulation Magnitude
Confidential. Not to be•copied, distributed,
Horizontal or reproduced
Phase Modulation without prior approval.
Magnitude
Extended Vibration Monitoring (EVM)
Your Data Advanced Bearing Predictive Empirical Modeling
Rotor Vibration Calculations
RPM
Bearing Metal Temp from System 1
Bearing Oil Inlet Temp Phase Unwrap (0-360o Discontinuity)
Bearing Oil Outfall Temp Amplitude, Phase:
Compensated
Advanced Vibration Forward
Overall Reverse
1X Amplitude, Phase Major, Minor 1X Axis
2X Amplitude, Phase Orbit Procession
½X Amplitude, Phase Ellipticity Ratio
DC Gap Orbit Shape
High 1X Synchronous Ratio
Process
Load Probe Check
Inlet Temp, Pressure Slow Roll Vector
Outlet Temp, Pressure
D Temp, Pressure
Flow
Journal Bearing Diagnostic
Misalignment
Radial Preload
High Synchronous Vibration
Sub-synchronous Rub
Rotor Bow
Time
Trending