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Na parte 1, há uma analise entre as bases de analise entre ambos. Pode-se ver que os
ciclos domésticos:
Why are the price-based and the quantity-based measures of the GFCy so similar?
Presumably, similar forces are at work. The finding suggests that large movements in
international capital flows coincide with large movements in risky asset prices, and vice
versa. Moreover, by construction, gross capital flows should be especially sensitive to
shifts in capital reallocations across countries because a given transaction will tend to
show up in both home and host countries. For example, if US residents invest in
Thailand, this will appear as an increase in gross inflows to Thailand and a
corresponding increase in gross outflows from the United States.
Outra constatação nesse sentido é a questão que os fluxos de capital constantes, como
detectados nas estimativas cross country, especialmente em economias emergentes,
cujas sensibilidades a estes ciclos é significativamente alta. Além das dis paridades de
duração entre ambos os ciclos, onde dominam ciclos de médio prazo na esfera
doméstica e de curto prazo na esfera global.
Sobre a ligação de ambos os ciclos, os autores escrevem: Following strong expansions, the
DFC, the GFCy and capital flows all turn downwards before crises. Interestingly, for AEs, there is
not much difference between the first and second principal components. This suggests that,
during boom-busts in AEs, capital flows expand and contract for all countries – spillovers are
especially strong. The main difference between AEs and EMEs is that the initial appreciation
and the subsequent sharp depreciation of the domestic currency are much more pronounced
for EMEs. This is consistent with more formal empirical evidence, which indicates that the
combination of strong credit growth and exchange rate appreciation is a useful leading
indicator of banking stress in EMEs, but not in AEs (Borio and Lowe (2002), Gourinchas and
Obstfeld (2012)).
-A necessidade de politicas prudenciais para o médio prazo, que podem tanto enfrentar as
possibilidades de ciclo global como trazer estabilização local.