The Science of Climate Change

FILIPE DUARTE SANTOS

fdsantos@fc.ul.pt
CCIAM – CE3C Centre for Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation and Modelling
Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa
http://cciam.fc.ul.pt/
Conselho Nacional do Ambiente e do Desenvolvimento
Sustentável
Colóquio do Departamento de Física
Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa
Lisboa, 18 de maio de 2022
Jean Baptiste Joseph
Fourier (1768-1830),
matemático e físico
(filósofo natural)
francês , fez um
trabalho pioneiro em
matemática e nas
teorias das vibrações e
do calor. Foi o primeiro
a descobrir que a
presença da atmosfera
terrestre eleva a
temperatura à
superfície da Terra, ou
seja, a descobrir o
chamado efeito de
estufa.
 EFEITO DE ESTUFA
• Joseph Fourier (1768-1830)
Fez a primeira estimativa da temperatura média global da
troposfera a partir da luminosidade do Sol, tendo obtido um
valor muito inferior a 15º C. Qual a razão para a discrepância?
“A temperatura à altura do solo aumenta devido à interposição
da atmosfera, porque o calor solar enfrenta menos obstáculos
para penetrar o ar, quando se encontra no estado de luz, do
que enfrenta para tornar a atravessar o ar quando convertido
em calor obscuro” (Fourier, 1827).
“Memoire sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des
espaces planetaires”, Mémoires de l’Academie Royale des
Sciences, 7 (1827), pag. 569-604.
O “calor obscuro” são os “raios caloríficos” de William
Herschel (1738 -1822) e a radiação infravermelha atual
• John Tyndall (1820-1893)

Mediu pela primeira vez a capacidade de absorção e

emissão da radiação infravermelha dos principais
gases constituintes da atmosfera (N2, O2, H2O, CO2,
CH4). Conclui que o H2O, CO2 e CH4 absorvem a
radiação infravermelha, isto é, são gases com efeito
de estufa.

“On radiation through the Earth’s Atmosphere”,

Philosophical Magazine, ser. 4, 24 (1863) pag. 204-
205.
Svante August Arrhenius
(1859-1927) foi um cientista
sueco. Originalmente um
físico, mas frequentemente
referido como químico,
Arrhenius foi um dos
fundadores da ciência da
química física. Recebeu o
Prémio Nobel da Química em
1903, tornando-se o primeiro
laureado sueco com o Prémio
Nobel.
Em 1895 Arrhenius quantificou
a influência do aumento da
concentração atmosférica de
CO2 sobre a temperatura
média da atmosfera à
superfície, o que exigiu fazer
cálculos longos e complexos à
mão.
• Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927)
Fez as primeiras estimativas da sensibilidade
climática da atmosfera (aumento da temperatura
média global que resulta da duplicação da
concentração do CO2 atmosférico), obtendo
inicialmente valores entre 5º e 6º C que depois
reavaliou para 4º C em 1906.
“On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon
temperature”, Philosophical Magazine, 41 (1896)
pag. 237-276
 100 30 70

20

50 50
Fonte, Peixoto and Oort, The Physics of Climate, American Physical Society, 1992
Solar Constant Variations1978-2003
The electromagnetic energy flux received from the Sun at the average distance
between the Earth and the Sun at the top of the atmosphere in an area of 1 m2
perpendicular to the solar rays is 1366.1 Wm-2 and is called the solar constant
(Frohlich, 2000).
Solar radiant energy reaching the Earth system has therefore a power of 174 PW
(one petawatt or 1015 W) (Smil, 2008). Because the Earth has an albedo of around
0.3, only 70% of solar radiation, predominantly within the visible range, is
absorbed.
The total solar energy power absorbed by the Earth is therefore 121.8 PW. This
solar radiant power accumulates during one year an energy of 3.841 X 106 EJ, which
is about 6580 times more energy that the total primary energy supplied worldwide
in 2017. In 2050 this ratio is projected to decrease to about 3841.
The world total primary energy was 583,8 EJ in 2017 and is predicted to reach 1000
EJ in 2050
Pierrehumbert, Physics Today, 2011
Pierrehubert,Physics Today, 2011
Pierrehubert,Physics Today, 2011
Fonte Houghton, 1994
Retroacções positivas

- Aumento da concentração de vapor de água, que é um

gás com efeito de estufa, devido ao aumento da temperatura
média global da atmosfera

- Redução do gelo oceânico nos polos, que aumenta a absorção de radiação

- Emissões de metano provenientes das regiões com

permafrost

- Diminuição da capacidade de sequestro do CO2 pelas florestas

Retroacções negativas

- Aumento da nebulosidade devido à maior quantidade de

vapor de água
O forçamento radiativo exprime-se
em W/m2 e mede o desequilíbrio no
balanço radiativo na tropopausa, ou
seja, a variação da irradiância
vertical na troposfera provocada
por uma alteração interna ou
externa à atmosfera
Radiative forcing Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus
upward, irradiance (expressed in W m–2) at the tropopause or top of
atmosphere due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as,
for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of
the Sun.

Sometimes internal drivers are still treated as forcings even though they result from
the alteration in climate, for example aerosol or greenhouse gas changes in
paleoclimates. The traditional radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric
properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric
temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative
forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is
accounted for. The radiative forcing once rapid adjustments are accounted for is
termed the effective radiative forcing. For the purposes of this report,
radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless
otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value. Radiative forcing is not
to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, which describes an unrelated measure of
the impact of clouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.
IPCC AR5
So the Earth absorbs about 121.8 PW of power from the sun. What
happens to this energy? It has to be returned to outer space otherwise
the Earth’s atmospheric temperature would be continuously increasing.
In other words the Earth´s system is always moving towards energy
balance in which case the incoming energy is equal to the outgoing
energy. However, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have
displaced the Earth from its energy balance state since they cause a
positive radiative forcing in the troposphere.

The total anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2011 relative to 1750 is

2.29 (1.13 to 3.33) Wm-2 and has increased more rapidly since 1970
than in previous decades (IPCC, 2013).
The IPCC AR5 has estimated that the Earth’s climate system has gained 274000 EJ of
thermal energy during the period 1971-2010, due to the enhanced greenhouse effect
caused by the greenhouse gases emissions.
This energy increase corresponds to a power rate of 0.213 PW in a linear fit to the
annual values over that period. This power amounts to an annual energy increase
of 6717 EJ, which is about 16.6 times larger than the mean annual global supply
of all forms of primary energy used by mankind in the 1971-2017 period (IEA,
2019b). In other words, the mean global fossil energy consumption in that period is
the main cause for the Earth’s climate system large annual energy increase. It is the
main cause in the sense that the radiative forcing of all well-mixed greenhouse gases
with anthropogenic emissions arises mostly from CO 2. For instance, in 2011, the total
radiative forcing from greenhouse gas emissions was 2.83 Wm -2, while the radiative
forcing from CO2 emissions was 1.82 Wm-2, which represents 64% of the total (IPCC,
2013).
IPCC 2014 scenarios of climate change

4 Representative Concentration Pathways

Lei de Stefan
s
 Concentração
atmosférica de CO2 96,5% 0,04% 95,3%
Aquecimento devido ao
466º C 33º C 3º C
efeito de estufa
Temperatura à superfície 427º C 15º C -53º C
The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response
of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi-
century time scales. It is defined as the change in global
mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a
doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium
climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high
confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high
confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium
confidence). The lower temperature limit of the assessed
likely range is thus less than the 2°C in the AR4, but the
upper limit is the same. This assessment reflects improved
understanding, the extended temperature record in the
atmosphere and ocean, and new estimates of radiative
forcing. {TFE6.1, Figure 1; Box 12.2}
IPCC AR5 WGI
Frequency distribution of climate sensitivity, based on model simulations. Few of
the simulations result in less than 2 °C of warming—near the low end of estimates
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Some simulations
result in significantly more than the 4 °C, which is at the high end of the IPCC
estimates. This pattern (statisticians call it a "right-skewed distribution")
suggests that if carbon dioxide concentrations double, the probability of very large
increases in temperature is greater than the probability of very small increases.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) An index, based upon
radiative properties of well-mixed greenhouse
gases, measuring the radiative forcing following a pulse
emission of a unit mass of a given well-mixed
greenhouse gas in the present-day atmosphere integrated
over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of
carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined
effect of the differing times these gases remain in the
atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in
absorbing outgoing terrestrial radiation. The Kyoto
Protocol is based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a
100-year time frame.
where TH is the time horizon over which the calculation is
considered; ax is the radiative efficiency due to a unit increase in
atmospheric abundance of the substance (i.e., Wm−2 kg−1) and
[x(t)] is the time-dependent decay in abundance of the substance
following an instantaneous release of it at time t=0. The
denominator contains the corresponding quantities for CO2.
Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various
greenhouse gases.

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.

Chemical Lifetime Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon
Gas name
formula (years)
20-yr 100-yr 500-yr

Carbon dioxide CO2 See above 1 1 1

Methane CH4 12 72 25 7.6

Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 153

CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 11 000 10 900 5 200

HCFC-22 CHClF2 12 5 160 1 810 549

Tetrafluoromethane CF4 50 000 5 210 7 390 11 200

Hexafluoroethane C2F6 10 000 8 630 12 200 18 200

Sulphur hexafluoride SF6 3 200 16 300 22 800 32 600

Nitrogen trifluoride NF3 740 12 300 17 200 20 700

A concentração de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera
aumentou 49% desde o início da Revolução Industrial

419 ppmv, maio de 2021

Fonte:
Source: Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: Another Year Another Record, 25 October 2021
 Fontes:

Annual averages of global air temperature at a height of two metres estimated change since the pre-industrial period
(left-hand axis) and relative to 1991-2020 (right-hand axis) according to different datasets: Red bars: ERA5 (ECMWF
Copernicus Climate Change Service, C3S); Dots: GISTEMPv4 (NASA); HadCRUT5 (Met Office Hadley Centre);
NOAAGlobalTempv5 (NOAA), JRA-55 (JMA); and Berkeley Earth. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF
Source: Tierney et al.,
2020
 Trajetória para
2,0 ⁰C

Trajetória para 1,5 ⁰C

2050 2070

Fonte:
Source: IPCC
6º Relatório do IPCC, Grupos de Trabalho I e II
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf
SROCC - Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate,
IPCC, 2019
AON, 2021 Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight
Fonte: WMO, 2021, State of the Climate Services, Water
1913/14 – 1967/68 1968/69 -2018/19

Fonte: Portela et al., 2020

Fonte: Portela et al., 2021
Coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs

(AOGCMs) (e.g. HadCM3, GFDL CM2.X) combine

atmospheric and oceanic models. They thus have the
advantage of removing the need to specify fluxes across the
interface of the ocean surface. These models are the basis for
sophisticated model predictions of future climate, such as are
discussed by the IPCC.

AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate

models and internalise as many processes as possible. They
are the only tools that could provide detailed regional
predictions of future climate change. However, they are still
under development. The simpler models are generally
susceptible to simple analysis and their results are generally
easy to understand. AOGCMs, by contrast, are often nearly as
hard to analyse as the real climate system.
Precipitation Anomaly Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM)
A2 scenario for the period
2071-2100 relative to
1961-1990, SIAM I Project,
2002

Annual Summer (JJA) Autumn (SON)

Variação da precipitação media annual na Europa para
aumentos da temperature media global de 1,5º, 2º e 3º
Desertification Vulnerability, serious
Desertification Vunerability, moderate
Source
Transformação de climas húmidos em sub-húmidos, sub-
húmidos em semiáridos, semiáridos em áridos e áridos em
hiper-áridos devido às alterações climáticas

UNFCCC Report on Climate Change, 2019

Número de dias por ano com Índice meteorológico de perigo de
incêndio florestal (FWI) muito elevado ou extremo,
Fonte, Projeto PESETA IV, JRC
Houseboats float, amid extreme drought, on California's Lake
Oroville in October 2021. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg News)
Um amendoal abandonado em Newman, California, EUA, 2021
Foto de Terry Chea/AP
- Nos últimos 20 anos a precipitação em Portugal e
Espanha diminui cerca de 15%, prevendo-se que
diminua entre 10 a 25% até ao final do século.

- Nos últimos 20 anos a disponibilidade de água reduziu-

se cerca de 20%.

Fonte: Avaliação das disponibilidades hídricas atuais e futuras

e aplicação do índice de escassez WEI+, APA, Período de
consulta públia de 2021-12-11 a 2022-06-30
Comparação entre 1945/46-1980/81 e 1981/82-2015/16
Thank you for your attention
Comparando com outros países da UE, Portugal tem:

1 - Uma excelente qualidade de água para consumo

humano

2 - Uma percentagem muito elevada de tratamento

das águas residuais urbanas

3 - Uma das mais baixas percentagens de re-utilisação

das águas residuais tratadas
 Reutilizar as águas residuais urbanas
Wastewater Wastewater Wastewater Treated
Generated Treated and Used

km3/ano km3/ano km3/ano

Alemanha 6,172 5,123 (83,0%) 0,042 (0,82%)

Espanha 5,204 4,570 (87,8%) 0,487 (10,66%)

Itália 3,926 3,902 (99,4%) 0,233 (5,97%)

França 7,910 6,654 (84,1%) 0,411 (6,17%)

Portugal 0,577 0,561 (97,2%) 0,006 (1,07%)

Fonte: Global, regional, and country level need for data on wastewater generation,
treatment, and use, Agricultural Water Management 130(2013):1–13
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2013.08.007
Toshio Sato, Manzoor Qadir, Sadahiro Yamamoto et al., 2013