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2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
y = X 0β + e
(1)
y = X 0β + e
(1)
se β é o parâmetro de interesse e
y = X 0β + e
(1)
se β é o parâmetro de interesse e
E [Xe] 6= 0
(2)
y = X 0Ø + e
Esse é um problema central na econometria e é o que a diferencia em
e parameter of interest
relação and Para distinguir (1) do modelo de regressão e
à estatística.
[X e] 6= 0.estrutural e β de parâmetro
projeção, vamos chamar (1) deEequação
estrutural
core problem in econometrics and largely differentiates the field from statistics.
om the regression and dizemos
Se (2) ocorre, projection quemodels, we will call
X é endógeno a β.(12.1) a structural não
Endogeneidade equation
rameter. When (12.2) holds, it is typical to say that X is endogenous for Ø.
pode ocorrer se o coeficiente é definido pela projeção linear. De fato,
ogeneitypodemos
cannot happen
definir oif coeficiente
the coefficient is defined
de projeção by linear projection. Indeed,
linear
£ §°1
E [XX 0 ]−1 E
β ∗ = coefficient
ar projection ا[XY X0
= E] eX equação Y ]projeção
E [Xde and linear projection equation
linear
Y = X 0 ا + e §
£ §
E X e § = 0.
r, under endogeneity (12.2) the projection coefficient ا does not equal the structu
° £ §¢
0 °1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF)
ا = E X X
MQ II
E [X Y ] April 20, 2021 7 / 59
r projection coefficient Ø = E X X E [X Y ] and linear projection equation
Visão Geral Y = X 0 ا + e §
£ §
E X e § = 0.
337
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
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Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
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Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
Y = Z 0β + e = (X − u)0β + e = X 0β + v
Y = Z 0β + e = (X − u)0β + e = X 0β + v
onde v = e − u0β.
Y = Z 0β + e = (X − u)0β + e = X 0β + v
onde v = e − u0β.
Isso significa que (Y , X ) satisfaz a equação linear
Y = Z 0β + e = (X − u)0β + e = X 0β + v
onde v = e − u0β.
Isso significa que (Y , X ) satisfaz a equação linear
Y = X 0β + v
Y = Z 0β + e = (X − u)0β + e = X 0β + v
onde v = e − u0β.
Isso significa que (Y , X ) satisfaz a equação linear
Y = X 0β + v
com um erro v . Mas esse erro não é o erro de projeção
mple: Supply and Demand. The variables Q and P (quantity and price) are deter
emand equation
Q = °Ø1 P + e 1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 13 / 59
Exemplo Erro de Medida doY =Regressor
X 0Ø + v
mple: Supply and Demand. The variables Q and P (quantity and price) are deter
emand equation
Q = °Ø1 P + e 1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 13 / 59
Exemplo Erro de Medida doY =Regressor
X 0Ø + v
mple: Supply and Demand. The variables Q and P (quantity and price) are deter
emand equation
Q = °Ø1 P + e 1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 13 / 59
Y = Z 0 Ø + e = (X ° u)0 Ø + e = X 0 Ø + v
Exemplo Erro de Medida doY =Regressor X 0Ø + v
0
= e ° u Ø. This means that (Y , X ) satisfy the linear equation
error v. But this error is not a projection error. Indeed,
De fato,
£ Y °= X 0 Ø +¢§v £ §
E [X v] = E (Z + u) e ° u 0 Ø = °E uu 0 Ø 6= 0
error £v. But
§ this error is not a projection error. Indeed,
nd E uuse0 β 6= 0.
6= As
0 ewe learned
E [uu 0 ]6=0.in the previous section, if E [X v] 6= 0 then least squar
£ ° ¢§ £ §
consistent. E [X v] = E (Z + u) e ° u 0 Ø = °E uu 0 Ø 6= 0
Como vimos anteriormente, se E [Xv ]6=0 , então o OLS será
£ 0 § the form of the projection coefficient (which is consistently estim
an calculate
nd E uuinconsistente
6= 0. As we learned in the previous section, if E [X v] 6= 0 then least squa
For simplicity suppose that k = 1. We find
nconsistent.
Podemos calcular a forma do coeficiente de projeção (que é
√ £ 2§ !
an calculate the form of estimado
consistentemente the projection
por coefficient
mínimos
E [X v] (which
u
quadrados).
E is consistently
Para estim
simplificar,
§
. For simplicity
suponhasuppose
que k =that k==Ø1.+We
1.Ø Encontramos § = Ø 1° £ § .
£ find
E X2 E X2
√ £ 2§ !
§ £ § u
E [X v]shrinks theE structural
u 2 /E X 2 < 1 the projection § coefficient
Ø = Ø + £ 2§ = Ø 1 ° £ 2§ . parameter Ø towa
measurement error bias or attenuation bias. E X E X
§ £ 2§
u 2 /ESupply
mple: X < and 1 theDemand.
projectionThe coefficient
variablesshrinks
Q and the structural
P (quantity parameter
and towa
price) areØ deter
measurement
emand equation error bias or attenuation bias.
Q = °Ø1 P + e 1
mple: Supply and Demand. The variables Q and P (quantity and price) are deter
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 13 / 59
Y = Z 0 Ø + e = (X ° u)0 Ø + e = X 0 Ø + v
Exemplo Erro de Medida doY =Regressor X 0Ø + v
0
= e ° u Ø. This means that (Y , X ) satisfy the linear equation
error v. But this error is not a projection error. Indeed,
De fato,
£ Y °= X 0 Ø +¢§v £ §
E [X v] = E (Z + u) e ° u 0 Ø = °E uu 0 Ø 6= 0
error £v. But§ this error is not a projection error. Indeed,
nd E uuse0 β 6= 0.
6= As
0 ewe learned
E [uu 0 ]6=0.in the previous section, if E [X v] 6= 0 then least squar
£ ° ¢§ £ §
consistent. E [X v] = E (Z + u) e ° u 0 Ø = °E uu 0 Ø 6= 0
Como vimos anteriormente, se E [Xv ]6=0 , então o OLS será
£ 0 § the form of the projection coefficient (which is consistently estim
an calculate
nd E uuinconsistente
6= 0. As we learned in the previous section, if E [X v] 6= 0 then least squa
For simplicity suppose that k = 1. We find
nconsistent.
Podemos calcular a forma do coeficiente de projeção (que é
√ £ 2§ !
an calculate the form of estimado
consistentemente the projection
por coefficient
mínimos
E [X v] (which
u
quadrados).
E is consistently
Para estim
simplificar,
§
. For simplicity
suponhasuppose
que k =that k==Ø1.+We
1.Ø Encontramos § = Ø 1° £ § .
£ find
E X2 E X2
√ £ 2§ !
§ £ § u
E [X v]shrinks theE structural
u 2 /E X 2 < 1 the projection § coefficient
Ø = Ø + £ 2§ = Ø 1 ° £ 2§ . parameter Ø towa
measurement error bias or attenuation bias. E X E X
§ £ 2§
u 2 /ESupply
mple: XComo 1Eu
< andthe2Demand.
projection
/EX 2 < 1 ,coefficient
Theo variables shrinks
coeficiente Q de
and the structural
P (quantity
projeção reduzandoparameter towa
price) areØ deter
parâmetro
measurement
emand equation error bias or attenuation bias.
estrutural β para zero. este é chamado de viés de erro de medição ou
viés de atenuação. Q = °Ø1 P + e 1
mple: Supply and Demand. The variables Q and P (quantity and price) are deter
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 13 / 59
Exemplo Oferta e Demanda
As variáveis Q e P (quantidade e preço) são determinadas
conjuntamente pela equação de demanda
Q = −β1 P + e1
Q = β2 P + e2 .
Q = −β1 P + e1
e a equação da oferta
Q = β2 P + e2 .
Q = −β1 P + e1
e a equação da oferta
Q = β2 P + e2 .
Q = −β1 P + e1
e a equação da oferta
ER 12. INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES
Q = β2 P + e2 .
supply equation
Suponha que e = (e1 , e2 ) satisfaça Q = Ø2E[e]
P + e=2 . 0 e Eee0 = I (o último
2
£ 0§
that e =para
(e 1 , esimplificar).
2 ) satisfies EA questão
[e] = 0 andé:
E se
ee = I
regredirmos
2 (the Q em
latter P,
for o que
simplicity). The qu
acontece?
Q on P, what happens?
helpful to solve
É útil for Q and
resolver paraP Q
in eterms
P emoftermos
the errors. In matrix
de erros. Em notation,
notação de matriz
∑ ∏µ ∂ µ ∂
1 Ø1 Q e1
=
1 °Ø2 P e2
Então
µ ∂ ∑ ∏°1 µ ∂
Q 1 Ø1 e1
=
P 1 °Ø2 e2
∑ ∏µ ∂µ ∂
Ø2 Ø1 e1 1
=
1 °1 e2 Ø1 + Ø2
µ ° ¢ ∂
Ø2 e 1 + Ø1 e 2 /(Ø1 + Ø2 )
= .
(e 1 ° e 2 ) /(Ø1 + Ø2 )
E [PQ] Ø2 ° Ø1
ا = £ §= .
E P2 2
ection coefficient
Prof. Flávia ا equals
Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) neither theMQ
demand
II slope Ø1 nor theApril
supply
20, 2021 slope Ø2
15 / 59
Exemplo Oferta e Demanda
Examples - Supply and Demand
Sabemos que a projeção de Q em P produz Q = β ∗ P + e ∗ com
We
E[Pe know
∗] = 0 e othat the projection
coeficiente definidoofpela
qi on pi yields
projeção como
q i = p i + "i
E [pi "i ] = 0
onde
where
E [pi qi ] E [(e1i e2i ) ( 2 e1i + 1 e2i )]
= ⇥ 2⇤ = h i
E pi E (e1i e2i ) 2
2 1
=
2
P
If Estimando
we estimate by OLS, b !
por ⇤ = 2
2
1
6= 1 6= 2.
EsseThat
é o viés da simultaneous
is the equação simultânea
equation bias.
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 16 / 59
Exemplo Salário e Educação
log(wage) = βeduci + ei
log(wage) = βeduci + ei
log(wage) = βeduci + ei
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
12.5 Instruments
Para estimar β de forma consistente, precisamos de informações
To consistently estimate Ø we require additional information. One type of information which is c
adicionais. Um tipo de informação comumente usado em aplicações
monly used in economic applications are what we call instruments.
econômicas é o que chamamos de instrumentos.
E [Z e] = 0 (12.5)
£ §
E Z Z0 > 0 (12.6)
° £ §¢
rank E Z X 0 = k. (12.7)
There are three components to the definition as given. The first (12.5) is that the instruments
uncorrelated with the regression error. The second (12.6) is a normalization which excludes line
Z1 are the included exogenous variables and Z2 are the excluded exogenous vari
riables which could be included in the equation for Y (in the sense that they are un
can be excluded as they have true zero coefficients in the equation. With this notat
he structural equation (12.4) as
Y1 = Z10 Ø1 + Y20 Ø2 + e.
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
.7 Reduced Form
The reduced formreduzida
A forma is the relationship between
é a relação entrethe
osendogenous
regressoresregressors
endógenos Y2 Y
and
2 ethe
osinstr
near reduced form model
instrumentos Z .for
UmY2 is
modelo de forma linear reduzida para Y2 é:
Y2 = °0 Z + u 2 = °012 Z1 + °022 Z2 + u 2
.7 Reduced
.7 Reduced Form
Form
Thereduced
The reduced formreduzida
A forma
form isisthe
therelationship
relationship between
é a relação the
entrethe
between endogenous
osendogenous regressors
regressoresregressors
endógenos YY22 and
and
Y 2 e the instr
osinstru
the
near reduced form model .for
near reduced form model for Y22 is
instrumentos Z UmY is
modelo de forma linear reduzida para Y 2 é:
0 0 0
YY22==°°0 ZZ ++uu22==°°012 Z11++°°022
12Z Z22++uu22
22Z
ss isis aa multivariate
multivariate regression
A matrizregression as introduced
as introduced
de coeficiente, l × k2 , inin éChapter
Γ Chapter
definida11.por
11. Theprojeção
The ``££kk22 coefficient
coefficient matrix °°
linear: matrix
inear projection:
inear projection:
££ §°1 ££
0§°1 0§
§
°°==EE ZZZZ0 EE ZZYY202
££ §§
impliesEE ZZuu2020 ==0.
ssimplies 0. Notice
Noticethat
thatthe
theprojection
projectioncoefficient
coefficient(12.11)
(12.11)isiswell
welldefined
definedand
anduniq
uni
.6).
6).
Wealso
We alsoconstruct
constructthethereduced
reducedform
formfor
forYY.. Substitute
Substitute(12.10)
(12.10)into into(12.9)
(12.9)totoobtain
obtain
0 °° 0 0 ¢¢0
YY11==ZZ101ØØ11++ °°012 Z11++°°022
12Z Z22++uu22 0 ØØ22++ee
22Z
0 0
==ZZ101∏∏11++ZZ202∏∏22++uu11
0
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) ==ZZ0 ∏∏++uu 1 MQ II April 20, 2021 26 / 59
college Grew up in same county as a 4-year college
Forma public
Reduzida Grew up in same county as a 4-year public college
private Grew up in same county as a 4-year private college.
.7 Reduced Form
The reduced formreduzida
A forma is the relationship between
é a relação entrethe
osendogenous
regressoresregressors
endógenos Y2 Y
and
2 ethe
osinstr
near reduced form model
instrumentos Z .for
UmY2 is
modelo de forma linear reduzida para Y2 é:
Y2 = °0 Z + u 2 = °012 Z1 + °022 Z2 + u 2
.7 Reduced
.7 Reduced Form
Form
Thereduced
The reduced formreduzida
A forma
form isisthe
therelationship
relationship between
é a relação the
entrethe
between endogenous
osendogenous regressors
regressoresregressors
endógenos YY22 and
and
Y 2 ethe instr
osinstru
the
nearreduced
near reduced formmodel
form model
instrumentos .for
Z for YY22 isis
Um modelo de forma linear reduzida para Y2 é:
0 0 0
YY22==°°0 ZZ ++uu22==°°012 Z11++°°022
12Z Z22++uu22
22Z
ss isis aa multivariate
multivariate regression
A matrizregression as introduced
as
de coeficiente,introduced
l × k2 , in in éChapter
Γ Chapter
definida 11.por
11. Theprojeção
The ``££kk22 coefficient
coefficient matrix °°
linear: matrix
inearprojection:
inear projection:
££ §°1 ££
0§°1 0§
§
°°==EE ZZZZ0 EE ZZYY202
££ §§
impliesEE ZZuu2020 ==0.
ssimplies 0. Notice
Noticethat
thatthe
theprojection
projectioncoefficient
coefficient(12.11)
(12.11)isiswell
welldefined
definedand
anduniq
uni
.6).
6).
Wealso
We alsoconstruct
constructthethereduced
reducedformformfor forYY.. Substitute
Substitute(12.10)
(12.10)into into(12.9)
(12.9)totoobtain
obtain
0 °° 0 0 ¢¢0
YY11==ZZ101ØØ11++ °°012
12ZZ11++°°022
22ZZ22++uu22 0 ØØ22++ee
0 0
==ZZ101∏∏11++ZZ202∏∏22++uu11
0
==ZZ0 ∏∏++uu11
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 27 / 59
college Grew
college Grewup
upininsame
samecounty
countyas
asaa4-year
4-yearcollege
college
Forma public
Reduzida
public Grew
Grew up
up in
in same
same county
county as
as aa 4-year
4-year publiccollege
public college
private Grew
private Grewup
upininsame
samecounty
countyas
asaa4-year
4-yearprivate
privatecollege.
college.
.7 Reduced
.7 Reduced Form
Form
Thereduced
The reduced formreduzida
A forma
form isisthe
therelationship
relationship between
é a relação the
entrethe
between endogenous
osendogenous regressors
regressoresregressors
endógenos YY22 and
and
Y 2 ethe instr
osinstru
the
nearreduced
near reduced formmodel
form model
instrumentos .for
Z for YY22 isis
Um modelo de forma linear reduzida para Y2 é:
0 0 0
YY22==°°0 ZZ ++uu22==°°012 Z11++°°022
12Z Z22++uu22
22Z
ss isis aa multivariate
multivariate regression
A matrizregression as introduced
as
de coeficiente,introduced
l × k2 , in in éChapter
Γ Chapter
definida 11.por
11. Theprojeção
The ``££kk22 coefficient
coefficient matrix °°
linear: matrix
inearprojection:
inear projection:
££ §°1 ££
0§°1 0§
§
°°==EE ZZZZ0 EE ZZYY202
££ §§
impliesEE ZZuu2020 ==0.
ssimplies 0. Notice
Noticethat
hthat0the
the projectioncoefficient
i projection coefficient(12.11)
(12.11)isiswell
welldefined
definedand
anduniq
uni
.6).
6).
Isso implica que E Zu 2 =0. Observe que o coeficiente de projeção
Wealso
We (12.11)
constructéthe
alsoconstruct bem
the definido
reduced
reduced form
form eforúnico
for em (12.6).
YY.. Substitute
Substitute (12.10)into
(12.10) into(12.9)
(12.9)totoobtain
obtain
0 °° 0 0 ¢¢0
YY11==ZZ101ØØ11++ °°012
12ZZ11++°°022
22ZZ22++uu22 0 ØØ22++ee
0 0
==ZZ101∏∏11++ZZ202∏∏22++uu11
0
==ZZ0 ∏∏++uu11
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 27 / 59
A linear reduced form model for Y2 is
Forma Reduzida
Y2 = °0 Z + u 2 = °012 Z1 + °022 Z2 + u 2
where
∏1 = Ø1 + °12 Ø2
∏2 = °22 Ø2
u 1 = u 20 Ø2 + e.
Onde
∏1 = Ø1 + °12 Ø2 (12.14)
∏2 = °22 Ø2 (12.15)
u 1 = u 20 Ø2 + e.
∏ = °Ø (12.16)
∑ ∏
I k1 °12
°= .
0 °22
m equations for the system are
Y1 = ∏0 Z + u 1
Y2 = °0 Z + u 2 .
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 29 / 59
Y1 = Z10 Ø1 + °012 Z1 + °022 Z2 + u 2 Ø2 + e
Forma °00 ¢0
=ZZ110∏ØReduzida
0
Y1= 11++Z° 2∏ 2 + u1 0
12 Z1 + °22 Z2 + u 2 Ø2 + e
(12.12)
0
=ZZ 0∏∏+
=
1
u 0
1 + 1Z ∏2 + u 1
2
(12.13)
(12.12)
0
= Z ∏ + u1 (12.13)
Onde
∏1 = Ø1 + °12 Ø2 (12.14)
∏∏21=
=°Ø22 Ø
1 +2°12 Ø2
(12.15)
(12.14)
0
u∏12=
=u°222
ØØ + e.
22 (12.15)
Podemos = u 20 Ø2 +escrever
u 1 também e.
∏ = °Ø (12.16)
∑ ∏ = °Ø ∏ (12.16)
I k °12
°= ∑ 1 .
0 °22 ∏
I k1 °12
°= .
m equations for the system
0 °22 are
m equations for the system are
Y1 = ∏0 Z + u 1
0
YY2 =
=°∏0ZZ++uu21.
1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 29 / 59
We can also write
Forma Reduzida
∏ = °Ø
where ∑ ∏
I k1 °12
°= .
0 °22
Juntas, as equações de forma reduzida para o sistema são:
Together, the reduced form equations for the system are
Y1 = ∏0 Z + u 1
Y2 = °0 Z + u 2 .
or ∑ ∏
~= ∏01 ∏2
Y Z +u
°012 °022
where u = (u 1 , u 2 ).
ips (12.14)-(12.16) are critically important for understanding the identification of the
ters Ø1 and 2 , as we discuss
As Øequações below.
de forma These equations
reduzida show the
são projeções, tight relationship
portanto be-
os coeficientes
ters of the structural equations (Ø1 and Ø2 ) and those of the reduced form equations
podem ser estimados por mínimos quadrados (consulte o Capítulo
11).
orm equations are projections, so the coefficients may be estimated by least squares
The least Os estimadores
squares deofmínimos
estimators (12.11) and quadrados
(12.13) arede (12.11) e (12.13) são
√ !°1 √ !
n
X n
X
b 0 0
°= Zi Zi Zi Y2i (12.18)
i =1 i =1
√ !°1 √ !
n
X n
X
b=
∏ Zi Zi0 Zi Y1i (12.19)
i =1 i =1
cation
identified if it is a unique function of the probability distribution of the observables.
that a parameter is identified is to write it as an explicit function of population mo-
ple,
Prof. the
Fláviareduced
Chein (PPG form coefficient
Economia - UFJF) matricesMQ
° and
II ∏ are identified since they
April can be
20, 2021 31 / 59
Endogeneidade e Variável Instrumental
1 Introdução
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
Identificação
These are uniquely determined by the probability distribution of (Y , Y , Z ) if Definition 12.1 holds, since
£ § 1 2
this includes the requirement that E Z Z 0 is invertible.
We are interested in the structural parameter Ø. It relates to (∏, °) through (12.16). Ø is identified if
it uniquely determined by this relation. This is a set of ` equations with k unknowns with ` ∏ k. From
linear algebra we know that there is a unique solution if and only if ° has full rank k.
≥ ¥
rank ° = k. (12.22)
Podemos escrever
Under (12.22), Ø can be uniquely solved from (12.16). If (12.22) fails then (12.16) has fewer equations
than coefficients so there is not a unique solution.
£ §°1 £ §
We can write ° = E Z Z 0 E Z X 0 (since the projection of X 1 onto Z is simply X 1 .) Thus (12.16) is
the same as
£ §°1 £ §°1 £ §
E Z Z0 E [Z Y1 ] = E Z Z 0 E ZX0 Ø
or
£ §
E [Z Y1 ] = E Z X 0 Ø
which is a set of ` equations with k unknowns. This has a unique solution if (and only if)
° £ §¢
rank E Z X 0 = k (12.23)
which was listed in (12.7) as a condition of Definition 12.1. (Indeed, this is why it was listed as part
of the definition.) We can also see that (12.22) and (12.23) are equivalent ways of expressing the same
requirement. If this condition fails then Ø will not be identified. The condition (12.22)-(12.23) is called
the relevance condition.
It is useful to have explicit expressions for the solution Ø. The easiest case is when ` = k. Then (12.22)
°1
implies ° is invertible, so the structural parameter equals Ø = ° ∏. It is a unique solution because ° and
∏ are unique and ° is invertible.
Identificação
These are uniquely determined by the probability distribution of (Y , Y , Z ) if Definition 12.1 holds, since
£ § 1 2
this includes the requirement that E Z Z 0 is invertible.
We are interested in the structural parameter Ø. It relates to (∏, °) through (12.16). Ø is identified if
it uniquely determined by this relation. This is a set of ` equations with k unknowns with ` ∏ k. From
linear algebra we know that there is a unique solution if and only if ° has full rank k.
≥ ¥
rank ° = k. (12.22)
Podemos escrever
Under (12.22), Ø can be uniquely solved from (12.16). If (12.22) fails then (12.16) has fewer equations
than coefficients so there is not a unique solution.
£ §°1 £ §
We can write ° = E Z Z 0 E Z X 0 (since the projection of X 1 onto Z is simply X 1 .) Thus (12.16) is
the same as
£ §°1 £ §°1 £ §
E Z Z0 E [Z Y1 ] = E Z Z 0 E ZX0 Ø
or
£ §
E [Z Y1 ] = E Z X 0 Ø
which is a set of ` equations with k unknowns. This has a unique solution if (and only if)
° £ §¢
rank E Z X 0 = k (12.23)
which was listed in (12.7) as a condition of Definition 12.1. (Indeed, this is why it was listed as part
Essas condições
of the definition.) sãoalsochamadas
We can deand
see that (12.22) condições de relevância.
(12.23) are equivalent ways of expressing the same
requirement. If this condition fails then Ø will not be identified. The condition (12.22)-(12.23) is called
the relevance condition.
It is useful to have explicit expressions for the solution Ø. The easiest case is when ` = k. Then (12.22)
°1
implies ° is invertible, so the structural parameter equals Ø = ° ∏. It is a unique solution because ° and
∏ are unique and ° is invertible.
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
Substituindo os momentos
Replacing the populationpopulacionais
moments by thepelos
samplemomentos amostrais,
moments gives the
instrumental variable estimator
temos o estimador de variáveis instrumentais
n
! 1 n
!
b 1X 1X
IV = z i x 0i z i yi
n n
i=1 i=1
n
! 1 n
!
X X
0
= zixi z i yi
i=1 i=1
1
= Z 0X Z 0y
he IV estimator
como for Ø using thede
o estimador instrument
Variável W .
Instrumental para β utilizando o
Alternatively, recall that when ` = k the structural parameter can be written as a functi
instrumento W . °1
uced form parameters as Ø = ° ∏. Replacing ° and ∏ by their least squares estimators (12.1
can construct what is called the Indirect Least Squares (ILS) estimator. Using the matr
esentations
Øbils = °
b°1 ∏b
≥° ¢°1 ° 0 ¢¥°1 ≥° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢¥
= Z 0Z Z X Z Z Z Y1
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF)
° 0
¢°1 ° ¢
0 II
MQ
° 0
¢°1 ° 0
¢ April 20, 2021 39 / 59
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador
e generally, de variable
given any Variáveis
W 2 RInstrumentais
k
it is common to refer to the estimator
√ !°1 √ !
n
X X n
Øbiv = 0
Wi X i Wi Y1i
De modo alternativo, lembre-se
i =1
que, quando i =1
l=
k, o parâmetro
estrutural pode ser escrito como função da forma reduzida dos
he IV estimator for Ø using
parâmtros: β = the
Γ−1instrument W.
λ. Substituindo Γe λ por seus estimadores OLS,
Alternatively, recall that when ` = k the structural parameter can be written as a functi
podemos construir o que chamados de ILS estimator - Estimador
uced form parameters as Ø = °°1 ∏. Replacing ° and ∏ by their least squares estimators (12.1
Indireto de Mínimos Quadrados.
can construct what is called the Indirect Least Squares (ILS) estimator. Using the matr
Pela
esentations representação de álgebra matricial:
Øbils = ° b
b°1 ∏
≥° ¢°1 ° 0 ¢¥°1 ≥° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢¥
= Z 0Z Z X Z Z Z Y1
° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢ ° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢
= Z X Z Z Z Z Z Y1
° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢
= Z X Z Y1 .
0 0 0 0 0
Z ê = Z Y1 − Z X (Z X )−1 (Z Y1 ) = 0
0 0 0 0 0
Z ê = Z Y1 − Z X (Z X )−1 (Z Y1 ) = 0
Dado que Z inclui o intercepto, isso significa que os resíduos somam
zero e não estão correlacionados com os instrumentos incluídos e
excluídos.
0 0 0 0 0
Z ê = Z Y1 − Z X (Z X )−1 (Z Y1 ) = 0
Dado que Z inclui o intercepto, isso significa que os resíduos somam
zero e não estão correlacionados com os instrumentos incluídos e
excluídos.
Para ilustrar a regressão IV, estimamos as equações de forma reduzida
para a proximidade da faculdade (faculdade), agora tratando educação
como endógena e usando faculdade como variável instrumental.
Of particular interest is the equation for the endogenous regressor (education), and the coefficients
. for the excluded instruments – in this case college. The estimated coefficient equals 0.347 with a small
standard error. This implies that growing up near a 4-year college increases average educational attain-
Prof. Flávia Chein ment
(PPGbyEconomia
0.3 years.- This
UFJF) MQ magnitude.
seems to be a reasonable II April 20, 2021 42 / 59
Endogeneidade e Variável Instrumental
1 Introdução
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
Thus the demeaning equations for least squares carry over to the IV estimator. The coeffi
ator Øbiv isEm
a function
muitosonly of the
casos, demeaned
incluindo data.
o exemplo de proximidade de Card, o
instrumento excluído é uma variável binária (dummy).
2.11 Wald
VamosEstimator
nos concentrar nesse caso e supor que o modelo tenha apenas
um regressor endógeno e nenhum outro regressor além do intercepto.
In many cases, including the Card proximity example, the excluded instrument is a binar
O modelo
riable. Let’s focus on pode ser and
that case, escrito em Ythat
suppose =the
X βmodel
+α+ e just
has comoneE[e|Z ]=0eZ
endogenous regres
her regressors beyond the intercept. The model can be written as Y = X Ø + Æ + e with E [e |
binário.
binary.
Considere as expectativas da equação estrutural dado Z = 1 e Z = 0,
Take expectations of the structural equation given Z = 1 and Z = 0, respectively. We obtai
respectivamente. Nós obtemos
E [Y | Z = 1] = E [X | Z = 1] Ø + Æ
E [Y | Z = 0] = E [X | Z = 0] Ø + Æ.
E [Y | Z = 1] ° E [Y | Z = 0]
Ø= .
E [X | Z = 1] ° E [X | Z = 0]
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 44 / 59
E [Y | Z = 1] = E [X | Z = 1] Ø + Æ
Estimador de Wald E [Y | Z = 0] = E [X | Z = 0] Ø + Æ.
Obtemos
Subtracting a seguinte
and dividing, expressão
we obtain paraforothe
an expression coeficiente de inclinação
slope coefficient
E [Y | Z = 1] ° E [Y | Z = 0]
Ø= . (1
E [X | Z = 1] ° E [X | Z = 0]
The natural moment estimator replaces the expectations by the averages within the “grouped d
where Zi = 1 and Zi = 0, respectively. That is, define the group means
Pn Pn
Zi Yi i =1 (1 ° Zi ) Yi
Y 1 = Pi =1n , Y 0 = Pn
Z i (1 ° Zi )
Pni =1 Pni =1
i =1 Z i X i i =1 (1 ° Zi ) X i
X1 = P n , X0 = P n
Z
i =1 i i =1 (1 ° Zi )
Estimador
and similarly
de Wald ≥ ¥≥
X1 ° X = 1° Z X1 ° X0
¥
and hence ≥ ¥≥ ¥
1° Z Y 1 °Y 0
Øbiv = ≥ ¥≥ ¥ = Øb
1° Z X1°X0
Based on these estimates the Wald estimator of the slope coefficient is (6.311 ° 6.156) / (13.527 ° 12.698) =
0.19, the same as the IV estimator.
Y1 = Z 0 °Ø + u 1
E [Z u 1 ] = 0.
0
Defining W = ° Z we can write this as
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 47 / 59
Endogeneidade e Variável Instrumental
1 Introdução
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
12.12 Vimos,
Two-Stage Least
até aqui, Squares IV para o caso em que l = k. Vamos
o estimador
agora trabalhar com l ≥ k
The IV estimator described in the previous section presumed ` = k. Now we allow the general c
of ` ∏ k.Examinando a forma reduzida,
Examining the reduced-form equation vimos que
(12.13) we see
Y1 = Z 0 °Ø + u 1
E [Z u 1 ] = 0.
0
Defining W = ° Z we can write this as
Y1 = W 0 Ø + u 1
E [W u 1 ] = 0.
One way of thinking about this is that Z is set of candidate instruments. The instrument vector W =
is a k-dimentional set of linear combinations.
0
Suppose that ° were known. Then we would estimate Ø by least squares of Y1 on W = ° Z
° ¢°1 ° 0 ¢ ≥ 0 0 ¥°1 ≥ 0 0 ¥
Øb = W 0W W Y = ° Z Z° ° Z Y1 .
While this is infeasible, we can estimate ° from the reduced form regression. Replacing ° with its e
° ¢ ° ¢
mator ° b = Z 0 Z °1 Z 0 X we obtain
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 49 / 59
education 13.527 12.698
Based on these estimates the Wald estimator of the slope coefficient is (6.311 ° 6.156) / (13.5
Estimador
Based
9, the the de
sameonasthese Mínimos
estimates Quadrados
the Wald estimator
IV estimator. em
of the slope DoisisEstágios
coefficient (6.311 ° 6.156) / (13.527 ° 12
0.19, the same as the IV estimator.
0
0 0 Y1 = W 0 Ø + u 1
DefiningDefinindo
W = ° Z weW
can=
writeZthis,podemos
Γ̄ this as escrever:
fining W= ° Z we can write as
E [W u 1 ] = 0.0
Y1 = W Ø0+ u 1
Y1 = W Ø + u 1
E [W u 1 ] = 0.
of thinking about this is that Z is set of ucandidate instruments. The instrument v
E [W 1 ] = 0.
mentional
One way of set of linear
thinking about combinations.
this is that Z is set of candidate instruments. The instrument vector W =
eose
iswaythat ° were
of Se
thinking
a k-dimentional known.
about
set of thisThen
linear
Γ̄ for conhecida, weZ would
is set ofestimate
iscombinations.
that
estimamos by least squares
candidateØinstruments. of Y1 on Wvecto
The instrument =°
0
Suppose thatset
k-dimentional ° were known.
of linear Then we would estimate Ø by least squares of Y1 on W = ° Z
combinations.
° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢ ≥≥ 0 0 ¥ ¥≥°1 ≥ 0 ¥ 0 ¥ 0
b
Suppose that ° were known.
Ø = W °W0 we
Then ¢°1would
W° 0Y ¢estimate
= °0 Z
0 Z°
Ø°1by least
0 0° squares
Z Y 1 . of Y1 on W = ° Z
Øb = W W W Y = ° Z Z° 1 °Z Y .
° 0 ¢°1 ° 0 ¢ ≥ 0 0 ¥°1 ≥ 0 0 ¥
Øb = W W W Y = ° Z Z° ° Z Y1 .
isWhile
is infeasible, we canwe estimate ° °from
from the reduced form regression. Replacing
° with its °
° 0 this ¢ °is° infeasible,
b °1 0 0 °1¢
¢ ° 0 ¢
can estimate the reduced form regression. Replacing e
mator
=Prof.Z Flávia = Z Z
Z CheinZ(PPG
° Z X
X Economiawe
we obtainobtain
- UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 49 / 59
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
b . Recall, X = [Z 1 , Y 2 ] and Z
It is useful to scrutinize the projection X
£ § £ §
b
Z 1 since Z 1 lies in the span of Z . Then X = X b 1 , Yb 2 = Z 1 , Yb 2 . This sh
regress Y1 on Z1 and Yb2 . This means that only the endogenous variabl
values, Yb2 = °
b0 Z1 + °
12
b0 Z2 .
22
3. E kX k2 < 1.
4. E kZ k2 < 1.
£ §
5. E Z Z 0 is positive definite.
£ §
6. E Z X 0 has full rank k.
7. E [Z e] = 0.
Assumptions 12.1.2-4 state that all variables have finite variances. Assumption 12.1.5 states tha
instrument
Prof. Flávia Cheinvector has an -invertible
(PPG Economia design matrix,
UFJF) MQ II which is identical to the core
April assumption
20, 2021 52abou
/ 59
Consistência do 2SLS
Assumptions 12.1.2-4 state that all variables have finite variances. Assumption 12.1.5 states tha
instrument vector has an invertible design matrix, which is identical to the core assumption abou
gressors in the linear regression model. This excludes linearly redundant instruments. Assumpt
12.1.6 and 12.1.7 are the key identification conditions for instrumental variables. Assumption 1
states that the instruments and regressors have a full-rank cross-moment matrix. This is often called
relevance condition. Assumption 12.1.7 states that the instrumental variables and structural erro
uncorrelated. Assumptions 12.1.5-7 are identical to Definition 12.1.
TheA prova
proof é theorem
of the similar isa provided
que vimos below.para OLS.
This theorem shows that the 2SLS estimator is consistent for the structural coefficient Ø under sim
moment conditions as the least squares estimator. The key differences are the instrumental varia
° £ §¢
assumption E [Z e] = 0 and the identification assumption rank E Z X 0 = k.
The result includes the IV estimator (when ` = k) as a special case.
The proof of this consistency result is similar to that for the least squares estimator. Take the st
tural equation Y = X Ø + e in matrix format and substitute it into the expression for the estimator
obtain
≥ ° ¢°1 0 ¥°1 0 ° 0 ¢°1 0 ° ¢
Øb2sls = X 0 Z Z 0 Z Z X X Z Z Z Z XØ+e
≥ ° ¢ ¥°1 ° ¢
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) 0 °1 II 0
0 MQ 0 0 °1 0 April 20, 2021 53 / 59
We now show that the 2SLS estimator satisfies a central limit theorem. We first state a set of suffic
Disitribuição Assintótica do 2SLS
regularity conditions.
2. E kZ k4 < 1.
£ §
3. ≠ = E Z Z 0 e 2 is positive definite.
Assumption 12.2 strengthens Assumption 12.1 by requiring that the dependent variable and ins
ments have finite fourth moments. This is used to establish the central limit theorem.
where
° ¢°1 ° ¢° ¢°1
V Ø = Q X Z Q °1
ZZQZX Q X Z Q °1 °1 °1
Z Z ≠Q Z Z Q Z X Q X Z Q Z Z Q Z X .
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 54 / 59
Assumption
We now show 12.2 estimator
that the 2SLS In addition
Disitribuição Assintótica do 2SLS to Assumption
satisfies a central12.1,
limit theorem. We first state a set of suffic
regularity conditions.£ §
1. E Y14 < 1.
2. E kZ k4 < 1.
Assumption 12.2 In addition to Assumption 12.1,
£ §
3. ≠£= E§ Z Z 0 e 2 is positive definite.
4
1. E Y1 < 1.
2. E kZ k4 < 1.
£ §
Assumption3.12.2 ≠= E Z Z 0 e 2 isAssumption
strengthens 12.1 by requiring that the dependent variable and in
positive definite.
ments have finite fourth moments. This is used to establish the central limit theorem.
where
Theorem 12.2 Under Assumption 12.2, as n ! 1.
° p¢°1° °Q Q °1 ¢ ° ¢¢ ° ¢°1
V Ø = Q X Z Q °1
ZZQZX n Ø b2sls ≠QN°1
X Z° ØZ Z°! Q Z X Q X Z Q °1
Z Z0,V ZZQZX .
Ø
d
where
° ¢°1 ° p ¢° ¢°1
This shows thatVthe Ø =2SLS Q °1
Q X Zestimator
ZZQZX Q X Z Q °1
converges at a °1n rate to a normal°1 random
Z Z ≠Q Z Z Q Z X Q X Z Q Z Z Q Z X . vector. It show
Prof. Flávia Chein (PPG Economia - UFJF) MQ II April 20, 2021 54 / 59
Disitribuição Assintótica do 2SLS
√
Isso mostra que o estimador 2SLS converge a uma taxa n para um
vetor aleatório normal.
√
Isso mostra que o estimador 2SLS converge a uma taxa n para um
vetor aleatório normal.
Mostra também a forma da matriz de covariância. O último assume
uma forma substancialmente mais complicada do que o estimador de
mínimos quadrados.
√
Isso mostra que o estimador 2SLS converge a uma taxa n para um
vetor aleatório normal.
Mostra também a forma da matriz de covariância. O último assume
uma forma substancialmente mais complicada do que o estimador de
mínimos quadrados.
Como no caso da estimativa de mínimos quadrados, a variância
assintótica simplifica sob a condição de homocedasticidade.
2 Visão Geral
3 Exemplos
4 Variável Instrumental
Forma Reduzida
Identificação
Estimador de Variáveis Instrumentais
Estimador de Wald
Estimador de Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios
X (0) = 0 X (0) = 1
X (1) = 0 Never Takers Deniers
X (1) = 1 Compliers Always Takers