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Flávia Chein
Qn
If {zi }ni=1 are i.i.d., then L (✓) = L (✓|z1 , . . . , zn ) = i=1 f (zi ; ✓).
Solutions
Solução of a optimization
do problema problemnão
de otimização do se
notaltera
changesob
under
umaa monotonic
transformation of the objective function. Therefore,
transformação monotônica da função objetivo
n
!
Y
✓bML = arg max ln f (zi ; ✓) .
✓2⇥
i=1
Qn
If {zi }ni=1 are i.i.d., then L (✓) = L (✓|z1 , . . . , zn ) = i=1 f (zi ; ✓).
Solutions
Solução of a optimization
do problema problemnão
de otimização do se
notaltera
changesob
under
umaa monotonic
transformation of the objective function. Therefore,
transformação monotônica da função objetivo
n
!
Y
✓bML = arg max ln f (zi ; ✓) .
✓2⇥
i=1
log transformations
A transformação allows
para log for simplifications
permite simplificaçõesin the
na numerical
determinação
determination of the estimator as well as in the study of its properties.
numérica do estimador bem como no estudo de suas propriedades.
SeIfZZ∼⇠ff(Z
(Z ,; θ✓ 0 )), então
o
then bypela
the versão
strict version
estritaofda
thedesigualdade
Jensen’s Inequality,
de Jensen
f (Z ; ✓)
E [ln f (Z ; ✓)] E [ln f (Z ; ✓ 0 )] = E ln
f (Z ; ✓ 0 )
f (Z ; ✓)
< ln E
f (Z ; ✓ 0 )
✓Z ◆
f (Z ; ✓)
= ln f (Z ; ✓ 0 )dZ
f (Z ; ✓ 0 )
0 1
Z
B C
= ln B
@ f (Z ; ✓)dZ A = 0.
C
| {z }
=1
Nathalie
Flávia CheinGimenes (PUC-Rio) Econometrics
MQ II - Lecture 6 PUC-Rio
April 19, 2021 65//33
10
Uma Motivação para o Método de Máxima
Verossimilhança
A Motivation for the Maximum Likelihood Method
Logo, Therefore,
Flávia Chein Nathalie Gimenes (PUC-Rio) MQ II Econometrics - Lecture 6 April 19, 2021 6PUC-Ri
/ 10
Modelos Condicionais
f (z 1 , . . . , z n ; ✓) = f (y1 , . . . , yn |x 1 , . . . , x n , ✓) f (x 1 , . . . , x n ) .
f (z 1 , . . . , z n ; ✓) = f (y1 , . . . , yn |x 1 , . . . , x n , ✓) f (x 1 , . . . , x n ) .
. .1., ,. z. .n,;z✓)
f (z 1f ,(z ==
n ; ✓) f (y 1 ,1.,.. .. ,. y
f (y ✓)ff (x(x1 ,1., ....,.x,nx)n. ) .
, ynn|x|x11,,.... . , x nn,,✓)
In other
In other words,
words, ✓ parameterizesthe
✓ parameterizes thedependence
dependence of uponx ix. i .
of yyi i upon
Em outras palavras, θ parametriza a dependência de yi sobre xi
Sob as hipóteses
Under thethe
Under A1-A7 A1-A7,
assumption
assumption A1-A7,
2
yy|X
|X ⇠
⇠NN XX , , I2nI n. .
Therefore, the conditional density of y given X is
Logo,Therefore, the conditional
a densidade condicionaldensity of y given
de ydado X é X is
1 0
f (y |X ) = (2⇡ 22 ) n/2
n/2
exp 12 (y X ) (y0 X ) .
f (y |X ) = (2⇡ ) exp 2
2
(y X ) (y X ) .
2
No assumption about the marginal distribution of X .
No assumption about the marginal distribution of X .
Sob as hipóteses
Under thethe
Under A1-A7 A1-A7,
assumption
assumption A1-A7,
2
yy|X
|X ⇠
⇠NN XX , , I2nI n. .
Therefore, the conditional density of y given X is
Logo,Therefore, the conditional
a densidade condicionaldensity of y given
de ydado X é X is
1 0
f (y |X ) = (2⇡ 22 ) n/2
n/2
exp 12 (y X ) (y0 X ) .
f (y |X ) = (2⇡ ) exp 2
2
(y X ) (y X ) .
2
No assumption about the marginal distribution of X .
No assumption about the marginal distribution of X .
Nenhuma hipótese sobre a distribuição marginal de X
A função de máxima
The likelihood verossimilhança
function a serinmaximizada
to be maximized no model
the conditional modelo
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
ln(2⇡) ln( 2
) 2
(y X )0 (y X ) + ln f (X ) (1)
2 2 2
A função de máxima
The likelihood verossimilhança
function a serinmaximizada
to be maximized no model
the conditional modelo
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
ln(2⇡) ln( 2
) 2
(y X )0 (y X ) + ln f (X ) (1)
2 2 2
A função de máxima
The likelihood verossimilhança
function a serinmaximizada
to be maximized no model
the conditional modelo
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
ln(2⇡) ln( 2
) 2
(y X )0 (y X ) + ln f (X ) (1)
2 2 2
A função de máxima
The likelihood verossimilhança
function a serinmaximizada
to be maximized no model
the conditional modelo
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
ln(2⇡) ln( 2
) 2
(y X )0 (y X ) + ln f (X ) (1)
2 2 2
A função de máxima
The likelihood
Relation verossimilhança
function
betweento beMaximum a serinmaximizada
maximized no
the conditional
Likelihood modelo
andmodel
Least Squ
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
The likelihood
ln(2⇡) ln( 2 ) function
2
(y to X )0 (y X in
be maximized ) the
+ lnconditional
f (X ) (1) mod
2 2 2
above is, where ✓ = , 2 ,
(1) The last componentn of (1) doesn not depend
2 1 on ✓. 0
ln(2⇡)2 ln( ) X ) (yto Xamounts
(y respect ) + ln f (X
Notecomponente
O último 2 de b0(1)
that, for a given ML ,não
maximizing
2 depende 2(1)2dewith
θ
to minimize (y X ) (y X ), i.e. the sum of squared errors.
Note que, para The
um dado σdML ,maximizar (1) not
comdepend
respeito
on a
✓. β
Therefore, bML last
= bcomponent
OLS .
of (1) does
corresponde a⇣minimizar⌘ ⇣a soma dos
⌘ 2resíduos quadrados
a given b (n, maximizing
2 0= 1 yNoteXthat,
b for (1) with respect to am
0
k) 2
bML
(y − Xβ) (yn− to
Xβ) y X b =ML s .
minimize (y X )0 (y n X ), i.e. the sum of squared errors
2 is biased. b = b
Logo,bβ̂ML
ML = β̂OLS .
Therefore, ML OLS .
⇣ ⌘0 ⇣ ⌘
(n k) 2
2 =
bML 1
n y Xb y Xb = n s .
b2ML
Nathalie Gimenes (PUC-Rio)
is biased. Econometrics - Lecture 6 PUC-Rio 12 / 33
A função de máxima
The likelihood
Relation verossimilhança
function
betweento beMaximum a serinmaximizada
maximized no
the conditional
Likelihood modelo
andmodel
Least Squ
condicional é, where
above is, = (β,, σ22 ),
onde ✓θ = ,
n n 1
The likelihood
ln(2⇡) ln( 2 ) function
2
(y to X )0 (y X in
be maximized ) the
+ lnconditional
f (X ) (1) mod
2 2 2
above is, where ✓ = , 2 ,
(1) The last componentn of (1) doesn not depend
2 1 on ✓. 0
ln(2⇡)2 ln( ) X ) (yto Xamounts
(y respect ) + ln f (X
Notecomponente
O último 2 de b0(1)
that, for a given ML ,não
maximizing
2 depende 2(1)2dewith
θ
to minimize (y X ) (y X ), i.e. the sum of squared errors.
Note que, para The
um dado σdML ,maximizar (1) not
comdepend
respeito
on a
✓. β
Therefore, bML last
= bcomponent
OLS .
of (1) does
corresponde a⇣minimizar⌘ ⇣a soma dos
⌘ 2resíduos quadrados
a given b (n, maximizing
2 0= 1 yNoteXthat,
b for (1) with respect to am
0
k) 2
bML
(y − Xβ) (yn− to
Xβ) y X b =ML s .
minimize (y X )0 (y n X ), i.e. the sum of squared errors
2 is biased. b = b
Logo,bβ̂ML
ML = β̂OLS .
Therefore, ML OLS .
⇣ ⌘0 ⇣ ⌘
(n k) 2
2 =
bML 1
n y Xb y Xb = n s .