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ENAP - 14/01/2020
yt = Ft θ t + νt , νt ∼ N (0, Vt )
θ t = G t θ t−1 + ωt , ωt ∼ N (0, Wt )
θ 0 ∼ N (m0 , C0 )
Ft = [ 1 0 0 ⋯ 0], νt = 0
ϕ1 1 0 ⋯ 0 0
⎡ ⎤ 2
σω 0 ⋯ 0
⎡ ⎤
⎢ ϕ2 0 1 ⋯ 0 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 0 0 ⋯ 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
Gt = ⎢ ⎥, ωt = ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ϕ p−1 0 0 ⋯ 0 1⎥
⎣ ⎦
0 0 ⋯ 0
⎣ ⎦
ϕp 0 0 ⋯ 0 0
Ft = [ 1 0 0 ⋯ 0], νt = 0
0 1 0 ⋯ 0 0
⎡ ⎤
⎢ 0 0 1 ⋯ 0 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥
Gt = ⎢ ,
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 0 0 0 ⋯ 1 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 0 0 0 ⋯ 0 1⎥
⎣ ⎦
0 0 0 ⋯ 0 0
1 ϕ1 ϕ2 ⋯ ϕq
⎡ ⎤
2
⎢ ϕ1 ϕ
1
ϕ1 ϕ2 ⋯ ϕ1 ϕq ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥
ϕ2 ϕ1 ϕ2 ϕ ⋯ ϕ2 ϕq ⎥
ωt = ⎢ 2
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥
⎣ 2 ⎦
ϕq ϕ1 ϕq ϕ2 ϕq ⋯ ϕq
Ft = [ 1 0 0 ⋯ 0], νt = 0
ϕ1 1 0 ⋯ 0 0
⎡ ⎤
⎢ ϕ2 0 1 ⋯ 0 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥
Gt = ⎢ ,
⎢ ⎥
⎢ϕ 0 0 ⋯ 0 1⎥
p−1
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ϕp 0 0 ⋯ 0 0⎥
⎣ ⎦
0 0 0 ⋯ 0 0
1 ϕ1 ϕ2 ⋯ ϕq
⎡ ⎤
2
⎢ ϕ1 ϕ
1
ϕ1 ϕ2 ⋯ ϕ1 ϕq ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥
ωt = σ
2
⎢ ϕ2 ϕ1 ϕ2 ϕ
2
⋯ ϕ2 ϕq ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⎥
⎣ 2 ⎦
ϕq ϕ1 ϕq ϕ2 ϕq ⋯ ϕq
1 1 0 ⋯ 0 0
⎡ ⎤
⎢0 1 1 ⋯ 0 0⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
Gt = ⎢ ⎥,
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢0 0 0 ⋯ 1 1⎥
⎣ ⎦
0 0 0 ⋯ 0 1
0 0 0 ⋯ 0 0
⎡ ⎤
⎢0 0 0 ⋯ 0 0 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
ωt = ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ⋮ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢0 0 0 ⋯ 0 0 ⎥
⎣ 2 ⎦
0 0 0 ⋯ 0 σω
library(dlm)
library(numDeriv)
## $par
## [1] 15099.787 1468.438
##
## $value
## [1] 549.6918
##
## $counts
## function gradient
## 32 32
##
## $convergence
## [1] 0
##
## $message
## [1] "CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH"
## [1] TRUE
aVar = solve(hs)
sqrt(diag(aVar))
## [1] 122.8812
sqrt(drop(W(modNile)))
## [1] 38.3202
par(opar)
detach(gibbsOut)
mcmcMean(dV[-burn])
mcmcMean(dW[-burn])
quantile(dV[-burn], c(0.025, 0.975))
quantile(dW[-burn], c(0.025, 0.975))
detach(gibbsOut)
mcmcMean(dV[-burn])
mcmcMean(dW[-burn])
quantile(dV[-burn], c(0.025, 0.975))
quantile(dW[-burn], c(0.025, 0.975))
detach(gibbsOut)
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