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AnaliseSobrevida 2009a
AnaliseSobrevida 2009a
Anlise de Sobrevida
Anlise de sobrevida
Definies:
Tempo de sobrevida:
Medido para cada indivduo, desde sua entrada no estudo at a
ocorrncia do "evento" (falha).
Indivduos podem entrar no estudo em qualquer perodo
durante o tempo do estudo.
Anlise de sobrevida
Dado censurado:
Censura
Censura devida a:
Incio do
estudo
Fim do
estudo
Dados censurados
Exemplo: Leucemia
Grupo controle:
1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 15 17 22 23
Grupo tratado:
6* 6 6 6 7 9* 10* 10 11* 13 16 17* 19* 20* 22 23 25* 32* 32* 34* 35*
Grupo tratado:
6* 6 6 6 7 9* 10* 10 11* 13 16 17* 19* 20* 22 23 25* 32* 32* 34* 35*
1: Controle
Obs Tempo recidiva Grupo
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
3
2
1
1
4
2
1
1
5
3
1
1
6
4
1
1
7
4
1
1
8
5
1
1
9
5
1
1
10
8
1
1
11
8
1
1
12
8
1
1
13
8
1
1
14
11
1
1
15
11
1
1
16
12
1
1
17
12
1
1
18
15
1
1
19
17
1
1
20
22
1
1
21
23
1
1
2:Tratamento
Obs Tempo recidiva Grupo
0
2
22
6
23
6
1
2
24
6
1
2
25
6
1
2
26
7
1
2
27
9
0
2
28
10
0
2
29
10
1
2
30
11
0
2
31
13
1
2
32
16
1
2
33
17
0
2
34
19
0
2
35
20
0
2
36
22
1
2
37
23
1
2
38
25
0
2
39
32
0
2
40
32
0
2
41
34
0
2
42
35
0
2
Interpretao:
6* indivduo ainda em remisso
depois de 6 semanas no estudo, e
no observado aps este tempo.
6 indivduos conhecidos como em
remisso por 6 semanas, mas
tiveram recada entre a 6a. e a
7a. semanas.
Observar:
Nenhuma censura no grupo
controle (todos "falharam")
Parece que o tempo de sobrevida
maior para os do grupo tratado
Stata:
Stata:
1 Abrir o banco
File Open.. diretrio
banco
. use C:\Data\leucemia.dta"
. desc
Contains data from E:\Regressao\Sobrevida\AulaPratica\Bancos\leucemia.dta
obs:
42
vars:
4
11 Nov 2009 10:20
size:
336 (99.9% of memory free)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------storage display
value
variable name
type
format
label
variable label
----------------------------------------------------------------------------obs
byte
%8.0g
Obs
tempo
byte
%8.0g
Tempo ate a recaida
recidiva
byte
%8.0g
recidiva
Retorno da doenca
grupo
byte
%8.0g
grp
Grupos de comparacao
----------------------------------------------------------------------------Sorted by:
Funo de sobrevida:
Stata:
recidiva == 1
(0, tempo]
failure
Se no houver censura:
1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 15 17 22 23
S (t ) =
S (10) =
8
= 0.381
21
N total de indivduos
Sempre
decrescente
S(t)
0 S(t) 1
0
S ( 22) =
1
= 0.048
21
N total de indivduos
t: 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 15 17 22 23
mt = n de falhas no instante t.
S (t ) =
P(D1)=2/21
21
N de sobreviventes no instante t
n
m t a c u m u la d a
S (t)
0
1
2
3
4
5
8
11
12
15
17
22
23
0
2
2
1
2
2
4
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
2
4
5
7
9
13
15
17
18
19
20
21
( 2 1 - 0 ) /2 1 = 2 1 /2 1 = 1 .0 0
( 2 1 - 2 ) /2 1 = 1 9 /2 1 = 0 .9 1
( 2 1 - 4 ) /2 1 = 1 7 /2 1 = 0 .8 1
( 2 1 - 5 ) /2 1 = 1 6 /2 1 = 0 .7 6
( 2 1 - 7 ) /2 1 = 1 4 /2 1 = 0 .6 7
( 2 1 - 9 ) /2 1 = 1 2 /2 1 = 0 .5 7
( 2 1 - 1 3 ) /2 1 = 8 /2 1 = 0 .3 8
( 2 1 - 1 5 ) /2 1 = 6 /2 1 = 0 .2 9
( 2 1 - 1 7 ) /2 1 = 4 /2 1 = 0 .1 9
( 2 1 - 1 8 ) /2 1 = 3 /2 1 = 0 .1 4
( 2 1 - 1 9 ) /2 1 = 2 /2 1 = 0 .1 0
( 2 1 - 2 0 ) /2 1 = 1 /2 1 = 0 .0 5
( 2 1 - 2 1 ) /2 1 = 0 /2 1 = 0 .0 0
D2
(2)
S1
(19)
1/17
17/19
mt
D3
(1)
S2
(17)
P(S2| S1)
2/16
16/17
21 - 0
= 1.00
21
19 19
= 1
=
= 0.91
21 21
19 17 17
=
=
= 0.81
21 19 21
19 17 16
16
=
=
= 0.76
21 19 17
21
19 17 16 14 14
=
=
= 0.67
21
21 19 17 16
S(0) =
S(1)
S(2)
S(3)
S(4)
Curva de sobrevida:
a representao grfica da Funo de sobrevida S(t) no eixo vertical vs. os
tempos de sobrevida (t) no eixo horizontal
D4
(2)
S3
(16)
14/16
t: 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 8 11 11 12 12 15 17 22 23
S4
(15)
h(t ) = lim
0.75
1.00
2/19
P(S1)=19/21
0.25
0.50
Funo de Hazard:
0.00
S(t)
D1
(2)
10
15
analysis time
20
25
(t)
h(t ) =
Exemplo:
Stata:
Statistics
6* 6 6 6 7 9* 10* 10 11* 13 16 17* 19* 20* 22 23 25* 32* 32* 34* 35*
Survival analysis
Summary statistics, test, & tables
Summarize survival-time data
h ( 6) =
3
= 0.143
21
n sob risco no incio do intervalo de tempo 6
1
h(7) = = 0.059
17
failure _d:
analysis time _t:
. stsum, by(trtment)
failure _d:
analysis time _t:
relapse == 1
weeks
|
incidence
no. of
|------ Survival time -----|
trtment | time at risk
rate
subjects
25%
50%
75%
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------0:stand |
182
.1153846
21
4
8
12
1:trt |
359
.0250696
21
13
23
.
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------total |
541
.0554529
42
6
12
23
recidiva == 1
tempo
|
incidence
no. of
|------ Survival time -----|
| time at risk
rate
subjects
25%
50%
75%
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------total |
541
.0554529
42
6
12
23
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
. sts graph
failure _d: relapse == 0 1
analysis time _t: weeks
10
40
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
30
1.00
20
analysis time
10
20
analysis time
trtment = 0:stand
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
10
20
analysis time
grupo = Controle
30
grupo = Tratamento
recidiva == 1
tempo
40
30
trtment = 1:trt
40
S(t) pode ser derivada de uma funo h(t) para dados censurados
d6
(3)
3/21
S(0) = 1 - h(0)
S(1) = [1-h(0)] x [1 - h(1)]
S(2) = [1-h(0)] x [1 - h(1)] x [1 - h(2)]
C6
(1)
21
d7
(1)
1/17
C7
S6
(17)
d10
(0)
(1)
Ou:
1/16
16/17
21 - 0
P(S7| S6)
= 1.00
21
3
S(6) = 1 (1 ) = 0.86
21
3
1
S(7) = 1 (1 ) (1 - ) = 0.806
21
17
S(0) = 1 - h(0)
S(1) = S(0) x [1 - h(1)]
S(2) = S(1) x [1 - h(2)]
S(3) = S(2) x [1 - h(3)]
S(0) =
S7
C10
(16)
(2)
S10
(13)
Mtodo de Kaplan-Meier
Grupo tratado: 6* 6 6 6 7 9* 10* 10 11* 13 16 17* 19* 20* 22 23 25* 32* 32* 34* 35*
nj
21
21
mj
0
0
qj
0
0
H(t) = mt
0 / 21 = .000
0 / 21 = .000
21
17
16
16
15
3
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
3 / 21 = .143
1 / 17 = .059
0 / 16 = .000
0 / 16 = .000
1 / 15 = .067
[13-14)
12
1 / 12 = .083
0.25
[16-17)
11
1 / 11 = .091
0.75
[6-7)
[7-8)
[8-9)
[9-10)
[10-11)
0.00
1.00
tj
[0-1)
[1-2)
0.50
As probabilidades acumuladas de
sobrevida nos perodos so:
[22-23)
[23-24)
[24-25)
7
6
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
1 / 7 = .143
1 / 6 = .167
0 / 5 = .000
[35-36)
0 / 1 = .000
.447 x [1 0]
10
20
analysis time
30
40
1
0.92
= .447
0.9
0.9
0.87
0.87
0.77
0.8
0.8
0.71
0.7
0.7
0.67
0.67
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0
0.5
0
Stata:
Statistics
Tabelas de Vida
Survival analysis
Summary statistics, test, & tables
Life tables for survival data
Survival
0.9524
0.9048
0.8810
0.8333
0.7857
0.7132
0.6886
0.5902
0.5902
0.5640
0.5090
0.4524
0.4241
0.3959
0.3676
0.3382
0.3382
0.3382
0.2630
0.1879
0.1879
0.1879
0.1879
0.1879
Error
0.0329
0.0453
0.0500
0.0575
0.0633
0.0700
0.0717
0.0765
0.0765
0.0775
0.0791
0.0798
0.0796
0.0792
0.0784
0.0775
0.0775
0.0775
0.0763
0.0706
0.0706
0.0706
0.0706
0.0706
[95% Conf.
0.8227
0.7658
0.7373
0.6819
0.6286
0.5505
0.5247
0.4258
0.4258
0.3999
0.3464
0.2934
0.2679
0.2430
0.2187
0.1939
0.1939
0.1939
0.1294
0.0744
0.0744
0.0744
0.0744
0.0744
Int.]
0.9879
0.9631
0.9486
0.9168
0.8822
0.8258
0.8059
0.7221
0.7221
0.6991
0.6504
0.5987
0.5721
0.5450
0.5174
0.4884
0.4884
0.4884
0.4180
0.3410
0.3410
0.3410
0.3410
0.3410
Beg.
Std.
Interval
Total
Deaths
Lost
Survival
Error
[95% Conf. Int.]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Controle
1
2
21
2
0
0.9048
0.0641
0.6700
0.9753
2
3
19
2
0
0.8095
0.0857
0.5689
0.9239
3
4
17
1
0
0.7619
0.0929
0.5194
0.8933
4
5
16
2
0
0.6667
0.1029
0.4254
0.8250
5
6
14
2
0
0.5714
0.1080
0.3380
0.7492
8
9
12
4
0
0.3810
0.1060
0.1831
0.5778
11
12
8
2
0
0.2857
0.0986
0.1166
0.4818
12
13
6
2
0
0.1905
0.0857
0.0595
0.3774
15
16
4
1
0
0.1429
0.0764
0.0357
0.3212
17
18
3
1
0
0.0952
0.0641
0.0163
0.2612
22
23
2
1
0
0.0476
0.0465
0.0033
0.1970
23
24
1
1
0
0.0000
.
.
.
Tratamento
6
7
21
3
1
0.8537
0.0781
0.6119
0.9503
7
8
17
1
0
0.8034
0.0882
0.5573
0.9213
9
10
16
0
1
0.8034
0.0882
0.5573
0.9213
10
11
15
1
1
0.7480
0.0980
0.4952
0.8870
11
12
13
0
1
0.7480
0.0980
0.4952
0.8870
13
14
12
1
0
0.6857
0.1078
0.4257
0.8464
16
17
11
1
0
0.6234
0.1146
0.3631
0.8021
17
18
10
0
1
0.6234
0.1146
0.3631
0.8021
19
20
9
0
1
0.6234
0.1146
0.3631
0.8021
20
21
8
0
1
0.6234
0.1146
0.3631
0.8021
22
23
7
1
0
0.5343
0.1283
0.2651
0.7439
23
24
6
1
0
0.4453
0.1343
0.1864
0.6773
25
26
5
0
1
0.4453
0.1343
0.1864
0.6773
32
33
4
0
2
0.4453
0.1343
0.1864
0.6773
34
35
2
0
1
0.4453
0.1343
0.1864
0.6773
35
36
1
0
1
0.4453
0.1343
0.1864
0.6773
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
do
log rank =
(O2 E 2)2
Var (O 2 E 2)
Survival analysis
Summary statistics, test, & tables
Test equality of survivor functions
2
(G 1)
Onde:
(O 2 E 2) = (m2 j e2 j )
G = 2 grupos
j =1
recidiva == 1
tempo
|
Events
Events
grupo
| observed
expected
-----------+------------------------Controle
|
21
10.75
Tratamento |
9
19.25
-----------+------------------------Total
|
30
30.00
chi2(1) =
Pr>chi2 =
16.79
0.0000
chi2(2) =
Pr>chi2 =
. sts test
26.39
0.0000
lgwbccat, peto
chi2(1) =
Pr>chi2 =
14.08
0.0002
|
Events
Events
Sum of
lgwbccat | observed
expected
ranks
---------+-------------------------------------Low
|
4
13.06
-5.4643843
Medium
|
10
10.72
-1.2203977
:High
|
16
6.21
6.6847821
---------+-------------------------------------Total
|
30
30.00
0
chi2(2) =
Pr>chi2 =
1.00
0.75
0
|
Events
Events
Sum of
trtment | observed
expected
ranks
--------+-------------------------------------0:stand |
21
10.75
6.3622095
1:trt
|
9
19.25
-6.3622095
--------+-------------------------------------Total
|
30
30.00
0
0.50
|
Events
Events
lgwbccat | observed
expected
---------+------------------------Low
|
4
13.06
Medium
|
10
10.72
:High
|
16
6.21
---------+------------------------Total
|
30
30.00
0.25
0.00
failure _d:
analysis time _t:
21.37
0.0000
10
20
analysis time
lgwbccat = Low
lgwbccat = :High
30
lgwbccat = Medium
40
Exemplo:
Sobrevida de mulheres com cncer cervical aps a data do diagnstico
Tabelas de vida
Funo de Hazard (Mtodo atuarial):
h(t ) =
Estgio I:
Regresso de Cox
Modelo e Pressupostos
Modela os dados usando o hazard fora de morbidade ou
mortalidade instantnea
Pressuposto:
h1(t) = h0(t) * B
h1(t) = h0(t) * e b
Mais de 1 confundidor:
Modelagem matemtica a escolha mais razovel.
HR =
h1 (t ) = b
e
h 0 (t )
Log(HR) = b
Informao geral:
h(t , X ) = h0 (t )e X
i
Exemplo:
h(t , X ) = h0 (t )e
e X
i
Obs: No h intercepto
Razo de Hazard
Razo de Hazard
trtment:
age:
1 = tratamento experimental
0 = tratamento padro
h(t,X) = h0(t)e(trtment)
X1 = 50
X2 = 50
h(t,X) = h0(t)e(age)
trtment = 1:
h(t,trtment) = h0(t)e(1)
age = 50:
h(t,age) = h0(t)e(50)
trtment = 0:
h(t,trtment) = h0(t)e(0)
age = 60:
h(t,age) = h0(t)e(60)
Razo de Hazard ( HR ) =
h(t ,0) h0 (t )e
HR =
h0 (t , X *) ( X X )
=e
h0 (t , X )
HR = e
*
i
[ 1 ( X 1* X 1 ) + 2 ( X 2* X 2 ) +...+ k ( X k* X k )]
Varivel
Sexo (masc=1, fem=0)
Fumo (sim=1, no=0)
Idade55 (idade55=1,
Idade<55=0)
Hipertenso (sim=1, no=0)
Hipercolesterolemia (sim=1,
no=0)
Obesidade (sim=1, no=0)
Coeficiente b1
1.2669
0.6803
0.1391
Hazard Ratio
3.55
1.97
1.15
0.5030
0.4552
1.65
1.58
0.1876
1.21
Semelhanas:
CHD uma doena relativamente rara OR HR
As perdas de follow-up e a distribuio dos tempos at a
ocorrncia do evento so provavelmente no diferenciais
entre os grupos (os vieses tendem a cancelar)