ASSESSORIA DE IMPRENSA DO GABINETE

Seleo Diria de Notcias Internacionais

Quinta-feira, 20 de junho de 2013
MANIFESTAES NO BRASIL 3
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>a %ri:une $+rana' ( ?our&uoi le Brsil sEenfla55e F
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+inancial %i5es $6eino /nido' ( ?elC tells 3raAilians to Hfor4etE )rotests s#ee)in4 the countr" 12
+inancial %i5es $6eino /nido' ( BrazilEs )rotests $.ditorial' 13
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.l ?as $.s)anha' ( >as con8ersaciones de Gine:ra son cla8e )ara Siria $I)inio9<a8ier Solana' 21
ESTADOS UNIDOSDESARMAMENTO NUCLEAR $3
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>e +i4aro $+rana' ( >e fai:le Ccho de la doctrine antinuclCaire 2@
6euters $6eino /nido' ( +rance to 5aintain nuclear arsenal after I:a5a call 2K
.l ?as $.s)anha' ( 6usia re)lica &ue el desar5e de:e incluir el escudo anti5isiles 2B
+inancial %i5es $6eino /nido' ( I:a5a in 3erlin $.ditorial' 2B
IR% $8
%he %i5es $6eino /nido' ( .ase sanctions a4ainst Iran after election of assan 6o#hani, sa"s 6ussia
2D
+inancial %i5es $6eino /nido' ( o# the #est can end the nuclear stand-off #ith %ehran
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ORIENTE M&DIO E NORTE DA 'FRICA 3"
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+inancial %i5es $6eino /nido' ( .4")tEs ,orsi tries to shore u) )o)ular su))ort ahead of )rotest 33
MERCOSUL 3(
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AM&RICA LATINA E CARIBE 3,
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0nsa >atina $Itlia' ( >as +06- R)ro)onenR de5ocratiAar el estado 70
%he Sall Street <ournal $./0' ( ,inisters ,acTa" and 0:loncA" and General >a#son 0nnounce
Increased Su))ort to /N ,ission in aiti 71
.l ?as $.s)anha' ( .. // " -u:a reto5an el dilo4o so:re los acuerdos 5i4ratMrios 72
.l ?as $.s)anha' ( U?ierde .stados /nidos a >atinoa5CricaV $I)inio9 Shlo5o 3e5 05i' 73
EUROPA (-
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'FRICA -"
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>i:Cration $+rana' ( WIls a8aient la corde au couX $.ntre8ista9arouna %oureh' @@
DIREITOS .UMANOS -+
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TEMAS ECON/MICOS0 FINANCEIROS E COMERCIAIS -8
6euters $6eino /nido' ( Brazil inflation erodes R12ss344Es )o)ularit" ( )oll @D
6euters $6eino /nido' ( Brasil 8ai reto5ar cresci5ento ro:usto, diA %o5:iniYjornal @F
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2
MANIFESTAES NO BRASIL
Hrriyet News (Turquia) Brazil protests are not like those in
Turkey, FM says
After over a week of protests - the largest to sweep Brazil in more than two decades - that
continued in major capitals and moved to smaller cities, Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota
answered questions from the veteran CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday in
an exclusive interview.
The foreign minister said he did not think his country would see the type of violence and
confrontation that Turkey has seen in the past weeks.
"I think its a different situation; the manifestations have been peaceful, predominately,
Antonio Patriota said.
Amanpour then asked Patriota that if this was the case, why had the federal riot police
been sent to five major cities.
"There may be episodes of violence here and there and, of course, the security forces
have to be prepared because there are large numbers of people involved, Patriota told
Amanpour. "And our expectation is that they will continue to manifest in a peaceful way.
Echoing statements from President Dilma Rousseff, the foreign minister said in a calm
tone that Brazil is a stronger country because of the protests, and that these
demonstrations are all part of the democratic process.
"Her government has lifted millions out of the poverty and joined the middle class, he said
of the administrations of Rousseff and former President Lula da Silva. "And its natural
that rising living conditions should give rise to higher expectations.
Rousseff on Tuesday sought to defuse a massive protest movement sweeping Brazil,
acknowledging the need for better public services and more responsive governance as
demonstrations continued in some cities around the country.
"Brazil woke up stronger today," Rousseff said in a televised speech in Brasilia. "The size
of yesterday's [June 17] demonstrations shows the energy of our democracy, the strength
of the voice of the streets and the civility of our population."
CNN (EUA) Brazil s FM: This isnt like Turkeys protests (Blog
Amanpour)
By Samuel Burke
Brazil is in the throes of massive protests, but its foreign minister does not think that his
country will see the type of violence and confrontation that Turkey has seen in the past
weeks.
"I think its a different situation; the manifestations have been peaceful, predominately,
Antonio Patriota told CNNs Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday in an exclusive interview.
But federal riot police have been sent to five major cities.
"There may be episodes of violence here and there and, of course, the security forces have
to be prepared because there are large numbers of people involved, Patriota told
Amanpour. "And our expectation is that they will continue to manifest in a peaceful way.
3
Echoing statements from President Dilma Rousseff, the foreign minister said in a calm
tone that Brazil is a stronger country because of the protests, and that these
demonstrations are all part of the democratic process.
"Her government has lifted millions out of the poverty and joined the middle class, he said
of the administrations of Rousseff and former President Lula da Silva. "And its natural
that rising living conditions should give rise to higher expectations.
BBC Radio 4 (Reino Unido) Today (Entrevista/Embaixador
Roberto Jaguaribe)

BBC Roberto Jaguaribe is the Brazils Ambassador to the Uk. Good morning. Whats
happening?

Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe Good morning.

BBC Whats happening?

Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe Well, its difficult. We have to hear their message and we
have to try to understand. The social media has become a very important form of
communication and of manifestation, and of getting people together, especially young
people, and they have created new modes of political participation. We in Brazil believe
that this is very healthy, we believe it shows an intent of participating in the democratic
process in Brazil. So, in spite of some occasional rioting, the protests have been very
interesting and helpful, and I think that it is something that we have to understand better
and to be able to comply and reply to their demands.

BBC You say you are looking forward to understanding it better. It is confusing, isnt it?
Because on the face of it, Brazil has, number one, lifted an awful lot of people out of
poverty in the last ten years, and has very low youth unemployment. But also, number
two, there is a generalized sense that the country has been doing well. Where do you think
it went wrong?

Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe Well, I dont think it is really going wrong. I think it is
going in a way in which more people are fully participating in Brazils political life. I mean,
the major transformation of Brazil over the past years has not been economic growth, it
has been social integration. It has been transforming marginalized people into more and
more citizenship. It has been the creation of 60 million new bank accounts, besides the
incorporation of many new people into the middle class and lifting people out of extreme
poverty. So, the incorporation as full citzenships generates new demands, which are very
reasonable and expected.

BBC Thats interesting, isnt it? Because someone in that piece was saying. she drew a
distinction between access to consumption and access to citizenship. And thats quite a
telling one.

Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe My perception is exactly in the same line, but I would say
that citizenship is a psychosocial perception. Brazils poor were used to be perceived as
marginalized. Now, because of a process of incorporation, and because of many other
factors, they perceive that they are more part of the country, that they are more owners of
the country. And they generate demands because of that.

BBC Interesting lessons there for other countries. The Chinese must be watching what is
happening on the streets of Rio with some interest.

4
Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe Well, I am sure other countries, all countries in fact, are
watching. I think it is a learning process for everybody, and certainly for us in Brazil. That
is something that we have to cope with and understand better. In fact, we have to be able
to receive their messages. The message is diffuse, as you have seen, but I think it is
important to hear what they have to say. And it is important to bring people more actively
into political participation and full democratic life, something which sometimes seems to be
dormant, and. the establishment deals with it in a different process.

BBC Yes, because there has been some violence. Tear gas was used, rubber bullets were
used, some complaints about a tough crackdown. It is a difficult one, isnt it? Because they
might not be able to behave now as they were used to behaving in the past.
Embaixador Roberto Jaguaribe Well, I think that when you have large agglomerations,
and you have seen that this is not localized in a single city, although it has started in one, it
has spread trough Brazil. When you have many thousands of people going to the streets,
you are bound to have a number of, let's say, irresponsible behavior. The police has been
very very aware in other to do two things: first of all, protect the peaceful manifestations;
and avoid that they become more riotous and looting, which has occurred. It is a delicate
behavior for the police.

BBC Roberto Jaguaribe, thank you very much.
The New York Times (EUA) Brazil s Leftist Ruling Party, Born of
Protests, Is Perplexed by Revolt
By SIMON ROMERO
The protests were heating up on the streets of Brazils largest city last week, but the
mayor was not in his office. He was not even in the city. He had left for Paris to try to land
the 2020 Worlds Fair - exactly the kind of expensive, international mega-event that
demonstrators nationwide have scorned.
A week later, the mayor, Fernando Haddad, 50, was holed up in his apartment as scores of
protesters rallied outside and others smashed the windows of his office building, furious
that he had refused to meet with them, much less yield to their demand to revoke a
contentious bus fare increase.
How such a rising star in the leftist governing party, someone whose name is often
mentioned as a future presidential contender, so badly misread the national mood reflects
the disconnect between a growing segment of the population and a government that prides
itself on popular policies aimed at lifting millions out of poverty.
After rising to prominence on the backs of huge protests to usher in democratic leadership,
the governing Workers Party now finds itself perplexed by the revolt in its midst, watching
with dismay as political corruption, bad public services and the governments focus on
lifting Brazils international stature through events like the 2014 World Cup and the 2016
Olympics inspire outrage.
On Wednesday, tens of thousands protested outside the newly built stadium where Brazil
faced off against Mexico in the Confederations Cup, as the police tried to disperse them
with tear gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray. In what would normally be a moment of
unbridled national pride, demonstrators held up placards demanding schools and hospitals
at the "FIFA standard, challenging the money Brazil is spending on the World Cup instead
of on health care or the poorly financed public schools.
With support for the protests escalating - a new poll by Datafolha found that 77 percent of
So Paulo residents approved of them this week, compared with 55 percent the week
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before - Mayor Haddad and Geraldo Alckmin, the governor from an opposition party,
bowed on Wednesday night, announcing that they would cancel the bus and subway fare
increases after all. Other cities, including Rio de Janeiro, pledged to do the same.
But while the fare increases might have been the spark that incited the protests, they
unleashed a much broader wave of frustration against politicians from an array of parties
that the government has openly acknowledged it did not see coming.
"It would be a presumption to think that we understand what is happening, Gilberto
Carvalho, a top aide to President Dilma Rousseff, told senators on Tuesday. "We need to
be aware of the complexity of what is occurring.
The swell of anger is a stunning change from the giddy celebrations that occurred in 2007,
when Brazil was chosen by soccers governing body to host the World Cup. At the time,
dozens of climbers scaled Rio de Janeiros Sugar Loaf Mountain, from which they hung an
enormous jersey with the words "The 2014 World Cup is Ours.
"We are a civilized nation, a nation that is going through an excellent phase, and we have
got everything prepared to receive adequately the honor to organize an excellent World
Cup, Ricardo Teixeira, then the president of the Brazilian Football Confederation, said at
the time.
Since then, the sentiment surrounding Brazils preparations for the World Cup, and much
else overseen by the government, has shifted. Mr. Teixeira himself resigned last year, under
a cloud of corruption allegations, and while the Brazilian government says it is spending
about $12 billion on preparing for the World Cup, most of the stadiums are over budget,
according to the governments own audits court.
The sheen that once clung to the Workers Party has also been tarnished by a vast vote-
buying scheme called the mensalo, or big monthly allowance, in a nod to the regular
payments some lawmakers received. The scandal resulted in the recent conviction of
several of high-ranking officials, including a party president and a chief of staff for Luiz
Incio Lula da Silva, who was a popular Brazilian president.
"Theres been a democratic explosion on the streets, said Marcos Nobre, a professor at the
University of Campinas. "The Workers Party thinks it represents all of the progressive
elements in the country, but theyve been power now for a decade. Theyve done a lot, but
theyre now the establishment.
The economic growth that once propelled Brazils global ambitions has slowed
considerably, and inflation, a scourge for decades until the mid-1990s, has re-emerged as a
worry for many Brazilians.
But expectations among Brazilians remain high, thanks in large part to the governments
own success at diminishing inequality and raising living standards for millions over the last
decade. The number of university students doubled from 2000 to 2011, according to
Marcelo Ridenti, a prominent sociologist.
"This generates huge changes in society, including changes in expectations among young
people, he said. "They expect to get not only jobs, but good jobs.
Unemployment is still at historical lows - partly because of the very stadiums and other
construction projects that have become the source of such ire among some protesters. But
well-paying jobs remain out of reach for many college graduates, who see a sharp
difference between their prospects and those of political leaders.
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"I think our politicians get too much money, said Amanda Marques, 23, a student,
referring not to graft but to their salaries.
Earlier this year, Mr. Alckmin, the governor, announced that he was giving himself and
thousands of other public employees a raise of more than 10 percent; his own salary
should climb to about $10,000 a month as a result. High salaries for certain public
employees have long been a festering source of resentment in Brazil, with some officials
earning well more than counterparts in rich industrialized nations.
Both Mr. Alckmin and Mr. Haddad followed the protests together in Paris last week on their
smartphones. But at the time, Mr. Alckmin dismissed the protests as the equivalent to a
routine strike by air traffic controllers in Paris, something "that happens.
"What has to be done is be strong and stand firm to avoid excesses, he told reporters
then, before the protests had spread on the streets of So Paulo and dozens of other cities
across Brazil.
By this week, it was clear how thoroughly officials had miscalculated. At one point on
Tuesday night, protesters tried to break into the Municipal Theater, where operagoers were
watching Stravinskys "Rakes Progress. The doors to the elegant theater remained shut
and as the show went on, they spray-painted the outside of the recently renovated
structure with the words "Set Fire to the Bourgeoisie.
William Neuman contributed reporting from So Paulo; and Andrew Downie from Recife.
Clarn (Argentina) Triunfan las movilizaciones: Ro y San Pablo
bajan las tarifas
Por Eleonora Gosman
Las fuertes protestas quebraron la decisin de los gobiernos estaduales. Las marchas
haban estallado por el aumento del pasaje de mnibus. Y se extendieron a otras
reivindicaciones sociales.
San Pablo. Corresponsal
El intendente de San Pablo, Fernando Haddad, y el gobernador paulista, Geraldo Alckmin,
anunciaron ayer una vuelta atrs en el reajuste aplicado hace diez das, que llev el pasaje
en el transporte pblico de 3 a 3,20 reales. "El aumento ser derogado dijeron en una
conferencia de prensa ofrecida en forma conjunta. En Ro de Janeiro tomaron la misma
decisin. Fue luego de que por la maana de ayer, y desde muy temprano, las protestas se
extendieron a la periferia de esta ciudad. Los barrios paulistas comenzaron a rebelarse, en
sintona con las manifestaciones ocurridas los ltimos das en el centro de la ciudad.
"Milagros ocurren cuando la gente va a la lucha, rezaba un cartel exhibido por esos
manifestantes. Fueron los vecinos movilizados por el Movimiento Periferia Activa y los del
Movimiento de Trabajadores Sin Techo (MTST). Y no slo en los barrios pobres y ms
alejados del centro paulistano fueron a las calles a protestar. Tambin hubo marchas en
municipios del clebre ABCD paulista, que en los aos 80 fuera la cuna del Partido de los
Trabajadores fundado por el ex presidente Lula da Silva.
Fue el despertar movilizador de este cordn industrial lo que convenci al gobernador
Alckmin de la necesidad de una rpida accin oficial para frenar el incendio ciudadano.
Hubo tambin fuertes presiones desde el Palacio del Planalto, en Brasilia, para que las
autoridades de San Pablo y Ro de Janeiro procedieran a calmar un movimiento de masas
juveniles cada vez ms enardecido.
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En el nimo de las autoridades paulistas y cariocas pesaron, adems, escenas de
descontrol vividas el martes por la noche en las dos grandes ciudades. A los gritos de
"romper, romper es mejor que manifestar, grupos de muchachos con el torso desnudo y
los rostros cubiertos saquearon negocios de telefona celular e informtica en el centro de
San Pablo. Quisieron tambin entrar en el edificio de la intendencia, pero al no lograr el
cometido comenzaron a tirar objetos incendiados a travs de las rejas del predio. Hasta un
vehculo del canal de TV Rede Record sufri la bronca juvenil.
Es difcil pronosticar si este retroceso de las autoridades en San Pablo y Ro de Janeiro ir
realmente a aplacar a las masas juveniles.
En principio, con la victoria de ayer, podra pensarse que se cumpli una de las grandes
aspiraciones de los manifestantes. Segn una encuesta de la consultora Datafolha, 67% de
los que salieron a las calles dicen que fue por el reajuste del pasaje.
Sin embargo, 35% argument que se movilizaban sobre todo contra los polticos y la
corrupcin.
Vale recordar que en las manifestaciones cntricas, tanto en San Pablo como en Ro de
Janeiro, Porto Alegre y Brasilia, abundaron los carteles con la consigna: "No son slo 20
centavos en alusin al aumento practicado hace 15 das. Entre las otras demandas del
movimiento juvenil figuraron, tambin, ms salud y educacin, una demanda difusa de
mayores derechos y un freno a la corrupcin.
En otras ciudades brasileas, como es el caso de Fortaleza, lo que moviliz a los brasileos
fue el enojo con los gastos que ha demandado la organizacin de la Copa de
Confederaciones y la Copa del Mundo del ao prximo (ver "Choques...) Segn
estimaciones del propio gobierno federal, ambos acontecimientos deportivos van a insumir
14.000 millones de dlares. Muchos brasileos entienden que ese cuantioso caudal de
dinero podra haberse aplicado a una mejora sustancial de la educacin y la salud, un
mbito en que los gobiernos, desde el central hasta los provinciales y municipales, tienen
una gran deuda pendiente.
En Brasil, hay antecedentes de grandes marchas que resultaron victoriosas. En los aos
80 hubo movilizaciones en todo el pas en reclamo de elecciones presidenciales directas. La
consigna de entoces era: "Directas ya. Finalmente fue una reivindicacin atendida en
1989. Otra gran explosin ocurri en 1992, cuando los jvenes se lanzaron a las calles para
exigir el juicio poltico a Fernando Collor de Mello. Aquella gran movida termin con la
salida del ex presidente. Pero esta movilizacin tiene grandes diferencias con sus
antecesoras. Es muy espontnea y las convocatorias no proceden de partidos polticos o de
organizaciones sociales sino de las redes sociales que comunican horizontalmente a travs
de internet.
Les Echos (Frana) Au Brsil , la rvolte fait tache dhuile et
cible des politiques dsempars
Thierry Ogier Correspondant So Paulo
Le mouvement lanc par les jeunes contre la vie chre gagne les banlieues populaires.
Les organisateurs des manifestations, tout comme les politiques, semblent dbords.
Excusez le drangement. Nous sommes en train de changer notre pays. Cest en
demandant littralement pardon que certains manifestants brandissent leurs banderoles
dans les rues du Brsil. Une manire polie dalimenter la rvolte, qui sest vite rpandue
travers le pays. A lorigine, une revendication des jeunes contre laugmentation du prix des
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transports en commun dans les grandes villes. De manire inattendue, la revendication du
mouvement Passe livre (transport gratuit) a provoqu une vritable dflagration aux
quatre coins du Brsil. De So Paulo, le mouvement sest tendu aux autres grands
centres urbains et a gagn depuis hier les banlieues populaires.
Mais les jeunes leaders des manifestations, davantage adeptes de Facebook et de Twitter
que des grandes assembles gnrales pour encadrer les militants, ont rapidement t
dpasss. Aprs lattaque en rgle contre lassemble lgislative de Rio lundi, des casseurs
se sont livrs des scnes de pillage dans le centre de So Paulo et ont tent de pntrer
de force dans la mairie de So Paulo mardi soir.
Lula la rescousse
Toutefois, le maire, Fernando Haddad, avait dj quitt les lieux. Direction : runion
durgence laroport avec Lula, lancien prsident, qui fait figure de conseiller en chef des
gouvernants actuels, et son successeur, Dilma Rousseff, venue de Brasilia aprs avoir
dclar quil fallait couter la voix de la rue . Une vritable cellule de crise improvise.
Lula se montre dj proccup par ce divorce entre les jeunes et son parti des travailleurs
(PT), au pouvoir depuis 2003. De surcrot, la popularit de Dilma Rousseff commence
accuser une baisse sensible, selon plusieurs sondages, mme si elle demeure leve. De
son ct, Fernando Haddad prfre rester ferme. Il sest refus hier revenir sur
laugmentation (de 6%) du tarif des bus, dcrte au dbut du mois.
La classe politique, cible privilgie des manifestants, qui sinsurgent ple-mle contre la
corruption et les dpenses engages avant la coupe du monde de football, a du mal
trouver des rponses des demandes aussi diffuses. Lobjectif nest pas de renverser le
gouvernement, mais de rclamer des amliorations [dans les services publics], note
lconomiste brsilien Marcelo Salomon de Barclays Capital, New York. Le gouvernement
prend peu peu la mesure de ces manifestations, mais il doit encore comprendre le motif
qui a conduit un tel soulvement lheure actuelle, alors que le taux de chmage reste
faible. Le secrtaire gnral de la prsidence, Gilberto Carvalho, nhsite pas tirer la
sonnette dalarme. Ce proche de Lula, charg des liens avec la socit civile, estime que le
mouvement est lgitime. Nous devons le comprendre, sinon, nous serons balays par
le cours de lhistoire, assure-t-il.
Hier, les manifestations ont commenc trs tt la priphrie de So Paulo, les agents de
la circulation se sont mis en grve et plusieurs routes ont t coupes. Des affrontements
entre manifestants et forces de lordre ont eu lieu Fortaleza, dans le Nordeste, quelques
heures avant un match de lquipe de football du Brsil (contre le Mexique) dans le cadre
de la Coupe des confdrations.
La Tribune (Frana) Pourquoi le Brsil s'enflamme
Depuis le week-end dernier, le Brsil est touch par de grandes manifestations ayant attir
dans les rues plus de 200 000 personnes. Lundi, des chauffoures ont clat Rio entre
les manifestants et la police. Les Brsiliens protestent contre l'augmentation du prix des
tickets de transports en commun et le cot de l'organisation de la Coupe du monde de
football, qui se droulera dans le pays en 2014. Si le Brsil affiche encore des taux de
chmage extrmement bas, la croissance de la septime puissance conomique mondiale
faiblit depuis trois ans.
Des images des rues de Rio Janeiro en flammes, des policiers aspergeant les manifestants
avec des bombes lacrymognes, des casseurs s'attaquant aux forces de l'ordre... Le Brsil
est sorti de son calme. Lundi, plus de 200 000 personnes sont descendues dans les rues de
ce pays o les manifestations restent encore rares. La fronde, dbute le week-end dernier,
s'est radicalise. Des chauffoures ont clat Rio faisant une trentaine de blesss.
Depuis samedi, les Brsiliens protestent contre la hausse du prix des tickets des transports
en commun. En pleine Coupe des fdrations de football, ils ont galement voulu dnoncer
9
le cot des dpenses publiques engranges pour financer l'organisation de la Coupe du
monde de football, qui aura lieu dans le pays en 2014.
Devant l'ampleur des manifestations, le ministre des Sports a rpliqu : "Nous ne
permettrons pas que des manifestations perturbent les vnements que nous nous
sommes engags raliser". Quelques heures plus tard, la prsident Dilma Rousseff
(Parti des travailleurs) a prfr jouer la carte de l'apaisement : "Les manifestations
pacifiques sont lgitimes et propres la dmocratie". Surnomme la "rvolte du vinaigre"
sur les rseaux sociaux, le mouvement devait se poursuivre aujourd'hui. Alors pourquoi les
jeunes brsiliens sont-ils donc descendus dans la rue ?
Les jeunes veulent profiter de la croissance
Rio, So Paulo, Brasilia... Les manifestations ont touch les mtropoles abritant les grands
ples universitaires. Des milliers d'tudiants se sont mobiliss suite aux multiples appels
manifester lancs sur les rseaux sociaux. "Ce sont les jeunes de la classe moyenne
duque qui sont descendus dans la rue. Ils veulent enfin profiter de la croissance ", dcrit
Julien Vercueil, spcialiste de l'conomie des BRICS (Brsil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique
du Sud) et auteur de Pays mergents: Brsil, Russie, Inde, Chine... Mutations
conomiques et nouveaux dfis. La croissance ? Elle ne reprsentait pourtant que 0,9% du
PIB en 2012, bien loin des chiffres affichs par la Chine (7,8%) ou l'Inde (4%). "En Asie, la
productivit horaire est plus comptitive. Il ne faut pas se focaliser sur ce taux de
croissance. Le pays reste en bonne sant conomique, notamment grce ses
exportations de matires premires. Mais la jeunesse n'a pas l'impression d'en profiter",
rsume Julien Vercueil. La croissance connat tout de mme une forte baisse puisqu'elle
s'levait 2,7% du PIB en 2011 et 7,5% en 2010.
La menace de l'inflation
Le Brsil dispose d'une monnaie trs forte compare aux autres pays mergeants (1 real
quivaut environs 0,34 euros). "Leur monnaie est survalue l'chelle mondiale",
estime Julien Vercueil. La Banque centrale brsilienne est donc intervenue pour faire
baisser le real de 40% face au dollar et redonner ainsi de la comptitivit l'industrie. Une
tactique qui a augment les exportations, mais aussi le prix des produits imports.
L'an pass, l'inflation a progress de 5,84%. Les prix ont t tirs la hausse par les
mdicaments (+0,9%), les vtements (+0,8%) et le logement (+0,7%). Le 30 mai, la
Banque centrale du Brsil a relev son taux d'intrt directeur de 0,5 point 8%, pour
tenter de freiner l'inflation. Reste savoir si et quand les effets se feront ressentir.
De l'argent pour la sant et l'ducation
Les manifestations ont dbut samedi So Paulo, une ville de 11 millions d'habitants o
le rseau de transports en commun est vtuste et restreint. Le 2 juin dernier, le prix des
tickets de mtro et de bus y a augment de 20 centimes de reals, passant ainsi de 3 3,20
reals. "La somme peut paratre modique, mais cette augmentation est l'lement
dclencheur d'un mcontentement de plus en plus prgnant chez les classes moyennes.
Elles ne comprennent pas que l'argent public serve construire des grands stades de
football, qui seront peu rentables au final. Elles souhaiteraient plutt qu'on amliore enfin
leurs conditions de vie, notamment dans les secteurs de la sant et de l'ducation", note
Julien Vercueil.
Si le chmage est relativement bas (5,5%), le Brsil reste un des pays les plus
ingalitaires au monde et la corruption des classes politiques trs leve. Le cot de la
Coupe du monde valu 15 milliards de dollars sera en partie financ par les 200 millions
d'habitants du plus grand pays d'Amrique latine. Les Brsiliens comptent parmi les
contribuables payant le plus d'impts au monde.
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The Guardian (Reino Unido) Sepp Blatter urges Brazil
protesters not to link grievances to football
Jonathan Watts
Fifa president Sepp Blatter has called on Brazil's protesters to stop linking their
demonstrations to football, as police stepped up reinforcements ahead of expected clashes
at Confederations Cup matches taking place in Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza.
After protests on the fringes of earlier games, boos during official speeches in the stadiums
and placards on the streets condemning Fifa, the head of the world football body said the
tournament a dry run for next year's World Cup was being wrongly targeted.
"I can understand that people are not happy, but they should not use football to make their
demands heard," Blatter said on Globo TV, a domestic station.
His appeal looks likely to fall on deaf ears. Protesters on Wednesday blocked the road to
the stadium in Fortaleza, where Brazil were due to play against Mexico. Police turned back
hundreds of cars.
There is also a Twitter and Facebook campaign for spectators inside the ground to turn
their backs when the national anthem is played.
Several of Brazil's national team players have also expressed their support for the
demonstrators.
"I see these demonstrators and I know that they are right," the midfielder Hulk told a press
conference in Fortaleza.
"We know that Brazil needs to improve in many areas and must let the demonstrators
express themselves."
Brazil is in the midst of its biggest wave of protests in 20 years. Initially sparked by police
violence against small demonstrations against bus price rises, the protests have rapidly
expanded in size, range and motivations.
On Monday night, a quarter of a million people rallied in more than a dozen cities to
express a range of grievances, including dire public services, corruption and evictions.
Fifa's tournaments have become a focus for many demonstrators, who feel the 12 stadiums
that the country has built or renovated at huge cost show how public money is spent on
projects that benefit construction companies and TV stations rather than on hospital and
schools.
This argument has been eloquently expressed in English in a popular YouTube video titled
"No, I'm not going to the world cup" which has drawn more than 1.5m views.
The video's narrator, Carla Dauden, said: "Suddenly there is all this money available to
build new stadiums and the population is led to believe the World Cup is the change they
need for their lives to get better. But the truth is that most of the money from the games
and the stadiums goes straight to Fifa and we don't see it so we don't get it and the money
from tourists and investors goes to those who already have money."
The government says the $13.3bn spending on the tournaments is also being used to
improve roads, metro services, airports, communications and public security all of which
would help to boost the country's economic and social development.
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This point was emphasised by Blatter, who said Fifa did not impose the tournament on the
hosts. "Brazil asked to host the World Cup," Blatter said. "They knew that to host a good
World Cup they would naturally have to build stadiums.
"But we said that it was not just for the World Cup. Together with the stadiums there are
other constructions: highways, hotels, airports . Items that are for the future. Not just for
the World Cup."
He and Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff were booed by the crowd at the opening
ceremony of the Confederations Cup on Saturday.
This are unlikely to be the last insults they hear. The football tournament will run until 16
July.
The protests are expected to escalate with bigger rallies planned for Thursday. Despite
Blatter's appeal, it is unlikely the two will remain apart.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Pel tells Brazilians to `forget'
protests sweeping the country
Joe Leahy
Brazil's greatest footballer, Pel, one of the best players of all-time, has shocked Brazilians
by urging them to "forget" the protests sweeping the country and concentrate on cheering
for the national team.
His remarks came as a 2011 video of another of Brazil's all-time football stars, Ronaldo,
resurfaced on the internet in which he seemed to place a higher priority on building football
stadiums than improving the country's appalling public health system.
"Let's forget all of this mayhem that's happening in Brazil, all of these protests, and let's
remember that the national team is our country, our blood," Pel, the official ambassador
of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, urged viewers of TV Tribuna de Santos, a local television
station.
The remarks by the former player, known as the "King of Football", has appalled Brazilians,
who have turned out in their hundreds of thousands to support the country's biggest street
protests in nearly a generation.
"Pel is not conscious of what's happening in the country," said Romrio, another former
Brazilian soccer champion who is now a federal congressman.
The comments also threw a spotlight on the increasing politicisation of football in a country
in which the sport is a national obsession.
The protests initially involved a small group of students but following a violent police
response they have widened to become a national movement with public support stretching
across socioeconomic classes.
The protests have targeted corruption and wastage by the nation's politicians, particularly
the country's extravagant investment in two mega sporting events, the World Cup to be
held next year and the Olympics in 2016.
Brazilians are angry that the government is investing billions of dollars in the stadiums for
the events but has so far failed to deliver significant improvements in public transport,
airports and roads.
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Brazilians struggle on a daily basis with traffic congestion, poor health facilities and
deteriorating public security the country's media is full of horror stories about carjacking
and muggings, such as that of one man in So Paulo this month who was set alight by
robbers angry that he only had R$100 in his pocket.
In his video, Ronaldo said Brazil had to prioritise spending on stadiums if it was to host the
World Cup. "You can't hold the World Cup with hospitals," he said.
Following an outcry over his comments, Pel later said he supported peaceful protests and
was only trying to urge Brazilians to show more faith in the national squad, whose chances
of winning next year's World Cup are looking grim.
Ronaldo also said he supported the protests and that the video was made two years ago
during different times.
"I'm not responsible for the spending of public money and I reject corruption," he said. "I
feel pride when I see peaceful and democratic protests throughout the country."
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Brazil 's protests (Editorial)
Everyone is struggling to understand Brazil's occasionally violent street protests, the
country's biggest in two decades.
Although sparked by a 20 cent increase in bus fares, they are not, at heart, about
economic issues: incomes and employment remain high. Nor are they political, a tropical
version of the Arab spring or Turkish protests. President Dilma Rousseff remains popular,
for now.
Rather they have formed out of a leaderless social movement, fed by Twitter and Facebook,
that expresses a diffuse set of grievances, from corruption and public mis-spending to the
cost of living. This is also in tune with a perhaps more worrying investor zeitgeist: one
which suggests the Brazilian model may have reached its limit.
Brazil has enjoyed a spectacular 10-year run of economic growth, thanks to the
commodity boom and steroid-like injections of consumer credit. Some 30m people, who
have risen out of poverty as a result, can now buy consumer goods like never before. But
social changes elsewhere have not kept up with the demands of this newly entitled, if still
precarious, middle class. The result is a disconnect: between the bad old' Brazil that
Brazilians are told they have left behind, and the glorious new one the government says
they live in.
For example, cultivating Brazil's global image by spending $12bn on football stadiums for
the 2014 World Cup is all very well. But not when life for the majority is so hard. They pay
developed world taxes for still shoddy developing world public services. Overcrowded buses
and thick traffic make the daily commute an expensive and time-consuming grind.
Government corruption is rife. The disconnect is especially large when it comes to
unreformed institutions, such as the police. Their thuggery against protesters really set
national indignation alight.
This disquiet that "new Brazil" may be little changed from the "old Brazil" is not unique.
All over South America, citizens are fed up with being told how good things are. In
prosperous Chile, it is over outrageous university bills and lack of social mobility. In more
revolutionary Argentina, it is over a government that is out of touch and riddled with
corruption but piously declares otherwise.
All these social protests cut across the political spectrum; no leader is immune. In many
ways, they are akin to growing concern in financial markets about emerging markets as a
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whole. Both are warnings that the political salad days and easy money of the past decade
may be drawing to a close.
The Times (Reino Unido) Brazil 's Awakening (Editorial)
Quarter of a million people have taken to the streets of Brazil's largest cities in the past
two weeks. Bank windows have been smashed. In a few cases demonstrators have been
tear-gassed and attacked with pepper spray. In many more they have protested angrily but
peacefully about rising livings costs, poor public services and debilitating corruption. In
short, Brazilian democracy has never looked more vibrant.
The immediate cause of the protests that have produced images from So Paulo so similar
to those of the unrest in Istanbul was a rise in the price of bus fares at the beginning of the
month. With a restrained police response the demonstrations might not have spread.
Instead, poorly trained military police turned violent last week and sympathy protests
broke out from Brasilia to Rio de Janeiro.
The movement has acquired a name (the Salad Revolution, because of the vinegar used by
protesters against the tear gas), an impressive social media presence and a lengthening
list of grievances. Chief among these is the 1 billion so far spent on football stadiums for
the 2014 World Cup in a country that ranks 85th on the UN's human development index.
It would be callous to make light of the deep social problems that have turned Brazil's
streets into such an unfamiliar carnival of anxiety. Despite a decade of heavy spending on
food programmes, millions still go hungry every day. Police corruption is endemic. Drug-
related crime remains a scourge of the favelas and the main justification for a fortress
mentality isolating the country's political and business elites.
Yet the underlying trends are far more positive. A decade of growth has lifted an estimated
40 million Brazilians out of poverty. Income inequality, though still severe, has narrowed in
each of the past 14 years. Brazil was the first developing economy to return to growth
after the financial crisis and even though that growth has since stagnated, youth
unemployment is at a record low.
The result is the emergence of a middle class that only now has found the confidence to
demand a new deal from its government. It certainly deserves one: Brazilians pay more
tax than the citizens of any other major emerging economy and are rightly dissatisfied with
the schools, hospitals and public transport provided in return.
It now falls to President Dilma Roussef to respond appropriately. She has made a
creditable start. Unlike Turkey's embattled Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, she has
welcomed the demonstrations as "proof of the energy of our democracy". Unlike Mr
Erdogan, who turned his back on Turkey's protesters for a defiant tour of North Africa, Ms
Roussef has called her Vice President back from a foreign trip and ordered Brazil's military
police to avoid confrontation at all costs.
They have heeded her instructions and participants say some protests have even turned
festive. But the kumbaya moment will not last. Ms Roussef has months, not years, to show
concrete progress in delivering 21st-century public services as well as football stadiums.
Brazil is committed to hosting the World Cup and the next Olympics. These will bring
prestige but also scrutiny, with the potential to benefit the protesters more than they
acknowledge. Already, hard as it may be for them to admit, many Brazilians have never
had it so good.
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El Pas (Espanha) La primera victoria de los 20 cntimos
(Opino/Juan Arias)
Si es cierto que menos es ms, la primera victoria real de la protesta callejera brasilea ha
empezado por lo ms pequeo: la suspensin de los 20 cntimos de aumento de los
transportes en So Paulo y en Ro de Janeiro.
Un menos que tiene un enorme valor simblico, porque haba sido la mecha que hizo
prender el fuego. Tanto, que trajo de cabeza estos das a las autoridades de Brasil,
temerosas de ceder a una protesta sin lderes que podra ponerlos de rodillas ante los
gritos de la calle.
Primero aseguraron que no era posible volver atrs. Despus, que el Congreso deba
aprobar una ley para exonerar de no s qu impuestos. Al final, la rendicin.
Ganaron los 20 cntimos. La protesta forjar ahora un camino para que todas las dems
ciudades sigan el ejemplo, aunque es solo el primer paso. Una pancarta deca ayer: "Pas
desarrollado no es aquel donde los pobres tienen coche, sino donde los ricos usan los
transportes pblicos.
Ahora exigirn la calidad de los medios de transportes, la seguridad de los que los usan, la
puntualidad de sus horarios y el respeto a la dignidad de los ciudadanos que los emplean,
ya que a veces parecen transportar ganado y no personas.
Varios expertos en movimientos de masas estn afirmando que las reivindicaciones de un
movimiento de protesta sin nombre, ambulante, con un rosario de exigencias en sus
manos, va a seguir y est llamado a crecer.
Llegarn otras peticiones, que irn desde lo que los pobres sin seguro privado sufren en los
hospitales o la precariedad de las escuelas pblicas al cncer de la impunidad que solo
lleva a la crcel y con rapidez a los ciudadanos de a pie y deja libres a los que les sobra
nombre y poder para burlar la ley.
Ser importante ahora observar la reaccin de esas masas a su primera victoria, as como
la de los dirigentes polticos ante lo que algunos considerarn una debilidad.
Ni el movimiento podr querer acortar etapas ni embriagarse con su primera pequea gran
victoria, ni los administradores pblicos pueden ahora sentarse tranquilos a beber una
cerveza convencidos de que con ese regalo han saciado el hambre del monstruo.
Paradjicamente, esa victoria podra tanto fortalecer el movimiento como debilitarlo. Es un
banco de pruebas para los responsables polticos, que debern saber demostrar cundo
pueden y deben escuchar esas reivindicaciones y cundo no.
De ese difcil equilibrio del que camina por encima de un hilo tenso depender que lo que
an no tiene nombre como fenmeno de protesta, y que es tpicamente brasileo, sea
capaz o no de ofrecer algo nuevo e indito: si ser una nueva primavera o si todo acabar
en agua de borrajas en las que acaben ahogndose los pobres (y a la vez ricos) 20
cntimos de la discordia.
Le Monde (Frana) Lexplosion sociale au Brsil fragilise la
coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche (Blog Amrica
Latina)
Paulo Paranagua
15
A quinze mois de llection prsidentielle doctobre 2014, lexplosion sociale au Brsil
fragilise la coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche. Au pouvoir depuis 2003, cette
coalition est mene par le Parti des travailleurs (PT, gauche), la formation de lancien
prsident Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Tous les dirigeants politiques, de la majorit prsidentielle et de l'opposition, ont t pris de
court par lextension de la fronde, de So Paulo une douzaine de villes. La prsidente
Dilma Rousseff (PT) a ragi avec retard, mais avec sagesse, mardi 18 juin, contrairement
son ministre des sports, Aldo Rebelo (ministre de tutelle du Mondial de 2014).
Ce dernier est un cas dsespr : il appartient au Parti communiste du Brsil (PCdoB), qui
regroupe les anciens maostes et soutient la Core du Nord, et stait fait connatre en
voulant purger la langue portugaise de tous les mots dorigine trangre.
La responsabilit politique de la rpression disproportionne des manifestations incombe
la fois des lus de la majorit ( Brasilia) et de lopposition (Parti de la social-dmocratie
brsilienne, PSDB, So Paulo). La contestation est nanmoins une surprise douloureuse
pour le PT, qui croyait dtenir le monopole de la reprsentation politique des mouvements
sociaux.
La dception de la gauche
Une jeune blogueuse liste les motifs de dception de la gauche lgard du PT :
1) La corruption, une "tache pour un parti qui stait construit sur un discours thique". "Il
ny a pas eu dautocritique du PT, ni mme de rflexion densemble, juste des critiques aux
mdias et la Cour suprme."
2) Les droits de lhomme : la Commission parlementaire abandonne un pasteur
homophobe, ainsi que la premire raction face la rpression des manifestants. La
blogueuse aurait pu ajouter lattitude ambige de la diplomatie brsilienne.
3) La rforme agraire : lagrobusiness privilgi au dtriment des sans-terre.
4) Les droits LGBT sacrifis sur lautel des concessions aux vangliques : Le pouvoir a
rendu le PT craintif.
5) Les Indiens, trs minoritaires, mais forte porte symbolique.
La liste aurait pu aisment tre largie. Mais elle pourrait galement tre rsume ainsi : le
PT sest converti au rformisme, sans pour autant mettre en uvre des rformes dignes de
ce nom. Mme pas la rforme qui figurait en tte des revendications des syndicalistes
comme Lula sous la dictature militaire : labolition de l"impt syndical" (prlev sur le
salaire) et la rforme de la lgislation du travail copie de la Carta del lavoro de Mussolini
(le Brsilien Getulio Vargas et lArgentin Juan Peron avaient puis la mme source).
Fragmentation politique et polarisation
Traumatis par la scission de l'extrme gauche du PT provoque par la minirforme de la
Scurit sociale, en 2003, le prsident Lula a renonc tout changement en profondeur. Ni
rforme fiscale, ni rforme ducative, ni rforme politique.
Le Brsil compte 28 partis politiques, presque tous invertbrs, simples structures pour
capter les prbendes de lEtat. La moiti de ces formations est au gouvernement, lautre
moiti dans lopposition. Les deux camps ont form des alliances opportunistes, autour de
deux partis rformateurs, le PT et le PSDB, irrconciliables uniquement parce quils
partagent le mme terrain lectoral dorigine, So Paulo. A l'lection prsidentielle de 2010,
16
la candidate verte Marina Silva, qui avait cr la surprise en obtenant 20 millions de voix,
avait critiqu cette polarisation, qui verrouille le champ politique.
Lopposition na pas de projet alternatif. Et son principal candidat, Acio Neves, le
gouverneur PSDB du Minas Gerais, trane des casseroles : difficile dtre assidu des nuits
de Rio de Janeiro, sans prter le flanc une campagne de discrdit.
Peu de jours avant lexplosion sociale, le maire de So Paulo, Fernando Haddad (PT), et le
gouverneur de lEtat, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), faisaient cause commune Paris pour
revendiquer lorganisation de lExposition universelle de 2020 dans la capitale conomique
du Brsil. Ils voulaient prolonger ainsi le Mondial de 2014 et les Jeux olympiques de 2016,
censs acclrer la construction des infrastructures dont le pays manque cruellement. Cest
en quelque sorte toujours le "modle Brasilia", le dveloppement bas sur le btiment et
les travaux publics, plus lindustrie. Le BTP reste le noyau dur de la corruption politique.
Des candidatures dissidentes
La crise sociale et les goulets dtranglement de lconomie vont accentuer les tensions au
sein de la coalition gouvernementale, avec des candidatures dissidentes la prsidence et
dans les Etats fdrs. Deux noms se dtachent du lot :
Eduardo Campos, le gouverneur du Pernambouc, petit-fils de Miguel Arraes, grande figure
du Nordeste, est le champion du Parti socialiste brsilien (PSB), reprsent au
gouvernement.
Son handicap est son insuffisante notorit dans le Sud. Toutefois, son implantation au
Nordeste, un important rservoir de voix de Lula et de Dilma Rousseff, suffit susciter un
vent de panique Brasilia.
Marina Silva est davantage connue lchelle nationale. Elle avait russi une perce dans le
Sud en 2010, mais elle manque de structure organisationnelle. Ancienne ministre de
lenvironnement de Lula, elle est juste titre perue comme une dissidente de la coalition
au pouvoir.
Ces deux candidatures ont plus de chances quun ventuel reprsentant de lextrme
gauche qui voudrait prendre le relais des manifestations de la rue. En tout cas, elles
pourraient obliger Dilma Rousseff disputer un second tour de scrutin, avec les risques
que cela comporte.
Limmense popularit de la prsidente rsistera-t-elle lexplosion des mcontentements ?
Aura-t-elle la capacit de reprendre les choses en main ? Jusqu prsent, sur le plan
national comme ltranger, elle sest montre plus gestionnaire que politique ou
diplomate. La nouvelle classe moyenne, insatisfaite de la mdiocrit des services publics,
se tournera-t-elle vers dautres reprsentants ? En tout cas, la fronde a rendu le jeu
lectoral plus ouvert, sans quil soit possible de faire des pronostics.
CP!LA DO "#$%S&RIA
Le Monde (Frana) La Suisse et l'Autriche pourraient bientt
figurer sur la liste noire des paradis fiscaux
Lough Erne (Irlande du Nord) Envoye spciale
Paris s'apprte modifier les critres de constitution de cette liste publie chaque anne
17
La France s'apprte changer les critres qu'elle utilise pour constituer la liste noire des
paradis fiscaux qu'elle publie chaque anne. Demain, pourraient y figurer des pays comme
la Suisse ou l'Autriche.
Aujourd'hui, cette liste est tablie partir des pays qui ne cooprent pas assez lors de
demandes d'entraide pour des enqutes fiscales sur des contribuables franais. On y trouve
surtout des petits pays, comme Brunei, les les Marshall, Montserrat, Nauru, Niue, le
Botswana et le Guatemala. De ce point de vue, la liste noire version 2013 que s'apprte
publier Paris ne devrait pas encore marquer de rupture. Elle comprendra une dizaine de
noms, parmi lesquels sept Etats ou territoires dj fichs en 2012.
Les Philippines, qui figuraient aussi sur la liste noire de 2012, mais ont amlior depuis leur
convention fiscale avec la France, devraient se voir cette anne " blanchies ". Quant aux
autres pays pingls par la France, dont les noms ont t proposs par le ministre des
finances, ils sont encore l'arbitrage au ministre des affaires trangres. Le fichage sur
liste noire est une affaire dlicate mener sur le plan diplomatique. Il entrane des
sanctions fiscales, caractrises par un alourdissement des taxes sur tous les flux entrants
et sortants de ces pays. Une validation interministrielle est ncessaire.
Echange automatique
Selon nos sources, aucun grand pays ne devrait se retrouver sur la liste noire franaise de
2013, attendue dans quelques jours. Pas plus le Luxembourg que la Suisse ou l'Autriche,
pourtant points du doigt pour leur refus ou leur rticence mettre fin un secret bancaire
qui a fait leur prosprit.
Mais le soulagement que pourraient prouver ces places financires devrait tre de courte
dure... En effet, sitt cette liste 2013 publie, la France a l'intention, pour tenir compte
des volutions internationales, de durcir les critres qui servent valuer la qualit de la
coopration fiscale de ses partenaires. Et d'y ajouter ainsi le dsormais fameux critre
d'change automatique de donnes fiscales entre pays (sur les ouvertures de comptes, les
avoirs divers dtenus l'tranger par leurs ressortissants), que le G8 de Lough Erne des 17
et 18 juin en Irlande du Nord vient d'riger au rang de priorit, en raffirmant son rle-cl
pour la lutte contre la fraude fiscale...
Si ce critre tait en vigueur, la Suisse et l'Autriche, qui ne se sont pas encore engages
passer l'change automatique, se retrouveraient notamment sur la liste noire de la
France ! Une perspective dont aucun pays ne voudrait... Ce projet de durcissement de ton
vis--vis des paradis fiscaux est port par le ministre des finances, Pierre Moscovici. Celui-
ci entend prsenter un amendement en ce sens au projet de loi contre la fraude fiscale, en
cours d'examen au Parlement. C'est une initiative indite.
L'objectif du locataire de Bercy est de faire jouer la France un rle d'aiguillon, pour
acclrer le mouvement de bascule mondiale vers l'change automatique de donnes, un
mode de coopration jug bien plus efficace par l'Organisation de coopration et de
dveloppement conomiques (OCDE) que l'change la demande (en cas d'enqutes)
pratiqu aujourd'hui.
Grace l'effet dissuasif de la liste noire, Paris entend soutenir ce mouvement parti des
Etats-Unis avec la loi Fatca (une nouvelle loi amricaine extraterritoriale, par laquelle
Washington oblige le reste du monde faire de l'change automatique de donnes).
Pour ne pas figurer sur la liste noire de la France, ou en sortir, un Etat n'aura d'autre choix
que d'accepter l'change automatique. Dj, dix-sept pays s'y sont rallis, dont, en sus des
Etats-Unis, la France, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, l'Italie et l'Espagne.
Comme l'Union europenne, la France considre par ailleurs qu'elle est en droit d'obtenir
des autres pays autant que ce qu'ils accordent aux Etats-Unis travers la loi Fatca. "
L'amendement Moscovici " devrait tre appliqu ds 2016.
18
Anne Michel
Financial Times (Reino Unido) US and Russia find common
ground on Syrian conflict
Geoff Dyer
Frosty does not quite describe the looks on their faces. When Barack Obama met Vladimir
Putin this week, they attempted jokes about judo and basketball, but the body language
screamed of difficult, awkward conversations.
The two leaders spoke at length about Syria, where they are now lurching towards a new
proxy war. In a storyline that seems familiar, the Russians are supplying advanced
weaponry to the government, while the Central Intelligence Agency is organising an
operation to funnel arms to the parts of the opposition it hopes are "moderates".
At the G8 discussions on Syria, Mr Putin was only too happy to be seen standing up to the
western leaders pushing him to drop the Assad regime. Some observers in Washington fear
the emergence of a Russia-Iran axis in the Middle East. Stephen Cohen, the New York
University Russia expert, even warns of a "new cold war".
Certainly, at the rhetorical level, relations have gone from bad to worse in recent months.
Mr Putin seems never to tire of launching barbs at the US. In an interview last week, he
talked about "substantial ethnic cleansing" in the early history of the American republic,
discussed 20th-century racism and criticised the dropping of nuclear bombs on Japan.
The US Congress last year passed the Magnitsky Act, which placed sanctions on the
Russian officials accused of involvement in the death of whistleblower lawyer Sergei
Magnitsky.
Behind the scenes, however, there are signs of a more workmanlike relationship. US
officials say Russia has been co-operative with the war effort in Afghanistan and over Iran's
nuclear programme. The two governments signed an agreement on Monday to set up a
channel about cybersecurity incidents that threaten national security the sort of cyber
"hot line" Washington has been trying without success to establish with China.
One senior US official goes so far as to say that "we really do not have any substantial
clash in interests".
Even with the emerging proxy war in Syria, the two governments are coming to think
about the conflict in similar ways
At first, US and Russian attitudes divided into predictable positions Moscow wanted to
block any outside interference, while Washington saw a protest movement calling for
political reform that was brutally suppressed.
Yet as the conflict has become more complex, more areas of common ground have opened
up.
Russia has not backed away from its support for the Assad regime, but the break-up of the
country into ethnic enclaves is not in Moscow's interests.
The Obama administration has also shifted, from hoping that the Assad regime would fall,
to being much more concerned about the possible fragmentation of the country. It is also
unclear which group the US now dislikes more the Assad regime or the al-Qaeda
sympathisers within the opposition. Even though many observers believe it is already too
late, both governments say they are trying to preserve Syria as a unitary state.
19
As a result, America's strategy is still squarely focused on Moscow, even as it starts to
wade deeper into the conflict on the opposing side.
In the run-up to the Obama-Putin meetings this week, US officials delivered assurances to
Moscow that its interests in the Middle East would be preserved, including its port access to
the Mediterranean, and that it could have a large role in the process of choosing a post-
Assad leadership.
Arming the rebels does not immediately change the underlying approach. The US is not
providing the sorts of weapons that would give the opposition a chance of winning the war.
By sticking with light arms, the US appears intent, instead, on trying to halt the
momentum of the government forces. A stalemate, so the argument goes, would lead
Russia to press the Assad regime to enter genuine negotiations.
Mr Obama and Mr Putin are likely to have many more frosty meetings in the coming years.
But the US president is still betting heavily that he can work with the Russians.
The Guardian (Reino Unido) Syria crisis needs political solution,
David Cameron tells MPs
Patrick Wintour
David Cameron has said he will not recklessly take Britain into a military escalation in
Syria, putting his strongest emphasis yet on a political solution to the crisis as he came
under pressure from his own backbenchers and Labour not to supply weapons to the Syrian
rebels.
Cameron was reporting back to the Commons from the G8 summit in Loch Erne on Syria
and agreements to attack corporate tax evasion, which he claimed were now "written into
the DNA of future G8 summits for many years to come".
In exchanges lasting nearly 90 minutes, Cameron rejected a role for Iran at a Syrian peace
conference and refused to rule out providing arms to the rebels before that peace
conference.
But he told MPs: "There is no military victory to be won and all our efforts must be focused
on the ultimate goal of a political solution.
"We will not take any major actions without first coming to this House, but we cannot
simply ignore this continuing slaughter."
He added that there was a danger in Britain accepting the argument put forward by the
Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that the only alternatives to his rule were extremism
and terrorism.
He acknowledged there were extremists in the Syrian opposition, saying they posed a
threat to the west, but he said the west should stand for democracy and freedom.
He said the immediate task in Syria was for the Americans and Russians to sort out the
delegations that would attend the peace conference. He again insisted Assad could have no
future role, and said the summit had managed to persuade Russia not to draw back from
its support for a transitional government with full executive powers.
The G8 summit communique made no mention of Assad's future role, due to
disagreements between the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the west, but Britain
20
privately believes he is not totally committed to Assad and instead wants to ensure that
Syria does not become an ungoverned space.
The prime minister claimed the G8 summit had made progress on Syria by reaffirming its
commitment to a peace conference and by requiring Assad to give UN weapons inspectors
unrestricted access to establish the facts on the use of chemical weapons by regime forces
or anyone else.
Cameron rejected Iran's involvement, saying the country had never accepted the principle
of a transitional government in Syria, and adding that he wanted to limit the conference to
key players within Syria.
Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, claimed the summit had failed to achieve Cameron's stated
objective of providing "a moment of clarity".
Labour's former Northern Ireland secretary Peter Hain urged Cameron not to set
preconditions about Assad's involvement. "In a search for a political solution, can I just
caution him in his apparent insistence on a precondition. Northern Ireland shows
preconditions do not work," Hain said.
"We both share exactly the same view of the hideous nature of Assad's barbarism, but if
you're insisting that he can't come to the conference and that he can't play any subsequent
role, I just caution him that this conference may never happen."
The prime minister told MPs that 30 jurisdictions had now signed agreements on an
automatic exchange of information over tax evasion. He claimed Britain's overseas
territories and Crown dependencies had made decisions that would realise an extra 1bn in
revenues for the Treasury. He also claimed that every member of the G8 had committed to
action plans that would introduce central registries on benefical ownership.
"This agenda has now, I believe, been written into the DNA of the G8 and G20 summits, I
hope for many years to come," he said.
Asked if Britain backed public registries of companies' beneficial ownership, or registries
open only to tax authorities, he said: "There are strong arguments for it to be public."
But he added: "The point at which one says one's own registry will be public, one gives up
rather a lot of leverage over other countries we might want to encourage to do that at the
same time".
He also said: "It is important to take the business community that believes in responsible
behaviour with us on this journey of greater transparency and fairness. To be fair, the CBI
has been supportive of this agenda, so there is nothing to fear from a consultation where
we try to take people with us on this important progress."
But he insisted he had managed to make the issue of corporate taxation a mainstream
issue on the agenda of future G8 meetings.
"Frankly, tax transparency and beneficial ownership were academic issues that were
discussed in lofty academic circles, but they are now kitchen table issues that are being
discussed by the G8 leaders, who have pledged to take action on them".
El Pas (Espanha) Las conversaciones de Ginebra son clave
para Siria (Opinio/Javier Solana)
21
Un compromiso militar por parte de Occidente provocar una escalada mayor de todas las
partes implicadas.
Se ha tardado casi un ao en desempolvar el comunicado de Ginebra sobre Siria de junio
de 2012 y en conceder un nuevo intento a la diplomacia. El acuerdo del mes pasado entre
el secretario de Estado, John Kerry, y el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores de Rusia, Serguei
Lavrov, para poner en marcha un nuevo proceso poltico, Ginebra II, significa una
importante oportunidad. Una oportunidad que, sometida a una intensa presin, est ya
languideciendo.
Pero despus de dos aos de destruccin y de 80.000 muertes, y tras el anuncio de la Casa
Blanca del uso de armas qumicas por parte del rgimen de Al Asad, es precisamente esa
audaz y ambiciosa estrategia poltica, en vez de la accin militar, la que todava ofrece la
mejor y quiz la nica-oportunidad de evitar un sufrimiento, una radicalizacin y una
implosin regional an mayores.
Para tener xito, Occidente tiene que reforzar urgentemente su capacidad de maniobra
diplomtica y hacer del final del conflicto una prioridad, por encima de ambiciones polticas
ms amplias. Lo que llevar implcita una real bsqueda de acuerdos para asegurarse de
que todos los actores principales, internacionales y regionales, tengan una participacin
suficiente en el proceso para poder respaldarlo plenamente, y as presionar a sus aliados
en Siria para que hagan lo mismo. Ser preciso llegar a compromisos desagradables, en
particular el de aceptar que el destino de Bachar el Asad sea ms un asunto a tratar que
una condicin previa al proceso de transicin y que Irn tiene que desempear un papel en
cualquier proceso diplomtico al respecto. En beneficio de los intereses de Siria, de los de
toda la regin y de la seguridad occidental, ese debera ser ahora el imperativo estratgico.
Las voces de Occidente en favor de una solucin militar, ya se trate del establecimiento de
zonas de exclusin area, del suministro directo de armas a los rebeldes sirios o de
operaciones militares contra objetivos gubernamentales, se han hecho cada vez ms
insistentes. Se argumenta que ese ser el nico modo de inclinar la balanza contra Asad y
de obligarle o bien a hacer concesiones significativas, o bien a la capitulacin.
La reciente decisin de Rusia de proporcionar al rgimen nuevos misiles antiareos y cazas
MIG ha sido una predecible respuesta al final del embargo de armas por parte de Europa y
al creciente apoyo de crculos gubernamentales franceses y britnicos a un suministro de
armamento a los rebeldes.
En vez de garantizar un espacio humanitario y de impulsar una transicin poltica, un
compromiso militar en Siria por parte de Occidente probablemente provocar una mayor
escalada de todas las partes implicadas. La entrada de Hezbol en el conflicto rompe la
balanza a favor de uno de los bandos (el del rgimen), profundizando y agravando la
guerra civil. La idea de que Occidente puede dotar de poder y controlar a distancia a las
fuerzas moderadas es, en el mejor de los casos, optimista. La escalada engendra escalada,
y la paulatina expansin de la misin es un resultado predecible si Occidente emprende la
senda militar.
La oposicin siria y sus partidarios en la regin interpretarn el apoyo militar occidental
como la seal de que funciona su ya vieja estrategia de atraer a Occidente para alcanzar
una victoria total, con la consecuencia de que se vern menos inclinados an a involucrarse
polticamente y abandonar el maximalismo.
En ese contexto, ha llegado el momento de un verdadero y hasta ahora no probado-
impulso poltico por parte de los actores occidentales. Mientras se sostenga el argumento
de que la oposicin primero necesita fortalecerse, nunca habr un momento ideal de
cambiar del camino de luchar al de hablar, y mientras tanto la devastacin contina.
22
Esa es la razn por la que participar en Ginebra II y hacer que funcione aunque sea
gradualmente y al principio de forma titubeante-tiene que convertirse en el primer asunto
que abordar. Como sostiene un reciente informe del Consejo Europeo para las Relaciones
Exteriores: Siria. El imperativo de poner freno a la escalada, el consenso internacional es
un absoluto prerrequisito para atraer a las partes enfrentadas hacia un espacio en el que
las negociaciones polticas puedan imponerse. De tal manera que no puede haber
condiciones previas en las conversaciones y todas las partes tienen que ser invitadas a la
mesa, incluido Irn si tambin se va a presionar a Asad. Ese informe sugiere que la agenda
para Ginebra II debera derivarse del comunicado de Ginebra acordado hace ya un ao, y
centrarse en una transicin poltica pactada, preservando la integridad territorial de Siria, el
acceso a la asistencia humanitaria y aplacar la violencia y una mayor militarizacin.
A los aliados de Occidente en el Golfo y Turqua, que respaldan a la oposicin, solamente se
les convencer si norteamericanos y europeos abogan por una inequvoca opcin por
Ginebra II, en vez de cubrirse diversificando sus apuestas. El presidente Obama necesitar
comprometerse personalmente con Ginebra II y hacer de ello una prioridad en su reunin
con el presidente Vladimir Putin en el marco del G-8 a finales de este mes.
Un acuerdo internacional marcara un decisivo retorno a la escena de la poltica. Mientras
nadie espera que el conflicto termine pronto Siria est demasiado polarizada e inundada
de armas-un genuino compromiso internacional a favor del desarrollo de un proceso
poltico marcara un cambio de trayectoria. Dada la creciente dependencia poltica, militar y
financiera de apoyos externos por las dos partes, la presin internacional conjunta que
incite a ambas a un acuerdo de reparto del poder representa la mejor estrategia para que
finalmente se pueda poner trmino a la lucha. Supondr dar un paso decisivo hacia el
enfriamiento de las ambiciones absolutistas de las partes enfrentadas, aumentando el
incentivo para hacer un trato, especialmente a medida que se implanta la fatiga por el
conflicto.
Dado el ciclo de intensificacin en curso, avivado por los anuncios de nuevas provisiones de
armamento, las restricciones acerca de qu pases pueden tomar parte en las
conversaciones, y las precondiciones deseadas, Ginebra II est ya contra las cuerdas.
Estados Unidos y Europa necesitan actuar urgentemente para invertir esa tendencia. La
triste alternativa es la de una escalada respaldada internacionalmente que puede dejar a
Siria y a la regin en un estado de ruina permanente, cuyo desbordamiento tendra
probablemente unos efectos mucho ms prximos a nosotros.
ESTADOS !NIDOS%DESARMAMENTO N!CLEAR
The New York Times (EUA) Obama Readying Emissions Limits
on Power Plants (Capa)
By JOHN M. BRODER
President Obama is preparing regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from existing
power plants, senior officials said Wednesday. The move would be the most consequential
climate policy step he could take and one likely to provoke legal challenges from
Republicans and some industries.
Electric power plants are the largest single source of global warming pollution in the
country, responsible for nearly 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. With sweeping
climate legislation effectively dead in Congress, the decision on existing power plants -
which a 2007 Supreme Court decision gave to the executive branch - has been among the
most closely watched of Mr. Obamas second term.
23
The administration has already begun steps to restrict climate-altering emissions from any
newly built power plants, but imposing carbon standards on the existing utility fleet would
be vastly more costly and contentious.
The president is preparing to move soon because rules as complex as those applying to
power plants can take years to complete. Experts say that if Mr. Obama hopes to have a
new set of greenhouse gas standards for utilities in place before he leaves office he needs
to begin before the end of this year.
Heather Zichal, the White House coordinator for energy and climate change, said
Wednesday that the president would announce climate policy initiatives in coming weeks.
Another official said a presidential address outlining the new policy, which will also include
new initiatives on renewable power and energy efficiency, could come as early as next
week.
Ms. Zichal said none of the initiatives being considered by the administration required
legislative action or new financing from Congress.
In a speech in Berlin on Wednesday, Mr. Obama echoed his assertive talk on climate policy
since his re-election, talk that some climate advocates have criticized as going beyond his
actions. He said the United States and the world had a moral imperative to take "bold
action to slow the warming of the planet.
"The grim alternative affects all nations - more severe storms, more famine and floods,
new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise, Mr. Obama said. "This is
the global threat of our time.
He added, "We have to get to work.
Republicans criticize Mr. Obamas climate policy as government overreach that is holding
back the economy. Some Democrats, including those hawkish about climate action, also
worry that tough new standards on power plants could slow job growth and raise energy
costs, particularly in places like the industrial Midwest that depend on cheap power from
coal.
But administration officials signaled that Mr. Obama had decided the risks from climate
change outweighed the potential economic and political costs from taking steps to address
it.
"He is serious about making it a second-term priority, Ms. Zichal said at a forum
Wednesday in Washington sponsored by The New Republic magazine. "He knows this is a
legacy issue.
Ms. Zichal suggested that a central part of the administrations approach to dealing with
climate change would be to use the authority given to the Environmental Protection Agency
to address climate-altering pollutants from power plants under the Clean Air Act.
"The E.P.A. has been working very hard on rules that focus specifically on greenhouse
gases from the coal sector, she said. "Theyre doing a lot of important work in that space.
She did not specifically mention standards for existing power plants, but other senior
officials have said in recent days that Mr. Obama has decided to start work on such
regulations.
A 2007 Supreme Court decision gave the E.P.A. authority to regulate greenhouse gases,
and it has already done so for vehicles. Environmental advocates said that addressing
power plant pollution must be the centerpiece of any serious climate policy.
24
"To paraphrase Joe Biden, this is a big deal, said Daniel F. Becker, director of the Safe
Climate Campaign, an advocacy organization. "Nothing he can do will cut greenhouse
gases more.
Last year, the E.P.A. proposed greenhouse gas regulations for new power plants that would
essentially ban the construction of any additional coal-fired plants. The administration was
required to complete that regulation by mid-April, but it missed the deadline in a sign of
the pitfalls of such complex rule making. The E.P.A. has not said when it expects to
complete the rules.
The timing of the new policy on existing power plants is driven in large part by the
timetables the Clean Air Act sets for a major rule-making. The law requires the agency to
publish proposed guidelines. States are then required to submit plans for meeting the
guidelines, which the agency must review and which the public must be allowed time to
comment on.
"All of that takes time, and were in a race against time, said Vickie Patton, general
counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund.
Regulation of existing power plants is further complicated by the pending nomination of
Gina McCarthy to become E.P.A. administrator. Ms. McCarthy has for the past four years
run the agencys office responsible for enforcing the Clean Air Act.
Senate Republicans are holding up her nomination over unrelated issues. Republicans and
industry leaders also worry about her intentions on power plant regulation. In a carefully
worded statement, she told committee members during her confirmation proceedings that
the agency "is not currently developing any such regulations.
The administration has been quietly stitching together a suite of global warming policy
measures for the president to unveil this summer to make good on promises in his election
night acceptance speech, his second Inaugural address and his State of the Union address.
Denis McDonough, the White House chief of staff, and his deputy, Rob Nabors, have
regularly met with cabinet secretaries and their deputies to adapt to a changing climate
and to propose new measures that do not require Congressional action.
Mr. Obamas coming speech is also expected to highlight measures that the Department of
Energy can take to make appliances and industrial equipment more efficient and to reduce
the energy wasted in public and private buildings.
Le Figaro (Frana) Le faible cho de la doctrine antinuclaire
Laure Mandeville
DEPUIS le dbut de sa prsidence, Barack Obama na cess dvoquer son rve dun
monde dbarrass de latome militaire. Lors de son premier mandat, il a pass beaucoup
de temps sur le dsarmement nuclaire, persuad quen rduisant ses propres arsenaux
stratgiques, de pair avec Moscou, lAmrique serait en meilleure position pour mener la
bataille de la non-prolifration face lIran ou la Core du Nord.
Cest la raison pour laquelle le prsident amricain a centr lessentiel de sa relation avec la
Russie sur la signature dun nouveau trait Start introduisant le plafond stratgique de 1
500 ttes de missiles et 800 lanceurs (terrestres, ariens ou sous-marins) en 2010, accord
ratifi par le Congrs au terme dun vif dbat. Obama a organis la mme anne
Washington un grand sommet sur la scurit nuclaire, arrachant aux participants une
promesse de scurisation de leurs matires fissiles pour empcher armes de destruction
massives et matriaux sensibles de tomber entre les mains de terroristes.
25
Un acquis que le prsident entend consolider, a-t-il signifi ce mercredi dans son discours
la porte de Brandebourg, en appelant Moscou rduire nouveau dun tiers ses stocks
darmes nuclaires pour parvenir un arsenal de 1 000 ttes. Obama a aussi appel le
Snat amricain adopter le trait sur linterdiction des essais atomiques. La posture
nuclaire de lAdministration vise rduire le rle des armes nuclaires dans notre
stratgie de scurit , a affirm la Maison-Blanche mercredi, garantissant le maintien
dune force de dissuasion crdible .
Barack Obama court toutefois le risque dapparatre comme un doux rveur. Il navait pas
encore prononc son discours que Vladimir Poutine mettait dj ses doutes sur de
nouvelles rductions des arsenaux, soulignant, par la voix dun conseiller, que toute
conversation sur le sujet devrait impliquer les autres puissances nuclaires .
Loin dtre sduit par les appels dObama abandonner la mentalit de la guerre froide, le
prsident russe a not que son pays consacrerait une part importante de son budget
militaire la mise en place dun systme de dfense antiarienne et spatiale, pour
prvenir toute rupture de lquilibre stratgique , soulignant ses rserves sur le systme
de dfense antimissile mis en place par les tats-Unis et leurs allis europens.
On voit mal pourquoi Poutine accepterait aujourdhui de faire plaisir Obama, avec lequel il
vient davoir une altercation frontale sur le dossier syrien. Contrairement 2009, o le
redmarrage (reset) de la relation russo-amricaine avait du sens Moscou, Poutine voit
dsormais son homologue amricain comme un chef dtat renclant sengager
lextrieur et affaibli par la paralysie politique amricaine. Il est galement peu probable
que le Congrs accepte de voter le trait dinterdiction des essais nuclaires, vu les
oppositions rpublicaines.
Reste la question, cruciale, de lIran. Obama envoie-t-il un message Thran, dans
lespoir que la nouvelle configuration du pouvoir iranien ouvre une re de dialogue srieux
sur latome ? Il faut reconnatre que jusquici, ses efforts de dsarmement nont pas t
probants. Depuis son arrive aux affaires, la Core du Nord a men deux tirs dessais
nuclaires et lIran a construit 17 000 centrifugeuses. Le Pakistan sapprte dployer une
nouvelle gnration darmes nuclaires tactiques, que Washington craint de voir de tomber
aux mains de terroristes.
Reuters (Reino Unido) France to maintain nuclear arsenal after
Obama call
France is not ready to reduce its nuclear arsenal for now, Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le
Drian said on Thursday, a day after U.S. President Barack Obama offered to cut deployed
weapons as part of a global push to lower stockpiles.
Speaking in Berlin, Obama urged Russia to help build on the "New START" treaty that
requires both countries to cut stockpiles of deployed nuclear weapons to 1,550 each by
2018.
"Barack Obama is proposing to Russia that together they reduce. That's fine but that is not
how we see things," Le Drian told France Info radio, saying France had already narrowed
its arsenal to just under 300 warheads.
"The real issue is nuclear proliferation ... it's the future risk of Iran getting a nuclear
weapon," he added.
26
Moscow gave Obama's call for a cut in deployed arsenals of one third a frosty reaction,
saying it could not take such proposals seriously while Washington was beefing up its own
anti-missile defences.
Obama's vision of a "world without nuclear weapons" set out in a speech in Prague in 2009,
three months into his presidency, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. But his mixed results
so far have fuelled criticism that the prize may have been premature.
(Reporting by Emmanuel Jarry; writing by Mark John; editing by Catherine Bremer)
El Pas (Espanha) Rusia replica que el desarme debe incluir el
escudo antimisiles
PILAR BONET
Putin advierte de que no permitir "que se altere el equilibrio del sistema de contencin
nuclear".
Rusia no se toma en serio la propuesta de desarme nuclear del presidente Barak Obama en
tanto EEUU mantenga sus planes para desarrollar un escudo de defensa antimisiles. Mosc
vincula el desarme nuclear con el cese de este programa y, aunque est de acuerdo en la
necesidad de reducir los arsenales nucleares estratgicos, considera que los recortes deben
ser compartidos por todos los pases poseedores de armas atmicas.
En San Petersburgo, donde mantena una reunin dedicada a suministros blicos, el
presidente Vladmir Putin manifest que Rusia no permitir "que se altere el equilibrio del
sistema de contencin nuclear y que disminuya la eficacia nuestras fuerzas nucleares. Por
su parte, el asesor presidencial en poltica internacional, Yuri Ushakov, manifest que el
potencial nuclear debe reducirse no solo en Rusia y EEUU, sino tambin en otros pases con
armas nucleares.
Ms lejos en sus crticas fue el viceprimer ministro ruso, Dmitri Rogozin, segn el cual
Obama "o miente o "evidencia una profunda falta de profesionalidad. "Cmo se puede
desarrollar un sistema de defensa antimisiles, capaz de interceptar el potencial nuclear de
otro pas y plantear simultneamente una reduccin del potencial nuclear estratgico?,
inquiri Rogozin. El poltico seal que la instalacin de elementos de defensa antimisiles
en Polonia prevista para 2018 no concuerda con la versin oficial norteamericana sobre el
peligro representado por Irn.
EEUU y la OTAN no pueden hoy neutralizar totalmente el potencial nuclear ruso, dijo
Rogozin. "Pero qu pasar maana si nos desarmamos a la ligera, como lo hicieron ya en
poca de [Mijail] Gorbachov?, seal el viceprimer ministro. Es evidente que los dirigentes
rusos no pueden "tomar en serio la propuesta norteamericana, seal.
Diversos expertos militares rusos coinciden en su escepticismo sobre la posibilidad de que
Mosc reduzca su potencial nuclear, argumentando que las intenciones norteamericanas de
desplegar su defensa antimisiles obligan a Rusia a contrarrestar estos planes y exigen, por
lo tanto, un arsenal misilstico suficiente para penetrar el eventual escudo.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Obama in Berlin (Editorial)
The US and Russia are in the throes of a huge disagreement over how to tackle the civil
war in Syria. But in his speech at the Brandenburg gate in Berlin, President Barack Obama
declared that he still wants to do business with Vladimir Putin on another security issue
the need to reduce the size of their nuclear arsenals.
27
One of the foreign policy achievements of Mr Obama's first term was a treaty with Russia in
allowing each side a maximum of 1,550 strategic warheads. Mr Obama has now announced
that he wants to cut that by another third leaving each country with just over 1,000
weapons.
US-Russia arms control is a subject of limited interest to many people these days. The cold
war between Washington and Moscow is over. Military strategists are far more concerned
by tensions between the US and China, especially on cyber espionage. Even with 1,000
weapons each, the US and Russia would still have the capability to blow the world up many
times over. Still, the ambition spelt out by Mr Obama for more cuts in nuclear weapons
does matter for several reasons.
First, the US and Russia have 95 per cent of the world's nuclear weapons between them.
Unless they make further reductions in their arsenals, they will be unable to begin
persuading the world's seven other nuclear weapons states to cut their own smaller
arsenals. This matters, especially when we consider the alarming speed with which
Pakistan is amassing more and more nuclear warheads.
Secondly, by cutting its own arsenal, Washington is in a slightly better position to argue
that Iran and North Korea should stay out of the nuclear weapons game. In a week in
which a more moderate Iranian leader has been elected, the US president's statement that
he wants to reduce his own reliance on nuclear weapons even more helps to improve the
atmosphere ahead of a new round of talks with Iran.
Thirdly, it is good that Mr Obama and Mr Putin are not allowing differences on Syria to
obstruct progress elsewhere. We should not get ahead of ourselves, of course. We do not
know if Mr Putin will sign a new treaty on arms reductions or whether he will demand more
concessions from the US over its missile defence plans, a thorn in the Kremlin's side. But
the Berlin announcement signals that Mr Obama is trying to have a businesslike
relationship with Mr Putin even if differences over Syria remain intractable.
IR'
The Times (Reino Unido) Ease sanctions against Iran after
election of Hassan Rowhani, says Russia
Ben Hoyle, Hugh Tomlinson and Sheera Frenkel
Iran is ready to halt the most advanced stage of its nuclear programme, a sign of goodwill
that should persuade the West to relax sanctions against the country, Russia's Foreign
Minister said yesterday.
Sergei Lavrov said that "for the first time in many years" there are encouraging signs of
progress in the international stand-off over Iran's developing nuclear strength.
Speaking after the surprise election of Hassan Rowhani, the most moderate candidate in
the field, as President of Iran at the weekend, Mr Lavrov told a Kuwaiti news agency that
Tehran's willingness to suspend its enrichment of uranium to 20 per cent concentration is
an important development.
"This could be a breakthrough agreement and to a large extent remove the acuteness of
the existing problems," he said, adding that Mr Lavrov added that it would be "inexcusable
not to take advantage of this opportunity". He did not say which Iranian officials had
broached the offer or when they had made it but he added that "for the first time in many
years, hopeful signs have appeared in this process."
28
Russia has repeatedly championed an easing of sanctions in return for concessions from
Tehran and Mr Lavrov emphasised the importance of international negotiators taking
"substantial reciprocal steps."
"The international community should respond appropriately to the constructive moves by
the Iranian side, including step-by-step halting and cancellation of sanctions - unilateral
ones and those enacted by the UN Security Council," he said.
Russia is aligned with Iran in support of Bashar al-Assad's government in the Syrian
conflict, and still cultivates ties with Tehran, in contrast to the US and the European Union,
which have imposed unilateral sanctions of their own. Although the sanctions initially
targeted only the nuclear and defence industries their impact is now being felt by ordinary
Iranians.
The EU and the US were particularly concerned by Iran's admission that it was capable of
producing 20 per cent enriched uranium, which experts say could be turned into weapons-
grade uranium within months.
Mr Rowhani spent 16 years as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and
served as Iran's lead nuclear negotiator with the international community until he quit the
Council when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected President in 2005.
His first press conference as president-elect on Monday was notable for the change in tone
from Mr Ahmadinejad's habitual defiance.
While he insisted that Iran would not halt its uranium enrichment altogether, Mr Rowhani
did pledge "greater transparency" over the nuclear programme and added that "if we see
goodwill we can take some confidence-building measures".
Whether he will be able to fulfil this promise once he takes office is another matter. Iran's
key foreign policy priorities, including the nuclear programme and Syria, will remain under
the control of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader.
But the cleric is not immune to public opinion altogether and the election result has
signalled the Iranian people's weariness of the regime's unyielding defiance on the nuclear
issue, which has brought economic misery to millions of households.
Moreover, the election campaign exposed deep rifts among Khamenei loyalists over the
country's handling of its stand-off with the West.
During televised debates between the candidates, several men rounded on Saeed Jalili,
Iran's nuclear negotiator and a close ally of the Supreme Leader. Mr Jalili was castigated for
rejecting an offer earlier this year of modest sanctions relief in exchange for halting
uranium enrichment to 20 per cent.
Mr Jalili was for a long time seen as the frontrunner in the election race. But his campaign
slogan "Resistance" was rejected by voters and he eventually trailed in a distant third.
Attention will now turn to the team Mr Rowhani assembles around him in government,
particularly his choice of Foreign Minister. There is speculation that he may also seek to
replace Mr Jalili as Iran's representative at the negotiating table when talks with the West
resume in the autumn.
While the West and Russia were cautiously welcoming the possibilities offered by a Rowhani
presidency, some Israeli Cabinet ministers expressed concern.
29
"The election of Rowhani, the supposed moderate, was exactly what all those people who
don't want to do anything about the Iranian issue needed," said one Israeli Cabinet
minister, who described Mr Rowhani's election as a "harsh blow".
Meir Litvak, head of Iranian studies at Tel Aviv University, told Israel Army Radio that Mr
Rowhani's "smiley face to the West" might make it less likely that Israel would receive
support for a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) How the west can end the
nuclear stand-off with Tehran (Opinio/Ayatollah Seyed
Salman Safavi)
Hassan Rohani's victory in Iran's presidential elections has resurrected a spirit of hope in
the hearts of our people. It is a victory for moderation, intellectualism and good sense. The
new president will deliver the kind of all-inclusive government that Iran needs if a new
page is to be turned in relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the world.
This is, first, because the president-elect's approach to foreign policy will be one of
constructive co-operation with the aim of reducing tensions. Second, he is uniquely placed
to develop a win-win compromise regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions: Mr Rohani won a
landslide victory in the popular vote and he has the approval of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the
supreme leader.
If the west grasps this opportunity, the nuclear conflict can be settled peacefully, heralding
a new era of mutual co-operation between the two sides. A just peace in the Middle East
and Gulf can blossom. However, if the west does not comprehend the meaning of this
important opportunity, both sides will suffer and sink deeper into the quagmire of distrust
and confrontation.
Mr Rohani will seek the removal of the UN Security Council's sanctions as well as the
attainment of peaceful nuclear technology. As one who has for many years observed the
conflict between the west and Iran over the nuclear issue, and who wishes peace and
security for all, I advise the west to seize this new opportunity and not to repeat mistakes
of the past. Reaching a constructive compromise depends on five golden rules.
The first is recognition of the fact that although the political, economic and cyber warfare of
the west against Iran has inflicted harm and damage on the livelihood of the nation, it has
failed either to stop or to reduce the quality or quantity of the peaceful nuclear programme.
The second is that the main topic of discussion should be mechanisms for international
observation of Iran's peaceful nuclear programme to prevent any possibility of deviation
not limiting Iran's nuclear rights.
The third is that successful diplomacy, like business, is dependent on "equal value
exchange". As such, any compromise should be on the basis that concessions by Iran are
matched by concessions by the west.
The fourth is that the exchange should occur at the same time. It is natural that mutual
exchange occurs step by step; however, it should be "cash for cash". Any Iranian action
should be met by simultaneous western action. The west's policy of asking Iran for
something, in return for commitment to the lifting of sanctions at some time in the future,
is neither acceptable nor constructive.
Finally the west needs to learn that mutual trust is built through engagement and action.
Trust has become a scarce commodity in nuclear negotiations. The road to mutual trust is
travelled over time. It can be built and harvested only through actions, compromise and
30
considering the interests of all parties. Trust cannot be built through isolation, silence,
intimidation, sanctions, pressure and empty promises.
If the west had compromised with Mr Rohani when he was a nuclear negotiator under the
last reformist administration a decade ago, and had not made excessive demands, the
nuclear issue could have been settled by now. As a consequence, Mr Rohani would have
been president of Iran back in 2005.
Thus, the west should seize the new opportunity presented by the Iranian nation, and
should not repeat past mistakes, so that the discourse of "moderation and rationality" can
rule Iran's government and society for years to come.
The country of Mr Rohani's era, as the bridge of constructive co-operation between the
west and the Islamic world, can bring just and stable peace and security to the Middle East.
The goal of Iran is peaceful use of nuclear technology and Tehran will pursue its right to
that under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. According to the fatwa of the supreme
leader, the production, storage and use of nuclear weapons is forbidden and a sin against
God. The west must now understand the value of Mr Rohani's presidency if a realistic
solution to the conflict with Iran over its nuclear capabilities is to be achieved.
- The writer is an Iranian cleric who has served the leadership
ORIENTE M(DIO E NORTE DA )FRICA
Agncia EFE (Espanha) Ashton reafirma a Abs el apoyo de la
UE a esfuerzos para reactivar dilogo
EFE
El presidente palestino, Mahmud Abas, recibi hoy en Ramala a la alta representante de
Poltica Exterior y Seguridad Comn de la Unin Europea (UE), Catherine Ashton, en una
reunin en la que le inform de las ltimas conversaciones con EEUU dirigidas a reactivar el
proceso de paz.
"Durante la reunin, ambos discutieron los ltimos avances en el proceso de paz, y los
esfuerzos realizados por el Secretario de Estado de EEUU, John Kerry para reactivarlo",
inform la agencia oficial Wafa al concluir la reunin.
Abs, que poco antes haba recibido al vicepresidente de Brasil, Michel Temer, incidi en el
inters de los palestinos en el xito de los esfuerzos del secretario de Estado, para llegar a
"negociaciones serias" que conduzcan al fin de la ocupacin y al establecimiento de un
estado palestino independiente con Jerusaln como capital.
Tambin le asegur a Ashton su determinacin en trabajar para "crear las condiciones
adecuadas" que permitan el reinicio del dilogo, proceso en el que consider claves el cese
de la construccin en los asentamientos judos y la liberacin de presos palestinos.
La jefa de la diplomacia europea lleg esta tarde a la zona en una gira por varios pases de
la regin para conocer mejor la situacin y encontrar soluciones a los problemas ante la
falta de avances en el proceso de paz entre palestinos e israeles, la guerra civil en Siria y
la inestabilidad en otros estados.
Ashton, que esta noche se iba a reunir con la ministra israel de Justicia y jefa de
negociaciones, Tzipi Livni, confirm a Abs el apoyo de la UE a los esfuerzos de Kerry y
destac la firme postura de los Veintisiete.
31
Maana jueves, ltima jornada de su gira por Oriente Medio, Ashton se entrevistar en
Jerusaln con el primer ministro israel, Benjamn Netanyahu.
Despus se desplazar a la franja de Gaza, gobernada por el movimiento islamista Hams,
para visitar un colegio de la agencia de las Naciones Unidas para refugiados palestinos
(UNRWA, en sus siglas en ingls) junto a su mximo responsable, Filippo Grandi, y la sede
una asociacin local de sordomudos. EFE
Le Figaro (Frana) La nouvelle donne stratgique au Moyen-
Orient
Pierre Rousselin
En Syrie, en Turquie, en gypte ou en Iran, les vnements se succdent sans que les pays
occidentaux aient la capacit de les orienter. Il va falloir shabituer laisser les peuples du
Moyen-Orient construire eux-mmes leur propre destin, en se rsignant navoir quune
trs faible influence sur le cours de choses. Ce nest quen choisissant ses priorits avec
beaucoup de prcautions que lon pourra prserver des intrts de plus en plus menacs.
En Turquie, le premier ministre, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tourne ostensiblement le dos
lEurope en rprimant la contestation, au mpris de la Convention europenne des droits
de lhomme sans sattirer de condamnations, si ce nest de la part des dirigeants
allemands.
En gypte, le prsident islamiste Morsi sest dot des pleins pouvoirs pour faire adopter par
rfrendum une Constitution sa convenance et nomme Louqsor un gouverneur issu
dun groupe djihadiste, sans que cela suscite la moindre rprobation.
En Iran, les lections portent la prsidence un conservateur qui nest modr que
dans les espoirs des Occidentaux et qui a pour mission de donner un visage acceptable la
Rpublique islamique.
Mais cest le dbat sur lassistance apporter ou ne pas apporter linsurrection en Syrie
qui est lexemple le plus criant de limpuissance nouvelle de lOccident dans la rgion.
Mme si, aprs le recours par le rgime aux armes chimiques, Barack Obama promet
lopposition une aide militaire, le prsident des tats-Unis fera tout pour viter une nouvelle
aventure. Aprs les traumatismes de lIrak et de lAfghanistan et avec la perspective
nouvelle dune indpendance nergtique grce aux gaz de schiste, lAmrique ne
sengagera pas pleinement en Syrie ou ailleurs dans la rgion, l o ses intrts vitaux ne
sont plus en jeu. On peut le regretter, mais il faut en faire le constat et prendre la mesure
des consquences considrables que cela implique.
Ce constat, Vladimir Poutine la fait. Le G8 qui vient de se drouler en Irlande du Nord la
confirm. En soutenant Bachar el-Assad, il en profite pour pousser son avantage et
maintenir une prsence russe en Mditerrane afin de tirer parti du repli amricain.
Quant aux Europens, ils sont les premiers concerns. Ce qui se passe dans le monde
arabe les affecte bien plus que dautres puissances plus lointaines. Ils taient six
participer au G8. Mais aucun ne semble avoir tir les leons de la nouvelle donne
stratgique.
Sans les tats-Unis, leurs moyens militaires sont trs limits pour peser sur le cours de la
guerre en Syrie, et leurs moyens conomiques le sont tout autant pour favoriser une
volution du printemps arabe vers une transition dmocratique russie.
Les prcdents de la Libye et du Mali ont montr quune intervention militaire nest
possible, l o les tats-Unis ne sont pas directement concerns, que si les Europens
32
assument un rle cl. Il en serait de mme pour la Syrie, si Franais et Britanniques en
avaient la capacit. Mais, cette fois, ce nest pas le cas.
La leve de lembargo europen sur les armes destination de lopposition syrienne tait
cense faire pression sur le rgime. La manuvre ne peut russir, chacun voyant bien
quune mesure favorisant une victoire des islamistes radicaux ne constitue pas une
alternative viable. Si lassistance militaire aux insurgs syriens reste, en thorie, une
option, encore faut-il trs bien encadrer les destinataires des armes fournies. Cela
impliquerait une forte implication amricaine, une robuste coordination internationale.
Au Mali, la France a su fixer des priorits et adopter une stratgie cohrente. Au Moyen-
Orient, lexercice est bien plus dlicat.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Egypt's Morsi tries to shore up
popular support ahead of protest
Borzou Daragahi
Egypt's tourism minister on Wednesday submitted his resignation over the appointment of
a member of an Islamist group accused of launching a terrorist attack in an ancient temple
in Luxor to the governorship of the province.
Mohamed Morsi, Islamist president, named Adel al-Khayat, longtime Islamic group leader,
to the provincial post as part of what analysts describe as a series of controversial steps
meant to shore up popular support ahead of large anti-government protests expected on
June 30, the anniversary of Mr Morsi's election.
But the measures have affected the country's foreign policy, angered Egyptians in the
provinces and spooked investors, tourists and religious minorities. Many analysts say that
countering the June 30 protests appears to have become a policy priority at a time when
Egypt is under tremendous economic pressure.
"They have one issue on the agenda and it is essentially June 30," said Gamal Soltan, a
political scientist at the American University of Cairo. "They feel their support among the
Islamists is declining and they're certain they're losing the support of Egypt's urban
classes."
The build up to the protests began last month when young activists launched a movement
called Tamarrod, or Rebellion. It aimed to collect signatures demanding early presidential
elections to bring down Mr Morsi, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood group, which
has dominated Egypt since the uprising.
The campaign caught on quickly and the petition has gathered 15m signatures, stunning
political observers as well as campaign organisers. The drive will culminate in the June 30
protests in front of the presidential palace.
After initially ignoring the movement, the government has begun paying attention. A
sinking economy and a series of political missteps have damaged the popularity of Mr Morsi
and his government. A recent poll by Zogby Research Services showed that support for Mr
Morsi's government had dropped to 28 per cent, compared with a high of 57 per cent a
year ago.
In an attempt to win back support it has tried to foster nationalist sentiment over an
Ethiopian dam project that it said will reduce Egypt's access to Nile water, even threatening
military action against Addis Ababa. Egypt's foreign minister visited Ethiopia this week an
effort to ease tension.
33
Mr Morsi and his allies have also appealed to their political base by endorsing religiously
motivated Egyptians heading to fight in Syria's sectarian civil war, undermining the
government's own longstanding policy of peaceful resolution of the conflict and foreign
non-interference.
The president also ordered the immediate closure of the Syrian diplomatic office in Cairo,
stranding tens of thousands of recent refugees from Syria and longstanding residents
dependent on it for consular services.
"Just like any failing government, it starts to raise religious and sectarian sentiment, calling
for jihad and calling any protesters mainly Christians waging war on Islam," said Wael
Nawara, a co-founder of the liberal Ghad party and a political activist.
To further bolster his position, Mr Morsi has awarded a series of governorships to mostly
Islamist political allies, triggering protests in Daqahlia, Gharbiya, Damietta, Beheira and
Beni Suef provinces.
Most controversial was the appointment of Mr Khayat to the governorship of Luxor
province. Mr Khayat's organisation, Gamaa al-Islamiya, was accused of staging a 1997
attack on Hatshepsut temple that killed 62 people. Although the group has since renounced
violence, the appointment has outraged residents and triggered a resignation offer by
Hesham Zazou, the tourism minister, whose spokeswoman told the official Egyptian news
agency that he cannot work "as long as the new governor remains in his post, greatly
harming tourism in Egypt generally and in Luxor specifically".
After meeting with his conservative Islamist allies this week, Mr Morsi also entrusted the
Gamaa al-Islamiya with a counter-campaign to Tamarrod, named Tagarrod or impartiality.
"We are taking to the streets to make the people aware of the corrupt media that deludes
the people in telling them that Morsi has not accomplished anything," said Qaddafi Abdel-
Razak, spokesman for the movement
Many liberals and leftists voted for Mr Morsi a year ago, hoping he would govern from the
centre. Instead, say analysts, he appears to be moving deeper into the orbit of hardline
Islamists who remain the government's sole allies.
"Morsi is trying to consolidate his army," said Mr Nawara. "He's irrational and panicking and
he's trying to use all the tools he can to mobilise his brothers-in-arms."
- Additional reporting by Heba Saleh
MERCOS!L
ABC Color (Paraguai) El gran obstculo del Mercosur es
Argentina, aseguran en Brasil
La presidenta de la Confederacin Nacional de Agricultura de Brasil, senadora Katia Abreu,
dijo ayer que uno de los "grandes obstculos que afectan al Mercosur es de ndole poltico
y tiene como origen Argentina, un pas "extremadamente proteccionista. "Cmo vamos a
abrir el mercado si uno lo quiere cerrar y poner impuestos a las importaciones, sostuvo la
legisladora brasilea.
EFE
La industria agropecuaria brasilea pidi en la vspera en la capital belga avanzar hacia un
acuerdo bilateral ambicioso con la Unin Europea (UE) en lugar de hacerlo en el marco del
34
Mercosur, seal la presidenta de la Confederacin Nacional de Agricultura (CNA) de
Brasil, la senadora Katia Abreu.
La representante del sector agrcola brasileo asegur que estn "ansiosos por lograr un
acuerdo que sea "bueno para las dos partes, sea Brasil o Mercosur, que conforman
adems Argentina, Uruguay y Venezuela, mientras que Paraguay contina suspendido
desde hace casi un ao.
En cambio, reconoci que "hoy el Mercosur es un obstculo, y que sera necesario cambiar
algunas de sus prcticas para conseguir el acuerdo lo suficientemente amplio que pide la
industria agraria.
En referencia a Argentina, Abreu pidi "pragmatismo y "no impedir el trabajo de los otros
. En segundo lugar, consider que algunos sectores industriales se resistan al acuerdo ante
la competitividad de los europeos, aunque ahora cree que "las cosas estn mejorando y
que no hay razn para mantener un rechazo.
"Hay productos brasileos ms competitivos. Los consumidores piden fiabilidad, pero
tambin productos ms baratos , indic, y descart que las subvenciones a la agricultura
europea sean un problema principal en la negociacin.
Abreu inaugur ayer la primera oficina de la CNA en Bruselas con los objetivos principales
de consolidar y aumentar la cuota de mercado de los productos agrarios brasileos en la
UE y promover ms los acuerdos entre las dos partes en ese sector.
La senadora puso de relieve que los consumidores europeos buscan productos con un
precio razonable a la vez que de calidad, fiables y seguros, por lo que vio importante que
haya una representacin en Bruselas del sector brasileo.
La CNA, que est formada por 27 federaciones estatales y ms de 2.100 sindicatos, abri
ya una oficina en Pekn en noviembre pasado con la idea de disear una estrategia de
comercializacin que, con base en alianzas, lleve a los productos brasileos.
El Comercio (Equador) Ecuador solicit proceso de negociacin
para ser miembro de Mercosur
Ecuador ha solicitado formalmente a Mercosur el inicio de negociaciones para convertirse
en miembro pleno del bloque regional, seal el flamante ministro de Comercio Exterior,
Francisco Rivadeneira, a la agencia de noticias Andes.
"El presidente (Rafael Correa) nos ha instruido que quiere que avancemos en un proceso
de negociacin con Mercosur para ver la posibilidad de adherirse como miembro pleno.
Vamos a cumplir estrictamente las instrucciones del presidente y es ms, ya hemos
enviado una comunicacin estipulando lo que acabo de decir a la presidencia de Mercosur,
que ostenta actualmente Uruguay, dijo. Y aadi: "Hemos solicitado arrancar un proceso
de negociacin, si culmina este proceso de manera exitosa entonces pensaremos en la
decisin de ingresar como miembro pleno.
Rivadeneira fue nombrado como ministro de Comercio Exterior, una entidad que fuera
creada mediante Decreto Ejecutivo 25 y que tendr su sede en Guayaquil. Uno de sus retos
es concretar la negociacin de un acuerdo comercial entre Ecuador y la Unin Europea.
"Vamos a hacer todos los esfuerzos posibles para que el Ecuador pueda cerrar una
negociacin beneficiosa; en ese sentido, si todo sale bien vamos a viajar ahora en julio a
35
Bruselas para reanudar dilogos polticos y tcnicos para lograr un visto bueno de la Unin
Europea para un nuevo arranque de las negociaciones, seal a la misma agencia.
*ENE+!ELA
Le Figaro (Frana) Le prsident vnzulien reu discrtement
llyse
Ses opposants dplorent laccueil rserv par Franois Hollande Nicolas Maduro, dont la
victoire, le 14 avril, demeure conteste.
Patrick Ble
Franois Hollande a reu mercredi llyse Nicolas Maduro, le prsident vnzulien,
aprs un passage de ce dernier au Salon du Bourget. Dans une brve allocution la sortie
de la runion, le prsident franais a annonc quun accord de coopration entre les deux
pays serait sign dans les mois qui viennent.
Cette rception llyse est dautant plus surprenante que la France avait juste pris
note de llection de Nicolas Maduro, sans mconnatre la contestation de son lection.
Franois Hollande est le seul chef dtat dimportance avoir reu le prsident du
Venezuela qui, sil a obtenu une audience avec le pape Franois, avait rencontr les
prsidents italiens et portugais lors de cette premire tourne europenne en tant que chef
de ltat vnzulien.
Cette visite a choqu les reprsentants de lopposition vnzulienne Paris qui se sont
runis aux abords de llyse mercredi aprs-midi pour organiser un caserolazo : quelques
dizaines de manifestants sont venues avec leur casserole et leur cuillre pour gnrer le
maximum de bruits, comme de nombreux Vnzuliens lont fait dans les jours qui ont
suivi lannonce de la victoire de Nicolas Maduro le 14 avril dernier. Il est reu comme un
prsident lgitime mais la moiti au moins des Vnzuliens ne reconnat pas son lection
aprs le scrutin du 14 avril dernier , dplore Mercedes Viva, porte-parole Paris de la
Mesa de la Unidad (MUD) qui regroupe lopposition. Nicolas Maduro, hritier dsign par
Chavez, na devanc son adversaire de lopposition, Henrique Capriles, que de moins de
200 000 voix. Ce dernier a dpos un recours devant le Conseil national lectoral (CNE)
pour exiger un recompte des bulletins et un contrle des registres lectoraux.
Le vote au Venezuela est entirement lectronique et a t qualifi par linstitut Carter de
meilleur du monde . Cela nempche pas les fraudes. Le jour du scrutin, le vote assist
a t observ dans de nombreux bureaux et prouv par des vidos : un membre du
PSUV, le parti au pouvoir, vrifie par-dessus lpaule de llecteur quil coche la bonne case.
En cas de vote pour lopposition, il risque de perdre le bnfice des nombreuses aides de
ltat qui ont permis damliorer la situation des populations dans les quartiers pauvres,
notamment en termes de sant, dducation et dalimentation. Plus grave : lensemble des
ressources de ltat ont t mises au service du candidat officiel pendant la campagne. Les
nombreux mdias officiels se sont refus retransmettre les meetings de Capriles. Seul
Globovision suivait le candidat de lopposition.
Si le Conseil national lectoral a valid llection et refus de rviser lensemble des
registres lectoraux, le Tribunal suprme de justice, en majorit chaviste, na toujours pas
rendu son avis sur la validit du scrutin alors quil aurait d le faire depuis plus dune
semaine. Nicolas Maduro vient chercher ltranger une lgitimit quil na pas au niveau
national, dplore Juan Caycedo, opposant vnzulien vivant Paris. Le rgime de Maduro
exerce une pression jamais vue sur la socit vnzulienne. Des journalistes sont
poursuivis, le seul canal de lopposition, Globovision, a t rachet juste aprs llection par
des chavistes et aujourdhui la ligne ditoriale a totalement chang. Le journaliste Leocenis
36
Garcia, directeur du groupe de presse Sexto Poder, a t arrt pendant plusieurs jours car
il protestait contre le fait quon lempchait de racheter une chane de tlvision...
ABC Color (Paraguai) Informe de misin europea sostiene que
la eleccin de Maduro es nula
Una misin europea que sigui los ltimos comicios presidenciales de Venezuela seal que
la eleccin de Nicols Maduro como mandatario es nula por un "vicio de nulidad que afecta
a todo el proceso electoral, ya que entonces el candidato era vicepresidente, lo cual lo
inhabilitaba.
Una publicacin del diario El Nacional de Venezuela refiere que la interpretacin de la Sala
Constitucional de los artculos 229 y 232 que permiti la postulacin de Maduro a la
presidencia fue errnea, pues el vicepresidente no est habilitado para ser candidato, lo
cual constituye "un vicio de nulidad que afecta a todo el proceso electoral, sostuvo la ONG
espaola Instituto de Altos Estudios Europeos (IAEE).
"El TSJ no solo fuerza la Constitucin, al convertirlo en presidente sin cumplir los requisitos
constitucionales, legales y procedimentales sino que olvida los artculos 57 y 58 de la LOPE
(Ley Orgnica de Procesos Electorales) y 128 del Reglamento Electoral, que sealan que
todo funcionario pblico debe separarse del cargo para postularse a eleccin popular. La
interpretacin resulta forzada e incluso sospechosa de una conducta prevaricadora, seala
el informe citado por el diario venezolano.
"Maduro no cumple con los requisitos del artculo 227 de la Constitucin, puesto que
contraviene el 229. Esta situacin constituye un vicio de nulidad que afecta a todo el
proceso, hacindolo nulo de pleno derecho, y la Sala Constitucional del TSJ habra incurrido
en la conducta tipificada en el artculo 25 de la Constitucin que ha jurado defender y
garantizar (.).
Todo acto que viole los derechos constitucionales son nulos y los funcionarios que los
ordenen o ejecuten incurren en responsabilidad penal, civil y administrativa, agrega.
"En las ltimas decisiones del TSJ se constata una muy preocupante permeabilidad a la
voluntad del Ejecutivo y del partido que le mantiene. Una situacin as pone en peligro y en
serias dudas la necesaria neutralidad y objetividad exigible a este rgano en un sistema
democrtico, asevera el documento.
El reporte de prensa cita otras de las irregularidades detectadas por la misin, entre las
que cita:
"Inseguridad jurdica e inquietud ciudadana sobre el origen de la candidatura de Maduro,
su eleccin o las respuestas contradictorias sobre aceptar una auditora.
Afn de conservar el poder "a toda costa y mantener el legado de Chvez constituye una
violacin de las normas y aumentar "la sospecha de una suspensin del estado de
derecho.
"Las instituciones del Estado han perdido neutralidad, vulneran la garanta del ejercicio
libre y sano de los derechos y las obligaciones ciudadanas, dejan indefensa a la ciudadana
y sin razn de ser a la democracia.
"Actores polticos siguen volcados en enfrentamientos y no en debates que garanticen
lneas estables.
37
La negativa del CNE de propiciar una auditora completa ha generado ataques y "dudas
con respeto a su imparcialidad.
The Miami Herald (EUA) Carter will irk both sides in Venezuela
(Opinio/Andres Oppenheimer)
When I interviewed former President Jimmy Carter on a wide range of issues a few days
ago, I was especially interested in his views about Venezuelas 2-month-old political crisis.
In the past, Carter, whose Carter Center is known among other things for its international
election monitoring missions, has drawn the fury of Venezuelan oppositionists by giving his
blessing to several elections that were officially won by Hugo Chvez, the late president
and former coup plotter.
Would Carter now approve of the results of Venezuelas April 14 elections, which according
to the pro-government National Electoral Council were won by Chvez protg Nicols
Maduro? Would he give some credence to opposition leader Henrique Capriles claims that
the election had been stolen from him?
The Venezuelan government did not allow independent international election observers for
the elections. It only allowed electoral tourists from friendly regional groups who arrived
shortly before the voting.
(There is a big difference: while international observing missions monitor the entire
election process over months, including how much television time candidates are given
during the campaign, the visiting teams invited by Venezuela only observed the voting
itself.)
After the elections, Venezuelas electoral commission announced that Maduro had won by
1.5 percent of the vote.
Capriles denounced widespread irregularities, including outdated tallies that allowed
multiple voting by government sympathizers, and said that if fraudulent votes were
nullified, he would be declared the winner by 400,000 votes.
Asked during the interview, which is to be aired on CNN en Espaol on Sunday, whether
Venezuelas election process was clean, Carter asserted that "the voting part of it was
"free and fair.
"Venezuela probably has the most excellent voting system that I have ever known, Carter
said, referring to the touch-screen voting machines and the paper ballots that are used
there.
"So far as I know, Maduro did get 1.5 percent more votes than his opponent, Capriles, and
that has been substantiated by the recount of paper ballots.
But Carter added that Venezuelas electoral commission "has not yet fully addressed
several questions raised by Capriles concerning the accuracy of voters lists, intimidation of
voters, questionable use of fingerprinting machines and other irregularities.
"My own belief is that the Central Electoral Commission should go ahead and investigate
Capriles allegations, to see if they are justified or not, Carter said.
"In the meantime, of course, Maduro is assumed to be the president, pending a final
decision.
38
He added, "I dont know what the final result will be, but I do wish that Maduro would
reach out to the other 50 percent, roughly, of the people in Venezuela and say, `You are
part of my administration, of my government.
Asked whether the overall election rules were fair, Carter said that Maduro had more
campaign funds and enjoyed a "tremendous advantage in television time during the
campaign. Maduro followed Chvezs practice of "mandating that television stations "follow
his long speeches when his opponents are deprived of that right, he said.
He added that Venezuelas elections badly need public financing for all candidates
campaigns, and that "the equalization of access to public and private radio and television
would be a very good step in the right direction.
My opinion: I have to confess that I have a soft spot for President Carter. When I was a
student opposing the right-wing dictatorship in my native Argentina in the 1970s, he was
the first U.S. president who sided with pro-democracy activists and human rights victims,
rather than with oppressive governments.
But Im intrigued by his failure in recent years to be equally supportive of pro-democracy
activists and victims of government abuses in Venezuela and countries where presidents,
once elected democratically, usurp near absolute powers and hold questionable elections.
Is it fair to call "the voting part of an election "free and fair, when the oppositions claims
of irregularities have not been fully investigated? Is it fair to separate the "voting part of
an election from the entire electoral process, when a president has a more than 10-1
advantage in television time? And if the election was clean, why didnt Venezuela allow
credible international election observers?
To his credit, Carter is requesting an investigation into Capriles complaints, and that
Maduro reach out to the opposition.
I would only suggest to him that if he says that "the voting part was "free and fair, he
should also say in equally explicit terms that the entire electoral process was one-sided and
unfair.
AM(RICA LATINA E CARIBE
Clarn (Argentina) Timerman ratifica el planteo de solucin
pacfica por Malvinas
Por Ana Barn
El dato saliente este ao es cmo impactar el referndum en los miembros del tribunal.
Washington. Corresponsal
El Comit de Descolonizacin de la ONU se rene hoy en Nueva York para analizar el
reclamo de la Argentina por la soberana de las Islas Malvinas como lo viene haciendo
desde 1965.
Este ao, sin embargo, el dato a tener en cuenta ser el impacto del referndum realizado
en las islas este ao: el 99% de los malvinenses se pronunci a favor de seguir bajo el
dominio britnico. La pregunta es si esto tendr impacto entre los miembros del Comit o
si por el contrario se adoptar por consenso -como sucede siempre- la resolucin llamando
a que la Argentina y Gran Bretaa a sentarse a negociar una solucin al conflicto de forma
pacifica.
39
Segn contaron a esta corresponsal los peticionantes de los isleos que participarn en la
sesin de hoy tienen la expectativa de que el referndum tenga eco internacional y que se
vea reflejado en los discursos.
Mike Summers uno de los peticionantes y miembro de la Asamblea legislativa de las islas,
viene haciendo lobby a favor de que el mundo considere el asunto Malvinas como un
conflicto de autodeterminacin de los pueblos y no como un conflicto de soberana. De
hecho el 26 junio est previsto que Summers y su colega, Sharon Halford, hablaran en el
prestigioso Centro de Estudios Estratgicos e Internacionales (CSIS) de Washington. Hace
slo un par de semanas el representante republicano Mario Daz Balart, introdujo en la
Cmara de Diputados estadounidense una resolucin bipartidaria a favor del referndum y
de "la autodeterminacin de los pueblos que sin duda ser discutida durante la
conferencia del CSIS.
El encargado de defender la posicin argentina ser, una vez ms, el canciller argentino,
Hctor Timerman, quien se encuentra en Nueva York con una delegacin multipartidaria
que incluye la gobernadora de la Tierra del Fuego, Fabiana Ros, los gobernadores de Santa
Fe, Antonio Bonfatti; Misiones, Maurice Closs; los senadores nacionales Marina Riofro (FPV,
San Juan), Osvaldo Lpez (ARI, Tierra del Fuego) y Rubn Giustiniani (Partido Socialista,
Santa Fe) y los diputados nacionales Guillermo Carmona (FPV), Carlos Heller (FPV), Juan
Carlos Zabalza (Partido Socialista) y Pablo Tonelli (PRO).
De acuerdo a un comunicado de la Cancillera, Timerman ratificar la plena disposicin de
nuestro pas para encontrar una solucin pacfica a la disputa de soberana "lo que no ha
sido posible an como resultado de la sistemtica negativa del Reino Unido a reanudar las
negociaciones con la Argentina. Dir que "Esta situacin se ve a su vez agravada por las
medidas unilaterales britnicas en la zona en disputa, que incluyen el desarrollo de
ilegtimas actividades de exploracin y explotacin de recursos naturales renovables y no
renovables y la realizacin peridica de ejercicios militares.
Segn una declaratoria de ayer de Summers, al trmino de la presentacin de hoy, no slo
invocar el referndum sino tambin que el Comit de Descolonizacin tiene una lista de
los territorios en disputa de hace 50 aos. Summers acus a los miembros de este comit
de no haberse tomado el trabajo de viajar a esos territorios para ver qu pasa. "Algunos de
los territorios no estn listos para la independencia y muchos han encontrado maneras de
relacionarse con los poderes que las administran que les viene bien y quieren continuar as.
Si un territorio decidi voluntariamente que no quiere la independencia o la integracin,
quien es este comit para decirles que lo tiene que hacer?.
Ansa Latina (Itlia) Las FARC "proponen" democratizar el
estado
Las FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) presentaron hoy en Cuba
durante el dilogo de paz que desarrollan con el gobierno de Colombia diez propuestas
"mnimas" sobre la "democratizacn real del estado", segn anunciaron hoy los
guerrilleros.
Antes de iniciarse la sesin de este mircoles de esas negociaciones en el Palacio de las
Convenciones de la capital cubana, Ricardo Tllez, uno de los negociadores por las Fuerzas
Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, ley un comunicado al respecto ante la prensa.
Es "necesario e inaplazable el proceso de democratizacin real del Estado", explic Tllez.
El guerrillero dijo que se busca "la redefinicin de los poderes pblicos y de sus facultades,
as como del equilibro entre ellos, eliminando el carcter presidencialista del Estado".
40
The Wall Street Journal (EUA) Ministers MacKay and Ablonczy
and General Lawson Announce Increased Support to UN
Mission in Haiti
Ministers MacKay and Ablonczy and General Lawson Announce Increased Support to UN
Mission in Haiti
The Honourable Peter MacKay, Minister of National Defence, the Honourable Diane
Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs) and General
Tom Lawson, the Chief of the Defence Staff, today announced the upcoming deployment of
Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel as part of the United Nations Stabilization Mission
in Haiti (MINUSTAH).
A CAF platoon from Quebec will depart on Friday, June 21st, 2013 to operate within a
Brazilian battalion in Haiti until December. Their efforts will contribute to one of the CAF's
core roles - supporting international peace and security for greater stability in our
hemisphere. This mission also demonstrates the Government of Canada's ongoing
commitment engaging in the Americas and deepening partnerships throughout the region.
"Canadians have been part of MINUSTAH since its inception in 2004 and their ongoing
efforts will continue to benefit Haitians and improve Canada's relations with our partners in
the Western Hemisphere," said Minister MacKay. "As part of this mission, our Canadian
Armed Forces members will work alongside Brazilian troops to maintain a secure and stable
environment in Haiti."
"Both Brazil and Haiti are important neighbours for Canada. This new deployment is an
excellent opportunity to deepen our partnerships and further strengthen the connection
between our peoples," said the Honourable Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign
Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs). "I am very pleased that our armed forces will be
working together in this new capacity, as we support Haiti in building a brighter future for
the Haitian people, and in turn a more prosperous, secure and democratic hemisphere."
The 34 CAF members come from 5 Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group in Valcartier,
Quebec, and have completed language and peace-support training in Brazil to prepare
them for this new mission. This platoon will complement Canada's military contribution to
MINUSTAH that currently includes five military staff officers deployed on Operation Hamlet.
Additionally, there are approximately 90 Canadian police officers serving with the United
Nations in Haiti.
"Our increased contribution to the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti serves to
highlight Canada's on-going commitment to the region, as well as our commitment to
supporting international peace and security, " said General Tom Lawson, Chief of the
Defence Staff. "This deployment will also further develop our relationship and enhance our
military-military cooperation with Brazil. I have every confidence that our personnel will
serve with honour and distinction in Haiti; facts in which all Canadians can take great
pride."
MINUSTAH has been critical in stabilizing the security situation in Haiti and has made
important contributions by assisting with the conduct of elections, building up institutional
capacity and helping to develop a more effective police force, legal system and correctional
services.
MINUSTAH was established under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter by United
Nations Security Council Resolution 1542 of April 30, 2004, with a mandate to maintain a
secure and stable environment, to support Haiti's constitutional and political process, and
41
to protect human rights. Its initial term of six months has been repeatedly extended
annually, most recently to October 15, 2013, by United Nations Security Council Resolution
2070 of October 12, 2012.
El Pas (Espanha) EE UU y Cuba retoman el dilogo sobre los
acuerdos migratrios
EVA SAIZ
Es la segunda reapertura de negociaciones entre ambos pases en una semana.
El Departamento de Estado insiste en que no se trata de un cambio de poltica
Estados Unidos y Cuba retomarn el prximo 17 de julio las conversaciones para revisar la
implementacin de los acuerdos migratorios entre ambos pases, han confirmado fuentes
del Departamento de Estado a EL PAS. Se trata del segundo anuncio de reanudacin de
negociaciones entre la Administracin estadounidense y el Gobierno de la isla que se
produce en una semana, despus de que el lunes se informar del reinicio del dilogo para
restaurar el servicio postal directo, suspendido desde 1963. Desde el Departamento de
Estado se insiste en que estas iniciativas no son indicativas de un cambio en la poltica
hacia la isla, pero muchas asociaciones de exiliados y organizaciones centradas en Amrica
Latina lo consideran un avance hacia la normalizacin de las relaciones.
Los acuerdos de migracin son uno de los asuntos bilaterales de mayor transcendencia
entre ambos Estados. La crisis de los balseros en 1994 provoc un viraje en de la
aplicacin de la poltica migratoria de EE UU hacia Cuba que concluy con la firma de los
Acuerdos de 1994 y 1995 que regulan, entre otros aspectos, el control de la inmigracin
ilegal o el otorgamiento de visados. Es en el marco de esos dos pactos en el que se van a
desarrollar las nuevas conversaciones. "Entonces, EE UU y Cuba reiteraron su compromiso
de que la migracin fuera segura, legal y pacfica, sealan desde el Departamento de
Estado. "Esto demuestra nuestro inters en promover ms libertades y en incrementar el
respeto por los derechos humanos en Cuba.
Pese a ese inters, desde el Departamento de Estado indican que las negociaciones, que se
desarrollarn entre miembros de esa institucin y representantes del Gobierno cubano el
prximo mes, sern "eminentemente tcnicas y se centrarn en cuestiones relacionadas
con los emigrantes y los refugiados. La cuestin migratoria entre ambos pases ha cobrado
relevancia desde que el rgimen castrista levantara, con excepciones, las restricciones
sobre los viajes fuera de la isla a principio de enero de este ao. Desde entonces, se ha
producido un evidente aumento de los cubanos que llegan a EE UU directamente o a travs
de Mxico, de manera legal e ilegal. Aunque no hay cifras oficiales, el pasado mes de
mayo, el director de la Inteligencia Nacional, James Clapper, declar al Senado que desde
que ha entrado en vigor la nueva poltica migratoria de La Habana, se ha producido un
"aumento significativo de las solicitudes de visados por parte de cubanos.
La Administracin de George W. Bush suspendi los dilogos bianuales sobre los acuerdos
migratorios en 2003. El presidente Barack Obama los retom en 2009. La ltima vez que
se celebraron fue en 2011 en La Habana, pero las negociaciones se estancaron debido a la
detencin, en 2009, y posterior condena a 15 aos de prisin del ciudadano
estadounidense Alan Gross. La prisin de Gross es el principal obstculo para la
normalizacin de las relaciones entre EE UU y Cuba. Su falta de libertad provoc en 2009 la
paralizacin de las conversaciones sobre la restauracin del servicio postal entre ambos
pases, que se se retomaron este martes y finalizan hoy. -El Departamento de Estado no ha
dado informacin todava sobre los avances alcanzados-.
El anuncio de la reapertura de las negociaciones para reanudar el servicio postal fue
recibido con moderado optimismo por los grupos de exiliados cubanos que esperan pasos
42
ms importantes para acelerar la transicin poltica en la isla. Sin embargo, la confirmacin
de esta nueva iniciativa por parte del Departamento de Estado ha sido recibida como una
muestra inequvoca de la intencin de la Administracin Obama por acercar posturas con el
Gobierno de Cuba. "Obviamente que querramos ms, pero se trata de pasos en la buena
direccin que suponen un avance y no la creacin de ms obstculos, afirma en
conversacin telefnica, Mavis Anderson, miembro de Latin America Working Group.
Ms escptico se muestra Toms Bilbao, director ejecutivo de Cuban Study Group, Bilbao
sostiene que el Gobierno de EE UU debe adoptar medidas mucho ms ambiciosas si no
quiere defraudar las expectativas generadas por Obama sobre un viraje de la poltica de
este pas hacia la isla que permita la consolidacin de las reformas y ayude a la sociedad
civil. El hecho de que el Departamento de Estado decidiera mantener a Cuba en la lista de
pases terroristas se percibe por muchos cubanoamericanos como una lastre que todava
ensombrece los ltimos gestos de cambio de la Administracin. Los sectores ms
reaccionarios, no obstante, ven en el reinicio del dilogo migratorio una concesin de
Obama al rgimen castrista.
El Pas (Espanha) Pierde Estados Unidos a Latinoamrica?
(Opinio/ Shlomo Bem Ami)
El poderoso vecino del norte no debera ceder su posicin, dejndosela a Rusia, China o
Irn.
Es un mantra que se escucha cada vez ms en todo el mundo. El poder de Estados Unidos
est decayendo. Y en Amrica Latina esto se constata ms que en ningn otro lugar. La
regin ya no es considerada el "patio trasero de Estados Unidos, al contrario,
presumiblemente el continente nunca ha estado ni tan unido ni tan independiente. Sin
embargo, este punto de vista no refleja la verdadera naturaleza de la influencia
estadounidense en Amrica Latina y en otros lugares.
Es cierto que la atencin de Estados Unidos hacia Amrica Latina ha disminuido en aos
recientes. El presidente George W. Bush estaba ms concentrado en su "guerra global
contra el terrorismo. Su sucesor, Barack Obama, tuvo al parecer poco inters en la regin,
al menos en su primer mandato.
En efecto, en la Cumbre de las Amricas, que tuvo lugar en Cartagena en 2012, los
dirigentes latinoamericanos se sintieron lo suficientemente seguros y unidos como para
desafiar las prioridades estadounidenses en la regin. Exigieron a Estados Unidos levantar
el embargo a Cuba, con el argumento de que haba daado las relaciones con el resto del
continente, y hacer ms para combatir el uso de drogas en su propio mercado mediante
educacin y trabajo social, en lugar de suministrar armas para luchar contra los capos de la
droga en Amrica Latina -batalla que todos piensan ha sido un total fracaso-.
Tambin es cierto que los pases latinoamericanos han diversificado enormemente las
relaciones econmicas ms all de la influencia estadounidense. China es ahora el segundo
socio comercial ms grande de Amrica Latina y rpidamente est alcanzando a Estados
Unidos. India est mostrando un fuerte inters en la industria energtica de la regin y ha
concluido acuerdos de exportacin en el sector de defensa. Irn ha fortalecido sus vnculos
econmicos y militares, en especial con Venezuela.
Asimismo, en el ao 2008, el entonces presidente ruso, Dmitri Medvdev, vio la guerra
estadounidense contra el terrorismo como una oportunidad de crear acuerdos estratgicos
con potencias emergentes como Brasil o el ALBA, la Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos
de nuestra Amrica, un bloque ideado por Venezuela opuesto a los proyectos
estadounidenses en la regin. El gigante energtico, Gazprom y las industrias militares del
pas han encabezado los esfuerzos del Kremlin por demostrar la capacidad de influencia
43
rusa en los pases vecinos de Estados Unidos -una respuesta directa a la percepcin de
una intromisin estadounidense en el propio "vecindario inmediato ruso, en particular en
Georgia y Ucrania-.
Con todo, sera un error considerar la diversificacin de las relaciones internacionales de
Amrica Latina como el evento que marca el fin de la supremaca de Estados Unidos. A
diferencia de la era pasada de superpotencias y naciones cautivas, la influencia
estadounidense ya no puede seguir definindose como el poder de colocar y deponer
dirigentes desde la Embajada estadounidense. Pensar as es ignorar cmo ha cambiado la
poltica internacional en el ltimo cuarto de siglo.
Un continente que en otros tiempos sufri golpes militares ha implantando lenta, pero
firmemente democracias estables. La gestin econmica responsable, los programas de
lucha contra la pobreza, las reformas estructurales y una mayor apertura a la inversin
extranjera han contribuido en conjunto a generar aos de crecimiento con baja inflacin.
En consecuencia, la regin pudo resistir los estragos de la crisis financiera global.
Estados Unidos no solo foment estos cambios, sino que se benefici enormemente de
ellos. Ahora ms del 40% de las exportaciones estadounidenses van a Mxico, Sudamrica
y Amrica Central, su destino de ms rpido crecimiento. Mxico es el segundo mercado
extranjero ms grande de Estados Unidos (con un valor estimado de 215.000 millones de
dlares en 2012). En los ltimos seis aos, las exportaciones de Estados Unidos hacia
Amrica Central han aumentado un 94% y las importaciones procedentes de la regin han
crecido un 87%. Asimismo, la inversin extranjera ms importante en el continente sigue
siendo la de Estados Unidos. Es claro que los intereses estadounidenses se favorecen al
tener vecinos democrticos estables y cada vez ms prsperos.
Esta nueva realidad tambin exige un estilo diferente de diplomacia -uno que reconozca la
diversidad de intereses en el continente-. Por ejemplo, una potencia emergente como
Brasil quiere ms respeto en la escena mundial. Obama se equivoc cuando en 2010
descart un acuerdo sobre el programa nuclear de Irn mediado por Brasil y Turqua (a
pesar de que anteriormente haba respaldado estas negociaciones). Otros pases podran
verse favorecidos por los esfuerzos estadounidenses para promover la democracia y las
relaciones socioeconmicas, como muestran las giras recientes de Obama a Mxico y Costa
Rica.
Las relaciones comerciales representan otro instrumento importante. El presidente chileno,
Sebastin Piera, visit la Casa Blanca hace poco para tratar, entre otros, el tema del
acuerdo de Asociacin Transpacfico (TPP, por sus siglas en ingls), acuerdo ambicioso de
libre comercio que podra abarcar Nueva Zelanda, Singapur, Australia, Mxico, Canad y
Japn. Tambin visit la Casa Blanca el presidente peruano, Ollanta Humala, mientras que
el vicepresidente estadounidense, Joe Biden, tiene programado visitar Amrica Latina
pronto.
La lengua y cultura tambin importan. Dado el extraordinario crecimiento de la influencia
latina en Estados Unidos, es casi inconcebible que dicho pas pueda perder su estatus nico
en la regin a favor de China, Rusia y ya no se diga de Irn.
Ya pasaron los das en que el poder militar y la poltica de subversin podan garantizar la
influencia estadounidense -en Amrica Latina o en otros lugares-. Actualmente, una
potencia mundial es una que puede combinar el dinamismo econmico y una cultura
popular con un alcance mundial basado en intereses compartidos. Estados Unidos est
mejor posicionado que cualquier otra potencia en este sentido, en particular cuando se
trata de aplicar estas ventajas en su vecindario inmediato.
44
Shlomo ben Ami, exministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Israel, es vicepresidente del
Centro Internacional Toledo para la Paz (Toledo International Center for Peace) y autor de
Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy.
Traduccin de Kena Nequiz.
E!ROPA
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Erdogan woos Turks with
promises of more prosperity
Daniel Dombey
Appearing before the massed ranks of his AK party this week, Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke
off from his frequent denunciations of protesters to make a more positive case for his
stewardship of Turkey's government.
The prime minister appealed to Turks' economic self-interest as he reeled off new five-year
goals: increasing average income by more than 50 per cent to $16,000; reducing the
country's perennial current account deficit, creating 4m new jobs and taming inflation.
"Our greatest capital is our brotherhood," Mr Erdogan exclaimed. "While reaching these
targets we will be improving democracy . . . We will be walking towards much more
beautiful days."
Though his goals may be ambitious, particularly at a time when his government has been
rocked by mass peaceful protests, for large parts of Mr Erdogan's constituency they are
seen as anything but idle talk. During Mr Erdogan's decade in office, the country has
enjoyed unprecedented economic prosperity, political stability and indeed institutional
reform.
Government ministers have long argued that ten years of a strong single party government
have provided the basis of the country's economic success a contrast with the weak
coalitions that preceded it. Since 2002, real GDP per capita has risen more than 40 per
cent. In nominal dollar terms it has tripled.
In reacting to the protesters who have shaken his government, Mr Erdogan has not just
tried to dismiss them as marginal groups doing the bidding of international conspirators. He
has argued that with him at the helm, with solid public backing, Turkey stands to grow
more and address its most pressing problems.
This is the offer he is making the Turkish public as he seeks to put the protests behind him.
It is one that resonates with much of the population. The AK party remains by far the
country's most popular, despite a recent decline in its support.
But others question whether Mr Erdogan's prospectus is out of date and whether his glory
days of growth and reform now belong to the past.
"Despite all the events of the past three weeks, Turkey today is still not only more
prosperous and more peaceful but more democratic and freer than it was 10 years ago,"
says Hakan Altinay at the Brookings Institution. "But it isn't the protesters that are holding
him back from further reform; it is his temperament."
Mr Erdogan has been dogged in making his case. In one speech he pointed out that there
have been no deaths in the country's Kurdish conflict in recent months thanks to a peace
process he has embarked on. He has also sought to put reports of police beatings and
45
indiscriminate use of tear gas and water cannon in the context of his own record as a
reformer.
"When the police had right to use unlimited power, we limited this with the laws we made,"
he told an audience of hundreds of thousands at a weekend rally in Istanbul. "We said zero
tolerance to torture."
Mr Erdogan's many supporters have responded enthusiastically. "The AK party and Erdogan
have done many things for the Turkish economy and democracy in 10 years that others
could not manage in 30-40 years," said Mustafa Duran, a 42-year-old textile worker in the
Istanbul district of Umraniye.
But there are signs that some of Mr Erdogan's greatest accomplishments may be behind
him. Even per capita income in dollar terms, the most flattering measure of growth in the
AKP years, has not risen dramatically above the $10,000 level it hit in 2008.
Mr Altinay argues that many of the reforms Mr Erdogan presided over were due to the
country's membership application to the EU a bid already in trouble before the recent
scenes of police force reached Brussels and Berlin.
As for the Kurdish issue, in fighting back against the demonstrators, Mr Erdogan has
recently made common cause with Turkish nationalists for whom the Kurdish opening is
anathema. Kurdish activists and militants have begun to express pessimism about the
future of the talks.
"You can't be democratic and libertarian on one issue and harsh and despotic on another,"
says Cengiz Candar, a Turkish columnist. "It just doesn't work like that."
But Mr Altinay still holds out a little hope, in part based on the strategic imperative for Mr
Erdogan to end a 30 year conflict at a time when the Syrian war has increased instability in
the region and in Turkey itself. "The story of Erdogan the reformer was too rosy four weeks
ago," he says. "Now our pessimism may be overshooting."
La Tribune (Frana) Chypre est bien partie pour redevenir le
cauchemar des Europens
L'appel au secours du prsident chypriote doit tre pris au srieux par les Europens, s'ils
ne veulent pas que Chypre redevienne un cauchemar. Car les avantages de l'euro
s'estompent pour le pays.
Comme la lettre du prsident chypriote vient de le rappeler, l'affaire chypriote n'a rien
perdu de son caractre exemplaire pour le reste de l'Europe. A l'heure o le FMI reconnat -
la grande fureur de la Commission europenne et de la BCE - des erreurs dans la gestion
de la crise grecque, la troka semble en passe de doubler la mise avec Chypre.
La quadrature du cercle bancaire
L'aide cette petite rpublique a en effet t monte en urgence, sous la pression de la
BCE qui brandissait la menace d'une sortie de Chypre de la zone euro. Nul n'a sembl
rellement prendre la mesure des consquences et de la faisabilit des recettes prconiss.
Surtout, un seul critre a servi de fil conducteur : engager le moins possible les
contribuables des autres pays, tout en maintenant Chypre dans la zone euro. Ainsi a-t-on
exclu 15 milliards d'euros d'engagements grecs de toute participation au sauvetage afin de
prserver les banques grecques que l'on ne voulait pas nouveau recapitaliser. Ainsi a-t-on
galement maintenu dans le bilan de la Bank of Cyprus 9 milliards de crances sur la BCE
au titre de l'aide la liquidit d'urgence, l'ELA. Autant de poids que le systme bancaire
46
chypriote ne peut supporter, lui qui n'a gure dans son bilan que des dpts qui, depuis
mars, ont fondu de prs d'un cinquime, malgr le contrle des capitaux.
Depuis plusieurs mois, Nicosie et la troka tente de rsoudre la quadrature du cercle en
tenant de monter une restructuration viable du systme bancaire chypriote dans ces
conditions. C'est videmment impossible, moins de faire sortir le pays de la zone euro et
de payer en nouvelle monnaie ou d'augmenter le montant de la solidarit europenne.
Deux options exclues pour le moment. Mais la situation ne pourra rester indfiniment
bloque.
L'conomie se dlite
Car, pendant ce temps, l'conomie chypriote se dsintgre progressivement. Les prvisions
de la troka taient de toute vidence irralistes. Le PIB chypriote va reculer de 9 % cette
anne, peut-tre 5 % selon le FMI l'an prochain, En deux ans, la richesse du pays sera
rduite de 15 %. Mme la Grce n'a pas connu une telle cure. Les mesures d'austrit
imposes par la troka psent bien sr, mais c'est surtout l'absence de vrai secteur bancaire
et d'investissement en raison du contrle des capitaux qui asphyxie l'conomie chypriote.
Tout ceci amne l'absence absolue de confiance dans l'avenir qui gle encore le
fonctionnement de l'conomie. Et cette fois, il sera difficile de faire admettre que cette
potion permettra d'assurer la croissance future du pays.
Quitter l'euro est-il une solution ?
En ralit, la zone euro est devenue un enfer pour Chypre. Il est dsormais difficile de
penser qu'une sortie du pays de l'UEM - aussi catastrophique soit-elle - donne lieu une
situation pire que celle que connat le pays aujourd'hui. Sans doute, les Chypriotes
devront-ils compter avec l'inflation gnre par la dvaluation rapide de leur monnaie.
Sans doute, l'Etat chypriote, devenu insolvable et incapable d'emprunter sur les marchs,
devra-t-il serrer les vis. Mais, du moins, une nouvelle monnaie permettrait de faire
fonctionner nouveau l'conomie, en particulier le systme bancaire.
Prendre le risque de laisser sortir Chypre ?
La question se pose donc nouveau de savoir si Chypre doit rester ou non dans la zone
euro. Si l'Europe pense pouvoir rgler le problme en l'ignorant, elle se trompe. Une sortie
de l'le de la zone euro pourrait coter cher cette dernire. L'OMT, dont se vante tant
Mario Draghi, le gouverneur de la BCE mais qui n'est encore qu'une menace, pourrait bien
alors devoir tre actionn. Les marchs seraient en effet tents de tester la BCE sur le
fameux whatever it takes (quoi qu'il en cote) pour sauver l'euro de Mario Draghi. Or,
ce dernier doit craindre un tel scnario, lui qui n'a pas encore, malgr ses promesses,
publier le cadre lgal de l'OMT (9 mois aprs son annonce !). Sans compter que si Nicosie
quitte la zone euro, il y a fort parier que le MES et la BCE doivent encaisser des pertes.
Que l'Europe se mfie donc : la bombe chypriote est encore bourre d'explosifs. Et c'est ce
qu'a voulu dire Nikos Anastasiads avec son appel au secours. L'ignorer serait inconscient.
)SIA
Reuters (Reino Unido) Afghan peace bid stumbles on Kabul-
Taliban protocol row
By Amena Bakr
A fresh effort to end Afghanistan's 12-year-old war looked in disarray on Thursday after a
diplomatic spat about the Taliban's new Qatar office delayed preliminary discussions
between the United States and the Islamist insurgents.

47
Talks between U.S. officials and representatives of the Taliban had been set for Thursday in
Qatar but Afghan government anger at the fanfare surrounding the opening of a Taliban
office in the Gulf state threw preparations into confusion.

The squabble may set the tone for what could be long and arduous negotiations to end a
war that has raged since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan that followed the September 11,
2001 al Qaeda attacks on U.S. targets.

Asked when the talks would now take place, the source in Doha said "There is nothing
scheduled that I am aware of." Asked if that meant they would not happen today, the
source added: "Yes that's correct."

The opening of the office was a practical step paving the way for peace talks. But the
official-looking protocol surrounding the event raised angry protests in Kabul that the office
would develop into a Taliban government-in-exile: A diplomatic scramble ensued to allay
their concerns.

A Taliban flag that had been hoisted at the Taliban office on Tuesday had been taken down
and lay on the ground on Thursday, although it appeared still attached to a flagpole.

A name plate, inscribed with the title "Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan"
had also been removed.

Questioned whether the Taliban's office in Doha had created a sense of optimism about
peace efforts, the source replied: "Optimism and pessimism are irrelevant. The most
important thing is that we now know the Taliban are ready to talk, and sometimes talk is
expensive."

Word of the U.S.-Taliban talks had raised hopes that Karzai's government and the Taliban
might enter their first-ever direct negotiations on Afghanistan's future, with Washington
acting as a broker and Pakistan as a major outside player.

The Taliban has until now refused talks with Kabul, calling Karzai and his government
puppets of the West. But a senior Afghan official said earlier the Taliban was now willing to
consider talks with the government.

PRISONER SWAP
In its talks with the U.S. officials, the Taliban was expected to demand the return of former
senior commanders now detained at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a
move opposed by many in the U.S. Congress, as well as the departure of all foreign troops.

The United States wants the return of the only known U.S. prisoner of war from the
conflict, Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, who is believed to be held by the Taliban.

The protocol dispute burst into the open on Wednesday when Afghan President Hamid
Karzai said his government would not join U.S. talks with the Taliban and would halt
negotiations with Washington on a post-2014 troop pact.

Officials from Karzai's government, angered by the official-sounding name the Taliban
chose for its political office in Doha, said the United States had violated assurances it would
not give official status to the insurgents.

Afghan government officials objected to the impression that the insurgents had achieved
some level of international political recognition and could use it as an official embassy or
even as a base for a government-in-exile.

48
"As long as the peace process is not Afghan-led, the High Peace Council will not participate
in the talks in Qatar," Karzai said in a statement, referring to a body he set up in 2010 to
seek a negotiated peace with the Taliban.

VOID OF TRUST
A statement on Qatar's foreign ministry website late on Wednesday clarified that the office
which opened was called the "Political Bureau for Afghan Taliban in Doha".

The source familiar with the matter said: "The Taliban have to understand that this office
isn't an embassy and they are not representing a country."

The dispute over the Taliban office after months of behind-the-scenes diplomacy to restart
the peace talks underscored what U.S. officials say is a void of trust between Karzai and
the Taliban, who have been waging an insurgency to overthrow his government and oust
foreign troops.

Fighting continued in the war-ravaged nation. Four U.S. soldiers were killed in a rocket
attack on the heavily fortified Bagram base near Kabul late on Tuesday, international
military officials said.

U.S. and Afghan officials said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry spoke with Karzai on
Tuesday night and again on Wednesday morning in an effort to defuse the controversy.

Underlining the importance of the process to the United States, the State Department said
Kerry would travel to Doha for meetings with senior Qatari officials on Friday and Saturday.
But U.S. officials said he would not meet with Taliban representatives.

(Additional reporting by Yara Bayoumy in Dubai, Miriam Arghandiwal, Jeff Mason and
Roberta Rampton in Berlin and Phil Stewart in Washington; writing by William Maclean;
editing by Philippa Fletcher)
Reuters (Reino Unido) Myanmar constitution likely to dash Suu
Kyi's presidential hopes
By Jared Ferrie
Her adoring compatriots believe democracy champion Aung San Suu Kyi is destined to
become Myanmar's next president. But don't bet on it.
A year ago, the Nobel Peace Prize winner was feted at home and abroad and flush from her
National League for Democracy (NLD) party's landslide wins in April 2012 by-elections,
which swept her into parliament.
Even a military-drafted constitution designed to exclude her from the highest office seemed
a surmountable hurdle.
Now the journey from political prisoner to president appears much less certain, even as her
ambition is clearer than ever.
"I want to be president and I'm quite frank about it," she told journalists at the World
Economic Forum in the capital Naypyitaw on June 6.
But to emerge as president after a 2015 general election, Suu Kyi, 68, must overcome
challenges that would daunt a less formidable political survivor.
She must convince a military-dominated parliament to amend the constitution.
49
Even if she can do that, and the constitution can be amended in time, she could then face
a voter backlash over her position on a violent and widening rift between her nation's
Buddhists and minority Muslims.
Her rare public expressions of support for Muslims, who have borne the brunt of waves of
sectarian violence, put her in a politically fraught position in the Buddhist-majority country.
Some people wonder if the violence is being exploited by conservative opponents to chip
away at her support.
To win power, she would also have to fend off two former generals who covet the top spot.
The first is Shwe Mann, the influential speaker of Myanmar's lower house.
The other is the popular incumbent Thein Sein, whose quasi-civilian government took
power in March 2011 after nearly half a century of military rule and launched a series of
political and economic reforms. Thein Sein might seek a second term despite health
concerns.
NO EASY TASK
Suu Kyi's most immediate problem is the constitution.
It bars anyone married to a foreigner or who has children who are foreign citizens. Suu Kyi
and her husband, the late British academic Michael Aris, had two children who are British.
"By all accounts it was drawn up with her in mind," Andrew McLeod, a professor at Sydney
Law School and deputy director of the Myanmar Constitutional Reform Project, said of the
constitution, drawn up under the former military junta.
Any constitutional amendment would require 75 percent support in parliament - no easy
task when the constitution also reserves a quarter of seats for the military.
Most of the rest of the members of parliament are members of the Union Solidarity and
Development Party (USDP), created by the old junta and largely made up of retired military
officers.
If passed by parliament, an amendment must win more than half the vote in a referendum.
Some analysts say there just isn't enough time to do all that before the 2015 election.
But even if she can pull off the amendments, the reality of partisan politics could threaten
Suu Kyi's presidential hopes.
Suu Kyi, the daughter of the hero of the campaign for independence from Britain, faces
pressure internationally to defend the persecuted, including Muslims. But when she does,
her once-unassailable popularity is threatened.
At least 237 people have been killed in violence between Myanmar's Buddhists and Muslims
over the past year and about 150,000 people have been left homeless. Most of the victims
have been stateless Rohingya Muslims in the western state of Rakhine.
Groups such as the New York-based Human Rights Watch have condemned Suu Kyi for not
using her moral authority to speak in defence of the Rohingya for fear of upsetting the
Buddhist majority ahead of the election.
A 1982 law bars most Rohingya from citizenship and the government - and many ordinary
Buddhists - consider them illegal immigrants from Bangladesh even though many can trace
ancestry in Rakhine state for generations.
50
ALIENATING VOTERS?
When asked about her failure to strongly condemn violence against the Rohingya, Suu Kyi
said at the World Economic Forum she didn't want to "aggravate the situation" by taking
sides. But she has criticised a policy in Rakhine State limiting Rohingya women to two
children.
Suu Kyi has also said the government should re-examine the 1982 citizenship law. But that
prompted the Daily Eleven newspaper to warn that any attempt by her to change the law
would alienate voters and cost her party the next election.
For Suu Kyi the presidency would crown a remarkable life.
The military put her under house arrest in 1989 following the suppression of pro-
democracy protests. The NLD swept a 1990 election by a landslide but the junta ignored
the result and kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for 15 of the next 20 years.
She was released in November 2010 a week after a general election, widely regarded as
rigged, swept the USDP to power. The NLD boycotted the election as undemocratic.
The European Union and United States have lifted or suspended most sanctions against
Myanmar, although Washington warned they could be reimposed if it backtracked on
reform.
Denying Suu Kyi a crack at the presidency could suggest to the world that Myanmar is
doing just that, said McLeod. This could prompt Western companies to halt investment in
one of Asia's last frontier economies.
But Bertil Lintner, a veteran journalist and author of several books on Myanmar, said that
was not likely.
"I think the foreign business community would prefer to have the USDP and the military in
power," he said. "For them, it means stability and continuity."
)FRICA
Global Post (EUA) UN vows attack will not end Somalia mission
United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council on Wednesday expressed
outrage at an Islamist attack on an UN compound in Somalia which killed least nine people.
Seven attackers were also killed in the suicide bombing on the UN compound in Mogadishu,
and attack claimed by Shebab militants, which was followed by a fierce gun battle with
security forces.
Ban telephoned Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud soon after the attack, UN
spokesman Martin Nesirky said.
"The secretary general said the United Nations would not be deterred from delivering its
mandate," said Nesirky, in a statement released from Beijing where Ban is on an official
visit.
He said Ban was "deeply concerned and outraged by the despicable attack."
51
The 15-nation Security Council also said it was outraged by the attack and praised the
"brave response" by Somali armed forces and the African Union-UN peacekeepers who
fought off the Shebab guerrillas.
The council "underlines that terrorist acts in Somalia will not lessen the council's resolve to
support Somalia's transition to peace and stability."
It said it was ready "to take action against those whose behavior threatens the peace,
stability or security of Somalia."
The UN mission to Somalia headquarters has only recently been moved to Mogadishu
because of the security threat and Nicholas Kay, a British diplomat, only started as the UN
envoy there on June 3.
"I don't think there has been excessive optimism," said Britain's UN ambassador Mark Lyall
Grant, Security Council president for June.
"Given the 20 years of civil war and instability in Somalia, very significant progress has
been made," he added.
"Everyone knows that that progress is very fragile, everyone knows there are very
significant challenges, both security and political and indeed economic and humanitarian
ahead for Somalia."
All Security Council members had backed moving the mission to Mogadishu.
People's Daily Online (China) Consejo de Seguridad de ONU
elogia acuerdo de tregua en Mali
El Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) dio la bienvenida este mircoles a
un acuerdo de tregua firmado el martes entre el gobierno y los rebeldes en Mali, llamando
a los signatarios a "implementar plenamente sus disposiciones".
El Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) dio la bienvenida este mircoles a
un acuerdo de tregua firmado el martes entre el gobierno y los rebeldes en Mali, llamando
a los signatarios a "implementar plenamente sus disposiciones".
"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad dan la bienvenida a la firma en Ouagadougou el
18 de junio de 2013 de un 'acuerdo preliminar para las elecciones presidenciales y a las
conversaciones de paz inclusivas en Mali' entre las autoridades del gobierno de transicin,
el Movimiento Nacional para la Liberacin de Azawad (MNLA) y el Consejo Superior de la
Unidad de Azawad (HCUA)", indica un comunicado de prensa divulgado aqu la noche del
mircoles.
El acuerdo, alcanzado tras 10 das de tensas negociaciones, permitir que las tropas
maliense entren en la ciudad de Kidal, ocupada por los rebeldes, en el noreste del pas de
Africa Occidental para garantizar la seguridad durante las elecciones presidenciales
previstas para el 28 de julio.
Las conversaciones de paz a largo plazo se iniciarn despus de las elecciones.
"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad apuntan que este acuerdo reafirma la soberana,
la integridad territorial, la unidad nacional y la laicidad del Estado de Mali, proporciona un
alto el fuego inmediato y allana el camino para la celebracin a escala nacional de
elecciones presidenciales", asegura el comunicado.
52
Adems, contina, "establece un marco para unas conversaciones inclusivas con todas las
comunidades del norte de Mali y constituye un importante paso hacia la paz y la estabilidad
duraderas en Mali".
"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad elogian en este sentido los esfuerzos de
mediacin de la Comunidad Econmica de Estados de Africa Occidental (ECOWAS) dirigidos
por los presidentes de Burkina Faso y Nigeria, con el apoyo del representante especial del
secretario general de la ONU, el representante superior de la Unin Africana y el
representante especial de la Unin Europea", indica el texto.
"Los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad llaman a todos los signatarios a implementar
plenamente sus disposiciones, con el apoyo de la Misin Multidimensional Integrada de
Estabilizacin de las Naciones Unidas en Mali (MINUSMA), la Misin Internacional de Apoyo
a Mali liderada por Africa (AFISMA), la Unin Africana (UA) y la ECOWAS", destaca.
Las negociaciones se iniciaron el pasado 8 de junio para eliminar las diferencias entre las
partes rivales previo a las elecciones previstas para julio con el propsito de poner fin a la
crisis desatada tras el golpe de estado del 22 de marzo del ao pasado.
En abril, el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU aprob una operacin de mantenimiento de
paz de la ONU, integrada por 12.600 miembros, conocida como MINUSMA, para tomar el
mando en Mali el prximo 1 de julio durante un periodo inicial de 12 meses.
Le Monde (Frana) Quand la marine franaise traque les pirates
Golfe de Guine Envoye spciale
Menaces terroristes, prises d'otages, trafics : le golfe de Guine s'impose comme une
priorit stratgique
Dans la nuit opaque, des dizaines de puits crachent des flammes oranges. C'est la seule
lueur visible sur la mer noir d'encre, dans cette portion du golfe de Guine, au sud du
Nigeria, l'un des plus grands champs ptrolifres offshore du monde. A bord du Latouche-
Trville, l'obscurit rgne aussi. La frgate franaise patrouille en silence. Pour cette nuit de
juin, au large de Port Harcourt, le navire de guerre s'est trac un terrain de jeu de 200
km2. La zone est hrisse de piges : forages abandonns, plates-formes secondaires,
plates-formes mres, oloducs reliant les unes aux autres en toile d'araigne, sur des
milliers de kilomtres. Les puits du groupe ptrolier franais Total figurent telles de larges
pices de monnaie sur les cartes de la marine nationale.
Le Latouche-Trville a " quelques changes informels " avec les compagnies franaises dans
la zone, mais le bateau veut circuler sans rendre compte ; il demeure sourd aux appels des
trangers qui lui demandent de s'identifier. " Ici, c'est chacun pour soi ", commente
l'officier de quart. Les plates-formes ptrolires violent le droit des eaux internationales en
traant autour d'elles, 20 km au lieu des 500 m autoriss, un primtre de scurit gard
par des socits militaires prives. " Les gardes sont trs nerveux. L'inscurit est trs
leve ", poursuit l'officier.
Dans ces eaux chaudes, o transitent les richesses de l'Afrique, il rde des fantmes :
vedettes blindes des armes prives, circulant tous feux teints ; embarcations des
pirates au systme d'identification coup ; pcheurs illgaux ; trafiquants d'essence,
d'armes, de drogue et d'tres humains. Au large de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, le Bureau maritime
international (BMI) a recens 966 marins viss en 2012 : 70 attaques ont eu lieu depuis
dbut 2013 dans le golfe.
Pour les Franais, la dernire a eu lieu le 13 juin. Le ptrolier MT Adour, a t attaqu au
large du Togo, avant d'tre amen dans les eaux nigrianes. Les assaillants, une dizaine
d'hommes arms de kalachnikovs, n'ont pu siphonner les cuves, vides. Ils se sont rabattus
53
sur le carburant de propulsion, mais ils ont aussi pris en otage le commandant - aussitt
relch terre - et son second. Celui-ci a t libr mardi 18 au Nigeria, tandis que le
Latouche-Trville escortait le ptrolier.
Le golfe de Guine est une des priorits de la dfense franaise. Elle y dploie une mission
de surveillance baptise " Corymbe ". Pour la premire fois, depuis dbut avril, une frgate
de premier rang tient la permanence. Lance en 1990, Corymbe a t conue pour appuyer
ponctuellement une opration terrestre. Mais, depuis 1996, dans cette zone d'inscurit
croissante, la marine patrouille sans discontinuer, appuye par un avion Atlantique 2, bas
Dakar.
Les choses ne sont pas prsentes ainsi, mais ce navire forme bien la quatrime base
franaise en Afrique, avec celles de Dakar, de Libreville et de Djibouti. Les intrts franais
dans la zone sont majeurs. On compte 1 500 entreprises et 90 000 ressortissants dans
l'Ouest subsaharien, dont la majorit dans les villes baignes par le golfe de Guine,
souligne Mathieu Le Hunsec, auteur d'un ouvrage sur la marine nationale en Afrique. D'ici
provient le quart de l'approvisionnement national en ptrole. Les ports de la rgion sont
aussi des points d'appui pour intervenir au Sahel. De Cotonou part l'uranium extrait par
Areva au Niger. Par Douala passe la logistique de l'arme de terre en Rpublique
centrafricaine. Depuis Dakar, l'arme soutient ses oprations au Mali.
Renseignement, coopration militaire avec les pays riverains : la mission couvre un trs
vaste primtre maritime, du Sngal au Congo. " Il s'agit de maintenir les choses un
niveau de violence peu prs matris, ne pas laisser une situation se dgrader dans la
rgion sans qu'on en ait connaissance ", rsume le commandant Xavier de Vricourt. Le
bateau de Corymbe sera le premier pouvoir vacuer des ressortissants en cas de crise. Le
Latouche-Trville transporte l'quipement d'un groupe commando qui pourrait tre largu
en mer pour le rejoindre. Les chances lectorales dans la rgion sont un baromtre pour
l'tat-major. En ligne de mire aujourd'hui : les fragilits du Nigeria et du Cameroun.
La piraterie, qui s'tend vers la Cte d'Ivoire, devient plus violente. Sa nature change, elle
passe de la pure prdation conomique la prise d'otages. En tmoigne l'attaque qui a vis
dans la nuit du 4 au 5 juin l'Arethuse, un navire franais de service offshore de la socit
Bourbon. " Les pirates cherchaient des expatris ", indique le commandant du Latouche-
Trville. Deux vedettes de 20 m, une douzaine d'hommes arms en " uniforme ", trs
organiss : les assaillants ont ouvert le feu pour prendre possession du bord. Les expatris
ont eu le temps de se barricader dans une chambre forte.
Des marins nigrians qui n'avaient pas eu le temps de se barricader seront laisss libres.
Repartis bredouilles, les assaillants ont attaqu sur leur route deux autres navires, le C-
Viking et le Miss-Kayla. La frgate a repr les deux bateaux pirates 5 km plus loin,
drivant ensemble tous feux teints. Ils sont dsormais dment rpertoris.
Un " contrle naval volontaire " a t institu dans le golfe de Guine, pilot par la marine
depuis Brest : le bateau de l'opration Corymbe contacte tous les navires battant pavillon
franais ou les bateaux " d'intrt " qui se dclarent. La militarisation de la zone semble
invitable. " Si la mer n'est pas contrle, si aucune prsence n'est assure, on verra des
gens s'y mettre ", note le commandant du Latouche-Trville.
La dfense amricaine dveloppe depuis 2006 un projet d'aide aux marines locales dans le
cadre de l'Africa Partnership Station. Les Etats-Unis donnent des patrouilleurs tous les
pays de la rgion. La France mne des actions de formation similaires, notamment en
Guine-Equatoriale o elle a ouvert une cole navale. Avec l'aide d'autres partenaires -
Isral, Chine, Russie -, les pays ctiers du golfe de Guine tentent de constituer une
marine nationale.
54
La prise de conscience de cette ncessit est rcente. En fvrier 2009, le palais prsidentiel
de Guine-Equatoriale, Malabo, la capitale situe sur l'le de Bioko au large du Cameroun,
a t attaqu depuis la mer. Des attaques but crapuleux ont vis de la mme faon des
banques Douala (Cameroun), des supermarchs Port-Gentil (Gabon). Pirates, mafias et
groupes politiques rebelles s'imbriquent.
En mars 2010, un site de Total avait t attaqu pour la premire fois par le Mouvement
pour l'mancipation du delta du Niger. " Des milices apparaissent, disparaissent, mais
oprent toujours ", commente le capitaine de vaisseau Jol Manga, qui a embarqu le 9
juin avec des officiers camerounais pour un exercice bord du Latouche-Trville. " Nous
avons d'abord un problme de pche illgale dans les eaux territoriales, note-t-il, mais
nous concentrons aussi nos forces au nord, pour viter que les menaces issues du Nigeria,
y compris Boko Haram, s'tendent. "
Un PC rgional s'est mis en place Douala, o le capitaine de vaisseau Boulingui, officier
gabonais, salue de premiers " rsultats positifs " au large du Cameroun. " La mer n'est plus
vide. Mais nous n'avons que trois bateaux et nous avons besoin de ratisser plus large. " La
coopration maritime sera au menu du sommet des chefs d'Etat d'Afrique centrale et de
l'Ouest Yaound, les 24 et 25 juin.
Sngal, Liberia, Cap-Vert, Guine-Conakry, Cte d'Ivoire, Ghana... Le Latouche-Trville
aura fait une quinzaine d'escales en quatre mois de mission. Elles servent de test : si le
programme est tenu, si les marins travaillent bien ensemble, c'est que le pays tient bon.
Nathalie Guibert
Libration (Frana) Ils avaient la corde au cou
(Entrevista/Harouna Toureh)
Harouna Toureh, membre du Front patriotique de rsistance (FPR), tait prsent lors des
ngociations. Opposant aux rebelles touaregs, lavocat doute de leur sincrit :
Recueilli par J.-L.L.T.
Lavocat Harouna Toureh, membre du Front patriotique de rsistance (FPR), dfenseur
des milices - notamment Ganda Koy, un groupe arm d'auto dfense oppos aux Touaregs
- bases dans le Nord, a t convi la table des ngociations. S'il a toujours cru une
signature qualifie par lui de praccord, il ne croit en revanche pas un seul instant,
mme aprs dix jours de rudes ngociations, la sincrit du Mouvement national de
libration de l'Azawad (MNLA) et du Haut Conseil pour l'unit de 1'Azawad (HCUA).
Pourquoi n'avez-vous pas confiance dans la signature du MNLA et du HCUA?
Cela fait vingt ans que les groupes touaregs se jouent du Mali, qu'ils trompent leur monde,
qu'ils se trans-forment en sous-groupes, changent sans cesse d'acronymes. Ansar ed-
Dine devient le Mouvement islamique de l'Azawad (MIA) qui, son tour, se fond dans le
HCUA, qui va fusionner avec le MNLA. On s'y perd, dans ce labyrinthe religioso politico-
mafieux. Mais c'est toujours les pauvres, les moins duqus qu'on envoie sur le terrain se
faire trouer la peau: pas les chefs, trs bien forms, qui parlent cinq langues. Ce sont eux
qui tirent les ficelles. Ils fascinent Paris qui a pour eux les yeux de l'amour : ah, les
hommes bleus...
Mais vous y croyez, cette signature ?
Le prsident burkinab, Blaise Compaor, et la communaut internationale ont mis la
pression sur les groupes touaregs. Ils ont sign parce qu'ils avaient la corde au cou. Ils
taient fatigus, puiss, traqus. Des mandats d'arrt ont t dlivrs contre certains.
Mais, pour autant, ils ne respecteront pas leur propre signature, c'est ainsi. Comme ce fut
le cas en 1994, lorsque nous avions pris la place de l'arme malienne dans le Nord pour
55
faire respecter nos droits face aux pillages et la menace scessionniste qui pointait. Ils
vont tout faire dans quelques mois pour re-venir sur cet accord. Ces chefs touaregs, qu'ils
soient du MNLA ou du HCUA, ne connaissent que le rapport de force. Il leur est dfavorable
pour le moment, mais qui dit que dans six mois, deux ans, les armes ne vont pas encore
parler dans le Nord?
La Minusma, force de l'ONU au Mali, va pourtant dployer 12 000 hommes...
Croyez-vous qu'elle puisse contrler elle seule un territoire si vaste? Croyez-vous que
les militaires de l'ONU vont pouvoir recenser tous les Touaregs et autres miliciens en
armes? Leurs caches sont dj prvues. La communaut internationale ne connatra
jamais le nombre exact des hommes arms et de leurs combattants. Ils ont une capacit
se rgnrer qui m'pate. On les croit dfaits, ils rejaillissent ailleurs. Plus forts, sous
un nouveau nom, en recrutant dans tous les milieux. Pour preuve, mon neveu en fait
partie... De ce point de vue, ils me fascinent par leur capacit de renaissance.
Mais cet accord de dsarmement vous concerne aussi en tant que milices armes?
Nous avons t de nombreuses fois pigs par le pass. Ainsi, nous ne nous
dsarmerons que lorsque les groupes touaregs auront commenc le faire de manire
effective, sous contrle onusien. C'est ce que j'ai expliqu Blaise Compaor. Je lui ai
aussi dit que le dsarmement ne signifiait pas que nous abandonnerions le mtier des
armes, nous continuerons former nos jeunes. Devant cette menace momentanment
affaiblie, nous, populations patriotiques du Nord, voulons devenir une sorte d'Isral, en
quelque sorte des juifs du Nord, capables de nous dfendre contre les agressions qui, un
jour, vont nouveau invitablement nous retomber dessus.
Recueilli par J. -L.L.T.
DIREITOS ,!MANOS
Inter Press Services (Itlia) Highest Number of Refugees in
Two Decades
By Fabiola Ortiz
Yves Norodom, a 21-year-old refugee from the Democratic Republic of Congo living in
Brazil, is one of 45.2 million displaced people around the world the largest number in 20
years.
In its annual report Global Trends 2012: Displacement, the New 21st Century Challenge,
released Wednesday, the UNHCR said 28.8 million of that total were internally displaced
persons (IDPs), 15.4 million were refugees outside their own countries, and nearly one
million were asylum-seekers.
Some 35.8 million people were under the UNHCR mandate by late 2012 the second
highest number on record.
On average, 23,000 people were forced to flee their homes every day in 2012.
Norodom told IPS that he fled his country, the DRC, for Kenya, and from there to the
United Kingdom, before finally making his way to Brazil in 2010 without documents or
belongings.
"In Congo, everyone feared for their lives, he said. "I was struggling to survive, I did the
impossible to make it. My job was to save my own skin, and I was 17 years old at the
time.
56
His father, a member of the opposition, had to flee the DRC nearly a decade ago, and
Norodoms 15 siblings gradually found refuge in other countries, until the family ended up
spread out across the globe.
"They threatened us, and six of us landed in Brazil. Others had already found refuge,
some in Africa, others in France. We had to split up, he lamented.
One of Norodoms biggest challenges has been learning Portuguese. "I had never heard the
language before. It took me six months to learn the basics, and a year to speak it a little
better.
He is currently unemployed, but he dreams of one day returning to school and attending
the public university in Rio de Janeiro to study chemical engineering.
"I wouldnt say Im very happy, but at least Im alive and Im ok, he said.
Norodom is one of 4,715 refugees of 76 nationalities in Brazil, according to figures from
CONARE, the governments national refugee agency. Of that total, 2,012 receive assistance
from the UNHCR.
"They are people who belong to ethnic groups fleeing for reasons of thought or conflicts.
Our challenge is to offer the refugees better conditions to adapt and integrate, said
CONARE vice-president Joo Guilherme Granja.
Brazil has adequate laws on refugees and offers them the same public services that are
enjoyed by the countrys citizens. But this country of 198 million people receives a far
smaller number of refugees than much poorer countries like Pakistan, which currently hosts
over 1.6 million refugees.
At the launch of the Global Trends report ahead of World Refugee Day (Jun. 20), UNHCR
representative in Brazil Andrs Ramrez said armed conflict was still the main cause of
forced displacement.
He said more than half of the worlds refugees came from five countries: Afghanistan, Iraq,
Somalia, Sudan and Syria.
On average, war and other crises drove one person from their home every 4.1 seconds,
last year, Ramrez said. "The political will to prevent conflicts has been lacking at a global
level, he added. "The refugee issue is a human tragedy of enormous magnitude.
As it has for the past three decades, Afghanistan headed the list, accounting for one of
every four of the 10.5 million refugees under the UNHCR mandate, or 2.5 million. It was
followed by Somalia (1.1 million), Iraq (746,700), and Syria (471,400).
The report says about four-fifths of the worlds refugees flee to neighbouring countries.
The list of countries hosting the largest refugee populations includes Pakistan, the DRC,
Kenya, Iran, Syria and Kenya.
In 2012, Brazil received over 1,200 requests for asylum, and the number will be bigger
this year, Ramrez said.
"We have more requests now because of the crises around the world, the UNCHR
representative said. "Brazil is a country of continental dimensions and could receive more
refugees, but it is far away from the places where the humanitarian crises are occurring.
57
The rise in the cost of living in Brazils cities and the day-to-day difficulties in making a
living faced by a large part of the population also affect the quality of life of refugees, said
Aline Thuller, with the Catholic NGO Caritas.
"A majority of the refugees live in favelas (shantytowns) and other poor neighbourhoods.
They have the same rights to public services and face the same difficulties as Brazilians.
Most of them work in the informal sector, she told IPS.
"There is still a lot of prejudice against refugees, Thuller said.
In the past, the refugees assisted by Caritas were mainly Angolan men, who were fleeing
forced recruitment during the 27-year civil war in that former Portuguese colony in
southern Africa.
But today, many pregnant women and entire families reach Rio de Janeiro as refugees.
The state of Rio de Janeiro, which receives the second-largest number of refugees after
So Paulo, is in the final stages of designing a state-wide refugee policy.
Under the new policy, "working groups will be created by thematic area and will organise
practical activities, to facilitate refugees access to basic rights, Thuller said.
TEMAS ECON-MICOS. FINANCEIROS E COMERCIAIS
Reuters (Reino Unido) Brazil inflation erodes Rousseff 's
popularity poll
Growing discontent over rising prices in Brazil has dragged down President Dilma
Rousseff's approval rating from record highs, pollsters said on Wednesday, adding that her
popularity could deteriorate further if inflation is not tamed.
The CNI/Ibope opinion poll was taken before the start of a current wave of nationwide
protests against inflation and other ills including corruption and poor public services.
Rousseff's approval rating fell 8 percentage points to 55 percent, according to the poll, the
third in two weeks to show inflation hurting the popularity of the leftist ruler, who is
expected to run for re-election next year.
"If the government cannot revert the inflationary trend and the economy fails to recover
then very clearly" her popularity will continue to suffer, said Renato da Fonseca, executive
manager of research at the National Industries Confederation (CNI).
The drop in Rousseff's popularity comes at a delicate moment in Brazil. A rise in
transportation fares across several major cities in recent weeks, which is likely to push
inflation even higher this month, sparked street protests that grew into massive nationwide
demonstrations against the poor quality of transportation, education, health and other
grievances.
Da Fonseca said that it was still too early to measure the impact the protests will have on
Rousseff's approval ratings.
Public sentiment on Rousseff's government in areas like education, health and public
security remained largely stable in June from March, the poll showed.
58
The disapproval of her administration's handling of inflation, however, rose 10 percentage
points to 57 percent, the biggest jump among the nine areas analyzed in the survey.
Annual inflation through mid-June is expected to pierce the ceiling of the official target of
6.5 percent even as Latin America's largest economy fails to recovery from two years of
sub par growth.
The overall disapproval of her administration rose from 7 percent three months ago to 13
percent, its highest since Rousseff took office in January 2011.
Although her popularity remains very high, Rousseff trails her predecessor and political
mentor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who at the same period during his second term enjoyed
an approval rating of 68 percent, the poll showed.
In recent speeches, Rousseff has emphasized her government's commitment to fight
inflation at all costs to protect Brazilian's purchasing power.
Rousseff said on Tuesday that she is listening closely to the grievances of protestors,
acknowledging the need to better public services.
The CNI/Ibope poll, which was conducted between June 8 and 11, interviewed 2,002
people and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
(Reporting by Alonso Soto and Carl Patchen, editing by Reese Ewing).
Reuters (Reino Unido) Brasil vai retomar crescimento robusto,
diz Tombini-jornal
Sakari Suoninen
O Brasil ser capaz de superar a atual desacelerao econmica e retornar a um
crescimento robusto, enquanto segue de olho nas sadas de capital, disse o presidente do
Banco Central, Alexandre Tombini, segundo um dirio alemo.
O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro cresceu 1,9 por cento no primeiro trimestre deste
ano em relao a igual perodo de 2012. Tombini disse que, embora seja improvvel ver
um crescimento como os 7,5 por cento de 2010, esperada uma acelerao sobre o atual
ritmo.
"Uma mdia de crescimento de 4 a 4,5 por cento factvel", ele disse em entrevista ao
dirio alemo Handelsblatt.
Tombini disse que o pas tem sido bem-sucedido em enfrentar as instabilidades das
entradas de capital e precisa agora fazer a mesma coisa quando os dlares comeam a
sair.
"Agora preciso cuidar que as sadas de capital e a normalizao no levem a novas
instabilidades", acrescentou.
Tombini tambm disse que o BC segue com foco no combate inflao.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) Royalty rise tests Brazilian
mining relations
Joe Leahy
Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff on Tuesday launched a mining bill that proposes to
potentially double royalties in a move that will test strained relations with investors.
59
But the long-awaited proposal, which will now go before Congress, was less onerous than
some in the industry had feared when negotiations on it began four years ago during the
global commodities supercycle.
"[Royalties] will now comprise of quotas of up to 4 per cent of mining companies'
revenues," Ms Rousseff said in a ceremony to launch the bill. "This will give an important
increase to the budgets of states and municipalities that are host to mining activities."
Relations between Ms Rousseff's government and investors have become more strained as
efforts by the government to cut taxes and protect some industries have failed to revive
Brazil's former rapid growth rates.
There were also fears that Brazil might belatedly seek to cash in on the mining boom
through the bill even though the industry is slowing in line with Chinese economic growth.
"We are a long way from the prices we had in 2011," Murilo Ferreira, the chief executive
officer of Vale, the world's largest iron ore exporter and Brazil's biggest miner, was quoted
as saying in newspaper Valor Economico.
He said the bill represented a significant increase in royalties at a time when countries
overseas were lowering such duties on iron ore and nickel.
Even though Brazil had one of the largest reserves of mineral resources in the world,
between the four largest miners only Vale had significant investments in the country.
"There must be something wrong there," he said.
However, the top rate being proposed is only one-third of the basic rate being charged by
Australian states, Reuters reported.
The bill also does not include a windfall profits tax, a proposal that drove Canada's Kinross
Gold last week to abandon a project in Ecuador.
"For the past several months, the government has been signalling a more moderate stance
towards the sector," said Eurasia Group in a research note on the mining bill.
"This moderation is driven mainly by Brasilia's unease with weaker global market
conditions, which have exacerbated Vale's troubles and deepened the economic team's
concern with Brazil's deteriorating trade balance."
It warned, however, that the law could face turbulence in Congress, where politicians
representing mining and non mining states will seek to gain a higher share of the industries
royalties for their constituencies.
In a sign of a better than expected market reception for the bill, Vale shares closed up 2.46
per cent at R$29.10.
Les Echos (Frana) Fed: possible dclration du QE3
Karl De Meyer Bureau de New York
La Rserve fdrale maintient le rythme de ses achats dactifs 85 milliards par mois.
Wall Street a perdu 1,35% en clture.
Ben Bernanke sest livr hier lexercice de clarification attendu par les marchs. Au cours
de sa confrence de presse, il a expliqu que la Rserve fdrale pourrait : ralentir dici
la fin de lanne le rythme mensuel de ses achats de bons du Trsor et dactifs immobiliers
titriss, sous rserve que les donnes conomiques soient conformes nos prvisions et, si
60
les donnes restent alignes sur nos projections, ces achats pourraient se terminer mi-
2014. Le prsident de la banque centrale sest toutefois montr dune prudence de Sioux.
Soucieux de ne pas provoquer le mme moi que le mois dernier, quand il avait laiss
entendre un possible repli prcoce de lassouplissement quantitatif en cours, il a assur aux
foyers et aux entreprises que la politique montaire continuera soutenir la reprise,
mme au moment o la croissance et lemploi repartent . Il a rpt quun laps de temps
considrable scoulera entre la fin du QE et le relvement des taux directeurs, pas
attendu avant 2015.
En clair : la Fed pourrait de nouveau acclrer les rachats dactifs si besoin tait. Pour
linstant, la banque centrale va continuer son QE dans les mmes termes, a indiqu hier le
comit de politique montaire. Les achats de bons du Trsor et dactifs immobiliers titriss
se feront toujours au rythme de 85 milliards de dollars par mois.
Les marchs attendaient avec nervosit, hier, les dclarations de Ben Bernanke. Depuis un
mois, les investisseurs gambergent sur le calendrier et le rythme du repli du QE entam en
septembre dernier. En mai, devant le Congrs, le prsident de la Fed a sem le doute en
dclarant que le comit de politique montaire pourrait commencer ralentir le programme
dassouplissement quantitatif actuel au cours de ses prochaines runions .
Ben Bernanke ne rempilera pas
Depuis, les marchs sinquitent. Ils estiment que le fort rebond des marchs actions,
dbut 2013, est artificiellement gonfl par les politiques accommodantes menes par
toutes les grandes banques centrales. Si la Fed commence sortir de son QE, le cours des
actions risque de chuter. Les taux longs ont commenc remonter, aprs une longue
priode o ils ont t exceptionnellement bas. Ben Bernanke a rappel hier que, a priori, la
banque centrale ne vendrait pas les titres acquis ces dernires annes, pour des centaines
de milliards de dollars, mais les garderait dans son bilan jusqu leur maturit.
Barack Obama a en outre confirm cette semaine ce quon supputait depuis longtemps :
la fin de son second mandat, Ben Bernanke ne rempilera pas la tte de la Fed. Ben
Bernanke a fait un travail extraordinaire, a salu le prsident amricain sur la chane de
tlvision PBS, mais il est dj rest bien plus longtemps quil ne le voulait ou quil tait
suppos rester . Parmi les noms qui circulent pour lui succder, la favorite semble tre
Janet Yellen, actuelle vice-prsidente, une colombe qui privilgie, dans le double mandat de
la Fed, lemploi sur linflation. Sont aussi voqus Larry Summers et Tim Geithner, deux
anciens secrtaires au Trsor.
O!TROS TEMAS
The New York Times (EUA) U.S. Accuses 3 Countries of
Abetting Human Trafficking
By STEVEN LEE MYERS
The State Department on Wednesday accused Russia, China and Uzbekistan of continuing
to abet human trafficking and forced labor, raising the possibility that they could face
sanctions at a time when President Obama has tried to maintain relations with each on
strategic issues.
All three countries fell to the lowest ranking in the State Departments annual report on
trafficking, joining 16 other nations that the United States argues have failed to combat or
have been complicit in a practice estimated to claim as many as 27 million victims at any
given time.
61
Mr. Obama, who last year announced stronger measures against trafficking, including new
rules involving federal contracts overseas, now has up to 90 days to decide whether the
three will be subjected to sanctions that include an end to many forms of foreign aid and
the withholding of American support in institutions like the World Bank.
In the past, the White House has routinely waived potential sanctions for countries with
important strategic value to the United States, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Yemen,
which the latest report again cited for poor records on forced labor, child labor, prostitution
and, in Yemens case, the remnants of chattel slavery.
Countries clearly at odds with American policy - including Cuba and North Korea - have
been subject to sanctions.
A White House spokeswoman, Caitlin Hayden, would not comment on whether the
president would impose sanctions on Russia, China and Uzbekistan.
Advocacy groups welcomed the State Departments decision to downgrade the three, but
they also criticized what they described as inconsistent imposition of sanctions.
"The State Department has demonstrated that it is prepared to sanction even the most
powerful countries in the world if they dont meet the standards set out under U.S. law,
said John Sifton, the Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch. "The question for the
White House is whether theyre prepared to execute the sanctions.
World Vision, a Christian humanitarian group, noted that 10 countries are cited for
deploying child soldiers in the past year, and that seven of them received American military
aid, including Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan and
Yemen. The group also cited Syria, where the government and rebels have been accused of
using children in their ranks; the administration recently announced that it would begin to
arm the rebels, though only after careful vetting.
The State Departments rankings are required by law, and a recent amendment by
Congress forced the administrations hand in cases where countries were on a "watch list
for more than four consecutive years.
Russia and China had both been on the watch list since that category was introduced in
2004, and the report cited inconsistent laws and enforcement. In Russia, it said, an
estimated one million people are subjected to forced labor in many industries, including
construction, with the complicity of officials. Uzbekistan, the report said, routinely forces
thousands of adults and children to join in the autumn cotton harvest.
David Abramowitz, director of the Alliance to End Slavery and Trafficking, said that even
without sanctions, the reports rankings had an impact on countries. "I wouldnt
underestimate the stigma, he said.
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