Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
1E201
(2011-12)
J.M. Keynes
1. A MACROECONOMIA NO
CURTO PRAZO
3
1.1. MODELO KEYNESIANO SIMPLES
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PROGRAMA DA DISCIPLINA
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MODELO KEYNESIANO SIMPLES
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DESPESA EFECTIVA E PLANEADA
Y = E ⇔ Y = C + I +G + X −Q
I = I p + Iu
• Assumindo que só o investimento pode diferir do planeado, a
despesa desejada (ex-ante) fica dada por:
DD = C + I p + G + X − Q
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DESPESA EFECTIVA E PLANEADA
E = DD ⇔ I = I p
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FUNÇÃO CONSUMO KEYNESIANA
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Rendimento Disponível e Consumo das Famílias
(Portugal, 1978-2010, milhões de euros, a preços de 2006)
180 000
PIB real
160 000
Rend. Disp. dos Particulares
140 000
Consumo Privado
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Fonte: BPStat - Estatísticas online do Banco de Portugal (base 2006, deflator do PIB).
10
Rendimento Disponível e Consumo das Famílias
(Portugal, 1978-2010, taxas de crescimento, a preços de 2006)
10%
Rend. Disp. dos Particulares
8%
Consumo Privado
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Fonte: BPStat - Estatísticas online do Banco de Portugal (base 2006, deflator do PIB).
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FUNÇÃO CONSUMO KEYNESIANA
C = C + c ⋅ Yd C
declive = c
Yd
T = t ⋅Y ; R = R ; Yd = Y − t ⋅ Y + R = (1 − t ) ⋅ Y + R .
C = C + c ⋅ (1 − t ) ⋅ Y + c ⋅ R C
declive = c·(1-t)
C +c⋅R
Y
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DESPESA PLANEADA
Ip = I ; G=G ; X = X .
Q = Q + q ⋅Y
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DESPESA PLANEADA
DD = C + c ⋅ Yd + I p + G + X − Q − q ⋅ Y ⇔
⇔ DD = C + c ⋅ (1 − t ) ⋅ Y + c ⋅ R + I p + G + X − Q − q ⋅ Y ⇔
⇔ DD = [c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q ]⋅ Y + Ap .
DD
DD
declive = c·(1-t)-q
Ap
Y 15
EQUILÍBRIO VIA “Y = E”
Y eq = [c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q ]⋅ Y eq + Ap
DD E =Y
Y eq
= [c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q ]⋅ Y + Ap ⇔
eq
DD
⇔ Y eq ⋅ [1 − c ⋅ (1 − t ) + q ] = Ap ⇔ declive = c·(1-t)-q
1 Ap
⇔Y eq
= ⋅ Ap
1 − c ⋅ (1 − t ) + q
Y eq Y
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POUPANÇA PRIVADA
S priv = Yd − C = Yd − C − c ⋅ Yd = (1 − c) ⋅ Yd − C
S priv = (1 − c) ⋅ (Y − T + R ) − C ⇔
Spriv
( )
⇔ S priv = (1 − c) ⋅ Y − t ⋅ Y + R − C ⇔
declive = (1-c)·(1-t)
⇔ S priv = (1 − c) ⋅ (1 − t ) ⋅ Y − C + (1 − c) ⋅ R
− C + (1 − c) ⋅ R Y
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POUPANÇA PÚBLICA E EXTERNA
Y
−G − R
S ext = Q − X + q ⋅ Y Sext
declive = q
Y
Q− X
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EQUILÍBRIO VIA “I = S”
Y = DD ⇔
⇔ Y = C + c ⋅ Yd + I p + G + X − Q − q ⋅ Y ⇔
⇔ Y − t ⋅ Y + R = C + c ⋅ Yd + I p + G + X − Q − q ⋅ Y − t ⋅ Y + R ⇔
( ) (
⇔ Yd = C + c ⋅ Yd + I p + G − t ⋅ Y + R + X − Q − q ⋅ Y ⇔ )
( ) ( )
⇔ Yd − C − c ⋅ Yd − G − t ⋅ Y + R − X − Q − q ⋅ Y = I p ⇔
[
⇔ (1 − c) ⋅ Yd − C ]+ (t ⋅ Y − G − R ) + (Q − X + q ⋅ Y ) = I p ⇔
⇔ S priv + S g + S ext = I p .
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EQUILÍBRIO É ESTÁVEL
E = Y = OFERTA
DD
DD = PROCURA
Y− Y eq Y+ Y
J.M. Keynes
EFEITO MULTIPLICADOR
1
Y eq = ⋅ Ap = α ⋅ Ap
1 − c ⋅ (1 − t ) + q
1
∆Y eq
= ⋅ ∆Ap = α ⋅ ∆Ap Ep
1 − c ⋅ (1 − t ) + q
∆Ap
∆Y eq Y
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EFEITO MULTIPLICADOR
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EFEITO MULTIPLICADOR
α = c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q + [c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q ]2 + [c ⋅ (1 − t ) − q ]3 + ... =
1
1 − c ⋅ (1 − t ) + q
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Public spending multipliers
∆G ⇒ ∆Ap = ∆G ⇒ ∆Y eq = α ⋅ ∆Ap = α ⋅ ∆G
∆S g = ∆T − ∆ R − ∆G = t ⋅ ∆Y eq − ∆G = t ⋅ α ⋅ ∆G − ∆G = −(1 − t ⋅ α ) ⋅ ∆G
∆B.Corrente = ∆X − ∆Q = ∆ X − ∆Q − q ⋅ ∆Y eq = −q ⋅ α ⋅ ∆G
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POLÍTICA ORÇAMENTAL
∆ R ⇒ ∆Ap = c ⋅ ∆ R ⇒ ∆Y eq = α ⋅ ∆Ap = c ⋅ α ⋅ ∆ R
∆S g = ∆T − ∆ R − ∆G = t ⋅ ∆Y eq − ∆ R = t ⋅ c ⋅ α ⋅ ∆ R − ∆ R = −(1 − t ⋅ c ⋅ α ) ⋅ ∆ R
∆B.Corrente = ∆ X − ∆Q − q ⋅ ∆Y eq = −q ⋅ c ⋅ α ⋅ ∆ R sempre < 0
∆S g 1 − t ⋅α
∆G ⇒ =−
∆Y eq
α
∆S g 1 − t ⋅ c ⋅α 1 c − t ⋅α
∆R ⇒ =− =−
∆Y eq c ⋅α α
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POLÍTICA ORÇAMENTAL
DD DD
∆α
∆Ap
∆Y eq Y ∆Y eq Y
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POLÍTICA ORÇAMENTAL
⇔ ∆Y eq =
[1 − c ⋅ (1 − t0 ) + q] − [1 − c ⋅ (1 − t1 ) + q ] ⋅ A ⇔
[1 − c ⋅ (1 − t1 ) + q ]⋅ [1 − c ⋅ (1 − t0 ) + q ] p
− c ⋅ ∆t
⇔ ∆Y eq = ⋅ Ap ⇔
[1 − c ⋅ (1 − t1 ) + q]⋅ [1 − c ⋅ (1 − t0 ) + q ]
⇔ ∆Y eq = −c ⋅ ∆t ⋅ α (t1 ) ⋅ α (t0 ) ⋅ Ap = −c ⋅ ∆t ⋅ α (t1 ) ⋅ Y eq (t0 )
dS g d
dt
=
dt
( )
t ⋅ Y (t ) = Y (t ) + t ⋅
eq eq dY eq (t )
dt
= Y eq (t ) − t ⋅ c ⋅ α ⋅ Y eq = (1 − t ⋅ c ⋅ α ) ⋅ Y eq
dB.Corrente d
dt
=
dt
(
X − Q − q ⋅ Y (t ) = −q ⋅
eq
) dY eq (t )
dt
= q ⋅ c ⋅ α ⋅ Y eq sempre > 0
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POLÍTICA ORÇAMENTAL