EXERCCIOS DO CAPTULO 4

1. The Strictly Running store experienced the following running shoe demand during the
past year:
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Demand for Running Shoes

1,150
1,180
1,200
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,250
1,200
1,280
1,300
1,350
1,300

Strictly Running would like to use this data to make forecasts for months 6-12 using the
following models:
a) Moving average 3 periods
PERODO
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2

DEMANDA
1,200
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,250
1,200
1,280
1,300
1,350
1,300
1,150
1,180

Clculo da Previso
Mm 3 4 5 = 1,200+1,000+ 1,015 : 3= 1,08
Mm 6 7 8 = 1,100+1,250+ 1,200 : 3= 1,18
Mm 9 10 11 = 1,280 +1,300+ 1,350 : 3= 1,31

Mm 12 1 2 = 1,300 +1,150+ 1,180 : 3= 1,21

Como o modelo iniciou em maro, consideraram-se os dados de janeiro e fevereiro do ano
anterior para a continuao do modelo.

b) Moving average: 5 periods

PERODO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3

DEMANDA
1,150
1,180
1,200
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,250
1,200
1,280
1,300
1,350
1,300
1,150
1,180
1,200

Clculo da Previso
Mm 1 2 3 4 5 = 1,150 +1,180 + 1,200 + 1,000 + 1,050 : 5 = 1,116
Mm 6 7 8 9 10 = 1,100 + 1,250+ 1,200 + 1, 280 + 1, 300 : 5 = 1, 226
Mm 11 12 1 2 3 = 1,350 +1,300+ 1,150 + 1,150 +1,180 + 1,200 : 5 = 1, 236
- Como o modelo detm 5 perodos, levou-se em conta os dados dos perodos 1,2,3 do ano
anterior para a continuao do modelo.
c) Single exponential smoothing = 0.1
alfa
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1

Perodo demanda previso erro

1
1,150
2
1,180
1,150
0,03
3
1,200
1,153
0,047
4
1,000
1,158
-0,1577
5
1,050
1,142 -0,09193
6
1,100
1,133 -0,03274

d) Single exponential smoothing = 0.5

alfa
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5

Perodo
1
2
3
4
5
6

demanda previso erro

1,150
1,180
1,150
0,03
1,200
1,165
0,035
1,000
1,183
-0,1825
1,050
1,091 -0,04125
1,100
1,071 0,029375

e) Single exponential smoothing = 0.9

alfa
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9

Perodo demanda previso erro

1
1,150
2
1,180
1,150
0,03
3
1,200
1,177
0,023
4
1,000
1,198 -0,1977
5
1,050
1,020 0,03023
6
1,100
1,047 0,053023

3.The Nostate Auto Insurance Co. had the following claims experience during the past two
years:
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Year 1
500
550
480
510
490
530
600
650
720
750
890
1,050

Year 2
1,300
1,700
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,500
2,700
2,600
2,900
3,200
3,500
4,000

Nostate would like to use this data to make forecasts for months 8-24 using the following
models:

a) Moving average 7 months

PERODO
1
2
3
4

DEMANDA
500
550
480
510

5
6
7

490
530
600

Clculo da Previso
Mm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 500 + 550 + 480 + 510 + 490 + 530 + 600 : 7 = 522,85

b) Exponential smoothing = 0.2

alfa
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2

perodo demanda previso erro

1
500
2
550
500
50
3
480
510
-30
4
510
504
6
5
490
505,2
-15,2
6
530
502,16
27,84
7
600 507,728
92,272
8
650 526,1824 123,8176

c) Exponential smoothing = 0.5

alfa
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5
0,5

Perodo demanda previso erro

1
500
2
550
500
50
3
480
525
-45
4
510
502,5
7,5
5
490
506,25
-16,25
6
530 498,125
31,875
7
600 514,0625 85,9375
8
650 557,0313 92,96875

d) Exponential smoothing = 0.9

alfa
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9
0,9

Perodo demanda previso erro

1
500
2
550
500
50
3
480
545
-65
4
510
486,5
23,5
5
490
507,65
-17,65
6
530 491,765
38,235
7
600 526,1765 73,8235
8
650 592,6177 57,38235

EXERCCIOS DO CAPTULO 6

1. Susan Bromley, operations management at Enviro-Tech, Inc., has collected data

concerning three new plant locations. The fixed and variable costs for these three are as
follows:
Location
1
2
3

Quantidade
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000

Fixed Cost per Year

$500,000
1,700,000
1,100,000

1
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
1200000
1300000
1400000
1500000
1600000
1700000
1800000
1900000
2000000
2100000
2200000
2300000
2400000
2500000
2600000
2700000
2800000
2900000
3000000
3100000
3200000
3300000
3400000
3500000

Variable Cost per Unit

$1,000
200
500

2
1720000
1740000
1760000
1780000
1800000
1820000
1840000
1860000
1880000
1900000
1920000
1940000
1960000
1980000
2000000
2020000
2040000
2060000
2080000
2100000
2120000
2140000
2160000
2180000
2200000
2220000
2240000
2260000
2280000
2300000

3
1150000
1200000
1250000
1300000
1350000
1400000
1450000
1500000
1550000
1600000
1650000
1700000
1750000
1800000
1850000
1900000
1950000
2000000
2050000
2100000
2150000
2200000
2250000
2300000
2350000
2400000
2450000
2500000
2550000
2600000

a) Plot the total cost curves for the three potential locations on a graph. Using this graph,
identify the range in volume over which each location would be best.

Curva de Custo Total para Empresas 1, 2 e 3

3500000
3000000

Custo Total

2500000
2000000
Empresa 1

1500000

Empresa 2
1000000

Empresa 3

500000
0

Quantidade

b) Calculate the break-even quantity for locations 1 and 2, 1 and 3, and 2 and 3.
TC1 = TC2
500000+1000Q = 1700000+200Q
Q=
Q = 1500

TC1 = TC3
500000+1000Q = 1100000+500Q
Q=
Q = 1200

TC1 = TC3
1700000+200Q = 1100000+500Q

Q=
Q = 1500

2. A company is considering three locations for a new distribution warehouse: Durham,

North Carolina; Charlottesville, Virginia; and Knoxville, Tennessee. Using the following
information, determine the range in volume over which each location would be
preferable:

Location
Durham, N. C.
Charlottesville, Va.
Knoxville, Tenn.

Quantidade
1000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000

Fixed Cost per Year

$1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000

DURKHAM
1250000
1450000
1700000
1950000
2200000
2450000
2700000
2950000
3200000
3450000
3700000
3950000
4200000
4450000
4700000
4950000
5200000

Variable Cost per Unit

$50
40
30

CHARLOTTESVILLE
1640000
1800000
2000000
2200000
2400000
2600000
2800000
3000000
3200000
3400000
3600000
3800000
4000000
4200000
4400000
4600000
4800000

KNOXVILLE
2030000
2150000
2300000
2450000
2600000
2750000
2900000
3050000
3200000
3350000
3500000
3650000
3800000
3950000
4100000
4250000
4400000

a) Plot the total cost curves for the three potential locations on a graph. Using this graph,
identify the range in volume over which each location would be best.

Curva de Custo Total para Empresas Durham,

Charlottesville e Knoxville
6000000
5000000

Custo Total

4000000
3000000

DURHAM
CHARLOTTESVILLE

2000000

KNOXVILLE
1000000
0

Quantidade

b) Calculate the break-even quantity for locations 1 and 2, 1 and 3, and 2 and 3.
TCDurham = TCCharlottesville
1200000+50Q = 1600000+40Q
Q=
Q = 40000

TCDurham = TCKnoxville
1200000+50Q = 2000000+30Q
Q=
Q = 40000

TCCharlottesville = TCKnoxville
1600000+40Q = 2000000+30Q
Q=
Q = 40000