June 15

Scenario Planning

2012
"ranch #$S# %&% 'a(or Pro(ect 1

Scenario planning systematically examines the external environment. These plans search for potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments in areas of interest to an organisation. The planning in this report exercise will cover the following steps scoping, trend analysis, !uilding scenarios, generating options, testing options, and the action plan.

Reccomended Citation | Chester Elijah Branch, Space Disney: Scenario Planning Report Parables Today ( !ne "#$"%&

Parables Today
Table of Contents
'a(le o) Contents&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& " *ntro to the $+,Step -or.shop&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& + Scoping&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& / Concept 0apping &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 1 'rend 2nalysis&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 3 Dri4ing 5orce 2nalysis&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 6 Scenario 5orce 5ields &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $$ B!ilding Scenarios&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $+ Scenario 7ogics and Spaces&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $/ -DC S&-&8&'& 2nalysis&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $9 &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $9 :ey Steps to Scenario Planning&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& $3 'est 8ptions&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& "$ 2ction Plan&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& "/ 0o4ing 5or;ard&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& "3 7in.s&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& "6 http:<<;;;&jiscin)onet&ac&!.<tools<scenario,planning<potential&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&"6 So!rces Cons!lted&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +# Endnotes&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& +$

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Parables Today
Intro to the 13-Step Workshop
CAST ! "!#S: Chester Branch, *saac 2djei Boadi, Re(ecca ania., Shanta= >arper, e))rey S!derman, D!stin :n!tson, ames ?orham, and Philip 2 5oster $isney Strategi% &abs '$S&( ) Imaginer I*T!#*A& !$IA C+*S,&TI*- T!A

S%enario Planning:
A 13-step .orkshop
'his g!ide ;ill help participants )ollo; the process o) the Scenario ;or.shop in 0ay, (!t also, (e help)!l as a g!ide in decision recommendations and )ollo;,thro!gh steps&

@2dapted )rom Dr& ?ary hando!ts gi4en in the 7DS7 9#9 Residency, 0ay 9,$", "#$"& Dr& ay ?ary adapted his hando!t )rom a (oo. (y P& Sch;artA called 'he 2rt o) the 7ong Bie; and hando!ts )rom Dr& Peter Bishop& Dr& Bishop=s hando!ts are (ased on the ?BC Scenario method&

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Parables Today
S%oping
1/ Arti%ulate the fo%al issue or strategi% de%ision 'up to 3 years out( that the s%enarios are to illuminate for your %lient organi0ation/ Client name: 'he -alt Disney Company 5or the year 1233 ) 14 years from no. What is the 5uestion6issue you .ant to ans.er6address7 Be)ore la!nching o!r scenario planning eDercise ;e scoped o!t the sit!ation& ?oing thro!gh this process can determine i) scenario planning )its (etter than any other (!siness plan& Sometimes the iss!e in E!estion may not reE!ire )!t!res )orecasting& *) the iss!e only in4ol4es small changes to (!siness as !s!al, then another methodology ;o!ld apply& -e concl!ded that space tra4el, and in4esting in pri4ate space tra4el, E!ali)ied as a large scale in4estment& 5or Disney, this iss!e ;as ;orthy o) scenario planning& 'he team (egan identi)ying ;here ;e ;ere c!rrently& 5rom there ;e projected o!r )!t!re goals& 2)ter honing in on o!r )ocal E!estion, ;e (egan o!r mini ;or.shop&

Should $isney In8est in Spa%e Tourism7

This was the question we worked from.

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Con%ept apping
Idea

1/ Create a %on%ept map of your %lient organi0ation and their industry/

Produ%tion

Sale6#etail

Customer ,se

!nd of &ife

&ist the ma9or a%tors that populate these %ompetiti8e positions in referen%e to your %lient organi0ation/

Parks6#esorts: Fni4ersal, Royal Cari((ean Consumer Produ%ts: Biacom edia *et.orks: 58G, CBS Studio !ntertainment: 'ime -arner Intera%ti8e edia: Biacom

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Parables Today

Porters 5 Forces Present 2lliances $& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& $$& $"& $& "& +& /& 1& $& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& $$& 'echnology 'ra4el 'ransportation 5ood *nd!stry Ed!cation >e;lett Pac.ard Siemens :oda. Coca,Cola 0cDonalds F'B So)t;are Comm!nication (*ndia% 5ord 0otor Company 5amilies 'eenagers<';eens Sports 5ans Science<'echnology Enth!siast Collectors Birgin 2tlantic -arner Fni4ersal St!dios '!rner Dream -or.s 0edia Related < 'ele4ision 'echnology Resort Bacation Companies < 'ra4el Companies 0?0 >oly land EDperience PBS :ids

Present C!stomers

Esta(lished Competitors

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Porter=s 1

Parables Today
$& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& $$& $"& $+& $/& $1& $H& $9& $3& $6& Fni4ersal St!dios C2S2 Cic.elodeon 5oreign Co!ntries 'echnology (?oogle, 2maAon, 5ace(oo.% Cr!ise lines (Royal Cari((ean% Boeing Fni4ersities ('hin.,tan.s, research% 7oc.heed Fni4ersal Cic.elodeon SiD 5lags Brand B!sch ?ardens Destination E4ents E4ents in a BoD 2pple Birgin 2tlantic Cr!ise 7ines (Royal Cari((ean% 2irlines 0icroso)t Bideo ?aming 0o4ie,'heaters *02G +D</D 5ace(oo. I Social 0edia Jo!'!(e ?oogle Cational Par.s 'ele4ision Resorts

Potential Entrants

Present S!(stit!tes

All of the 5 Major Categories mentioned in the workshop touch on the 5 Walt Disney Company (WDC Markets! 'edia )etworks Parks*+esorts Studio ,ntertainment -onsumer Products .nteractive 'edia

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Parables Today
Trend Analysis
3. Brainstorm the major external trends in this industry over the next 20 years (identify trends, consider implications, analyze drivers).

2 company needs to (e in eE!ili(ri!m ;ith these eDternal dri4ers& ii 'rend spotting simply amo!nts to collecting data on trends and e4ents as they happen& 'rend analysis )inds ;ays to stay ;ithin that eE!ili(ri!m& 'his highlights the cr!cial signi)icance o) an organiAation=s sense o) higher am(ition& Being dri4en (y long,term p!rposes, and )inding ;here yo!r passions pro)ita(ly intersect ;ith yo!r company=s area o) capa(ilities, ;ill .eep Disney s!staina(le )or the )!t!re& iii So%ial: Pop!larity and di4ersity are (oth signs o) social )orce& Te%hnologi%al: 'echnology may (e the greatest single category o) change dri4ers that ;e ;ill cope ;ith o4er the neDt millenni!m& i4 !%onomy: 'he glo(al economy remains a headlining iss!e& China=s p!rchasing po;er ;ill de)initely shape the neDt $#,"# years& !n8ironmental :or%es: 2 stronger dri4er than climate change is the )ear o) limited oil reser4es& 'he energy that r!ns most o) the technology ;e ta.e )or granted is deri4ed )rom oil& 4 'he oil shoc. o) the 9#s spa;ned most o) the scenario planning ;e see today& 4i Politi%al: -e see this happening in Chinese comm!nities& 7ocal comm!nities consider the state as a )ather )ig!re& 'he state also o;ns most (!siness )irms& 'he pri4ate )irms, li.e 7eno4o, depend in many ;ays on state patronage&4ii

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Parables Today
$ri8ing :or%e Analysis
;/ Identify the %onditions shaping the future o8er the fore%ast period/

'hese are possi(le stories that ;o!ld ma.e the headlines&

Jo!=ll notice that these e4ents (egin to )it ;ithin certain gro!ps, categories, or trends&

2nd (ehind those (road, eDternal, trends are 4ery speci)ic dri4ing )orces&

4iii

Enter at least three constants in the scenario framework:

Constants (statements of fact that will not change during the time horizon) -$& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& :ids 'echnology EDists Seasons 2ging Economy I S!pply<Demand Desire )or happiness < pleas!re 2!thority Str!ct!re Ceed )or )ood Ceed )or Ed!cation Ceed to connect )or relationships

4/ Sele%t the dri8ing for%es outside the organi0ation 'trends< e8ents and issues( that are shaping the baseline future/ Enter u to three of each of the scenario dri!ing forces:

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Parables Today
Trends ("more" or "less") -- (describe
$& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& robable futures)

*ncrease in 'echnology C!lt!ral Sta(ility K<, Cational Sta(ility K<, ?lo(al Sta(ility K<, Disposa(le *ncome K<, *ncrease in PersonaliAation *solation<SocialiAation K<, Changes in *solation<SocialiAation K<, Colla(oration < 8pen So!rce K<, ?ro;th in C!riosity K<,

Issues ("#hould...) $ (write out !alue questions affecting your industry)

$& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& Sho!ld ;e care a(o!t (eing greenL Sho!ld ;e care a(o!t prod!ct segregationL 24aila(ility to the massesL Sho!ld ;e care a(o!t the 4al!e o) c!rrency Sho!ld ;e prod!ce o))shoreL Sho!ld ;e (e concerned ;ith ?o4ernment Reg!lationL Sho!ld ;e (e ?ood CitiAens o) spaceL Sho!ld ;e (e concerned ;ith personal pri4acyL Fse<2(!se Sho!ld ;e !se space )or entertainmentL

Events (could be a news a er headline in %& years) -$& "& +& /& 1& H& 9& 3& 6& $#& $$& $"& $+& $/& $1& $H& "#$" | 'echnology ca!ses in)ertility "#$+ | -i5i ?oes 1? "#$1 | -i5i 5ree "#$H | 24erage home o;ns "&" Ro(ots "#"# | Birt!al Reality +D Bideo Con)erence EDisting "#"# | -orld Po;er Shortage "#"# | -eight 'aD *mplemented "#"# | Personal Comp!ters 8(solete "#"$ | Cars are 8(solete "#"" | Personal Comp!ters Banned "#"" | 'echnology 5ree Resorts "#"1 | 'he death o) copyright "#"1 | +# min!te )light 2tlanta to Beijing "#"1 | Space trash po;ers the glo(e "#"1 | R5*D<?PS Chips 0andated "#"1 | 8r(iting Prisons

(describe ossible futures)

These were the conditions our group !rainstormed during the workshop.

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S%enario :or%e :ields
=/ &ist and rank the for%e fields (;or. )rom n!m(er 1% or a>es that are both highly important in their impa%t and highly un%ertain in their out%ome 'direction 2 M B re)er to polarities%

:or%e :ield Analysis (cond!ct n!mero!s dri4ing 4s& restraining )orce )ields% -hich )orces ;ill allo; reg!lation to decrease 8R c!stomiAation to increaseL

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"hese # force field models are more attenuated $ersions of the ones the group made during the workshop%

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"uilding S%enarios
3/ "uild s%enario logi%s that represent different %ontinuums for the t.o highest ranked for%e fields (ie& ran. the top )ields in N HO list the top t;o )orces in the $ M " spaces (elo;, along ;ith their polarities% &

2)ter 4ario!s sessions o) preparation ;e (!ilt the )o!r scenarios a(o4e& 8!r gro!p concl!ded that the D aDis ;o!ld (e comprised o) 4arying degrees o) reg!lation& 'he y aDis ;o!ld (e comprised o) di))erent le4els o) c!stomiAation& 'he C!stomiAed ?lo(al 0ar.et represents the (est case scenario )or Disney& 2 ?lo(al 0onarch or ?lo(al 'yranny represents the ;orst case scenario&

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Parables Today
S%enario &ogi%s and Spa%es
8. Create interesting and illustrative 2-3 word titles for each of the logics.

?/ !laborate one of the four s%enario spa%es or logi%s into a %omplete story that sho.s ho. that spe%ifi% s%enario %ould plausibly emerge from the present/ ('rite only one story of at least (&& words) that corres onds to one logic) The 5uadrants abo8e %orrespond to the 5uadrants on page 13/ -enie @ yo!r ;ish is my command re)ers to a )!t!re that is highly c!stomiAed and ;ith lo; reg!lations& 'he cons!mers are the prod!cers& P* ;ill ela(orate on the neDt pageQ other -othel @ the plag!e is in re)erence to the Tangled story ;here ?othel .ept her )amily separate )rom the rest o) the ;orld ;ith terror& 'his scenario arg!es that terrorism and nationalism ;ill ;in o!t o4er glo(alism& Sleeping "eauty @ A8ne day is a spirit!al s!(teDt re)erring to a gro!p (elie4ing in something more than the physical present& *n this scenario oil shortages and identity the)t )orced e4eryone to go lo; tech& 'hey adopted a more spirit!al and comm!nal society& -aston @ :ill the Best re)ers to ho; ?aston ta.es o4er the to;n 4iolently (y (oth demoniAing and attempting to .ill any opposition& *n this scenario, e4eryone listens to one tyrant& *) anyone opposes, they are .illed&

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Parables Today
12/ Scenario 'itle selected: ?enie Story: -enie S%enario @ ABour Wish is my %ommandC DEigh Personali0ation @ &o. #egulationF *n the ?enie logic space, the c!rrent trend o) Pros!merism contin!es to rise& 'his !shers in ;hat Richard B& 5!ller predicted as the .no;ledge economy&iD People de4elop inno4ati4e ;ays to deal ;ith healthcare and the en4ironment I )or )ree& x 'o paraphrase t;itter co,)o!nder E4an -illiams, the easier it is to share and access in)ormation, the greater the le4el o) goodness there is in the ;orld& E4eryone (ecomes a prod!cer and cons!mer o) in)ormation& *n the "# th cent!ry, media made !s (etter at cons!ming thro!gh one,to,many comm!nication& *n the "$st cent!ry, media has made !s (etter at creating and sharing thro!gh many,to,many comm!nication&Di 0icro,(logs li.e ';itter ;in o!t o4er old media o!tlets li.e CCC, 58G Ce;s, and 0SCBC& 7i)e 0agaAine is the )irst to capitaliAe on this horiAon change& -hile the old media tries to incorporate micro,(logs in their li4e sho;s, 7i)e magaAine (ecomes p!rely a c!rator o) these micro,(logs& 7i)e magaAine (ecomes 7i)e&com, going completely on,line& Smart glass, 'a(lets, and smart totems on street corners print 7i)e "/<9, there(y eclipsing the old media& Dii #econd *ife, a 4irt!al on,line grid, partners ;ith *ife to gi4e e4eryone their o;n ;or. a4atar& 'his allo;s m!lti,national corporations to )orm 4irt!al (!siness teams all o4er the ;orld& 'hey meet in 4irt!al reality and cro;d so!rce any and e4ery prod!ct and project&Diii ?oogle and Bing compete ;ith their :no;ledge ?raph and 7in.ed Data so)t;are to !ni)y all content& 2pple contin!es to ha4e more money in its treas!ry than the F&S& treas!ry& Di4 2s soon as it (ecomes the most 4al!a(le company in the ;orld,D4 Disney merges ;ith 2pple& iDisney ma.es a gra( to acE!ire Bing as it is ;inning the !ni)ied content race& ?oogle attempts to s!e Bing on intellect!al property rights& D!ring the (iggest ;orld co!rt case in history, Share 2li.e 4s& Copyright, 2maAon contin!es to operate !nder the radar& 'he 2maAon clo!d, operating solely (y !ser generated content, (ecomes the !ni4ersal content leader& 2maAon acE!ires *ife and #econd *ife& 2)ter Bing ;ins their land mar. case in "#"1, copyright is declared illegal and a hindrance to )reedom (y the Secretary o) !stice& Second 7i)e de4elops cosmetic (rain s!rgery& 'his de4ice replicates the (rain=s 1 senses in the 4irt!al ;orld& By "#+1, the .no;ledge economy has (een replaced ;ith the content economy& People (arter and trade stories, eDperiences, and memories& Jo! can 4irt!ally (e any;here at any time& Disney=s Space Resort partners ;ith 2maAon (ecoming the (iggest 4irt!al reality mar.et on earth& Disney Space (ecomes the ;orld=s largest space ship& *t contin!es tra4elling space to (ring ne; eDperiences to its c!stomers&

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Parables Today
11/ Cast that story line into another form (i&e&, a memo, dialog!e or ne;s release set in the )!t!re, etc&% that illustrates ho. the future might a%tually appear in that s%enario/ 'he )ollo;ing is a li4e, Chatro!lette,style, "#"1 2irtime stream& & 'he )ollo;ing is a li4e, Chatro!lette,style, "#"1 2irtime stream& )rom"#"1 )rom"#"1 Tony: * thin. Bing did steal ?oogle=s so)t;are& Anne: StealL >o; can it (e stealing i) they o))er the so)t;are )or )reeL Chess: *=m .inda torn (et;een the t;o concepts o) share ali.e and copyright& Tony: >ey ;hat time ;ere they s!pposed to ma.e the r!lingL Chess: * thin. it=s s!pposed to (e no;& Anne: *=m going to try to s;itch o4er and see& DThey %li%k ne>tF -e see a clean phone 4ideo stream o) Bing la;yers smiling and patting ?ates and others on the (ac.& 'he phone ;hips aro!nd as ;e hear o)) screen 'his is a landmar. case& Bing j!st ;on the case !sing open,so!rce and share ali.e case st!dies& 'hey e4en called into E!estion the p!rpose o) copyright I DThey %li%k ba%kF Chess: * can=t (elie4e ?ates is still ali4e& Anne: Remem(er ;hen they said 0icroso)t ;as deadL -o;& Tony: * can=t (elie4e they=re calling into E!estion copyright& DThey %li%k ne>tF Se% of Gusti%e: 5or those o) yo! ;ho didn=t clic. neDt *=m appearing here to ma.e an anno!ncement& 2)ter the recent Bing 4& ?oogle r!ling, the go4ernment has decided to declare Copyright illegal& 5or a longer (rie)ing on this, yo! can clic. on o!r 5ace(oo. ;all or !pload the r!lings )rom -i.ipedia& 'han. yo!& ?od Bless& DThey %li%k ba%kF Chess: Did yo! j!st hearL Anne: Jeah copyright is illegal& Tony: remem(er this moment y=all& 'his is h!ge& Chess: Co, * ;as tal.ing a(o!t the iDisney and 2maAon partnership& 'hey=re no; the ;orld leader o) content& 'oday intellect!al property died& 'he )!t!re is eDperience& Anne: 2nyone else going to the concert tonightL Tony: Jeah, *=ll (e there& Chess: !st send me the highlights& *=m sleepy& 7aters&&& DThey %li%k ne>tF

Airtime%com is a li$e $ideo chat format in association with &ace'ook% (t is continually 'eing re)tooled% "he initial difference 'etween this and *kype is that clicking ne+t could send you to someone outside of your social graph% ,$entually this may 'e used as switching channels of li$e real)time inter$iews% "hat is to say- (m li$e chatting with my friends and ( want more info on the su'ject were discussing% (f ( click ne+t- (ll get linked to someone documenting.reporting on the issue% (n this scenario it is a landmark court case! /ing $% 0oogle%

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W$C S/W/+/T/ Analysis and Strategi% Impli%ations
11/ $es%ribe the strategi% impli%ations 'S/W/+/T/ analysis belo.( for your %lientsH fo%al issue 'point I1(< in 8ie. of your sele%ted 'point I?-12( long-term s%enario/

1/ W$C is among the most popular brand names in the .orld/ They are ranked among the top 12 global brands/>8i 1/ They ha8e high operation %osts/ The poor .orking %onditions in fa%tories around the .orld %ould pose a huge P# problem as people be%ome more globally a.are/ And their top management %hanges often/ 3/ They sho. potential to %ontinue marketing in untapped %ountries/ App gaming programs and ,-C 'user generated %ontent( promises to redu%e %osts for produ%tion in the future/ !>panding resorts and parks to in%lude 8irtual rides promises more $isney themed attra%tions/ ;/ ore %ulture %lashes in the future %ould erupt/ *ationalism and terrorism %ould break out all o8er the .orld/ $isney also fa%es steep %ompetition from Paramount and ,ni8ersal/

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Jey Steps to S%enario Planning
13/ $es%ribe .hat you learned about the future that you did not kno.< understand or reali0e before you did this e>er%ise/ S%enario Planning: Jey Chara%teristi%s 2 methodology )or strategy de4elopment !se)!l )or organisations, programmes or projects acting in a highly dynamic en4ironment ta.ing compleD and o)ten ris.y decisions Pro4ides rigo!r as ;ell as opport!nities to dra; !pon the creati4ity o) those in4ol4ed, res!lting in ne; 4ie;s and interpretations on important eDternal de4elopments 'ypically in4ol4es the de4elopment o) 4is!al representations o) possi(le )!t!res Creati4e yet str!ct!red approach is pop!lar ;ith mar.eting managers, programme managers and prod!ct de4elopers that are loo.ing )or ne; mar.ets, ideas, ser4ices or projects& 5or more, see the 7in.s on page "3&

We learned su%%essful .ays to plan for the future/ Ten Tips for Su%%essful S%enarios $& Stay )oc!sed "& :eep it simple +& :eep it interacti4e /& Plan to plan and allo; eno!gh time 1& DonRt settle )or a simple high, medi!m and lo; H& 24oid pro(a(ilities or Rmost li.elyR plots 9& 24oid dra)ting too many scenarios 3& *n4ent catchy names )or the scenarios 6& 0a.e the decision ma.ers o;n the scenarios

$#& B!dget s!))icient reso!rces )or comm!nicating the scenariosD4ii ///and some traps to a8oid DonRt treat scenarios as )orecasts DonRt constr!ct scenarios (ased on too simplistic a di))erence , s!ch as optimistic and pessimistic 0a.e the scenarios glo(al eno!gh in scope Ens!re yo! )oc!s the scenarios in areas o) potential impact on the enterprise 'reat scenarios as an in)ormational or instr!ctional tool rather than )or participati4e learning and<or direct strategy )ormation Ens!re adeE!ate process )or engaging management teams in the scenario planning process DonRt stint on the imaginati4e stim!l!s in the scenario design Fse eDperienced, or at least ;ell,(rie)ed, )acilitator(s%

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Parables Today

REC2P
So far< this report has %o8ered steps 1-;/ It .ill no. del8e into steps 4 and =/

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Test +ptions
Identify and dis%uss potential impli%ations and impa%ts of s%enarios/ 'his S-8' graph (elo; ill!strates ho; to potentially S;ind t!nnel= some o) the major threats&

A/ -ith yo!r high (rand recognition and gaming partnerships, yo! can create 2P* space themed ad4ent!res& "/ EDpand yo!r glo(al heath and home )!rnishing missions to )actories& C/ Fse social media o!tlets and sit!ational leadership to (rea. do;n c!lt!ral di4ide& P8n page "$,"", * ;ill ela(orate on this as a ;ind t!nnel eDerciseQ& $& -or. ;ith C?8s to de4elop a ?lo(al Code o) Cond!ct&

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Parables Today
Wind Tunnelling Kuadrant C 2 real potential threat in the near )!t!re is more ;ar in the 0iddle East& 'his co!ld ca!se nations all o4er to shrin. (ac. )rom a ?lo(al mindset and to;ards a more nationalist perspecti4e& 'errorism co!ld spar. distr!st& 8il reser4es co!ld (e c!t o))& 'his co!ld threaten o!r 4ery li4elihood, let alone in4estment plans in SDisney Space&= -hile this has potential to sha.e !p o!r Disney=s )!t!res model, Disney has the a(ility to ;eather thro!gh these c!lt!re clash storms& 'hey learned )rom the mirror trap in E!ro Disney& xviii Co; they hire nati4e mar.eting managers to ;or. ;ithin their o4erseas companies& 'here=s also a sit!ational leadership approach that can (e applied to di))erent c!lt!res&

?lo(al leaders sho!ld listen and adapt as they engage ;ith di))erent c!lt!res& DiD Doing this ena(les all mem(ers T to more e))ecti4ely !nderstand the (asis o) their o;n (eha4io!r and more meaning)!lly and s!ccess)!lly enhance relationships ;ith one another& DD >ersey and Blanchard, pioneers o) sit!ational leadership, ha4e di4ided c!lt!ral en4ironments into )o!r distinct categories o) directi4e and s!pporti4e (eha4io!rs&DDi 'here method ;or.s on (oth a local and glo(al scale& DDii -here a c!lt!re rests on the conteDt scale a(o4e determines the (est approach& 'ing,'oomey and :!rogi=s S)ace )rame;or.= ser4es as a coherent co!nterpart to the >ersey and Blanchard categories& 'ing,'oomey has created se4eral 4ariations o) this model (!t they all essentially represent the same )o!r )aces& DDiii -hile 'ing,'oomey and :!rogi !se )o!r categories to descri(e these high and lo;,conteDt c!lt!res DDi4, >ersey and Blanchard !se )o!r categories to descri(e ho; glo(al leaders sho!ld (est approach these conteDt c!lt!res& 'he more )ace,gi4ing c!lt!res de)end and s!pport the other person=s need )or incl!sion& 5ace,gi4ing c!lt!res ha4e a collecti4e mindset and desire de)ined roles that ;ill incl!de e4eryone& 2 telling approach to leadership complements this c!lt!re& 5ace,assertion )oc!ses more on the indi4id!al=s desire to ha4e a role in the gro!p& Some indi4id!als in the c!lt!re may )eel li.e o!tsiders& 'his leadership ;ill !se a selling approach to reass!re them that they (elong& DD4 Parables Today: Transmedia Consulting Page | ""

Parables Today
5ace,sa4ing c!lt!res )ight )or other people to ha4e )reedom and space& 'his c!lt!re, o)ten )o!nd in the -est, reE!ires a more participatory approach& 'hese leaders do not in4ol4e themsel4es in the day,to,day tas.s& 2 hands,o)) approach )oc!ses more on (ringing o!t the s.ills o) the gro!p thro!gh listening, praising, as.ing )or inp!t, and gi4ing )eed(ac.&DD4i 5ace,restoration ran.s the lo;est among the conteDt c!lt!res& *n this c!lt!re, each indi4id!al )ights )or more a!tonomy& 7eaders in this c!lt!re ta.e more o) a delegating approach& 2t this point the leader lets his )ollo;ers r!n their o;n sho;DD4ii (eca!se the ;or.ers ha4e a crystal clear !nderstanding o) the goals& Social media methods are c!rrently at ;or. to pre4ent these .inds o) nationalist scenarios& DD4iii 'he social media strategies Disney has access to co!ld also (ridge the instit!tionaliAed enmity& DDiD B!t e4en i) the political leaders attempt to (lac. o!t )orms o) social media diplomacy, so!rces li.e t;itter ha4e created ;or. aro!nd so)t;are )or o))line diplomacy (et;een co!ntries&Pspea. to t;eet endnoteQ *n the case that none o) these acts o) diplomacy ;or., Disney and Playdom co!ld potentially ;or. on social gamming projects xxx that ;ill disco4er rene;a(le )orms o) energy that s!rpass the 4al!e o) oil&

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Parables Today
A%tion Plan
What should .e do 'or not do( to be su%%essful in this s%enario7

'o ma.e strategic preparations )or the S?enie= scenario ;e sho!ld !se long tail transmedia storytelling& 'his ;ay, the story ;orlds that Disney c!rrently controls can (e eDpanded to s!ch an eDtent that second li)e a4atars can (e created )or hard core )ans to enjoy& 'he 24engers is a great eDample& 'hey !sed se4eral o) these mar.eting tactics to get people in theatre d!ring their historical (oD,o))ice ;ee. end& B!t they also need to contin!e spinning that story o)) into re(ooted comics, 4ideo games, )an,)iction, and Cet)liD 24engers Series& 5or eDample, their 24engers 2ssem(le cartoon ;as released to Cet)liD (e)ore the )ilm& B!t it appears the series only ser4ed as an animated 4ersion o) the li4e action mo4ies that ha4e already come o!t& 'he series sho!ld ha4e contin!ed& 'here sho!ld still (e ne; episodes playing the same time the mo4ie is o!t& 'hey sho!ld also ha4e more )an,)iction in4ol4ement, creating potentially ne; characters that co!ld appear in the 24engers seE!el& 'here sho!ld (e 2R?s )or the seE!el& 'hese strategies co!ld la!nch a deeper 'hor !ni4erse )or Disney Space&

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2nother strategy )or the S?enie= scenario ;o!ld (e the Bl!e 8cean Strategy& Cadler M '!shman arg!e that the last so!rce o) competiti4e ad4antage lies in the organiAational design& DDDi :eidel ma.es the case that (y seeing organiAational patterns, one can pre4ent competiti4e disad4antage and le4erage a competiti4e ad4antage in said organiAation=s )a4o!r&DDDii :im and 0a!(orgne=s SBl!e 8cean Strategy= sho;s ho; inno4ation o)tentimes s!persedes the so called competiti4e ad4antage& DDDiii *) 2maAon is tr!ly the )!t!re leader o) content, this strategy ;ill (ene)it Disney in t;o ;ays& Disney and Biacom ha4e (een competing ;ith each other to gra( shares o) the mo(ile gaming mar.et& Cic.<Biacom la!nched addictinggames&com )or the iphone& Disney also la!nched mo(ile games )or iphone, driod, (lac.(erry and a4a Bre;& *nstead o) competing in a )looded mar.et, Disney co!ld ;or. ;ith the ne; 2maAon SmartphoneDDDi4 and not only capt!re a ne; mar.et place (!t also (egin a long,term partnership ;ith them&

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Parables Today

'he pict!re a(o4e metaphorically represents three dials or gears on a giant ;heel o) inno4ation and creati4ity& *) yo! speed !p those dials o) cro;d, light, and desire, the ;heel o) creati4ity and inno4ation t!rns )aster& 2ltho!gh (igger cro;ds (ring in more inno4ation, the cro;ds are mostly composed o) other .inds o) people& Each person represents an in4al!a(le component to the process& 2nderson says the light spea.s to the ;illingness to share and open !p yo!r project in these social media o!tlets& 'his is called liE!id net;or.ing&DDD4 8nce the sharing reaches large social media a!diences, it is either ignored or appla!ded& Positi4e )eed(ac. dials !p the desire& People contin!e to share o!t o) a desire )or glo(al recognition )rom the cro;d o) commenters, trend,spotters, and cheerleaders& *t then (ecomes a perpet!al, sel),)!elling machine& *t is also a sel),cleaning machine (eca!se the (ad ideas lose the cro;d and light or E!ic.ly colla(orate and impro4e& 'his is (ecoming the ne; medi!m )or (oth indie and mainstream )ilm companies& Cisco estimates that (y as soon as "#$+, 6#U o) all *P tra))ic ;ill (e 4ideo sharing&DDD4i onathan Ch! is a )ilmma.er and screen;riter (est .no;n )or directing dance )ilms li.e #te + , and (& -hat he noticed online ;as the C2* method ;or.ing ;ith dancers on -ouTube& :ids in apan ;ere ;atching dance 4ideos and (!ilding on them& People in Detroit and Cali)ornia ;o!ld then ;atch these and remiD them& Ch! called this a glo(al la(oratory& >e e4ent!ally recr!ited the most inno4ati4e artists on -ouTube and )ormed 7GD& 7GD (ecame one o) the most pop!lar a ;e( series e4er la!nched on .ulu& >!l! is partially o;ned (y the -alt Disney Company&

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Parables Today
'hey co!ld !se this same method )or de4eloping characters and stories thro!gh social gaming and )an, )iction& 'hro!gh cro;d,so!rcing, Disney co!ld create ne; space themed story ;orlds )or Disney Dream and e4ent!ally Disney Space& *n "#$$,$" Disney joined the cr!ise lines as an eDpansion o) the Disney Par.s and Resorts& 'hey de4eloped Disney Dream and Disney 5antasy& 'he interior ca(ins o) the Dream already ha4e S4irt!al portholes= that allo; 4oyagers to see action o!tside o) the ship, as ;ell as a )e; (elo4ed Disney characters )loating (y the ;indo;& 'he ship also )eat!res a high,tech teen lo!nge& 'his sets the stage )or similar 4irt!al scenarios ;ith the Space Disney eDperience&

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Parables Today
o8ing :or.ard
-e m!st al;ays (ear in mind that scenarios do not represent tr!ths , they are (ased on ;hat ;e .no; a(o!t ;hat is happening& -e m!st contin!e to monitor trends& 2ccording to 0intA(erg ;hen companies !nderstand the di))erence (et;een planning and strategic thin.ing, they can get (ac. to ;hat the strategy, ma.ing process sho!ld (e& DDD4ii 'oday, instead o) loo.ing straight ahead, companies also pay attention to peripheral S&'&E&E&P& de4elopments&DDD4iii 0any companies are still late at pic.ing !p on the signals& 5or eDample, 0icroso)t missed o!t on open so)t;are and ?E missed o!t on 7ED tra))ic lights& DDDiD 'he pri4atiAation o) space tra4el has emerged as one o) those peripheral de4elopments ;here Disney=s passions co!ld pro)ita(ly intersect ;ith their c!rrent areas o) capa(ilities& 'his in4estment co!ld potentially ma.e Disney s!staina(le in the distant )!t!re&

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Parables Today
&inks
*SC Fsers and *nno4ation Programme, Phttp:<<;;;&jisc&ac&!.<;hat;edo<programmes<programmeV!sersVandVinno4ation&aspDQ& *SC 'ools )or Scenario Planning http:66.../9is%infonet/a%/uk6tools6s%enario-planning6potential

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Parables Today
Sour%es Consulted
Peter Sch;artA, The /rt of the *ong 0iew (Ce; Jor.: Do!(leday, $66$%& enny BeeryO Esther Eidino;O Cancy 0!rphy (Editors% 'he 0ont 5le!r Scenarios& 1ee er 2ews (Bol 9, Co $& $66"% ?aston Berger, Ph3nom3nologies du Tem s et Pros ecti!es (Paris: Presse Fni4ersitaires de 5rance, $6H/%& Peter BishopO 2ndy >inesO 'erry Collins,'he C!rrent State o) Scenario De4elopment& 4oresight (0arch "##9%: 1,"1& Bertrand de o!4enel, The /rt of 5on6ecture (Ce; Jor.: Basic Boo.s, $6H9%& >!g!es de o!4enel, 2n *n4itation to 5oresight& 4uturibles Pers ecti!es, (Special *ss!e "##/%& Di))en(ach, Corporate En4ironmental 2nalysis in 7arge FS Corporations& *ong 7ange Planning ($H, + $63/%: $#9,$$H& 7iam 5aheyO Ro(ert 0& Randall (eds%, *earning from the 4uture: 5om etiti!e 4oresight #cenarios. (Ce; Jor.: ohn -iley M Sons, $663%& 0ichel ?odet, #cenarios and #trategic 8anagement (7ondon: B!tter;orth Scienti)ic, $639%& 0chel ?odet, Creating 5!t!res (7ondon: Economica, "##H%& >erman :ahnO 2& & -einer, The -ear ,&&&: / 4ramework for # eculation on the 2e9t Thirty -ears (Ce; Jor.: 0acmillan, $6H9%& ElA(ieta :ra;cAy.O ohn Ratcli))e, *magine 2head, Plan Bac.;ards 4utures /cademy) 1ublin :nstitute of Technology ( an!ary "##1%& Pentti 0alas.aO *l..a Birtanen, 'heory o) 5!t!ri(les 4utura (5e(r!ary "##1%: $#,"3& oe -illmore, Scenario Planning: Creating Strategy )or Fncertain 'imes :nformation ;utlook (Septem(er "##$%&

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Parables Today
!ndnotes

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0ichael Porter, 'he 5i4e Competiti4e 5orces 'hat Shape Strategy& www.hbr.org an!ary, "##3, http:<<h(r&org<"##3<#$<the,)i4e,competiti4e,)orces,that,shape,strategy<ar<$
ii

'homas Chermac., #cenario Planning in ;rganizations (San 5rancisco: Berret,:oehler, "#$$%, $#+&

iii

0ichael Beer, .igher /mbition (Boston: >ar4ard B!siness Re4ie; Press, "#$$%$HH,$H9, compare ;ith B!l.e, CE8 o) Cestle, on page 63&
iv

'homas Chermac., #cenario Planning in ;rganizations (San 5rancisco: Berret,:oehler, "#$$%, $#/&

?ail '4er(erg, 'he Reality is, 8!r Economy R!ns on 8il and -e Ceed 0ore www.businessinsider.com 9 5e(r!ary, "#$", http:<<articles&(!sinessinsider&com<"#$",#",#9<home<+$#$$9"1V$Vcr!de,oil,oil,prices,oil, cons!mption
vi

?eorge S& DayO Pa!l & Shoema.er, Peri heral 0ision (Boston: >ar4ard B!siness School Press, "##H%, ++& 2lso see 0atthe; R& Simmons, ';ilight in the Desert (Ce; Jor.: ohn -iley M Sons, "##1%&
vii

*an e))ries, Economic 1e!elo ments in 5ontem orary 5hina (Ce; Jor.: 'aylor and 5rancis, "#$$%, /66& 0ats 7indgrenO >ans Banhold, #cenario Planning (Ce; Jor.: Palgra4e 0amillan, "##+%, $$9& Richard B& 5!ller, 5ritical Path (Ce; Jor.: St& 0artin=s Press, $63$%, "## I "#"& ?a(e WichermannO Christopher C!nningham, <amification by 1esign (Se(atopol: 8= Reilly 0edia, "#$$%& Clay Shir.y, 5ogniti!e #ur lus (Ce; Jor.: Peng!in Press, "#$#%, See S2 Ce; Reso!rce=&

viii

ix

xi

xii

:eith St!art, Smart ?lass, G(oD +H# and the (attle )or the Connected 7i4ingroom www.guardian.co.uk 1 !ne, "#$", http:<<;;;&g!ardian&co&!.<technology<games(log<"#$"<j!n<#1<smartglass,D(oD,ne;s

xiii

>aya El Casser, 'he 8))ice is Shrin.ing as 'ech Creates -or.place E4ery;here ;;;&!satoday&com 1 !ne, "#$", http:<<;;;&!satoday&com<money<;or.place<story<"#$",#H,#1<tech,creates,;or.place, e4ery;here<11/#11$3<$
xiv

2pple Co; has 0ore 0oney than the FS& www.straitstimes.com +# !l, "#$$, http:<<;;;&straitstimes&com<Brea.ingCe;s<'echandScience<Story<S'*StoryVH6H1$"&html
xv

Ben Parr, 2pple is 1# Billion a;ay )rom Becoming the -orld=s 0ost Bal!a(le Company& www.mashable.com "# !l, "#$$, http:<<masha(le&com<"#$$<#9<"#<apple,eDDon<
xvi

acE!elyn Smith, 'he -orld=s 0ost Rep!ta(le Companies www.forbes.com 9 !ne, "#$", http:<<;;;&)or(es&com<sites<jacE!elynsmith<"#$"<#H<#9<the,;orlds,most,rep!ta(le,companies<"<
xvii

ay 8gil4yO Peter Sch;artA, Plotting Jo!r Scenarios& *earning from the 4uture (Ce; Jor.: -iley, $663%, 99,3#&
xviii

Saj,niole oni, 'hree 'raps 5acing Ce; ?lo(al 7eaders& ;;;&h(r&org& 9 Co4em(er, "#$$, http:<<(logs&h(r&org<cs<"#$$<$$<threeVtrapsV)acingVne;Vglo(al&html
xix

Ric.y -& ?ri))in, 4undamentals of 8anagement (Princeton: Cengage 7earning, "##9%, ++/&

xx

0i.a ?a(rielsson, ohn Darling, >ann! Seristo, 'rans)ormational 'eam,B!ilding 2cross C!lt!ral Bo!ndaries Team Performance 8anagement (8cto(er "##3%, "+3&
xxi

Pa!l >erseyO :en Blanchard, *eadershi and the ;ne 8inute 8anager (Ce; Jor.: -illiam 0orro;, $666%&
xxii

Ro(ert C& 7!ssierO Christopher 5& 2ch!a, *eadershi : Theory) / So!th,-estern College P!(&, "##$%, $3H&

lication) #kill 1e!elo ment (Cincinnati:

xxiii

Stella 'ing,'oomey, 2 0atriD o) 5ace: 2n Fpdated 5ace Cegotiation 'heory& Theorizing /bout :ntercultural 5ommunication ('ho!sand 8a.s: Sage P!(lishing, "##1%, 9$,6"&
xxiv

Stella 'ing,'oomeyO 2& :!rogi, 5ace;or. Competence in *nterc!lt!ral Con)lict& :nternational =ournal of :ntercultural 7elations ($663%, $39,""1&
xxv

Peter ?& Cortho!se, *eadershi Theory and Practice ('ho!sand 8a.s: Sage P!(lications, "##6%, 6$& -illiam 2 Callahan, 5ontingent #tates (0inneapolis: Fni4ersity o) 0innesota Press, "##/%, $/",$//& Select :no;ledge, 8anaging Teams (Fni4ersity o) Cam(ridge: Select :no;ledge 7imited, "##$%, 9+&

xxvi

xxvii

xxviii

2leDander 0arE!ardt, *srael 7o4es *ran Campaign ?ains 5orce ;;;&a(cne;s&go&com "+ 0arch, "#$", http:<<a(cne;s&go&com<(logs<headlines<"#$"<#+<israel,lo4es,iran,campaign,gains,)orce<
xxix

'rita Parsi, / #ingle 7oll of the 1ice (Ce; >a4en: Jale Fni4ersity Press, "#$"%, See 'rapped in a Paradigm o) Enmity&
xxx

ane 0c?onigal, 7eality is >roken (Ce; Jor.: Peng!in Press, "#$$%, See: ?amer=s 0ass Participation&

xxxi

Da4id 2 CadlerO 0ichael 7 '!shman, 5om eting by 1esign (Ce; Jor.: 8D)ord Fni4ersity Press, $669%, See chapter $", S7esson in Design&=
xxxii

Ro(ert -& :eidel, #eeing ;rganizational Patterns (San 5rancisco: Berrett,:oehler, $661%, See page $H !nder S'hree ;ays to )ail&=
xxxiii

- Chan :imO Renee 0a!(orgne, >lue ;cean #trategy (Boston: >ar4ard B!siness School Press, "##1%&

xxxiv

P 0angalindan, *s 2maAon 0a.ing a SmartphoneL www.tech.fortune.cnn.com $3 Co4em(er, "#$$, http:<<tech&)ort!ne&cnn&com<"#$$<$$<$3<amaAon,ma.ing,smartphone<

xxxv

Ste4en ohnson, 'here <ood :deas 5ome 4rom (Ce; Jor.: Ri4erhead Boo.s, "#$#%&

DDD4i

Eric. Schon)eld, Cisco: By "#$+ Bideo -ill Be 6# Percent o) 2ll Cons!mer *P 'ra))ic& www.techcrunch.com 6 !ne, "##6, http:<<techcr!nch&com<"##6<#H<#6<cisco,(y,"#$+,4ideo,;ill,(e,6#, percent,o),all,cons!mer,ip,tra))ic,and,H/,percent,o),mo(ile<
xxxvii

>enry 0intA(erg, 'he Rise and 5all o) Strategic Planning& .ar!ard >usiness 7e!iew ( an!ary,5e(r!ary $66/%: +&
xxxviii

Bill Ralston, *an -ilson, The #cenario Planning .andbook (0ason: 'homas So!th,-estern, "##H%, 36&

xxxix

?eorge S& DayO Pa!l & Shoema.er, Peri heral 0ision (Boston: >ar4ard B!siness School Press, "##H%, $"#,$"H&