Tasa de

Ventas Tasa de Error (% de

Años Crecimiento 3 Pronostico
(miles) Crecimiento las ventas)
años
2002 21.6 0%
2003 22.9 6.02%
2004 25.5 11.35%
2005 21.9 -14.12% 0.46%
2006 23.9 9.13% 1.43% 22.00 -7.95%
2007 27.5 15.06% 2.55% 24.24 -11.84%
2008 31.5 14.55% 12.88% 28.20 -10.47%
Evento Exogeno 2009 29.7 -5.71% 7.51% 35.56 19.72%
Evento Exogeno 2010 28.6 -3.70% 1.32% 31.93 11.65%
2011 31.4 9.79% -0.11% 28.98 -7.72%
2012 32.6 3.82% 3.15% 31.37 -3.78%
2013 35.1 7.67% 7.06% 33.63 -4.19%
2014 36.2 3.13% 4.86% 37.58 3.81%
2015 36.9 1.93% 4.22% 37.96 2.87%
2016 37.1 0.54% 1.86% 38.46 3.65%
2017 38.1 2.70% 1.72% 37.79 -0.81%
2018 38.9 2.10% 1.77% 38.76 -0.37%
2019 39.3 1.03% 1.94% 39.59 0.74%
2020 38.7 -1.53% 0.52% 40.06 3.52%
2021 39.4 1.81% 0.43% 38.90 -1.26%
2022 39.56809 39.57 0.00%
0.004266
Retiramos meses atípicos, verificamos la estacionalidad de los meses y verificamos la desviación del promedio de lo
desviación del promedio de los últimos 6 meses respecto al promedio de los últimos 2 años
 Ventas
Años
(miles) PronosticoError
2002 21.6 22.1578 2.58% Chart Title
2003 22.9 23.1867 1.25% 45
2004 25.5 24.2156 -5.04% 40 f(x) = 1.02887218045113 x − 2037.73639097744
R² = 0.934335259460312
2005 21.9 25.2445 15.27%
35
2006 23.9 26.2734 9.93%
30
2007 27.5 27.3023 -0.72%
2008 31.5 28.3312 -10.06% 25

2009 29.7 29.3601 -1.14% 20

2010 28.6 30.389 6.26% 15
2011 31.4 31.4179 0.06% 10
2012 32.6 32.4468 -0.47%
5
2013 35.1 33.4757 -4.63%
0
2014 36.2 34.5046 -4.68% 2000 2005 2010 2015
2015 36.9 35.5335 -3.70%
2016 37.1 36.5624 -1.45% (Ventas) = 1.0289 (Año) - 2037.7
2017 38.1 37.5913 -1.34%
2018 38.9 38.6202 -0.72%
2019 39.3 39.6491 0.89%
2020 38.7 40.678 5.11%
2021 39.4 41.7069 5.86%
2022 42.7358
2023 43.7647
 Chart Title

13 x − 2037.73639097744
12

2010 2015 2020 2025

= 1.0289 (Año) - 2037.7

 PBI Ventas
2005 6.60% 6%
2006 7.80% 5.40%
2007 8.10% 4.70%
2008 6.10% 1.90%
2009 0.10% -1.30% Chart Title
2010 3.50% 3.20% 10%
2011 6.00% 5.40% 8%
2012 6.30% 4.70% f(x) = 0.579655397582988 x + 0.0095644331441
R² = 0.877894042960966 6%
2013 6.50% 5.10%
4%
2014 2.40% 3.10%
2%
2015 2.30% 3.00%
2016 3.10% 3.05% 0%
-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00%
2017 2.50% 2.90% -2%

2018 2.90% 3.10% -4%

2019 3.10% 3.20% -6%
2020 -11.00% -5.40% -8%
2021 12.00% 7.80%
2022 4.00% 3.28% (Ventas)= 0.5797(año) + 0.0096
2023 5.00% 3.86%
 Chart Title
10%

8%
655397582988 x + 0.00956443314416582
94042960966 6%

4%

2%

0%
-5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%
-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

0.5797(año) + 0.0096 (Cambiar la ecuacion cada año)

 Ventas PBI Tasa de interés SUMMARY OUTPUT
2005 4.00% 7.00% 15.80%
2006 5.40% 7.80% 16.80% Regression Statistics
2007 6.10% 8.10% 13.00% Multiple R 0.971064119
2008 4.30% 6.10% 14.20% R Square 0.9429655231
2009 -2.00% 0.10% 17.60% Adjusted R Square 0.9348177407
2010 2.20% 3.50% 15.60% Standard Error 0.0072947027
2011 4.20% 6.00% 14.60% Observations 17
2012 4.80% 6.30% 14.00%
2013 5.10% 6.50% 13.60% ANOVA
2014 2.00% 2.40% 15.10% df
2015 2.10% 2.30% 15.20% Regression 2
2016 2.00% 3.10% 16.00% Residual 14
2017 1.80% 2.50% 16.10% Total 16
2018 1.70% 2.90% 18.00%
2019 2.10% 3.10% 15.00% Coefficients
2020 -4.90% -11.00% 13.00% Intercept 0.0611004403
2021 6.10% 12.00% 14.00% X Variable 1 0.5597431147
2022 2.43% 4.00% 16.00% X Variable 2 -0.3700508557
2023 2.25% 5.00% 18.00%
2024 (Ventas) = 0.0611 + 0.5597 (%PBI) - 0.37 (Tasa de Inter
 SS MS F Significance F
0.012316904726 0.0061584524 115.73278174 1.9631896E-09
0.000744977627 5.3212688E-05
0.013061882353

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.01896166629 3.2223138688 0.0061418206 0.02043171082 0.1017691697 0.0204317108 0.1017691697
0.037668212937 14.859826657 5.762251E-10 0.47895283305 0.6405333964 0.478952833 0.6405333964
0.123995427916 -2.9843911337 0.0098515741 -0.6359945988 -0.1041071125 -0.6359945988 -0.1041071125

7 (%PBI) - 0.37 (Tasa de Interes)