Cenário - Longo Prazo

Tabela de projeções macroeconômicas

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026*
ATIVIDADE
Crescimento Real do PIB (% aa.) -3.55 -3.28 1.32 1.78 1.22 -3.88 4.62 2.25 0.01 1.99 1.50 1.50
Agropecuária (%) 3.32 -5.22 14.15 1.31 0.42 3.75 -0.20 1.54 2.01 2.96 2.96 2.96
Indústria (%) -5.76 -4.57 -0.50 0.72 -0.67 -3.40 4.48 0.47 -0.86 1.52 1.52 1.52
Serviços (%) -2.73 -2.22 0.77 2.09 1.51 -4.34 4.72 3.43 -0.03 1.94 1.94 1.94
PIB Nominal (R$ bilhões) 5,995.8 6,269.3 6,585.5 7,004.1 7,389.1 7,467.6 8,679.5 9,719.2 10,650.2 11,572.9 12,240.5 12,946.5
População - milhões 203.48 205.17 206.83 208.47 210.08 211.65 213.19 214.68 216.12 217.51 218.84 220.11
PIB per capita - R$ 29,465.9 30,557.5 31,840.2 33,598.2 35,173.4 35,282.5 40,712.8 45,272.8 49,278.0 53,205.4 55,932.1 58,817.8
Vendas no varejo - Restrita (%) -4.35 -6.24 2.09 2.32 1.84 1.18 1.40 3.70 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30
Produção Industrial (%) -8.26 -6.43 2.52 0.96 -1.08 -4.45 3.93 0.09 1.97 0.50 0.50 0.50
Taxa de desemprego (% - média) - Pnad Contínua 8.65 11.64 12.85 12.39 11.99 13.76 13.23 9.25 9.96 8.15 7.66 7.58
Taxa de Crescimento da Massa Salarial - IBGE (%) -3.80 -1.73 3.88 2.74 2.55 -6.41 -2.05 5.42 1.62 4.49 4.41 4.43
Rendimento médio real - IBGE (%) -3.18 0.66 1.56 1.30 0.42 2.49 -10.77 0.30 0.79 2.94 3.41 3.56
INFLAÇÃO E JUROS
IPCA (IBGE) - % aa. 10.67 6.29 2.95 3.75 4.31 4.52 10.06 7.07 4.90 3.00 3.00 3.00
IGP-M (FGV) - % aa. 10.54 7.17 -0.52 7.54 7.30 23.14 17.78 10.53 4.60 3.50 3.50 3.50
Taxa Selic Meta (% aa.) 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 4.50 2.00 9.25 13.75 11.75 7.50 7.50 7.50
CDI (% aa.) - Taxa dezembro 14.14 13.63 6.99 6.40 4.59 1.90 8.76 13.65 11.77 7.40 7.40 7.40
Taxa Selic nominal (acumulado 12 meses) % 13.29 14.03 9.96 6.42 5.95 2.75 4.44 12.39 13.03 9.42 7.43 7.34
Taxa Selic real / IPCA (acumulado 12 meses) % 2.36 7.28 6.81 2.58 1.57 -1.69 -5.11 4.98 7.75 6.24 4.30 4.21
Taxa Selic real / IGP-M (acumulado 12 meses) % 2.48 6.40 10.53 -1.04 -1.27 -16.55 -11.33 1.69 8.05 5.72 3.79 3.70
TJLP (% aa.) - acumulado no ano 6.25 7.50 7.12 6.72 6.20 4.87 4.80 6.55 5.77 5.50 6.15 6.37
EXTERNO E CÂMBIO
Câmbio (R$/US$) - (Média Ano) 3.33 3.49 3.19 3.65 3.94 5.15 5.39 5.17 5.25 5.33 5.38 5.44
Câmbio (R$/US$) - (Final de período) 3.90 3.26 3.31 3.87 4.03 5.20 5.65 5.25 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.41
Exportações (em US$ Bilhões) 189.91 184.27 218.00 239.52 225.80 210.71 283.83 327.57 298.54 287.19 301.55 316.63
Importações (em US$ Bilhões) 172.47 139.72 160.68 196.15 199.25 178.34 247.65 261.23 238.46 238.39 250.31 262.83
Balança Comercial (em US$ Bilhões) 17.44 44.54 57.33 43.37 26.55 32.37 36.18 66.34 60.08 48.80 51.24 53.81
Saldo em Trans. Correntes (% do PIB) -3.0 -1.4 -1.1 -2.7 -3.5 -1.7 -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9
Saldo em Trans. Correntes (US$ bilhões) -54.79 -24.48 -22.03 -51.46 -65.03 -24.49 -28.11 -21.15 -32.76 -41.04 -43.09 -45.25
Reservas Internacionais (em US$ bilhões) 368.74 372.22 381.97 386.96 356.88 355.62 362.02 368.54 375.17 381.92 388.80 392.63
Investimento Direto no País (em US$ bilhões) 64.74 74.29 68.89 78.16 69.17 37.79 53.30 69.49 71.02 65.86 67.84 69.87
Resultado Primário (% do PIB) - Fim do período -1.86 -2.48 -1.68 -1.55 -0.84 -9.41 0.75 0.02 -0.49 -0.47 0.05 0.44
Déficit nominal sem câmbio (% PIB) 10.22 8.98 7.77 6.96 5.81 13.60 4.42 6.44 7.72 6.35 5.59 5.21
Dívida bruta (% PIB) 65.50 69.84 73.72 75.27 74.44 88.59 80.27 79.95 83.68 86.36 88.60 90.51
Taxa de Câmbio - US$/Euro - Fim do Período 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.22 1.14 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.16
Taxa de Câmbio - US$/Euro - Média ano 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.07 1.09 1.13 1.15 1.16
Taxa de Câmbio - R$/Euro - Fim do Período 4.24 3.43 3.97 4.44 4.52 6.35 6.42 5.62 5.83 6.04 6.16 6.27
Taxa de Câmbio - R$/Euro - Média ano 3.68 3.87 3.63 4.30 4.41 5.90 6.36 5.54 5.74 6.01 6.17 6.28
CRÉDITO
Crédito Geral (Cresc. em % aa.) 7.03 -3.46 -0.40 5.14 6.43 15.60 16.32 10.79 7.51 10.06 9.52 9.80
Índice de Inadimplência Pessoa Física (em %) 6.18 6.05 5.23 4.80 5.01 4.16 4.37 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
Índice de Inadimplência Pessoa Jurídica (em %) 4.42 5.17 4.52 2.73 2.12 1.45 1.52 2.30 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Crédito Livres total (Cresc. em % aa.) 4.19 -4.86 1.92 10.90 13.90 15.36 20.31 12.97 9.28 13.45 9.86 10.09

As projeções econômicas do Depec são reavaliadas mensalmente.

Em momentos de maior volatilidade, o grau de incerteza e a margem de erro se elevam, especialmente entre períodos de revisão. As projeções refletem a premissa de que os ajustes necessários
para a economia serão feitos nos próximos anos. Caso os ajustes não se confirmem, ou sejam ainda melhores do que o esperado, pode haver grande alteração nas projeções do cenário.

Última revisão: 29/07/2022

 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ACTIVITY
GDP (%) -3.55 -3.28 1.32 1.78 1.22 -3.88
Agriculture (%) 3.32 -5.22 14.15 1.31 0.42 3.75
Industry (%) -5.76 -4.57 -0.50 0.72 -0.67 -3.40
Services (%) -2.73 -2.22 0.77 2.09 1.51 -4.34
Nominal GDP (billion) 5,995.8 6,269.3 6,585.5 7,004.1 7,389.1 7,467.6
Population (million) 203.48 205.17 206.83 208.47 210.08 211.65
Per Capita GDP - R$ 29,465.9 30,557.5 31,840.2 33,598.2 35,173.4 35,282.5
Retail Sales - ex auto (%) -4.35 -6.24 2.09 2.32 1.84 1.18
Industrial Production - IBGE (%) -8.26 -6.43 2.52 0.96 -1.08 -4.45
Unemployment Rate - IBGE (%) 8.65 11.64 12.85 12.39 11.99 13.76
Wage Growth - IBGE (%) -3.80 -1.73 3.88 2.74 2.55 -6.41
Real wages average - IBGE (%) -3.18 0.66 1.56 1.30 0.42 2.49
INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES
CPI - IPCA - IBGE (%) 10.67 6.29 2.95 3.75 4.31 4.52
WPI - IGP-M - FGV (%) 10.54 7.17 -0.52 7.54 7.30 23.14
Nominal Interest Rates - Selic target (%) 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 4.50 2.00
CDI (%) - End of period 14.14 13.63 6.99 6.40 4.59 1.90
Nominal Interest Rates - Selic target (12-month - %) 13.29 14.03 9.96 6.42 5.95 2.75
Real Interest Rates / IPCA (12-month - %) 2.36 7.28 6.81 2.58 1.57 -1.69
Real Interest Rates / IGP-M (12-month - %) 2.48 6.40 10.53 -1.04 -1.27 -16.55
TJLP (%) 6.25 7.50 7.12 6.72 6.20 4.87
FISCAL, EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS AND FX
FX - yearly average (R$ / US$) 3.33 3.49 3.19 3.65 3.94 5.15
FX - end of period (R$ / US$) 3.90 3.26 3.31 3.87 4.03 5.20
Exports (US$ billion) 189.91 184.27 218.00 239.52 225.80 210.71
Imports (US$ billion) 172.47 139.72 160.68 196.15 199.25 178.34
Trade Balance (US$ billion) 17.44 44.54 57.33 43.37 26.55 32.37
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.04 -1.36 -1.07 -2.69 -3.47 -1.69
Current Account Balance (US$ billions) -54.79 -24.48 -22.03 -51.46 -65.03 -24.49
International Reserves (US$ billion) 368.74 372.22 381.97 386.96 356.88 355.62
Foreign Direct Investment (US$ billions) 64.74 74.29 68.89 78.16 69.17 37.79
Primary Surplus (% of GDP) -1.86 -2.48 -1.68 -1.55 -0.84 -9.41
Nominal Deficit (% of GDP) 10.22 8.98 7.77 6.96 5.81 13.60
Gross Public Debt (% of GDP) 65.50 69.84 73.72 75.27 74.44 88.59
FX - US$/Euro - end of period 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.22
FX - US$/Euro - yearly average 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.18 1.12 1.14
FX - R$/Euro - end of period 4.24 3.43 3.97 4.44 4.52 6.35
FX - R$/Euro - Early average 3.68 3.87 3.63 4.30 4.41 5.90
CREDIT
Total credit growth (%) 7.03 -3.46 -0.40 5.14 6.43 15.60
Household Delinquency rate (%) 6.18 6.05 5.23 4.80 5.01 4.16
Corporate Delinquency rate ( %) 4.42 5.17 4.52 2.73 2.12 1.45
Non-earmarked credit growth (%) 4.19 -4.86 1.92 10.90 13.90 15.36
Bradesco economic forecasts are reviewed each month.
At moments of greater volatility, the level of uncertainty and error margins naturally rise, especially between revisions. Our forecasts are
the adjustments necessary to ensure the sustainability of Brazil’s macroeconomic framework will be implemented over the next few year
materialize or are better than expected could imply in significant revisions to the scenario.

Last updated on: July 29th, 2022

 Long term forecasts

2021 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026*

4.62 2.25 0.01 1.99 1.50 1.50

-0.20 1.54 2.01 2.96 2.96 2.96
4.48 0.47 -0.86 1.52 1.52 1.52
4.72 3.43 -0.03 1.94 1.94 1.94
8,679.5 9,719.2 10,650.2 11,572.9 12,240.5 12,946.5
213.19 214.68 216.12 217.51 218.84 220.11
40,712.8 45,272.8 49,278.0 53,205.4 55,932.1 58,817.8
1.40 3.70 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30
3.93 0.09 1.97 0.50 0.50 0.50
13.23 9.25 9.96 8.15 7.66 7.58
-2.05 5.42 1.62 4.49 4.41 4.43
-10.77 0.30 0.79 2.94 3.41 3.56

10.06 7.07 4.90 3.00 3.00 3.00

17.78 10.53 4.60 3.50 3.50 3.50
9.25 13.75 11.75 7.50 7.50 7.50
8.76 13.65 11.77 7.40 7.40 7.40
4.44 12.39 13.03 9.42 7.43 7.34
-5.11 4.98 7.75 6.24 4.30 4.21
-11.33 1.69 8.05 5.72 3.79 3.70
4.80 6.55 5.77 5.50 6.15 6.37

5.39 5.17 5.25 5.33 5.38 5.44

5.65 5.25 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.41
283.83 327.57 298.54 287.19 301.55 316.63
247.65 261.23 238.46 238.39 250.31 262.83
36.18 66.34 60.08 48.80 51.24 53.81
-1.75 -1.13 -1.61 -1.89 -1.90 -1.90
-28.11 -21.15 -32.76 -41.04 -43.09 -45.25
362.02 368.54 375.17 381.92 388.80 392.63
53.30 69.49 71.02 65.86 67.84 69.87
0.75 0.02 -0.49 -0.47 0.05 0.44
4.42 6.44 7.72 6.35 5.59 5.21
80.27 79.95 83.68 86.36 88.60 90.51
1.14 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.16
1.18 1.07 1.09 1.13 1.15 1.16
6.42 5.62 5.83 6.04 6.16 6.27
6.36 5.54 5.74 6.01 6.17 6.28

16.32 10.79 7.51 10.06 9.52 9.80

4.37 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
1.52 2.30 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
20.31 12.97 9.28 13.45 9.86 10.09
ns. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that
ver the next few years. If these adjustments do not