aos

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

HC
PERCAPITA
0,00061139
0,000470072
0,000428052
0,000773125
0,002685544
0,002315043
0,002007315
0,001306725
0,001373539
0,004048818
0,001055144
0,001225712
0,003317874
0,00113568
0,001327244
0,001361688
0,001315113
0,001294844
0,001149683
0,001103799
0,000694661
0,000620834
0,000553952
0,000552773
0,000866233
0,000667539
0,000840315
0,000898048
0,000746612
0,000739886
0,000788297

PIB TRANSPORTE PER

CAPITA
0,282227806
0,285832791
0,292544622
0,311029299
0,343204173
0,368220646
0,389689126
0,415418261
0,434431456
0,448030479
0,480831554
0,477697666
0,47539541
0,435089141
0,430536761
0,430783603
0,428317256
0,435425165
0,438758424
0,421816731
0,42433749
0,430556085
0,431933712
0,432765686
0,436627752
0,436736475
0,44050265
0,4425333
0,436938809
0,388152756
0,388885006

PIB INDUSTRIA PER

CAPITA
0,21360134
0,238955758
0,311325225
0,461942016
0,45119225
0,447256407
0,495568997
0,495817387
0,527935707
0,544775927
0,528476322
0,5540022
0,539540968
0,554271822
0,548150654
0,551939774
0,538713826
0,428218806
0,510057178
0,469807558
0,447164848
0,458246048
0,464872917
0,479063838
0,502183406
0,506439791
0,502496153
0,121086538
0,128574127
0,098642993
0,065815522

PIB SER BSICOS PER

Cap
0,042579564
0,043900455
0,046801453
0,049777573
0,053755589
0,060532793
0,066239977
0,073182067
0,075943146
0,079994834
0,084022108
0,085689845
0,08463551
0,080852049
0,081461434
0,083789427
0,08908896
0,088453091
0,09171942
0,096699571
0,098928293
0,102599505
0,106126059
0,108487387
0,110640763
0,111745201
0,112856899
0,114820307
0,114366324
0,105050672
0,108190979

MODELO MATEMTICO

Contaminacin de Hc = f(PIB transporte; PIB industria; PIB servicios bsicos)

MODELO ECONOMTRICO

De donde la variable explicada o dependiente es la contaminacin por hidrocarburos per

cpita y las variables explicativas son el PIB per cpita del sector transporte, PIB per cpita del
sector industria y PIB per cpita de servicios bsicos que son los sectores con mayor consumo
principalmente de petrleo, crudo y sus derivados.

MODELO ORIGINAL
Dependent Variable: CHC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:41
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBINDUST
PIBSEVI
PIBTANS

159057.3
0.001637
-0.001260
0.001299

647582.4
0.000851
0.004963
0.001166

0.245617
1.924213
-0.253956
1.114250

0.8078
0.0649
0.8015
0.2750

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.178396
0.087107
860604.6
2.00E+13
-465.4729
1.611622

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1160517.
900728.2
30.28857
30.47360
1.954188
0.144707

MODELOS PARA VER LA IMPORTANCIA DE CADA VARIABLE

CHC F(PIBINDUST)
Dependent Variable: CHC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:43
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBINDUST

464654.1
0.001792

354923.9
0.000825

1.309165
2.171564

0.2008
0.0382

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.139866
0.110207
849646.7
2.09E+13
-466.1832
1.578340

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1160517.
900728.2
30.20537
30.29789
4.715688
0.038211

CHC F(PIBSEVI)
Dependent Variable: CHC
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:44
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBSEVI

1314763.
-0.001981

438016.1
0.005215

3.001632
-0.379822

0.0055
0.7068

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.004950
-0.029362
913856.2
2.42E+13
-468.4417
1.570091

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1160517.
900728.2
30.35107
30.44359
0.144264
0.706845

CHC F(PIBTANS)

Dependent Variable: CHC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:44
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBTANS

593040.3
0.001589

453451.6
0.001188

1.307836
1.337122

0.2012
0.1916

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.058071
0.025591
889128.2
2.29E+13
-467.5913
1.619259

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1160517.
900728.2
30.29621
30.38873
1.787896
0.191577

MULTICOLINEALIDAD ( AQU RELACIONAMOS LAS VARIABLES INDEPENDIENTES ENTR E

TODAS ELLAS).

PIBINDUST F(PIBSEVI)
Dependent Variable: PIBINDUST
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:47
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBSEVI

4.41E+08
-0.678065

91039818
1.083913

4.845887
-0.625571

0.0000
0.5365

0.013315
-0.020709
1.90E+08
1.05E+18
-633.8824
1.035284

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

3.88E+08
1.88E+08
41.02467
41.11718
0.391339
0.536489

PIBINDUST F(PIBTANS)

Dependent Variable: PIBINDUST

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:48
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBTANS

3.21E+08
0.189825

96588612
0.253134

3.318973
0.749900

0.0024
0.4594

0.019022
-0.014804
1.89E+08
1.04E+18
-633.7924
1.200749

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

3.88E+08
1.88E+08
41.01887
41.11138
0.562350
0.459356

PIBTANS F(PIBSEVI)

Dependent Variable: PIBTANS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:49
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

PIBSEVI

3.984228

0.398516

9.997659

0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood

-0.861355
-0.861355
1.86E+08
1.04E+18
-633.8186

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Durbin-Watson stat

3.57E+08
1.37E+08
40.95604
41.00229
1.040613

PIBINDUST F(PIBSEVI, PIBTANS)

Dependent Variable: PIBINDUST
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:50
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBSEVI
PIBTANS

3.74E+08
-0.738633
0.201976

1.25E+08
1.093755
0.256174

2.982048
-0.675319
0.788431

0.0059
0.5050
0.4371

0.034744
-0.034203
1.91E+08
1.02E+18
-633.5420
1.149104

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

3.88E+08
1.88E+08
41.06723
41.20600
0.503929
0.609528

PIBSEV F(PIBINDUST, PIBTANS)

Dependent Variable: PIBSEVI

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:50
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBINDUST
PIBTANS

78952814
-0.021698
0.020569

19631141
0.032130
0.044221

4.021815
-0.675319
0.465152

0.0004
0.5050
0.6454

0.020881
-0.049056
32769020
3.01E+16
-578.8643
1.116050

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

77871992
31993670
37.53963
37.67840
0.298565
0.744214

PIBTANS
F(PIBINDUST,
PIBSEVI)

Dependent Variable: PIBTANS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/26/11 Time: 23:52
Sample: 1980 2010
Included observations: 31
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
PIBINDUST
PIBSEVI

2.86E+08
0.107531
0.372795

89951767
0.136386
0.801447

3.183206
0.788431
0.465152

0.0036
0.4371
0.6454

0.026545
-0.042988
1.40E+08
5.45E+17
-623.7713
1.813388

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

3.57E+08
1.37E+08
40.43686
40.57563
0.381760
0.686158