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COVID-19
A preliminary study on exploring preventive
the critical success factors for strategy

developing COVID-19 preventive

strategy with an economy 357

centric approach Received 3 June 2020

Revised 26 July 2020
4 August 2020
Accepted 5 August 2020

Un estudio preliminar sobre la

exploración de los factores
críticos de éxito para el desarrollo
de una estrategia preventiva ante
COVID-19 con un enfoque
Um estudo preliminar sobre a
exploração de fatores críticos de
sucesso para o desenvolvimento
de uma estratégia preventiva
contra COVID-19 com uma
abordagem centrada na economia
Ankur Kashyap
Quantum School of Business, Quantum University Roorkee, Roorkee, India, and
Juhi Raghuvanshi
University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, Canada

Abstract Management Research: Journal of

the Iberoamerican Academy of
Purpose – In the wake of COVID-19, most of the countries at present, are in a dilemma whether to Management
Vol. 18 No. 4, 2020
extend lockdown at the cost of economy or to improve the hard-hit economy by lifting the lockdown. pp. 357-377
© Emerald Publishing Limited
It is indicated by the reputed organizations and medical fraternity that corona will stay here for a 1536-5433
longer period contrary to the earlier assumptions. Hence the purpose of this study is to DOI 10.1108/MRJIAM-06-2020-1046
MRJIAM suggest a strategy which balances both preventive measures and economic losses to control the
pandemic.
18,4 Design/methodology/approach – There is a need for the identification of the critical success factors
(CSFs) for developing COVID-19 preventive strategies to control the pandemic with an economy-centric
approach.
Findings – The six CSFs identified are “Effective communication”, “Social distancing”, “Adopting new
technology”, “Modify the rules and regulation at workplace”, “Sealing the borders of the territory” and
358 “Strong leadership and government control”.
Research limitations/implications – The study has a vital contribution to literature as no previous
study has identified CSFs for developing COVID-19 preventive strategies while focusing on the economy.
Practical implications – Further, these identified CSFs are helpful in medium and longer-term planning
which is required to rebalance and re-energize the economy following this epidemic crisis.
Originality/value – The study has given a model that depicts the cause and influence relationship
between the key factors in the system under question. The importance of study increases many fold, as
resources are limited and the outcome of the study could be used to channelize the resources effectively.
Keywords Critical success factors, Fuzzy DEMATEL, COVID-19, Lockdown, Preventive strategy,
Corona pandemic
Paper type Research paper

Resumen
Prop
osito – A raíz del surgimiento de COVID-19, en la actulidad la mayoría de los países se encuentran en
un dilema entre extender el confinamiento a costa de la economía o mejorar la afectada economía levantando
las cuarentenas. Diversas organizaciones incluyendo la comunidad médica indican que el coronavirus
permanecer
a por un período m
as largo, contrario a las suposiciones anteriores. En este contexto, es muy
necesaria una estrategia que equilibre tanto las medidas preventivas como las pérdidas econ
omicas.
Diseño/metodología/enfoque – Existe la necesidad de identificar los factores críticos de éxito (CSF)
para desarrollar estrategias preventivas de COVID-19 para controlar la pandemia con un enfoque centrado en
la economía.
Resultados – Los seis CSF identificados son “Comunicaci
on efectiva”, “Distanciamiento social”, “Adopci
on
de nuevas tecnologías”, “Modificar las reglas y regulaciones en el lugar de trabajo”, “Sellar las fronteras del
territorio” y “Liderazgo fuerte y control gubernamental”.
Implicaciones de la investigaci
on – Este estudio tiene una contribuci
on relevante para la literatura, ya
que ningún estudio anterior ha identificado CSF para desarrollar estrategias preventivas de COVID-19
mientras se enfoca en la economía.
Implicaciones prácticas – Adem
as, los CSF identificados son útiles en la planificaci
on a mediano y largo
plazo que se requiere para reequilibrar y reactivar la economía después de esta crisis epidémica.
Originalidad/valor – El estudio ha proporcionado un modelo que describe la relaci
on de causa-efecto
entre los factores clave del sistema analizado. La importancia del estudio se hace m
as evidente ya que ante
recursos limitados, los resultados podría utilizarse para canalizar los recursos de manera eficaz.
Palabras clave – Confinamiento, COVID-19, Pandemia, Estrategia Preventiva, Factores Críticos de Éxito,
DEMATEL

Resumo
Objetivo – Como resultado do surgimento do COVID-19, a maioria dos países est
a atualmente em um
dilema entre estender o confinamento às custas da economia ou melhorar a economia afetada suspendendo as
quarentenas. V
arias organizações, incluindo a comunidade médica, indicam que o coronavírus permanecer
a
por um período mais longo, ao contr
ario das suposições anteriores. Nesse contexto, uma estratégia que
equilibre medidas preventivas e perdas econômicas é muito necess
aria.
Desenho/Metodologia/Abordagem – É necess
ario identificar os Fatores Críticos de Sucesso (CSF)
para desenvolver estratégias preventivas ao COVID-19 para controlar a pandemia com uma abordagem
centrada na economia.
Resultados – Os seis CSF identificados são “Comunicação eficaz”, “Distanciamento social”, “Adoção de COVID-19
novas tecnologias”, “Modificar regras e regulamentos no local de trabalho”, “Selar as fronteiras do territ
orio” e
“Liderança forte e controle governamental”. preventive
Implicações da pesquisa – Este estudo tem uma contribuição relevante para a literatura, uma vez que strategy
nenhum estudo anterior identificou a CSF para desenvolver estratégias preventivas ao COVID-19 com foco na
economia.
Implicações pr
aticas – Além disso, os CSF identificados são úteis no planejamento de médio e longo
prazo necess
ario para reequilibrar e reativar a economia ap
os esta crise epidêmica. 359
Originalidade/valor – O estudo forneceu um modelo que descreve a relação causa-efeito entre os fatores-
chave do sistema analisado. A importância do estudo fica mais evidente uma vez que, diante de uma situação
de recursos limitados, os resultados poderiam ser usados para canalizar recursos de forma eficaz.
Palavras-chave – Confinamento, COVID-19, Pandemia, Estratégia Preventiva, Fatores Críticos de Sucesso,
DEMATEL

1. Introduction
Apart from many steps taken to control the COVID-19, under non-pharmaceutical
interventions, lockdown had been a primary strategy adopted by most of the countries. More
than one-third of the world population had been under some type of restriction. A total of 48
countries implemented partial or full lockdown and among these countries, Brazil, France,
Italy, New Zealand, Poland and the UK have implemented the world’s longest and most
restrictive lockdown (Langton, 2020). Spain imposed a state of emergency on 14 March 2020
which involved a strict lockdown. Some countries in Ibero-American region like Argentina,
Spain, Portugal move to the last phase of lockdown to a progressive return to activities but
with restrictions because of the fresh outbreak of the epidemic.
Lockdown isn’t a long-term strategy, however. This is a short-term strategy to reduce
the number of infected and slow down the rate of spread of virus among people, also referred
to as flattening of the curve. This strategy is effective only to buy some time for preparing
health services to handle a larger number of COVID-19 patients.
The effect of this non-medical restrictive measure to control virus has harmed the
economic and business activities. Although assessing the impact of COVID-19 on economy
is difficult as well as challenging for the crisis has unfolded very swiftly causing higher
uncertainty than any other pandemic in near past (Baker et al., 2020), the global economy is
projected to contract sharply in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–2009 financial crisis
(World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, 2020). As per the survey report
on World Economic Outlook by International Monetary Fund (IMF), world’s economy will
be going to contract to
3% in 2020. But the report is optimistic about the slow recovery of
the economy and projected that pandemic effect could gradually slowdown in the latter part
of the year and will grow by a rate of 5.8% in year 2021.
As per UNCTAD estimates, exports across global value chains could decrease by US$50bn
during the year and in China, a 2% reduction in exports of semi-finished intermediate goods is
reported after lifting the lockdown. This is due to the spillover effect of the pandemic on the
supply chain on the countries which were exporting heavily (Fernandes, 2020). A study
(Bhattacharya, Bhandari and Bairagya, 2020) shows that supply infectivity will impact
manufacturing sector, agriculture and pharmaceutical industry adversely. This would indeed
decrease the supply of goods but will have a more negative effect on the demand side, which
eventually leads to a demand-deficient recession (Fernandes, 2020; Guerrieri et al., 2020).
The reduction in demand has caused dramatic falls in the prices of a range of metals and
minerals across March and April 2020. During this time the largest mining companies like
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have lost their share value by 40 to 45% (Laing, 2020).
This decrease in prices shows the short term effect of corona virus on the mining industry
MRJIAM (Dev and Sengupta, 2020. Barichello (2020) found that although agriculture trade would be
18,4 less prone to crisis as it is insulated by its relatively low-income elasticities of demand, but
the pulses and other livestock could face relatively more declination in demand and revenue.
Among Europe, France’s automobile sales fell by 88% in recent months, while sales in
Italy plunged 98% and car sales in the UK fell 97% (“Weekly Update: COVID-19 Impact On
Global Automotive Industry,” 2020). The effect on global smart-phone manufacturing is
360 visible as production is decreased by 37.4 million in February 2020 as compared to the same
month in year 2019. (“Corona virus (COVID-19): impact on the global tech goods and
services industry jStatista,” 2020).
The service sector is worst hit by the pandemic (Dev and Sengupta, 2020). It has been
reported that sectors such as tourism, aviation, hospitality, entertainment and trades have
faced a lot of difficulties. A study by Fernandes (2020) estimated that in some countries such as
Greece, Portugal and Spain that are predominantly dependent on tourism, their GDP may fall
more than 15% in 2020. The same is the phenomena in many Latin American countries. The
situation regarding international tourism in China is much grave. As it was the epicenter of
COVID-19 pandemic, people fear visiting this country. This will have a huge long-term effect
on its tourism industry (Hoque et al., 2020). The tourism sector occurred a loss of $200bn
globally due to the travel restrictions imposed by different countries during lockdown (Ozili
and Arun, 2020). Due to the lockdown the hospitality sector has incurred an estimated loss of
jobs 24.3 million globally and 3.9 million in the USA alone (Ozili and Arun, 2020).
The only industries that could save their business to a certain extent during epidemic is
the IT sector which is in low-risk areas (Stephany et al., 2020) and assumed to be affected in
a later phase of the post COVID-19 pandemic. The reason for low impact of corona on
information processing firms is that their employees are executing all major processes from
home. Companies such as Google and Facebook had planned to do their jobs remotely until
2021(Facebook, Google, Microsoft say most workers will work from home until 2021 - The
Washington Post, 2020).
Considering all the measures to minimize the negative effect on the business as a part of
an open system, this study focuses on identifying the critical success factors (CSFs) for the
preventive strategy. CSFs are those variables or circumstances necessary to enable a
positive outcome for a strategy. The CSFs are the expected causal variables of a particular
desired result. The authors studied the cause and influence relationship between the key
factors for the preventive strategy. These CSFs will find their application in near future as
some restrictions will be removed in lockdowns which could initiate a second wave of
spread of COVID-19 just like the pandemic “Spanish fever” of 1918, that renewed upon
relaxation of non-pharmaceutical measures (Hatchett et al., 2007).

2. Theoretical framework
In 1999, Freeman said that a business is affected by its various stakeholders. Typical
shareholders are regulators, employees, customers, suppliers, creditors, competitors,
government, etc. For carrying out any business three entities – government, firm owner and
employees are the basic pillars. In this trinity, most of the authority is rested with the owner/
manager of the business (Hult et al., 2011) and the government’s role involves more
monitoring than direct control (Donaldson et al., 1995). Keeping in mind the uncommon
pandemic conditions, economic progress and magnified role of the government as the
central stakeholder, the conflicting nature of the firm with its employees and government
requires deep study (Hult et al., 2011). The three together form a vicious circle. To maximize
profits. Firms reduce their expenses in operations which according to them perceived as not
enough value-generating. This leads to cuts in salaries of employees, unfavorable working
conditions and tax invasions which again causes dent in the country’s exchequer forcing COVID-19
government to impose more taxes. The descriptive approach is used in this research to preventive
describe and explain the relationship between the factors and enablers to overcome the
economic crisis in COVID-infected world.
strategy
Due to the limited resources, it is not possible to improve all the factors and components
of a system. To overcome this problem more effective way is to find the relationship
between the key factors and allocated resources to improve those critical and urgent factors
(Leidecker and Bruno, 1984). These factors are called the CSRs whose objective is to design a 361
preventive strategy while focusing on economy.
Based on these theoretical perspectives and the relevant literature related to measures to
overcome the pandemic, the study has come up with the following research objectives along
with the corresponding research questions:
Objective 1: Identifying the CSFs for preparing a preventive strategy to overcome the
slowdown caused by the lockdown after the COVID-19 outbreak.

RQ1. What are the steps taken by the government/firm/employees to resume the
economic activities while controlling the corona pandemic effectively and
efficiently?
Objective 2: Propose a priority model as a part of a preventive strategy to cope up with
COVID-19 without disturbing the economic progress.

RQ2. How the different measures taken by various stakeholders are related to each other?

3. Research methodology
The base of this study is the identification of key factors that are either been applied or
proposed by different countries around the world to manage COVID-19. The first step was
to identify these key factors based on the literature review. The second step was to form and
consult a group of professionals comprising entrepreneurs, industrialists, economists and
government officials, corporate and academic experts, to get suggestions from them
regarding key factors. We conducted telephonic interviews with industry experts to further
investigate the objectives of the study. The government official on the strategic positions
were also consulted and their inputs were sought out for identifying the probable key
factors. Other than these survey instruments, the study also used an open-ended
questionnaire to take inputs from corporate world.
In the third phase of study, CSFs were identified. This study applied fuzzy Decision-
Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) for identifying CSFs. DEMATEL
was originally developed by Battelle Memorial Association in Geneva. The idea behind the
development of this method was to propose an appropriate scientific research method to
enhance the understanding of specific challenges and to contribute to the identification of
intermittent sets of problems and solutions that can be applied in a complex system
(Raghuvanshi and Agrawal, 2020). Although it is not possible to quantify the degree of
interaction in relationship, but it helps in clearing the interactions between subsystems (Wu,
2012). One advantage of this method is that it could be used to solve the problem graphically
as it is based on graph theory. DEMATEL could classify the different factors and capture
the relationship visually in terms of cause and effect while converting the relationship
between key factors into an intelligible structural model of the system.
Many times, DEMATEL method faces evaluation challenges under a complex system.
The respondents are very likely to be precise due to the subjectivity involved in the process.
MRJIAM They are prone to give a linguistic assessment based on experience, rather than to judge by
18,4 precise values (Wu and Lee, 2007; Lin et al., 2018). To overcome this evaluation problem this
research used fuzzy approach. Fuzzy sets are freed from decision-making uncertainties and
from the verbal comments of experts and more accurate in obtaining precise results
(Bellman and Zadeh, 1970; Zimmermann, 2011).

362 3.1 Identification of the key factors through literature review

In the first phase of the study, for searching the key factors, a systematic literature review was
conducted. Considering the newness of the study, we were not confined only to scholarly or peer-
reviewed articles. The literature review comprises of published literature, including books,
conference proceedings and literature obtained from electronic sources, mainly newspapers and
blogs. Several databases, in addition to the proceeding journals, were also searched, including
Emerald, Proquest, Science Direct and Google Scholar. The keywords used were critical factors,
COVID-19, SARS, H1N1, Ebola, pandemic, lockdown, CSFs, strategic administration, strategies,
management approaches. This section gives a brief description of the selected key factors (KFs)
that are mainly associated with the – Employee: The employees are the ones who create and
deliver products or services; Firm: It owns the company. It is the board, acting on behalf of the
firm, the CEO, and the executive team and National Government and regulatory authorities: It
forms regulations to be compliant by others to avoid disputes and prosecutions. Based on the
level of execution by these entities, Table 1 gives the salient references of key factors.
A brief description of the key factors is as follows:
 Work from home (KF-WFH): All previous studies on COVID-19 considered work
from home as a key success factor for controlling the virus. To reduce human
contact it is an effective way(Jones et al., 2020). Many industries have adopted it
successfully, especially the IT industry, while others are preparing their workforce
to work from home. Companies like Infosys are working seamlessly on the concept
of switching between work from home and work from the office. But, this measure
is not fully feasible for all types of sectors. For pure service industries such as
restaurants, airlines and the tourism sector as well as manufacturing units, only a
few operations could be performed by the employees from home work station. The
number of employees working from home is highest in and among medical
transcription, computer scientists, economists and data processing services
(Hensvik et al., 2020). Work from home depends on several factors.
 Ability to use computers: In a study based on computer usability, Saltiel (2020)
mentioned that people who could work from home ranges from 5.5% in Ghana to
23% in Yunnan (China).
 Urbanization: Another favoring agent for work from home is urbanization. A study
by Hensvik et al. (2020) found that in the USA from 2011 to 2018, around 15% of
working hours were performed from home. It was also found that in urban areas,
this share was only about 20% in poor countries, compared to close to 40% in rich
ones (Gottlieb et al., 2020).
 Geographical regions: Alipour et al. (2020) found that roughly 56% of all jobs in the
current German economy can plausibly be performed at home. A working study by
Mathur (2020) put forward an Economic Contact Intensity (ECI) specific to the
Indian economy. According to his proposed index, sectors like diversified and non-
financial services and telecommunication services are the sectors where the ratio of
economic output to economic contact is high.
Level of execution* Key factors
Employee, Firm Work from home (KF-WFH)
Social distancing (KF-SD)
Adopting new technology (KF-TEC)
Firm Rescheduling the production (KF-RSP)
Re-evaluate the supply chain (KF-SC)
Identifying the key employees (KF-KE)
Digitally enabled delivery systems (KF-
DD)
Prioritizing the human resource (KF-
HR)
Altering the product line (KF-APL)
Firm, National Effective communication (KF-COM)
Government/ Modify the rules and regulation at
regulatory authorities workplace (KF-WRR)
Fumigation chamber (KF-FUM)
Developing online purchasing
behaviors (KF-ONP)
Generating Demand for domestic
consumption (KF-DC)
National Sealing the borders of the territory (KF-
Government/ BOR)
regulatory authorities Strong leadership and government
control (KF-GOV)
Unemployment benefits by
Government (KF-UEB)
Extending the financial year (KF-FIY)
Anti-dumping duties (KF-ADD)
Loan and Printing of currency (KF-
LPC)
References
COVID-19
preventive
Roy et al. (2020), Mamoon (2020) strategy
Jones et al. (2020), Hensvik et al. (2020),
Gottlieb et al. (2020), Alipour et al.
(2020), Mathur (2020)
National Academies of Sciences and
Medicine (2019), Kankanhalli et al. 363
(2019), Mora et al. (2019), Tuyls and
Pera (2019), Kummitha (2020),
Chatterjee et al. (2018), Jakhar (2020)
Rose and Wei (2020), Prager et al. (2017)
Ivanov (2020), Ivanov and Dolgui
(2020), Guerrieri et al. (2020)
Prager et al. (2017)
Lin (2020)
Fornaro and Wolf (2020)
Fornaro and Wolf (2020)
Gong et al. (2020)
Kucharski et al. (2020), Gong et al.
(2020)
Rogers and Choi (2008)
Lin (2020)
Keogh-Brown et al. (2010), Fornaro and
Wolf (2020)
Bogoch et al. (2020), Mamoon (2020),
Ferguson et al. (2006)
Shaw et al. (2020), Ozili and Arun (2020)
(BBC www.bbc.com/news/business-
51982005);
Rayment (2020), Guerrieri et al. (2020),
Table 1.
Ozili and Arun (2020)
McKibbin and Fernando (2020) Key factors and their
McKibbin and Fernando (2020) classification for
Ozili and Arun (2020), McKibbin and preventive strategy
Fernando (2020) focusing economy

 Social distancing (KF-SD): Another crucial tool revealed through literature is social
distancing and isolation. In many countries, authorities have advised the production
facilities and offices to work with 30–50% of the employee strength. This is
achieved by rotating the employees in shifts using roasters. Within the factories and
offices social distancing is to be followed. People are getting used to distancing
and there is a positive attitude of public towards social-distancing, avoiding party
and travel and maintaining hygiene (Roy et al., 2020).
 Adopting new technology (KF-TEC): Many industries are going towards more
automation to minimize human intervention in their production facility. An
increasing trend of implementing artificial intelligence (AI), Robotics and Internet of
Things (IoT) in the corporate world has given advantages to restart production
facilities effectively after long lockdown. The cities are now more resilient because
MRJIAM of the use of more sophisticated human-less technology (National Academies of
18,4 Sciences and Medicine, 2019). To reduce the risk of spreading corona virus civil
authorities in worse COVID-19-hit countries are using sensors, wearables, vehicles,
cell phones, mobile applications for better collection and management of data
(Kankanhalli et al., 2019; Mora et al., 2019; Tuyls and Pera, 2019). A QR based
system is used in smart cities to monitor the movement of people within the cities
364 (Kummitha, 2020). In developing countries such as India, proposed smart cities also
intended to use IoT for enhancing the system quality (Chatterjee et al., 2018).
Moreover, to curb corona, contactless temperature detection software has been
deployed at underground stations, schools and community centers in Beijing,
Shanghai and Shenzhen (Jakhar, 2020).
 Rescheduling the production (KF-RSP): Various manufacturing units are likely to
reschedule their working hours and are planning to shift to off-peak hours (for
example at night). This measure will prevent the risk of labor force getting exposed
to virus by coming in close contact with infectious persons during transportation, as
most of the routine activities are performed in the daytime. Various Governments in
COVID-19-infected countries have issued directions for companies to begin work
with less number of employees. To compensate for the output, units could
reschedule operation time to overcome stock and supply chain losses due to the
closure of factories during lockdown period (Rose and Wei, 2020).
 Re-evaluating the supply chain (KF-SC): The manufacturing units are now re-
evaluating their supply chain. COVID-19 has disrupted the demand and supply across
the globe. Not only industries but the people are also facing a lot of problems due to
uncertainty in demand and supply of items (Guerrieri et al., 2020; Ranney et al., 2020). A
flexible supply chain is the need of the hour. This means beginning with the most
critical products and looking well beyond first- and second-tier suppliers, right down to
the raw materials. It is been observed that the epidemic outbreaks created a lot of
uncertainty and companies need a guided framework in developing their pandemic
plans for their supply chain (Ivanov, 2020). Modifying different aspect of a supply chain
that are functional both in upstream and downstream like inventories, subcontracting
capacities, backup supply and transportation infrastructures, omni-channel distribution
systems, flexible production technologies, data-driven, real-time monitoring and
visibility systems helped the companies to survive and recover through the pandemic
times (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2020).
 Identifying the key employees (KF-KE): After the lockdown in many Ibero-American
region, some of the industrial production units are preparing to start their work. The
outbreak has presented new roadblocks for the workforce and especially for the
daily wage and contractual workers. People are leaving the industrial towns and
moving to their native places finding no other option for their survival. For example
in Italy seasonal workers from countries such as Romania and Albania are not
available for agricultural jobs (Win, 2020). It has made the position even worse for
industries to restart their functioning. But some visionary firms have retained their
trained and highly skilled human resource, who could step into critical roles if
needed. In future industries have to identify their key personnel and have to retain
them for more resilience towards pandemic situations.
 Digitally enabled delivery systems (KF-DD): A hybrid system of online and offline
local shop owners will help in using the local inventories as well enhancing the
supply side with less risk of spreading virus. The model has been tried by Alibaba
 in China where the online purchases get delivery within 20 min (Lin, 2020). A COVID-19
similar system is been initiated by Amazon in India as a pilot project. preventive
 Prioritizing the human resource (KF-HR): It was observed that 37% of strategy
transmissions of COVID-19 happened at schools and workplaces (Eichenbaum et al.,
2020). People in older age are more prone to COVID-19 as compared to young and
isolating them is a good strategy for control of virus (Ferguson et al., 2020).
Governments in different countries have also released an advisory to the offices, 365
about not to call old employees for working. The higher immune system of younger
people makes them less vulnerable to corona virus.
 Altering the product line (KF-APL): This Global pandemic has changed the demand
statistics of many products. Demand of essential commodities like groceries, fruits, have
increased whereas white goods, automobiles, leisure products are less demanded in
lockdown period. This trend is likely to remain for some time until the economy is
recovered. Many of the manufacturers are trying to innovate and altering their product
portfolio. They are now producing products that are in high demand and could be
manufactured in their existing production facility with few modifications. Companies in
developing countries of Ibero-American region which are sports manufacturer have
come up with low-cost PPE suit. Considering the high demand for PPE suits, the
management has altered the manufacturing line to manufacture PPE suits at large
scale. Likewise, chemical companies are manufacturing hand sanitizers in large
quantities. One such example is of London-based boutique liquor brand “58 Gin” that
start producing hand sanitizer ‘Hand Gin-itizer. French luxury goods maker LVMH
normally making high-end perfumes and cosmetics for Christian Dior, Guerlain and
Givenchy is now using its facilities for making “Gallic sanitizer”. Vacuum-maker Dyson
has taken an order of 10,000 ventilators from the UK government (Miller, 2020).
 Effective communication (KF-COM): Fast, reliable and true information is required
for controlling the spread of CORONA novel virus (Gong et al., 2020). The nature of
communication should be such that it reduces confusion. The leadership has to
perform right communication. A lack on part of transparency and delayed
communication by China to the world about the seriousness of the novel virus, lead
to deadly Corona spread easily to different countries in a very less time.
 Modifying the rules and regulations at workplace (KF-WRR):Special restrictions
strategies and efforts should be applied to protect people from Corona (Kucharski
et al., 2020). Daily monitoring of worker’s health is made essential. If some of the
symptoms of COVID-19 are visible, mandatory institutional isolation or voluntary
home self-isolation is to be followed. The organisation must introduce a new set of
rules and regulations related to health check-ups and monitoring. A quarantine
policy is needed to be designed as per the guidelines of WHO or local government
(Gong et al., 2020). Many of our respondents suggested that a sample collection
center for Corona testing could be arranged at business premises for timely
detection of virus. Various safety measures are now regarded as standard procedure
at a typical manufacturing unit. These are wearing a mask, frequent sanitization of
factory premises, checking of body temperature at entry gates, etc.
 Fumigation chamber (KF-FUM): A hydrogen peroxide-based fumigation sterilization
cabinet is an effective way of disinfectant (Rogers and Choi, 2008). Other chemicals are
also been used for disinfectant chambers in many cities and hospitals. This method
could also be used in factories where a large number of labors are indulged in
manufacturing. Along with chambers at entry points, installation of hand sanitizers and
MRJIAM hand washing facility is also been made available at numerous places inside the
18,4 manufacturing facility. People are anxious about the infection. More than 80% of the
people found preoccupied with the thoughts of COVID-19 and 72% reported the need to
use gloves, and sanitizers in a study by Roy et al. (2020).
 Developing online purchasing behaviors (KF-ONP): Consumers are not coming to the
marketplace for fear of Corona virus infection. The consumers are a major
366 stakeholder in the business and if sales decrease, it will hamper the profit of the
firms. The customers should be encouraged to purchase goods online. But this is
the habit that requires time to cultivate, especially in developing countries. On the
contrary as per the study by (Lin, 2020), in a developed country like the USA,
consumers are more than ready to shop on Amazon and other e-commerce
platforms. They had contributed 16% of total sales in 2019 through online
shopping, although this number was achieved in China four years earlier and its e-
commerce penetration had reached 36.6% of retail sales in year 2019.
 Generating demand for domestic consumption (KF-DC): The COVID-19 has a great
negative effect on consumer demand for goods. As seen in the influenza pandemic,
UK suffered a change in demand and consumption patterns due to fear of infection
(Keogh-Brown et al., 2010). At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely
to have output constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to
manufacturing, mining and services are more likely to be constrained by supply
shocks. Entertainment, restaurants and tourism face large supply and demand
shocks (del Rio-Chanona et al., 2020). The supply shock could be handled using a
dynamic supply chain and demand could be increased by giving intensive economic
aid to the general public for enhancing their purchasing power.
 Sealing the borders of the territory (KF-BOR): Local administration in various
countries has classified the cities into different zone based on the intensity of Corona
virus spread. Ecuador lifted travel restriction according to the preparedness of
municipalities to control the virus. This is based on the “traffic light” model.
Another Ibero-American country Mexico has also followed a ‘traffic light’ system
similar to Ecuador’s, based on an evaluation of the risk of further contagion. China
sealed the borders of different territories to limit the re-entry of COVID-19 to its
region by putting a check on travelers coming from abroad (Bogoch et al., 2020).
 Strong leadership and government control (KF-GOV): A strong governmental
control and leadership is required to impose restrictions for control of the epidemic
(Shaw et al., 2020). Besides, a system would be such that it helps in bringing more
transparency, clearly mentioning roles and responsibilities, to design and
implement COVID-19 prevention strategy. China was able to contain the corona
virus in badly affected areas, for example, Wuhan due to the strong leadership and
unified efforts of different departments.
 Unemployment benefits by Government (KF-UEB): Small, medium and micro
industries are not able to provide wages to their workers due to no or low revenue
generation during lockdown. Even after the lockdown relaxation, industries would
take some time to complete their orders and obtaining payments. The government
has to take care for the human resource and provide some financial aids to them.
Experts are in favour of providing unemployment benefits or universal minimum
wages to the blue-collar workers. In the USA, about 80% of the salary is being given
by the government, covering wages of up to £2,500 a month to lessen the burden on
industry (BBChttps://www.bbc.com/news/business-51982005). Similarly, the UK
 Government has promised help in the form of the corona virus job retention scheme COVID-19
(Rayment, 2020). In Spain, 22% of the working population has received unemploy- preventive
ment benefits (Gurría Angel, 2020).
strategy
 Extending the financial year (KF-FIY): Some of the respondents of the study have
suggested the extension of the financial year 2019–2020. It could be a good idea to
extend this financial year to 24 months. This will help to improve the financial
statistics and balance sheet of the companies as they get an extra time to recover 367
from the losses. Indian industries had demanded government to extend this
financial year to 15 months.
 Anti-dumping duties (KF-ADD): In developing countries cheap imported products are
always a challenge for domestic producers. To decrease the supply of low-cost products
anti-dumping duties or higher taxes on import of finished goods could be levied by the
government. This could reduce imports and increase the demand for domestic products.
 Loan and printing of currency (KF-LPC): To enhance the liquidity in the market, some
experts in our panel were in the favour of printing of currency by the central bank. But
the move could act as a double edge sword as it will lead to higher inflation after some
time. To enhance the liquidity the central bank has already revised its reverse repo rate
and interest rates. Extra loan (like 20–25% of loan capacity) could also be provided to
the industries by the banks without any mortgages.

3.2 Applying DEMATEL method

A brief description of the mathematical steps involved in applying DEMATEL method are
described in Appendix.
The final output (Cause and Effect relation matrix) is given in Table 2 and Figure 1
shows the digraph for key factors.

R D DþR D
R

Work from home (KF-WFH) 1.078 0.857 1.935
0.222

Social distancing (KF-SD) 1.097 1.219 2.316 0.122
Adopting new technology (KF-TEC) 0.983 1.506 2.489 0.523
Rescheduling the production (KF-RSP) 1.033 0.888 1.921
0.145
Re-evaluate the supply chain (KF-SC) 1.103 0.843 1.945
0.26
Identifying the key employees (KF-KE) 0.806 0.621 1.427
0.184
Digitally enabled delivery systems (KF-DD) 0.842 0.824 1.665
0.018
Prioritizing the human resource (KF-HR) 0.734 0.49 1.223
0.244
Altering the product line (KF-APL) 0.775 0.709 1.484
0.065
Effective communication (KF-COM) 0.589 1.365 1.953 0.776
Modify the rules and regulation at workplace (KF-WRR) 0.885 0.972 1.858 0.087
Fumigation chamber (KF-FUM) 0.531 0.209 0.74
0.322
Developing online purchasing behaviors (KF-ONP) 0.923 0.634 1.557
0.289
Generating demand for domestic consumption (KF-DC) 1.282 0.486 1.769
0.796
Sealing the borders of the territory (KF-BOR) 0.692 0.876 1.568 0.184
Strong leadership and government control (KF-GOV) 0.451 1.345 1.796 0.894
Unemployment benefits from government (KF-UEB) 0.437 0.34 0.777
0.097
Extending the financial year (KF-FIY) 0.418 0.538 0.955 0.12 Table 2.
Anti-dumping duties (KF-ADD) 0.442 0.39 0.832
0.052 Cause and effect
Loan and Printing of currency (KF-LPC) 0.563 0.55 1.113
0.013 relation matrix
MRJIAM
18,4

368

Figure 1.
Causal diagraph for
key factors

4. Interpretation of the results and identification of the critical success factors

Figure 2 shows the model of significant relations. This model can be represented as a
diagram in which the values of (D þ R) are placed on the horizontal axis and the
values of (D-R) on the vertical axis. The position and interaction of each factor with a
point in the coordinates (Dþ R, D-R) are determined by the coordinate system. The x-
axis shows the level of prominence of factors. The y-axis shows the level of cause-
effect relation.
According to Figure 2 and Tables 2, each factor can be assessed based on the score it has
acquired. The horizontal vector (D þ R) represents the degree of importance each factor has
in the entire system. In terms of degree of importance, KF-TEC (adopting new technologies)
is ranked at first place followed by (in decreasing order) KF-SD (Social distancing), KF-COM
(Effective communication) and others. The ranking of all key factors is shown in Table 2.
Higher the (D þ R) value, the higher is its prominence.

Figure 2.
CSFs in cause-effect
relationship
For any system, only a few CSFs could be considered which have the highest effect on its COVID-19
system and subsystems. The key factors are divided into two groups based on the value of preventive
(D-R). The key factors having positive values are the casual factors and key factors having
negative value constitute the effect group. Key factors having negative D-R values are
strategy
affected more by others. These key factors are considered to have a relatively lower priority.
The cause group factors are the influencing factors and effect group factors are derived from
these influencing factors. As these key factors have a net effect in the system, their
exhibition can enormously impact the general objective. So it is by and large acknowledged 369
that key factors in cause group need to be paid more consideration and attention. They lie in
I st quadrant with high prominence value and less dependent value. This study has six such
factors having positive (D-R) value and considered as the CSFs for developing preventive
strategy while achieving momentum in the business activities for enhancing economics in
the COVID-19-affected countries. These CSFs are effective communication (KF-COM), social
distancing (KF-SD), adopting new technology (KF-TEC), modifying the rules and regulation
at workplace (KF-WRR), sealing the borders of the territory (KF-BOR) and strong leadership
and government control (KF-GOV).
KF-GOV (strong leadership and government control) has the highest value of (D-R) in
this group and therefore it is the key factor that has the highest impact on the overall
system. Moreover, its degree of influential impact is fair (0.451) which indicates it has a good
effect on the other factors also. This result is strongly meaningful as it matches with the
previous study conducted by Fang et al. (2020) which said that strong leadership and
government control is successful in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in China. It was the
promptness of the Governments of Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong that they were able
to maintain a flat epidemic curve for COVID-19 by applying very liberal testing, prompt
case isolation outside of the community and technologically enhanced contact tracing
(Sjödin et al., 2020). South Korea had apparently started to stockpile corona virus testing kits
long before an outbreak had occurred on its own shores, allowing testing of 10,000 people a
day when the infection rate started to climb (Robson, 2020). At present, the government is
the central decision-making authority that have to be cautious on its every decision.
Sometimes, there are situations where government might go wrong in accessing such
uncertain events, or the people, habitual of living life in free way, do not want to be directed.
It, then, becomes necessary for the government to access control to stop making situation
even worse.
The second CSF is KF-COM, i.e effective communication having (D-R) value of 0.776 and
its degree of importance (D þ R) is also higher than KF-GOV. The importance of reliable
information was realized by Indian Government and after few days of lockdown, a daily
press conference had been organized to give information about the updates of COVID-19.
This step minimizes the rumors and uncertainty. Otherwise, it was quite impossible to keep
the largest number of citizens under the strict lockdown for such a long period. Similarly, the
clarity on various issues creates positive vibes between firm and its employees. Effective
communication makes it an important standalone factor that can influence the management
system for balancing business activities and fighting the coronavirus. In an article, Reeves
et al. (2020) advocated the importance of effectively communicating the policies in a prompt,
clear and balanced manner to their employees.
On the third position on the (D-R) scale is-adopting new technology (KF-TEC), which has
also the highest (D þ R) value of 2.489. This CSF is important and has a high impact on the
other key factors considered in this study. In this COVID era when the set standards and
working ways are fairing poorly, new technologies have emerged as a boon. In an effort to
enable contactless and rapid temperature detection, China is using AI-powered thermal
MRJIAM cameras to identify those in a crowd who have a fever and deploying facial-recognition
18,4 systems to identify those not wearing masks (Xiao and Ziyang, 2020). COVID-19 spreads
from human to human and if the production facilities and business processes are automated,
the risk of spreading the novel coronavirus will also be low due to the low involvement of
human intervention. Going one step further in the adoption of new technology, Industry 4.0
is in a better position to cope with the deadly Coronavirus while running the business
370 operation simultaneously.
The fourth key factor is sealing the borders of the territory (KF-BOR) and restricts the
movement of people from one geographical area to another. Its (D-R) value is 0.184.
According to COVID-19, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, (2020),
there were 309 actions implemented by countries (in and around)regarding prohibition on
the entry of foreign travelers, public places, mass gatherings and border close to curb the
virus dissipation. Even after six months of the corona outbreak, aviation sector is waiting to
resume its international flights.
Social distancing (KF-SD) with (D-R) value of 0.122 is yet another vital factor. Ngonghala
et al. (2020) asserts that the clamor to relax or terminate the social-distancing measures as
part of the move to re-open the country would undoubtedly trigger a devastating rebound of
COVID-19 in both New York state and the entire USA. Non-pharmaceutical interventions
based on sustained physical distancing have a strong potential to reduce the magnitude of
the epidemic peak. Social isolation and economic pressures can result in significant
deterioration of mental and physical health. Still, in the absence of a vaccine and
therapeutics, social distancing is the only mechanism to slow the spread and death rates of
COVID-19 (Hagen, 2020). These resemble the circumstances back in influenza pandemic of
1918–1919. Markel et al. (2007) in their study found no example of a city that had a second
peak of influenza, while the first set of non-pharmaceutical interventions, i.e. social
distancing through quarantine, cancellation of public gatherings, etc., were still in effect. But
the death rate reported an increase after deactivation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Modify the rules and regulation at workplace (KF-WRR) has (D-R) value of 0.87.
Compulsory use of face masks is the preventive idea that is being followed ubiquitously. A
study by Ngonghala et al. (2020) shows that even the use of low-efficacy masks will greatly
reduce the burden of the pandemic. Furthermore, it shows that combining the masks-based
strategy with the strict social distancing strategy is more effective than the singular
implementation of either strategy. In industries, the rules of six feet distance between
workers, sanitization and increase in shifts with not more than prescribed limit of workers
and proper monitoring are to be followed without considering the money these processes
will consume.
Now for the variables lying in II quadrant, they have weak driving powers but can be
influenced by the other factors. They normally do not play in direct form, but indirectly they
could be helpful. The factors in III quadrant usually remain detach from the system as they
have weak driving or influencing power and weak is their driven power. Such examples are
identifying the key employee (KF-KE), fumigating chamber (KF-FUM) and unemployment
benefits by the government (KF-UEB). Generally the factors in effect group tend to be easily
impacted by others, which makes them unsuitable to be CSFs. The KE-WFH (work from
home), KF-RSP (Rescheduling the production) and KF-SC (Reevaluate the supply chain)
having the (D þ R) score of 1.935, 1921 and 1.945, respectively, and lie in the IVth quadrant.
This shows their high degree of prominence but low relationship with others. It suggests
that although KF-WFH, KF-RSP and KF-SC are not good receivers, still they have an
apparent impact on the whole system.
5. Conclusion COVID-19
Leaders from the G20 (Group of 20) richest nations expect recovery from the economic crisis preventive
to take the form of a V-shaped curve, with a sharp and short-lived dip, followed by a rapid
recovery and economic growth (Nicola et al., 2020), but this is going to happen only if the
strategy
business develops a system with CSFs to foster the economic activities in time with new
challenges and without spreading COVID-19. This study identified six CSFs using fuzzy
DEMATEL method. The six CSFs identified are “Effective communication”, “Social
distancing”, “Adopting new technology”, “Modifying the rules and regulation at workplace”, 371
“Sealing the borders of the territory” and “Strong leadership and government control”.
Another interesting conclusion that could be drawn from the study is that the key factors
such as work from home, rescheduling the production, re-evaluate the supply chain,
developing online purchasing behaviors and digitally enabled delivery systems are not
considered as CSFs.
Surprisingly, “Work from home” did not come out as critical, especially when all other
studies are talking about its importance. The possible cause could be that it cannot be
directly improved. It means that although work from home reduces the risk of spreading
COVID-19, but its contribution to the economy is subjected to its delivery quality, which
again is dependent on other CSFs such as adoption of new technology. Thus, any change in
the CSFs could bring change in these key factors present in quadrant IV of the model. These
are important key factors but do not have an impact on other factors. Key factors such as
identifying the key employees, prioritizing the human resource, anti-dumping duties,
unemployment benefits by Government, fumigation chamber and altering the product line
are relatively disconnected from the system (called autonomous receivers). The reason could
be that they are effective for short-term strategy and are not suitable for long-term COVID-
19 preventive strategy that focuses on the economy. For example, in long run, it is not
feasible to prefer younger employees over the older one just because younger people have
greater immunity and resistance towards COVID-19. Similarly, imposing high import duties
to promote domestic industry for a longer duration of time is also not a viable solution. Even
providing unemployment benefits for an extended time stretch is not advisable.
The preventive strategy based on identified CSFs seems to be more relevant in Spain,
Portugal and all of the Ibero-American nations that have shared common background leading
to similar language, interest and conditions. Moreover, in this region, economy is largely based
on commodity exports, and it is an industry intensive economy. The developing countries in
Ibero-American region are facing financial slowdown in recent times and with the onset of
COVID-19 pandemic, the economic depression is one of the largest in modern history. Within
micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which represent 99% of firms and 60%
of employment in Latin American and Caribbean countries, it is primarily the micro and small
enterprises that are at risk of going bankrupt. Additionally, the average fiscal deficit in the
region worsened and public debt increased to 3.0 and 62% of GDP, respectively. The limited
resources will force these countries to concentrate on selected CSFs only instead of considering
all of the preventive measures at a time.
Like any other growing economy Ibero-American is vulnerable to COVID-19 due to the
existence of weak states, fragile health-care systems, low economic growth rates, high levels
of poverty and inequality. Based on these factors, it is safe to apply the findings of this
research to most of the world including Ibero-American region.

6. Limitations and future research

As with all other researches, this research paper has few limitations. First, at the time of
writing, it is still too premature to express the quantitative effects of the identified CSFs. The
MRJIAM subject matter of this study is very dynamic and changing very fast, and it is not possible to
18,4 validate the proposed model quantitatively.
Second, the list of key factors considered by the study is not exhaustive. There is a
limitation on the number of factors taken, as in DEMATEL, the evaluation by the
respondents becomes practically difficult with an increase in the number of factors.
The third limitation is that we have engaged only ten experts. Future research could
372 be done with a large number of respondents. Future researchers could use other multiple-
criteria decision analysis techniques to validate the results of this study. Sensitivity
analysis can also be performed to check the robustness of the model. A case study could
also be developed by the researchers in the future for exploring an explicit problem.
Future studies could be conducted considering a specific sector, industry or country, as
the authors in this research have presented a holistic view without any specific
consideration.

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Appendix. Mathematical DEMATEL procedure

Step 1: Generation of the fuzzy direct-relation matrix

To identify the model of the relations among the n criteria, an n  n matrix is first generated. The
influence of the element in each row exerted on the element in each column of this matrix can be
represented by a fuzzy number. If multiple experts’ opinions are used, all experts must complete the
matrix. The arithmetic mean of all of the experts’ opinions is used to generate the direct relation matrix z.
2 3
0    ~z n1
6 .. .. . 7
z¼4 . . .. 5
~z 1n  0

Table of direct relation matrix is given in electronic supplementary material.

MRJIAM Step 2: Normalization of the fuzzy direct-relation matrix
18,4 The normalized fuzzy direct-relation matrix (given in electronic supplementary material) can be
obtained using the following formula:
 
~z lij mij uij
~x ij ¼ ij ¼ ; ;
r r r r
where
376 ( )
X
n
r ¼ max max X
j¼1n
uij ; max uij i; j 2 f1; 2; 3; . . . ; ng
i;j i j
i¼1

Step 3: Calculation of the fuzzy total-relation matrix

In Step 3, the fuzzy total-relation matrix can be calculated by the following formula:
 
~ ¼ lim ~x 1  ~x 2  . . .  ~x k
T
k!þ1
 
If each element of the fuzzy total-relation matrix is expressed as ~t ij ¼ l}ij ; m}ij ; u}ij , it can be
calculated as follows:
h i

1
lij} ¼ xl  ðI
xl Þ
h i

1
m}ij ¼ xm  ðI
xm Þ
h i

1
u}ij ¼ xu  ð I
xu Þ

In other words, in the normalized matrix the inverse is first calculated, and then it is subtracted from
the matrix I, and finally the normalized matrix is multiplied by the resulting matrix. The values are
presented in Fuzzy total-relation matrix (given in electronic supplementary material).

Step 4: Conversion of fuzzy values (defuzzification) into crisp values

The CFCS method proposed by Opricovic and Tzeng has been used to obtain a crisp value of total-
relation matrix. The steps of CFCS method are as follows:
 
lijt
minlijt
lijn ¼ max
 Dmin 
mtij
min lijt
mnij ¼
 Dmax
min 
utij
min lijt
unij ¼
Dmax
min

So that

Dmax
min ¼ maxuij
minlij
t t

Calculating the upper and lower bounds of normalized values:

 n
.
lijs ¼ mij COVID-19
.ð ij ij Þ
1þmn
l n
n
preventive
usij ¼ uij strategy
ð1þunij
lijn Þ

The output of the CFCS algorithm is crisp values.

Calculating total normalized crisp values: 377
h   i
lijs 1
lijs þ usij  usij
xij ¼ h i
1
lijs þ usij

Step 5: Setting of the threshold value

The threshold value must be obtained to calculate the internal relations matrix. Accordingly, partial
relations are neglected and the Network Relationship Map (NRM) is plotted. Only relations whose
values in matrix T is greater than the threshold value are depicted in the NRM. To compute the
threshold value for relations, it is sufficient to calculate the average values of the matrix T. After
the threshold intensity is determined, all values in matrix T which are smaller than the threshold
value are set to zero, that is, the causal relation mentioned above is not considered.
In this study, the threshold value is equal to 0.0390. All the values in matrix T which are smaller
than 0.0390 are set to zero, that is, the causal relation mentioned above is not considered. The model
of significant relations is presented in the crisp total- relationships matrix (given in electronic
supplementary material) by considering the threshold value.

Step 6: Final output and creation of a causal relation diagram

The next step is to find out the sum of each row and each column of T (in step 4). The sum of rows (D)
and columns (R) can be calculated as follows:

X
n
D¼ Tij
j¼1
Xn
R¼ Tij
i¼1

Then, the values of D þ R and D
R can be calculated by D and R, where D þ R represents the degree
of importance of factor “i” in the entire system and D-R represent net effects that factor “i” contributes
to the system.
The final output (Cause and Effect relation matrix) is given in Table 2, and Figure 1 shows the
digraph for key factors.

Corresponding author
Ankur Kashyap can be contacted at: ankur555in@gmail.com

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