ECO – 321 HISTÓRIA DO PENSAMENTO ECONÔMICO

PPGE 2023.3
Prof. Danilo Freitas Ramalho da Silva
e-mail: danilo.ramalho@ufabc.edu.br

Objetivos
O objetivo do curso é discutir a evolução da ciência econômica moderna e o
estabelecimento da teoria neoclássica como sua corrente principal no pós-guerra. Para
tal, serão analisados episódios determinantes na história do pensamento econômico do
século XX, principalmente relacionados ao desenvolvimento da macroeconomia
neoclássica moderna. Serão discutidas, também, as principais ideais da macroeconomia
neoclássica moderna de forma a analisar alguns dos seus conceitos fundamentais.

Avaliação
Artigo a ser entregue no final do curso.

1. Apresentação do curso (19/9)

2. Do Pluralismo Entre Guerras ao Neoclassicismo do Pós-Guerra (26/9)

(*) Morgan, M., Rutherford, M. (1998). American Economics: the character of

transformation. In: Morgan, M, Rutherford, M. (eds.). From Interwar Pluralism to
Postwar Neoclassicism. Suplemento anual, HOPE 30: 1 – 26.
Goodwin, C. D. (1998). The Patrons of Economics in a Time of Transformation. In:
Morgan, M., Rutherford, M. (eds.). From Interwar Pluralism to Postwar Neoclassicism.
Suplemento anual, HOPE 30: 53-81.

Weintraub, E. R. (1991). Stabilizing Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University

Press.
Weintraub, E. R. (2002). How Economics Became a Mathematical Science. Durham:
Duke University Press.
Backhouse, R. (2002). The Ordinary Business of Life. Princeton: Princeton University
Press.
Mirowski, P. (2002). Machine Dreams. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

3. Macroeconomia Neoclássica no Pós-Guerra (3/10)

Hoover, K. D. (2003). A History of Postwar Monetary and Macroeconomics. In:

Warren J. Samuels, Jeff E. Biddle, and John B. Davis, A Companion to the History of
Economic Thought. Oxford: Blackwell. Cap. 26.
(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and
Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Prefácio e Cap. 1.

4. O Modelo IS-LM e a Síntese Neoclássica (10/10)

Hicks, J. (1937). Mr. Keynes and the Classics. Econometrica 5 (2): 147-159.
Hoover, K. D., De Vroey, M. (2004). Introduction: Seven Decades of the IS-LM Model.
In: Hoover, K. D., De Vroey, M. (eds.) The IS-LM Model: Its Rise, Fall, and Strange
Persistence. Suplemento anual, HOPE 36: 1-11.
(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and
Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Caps. 2 e 3.

Samuelson, P. A. (1947). Foundations of Economic Analysis. Cambridge, MA: Harvard

University Press.
Laidler, D. (1999). Fabricating the Keynesian Revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge
University.

5. Monetarismo (17/10)

Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review 58 (1):
1-17.
(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and
Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Cap. 4.

Friedman, M. (1956). The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement. In Friedman, M

(ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Snowdon, B. e Vane, H. R. Modern Macroeconomics: its origins, development and
current state. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2005. Cap. 4.

6. A Curva de Phillips e a Taxa Natural de Desemprego (24/10)

Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of
Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica 25 (100): 283-299.
Samuelson, P. A., Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy.
American Economic Review 50 (2): 177-194.
Forder, J. (2014). Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth. Oxford: Oxford
University Press. Introdução e Caps. 7 e 8.

Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal

Unemployment over Time. Economica 34 (135): 254-281.
Phelps, E. S. (1968). Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium. Journal
of Political Economy, 76 (4): 678-711.
(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and
Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Cap. 5

Phelps, E. S. et al. (1970). Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation

Theory. New York: W.W. Norton.
Phelps, E. S. (1972). Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory: The Cost-Benefit
Approach to Monetary Planning. New York: W.W. Norton. Cap. 2.
Laidler, D. (2002). Phillips in Retrospect. Research in the History of Economic Thought
and Methodology: A Research Annual, Vol. 20-A, págs. 223-235.
Dimand, R. W. (2008). Edmund Phelps and Modern Macroeconomics. Review of
Political Economy 20 (1): 23-39.
7. A Macroeconomia do Desequilíbrio (31/10)

Barro, R. J., Grossman, H. I. (1971). A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and

Employment. American Economic Review 61 (1): 82-93.
De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond.
New York: Cambridge University Press. Cap. 6 e 7.
(*) Backhouse, R. E. e Boianovsky, M. (2013). Transforming Modern
Macroeconomics: exploring disequilibrium microfoundations, 1956 – 2003. Cap. 1.

Leijonhufvud, A. (1968). On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes. Cap.

2.
Solow, R. M., Stiglitz, J. (1968). Output, Employment and Wages in the Short Run.
Quarterly Journal of Economics 82 (4): 537-60.
Malinvaud, E. (1977). The Theory of Unemployment Reconsidered. Oxford: Basil
Blackwell.
Solow, R. M. (1979). Alternative approaches to macroeconomics: a partial view.
Canadian Journal of Economics 12 (3): 339-54.
Howitt, P. (1979). Evaluating the Non-Market Clearing Approach. American Economic
Review 69 (2): 60-63.
Benassy, Jean-P. (1986). Macroeconomics: an introduction to the non-Walrasian
approach. New York: Academic Press.

8. Expectativas Racionais e a Macroeconomia Novo-Clássica (7/11 e 14/11)

Lucas Jr., R. E. (1972). Testing the Natural Rate Hypothesis. In Robert E. Lucas Jr.,
Studies in Business Cycle Theory. Oxford: Blackwell, 1981: 90-103.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A Critique. Carnegie-Rochester
Conference Series on Public Policy 1 (1): 19-46.
Gordon, R. J. (1976). Can Econometric Policy Evaluations Be Salvaged? A Comment.
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1 (1): 47-61.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1976). Reply. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy
1 (1): 62.

Muth, J. F. (1961). Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements.

Econometrica, 29 (3): 315-335.
Sent, E.-M. (1998). The Evolving Rationality of Rational Expectations. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press. Cap. 1.
Sent, E.-M. (2002). How (Not) to Influence People: The Contrary Tale of John F. Muth.
HOPE 34 (2): 291-319.

(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and

Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Caps. 9, 10 e 11.

Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1972a). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of

Economic Theory 4 (2): 103-124.
Tobin, J. (1981). The Monetarist Counter-Revolution Today – an Appraisal. Economic
Journal 91 (361): 29-42.
Hoover, K. D. (1988). The New Classical Macroeconomics. Oxford: Blackwell.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1973). Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs.
American Economic Review 63 (3): 326-334.

9. A Reação Keynesiana e a Macroeconomia Novo-Keynesiana (21/11)

Lucas Jr, R. E., Sargent, T. J. (1979). After Keynesian Macroeconomics. Federal

Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 3 (2), Spring. 49 – 72.
Friedman, B. Discussion. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 3 (2),
Spring. 73 – 83.
(*) De Vroey, M. (2016). A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and
Beyond. New York: Cambridge University Press. Caps. 12 e 13.

Mankiw, N. Gregory (1985). Small menu costs and large business cycles: a
macroeconomic model of monopoly. Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (2): 529-37.
Mankiw, N.G. and Romer D, (1991). New Keynesian Economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press.
Shapiro, Carl; Stiglitz, Joseph (1984). Equilibrium unemployment as a worker
discipline device. Quarterly Journal of Economics 74 (3): 433–444.
Akerlof, G. Yellen, J., (1985). A near-rational model of the business cycle with wage
and price inertia. Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (supl.): 823-838.
Blanchard, Olivier Jean; Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro (1987). Monopolistic competition and the
effects of aggregate demand. American Economic Review 77 (4): 647–666.
Ball, L, Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. (1988). The New Keynesian Economics and the
Output-Inflation Trade-Off. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988 (1): 1-82.

10. A Macroeconomia Atual: uma Nova Síntese Neoclássica? (28/11 e 5/12)

Goodfriend, M., King, R. (1997). The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of
Monetary Policy. In Bernanke, B., Rotemberg, J. (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual
1997. Cambridge: MIT Press, págs. 231–283.
(*) De Vroey, M. e Duarte, P. G. (2013). In Search of Lost Time: the neoclassical
synthesis. The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Vol. 13. Issue 1. 965 – 995.

American Economic Review. Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We

Should All Believe? Vol. 87, No. 2, Maio, 1997.
Mankiw, N. G. (2006). The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer. NBER Working
Paper, No. 12349, Jul.
Blanchard, O. (2008). The State of Macro. NBER Working Paper, No. 14259, Ago.
Arestis, P., Sawyer, M. (2008). A Critical Reconsideration of the Foundations of
Monetary Policy in the New Consensus Macroeconomics Framework. Cambridge
Journal of Economics 32 (): 761-779.