P o p ula o m und ia l (e m m ilh e s d e ha b ita nte s )

7,000

Grfico 2.1. Crescimento da populao mundial, 1700-2012

6,000
5,000

sia

4,000

frica

3,000

Amrica

2,000

Europa

1,000
0
1700

1820

1870

1913

1950

1970

1990

A populao mundial passou de seiscentos milhes de habitantes em 1700 para sete bilhes em 2012.
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

2012

Taxa de crescimento da populao mundial

Taxas de
cresciment
o
observadas
Grfico 2.2. Taxa de crescimento da populao mundial desde a Antiguidade at 2100
2.0%
1.8%

Previses
ONU
(cenrio de
referncia)

1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%

A taxa de crescimento da populao mundial ultrapassou 1% ao ano de 1950 a 2012 e dever caminhar em direo a 0% at o final do sculo XXI.

0-1000 1000- 1500- 1700- 1820- 1913- 1950- 1970- 1990- 2012- 2030- 2050- 20701500 1700 1820 1913 1950 1970 1990 2012 2030 2050 2070 2100
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital

Taxa de crescimento da produo por habitante

Grfico 2.3. Taxa de crescimento da produo por habitante desde a Revoluo Industrial
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%

Europa Ocidental

3.0%

Amrica do Norte

2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1700-1820
1820-1870
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
A taxa de
crescimento da 1870-1913
produo por habitante
ultrapassou 4%
ao ano na Europa
de 1950 a 1970,1990-2012
antes de cair novamente para os nveis americanos.
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

Taxa de crescimento da produo por habitante

Previses
(cenrio de
referncia)
Taxas de
crescimento
Grfico 2.4. Taxa de crescimento da produo
mundial por habitante desde a Antiguidade at 2100
observadas
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%

0-1000 10001500

15001700

17001820

18201913

19131950

19501990

19902012

20122030

20302050

20502070

20702100

A taxa de crescimento da produo por habitante ultrapassou 2% de 1950 a 2012. Se o processo de convergncia continuar, ela ultrapassar 2,5% entre 2012 e 2050, caindo, depois, para abaixo de 1,5%.
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

Taxa de crescimento da produo total

Previses
(cenrio de
referncia)

Grfico 2.5. Taxa de crescimento da produo mundial total desde a Antiguidade at 2100
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%

Taxas de
cresciment
o
observadas

3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%

0-1000 1000- 1500- 1700- 1820- 1913- 1950- 1990- 2012- 2030- 2050- 2070A taxa
de crescimento
produo1913
mundial ultrapassou
4% entre 1950
Se o processo
continuar, ela cair para menos de 2% at 2050.
1500
1700 da
1820
1950
1990
2012e 1990.
2030
2050 de convergncia
2070
2100
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital

Taxa d e infla o (nd ic e d e p re o s p a ra o c o ns um id o r)

20.0%

Grfico 2.6. A inflao desde a Revoluo Industrial

18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%

Frana
Alemanha
Estados Unidos
Reino Unido

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
1700-1820
1820-1870 1870-1913 1913-1950 1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2012
A inflao nos pases ricos era nula nos sculos XVIII e XIX, alta no sculo XX, e desde 1990 mantm-se em torno de 2% ao ano.
Fontes e sries: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital

Tabela 2.1. O crescimento mundial desde a Revoluo Industrial

Taxa de crescimento
anual mdia

Produo mundial

Populao mundial

Produo por habitante

0-1700

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

1700-2012

1.6%

0.8%

0.8%

0.5%

0.4%

0.1%

1820-1913

1.5%

0.6%

0.9%

1913-2012

3.0%

1.4%

1.6%

Dos quais: 1700-1820

Entre 1913 e 2012, a taxa de crescimento do PIB mundial foi de, em mdia, 3,0% ao ano. Essa taxa pode ser
repartida entre 1,4% para a populao mundial e 1,6% para o PIB por habitante.
Fontes: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

Tabela 2.2. A lei do crescimento acumulado

Uma taxa de
crescimento
anual igual a

equivale a
uma taxa de
crescimento
geracional
(trinta anos)
de...

0.1%

3%

1.03

1.11

2.72

0.2%

6%

1.06

1.22

7.37

0.5%

16%

1.16

1.65

147

1.0%

35%

1.35

2.70

20,959

1.5%

56%

1.56

4.43

2,924,437

2.0%

81%

1.81

7.24

398,264,652

2.5%

110%

2.10

11.8

52,949,930,179

3.5%

181%

2.81

31.2

5.0%

332%

4.32

131.5

ou seja, uma
uma
e uma
multiplicao ao multiplicao ao multiplicao ao
fim de trinta fim de cem anos fim de mil anos
anos por um
por um
por um
coeficiente de coeficiente de coeficiente de

Uma taxa de crescimento de 1% ao ano equivale a um crescimento acumulado de 35% a cada gerao
(trinta anos), a uma multiplicao por 2,7 a cada cem anos e por mais de vinte mil a cada mil anos.

Tabela 2.3: O crescimento demogrfico desde a Revoluo Industrial

Taxa de crescimento
anual mdia

Populao mundial

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

0-1700

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

1700-2012

0.8%

0.6%

1.4%

0.9%

0.8%

1700-1820

0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

0.2%

0.5%

1820-1913

0.6%

0.8%

1.9%

0.6%

0.4%

1913-2012

1.4%

0.4%

1.7%

2.2%

1.5%

Previses 2012-2050

0.7%

-0.1%

0.6%

1.9%

0.5%

Previses 2050-2100

0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

1.0%

-0.2%

Entre 1913 e 2012, a taxa de crescimento da populao mundial foi de 1,4% ao ano, dos quais 0,4% para a Europa, 1,7% para a
Amrica etc.
Fontes: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital. As previses indicadas para a populao no perodo 2012-2100 correspondem ao cenrio
de referncia da ONU.

Tabela 2.4: Emprego por setor de atividade

na Frana e nos Estados Unidos, 1800-2012

(em % do
emprego total)

Frana

Estados Unidos

Agricultura

Indstria

Servios

Agricultura

Indstria

Servios

1800

64%

22%

14%

68%

18%

13%

1900

43%

29%

28%

41%

28%

31%

1950

32%

33%

35%

14%

33%

50%

2012

3%

21%

76%

2%

18%

80%

Em 2012, a agricultura representava 3% do emprego na Frana, contra 21% da indstria e 76% dos servios. A
construo, com 7% do emprego na Frana em 2012, assim como nos Estados Unidos, foi includa na rubrica
indstria.
Fontes: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

Tabela 2.5: O crescimento da produo por habitante desde a Revoluo Industrial

Taxa de crescimento
anual mdia

Produo mundial por

habitante

Europa

Amrica

frica

sia

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1700-2012

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

0.5%

0.7%

1700-1820

0.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

1820-1913

0.9%

1.0%

1.5%

0.4%

0.2%

1913-2012

1.6%

1.9%

1.5%

1.1%

2.0%

1913-1950

0.9%

0.9%

1.4%

0.9%

0.2%

1950-1970

2.8%

3.8%

1.9%

2.1%

3.5%

1970-1990

1.3%

1.9%

1.6%

0.3%

2.1%

1990-2012

2.1%

1.9%

1.5%

1.4%

3.8%

1950-1980

2.5%

3.4%

2.0%

1.8%

3.2%

1980-2012

1.7%

1.8%

1.3%

0.8%

3.1%

0-1700

Entre 1910 e 2010, a taxa de crescimento do PIB por habitante foi de 1,7% ao ano em mdia no mundo, dos quais
1,9% na Europa, 1,6% nas Amricas etc.
Fontes: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital.

Tabela S2.1: O crescimento mundial desde a Antiguidade

(taxa de crescimento por subperodo)

Taxa de crescimento
anual mdia

Produo mundial

Populao mundial

Produo por habitante

0.07%

0.06%

0.02%

0.01%

0.02%

0.00%

1000-1500

0.14%

0.10%

0.04%

1500-1700

0.20%

0.16%

0.04%

1.60%

0.79%

0.81%

1700-1820

0.53%

0.46%

0.07%

1820-1913

1.46%

0.56%

0.90%

1913-2012

3.04%

1.39%

1.62%

Previses 2012-2050

0.73%

Previses 2050-2100

0.17%

0-1700
0-1000

1700-2012

Entre 1913 e 2012, a taxa de crescimento do PIB mundial foi, em mdia, de 3,0% ao ano. Esta taxa se divide entre
1,4% para a populao mundial e 1,6% para o PIB por habitante.
Fontes: ver www.intrinseca.com.br/ocapital. As previses indicadas para populao em 2012-2100 correspondem ao
cenrio de referncia da ONU.

Tabela S2.2a. Taxa de crescimento da populao mundial

2100 (sries utilizadas no grfico 2.2)

0-1000
1000-1500
1500-1700
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012
2012-2030
2030-2050
2050-2070
2070-2100
2012-2030 (H)
2030-2050 (H)
2050-2070 (H)
2070-2100 (H)
2012-2030 (L)
2030-2050 (L)
2050-2070 (L)
2070-2100 (L)

0-

Populao
mundial (taxa
de
crescimento)

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
-0.3%
-1.0%

0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
1.0%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-1.4%

0.1%
0.1%
-0.2%
0.7%
1.9%
1.6%
2.2%
1.7%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
-0.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.7%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.3%

0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
1.6%
2.4%
2.8%
2.4%
2.1%
1.7%
1.3%
1.2%
2.4%
2.1%
1.7%
2.0%
1.8%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.9%
2.1%
2.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
-0.1%
-0.4%
1.1%
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
-0.1%
-0.7%
-1.9%

Fonte: Clculos do autor a partir das sries histricas de Angus Maddison,

"Historical statistics of the world economy 1-2008" (fevereiro 2010), das sries
oficiais Naes Unidas/Banco Mundial para o perodo de 1990-2012 (outubro
2012), e de projees oficiais da ONU para o perodo de 2012-2100 (UN
Population Prospects, verso de abril) (cenrio de referncia, seguido por
cenrio alto (H) e cenrio baixo (L)). A Rssia foi includa na Europa, e as antigas
repblicas da sia Central e da Oceania, na sia. Todos os detalhes esto
dentro do arquivo excel a seguir: os dados populao 0-2012 foram diretamente
copiados da tabela S1.2 (link destrudo no dia 8-2-2013); as projees foram
diretamente copiadas do arquivos WorldGDP.xls folhas TableW8, TableW8H e
Table W8L

Tabela S2.2b. Sries detalhadas para a taxa de crescimento da populao mundial 0-2100

0-1000
1000-1500
1500-1700
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012
2012-2030
2030-2050
2050-2070
2070-2100
2012-2030 (H)
2030-2050 (H)
2050-2070 (H)
2070-2100 (H)
2012-2030 (L)
2030-2050 (L)
2050-2070 (L)
2070-2100 (L)

Populao
mundial
(taxa de
crescimento)

Europa
Ocidental

Leste
Europeu

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
-0.3%
-1.0%

0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
1.0%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-1.1%

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.3%
1.0%
0.9%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.8%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-1.2%
-1.9%

Rssia
(+Ucrnia/ Amrica do
Bielorrssia/
Norte
Moldvia)
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
1.1%
0.4%
1.2%
0.4%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.9%
-0.6%
-0.9%
-1.2%
-1.7%

0.1%
0.1%
-0.3%
1.8%
2.5%
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
-0.1%
-0.6%

Tabela S2.2c. Populao mundial 0-2100

Amrica
Latina

Norte da
frica

frica
Subsaarian
a

China

ndia

Japo

Austrlia/NZ

0.1%
0.1%
-0.2%
0.5%
1.4%
2.0%
2.8%
2.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
-0.4%
1.2%
0.8%
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
-0.1%
-0.7%
-1.9%

0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
1.6%
2.4%
2.7%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.4%
1.4%
0.9%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.1%
-0.6%
-1.8%

0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
1.7%
2.4%
2.8%
2.6%
2.3%
1.9%
1.4%
1.3%
2.6%
2.2%
1.8%
2.1%
2.0%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%

0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.8%
0.1%
0.6%
2.0%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-0.9%
0.4%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.4%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-1.4%
-2.6%

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
2.1%
2.4%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
1.4%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
-0.6%
-1.9%

0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.6%
1.3%
1.1%
0.8%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.4%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.7%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.7%

0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
2.9%
1.5%
2.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.8%
1.2%
0.8%
0.2%
-0.2%
-0.7%

Oriente
Mdio (incl. sia Central
Turquia)
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.2%
2.8%
3.0%
2.2%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
1.7%
1.3%
1.0%
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
-0.1%
-0.9%

0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
1.1%
0.4%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
-0.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.6%
-1.5%

Outros
pases da
sia
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.9%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
0.1%
-0.6%
-1.7%

0
1000
1500
1700
1820
1913
1950
1970
1990
2012
2030 (M)
2050 (M)
2070 (M)
2100 (M)
2030 (H)
2050 (H)
2070 (H)
2100 (H)
2030 (L)
2050 (L)
2070 (L)
2100 (L)

Tabela S2.2d. Sries detalhadas para a populao mundial 0-2100

Populao
mundial
(milhes)

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

226
267
438
603
1,042
1,793
2,528
3,691
5,306
7,052
8,321
9,306
9,827
10,125
8,776
10,614
12,499
15,805
7,867
8,112
7,624
6,177

33
38
85
123
217
475
548
658
720
740
741
719
687
675
778
814
872
1,056
704
632
533
405

6
13
20
13
32
186
332
512
724
954
1,103
1,198
1,230
1,214
1,165
1,370
1,574
1,930
1,042
1,042
951
728

17
32
47
61
74
125
228
366
635
1,070
1,562
2,192
2,820
3,574
1,641
2,470
3,476
5,198
1,483
1,932
2,257
2,378

169
184
287
406
719
1,007
1,421
2,155
3,226
4,288
4,915
5,197
5,090
4,662
5,192
5,960
6,577
7,620
4,638
4,506
3,884
2,666

0
1000
1500
1700
1820
1913
1950
1970
1990
2012
2030 (M)
2050 (M)
2070 (M)
2100 (M)
2030 (H)
2050 (H)
2070 (H)
2100 (H)
2030 (L)
2050 (L)
2070 (L)
2100 (L)

Populao
mundial
(milhes)

Europa
Ocidental

Europa
Oriental

Rssia
(+Ucrnia/
Bielorrssia/
Moldvia)

226
267
438
603
1,042
1,793
2,528
3,691
5,306
7,052
8,321
9,306
9,827
10,125
8,776
10,614
12,499
15,805
7,867
8,112
7,624
6,177

25
26
57
81
133
261
306
353
376
414
430
433
426
430
450
486
531
652
410
384
337
269

5
7
14
19
36
80
88
108
130
126
122
113
103
95
129
129
133
154
116
99
78
54

3
6
15
23
47
134
154
197
215
201
189
173
158
150
199
199
208
250
179
149
118
83

Amrica do
Norte

Amrica
Latina

frica do
Norte

frica
subsaariana

China

ndia

Japo

Austrlia/NZ

Oriente
Mdio (incl.
Turquia)

sia Central

Outros
pases da
sia

1
1
2
1
11
105
166
227
281
351
402
447
485
526
421
501
598
777
382
396
388
342

6
11
18
12
22
81
165
285
443
603
702
751
745
688
743
869
976
1,154
660
646
563
385

9
11
8
9
11
25
44
71
120
171
208
231
233
216
221
266
300
349
196
200
178
124

8
22
38
52
63
100
184
295
516
899
1,354
1,960
2,587
3,358
1,421
2,204
3,177
4,849
1,287
1,732
2,079
2,254

60
59
103
138
381
437
547
818
1,145
1,354
1,393
1,296
1,126
941
1,467
1,479
1,464
1,587
1,319
1,130
853
506

75
75
110
165
209
304
359
541
874
1,258
1,523
1,692
1,708
1,551
1,612
1,953
2,223
2,570
1,435
1,457
1,295
880

3
8
15
27
31
52
84
104
122
126
120
109
98
91
126
121
123
142
115
97
77
55

0
0
1
1
0
6
10
15
20
27
33
37
40
42
35
42
49
62
31
33
32
27

19
20
18
21
25
39
60
103
187
300
387
463
505
528
409
527
638
815
365
404
395
327

1
1
2
4
8
22
25
46
67
79
92
99
101
97
97
115
131
159
86
86
76
55

11
21
38
51
64
148
336
527
811
1,143
1,366
1,502
1,513
1,411
1,446
1,724
1,949
2,285
1,286
1,299
1,156
815

Tabela S2.3: Sries detalhadas para o crescimento da produo por habitante desde a Revoluo Industrial

Produo
mundial por
habitante

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

0-1700
1700-2012
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-2012
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012
1950-1980
1980-2012

0.0%
0.8%
0.1%
0.9%
1.6%
0.9%
2.8%
1.3%
2.1%
2.5%
1.7%

0.0%
1.0%
0.1%
1.0%
1.9%
0.9%
3.8%
1.9%
1.9%
3.4%
1.8%

0.0%
1.1%
0.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.9%
1.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%

0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.4%
1.1%
0.9%
2.1%
0.3%
1.4%
1.8%
0.8%

0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.2%
2.0%
0.2%
3.5%
2.1%
3.8%
3.2%
3.1%

1820-1870
1870-1913

0.5%
1.3%

0.9%
1.2%

1.2%
2.0%

0.3%
0.6%

-0.1%
0.6%

2.6%
2.5%
1.5%
1.2%

1.8%
1.7%
1.2%
1.2%

1.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%

4.8%
3.8%
1.8%
1.4%

3.7%
3.2%
1.7%
1.4%

Produo
mundial por
habitante

Europa
Ocidental

Leste
Europeu

Rssia
(+Ucrnia/
Bielorrssia/
Moldvia)

Amrica do
Norte

Amrica
Latina

Norte da
frica

frica
Subsaariana

China

ndia

Japo

Austrlia/NZ

Oriente
Mdio (incl.
Turquia)

sia Central

Outros
pases da
sia

0-1700
1700-2012
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-2012
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012
1950-1980
1980-2012

0.0%
0.8%
0.1%
0.9%
1.6%
0.9%
2.8%
1.3%
2.1%
2.5%
1.7%

0.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1.1%
1.9%
0.8%
4.1%
2.3%
1.5%
3.6%
1.6%

0.0%
0.9%
0.1%
1.0%
1.9%
0.6%
3.6%
1.2%
3.1%
3.4%
1.9%

0.0%
0.9%
0.1%
0.8%
2.1%
1.8%
3.4%
1.3%
2.1%
2.8%
1.8%

0.0%
1.3%
0.7%
1.6%
1.8%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
1.4%
2.3%
1.6%

0.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.8%
1.7%
1.4%
2.4%
1.2%
2.1%
2.6%
1.2%

0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.8%
1.6%
0.6%
2.3%
2.1%
2.2%
2.8%
1.6%

0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.3%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-0.4%
1.3%
1.4%
0.5%

0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.1%
2.4%
-0.6%
1.0%
1.8%
9.4%
1.2%
7.1%

0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.3%
1.3%
-0.2%
0.8%
1.0%
4.7%
0.7%
3.7%

0.0%
1.2%
0.1%
0.8%
2.8%
0.9%
8.4%
3.4%
0.7%
6.7%
1.5%

0.0%
1.3%
0.2%
2.6%
1.6%
1.1%
2.2%
1.7%
2.0%
2.1%
1.9%

0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.6%
2.1%
1.5%
4.1%
1.0%
2.5%
3.8%
1.4%

0.0%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
1.2%
1.8%
3.4%
0.0%
-0.8%
2.8%
-1.0%

0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.4%
1.9%
-0.2%
2.5%
3.8%
3.2%
3.0%
3.4%

1820-1870
1870-1913

0.5%
1.3%

1.0%
1.3%

0.6%
1.4%

0.6%
1.1%

1.3%
1.9%

0.0%
1.9%

0.7%
0.8%

0.2%
0.4%

-0.2%
0.1%

0.0%
0.5%

0.2%
1.5%

3.9%
1.1%

0.4%
0.8%

0.6%
1.1%

0.0%
0.9%

1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%

3.0%
2.5%
1.2%
1.2%

3.0%
2.5%
1.2%
1.2%

1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%

5.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.5%

5.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.5%

5.0%
4.0%
1.5%
1.2%

5.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.5%

1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%

1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%

3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%

2012-2030(M)
2030-2050(M)
2050-2070(M)
2070-2100(M)

2012-2030(M)
2030-2050(M)
2050-2070(M)
2070-2100(M)

Tabela S2.4. Taxa de crescimento da produo mundial 0-2100

utilizadas nos grficos 2.3-2.5)

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.5%
1.8%
4.0%
3.4%
3.5%
3.1%
1.7%
1.4%

Produo
mundial por
habitante
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.9%
0.9%
2.1%
2.1%
2.6%
2.5%
1.5%
1.2%

0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.5%
1.8%
3.8%
3.3%
1.5%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.9%
0.9%
2.1%
2.5%
1.3%

Produo
mundial total
0-1000
1000-1500
1500-1700
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-1950
1950-1990
1990-2012
2012-2030
2030-2050
2050-2070
2070-2100
0-1000
1000-1500
1500-1700
1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-1950
1950-2012
2012-2050
2050-2100
Ver frmulas

Produo por
habitante

1700-1820
1820-1870
1870-1913
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012

1700-1820
1820-1913
1913-1950
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2012

(sries

Europa Ocidental

Amrica do
Norte

0.2%
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
4.1%
2.3%
1.5%

0.7%
1.3%
1.9%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
1.4%

0.2%
1.1%
0.8%
4.1%
2.3%
1.5%

0.7%
1.6%
1.6%
2.3%
2.2%
1.4%

Tabela S2.5. A inflao nos pases ricos desde a Revoluo Industrial

(sries utilizadas no grfico 2.6)

Frana

Alemanha

Estados Unidos

Reino Unido

1700-1820

0.7%

0.4%

0.3%

0.5%

1820-1870

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.5%

1870-1913

0.4%

0.6%

-0.7%

0.0%

1913-1950

13.1%

16.8%

2.5%

3.1%

1950-1970

5.6%

3.4%

2.6%

4.1%

1970-1990

7.9%

3.9%

5.6%

10.2%

1990-2012

1.6%

1.4%

2.2%

2.6%

Inflao: valores obtidos a partir de PZ 2013 Tabelas FR3, DE3, US3, UK3, e congelados no dia 8-2-2013

Cpia da Tabela S1.2: Dados histricos da populao

mundial

0
1000
1500
1700
1820
1870
1913
1950
1970
1990
2012

Populao
mundial

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

Populao
mundial
(milhes)

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

Populao
mundial
(milhes)

Europa
Ocidental

Leste
Europeu

Rssia
(+Ucrnia/
Bielorrssia/
Moldvia)

Amrica do
Norte

Amrica
Latina

Norte da
frica

frica
Subsaariana

China

ndia

Japo

Austrlia/NZ

Oriente
Mdio (incl.
Turquia)

sia Central

Outros
pases da
sia

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

15%
14%
19%
20%
21%
25%
26%
22%
18%
14%
10%

3%
5%
5%
2%
3%
7%
10%
13%
14%
14%
14%

8%
12%
11%
10%
7%
7%
7%
9%
10%
12%
15%

75%
69%
65%
67%
69%
61%
56%
56%
58%
61%
61%

226
267
438
603
1,042
1,276
1,793
2,528
3,691
5,306
7,052

33
38
85
123
217
317
475
548
658
720
740

6
13
20
13
32
84
186
332
512
724
954

17
32
47
61
74
90
125
228
366
635
1,070

169
184
287
406
719
784
1,007
1,421
2,155
3,226
4,288

226
267
438
603
1,042
1,276
1,793
2,528
3,691
5,306
7,052

25
26
57
81
133
187
261
306
353
376
414

5
7
14
19
36
54
80
88
108
130
126

3
6
15
23
47
76
134
154
197
215
201

1
1
2
1
11
44
105
166
227
281
351

6
11
18
12
22
40
81
165
285
443
603

9
11
8
9
11
16
25
44
71
120
171

8
22
38
52
63
75
100
184
295
516
899

60
59
103
138
381
358
437
547
818
1,145
1,354

75
75
110
165
209
253
304
359
541
874
1,258

3
8
15
27
31
34
52
84
104
122
126

0
0
1
1
0
2
6
10
15
20
27

19
20
18
21
25
30
39
60
103
187
300

1
1
2
4
8
12
22
25
46
67
79

11
21
38
51
64
93
148
336
527
811
1,143

Fonte: Clculo do autor a partir das sries histricas de Angus Maddison, "Historical statistics of the world economy 1-2008" (fevereiro 2010) e de sries Naes
Unidas/Banco Mundial para o perodo 1990-2012 (outubro 2012). A Rssia foi includa na Europa, e as antigas repblicas da sia Central e da Oceania, na sia.
Todos os detalhes so dados dentro do arquivo excel a seguir: MaddisonWorldGDPSeries1to2008.xls, folha "CorrectedSummaryTables". O link para esse arquivo
foi destrudo no dia 8-2-2013. Ver este arquivo para modificaes e atualizaes.

Cpia da Tabela S1.2 feita no dia 8-2-2013 (frmulas eliminadas ) (tabela mantida em Captulo1-grficos e tabelas.xls)

1.415019669
1.439380968
1.52316156
1.512597043
1.310613756
1.075694078
#DIV/0!

Cpia da Tabela S1.3: Dados para o PIB por habitante

Produo
mundial por
habitante

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

Europa +
Amricas

sia +
frica

Produo
mundial por
habitante (
2012) (PPC)

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

Produo
mundial por
habitante (
2012) (PPC)

Europa
Ocidental

Leste
Europeu

Rssia
(+Ucrnia/
Bielorrssia/
Moldvia)

Amrica do
Norte

Amrica
Latina

Norte da
frica

frica
Subsaariana

China

ndia

Japo

Austrlia/NZ

Oriente
Mdio (incl.
Turquia)

sia Central

Outros
pases da
sia

1913
1950
1970
1990
2012

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

119%
97%
127%
147%
156%
183%
177%
182%
222%
248%
238%

82%
85%
71%
83%
127%
175%
231%
276%
233%
243%
214%

101%
95%
75%
70%
64%
58%
42%
43%
37%
30%
26%

97%
103%
98%
91%
86%
63%
47%
37%
42%
48%
69%

113%
94%
116%
141%
153%
182%
192%
217%
227%
246%
224%

97%
101%
95%
88%
84%
63%
46%
37%
41%
45%
61%

629
608
754
821
893
1,173
2,051
2,822
4,916
6,417
10,092

751
587
954
1,208
1,396
2,150
3,638
5,130
10,905
15,944
24,031

517
517
536
679
1,134
2,049
4,733
7,788
11,455
15,616
21,547

635
575
563
573
572
679
865
1,207
1,813
1,930
2,635

608
625
740
745
764
739
954
1,032
2,059
3,108
6,999

629
608
754
821
893
1,173
2,051
2,822
4,916
6,417
10,092

804
596
1,076
1,386
1,666
2,725
4,822
6,374
14,187
22,194
30,689

626
608
754
921
1,038
1,423
2,576
3,208
6,558
8,248
15,976

529
529
660
807
910
1,247
1,967
3,757
7,399
9,659
15,363

526
526
526
671
1,617
3,128
6,883
12,314
19,377
29,922
40,664

516
516
538
680
892
873
1,929
3,239
5,158
6,538
10,435

719
649
604
587
594
854
1,220
1,505
2,386
3,589
5,741

547
539
554
570
568
643
777
1,136
1,676
1,545
2,045

600
621
800
800
800
707
736
597
734
1,053
7,673

585
585
715
715
693
693
875
805
951
1,168
3,200

552
587
690
787
924
1,018
1,915
2,652
13,412
25,942
29,999

462
462
462
462
567
3,754
5,958
8,790
13,717
19,168
29,486

831
989
939
941
967
1,182
1,660
2,829
6,370
7,740
13,390

548
548
684
836
943
1,294
2,040
3,896
7,645
7,689
6,375

449
449
585
590
600
602
878
807
1,334
2,807
5,665

1980

100%

234%

239%

35%

45%

5,889

13,785

14,055

2,052

2,623

5,889

18,352

8,793

8,547

24,107

7,019

3,422

1,733

852

992

18,540

16,227

8,598

8,813

1,962

2030
2050
2070
2100

100%
100%
100%
100%

208%
178%
169%
167%

185%
162%
167%
176%

38%
49%
53%
55%

84%
96%
101%
105%

15,984
26,067
34,873
50,485

33,223
46,399
59,005
84,532

29,647
42,120
58,218
88,669

6,108
12,844
18,421
27,787

13,455
25,130
35,090
53,017

15,984
26,067
34,873
50,485

38,040
48,289
61,300
87,675

27,199
44,568
56,576
80,919

26,155
42,858
54,406
77,814

50,403
63,983
81,223
116,170

17,765
29,110
43,255
67,612

13,815
30,271
44,982
70,310

4,922
10,785
16,026
25,050

18,465
40,460
54,494
77,940

7,701
16,875
25,075
39,194

37,183
47,202
59,920
85,701

36,549
46,396
58,897
84,238

22,796
37,354
55,507
86,762

10,854
17,785
26,428
41,309

9,644
15,803
23,483
36,705

Produo
mundial

Europa

Amricas

frica

sia

2030
2050
2070
2100

100%
100%
100%
100%

19%
14%
12%
11%

25%
21%
21%
21%

7%
12%
15%
19%

50%
54%
52%
48%

133,005
242,585
342,697
511,161

24,626
33,372
40,521
57,042

32,709
50,452
71,601
107,639

9,541
28,148
51,948
99,314

66,130
130,613
178,627
247,166

133,005
242,585
342,697
511,161

16,361
20,923
26,100
37,686

3,323
5,038
5,818
7,682

4,943
7,411
8,603
11,674

20,245
28,592
39,368
61,155

12,464
21,860
32,233
46,484

2,877
7,008
10,491
15,193

6,664
21,140
41,456
84,120

25,724
52,420
61,355
73,345

11,733
28,552
42,833
60,786

4,470
5,124
5,880
7,827

1,205
1,720
2,334
3,558

8,826
17,296
28,042
45,845

996
1,770
2,657
4,026

13,176
23,732
35,527
51,779

2030
2050
2070
2100

100%
100%
100%
100%

19%
14%
12%
11%

25%
21%
21%
21%

7%
12%
15%
19%

50%
54%
52%
48%

100%
100%
100%
100%

19%
14%
12%
11%

25%
21%
21%
21%

7%
12%
15%
19%

50%
54%
52%
48%

100%
100%
100%
100%

12%
9%
8%
7%

2%
2%
2%
2%

4%
3%
3%
2%

15%
12%
11%
12%

9%
9%
9%
9%

2%
3%
3%
3%

5%
9%
12%
16%

19%
22%
18%
14%

9%
12%
12%
12%

3%
2%
2%
2%

1%
1%
1%
1%

7%
7%
8%
9%

1%
1%
1%
1%

10%
10%
10%
10%

0
1000
1500
1700
1820
1870

Produo
mundial (bilhes
2012) (PPC)

Cpia da Tabela S1.3 feita no dia 8-2-2013 (frmulas eliminadas) (tabela mantida dentro de Captulo1-grficos e tabelas.xls)
Acrscimo de previses 2012-2100 no dia 12-2-2013