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v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 33
regressão com dados abrangendo o período de 1991 a 2012 usando PIB,
Crédito e Capital. A taxa de poupança ótima foi encontrada em s=42,94
(%PIB). Atualmente a taxa de poupança brasileira está bem abaixo da taxa
ótima, s=13,0 (%PIB), o que em grande parte explica o baixo crescimento
brasileiro. O Brasil deve elevar sua taxa de poupança no sentido de obter
um crescimento econômico sadio e sustentável.
Abstract: This academic work used Solow´s Golden Rule theory into
the Brazilian economy. A modified production function was introduced
applying capital and credit as arguments. Comparative country economic
figures were presented involving Brazil and selected Latin American
economic partners and also BRIC team. Macroeconomic variables such
as: Gross Domestic Product – GDP (constant prices) % change, Gross
National Savings – GNS (%GDP), Inflation % change were compared across
selected countries. Brazil has the lowest GNS (%GDP) in comparison to
Latin American countries. Also in comparison to Latin American team,
Brazil also presented one of the lowest economic growths losing only for
Mexico. Among the BRICs China presented by far the highest economic
growth with also the highest GNS (%GDP) and the lowest inflation rate.
Brazil and South Africa seems to have similar figures. The Solow´s model
was developed and using optimizing techniques the optimum savings rate
for Brazilian economy was found. Applying regression analysis covering
the time span of 1991 up to 2012 with GDP, Credit and Capital was found
the optimum saving rate (%GDP), s=42,94. Present Brazil´s saving rate is
very far behind the optimum, s=13%, what in great extend explains the
low Brazilian economic growth. Brazil should increase its saving rate in
order to have a healthy and sustainable economic growth.
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 35
This research applied the Solow´s Golden Rule using a modified
production function in order to find out the savings rate for the Brazilian
economy that maximizes consume. What savings rate that maximizes
consume in Brazil? What its impacts in economic growth?
The production function adopted for the Brazilian economy was
Cobb-Douglas type with capital and credit as arguments, both in per capita
figures. Both capital and credit presents concave functions and Inada
conditions. This proposed production function also presents decreasing
returns of scale.
2 Research background
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 37
in China using a life cycle model and panel data on Chinese provinces for
the 1995–2004 period from China’s household survey. They found that
China’s household saving rate has been high and rising and that the main
determinants of variations over time and over space therein are the lagged
saving rate, the income growth rate, (in many cases) the real interest rate,
and (in some cases) the inflation rate.
Loayza & Schmidt-Hebbel (2000), concluded that saving rates dis-
play considerable variation across countries and over time. In this paper,
authors investigate empirically the policy and nonpolicy factors behind
these saving disparities using a large, cross-country, time-series data set
and following an encompassing approach including a number of relevant
private saving determinants. They also concluded that the income growth
rate, the real interest rate and the lagged saving rate are relevant factors to
explain saving rates across countries.
d. Credit % of GDP.
The GDP, GNS and Inflation data coved the time span from 1980 to
2014 and it is presented in the graphs below. The Credit data shows annual
increase from 2008 up to 2013.
From graph 1 it is clear that the Brazilian GDP presented a very vol-
atile behavior in the last 35 years. Especially in the last 3 years there is
a tendency of decreasing figures. Gross Savings shows also a decreasing
behavior and in the last 3 years figures below 15% GDP. Very high infla-
tion was presented in the Brazilian economy for a long time. Since 1994
from the establishment of Plano Real, inflation became to decrease sharply
and continue in one digit figures. In order to face the American Crisis the
Brazilian government conducted a greater participation of credit operations
in GDP as a major countercyclical measure. From graph 4 it’s evident that
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 39
Graph 3: Inflation (average consumer prices) % Changes
China presented by far the highest economic growth with also the
highest GNS (% GDP) and the lowest inflation rate. India also presented a
remarkable economic growth with suitable GNS (% GDP). Russia showed
the lowest economic growth with by far the highest inflation rate. Brazil
and South Africa seems to have similar figures.
From section 2 Brazil appears to have control over inflation but presents
an unsustainable economic growth rate. Another relevant macroeconomic
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 41
variable is the GNS (% GDP) which in the Brazilian case is continuing
decreasing for below 15% level. Credit availability is continuing increasing
and approaching 60% Credit/GDP level. Credit policy has being successful
at the beginning of the rising policy in order to face harmful symptoms from
the American Crisis. The credit policy seems to be a short term successful
measure, not provoking increasing tendency for long term economic
growth. One of the major reasons for the low economic growth in Brazil
seems to be the GNS (% GDP). With appropriate GNS (% GDP) Brazil
tends to increase its GDP in a sustainable fashion.
Y= C + I (1)
I≡S (2)
F(k,Cr) (3)
y = kαCrβ 0<α<1, 0<β<1 (4)
y = kα (γy)β (6)
The golden rule for capital accumulation is the way to find out the
optimum amount of capital for social welfare in an economy. The long
term social welfare maximization is reached when the level of per capita
consume is maximum. Therefore, the golden rule for capital accumula-
tion consists in the savings rate finding. The savings rate determines the
investment rate and subsequently the consume rate.
The optimum amount of capital (k*) leads to a steady state in which
per capita consume is maximum. This situation can be expressed in equa-
tion 9 as follows:
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 43
Applying k* in equation 11 and maximizing consume with respect to
s (savings rate) we find the level of s that maximizes per capita consume.
After calculations we get:
s = α/1-β (12)
6 Empirical results
Research data was collected from IPEADATA covering the time span
of 1991 up to 2012 using per capita figures of GDP(y), Credit(Cr) and
Capital(k). Regression analysis result is presented in table 3.
Table 3: Regression analysis model result
Increasing credit level (γ) by 5,74% greater than steady state the fol-
lowing variables: product, consume and capital will also increase in close
measures. All results are presented in table 4.
Table 4: Simulation analysis (increasing credit)
Product 0,14%
Consume 0,1389%
Capital 0,1404%
Decreasing credit level (γ) by -10,23% smaller than steady state the
following variables: product, consume and capital will also decrease in
close measures. All results are presented in table 5.
Table 5: Simulation analysis (decreasing credit)
Product -0,27%
Consume -0,2716
Capital -0,2688
7 Final remarks
v. 9, n. 1, jan-jun. 2015 | 45
the Brazilian economy since 2008. Moreover, the result α + β < 1, also
confirmed decreasing returns of scale for the Brazilian economy.
Developing the Solow´s economic growth model the optimum savings
rate was found. According to Solow´s Golden Rule this rate maximizes
social welfare by maximizing consume. This figure was approximately
43% GDP and very high in comparison to Brazil´s present savings rate
of around 13% GDP. Brazilian economy should increase, in an urgent
fashion, its savings rate in order to improve economic growth.
One relevant factor for private savings is the real interest rate in Brazil.
Due to long periods of high inflation the Brazilian Central Bank is applying
high real interest rates, however taxation is still very high what diminishes
financial investment attractiveness from private sector of the economy.
Brazilian population is getting older and this feature may influence the
savings rate behavior. This particular characteristic was also mentioned
by Masson, Bayoumi & Samiei (1998).
Reviewing macroeconomic country data in tables 1 and 2, it’s also clear
that countries with high savings rate %GDP tend to have higher economic
growth rates. Paying attention to China´s figures with GNS=47,10%GDP
and with average economic growth rate of 10,52%p.a.; it’s evident the
relevance of savings rate. Even in the Latin American circle, Chile is a
very good example with GNS=23,5%GDP and with average economic
growth rate above 5%p.a..This research also confirms conclusions of
Schenk–Hoppé (2002), Zhigang & Zhangyong (2003), Levine & Zervos
(1998) and Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel & Servén (2000).
Brazil should adopt measures to encourage the saving mechanism such
as: reducing taxation from financial investments, apply positive real interest
rates, offer a saving education program to especially low age population,
etc. According to this academic research, there is an outstanding gap from
the present savings rate to its optimum. Also making comparisons with
other countries the lack of appropriate savings rate seems to be a major
factor for low economic growth in Brazil.
References
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