Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
So Paulo
2016
Prof.
Dr.
Rodrigo
Franco
So Paulo
2016
DEDICATRIA
suportaram
todo
este
perodo
de
AGRADECIMENTOS
RESUMO
O objetivo deste trabalho a avaliao do impacto econmico da metrologia legal. Assim, a
pesquisa utiliza uma abordagem quantitativa baseada na formulao do modelo de insumoproduto. A formulao proposta considera todas as interconexes dos setores produtivos,
determinando como um desvio de medio em um produto impacta toda a economia. Um
desvio representa a mdia dos erros de medio dos instrumentos utilizados, na indstria e
comrcio, nos consumos intermedirios e na demanda final de produtos cujo valor baseado
em uma medio. Foram simulados os impactos em diferentes produtos-chave para a
economia brasileira nos setores de commodities, combustveis, minerao e servios de
utilidade. Tambm foram utilizados dados empricos de erros de medio no setor de
combustveis no Brasil para a determinao de dois tipos de desvios: erros associados
variao aleatria das medies e erros intencionais de carter sistemtico, tambm
denominados fraudes. Os dados so advindos do Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade
e Tecnologia Inmetro, rgo responsvel pela metrologia legal no pas, assim como dados da
matriz de insumo-produto brasileira elaborada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatstica IBGE. Os resultados mostram que, para o setor de utilidade, um erro mdio de
1% representa um impacto de US$ 995.679.155,81, significando 0,112% do PIB. Para o setor
de combustveis, o impacto mdio calculado foi de US$ 25.505.627,88. Para uma fraude, no
caso de etanol automotivo, com erro mdio de 10% na quantidade comercializada em 1% dos
instrumentos utilizados o valor calculado de US$ 303.734.309,35. Os resultados
demonstram o significativo impacto econmico dos erros de produtos cujo valor baseado
em medies. O mtodo proposto permite identificar os produtos que tm maior impacto
econmico e mostra-se como ferramenta para direcionar polticas na rea da metrologia e
contribuir para a competitividade da indstria e proteo ao consumidor.
Palavras-chave: metrologia legal; impacto econmico; regulamentao; insumo-produto;
Leontief.
ABSTRACT
The present research aims to evaluate the economic impact of the legal metrology. Then, a
quantitative approach based on the input-output model is conducted. The proposed
formulation considers the interconnections among the final demand and the productive
sectors, determining the aggregated impact of a measurement deviation on the economy.
These deviations represent the average error of the instruments used to trade goods which
value is based on a measurement. We simulated the impact of different key products to the
Brazilian economy, such as commodities, fuel, mining and utility services. Additionally we
used empirical data of measurement errors for the fuel market in order to determine the
impact of either deviations: errors due to random variations of measurements; systematic
intentional errors, also know as metrological frauds. The dataset is from the measurement
errors report in the fuel sector from the National Institute of Metrology, Quality and
Technology INMETRO, responsible for the legal metrology in Brazil, as well as the InputOutput matrices published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography IBGE. For the utility
services, the results show that a 1% average error would represent an impact of
US$ 995,679,155.81 representing 0.112% of the GDP. For the fuel market, the average
impact represents US$ 25,505,627.88. For an average metrological fraud of 10% in traded
volume of ethanol in 1% of the instruments in the market, the evaluated economic impact
represents US$ 303,734,309.35. The results show the significant impact of measurement
errors to the economy. The proposed method also permits to identify the most significant
products to the economy leading metrological policies to competitiveness of the industry and
to consumers protection.
Keywords: Legal metrology; economic impact; regulation; input-output; Leontief.
LISTA DE FIGURAS
Figura 1. Relacionamento das etapas deste trabalho com uma pesquisa de procedimentos
experimentais______________________________________________________________23
Figura 2. Constituio do objetivo geral por meio dos objetivos especficos e artigos e sees
de artigos elaborados que representam cada objetivo especfico da tese_________________25
Figuras: Artigo 1
Figure 1. Systematic search process for articles to be considered in the study___________29
Figure 2. Results of each step of the systematic process ____________________________31
Figuras: Artigo 2
Figure 1. Scilabe 5.5.2 code used to simulate the economic distortion_________________45
Figure 2. Measuring error distribution for gasoline fuel dispenser___________________ 45
Figure 3. Economic distortion curve for utility services____________________________46
Figure 4. Economic distortion curve for commodities_____________________________ 46
Figure 5. Economic distortion curve for automotive fuels__________________________ 46
Figure 6. Economic distortion curve for mining__________________________________47
Figure 7. Economic distortion for empirical data, CMC and MPE range______________48
Figuras: Artigo 3
Figure 1. Uncertainty evaluation for the economic distortion_______________________ 56
Figure 2. Process for replacing empirical measurement errors for simulated defraudes values
________________________________________________________________________57
Figure 3. Effect of metrological frauds on the economy according to the percentage of
fraudulent instruments______________________________________________________58
Figure 4. Economic distortion for a constant number of fraudulent devices and volume
variation_________________________________________________________________58
LISTA DE TABELAS
Tabelas: Artigo 1
Table 1. Strings used to search electronic databases_______________________________28
Table 2. Selection criteria for article inclusion and exclusion _______________________ 28
Table 3. Journals and electronic databases that were searched______________________ 28
Table 4. Selected studies by topic category___________________________________30 31
Table 5. Number of selected studies by category__________________________________ 31
Tabelas: Artigo 2
Table 1: Products simulated to compute the economic distortion_____________________45
Table 2: Average errors and standard deviation of fuels dispenser ___________________45
Table 3: Economic distortion for a measuring error of 1% impact on the GDP_________ 46
Table 4: Linear approaches for the curves in figures 2-5 __________________________ 47
Tabelas: Artigo 3
Table 1: The variation of the measurement uncertainty according to the percentage of
fraudulent devices for a 10% volume deviation__________________________________ 58
LISTA DE SIGLAS
AFRIMETS Intra-Africa Metrology System
ANP Agncia Nacional de Petrleo, Gs Natural e Biocombustveis
APLMF Asia Pacific Legal Metrology Forum
APMS Advances in Production Management Systems
BIPM Bureau International des Poids et Mesures
CAA Conformity Assessment Activities
CMC Capacidade de Medio e Calibrao
COOMET Euro-Asia Cooperation of Metrological National Institutions
EMLMF Euro-Mediterranean Legal Metrology Forum
EMP Erro Mximo Permitido
ERP Enterprise Resource Planning
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IBGE Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatstica
INMETRO Instituto Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia
IO Input-Output
IP Insumo-Produto
ISO International Organization for Standardization
JISM Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MAA Mutual Acceptance Arrangement
MID Measuring Instrument Directive
MMI Mapping Measurement Impact
MPE Maximum Permissible Error
NIST Nacional Institute of Standards and Technology
NMI National Metrology Institute
OIML International Organization of Legal Metrology
PIB Produto Interno Bruto
PLOA Projeto de Lei Oramentria Anual
P&D Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento
R&D Research and Development
SADCMEL Southern African Development Community in Legal Metrology
SC Subcommittee
SI Sistema Internacional de Unidades
SIM Inter-American Metrology System
SME Small and Medium Enterprise
TC Technical Committee
UE Unio Europeia
VIM International Vocabulary of Metrology Basic and General Concepts and Associated
Terms
VIML International Vocabulary of Terms in Legal Metrology
WELMEC European Cooperation in Legal Metrology
SUMRIO
1 INTRODUO ................................................................................................................ 13
1.1
1.2
Objetivos.................................................................................................................................. 15
1.3
Justificativa .............................................................................................................................. 16
1.4
7.2
REFERNCIAS ............................................................................................................... 64
13
INTRODUO
1.1
Contexto e problematizao
A metrologia definida como cincia das medies tem como objetivo prover
confiabilidade a uma determinada medida por meio de uma cadeia contnua e ininterrupta de
calibraes com erros e incertezas conhecidas, ou seja, rastreabilidade (VIM, 2012). Desta
forma, possvel transmitir uma informao por meio de um padro primrio e difundi-la,
neste caso uma medio, com erros e incertezas conhecidas, garantindo que o resultado final
seja rastreado ao padro primrio. A definio formal de medio e instrumento de medio
dada a seguir:
Medio: processo de obteno experimental de um ou mais valores que podem ser
razoavelmente atribudos a uma grandeza (VIM, 2012, p.16).
Instrumento de medio: dispositivo utilizado para realizar medies,
individualmente ou associado a um ou mais dispositivos suplementares (VIM, 2012,
p.34).
Desta forma, toda atividade de natureza metrolgica que alvo de algum tipo de ato
legal faz parte da metrologia legal, que em sua essncia a parte da metrologia responsvel
por garantir confiana economia e sociedade nos processos envolvendo pesos e medidas.
A metrologia legal tem um impacto significativo tanto na economia quanto na
sociedade, pois responsvel pela regulamentao de instrumentos de medio que so
utilizados no comrcio, indstria, sade e meio ambiente. O controle dos erros e incertezas de
medio influenciam diretamente na competitividade de um pas, ou seja, quanto menores os
desvios nas medies, menores sero as perdas (SANDERS, 2011). O impacto da metrologia
legal pode ser compreendido analisando-se os valores envolvidos em transaes baseadas em
pesos e medidas. Por exemplo, no Brasil, somente as transaes de importao e exportao
de petrleo e gs envolveram aproximadamente US$ 50,6 bilhes em 2012, correspondendo a
2,05% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) daquele ano (ANP, 2013; THE WORLD BANK,
14
15
1.2
Objetivos
O objetivo geral deste trabalho a avaliao do impacto da metrologia legal na
economia apoiada em uma formulao baseada no modelo de insumo-produto.
Para a realizao do objetivo geral, esta pesquisa foi dividida nos seguintes objetivos
especficos:
a) Contextualizar a pesquisa em relao ao estado da arte da metrologia legal,
caracterizando a relevncia e o ineditismo do trabalho;
16
1.3
Justificativa
As medies que envolvem o comrcio so consideradas de extrema importncia para
os pases. Os valores envolvidos nestas transaes, por meio de medies seguidas, agregam
importncias que representam uma parte significativa do PIB.
A distoro econmica, ou seja, o valor associado aos erros de medio em transaes
comerciais, o indicador que permite calcular o valor econmico das medies na economia,
todavia uma modelagem matemtica que permita a comparao entre pases ainda uma
questo em aberto nesta rea do conhecimento. A assimetria de mercado implica no
desconhecimento completo do produto que est sendo adquirido. Alm disso, a assimetria de
informao entre compradores e vendedores pode ocasionar uma falha de mercado (SWANN,
2009).
Uma vez que os impactos da metrologia e das tecnologias de medio no so bem
conhecidos, os oramentos destinados pesquisa nesta rea esto sob constante presso
(BOWNS et al., 2003). Alm disto, a sociedade e demais instituies demandam o uso
racional de recursos (STIEFEL, 1973) e, especificamente no Brasil, onde os oramentos para
a rea da metrologia representaram, em 2014, valores da ordem de R$ 651,5 milhes (PLOA,
2014), a medio dos benefcios providos pelas atividades de metrologia legal so muito
importantes.
1.4
17
Organizao do trabalho
No captulo 1 deste estudo aborda-se a contextualizao e a problematizao, os
objetivos e justificativas. Apresenta-se uma breve introduo sobre os conceitos fundamentais
de metrologia e metrologia legal, assim como os principais pontos relevantes da rea e suas
aplicaes. So discutidos ainda os aspectos que justificam a importncia da realizao do
trabalho e os objetivos a serem alcanados no final da pesquisa.
Em seguida, no captulo 2, realizada a reviso da literatura sobre metrologia legal,
com foco na medio de seus impactos econmicos. So referenciados os trabalhos relevantes
publicados na rea e um relatrio emitido pela Organizao Internacional de Metrologia Legal
(OIML), no qual os trabalhos referenciados no foram publicados, ou por conter dados de
interesse nacional, ou por tratarem-se de estudos realizados por consultorias.
A partir do captulo 3, no qual estabelecida a metodologia utilizada na pesquisa, esta
tese tratada em formato de artigos, na qual os captulos referentes aos resultados obtidos
para atender aos objetivos especficos propostos. Os artigos apresentados foram aprovados ou
submetidos a peridicos de circulao internacional. A metodologia por artigos tem a
vantagem de permitir uma avaliao por pares das etapas realizadas e apresenta os objetivos
especficos concludos do trabalho.
No captulo 4, que representa o primeiro objetivo especfico do estudo, realizada
uma reviso sistemtica da literatura na rea da metrologia legal, com foco no controle
metrolgico legal, que contextualiza a pesquisa em relao ao estado da arte na metrologia
legal e caracteriza a relevncia e o ineditismo do trabalho proposto.
No captulo 5 so abordados o segundo, terceiro e quarto objetivos especficos
propostos nessa pesquisa, por meio da apresentao de: formulao matemtica proposta
baseada no modelo IP (insumo-produto) para a determinao da distoro econmica;
resultados das simulaes realizadas para diferentes produtos de importncia significativa
para a economia brasileira, utilizando-se os dados da matriz IP do Brasil e resultados do
clculo da distoro econmica para o setor de combustveis automotivos no Brasil,
utilizando-se dados de relatrios de erros de medio dos instrumentos no setor, do Instituto
Nacional de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia INMETRO, o organismo responsvel pela
metrologia legal no Pas.
O captulo 6 aborda o quinto objetivo especfico do estudo, no qual discutido e
avaliado o impacto econmico advindo de desvios propositais nos instrumentos de medio
18
19
REVISO DA LITERATURA
A metrologia legal, assim como a medio, se confunde com a histria da
humanidade, com o estabelecimento de um sistema de padres de comprimento, massa e
volume pela dinastia Shang, na China h 3.500 anos (JURAN, 1995). Outro exemplo remonta
a 3.000 anos atrs quando o profeta Shoaaib, que vivia na Jordnia, pediu a seu povo para
no utilizar dois pesos e duas medidas, uma para comprar e outra para vender (MELHEM,
2009). Historicamente, o controle metrolgico foi iniciado para regular o comrcio de
alimentos e, posteriormente, devido difuso para a sociedade, o comrcio e a tecnologia do
mecanismo tornou-se um sistema para o controle da confiabilidade das medies (BIRCH,
2004a).
Kenneth Arrow, laureado Prmio Nobel de economia em 1972, estudou a confiana
nas relaes econmicas e estabeleceu que h sempre uma relao de confiana nas trocas
comerciais e que muito do atraso no desenvolvimento mundial se deve falta de confiana
mtua (ARROW, 1974). Nesse contexto, a Organizao Internacional de Metrologia Legal
(OIML) foi criada em 1955, com o propsito de harmonizar a estrutura de metrologia legal e
requisitos por meio de polticas e recomendaes internacionais, para facilitar o crescimento
do comrcio global e reconhecimento mtuo entre pases (BARKER, 2005).
Assim, apesar das questes envolvendo confiana nas relaes comerciais e os
instrumentos de medio, h sempre um erro associado inexatido dos equipamentos
utilizados e, consequentemente, um valor associado a este erro, que quando se refere a um
valor em unidade monetria , em geral, descrito como uma distoro econmica ou
assimetria de informao (STIEFEL, 1973).
Esta assimetria de informao, tambm interpretada como falta de conhecimento
acerca do produto comercializado, pode levar excluso do produto do mercado devido
ineficincia da sociedade para o fluxo de informao assimtrica (STIGLITZ, 2002).
Somando-se questo dos erros de medio, de carter aleatrio, h tambm os erros
de medio sistemticos de carter intencional, ou seja, com o objetivo de se obter vantagem
sobre um comprador, denominados fraudes, que acarretam perdas conhecidas como custo da
desonestidade (AKERLOF, 1970). A concorrncia internacional est conduzindo as
empresas a margens cada vez mais apertadas o que aumenta o risco de desonestidade
(KOCHSIEK e SCHULZ, 2004). Um exemplo o setor de combustveis no qual as fraudes
variam de 6% a 12% do volume comercializado (LEITO, VASCONCELLOS e
BRANDO, 2014).
20
21
22
23
METODOLOGIA
A pesquisa definida como um procedimento racional e sistemtico provendo
respostas aos problemas propostos (GIL, 2007). Desta forma, s h pesquisa quando h um
questionamento ou um problema a ser resolvido ou uma hiptese a ser testada. E, de forma a
se chegar a uma concluso ao tema estudado, aplica-se um mtodo, do grego methodos
(caminho para chegar a um fim) (GERHARDT e SILVEIRA, 2009), que permite a validao
da pesquisa assim como sua reprodutibilidade.
A abordagem da pesquisa deste trabalho quantitativa, por meio da medio e anlise
de dados referentes ao consumo intermedirio e demanda final na economia brasileira e aos
erros dos instrumentos de medio utilizados em campo, por meio de dados empricos.
Assim, para a sua construo foram aplicados os conceitos de pesquisa experimental, que
consiste na determinao do objeto de estudo, selecionar as variveis de influncia e
finalmente observar os efeitos que estas variveis produzem no fenmeno estudado (GIL,
2007). A Figura 1 relaciona os passos de uma pesquisa de procedimentos experimentais
relacionados com as etapas deste estudo.
Figura 1. Relacionamento das etapas deste estudo com uma pesquisa de procedimentos
experimentais
Pesquisa)de)procedimento)experimental)
Etapas)da)Pesquisa)
Determinao do objeto
de estudo
Determinao das
variveis de influncia,
formulao
Meios/Mtodos)
Distoro"Econmica;""
Modelo" de" InsumoD
Produto;"
Simulao/Variao" dos"
parmetros" " (desvio" x"
distoro);"
Anlise"dos"resultados;"
Dados"empricos;"
24
Esse estudo est organizado em formato de artigos, no qual cada resultado da pesquisa
realizada demonstrado por meio de um trabalho aprovado ou submetido a um peridico,
cuja relevncia na rea da metrologia demonstrada pelo fator de impacto e indexao do
peridico. Este tipo de formato permite demonstrar a significncia dos resultados de pesquisa
por meio da reviso de pares para publicao, que relacionada a um indicador de qualidade
por basear-se na experincia e conhecimento do avaliador (BRINN, JONES e
PENDLEBURY, 2000).
Inicialmente, para identificar de forma consistente os avanos e contribuies na rea
da metrologia legal, assim como consubstanciar de maneira robusta o estudo proposto, foi
realizada uma reviso sistemtica da literatura na rea. Este tipo de reviso permite
identificar, avaliar, interpretar e sintetizar os estudos relevantes (DING et al., 2014) para
construir uma pesquisa com bases slidas e consistentes. Identificou-se tambm no haver
estudos realizados por meio deste tipo de reviso na rea da metrologia legal e ainda que a
ltima reviso foi realizada em 2003 (BIRCH, 2003), o que representa uma lacuna de
aproximadamente 10 anos para o estado da arte sobre o tema.
Uma vez constitudo o referencial terico que justifica a realizao da pesquisa e
comprova o seu ineditismo, foi realizada a modelagem matemtica para a avaliao da
distoro econmica baseada no modelo de insumo-produto proposto pelo economista
Wassily Leontief (LEONTIEF, 1975). A abordagem por esta formulao se justifica por
tratar-se de um modelo econmico consolidado e amplamente utilizado.
Estabelecida a formulao matemtica foram utilizados os dados advindos das
matrizes nacionais de usos e recursos publicadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e
Estatstica (IBGE, 2008), que so a base para o clculo da matriz de insumo-produto
brasileira. A metodologia aplicada para a determinao destes dados normalizada pela
Organizao das Naes Unidas (ONU, 1999).
Para o clculo da distoro econmica no setor de combustveis foram utilizados
dados secundrios obtidos nos relatrios de erros de medio do Instituto Nacional de
Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia - INMETRO. Estes dados foram provenientes
diretamente do sistema de informao integrado (SILVA et al., 2014) do instituto para
consolidar as informaes das medies no comrcio e na indstria. Os resultados de ensaios
esto alinhados recomendao internacional estabelecida pela Organizao Internacional de
Metrologia Legal (OIML R118, 1995).
25
Objetivo Geral
Avaliao"do"impacto"da"metrologia"legal"na"economia"u<lizando"
formulao"baseado"no"Modelo"de"InsumoDProduto.
Obje%vos)Especcos))
1""Contextualizar"a"pesquisa"em"relao"ao"estado"da"arte"na"metrologia"legal," "caracterizando"a"
relevncia"e"o"inedi<smo"do"trabalho."
2" " Modelagem" matem<ca" a" par<r" do" Modelo" de" InsumoDProduto" para" a" medio" da" distoro"
econmica"proveniente"dos"erros"de"medio"dos"instrumentos"u<lizados"em"campo."
3""Simulao"da"distoro"econmica"com"base"na"modelagem"elaborada"u<lizando"a"matriz"insumoD
produto"brasileira."
4" " Medio" emprica" da" distoro" econmica" u<lizando" como" exemplo" o" setor" de" combusMveis"
automo<vos"no"Brasil,"u<lizando"relatrios"de"erros"de"medio"dos"instrumentos"em"campo"provenientes"
do"ins<tuto"nacional"de"metrologia"no"Brasil,"INMETRO.""
5""Avaliao"do"impacto"econmico"devido"a"fraudes"em"instrumentos"de"medio"u<lizando"como"exemplo"
o"setor"de"combusMveis"automo<vos"no"Brasil."
Artigos
Ar<go"1""Obj."1"
Captulo)4)+Legal)metrology,)the)economy)and)society:)A)systema;c)literature)review"
Sees"5"e"6"do"Ar<go"2""Obj."2"
Captulo)5)+)Formulao))
Seo"7.1"do"Ar<go"2""Obj."3"
Captulo)5))Simulando)a)distoro)econmica)
Seo"7.2"do"Ar<go"2""Obj."4"
Captulo)5)Medindo)a)distoro)econmica)
Ar<go"3""Obj."5"
Captulo)6))Distoro)econmica)devido)a)fraude)
26
ARTIGO 1 -
27
Measurement
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/measurement
a r t i c l e
Article history:
Received 7 October
Received in revised
Accepted 20 March
Available online 28
i n f o
2014
form 8 February 2015
2015
March 2015
Keywords:
Legal metrology
Developing countries
Measuring instrument
Legal metrological control
a b s t r a c t
This study carries out a literature review regarding legal metrological control and its
impact on society and the economy. A systematic, logical and consistent process has been
used to organize and extract the contributions of published academic studies in the field. A
systematic literature review process has also been shown to be an appropriate tool to
manage and organize the growing number of databases for articles and journals, allowing
the identification of relevant contributions.
A total of 59 studies were selected and categorized based on four different approaches:
the economy and society, international trade, legal metrological control, and metrology in
developing countries. The 59 selected articles are discussed in order to explore the state of
the art concerning legal metrology, with a focus on legal metrological control. On the basis
of these categories, open issues were also identified in order to suggest future studies in the
field.
! 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Legal metrology has a significant impact on society and
the economy, both in terms of regulating measuring
instruments to ensure consumer protection and because
it lowers measuring uncertainties in measurement instruments, which has consequences for countries national
competitiveness. Legal metrologys economic impact can
be easily understood by analyzing the money involved in
measurements. For example, Brazilian oil and gas imports
and exports alone were worth US$ 50.6 billion [1] in
2012. Similarly, as commodities move from point of
production to final sale they are measured multiple times
for a range of transactions, like sales, freight and taxes.
The aggregate values of these transactions exceed 50% of
Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 21 2679 9175.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2015.03.028
0263-2241/! 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
28
156
Table 1
Strings used to search electronic databases.
String
METROLOGY;
METROLOGY AND LEGAL METROLOGY;
METROLOGY AND LEGAL METROLOGY AND (ECONOMY OR
ECONOMIC);
METROLOGY AND LEGAL METROLOGY AND (ECONOMY OR
ECONOMIC) AND (SOCIETY OR SOCIAL);
Table 2
Selection criteria for article inclusion and exclusion.
Criteria
Inclusion
Exclusion
Table 3
Journals and electronic databases that were searched.
Journals and electronic database
ScienceDirect
Web of knowledge
Scopus
IOPScience
International organization of legal metrology bulletin
Acta IMEKO online journal
International measurement confederation world congress imeko
proceedings
International conference of metrology CAFMET proceedings
International symposium of metrology proceedings
International congress of metrology proceedings
29
157
Fig. 1. Systematic search process for articles to be considered in the study, adapted from [20].
part in this game, especially because regulation is necessary in some areas to guarantee accurate measures. The
relationship between the state and legal metrology can
be therefore defined as symbiotic [5]: legal metrology
needs the state to regulate, and the state needs accurate
measurement to organize, plan, defend and tax efficiently.
Compared to scientific metrology, the consumer protection
aspects of legal metrology are realized through
verifications based on consumer protection requirements,
as compared to calibration [51].
An important example of the social impact of legal
metrology is the reduction of deaths and injuries from
accidents due to speed cameras [6]. To give another
example, there are taxes based on measurements. Thus, the
governments regulation of measurement instruments used
in trade in order to provide confidence in measurements that
affect society and the economy is more cost-effective than
de-regulating the instruments [52]. In essence, a solid
metrology system is vital to the economy [16].
The International Organization of Legal Metrology
(OIML) was created with the purpose of harmonizing legal
metrological structures and requirements through policy
and recommendations, facilitating the growth of the global
market and mutual acceptance among countries [3], and
promoting social and economic welfare. The OIML uses
Technical Committees (TC) and Subcommittees (SC) to
build consensus in legal metrology issues among its
members [61]. OIML and the International Organization
for Standardization are also considered as standardizing
bodies in the sense of the Technical Barrier to Trade
Agreement of the World Trade Organization [27]. The
harmonization of international standards and procedures
is an effective tool for reducing asymmetries in international trade scenarios [58].
Environmental issues form another relevant aspect of
legal metrology. Concerns about the unsustainable current
30
158
Table 4
Selected studies by topic category.
Selected study
Economy
and
society
International
trade
Legal
metrological
control
Legal metrology in
developing
countries
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
31
159
Economy
and
society
Table 5
Number of selected studies by category.
Category
Number of studies
11
09
18
21
International
trade
Legal
metrological
control
Legal metrology in
developing
countries
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
32
160
33
161
In Cuba, legal metrology has been characterized by indicators measuring its scientific, technological, economic,
social and environmental impact [44]. The impact of legal
metrology was further shown by case studies [46], and
the industrial perspective on legal metrology was shown
by studies of small and medium size enterprises (SME).
These studies concluded that the lack of knowledge about
the importance of measurements is a cause for concern
[47].
In the Americas, the Inter-American Metrology System
(SIM) was established with the purpose of building and
supporting a metrological structure, facilitating international trade and ensuring uniformity of measurements
[36]. The SIM has allowed the exchange of expertise and
materials between countries with developed legal metrology systems and countries lacking such services. SIMs
main activity has been training activities, demand for
which is expected to be high once legal metrology
structures have been implanted and begin to expand
among members [55]. In South America, the Metrology
Committee of Mercosul works on harmonizing legislation
to be incorporated into member states legislation [38].
Additionally, as a response to provide qualified human
resources, Brazil has created an executive masters degree
that covers legal metrology [48].
In Europe, although Romania is a developing country,
its standardization efforts in the field of electrical energy
measurements have been studied as a result of new
legislation aiming at providing consumer protections that
are compliant with the requirements of the European
Union [26]. Romanian manufacturers are committed to
complying with European directives, aligning their
products to the EU market and increasing Romanias competitiveness in Europe [14].
Slovenia, another member of the EU, follows the EUs
legal metrology system, and has assigned the outsourcing
of verifications to designated bodies that performed more
than 90% of verification in 2008. The national requirements
for these bodies are providing adequate support to the
national economy; the ability to evaluate both the private
and public sectors; and possessing the infrastructure for
verification and adequate metrological supervision [63].
Like Romania, Ukraine is working to harmonize its legal
metrology system within the European Directive on
Measuring Instruments in order to ensure a free trade
relationship in the European Union [60].
Jordan is an example of a developing country implanting legal metrological controls while facing limited
resources, a small number of industries, and limited
metrology knowledge and equipment [39]. The role of
the Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology (JISM)
is to ensure that only safe, good quality products enter
the market. Despite its limitations, Jordan has 14 types of
measurement instruments under legal control as well as
prepackaged products.
In 2008, Russia adopted a new metrology law establishing the basis for a metrology system that protects citizens
and assists national economic development [33].
In Asia, Thailand has German support to develop a
national legal metrology system. Its actual infrastructure
comprises five verification offices where 160 officers and
34
162
160 assistants inspect scales, fuel dispensers, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), medical measurement units, humidity
meters and prepackaged products [29].
India selected Germany as a model to implement the
privatization of some legal metrology activities in both initial and subsequent verification and type approval due to
public sector difficulties in following the growing
responsibilities of legal metrology. India has established
several criteria for the delegated private bodies, including
organizational independence, financial independence, professional integrity, technical competency, staff qualification, impartiality, insurance coverage, and professional
secrecy. However, the overall responsibility for ensuring
reliable legal metrology services remains with the government [30]. Ultimately, the authorities plan to incorporate
the European Measuring Instrument Directive in the
Indian implementation of legal metrology [31].
In Africa, measurement systems do not fulfill the
requirements of an effective measuring system, especially
those based on colonial measurements that operate in an
isolated manner. However, the increasing concern for the
importance of legal metrology to society and the economy
has led Africa, with German support, to create the SIMbased Intra-Africa Metrology System (AFRIMETS) [64] in
order to harmonize measurements in Africa [15], based
on the harmonization of regulations among countries [37].
It is evident that over the last decade, developing countries have begun implementing legal metrology systems
and recognizing the importance of metrology to their
economies and consumer protection. Agreements among
countries, both developed and developing, facilitate the
exchange of experiences. The SIM in the Americas, the
WELMEC in Europe and the AFRIMETS in Africa are examples of success. Other agreements that are active but were
not discussed in sample articles include the Asia Pacific
Legal Metrology Forum (APLMF), Southern African development Community Cooperation in Legal Metrology
(SADCMEL), Euro-Asia Cooperation of Metrological
National Institutions (COOMET), Euro-Mediterranean
Legal Metrology Forum (EMLMF), that are regional congregations of countries that aim to implement and improve
legal metrology activities, leading to cooperation among
countries that facilitates trade and the dissemination of
metrology knowledge in training sessions.
4. Conclusions
The systematic literature review process allows us to
identify relevant studies in a field of knowledge through
the use of a consolidated search methodology. Legal
metrological control comprises the activities in legal
metrology that are responsible for providing confidence
in measurements that impact both society and the economy; this study has presented the relevant contributions
to this field over the last 10 years.
A systematic search methodology allowed us to identify
59 studies that were published in journals or proceedings
that discuss advances in legal metrology. These selected
studies were categorized in four groups: economy and
society, international trade, legal metrological control and
35
163
36
O objetivo deste captulo atender aos objetivos especficos dois, trs e quatro deste
trabalho. O artigo foi submetido revista Measurement - Journal of the Measurement
Confederation e est atualmente sob reviso.
O artigo apresenta a formulao matemtica baseada no modelo de insumo-produto
para o clculo da distoro econmica. O modelo esttico de IP relaciona a produo
industrial com a demanda final, por meio da matriz inversa de Leontief. O modelo permite
identificar como a variao de um insumo em um determinado processo, ou uma alterao na
demanda final, impacta toda a economia. O modelo considera que o produto de um processo
o insumo de outro e avalia todas as interconexes entre processos produtivos em uma
economia.
A formulao matemtica proposta para o clculo da distoro econmica introduz um
fator , que representa um desvio devido medio de um determinado produto no modelo
IP, e possibilita determinar como este desvio afeta toda a produo. Desta forma possvel
identificar o impacto de um desvio de medio que se propaga pela economia devido s
interconexes dos processos de produo e demanda final, alm de avaliar financeiramente o
impacto do erro de medio de um produto na economia, uma vez que as matrizes de insumoproduto so representadas em valores monetrios.
Foram realizadas simulaes utilizando produtos-chave na economia brasileira. Para a
realizao das simulaes do clculo de distoro econmica nos setores de commodities,
combustveis, minerao e servios de utilidade pblica (gua, gs e esgoto) foi utilizado
como suporte o software Scilab, verso 5.5.2. A programao da rotina de simulao tambm
apresentada no artigo para o qual foram utilizados os dados da mais recente matriz IP
brasileira, divulgada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatstica, em 2005. Os erros de
medio simulados () variaram de 0,01% at 5% de forma a se obter o comportamento da
distoro econmica para cada produto simulado.
Em seguida foi realizado o clculo da distoro econmica com dados empricos de
erros dos instrumentos de medio no setor de combustveis automotivos no Brasil, advindos
de verificaes realizadas nestes instrumentos pelo INMETRO no ano de 2014. Para a
simulao foi utilizado o erro mdio de medio no setor e ao erro foi associado o desviopadro como indicador para incerteza da medio. Ressalta-se que para esse caso emprico a
escala de medio de erro para o setor de combustvel varia de valores negativos a positivos,
37
gerando uma compensao de valores que leva mdia aritmtica () prxima de zero e um
desvio-padro () superior mdia, sendo: = 7.99 ml e = 45,99 ml para gasolina; =
4,22 ml e = 40,83 ml para etanol; = 6,68 ml e = 49,52 ml para diesel. No caso, um erro
positivo significa perda do consumidor na transao comercial e valores negativos perda do
vendedor.
Para permitir comparaes foram simulados os valores de distoro econmica para a
Capacidade de Medio e Calibrao (CMC), que representa a melhor medio possvel a ser
realizada no pas para a grandeza volume. Como este valor realizado em condies
laboratoriais controladas e usa padres de medio com incertezas muito inferiores aos
utilizados em campo, o valor apenas uma referncia terica para comparao. Tambm
apresentado o clculo de simulao com os valores dos erros mximos permitidos (EMP) para
o setor, de forma a identificar, segundo as normas internacionais, os valores em unidade
monetria admitidos como perdas no setor.
Os resultados mostram que dentre os produtos simulados, o maior impacto econmico
registrado no setor de utilidades (gua, energia, gs e esgoto), no qual um desvio de 1%
ocasiona uma distoro econmica de US$ 995.679.155,81 que representa 0,112% do PIB.
Tambm foi observado um comportamento linear da distoro econmica em funo do erro
de medio, sendo R2 = 0,999 para todos os produtos simulados.
Para o setor de combustveis automotivos (gasolina, etanol e diesel), a simulao
mostra uma distoro econmica no setor de US$ (25.505.627,88 + 190.307.948,09). Esse
resultado representa que h uma incerteza no setor de combustveis variando de
US$ -164.802.320,21 a +215.813.575,97. Assim, no possvel concluir, com base no
estimador de incerteza de medio utilizado, se o impacto na economia contra ou a favor do
consumidor. Os valores apresentados pelos erros mximos permitidos no setor variam de
US$ -414.376.810,01 a +414.376.810,01. Portanto, pode-se concluir que o setor de
combustveis no Brasil est adequado, conforme os EMP de acordo com as recomendaes
internacionais, uma vez que o valor de distoro econmica inferior ao calculado para o
EMP. Finalmente, a incerteza de medio associada CMC apresenta uma distoro econmica
de US$ 8.280.768,82, sendo aproximadamente vinte vezes inferior apresentada em campo.
Este resultado inferior esperado, uma vez que as medies para o clculo da CMC so
realizadas em condies laboratoriais controladas, diferentemente da medio de combustvel
no mercado.
38
39
National Institute of Metrology, Quality and Technology, Legal Metrology Directory, Nossa Senhora das
Graas Av., 50 Xerm - Duque de Caxias RJ, ZIP Code: 25250-020, Brazil
b
Paulista University, Industrial Engineering Department, Dr. Bacelar St., 1212, 4th floor Vila Clementino
So Paulo SP ZIP Code: 04026-002, Brazil
Corresponding Author: Bruno A. Rodrigues Filho (+55)-21-2679-9175, bafilho@inmetro.gov.br
Abstract: The present study proposes a Leontief Input-Output based model to identify the impact of the
deviations in measuring instruments used in trade over the various sectors on the economy. The Brazilian inputoutput matrix is used in order to evaluate how a measurement deviation propagates throughout the different
sectors affecting the whole economy. Simulations are conducted using strategy sector of the economy for
products that have their value based on a measure: utility services (water, gas, electricity and sewer), fuel,
commodities and mining, showing that a distortion of 1% in utility services would represent
US$ 995,679,155.81 meaning 0.112% of the Brazilian GDP. A case test where conducted combining the
proposed model and the measurement errors from the reports of the Brazilian National Metrology Institute for
the fuel sector. The present model has also shown to be a usable tool to determine which areas demand attention
for regulation in metrology, in order to maintain under control their impacts on economy.
Keywords: Legal Metrology, Asymmetry, Leontief, Regulation
1. Introduction
The commerce involving weights and measures is
responsible for a significant part of the countries
GDP. Deviations provided by aggregate value of
measures along a product chain may cause expressive
distortions to the economy. The monetary unit
associated to this market asymmetry implies financial
losses to the economy. Studies conducted by various
nations have demonstrated the relevance of products
with value based on measures in both local and
global markets (Birch, 2003 and Sanders, 2011and
Swann, 2009).
It was realized very early in the human history the
importance of the social and economic consequences
of trade involving weights and measures, as an
example in China 3500 year ago where a system of
mass, length and capacity was in use to control the
market (Juran, 1995) and in Jordan, 3000 year ago
where the prophet Shoaaib demanded to his people
not use double weights standards (Melhem, 2009).
Legal metrology is responsible for apply
regulations to measuring instruments that impact both
economy and society (VIM, 2012), establishing
requirement, as maximum permissible errors, in order
to provide the necessary accuracy for fair exchange,
maintaining the distortion of what is being negotiated
to acceptable levels, arising the confidence on the
market (Birch, 2004).
40
2. Literature review
Kenneth Arrow, laureate Nobel Prize in 1972 in
economic science has contributed extensively
studying the trust in economic transactions, and
stated that there is always an element of trust in
commercial transactions, and complement that much
of backwardness in the world regards the lack of
mutual confidence (Arrow, 1974).
In commercial transactions involving measuring
instruments an addition component is always present,
despite trust: an error associated to the accuracy of
the device and consequently a monetary value is
associated to this deviation. These errors are higher
as the instrument is less accurate. This value, in
monetary unit, is described as an economic distortion,
or asymmetry of information.
This asymmetry of the market, also understood as
a lack of knowledge of good quality products in a
given market may lead their exclusion due to societal
inefficiency to asymmetric information flow (Stiglitz,
2002). An economic approach connects the
measurement deviations to an amount in monetary
units, where this money in risk can be treated as lack
of information about the product.
In 2001, a study of this distortion was laureate
with the Nobel Prize in economic science, where the
authors, Akerlof, Spence, Rothschild and Stiglitz
investigated how distortions affect social and
economic institutions (Akerlof, 1970 and Spence,
1973 and Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976).
However, in metrology the authors agree that the
literature on the economics is very sparse (Bowns et
al., 2003 and Swann, 2009). Additionally, many
studies are conducted by national institutes
considering national strategic aspects and they are not
published.
In the metrology field, Stiefel (1973) presented
the importance of the impact of the money related to
the measurement deviation in a instrument. His work
proposed a statistical analysis to calculate the
monetary value of device inaccuracies using the
quantity of goods traded and the average of
measurement errors of instruments used in the market.
Despite the efforts his work underestimates this
distortion once it considers only errors higher of
instruments used in the market that are higher than a
maximum permissible error. However, the goal of his
article is to use empirical data to compute the
economy distortion.
In# 2000 a study explores the benefits of R&D of
metrology aiming to justifying the budgetary
41
42
43
(1)
!=!
(2)
(3)
! = !. !
(4)
(5)
! = !. !
(6)
!!
. !. !
(7)
!=
!!
(8)
!!!
44
(9)
! ! .!
! !!
!!!
!! . ! = ! ! . ! =
!!"
!!!
!!!
!!!
!! . !!! !! . !!!
!!!
!!"
!!!
!!!
!! . !!"
!!!
!!
!!
!! . ! = ! = !
!! . !!
!!
!!
. !. !
(11)
(12)
! =
!!
!" =
(!! !! )
(14)
!!!
(10)
(13)
!!!
45
Commodities
Wheat
Coffee
Soy
Corn
Fuel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Diesel
-
Mining
Coal
Iron
-
Utility
Water,
electricity,
gas
and
sewer
distortion
using
the
k-th
Fuel dispenser
CMC*
(%)
Gasoline
Ethanol
7.99
4.22
45.99
40.83
0.01
0.01
Diesel
6.68
49.52
0.01
46
1,000.00#
900.00#
800.00#
Wheat#
Soy#
Corn#
Coe#
700.00#
Product
Economic
distortion
produced by a deviation of
1% (US$)
GDP*
impact (%)
Wheat
13,510,390.91
0.002
Coffee
57,066,236.60
0.006
Soy
181,463,310.12
0.020
Corn
78,240,769.86
0.009
Gasoline
176,456,179.78
0.020
Ethanol
268,911,116.33
0.030
Diesel
383,029,747.51
0.043
Coal
95,617,934.81
0.011
Iron
196,439,530.91
0.022
Water,
electricity,
and sewer
995,679,155.81
0.112
0.00#
0.00%#
1.00%#
2.00%#
3.00%#
4.00%#
5.00%#
6.00%#
Measuring$Error$
Figure 4:
commodities.
Economic
distortion
curve
for
Million$
gas
2,500.00#
2,000.00#
300.00#
100.00#
6,000.00#
U-lity#2#Water,#Gas,#Eletricity,#Sewer#
Gasoline#
Ethanol#
Diesel#
1,500.00#
1,000.00#
500.00#
0.00#
0.00%#
1.00%#
2.00%#
3.00%#
4.00%#
5.00%#
6.00%#
Measuring$Error$
Figure 5: Economic
automotive fuels.
distortion
curve
for
5,000.00#
4,000.00#
US$$
400.00#
200.00#
3,000.00#
2,000.00#
1,000.00#
0.00#
0.00%#
500.00#
US$$
600.00#
US$$
1.00%#
2.00%#
3.00%#
4.00%#
5.00%#
6.00%#
Measuring$Error$
47
the
losses
due
to
Million$
Coal#
1,000.00#
US$
986,035,032.26
for
iron
US$ 5,038,244,969.45for utility services.
7.2 Measuring the economic distortion
Iron#
US$$
800.00#
600.00#
400.00#
200.00#
0.00#
0.00%#
and
1.00%#
2.00%#
3.00%#
4.00%#
5.00%#
6.00%#
Measuring$Error$
Linear(approaching(
Wheat&
Soy&
Corn&
Coffee&
Gasoline&
Ethanol&
Diesel&
Coal&
Iron&
Utility& D& Water,& gas,&
electricity&and&sewer&
y&=&1,351,081,734.06x&
y&=&18,154,801,642.7127x&
y&=&7,831,235,902.21x&
y&=&5,706,934,996.86x&
y&=&17,739,577,420.26x&
y&=&26,894,253,036.35x&
y&=&38,333,547,735.50x&
y&=&9,563,668,978.83x&
y&=&19,716,911,667.11x&
y&=&100,705,819,055.31x&
Million$
48
450.00&
350.00&
US$&414,376,810.01&
Empirical&data&
250.00&
US$$
150.00&
50.00&
CMC&
MPE&
!50.00&
!150.00&
!250.00&
!350.00&
!450.00&
49
Solow$meets$Leontief:$Economic$growth$
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Rothschild,#M.,#Stiglitz,#J.E.,#1976.##
Equilibrium$ in$ competitive$ insurance$
markets.#Quaterly#J.#Econ.#91,#629649.#
Sanders,#R.,#2011.##
Why$ do$ we$ regulate$ measuring$
instruments$ used$ for$ trade.# OIML# Bull.#
LII,#13##15.#
Semerjian,#H.G.,#Watters#Jr.,#R.L.,#2000.##
Impact$ of$ measurement$ and$ standards$
infrastucture$ on$ the$ national$ economy$
and$ international$ trade.# Measurement#
27,#
179196.#
doi:10.1016/S0263f
2241(99)00065f2#
Silva,#P.P.A.,#Rche,#M.M.E.,#Silva,#M.E.,#2006.##
The$ legal$ metrology$ Brazilian$ model.#
Presented# at# the# XVIII# IMEKO# World#
Congress# f# Metrology# for# a# Sustainable#
Development,#Rio#de#Janeiro,#Brazil,#p.#18.#
Spence,#A.M.,#1973.##
Job$ market$ signaling.# Quaterly# J.# Econ.#
87,#355374.#
Stiefel,#S.W.,#1973.##
Management$assistance$for$weights$and$
measures$
progress,$
measuring$
inaccuracys$
economic$
distortion.#
Presented#at#the#58th#National#Conference#
on#Weights#an#Measures.#
Stiglitz,#J.E.,#2002.##
Globalization$ and$ Its$ Discontents.#
W.W.Norf#ton#&#Company,#New#York,#USA.#
Su,#B.,#Huang,#H.C.,#Ang,#B.W.,#Zhou,#P.,#2010.##
Inputoutput$analysis$of$CO2$emissions$
embodied$in$trade:$The$effects$of$sector$
aggregation.# Energy# Econ.# 32,# 166175.#
doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.07.010#
Swann,#P.,#2009.#
The$ economics$ of$ metrology$ and$
measurement.# National# Measurement#
Office,#United#Kingdom.#
#
#
#
Temple,#P.,#Williams,#G.,#2002.##
InfraEtechnology$
and$
economic$
performance:$evidence$from$the$United$
Kingdom$ measurement$ infrastructure.#
Inf.# Econ.# Policy# 14,# 435452.#
doi:10.1016/S0167f6245(02)00065f3#
The#
World#
Bank,#
available#
in#
<data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.M
KTP.CD>.#Accessed#in#08/21/2015.#
Ticona,#J.M.,#Frota,#M.N.,#2008.##
Assessment$ of$ the$ economic$ impact$ of$
product$certification:$A$significant$area$
of$ application$ of$ measurement.#
Measurement#
41,#
88104.#
doi:10.1016/j.measurement.2006.10.017#
Usuda,#T.,#Henson,#A.,#2012.##
Economic$ Impact$ of$ Equivalence$ of$
Measure$ Standards.# NCSL# Int.# Meas.# 7,#
6270.#
Velzquez,#E.,#2006.##
An$ inputoutput$ model$ of$ water$
consumption:$ Analysing$ intersectoral$
water$ relationships$ in$ Andalusia.# Ecol.#
Econ.#
56,#
226240.#
doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.09.026#
International# vocabulay# of# metrology# f# Basic# and#
General#Concepts#Associated#Terms#f#VIM.#
2012#3rd#edition.#
#
51
Para atender ao quinto objetivo especfico do estudo, este captulo apresenta uma
pesquisa que avalia o impacto advindo dos erros de medio de carter sistemtico
introduzidos propositalmente nos instrumentos utilizados na indstria e comrcio, ou seja,
uma fraude. Uma vez que o objetivo de uma fraude metrolgica adquirir vantagens
financeiras de um vendedor sobre um comprador, este tipo de desvio pode provocar impactos
significativos na economia quando considera a agregao destes erros nos setores produtivos
e demanda final. O artigo foi submetido ao Advances in Production Management Systems
Conference APMS 2016: Production Management Initiatives for a Sustainable World e
aprovado, e est aguardando a publicao no peridico IFIP Advances in Information and
Communication Technology.
No estudo utilizada a formulao para avaliao da distoro econmica baseada no
modelo de insumo-produto, que considera o carter positivo do erro de medio como perda
do consumidor em uma transao comercial e o sinal negativo perda do vendedor. Desta
forma, como os resultados de medio de uma fraude so tendenciosos, os resultados foram
divididos em duas distribuies estatsticas distintas: uma para os erros de medio aleatrios,
com valor mdio prximo de zero, e outra para os erros advindos de fraude, que deve ser
deslocada positivamente e representa perdas ao consumidor. O desvio padro dessas
distribuies o parmetro utilizado para estimar a incerteza de medio da distoro
econmica.
Assim, duas variveis so necessrias para determinar o impacto econmico da fraude:
o percentual de erro do instrumento fraudado, que varia neste estudo de 2,5% at 25%, com
base em valores de fraudes encontradas em campo (LEITO; VASCONCELLOS;
BRANDO, 2014),
52
53
Abstract. The present study aims to evaluate the economic distortion in trade
metrology due to metrological frauds in measuring instruments used in the
commerce and industry. The economic distortion represents the economic losses due to measurement deviations in trade. An Input-Output Model approach is
carried out in order to determine the economic distortion whenever an output in
a process represents the input to another one and it considers the aggregation of
values of products traded in the economy. A case test is also conducted using
empirical data of measurement errors and metrological frauds in the fuel sector
in Brazil in order to determine their economic impact. The results show that the
impact of metrological frauds increase the distortion uncertainty from US$
54,910,307.13 to US$ 303,734,309.35! toward consumers losses creating a
great asymmetry in the market.
Keywords. Legal metrology, economic distortion, market asymmetry, Leontief.
Introduction
The commerce has always been present in the human history and it is not possible to
imagine our society separately from it. Specifically, the commerce involving goods
which values are based on weights and measures has always been present in peoples
everyday life. Initially, weights and measures were initially introduced to control food
in trade [1] and the origins of the weighing instruments which are a symbol of parity,
truth and justice date back to the oldest cultures 10,000 years ago [2].
The necessity for protection regards on the economic distortion or market asymmetry that is describe as the monetary value associated to a measurement deviation
due to the inaccuracies intrinsic to the measuring processes as a consequence of errors, uncertainties, operators inaccuracy, environmental conditions and others.
This economic distortion impacts both economy and society since deviations between buyers and sellers cause economic losses and unfair competition. Moreover
consumers protections aspects are also related to this market asymmetry that may be
an indicator of the economic impact of legal metrology [3]. Several researchers have
54
also presented the importance of legal metrology and its social and economical impact
to the society, trade, industry and governments [4-8]. The initiative regarding using
empirical data do evaluate the economic impact of inaccuracy of measuring instruments was initially proposed during the decade of 1970 [4] and several formulations
using proxy variables have also been proposed, such as [5]: number of measurement
related patents in comparison to the total; cost of certification as an indicator of industries willingness to pay for reliability; the sum of all industry equipment.
Despite the deviations of the measuring instruments regards to the measurement error theory, an intentional error or a metrological fraud caused by the operator in order
to prejudice a buyer in a commercial transaction creates a great distortion in the economy. An example is the energy market in Germany, where the global competition has
led to tighter profit margins increasing the risk for metrological frauds [6]. Recently,
the global market has also been overflowed by metrological frauds in the fuel market
occasioning severe losses to the buyers and competitors [7].
Regardless of the obvious aspect that a metrological fraud is prejudicial to the consumers and consequently the economy, its economic impact is not well known. The
Input-Output Model allows to compute how a change in a product demand impacts its
production contemplating the interconnections of productive processes since it considers that an output of a process can be an input to another one [8].
Consequently, the Input-Output Model, hereinafter called I-O for simplicity, permits to evaluate the economic impact a measurement deviation in a product to the
economy, introducing a factor representing these deviations to the traditional Leontiefs formulation, identifying how the deviations spreads across every sector on the
economy.
Then, based on the I-O theory, the present study aims to evaluate the economical
uncertainties cause by metrological frauds in trade. The measurement errors report for
fuel disperses in the field in Brazil is used to provide an empirical case. In order to
understand the impact of metrological frauds, we replaced a percentage of the empirical deviations by values based on known metrological frauds to evaluate the behavior
of these frauds to the economy.
Methodology
2.1
The I-O formulation is based on the assumption that the productive processes are
connected since an input of a process is the output of another process [8]. This interconnection is represented in a matrix system where the lines represent the outputs and
columns the inputs. The basic conception is given by the product output !, which is
represented by the final demand of products ! plus the intermediate consumption of
industries !, as seen in (1).
! =!+!
(1)
55
Due to linear algebra, the basic formulation of the I-O is given by (2), where g represents aggregation of q in industry sectors, I the identity, and D and B are coefficient
matrices.
! = ! !. !
!!
. !. !
(2)
!
!!! !!
(3)
To compute the impact of measurement deviation, a multiplier factor ! representing a percentage of deviation due to measurement errors is introduced in both intermediate consumption of industries and the final demand, as seen in (4).
! = !. ! + !. !
(4)
Finally, the influence of the distortion due to measurement deviations, i.e. the economic distortion ED, is given by the difference of total production including!!, ! less
the total production of the n aggregate products !, as shown in (3).
!" =
2.2
!
!!!(!!
!! )
(5)
(6)
Consequently, positive values of e represent buyer losses and negative values sellers losses. For example, in the fuel market, for a petro pump displaying 20.10l and
the standard displaying 20.00 l, and for 1l = $1.00, it would represent a loss of $0.10
for the buyer.
Since the measurement deviations of instruments can be represented by an average
and measurement uncertainty regarding a statistical distribution, the economy distortion must also contain an uncertainty. For the present study it is reasonable to assume
that measurement errors of the instruments used in the market and industry follow a
gauss distribution. We also assumed the standard deviation to represent the measurement uncertainty in the present study.
However, the set of illegal devices would follow a different statistical distribution
once they are intentionally regulated to provide higher positive measurement errors.
Thus, the contributions of fraudulent devices contribute only to positive values of
deviations. So in order to analyze the contributions of errors to the economic distortion uncertainty, we considered the mutual distribution uncertainty to positive values
56
(buyers losses) and the regular devices distribution to negative values (sellers losses), as seen in figure 1.
(7)
57
Empirical Dataset
3
4
k-2
k-1
n-2
Percentage
randomly
replaced
k-2
k-1
Empirical error
Defrauded
simulated
error
n-1
n-1
Measurement errors
of n devices used in the field
Fig. 2. Process for replacing empirical measurement errors for simulated defrauded values.
Results
For a bigger percentage of fraudulent devices used in trade, the economic distortion
associated to the measurement errors is consequently bigger. Table 1 shows the results of economic distortion from a range of 0.01% to 1% of fraudulent measuring
instruments introduced in the commerce comparing to a scenario where no frauds are
used. A fraud value of 10% is applied to the results presented in table 1, representing
a deviation of 2 l for each 20 l traded.
The measurement uncertainty regarding sellers losses remains constant once a
fraud affects only the buyers. The average representing the economic distortion is
linear dependent of the percentage of fraudulent devices (R2 = 0.9998).
58
Table 1. The variation of the measurement uncertainty according to the percentage of fraudulent devices for a 10% volume deviation.
%"of"fraudulent"
instruments"in"
the"market"
0!
0.01!
0.05!
0.1!
0.5!
1!
Economic""
Distortion"
Average"(US$)"
Buyer&loss&
Measurement"Uncertainty"
$!5,673,853.89!
$5,969,647.42!
$7,018,370.10!
$7,018,370.10!
$19,119,034.64!
$32,295,351.86!
$!54,910,307.13!
$!67,441,271.42!
$!88,496,693.13!
$!109,686,654.24!
$!216,363,722.30!
$!303,734,309.35!
Seller&loss&
$!49,236,453.24!
!
Range"(Buyer"+"Seller)"
$!104,146,760.38!
$!116,677,724.66!
$!137,733,146.37!
$!158,923,107.49!
$!265,600,175.55!
$!352,970,762.60!
$#400.00#
Percentage#of#fraudulent#measuring#instruments:#
0#0%##
$#350.00#
0.01%##
0.01#
Economic'Distor,on'(US$)'
$#300.00#
0.05#
0.05%##
$#250.00#
0.1%##
0.1#
$#200.00#
0.5%##
0.5#
Consumer#loss#
Millions'
Figure 3 shows the economic distortion variation due to metrological frauds, displaying the measurement uncertainty. It is also possible to observe the great divergence between consumer and sellers losses.
1#1%##
$#150.00#
$#100.00#
$#50.00#
Seller#loss#
$#0.00#
!$#50.00#
!$#100.00#
Economic'Distor,on'(US$)'
Millions'
Fig. 3. Effect of metrological frauds on the economy according to the percentage of fraudulent
instruments.
$6.50"
y"="142.5877x"+"5,686,816.3878"
R"="0.9998"
$6.40"
$6.30"
$6.20"
$6.10"
$6.00"
$5.90"
$5.80"
$5.70"
0"
1000"
2000"
3000"
4000"
5000"
6000"
fraud'(ml'per'each'20'l''traded)'
Fig. 4. Economic distortion for a constant number of fraudulent devices and volume variation.
59
Conclusion
The Input-Output Model allowed us to compute the economic distortion due to the
measurement errors of instruments used in trade contemplating the interconnections
of the sector on the economy. Since a fraud is intentionally introduced in the market it
changes the random behavior of deviations and add a systematic deviation component, which reflects in the economic impact to the economy.
The methodology proposed to compute the impact of fraudulent devices in the
market also permitted to identify their impact on the economy based on two variables:
the percentage error of measurement traded and percentage of fraudulent instruments.
Empirical information of the fuel market in Brazil also enable to evaluate the impact of metrological frauds showed to be expressive and it increases the range of uncertainty of the economic distortion from US$ 104,146,760.38!to US$ 352,970,762.60!
toward consumers losses, for 1% of fraudulent devices for a 10% deviation. The
uncertainty representing buyers losses increases from US$ 54,910,307.13 to $
303,734,309.35 creating a big asymmetry between buyers and sellers in the market.
Moreover, we identified that the economic loss is linearly dependent of the volume
deviation introduced in the instrument, for a constant number of fraudulent devices.
The big impact of metrological frauds in the commerce may affect the relation between buyer and seller due to the great asymmetry of information caused by the intentional deviation in the measurements, creating unfair competition that may also impact honest sellers leading the economy to a failure.
Additionally, the proposed model can also be applied to any industrys quality
management system in order to evaluate the losses due to the measurement processes
since the I-O analysis is a consolidate model in economy.
60
Acknowledgement
The authors acknowledge the support of INMETRO, which enabled us to carry out
this research.
References
1.
Birch, J.: The expanding scope of legal metrology and the changing role of the state in a
globalised world. OIML Bull. XLV, 2324 (2004).
2. EULER, W., Hennef, Sieg, M.: History of Scales Part 15: Automatic gravimetric filling
instruments (AGFIs) - Weighing and bag filling machines for loose bulk products. OIML
Bull. 4, 89 (2015).
3. Rodrigues Filho, B.A., Gonalves, R.F.: Legal metrology, the economy and society: A
systematic literature review. Measurement. 69, 155163 (2015).
4. Stiefel, S.W.: Management assistance for weights and measures progress, measuring
inaccuracys economic distortion. Presented at the 58th National Conference on Weights
an Measures (1973).
5. Birch, J.: Benefit of legal metrology for the economy and society - A study for the International Committee of Legal Metrology. International Organization of Legal Metrology OIML, Paris, France (2003).
6. Kochsiek, M., Schulz, W.: Modernization of legal metrology in Germany. OIML Bull.
XLV, 27 31 (2004).
7. Leito, F.O., Vasconcellos, M.T., Brando, P.C.R.: Contramedidas de hardware y software sobre el fraude de alta tecnologa al Surtidor de combustible bajo el alcance de
Metrologa Legal. In: 9th International Symposium Metrologia 2014 Proceedings. p. 8. ,
Havana, Cuba (2014).
8. Leontief, W.: Structure of the world economy: Outline of a simple input-output formulation. Proc. IEEE. 63, 345351 (1975).
9. Rodrigues Filho, B.A., Soratto, A.N., Gonalves, R.F.: Information systems as a tool to
improve legal metrology activities. In: 8th Brazilian Congress on Metrology Proceedings.
, Bento Gonalves, RS, Brazil (2015).
10. Batista, E., Almeida, A., Almeida, N., Reis, C., Filipe, E.: Comparison on the verification
of fuel dispensers. OIML Bull. LIV, 19 24 (2013).
11. IBGE. , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2008).
12. Brazilian Central Bank,
http://www4.bcb.gov.br/pec/taxas/port/ptaxnpesq.asp?id=txcot
acao.
61
CONSIDERAES FINAIS
7.1
Concluses da pesquisa
O presente trabalho se props a avaliar o impacto dos erros de medio dos
instrumentos utilizados no comrcio e indstria na economia por meio do clculo da distoro
econmica. Desta forma, foram propostos cinco objetivos especficos contemplando a
contextualizao e justificativa do trabalho, formulao matemtica, simulao das curvas de
distoro econmica para produtos denominados chave para a economia brasileira, o clculo
com dados empricos por meio dos erros de medio para o setor de combustveis
automotivos e, finalmente, a medio da distoro econmica no caso de fraudes, no caso,
para o setor de combustveis.
A metodologia de tese em formato de artigos foi utilizada para a elaborao deste
trabalho, na qual os objetivos especficos foram vinculados a artigos que foram publicados
e/ou submetidos a peridicos de circulao internacional e sujeitos avaliao por pares, para
consolidar os resultados obtidos.
A reviso sistemtica da literatura permitiu identificar as publicao nos ltimos dez
anos relativas metrologia legal aplicada economia e sociedade. As publicaes foram
classificadas em quatro subgrupos principais: economia e sociedade; comrcio internacional;
controle metrolgico legal e metrologia legal em pases em desenvolvimento. No mbito
econmico e social, as pesquisas publicadas esto focadas nos aspectos relativos ao impacto
financeiro e importncia da metrologia nas relaes comerciais e defesa do consumidor. Uma
das lacunas identificadas nas pesquisas foi a medio dos impactos econmicos da metrologia
legal, que permitiu a contextualizao e a justificativa para a realizao deste trabalho.
Com base na lacuna identificada foi proposta uma modelagem matemtica que usou
como base o modelo de insumo-produto elaborado pelo economista Wassily Leontief, com o
objetivo de medir a distoro econmica provinda de erros de medio nos instrumentos
utilizados na indstria e comrcio. O modelo desenvolvido por Leontief permite identificar o
impacto econmico na variao de um produto, tendo como princpio bsico que a entrada de
um processo afeta a sada de um processo relacionado. Assim, foi introduzido no modelo IP
um fator que representa um desvio de medio relativo aos erros dos instrumentos utilizados
e permite avaliar este impacto em toda a economia.
Por meio da modelagem matemtica proposta foi possvel determinar as curvas de
distoro econmica para os setores de commodities, combustveis, minerao e servios de
62
63
eficiente para os produtos que demandam maior ateno das autoridades pertinentes no campo
da metrologia legal.
7.2
Desenvolvimentos futuros
Uma vez que esta pesquisa props a medio do impacto econmico da metrologia
legal por meio da formulao esttica do modelo de insumo-produto, a aplicao do modelo
dinmico um passo futuro a ser realizado. A formulao dinmica permitir identificar
como um erro de medio impacta imediatamente na produo intermediria e como este
impacto influenciar o produto do qual insumo. O modelo proposto neste estudo apresentou
um aspecto linear entre a distoro econmica e os erros de medio dos instrumentos
utilizados nos processos. Todavia, o modelo dinmico pode introduzir um fator no linear
formulao, sendo os impactos maiores do que os previstos inicialmente nesta pesquisa.
Um segundo aspecto tambm a ser pesquisado refere-se medio emprica da
distoro econmica para outros produtos de relevncia para a economia nacional. Observa-se
que uma vez determinado o impacto emprico, pode-se aplicar o modelo com as matrizes IP
de diversos pases e assim determinar como o Brasil est localizado no que tange
confiabilidade dos resultados das medies na indstria e no comrcio no mundo.
64
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