Mapa de Vulnerabilidade Da Populacao Do RJ

12-16 May 2014
MAPA DE VULNERABILIDADE DA POPULAÇÃO DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO

AOS IMPACTOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS
Martha Barata (1) *; Ulisses Confalonieri (1); Diana Marinho (1); Giovannini Luigi (2); Cristina
Costa Neto (1); Frederico Oliveira (1); Carlos Pereira (1); Felipe Marincola (1)
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2)
contact: carlos.rpereira@hotmail.com
Abstract
Os cenários climáticos globais e regionais apontam para o risco da mudança do clima no Brasil. A
Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas (PNMC), prevê que medidas adequadas de adaptação
sejam priorizadas, de modo a contribuir para a redução da vulnerabilidade dos sistemas e dos efeitos
adversos da mudança do clima. Neste contexto, o presente resumo apresenta a metodologia
desenvolvida para identificar a vulnerabilidade da população do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (ERJ) aos
projetados efeitos das mudanças climáticas, com o objetivo de subsidiar a Secretaria de Estado do
Meio Ambiente do Rio de Janeiro (SEA-RJ) na formulação de políticas públicas que contribuam
para aumentar a resiliência da população. Foram coletadas informações sociais, ambientais e de
saúde, sensíveis a variações climáticas, da população dos municípios do ERJ, alcançando índices
setoriais relacionados a essas três dimensões avaliadas. Em seguida, essas informações setoriais
foram convertidas em escores padronizados, o que possibilitou a agregação em um único índice
sintético, o Índice de Vulnerabilidade Geral (IVG). As informações sobre anomalias de precipitação
e temperatura provenientes dos cenários climáticos projetados para o período 2010-2040 foram
utilizadas para a elaboração do Índice de Cenários Climáticos que, por sua vez, foi agregado ao IVG,
alcançando-se o Índice de Vulnerabilidade Municipal à mudança do clima (IVM). Mapas temáticos
sobre o IVM e seus componentes foram elaborados para ilustração dos resultados, que mostraram
que a população dos municípios do Rio de Janeiro e Magé apresentam maior vulnerabilidade em
relação aos dos demais municípios do ERJ. Para o pior cenário climático aplicado (A1FI), o IVM
apontou um conjunto de municípios da Macrorregião Metropolitana e de seu entorno como o mais
suscetível de sofrer impactos negativos do clima no futuro. A informação agregadas permitiu a
identificação deste hotspot metropolitano, mas os indicadores setoriais também podem ser utilizados
para a orientação de políticas específicas. O índice composto obtido, capaz de resumir aspectos
multidimensionais em um índice adimensional, atua como redutor da complexidade da realidade em
análise, facilitando sua interpretação e síntese. De fato, o Mapa de Vulnerabilidade da População dos
Municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro frente às Mudanças Climáticas (MVPM/RJ) possibilita uma
visão abrangente da vulnerabilidade da população do ERJ considerando os riscos climáticos, ao
apontar os municípios e setores que possivelmente serão os mais afetados. Nesse sentido, torna-se
um instrumento de apoio à decisão, ao contribuir para diretrizes da PNMC sejam incorporadas as
políticas estadual, municipal e setorial de adaptação.
Session: 1 - Reference Number: 194

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: A METEOROLOGICAL DATA APPROACH
Moses Herbert Lubinga (1) *

University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa (1)
contact: moseslubinga@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract
Climate scientists divulge that the Earth’s climate will change at a unique rate over the 21st century,
thus envisioning global warming. It is postulated that countries reliant on agriculture are
predominantly vulnerable to this phenomenon. Hastening climatic changes are noted to influence
urbanisation in agriculture dependant economies, natural adversities like floods, droughts, mass
movements, and sea level rise among others. Despite the evident existence of negative impacts of
climate change on various sectors within an economy, international trade inclusive, more empirical
evidence is still desirable in agrarian based economies. Existing literature about the negative effects
of climate change on trade is grounded on Kyoto Protocol policies. These policies are founded on
Green House Gas (GHG) emissions yet the climate change phenomenon is more complex due to the
interdependency of climatic and weather-related natural factors.These policies are apt for industrious
economies where it is easier to quantify GHG emissions. Application of similar policies to
developing economies reliant on Agriculture is likely to cause misleading policy interventions.
Researchers argue that most exports from developing economies are skewed towards agriculture and
it is difficult to measure GHG emissions from the agriculture sector. This complicates the actual
quantification of the effects of climate changes on agricultural trade. In order to cope with
industrialisation, developing countries are being compelled to substitute the old energy models. This
has been identified as one of the major obstacles in curbing climate change effects given that this
transition is unprecedented and requires heavy initial investment costs. These policy measures do not
directly target a particular product, but rather focus on the method by which GHGs may implicitly
relate to production. Kyoto Protocol policies may have implications for trade, especially on
agricultural commodities. In agricultural economies, evaluation of climate change impacts should be
based on weather related factors since these are direct inputs into agriculture. Therefore, this paper
evaluates the influence of climate change on Uganda’s trade flows with seven countries, while using
precipitation and temperature anomalies as proxies for climate change.The Feasible Generalised
Least Squares estimator was used to run a gravity model. Results reveal that climate change exhibits
negative effects on trade flows, particularly through its influence on the agricultural sector and
through temperature fluctuations in the export markets. Conclusively, climate change deters trade
flows, hence economic growth. Policy wise, investment in advanced agricultural technologies
tolerant to extreme conditions is desirable.

12-16 May 2014
STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR INFRASTRUCTURE ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL

CHANGE IN CHILE
Jorge Gironás (1,2); Sebastián Vicuña (2) *; Francisco Meza (2,5); Guillermo Donoso (4); Luis
Cifuentes (6,3)
Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (1)
Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada de Desastres Naturales (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile (3)
Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (4)
Departamento de Ecosistemas y Medio Ambiente, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (5)
Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial y de Sistemas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (6)
contact: jgironas@ing.puc.cl
Abstract
Infrastructure plays a vital role for a wide range of productive sectors and therefore is an enabler for
economic development and social welfare. Infrastructure can improve health and quality of life of
people, provide connectivity between different areas and increase access to water resources for
human consumption and economic activities such as agriculture, forestry or energy. Many of the
functions performed by infrastructure are closely linked to the climatic conditions of a particular area
and hydro-meteorological events. The role of this infrastructure in a future with changing climate is
expected to be affected through at least two essential aspects. On one hand infrastructure is exposed
to a climate conditions that may change in the future, increasing its vulnerability to certain weather
events. To some extent all infrastructure works can be considered to fall into this category. On the
other hand, changes in climate can impact the performance of infrastructure works. Works that fall
into this category include all those elements used to protect the population from extreme events (e.g.
storm drainage systems, and coastal and fluvial infrastructure), as well as infrastructure works
associated with storage, distribution and treatment of water resources (e.g. dams, irrigation systems,
potable and wastewater distribution systems). Thus, the processes of infrastructure works investment,
including planning, design, construction and operation, must take into account the projected impacts
of a changing climate on the life cycle of these works, considering the uncertainty of the projected
weather parameters, and searching for methods to develop and assess adaptation options. This work
presents the results of a project developed for the Chilean Ministry of Public Works (MOP), which
proposes a method for incorporating climate change projections in the infrastructure planning and
design stages. In particular, Three aspects were developed: • First, we promoted the need to initiate
an inter-ministerial discussion on mainstreaming climate change impacts in infrastructure planning.•
Secondly, we identified the need to improve systems for monitoring threats and vulnerabilities.•
Finally, we proposed the development of specific methods to incorporate changing climate impacts
on infrastructure planning, and applied them to water reservoirs, ports and bridges.Results and
experience learned from this study are expected to be of interest for decision makers, governmental
institutions and practitioners who are promoting and developing similar studies in their states or
countries.

12-16 May 2014
NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS: SHARING AND LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE
Roger B Street (1) *

UKCIP, ECI, Oxford University, Oxford, UK (1)
contact: roger.street@ukcip.org.uk
Abstract
National assessments, whether impacts, risks, or adaptation focused, have been undertaken by a
number of countries, with some having completed a number of such assessments. In addition to
differences in focus, there are differences in the scope, drivers, audiences and expected outcomes.
Despite or as a result of these differences, there has been considerable interest in sharing
experiences, lessons learnt and challenges as a basis for informing future assessments. In response to
these requests, two dialogues have been held - the first in Canada in 2000 and the second in the UK
in 2013. In both cases, the dialogues were designed to provide participants (those responsible for
delivering national assessments) with opportunities to share: experiences, lessons learnt and
challenges associated with developing and delivering a national claimate change assessment;
perspectives on the purposes, audiences for, and use of, the assessment; and how these informed the
process and delivery of the assessment. For the most recent dialogue, participants were from those
countries that had undertaken (or were undertaking) multiple assessments. As such, this allowed for
the dialogue to include how the respective national assessments had been informed by previous
assessments.This presentation will share the results of these two dialogues and provide an opportunty
to engage participants in continuing and broadening the dialogue. The results show that we are
learning from experience with innovations being introduced, but that challenges still exist. The
dialogues showed that there are differences between statutory-driven assessments and between these
and non-statutory assessments that have implications for the nature, scope and delivery of the
assessment. It was also revealed that the process of undertakng the assessment, including the
engagement of the different communities, can be as or more important than the results, and as such
has implications for the purpose, nature and evaluation of the benefits of the assessment. Also
recognised was the importance of clearly defining the audiences and expected uses, but also of
following up to evaluate the uses and impacts of the assessment and its products (success of the
assessment). Challenges particularly noted were attribution, lack of documentation, the temporal
nature of impacts and realising benefits, metrics and the need to engage users in the evaluation.Both
dialogues expressed an interest to continue these dialogues, to engage others and to retain their
informal nature.

12-16 May 2014
CHILEAN COASTAL URBAN VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A TOP-

DOWN EVALUATION.
Dahyann Araya (1) *; Marc Metzger (1); Meriwether Wilson (1); Neil Stuart (1)
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (1)
The Pontificial Catholic University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile (2)
contact: dayhann@gmail.com
Abstract
It is possible to assert that the world is becoming more urbanized. World urban areas have increased
their social and economic relevance because they have transformed in the demographic and
economic cores of the countries (UN, 2010). Currently, more than a half of the world's population
lives in urban areas. This situation is an undeniable trend which is expected to continue increasing
the urbanization, with even greater density and pressure on the environment (Wilbanks et al., 2007).
In this respect, Latin America is not an exception. Around 80% of the population living in poor and
developing countries - such as Latin American countries- are concentrated in urban areas (UN,
2011). The urban areas of Chile, a developing country within Latin America, concentrate more than
87% of the country's total population, where nearly 25% of the Chilean urban population lives in few
large cities on the coast of the country. Regarding this, these cities contain most of the economic
activities of the country, as well as most of the new activities and jobs created in recent decades
(INE, 2012a). Furthermore, they are also likely to house most of the population growth in the next 10
years (INE, 1990).Considering the high economic activity and demographic concentration in Chilean
urban areas, as well as the proximity of urban settlements to coastal areas of the country, and global
climate vulnerability trends (IPCC 2007a, 2012; ECLAC 2012a), it seems probable that the
population and economic activities developed in Chilean coastal urban areas will be at risk from
progressive change in climate, extreme weather or climate events, and rising ocean level.
Nevertheless, Chile has not developed an urban vulnerability assessment (UVA) to climate change,
situation that prevents the development of efficient adaptation actions. In this context, this poster will
provide a top-down UVA to climate change of the main urban coastal districts of Chile. To
accomplish that, nine coastal urban areas of the country are studied, searching to know: which urban
areas are more vulnerable to climate change? and what are the challenges and gaps in the study of
climate change vulnerability in Chile?. To explore these questions, different climatic and
socioeconomic projections are used GIS. Preliminary results show that: the urban areas more
vulnerable to climate change are concentrated in the extreme territories of the country, due to future
increase in population, as well as in river cities because of their vulnerability to floods.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN THE RIVER

BASINS OF MEXICO
Helena Cotler (1) *; Daniel I. González (1); Verónica Bunge (1)

Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, D.F. Mexico, Mexico (1)
contact: helena.cotler@inecc.gob.mx
Abstract
The river basin as a spatial planning unit allows addressing causes and impacts of climate change as
an integrated approach, including coordination and coherence between mitigation and adaptation
policy domains. We identified, at a national level, the most vulnerable basins to environmental
degradation as a result of a combination of human pressure on natural capital and temperature
increase in the context of climate change. The evaluation of the environmental dynamic alteration
(EDA) of the basins was related to the projected anomalies of annual mean temperature in each
hydrological functional zone of the basins. EDA is an indicator that evaluates the overall territorial
impact of each basin. It integrates variables as soil degradation, fragmentation of rivers and riparian
zones, water resource pressure, fuzzy potential pollution and biodiversity loss at a basin level. On the
other hand, in order to assess the impact of temperature increase in the functional dynamics of the
territory, projections of change were aggregated taking into account the hydrological functional
zones of the basins of Mexico. Maximum anomalies for the annual average temperature of 3 General
Circulation Models were considered: MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, with a spatial
resolution of 33" x 33" (approx. 926 m2). The representative concentration pathway 8.5 w/m2
projected on the far horizon (2075-2099 period) was considered. An average function for the values
on anomalies was applied for the aggregated process. At a national level, 19 of the 393 basins have
very high environmental degradation vulnerability with high to extreme degree of environmental
dynamic alteration and projected maximum positive anomalies between 6.6 and 7.2 °C in the upper
zone of the basin. On the other hand, 59 basins present high vulnerability, 209 and 106 show medium
and low vulnerability, respectively. Three of the basins with very high environmental degradation
vulnerability encompass over 12% of the total population of the country. In this sense, focusing and
implementing adaptation measures in order to promote and ensure environmental stability of the
upper parts of these basins is essential due to the environmental services provided by these zones,
upon which the population of the lower and middle watershed depends.

12-16 May 2014
INTER-MODEL VARIABILITIES IN HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES PROJECTIONS IN

JI-PARANA.
Daniel Andres Rodriguez (1) *; Lucas Garofolo (1); Javier Tomasella (2); José Lázaro Siqueira
Júnior (1)
Centre for Earth System Science – Brazilian Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
Centro Nacional de Monitoramento de Alertas de Desastres Naturais, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil (2)
contact: daniel.andres@inpe.br
Abstract
The decision-making process related to adaptation policies is affected by uncertainties ot the chain of
models used to study the impacts of global environmental changes. The uncertainties in Climate
Change projections can be attributed to several causes, such as irreducible uncertainties due to
knowledge’s limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process.
Despite the lack of an unique optimal result, these uncertainties open the possibility to develop
exploratory analyses on system’s vulnerability to different sceneries. Through these kinds of
analyses, it is possible to identify critical issues, which demands further research.In this study we
used several future’s climate change projections from General Circulation Models as an input of the
Hydrological Distributed Model, MHD-INPE, applied to the Ji-Parana Basin. Hydrological Model
integrations were performed for present time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100).
Extreme values analyses were performed for each simulated time series, applying a non-stacionary
approach, and the results were compared with extremes events measured for present time. Projected
river’s levels for differents retourn periods were obtained from the rating curve at the gauge station
and used in a SIG data base to identify potential flooded areas in the city. We also used socio-
economic data from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the Operator of the National
Electric System, the Brazilian National Water Agency, combined with scientific and newspapers
information to characterize impacts associated to extremes hydrological events in the basin during
the present time and to evaluate potential impacts in the future in the face of different hydrological
projections. Atlthough results show a large inter-model variability, the methodology is useful to
evalute potential local impacts. However, the availability of satellite products with better resolution
and frequency would improve the decision-making processes.

12-16 May 2014
FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF

AGRICULTURAL LIVELIHOODS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
Claudia Bouroncle (1) *; Pablo Imbach (1); Peter Laderach (2); Beatriz Rodriguez (2)
Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Centre (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica (1)
International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia (2)
contact: cbouron@catie.ac.cr
Abstract
Central America is the tropical region where the biggest changes in climate are expected. The impact
of climate change on agricultural livelihoods and food security will depend not only on capacity to
produce different crops but also the sensitivity and adaptability of social-agroecological systems.
There is no regional study that integrates these elements spatially, so we performed a vulnerability
analysis of agricultural livelihoods of municipalities of the Central American countries in order to
define priority areas and strategies for the adaptation of the agricultural sector in each.We assumed
as agricultural livelihoods the current combinations of priority crops, and exposure as the expected
variation in the distribution of suitable areas for these crops in 2030 under high emissions scenarios.
Exposure was calculated using ecological niche models for commercial crops and five relevant to
food security. We used the economically active agricultural population as an indicator of sensitivity,
assuming that the greater the dependence of the population on agriculture for employment, the
greater the potential of climate change to impact their livelihoods. We built an index of adaptive
capacity using criteria and indicators weighted by scientists and decision makers, using these
parameters to explore potential bottlenecks in the adaptation process through multivariate
analysis.The results show that temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns expected
by 2030 will cause changes in the distribution of areas that support agricultural exports and rural
food security. Half of the municipalities lost productive capacity because they combine high
exposure and sensitive crops. Among those who gain productive capacity are those with a high
proportion of less sensitive crops (such as sorghum and cassava) and those at higher elevations,
where a possible increase of agricultural potential nevertheless conflicts with other land uses. Rural
populations of the region show a high dependence on agriculture as a source of work, mainly in the
municipalities farthest from urban centers. Decisive factors in defining groups of municipalities with
different adaptive capacity within each country were identified. These were the diversification of
production, satisfaction of basic needs and access to resources for innovation. Vulnerability to
climate change in agriculture varies between different municipalities in each country. Many will lose
suitable areas for crops that are the basis of their economies, but some of these have socio-economic
conditions that allow them to address those effects more successfully.This research was conducted
with the support of CCAFS and REGATTA-UNEP.

12-16 May 2014
A CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ANALYSIS

METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK: LESSONS FROM LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN REGION
Andrea Sabelli (1) *

United Nations Environmental Programme, Panama City, Panama (1)
contact: andrea.sabelli@unep-rolac.com
Abstract
Climate change is affecting communities, ecosystems and economic sectors across the globe and the
need for integrating adaptation into policy and project planning has become critical. In recent years,
growing attention has been given to the importance of conducting vulnerability, impact and
adaptation (VIA) analyses as part of climate change adaptation planning or to gain funding for in-
country adaptation action. A VIA analysis provides decision-makers and project developers with
information on the location and causes of vulnerability based on local knowledge and scientific data,
so that effective, targeted and site-specific adaptation responses can be designed. A growing
challenge for adaptation practitioners is choosing a method to carry out a VIA analysis from a wide
range of existing approaches. This may cause confusion as to which one is most effective for
generating rigorous and policy-relevant results. These approaches differ in identifying what causes
and constitutes vulnerability: some are more focused on biophysical factors while others on socio-
economic aspects. To provide guidance on conducting VIA analyses, we present a methodological
framework that has been developed through the implementation of three VIA analyses in the Gran
Chaco, Andes, and Mesoamerica sub-regions, as part of the Regional Gateway for Technology
Transfer and Action on Climate Change (REGATTA) initiative. REGATTA aims at providing
technical assistance to countries as well as enabling South-South knowledge-sharing to address
climate change, and is being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme in the
Latin America and the Caribbean region. The framework identifies the key components that a VIA
analysis should consider: defining the scope; conducting the analysis of exposure, sensitivity, and
adaptive capacity of the target area or sector; identifying options; and communicating and integrating
the results into policy making and project development. One distinguishing factor in our proposed
framework is the inclusion of ecosystem services in the analysis, due to the growing interest in
implementing Ecosystem-based Adaptation measures as part of an overall adaptation strategy. The
methodological framework has proven useful as a flexible tool to guide the design of the VIA
analyses and prioritization of adaptation options. As such, it is anticipated that the framework can be
adopted by other practitioners and assist them in conducting a rigorous VIA analysis that can be
adapted to the local context and provide both the scientific and participatory backing for the selection
of a broad range of adaptation options.

12-16 May 2014
PRESENT AND FUTURE WATER RESOURCES SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE

CENTRAL ANDES: A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW WITH FOCUS ON THE
CORDILLERA BLANCA, PERU
Fabian Drenkhan (1,5) *; Christian Huggel (1); Mark Carey (2); Adam French (3); Luzmila Dávila
(4)
University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (1)
University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA (2)
University of California, Berkeley, California, USA (3)
Unit of Glaciology and Water Resources, ANA, Huaraz, Ancash, Peru (4)
Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, Lima, Peru (5)
contact: fabian.drenkhan@geo.uzh.ch
Abstract
As virtual water towers, glaciers have been a crucial source for Andean societies and livelihoods.
Peru’s mainly remote living population in the Central Andes has to cope with a strong seasonal
variation of precipitations and river runoff interannually superimposed by El Niño impacts.
Consequently, direct glacier and lake water runoff constitute a vital continuous water supply and
represent a regulating buffer mitigating human vulnerability to climatic-hydrological variability. This
natural system is likely to deteriorate, triggered by accelerated glacier retreat and climatic changes.
The critical tipping point ‘peak water’ from where on prior enhanced river runoff will decrease and
level out towards a new still unknown minimum, is only partially investigated. Evidences in the
Santa River, Cordillera Blanca, Ancash, corroborate that it has already been crossed in several
glacierized subcatchments which contradicts the general consensus of a subsequent discharge decline
within a few decades. This nourishes even more concerns about a sustainable water supply while
Ancash’s population, irrigation-intense agriculture and hydropower demand increase.Here we
present a comprehensive review of the actual situation and perspectives for water resources
management in the Peruvian Andes.Agriculture accounts for 80% of the total water consume in Peru.
ChaViMoChic, an emblematic project situated on the dry Pacific coast (Santa effluent), is host to
currently 74,000 ha export crops including 60,000 jobs. Recent expansion efforts stand in stark
contrast to the declining river runoff. Hydropower, with 53% (5.3%) of whole power capacity
nationwide (Santa catchment) the energy pillar of Peru’s economy, might also be heavily affected by
diminishing water resources. Nevertheless, Peru’s energy demand is increasing by 7.5% y-1 and
mostly offset by fossil energy sources. Agriculture and hydropower will increasingly have to
compete triggered by a low level of human water security.Our conclusions suggest to focus on an
integrative risk-oriented supply-demand water balance model scheme in order to capture the
complexity of recent and future water distribution at catchment scale. The integration of both
physical and social key variables considering long-term changes in climate-glacier interactions as
well as economic and demographic trends, will play a determinant role for the performance quality
of that model and future adaptation strategies.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE, HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY: MULTISCALE ANALYSIS IN

NORTHERN COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL
Allan Yu Iwama (2) *; Wilson Cabral Sousa Júnior (1); Vitor Baccarin Zanetti (1); Rafael Sakai
(3,1); José Carlos de Moura Xavier (1); Debora Freitas (1); Eliane Simões (1,2); Mateus Batistella
(2,4); Lúcia da Costa Ferreira (2)
ITA, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil (1)
NEPAM/UNICAMP, Campinas, SP, Brazil (2)
USP, São Paulo, SP, Brazil (3)
EMBRAPA Monitoramento por Satélite, Campinas, SP, Brazil (4)
contact: allan.iwama@gmail.com
Abstract
Several researches have showed the importance of coastal zones for anthropogenic uses such as
industrial development and urban expansion. As in many parts of the world, the coast of Brazil is
home for the majority of its population. However, as natural frontline systems, coastal areas are
directly exposed to multiple, and in many occasion conflicting, uses, natural hazards with different
risks and vulnerabilities. The study area, the coast of São Paulo state is no exception. Growing
investments in the Pre-Salt deep oil and gas exploration offshore are in constant conflict with the
need to protect coastal and marine systems. On land, for instance, the ‘Serra do Mar' region presents
conflicts between different uses and occupation with significant implications for the socio-
environmental hazards and vulnerability. In this context, population growth associated with an
increase in consumption and waste-sewage disposal, and inefficiency of sanitation infrastructure
represents a large pressure for the coastal system and exposes the population to different social and
environmental hazards. This study focus into two different approaches to assess hazards and
vulnerabilities: (1) the geospatial indicators and (2) modelling of debris flow and flooding events.
The integration of both methods through a multiscale analysis: (i) in a regional scale, geospatial
indicators show the priority watersheds for risk reduction in the different hazards - landslides,
flooding and rising sea level, (ii) locally, the analysis based on a 1967s extreme event in
Caraguatatuba - with rainfall variation of 115-420mm and max. 841mm - show the consistent
analysis of historical data of tidal levels and the rainfall effects of flooding and debris flow in the
districts of ‘Santo Antônio' river basin. The results also indicate that multiscale analysis does not
necessarily require the same approach for a regional-local analysis, once the social dynamics and
environmental interactions are complex and require different analysis processes according to the
scale of the phenomenon. Moreover, whenever possible, it is necessary to use mixed methods
approach to analyze the vulnerability of a particular place (regional-local scale). These findings can
benefit research on large regional changes subject to extreme events under the influence of
megraprojects on areas, and population exposed to different hazards and vulnerabilities. Results of
land use and cover change analysis can also support the review of coastal management plans, urban
planning and disaster response strategies.

12-16 May 2014
THE IMPACT'CLIMAT VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TOOL FOR LOCAL

AUTHORITIES IN THE FRENCH OVERSEAS TERRITORIES
Céline Phillips (1) *

ADEME, Sophia-Antipolis, France (1)
contact: celine.phillips@ademe.fr
Abstract
To help French local authorities take the first step towards climate change adaptation, ADEME, the
French Agency for the Environment and Energy Management, has developed the « Impact'Climat »
vulnerability analysis tool. The tool promotes a pragmatic approach using available knowledge on
climate change in France and its expected impacts.In 2013 the « Impact'Climat » tool evolved to
include resources and data relevant for the French overseas territories in Latin America and the
Caribbean: Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana. A demonstration version of this new version
of « Impact'Climat » will be presented and the process of adaptation in the French overseas
territories discussed.

12-16 May 2014
RADAR: RAPID VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN RURAL CONTEXTS
Diego Lindoso (1,2) *; Saulo Rodrigues-Filho (1,2)

Center for Sustainable Development - University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil (1)
Regional Development and Climate Change Network (Rede CLIMA), Brasilia, Brazil (2)
contact: diegoplindoso@gmail.com
Abstract
Adaptation to climate change is a community-based process, undertaken to reduce vulnerabilities in a
specific temporal and spatial scales. Assessment tools are essential to support stakeholders in
adaptive process. The present work presents RADAR (Rapid Diagnosis of Adaptation in Rural
communities): an assessment system that provides a rapid diagnosis of vulnerability within
smallholder farming systems and allows identification of entry points for
adaptation.MethodologyThe tool was developed based on both specialist approach and participatory
approach. 500 surveys were undertaken in rural areas of Brazilian Semi-arid region (Bahia and Ceará
states) between 2011 and 2013. Additionally, 50 interviews with key institutional stakeholders
provided information. The data supported the identification of key sensibility and adaptive capacity
indicators, as well to develop an assessment range to classify each indicator.ResultsRadar has two
components: a qualitative one (graphic display) and a quantitative one (indicators and index).
Together, both allow the assessment tool’s users to visualize vulnerability and compare different
vulnerability contexts by using indices and indicators. Radar also proposes a new methodology of
indicator aggregation, based on a scale hierarchical integration, different from conventional systems,
that usually integrate indicators based on vulnerability dimensions. Radar is designed to support
adaptive decision making at local level, specially the work of rural technician, NGO’s and of
smallholder farmer’s. The tool is flexible and can be adapted to different rural realities worldwide
and even to non-rural contexts. To present the potential of RADAR, the assessment system is applied
to contexts within Brazilian Semi-arid region.ConclusionsRadar has potential to support adaptive
decision making at local level. It is easy to use, allows comparison among different vulnerability
contexts and incorporates the importance of scales in assessment process. It is expected that Radar
optimizes rapid diagnosis of vulnerability and the identification of entry points for adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSING VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS FOR PRAGMATIC ADAPTATION IN

THE CARIBBEAN
Donovan Campbell (1) *

The CARIBSAVE Partnership, Kingston, Jamaica (1)
contact: donovan.campbell@caribsave.org
Abstract
Caribbean countries are particularly exposed to extreme climate-related events, which will likely be
exacerbated on climate change conditions. Yet, these countries have distinct and varying degrees of
vulnerability due to their unique environmental, socio-economic and institutional challenges. Since
most of the countries currently struggle to deal with the negative effects of climate variability,
developing pragmatic adaptation solutions to cope with future changes is an absolute imperative.
Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) analyses could help countries in the region to better plan
for climate change adaptation. In this context under the Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer
and Climate Change Action in Latin America and the Caribbean (REGATTA) initiative implemented
by the United Nations Environmental Programme, the CARIBSAVE Partnership is conducting three
VIA analyses at the national and local scale in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and Haiti.These VIA
analyses are focused on water resources, coastal areas and the tourism sector and provide an
understanding of the countries' and watersheds' exposure to climatic events based on current climate
variability and future change, such as hurricanes and sea level rise. The VIA analyses also have an
emphasis on evaluating the key ecosystem services that contribute to livelihoods in order to provide
a clear understanding of their status and sensitivity to climate changes, as well as to identify
opportunities to implement ecosystem-based adaptation options as part of an overall adaptation
strategy.This paper presents the methodological approach applied throughout the three VIA analyses,
which seeks to capture vulnerability within the context of a changing environment in each area of
study. The results demonstrate, amongst other things, the importance of including non-climatic
determinants of vulnerability to climate change of livelihoods and communities benefiting from
ecosystem services in watershed areas.The paper also improves the understanding of the main
approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and to what extent their findings are useful
for implementing and facilitating adaptations at both the national and local levels.

12-16 May 2014
COLLABORATIVE CONSTRUCTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN ON

A LOCAL SCALE IN LAGOS SÃO JOÃO BASIN, RJ.
Natalia Ribeiro (1) *; Aline Santos (2); Marília Martins (2); Gabriel Kruschewsky (2)
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1)
Consórcio Lagos São João, Araruama, Brazil (2)
contact: nataliabribeiro@yahoo.com.br
Abstract
In a context of global environmental change, little is the information on the local scale impacts and
respective adaptation measures that can be adopted to minimize losses associated to these changes.
Searching to know the impacts of climatic and non climatic changes on local scale, the ‘Attitude,
Water and Climate Project' - conducted in a demonstrative character in the watershed of Lontra river
in the municipality of Casimiro de Abreu, Rio de Janeiro - contributes to the effective involvement
and participation of communities in the management of the Lagos São João basin, through
identification of vulnerabilities and participatory construction of Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
The educational approach and in popular language, about concrete impacts of climate change in the
daily lives of communities and their territories of residence and work; the training of community for
participatory identification of territory characteristics that link the level of watershed vulnerability;
the use of GIS techniques to point the priority interventions in watershed area; acquired knowledge
about climate, essential to community can quickly identify changes, indicating the possibility of
climate extremes; conducting participatory planning workshop to define the adaptation measures
necessary to ensure the environmental balance of the watershed against climatic extremes, in
accordance with the identified vulnerabilities; are factors that make this project a relevant and
innovative initiative for adaptation at the local level. Finally, the methodological notebook prepared,
is the result of over a year of experimentation and experience next to watershed community,
designed with the aim to provide a guide to execute the Attitude Water and Climate Project
activities, assisting the work with other communities, contributing to the definition and
implementation of adaptation measures to climate change. We believe this methodology can be
replicated for other watersheds of Lagos São João basin, including in water management and
planning the adaptation agenda.

12-16 May 2014
IDENTIFICATION OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR CONSERVATION AND

CONNECTIVITY, AND THEIR VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEXICO.
Karina Santos del Prado Gasca (1) *; Margarita Caso Chávez (1); Carlos A. López González (2);
Pablo Zamorano de Haro (1)
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, México, D.F., Mexico (1)
Autonomus University of Queretaro, Querétaro, Querátaro, Mexico (2)
contact: karina.santos@inecc.gob.mx
Abstract
The National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, in collaboration with the National
Autonomous University of Mexico and the Autonomous University of Queretaro, conducted two
studies to determine the priority areas for conservation under climate change scenarios.The first
study looked at the distribution of endemic, threatened and endangered terrestrial vertebrate species,
and its potential distribution under climate change scenarios. The data analysis was performed for
two regions of Mexico: the Altiplano (high plateau) and the Transverse Volcanic Belt.Potential
conservation areas for endemic species taking into account the existing climate change scenarios,
plus an approach for current conservation priority areas were identified. Ecological niche models
projected as potential distributions of a representative sample of terrestrial vertebrate species of
Mexico, were generated. The current distribution of each species was estimated based on the loss of
vegetation types, evaluated from the map of land use and vegetation of the National Institute of
Statistics and Geography. Also, projections were made to A2 and B2 climate scenarios for the years
2020, 2050 and 2080, in order to anticipate their effect on the distribution of selected vertebrates.The
second study was conducted on the northern border of Mexico, between Sonora and Chihuahua, to
identify corridors and binational interest areas to maintain connectivity of shared species,
populations and ecosystems affected by the construction of the wall border.Surveys were conducted
to determiene the presence, abundance and distribution of 17 mammal and two bird species in
different trophic levels, all shared with the United States. Using this information, the presence and
occupation was modeled.Species selected those in which the border wall can have negative effects
on their populations in the short term, which eventually will be reflected in different trophic levels
and consequently in the ecosystem.The most important sites for species connectivity -the ones with a
high probability of species presence- are: Sierra de San Luis, in the municipality of Agua Prieta, and
the Plutarco Elias Calles municipality which presents the wider connectivity corridor. It is necessary
to modify the structure of the border fence where it is already in place, and avoid the build-up of any
in those areas that remain fence free to increase the permeability of the barrier and encourage the
retention of wild populations.The analysis of connectivity areas under climate scenarios will take
place next year.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY, IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ANALYSIS IN

THE REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA´SGRAN CHACO
Cesar Cabello (1); Rossana Scribano (1) *

Instituto Desarrollo, Central, Paraguay (1)
contact: rscribano@desarrollo.edu.py
Abstract
s part of the Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Action on Climate Change
(REGATTA), an initiative being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme in
Latin America and the Caribbean region, vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) analysis was
carried out in South America´s Gran Chaco region. The study´s objectives were to understand the
region´s vulnerability to climate change in the agriculture and water resource sectors and to identify
and prioritize adaptation options, with an emphasis on ecosystem-based approaches (EbA), for
adaptation planning at the national and local scale. Vulnerability was assessed based on future
climate scenarios generated from the PRECIS model under the A2 scenario. The outputs from the
model were used to analyze the sensitivity of key agriculture crops and water resources. The adaptive
capacity of the population was evaluated based on an Index of Adaptive Capacity that was
constructed using indicators to measure the following capacities: Human, social, natural, economic
and productive, infrastructure, and institutional. In order to identify local and relevant adaptation
options, the results from the VIA analysis were presented during three sets of workshops with
participants from local and national governments, regional institutions, NGOS and community
groups. Using participatory methods workshop participants identified and prioritized adaptation
options based on the findings from the study. A common outcome from all three workshops was a
strong preference for EbA measures such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry and silvo-pastoral
systems and rainwater harvesting. The results from this climate change VIA analysis has filled a
significant gap in the region by producing local information based on rigorous scientific and
participatory methods. It is anticipated that the information from this study will assist local and
national governments and project developers to design and implement adaptation actions and plans
that are effective and site specific.

12-16 May 2014
DEVELOPING AN ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO GLOBAL

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: THE CASE OF LAGOS SAO JOAO BASIN, RIO DE
JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL
Natalia Barbosa Ribeiro (1) *; Rosa Fomiga Johnsson (1)

Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1)
contact: nataliabribeiro@yahoo.com.br
Abstract
This study aims to contribute to the development of a methodology for the analysis of watersheds
ecological vulnerability, focusing on freshwater ecosystems. It was developed from a methodological
base proposed by WWF and its adapted application to Lagos São João Basin. With this
methodology, it was possible to perform a multi-criteria analysis identifying, by one side, the major
stressors affecting the ecological integrity of the basin, and its severity and frequency, by
collaborative evaluation of a panel of experts; on the other side, was evaluated the basin sensitivity to
stressors identified. The use of geographic information system tools allowed spatialize, locate and
quantify the treats (stressors), generating maps of ecological risk, identifying in particular, the units
more unbalanced of the territory in question. These are priority in actions of aquatic ecosystems
conservation, and provided ecosystems services, which depends much of the population of the basin.
Can be conclude, therefore, that this dissertation presents two main contributions: a global and
preliminary study of Lagos São João Basin ecological integrity, and, above all, the adaptations and
detailing of the methodology base developed by WWF, replicable to other watersheds. Should be
noted that this analysis is the preliminary step for the definition of basins adaptation and resilience
strategies to global environmental changes associated with climate variability and change.

12-16 May 2014
MODELLING VULNERABILITY TO DEVELOP ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR

MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF MEXICO AND MEXICAN
STATES
Ines Navarro (1) *; Ismene America Rosales (2); Maria Eugenia Haro (3); Blanca Elena Jimenez (1)
Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico (1)
Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, Mexico (2)
Centro Mario Molina, Mexico City, Mexico (3)
contact: inavarrog@iingen.unam.mx
Abstract
The water sector has been identified in climate change assessments as one of the most vulnerable,
with severe consequences due to expected changes in evaporation and flooding patterns, which may
put at risk available water in some regions. Therefore, the regional vulnerability identification of the
municipal water supply systems is needed with the purpose of outline adaptation policies. It is
particularly important for developing countries where the lack of institutional and facilities
capabilities to face extreme weather conditions, and where limited water supply and treatment
systems are available, require the analysis of appropriated adaptation measures to local conditions.
The aim of this research is to identify adaptation measures for the municipal water supply systems at
Mexican estate level, based on the estimation of vulnerability indices. The developed model involve
10 indicators to quantify vulnerability index based on variance statistic. The indicators were
distributed into three components -exposition (water availability per capita), sensitivity (per capita
water supply, drinking water treatment capacity, disinfection level, poverty index and water-borne
illness), and adaptive capacity (drinking water and sanitation coverage, water supply facilities, and
storage dams). Vulnerability indices for the baseline scenario 2010, and for the A2 climate change
scenario 2030, were estimated for the Mexican states. Projections of precipitation and temperature
for A2 2030 scenario, used to estimate future water availability, corresponded to those developed for
Mexico based on the reliability ensemble averaging method. The main results of this research
indicates that seven of the 32 Mexican states might be more vulnerable for 2030 since some of them
will have a more sensitive water supply systems because of less available water, or will experience a
population growth that increases water demand, and/or due to the prevalence of poverty conditions.
However, the most vulnerable states (Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán and Oaxaca), under baseline
and future scenarios, are those where low water and sanitation coverage, and higher poverty level are
observed, even though water is and will be available; that is, if adaptation policy is not taken, the
impacts of climate change will aggravate the current conditions of backwardness. In that sense, the
evaluation of the investment in drinking water infrastructure showed that adaptive capacity will
increase in all cases. However, the investment in wastewater treatment plants, as another adaptation
measure, would provide a greater adaptive capacity than direct investment in drinking water; it
would improve also water reuse and allow fresh water for other uses.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES

DEPENDENT OF TROPICAL GLACIERS
Paula Pacheco (1) *; Ana Lía Gonzáles (1)

Agua Sustentable, La Paz, Bolivia (1)
contact: paula@aguasustentable.org
Abstract
The impacts of climate change in the Andes are revealed by the reduction of glaciers which are
source of water of many communities. It is estimated that in 2050 the central bolivian plateau will
face a maximum temperature homogeneous increase from 2.5 to 3.5 °C with low monthly and inter-
annual variability (Garcia, 2012). A multitemporally analysis of glacier surface changes had been
done in Illimani glacier and glaciers surrounding the Sajama National Park (Bolivia first Protected
Area). The results indicate that the Illimani has lost 21.3 % of its area in the last 46 years (Ramirez,
2011) and the highest snowy mountain Bolivia, the Sajama (6,542 meters) have an average lost of
9.39 km2 in area from 1986-2011 (Agua Sustentable, 2012). Agua Sustentable implements
adaptation to climate change projects in rural communities, in order to help strengthen resilience by
building participatory adaptation plans based on knowledge generation, the design and
implementation of concrete adaptation projects and construction of public policies and advocacy at
local and national level. Two different Andean areas dependent from glaciers have been examined
from the physical and socio productive aspects to evaluate the vulnerability to climate change
between and within the communities in the work areas. It have been got a complete depiction of the
physiographical, physical (glacio-hydrological and climatic) and socio-productive gender specific
differences and similarities behind the increased or reduced vulnerability and also have been
identified the efficiency of already taken autonomous adaptation strategies. Through an iterative
process and under a participatory approach where women and men were addressed, several
adaptation actions have been identified and the adaptation plan formulated for each of the two areas.
These tools gather perceptions, demands and proposals of communities reflected on the pillars of the
Plan and Capacity Development, which is the core factor to ensure its viability.

12-16 May 2014
SENSORES REMOTOS Y LA MITIGACION AL CAMBIO CLIMATICO EN ECUADOR
Celso Recalde (1,2) *; Franklin Cargua (2); Marco Ridriguez (2); Silvana Zuñiga (2)
Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba, Chimborazo, Ecuador (1)
Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo, Riobamba, Ecuador, Ecuador (2)
contact: crecalde672000@yahoo.com
Abstract
Incluso con los avances tecnológicos es difícil predecir el comportamiento de la naturaleza, se
invierten considerables recursos y talento humano de alta formación con este fin, se implementan
sistemas de información geográficos construidos por equipos multidisciplinarios y ordenados en base
a normativas.Los satélites actuales y los sensores remotos orgullos tecnológicos tuvieron sus
equivalentes ancestrales como el comportamiento cíclico de los cuerpos celestes, parámetros
meteorológicos, comprensión de bioindicadores etc., fenómenos gobernados por leyes que los
científicos buscan comprender.Implica interacción de diferentes herramientas, conceptos y
disciplinas, con aplicaciones en cambio climático, análisis de ciclos de vida, cambio de uso de suelo,
efecto de la producción de biocombustibles, balances de los gases de efecto invernadero y
planificación territorial, etc. Resaltando su potencial inferencial predictivo. Su modo grafico lo hace
de fácil comprensión, convirtiéndose en una herramienta en la toma de decisiones. La planificación
socioeconómica, ambiental y gestión de riegos de una región o país debe soportarse en una
plataforma SIG.Usando esta tecnología se aplicó a una especie vegetal doméstica introducida en el
Ecuador como es la palma africana (Elaeis guineensis), en la que se obtuvo como output con
diferentes niveles las áreas más idóneas para su cultivo.Igualmente fue usado para cuantificar el
recurso hídrico y el stock de carbono ejecutando los proyectos con su nombre corto Propuesta
Técnica y Caracterización Biogeografica de subcuencas hídricas alto andinas donde se combino
sensores remotos, modelos matemáticos, toma de muestras y validación in situ.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATIC STRESSORS : MAJOR RECENT CHANGES AND PROJECTIONS IN THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: MAIN RESULTS OF CHAPTER 27 CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA OF THE IPCC AR5 WG2
Jose Marengo (1) *

CCST INPE, Cachoeira Paulista/Sao Paulo, Brazil (1)
contact: jose.marengo@inpe.br
Abstract
As reported on Chapter 3 of the IPCC SREX in 2012, a changing climate leads to changes in the
frequency, intensity, spatial extent or duration of weather and climate extremes, and can result in
unprecedented extremes. With medium confidence, increases in warm days and decreases in cold
days, as well as increases on warm nights and decreases in cold nights have been identified in
Central and Northern, and Southeastern South America, Northeast Brazil, and west coast of South
America. In Central America, there is low confidence that any observed long-term increase in
tropical cyclone activity is robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. In
other regions, such as the Amazon region, insufficient evidence, inconsistencies among studies and
detected trends result in low confidence of observed rainfall trends. While it is likely that there has
been an anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature in the region, there is low confidence in
attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences.According to the AR5-
Chapter 27 (Central and South America) In the region, increasing trends in annual rainfall have been
identified in Southeastern South America (0.6 mm/day/50years during 1950-2008), contrasting with
decreasing trends in Central America and Central-Southern Chile (-1mm/day /50 years during 1950-
2008). Warming has been detected throughout the region (near to 0.7-1°C/40 years since the mid-
1970’s), except for a cooling off the Chilean coast of about -1 C°/40 years. Increases in temperature
extremes have been identified in Central America and most of tropical and subtropical South
America (medium confidence), while more frequent extreme rainfall in southeastern South America
has favoured the occurrence of landslides and flash floods (medium confidence. Climate projections
suggest increases in temperature, and increases or decreases in precipitation for the region by 2100
(medium confidence). Climate projections, derived from dynamic downscaling forced from the
CMIP5 for various RCPs (4.5 and 8.5), warming varies from +1.6°C to +4.0°C in Central America,
and +1.7°C to +6.7°C in SA (medium confidence). Rainfall changes for Central America range
between -22% to +7% by 2100, while in SA rainfall varies geographically, most notably showing a
reduction of -22% in Northeast Brazil.

12-16 May 2014
ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION INITIATIVES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH

AMERICA: MAIN RESULTS OF CHAPTER 27 CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA OF
THE IPCC AR5 WG2
Fabio Scarano (1,2) *; Edwin Castellanos (3)

Conservation International, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil (2)
Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Ciudad de Guatemala, Guatemala (3)
contact: fscarano@conservation.org
Abstract
In the realm of the Convention of Biological Diversity, most nations in the planet have agreed that by
2020 species extinction driven by anthropogenic action must be halted and that habitat loss must be
halved. In parallel, nations have also agreed on a 100% poverty eradication target for 2030, as a
Millenium Development Goal. Meanwhile, in Central and South America conversion of natural
ecosystems remains as the main proximate cause of biodiversity and ecosystem loss, and a main
driver of anthropogenic climate change. Simultaneously, poverty and inequalities still persist in the
region. The sub-set of practices that are multi-sectoral, multi-scale, and based on the premise that
ecosystem services reduce the vulnerability of society to climate change is known as Ecosystem-
based Adaptation (EbA). EbA include practices such as the effective management and establishment
of protected areas, conservation incentives (such as payments for ecosystem services) and
community management of natural areas. A key principle behind such practices is the need to
understand the value of ecosystem services that should reflect both the economic and cultural
benefits derived from the human-ecosystem interaction and the capacity of ecosystems to secure the
flow of these benefits in the future. EbA begins to multiply across Central and South America and
can potentially reduce poverty while ensuring protection and sustainable use of natural resources.
This paper will present successful cases of EbA in the region both at national and at sub-national
level. It will also discuss some of the challenges that these types of practices face, which include
cases where a perception of commoditization of nature and its intangible values might hinder
effectiveness, cases where mechanisms are inefficient to reduce poverty, slowness to build trust
between parts involved, gender and land tenure issues that might arise, and difficulties in upscaling
from local level to a larger reach.

12-16 May 2014
FRESHWATER RESOURCES: MAJOR RECENT CHANGES AND PROJECTIONS IN

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: MAIN RESULTS OF CHAPTER 27 CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICA OF THE IPCC AR5 WG2
Sebastian Vicuna (1) *

Centro de Cambio Global UC, Santiago, Chile (1)
contact: svicuna@uc.cl
Abstract
Central and South America are regions with a high average but unevenly distributed water resources
availability. The main user of water is agriculture followed by the region's 580 million inhabitants. In
terms of non-consumptive water uses, according, the region meets 60% of its electricity demand
through hydropower generation, which contrast with the 20% average contribution of other
regions.The availability of these water resources has changed in recent period and is expected to
change in the future due to climate change impacts. The most robust trend for major rivers in the
region is found in the sub-basins of the La Plata River basin which show a positive trend in
streamflow in the second half of the 20th century. Another clear example of ongoing changes are
receding glaciers (both tropical and extratropical) and related changes in the Andes cryosphere which
affect water availability for urban, agriculture and hydropower water supply. Finally there are studies
showing reducing runoff in Central Andes (Chile, Argentina) and Central America. In contrast a
series of studies found no clear long-term trend for the Amazon River, owing to its strong
interannual and decadal variability.A series of policies have been developed to reduced vulnerability
to climate variability as faced today in different regions and settings of CA and SA. The particular
experience in Northeast Brazil provides many examples of adaptation strategies.An assessment of
the literature that has portray the historic trends and the future impacts of climate change and
adaptation options in relation to freshwater resources was recently included in the Central and South
America Chapter of IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report currently in the later stages of
government review. As part of other similar presentations I present in this session a synthesis of the
findings presented in this chapter.

12-16 May 2014
LESSONS LEARNED FROM AUTONOMOUS AND PLANNED ADAPTATION

EXPERIENCES EN CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: MAIN RESULTS OF CHAPTER
27 CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA OF THE IPCC AR5 WG2.
Edwin Castellanos (1) *

Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala (1)
contact: ecastell@uvg.edu.gt
Abstract
There is a general consensus that adaptive capacity to natural hazards is low in developing and
emerging countries in Central and South America (CA and SA) and this is in part a result of the
relatively high poverty levels in the region, which act as a key determinant of vulnerability. CA and
some parts of SA have traditionally been characterized as regions with high exposure to geo-climatic
hazards as a result of their location and topography. The increase in extreme events during the past
30 years, including storms, floods and droughts, have impacted the region severely resulting in high
loses of human lives and income. Even though there is some recognition of the importance of
traditional knowledge in the region to increase the adaptation potential of remote and economically
poor regions of CA and SA, it is uncertain how such knowledge can help communities face the
nature of future changes which are expected to be more severe compared to recent past
disasters.Autonomous adaptation practices are mainly implemented at individual or communitarian
levels in the region and they are not always responding specifically to climate forcing, but may be a
response to a combination of stressors. The southward migration of agriculture activities of cash
crops such as wine, coffee and soybeans in SA can also be seen as an autonomous adaptation process
that may endanger the stability of key ecosystems.Planned adaptation policies have been promoted
by some governments and are strengthened by the participation in international networks that allow
the exchange of knowledge and experiences. Important examples include the Ibero-American
Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change and the Climate Change Strategy adopted by the
Central American Commission for Environment and Development. However, there are still major
constraints related to the capacity and resources needed to support the implementation of adaptation
policies.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION IN THE WATER SECTOR: THE CASE OF TRADITIONAL HAND DUG

WELLS (HDWS) IN THE RURAL COMMUNITIES OF CAMEROON
Wamba André Le Doux (1) *

African Groundwater Network (AGW-Net), Douala, Cameroon (1)
contact: andre_ledouxcm@yahoo.fr
Abstract
The population of Cameroon is about 20 millions of habitants.10 millions of persons live in arid and
semi-arid lands. The country boasts major underground water resources spread over the country’s
main water-bearing areas. In all, the country has at least 120 billion m3 of useable groundwater
resources; unevenly distributed. The proportion of Cameroon’s population with access to clean water
was estimated at 57.8 per cent in 2005.For rural areas, the estimation was 40 per cent.Our objective
shows how groundwater is usually developed through community initiative and building
partnerships. The method proposed here involves three stages: the decision to establish a new, or
renovate and existing Hand Dug Wells (HDWs) in the village, the construction/installation of the
HDWs and Its management. Groundwater Management helps for the water supply and adaptation in
Rural Communities of Cameroon. It provides information on the distribution of groundwater
resources and the feasibility of the water supply technology through the building of traditional Hand
Dug Wells. The results are the monitoring, the management of the HDWs by the rural communities,
the training of diggers, builders and users of HDWs, the sustainability, the availability of water and
the supply of villages with water.Our conclusion includes the village subsistence -level cropping-
with groundwater use for the cultivation of vegetable gardens and seedlings to the improvement of
food security at local scale. We also recommend that the technology of building HDWs been
developed further for improving water-supply in many areas in Africa. This communal approach
based on the building of more HDWs could help the ‘UN Millennium Development Goals’ for rural
water supply to be met.

12-16 May 2014
IWRM; A GOAL-BASED PERFORMANCE APPROACH IN FORMULATION OF

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN KARKHEH BASIN, IRAN
Hamidreza Solaymani (1) *; A.K. Gosain (1)

Indian Institute of Technology- Delhi (IITD), Delhi, India (1)
contact: h.solaymani@civil.iitd.ac.in
Abstract
The present study is focused on the adaptation formulation in water management under of a
watershed using IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management) approach. In a watershed based
studies, a regional hydrological cycle is bounded by the watershed that is more appropriate spatial
entity than an administrative boundary. IWRM approach looks for a framework, which addresses
policy objectives and the physical state in the watershed. This approach recognises looks for the
agreements between different water beneficiaries including agriculture, natural system and industry.
The present study has been conducted to explore adaptation options to address implications on
account of climate change impacts in Karkheh Basin (KB) - Iran. SWAT model has been used for
impact assessment analysis. The results of climate change impacts were obtained by using the future
climate condition with future ‘PRECIS’ and ‘REMO’ regional climate models dynamically
downscaled from the latest GCMs. It has been found that there shall be explicit deficit in water and
crop yield during the end century (2070-2099).There are broad operations in IWRM approach that
have been characterized for formulation of adaptation options. The priority of the IWRM was
achieved based on questionnaire, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats), and
Partial Order Analysis (POA) in four possible options: management operations for agricultural,
management operations for natural system purpose, changing crop pattern, and changing the land-
use. KEY WORDS: IWRM, Adaptation, SWAT Model, KARKHE Basin, SWOT, POA

12-16 May 2014
LINKING LARGE SCALE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY WITH

INDIVIDUAL ACTION FOR ADAPTATION USING THE WATER FOOTPRINT
APPROACH
Katrin Schneider (1); Paul Schattan (1); Christin Haida (1,2); Christian Dobler (1); Elisabeth Schaber
(1); Matthias Huttenlau (1) *
alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria (1)
University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (2)
contact: schneider@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Water resources will be affected by climate change impacts such as increased temperatures or a shift
in precipitation patterns. This will alter direct water supply and management options, e.g.
hydropower production, irrigation and water abstraction. To face these changes, adaptation and
management options are necessary in order to secure a sustainable water supply.This presentation
combines an assessment of potential hydrology-climatological changes on the one hand, and possible
actions to increase awareness for water consumption and water management on the other hand.
Firstly, we analysed projected temperature and precipitation changes in SE Europe, Turkey and the
Caucasus and their effects on runoff regimes. Secondly, we present an approach to increase
awareness for direct and indirect water consumption by using the water footprint concept on a
secondary school level. For the hydro-climatological analysis, temperature and precipitation
projections are based on an ensemble of 16 CMIP3 General Circulation Models and three SRES
emission scenario (A2 (high), A1B (mean) and B1 (low)) for 2040 - 2069. Furthermore we assessed
potential climate change impacts on the runoff generation (e.g. mean monthly runoff) for different
catchments in the study regions. The results indicate that future runoff generation will shift towards
an earlier peak discharge (e.g. shifting from summer to spring or winter peaks) or that runoff
generally decreases. The magnitude of projected changes, however, depends on the
temperature/precipitation projection chosen. Despite the range of projected changes, the simulations
clearly indicate a need for adaptation measures to sustain water supply and consumption in the study
region.Breaking down these large scale adaptation needs to individual action is the aim of an
awareness creation programme at secondary school level. Students learn about their direct and
indirect water consumption by using the water footprint approach. The effects of individual
consumption patterns are linked to the virtual water content of commodities. By learning about
virtual water the students realize that their consumption patterns may strongly influence water
management in regions far away from their home catchments, and also may be reflected in global
virtual water fluxes. This programme illustrates the need to link large scale processes and/or
processes occurring away from one's own backyard with individual action and adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSMENT OF BASIN WATER DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE WATER

FOOTPRINT CONCEPT: A CASE STUDY IN THE RIO BUENO MUNICIPALITY (DE
LOS RÍOS REGION, CHILE).
Dana Jimenez (1,3) *; Laura Nahuelhual (2,3); Alejandra Carmona (3)

Magister of Science Program, Faculty of Science, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, XIV Region, Chile (1)
Institute of Agricultural Economics, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, XIV Region, Chile (2)
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Metropolitan Region, Chile (3)
contact: dvj.mella@gmail.com
Abstract
How much water is used to produce a particular product?, How much water does a country, a
continent, use in its economy?, How much water does the humanity use on a daily basis?, These are
the questions being raised in regard to water management worldwide. One way to answer these
questions is through the concept of water footprint.In general, water footprints have been applied at
global and national levels, as well as specific productive sectors, from agriculture to tourism
industry, highlighting usually the large water footprint that agriculture has in its various aspects and
regions, especially desertics zones or areas with serious water scarcity.In Chile, there have been
studies of water footprint conducted by large companies, mainly vineyards. In 2012, a national water
footprint study reports that "sustained economic growth and social development in recent decades
has led to increasing demand on water resources by the different user sectors. This sustained growth
is occurring in a context in which water resources are already legally committed to providing current
uses".. During the last two years, the selected study area in Rio Bueno municipality has exhibited a
constant lack of water, which has meant a public cost of $ 163 million between November 2012 and
July 2013. Furthermore, it is the municipality with the largest area of agricultural production in the
region. In this context, the objective of this study is to determine which productive sectors exercise
greater pressure or water demand from the basin(s) and relate the resulting footprint to available
water and water right distribution.Within the methodology to use are: delimitation of watersheds to
study, then make the water balance of each and determine the amount, distribution and type
(consumptive, no consumptive, permanent, temporary, etc) of water rights (flows in L/s) that exist in
each farm within basins. We will get then the water footprint of each basin, according to the
methodology proposed by Hoekstra (2011) in the “The water footprint assessment manual: setting
the global standard”, so the assessment can be made between supply and demand for water. It is
expected that within these results is that both water rights and the water footprint (each one “the
demand”) are greater than the water balance of the basin (the supply) and this would be the most
likely cause of water scarcity in the region. Or, in the other hand, water supply has decreased by non-
anthropogenic environmental causes.

12-16 May 2014
INCORPORATING RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND IMPACT

ASSESSMENT INTO COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN OF WATER
RESOURCES IN THE CHINCHINA RIVER BASIN, COLOMBIA.
Olga Ocampo (1) *; Jorge Vélez (2)

Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia (1)
Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Manizales, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia (2)
contact: olocampo@autonoma.edu.co
Abstract
The hydrology cycle alteration provoked by climate change may cause important impacts on water
resources availability. Nevertheless, there are numerous non-climate factors as for example, changes
in land use, dams, emission of pollutants, and water treatment, among others that that affect the
quantity and the quality of water resources. Consequently, the climate change vulnerability of water
sector depends on the integrated management of water resources. Colombia was conducting a pilot
exercise to define the methodology of these integrated management plans; five basins were selected,
including the Chinchina River Basin which is located on the western slopes at the central range in the
Andes. This Tropical Basin covers an area of 1052 km2, presents large climate diversity due to its
large altitude range from 5250 to 800 meters above sea level and thermal floors variation; ten life
zones and strategic ecosystems as glaciers, paramos, wetlands, fog forests and the coffee cultural
landscape are found in this Andean Basin, which is the production center of the department of
Caldas. Chinchina River Basin offers different ecosystem services such as water supply for human
consumption, agriculture, industry and hydropower; however, pressures on water resources are
currently detected because of the concentration of productive activities and population. The climate
change vulnerability and impact assessment was carried out considering fundamental aspects as
follows: 1) Currently observed climate change impacts, 2) Future effects of climate change on water
resources, and 3) Future scenarios of climate change. The natural variability was evaluated due to
ENSO which is the natural event with high impact in this tropical zone. The vulnerability in the
water sector was evaluated taking into account the indicators of hydrologic regime. The increase in
extreme phenomena as well as change in socioeconomic trends is the element which contributed to
higher climate change vulnerability. The research estimated potential high impacts on surface run-
off, which would afterwards provoke a higher competition for water resources for the different uses.
In terms of adaptation, the region has made progress focused on early warning systems for
monitoring of hydro-climate variables, good agriculture practices, cleaner production, risk
management and water management plans. Nevertheless, vulnerability studies are needed in areas
such as: carrier-borne diseases and changes in agricultural productivity.

12-16 May 2014
WATER SUPPLY/DEMAND UNDER CLIMATE CHANGES ON A LOCAL

MANAGEMENT APPROACH USING WATER FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTING
Bruna Vieira (1) *; Wilson Sousa Junior (1)

Technological Institute of the Aeronautics, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
contact: brunacosta88@gmail.com
Abstract
The advances in water management require knowledge of the water resources availability and
demand, as a subsidy to define priority actions for the conservation of water. Amid discussions on
the efficient use of water, the Water Footprint concept appeared in 2002 as a tool for water resources
management that encourages the responsible use of water. In Brazil, several infrastructure projects
related to Oil & Gas industry are being installed for operation in the coming years, especially in the
North Coast of São Paulo. Added to the growing pressure of infrastructure development, the region
is also vulnerable to large predicted impacts of climate change since the increase in temperature and
changes in the timing and volumes of runoff are expected to produce adverse changes in surface
water quality and availability. This study aimed to present a water footprint accounting approach for
a local case and examine it under climate change scenarios predicted by the IPCC and the Brazilian
Panel on Climate Changes. We've considered, for a municipality accounting base, the water footprint
of: i) the urban water system as blue water; ii) the sewage production as grey water; and iii) the rural
water uses as green water. The method was applied to water footprint accounting in Caraguatatuba,
São Paulo State, Brazil, for the year 2012.The regionalized climate projections in the periods of
beginning (2011-2040), middle (2041-2070) and final (2071-2100) of the twenty-first century
considered scenarios of high and low emission of greenhouse gases and were withdrawn from the
Executive Summary GT1 in 2013. The results showed a water footprint of 707.3 Mm³, with the main
contribution of over 90%, from the grey water. Climate projections for the end of the century
indicate an increase of 25% to 30% of rainfall in the portion S/SE of the Atlantic Forest, which can
compromise the entire network of sewage treatment in the city, which already has its weaknesses.
Despite the uncertainties regarding climate forecasts for the Brazilian coastal zone, it is important
that the local government consider possible changes in precipitation patterns for the future and also
the impacts on water resources associated with the population increase for the region. The water
analysis should be incorporated into public policies to prevent any supply crises.

12-16 May 2014
FUTURE WATER AVAILABILITY ANALYTICAL PROCEDURE FOR WATER SUPPLY

ADAPTATION POLICY IN MEGACITIES: MEXICO CITY CASE STUDY
Nidya Aponte (1) *; Inés Navarro (1); Blanca Jiménez (1)

Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, México, D.F., Mexico (1)
contact: INavarroG@iingen.unam.mx
Abstract
Analysis of the current and future water availability for megacities, such as Mexico City, is
particularly relevant because of its high social and environmental vulnerability which will worsen
with climate change in terms of access, use, extraction and supply of water, with more intense
impacts on the population's health and quality of life, challenging the water supply system, already
surpassed by the future expected growth in megacities (Krellenberg et al., 2013). In Mexico City the
municipal water flow consumed by the urban area is of 68m3/s, the basin's water pressure index is
greater than 100% (Peña, 2012) and, the natural water availability for the city is expected to decline
16% in the future (Escolero et al., 2009). As in other megacities, Mexico City depends on external
sources of supply where the most important contains 6 sub-basins identified as Cutzamala System,
with a contribution of 15.7m3/s. The System has also its own social and environmental vulnerability,
which threatens the security of the megacity's water supply. Hence, in this work the trend of water
availability in the sub-basins is estimated based on historical data for projecting future availability,
considering temperature and precipitation projected under the new regional scenarios ─RCP4.5,
RCP6.0 and RCP8.5─ developed for Mexico with the Reliability Ensemble Averaging method for
the near (2015-2039) and distant (2075-2099) future. For the proposed adaptation measures,
multicriteria analysis methodology was used considering the socio-economic variables related to the
water supply. The results indicated that the annual shortage has a temporal behavior, accentuated in
the drought period, a consistent result with the past three years' evidence. It was estimated that the
average availability could reach a 27% decrease for the 2015-2039 horizon which could result in the
increase of the population with unsatisfied water demand (2.6-4.2 million inhabitants) and the
reduction in per capita water endowment. In this context, possible adaptation measures including the
control and prevention of leaks in the city's distribution system were evaluated, its future impact is
significant in the sense that the investment in repairing leaks may reduce the unsatisfied population
to 0.8 million. The associated uncertainties can be reduced by monitoring and tracking the used
variables and recording the evidence of the climate change impact to improve the validation of the
applied method.

12-16 May 2014
BETWEEN POLICIES AND PRACTICES: CAN THE CURRENT GREEN GROWTH

INITIATIVES PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY
REDUCTION IN NIGERIA?
Isreal Taiwo (1); Femi Olokesusi (1); John Adeoti (1); Felix Olorunfemi (1); Louis Chete (1) *;
Ademola Adeagbo (1); Olumuyiwa Alaba (2)
Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ibadan, Nigeria (1)
Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria (2)
contact: felixba2000@yahoo.com
Abstract
As reported by National Bureau of Statistics in 2012, the Nigerian economy has been growing 6 to 7
percent in the past eight years, so also has poverty and environmental degradation increased. The
current challenge of the Nigerian economy which include tackling poverty, inequality, energy and
climate change, therefore, dictates the urgency of planning for a coherent response to the challenge
of green growth. Specifically, given the fact that the country is currently facing energy crisis amid
growing poverty, this paper examines some of the policies and initiatives that address renewable
energy development at federal and state levels within the context of green growth. The study utilised
a combination of desk research and field data gathering to document renewable energy initiatives
across the country. It was revealed that many of the existing renewable energy projects across the
country are meant to develop and implement strategies that will achieve a clean reliable energy
supply and establish mechanism to develop the sector based on international best practices and to
showcase viability for private sector participation. Renewable energy projects as seen in many of the
case studies have demonstrated that renewable energy can directly contribute to poverty reduction by
providing the energy needed for creating businesses and employment. Renewable energy
technologies are also making indirect contributions to reducing poverty by providing energy for
cooking and lighting. However, even though renewable energy could be cheaper and environment
friendly, many households are not willing to accept them because the traditional fuels (especially
firewood) are safe, convenient and more reliable in terms of supply. In conclusion, in spite of the fact
that Nigeria currently has no official green growth agenda, policies and initiatives aimed at
promoting sustainable development in the country directly or indirectly contribute to the greening of
the economy.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION OF THE BRAZILIAN ENERGY SYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS
Vivien Baptista (1) *; Amaro Pereira (1); Alexandre D´Avignon (1); Emilio La Rovere (1)
Programa de Planejamento Energético/COPPE - UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (1)
contact: vivien.green@gmail.com
Abstract
Climate change is well known issue of the modern society. Observations made over the last few
years in the rates of greenhouse gases (GHG) pointed to a particular and serious scenario in the
future. With the increase in GHG emissions in the atmosphere several modifications in the climate
was noticed. Climate change has been an enormous challenge for cities and countries around the
world. It is notable the influence of climate change in the society and all the influence of it in the
different sectors of a city and/or a country structure. Energy, transportation, waste, public health and
others sectors are entirely connected with this climate challenge; influencing and being influence by
it. This relation had been study for years, and t is notorious that alterations in the climate profile
could influence different sectors. In this way, this study focus on understands how climate change
could impact the energy sector in Brazil; focusing on the electricity sector. Brazil's energy matrix is
based on hydropower, but it is also much diversified; being support by others sources as other
renewable energies and fossil fuel. The electrical system in Brazil is very connected with the
environment, since the main sources are based on natural resources; an alteration in the rain pattern
or increasing the biomass available for energy purpose could have an effect on the hydroelectricity
power and/or in the biomass cultivation. Since the electrical system is very integrate in Brazil, any
alteration in different resources could affect the whole country. Some studies already pointed to a
modification in the north and northeast hydro basins pattern due the alteration in precipitation
standard of the region. Also for the same reason, alteration in the climate, the biomass cultivation -
biofuels - could be affected its production either in positive and negative aspects. Different sources
could response in different ways due the impacts induce by climate change and this investigation
should be done, likewise should also be identify adaptations for these identify/recognized impacts
and opportunities.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
Ferenc Toth (1) *

IAEA, Vienna, Austria (1)
contact: f.l.toth@iaea.org
Abstract
The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2013) concludes that due the immense inertia of the
Earth's biogeophysical system, a considerable degree of climate change will be unavoidable even if
very ambitious efforts will be made to curb greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades. The
report also projects increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in most world
regions. The combination of these two trends will possibly increase old and spawn new threats for
energy installations and infrastructure through the whole energy chain. This presentation addresses
the related scientific and policy issues by assessing their vulnerability to possible impacts of gradual
changes in key climatic attributes and extreme weather events and the options to reduce vulnerability
and adapt to impacts.The policy relevance of exploring these issues is apparent from the fact that,
according to the 2012 World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency, globally USD 37
trillion (in 2011 dollars) will need to be invested in energy systems between 2012 and 2035. Many of
the new installations and infrastructures will be subject to significantly changing weather patterns
over their multi-decade lifetime. Over 60% of this investment will be required in non-OECD
countries, mostly in new facilities to satisfy fast increasing energy demand. It will be particularly
important to implement these investments in a climate-robust manner by considering possible threats
from gradual climate change and changing patterns of extreme weather events in their siting, design
parameters, technical choices and protection provisions.The presentation will follow the structure of
the energy supply chain from primary energy sources / resources, extraction and transport, through
conversion into secondary energy forms, and then to distribution for end-use as final energy. The
presentation will provide an assessment of impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on
energy installations and energy supply infrastructures; technological options and policy strategies to
reduce their exposure and vulnerability and to increase their resilience to climate- and weather-
related hazards. Special attention will be paid to the adaptation options and costs, their dependence
on the timing of making and implementing adaptation decisions.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION IN THE NUCLEAR

ENERGY SECTOR
Ferenc Toth (1) *

Abstract
In its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) projects relative to the 1986-2005 baseline climatology higher mean surface
temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and changes in other climate attributes, accompanied by
changes in the patterns, magnitude, duration and intensity of extreme events.The nuclear energy
sector will be affected by these changes in many ways. Higher mean ambient air temperatures will
reduce the efficiency of thermal conversion, leading to less output from the same capacity. Higher air
and water temperatures will reduce cooling efficiency, increasing the demand for water diversion for
cooling purposes. Lower precipitation will decrease the amount and increase the temperature of
water available for cooling. Warm spells with higher temperature conditions lasting longer will
exacerbate the decline of conversion efficiency and increase the cooling challenge. Longer and more
intense drought conditions will add to these problems. At the other end of the spectrum, extreme
precipitation events can lead to floods, inundating emergency equipment, spent fuel storage and
other sensitive installations.All these impacts will affect the operation and safety of existing and the
design, siting and operation of future nuclear power plants. The major challenges will be associated
with water management and securing appropriate cooling. In the past ten years, reactors in several
countries had to be shut down or operated at reduced capacities due to restricted availability of
cooling water. Various cooling technologies are used currently, depending on the local climatic and
hydrological conditions. They will need to be enhanced and further developed to cope with changing
climatic attributes and extreme weather events.The presentation and the related paper will assess the
full range of potential climate change impacts and adaptation options in the global nuclear energy
sector. Special emphasis is given to impacts and adaptation options of extreme weather events under
a gradually changing climate regime that are likely to affect the safe operation and the overall safety
of nuclear power plants. Hard (technical and technological) and soft (institutional and procedural)
measures are assessed to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the safety of nuclear plants with a
view to changing climatic and extreme weather conditions over their long operating time period.

12-16 May 2014
THE RELEVANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FOR FUTURE ELECTRICITY

DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF SANTIAGO DE CHILE
Klaus-Rainer Braeutigam (1) *; Juergen Kopfmueller (1); Volker Stelzer (1)

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), POB 364 -D 7621
Karlsruhe, Germany (1)
contact: klaus-rainer.braeutigam@kit.edu
Abstract
Within the project "Climate Adaptation Strategy for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile
(CAS-project)", which was partly financed by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety in Germany, climate adaptation strategies for the Metropolitan
Region of Santiago de Chile (MRS) have been developed for the areas energy, water and land use.
Focus of the presentation will be the energy sector and particularly electricity demand and supply for
the MRS. The results are based on the analyses of climatic scenarios as well as two explorative
scenarios - Business as Usual (BAU) and Collective Responsibility (CR) - which reflect the
socioeconomic, demographic and technological development of the MRS until 2050. Due to Cortes
et al. average air temperature in MRS will increase until 2050 by about 1.5 to 2°C and the amount of
precipitation will decrease, resulting in a decrease of the stream flow of the Maipo-river, which is
highly relevant for the generation of hydropower for the MRS.The scenario results show that, on the
one hand, the impact of climate change (rising temperature) on electricity demand in 2050 only leads
to an increase of about 5% in both scenarios, whereas on the other hand due to population growth
and the increase of the Gross Domestic Product electricity demand in MRS will increase by a factor
of 3.7 in the BAU-scenario and a factor of 2.4 in the CR-scenario until 2050.Regarding electricity
supply about one fifth was covered by electricity generation within the MRS in 2010. Even though
taking into consideration the implementing of new solar, wind and hydropower plants in the MRS,
the tremendous increase in total electricity demand until 2050 will lead to an increase of electricity
which has to be imported from outside the region by a factor of 4.4 in the BAU-scenario and by a
factor of 2.3 in the CR-scenario. The increase in temperature and the decrease of the stream flow of
the Maipo-river will affect electricity supply only by a minor degree.To manage the increasing
electricity demand, which is mainly determined by socioeconomic and demographic factors, the
construction of additional power plants far beyond those which are already in construction or are
planned so far will be absolutely necessary. In addition measures have to be developed, which will
result in energy savings as well as energy diversification which go far beyond those, already
implemented in the scenarios.

12-16 May 2014
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO STUDY ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OPTIONS

ON ENERGY SECTOR IN CHILE
Eduardo Bustos (1) *; Enzo Sauma (1,2); Andrés Pica (3); José Miguel Valdéz (3); Sebastián Vicuña
(1)
Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (1)
Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial y de Sistemas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
GreenLabUC, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (3)
contact: efbustos@uc.cl
Abstract
Developing countries with middle income and high growth rates as Chile, are faced with the
challenge of meeting a growing energy demand with a low carbon robust and reliable power
generating matrix. In Chile, 60% of electricity generation in the main energy distribution system
comes from hydroelectric plants. These plants are located in areas with high competition for water
use, mainly from agriculture and in which climate change scenarios project a progressive decrease in
streamflows. The present work shows some of the results of the government led MAPS project
(Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios) for the Electricity Sector in Chile, which main objective is
to develop future scenarios for the electricity sector at the national level, considering a business as
usual scenario, and also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The WEAP model is
used to model the hydropower generation in the main basins of the interconnected system of electric
generation, which is affected by current and future climate conditions, and interact with other users
(agriculture). This modeled hydroelectricity generation is incorporated into an energy planning
model (LEAP), where all the different generation options are included. In a first step the integrated
model develops an optimal power expansion matrix taking into account the investment and operating
costs of the various sources of generation. In a second step the robustness of this optimal matrix is
evaluated in terms of different future uncertain drivers including climate change scenarios. The
integrated model allows modeling of different adaptation measures at the basin as well as integrating
with the evaluation of mitigation measures at the country level for the energy sector. The results
suggest that by 2050, the sector will be responsible for emissions close to 90 million ton CO2e,
reaching a cumulative total of 2.2 billion tons CO2e emitted in the period 2013-2050. Concerning
individual adaptation measures and packages of measures, the results show important effects of
incentives associated with the use of non-conventional renewable energy, entry of new hydroelectric
projects, among others.

12-16 May 2014
VARIABILITY OF IMPACTS IN HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS IN THE TAPAJÓS BASIN
Guilherme Samprogna Mohor (1) *; Daniel Andres Rodriguez (1); José Lázaro Siqueira Júnior (1);
Javier Tomasella (2)
National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil (1)
National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disasters Warning, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: guilherme.mohor@inpe.br
Abstract
Adaptation policies due to climate changes require multidisciplinary studies including those
involving human activities. Most of the impacts, such as those related to hydropower generation, the
livelihood of riverine population and aquaculture, are directly related to the hydrological regime and
in particularly to the variability of water levels.In this work we applied the Distributed Hydrological
Model of the National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE) to the Tapajós River Basin, a
tributary of Amazonas River with a drainage area of 493,000 km². We analyzed the impacts of
climate change scenarios on the Teles Pires hydroelectric plant, a run-of-river power plant projected
to produce about 911 MW of firm power and a maximum of 1820 MW. Based on the annual-based
Flow Duration Curve, we derived a similar Processed Power Duration Curve to estimate the actual
energy production of the power plant in a typical year.Besides the large inter-model variability, the
results show a diminution in the firm energy ar the Teles Pires hydropower plant. The FDC for the
most critical scenarios indicate a possibility that the incoming flow may be, on average, 59% of the
time lower than the plant's minimum required flow, which result in an firm energy 81% lower than
projected. On the other hand, the most optimistic scenario indicates a decrease of only 5% in annual
production. This study highlights the importance of considering inter-models variability in decision-
making processes, in the pursuit of vulnerability reduction specifically in the energy sector.

12-16 May 2014
INCORPORATING THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN RESIDENTIAL HEATING

ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION FOR NORDIC COUNTRIES
Reza Fazeli (1) *; Brynhildur Davidsdottir (1)

University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland (1)
contact: rfazeli@hi.is
Abstract
According to IPCC 2007 report, warming of the climate system is definite, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air temperatures, extensive melting of snow and ice, and
rising global average sea level. One of the most critical consequences of climate change is expected
to become clear in the energy demand for heating and cooling needs in residential sector.To quantify
this impact, a set of regression models has been tested to study the relation between residential
heating need and explanatory variables such as Heating Degree Days (HDDs), population, GDP per
capita, occupied dwellings, residential floor area, household occupancy and energy prices. This study
covers northern European countries including Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.
Following our expectation, it was noticed that the most significant explanatory variable in all the
case studies was HDDs, while GDP per capita was only significant in the case of Iceland and
Finland.The developed method can be used to project the future heating demand in buildings.
Recently, IEA analyzed five scenarios, to study the impact of five efficiency improvement and fuel
mix pathways on energy demand in buildings. In all the projected scenarios but one -4DS-, the
heating need would decrease, mainly due to the improvement in the energy efficiency of the heating
appliances. However, the results of this analysis suggest that in order to improve the future heating
demand modeling, it's essential to integrate the climate impact. Comparing the findings of this study
and IEA scenarios, it was found that even without any major efficiency improvement, the heating
need can decrease due to the probable increase in the average temperature in the northern region of
Europe.Energy infrastructure is at risk to satisfy the changes in energy demand due to climate
change. The result of this study can contribute in designing the most effective policy for energy
infrastructures mainly the electricity network and district heating system. Results show that district
heating could contribute to the sustainability and security of supply of future energy systems and that
under the given assumptions it is cost effective to increase the share of district heating in the total
heat demand.

12-16 May 2014
SOME CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS TO AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION IN URUGUAY
Agustin Gimenez (1) *; Bruno Lanfranco (1)

Instituto naciona de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Montevideo, Uruguay (1)
contact: agimenez@inia.org.uy
Abstract
The IPCC international scientific community express that the increase of greenhouse effect gas
concentration has extreme changes in daily, seasonal, between years and along decades climatic
variability. Climatic variability and occurrence of extreme events (frost, hail, droughts) result in very
important damages for the agricultural sector and it is required several years to economically and
financially recover from such damages. The Climate Change and Information Systems Unit (GRAS)
from the National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA) of Uruguay, jointly with the World Bank
(BM) and Cornell University (CU) from United States of America, executed the project
“Vulnerability to climatic change in agricultural production systems in Latin America and
Caribbean: development of responses and strategies” (Giménez and Lanfranco, 2009). The aim of
proposal was to outline an action plan with recommendations for development of responses and
strategies with the purpose to contribute with a better adaptation to climatic variability impacts and
occurrence of extreme climatic events in Uruguay’s agricultural production systems. The basic
strategy for achieving the objective was making workshops with active participation of workgroups
including mainly representatives of producers associations, companies and private and public
institutions directly involved and linked to agricultural production activities in Uruguay, and experts
in matters of weather, climatic change and similar. The outcome of the work was the identification
of several climate change response options, and giving priority of three of them: a) Information and
Decision Making Support Systems, b) Water Management, and c) Insurance and other Finance Tools
for Risk Management.

12-16 May 2014
COMMUNITY BASED INITIATIVES IN SEMI-ARID REGION OF PAKISTAN TO ADAPT

TO CHANGING CLIMATE PATTERNS AND REHABILITATE DEGRADED RANGE
LANDS
Sahibzada Irfanullah Khan (1) *

Sustainable Land Management Programme, Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (1)
contact: sirfanullah@hotmail.com
Abstract
Drylands in southern Pakistan are home to communities living in poverty and depending on livestock
rearing for their livelihood. The subsistence agriculture is losing its importance under the effects of
climate change i.e. uncertain rainfall leading to very low productivity. The increasing livestock
population also contributes to degradation of natural vegetation cover, a fact that adversely affects
the livelihood of communities. This paper provides an account of rehabilitation work initiated in
2003 in extreme dry region of District Karak (Pakistan) using the silvo-pastoral system with hillside
ditches and sand dune stabilization techniques. The objective was to recover vegetation and increase
productivity of the area with minimum cost. The activity was carried out with participation of civil
society organizations and farmers' associations.The results recorded in 2012 showed a profuse plant
growth in terms of trees, shrubs and grasses with a potential to provide timber, fuel wood and fodder
for livestock. Maximum harvesting of rainwater and conservation of moisture also resulted in growth
of natural grasses and shrubs. Within a short period of 5 years, plant growth in height and diameter
of 6 meters and 20 centimeters respectively was recorded. The average vegetation cover of 45% and
increase in soil organic mater and nitrogen content was also recorded. All this happened with a
minimum cost of US$ 82 per hectare. On the other hand, an annual income of US$ 735 per hectare
from Saccharum spontaneumplanted in sand dunes was a real benefit to farmers against the other
land-uses in dry sand dunes.

12-16 May 2014
CROP PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCEMENT THROUGH ADAPTATION OF CROP

VARIETIES AT CHARLAND UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION IN
BANGLADESH
Md. Nurul Islam (1) *

Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur, Bangladesh (1)
contact: drmdnurulislam@yahoo.com
Abstract
Climate change results in weather fluctuation widely, such as excessive rainfall in monsoon and too
little rainfall in dry season, gradual rise in temperature and sea-levels, greater frequency of floods
and cyclone. Charland that are emerged as islands within the river channel or as attached land to the
riverbanks as a result of erosion and accretion. Bangladesh is extremely vulnerable to climate change
because of its geographical location. In crop production systems, screening of adaptable crop
varieties for charland is necessary to address the climate change issues. Hence, five separate
experiments were conducted at charland of the Padma River in Kushtia district during November
2012 to May 2013 to select adaptable varieties of lentil, hybrid maize, soybean, potato and mustard
for increasing crop productivity in Bangladesh. In first experiment, four lentil varieties viz. BARI
Masur-4, BARI Masur-5, BARI Masur-6 and a local cultivar; in second experiment, four hybrid
maize varieties namely BARI Hybrid Maize-5, BARI Hybrid Maize-7, BARI Hybrid Maize-9 and
Pacific-11; in third experiment, three soybean varieties like BARI Soybean-5, BARI Soybean-6 and
Shohag; in forth experiment, four potato varieties viz., BARI Alu-7, BARI Alu-8, BARI Alu-31 and
Belgium; and in fifth experiment, five mustard varieties viz., BARI Sarisha-11, BARI Sarisha-13,
BARI Sarisha-14, BARI Sarisha-15 and BARI Sarisha-16 were evaluated for their adaptation in
charland under climate change situation. Among the studied crops, the varieties BARI Masur-6,
BARI Hybrid Maize-9, BARI Soybean-6, BARI Alu-7 and BARI Sarisha-11performed best in the
charland under climate change situation in Bangladesh.

12-16 May 2014
THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA PRODUCTION IN WESTERN

NIGERIA
Olaniran Thompson (1) *

The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria (1)
contact: tonyfav22@gmail.com
Abstract
The study examined whether or not there is short run and long run equilibrium relationship between
cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and Humidity). This is to
ascertain the effect of climate change on cocoa output both in the short run and long run in the study
area. The short run was considered to be within the period of 1971-1990 and 1990-2010, while the
long run was considered to be within the period of 1971-2010. It was established at the long run that
cocoa output and rainfall were non-stationary among the three selected climate change determinants
(i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run, both at 1% and 5% level of significance,
their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa;-2.855384>-3.610453 & -
2.938987 and for rainfall; -1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was
carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test revealed that at both 1% and 5% level of
significance 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated. The Max-Eigen values also revealed that at both
1% and 5% level of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their
absolute values 25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63,. This corroborated the trace
statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa
output and rainfall. The results established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the
pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution in the study area.Key words: Cocoa,
Rainfall, Humidity, Temperature and Co-integration

12-16 May 2014
LINKAGES BETWEEN ENVIRONMENT AND FOOD AND SECURITY IN NORTHERN

GHANA DRYLANDS
David Anokye Asamoah (1) *; Esther Maritza Witlshire Jones (2); Ariagna Laritza Rivera Briso (1)
INACOD Ghana, Accra, Ghana (1)
Ampa Rsource Foundation, Nsawam Akuapim, Ghana (2)
INACOD Ghana, Accra, Ghana (3)
contact: inacodghana@gmail.com
Abstract
Keywords: food security, policy, international development programs, Ghanaian national policies
This paper shall analyze the different rules and actors involved in linking environmental protection
concerns with food security issues in Ghana and the existing perceptions about it. Mainstreaming
food security issues into programs for biodiversity and land conservation poverty is a vital part of the
CCD and the CBD. Programs focusing on poverty reduction and food security are also involved in
environmental activities; examples include the World Food Programme, the UN Millennium Project
and the Poverty reductions Strategies. Instruments of these programs show a broad and partly
contradictory variety, varying from bottom-up to top-down approaches. Indigenous people and other
locals may be involved, while at the same time experts and foreign NGO’s may be involved. As a
consequence, within the various international agreements, there exist synergies as well as trade-offs
between environment and food security issues concerning their goals and also their processes of
implementation. These are reflected accordingly by the implementing institutions from a national
level down to the local level in Ghana. To analyse these, with the means of contingency and trade-off
models, this paper intends to elaborate on the vertical and horizontal integration of the respective
main international agreements and programs into Ghanaian national policies regarding environment
and food security. Actors to be considered will be the major relevant stakeholders from responsible
governmental and international organizations as well as farmers’ organizations on the community
level.

12-16 May 2014
RURAL YOUTH ATTITUDES TOWARDS WORKING IN AGRICULTURE IN GHANA
David Anokye Asamoah (1) *; EstherMaritza Wiltshire Jones (2)

INACOD Ghana, Agogo, Ghana (1)
Ampa Rsource Foundation, Nsawam, Ghana (2)
contact: inacodghana@gmail.com
Abstract
Paying attention to agriculture sector is a vital requirements in providing the population with food
security realizing sustainable development and promoting industries, particularly under the
increasing population. Youth is probably among the most important sources of energy for
agricultural development because of their potential, ambition and high desire of accomplishment,
when right environment is available, the main objective of this study was to determine the attitudes
of rural on both sexes towards working in agriculture, and setting up agricultural enterprises as one
of their first choices of work.Such information makes it easy for policy makers and executives to set
up strategies adequate to the need and suggestions of such youth, and guarantee the realizations of
sustainable development.

12-16 May 2014
UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AMONG FARMERS: DOES

EXPECTATIONS OF EWEACCS MATTER? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE
CENTRAL REGION OF GHANA
SAMUEL DADZIE (1) *

DEPT. OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD ECONOMICS, SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE, POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT,
UNIVERSITY OF READING, READING, UK (1)
contact: s.k.n.dadzie@pgr.reading.ac.uk
Abstract
In Ghana, agricultural production processes largely depend on climate which uncontrollable
changing phenomena have become a menacing issue to food production and security. This gives a
cause to worry by all players in the Ghanaian economy whose concern is to see agricultural sector
increasingly growing and be the main driver for development. To contribute in dealing with the
situation, this study posits that understanding what inform farmers' decision to adopt technologies to
deal with EWEACCs is instrumental in packaging climate change adaptation technology messages
that aim at positive response from farmers in developing countries. It thus investigate into: (i)
farmers' expectations of future extreme weather events (droughts/flooding) in terms of the subjective
probability of the events occurrence, (ii) farmers' adaptation strategies and associated challenges for
dealing with EWEACCs, and (iii) ascertaining the effect of subjective probabilities of the occurrence
of droughts/flooding as perceived by farmers on decisions to adopt technologies to cope with
changes in climatic conditions. The study employed quantitative survey design which involved face-
to-face interviews of 384 farmers from May to July 2013. Multistage sampling technique was used to
sample farmers from the central region of Ghana. Based on threshold decision-making theory, a
logistic model was specified, and estimated to ascertain the probability that a farmer in the study area
would adopt a technology as an adaptation to climate change. This was done to determine how
subjective probabilities of EWEACC (drought and flooding) occurrence, in the midst of other
potential variables, could significantly influenced farmers' decision to adopt adaptation technology
(special new variety) at 0.05 alpha level of significance.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTING THE AUSTRALIAN GRASSLAND & LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE BY SYSTEMIC ADAPTATION: VALUE OF ADAPTATION AT CROSS-
REGIONAL SCALE
Afshin Ghahramani (1) *; Andrew D.Moore (1)

CSIRO, Canberra, ACT, Australia (1)
contact: af.ghahramani@csiro.au
Abstract
The annual net primary production of temperate grasslands and livestock industries is predicted to
decrease in southern Australia with future climate change. By using biophysical modelling, we
addressed productivity and profitability relative to geography, enterprise, and time, while considering
various grassland management and animal genetic improvement adaptations individually or as
combinations. Grazing systems were modelled at a daily time step for a historical reference period
and under future climates projected for the SRES A2 scenario. We predicted that single incremental
adaptations will not completely avert declines in productivity and profitability; hence, combinations
of adaptations are needed. Upscaling over all southern Australia, GCMs and enterprises, the most
profitable systemic combination could increase profit by +188%, +196% and +241% in 2030, 2050,
and 2070, compared to no adaptation. Changes in meat production were estimated to be +24%,
+25%, and +14% in 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared to average production of recent decades. The
potential value of adaptation across southern Australia was estimated as 2.7, 2.5, and 2.9 billion AU$
in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. Financially-motivated changes to grazing systems may affect
the environmental outcomes which their tradeoffs with adaptation could inhibit the implementation
of adaptations. We estimated that a full adaption of optimal systemic adaptation will result in
improvement in soil environment and water use efficiency. However, it will lead to greater ruminant
CH4 emissions from 70 kg ha-1 yr-1 in baseline to 84, 83, and 75 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2030, 2050, and
2070. Greater intensification and ruminant CH4 emissions are likely to occur, as increasing future
demand of meat has been projected and we predicted that there is capacity for higher and profitable
production to respond to this demand. Future food market projections have shown great demand to
meat even under higher price effects.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTING THE AUSTRALIAN GRASSLAND & LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE BY SYSTEMIC ADAPTATION: VALUE OF ADAPTATION AT CROSS-
REGIONAL SCALE
Afshin Ghahramani (1) *; Andrew D.Moore (1)

contact: af.ghahramani@csiro.au
Abstract
The annual net primary production of temperate grasslands and livestock industries is predicted to
decrease in southern Australia with future climate change. By using biophysical modelling, we
addressed productivity and profitability relative to geography, enterprise, and time, while considering
various grassland management and animal genetic improvement adaptations individually or as
combinations. Grazing systems were modelled at a daily time step for a historical reference period
and under future climates projected for the SRES A2 scenario. We predicted that single incremental
adaptations will not completely avert declines in productivity and profitability; hence, combinations
of adaptations are needed. Upscaling over all southern Australia, GCMs and enterprises, the most
profitable systemic combination could increase profit by +188%, +196% and +241% in 2030, 2050,
and 2070, compared to no adaptation. Changes in meat production were estimated to be +24%,
+25%, and +14% in 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared to average production of recent decades. The
potential value of adaptation across southern Australia was estimated as 2.7, 2.5, and 2.9 billion AU$
in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively. Financially-motivated changes to grazing systems may affect
the environmental outcomes which their tradeoffs with adaptation could inhibit the implementation
of adaptations. We estimated that a full adaption of optimal systemic adaptation will result in
improvement in soil environment and water use efficiency. However, it will lead to greater ruminant
CH4 emissions from 70 kg ha-1 yr-1 in baseline to 84, 83, and 75 kg ha-1 yr-1 in 2030, 2050, and
2070. Greater intensification and ruminant CH4 emissions are likely to occur, as increasing future
demand of meat has been projected and we predicted that there is capacity for higher and profitable
production to respond to this demand. Future food market projections have shown great demand to
meat even under higher price effects.

12-16 May 2014
USE OF THE ENSO FORECAST FOR ADAPTING WINTER WHEAT MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN USA.
Brenda Ortiz (1) *; Prem Woli (1); Kathy Fladers (1); David Buntin (2); Edzard van Santen (1);
Mathew Tapley (1); Gerrit Hoogenboom (3)
Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA (1)
University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA (2)
Washington State University, Prosser, Washington, USA (3)
contact: bortiz@auburn.edu
Abstract
Winter wheat production in the southeastern USA is subject to year-to-year fluctuations influenced
by seasonal and inter-annual climatic conditions. Because the winter and spring climate is strongly
influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the relationship between ENSO, wheat yield,
and insect pests have been studied as means to adjust management. Several studies, using data
collected in the states of Georgia and Alabama USA, have been conducted to evaluate the effect of
ENSO on yield and Hessian Fly (major insect pest on wheat) infestation. Changes on planting date
(four dates) and variety (varieties with different maturity and vernalization requirements) have been
evaluated as adaption strategies to cope with climate variability. Results from the studies indicated
that the effect of ENSO on wheat yield is site-specific. Lower winter wheat yield on southern
counties of Georgia and Alabama during La Niña years (warmer- dryer winters and spring)
compared to El Niño years. In contrast, the opposite was observed for the northern counties in
Alabama and no yield differences among ENSO phases in northern Georgia. Hessian Fly infestation
(HFI) also changed among ENSO phases. Higher HFI was observed during La Niña with large yield
differences between resistant and susceptible varieties during those years compared to El Niño or
Neutral years. During La Niña years, significant yield losses associated with delayed planting were
observed in South Alabama compared to North Alabama with a late maturity variety exhibiting the
greatest losses compared to an early maturity variety. Lower yield losses with delayed planting were
observed during El Niño compared to La Niña years. There results have been disseminated through
farmers' meetings and extension publications to increase knowledge on the use of the ENSO forecast
as a risk management tool.

12-16 May 2014
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ADAPTATION ON AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTIVITY IN CENTRAL CHILE: A STOCHASTIC PRODUCTION FRONTIER
APPROACH.
Lisandro Roco (1) *; Boris Bravo-Ureta (3,2); Alejandra Engler (2); Roberto Jara-Rojas (2)
Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca, Maule, Chile (1)
Universidad de Talca, Talca, Maule, Chile (2)
University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA, USA (3)
contact: lroco@ucm.cl
Abstract
Adaptation to climate change is imperative in order to sustain and promote agricultural productivity
growth and the required empirical evidence to facilitate policy making must be site specific.
Therefore, this study analyses the impact of climate change adaptation on productivity for annual
crops in Central Chile using a stochastic production frontier approach. The data come from a random
sample of 265 farms located in four municipalities with different agro-climatic conditions. To
measure climate change adaptation, a set of 14 practices was used in three different specifications
(count, index, and binary variables). A total of six models were estimated, using the three definitions
for adaptation with and without corrections for endogeneity. The use of adaptive practices had a
significant and positive effect on productivity; the practices with the highest impact on productivity
were irrigation improvement. Models incorporating adaptation as count and index variables highlight
the importance of intensity of adaptation for the improvement of agricultural productivity. Empirical
results demonstrate the relevance of climate change adaptation by farmers and enrich the discussion
regarding the urgent need to implement adaptation measures. Keywords: climate change, adaptation,
agricultural systems, productivity, technical efficiency, Chile.

12-16 May 2014
INTEGRATING CLIMATE SCIENCE IN THE AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SYSTEM:

LESSONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST USA
Clyde Fraisse (1) *; Daniel Dourte (1); Noman Breuer (2); Wendylin Bartels (1)
University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (1)
University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA (2)
contact: cfraisse@ufl.edu
Abstract
The challenge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies with an increased chance of adoption
by farmers is to overcome lack of knowledge, misconceptions, and the sometimes existing cultural
and political barriers to constructive action related to climate change. A 5-year project funded by the
US Department of Agriculture has as its long-term goal to build an effective Climate Extension
program in the Southeast USA that will contribute to the existence of a vibrant and sustainable
agricultural industry in the region, that is capable of adapting to and mitigating risks associated with
climate variability and change. By using participatory approaches and taking advantage of
established partnerships with the agricultural industry we aim to develop adaptation and mitigation
strategies with increased chance of adoption by farmers. This presentation will discuss the
approaches used to engage farmers in the project, the challenges and opportunities of integrating
climate sciences in the agricultural extension system at the University of Florida and other
universities involved in the project. Finally we will summarize the lessons learned during the first
three years of the project and how we believe the approaches used can be transferred to other regions
and countries of the world.

12-16 May 2014
AFRICAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND ADVISORY SERVICES IN THE FACE OF

CLIMATE CHANGE
John Morton (1) *; Dan Kisauzi (2); Ifidon Ohiomoba (3); Dady Demby (3); Margaret Mangheni (4);
Ismail Moumouni (5); Verona Parkinson (6); David Suale (7); Richard Lamboll (1); Valerie Nelson
(1); 0
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham, UK (1)
African Forum for Agricultural Advisory Services, Kampala, Uganda (2)
Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa, Accra, Ghana (3)
Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda (4)
Université de Parakou, Parakou, Benin (5)
AGEMA Consultancy Services, Maputo, Mozambique (6)
contact: j.f.morton@gre.ac.uk
Abstract
It is now clear that African agriculture needs to adapt to climate change and climate variability. At
the same time, agriculture is expected, by governments and now once more by development donors,
both to provide food security, and to act as an "engine of growth". In meeting these demands,
African agricultural research and advisory services will be required to ensure the dissemination and
adoption of new agricultural technologies, whether these are generated anew, taken "from the shelf"
of existing research, or sourced from farmers themselves. How can these services now respond given
significant existing capacity and resource challenges?We report on findings of the project "Climate
Learning for African Agriculture", and in particular case studies from Benin, Uganda, Mozambique
and Sierra Leone. These studies have shown the current disconnect throughout Africa between
climate policies on the one hand, and agricultural policies, and in particular policies for agricultural
research and extension, on the other. There is a further disconnect between the regular government
research and extension services, and time-limited, usually localized projects, funded by aid donors
and NGOs. Projects in all four countries, whether designed explicitly to promote adaptation to
climate change or more broadly to cope with climate variability, present good practice and
possibilities for learning, but the level of farmer participation in innovation and learning, and thus the
chances for farmers to strengthen their own adaptive capacity, is in many cases more superficial than
implied by project documents. The need to adopt a value chain approach with attention to
processing, marketing and input supply, rather than a simple focus on new production technologies,
is not broadly recognised. Opportunities for extension services to facilitate links between farmers and
climate finance schemes are not being seized. Additionally, co-ordination between projects and
between projects and mainstream services remains weak, and potentially useful new possibilities for
knowledge management have not been taken up. In the light of these findings, we make some
practical and policy recommendations for strengthening agricultural innovation systems at project,
local and national level, to increase their contribution to building farmers' resilience.

12-16 May 2014
HUMANITARIAN SUPPLY CHAIN AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR SEVERE

WEATHER: FROM THE USERS' PERSPECTIVE
Minchul Sohn (1) *; Gyöngyi Kovács (1)

Hanken School of Economics, Helsinki, Finland (1)
contact: minchul.sohn@hanken.fi
Abstract
The overall purpose of this project is to strengthen the societies' resilience to climate hazards and to
enhance the climate change adaptation research in Zambia. Particularly, this research would aim to
demonstrate potential benefits of weather information and early warning systems for humanitarian
supply chains including the issue of food security, i.e. seeds and crops variety, pre-purchase, pre-
positioning, and distribution. The effects of climate change become more obvious and the impacts on
people and the ecosystems are now broad and diverse. Many organisations are required to have
effective decision-making in their operations based on available weather-related information. For
humanitarian organisations, supply chains and logistics are the essential part of operations for both
pre and post-emergency activities. Weather-related disasters, such as floods and droughts, create
significant challenges thus meteorological information has become highly important for many
humanitarian organisations. By sharing and utilising the climate and weather-related information, for
example short and long-term weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks, agile response and careful
preparations could be realised as a climate change adaptation effort. Particularly, early warning
systems for abrupt climate change and extreme weather events would largely enhance the
effectiveness of humanitarian supply chains. Agriculture accounts a large portion of Zambia
economy. The issue of food security of Zambia as well as the neighbouring countries is related to the
performance of agriculture, crop yields, that would highly be affected by climate change. By
studying the various humanitarian organisations in Zambia, the following questions are answered;
how humanitarian supply chain members contribute to the creation and maintenance of early
warning system; and how can early warning system improve the responsiveness / preparedness of aid
supply chains

12-16 May 2014
POLICY STRATEGIES AND ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR MELON FARMS IN

NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES
Rubens Gondim (1) *; Aline Maia (1); Sílvio Evangelista (1); Fábio Miranda (1)
Brazilian Corporation for Agriculture Research, Fortaleza,CE, Brazil (1)
contact: rubens.gondim@embrapa.br
Abstract
This study aimed to propose adaptation strategies for melon farms based on climate change impact
studies across two production regions in Northeast of Brazil, namely Jaguaribe-Apodi and Low-
Middle São Francisco river basin. Projections of irrigation water needs (IWN) were obtained using
baseline hindcasts (1961-1990) and climate projections from two high resolution regional models:
Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 (2031-2060) and HadRM3P (2025-2055). IWN projections were calculated
using bias-corrected climate projections for monthly rainfall and surface temperature. Both models
projected IWN increase, ranging from 6.0% to 78.0%, as result of future increases of reference
evapotranspiration and rainfall decreases. Important mitigation measures for the studied regions is
the increase of irrigation efficiency, accomplished by system operation strategies and policies such
as: increasing adoption of drip irrigation and monitoring of water application uniformity, systematic
irrigation system maintenance aiming good distribution uniformity. Research on crop coefficient for
different melon production system (mulching, no tillage etc); development of software support daily
irrigation control and promotion of hydrogeological studies on recharge capacity of local aquifers
would also contribute for a sustainable production of irrigated melon.

12-16 May 2014
ALTITUDE EXTENSION: THE STRATEGY FOR CLIMATE RESILIENT

AGRICULTURE AND ITS ADAPTATION IN HILL ECOSYSTEM OF NORTH-EAST
INDIA
Manas Mohan Adhikary (1) *; Ch Victoria Devi (1); Sankar Acharya (1)
BIDHAN CHANDRA KRISHI VISWAVIDYALAYA (STATE AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY), Kolkata, West Bengal, India (1)
contact: dradhikary@gmail.com
Abstract
The technology transfer process in agriculture in India has a history of denial to its geospatial
consideration. While the Hill areas of North East India are becoming the worst recipient of the brunt
of climate change, still a blanket recommendation for geospatial variability has let to a so called
modern agriculture which is suffering from indiscriminating use of pesticides, ruthless depletion of
ground water and expedited soil erosion. The present research paper has gone deeper in exploring the
feasibility of geo-specific and altitude responsive technology recommendation and its subsequent
socialization through the application of community knowledge, bio-diversity adaptability and
enhancing productivity. The North East Hill eco system of India is blessed with bounty of nature
and is one of the hot spots of the World. Altitude extension, the first of its kind in extension domain,
has attempted to include the geographical variations along with the altitude of a hill ecosystem in
designing the extension approach with social, technological, and cultural variants. In this paper and
with this innovative approach, an empirical study has been conducted to estimate the factors of
variations with the change of altitude, for ultimately designing a both gross and subtle extension plan
for desired changes in the agriculture vis-à-vis social ecology of hill ecosystem. The altitude
variances here are being associated with change in farming system, options for indigenous
technology, the text of culture, the value and praxis, the income and livelihood generating from a
micro farming system. The variables values of praxis, income, livelihood, bio-diversity, size of
holding, migration are found to have higher intensity of coherence with the altitude variability. The
entire hill eco system has been found to have conspicuous differences in climate change perception
amongst and between the high, medium and low level of altitude. At every curve of the hills, there is
music of nature and ripples of culture, that characterize it in an altitude reference and geographical
distribution. This approach of altitude specific extension will lead to micro policy generation towards
combating climate change adversities with special reference to Hill Eco System. Key Words:
Altitude extension, micro-farming systems, values and praxis, income, livelihood, culture variant,
bio-diversity, micro farming situation, climate change perception.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY: CONCLUSIONS FROM A

SYNTHESIS OF 20 YEARS OF RESEARCH
Martin Parry (1) *

Imperial College london, London, UK (1)
contact: martin@mlparry.com
Abstract
This paper compares all the major studies that have been made over the past 20 years of the potential
effects of climate change on global food security. Since the first major project based on global
climate modelling (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994) there have been six global modelling studies which
have adopted significantly different methods. Associated with these six there are numerous sub-
projects which use broadly the same methods to explore different scenarios.Evaluation of these
approaches and their results reveal an important convergence of evidence about a) the magnitude of
potential effects, b) their geographical distribution, and c) the most effective likely responses to the
challenge of climate change.The paper concludes with a summary of both the points of convergence,
and the areas of continuing dispute.The global studies evaluated are:- First assessment (1994) using
2xCO2 scenarios with crop models and a global trade model - Comparable estimations (1966) using
FAO agro-ecological zones instead of crop models - Extension (in 1999) of the analysis for transient
scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s - Estimations of impact for different socio-economic
pathways (in 2004).- Spatially comprehensive gridded model analyses (in 2009 and 2010). -
Comparisons of multiple models in the Agmip project (in 2013).

12-16 May 2014
PRINCIPLES IN SUPPORTING TRANSFORMATIONAL ADAPTATION: LESSONS

FROM AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE
Anne-Maree Dowd (1) *; Lauren Rickards (2); Mark Howden (3); Aysha Fleming (4); Emma Jakku
(1); Estelle Gaillard (5); Carol Farbotko (1); Rebecca Clunn (1)
CSIRO, Brisbane, QLD, Australia (1)
University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (2)
CSIRO, Hobart, TAS, Australia (4)
CSIRO, Highett, VIC, Australia (5)
contact: anne-maree.dowd@csiro.au
Abstract
Transformational adaptation (TA) is a crucial option in a comprehensive adaptation portfolio for
agriculture and yet it continues to be generally positioned as an option of last resort: as forced,
negative, reactive, and a matter for the distant future. In order for decision makers to appreciate TA
as a serious proposition in the present, key principles on how to support this scale of change are
required. This paper draws upon 218 interviews with decision makers and other stakeholders across
multiple Australian agricultural industries to present four characteristics that support TA. Firstly, TA
cannot be achieved in isolation even where the immediate decision can be made unilaterally; it
requires a dependency on others which necessitates processes such as participatory engagement that
embrace contested values, promotes agency, and provides adaptive governance. Secondly, networks
can play a key role in driving transformation, as can an understanding and use of climate risk
management tools, access to technical and management options, substantial managerial capacity, and
institutional arrangements that support or at least do not impede TA. Thirdly, the uncertain, long-
term and far-reaching nature of TA means that continuous monitoring and evaluation of impacts and
conditions is crucial - a challenge for the many agribusinesses that do not have adequate capacity.
Finally, the capacity to successfully undertake TA requires not only the resources and enabling
conditions required for general adaptation but specific personal characteristics such as planning
ability, comfort with uncertainty, leadership, belief in anthropogenic climate change, and willingness
to change. These points highlight the importance of examining and * ideas and stories of
transformational change from which decision-makers can learn, but more research is needed to
investigate complexities such as context, costs, and risk to this scale of adaptation, including the
actual decision making processes that contribute to transformational change.

12-16 May 2014
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF CEREALS AND

FACTORS INFLUENCING VULNERABILITY TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS:
REGIONAL ANALYSIS IN CHILE FOR THE PERIOD 1980-2012.
Joaquín Rivera (4,2) *; Laura Nahuelhual (1,2); Rene Garreaud (3,2); José Barrena (1,2)
Instituto de Economía Agraria, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile (1)
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile (2)
Departamento Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile (3)
Mg. Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile (4)
contact: joaquinr@gmail.com
Abstract
It is projected that, as a result of climate change, Chile faces increases in average temperatures and a
steady decline in rainfall in areas that concentrate the country's agricultural production. In turn,
cereals are identified as one of the most vulnerable crops to climate variability as a result of its direct
relationship with climate cycles, resulting in lower requirements of technology and capital. This
context provides a framework where it becomes extremely important to analyze other social,
economic and productive systems factors that have influenced each region´vulnerability differently
and it provides guidelines to implement measures of adaptability towards climate change suitable for
each territory.To estimate the different degrees of vulnerability of each region that concentrated
cereal production in Chile, changes in cereal productivity were observed from 1980 to 2012,
establishing its relationship to climate variability over this period, through a crop failure index,
identifying cases of crop production anomalies asociated toon the drought event registered in norh-
central Chile since 2006. The analysis is based on the assumption that, in cases where climate
variability causes a significant loss of productivity, there are underlying social, economic and
productive systems factors that influence negativelythe expected productivity.This index shows a
geographical and temporal overview of the behaviour of the productivity under climate variability;
thre is also evidence of a significant correlation between changes in climate, particularly rainfall, and
productivity. However, these variations are not expressed equally in each of the studied regions,
while variations according to different periods are also visible. In order to identify the factors that
could influence n vulnerability levels of cereals production, the crop failure index was correlated
with social, economic and productive systems variabless of each region.It is noted that many of the
indicators that are commonly used in ex -ante estimations of vulnerability, have different degrees of
correlation with each territory. This allowed us to identify the characteristics of each region which
more significantly influenced vulnerability levels, leading to develop adaptation strategies to address
the effects of climate change effectively in each geographic context analyzed.

12-16 May 2014
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF CEREALS AND

FACTORS INFLUENCING VULNERABILITY TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS:
REGIONAL ANALYSIS IN CHILE FOR THE PERIOD 1980-2012.
Joaquín Rivera (4,2) *; Laura Nahuelhual (1,2); Rene Garreaud (3,2); José Barrena (1,2)
Instituto de Economía Agraria, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile (1)
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile (2)
Departamento Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile (3)
Mg. Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile (4)
contact: joaquinr@gmail.com
Abstract
It is projected that, as a result of climate change, Chile faces increases in average temperatures and a
steady decline in rainfall in areas that concentrate the country's agricultural production. In turn,
cereals are identified as one of the most vulnerable crops to climate variability as a result of its direct
relationship with climate cycles, resulting in lower requirements of technology and capital. This
context provides a framework where it becomes extremely important to analyze other social,
economic and productive systems factors that have influenced each region´vulnerability differently
and it provides guidelines to implement measures of adaptability towards climate change suitable for
each territory.To estimate the different degrees of vulnerability of each region that concentrated
cereal production in Chile, changes in cereal productivity were observed from 1980 to 2012,
establishing its relationship to climate variability over this period, through a crop failure index,
identifying cases of crop production anomalies asociated toon the drought event registered in norh-
central Chile since 2006. The analysis is based on the assumption that, in cases where climate
variability causes a significant loss of productivity, there are underlying social, economic and
productive systems factors that influence negativelythe expected productivity.This index shows a
geographical and temporal overview of the behaviour of the productivity under climate variability;
thre is also evidence of a significant correlation between changes in climate, particularly rainfall, and
productivity. However, these variations are not expressed equally in each of the studied regions,
while variations according to different periods are also visible. In order to identify the factors that
could influence n vulnerability levels of cereals production, the crop failure index was correlated
with social, economic and productive systems variabless of each region.It is noted that many of the
indicators that are commonly used in ex -ante estimations of vulnerability, have different degrees of
correlation with each territory. This allowed us to identify the characteristics of each region which
more significantly influenced vulnerability levels, leading to develop adaptation strategies to address
the effects of climate change effectively in each geographic context analyzed.

12-16 May 2014
INTEGRATED AGRICULTURE, A POSSIBLE COMMUNITY BASED ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE
Hasan Mohammed Asiful Hoque (1); S.M. Atiqul Islam (1); Md. Showkat Osman (1) *
Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Research (3CSR), Dhaka University of Engineering & Technology, Gazipur, Gazipur,
Bangladesh (1)
contact: pd.cobit@gmail.com
Abstract
About half of the country’s total labor force is somehow employed in agricultural sector. Impacts of
climate change have become a growing concern for agriculture in Bangladesh as well as in the other
countries of South and South-East Asia in recent years. Shifting rainfall pattern along with salinity
intrusion as a result of sea level rise have made the sector very much vulnerable. Occurrence of
extreme events like catastrophic cyclones has become more frequent. Increasing population is an
added pressure to this sector as agricultural lands are transformed into households and rest of it is
split into parts and pieces. This combined effect of climate change impact and population pressure is
gradually making the agricultural land scarce. Reduced monsoon rainfall and intrusion of saline
water through coastal flooding and storm surges are shortening the irrigation water availability. To
make the most out of these scarce resources, an integrated approach of agriculture is needed. This
paper is based on the interim outcome of a pilot research on integrated farming in the saline prone
southern coastal region of Bangladesh. A combination of agriculture, aquaculture, vegetable
gardening, container gardening and fish farming was implemented in the research. Container
gardening was introduced in case of extreme salinity in agricultural land and irrigation water.
Biological method was applied for pest control. Small Pond Irrigation System and Rain Water
Harvesting are the other two components of the project. Small pond irrigation was found to be very
effective for both on-field and container vegetable gardening. It was also effective in suppressing soil
salinity during dry season. The study found that this integrated application enabled a year round
productivity from the research field. Annual turnover was profitable up to 15-20% compared to the
usual practice. Biological pest control managed to maintain a production rate of 80-95% compared to
inorganic pesticide application. But, farmers often prefer inorganic pesticides due to ease of
application and simplicity. The paper concludes that integrated agriculture could be a prominent
adaptation option to climate change. A community based approach would render a better result
during replicating this scheme by integrating small plots into a larger one. The stored rain water was
sufficient for household level drinking purpose for 6-8 months starting from rainy season. But, there
is work to be done to raise its social acceptance. As a whole, integrated agriculture could be a path
setter toward sustainable development.

12-16 May 2014
EVALUATING 'CROP SWITCHING' EVIDENCE FROM BRICS COUNTRIES AS AN

INDICATOR OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Kamleshan Pillay (1) *

University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, UK (1)
contact: pillay.kamleshan@gmail.com
Abstract
With the BRICS countries expected to overtake the G7 as the largest economies in the year 2050,
there is no doubt that there will be severe consequences on climate change and the environment
while pursuing growth. Despite the need for urgency in attaining a legally binding climate
agreement, the BRICS countries have continued to delay and derail the process of the Conference of
Parties (COPs) of the UNFCCC, most notably in the 2009 conference in Copenhagen. Climate
change impacts are expected to range from an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events, alterations in global and regional temperatures and rainfall, compromised water availability
and fluctuations in sea levels amongst others; all of which could affect agriculture yields negatively.
These impacts will affect the agriculture sector in all countries including the BRICS with the African
economies likely to be most severely affected. Changes in the climate regime are already occurring
and it is vital to understand whether climate change will have severe impacts on agriculture and thus
impacts of food security, biofuel availability and trade. ‘Crop switching' by countries can be used as
an indicator of climate adaptation but within the BRICS it can also be an indicator of political
economic strategies to continue with fossil fuel based economies. This study aimed to evaluate
changes in the growth conditions of crops in BRICS countries; assess the ‘crop switching' measures
and determine whether financial losses will be appreciable from changes in agriculture economy.
Data was collected from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and meteorological
information from national weather authorities. ‘Crop switching' was assessed on a time series basis
in relation to climatic variation. A financial model was then created to assess whether ‘crop
switching' would lead to significant losses to the economy. It was found that Brazil and South
Africa are likely to be severely affected as crop switching results in severe losses owing to reduced
trade with the rest of Africa while Brazil will experience losses owing to a reduced biofuel industry.

12-16 May 2014
LOCAL FOOD PROCUREMENT CHALLENGES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE

SEMI-ARID OF BRAZIL.
Patricia S. Mesquita (1,2) *; Marcel Bursztyn (1,2); Gabriela Litre (1,2); Stéphanie Nasuti (1,2);
Diego Lindoso (1,2)
Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável - UnB, Brasilia, Brazil (1)
Rede Clima - Desenvolvimento Regional - CDS/UnB, Brasilia, Brazil (2)
contact: patriciasmesquita@gmail.com
Abstract
In the last 10 years, Brazil has been an exponent on the field of social protection, with major impacts
on the rural areas through programs that work as food-based safety nets, such as supplementary
feeding and conditional cash transfers programs. The increasing numbers of policies involving
institutional local food procurement (LFP) for School Feeding (e.g. National School Feeding
Program-PNAE) and for supplying institutional outlets (e.g. hospitals, prisons and donations), such
as the Food Acquisition Program (PAA), jointly with the major focus on rural development, have
provided a great attention to the issues facing the productive capacity of family farmers. However,
limited attention has been given to the possible effects of climate change in the productive capacity
of this group and the possible impacts on the food supply for those programs. The semi-arid region
of Brazil, home to more than 22 million people (1.5 million family farmers), is usually affected by
periods of severe droughts. Climatic scenarios show that the region will be even more affected by
extreme events in precipitation and temperature patterns. Thus, there is a great need to understand
what are the main existing challenges related to the productive capacity of these family farmers so
LFP strategies are resilient to climate change and variability. Based on this, this study explores a sub-
set of data from three field works conducted during mid-2011/2012 in the regions of Juazeiro (BA;
N=249), Gilbués (PI; N=386) and Seridó (RN; N=255), Northeast of Brazil. According to
interviewed farmers, the main existing challenges are related to access to water in Gilbués, to climate
factors in the Seridó, and to financial resources in the Juazeiro region. Meanwhile, the utilization of
organic/agroecological system is in place in 91% of the households in Gilbués, 45.3% in the Seridó,
and 42.8% in Juazeiro. The clear differences in just a few variables that impact production between
the three distinct regions on the same biome, highlights the importance of observing the local
specificities and challenges for the implementation of food policies. The bonus payment of 30% for
organic production by the PAA and PNAE also exemplifies how the local income generated by those
programs can be affected depending on the implemented area. Since LFP programs require a steady
supply of products, local challenges associated with possible disruption on production should be
better addressed by considering the local scale and the specific vulnerabilities to climate change in
coupled adaptation-food security strategies.

12-16 May 2014
SPACIALIZATION AND ESTIMATION OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM SUGARCANE

CULTURE IN DIFFERENT AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT IN THE NORTHEAST
REGION OF THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO
Carlos Ronquim (1) *; Maiza Santos (1); Vitor Guilardi (1); Daniel Aguiar (2); Bernardo Rudorff (2)
EMBRAPA, Campinas, SP, Brazil (1)
INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: carlos.ronquim@embrapa.br
Abstract
The energy costs and consequent emission of equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2e) was estimated in
different agricultural management of sugarcane harvests between 2006 and 2013 in the northeastern
region of São Paulo state, comprising an area of 51,650 km2 and 125 municipalities. Emissions from
diesel consumption, use of fertilizers, release of N2O from soil after addition of nitrogen fertilizer,
addition of harvest-derived straw and emissions from the burning process of sugarcane were
considerate. The data used in this study were obtained from the local industry and scientific
publications. The values of CO2e emissions were related to maps of the area of sugarcane harvested
using the green harvesting and the pre-harvest burning method in the region. Images from multiple
sensors acquired from March to December in the years of 2006 and 2013 were used. The results
showed that during the cycle of five harvests using the traditional cultivation method of sugarcane of
pre-harvest burning issued 12,032.7 kg CO2e ha-1. This method of cultivation presented the greatest
amount of emission of CO2e ha- 1. In comparison, the minimum tillage method resulted in an
estimation of 7,146.9 kg CO2e ha- 1. The area where the pre-harvest burning of sugarcane was
carried out in 2006 accounted for 1.01 million ha (65%), amount that decreased in 2013 to 0.48
million ha (25%) resulting in a reduction of carbon emission of 2.14 Tg CO2e. The area in which the
green harvesting method was used represented 0.54 million ha (35%) in 2006, area that increased to
1.3 million ha in 2013, or 75% of the total sugarcane produced, providing emissions of about 1.14 Tg
CO2e. The total CO2e emission in 2006 was of 3.25 Tg, decreasing to 2.25 Tg after a seven-year
period even with a significant increase in the harvested area. As a more sustainable method of
sugarcane production will be used in the future through harvest without burning and minimum
tillage, it is expected that this activity emission rates will be reduced. The relevance of this proposal
is to estimate the carbon footprint of the sugarcane culture in the main producing region of Brazil
and the culture adaptation to climate change through a more sustainable agricultural management.

12-16 May 2014
SPATIALIZATION AND CARBON STOCK ESTIMATION OF CITRUS CULTURE

AREAS BEING REPLACED BY SUGARCANE CULTURE
Carlos Ronquim (1) *; Maiza Santos (1); Vitor Guilardi (1); Maurício Moreira (2); Daniel Aguiar
(2); Bernardo Rudorff (2)
EMBRAPA, Campinas, SP, Brazil (1)
INPE, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: carlos.ronquim@embrapa.br
Abstract
The North and Northwest region of São Paulo comprises of 65% of all citrus culture in the state area.
At some parts of this region, which accounts with an area of 51,650 km², sugarcane has been
advancing over the areas that before were covered by citrus plantation; this fact is causing
transformations in land use and coverage causing inevitable environmental and social-economic
impacts. This study aims to map the land use and coverage changes in the region in the years of
1988, 2003 and 2013 in order to estimate the carbon stock values and dynamism of citrus phytomass
in space and time. It was observed that after an increase of citrus planted area between 1988 and
2003, the region has registered a decline of 37.7 % in area in the last ten years and it is believed that
this tendency will persist in the following years. The citrus culture in the region accounted for an
area of 518.680 ha in 2003 suffered a reduction to 323,109 ha in 2013. In order to obtain the
accumulation of carbon in the citrus culture, direct determinations were carried out in the field. The
result demonstrates that citrus is capable of accumulating approximately 135.3 t ha-1 of dry
phytomass, which represents an accumulation of 248.1 t CO2 ha-1. As the IPCC methodology
considers that carbon stock changes of vegetal biomass can only be estimated for woody crops, the
loss of citrus area to sugarcane was significant. This loss released 48.521.165 t CO2 to the
atmosphere or 13.220.600 t C that were not accumulated in this woody crop in the last ten years. The
results demonstrate great relevance to global change studies, since the phytomass estimative is
indispensable to determinate the alterations on carbon stock. Although of large importance, there are
not much information on agroecosystems contribution in this area, such as production systems that
can be responsible for carbon stock alterations caused by changes in land use and coverage.

12-16 May 2014
EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA AGRICULTURA FAMILIAR: ANÁLISIS DE LA

CAPACIDAD INSTITUCIONAL DE LOS MUNICIPIOS DE PARANACITY Y ITAGUAJÉ -
PARANÁ, BRASIL.
Lira Luz Benites Lázaro (1,2) *; Judite Stronzake (1); Vivian Urquidi (1); Suzana Lourenço (1)
Universidade de São Paulo - USP, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil (2)
contact: lbenites@usp.br
Abstract
El año de 2009 durante la Décimo-Quinta Conferencia de las Partes (COP-15), el gobierno brasileño
asumió compromisos de reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto estufa. Con la finalidad de
cumplir ese compromiso promulgó la Política Nacional sobre el Cambio Climático (Ley N º
12.1879). Para efectos de la presente Ley y su Reglamento (Decreto Nro. 7.390 -09-10), en el caso
específico de la agricultura quedó establecido que fuese constituido el "Plano Setorialde Mitigação e
de Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de
Carbono na Agricultura" (Plan ABC - Agricultura de baja Emisión de Carbono), el cual observará
los compromisos asumidos por el Brasil en el marco de la Convención del Clima.La agricultura
familiar en el caso del Brasil, no puede ser considerado como un colectivo homogéneo extendido por
todo el país. Bajo esta definición, encontramos desde los agricultores familiares integrados a cadenas
agroindustriales, hasta los agricultores que producen para su propio consumo y tiene poca relación
con los mercados de productos y servicios. En este sentido, el Plan ABC tiene por finalidad
contribuir con el Plan de Erradicación de la Extrema Pobreza, que se encuentra en preparación por el
Gobierno Federal, a través del fortalecimiento de los programas de transferencia de ingresos y
aumento de la oferta de servicios públicos.El objetivo del trabajo es presentar el análisis realizado de
la capacidad institucional de los municipios de Paranacity y Itaguajé para tornar la agricultura
familiar más inclusivo en las políticas de adaptación, considerando sus respectivas escalas de
negociación en este tema con los gobiernos estadual y federal, su capacidad de implementar
programas, acciones, financiamientos y la efectiva participación de los agricultores familiares. La
metodología utilizada es de naturaleza cualitativa: Realizamos análisis documental en base a las
políticas públicas sobre el tema, complementado con entrevistas a representantes del gobierno y los
agricultores familiares.

12-16 May 2014
THE NEW SUGARCANE GEOGRAPHY USING ETA-CPTEC CLIMATE CHANGE

MODEL FOR SÃO PAULO STATE/BRAZIL
Tobias Mantelato (1) *; Vania R. Pereira (1); Ana Maria H. Ávila (1); Jurandir Zullo Jr. (1)
Universidade Estadual de Campinas- Unicamp, Campinas, Brazil (1)
contact: rosa.vania@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper aims to support adaptation studies for the Brazilian sugarcane industry considering the
climate change projections for this century and the possible cultivar redistribution. Brazil is the
largest producer in the world with the São Paulo state re* up to 60% of this production.The
sugarcane is a grass resistant to high temperatures and its photosynthesis metabolism is a C4 plant - a
high efficient photosynthesizer when compared to a C3 type. However even being efficient in the
decarboxylation process the sugarcane phenology is climate dependent. The sprouting, growing,
yield and the sugar content are determined by the climate characteristics. The accumulated rainy
days or more than 180 days of dry period can reduce the sugar content during the maturation process.
Recent studies with crop model showed that a climate with high concentrations of CO2 would
increase the sugarcane productivity.The performance of ETA-CPTEC to simulate temperature and
precipitation was evaluated with bias and RMSE statistics. The model output was compared with
observed data during the interval 1961-1990 for monthly, seasonal and annual totals. Precipitation
gauges and estimated temperatures were used as observed data. The sugarcane redistribution
considering the future ETA-CPTEC climate (2010-2030) was evaluated with the Agricultural Zoning
for Climatic Risk (ZARC). The ZARC consists in a series of parameter and methodology used by the
Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA). The ZARC with the future
climate indicates an increase in the high climate risk areas in the west state side when compared with
the actual situation. It is important to note that the west side of São Paulo state is considered an area
of sugarcane expansion nowadays.The ETA-CPTEC evaluation indicates a better performance for
monthly precipitation simulation in the west portion of the São Paulo and showed coherence with
previous studies. The high climate risk areas revealed by the ZARC using the future climate scenario
matched with the areas where the bias showed the lowest scores for monthly, seasonal and annual
analysis.

12-16 May 2014
ESTIMATION OF AGRICULTURE YIELDS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Cesar Cabello (1) *; Rossana Scribano (1)

Instituto Desarrollo, Central, Paraguay (1)
contact: rscribano@desarrollo.edu.py
Abstract
South America´s Gran Chaco region is considered an important area for the production of food at the
global scale. Agriculture in the region is critical for the economy as well as the subsistence of
millions of the regions inhabitants. Because of the strong correlation between crop production and
temperature and precipitation, the sector is highly sensitive to climate change. This paper presents
the methods and results from an analysis on the potential changes in crop yields due to future climate
variability that was carried out as a component of a vulnerability, impact and adaptation analysis that
was conducted in the Gran Chaco as part of the Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and
Action on Climate Change (REGATTA) initiative, which is being implemented by the United
Nations Environment Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean region. Ten agriculture crops
that are considered a priority for the region’s economy, society and food security were selected based
on five criteria. To determine the relationship between the yield of each crop and climate, a model
was developed to simulate a series of annual yields based on observed data from the agricultural
statistical agencies of the countries involved in the study. This approach has the advantage that the
outputs from the model are based on actual crop yields that takes into account local climate
conditions, soil and technology and management practices.The proposed methodology considers the
relationship between yield and climate, which is determined by a segmented exponential equation,
where the dependent variable (Y) corresponds to yields, and independent variables precipitation (P),
temperature (T) and technology s (t) and location (L). Through this equation it was evaluated the
variation in crop yields for each Department, based on the observed data. The model used allows for
each of the three factors (climate, soil and technology) to be separated so that the temperature and
precipitation variables can be manipulated in order to incorporate future climate change (based on
the temperature and precipitation changes projected by the model PRECIS, A2 scenario, while
maintaining the technology and soil conditions constant. The results show how the changes in
climate may affect the future viability of key agriculture crops, however opportunities may also be
indentified for some crops that may produce greater yields under the modified climate conditions.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE

CHANGE INDUCED DROUGHTS
Byron Quan Luna (1) *; Luca Garrè (1)

DNV GL, Høvik, Norway (1)
contact: byron.quan.luna@dnv.com
Abstract
Agricultural crops need appropriate environmental conditions, such as temperature and enough
water, in order to subsist. Global climate change is expected to affect agriculture and food supply in
different ways. One such a way is temperature rise, which translates in a warmer adverse
environment for the growth of certain crops. Another way is the change of precipitation patterns,
which jointly with temperature increase may exacerbate the impacts of droughts in some regions,
with a corresponding reduction of the amount of water available for irrigation.This study focuses on
the impacts of more frequent and longer periods of drought due to climate change, and quantifies its
influence on the agricultural activities located within a specific watershed in a drought-prone region
in Central America. By analyzing the pilot area meteorological conditions, an assessment is
performed considering the hydrologic responses and anticipating its effects based on the expected
changes in the current climate. In addition, the potential consequences of a drought in terms of the
management of water resources in the pilot area is evaluated as the drought hazard analysis is one of
the cornerstones inside an adaptation analysis for the agricultural sectors and rural areas. This allows
the quantification of the potential losses to the local economy because of water scarcity in the
watershed, having as main objective the provision to stakeholders and decision makers a transparent
decision instrument for implementing adaptive measures.

12-16 May 2014
CROPCLIMATE: A PLATFORM TO LOOK FOR ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURE TO

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Guillermo Baigorria (1) *; Consuelo Romero (1)

Univeristy of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA (1)
contact: gbaigorria@unl.edu
Abstract
In order for climate information to benefit society, it must first be translated in such a way to inform
those members of society who need to make decisions. CropClimate is an initiative from the
University of Nebraska-Lincoln that is producing climate-related, useful information for agricultural
decision makers within the USA at spatial scales finer than county level. CropClimate uses state-of-
the-art knowledge in climate-, soil-, and crop-modeling to link the effects of environmental
conditions and management (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) in the growth and the development of
crops. Based on this climatic and agronomic information, farmers, lenders, agrochemical companies,
policy makers and others can tailor their management and services, in the short term to the
forthcoming seasonal climate forecast, and in the long term to the projected climate change.
CropClimate, model the response of current and future new varieties of major crops and to estimate
for instance, current and future total water requirements for agriculture under climate variability and
change respectively. This allows regional planning of water resources, to estimate the capability of
our agriculture to feed future generations, and land use changes of agricultural areas (crops, pastures
and livestock) and its effects on wildlife. CropClimate is based on dynamic crop modeling and its
interactions with the environment at plant and plot scales. Supported by our detailed climate and soil
databases and our modeling team, CropClimate explores crop modeling capabilities to improve field
management of food, fiber and fuel crops for more sustainable production systems.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE AND HEALTH: OBSERVATION AND MODELLING MALARIA IN FERLO

(SENEGAL)
Ibrahima DIOUF (1,2) *; Jacques-André NDIONE (2); Abdoulaye DEME (1); Amadou Thierno
GAYE (1); Belen RODRIGUEZ-FONSECA (3)
Laboratoire de Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan -Siméon Fongang, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique de l’Université Cheikh
Anta Diop (UCAD), BP 584, Dakar-Fann, Dakar, SENEGAL, Senegal (1)
Centre de Suivi Ecologique, BP 15 532, Fan Résidense, Dakar, SENEGAL, Senegal (2)
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Universidad Complutense de Madrid Facultad de Físicas Departamento de Meteorología, 284
Madrid, SPAIN, Spain (3)
contact: ivedioufpc@yahoo.fr
Abstract
The aim of this work undertaken in the framework of QWeCI (Quantifying Weather and Climate
Impacts on health in developing countries) project is to study how climate variability could influence
the malaria seasonal incidence. It will also assess mitigation measures to be taken according to
various climate scenarios in the next years. Climate seems to be a determinant for the risk of
malaria.Many arguments suggest that climate influence malaria epidemiology. Climate affects
geographical distribution and epidemiology. It acts on the transmission by: distribution and
abundance of Anopheles vectors, able and successful development of the sporogonic cycle of the
parasite inside the vector and modulation of the human-vector contact. The alternation of the seasons
or special events such as flooding or drought result in a modification of the impact of malaria both
morbidity than mortality. On a smaller scale we study the relationship between monthly and annual
variations on climate and prevalence of malaria. The study is conducted in the Ferlo of Senegal after
briefly considering some comments on the national african level. Our study area, the Ferlo is a semi-
desertic area silvopastoral which is in the north-east of Senegal, which owes its name to a small
stream, "Ferlo''. Re* nearly a third of the Senegal territory, this large region is in south of the
Senegal river basin and is a part of Sahelian zone where desertification is increasingly noticed. The
rains in this region are characterized by strong seasonality, the maximum more in august, and strong
inter-annual variability.

12-16 May 2014
BUILDING CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES THROUGH

SMALL-SCALE ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES TO IMPROVE HEALTH
Hilary Bambrick (1) *; Stefano Moncada (2)

University of Western Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia (1)
University of Malta, Msida, Malta (2)
contact: h.bambrick@uws.edu.au
Abstract
Although climate change is a large-scale problem, the most effective adaptation activities to protect
health may be those that occur at the smaller scale and are driven by community. This may
particularly be the case for vulnerable communities in developing countries, where lack of data
renders local problems invisible and lack of income means national adaptive capacity is minimal.
Such communities are already exposed to climate-sensitive health risks, such as vector-borne and
communicable gastrointestinal diseases, water scarcity and food insecurity. Improving local health
and household economic wellbeing through small-scale, targeted development activities could be
timely and effective in increasing resilience to climate change in highly vulnerable communities.We
present findings from a study of informal urban settlements in the city of Shashemene in the
Ethiopian Rift Valley. The urban population of Ethiopia is growing at 4.2% per annum, and 70% of
people live in informal settlements in extreme poverty. Significant health problems include typhoid,
malaria, malnutrition and respiratory disease, associated with poor sanitation and hygiene, food
insecurity, low quality housing, indoor air pollution and lack of services and infrastructure. We
evaluated the impacts on public health – a key determinant of community adaptive capacity – of two
development projects, each of which provides a biogas digester system to an informal urban
community of 200 households. The biogas system consists of four community latrines and a kitchen
that uses methane sourced from the latrines, and includes installation of a municipal water point. A
quarter of the households in each community also received environmental and sanitation training
related to the new biogas system. We conducted a house-to-house survey of all households in the two
communities just before installation of the system and a follow-up survey six months afterwards. We
found, for example, that those who received training reported significantly fewer sick days, increased
use of clean water, and improved self-assessed health levels.Small-scale, community managed
development projects that bring multiple benefits may strengthen resilience to climate-related health
risks in the world’s most vulnerable communities.

12-16 May 2014
MAPA DA VULNERABILIDADE DOS MUNICÍPIOS DO RIO DE JANEIRO ÀS

MUDANÇAS DO CLIMA: O INDICADOR DE EVENTOS CLIMÁTICOS EXTREMOS E O
EXEMPLO DA REGIÃO SERRANA
Martha Barata (1) *; Ulisses Confalonieri (1); Diana Marinho (1); Giovannini Luigi (2); Cristina
Costa Neto (1); Frederico Oliveira (1); Carlos Pereira (1); Felipe Marincola (1)
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal do RIo de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (2)
Abstract
Para se atuar na mitigação dos impactos das mudanças do clima é importante medir o grau de
vulnerabilidade da população dos municípios. Um estudo foi realizado em 2010 e atualizado em
2013 por Barata et al. para mensurar e ilustrar por meio de mapas a vulnerabilidade dos municípios
do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (ERJ) às mudanças do clima, cujos métodos de estimação utilizaram
informações epidemiológicas, sociais, ambientais e climáticas que se agregaram em um índice
composto, cujo escore representa a vulnerabilidade relativa da população municipal frente ao perigo
da mudança do clima no ERJ. Este mapa pretende apoiar gestores públicos no planejamento de ações
de adaptação a mudança do clima. Observa-se que os indicadores que o compõem também podem
ser úteis para o planejamento municipal setorial. Será aqui avaliado o indicador de ocorrência de
eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos e vítimas fatais (IEE), que se associa a outros indicadores
para formar o Índice de Vulnerabilidade Ambiental. O IEE foi estimado na atualização de 2013
utilizando-se as séries de dados de número de eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos (total de 293 no
ERJ entre 2000-2011) e vítimas fatais decorrente dos eventos (total de 1.443 vítimas no mesmo
período). A Região Serrana foi apontada pelo IEE como uma das mais vulneráveis a Eventos
Climáticos Extremos no ERJ, o que corrobora o histórico de eventos extremos na região, devido aos
seus aspectos geomorfológicos e de ocupação do solo. Avalia-se aqui a utilidade deste índice para o
gerenciamento do risco de desastres no estado e no planejamento urbano e gestão do território.
Porém, destaca-se que a sua aplicabilidade de fato depende da percepção e reconhecimento dos
gestores públicos e demais partes interessadas de que esta é ferramenta útil e aplicável à prevenção
ao dano, isto é, para a adaptação da população municipal a mudança do clima.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH IN SAMOA: VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
Hilary Bambrick (1) *; Simon Hales (2)

University of Western Sydney, Sydney, Australia (1)
University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand (2)
contact: h.bambrick@uws.edu.au
Abstract
As with other islands throughout the Pacific, Samoa is vulnerable to a number of climate-sensitive
health risks because of its exposure to extreme weather events, its topography and location of
populated areas, its dependence on agriculture and fisheries for food and economic livelihoods, and
its developing infrastructure. Climate change is projected to bring to Samoa more frequent and
intense periods of drought and heavy rainfall, cyclones and heat, while oceans become warmer and
more acidic, and sea-level rise contaminates artesian water supplies and causes flooding.We
identified a number of important climate-sensitive health risks in Samoa that are likely to be
adversely affected by climate change: health impacts of extreme events, water and food borne
communicable disease, vector borne disease, and malnutrition. Using these health risks, we
developed a matrix in consultation with stakeholders to inform priority setting for health adaptation.
We explored the likelihood, scale, and severity of a given event or health outcome; the costs of
actions to prevent or minimise the problem, and the timeframe required for implementation. A
number of key priorities were identified, including the need for more data and technical capacity in
research and monitoring, environmental protection, and the need to build stronger collaborations and
systems to share information between sectors.While sectors in Samoa are well-practiced at
responding to acute climate-related events, greater attention now needs to be paid to planning for the
longer term impacts of climate change. Given existing population vulnerability and limited
resources, adaptation action to minimise the health risks of climate change is urgent but must be well
planned and involve intersectoral collaboration. Prioritising health adaptation needs is, however,
difficult. Information is lacking about contemporary climate-health relationships as well as the
effectiveness, feasibility, costs and equity implications of potential actions. Addressing
contemporary health needs, such as water and sanitation and vector borne disease, alongside
improvements in data and technical capacity would provide significant benefits regardless of the
specific impacts of climate change in Samoa.

12-16 May 2014
ADDRESSING THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF DROUGHTS IN BRAZIL
Aderita Sena (1) *

Ministry of Health, Brasilia, DF, Brazil (1)
contact: aderitasena@gmail.com
Abstract
Background: Droughts are one of the main natural disaster threats in Brazil, accounting for about
50% of natural disaster events and with over 50% of affected persons. Its main impact is on the
means of subsistence and on the socioeconomic conditions of the affected persons. In Brazil, drought
is particularly strong in the Northeast Region, where one also finds the greatest indices of poverty,
and the greatest socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities, and with already negatively
affected health situation. Impacts on health, services and systems: Drought can affect the availability
and security of water, food and other key factors which determine health risks such as through air,
hygiene, income, housing and pre-existing health conditions. Population vulnerability contributes to
the deterioration of human health, acting directly or indirectly to impair infectious and chronic
diseases, malnutrition, as well as poverty, hunger, and migration and its social and health
consequences. Actions to reduce risks and impacts on human health: The health sector in Brazil has
proposed a Plan, based on the process of risk management and reduction to reduce the health impacts
of current and potential climate change mediated increased impacts. This process is directed to three
intervention areas: Prevention and mitigation of risks; preparation, alert and response; and adaptation
strategies to ensure rapid response and health service rehabilitation.

12-16 May 2014
IMPLEMENTING ADAPTATION IN THE COMMUNITY SERVICE SECTOR: CASE

STUDIES FROM VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA
Hartmut Fünfgeld (1,3) *; Alianne Rance (1,3); Sophie Millin (1,3); Philip Wallis (2,3); Karyn
Bosomworth (1,3)
RMIT University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (1)
Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (2)
The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR), Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (3)
contact: alianne.rance@rmit.edu.au
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on human health and community welfare are becoming increasingly
well understood, and it is widely acknowledged in the literature that climate change will exacerbate
existing social and economic disadvantage among vulnerable populations. Far less is known,
however, about the impacts that climate change will have on the vital social and community services
that vulnerable populations rely on. Further, means to attenuate these ‘tertiary impacts’ of climate
change have not been explored extensively.In this paper we present recent findings from a research
project conducted in Victoria, Australia, which explored means to increase the adaptive capacity of
community sector organisations to continue operation and service delivery under the impacts of
climate change. Using a range of qualitative and action-orientated research methods, community
service and primary health care organisations were studied to ascertain the extent to which
organisations and their clients perceived to be affected by climate change impacts; if and how they
were learning to respond to such impacts; and if they had made progress with proactive climate
change adaptation planning. In investigating their organisational contexts and needs, the research
findings suggest that community service and primary health care organisations have a crucial role to
play in adaptation as climate change impacts become more frequent and more intense, affecting
increasingly large urban populations across Australia and elsewhere. We propose a model for
increasing the adaptive capacity of these organisations and, by extension, of disadvantaged
populations receiving primary health care, social and community services.

12-16 May 2014
MOZAMBIQUE: HEALTH PROMOTION INTEGRATED INTO ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE
Maria Kostomay (1); Erik Salas (1) *

GIZ - German Development Cooperation, Maputo, Mozambique (1)
contact: maria.kostomay@giz.de
Abstract
Mozambique is one of the poorest and less developed countries worldwide and strongly impacted by
climate change. Poverty, limited institutional capacity and frequent extreme weather events make
Mozambique vulnerable in particular. HIV prevalence in Mozambique at national level is 11.5% and
higher in districts and cities where the program is implemented, with 11% to 29% and for instance
34% in the city of Beira.There is a variety of interactions between Climate Change and HIV/AIDS.
Not only food security is at risk, also climate conditions may increase health risks for diarrhea,
malaria and other vector-borne infectious diseases, especially for people infected by HIV.To reduce
health risks the GIZ program integrates health promotion measures on issues like HIV, sanitation and
hygiene and nutrition. A checklist is used to evaluate the situation at community level and photos of
local health risk indicators in sanitation, rubbish and water are taken. After awareness raising
sessions local climate adaptation committees and communities develop health risk reducing
measures. By using visual health promotion material they are enabled to understand the context
between health, HIV and climate change. Sensitization sessions deal with issues like contaminated
water and malaria, food and waste, hygiene and excrements, environment and vulnerable groups.The
target group at community level revealed a strong interest and high acceptance and the approach
allows addressing populations with a low level of education and literacy. The health promotion
material can be easily adapted to other local contexts and health risk indicators and used with local
committees and communities in a variety of regions.

12-16 May 2014
ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON MALARIA TRANSMISSION

IN THE AMAZONIAN PROVINCE OF ACRE, BRAZIL.
Marco Horta (1) *; Paula Fonseca (6); Diego Lima (2); Leandro sampaio (2); Duarte Costa (4);
Nertan Junior (3); Vera Reis (2); Christovam Barcellos (5); Sandra Hacon (1)
National School od Public Health, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (1)
Acre Environment Department, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil (2)
Acre Health Department, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil (3)
Exeter University, Exeter, UK (4)
ICICT, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (5)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, INPA, Manaus, AM, Brazil (6)
contact: entomologica@gmail.com
Abstract
Malaria is a febrile, mosquito-borne infection that begins when the infected mosquito injects the
sporozoite parasitic form from its salivary glands into the bloodstream during a blood meal.
Approximately 660,000 people died from malaria in 2010 globally, with an estimated 219 million
cases of malaria infection annually worldwide. In Brazil, more than 90% of cases are notified for the
Amazon region. In recent years, malaria has affected thousands of people in Acre where the
Plasmodium vivax is the most common etiologic agent. Some early projections predicted that climate
change would cause an increase in malaria cases, but other reports suggest it’s more likely that cases
will shift in their distribution rather than rise overall. Based on the Pulse Brasil Project (www.pulse-
brasil.org), a platform for understanding long-term sustainability of ecosystems and health, the aim
of this study is to develop a GIS-based tool that can be used by stakeholders (and the public in
general) to assess the interactions between climate, ecosystems and human health in Amazonia. The
study will be conducted in the Amazonian State of Acre, a region of 152,581.4 km2 situated in the
southwest of the Brazilian Northern Region. Weekly malaria notifications for each city in the period
2002-2012 were provided by the State Health Department. In order to cover the climatic information
for all the cities, we used estimates of precipitation from TRMM satellite (Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission) whose 3B42 product is available in accumulated per day. These binary files,
with a spatial resolution of 0.25o x 0.25o, correspond to an area of 650km2. To get the weekly
average, there was a cutout of the TRMM grid points which were within the limits of each
municipality or, for small areas we obtained the value of precipitation closer to the city. A similar
procedure will be performed to obtain the other climatic variables. The dataset also includes
information on % of forests, deforestation and burned areas. The researchers will use climate data to
assess its effects on the risk of malaria in the cities of Acre and to project the malaria number of
cases for a short-term scenario. All produced data will be available at the Pulse Brasil platform for
free access by stakeholders who will look at climate predictions and determined which combination
of temperature and rainfall changes corresponded to best- and worst-case scenarios in terms of
malaria transmission.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION TO WARMER WORLD: HEATSTROKE PREVENTION INTERVENTION

IN JAPAN
Yasushi Honda (1) *; Momoko Kayaba (1); Masahide Kondo (1); Noriko Furuoya (2); Masahiro
Hashizume (2)
The University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (1)
Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Nagasaki, Japan (2)
contact: honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp
Abstract
Background: To prevent heat-related morbidity or mortality, a heat-health warning system is
established. This system usually sets the threshold temperature beyond which they issue heat
warning. In Japan, the temperature chosen by Japan Meteorological Agency is 35 degree C.
However, we still see the excess mortality due to heat. Thus, we began our investigation and
intervention to understand the status quo of elderly people and to overcome the limitations of
threshold approach.Methods: The problem with setting a threshold temperature is that ambient
temperature at each home varies from very high (rooftop room etc.) to very low (detached house
surrounded by woods etc.). Hence, whichever threshold they set, there must be false negative cases
in which people would encounter heat exposure that causes heat stroke and false positive cases in
which people use air conditioners although actually they do not need air conditioning. In false
positive cases, so-called "Cry-wolf" problem also occurs. Our new approach to prevent these false
alarms is, then, to educate people to drink properly (i.e., drink more compared with moderate or cold
days) throughout the hot season, and use air conditioners based on the temperature where each
person stays.To conduct our intervention, we select a suburban city in Tokyo metropolitan area.
Because the vulnerable population is elderly group, we randomly selected, among those with age
being 65-84 years, 1,018 subjects who underwent intervention (Group I) and 1,106 control subjects
without intervention (Group C) and sent self-administered questionnaire regarding the general
attributes and heat-related equipment and behavior. We provided sheet-type thermometers for Group
I; on the sheet, we printed "Drink water many times" and "Use air conditioner when it exceeds 28
degree C." After 2 months, we sent another questionnaire to evaluate how their behavior changed.
Results: We will present the results using the whole dataset at the conference. Although we have
completed the analyses of the first questionnaire only, we found very interesting results. We obtained
1,153 eligible answers. Among them, 1,141 had air-conditioners and 46 replied they did not. Among
those who have air-conditioners, 19% did not use air-conditioners at all.Conclusion: Although 96%
of the elderly had air-conditioners, 19% of them did not use them at all, and education was
considered to be very important to prevent heat-related diseases/deaths. Acknowledgement: This
study was supported by the EnvironmentResearch and Technology Development Fund (S-8) of
theMinistry of the Environment, Japan.

12-16 May 2014
THE IMPLICATIONS FOR EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS IN PREDICTIVE MODEL

FOR THE LEPTOSPIROSIS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - BRAZIL
Cristina Costa Neto (1) *; Teresa Oliveira (1); Diana Marinho (1); Debora Kligerman ()
FIOCRUZ, RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (1)
contact: ccneto@fiocruz.br
Abstract
Estimate the changes of climate variability and the dangers of an increase in these variations, results
in vital importance not only for the impact they may have on the disease, but also to alert the health
system. The use of climate indices, along with predictive models can alert authorities to possible
changes in the level of risk, immediately or in the near future.Epidemiological data of confirmed
cases for leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro / Brazil, 1996 to 2011, monthly, were modeled
using the method of structural models for time series. The model, which uses the non-observable
components of tendency, seasonal, cycles, and random component (additive model) was evaluated
by software STAMP using only the trend component, weather explanatory variables, and
interventions in order to obtain a proper fit, and trend estimates. The climatic indicators used in the
study, namely, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, rainy days, for the year 1996
are from INFRAERO (RJ), and for the years 1997-2011 are from INMET ( RJ). Once a model with a
good fit, predictions were made monthly for the next 4 years: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.The structural
model set included the components of trend, autoregressive, indicating the points of the month
"Previous", explanatory variables and interventions, in addition to the random component of the
error. The model was built considering the level and slope fixed. No seasonality.The statistics of fit
of the final model were quite conclusive, including the Durbin-Watson statistic(2.03), which
indicates the residual autocorrelation, and the coefficient of determination was R2 = 0.998. The
variable rainfall, 1 month lagged (lag = 1) was significant in explaining the model with p = 0.001.
Was performed as a test of adequacy, a forecast for the year 2011, regressing the data until 2010, and
the model fits perfectly between the confidence limits.A projection to 2015 indicates a trend
smoothly decreasing with coef. level = -24.38 and slope = -0.04, ranging from 5.42 cases at the end
of the study period (2011) with confidence interval (CI) of (0.77, 10.07) to 4 , 04 (Dec/2015) with CI
(-0.77, 8.87).Upon the model applied, leptospirosis cases have a downward trend at the end of the
study period (Dec/2011), with a factor of 4% (-0.04) decrease of the month, considering that the
conditions remain the same, both climatic and socioeconomic as well as policies in the municipality.

12-16 May 2014
INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATIC CHANGES: THE EFFECTS

OF CLIMATIC FACTORS ON DENGUE FEVER IN THE AMAZONIAN URBAN CENTER
OF RIO BRANCO.
Marco Horta (1) *; Paula Fonseca (2); Nertan Junior (3); Duarte Costa (4); Christovam Barcellos (5);
Sandra Hacon (1)
National School of Public Health, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (1)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, INPA, Manaus, AM, Brazil (2)
Acre Health Department, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil (3)
Exeter University, Exeter, UK (4)
ICICT, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (5)
contact: entomologica@gmail.com
Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas and
has become a major international public health concern since its incidence has grown dramatically in
recent decades. Over 2.5 billion people are now at risk from dengue and WHO estimates there may
be 50–100 million infections worldwide every year. Climate affects the dengue viruses and vector
populations since temperature influences vector development rates, mortality, and behavior and also
controls viral replication within the mosquito. Rainfall influences habitat availability for Aedes
aegypti. The State of Acre records annually high incidences of dengue fever, mainly in its major
urban center, Rio Branco. Located in the valley of the Acre River in northern Brazil, it is the most
populous county in the state, with 305,954 inhabitants, almost half the state population. Based on the
Pulse Brasil Project (www.pulse-brasil.org), a platform for understanding long-term sustainability of
ecosystems and health, the aim of this study is to assess the interactions between climate variables
and human health in Amazonia, and to explore the consequences of different policy options. Monthly
dengue fever notifications for the city of Rio Branco for the period 2000-2012 were provided by the
State Health Department. Climatic data based on the Meteorological Station Rio Branco was
provided by the National Institute of Metereology (INMET). We applied a negative binomial poisson
regression model to interpret the relationship between dengue cases and the climatic variables. After
the adjustment we observed that a rise in minimal temperature causes an increase of 37% in the risk
of dengue fever in the city of Rio Branco. The model also projected a protective effect of variable
insolation on dengue cases in such a way that a rise in insolation values produced a reduction in the
risk of dengue fever of 20%. Peaks of maximum temperature also produced a negative effect on the
dengue cases in Rio Branco, with a reduction of 12% in the number of cases, though not significant.
Highest peaks of dengue fever were observed between 2009 and 2011. All produced data will be
available at the Pulse Brasil platform for free access by stakeholders who will look at climate
predictions and determined which combination of temperature and rainfall changes corresponded to
best- and worst-case scenarios in terms of dengue fever transmission.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILIDADE SOCIOAMBIENTAL E INFLUÊNCIA DAS ALTERAÇÕES

CLIMÁTICAS E AMBIENTAIS NA SAÚDE DA POPULAÇÃO DE RIO BRANCO - AC,
AMAZÔNIA OCIDENTAL.
Juliana Duarte (1) *; Leandro Giatti (2); Alejandro Duarte (3)

Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo/SP, Brazil (1)
Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo/SP, Brazil (2)
Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco/AC, Brazil (3)
contact: jluciaduarte@hotmail.com
Abstract
Introdução: A variabilidade climática anual no Brasil é caracterizada pela alternância de estações
frias e quentes nas zonas temperadas e pela alternância entre períodos secos e chuvosos nas zonas
tropicais. Na cidade de Rio Branco, a capital do estado do Acre, anualmente as oscilações climáticas
são intensificadas pelas queimadas e pela ocorrência de enchentes, trazendo prejuízos à população. A
possibilidade de aumento da frequência e intensidade destes eventos demanda estudos mais
detalhados para uma melhor compreensão do sistema. Em Rio Branco, são poucos os estudos que
avaliam os impactos da variabilidade climática sobre a população. Este conhecimento pode
contribuir para que as políticas de promoção à saúde possam ser melhor direcionadas. Objetivo:
Detectar a vulnerabilidade socioambiental da população de Rio Branco -AC, Amazônia Ocidental,
frente à variabilidade climática, sazonalidade e alterações ambientais locais e seus impactos na saúde
pública, entre os anos de 2000 a 2012. Métodos: A coleta do número de casos das doenças
selecionadas será feita por meio da página eletrônica do DATASUS, referência para o estudo das
informações em saúde no Brasil. Serão consideradas algumas doenças tropicais (dengue e malária),
de veiculação hídrica (as diferentes forma de diarréia, leptospirose e hepatite A) e as relacionadas ao
trato respiratório (asma, bronquite, pneumonia e sinusite). Os dados ambientais (Pluviosidade, nível
da água do rio Acre, temperatura e poluição atmosférica) serão coletados na página eletrônica do
ACREBIOCLIMA, que fornece as informações do monitoramento ambiental e do clima na
Amazônia. A detecção das variáveis que mostrem as características dos domicílios (forma de
abastecimento da água, esgotamento sanitário e destino do lixo) e as características dos moradores
(nível de escolaridade, etnia e renda familiar) será feito através da página eletrônica do IBGE,
principal provedor de dados e informações geográficas e estatísticas do país. A associação entre as
variáveis ambientais e em saúde será feita por meio do programa estatístico SPSS e as análises
espaciais e gerência dos dados censitários serão realizados através do programa MapInfo. Resultados
esperados: Pretende-se detectar os componentes de uma vulnerabilidade mutidimensional no que diz
respeito à intersecção entre os dados de distintas naturezas, com destaque para a possível associação
entre a variação sazonal e a sobreposição com determinantes socioambientais das doenças.

12-16 May 2014
USING SATELLITES AS TOOLS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF RAINFALL IN

ACUTE DIARRHEA: A CASE STUDY FOR THE ACRE RIVER BASIN
Paula Fonseca (1) *; Vera Reis (2); Duarte Costa (3); Marco Horta (4); Diego Lima (5); Foster
Brown (6); Christovam Barcelos (4); Sandra Hacon (4)
Bolsista Rede Clima-Saúde, projeto CNPq Processo 573797/28- e FAPESP Processo 28/57719-9, Instituto Nacional de Ciência e
Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (1)
Secretaria de Estado de Meio Ambiente, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (2)
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK (3)
Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (4)
Secretaria de Estado de Saúde, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (5)
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA (6)
contact: pamorellifonseca@gmail.com
Abstract
Located in southwestern Amazonia, the Acre River basin includes the Upper and Lower Acre and
comprises a total of 11 cities. The region is often affected by extremes of drought and flood events
with direct impacts on human health. One effect is a rise in the number of notifications for acute
diarrheal disease which can be caused by bacteria, viruses and other parasites. Signs and symptoms
of infection usually begin 12 hours to four days after exposure and resolve within three to seven days
and are manifested by constant watery stools. For being transmitted by oral or fecal-oral route, the
disease is common in events of river flood when the poor sanitary conditions do not provide an
efficient flow to the large amounts of water, exposing the communities to the etiologic agents of the
disease. By concentrating approximately 50 % of the total state population, the city of Rio Branco
reports a high incidence of acute diarrhea, especially in children under five years. This study
examines the precipitation as an indicator of climate variability with direct influence on the cases of
acute diarrhea. It analyzes a historical series of rainfall, and consequently the river level values from
Acre River to Rio Branco city in order to find a relationship between these variables. The analysis
will be performed taking into account these parameters and the notifications for infant acute diarrhea
in Acre River basin. The dataset used to analyze the temporal variation of the river level for the Acre
River will be gathered from the National Water Agency and the City and State Civil Defense.
Information concerning the time series for precipitation in the region will be obtained from the
satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 3B42) which has a resolution of 0.25° x
0.25°. We will also use the information from the Hidroestimador (4km x 4km) obtained through the
images of the channel infrared from the satellite GOES-12 for these cities. The analysis of these
databases aims to identify the satellite that best responds to health studies relating to variable rainfall
with acute diarrhea in children. This study will reveal the impact of future rainfall scenarios for acute
diarrhea in children under five years and offer the public managers and stakeholders the information
that may assist in the planning of pre and post-extreme event, with the objective of minimizing the
number cases of acute diarrhea and a better resource allocation.

12-16 May 2014
POTENTIAL PRESENCE OF DENGUE DISEASE AT BASIN LEVEL IN THE CONTEXT

OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Daniel Iura Gonzalez (1) *; Horacio Riojas (2); Helena Cotler (1); Noemi Luna (1)
Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, Distrito Federal, Mexico (1)
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Morelos, Mexico (2)
contact: daniel.iura@inecc.gob.mx
Abstract
In the last years in Mexico the incidence of dengue disease has significantly increased, the
distribution range has expanded, so is necessary to identify areas where the projected rising
temperatures could increase the vulnerability of population to dengue disease, in order to allocate
and focus prevention activities as an adaptation actions.According to their territorial attributes and
the projected climate change, we identify basins in Mexico that potentially are more susceptible to
the presence of dengue disease. The river basin was chosen as spatial analysis unit due it allows
address causes and impact with an integrated approach. Three main groups of attributes were
identified to evaluate the potential presence of dengue disease at basin scale: 1) terrestrial
connectivity and urbanization, 2) potential exposition to the vector and 3) projections of climate
change.Considering that higher densities and connectivity between hosts favors the transfer of
disease, the terrestrial connectivity component of the first group was assessed with two attributes:
population density (inhabitants per km2) and density of primary and secondary routes (km/km2). In
the other hand, urbanization, especially when it is disorderly, generates suitable areas for mosquitoes
reproduction adjacent to population centers, this component was assessed taking into account the
absolute and relative urban expansion area related to the basin. The second group: potential
exposition to the vector was assessed considering three components; a) inhabited private homes
without piped water in the area of housing, b) total number and proportion of vulnerable inhabitant to
floods in the basin and c) number and proportion of people living within 200 meters to the edge of
some water body. Finally, the distribution of the vector Aedes sp. is restricted by various
environmental factors, of which temperature is crucial, the third group: projections of climate
change, integrates the maximum anomalies for the annual average temperature of three General
Circulation Models: MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES. The representative concentration
pathway 8.5 w/m2 projected on the far horizon (2075-2099 period) was considered. The chosen
variables were integrated in the framework of spatial multicriteria analysis.We found that basins of
the south-southeast of the country have the highest potential for the presence of dengue according to
the considered attributes; also projected temperature anomalies are larger in the middle and upper
zone of these basins. So, potentially, the distribution of the vector could achieve higher altitudinal
ranges, increasing the vulnerability of population for dengue disease of those territories.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTING RURAL VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES: A PILOT PROJECT IN RURAL

VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA
Hartmut Fuenfgeld (1); Alianne Rance (1) *; Jo Brown (2); Nola McIntyre (3)
Southern Grampians and Glenelg Primary Care Partnership, Hamilton, Victoria, Australia (2)
Southern Grampians Shire, Hamilton, Victoria, Australia (3)
Abstract
The impacts of climate change will be felt most by those that are already subject to social or
economic marginalisation. Additionally, disadvantaged groups are generally less able to manage
risks of all types because they lack financial, social, educational or other resources. While the
wealthier parts of the population will be inconvenienced, the poor will die. Rural areas of Victoria,
Australia are experiencing the impacts of climate change already and there exists a significant gap in
the management of these and the compounded issue of exacerbated vulnerability in disadvantaged
populations.Through a State government pilot project in affiliation with the local municipality and
associated primary health network, means to increase the resilience of vulnerable populations under a
changing climate is the overarching goal. Investigation into the definition of vulnerability in the
context of rural populations, how this will change under climate change and means to attenuate this
exacerbated vulnerability has been investigation through a social learning lens. This paper discusses
learnings from the perspective of the engaged practitioners in an attempt to share experience, and
promote a co-generated model of adaptation for vulnerable rural communities.

12-16 May 2014
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREME

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS IN THE INCIDENCE OF LEPTOSPIROSIS IN
THE CITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - 1997-2009. A CASE STUDY.
TERESA OLIVEIRA (1) *; DEBORA KLIGERMAN (1); DIANA MARINHO (1)

FIOCRUZ, RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (1)
contact: tevis@ensp.fiocruz.br
Abstract
This work performs an analysis of social and environmental factors that contribute to the incidence
of leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro. Aimed to analyze the relationship of the incidence of
leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro by Administrative Region in the period 1997-2009, to
climate variability, analyzing extreme events that occurred in this period associated with
socioeconomic factors.The city of Rio de Janeiro (MRJ) have 33 Administrative Regions (ARs), but
this study analyzed 30 ARs, the time series from 1997 to 2009 trough the Indexes: Epidemiological,
through the variables: cases and deaths from leptospirosis; Socioeconomic, analyzed by variables:
income, education, garbage collection, water supply, sewage; and Climatological, through the
variables: maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and rainy days. At the end we built a Total
Risk Index (ITR) for the disease in MRJ, which can be used to study other diseases. After the result
of the ITR, we selected ten administrative regions divided into two groups: five with a higher risk
and five with less risk.According to the study it was observed the Administrative Regions that holds
the greatest risk: Madureira, Campo Grande, the studied area, Meier and Ramos. And the low risk:
Copacabana, Centro, Botafogo, Lagoa and Portuária. Also it was sound the factors that most
influence the incidence of leptospirosis in the city of Rio de Janeiro is the poor garbage collection
when concomitant with the variation in rainfall contributing effectively to increase the index of the
disease, which makes the low-income population more vulnerable.

12-16 May 2014
OS IMPACTOS DOS DESASTRES NATURAIS PARA A POPULAÇÃO
Silvio Queiroz (1) *; Simone Andrade (1); Karla Ribeiro (1); Maria Lemes (1); Maria Nascimento
(1)
Pontificia Universidade Católica de Goiás, Goiânia/Goiás, Brazil (1)
contact: silvio.resgate@gmail.com
Abstract
Silvio J Queiroz Karla K N Ribeiro Maria M D Lemes Simone Andrade Pontifícia
Universidade Católica de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás. Brasil. Introdução: Os desastres naturais são
resultados de eventos adversos, sendo eles naturais ou provocados pelo homem, dentro de um
ecossistema vulnerável, causando danos humanos, materiais e ambientais e consequentes prejuízos
econômicos e sociais. Sua intensidade depende da interação entre a magnitude do evento adverso e a
vulnerabilidade do sistema, sendo quantificada em função dos danos e prejuízos ocorridos. Para a
saúde pública, os desastres naturais tem se tornado um importante desafio, causando óbitos, lesões
ou enfermidades que podem exceder a capacidade de resposta dos serviços locais de saúde,
comprometendo o seu adequado funcionamento com graves consequências a curto, médio e longo
prazo. Objetivos: conhecer os impactos dos desastres naturais para a população. Método: Trata-se de
um estudo de revisão bibliográfica. Foram utilizados artigos em português, espanhol e inglês
publicados nas bases de dados virtuais: DESASTRES, Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em
Ciências da Saúde e revista eletrônica Cientific Eletronic Library Online, no período de 2003 a
2013. Resultados: As consequências pós-desastre estão relacionadas principalmente a destruição da
infraestrutura como a de saneamento ambiental, gerando a exposição a doenças infecciosas,
principalmente entre crianças. A população desabrigada passa a viver em abrigos com precário
fornecimento de alimentos e condições insalubres, expondo crianças e mulheres lactantes aos riscos
de doenças e desnutrição. Além desses danos, a perda de habitações, familiares, amigos e vizinhos,
combinada com a destruição da infraestrutura, bem como a ruptura da ordem social, resultam em um
processo de exposição continuada e os problemas de saúde mental emergem nestes eventos
catastróficos. Pode haver ainda, situações que o atendimento aos feridos e o recolhimento dos corpos
facilmente excedam a capacidade operativa, de materiais ou de pessoal, constituindo assim uma
situação crítica dentro do desastre. A recuperação de corpos pode ser difícil e desorganizada, mas
deve ocorrer rapidamente. Esta atividade não deve interromper a execução dos trabalhos que visam
ajudar os sobreviventes, mas é uma fase importante para a identificação dos mortos e a redução da
carga psicológica dos sobreviventes e o surgimento de doenças. Considerações finais: Fica evidente
que o atendimento após um desastre natural é o de buscar uma resposta rápida, atender o maior
número de pessoas, evitando a o desperdício de tempo, incluindo planejamento adequado para
organizar doações que são recebidas e, principalmente, atuar dentro de um orçamento limitado.

12-16 May 2014
A FORÇA NACIONAL DO SUS COMO FERRAMENTA DE PROMOÇÃO, CONTROLE E

CONTENÇÃO DE RISCOS E AGRAVOS À SAÚDE PÚBLICA
Silvio Queiroz (1) *; Simone Andrade (1); Karla Ribeiro (1); Maria Lemes (1); Maria Nascimento
(1)
Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Goiás, Goiânia/Goiás, Brazil (1)
Abstract
Introdução: Os desastres naturais constituem um tema recente no cotidiano das pessoas,
independentemente destes se localizarem ou não em áreas de risco e são responsáveis por grandes
danos e perdas, de caráter social, econômico e ambiental. Os registros internacionais mostram que, a
partir da segunda metade do século XX, houve aumento significativo na frequência e intensidade de
desastres naturais. Dados comprovam que a média anual saltou de 50 para 250 a partir da década de
80 em todo o mundo. No Brasil, o furacão Catarina atingiu os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio
Grande do Sul em com prejuízos socioeconômicos que ultrapassaram o valor de R$ 100 milhões. Já
no ano de 2007 em Sumidouro e em Nova Friburgo, houveram enchentes e deslizamentos que
atingiram áreas rurais e urbanas, comunidades de baixo e de alto poder aquisitivo, algumas ficando
totalmente isoladas, destruindo prédios e habitações, infraestrutura. Com o ambiente alterado, há um
considerável aumento na quantidade de vetores, assim como aumento da contaminação fecal por
parasitas e helmintos. As principais dificuldades encontradas no atendimento aos desastres são:
planejamento, formação de equipes, dimensionamento de insumos e equipamentos e inter-relações
com governos. Objetivos: Caracterizar a Força Nacional do SUS como ferramenta de promoção,
controle e contenção de riscos e agravos à saúde pública. Método: Trata-se de um estudo de revisão
bibliográfica. Foram utilizados artigos em português publicados nas seguintes bases de dados
virtuais: DESASTRES, Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde e revista
eletrônica Cientific Eletronic Library Online , no período de 2003 a 2013. Resultados: O Governo
Brasileiro através do Decreto nº 7.616, de 17 de novembro de 2011, dispôs sobre a declaração de
Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional (ESPIN) e instituiu a Força Nacional do
Sistema Único de Saúde, regulamentada pela Portaria Nº 2.952, de 14 de dezembro de 2011. A
ESPIN é declarada por ato do Ministro de Estado da Saúde em situações que demandem e o emprego
urgente de prevenção, controle e contenções de riscos, danos e agravos à saúde pública como
situações epidemiológicas, situações de desastres e situações de desassistência à população. Havendo
a necessidade será acionada a FN-SUS, que utilizará um dos quatro níveis de respostas: Nível de
Resposta I, II, III e IV.Considerações finais: Fica evidente que a Força Nacional do SUS busca
resposta rápida, visando atender o maior número de pessoas e evitando o desperdício de tempo.

12-16 May 2014
MISSÃO DA FORÇA NACIONAL DO SISTEMA ÚNICO DE SAÚDE NA ELABORAÇÃO

DE DIAGNÓSTICO EPIDEMIOLÓGICO
Silvio Queiroz (1) *; Simone Andrade (1); Maria Costa (1); Adauto Neto (1)
Abstract
O Relato é uma Experiência Profissional vivida nas Aldeias Indígenas do Amazonas como integrante
da primeira missão da Força Nacional do SUS na investigação epidemiológica de um surto de
diarréia aguda que atingiu as populações das Etnia Indígena Kanamari e Kulina no Município de
Eirunepé no interior do Estado do Amazonas localizado a 1.160 km ao sudoeste da capital. A partir
das informações obtidas pelo Ministério da Saúde através das autoridades municipais de saúde, foi
declarada uma situação de Emergência em Saúde Pública de Importância Nacional, o que demandou
o emprego urgente de medidas de prevenção, controle e contenção de riscos, danos e agravos à saúde
pública como surtos e epidemias que apresentem risco de disseminação nacional. A partir de então,
foi elaborado um plano para o deslocamento das equipes as aldeias para atender e tratar os casos
mais graves, realizando o inquérito de Doença Diarréica Aguda, aprofundou a investigação nos
óbitos ocorridos e coletou amostras biológicas para a identificação do agente etiológico e amostras
de água para exame bacteriológico e físico-químico. O grupo foi dividido em equipes, ficando uma
parte na Casa de Apoio a Saúde Indígena e outra no hospital local, visto a desassistência vivenciada
pela equipe na analise situacional da rede de atenção à saúde local, obtendo assim qualidade no
atendimento aos casos mais críticos e realizando a revisão de prontuários institucionais referentes aos
óbitos ocorridos entre dezembro e janeiro. Outra parte da equipe seguiu em visita nas Aldeias onde
ocorreram os casos e óbitos por diarréia. A investigação teve o objetivo de levantar os casos de
diarreia na população indígena através de dados adquiridos pelos técnicos da Secretária Especial de
Saúde Indígena e inquérito realizado por técnicos do Ministério da Saúde, médicos e enfermeiros do
Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência que estiveram nas aldeias ao longo do Rio Itucumã e
Eirú. Além da população indígena, foi realizado um levantamento dos casos de diarréia no município
geral no período de dezembro de 2011 a janeiro de 2012 com 10 testes rápidos para Rotavirus
realizados, sendo que destes, 6 foram positivos. Por fim, a falta de saneamento básico e as péssimas
condições de saúde configuraram como meios para o desenvolvimento de surtos diarreicos.

12-16 May 2014
MISSÃO DE AJUDA HUMANITÁRIA ÀS VÍTIMAS DA ENCHENTE DO VALE DO

ITAJAÍ - SC EM 2008
Silvio Queiroz (1) *; Mônica Andrade (1); Maria Costa (1); Maria Lemes (1)
Abstract
O Relato é uma Experiência Profissional vivida na prestação de ajuda humanitária pós enchente de
2008 no Vale do Itajaí-SC pelos membros da Liga de Emergências Clínicas e Traumáticas do Curso
de Enfermagem da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Goiás, coordenada por professores do curso,
que tem como alicerce o Ensino, a Pesquisa e a Extensão. As enchentes em Santa Catarina ocorreram
depois do período de grandes chuvas durante o mês de novembro de 2008, afetando em torno de
sessenta cidades e mais de 1,5 milhões de pessoas no Estado. Um total de 135 pessoas morreram e
mais 5.617 vítimas ficaram desabrigados. O Vale do Itajaí apresenta condição favorável à ocorrência
de intensas precipitações, concentradas principalmente na primavera e verão, por estar subordinado à
condição climática quente e úmida. A mobilização dos membros da Liga partiram dos professores
coordenadores, após tomar conhecimento da amplitude da Catástrofe via impressa falada e escrita. A
partir de então, foi realizada uma reunião emergêncial no início do mês de dezembro, onde todos os
componentes concordaram na prestação de ajuda os desabrigados. Feitos contatos com Reitoria e
União Nacional dos Estudantes, os quais se prontificaram a contribuir no deslocamento da equipe.
Posteriormente, com a ajuda da União Nacional dos Estudantes, houve a sensibilidade por parte da
Presidência da República, q qual determinou que a Força Aérea Brasileira fizesse o nosso
deslocamento até Itajaí. No dia 10 de dezembro a equipe com um professor e 16 acadêmicos
embarcou no Aeroporto de Goiânia com destinho a Navegantes-SC e de Navegantes a Itajaí, o
traslado foi realizado via terrestre e coordenado pelas equipes do Exército Brasileiro. O grupo foi
dividido em duas equipes, ficando parte no ginásio de esportes para separação, organização e ajuda
na distribuição dos donativos, que incluia desde água, leite, alimentos e roupas outra revezando
plantões no hospital municipal, na tentativa de melhorar o o atendimento a população e suprrindo a
ausência de alguns profissionais que naquele momento estavam impedidos de comparecer aos
plantões. Em determinados dias as duas equipes visitavam os abrigos com o objetivo de promover
educação em saúde.Por fim, a falta de saneamento básico e as péssimas condições de saúde
configuraram como meios para o desenvolvimento de surtos diarreicos.

12-16 May 2014
SOCIAL HOUSING AND THE HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF CLIMATE ACTION
Guy Barnett (1) *; Dong Chen (2); Stephen McFallan (3)

CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra, ACT, Australia (1)
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (2)
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (3)
contact: guy.barnett@csiro.au
Abstract
The health co-benefits of climate action are widely recognised by health professionals, yet remain
little known and appreciated in other sectors of society. One reason is that health impacts are difficult
to quantify and therefore hard for policy and decision makers to include in their considerations. In
this presentation, we introduce the findings of a recent project undertaken in Australia, where
researchers worked in partnership with two organisations responsible for 35% of Australia's social
housing. The aim of the project was to scope the vulnerability of social housing assets and their
tenants to more frequent and severe heat events, identifying opportunities to not only reduce risk, but
deliver co-benefits for health.The project was implemented via a multi-scale study design, with a
focus on people and the housing they live in, as well as the broader influence of neighbourhood
context. The dynamic building simulation software AccuRate was used to assess thermal
performance and indoor environment of common social housing types. Simulations were conducted
for current and future climates, across seven major climate zones in Australia. Changes in heating
and cooling energy requirements were calculated, as was a common measure of heat-related health
risk known as the Discomfort Index. A vulnerability assessment was prepared to compare and
contrast the performance of 103,809 social housing assets.We found the energy required for cooling
a typical single-detached house could grow by 75-115% in Melbourne and 95-359% in Brisbane, by
2070. Housing located in climate zones with hot humid summers were most vulnerable to climate
change. In these areas, housing retrofits (e.g. glazing, insulation, etc) were not sufficient to mitigate
heat-related health risk, with air-conditioning increasingly required to maintain a safe indoor thermal
environment. Retrofits were more effective in temperate locations, largely mitigating the potential
impact of climate change in the short term. Housing retrofits not only have an important role in
reducing the energy required for residential cooling, but also provide critical co-benefits for human
health and opportunities to achieve ‘win-win' outcomes.

12-16 May 2014
LOW-CARBON TOURISM AS A STRATEGIC TOOL FOR SUSTAINABLE

MANAGEMENT OF THE ACCOMMODATIONS IN THE CITY OF PARNAÍBA, PIAUÍ.
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Rodrigo de Sousa Melo (1) *; Ticiana Machado dos Santos (1); Ruceline Paiva Melo Lins (1)
Federal University of Piauí, Parnaíba, PI, Brazil (1)
contact: rodrigomelo@ufpi.edu.br
Abstract
Tourism is the victim and at the same time one of the vectors of climate change, since the
relationship between tourism and climate is narrow, and carbon emissions from the various tourism
segments have grown substantially. Thus, it is necessary to rethink the current model of tourism
development, with the introduction of new arrangements theoretical and methodological able to
change the current course of environmental change. In this context, there is the low-carbon tourism,
as a subset of low-carbon development, whose goal is to propose modifications to the production and
consumption of space tourism, by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the use of sustainable
technologies in tourism. This study examined the low-carbon tourism as a strategic tool for
sustainable management of the accommodations in the city of Parnaíba, Piauí, by estimating carbon
dioxide emissions. Data collection occurred with structured interviews with 5 (five) managers of
local hotels using analytical variables as energy consumption, fuel for traveling on land, and gas. The
results showed that the total emissions accounted for approximately 161.16 tons of carbon (tCO2)
annually, with the primary vector of energy consumption, which accounted for 86% of emissions.
Thus, the low-carbon tourism can be a strategic tool for sustainable management of
accommodations, since the managers are aware of the need to use clean technologies, and
encouraging the reduction of emissions from employees and guests, through educational and
managerial actions.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON NATURE BASED TOURISM IN HIMALAYA:

ADAPTATION THROUGH MULTI-STAKEHOLDERS GOVERNANCE
Bhagwati Joshi (1) *; Prakash Chandra Tiwari (2)

Government Post Graduate College, Rudrapur, Uttarakhand, India (1)
Kumaun University, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India (2)
contact: bhawanatiwari@yahoo.com
Abstract
Himalaya presents endless scope for promotion of tourism and its integration with environmental
conservation and socio-economic development. As a result, tourism was identified as a promising
adaptation strategy providing alternative sustainable livelihood options to mountain people in
remote and rural areas where traditional livelihoods are under severe threat due to resource depletion
and land use intensifications. However, climate change has stressed nature based tourism in
Himalaya through rise in temperature and altered precipitation pattern and resultant increased
frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. Study aimed at monitoring trends of
extreme weather events and assessing their impacts on tourism sector with case illustration of
Uttarakhand Himalaya. Methodology included: (i) meteorological observation of extreme weather
events including high intensity rainfall, flash-floods and landslides, and (ii) analysis of their impacts
on tourism infrastructure and destinations, tourist-arrivals and community livelihood through field
mapping and socio-economic surveys.Results indicated: (i) frequency of high intensity rainfall
increased (15%) accelerating flash- floods (17%), landslides (21%) and debris flow (25%) during last
30 years; (ii) 235 km road-length and 1125 tourist accommodations were completely damaged; (iii)
tourism arrival declined by 11%, (iv) more than 15125 poor and marginalized people lost their
livelihood, and (v) local economy suffered a loos 31%. Although direct as well indirect impacts of
climate change on tourism across Himalaya would vary widely according to geographical location,
tourist-settings, infrastructure and tourist-seasons, yet keeping in view inaccessibility, fragility,
marginality, diversity and niche climate change may bring considerable uncertainties in tourism
economy in the region. However, tourism being less resource and more labour intensive, non-
consumptive and environmentally conducive is likely to emerge as one of the most effective climate
change adaptation strategy in Himalaya. It should be based on multi-stakeholders governance with
considerations for institutional development, diversification of opportunities, equity and sustainable
economic growth.

12-16 May 2014
COMPETING VISIONS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION: EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FROM CARIBBEAN COASTAL
TOURISM
Roché Mahon (1) *; Hamish Rennie (1); Gary Steel (1)

Lincoln University, Christchurch, New Zealand (1)
contact: roche.mahon@lincolnuni.ac.nz
Abstract
In the field of tourism, extensive pioneering research (Drabek, 1994a, 1994b, 1995a, 1995b, 1996,
1999) has shown a large gap between the perceptions of tourism managers and those of tourists
regarding disaster planning at hotels. The present study expands on Drabek's research by
hypothesizing that there is a similarly large gap regarding climate change adaptation planning
(CCA). It is further hypothesized that views on adaptation strategies underpin at least part of this
difference, primarily because these need to be palatable to both supply-side stakeholders and their
market. Yet, little research has been conducted to explore these possible differences. This research
focuses on a specific operating context - Caribbean coastal tourism - and asks whether there is a gap
in demand and supply-side disaster risk management (DRM) and CCA planning expectations.
Quantitative analysis of survey data from 124 hoteliers, 39 policymakers and 320 tourists in 10
English-speaking Caribbean destinations reveals that statistically significant differences in DRM and
CCA planning perceptions exist across the three groups. A holistic analysis of this perception gap, its
underlying drivers and the implications for present and future destination management is presented.
This type of information can serve as input to the policy-making process and provide critical
decision support for managing the risks of disasters to advance climate change adaptation in the
mainstay tourism sector of Small Island Developing States.

12-16 May 2014
CHALLENGES OF COMMUNITY TOURISM TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGES:

PERSPECTIVES ON JERICOACOARA (NE BRAZIL)
Paulo Sousa (1) *; Luzia Neide Coriolano (2)

Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil (1)
Universidade Estadual do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil (2)
contact: sousaph@gmail.com
Abstract
Jericoacoara, also known as "Jeri", is a city located far 287 km from Fortaleza in the north of Ceará
State, Brazil. This work is an initial approach to comprehend how small communities can cope and
adapt to climate changes. This work aims at understanding how traditional communities are coping
with conventional tourism and environmental problems, as well as identifying their challenges face
to climate change. Methods consist of historic review of tourism and conflicts between local
residents, tourists and real estate speculation, and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques
to identify areas with environmental problems. Those areas were considered most vulnerable to sea-
level rise (SLR). Tourism in Jericoacoara has been started in early 1980's by backpackers attracted
by the friendly local fishermen community, its lifestyle, cuisine, etc. In the same decade, local
politicians promoted Jericoacoara as tourist destination in the media generating interests that
intensified occupation processes and, consequently, real estate-speculation. Jericoacoara's
Environmental Protection Area (EPA) was created in order to preserve natural resources of the
region. Later in the 1990's, government investments, focused on improving the access to Ceará's
littoral, attracted many tourists and investors, intensifying real-estate speculation and foreigner
capital to Jericoacoara. Over time, occupation and conventional tourism grow and new conflicts of
interests arise. Local people, whose professional skills are not specialized enough to meet
conventional tourism industry demands, move to peripheral areas and struggle to maintain their way
of life and sea-culture based on fishery and handicraft. GIS analysis showed strong coastal dynamic
in the west coast with presence of sandbars, no dry beach in the high tides (indicating coastal
erosion) and increase of occupation. Coastal engineering structures were implanted in the west to
protect urban infrastructure from wave attack. The beach stretch in the west is highly vulnerable to
SLR and concentrates the urban settlement. Although there is a residents association to organize
those who were expropriated of the place by conventional tourism, the conflicts are intense. There is
no long term planning do cope with climate changes. Those traditional communities are unprotected
and concerned to current pressures. Actions that involve environmental education, focusing on the
importance of social organization are strongly indicated. Such actions must consider ideas and
policies that are innovative and feasible, so that traditional communities are able to strengthen
community tourism and reduce the pressure caused by conventional tourism.

12-16 May 2014
PREPARING NATURE BASED SEASONAL ACTIVITIES IN QUEBEC (CANADA) TO

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION.
Stéphanie Bleau (1) *

School of Management, Transat Chair in Tourism, University of Quebec in Montreal, Quebec, Canada (1)
Ouranos, Montreal, Canada (2)
contact: stefanie_bleau@hotmail.com
Abstract
Knowledge of socio-economic implications induced by climate change (CC) on nature based and
recreation tourism (e.g. alpine and cross country skiing, golf, snowmobiling and nature parks) at a
local and regional level is still very limited. In an initial research effort, a trans-disciplinary approach
was used to create a framework to develop adaptation responses relevant to important tourism
regions such as the Laurentian and the Eastern Townships. Participatory action research process
(PAR) through social analysis tools and techniques (SAS2) have led to better comprehension of
perceived changes and business realities, recognition of climate risks and identification of actions to
manage CC related risk. This process established an environment for dialog, transparency and
progressive awareness about spatial and temporal repercussions for sub-sectors and regions.
Consequently, growing concerns relate to the need to plan adaptation solutions by combining them to
other significant business challenges. Interests now focus on feasible adaptation responses to the
current effects and projected climate, along with its interrelated socio-economic risks. Today, more
than 300 tourism stakeholders have been implicated in this process. The aim here is to outline a more
personalized approach by encouraging business driven solutions, in such a manner that it can be used
as a model to other tourism regions in the province of Quebec. Furthermore, potential adaptation
options have been proposed and regional measures have been implemented. In the context of
economic growth and sustainability, a first draft of the tourism research program is in the works to
better prepare Quebec's industry and focusses on advancing knowledge, education and capacity
building through collaborative work with the industry.

12-16 May 2014
RESILIENCE, THE OPTIMIZATION PARADOX AND GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE:

ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION LESSONS FROM THE LAND OF DROUGHT AND
FLOODING RAINS
Alexei Trundle (1) *; Darryn McEvoy (1)

RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia (1)
contact: alexei.trundle@rmit.edu.au
Abstract
Melbourne, Australia is often described as having ‘four seasons in one day' - a fitting motto for the
second largest city in a country defined by some of the world's most wide-ranging climatic
conditions and variable extreme weather events. However for almost all of the first decade of the
21st century the climate of Melbourne and its surrounds (as well as much of the South East region of
Australia) was instead characterized by consistently below average rainfall, reduced catchment
inflow and drought.Although reductions in potable water use during this period are attributed as
having prevented a complete failure of water supply (which fell below 30% in 2009), the behaviour-
change programs, local government initiatives and state government infrastructure investments have
also had other long-lasting impacts on the wider urban system. Initially upheld as successful
examples of climate adaptation, subsequent consideration of the side-effects of these actions - such
as the replacement of permeable and green spaces by artificial surfaces and the severe decline and
loss of street trees - has led to a reconsideration of their implications for climate resilience; defined
here as the capacity to cope with multiple climate stressors and thresholds. The need for a system-
wide understanding of adaptation was highlighted in 2009 when a heatwave - amplified considerably
by the city's urban heat island effect (a product of hard surfaces and reduced evapotranspiration) -
contributed to the deaths of 374 citizens.This presentation will examine the interface between the
complex, variable and inter-related effects of climate change and the equally multi-facetted, co-
beneficial implementation of urban Green Infrastructure. Building on findings from a recently-
completed multi-institutional, interdisciplinary assessment of the potential for application of this
ecosystem-based adaptation approach in Melbourne, three arguments will be put forward. Firstly,
that in order to avoid the ‘optimization paradox' evident in the recent south-east Australian
experience, a system-wide approach to urban adaptation and development - encompassing multiple
thresholds and stressors - is necessary. Secondly, in doing so, adaptation options whose benefits,
spatial applicability and governance are equally complex emerge as being central to enhancing urban
resilience. Finally, the reduction of Green Infrastructure in Melbourne during a period of increasing
application across Europe, North America and parts of Asia demonstrates the crucial role of the
availability, variability and applicability of water in the application and management of ecosystem
based adaptation strategies in our cities.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION FOR POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE CITY OF

RECIFE, BRAZIL
LUIZ PRIORI (1) *; MARCELO HAZIN (1)

FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PERNAMBUCO, RECIFE, PERNAMBUCO, Brazil (1)
contact: luizpriori@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper presents a study which supports adaptations to the possible impacts of climate change in
the city of Recife, which is the capital city of the Brazilian state of Pernambuco, which is located on
the northeast coast of the country. According to the 2010 Census, conducted by IBGE - Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2010) - the city of Recife has a population of 1,536,934
inhabitants, distributed over 94 neighborhoods. Among the phenomena related to possible global
climate change, this study considered those that may occur in the coastal cities of Northeast Brazil,
such as: rising temperatures, heavy rainfall and rising sea levels, and their effects on the urban
environment. Adaptation capacity is approached here as a dynamic phenomenon - as a process rather
than something static – which can be described as a retrospective and prospective attribute. As a
retrospective attribute, adaptation can be seen as the ability to cope during times of stress or shock.
As a prospective attribute, the adjustment cannot contribute as relief to an impact which has not yet
occurred, and instead it becomes visible through components identified theoretically associated with
the adaptive process. The analysis of urban infrastructure adaptation to climate change focused on
four indicative issues: what to adapt to? Who or what adapts? How does adaptation happen? What
are the limits to adaptation? The research method applied was a case study through direct
observation in an attempt to identify vulnerabilities in the infrastructure of the neighborhoods in
Recife. The problem of vulnerability in the urban infrastructure of Recife was based on Value Focus
Thinking, a methodology that seeks a better definition of the objectives and problem constraints, and
which contribute to a more consistent decision making process. This exploratory research showed
that many of the vulnerabilities found in the infrastructure of the areas studied are similar, despite the
fact that the study focused on neighborhoods with very different income patterns and property sales’
values. It was concluded that climate change impacts can increase vulnerability and highlights the
need to develop adaptation capacity to reduce the risk of disasters in urban populations. Cities
contribute to climate change and, at the same time, are more vulnerable to its impact as a result of
their complex nature, which might be aggravated by the conditions of urban infrastructure and the
concentration of poor residents in high risk areas.

12-16 May 2014
RECONCILING DEVELOPMENT AND CONSERVATION UNDER COASTAL SQUEEZE

FROM RISING SEA-LEVEL
Morena Mills (1) *; Megan Saunders (1); Javier Leon (1); Justine Bell (1,2); Yan Liu (4); Julian
O'Mara (5); Catherine Lovelock (3); Peter Mumby (3); Stuart Phinn (4); Hugh Possingham (3,6); 0;
Konar Mutafoglu (1); Tiffany Morrison (4);
Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (1)
TC Beirne School of Law, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (2)
School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (3)
School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (4)
South East Queensland Catchments, 183 North Quay,, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (5)
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Berkshire, UK (6)
contact: morena.mills@uq.edu.au
Abstract
Developing robust adaptation strategies to sea–level rise (SLR) poses a serious challenge to policy
makers and managers. SLR will increase the risk of permanent flooding of low-lying coastal land,
resulting in the forced migration of up to 1.87 million people this century3. Furthermore, SLR will
change the distribution of vulnerable coastal ecosystems and their provision of ecosystem goods and
services. Although progress has been made in developing SLR adaptation policies, assessments
rarely include an integrated social-ecological approach with considerations of multiple adaptation
strategies. Furthermore, there are few examples of how this can be applied in practice. Here, we
apply models of urban growth, SLR innundation, and ecosystem migration within a systematic
planning framework to investigate the impacts of different SLR adaptation strategies at a local scale.
The results presented show that while coastal adaptation will involve trade-offs between and among
development and conservation goals, planners can both minimise conflict between conservation and
development goals and the costs involved in SLR adaptation. Gains of up to 30% of either
conservation and development goals can be made for a given development and conservation benefit,
and billions of dollars can be saved by incorporating models of SLR, urban growth and ecosystem
migration with systematic planning tools in decisions about SLR adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
CLEARING PUDDLES OR EATING GARLIC? PERCEPTIONS OF SUSTAINABLE

COPING STRATEGIES IN INFORMAL URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN ETHIOPIA
Stefano Moncada (1) *

Institute for European Studies - University of Malta, Msida, Malta (1)
contact: stefano.moncada@um.edu.mt
Abstract
This paper identifies local coping strategies to climate variability, and change, and discusses their
sustainability using a case study involving an informal urban settlement in the city of Shashemene,
Ethiopia. It also identifies specific climate threats and key livelihood resources at the local level, to
then classify the factors capable of enhancing long-term local adaptive capacity.Whilst it is widely
accepted that changes in climate will severely affect Least Developed Countries (LDCs), there is still
uncertainty on which specific climate threats are likely to impact vulnerable urban communities in
LDCs, which livelihoods are affected due to climate variability, and change, and the sustainability of
coping strategies being employed at the local level. Adaptive capacity is acknowledged as an
essential policy response to minimise harm, and to enhance long-term development. However,
ambiguity remains as to the determinants of adaptive capacity particularly at the local level and how
to transform short-term unsustainable coping capacity to long-term adaptive capacity.The proposed
framework uses a mixed methodology to be applied at community-level, including both qualitative
Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRAs) methods (using the adaptation tool CRiSTAL), and
quantitative assessment of long-term adaptive capacity (using three waves of panel data generated
from a dedicated survey conducted on 200 households).The findings of this research confirm the
importance of social and family networks to cope with climate hazards, and suggest that the i.
functioning of, and interaction with, local institutions, ii. improved access to credit, iii. effectiveness
of training initiatives, particularly in the field of public health and sanitation, can support the shifts
towards more sustainable coping capacities, thus nurturing effective adaptation strategies.

12-16 May 2014
SOCIAL PARTICIPATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT FOR

IMPLEMENTATION OF PUBLIC POLICIES
Débora Olivato (1) *; Humberto Gallo Junior (2); Magda Lombardo (3)
Departamento de Geografia - FFLCH - USP, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
Instituto Florestal SMA/SP, São Paulo, Brazil (2)
UNESP - Campus Rio Claro, Rio Claro, Brazil (3)
contact: debora.olivato@gmail.com
Abstract
Communities should be able to discuss, learn and teach about environmental risks in order to be
avoided activities or uses that enhance their vulnerability, thus adopting strategies and preventive
actions.The perception of risk varies greatly from individual to individual and dialogical and
transformative educational process grounded in critical environmental education (BRASIL, 1999)
plays a key role in prevention, particularly as they approach local actors and representatives of the
System of Civil Protection and Defense.Action-research (Brandão, 1987, 2005) served as the basis
for this study applied , developed as part of the PhD thesis in the Department of Geography at USP ,
and had one of the activities the community meeting called "Dialoguing about education for the
prevention of environmental risk and disasters in the area of river basin Indaiá - Ubatuba , SP,
Brazil".As the mapping done by the Geological Institute of São Paulo (SÃO PAULO, 2006) and the
study by Souza & Luna (2009), this basin has several areas at risk .A community meeting enabled
the exchange of information/knowledge, and collective production of preventive proposals for the
studied area. Seventy-two people attended this meeting, with the majority living in the five
neighborhoods located in the hydrographical basin area chosen for the study, as well as
representatives of Civil Defence and Education, and the Geological Institute SMA / SP .Proposed
activities followed a line formative dialogue with group work and plenary activity. For the
preventive area, thirty-two proposals were performed, related to the phenomena of flooding,
landslide, coastal erosion and storm. It has been noted in this formative process, the appropriation of
information and important concepts in risk management by the participants, and the development of
feasible proposals ranging from individual actions to those related to urban planning.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS IN TWO PERI-URBAN MUNICIPALITIES OF THE

METROPOLITAN REGION OF SANTIAGO, CHILE.
Camila Pavez (1) *; Jonathan Barton (3,1); Sonia Reyes (2)

Centro de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (1)
Departamento Ecosistemas y Medio Ambiente-DEMA/ Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable- CEDEUS, Pontificia Universidad
Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable- CEDEUS/ Instituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales-IEUT, Pontificia Universidad
contact: ccpavez@uc.cl
Abstract
The local level has gained importance in the context of efforts to address climate change. This trend
is based on the fact that global scale actions are more mitigation-oriented, but the adaptation options
should be designed locally, because two very nearby communities may have very different degrees
of vulnerability in face of climate change impacts. In this paper we analyze the vulnerability against
flood and drought events of two municipalities of the Region of Santiago Chile. The selected
municipalities, Lampa and Calera de Tango, share common features such as location on the outskirts
of the Metropolitan Area of Santiago and a pronounced rural-urban transition status. This research
was conducted in the framework of the IDRC project "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate
Variability and Change of the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile". The methodology combines
participatory mapping with professionals of both two municipalities, measuring of the exposure to
drought and flood, and estimating adaptation capacity, based on information from governmental and
academic sources. The results indicate that these municipalities are undergoing significant changes
linked to urban expansion and population increase. These processes exacerbate the effects of climate
change on these municipalities. Vulnerability of population to extreme weather events increases due
to the shortage of water supply, which is caused by the combination of scarce precipitation, urban
sprawl, and land use changes. In this context, there is an increasing need of incorporating adaptation
strategies to climate change in spatial planning, especially for peri-urban and rural municipalities
affected by metropolitan expansion.

12-16 May 2014
IRRIGATION OF URBAN PARKS: A CHALLENGE FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE

CHANGE IN MEDITERRANEAN CITIES.
Camila Pavez (1) *; Sonia Reyes (2); Jonathan Barton (3,1); Francisca Salinas (1)
Departamento Ecosistemas y Medio Ambiente-DEMA/ Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable- CEDEUS, Pontificia Universidad
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable- CEDEUS/ Instituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales-IEUT, Pontificia Universidad
contact: ccpavez@uc.cl
Abstract
Urban green areas have generated renewed interest in the current scenario of climate change, because
they are acknowledged an important role in increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of cities.
However, in Mediterranean environments it is necessary to provide sufficient irrigation water to
maintain current vegetation cover and this is increasingly a scarce resource. The efficient use of
water is critical to ensure the sustainability of green spaces. In this paper we analyze the water
consumption and irrigation practices in 16 parks in the city of Santiago (Chile), with a total of 151
hectares, predominantly covered by grass and trees. The study was conducted under the IDRC
project "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in the Maipo River Basin in
Central Chile." The methodology combines field observations, interviews and data analysis of water
consumption in the last decade. In Santiago the watering period extends between the months of
September-October until April-May of each year, and is suspended during the rainy season.
Fieldwork was conducted between March and April 2013 at the end of the dry season. The results
show that water consumption are hardly dependent on physical factors, such as vegetation or soil
type, but depend most on administrative decisions and irrigation practices of responsible personnel.
In this sense, it is feasible to implement adaptation measures to climate change because they involve
modifications on behavior and management decisions of green spaces, depending on future scenarios
of temperature and precipitation in the Maipo River Basin.

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSING DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DISRUPTIONS IN TRANSPORT

NETWORKS
Samiul Hasan (1) *; Greg Foliente (1); Xiaoming Wang (1); Yong Bing Khoo (1)
CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (1)
contact: samiul.hasan@csiro.au
Abstract
Major natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones or hurricanes cause huge damages and
losses with potential disruptions in transport networks. Such disruptions have significant impacts on
a region's economy. The impacts of disruptions in transport networks may extend to other regions via
export-import relationships with serious economic consequences. The increasing rates of major
disasters in the last decades and their enormous impacts in our economy have forced us to implement
better risk management and adaptation strategies. However, to develop those strategies we need to
first understand the consequence of those disruptions in regional economy and then be able to
estimate the costs of such disruptions. This paper presents a method to assess the direct economic
impacts to freight and passenger movement due to a major disruption in transport networks within
the context of a regional economy. The method accounts for the interaction between industries using
commodity flow and passenger movement information. However such data are typically available
for aggregate zones posing difficulty to analyse the economic impacts of disruptions at finer spatial
disaggregation. Therefore the method uses an inverse optimization technique to determine the
commodity flow at a finer resolution based on the aggregate commodity flows and available link-
based truck flows. The method then uses a transport network assignment model to determine the
increasing length of shipments due to a disruption. Based on this information the direct economic
impacts of disruptions in transport networks can be obtained. The model developed in this work can
be used as a tool for state or national level strategic planning purposes to assess the risk exposure of
transport infrastructures in a better way and to prioritise among alternative strategies for risk
mitigating and recovery and reconstruction efforts.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION IN A GLOBAL COASTAL CITY. THE CONTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL

COLLABORATION IN SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA: THE STEPS FROM VISION TO
IMPLEMENTATION.
Geoff Withycombe (1) *; Stephen Summerhayes (1)

Sydney Coastal Councils Group Incorporated, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (1)
contact: stephen@sydneycoastalcouncils.com.au
Abstract
Australia's people and assets are concentrated in cities along its ~35,000 km of mainland coast. They
are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects such as changes in sea level and storm intensity
and frequency. The Commonwealth of Australia is a Federation with three tiers of government:
Commonwealth, State and Local. Local government is on the frontline in dealing with climate
change impacts and is therefore well aware of the on-ground needs of local, and broader regional,
communities. However, it requires knowledge and resources from the other two levels of
government to respond to climate change, such as detailed natural hazard and risk information, and
assessment, planning and decision-making tools. In the absence of Commonwealth and State
government leadership and the provision of adequate resources, regional collaborations of local
governments can assist to ensure climate change adaptation objectives are achieved. In Sydney, New
South Wales, a global coastal city, the Sydney Coastal Councils Group Incorporated is the peak
coastal regional organisation of councils. Its membership base of 15 Sydney coastal councils
contributes ~20% of Australia's GDP. The SCCG facilitates interaction, knowledge sharing and
propagation of ideas between its members. Through its research and capacity building programs, it
empowers members to identify, develop and implement initiatives which possess both local and
regional benefits and enhance resilience. It fosters critical thinking and action, promotes efficiencies
of scale and enables change. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group has adopted a similar model
at a global scale. This paper demonstrates the vital role of regional collaboration in urban adaptation,
using Sydney Coastal Councils as a case study. It reviews a successful and scalable model for
collaboration for adaptation, addressing key outcomes in adaptation research, options and decision
making tools, as well as lessons learned of international relevance.

12-16 May 2014
A FRAMEWORK FOR EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR

COASTAL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRALIA
Alianne Rance (1) *

Abstract
With the muting of the climate change debate, there has been a judicious shift toward attenuation of
associated climatic impacts through adaptation. The observation of the wider impacts of changed
weather patterns as well as increasing risks of sea level rise, erosion, and storm surge, has motivated
much action on the part of local government in coastal Australia. However, property developers
driven through regulation or lack thereof, have been less energetic in this sphere. The relationship
between State and Local government tiers and property developers, especially in the minefield that is
coastal Greenfield development, has been tenuous at best. In the light of climate change impacts and
associated movement in policy arenas, tension is set to rise.New legislation or even broad
governance to clarify approaches for adaptation planning is pending and end users may be legally
required or encouraged to utilize a particular approach in conducting their adaptation planning
process. Further, industry standards, market drivers and periphery stakeholders including the legal,
insurance and financial sectors, could drive the consideration of climate risk in new development.
Standardisation for such approaches has yet to be defined with the determination of ‘what is good
adaptation’ lacking. However, the interaction between property developers, State and Local
government in the context of coastal property development Nationally must first be explored.This
research investigates the principles for ‘good adaptation’ in the context coastal property
development, associated monitoring and evaluation processes and proposes to encompass these
within a framework applicable to property developers, State and Local government in coastal
Australia.

12-16 May 2014
THERMAL COMFORT IN RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS FOR THE ELDERLY UNDER

CLIMATE CHANGES CONTEXT
Carolina Alves (1) *; Denise Duarte (1); Fábio Gonçalves (1)

University of São Paulo, São Paulo/SP, Brazil (1)
contact: carolina.alves@gmail.com
Abstract
The subject of this research is the thermal performance of residential buildings in the city of São
Paulo, in the current and future climate scenarios, taking into consideration the projected climate
change for the coming decades (following the scenarios of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report -
IPCC AR4) and the greater vulnerability of elderly people related to environmental conditions. The
objective is the evaluation of thermal performance of residential buildings in future climate scenarios
as well as the proposition of design solutions aiming thermal comfort conditions for the elderly. For
the empirical data, measurements of environmental variables were carried out during summer and
winter seasons (air temperature, air humidity, globe temperature and air velocity) within the
residential buildings considered in this project. Thermal performance simulations on an hourly
annual basis were carried out for the current climate conditions and the future climate scenarios
using the Bentley TAS model, available at FAUUSP for academic purposes. Finally, design
recommendations are proposed for urban setttlements (height and massing), building typologies,
thermal and physical properties of materials and building components that respond to adaptation and
mitigation to climate change.This work is part of a broader project "Human biometeorology: analysis
of the environmental variables (meteorological, thermal comfort and air pollution) and climate
change on geriatric population of São Paulo city", coordinated by IAGUSP, sponsored by FAPESP
and will be supported by data from other ongoing studies within the research project.

12-16 May 2014
WHAT RESILIENCE MEANS IN THE CONTEXT OF A CHANGING CLIMATE: A

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE
Katherine Indvik (1,2) *; Paulina Aldunce (1,3); Roxana Borquez (1); Carolina Adler (4); Victor
Galaz (5)
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile (1)
Magíster en Gestión y Planificación Ambiental, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile (3)
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (4)
Stockholm Resilience Center, University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden (5)
contact: katy.indvik@dgf.uchile.cl
Abstract
The concept of resilience in the context of climate change has rapidly gained ground within scientific
literature across a wide array of disciplines. Yet along with this growing presence has come a
discussion of the ambiguity of resilience definitions and conceptualizations. This ambiguity has the
potential to confuse researchers and practitioners, and may therefore compromise the effectiveness of
political and institutional initiatives responding to a changing climate. A clear understanding of the
definitions and features of ‘resilience' is necessary to support scientific investigation and for the
effective interpretation and application of the results of such investigation. The aim of this study is to
analyze the broad range of existing definitions of the concept, stemming from epistemologies derived
from multiple disciplinary approaches, in order to clarify the term´s use and identify the conceptual
bases of resilience theory and the key determinants of resilience that can be used as a practical guide
for resilience building.A systematic literature review was performed for all articles and reviews
published from 2000 to 2012 and returned by a SciVerse Scopus© search for the terms ‘resilience'
and ‘climate change'. Search results illustrate the explosion of the use of the term in published
literature over recent years. Definitions of resilience observed in reviewed papers were labeled as:
social, ecological, social-ecological and structural/physical resilience; the majority of definitions
refer to social or social-ecological resilience. Results demonstrate that over 90% of definitions
describe resilience as an ability or capacity, most commonly to absorb, adapt, recover, or maintain.
Varying definitions influence the application of resilience in real-world settings; we propose a
definition of resilience to be used specifically in the context of climate change. The most commonly
observed theoretical assumptions of resilience theory are related to ideas of disturbance; systems and
their complexities and interactions; uncertainty; and the importance of considerations of scale (both
spatial and temporal).We propose guiding principles for resilience assessments in the form of a
´Resilience Wheel´ and based on key determinants for resilience building emerging from reviewed
literature, the attributes of each of these determinants, and existing and potential indicators of these
attributes. Resilience as a concept influences the way scientists frame and investigate the issue of
climate change and, in turn, the way practitioners acquire and utilize knowledge to plan for the
future. This study represents an important contribution to resilience conceptualization and ´framing´
within the context of climate change.

12-16 May 2014
BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF

RIO DE JANEIRO: COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE FOR ECOSYSTEM-BASED
ADAPTATION
Fabio Scarano (1,2) *; Andrea Santos (3); Walfredo Schindler (3); Luiz Paulo Pinto (1); Carlos
Alberto Mesquita (1); Israel Klabin (3)
Conservation International, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil (2)
Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Rio de Janeiro/RJ, Brazil (3)
contact: fscarano@conservation.org
Abstract
The metropolitan region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, comprises 19 municipalities in
addition to the main city of Rio de Janeiro. The population of the metropolitan region is 11.8 million
inhabitants and this region responds for 71% of the GDP of the state. The city of Rio alone has 6.3
million inhabitants, 50% of the GDP of the state and 70.7% of its territory is urbanized. Interestingly,
despite this high rate of urbanization, Rio remains as one of the greenest metropolis on the planet.
Sixteen percent of the territory of the metropolitan region is within protected areas and, as a result,
the municipality of Rio de Janeiro is classified as having low vulnerability to anthropogenic pressure
and has the largest joint occurrence of endemic and rare species of all municipalities within the state
of Rio. Moreover, in 2012 the southern zone of the city of Rio that includes the Tijuca Forest
National Park (one of the largest urban parks of the planet) and the Guanabara Bay have been
recognized as World Heritage by UNESCO. In this paper we will argue that Rio has a unique
opportunity to showcase sustainable initiatives and to be a model on effective management of
biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) and therefore adapt and build resilience to climate
change. Opportunities include (a) the availability of governance tools favorable to an adequate BES
management, (b) the existence of long-term, successful initiatives that can be replicated, and (c)
upcoming major sports events and consequent flow of investments. Negative points to be tackled
include a) pollution of lakes, rivers, bays and some coastal beaches; b) major tree deficit in urban
arborization; c) local development planning often does not integrate social, economic and
environmental components of sustainability; and d) some protected areas are affected by misuse or
degradation. Finally, based on the balance of pros and cons, we argue that investments on ecosystem-
based adaptation initiatives in Rio’s metropolitan area might increase climate change resilience while
simultaneously reducing poverty and protecting nature.

12-16 May 2014
THE ROLE OF NATIONAL MOVEMENT OF WASTE PICKERS AND THE NATIONAL

POLICY OF SOLID WASTE
Anahi Chimini Sobral (1) *; Victor Fernandez Nascimento (2)

Cemaden, Cachoeira Paulista/SP, Brazil (1)
INPE-CCST, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (2)
contact: victor.nascimento@inpe.br
Abstract
Modern societies have many environmental challenges, mainly in regarding to urban solid waste
management (SIQUEIRA; MORAES, 2009). Because of these confrontations and as way to generate
targets for different frameworks, programs, projects and actions was approved in 2010 the National
Policy of Solid Waste (NPSW) (Law 12.305), which sets out principles, goals, instruments and
guidelines related to integrated solid waste management to producers, government, public policies
and economic instruments responsibilities (BRAZIL, 2010). For this reason, this work aims to
understand the role of the National Movement of Waste Pickers (NMWP) as a tool to enable the
NPSW. Waste pickers are integrated in the Brazilian urban area for over 50 years, but only in recent
years they are gaining visibility, especially for * possible sustainable solutions to chronic social and
environmental problems of Brazilian cities, such as jobs and income generation with low investment
and waste recycling (ALENCAR, 2007). Based on the popular direct action and organizing
cooperatives and associations, NMWP was founded in 2001 and aims to contribute to building just
and sustainable societies through social and productive organization of waste pickers and their
families, guided by self-management, direct action, class independence, class solidarity, direct
democracy and mutual support principles (NMWP, 2013). After its formation, "Pró-Catador"
program and NPSW creation (in 2010) and Federal Government adherence through the
Interministerial Committee for the Support of Social Inclusion of Recyclers (in 2011), who
determined that the ministries should include recyclers in their programs and activities. The activity
of recyclables scavenging, once considered residual, becomes an activity that is growing every day,
exposing the problems of income concentration process (ALENCAR, 2007). Thereafter, the activity
of scavenging points out ways for the social inclusion of waste pickers, economic sustainability of its
operations and designing effective public policy for this category by inducing measures in the form
of laws, decrees and normative instructions for fostering scavenging activity and these achievements
were made possible from the moment in which waste pickers were organized and constituted as
social agents. Thus, the work and organization of collectors correspond to the goals of being an
instrument to enable NPSW, pointing to a new model of development for cities and societies
(CARTA DE CAXIAS DO SUL, 2003).

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE INDEX FOR PRIVATE INVESTMENT
David Greenall (1) *; Jean-Christophe Amado (1); Vladimir Stenek (2)

Deloitte LLP, Ottawa, Canada (1)
International Finance Corporation, Washington, USA (2)
contact: dgreenall@deloitte.ca
Abstract
Promotion of inclusive private investment in climate change resilience requires an understanding of
existing barriers and drivers, and of necessary policy, institutional and information/data conditions
and incentives. A Climate Change Resilience Index for private investment has the potential to
improve visibility about where cost-effective private investment is needed and what country
improvements would likely increase financing flows for adaptation. This session will focus on recent
work conducted by Deloitte LLP and the International Finance Corporation Climate Change
Business Unit to develop a framework for a Climate Change Resilience Index.Several climate
change impact and adaptation indices exist. Most provide information about country biophysical or
socio-economic vulnerability, with the exception of the Global Adaptation Institute's Gain Index
which evaluates a country's vulnerability to climate change and socio-political readiness to adapt.
None of the existing indices advise the private sector and governments on (1) where conditions for
investment are favorable and (2) what specific improvements can enhance a country's environment
for attracting private investment in climate adaptation. An index measuring a country's readiness and
attractiveness for private investment in climate adaptation (‘Index') would create more visibility on
where and what to invest in so as to increase private investment flows towards climate adaptation.
Among the possible outcomes of this Index would be:Improved transparency - by providing factual
information about existing country conditions to attract private investment in climate adaptation;
Level playing field - by clarifying what country conditions are required to promote climate
adaptation in the private sector and where it is cost-effective to improve such
conditions;Identification of weak spots and opportunities for country reform - by identifying areas
where a country needs to improve to successfully attract private investment in climate adaptation and
benchmarking country performance; andBetter targeting of external assistance - by providing a
reliable source of information for aid agencies to inform aid allocation and financing flows between
countries. This could be a joint session with representatives of the IFC Climate Change Business
Unit (funder of the project to develop the Index framework).

12-16 May 2014
PERSPECTIVAS DAS POLÍTICAS DE CONVIVÊNCIA COM O SEMIÁRIDO NO

MUNICÍPIO DE PÃO DE AÇÚCAR - ALAGOAS DECISION: POSTER
Ramon Carvalho (1) *; Josefa Pinto (1)

Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão / Sergipe, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristovão / Sergipe, Brazil (2)
contact: ramondabarra18@hotmail.com
Abstract
Em localidades nordestinas brasileiras, as chuvas se constituem em regulador econômico, com as
estações do ano distinguidas pelo ciclo sazonal da pluviometria, evidenciando dois períodos
distintos: o seco e o úmido. E não há regularidade definida para sua ocorrência. Há consequências de
ordem natural, social e econômica, em que pese resultar da combinação de fatores extraídos da
natureza. Trata-se de fenômeno recorrente por muitos anos, estudado e avaliado por campos diversos
do saber, resultando em implantação de Políticas Públicas, das mais diversas ordens. O presente
trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a relação entre políticas públicas, seca e recursos hídricos no
município de Pão de Açúcar – Alagoas. O município situa-se no sertão semiárido alagoano, às
margens da Bacia do Rio São Francisco, tem sido alvo de políticas de contenção, mas apresenta
quadro socioeconômico problemático, a exemplo de outras localidades nordestinas. Os
procedimentos metodológicos para a realização da pesquisa estão pautados nas seguintes etapas:
levantamento bibliográfico, para fundamentação teórica da pesquisa; trabalho de campo para o
conhecimento das dificuldades vivenciadas pela população do município; pesquisa de dados e
informações estatísticas e de registro oficial das políticas; Análise e elaboração de gráficos;
Interpretação e discussão dos resultados analisados. O estudo está vinculado a pesquisa de pós-
graduação e construção de Dissertação de Mestrado, a ser realizado em um período de 12 meses, e o
período de pesquisa deve compreender entre 1977 a 2012. A implantação de políticas públicas para
convivência no semiárido deve subsidiar a sustentabilidade ambiental do município. A questão dos
recursos hídricos aparece na presença da Bacia do São Francisco, na distribuição cronológica das
chuvas e nas políticas de contenção da seca ou estiagem. Palavras chave: Políticas públicas. recursos
hídricos. seca.

12-16 May 2014
THE CLIMATE ADAPTATION BUSINESS CHALLENGE: A STEPWISE APPROACH TO

STIMULATE INNOVATION AND BUSINESS BASED ON CLIMATE ADAPTATION
KNOWLEDGE. DECISION: ORAL
Sonja Döpp (1) *; Kees van Deelen (2,1); Pier Vellinga (3,1)
Knowledge for Climate, Utrecht, The Netherlands (1)
TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands (2)
Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands (3)
contact: s.dopp@programmabureauklimaat.nl
Abstract
Scientific and applied research on climate adaptation has evolved significantly in the last decade and
a lot of knowledge has been produced. Focus is shifting from fundamental research questions to
consolidation of knowledge and translation into practice. In the context of valorisation climate
adaptation research we developed the ‘value creation model' in which three domains of value
creation are distinguished: 1) climate robust investments, 2) strengthening the knowledge
infrastructure and 3) business development in the private sector. In the final stage of the Dutch
research program Knowledge for Climate we focus on the third and least developed domain of value
creation. We introduce a stepwise approach to explore new business opportunities and stimulate
climate innovation: the Climate Adaptation Business Challenge.Awareness for the urgency and
opportunities of adaptation in urban and rural development is increasing, and market opportunities
are emerging. Involvement of the private sector is a crucial link for application of knowledge in
practice and the development of cost-effective measures. However, the private sector seems to be
lagging behind. Due to the uncertainties involved and the long term return on investments it is
harder to make a business case for adaptation compared to mitigation for example. It takes creative
ideas and innovative solutions that combine climate adaptation with other issues and opportunities of
today.To stimulate this process, the Climate Adaptation Business Challenge focus on the concept of
‘ideation': generating new business ideas and translating knowledge into innovative products and
services. We organize network events where science meets business to explore new opportunities. In
a open competition, the best business ideas receive financing and business coaching to develop a
solid business plan. The most promising business plans are rewarded with financial support for
successful implementation of their product.Business ideas from the first edition of the Business
Challenge illustrate the great potential of adaptation business. Examples are new crops in brackish
agriculture, smartphone applications that encourage households and companies to take climate
adaptation measures, and a real-time precipitation information system for Africa based on satellite
images. We demonstrate how the Business Challenge provides a platform for smart ideas climate
adaptation knowledge and how it inspires scientists, policy makers and the private sector to explore
new business opportunities. Based on first experiences we present options for better involvement of
the scientific community in the process of ideation, and an improved concept for the international
Climate Adaptation Business Challenge in 2014.

12-16 May 2014
TOWARDS RURAL RESILIENCE: AN INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT

APPROACH FOR ADAPTATION AND SMART RISK TAKING. DECISION: ORAL
David Satterthwaite (1) *

Oxfam America, Boston, MA, USA (1)
contact: dsatterthwaite@oxfamamerica.org
Abstract
A strategic partnership between Oxfam America and the UN World Food Programme, initiated in
2010 to respond to the challenges faced by food-insecure communities in face of increasing
frequency and intensity of natural disasters, is in its third year of successful implementation. Known
as R4 Rural Resilience Initiative, R4 in short, the program builds on the initial success of HARITA
(Horn of Africa Risk Transfer for Adaptation), an integrated risk management framework developed
by Oxfam America, the Relief Society of Tigray (REST), together with Ethiopian farmers and
several other national and global partners[1]. R4 refers to the four risk management strategies that
the initiative integrates to enable farmers to strengthen the communities' food and income security
through a combination of improved resource management (risk reduction), insurance (risk transfer),
microcredit (prudent risk taking), and savings (risk reserves). In its three years of inception, R4 has
successfully expanded the HARITA operations in Ethiopia, and has initiated the implementation of
R4 pilot in Senegal.In Ethiopia, this agricultural season, R4 exceeded its goal of reaching 19,000
farmers by successfully extending its insurance services to more than 20,000 households in 80
villages[2] including a pilot village in a new region- Amhara. The Relief Society of Tigray (REST)
continues to implement R4 in Tigray, and the Amhara pilot is being implemented in partnership with
the Organization for Rehabilitation and Development in Amhara (ORDA).In Senegal, R4 continues
the pilot implementation for the 2013 agricultural season in 12 villages in the Koussanar
communauté rurale covering 500 households and 3,000 beneficiaries. The risk reduction work being
carried out includes activities like development of lowlan ds for rice cultivation, building wells for
horticultural production and training of farmers' associations in improved rice production techniques.
A study to assess the feasibility of different types of insurance products to meet the needs of farmers
was carried also carried out to inform index design for the next year.

12-16 May 2014
SYSTEMATIZATION OF ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE

MICROFINANCE SECTOR. DECISION: ORAL
Jacinto Buenfil (1) *

UNEP, Panama, Panama (1)
contact: jacinto.buenfil@unep-rolac.org
Abstract
This presentation will share lessons being learnt through partnering with the private microfinance
sector in catalyzing a large scale of local EbA actions. The Microfinance for Ecosystem based
Adaptation project aims at providing small landholders in the Andean Region of Colombia and Peru
with products and services to invest in the resilience of ecosystems upon which they depend to
secure and maintain their income streams in a climate change context. Forty measures were
identified as potentially viable to be incorporated by partner microfinance institutions into targeted
products and services. They were systemized according to their contribution to reduce climate risks,
generate income, and provide overall financial and ecosystem benefits. These interventions were
divided into four categories according to their result orientation and target audience: investment –
aimed at increasing yields or diversifying income in the short term); support – aimed at increasing
system resilience and contributing to higher stability towards climatic or market fluctuations in the
medium and long term; individual – directed towards family units or persons who see for their own
interests, and collective – directed towards groups with common interests. Two measures
(agroecology and permaculture) were considered as overarching pillars because they encompass
suites of interventions that can increase overall resilience through staggered investment. The
remaining options were placed in the following categories: agricultural support (organic fertilizers,
water reservoirs); ecological support (bee keeping, orchards, soil restoration); better agricultural
practices (conservation agriculture, integrated nutrient and pest management); mixed production
systems (family orchards); technological innovations (solar hydroponics, drip irrigation), and ancient
practices (terracing). They are all aimed at reducing climatic risks, and therefore production and
financial risks as well. Climatic risk was disaggregated into hazards, or climatic stimuli that are
currently changing and may be manifested as impacts on productive, ecological or human systems,
and impacts or the manifestation of climate hazards in one or more systems of interest. Examples of
hazards include changes in rainfall patterns, strong winds and extreme heat events, whereas impacts
include drought, productivity loss, floods, increased erosion, and lower water availability. Since
individuals or communities have little control over hazards, the proposed measures intend to address
impacts. Other systematization criteria that were qualitatively evaluated include the expected time to
achieve results and greenhouse gas emission potential. Since climate change adaptation cannot be
addressed through a single front, complementary options were identified for each intervention so that
overall system resilience is increased through microfinance investments.

12-16 May 2014
MICROFINANCE FOR ADAPTATION: PREPARING THE GROUND -

UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE RISKS, INCLUDING ECOSYSTEM BASED
ADAPTATION. DECISION: ORAL
Christoph Jungfleisch (1) *

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Frankfurt/Hessen, Germany (1)
contact: c.jungfleisch@fs.de
Abstract
Microfinance institutions attend the low income segments of the populations in their areas of
influence. These segments typically represent the most vulnerable populations. In the country side,
with agricultural production re* the main economic activities, these populations are exposed to
climate risks and change on a daily basis.The complexity of the evaluation of agroclimate risks limits
the willingness of Microfinance Institutions to serve low income segments active in agricultural
production to a greater extent. Therefore new methodologies are needed to address this vacuum in
order to increase the provision of financial products, especially lending products, to such
clients.Within the PNUMA led MEbA project, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management is
implementing a methodology which enables Microfinance Institutions to assess and analyze climate
requirements and vulnerabilities of specific crops in specific climate zones. The Microfinance
Institutions are therefore supported in enhancing their credit risk methodologies and deepen their
understanding of adverse effects of climate change including but not limited to the appearance of
new plagues, adverse impacts on productivity and yields like droughts and floodings as well as
phenological requirements for an ideal development of a crop. The methodology applies an
innovative approach to credit risk evaluation, triggering a paradigm change to traditional
microfinance technologies. While enhancing credit risk management, the introduction of the
methodology is expected to lower operational costs considerably and support a deepened and
broadened offer of (micro) financial products and services to targeted client segments.But not only
operations of participating institutions are being affected. Resulting data generated is used to
customize the offer of specialized capacity building services and loan products for the introduction of
ecosystem based adaptation efforts. The presentation will show how the methodology works and
how it is implemented within participating microfinance institution. Principal costs and benefits -
with special focus on relevance for (ecosystem based) adaptation- will be presented as well as main
challenges in data generation and analysis detailed.

12-16 May 2014
A MUDANÇA CLIMÁTICA PARA OS NEGÓCIOS: RESPOSTAS E MOTIVAÇÕES PARA

AÇÕES DE ADAPTAÇÃO DO SETOR EMPRESARIAL NO BRASIL.
Lira Luz Benites lázaro (1) *

Centro do Sistema Terrestre, do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil (1)
contact: lbenites@usp.br
Abstract
A mudança climática tornou-se uma questão relevante na agenda internacional, há crescente
interesse internacional no planejamento, financiamento, incentivos econômicos na "descarbonização"
da economia global e adaptação às mudanças climáticas. No entanto, a discussão até agora está
focado principalmente sobre o papel do setor público. Relativamente pouca atenção tem sido dada à
forma como o setor privado está respondendo aos riscos e oportunidades da mudança climática.
Apesar do papel que o setor empresarial representa como promotores do desenvolvimento
sustentável e como defensores de mecanismos de mercado. Segundo Global Development And
Environment Institute, a capacidade das grandes empresas cresceu surpreendentemente nas últimas
décadas, dado que estas detêm enormes recursos financeiros, econômicos, tecnológicos e de
informação, que poderiam ser utilizados para adaptação e ser fonte de financiamentos.A inserção à
economia internacional e comércio do Brasil é caracterizada principalmente pela participação de
exportações de minerais ou produtos agrícolas. A atividade produtiva das cinco maiores empresas
está relacionada com sectores e atividades de elevada sensibilidade ambiental, envolvem extração de
recursos naturais ou têm um alto consumo de energia. Assim, as empresas estão expostas aos efeitos
da mudança climática e demandam medidas de resposta associados à incorporação da variável clima
na estratégia corporativa.O objetivo do trabalho é apresentar o estudo realizado das motivações e
incentivos do setor empresarial no Brasil para implementação de medidas de adaptação à mudança
climática e da análise das políticas públicas como fatores que estimulam e impedem a participação e
investimentos do setor privado. A metodologia adotada é a qualitativa: estabelecemos um quadro
teórico para analisar a adaptação aos impactos diretos e indiretos das mudanças climáticas nas
organizações empresariais a partir da abordagem da aprendizagem organizacional, considerando as
informações de cinco estudos de caso e a análise do Plano Industrial instituído em base à Política
Nacional de Mudança do Clima.Os resultados mostram que o comportamento adaptativo esta
influenciada principalmente pelas condições de mercado e o contexto das políticas públicas. O
estudo contribui para uma compreensão mais profunda do papel do setor empresarial e do progresso
na conscientização dos riscos e oportunidades frente às mudanças climáticas. A análise das políticas
públicas considera o papel potencial do setor público para a eliminação de barreiras, incentivos para
a participação e investimentos do setor privado.

12-16 May 2014
ENERGY MANAGEMENT AS A MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN THE

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF CALDAS, COLOMBIA
Olga Ocampo (1) *; Luis Perdomo (1)

Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia (1)
contact: olgaocampolopez@gmail.com
Abstract
Various technologies have been proposed to mitigate the effects of exponential growth in global
energy use. Energy management is a parallel methodology with greater potential in developing
countries as Colombia; because industries can realize gains by incorporating analyses and techniques
of energy management which can reduce costs and carbon footprint. According to the Second
National Communication of Colombian to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, energy sector and industrial processes are responsible for 36.65 % and 5.10 % respectively
of the national emissions of greenhouse gases. Moreover, the industrial sector energy consumption is
around 0,2 - 0,5 % of GDP and this consumption would represent 0.4 - 1% of GDP in 2025. The
higher intensity energy consumption occurs in food and metallurgy companies which are the main
industrial sectors of Caldas, Colombia. Through case studies of Caldas industries, best practices in
energy management were identified, including costs and benefits of implementing these practices.
Most energy efficiency in industry was achieved through changes in how energy is managed in
industrial facilities. ISO 50001:2011 provides a framework for energy management system in
companies and integrate energy efficiency into industrial corporate culture and daily management
practices. Besides, the Mining and Energy Planning Unit of Colombia- UPME- recommended
different tools and techniques for energy analysis in production process. Energy management is
aligned with the Colombian mitigation strategy of low carbon development which seeks to decouple
the greenhouse gas growth of National economic growth. In addition, energy management is an
adaptation strategy to climate change because of the Colombian energy matrix, where hydroelectric
energy plays a substantial role; in the department of Caldas for example, all the electricity comes
from hydroelectric generation, which represents the largest demand for water in watersheds.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION GOOD PRACTICE: USING CASE STUDIES TO HELP BREAKDOWN

BARRIERS.
David Rissik (1) *; Nev Reis (1)

NCCARF, Gold Coast Queensland, Australia (1)
contact: d.rissik@griffith.edu.au
Abstract
Climate change adaptation in Australia is most likely to be implemented at a regional or local scale.
Over the last decade a number of organisations have taken steps to manage the impacts of
unavoidable climate change resulting in an emerging body of practices that provide potential
exemplars of good practice. To help practitioners learn from the experience of others the Adaptation
Good Practice (AGP) project was designed to provide tangible, practical, real-life examples of
adaptation processes and to identify the critical success factors associated with each project. We
surveyed practitioners to identify examples of good practice from around Australia, including at
different levels of government, infrastructure and the private sector. We selected 16 case examples
and used these to develop case studies. We also surveyed criteria that result in good practice and
distilled the 280 suggestions into five critical success key factors: leadership, engagement,
connectivity, sustainability, and cost. We considered the role of each of these factors in each of the
16 case studies . It was clear that these factors were essential considerations of successful projects,
as was having an adaptive/iterative planning and implementation framework that enabled
practitioners to follow a series of steps and to learn from mistakes. The 16 case studies and a
synthesis report were widely disseminated following a stakeholder engagement plan. We supported
this with workshops, presentations, videos, and through website delivery. We also held a field day to
view and discuss good practice, and to provide 40 “Good Practice Ambassadors” with the knowledge
to influence their peers.

12-16 May 2014
POLITICAL PROCESSES OF REGIONAL/LOCAL ADAPTATION IN GERMANY,

DRIVERS AND BARRIERS
Hubertus Bardt (1) *; Esther Chrischilles (1)

Cologne Institute for Economic Research, Cologne, Germany (1)
contact: bardt@iwkoeln.de
Abstract
To investigate how municipalities in Germany adapt to climate effects, a survey of 317 local
governments has been conducted. The survey reveals that very few followed a systematic or strategic
approach. Handbooks and guidelines propose a sequence of steps beginning with an analysis of local
climate change and its impacts, followed by an identification of potential fields of action and
adaptation measures. Implementing these measures is the last element of the process. In reality, the
adaptation process is completely different in most municipalities.Three out of four municipalities
already took action against climate risks like floodwater or extreme events. However, in many cases
most of the preparing steps have been left out. Only one out of three local authorities has evaluated
future developments of climate events on a local level and more than 40 percent have identified
possible consequences, adaptation options and concrete measures.The situation is fundamentally
different in large cities. Here, more than 80 percent did an analysis of local climate change; about 75
percent discussed future impacts and identified fields of action. Almost 60 percent identified
adaptation measures and only 55 percent implemented them. Most large cities follow the sequence of
steps, where most municipalities started with the first step and a smaller number finished with the
last.The ideal sequence of steps in the adaptation process is not common in reality. Most
municipalities start to adapt - without a proper analysis of future developments and options. One
explanation is that many of them typically react to a specific event, which they believe to have
enough knowledge about. Another explication focuses on the resources of municipalities: Only large
cities can afford specialists to deal with climate change. These specialized units are valuable to
improve the knowledge base and help to set the adaptation process on a rational base.By examining
the obstacles for a more ambitious adaptation policy it becomes clear, that the predominant barrier
concerns financial resources. But adaptation deficits also regard institutional matters like the vague
responsibilities for adaptation at different levels of government. To deal with these obstacles will be
substantial to drive a systematic and comprehensive adaptation approach at the local level.

12-16 May 2014
PERCCEPTION OF HAZARD AND CLIMAT RISK IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION OF

BRAZIL: THE CASE OF STUDY OF SÃO LUIZ DO PARAITINGA
Rodrigo Rudge Ramos Ribeiro (1) *; Ricardo Muscari Scacchetti (2)

Multidisciplinary Institute for Environment Studies Ramon Margalef, Alicante, Spain (1)
Instituto Ekos Brasil, São Paulo, Brazil (2)
contact: rodrigo.rudge@gmail.com
Abstract
The aim of the research was to identify the main factors that influence the perception of natural
hazards in the Southeast region of Brazil.The risk perception was evaluated by survey, involving 160
people from two different cities: São Luiz do Paraitinga, recently affected by extreme climate events,
and Paranapiacaba, not affected by extreme climate events. The questionnaires assessed general
information, such as age, gender and location, the personal impact of natural events and the
perception of natural hazards, in particular floods. The correlation between different features and the
perception of natural hazards has been tested.The results indicate that the perception of natural
hazards is mainly driven by personal previous experience of natural disasters. People who
experienced difficulties due to natural disasters such as floods, are more aware of the adaptation
actions that should be taken.Despite the fact that natural disasters are local, national actions are
needed to direct sufficient funds and knowledge to manage local natural hazards. Risk perception has
an important influence on humans' decision-making process. In this light, it is key to bring relevant
information about local natural hazards to national and global level in order to streamline the
implementation of effective policies.

12-16 May 2014
KLIMZUG: WITH REGIONAL COOPERATION NETWORKS TOWARDS

IMPLEMENTATION
Jennifer Striebeck (1) *; Hubertus Bardt (1); Esther Chrischilles (1)

Abstract
Successful adaptation to climate change requires an effective transfer of scientific results into
practical action. Therefore, a new approach towards transformative and integrative science is needed
- an approach which includes practitioners and all involved actors in the adaptation process already
at an early stage. Especially local actors from institutional and business sectors need to be included
in the research and strategy developing process. Only by building interdisciplinary networks on a
regional level successful adaptation strategies can be implemented.Germany's largest research
funding activity "KLIMZUG" is focusing on the development of innovative strategies for adaptation
to climate change on a regional level. The funding activity particularly stresses the regional aspect
since global problems such as climate change must be tackled by measures at local level. Therefore,
the funding activity - with a volume of more 80 million Euro - seeks to support regional cooperation
networks which combine science, economy and politics to develop new and improved methods for
climate change adaptation.The presentation will illustrate several examples of the KLIMZUG
cooperation networks in Germany and will further highlight the key determinants of successful
implementation of adaptation measures. The focus will be on the importance of regional climate
scenarios and vulnerability analysis for the subsequent identification of fields of activity, innovation
potentials and the involvement of regional stakeholders from politics, administration, business and
civil society in the whole process.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS - CASE STUDIES FROM EUROPE
Martin Kernan (1) *

University College London, London, UK (1)
contact: m.kernan@ucl.ac.uk
Abstract
Here we describe the development of a management tool-kit that will help water managers design
cost-effective restoration and management programmes for freshwater ecosystems that will account
for the projected future impacts of these changes. The main purpose of this is to support efforts to
achieve and maintain compliance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Habitats
Directive (HD). It is being developed by the EU Framework 7 project REFRESH which considers
how freshwater ecosystems in Europe will change over the next fifty years. REFRESH is generating
the understanding and tools needed to implement an adaptive management approach and highlighting
specific adaptive measures to minimise the deleterious impacts of global change.Within REFRESH
gaps in understanding of how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in the environment brought
about by global change (e.g. temperature, flow regime, nutrient loading) are being addressed by
bringing together results from field, laboratory and mesocosm experiments and analysis of existing
databases.The information generated by this work will feed into the development of the REFRESH
modelling tool-kit, initially being developed in a number of case study catchments in the UK,
Finland, Norway, Czech Republic and Greece. In each catchment REFRESH is;(i) generating
scenarios of change over the next 50-60 years;(ii) assessing how projected change will affect the
physical and chemical status of surface waters;(iii) identifying the ecological response driven by
these changes;(iv) identifying where this is likely to cause problems reaching prescribed ecological
targets (e.g. compliance with the WFD and HD);(v) modelling the response to management measures
(in discussion with local stakeholders), adapted to accommodate future global change; and(vi)
examining the cost effectiveness of the management responseHere we highlight results from the case
study catchments.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION AT THE MUNICIPAL SCALE IN THE US INTERMOUNTAIN WEST:

WHAT DRIVES ACTION IN THE FACE OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE-RELATED
HAZARDS?
Lisa Dilling (1) *; Krister Andersson (1); John Berggren (1); Ashwin Ravikumar (2,1)
University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA (1)
Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru (2)
contact: ldilling@colorado.edu
Abstract
As adaptation to climate change emerges, it is clear that much of the action necessary to prepare for
and respond to climate change impacts lies with decision makers at the local scale. While there
have been pockets of activity and some substantial progress in areas, many barriers to climate change
adaptation have been described. Barriers to climate change adaptation include lack of resources, lack
of information, incompatible attitudes and perceptions, fear of political ramifications, etc. However
many cities are well used to responding to weather and climate hazards, and have proactively
prepared for such hazards, even if they are not particularly frequent. As a complement to studies that
examine barriers to adaptation, we chose to conduct a study of the drivers that lead to planning for
and adapting to weather and climate-related hazards at the municipal scale, as a proxy for
understanding what might drive adaptive behavior towards climate change. Climate change impacts
will also partially be expressed through such extremes, so we suggest that behavior toward extremes
may provide key insights into drivers of adaptation in the future. We studied U.S. municipalities in
the intermountain west states of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. These municipalities experience
extreme climate events such as flooding, droughts, wildfire, blizzards, hailstorms, and tornadoes on a
regular basis, some more recent examples being the Black Forest Fire and the 2013 Front Range
Floods. To assess responses and planning to natural hazards and extreme events in the region, we
conducted face-to-face and phone interviews with multiple key informants in a randomly selected
sample of 60 municipalities with populations over 10,000. The goal of these interviews was to ask
about the risks of weather and climate-related hazards, past events, responses taken (if any), planning
activities, and the role of informal community groups, state and national policies, and other
influences on municipal actions. One of our goals with this initial phase was to understand the range
of possible responses and to generate hypotheses to explain the differences in responses (i.e. the
drivers of adaptive actions). Secondly, we conducted 6 in-depth case studies of municipalities in
Utah and Colorado to further explore the question of what might explain differences in adaptive
behavior at the municipal scale. We find that many municipalities have implemented policies that
are adaptive to climate-related hazards, although there are significant differences in responses
between municipalities, and suggest a role for multiple drivers of adaptive responses.

12-16 May 2014
UPTAKE AND PATHWAYS OF COASTAL ADAPTATION PROCESSES IN AUSTRALIA
Debora M. de Freitas (1) *

Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong/NSW, Australia (1)
Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, Divisão de Engenharia Civil, Departamento de Hidráulica, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (2)
contact: freitas.debora@gmail.com
Abstract
Coastal living countries such as Australia are the frontline of climate change impacts. With an
extensive coastline of around 59,736 km including islands, Australia faces many coastal challenges.
The range of latitudes and climates, currents and complex geomorphology create a wide variety of
habitats. Complex interactions in the biophysical systems, competing interests, a multiagency
management system, and a fragmented governance framework present managers with a range of
issues to consider. In Australia, as elsewhere, effective governance of coastal areas is challenged by:
complexity of natural coastal systems; diverse uses of coastal areas; diverse jurisdictions (e.g.
international, Commonwealth, state, local) and administrative bodies with coastal responsibilities
(e.g. shipping and ports, planning, biodiversity management, fishing, recreation); diverse ways of
understanding and appreciating coasts; and different perspectives on how it should be governed,
managed, and used. It is now evident that at the national, regional and local scales, climate science
uptake requires both accessible knowledge systems and flexile structures and processes that facilitate
policy actions in support of climate change adaptation. Researchers in a three-year (2010-2013)
Australian social research programme, the Coastal Collaboration Cluster, are seeking to understand
how the dialogue between climate scientists and decision-makers can be enhanced in the complex
and uncertain domain of coastal management and climate adaptation planning. The Cluster is a
collaboration between seven Australian universities and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO) Wealth from Oceans Flagship. The Cluster has analysed coastal
zone management processes in Australia and developed conceptual and adaptive approaches to
connect science with the needs of governments, communities and industries in meeting the
challenges climate change presents. In this talk, I will focus our discussion on the major outcomes of
the coastal adaptation strategies. I will present some of the principal barriers, opportunities and
pathways for the uptake of biophysical and social science into coastal management decisions and
policy making. Major conclusions drawn reveal that, based upon our analysis of the interviews
conducted it is evident that current approaches to coastal adaptation planning are likely to be beset
by: complex processes and uncertain understandings; diverse forms of legitimate knowledge;
multiple sources of fragmented information; constrained and conflicting and planning horizons and
timeframes; sensitivities regarding the release of information; and, the sense that coastal adaptation is
political. While the focus of this analysis is on coastal adaptation in Australia, it is expected that the
insights provided may have relevance for other jurisdictions.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION OF SOIL CONSERVATION PRACTICES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN

MEXICO: THE NEED TO EVALUATE CURRENT PRACTICES
Helena Cotler (1) *; Silke Cram (2); Sergio Martinez-Trinidad (2)

National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, D.F., Mexico, Mexico (1)
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F. Mexico, Mexico (2)
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F. Mexico, Mexico (3)
Abstract
Climate change in combination with deforestation and some agricultural practices increases potential
erosion rates. Land degradation affects 45% of the Mexican territory. The government responds to
this through allocation of financial resources to implement some soil conservation practices but with
little reference to local conditions. In the context of climate change, one of the main problems of soil
degradation is the reduction of the soil organic carbon (SOC) levels; this influences other properties,
such as soil water content, soil temperature and soil structure, that can in turn lead to
desertification.Therefore, the implementation of soil conservation practices will be crucial for
Mexico´s resilience and adaptation. The adaptation process must include the monitoring both of the
environment and of the outcome of measures taken; this step is essential to ensure that adaptive
actions do not subsequently prove to be maladaptive.Adaptation planning must begin with an
understanding of the local context. Thus, we evaluate some soil forest conservation practices in
climatically contrasting sites in Mexico: arid, temperate and humid areas. Soil characteristics were
evaluated at contrasting sites with and without conservation practices, and the land owners were
interviewed to ascertain their perception and adoption of these practices. The most widespread
practices in forest soils are construction of ditches, arrangement of plant material and terracing.
However, these practices do not incorporate SOC into the soil profile and on the contrary can
promote its loss, thereby affecting infiltration and moisture retention.Nowadays, soil conservation
practices in Mexico are implemented without consideration of the biophysical setting, the social
environment and climatic pressures. Solutions are adopted without having properly identified the
problem and the objectives of conservation practices. At the local institutional level, the lack of rules
and standards for management of forests in communal areas is an important obstacle to the
successful implementation of adaptive measures. Even though there is an awareness of
environmental deterioration and of some local indicators of climate change, the low adoption of
adaptive measures may be attributable to scant training, to increasing migration out of the area, and
to weak social organization.At the national level, there is a need to there is a need for institutional
change to facilitate the selection and implementation of adaptive measures in accordance with local
characteristics.

12-16 May 2014
PROMOTING ADAPTIVE CAPACITIES IN BRAZIL'S SEMI-ARID NORTHEAST: WHAT

ARE THE LINKS BETWEEN CLIMATE RISK REDUCTION AND SUSTAINABILITY
OBJECTIVES?
Martin Obermaier (1) *

COPPE/UFRJ, Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil (1)
contact: martin@ppe.ufrj.br
Abstract
One of the upmost concerns about climate change is the possibility that its impacts can offset any
gains we have accomplished thus far in terms of human and sustainable development, particularly in
less developed regions. The semiarid NE of Brazil (the Sertão) is expected to suffer considerably
from climate change. Recurrent droughts have historically affected the Sertão and rural livelihoods.
Inadequate agricultural practices and lack of environmental protection units intensify desertification
and aridization of its highly endemic Caatinga biome. Under climate change, this situation may
worsen considerably: climate models project strong reductions in rainfall, higher drought frequency
and warmer surface temperatures. The NE is currently experiencing its worst drought in 50 years.
According to climate scientists these events can be seen as an indication of future climate change
impacts, i.e., what is an exceptionally severe drought today might become the everyday situation in
the future. Against this backdrop, for the past ten years, the Brazilian government has made
considerable progress by implementing a broad social experiment in poverty elimination and basic
health services provision known as Bolsa Familia (a cash transfer for families below a certain level
of poverty and with children enrolled in school). Research by the authors indicates that such policies
have reduced vulnerability to drought (and thus, as a proxy, also vulnerability to future climate
change). However, they may be insufficient in addressing broader social, economic and
environmental concerns that limit sustainable rural livelihood transformation in the Sertão. How such
generic efforts aimed at "good development" can reduce risk/vulnerability in NE communities in
comparison with efforts to enhance specific risk management capacities in a population, and how
reduced vulnerability to climatic risk supports efforts to enhance social and environmental
sustainability objectives is the focus of our paper. The analysis is based on two case studies in the
NE Brazil states of Ceará and Bahia, focusing on the intersection of livelihoods, technological
innovation, environmental sustainability and vulnerability to drought. Specifically, we compare a
BAU development case of Bolsa Família with an integrated rural livelihood and ecosystem
conservation program, the Caatinga Conservation and Management Project, integrating important
adaptation components.

12-16 May 2014
DEVELOPING INDICATORS TO ASSESS ADAPTATION EFFECTIVENESS: THE

APPROACH IN ENGLAND
Martin Parry (1) *; Lola Vallejo (1)

Imperial College London, London, UK (1)
contact: martin@mlparry.com
Abstract
Martin Parry 1 and Lola Vallejo21Grantham Institute, Imperial College London 2 Secretariat of the
Adaptation Sub-Committee, UK.In England the Climate Change Act 2008 established an
independent committee to advise government on progress in adapting to climate change. This
Adaptation Sub-Committee has developed a set of indicators to measure adaptation effectiveness.
Three broad types of indicator are being used: indicators of altered outcome (a measure of the
avoided impact), indicators of action on adaptation (eg the amount spent), indicators of altered
vulnerability (a measure of reduced exposure). Of these, the latter are currently proving to be the
most useful. But indicators of outcome will be increasingly used as the systems for monitoring these
are put in place. This presentation describes the present state of development of these indicators, and
illustrates them with examples of adaptation to risks of impact from climate change in the UK.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: PROCESSES AND OUTCOMES.

EXPERIENCES IN MEXICO.
Cecilia Conde (1) *; Alejandro Monterroso (2)

Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, Mexico, Mexico (1)
Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo, México, Mexico (2)
contact: conde@unam.mx
Abstract
There is low consensus as to how to develop adaptation actions. It is common to find lists of "good
intentions", that suggest actions that are not in a specific spatial or temporal context.An effort that is
being developed in Mexico considers adaptation as a process of learning, a creative and participatory
process that is based on equity and rigorous analysis, and that has to arrive to specific outcomes,
consistent with development and wellbeing aspirations. As an initiative of the National Institute of
Ecology and Climate Change ( INECC -SEMARNAT) in Mexico, a project with those
characteristics is being developed in four regions in Mexico. Those regions were chosen considering
highly vulnerable municipalities that are located in specific watersheds and ecosystems, which gives
the study a territorial approach, rather than sectorial or climate regionalization.The first step taken
within the project was the involvement of prestigious researchers in the region, well known not only
for their rigorous studies in their areas of expertise, but also for their participation in regional
solutions to environmental problems, and for their relationships with regional civil organizations and
communities. With this, the first step then was to build a network of experts that gave credibility to
the future activities that will be developed within the project.The results built with these key
stakeholders indicate that there are determinants of vulnerability to climate change that are regional
specific; even if many of the social, economic and environmental indicators have followed similar
processes in the country, the relative weight of each of these indicators are different.In a next step,
those results will be discussed with key decision makers in the region. With them, an assessment of
practices that have build solutions to environmental regional problems will be analyzed in the
context of a changing climate. The findings of that process will then be discussed with communities
in the municipalities considered most vulnerable, to detect and agree those actions that can increase
their adaptive capacity.

12-16 May 2014
APPLICATION FOR PROMOTING A LOCAL AGRICULTURE BY USING CLIMATE

CHANGE PROJECTION DATA AND CROP SIMULATION MODELS. -A CASE STUDY
OF KOCHI PREFECTURE, JAPAN-
Motoki Nishimori (1) *; Motomasa Sakata (2); Toshihiro Hasegawa (1); Koji Sassa (3); Shinjiro
Kanae (4)
National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan (1)
Kochi Agricultural Research Center, Kochi, Japan (2)
Kochi University, Kochi, Japan (3)
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan (4)
contact: mnishi@affrc.go.jp
Abstract
Economic structure of Kochi Prefecture, located in the southwestern part of Japan, may be drastically
shifted by climate change effects and their adaptation measures. The reasons are that their economy
strongly depends on the primary industries, which are influenced by climate conditions such as the
frequency changes of extreme higher temperature, heavy rain and typhoons. We have carried on the
research project that integrally implements climate downscaling and simulation technologies for
agricultural adaptations on climate change. For market horticulture, an innovative environmental
simulator for plastic gardening greenhouse has already assembled to investigate the influences of
yields and qualities of local special crops.A technology to estimate heading date, yield and content
rate of protein of paddy rice for Koshi-hikari and Hino-hikari (every most popular early- and normal-
ripening variety in Japan) are also established. Although the yield is projected to increase owing to
fertilization effect of CO2, when extreme higher temperature occurs near future, the yields would
significantly decreases and the protein contents slightly increases for the preliminary experiments by
using a simple ‘pseudo-warming’ climate scenario made of observed daily temperature added
constant increasing. It suggests that fertilizer applications and water temperature control for paddy
rice cultivation are quite important. Hereafter, we have to compare the result between thus simple
climate change data and conventionally downscaled scenarios for local promotion throughout
climate change adaptations.

12-16 May 2014
BEST PRACTICE CASES OF LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN FRANCE

Abstract
To help French local authorities identify the type of action which can contribute to climate change
adaptation, ADEME, the French Agency for the Environment and Energy Management, has
identified and analysed 23 best practice cases. The cases are representative of the adaptation
challenges French local authorities have to face in the areas of: land and urban planning, buildings,
ecosystems, water resources, agriculture and forestry, health and tourism.The method developed to
choose and analyse the case studies will be presented and a selection of best practice case studies
detailed.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS – EXAMPLES

FROM THE ANDES, HIMALAYAS AND ALPS
Nadine Salzmann (2,1) *; Christian Huggel (1); Markus Stoffel (3); Holger Frey (1); Rafael Neukom
(1); André Wehrli (4); Patrick Sieber (4); Janine Kuriger (4); Jean-Gabriel Duss (4)
University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland (2)
University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland (3)
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, Bern, Switzerland (4)
contact: nadine.salzmann@geo.uzh.ch
Abstract
The world’s high-mountain environments are characterized by high spatial climate variability and
extreme climate conditions, and they have evolved vastly specialised and adapted natural ecosystems
and societies. In turn, the socio-environmental systems in mountain regions and adjacent downstream
areas are highly vulnerable to changing conditions while their adaptive capacity is typically low, also
because of their remoteness. Thereby, long-term availability of fresh water and the risks related to
natural hazards are critical issues for the livelihood of societies in mountain areas, and both are
related to changing climatic pattern and the impacts to cryospheric regimes (including glaciers, snow
and permafrost). Switzerland has a long-standing tradition, expertise and interest in monitoring and
maintaining high-mountain ecosystems in order to support well-being of, and reduce risks for
societies. During the past years, the Swiss Agency of Development and Cooperation (SDC) in
collaboration with consortiums of Swiss universities has launched a number of programs and
initiatives in the Andes and the Himalayas to join forces with the local governments, institutions and
universities there. In general, all programs can be summarized and reduced to five common general
lines of actions, including (i) the generation of baseline data (climatology, glaciology, hydrology,
sociology and related fields) in order to provide the scientific basis for the development of adequate
adaptation methods at the local to regional level and to improve physical process knowledge, (ii) the
integration of scientific results and the human dimension, (iii) education, capacity building and
academic curriculums, (iv) institutional and international collaborations, and finally (v) supporting
mainstreaming of respective measures in the policy processes. In our contribution we will provide an
overview of ongoing climate change adaptation programs in the Andes, Himalayas and experiences
from the Alps, followed by a synthesis and lessons learnt so far and a discuss on how to best move
forward, including for example improvements of south-south cooperation.

12-16 May 2014
OPTIONS FOR REGIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR HOTSPOTS IN THE

NETHERLANDS
Kim van Nieuwaal (1,2) *; Monique Slegers (1,2); Kees van Deelen (3,2); Peter Driessen (1,2); Pier
Vellinga (4,2); Florrie de Pater (2); Sonja Döpp (2)
Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands (1)
Knowledge for Climate, Utrecht, The Netherlands (2)
TNO, Utrecht, The Netherlands (3)
Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands (4)
contact: k.van.nieuwaal@programmabureauklimaat.nl
Abstract
Like other Delta areas in the world, the Netherlands is facing major challenges to cope with the
adverse effects of climate change. In the past decade progress has been made in the field of climate
adaptation research. The Netherlands has been a fore-runner in an integral and long-term approach to
adaptation to climate change. It was one of the first countries to present a National Adaptation
Strategy in 2007.The Dutch national research program Knowledge for Climate (2008-2014) is
focusing on climate proofing the Netherlands by developing state-of-the art and applicable
knowledge. Scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders work jointly in an effort to invest in
sustainable and climate proof regions with clear and tangible results. The ambition is to deliver so-
called ‘options for regional adaptation strategies' for eight of the regions, or hotspots, that are
participating in the program.Crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies is that the
research has practical value. The valorization of knowledge, or the creation of economical or societal
value on the basis of scientific knowledge, plays therefore a central role in the program. Value
creation in the program takes place in three domains. The first domain of value creation takes place
through climate robust investments in spatial development. The second domain involves the
strengthening the knowledge infrastructure. The third domain is the development of business.We
demonstrate on the basis of five guiding principles, or key stones of the program how we have gone
about in these domains to develop these regional adaptation strategies. These key stones are: (1.)
balancing scientific excellence and societal relevance, (2.) co-creation of knowledge, (3.) coupling
long term horizons of climate change with short-term horizons of decision making processes, (4.)
integrating climate adaptation in ongoing spatial developments, and (5.) creating business
opportunities.Although we conclude that there is no ready-made recipe for acquiring regional
adaptation strategies, we indicate that these five keystones have proven to be instrumental in that
respect. We argue that regional adaptation strategies require integrated research, through bridging
science and policy, sectors, disciplines and scales, both geographically, institutionally and temporal.
Through concrete regional examples from the Knowledge for Climate hotspots, we indicate best
practices, pitfalls and conclusions from a decade of climate adaptation research in The Netherlands.

12-16 May 2014
SCIENCE BASED ADAPTATION PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION. A HOLISTIC

APPROACH FROM AUSTRIA.
Johann Stötter (1,2); Eric Veulliet (1); Bruno Abegg (1,2); Ulrich Strasser (1,2); Katrin Schneider
(1); Stefan Ortner (1); Paul Stampfl (1); Angela Michiko Hama (1) *
alpS Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria (1)
University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (2)
contact: hama@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Focusing on applied research and consultancy services at the science-industry-policy interfaces, the
alpS Centre for Climate Change Adaptation is one of Austria's Competence Centers for Excellent
Technologies (COMET). In order to obtain implementable research results for sustainable adaptation
in mountain regions, the Centre developed an approach that is governed by the alpS adaptation cycle
following the steps of integrated risk management. It sequentially orders methodologies, starting
with quantitative methods and becoming increasingly more qualitative in nature. The cycle is
composed of the following elements:ClimPact addresses climate change impacts on human-
environment systems. Mostly quantitative methods are employed for impact analysis and assessment.
This includes the development of scenarios for the natural environment and socio-economic
scenarios on various scales.Based on the climate change impact scenarios, ClimRisk analyses
vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity and the cost/benefit of climate change impacts. Social,
economic and ecological impacts of climate change are assessed from the perspective of the alpS
open risk concept where not only the negative, but also the positive consequences of climate and
socio-economic changes are taken into account.Adaptation strategies and technologies are developed
in ClimFit in a multi-stakeholder manner. A ranking of impacts is carried out with respect to, e.g.,
social groups, critical infrastructure or ecosystem services. Similarly, measures are prioritised
according to their effectiveness, cost/benefit, adaptive capacity and pace of
implementation.ClimCom is dedicated to providing methodical support for education and outreach
on adaptation. Strategies and formats are developed for target groups such as companies, the public
sector, educators and students. Taking a participatory approach, this includes the development and
offering of education programmes, trainings of trainers and public relations.ClimAct represents the
concrete implementation of climate change adaptation measures. As integrative part of adaptation,
monitoring and evaluation are offered accordingly to identify achievements, emerging risks and
opportunities and corrective measures.This five-tiered adaptation process informs the design of more
than 20 public-private partnership projects ranging from water resource management to adaptation
concepts for tourist destinations. It provides a framework for individual projects and the integration
of research and practice within and across alpS. A handbook to guide the implementation of the alpS
adaptation cycle is produced, enabling its transferability to other actors in mountain regions.This
presentation will elaborate on the holistic approach and showcase examples. Benefits and challenges
will be discussed as well as options of sharing the concept with the global mountain research,
practitioner and policy community.

12-16 May 2014
FOOD SECURITY, DROUGHT AND SOCIAL POLICY IN NE BRAZIL: BUILDING

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AT THE HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
Maria Carmen Lemos (1) *; Don Nelson (2); Hallie Eakin (3); Yun Jia Lo (1)
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA (1)
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA (2)
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA (3)
contact: lemos@umich.edu
Abstract
This paper analyzes data from a longitudinal household study of drought preparedness and food
security impacts during two significant drought events 15 years apart (1997/8 and 2012). The
analysis focuses on the impact of poverty alleviation programs on the adaptive capacities of small-
scale rainfed agriculturalists. We explore the level to which policy responses shape the adaptive
capacity and ability to respond of 480 households in six municípios in the state of Ceará, NE Brazil.
Although drought occurrences are unpredictable, the magnitude of droughts over the last few
decades has remained within a range that permits a longitudinal analysis of drought impacts,
farmers’ capacities and public policy. Recently in Ceará, many state-level emergency drought
programs have been eliminated and replaced by a national-level poverty reduction/cash transfer
program (Bolsa Família) designed to increase long-term development of human capital. In this sense,
the region represents a large-scale natural experiment in which poverty reduction programs serve as
an integral component of the government's drought risk management and adaptation approach. Our
results suggest that although the overall adaptive capacity of the majority of the households to cope
with drought has increased significantly because of the Bolsa Família, their vulnerability (as
measured by food insufficiency) remains high. These findings suggest that although building generic
capacities (e.g. income, education, health) can critically affect vulnerability, they may not be
sufficient to manage and reduce risk. They also suggest that there is still much we need to understand
about how social and risk management interventions may spearhead social transformation in the
region.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION PROCESS IN TWO RIVER BASINS IN MEXICO
Verónica Bunge (1) *; Helena Cotler (1)

National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, Mexico, DF, Mexico (1)
contact: veronica.bunge@inecc.gob.mx
Abstract
A proposal has been developed to implement adaptation measures in two river basins in central
Mexico. The work presented here explores an approach about the concepts related to adaptation to
climate change and discusses the actions that can encourage a participatory, pluralistic and self-
replicable process.Unlike mitigation, adaptation occurs locally due to climate impacts being specific
to the characteristics of settlements, of productive activities, and to biophysical conditions of a given
territory. This suggests that "adaptation kits" consisting of one-size-fits-all solutions could be
ineffective and inefficient if implemented in any region. The actions required to adapt to climate
change impacts must be proposed and managed by the people of each locality.In addition, adaptation
measures cannot be conceived as isolated actions. They should be seen as constituting a process that
combines different and complementary measures conceived and adopted by local communities. In
this proposal, the project is the catalyst of an adaptation process that promotes both local capacity
building and the implementation of integrated systems combining green technologies, sustainable
production systems, conservation practices and rehabilitation of ecosystems. The monitoring and
evaluation of these actions is an essential activity that also must be implemented by local
communities to adjust and improve measures taken.On the other hand, it is important to recognize
that water is the articulator of all problems discussed in the issue of climate change. Water
sustainability requires the proper management of both, the recharge area and the activities that affect
its quantity and its quality. A systemic approach of the territory is essential in the addressing of
climate change and, in this sense, a watersheds approach appears as the adequate unit of analysis to
deal with adaptation actions. The watershed as a spatial unit recognizes natural relations between
resources and activities, and links them spatially and temporarily.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATIC CHANGE AND QUALITY OF LIFE: UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF

DROUGHT ON HOUSEHOLD WELL-BEING IN CEARA, NE BRAZIL
Ana Martins (1) *; Maria Lemos (2); Arlindo Philippi Jr (1)

Faculdade de Saúde Pública - USP, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
School of Natural Resouces & Environment - University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA (2)
contact: anabedran@usp.br
Abstract
Research focusing on quality of life has suggested that climate change may produce negative impacts
on well-being, especially among highly vulnerable populations. This study aims at assessing how a
severe drought event in 2012 has shaped farming households’ perception of well-being in two
municipios in the state of Ceara, NE Brazil—Limoeiro do Norte (Vale do Jaguaribe) and Parambu
(Inhamuns)—against the backdrop of social reform. In Ceara, despite significant gains in terms of
socioeconomic development and political change in the past two decades, households, especially
those of rainfed farmers, remain highly vulnerable to drought. However, recent social intervention
both at the federal (Bolsa Familia) and state (Agentes de Saude) levels may have not only critically
influenced how households perceive their quality of life but also how they relate this perception to
their ability to respond to drought. On the one hand, many of the impacts of drought such as food
insecurity, lack of access to water, loss of property and livestock, migration, reduction of
biodiversity, physical and mental illness, and helplessness directly and indirectly affect quality of
life. On the other hand, many of the assets (capitals) that increase households’ adaptive capacity to
climate impact also influence well-being (income, health, education, social capital, etc.). Better
understanding how these two processes affect each other is critical to inform policy and foster long
term resilience and well-being in drought affected regions.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND GOVERNANCE: A CASE OF SAO PAULO
Juliana Cezare (1); Ana Martins (1) *; Sonia Coutinho (1); Arlindo Philippi Jr (1); Hans Bellen (2)
Faculdade de Saúde Pública - USP, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil (2)
contact: anabedran@usp.br
Abstract
Nowadays in a modern world it's seen that in one side it exist science and technology advances with
a significant progress related to development based on sustainable bases. Whereas in the other side,
issues such as problems caused by the new consumption pattern and increase of the income as well
as environmental degradation, increase of poverty and unbalanced population are getting even worst.
The current discussion about such a scenario it’s been based on the thematic of climate changes and
its impact on economy and society which eventually are going to be more visible at the developed
countries because of their geographic and economic characteristics, without forget their social
vulnerability situation. Thus, the way out is to build an specific strategy to implement an effective
actions at the public spheres. The debate about adaptation to the climate changes has to be included
both into the politic schedule as well as by the society overall. Improve institutional capacity and
governance is important to foster the Adaptive Capacity (AC) to climate change, as it ensures the
participation, transparency, access to information and trust between the actors involved. Thus, the
promotion of AC to climate change across governance has a central tool in seeking to maximize
strategies for society as a whole. However, it’s been observed that the initiatives are not considering
the whole complexity that the theme is requiring, most of the parts involved are only discussing
about reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases, forgetting to consider other factors such as urban
planning, basic infrastructure, high risk areas and etc. Therefore, the proposal of this research is to
develop a tool that inserts the governance model needed into the adaptation required, in regards to
the climate changes mentioned, in order to subsidize integrated public politics for the city of Sao
Paulo (SP). This paper presents the first stage of the project which is the diagnostic phase which aims
to compare the municipal political landscape of SP to the theoretical framework of governance for
urban climate change adaptation. The results showed, in general, that governance although often
quoted in practice is only limited by the administrative structure, such as the establishment of
technical working groups. The analysis shows that there is a need to invest in the fields of
information, monitor and integration with other sectoral policies in order to ensure greater AC of the
municipality to climate change.

12-16 May 2014
FROM ISLANDS OF SUCCESS TO A SEA OF CHANGE: MOVING BEYOND CONTEXT-

SPECIFIC TOOLS AND LOCAL CASE STUDIES INTO SCALABLE ADAPTATION
Marie-Caroline Badjeck (1) *; Mary-Ann Wilson (1); Jennifer Ardiel (1)

Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Ottawa Ontario, Canada (1)
contact: mbadjeck@nrcan.gc.ca
Abstract
Managing climate change impacts and opportunities often involves dealing with a high level of
uncertainty and complex information. Adaptation tools facilitate the interpretation of different types
of information and provide a step-wise, generic approach to assess risks and opportunities from a
changing climate. They can be used for a variety of purposes, from a high-level review of risks and
opportunities, to detailed planning or preparation of a business case for adaptation. Complementarily,
case studies provide learning and knowledge exchange opportunities by demonstrating how
communities, government departments and agencies, non-governmental organizations and industry
are planning or implementing adaptation actions. In Canada, adaptation case studies and tools are
increasingly being developed by different actors to assess risks and plan adaptation to a changing
climate in a particular sector or region. One of the challenges now is to expand the impact of these
localized, sector specific investments.This paper offers a range of insights on how to extend and
disseminate the results, expertise and lessons learnt from adaptation case studies, and increase the
uptake and usage of tools across regions and sectors. First, the authors take a brief look at the suite of
adaptation tools and case studies developed in the last five years in Canada. Then, drawing on the
experience of practitionners' engaged in the national Adaptation Platform and the Regional
Adaptation Collaboratives (RACs), the papers analyses through the lenses of diffusion of
innovations theory strategies for scaling up and spreading across sectors and regions tools and
lessons learned from case studies. For instance, recent cross-regional collaboration between the
Atlantic and British Columbia RACs resulted in a "Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer", a guidance
document discussing legislative and policy tools developed by various projects on both Canada's
Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The guidance is a toolkit local governments have at their disposal to
adapt to sea level rise, allowing users to adapt and replicate tools according to their needs and
context. The Canadian experience presented in this paper illustrates the complexities and enabling
factors associated with increasing the diffusion of innovative practices and the uptake of tools in
order to generate impact at scale.

12-16 May 2014
INVESTIGACIÓN Y DESARROLLO PARTICIPATIVO DE PLANES DE INVERSIÓN Y

ADAPTACIÓN AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO (ALTIPLANO CENTRAL BOLIVIANO)
Paula Pacheco (1) *; Ana Lía Gonzáles (1)

Abstract
En Bolivia, tres millones y medio de habitantes rurales viven en ecosistemas de altura de valles y
altiplano superiores a los 2.500 msnm; este hecho es un factor de notables consecuencias
socioeconómicas y ambientales. Las comunidades de la cuenca de los ríos Mauri y Desaguadero
perteneciente al Sistema Hídrico binacional TDPS (Titicaca, río Desaguadero, Salar de Coipasa y
lago Poopó), están siendo afectados por inundaciones recurrentes y sequías prolongadas cuya
incidencia sería mayor en escenarios de cambio climático. Por esta razón los municipios tienen una
necesidad de prepararse ante los impactos de cambio climático a través de la construcción
participativa de planes de adaptación.En la construcción de planes de adaptación al cambio
climático, se realiza el análisis de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático a nivel local, evaluando los
impactos que genera este fenómeno sobre la vida de los habitantes y sus principales actividades
productivas. La investigación hidrológica, climática y socioeconómica es parte de este análisis.
Paralelamente y conforme se van generando conocimientos y cumpliendo los objetivos de
investigación, se transfiere información a los municipios que componen la cuenca, para que ésta sea
insumo para los Planes de Desarrollo Municipal incluyendo así el enfoque de adaptación.En mesas
de concertación público social, lideradas por instituciones del Estado encargadas del desarrollo de los
temas de cuencas hidrográficas y medio ambiente (Ministerio de Medio ambiente y agua,
Viceministerio de Recursos Hídricos y Riego), con la participación de tomadores de decisión como
las Gobernaciones Departamentales de los dos departamentos en los que se encuentra la cuenca (La
Paz y Oruro) y representantes de gobiernos municipales; organizaciones sociales y actores claves en
el uso y gestión del agua y su relación con la adaptación; se discuten problemáticas regionales y se
buscan las mejores soluciones en cuanto a innovaciones tecnológicas, infraestructura, mejores
prácticas de uso de agua y así finalmente se construye un Plan de Adaptación al cambio climático de
la cuenca Mauri y Desaguadero. La construcción de un modelo de planificación a nivel regional, con
información de la problemática local y la participación de entes de gobierno y representación social;
es un buen insumo para la discusión, planificación y aplicación de planes similares, pero también es
útil para el planteamiento de políticas nacionales en adaptación al cambio climático.

12-16 May 2014
DRYLANDS, PASTORALISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: ENABLING AUTONOMOUS

ADAPTATION IN KENYA.
Julliet Ogubi (1) *; Joseph Mbatha (1); Yobo Rutin (1)

Centre for Minority Rights Development, Nairobi, Kenya (1)
contact: jogubi@gmail.com
Abstract
About 90% of Kenya is covered by arid and semi arid areas (drylands) which contribute significantly
to the national economy and food security. For example, tourism, a major foreign exchange earner
contributes about 15% of Kenya’s GDP and 92% of the National Parks are predominantly located in
drylands. Kenyan drylands also harbour the largest livestock populations supplying food and other
livestock products. It is estimated that the drylands store about 34% of the global CO2 stock, a
service worthy approximately $7 per hectare. However, these drylands are threatened by land
fragmentation; rapid population growth; poverty and associated degradation and destruction of
fragile resources. The projected higher temperatures, intensifying rains and increasingly frequent
extreme weather events associated with climate variability and change, will exacerbate the above
problems. In addition, the drylands have under-utilized development potential and the dominant land
use type- pastoralism – has unique autonomous adaptive characteristics that should be encouraged,
strengthened and supported rather than providing adaptation strategies for them. Pastoralists are also
increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change due to policies incompatible with the
unique needs of the drylands. In addition, there is inadequate investment in the development of these
drylands. There is therefore need to review policies, increase investment and support for pastoralism
as a priority adaptation route in drylands of Kenya. Here, we describe three main areas of
intervention that could help encourage, strengthen and support autonomous adaptation among the
pastoralists, namely: 1) Resource governance which advocates for increased political representation
and participation of pastoralist groups in making adaptation policies and legislation. This has been
done through formation of Pastoralist Parliamentary Group (PPG) and Pastoralist County Governors
Forum (PCGF) and an annual Kenya Pastoralists Week; 2) Enhancing pastoralists’ access to markets,
improving bargaining power and awareness of product value and access to credit suitable for the
drylands, livestock insurance and cash or asset-based assistance during severe climate effects
(drought and floods); 3) Capacity building aimed at increasing skills and knowledge of pastoralists to
strengthen mitigation and enhance adaptation to climate change and options for diversification. The
proposed intervention areas are expected to increase resilience of pastoral communities, strengthen
the inherent autonomous adaptive capacities and reduce their vulnerability to impacts of climate
change and sustain their livelihoods.

12-16 May 2014
SOCIAL TECHNOLOGIES IN THE SEMIARID REGION OF BAHIA AND THE

PROMOTION OF SYNERGIES BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Andréa Ventura (1) *; Luz Fernández (2); José Célio Andrade (1)
Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil (1)
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Madrid, Spain (2)
contact: andreaventurassa@gmail.com
Abstract
Historically, global efforts at dealing with climate change have narrowly focused on mitigation.
However, recent studies suggest that mitigation and adaptation efforts need to be appropriately
combined with and linked to sustainable development of vulnerable communities. In a critical phase
for climate negotiations, this study aims to present evidence from local strategies to address climate
change that can be eventually "upscaled" and permeate the post-2012 strategy. This research is
focused on the Bahian semiarid region characterized by frequent and severe droughts, with strong
impacts on food production, specially the family subsistence one. For centuries, local populations in
this region have been testing ways to adapt their lives and production systems to the climate reality.
Since the 1990's, with support of local organizations, regional universities and state government,
these population have been advocating for a new development strategy, called "coexistence with the
semiarid region", using Social Technologies as a way to reach effective solutions that permit climate
adaptation and sustainable development, with less carbon emission. Based on empirical analysis of
10 case studies, the research analyses local knowledge systems that have invented, tested, adapted,
and experienced new ways of dealing with the drought and the scarcity of water. Some of the
identified local strategies, such as the integration of food and energy crops and water storage
techniques could be replicable in other semiarid regions around the world.

12-16 May 2014
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: A CASE

STUDY IN A RURAL COMMUNITY
LUIZ PRIORI (1) *; VALDEMIR FERREIRA DA SILVA (1)

FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF PERNAMBUCO, RECIFE, PERNAMBUCO, Brazil (1)
contact: luizpriori@gmail.com
Abstract
This article presents the results of a study on the vulnerabilities of a rural community in the semi-arid
area of the State of Pernambuco, with the aim of improving the adaptive capacity required for
coexistence with the natural phenomenon of drought caused by the annually prolonged dry season,
which is exacerbated by climate change in region. The semi-arid region comprises an area of
969,589.40 km², which corresponds to approximately 60% of the territory of the Brazilian Northeast
region. This area is characterized by an uneven distribution of rainfall, which causes periods of
prolonged drought resulting in a negative water balance. It is one of the most vulnerable areas to
future climate change, with high risks of climate variability, evolving semi-arid to arid climates and,
subsequently, the desertification of large tracts of land. This study is being conducted in the rural
community of Nossa Senhora das Graças, located in the Gravatá municipality, in the State of
Pernambuco, Brazil. This community occupies an area of approximately 340 hectares, divided into
31 plots plus a conservation area whose vegetation is hiperxerofila savanna. Each parcel of land of
10 acres is occupied by a family unit, which fully or partially survives on subsistence farming. The
rainy season is concentrated between the months of May and June and the amount of water available
for agriculture is insufficient for most of the year. Due to frequent periods of drought and lack of
technology for the capitation of water in large quantities, rain-irrigated agriculture is undertaken
empirically. The main crops cultivated in the region are: beans, corn and palm, all of which are
grown without crop rotation. Each growing cycle is undertaken at about the same time every year,
which negatively affects the agricultural quality of the soil (physical, chemical and biological) and
thereby reduces productivity. The solid waste generation per household is approximately 30 kg
monthly, generating a total amount of 900 kg in the community per month. However, this entire
residue is burned. The demand for water for domestic use in the community is 2m³ per family unit
per month. It can be concluded that the families in this rural community need to use natural resources
which are already over-exploited for the production of food through empirically performed
subsistence agriculture. This need to use scarce hydric resources tends to corroborate with the
increase, over time, in the environmental vulnerability of the region.

12-16 May 2014
LIVING WITH DROUGHT IN THE BRAZILIAN SEMIARID LANDS
José Cirilo (1); Alfredo Ribeiro Neto (2) *; Suzana Montenegro (2); Christopher Scott (3)
Federal University of Pernambuco, Caruaru, Pernambuco, Brazil (1)
Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil (2)
University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, Brazil (3)
contact: ribeiront@gmail.com
Abstract
Brazil has one of the most populated semi-arid regions of the planet. The average annual rainfall
(about 600 mm) is not the lowest among the semiarid regions of the world. However, some physical
and climatic characteristics make it more difficult to live with drought: high rate of potential
evapotranspiration, about 2500 mm per year, which represents great loss of water accumulated in
reservoirs; spatial and temporal irregularity of the rainfall regime; and a very low capacity to
accumulate water in the soil, which mainly consists of crystalline rocks. In the history of the region
there was a phase, when small surface reservoirs were a distributed way of ensuring water security.
Due to evaporation, these reservoirs dry up every year and do not solve the problem. There are few
large reservoirs with a capacity for multi-annual regularization. Due to the irregularity of
precipitation and high evaporation, these reservoirs have low water yield, compared to reservoirs of
the same size in other regions. Given this, living with the Brazilian semiarid conditions requires a
combination of diverse solutions in an integrated manner: construction and use of cisterns for human
supply in dispersed population and desalination of water drawn from wells; family agriculture with
short harvesting cycle, to take advantage of the water of surface reservoirs before losses by
evaporation; construction and use of reservoirs with lower water surface; and even underground
dams; integration of large water sources using large main water systems to supply the cities and for
development of irrigated agriculture; use of water saving technologies in agriculture, industry and
domestic use; and reuse of wastewater.The main rivers of the Brazilian semiarid land, mainly São
Francisco river, are principally used for power generation. At the Hoover Dam , which is built on the
Colorado River in the United States, power generation is only the 5th priority. Considering the
growing regional demand to meet the needs of economic, industrial development and especially food
production and the growth of cities, water in the coming decades should be used for the latter
purposes. In the medium term, it is essential to diversify sources of energy, especially with expansion
of wind and solar power generation to reduce dependence on hydroelectricity and thereby allocate
scarce water for food production and urban growth.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO DROUGHTS IN THE BRAZILIAN

NORTHEAST: IS THERE ANYTHING NEW?
Diego Lindoso (1,2) *; Flávio Eiró (3); Cristine Viana (1,2); Stéphanie Nasuti (1,2); Marcel Bursztyn
(1,2); Saulo Rodrigues-Filho (1,2)
Center for Sustainable Development - University of Brasilia (CDS/UnB), Brasilia, Brazil (1)
Centre Maurice Halbwachs (CNRS-ENS-EHESS), Paris, France (3)
Abstract
Drought is both a natural phenomenon and a social issue. From a climatological point of view, it can
be defined as rainfall deficit. However, from a human point of view, it expresses the interaction of
socioeconomic factors with the climate vector.With this in mind, the network "Climate Change and
Regional Development" studied how smallholder farmers suffered adverse effects and how they
responded to the extreme drought that occurred in 2012 in the Brazilian semiarid
region.MethodologyIn order to assess the effects of the drought of 2012, 250 socio-economic and
perception questionnaires were applied in the Cariri region (south of the State of Ceará) and 30
qualitative interviews were realized with smallholder farmers and institutional actors. Academic
literature and narratives of the elderly turned possible to compare the current impacts and responses
of the 2012 drought with other extreme droughts of the past.ResultsThe results point that the range of
adaptive has undergone profound transformations. Chronic starvation, poverty, mass migration,
looting of the grocery stores and consumption of inappropriate products (toxic foods or brackish
water) were not recorded or were uncommon in 2012, contrary to what was observed during severe
droughts until the end of the last century.Social policies and emergency actions of the State are the
main factors that helped reduce the impacts on humans systems in years of extreme drought.
However, mortality of livestock remains high, and crops losses are often.We classified the map of
public policies according to adaptive types.Altogether, the human dimension of drought has become
milder. However, its effect on agriculture and cattle rising remains very similar to what was observed
during the droughts of the twentieth century. .ConclusionsGovernment action is not sufficient to
effectively reduce the vulnerabilities of production systems. From an adaptive point of view, the
political-institutional framework advanced. at household level, reducing vulnerability in the human
dimensions (water safety, food safety and income safety). However, policies for supporting
prevention in the production systems are still deficient.

12-16 May 2014
THEORETICAL ESTIMATION OF THE LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVEL (LCL) FOR

A RISING AIR PARCEL IN ORDER TO ENHANCE THE CLOUDS SEEDING
PROCEDURES IN PERIODS OF LOW RAIN INCIDENCE
Erith Muñoz (1,2) *; Rafael Mundaray (1); Carlos Estrella (2)

Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología, Caracas, Venezuela (1)
Instituto Espacial Ecuatoriano, Quito, Ecuador (2)
contact: erith7@gmail.com
Abstract
An alternative to solve problems related to periods of drought due to rainfall deficit is to increase
rain by artificial methodologies that could be achieved by stimulation of cloud formation from the
ground or atmosphere directly. In the case of cloud seeding from the atmosphere, a fairly used
methodology consists in the bombing of external chemical agents that facilitate the processes of
nucleation and condensation of water vapor in cloud droplets, however this method requires a high
knowledge about the thermodynamical state of the vertical column of the atmosphere, as well as
considering the microphysical processes involved in the formation of convective clouds. In this
context, according to the definition of Lifting Condensation Level (LCL), from the microphysical
point of view, the LCL height is optimal for the artificial formation of convective clouds, and for this
reason in this work a methodology for the estimation of the LCL height is presented.

12-16 May 2014
SCIENCE-POLICY DIALOGUE AND ADAPTATION: FACING SHORT, MEDIUM AND

LONG TERM SCENARIOS IN MENDOZA, ARGENTINA
Facundo Martín (1) *; Elma Montaña (2); Paula Mussetta (3); Mario Salomón (4); Christopher Scott
(5)
National University of Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina (1)
Inter American Institute for Global Change Research, Montevideo, Uruguay (2)
National Council for Scientific and Technical Research, Mendoza, Argentina (3)
Departamento General de Irrigación, Mendoza, Argentina (4)
University of Arizona, Arizona, USA (5)
contact: fdmartingarcia@gmail.com
Abstract
In arid and semi-arid regions, adaptation to global environmental change faces urgent challenges
relating both to interdisciplinary research and science-policy dialogues. It is not only
hydroclimatological changes but also social and economic processes water resource consuming and
political-institutional issues that unfold in the short, medium and long terms, with impacts and
possibilities still insufficiently explored. Based in the case of Mendoza, in central-western Argentina,
this paper gathers scientists and policy makers in accounting for joint long-term phenomena, such as
climatic aridity, medium-term ones such as institutional and public policies and acute situations as
the extreme hydrological drought that have being experienced in Mendoza since 2010 leading to the
declaration of a water crisis. On this current scenario we identify ecosystemic and social exposures
and specific risks associated to them for finally advance in a science-policy dialogue that enables a
diagnose of the adaptive capacities and promotes future adaptation responses to be adopted for
achieving water security.

12-16 May 2014
SUSTAINING PEOPLE IN DRYLAND ECOSYSTEM: ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE

OF BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIAL LANDSCAPES OF CAATINGA ECOSYSTEM AT
PERNAMBUCO STATE.
Patricia Pinho (1) *; Jean Pierre Ometto (1); Romulo Meneses (2); Karina Guedes (2)
INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil (1)
UFPE, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil (2)
contact: patricia.pinho@inpe.br
Abstract
The Northeast region in Brazil is characterized by a semi –arid climate, with a high spatial and
temporal precipitation patterns variation and high concentration of population in costal and
hinterland. Both natural and anthropogenic related global climate change has been contributing to a
drier climate with impacts on the natural and social systems. The extreme events is expected to
impact almost 50 million people that live on the NE region. In the coastal zone, floods impact urban
centers; in the hinterland, increased climatic variability over the past century have lead to dramatic
droughts, greatly impacting caatinga ecosystem and the livelihood options of its population. In this
work, we adapt the Institutional Analysis and Development framework Ostrom (1990) coupled with
the ‘ desert syndrome framework” (Stafford Smith 2007) for the caatinga coupled socio-ecological
dynamic practices under climatic variability and uncertainty in two municipalities at Pernambuco
State. We detect that region are challenged by natural resources and water scarcity, lack of livelihood
options, distance from governance centers, and widespread poverty. Although the region has been
the focus of the largest cash transfer scheme from Federal government to reduce poverty rates, our
analysis shows the extent that these programme are really delivering social development. Moreover,
the agenda for sustainability is marginal in the policy domain and management of natural resources
is not a concept embraced by its inhabitants. Caatinga coupled socio-ecological system have received
less attention from scientists and policy makers compared to Amazonia, Cerrado and Atlantic Forest.
By elucidating how people approach, manage and optimize its scarce resources to cope with
uncertainty, we show that environmental and social development policies are central to local
people’s wellbeing and ecosystem sustainability. In caatinga, the institutional arrangements
operating are key mediators to adaptive capacity, and resilience for advancing the socio-
environmental agenda for ecosystem quality and social wellbeing.

12-16 May 2014
THE ALLOCATION OF INTERNATIONAL ADAPTATION FUNDING
Romain Weikmans (1) *

Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (1)
contact: romain.weikmans@ulb.ac.be
Abstract
The amount of adaptation funding that a particular country receives is the sum of the independent
decisions of a large number of donors on how they allocate their financial assistance. With regards to
traditional development aid, it is often argued that the aggregate outcome of individual and relatively
independent donor decisions may lead to a sub-optimal distribution of aid, with some countries
receiving large amounts of money and others too little. This paper seeks to shed light on how this
problem appears in the context of international adaptation finance.A review of the normative
literature on adaptation funding allocation reveals that there is considerable debate as to what a
desirable allocation might be. Suggested approaches fall broadly into three categories: needs (often
coins as a level of vulnerability), adaptation-efficiency, and equal-opportunity based allocations.
While there is some consensus on the fact that the allocation of adaptation funding should reflect
countries’ needs as well as their “absorptive capacity”, there is no agreement on the relative weights
that needs and performance should receive in funding allocations.Turning to the actual pattern of
adaptation funding allocation, we then describe the specific allocation approaches of some
multilateral channels of the emerging landscape of adaptation finance (e.g., the Pilot Program for
Climate Resilience and the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto Protocol, among others). We argue that it
is also important – but much more difficult – to capture the role of other potential determinants such
as donor country interests and country specific factors to understand actual allocation decisions,
particularly those of bilateral donors. We show that some countries which are considered as
chronically under-aided with regards to general official development aid could be considered as
over-aided regarding adaptation funding. These findings call for more research to explain how some
countries succeed in attracting significant amounts of adaptation money and why some recipient
countries end up with little international resources to adapt to climate change.

12-16 May 2014
ECONOMIC AND NON-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN EUROPE -

THE PESETA-II STUDY
Juan Carlos Ciscar (2); Frank Raes (1) *

Institute for Environment and Sustainability - Joint Research Centre (JRC) - European Commission, Ispra, Lombardy, Italy (1)
Institute for Prospective Technology Studies - Joint Research Centre (JRC) - European Commission, Seville, Andalusia, Spain (2)
contact: frank.raes@jrc.ec.europa.eu
Abstract
It is widely accepted that effective adaptation will develop through collaboration and exchange of
knowledge and experiences between scientists on the one hand and practitioners at all levels from
global to local, on the other. The European Union strategy for adaptation to climate change (1),
launched in April 2013 takes that challenge, by explicitly asking for broadening the knowledge base
re. climate change impacts and by mainstreaming adaptation into ongoing policies in a range of
sectors. In this paper we evaluate the potential to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the
effectiveness of mainstreaming. A review will be given of EU wide sectorial policies, their degree of
implementation and how they can be relevant for adaptation. Initial focus is on water, agriculture and
disaster risk reduction policies. The paper will further reflect on the potential for quantitative
assessments, using climate change scenarios' and impact modeling of sectorial policies, both in
economic and non-economic terms, as is being pioneered in JRC's integrated study PESETA (2)(1)
European Commission: An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, 2013(2) Ciscar J.-C.. et al.
Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe, PNAS, 108, 2678-2683 , 20111

12-16 May 2014
FROM REGIONAL TO GLOBAL: ADAPTATION IN GERMANY AND INTERNATIONAL

EXCHANGE
Esther Chrischilles (1) *; Jennifer Striebeck (1); Hubertus Bardt (1)

Abstract
Adaptation to climate change is acknowledged as a challenge, which focuses on the regional or local
scale. Nevertheless, adaptation always has a global dimension, which was subject of several research
and network activities carried out in KLIMZUG. KLIMZUG (Managing Climate Change in the
Regions for the Future) is one of the largest funding projects regarding adaptation in Germany. The
aim of the funding activity is to establish regional cooperation networks between science, business
and municipalities in order to manage climate change impacts. Despite its regional focus, it became
clear, that international linkage of national adaptation measures involves different aspects:Local
Cooperation:Some of the regional KLIMZUG-Networks established an active exchange with
international partner regions, which are facing similar challenges, for example with coastal zones of
Maryland and North Carolina (USA). The aim was not only to make adaptation knowledge generated
in Germany internationally available but also to learn from each other. Experiences show, that
international cooperation can help to promote adaptation activities especially within local
administrations. It enables decision makers to think outside of political, administrative or cultural
structures and to find new approaches of problem-solving. Thus, global cooperation in adaptation
triggers mutual advantages and is not at least a question of global responsibility and effective
research funding. Economic Interdependence:In the different KLIMZUG-projects it became obvious
that strategies towards adaptation to climate change cannot be limited to national or regional borders.
This became especially clear by considering the indirect impact of climate change in economic
terms. Indirect impacts might arise due to interruptions in supply chains or they may even offer new
opportunities regarding new sales markets. Several studies focusing on business and economic
interdependences were conducted in the frameworks of KLIMZUG. In Germany especially larger
enterprises start to develop adaptation strategies; even tough adaptation in the private sector is,
compared to the public sector, less prominent. However, the adaptation measures developed by
private companies also need to become visible on an international level, as they may serve as role
models.

12-16 May 2014
AGUASCAPES - A COMPARATIVE BASIN ASSESSMENT FOR THE ARID AMERICAS
Francisco Meza (1,2) *; Christopher Scott (3); Melanie Oertel (1,2)

Departamento de Ecosistemas y Medioambiente, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy / School of Geography & Development, Tucson, USA (3)
contact: moertel@uc.cl
Abstract
Aguascapes is an international and interdisciplinary research project funded by the IAI. It is about
climate variability and climate change in the Arid Americas. Participating countries are Argentina,
Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Peru and the United States of America. Each country considers in the frame of
the project at least one river basin; hence the project investigates up to 12 river basins in arid regions
of the Americans. The scientific approach for the project is a driver-response model. We believe that
integrated research and strong science-policy dialogues are necessary conditions to strength water
security. The project focuses thereby on three specific objectives: 1) River-Basin assessment by
linking biophysical monitoring with social-institutional analyses of current conditions and
projections/ modeling of future scenarios, 2) Document human and ecosystem exposures to hydro-
ecological and globalization processes, thereby addressing specific risks and strengthening river-
basin resilience and 3) Conduct policy dialogues to diagnose current adaptive capacity and promote
the feasibility of future adaptation outcomes leading to enhanced water security.One of the first
outcomes of this project will be a drought assessment for all river basins carried out with the
Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Based on this preliminary result regional
vulnerabilities can be identified. Common vulnerabilities among the river basins will serve as a
baseline for an adaptation-knowledge-exchange to contribute to the water security in the Arid
Americas; with a focus on global changes and regional challenges.In the oral presentation we will
focus on two topics. One will be the presentation of the project approach and the related network of
Aguascapes and to give in this way an example about transboundary networks in practice. The
second topic is the presentation of the outcome of the SPEI analysis carried out and therefore can
serve as an overview about the drought conditions in the Arid Americas.

12-16 May 2014
A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MECHANISMS FOR

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE IMPACT: WITH PRIMARY ATTENTION ON HOW TO
PRIORITIZE COUNTRIES/ PROJECTS
Izumi Kubota (1) *

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (1)
contact: izumi@nies.go.jp
Abstract
Assistance for adaptation to climate change in developing countries is one of the key elements in a
post-2020 framework on climate change. We analyzed how the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience
(PPCR) and the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol select the target countries/projects to
have some implications for future adaptation finance mechanisms concerning the way of prioritizing
them.We clarified that the recipient countries of the Adaptation Fund were not recognized as
“vulnerable countries”, though it aimed to assist developing country Parties that are particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change to meet the costs of adaptation. The Green
Climate Fund needs to include PPCR-type funding system, as efficiency and equity need to be
balanced in the fund.

12-16 May 2014
NETWORKED KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS IN THE ARID AMERICAS AND BEYOND
Christopher Scott (1) *; Francisco Meza (2); Facundo Martin (3); Paula Mussetta (3); Bram Willems
(4); Alfredo Ribeiro (5); Nicolás Pineda (6); Rolando Díaz (6); Willem van Leeuwen ()
University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA (1)
Pontificia Universidad Católica, Santiago, Chile (2)
Universidad Nacional Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina (3)
Universidad Nacional Mayor San Marcos, Lima, Peru (4)
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil (5)
El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico (6)
contact: cascott@email.arizona.edu
Abstract
Bridging knowledge systems across disciplinary divides and the science-policy chasm has sparked
new interest in knowledge systems that are centered on networks and their application across a range
of climate and global-change adaptation challenges. Bringing together ‘communities of practice’
(researchers from physical and social science training as well as agency decision-makers and civil
society organizations) is seen as a high-potential way forward in addressing such problems as water
scarcity, ecosystem service degradation, and the more nebulous but nevertheless crucial ‘quality of
life’ and ‘sustainability’ goals. In this presentation we will advance the concept of networks-of-
networks, an innovative approach that takes locational specificity and project-oriented science-policy
dialogues to a new level – that is, an emerging approach that seeks generic relevance and
applicability across a range of contexts. As case examples of ‘networked knowledge’ we present the
AQUASEC Center of Excellence for Water Security, which focuses on societal and ecosystem water
management in the arid Americas, specifically central Chile and Argentina, coastal Peru, northeast
Brazil, northwest Mexico, and southwest United States. Linked to this is a more recent network to
address water security in southern Africa, southern Asia, Europe, and the arid Americas. These
broad-based and transdisciplinary initiatives aim to advance adaptive management via collaborative
assessment of water insecurity and the application of tangible science and policy responses to global-
change challenges.

12-16 May 2014
APPLICATIONS OF MULTI SCALE REMOTELY SENSED PUBLIC DATA FOR LAND

AND WATER USE CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
Willem van Leeuwen (1) *; Kyle Hartfield (1); Roy Petrakis (1); Christopher Scott (1)
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA (1)
contact: leeuw@email.arizona.edu
Abstract
To characterize and assess ecosystem function, structure, and goods and services for a particular
region, scales and scaling rules should conform to the complex temporal, spatial and organizational
factors that are inherent to the dryland ecosystems under consideration. Scale here refers to the
resolution and extent of spatial, temporal and organizational characteristics that govern the
interactions among biosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, lithosphere and anthroposphere. The main
goal of this research is to examine the relationships between land cover/use and evapotranspiration
data to assess water use and adaptations related to land management and climate impacts in selected
arid regions of the Americas. A nested observation and modeling framework is desirable to develop
new, and use existing, land cover and land use data/products at multiple spatial and temporal scales
to assess historical and ongoing landscape change and its impact on water use. Multiple public data
sources can be integrated to monitor and assess land surface dynamics and interaction between
phenology, land cover and land use, woody cover and water use. We present a multi-dimensional
data analysis approach taking advantage of the vast array of available remotely sensed data
(Multispectral, Thermal and LiDAR) that range from coarse to fine spatial resolution, and also
provide historical time series data that vary in acquisition frequency. Land surface response variables
and changes are derived and validated based on a nested spatial and temporal sampling and analysis
approach. We show how integration and synergistic use of multiple data sets can capture the spatial
distribution of seasonal and interannual land surface responses and water use. Application of these
techniques to the Arizona-Sonora region of Western North America is planned for replication in the
Central Andes and Northeast Brazil.

12-16 May 2014
MULTI-NATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

DRIVERS, LIMITS AND IMPLICATIONS
Alina Averchenkova (1) *; Florence Crick (1); Adriana Kocornik-Mina (1); Hayley Leck (1); Swenja
Surminski (1)
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London,
UK (1)
contact: h.leck@lse.ac.uk
Abstract
A growing paradigm of ‘engaging the private sector’ is noticeable in all areas of climate risk
management – ranging from official United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) documents to national government responses and expert commentaries. Internationally,
the search for adaptation finance has led to a greater focus on private sector contributions. UNFCCC
is showcasing private sector initiatives, while at national level cash-constrained governments are
looking for ways to utilize private sector efforts to increase societal resilience. However, beyond
some high-level figures, isolated case studies and anecdotes there is no comprehensive evidence base
to understand private sector adaptation. The role and impact of the private sector in promoting
adaptation and, more generally, climate-resilient development is still poorly understood. Given that
any effort to capture the private sector in its entirety is either bound to be very theoretical or overly
generalist, we focus on multinational corporations (MNC) and explore the drivers and implications
of MNC-led adaptation.Building on a comprehensive review of current knowledge on MNC-led
adaptation and a systematic analysis of data from the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and other
sources, the paper develops and applies an innovative analytical framework. Existing evidence of
MNC-led adaptation at a global level is evaluated and the stimuli that trigger action, the responding
action implemented by the company, and the resulting outcome in terms of climate resilience are
identified. The paper prioritizes areas where additional knowledge is essential for understanding the
opportunities and limits of relying on MNC-led adaptation. Wider policy implications are proposed.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION WITHOUT BORDERS? INTRODUCING A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

FOR CONSIDERING THE INDIRECT IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS OF ADAPTATION
Magnus Benzie (1) *

Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden (1)
contact: magnus.benzie@sei-international.org
Abstract
The processes of globalization have created a hyper-connected world in which all countries are to
some extent interdependent. The true scale and nature of any country's adaptation challenge will
therefore be influenced by climate change impacts in other countries, particularly under more
extreme scenarios of +2⁰C and over. Whilst global connectivity is widely acknowledged in general,
existing national adaptation strategies generally fail to acknowledge the international dimension of
climate risks.This paper will introduce a conceptual framework that can be used to consider the
indirect impacts of climate change, meaning impacts that are observed or expected in one place, but
brought about by climate change somewhere else. This framework describes four pathways via
which climate risks are transmitted between places: biophysical, finance, people and trade, in
addition to climate-driven changes to the global security context. The state of knowledge and
evidence on the climate sensitivity of each of these pathways will be presented. Based on original
analysis, literature review, expert interviews and case studies, the paper will also address the
following questions:Why do existing adaptation strategies fail to incorporate international
dimensions of climate risk?What are some of the methodological, governance and political
implications of ‘adaptation without borders'?What is the scope for adaptation initiatives at different
scales, including at transboundary, regional or meso levels, or via multinational private sector or
‘shared-interest' networks?How can adaptation guidance better help to support decision makers in
considering the international dimension of climate risk?How can improved awareness of indirect
impacts be used to motivate greater investments by rich countries in adaptation in developing
countries?How might the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans process address these issues?What
should the research priorities be for filling gaps in the current evidence base on indirect impacts and
adaptation options?

12-16 May 2014
ENHANCING LOCAL ACTIVITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

THROUGH NATIONWIDE RESEARCH PROGRAM IN JAPAN
Nobuo Mimura (1); Satoshi Takewaka (2) *; Shunji Ohta (3); Masatoshi Kamei (4)
Ibaraki University, Mito, Ibaraki, Japan (1)
University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (2)
Waseda University, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan (3)
Remote Sensing Technology Center of Japan, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan (4)
contact: kamei@restec.or.jp
Abstract
The research program on climate change adaptation (RECCA) was initiated in 2010 as a part of the
strategic research program toward low-carbon society funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. With a strong focus on the local adaptation, the RECCA's
purposes are to enhance communication between scientists, policy makers and the society through
the development of techniques for downscaling of climate projections and adaptation
assessment.Given that spatial resolution of the current climate change projection is not high enough
for local adaptation planning, RECCA's top-down approach tries to enhance data downscaling
methods for better spatial resolution in conjunction with data assimilation techniques for reduction of
uncertainty. Adaptation simulation technique for future decision making is also one of RECCA's
focus areas. On the other hand, RECCA tries to grasp the needs and feedbacks from policy makers
and private sectors to update and improve its research plan.RECCA has achieved effective results
and contributed to local governments and communities. For example, the distributed hydrological
model developed by RECCA was applied in the disaster risk management plan in Tokyo. One of
snowy prefectures in Japan relies on snow cover change projection derived by RECCA for impact
assessment on tourism industry. RECCA provides fishing ground forecast information for fishermen
based on the near-term prediction, particularly those who suffered serious damage by the big
earthquake in 2011.However, overall law and policy for climate change adaptation are not matured
yet. Local governments have a difficulty to develop their own policy without national law and
policy. Another challenge is a communication between scientists and policy makers. Scientists are
expected to communicate with policy makers and various stakeholders to develop adaptation plans.
In this paper, we will present both RECCA's scientific achievement and communication with the
society.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND IMPACTS IN THE NORTH COAST OF SÃO

PAULO (BRAZIL): A SOCIO-INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH
Débora M. de Freitas (1) *; Eliane Simões (1); Wilson Cabral de Souza Júnior (1)
Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (1)
Abstract
Humanity has adapted to climatic variations from a long time and concern about global climate
change and its effects has grown, particularly at the local scale where climate variability occurs at a
sharper and faster pace. Globally, climate change has been treated by two interdependent approaches,
mitigation and adaptation. However, mitigation alone is insufficient to prevent societies to suffer
from the effects of climate change; efforts related to adaptation have intensified in order to reduce
climate change risks. Researchers, decision makers and policy makers have been working to identify
necessary tools to better understand human adaptation in the face of current and future climate
change. In this context, the Project RedeLitoral was proposed to generate subsidies for the
consolidation and updating of knowledge about climate change adaptation in coastal systems and
infrastructures, and to contribute to a better understanding of the mitigation and adaptation processes
faced by society to in the north coast of São Paulo. Funded by the Coordination of Improvement of
Higher Personnel Education (CAPES), RedeLitoral (2010-14) has a multidisciplinary approach
covering diverse areas such as physical oceanography, port works, ecological and spatial modelling,
environmental economics, and coastal management. In this presentation, we will focus our
discussion on the social and political variables and institutional arrangements of coastal governance
as critical aspects in the development of adaptive capacity. We use institutional diagnosis and social
network analysis to investigate the contextual factors of coastal governance, and to map the social
relationships that guide coastal decisions. We hypothesise that, in the absence of institutional
arrangements for good governance, systems' ability to use natural resources for adaptation purposes
is very limited. Results indicate that the coastal management process in the north coast of São Paulo
is under intense rearrangement with changes in the ecological-economic zoning, creation of new and
expansion of existing marine protected areas. We suggest that the insights gained from this study can
benefit coastal decision making and planning in addressing coastal adaptation processes.

12-16 May 2014
OF CLOUDS AND CLOCKS: AN APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF UNCERTAINTY

IN LOCAL SCALE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN IRELAND
Stefan Gray (1) *; Barry O'Dwyer (1); Steven Gray (2); Cathal O'Mahony (1); Jeremy Gault (1)
University College Cork, Cork, Ireland (1)
University of Massachusetts, Boston, USA (2)
contact: s.gray@ucc.ie
Abstract
Karl Popper described complex systems as ranging from unpredictable, highly uncertain ‘clouds’ to
rigidly structured and consistent ‘clocks’. Modern societies view all complex problems as clockwork,
requiring only analytical deconstruction to enable certainty in the prediction of a system’s behaviour.
Uncertainty thus represents failure, as resulting from perceived shortcomings in the analytical
method employed. However, Popper’s contention that many complex systems may instead be
analogous to clouds places uncertainty at their core, their behaviour emerging as a result of
stochasticism rather than simple linear mechanics. In the context of on-the-ground local authority
decision-making in Ireland, where adaptation decisions must be taken, there is little scope for
esoteric discussions of cloudlike or clockwork systemic behaviour. Yet attempts by the research
community to integrate the range of impacts climate change may carry within local planning
processes have foundered on the uncertainties surrounding climate system behaviour, with plan
making at local level typically reverting to unyielding clockwork rather than flexible cloudiness. To
allow rigidly deterministic planning processes at the local scale integrate the complexity and
uncertainty inherent to climate change adaptation, we have developed and employed a clockwork
interface to the analysis of what are cloudlike social-ecological systems. The analytical interface, a
web-based tool called Ireland’s Adaptive Social-Ecological Systems Simulator (iAsess), uses
structured, semi-quantitative fuzzy-logic concept modelling. This approach allows local level
planners to model the system they must adapt using simple, linear rules of causality – in line with
existing planning practices and understandings. However, the subsequent behaviour of the modelled
system when forced under simple scenarios of climate and socioeconomic change is dynamic,
variable and often surprising. This provides crucial insight for local scale planners regarding the
potential for uncertain outcomes to emerge even from well-known and parameterised system
relationships that are familiar to them, serving to broaden local perspectives about the nature of
certainty in the management of complex adaptive systems, and providing invaluable entry points for
the introduction of climate change as an adaptive challenge to be addressed in concert with many
other, equally uncertain, cloudlike system issues.

12-16 May 2014
GREEN GROWTH FOR WHOM? ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL INCLUSION IN CLIMATE

CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES OF SEOUL CITY, SOUTH KOREA
Donna Yoo (1) *

University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia (1)
contact: donna.yoo@student.unsw.edu.au
Abstract
The notion of ‘Green Growth’ (GG) emerged as a new development paradigm in the post-
Millennium Development Goal era to foster economic growth while ensuring climatic and
environmental sustainability. GG is embraced by many governments as a policy guide to address
climate change risks and promote more effective adaptation strategies. However, GG is criticised for
its overly top-down approach, driven by corporate interests with vested political support, and
sidelining the environmental aspects. Moreover, GG policy-making and implementation often
ignores the existing social diversity of community livelihoods at the local level. An important
question to ask is whether and how GG as a strategy addresses the issue of social inclusion in climate
change adaptation at the local government level. This paper aims to investigate this question with a
case study of Seoul City Government in South Korea. First, the research analyses the historical shift
of strategies and plans of the city government vis-à-vis the change in national policies to identify
social inclusion issues. Second, a mapping of community perceptions on the outcome of the climate
adaptation plans in two communities of contrasting socio-economic background. Third, the paper
provides a way forward - an outline of how social inclusion outcomes can be improved at city
government’s climate change adaptation plans and strategies. In conclusion, the paper highlights the
need for transformative thinking to promote and pursue for social inclusion at the local government
level. This thinking requires reframing relationships among key stakeholders of GG, viz. local and
national governments, local communities, civil societies and private sector. Also needed for the
required transformation is to go beyond innovation and structural changes to include democratisation
of the development governance and community participation in the decision-making process.

12-16 May 2014
INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL AND ADAPTATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON:

INSTITUTIONAL AND PUBLIC POLICIES ANALYSIS OF (FAMILY FARMING)
VULNERABILITY REDUCING IN ACRE
Juliana Dalboni Rocha (1); Diego Lindoso (1) *; Flávio Eiró (2); Marcel Bursztyn (1)
Center for Sustainable Development, University of Brasilia (CDS/UnB), Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil (1)
Center Maurice Halbwachs (CNRS-ENS-EHESS), Paris, France (2)
contact: dalboni.unb@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper discusses the adaptive capacity of family farming in the state of Acre via institutional and
policies qualitative analysis in the region of study. The coverage area of the study includes the
municipalities of Rio Branco (state capital) and Brasiléia (border with Bolivia), including Xapurí and
Epitaciolândia, in the southeastern state.The public policies related to reducing vulnerabilities were
taken in account, especially those that contemplates the increasing of adaptive capacity of farmers in
Amazonia, having Acre as their focus. The discussion of the collected data (via field research and
literature review) results in the proposal of guidelines for climate change adaptation policies.The
institutional framework of the studied territory includes federal, state and local governmental and
non-governmental institutions. These organizations were selected because of their actions linked to
land use and occupation, which favor or not the adaptive capacity of family farmers to possible
climate changes. The interviews contemplated multiple scales (local, state and federal), in order to
obtain a minimum comprehension of the situation of institutions working in the local/ regional
level.The scenario of adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the region of study points to the need to
recognize that there are already public policies able to increase adaptive capacity and reduce
vulnerability of farmers policies. However, many arrives via institutionally fragile structures, and
show little political power and technical execution.Despite the growing issue of climate change at the
state and local agendas - since 2005 , when Acre suffered a extreme drought event - it requires an
integration of intersectoral actions that would be able to coordinate responses at different levels of
government. The subject also requires the incorporation of long-term vision and planning, a
challenge in the Brazilian political practice.The proposed guidelines have been organized into three
axes of policies to be intensified against major vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies found: i )
access to information and new production techniques; ii ) supporting and promoting sustainable rural
production; and iii ) the minimization of climate changes - actions in the environmental area. Nine
priority areas of action were identified. It is noteworthy that such propositions are only guidelines
indicating public policies to be strengthened to reduce the vulnerability of family farming and
increase adaptive capacity in the region.

12-16 May 2014
COMMUNITY-BASED POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND GLOBAL NETWORKING FOR

CLIMATE JUSTICE
Patricia E. Perkins (1) *

York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (1)
contact: esperk@yorku.ca
Abstract
ABSTRACT: Socially vulnerable people are most likely to be impacted by global climate change
(because of their geographic location), but least equipped to deal with those impacts (because of their
weak economic and political position). The field of “climate justice” is developing indicators of
vulnerability, surveys of the extent of climate change-related inequities, and policy proposals to deal
with them. Participatory community-based programs for environmental education and climate
change awareness, and climate justice organizing, can help lead to increased political engagement by
socially-vulnerable people. This paper discusses climate justice in relation to the author’s work with
non-governmental organizations, universities, and community groups in Brazil, Mozambique, South
Africa, Kenya, and Canada which was aimed at developing participatory community-based programs
for environmental education and climate change awareness leading to increased political engagement
by socially vulnerable people. Watersheds and water management, and gender equity, receive
particular focus.Keywords: climate justice, water governance, urban infrastructure, participatory
governance, environmental education, climate change, Brazil, Mozambique, Kenya, South Africa,
community development, social vulnerability, equity, sustainable developmentThemes: B (Linking
adaptation and development for human well-being), C (Integrated approaches across scales, local to
global), D (Adaptation at the edge, in regions most vulnerable to change), E (Understanding,
measuring and communicating adaptation).

12-16 May 2014
BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY THROUGH ADAPTIVE CO-MANAGEMENT IN THE

BRAZILIAN AMAZON
Jane Simoni (1) *; Gabriela Litre (1); Marcel Bursztyn (1)

University of Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil (1)
contact: jane.simoni@gmail.com
Abstract
Institutions frequently lack sufficient capacity for the implementation of sustainable adaptation
strategies, including governance systems better prepared to cope with unprecedented environmental
change. That is the case of the Brazilian Amazon, where governance challenges permeate adaptive
actions. Adaptive capacity is proposed as a critical dimension of multi-level approaches to
environmental governance in which learning and collaboration are paramount concerns. This work
presents institutional initiatives – mostly proposed by or involving non-governmental organizations -
that have emerged to fulfill adaptive action gaps opened by the (in)action of government agencies in
the States of Pará and Mato Grosso, Brazil. Our methodology seeks to identify the practitioners’
personal perceptions of those adaptive co-management experiences. Analysis shows that both
governmental and non-governmental institutions need to successfully face complex multi-level,
multi-actor challenges regarding participation, accountability, transparency, human and material
resources, and, above all, overcome historical, cultural, and behavioral barriers. At the same time,
interviewees agreed in pointing out factors negative to the principles of successful adaptive co-
management processes such as excess bureaucracy, low representativeness, limited human and
material resources, lack of policy continuity and the lack of inter-institutional cooperation. Results
point out that active adaptive co-management requires a social context with flexible and open
institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive
capacity without foreclosing future development options. Motivated actors, institutional flexibility
and a problem-oriented approach (and not necessarily the availability of abundant financial
resources) are at the core of the positive adaptive co-management experiences studied. Long-term
policies also require continuity and the representation of collective interests inherent to solid
governmental institutions. We conclude that successful adaptive co-management relies on the
participation of a diverse set of interest groups operating at different scales, from local users, to
municipalities, to regional and national and even international organizations.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES IN WARM AND

WET SNOWY REGION, JAPAN
Xieyao Ma (1) *; Mikiko Fujita (1); Masayuki Hara (1); Tadao Inoue (1); Yasutaka Wakazuki (1);
Takao Yoshikane (1); Fujio Kimura (1)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan (1)
contact: xyma@jamstec.go.jp
Abstract
Climate change is having a conspicuous effect on hydrological processes in Japan. Snowfall amounts
have fallen sharply along Japan’s eastern seaboard since the mid-1980s, resulting in a noticeable
decrease in river discharge in this region in spring. With the global warming increasing, changes in
hydrological processes in the future will be more noticeable in those warm and wet snowy regions.
In this study, we indicated calculation of river discharge by using a regional climate model output as
input data to a hydrological model to find an approach to clarify the possible effects of climate
change on water resources. The method was applied into the Shinano River, Agano River and Tone
River, Japan. The resolution of regional climate model output is 6-km and the period of simulation is
30-year from Oct. 1979 to Oct. 2000. The results showed that the characteristic of river discharge in
seasonal variation could be represented in both rivers. A future hydrological response to global
warming under the 2080s to 2100s conditions was investigated using a pseudo-global-warming
method. The results showed that the characteristic of river discharge in seasonal variation could be
represented and there were overestimated compared with measured one. Compared with the
reproduced discharges of 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, the discharges will be increased by in winter
season from December to March under the climate change projection of 2080s, 2090s and 2100s.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND CLIMATE PROOFING FOR LOCAL

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN MOZAMBIQUE
Rui Brito (1) *; Erik Salas (1); Dennis Eucker (1); Branquinho Manhonha (1)
GIZ, Maputo, Mozambique (1)
contact: rui.brito@giz.de
Abstract
Mozambique is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Africa. Climate change is
a global problem but adaptation has to be dealt with locally, in order to build local resilience that
supports sustainable development. This lesson was very well learned when dealing with climate-
related disasters in Mozambique (cyclones, floods and droughts). While climate change is expected
to increase vulnerability to climate shocks, local action becomes even more important in order to
enhancing adaptive capacity on the ground.The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, through the project “Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique”
(AMC Moz), and in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment (MICOA), the National Institute
for Disaster Risk Management (INGC), and Provincial and District Governments, is building local
capacities to deal with climate change in the country, in particular by incorporating adaptation
measures into planning instruments at district and urban levels: At the district level, development
planning starts with the elaboration of mid-term strategic plans (PEDDs) which are then translated
into annual operational and budget plans (PESODs) while at the urban level, master plans for climate
change adaptation are developed. AMC Moz is assisting development planning by bringing together
two key approaches: First, vulnerability assessments (based on the IPCC vulnerability concept), and
second, climate proofing.GIZ is implementing a global project in order to develop a methodological
sourcebook for vulnerability assessment (VA) in the context of development cooperation.
Mozambique is one of the pilot countries to test and refine the methodology. The VAs result in
climate change profiles, with crucial aspects of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity
identified. The VAs are conducted by local universities which also helps to develop capacities in
national higher education institutions. Strong interaction with local stakeholders and a focus on the
risk-perception of local communities result in climate profiles well understood by decision-makers,
thus contributing to the establishment of a broad platform for climate proofing (CP).At the same
time, GIZ has developed climate proofing for development as a flexible and open approach to
integrate adaptation to climate change in planning processes. We have adapted the CP approach to
Mozambican conditions in order to make it relevant for provincial and district governments. The
process is highly participative as we are convinced that the capacity to integrate climate change and
adaptation should exist locally to build more resilient local societies with higher levels of adaptive
capacity.

12-16 May 2014
BEYOND URBAN-RURAL BOUNDARIES: ENCOURAGING INTER-MUNICIPAL

COLLABORATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN KWAZULU-NATAL,
SOUTH AFRICA
Hayley Leck (1) *; Florence Crick (1)

London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change and the Environment,
London, UK (1)
contact: h.leck@lse.ac.uk
Abstract
Despite the widespread recognition that urban and rural systems and the livelihoods of people within
these are intrinsically connected, research on climate change adaptation has tended to focus on these
systems separately. This paper seeks to address this gap by considering the role of and barriers to
governance approaches that recognize explicitly the need for genuine cross-border collaboration
among contiguous local authorities in South Africa’s greater Durban metropolitan area over
environmental and other shared issues that transcend urban-rural divides for effective climate change
adaptation. Since these areas share environmental systems and key infrastructure, collaborative
adaptation plans that link these urban and rural municipal regions are essential. We consider the
challenges of cross-border collaboration among local authorities with divergent constituencies and
perceived interests and reflect on implications for climate change adaptation planning across borders.

12-16 May 2014
ENHANCING ADAPTIVE CAPACITIES THROUGH INTEGRATED LOCAL AND

REGIONAL RISK GOVERNANCE- A BLENDED APPROACH AND CASE STUDY FROM
AUSTRIA
Angela Michiko Hama (1) *; Andreas Koler (1); Stefan Ortner (1)
contact: hama@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Local and national governance will be more and more driven by our changing climate and coupled
socio-economic changes. Increasing social, economic and cultural vulnerabilities of countries and
municipalities demand climate-sensitive risk management solutions for enhancing adaptive
capacities.In order to meet this urgent call, the Regional Government of the Tyrol, Austria together
with the alpS -Centre for Climate Change Adaptation developed a hands-on method for risk
governance in the public sector that follows the latest scientific findings and the needs of public
authorities. It enables Austrian municipalities to respond to the increasing number of climate risks by
implementing a blended three-step risk management method that combines expert- and community-
based approaches and considers multi-hazard risks and cascading effects as well as the principles of
stakeholder engagement and cost efficiency. With the aim of creating a sense of ownership, expert
teams conduct workshops with each municipality in the Province to assess the local risk landscapes.
Following this step of risk analysis, existing measures are checked with regard to suitability and
climate-proofed. New sets of no-regret and low-regret measures are introduced, with special
attention devoted to their applicability for local decision-makers. In the step of risk monitoring,
monitoring and evaluation measures are applied. A web-based dynamic risk information tool was
developed to serve as a user-friendly decision-support system for local and regional risk governance;
trainings-of trainers on both the methodology and the tool are being run. As of December 2013, more
than 400 workshops have been conducted in municipalities with 53 to 120 000 inhabitants. For these
achievements in creating a sustainable solution, the Province of the Tyrol was chosen as a role model
for community-based risk assessment, management and reduction of the "Making Cities Resilient"
Campaign run by UNISDR.The cost- and time- efficient blend of expert- and community-based
approaches increases local capacity development and helps mainstream disaster risk reduction into
local and regional governance. This inclusive way of governing risks can be adapted to differing
cultural, social and technical settings and requirements. The expertise in applying DRR approaches
as a key adaptation strategy has so far been shared in Europe, Asia, the Americas and Africa.This
presentation will give insights into this Austrian example of province-wide risk governance. The
costs and benefits will be highlighted and a brief overview of the results and future developments
given. Finally, the engagement as a role model region within the UNISDR campaign will be
addressed.

12-16 May 2014
INTEGRATING MIGRATION AS A POSITIVE POLICY INSTRUMENT FOR

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT:ANALYSING THE REVA PLAN (SENEGAL)
Sara Vigil (1) *

University of Liège, Liège, Belgium (1)
contact: vigilsara@gmail.com
Abstract
Dry lands are home to 2.1 billion people and cover 40% of the world’s surface (UNDDD). Climate
change is deteriorating agricultural and related livelihood prospects in many of the dry regions of the
developing world (CGIAR). Since agriculture still remains the main economic activity in these
regions, poverty, out-migration and food insecurity are all likely to experience an important increase
(UNFCC). A common assumption is that environmentally induced migration occurs when
populations fail to adapt. Policies are often oriented towards adaptation mechanisms in the regions
of origin in order to prevent migration. While in some cases migration can increase the vulnerability
of the origin and host regions, research has shown that migration can constitute a feasible strategy
towards adaptation not only for the migrants themselves but also for those who stay behind (IOM,
GMG). Evidence shows that the impacts of remittances on adaptation are in fact mixed and highly
contextual (FAO, 2008). In order to achieve a beneficial impact of migrants’ social and economic
remittances on agriculture, policy conditions must be conducive (Lacroix, 2012). Co-development
programs, that involve migrants in addressing development in their regions of origin, could
constitute a step forward. This paper will discuss these issues through the example of a capacity
building program in Senegal called the REVA Plan (“back to the land”). This plan, largely founded
by Morocco and Spain, was aimed at modernising the agricultural sector in order to prevent illegal
migration through “the reinsertion of the youth in farming jobs” (Sall, 2012). Firstly, we will analyse
the benefits and unintended results of the implementation of this program. Secondly, we will discuss
the way in which such policies could benefit from considering migration not as a failure to adapt but
rather as a strategy for adaptation. Managed migration from vulnerable areas in Senegal towards
developed agricultural areas such as Almeria in Spain, could allow the migrant communities to
invest the knowledge acquired during their migratory experience towards the modernization of local
agriculture. Development projects in agriculture between Almeria in Spain and Saint Louis in
Senegal already exist but they focus on training the community in the region of origin whilst
overlooking the positive effects for both countries that the training of the large Senegalese migrant
community working in the agricultural sector in Almeria could bring. Conclusions will advance
policy recommendations for the integration of migration as a positive instrument for agricultural
development policies.

12-16 May 2014
PAYMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES AS A CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION MEASURE: CASE FEDERAL DISTRICT, MEXICO
Nidya Aponte (1) *; Maria Perevochtchikova (2)

Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (1)
El Colegio de México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (2)
contact: naponteh@iingen.unam.mx
Abstract
In various regions of Mexico, there already are registered water stress conditions (natural and
anthropogenically induced) related to the consequences of population growth, urban expansion,
overexploitation, pollution and lack of culture in the care of water resources. To this are added the
effects of climate change (CC), which in Mexico will be mainly reflected in changing patterns of the
water cycle and, in some cases, in the water availability reduction, intensifying the water stress
(Martinez and Patiño, 2012).In the Federal District (DF), the water demand has increased and, at the
same time, the available volume has decreased in quantity and quality, thus providing a challenge for
the federal and local governments. In 2007, the Climate Action Program of Mexico City was
elaborated favouring mitigation and leaving behind adaptation, but highlighting the conservation and
management of river basins (Quiroz, 2011). In this regard , this research is particularly relevant for
the further discussion of adaptation and the possibility of considering as such the federal scheme of
Payment for Hydrological Environmental Services which encourages the forest conservation through
economic compensation for the forest owners (mainly communal property) located in the upper parts
of the basins, to confront the situation of possible lack of water resources for the growing population
of the city, under the high socio- environmental vulnerability that the DF has in the CC context, in
which water availability is expected to decrease in 16% (Escolero et al., 2009).These climate
variations will have impacts on nature and society, and will foster a given exposure degree to a wide
range of risk levels, in this sense, CC is today one of the environmental trends of very high concern
(OECD , 2003) and for this reason, in recent years an ongoing dialogue has initiated between leaders
and scientists from disciplines involved in the risk management related to climate, giving rise to
cross-cutting approaches between natural and social sciences, as a supplementary reference
framework between science and policy (Ortiz and Vasquez, 2010). In this regard, this research is
embedded within the theory of risk as a social construct determined by structural forces of society,
analyzing the social effects as aggravating the physical effects , which could result in a disaster with
high human costs and materials (Oswald, 2011).

12-16 May 2014
FORMALISATION OF TRADITIONAL NATURAL RESOURCE BYLAWS INTO

COUNTY NATURAL RESOURCE REGULATIONS TO BUILD RESILIENCE OF
PASTORALIST COMMUNITIES TO DROUGHT IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID LANDS OF
KENYA
Yasin Mahadi Salah (1) *; Ahmed Mohamed (1); Eliot Taylor (1); Guyo Roba (1); John Owino (1);
Jaafarsadiq Hassan (2)
IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, Kenya (1)
Fafi Integrated Development Association, Garissa, Kenya (2)
contact: yasin.mahadi@iucn.org
Abstract
Pastoral communities living in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya had for generations
natural resources management laws and institutions embedded in the customary natural resource
governance framework that enable them manage their landscapes sustainably. Communal resource
management practices were spear headed by elders who are well versed with the terrain of the
landscape in terms of resource endowment and capacity to support number of livestock at a given
time period. Towards achieving sustainable and equitable resource utilisation, elders are actively
involved in making decision with regards pattern of movement during wet and dry seasons and
drought periods, negotiating with neighbouring communities to get consent to access resources and
also setting rules and regulation on resource use and penalties for those who defy best practices.
Traditional natural resource management institutions in ASALs of Kenya have been weakened by
modern governance systems that did not recognise the role and authority of the elders and locking
them out of the planning and decision making processes. Omission of elders from the planning and
management of the resources have created vacuum where enforcement and management has taken
up by chefs and other government officials who are not present at the grassroots as opposed to elders
who dwell among local community. The weakening of traditional institutions has resulted to
breakdown of communal resource management practices making the community members
vulnerable to droughts and other environmental hazards. Towards revitalisation and formalisation of
traditional natural resource management in the county system of resource governance in ASAL
counties in Kenya, IUCN under building drought resilience through land and water management
project has initiated the process working with various stakeholders in Garissa and Tana River
County. This paper highlights the processes undertaken to integrate the traditional laws and
institutions into county regulations and natural resource governance framework in ASALs and
explore the opportunities and challenges that exists under new devolved system of governance in
Kenya especially in linking the bylaws with natural resource management and planning frameworks
and processes in the Counties.

12-16 May 2014
SOCIO-POLITICAL SCENARIOS FOR THE YEARS 2030 AND 2060 IN THE BOLIVIAN
ALTIPLANO IN A FOUR-DEGREE-WORLD
Dirk Hoffmann (1) *; Cecilia Requena (1)

Bolivian Mountain Institute - BMI, La Paz, Bolivia (1)
contact: dirk.hoffmann@bolivian-mountains.org
Abstract
The prospect of a possible rise of global mean temperature by 4° C, which for our study region, the
Northern Altiplano, Cordillera Real, Lake Titicaca and the metropolitan area of La Paz/El Alto in the
Bolivian highlands, translates to a local temperature rise of between 7 and 10° C by 2100, forced us
to envisage a future that until very recently would have seemed absolutely improbable, but seems to
becoming a harsh reality.It is within the framework of global concern regarding the impact of climate
change, that for the purpose of our present study “Bolivia in a 4 degree warmer world” we have
adopted the methodology of socio-political scenarios, which are a set of plausible hypotheses about
the influence of climate change on human society in the coming decades, based predominantly on
qualitative, approximate, panoramic and regional factors.We have developed scenarios for two
different time horizons: 2030 (our time) and 2060 (the time of our children and grandchildren). For
each time horizon we have devised three distinct scenarios: business-as-usual, which attempts to
imagine a situation not unlike the present, with no significant changes; a worst case scenario.With
the help of these scenarios, the study shows that the consequences of climate change in the region
under investigation, as a result of a 4° C increase in global mean temperature, will be harmful and
disruptive in 2030, and devastating in 2060, unless there are significant changes in the predominant
environmental, social, economic and political trends in the region, in the country as a whole, as well
as worldwide.In conclusion, the findings of our study point clearly to the present day responsibility
of the different actors of the region to set about raising awareness and adopting decisions to face the
challenges, with special emphasis on prevention, adaptation and resilience. To download the book
“Bolivia en un mundo 4 grados más caliente. Escenarios sociopolíticos ante el cambio climático para
los años 2030 y 2060 en el altiplano norte” (in Spanish language) follow this link:
http://www.cambioclimatico-bolivia.org/index-cc.php?cod_aporte=108#108

12-16 May 2014
DEVELOPMENT OF BRAZILIAN BIOETHANOL AS ANSWER OF CHALLENGE TO

CLIMATE CHANGE: POLITICS AND PERFORMANCE MARKETING
Altair Aparecido de Oliveira Filho (1) *; Edgar Barassa (1); Flávia Luciane Consoni (1)
University of Campinas - UNICAMP, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
contact: altairgeo@gmail.com
Abstract
In the debate on adaptation to climate change, there is a set of technical and scientific solutions that
aims at helping to solve problems caused by the alteration of the Earth's climate. This paper argues
that adaptation is a social process, which seeks alternatives to reduce the adverse effects of climate
change. However, this adaptive capability depends on factors that are intrinsic to the economic,
institutional and technological development of each social formation. Thus, the analysis of the
various technological paths that contribute to the overcoming of carbon lock-in becomes relevant.
This study identifies the behavior of the technological route of bioethanol, which is a liquid fuel
derived from biomass, in Brazil. The objective is to introduce the policies that contribute to its
development, and also to characterize the behavior of this technology in the market. It was possible
to establish a general framework of the design of the current policies in the industry. Bioethanol is
presented concretely as an alternative replacement to petroleum in Brazil since the late 1970s with
Proálcool. Brazilian production of bioethanol in the 21th century introduced a new expansion cycle
with a rise in production (just over 10 billion / liters in 2000/01 to 23.4 billion / liters in 2012/13) and
in exports (from 743,000 liters in 2003 to 2.3 million liters in 2012). Among the list of new policies
for the sector, it was identified that these policies intended to consolidate the market of the sector and
the development of new technologies, being the efforts concentrated primarily in the agricultural
phase of the process a striking feature of this sectoral system of innovation. The instruments found,
classified as demand-pull, refer to the Regulatory Ethanol, the Ten-Year Plan for Energy Expansion /
2021, Provisional Measure 613/2013, and PRORENOVA. Among the tools of technology-push,
there are the National Agro Energy / 2006-2010, the Action Plan on Science, Technology and
Innovation / 2007-2010, the program PAISS FINEP / BNDES. So far, it appears that the industry is
booming with a diverse set of initiatives and institutional instruments, aiming to expand the market
and to improve the technological standard.

12-16 May 2014
PROMOTING AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION: LESSONS

FROM THE CLIMATE RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE COFFEE VALUE CHAIN PILOT
INITIATIVE IN UGANDA
Julie Dekens (1) *; Fredrick Bagamba (2); Susan Bingi (3); Norman Ojamuge (3)
IISD, Geneva, Switzerland (1)
Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda (2)
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperative, Kampala, Uganda (3)
contact: jdekens@iisd.org
Abstract
Value chain deterioration due to a combination of climatic and non-climatic factors has the potential
to compromise development aspirations at all levels with negative consequences for poverty
reduction and food security - particularly in commodity dependent developing countries. Climate
change also accentuates existing asymmetric power relations and inequalities along value chains:
those with limited adaptive capacity suffer the most because they have already fewer resources to
minimize the negative impacts of climate change. Value chain is an important place to embed
climate adaptation because it recognizes the inter-dependency of actors involved in a product value
chain and the need for comprehensive (i.e. across different levels and sectors), win-win solutions.
And yet, very limited work has been done to support adaptation to a changing climate along entire
value chains. The bulk of activities done on climate adaptation over the last decade has essentially
focused on the production level. This paper builds on the results of a pilot initiative on identifying
and managing the risks climate change poses along the coffee value chain in Uganda. In 2013, the
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Cooperative, Makerere University and the International Institute for
Sustainable Development (IISD) initiated a process to explore the linkages between climate and
agro-value chain development using the coffee sector as a pilot. Coffee is a climate sensitive crop
that provides the main share of the total export revenue of the country. A climate risk analysis was
conducted using ‘dialogue theaters' - a method which uses drama to promote adult learning on
climate impacts and adaptation between value chain actors.The negative impacts of climate hazards
are being felt across the entire value chain but coffee farmers and processors tend to be more
vulnerable due to their limited adaptive capacity. While most actors are already making some efforts
to minimize the negative impacts of climate hazards on their activities, not all responses are
sustainable. In addition, a lack of communication, exchange of information and trust between value
chain actors hampers climate adaptation. This is partly because the chain is fragmented with many
intermediaries between farmers and exporters. Finally, the limited access to agriculture finance is
perceived as a key barrier across the chain and contributes to exacerbate the adverse impacts of
climate hazards on all activities. The pilot generated specific recommendations to foster climate
resilient and inclusive agro-value chains.

12-16 May 2014
BUILDING DROUGHT RESILIENCE THROUGH LAND AND WATER MANAGEMENT

IN LOWER TANA, KENYA: ADAPTED SUB-CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT PLANNING
APPROACH
Yasin Mahadi Salah (1) *; Ahmed Mohamed (1); Eliot Taylor (1); Guyo Roba (1); John Owino (1);
Jaafarsadiq Hassan (2)
IUCN Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, Kenya (1)
Fafi Integrated Development Association, Garissa, Kenya (2)
contact: yasin.mahadi@iucn.org
Abstract
Recurrent drought has been adversely impacting the pastoral communities in northern Kenya and is
anticipated to continue to do so in the near future as a result of climate change. Pastoral
communities have managed climate variability for millennia through the use of a diverse number and
range of coping mechanisms. Such mechanisms have been developed over years and are hinged on
traditional resource management and governance approaches. The breakdown of these traditional
resources management practices, mainly attributed to a weakening of traditional authorities as a
result of the imposition of more modern and national approaches, has greatly disrupted both
sustainable resource management and the adaptive capacity of pastoral communities in the arid and
semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya. Currently, a disjointed and uncoordinated approach to resource
management by different government departments and the exclusion of local communities in both
planning and execution of these is exacerbating an already bad situation. For example, the
indiscriminate development of water points in the ASALs, without prior consideration of the
potential adverse social and ecological consequences of such actions, has actually resulted in
environmental degradation and reduced adaptive capacity of the pastoral communities rather than the
envisaged opposite impact. Participatory planning and management of resources in the pastoral areas
that promote integrated approach in water and land management hold great potential in overcoming
excruciating drought currently experienced in the area. Formulation of adapted sub-catchment
management plan (ASCMP) approach is one of the endeavours tailored to help pastoral communities
in the ASALs realize sustainable land and water management practices that enhance resilience to
drought and climate change. The approach is based on integration of the rangeland management and
sub-catchment management plans to best serve the need of the ASAL pastoral communities in
Northern Kenya. This paper highlights the steps taken to realise the ASCMP and the potential that
exists in effectively implementing the plan to foster resilience of pastoral communities in the
Northern Kenya under the devolved system of governance in Kenya especially the element of
entrenching the ASCMP in county strategic planning mechanism and community driven process that
embrace participatory resource planning and management.

12-16 May 2014
GROWING NOW THE FORESTS FOR OUR BIODIVERSE, CARBON-RICH AND

WEALTHY FUTURE >4°C
Jean-Baptiste Pichancourt (1) *; Jennifer Firn (1); Iadine Chades (1); Tara Martin (1)
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (1)
contact: jean-baptiste.pichancourt@csiro.au
Abstract
Concern from policy-makers and scientists about how to manage forests for benefits other than
traditional (non-)timber products, is at an all time high. Forests are now becoming central
components for solving simultaneously biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and
livelihoods objectives globally. Maximizing these three co-benefits, however, remains theoretically
and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between biodiversity, carbon
sequestration and the harvesting of (non-)timber forest products in forests; the strong influence of
climate variability and landscape position on forest development; the large number of management
strategies possible; and long time-frames needed to declare success.Through the synthesis of three
decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science
and forestry, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize simultaneously carbon sequestration,
plant functional diversity and economic returns from tree harvesting. We show how to manage
functional ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between tree species planted, thinned and harvested in
order to achieve maximal co-benefits in various landscape contexts and >4°C climate futures. We
provide examples of optimal planting, thinning and harvesting rules that satisfy this social-ecological
strategy and guide the management of forests that are rich in carbon, plant functional diversity and
economic return from tree harvesting.Our modelling framework provides the first mechanistic
approach for generating decision-making rules that can be used to manage forests simultaneously for
biodiversity, climate and rural people's livelihoods. The framework can also be linked to species
distribution models and governance models in order to find ways of adapting institutions for solving
triple-bottom line objectives across landscapes under climate change. Our study provides the
foundation for developing and testing, under global change, cost-effective and adaptable
management rules to ensure success of forest initiatives such as Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+.

12-16 May 2014
POSSIBLE CHANGES ON DRY SEASON DURATION AND FOREST FIRE RISK OVER
THE AMAZON UNDER A HEAVY-EMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
Alexandre Costa (1) *; Domingo Cassain Sales (2); Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Jr. (3);
Sullyandro Guimarães (1)
Universidade Estadual do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil (1)
Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil (2)
contact: alexandrearaujoc@gmail.com
Abstract
Dynamical downscaling simulations were performed over the Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Ex- periment (CORDEX) “Central America” domain (which also comprises southern
North America, the Caribbean and northern South America), using the Regional Atmospheric
Modeling System (RAMS), forced by data from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model,
Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) for both the current climate and the Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Projected changes include a generalized warming, more intense over land
areas, as well as changes in precipitation patterns. Projected warming increases along the 21st
century, being especially pronounced over the Amazon. Over South America, by the end of the
century, the regional model projects changes in the annual cycle, with enhanced precipitation in most
months over Southern Amazon (except for the SON season) and April-August over Northern
Amazon (with rainfall reduction in the rest of the year). The relationships between temperature and
precipitation changes and moisture flux, radiative and turbulence fluxes were also investigated. Over
Eastern Amazon, especially in the 2079-2099 period, under the heavy-emission scenario, a coherent
springtime (SON) reduction of soil moisture, evaporation and precipitation was found, along with
increased sensible heat flux, and an increase in temperature that is greater than in the rest of the year.
The strong rainfall reduction and the feedbacks lead to an increase in the duration of the dry season.
Such pattern is also accompanied by changes in the distribution of daily precipitation, with a
tendency of a reduced number of weak to moderate rainfall events. All those features concur to an
increase in the risk of forest fire occurrence, possibly triggering other important feedbacks over that
region.

12-16 May 2014
WHAT LEGAL OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO MANAGE OR MINIMISE THE

PROFOUND EFFECTS OF > 4 OF WARMING ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS IN
AUSTRALIA?
Phillipa McCormack (1) *

University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia (1)
contact: phlmack@gmail.com
Abstract
Climate change has, and will have, increasingly profound implications for the function and survival
of natural ecosystems in Australia (Steffen et al., 2009). Such implications include geographical and
seasonal shifts in rainfall, sea level rise and growing mismatches in phenological events (IPCC,
2007; Steffen et al., 2009). The effect of existing and emerging stressors on biodiversity, including
changing fire regimes and the spread of exotic species, is also likely to be amplified by climate
change. This combination is predicted to result in wide scale changes in species' distribution and
extinction rates, and ecosystem disassembly, re-assembly and decline (Steffen et al, 2009). Legal
frameworks for biodiversity conservation and natural resource management will have a major role to
play in facilitating ecosystem adaptation and persistence in a future of >4 degrees of warming.There
is a spectrum of practical adaptation responses available under existing Australian legal frameworks
to manage or minimise the effects of climate change on natural ecosystems. These range from low-
intensity interventions including enhancing and expanding the protected area estate and prioritising
connectivity in conservation, to high-intensity, ex situ strategies such as assisted colonisation and
captive breeding. As ecological changes accelerate under climate change and ecosystems respond in
unexpected ways, traditional ‘maintenance' based management, relying on protected areas and
enhanced management practices, is likely to be insufficient to conserve natural ecosystems in their
current state. Dramatic interventions, including ex situ conservation options, will also be necessary
(Pritchard & Harrop, 2010). This paper suggests that current legal frameworks in Australia may
operate as a barrier to taking such action, and that legal reform is necessary.A rigorous and
scientifically sound assessment process will be needed to ensure that ex situ conservation promotes
adaptation while avoiding causing additional harm to natural ecosystems. Legal frameworks will be
needed to enshrine these processes. The law can also be used to ensure accountability for decision-
making, provide opportunities for engagement with diverse stakeholders' perspectives, and
remediation costs in cases of policy, management and ecological failure. The paper proposes a range
of legal mechanisms to achieve such reforms.Hennessy et al., Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability, IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Australia and New Zealand,
(Cambridge University Press, 2007).Steffen et al., A strategic assessment of the vulnerability of
Australia's biodiversity to climate change (CSIRO, 2009).Pritchard & Harrop, 'A re-evaluation of the
role of ex situ conservation in the face of climate change' (2010) 7(1) BGJournal 1.

12-16 May 2014
IMPACT OF SALINITY ON RIVERINE ECOSYSTEM OF MACROINVERTEBRATES IN

BANGLADESH
S.M. Atiqul Islam (1) *; Md. Showkat Osman (1); A.J. Howlader (2); A.F.M. Aslam (2); Md.
Mansurul Hoque (2); M.A. Alam (1); Biswajit Biswas (1); Hasan Mohammed Asiful Hoque (1); Md.
Selim Reza (3); Sadia Afrose (1); 0
Bangladesh (1)
Jahangir Nagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh (2)
NICHE-DUET Project, Dhaka University of Engineering & Technology, Gazipur, Gazipur, Bangladesh (3)
contact: atiqsmi@gmail.com
Abstract
As the climate change directly impacts in the sea level rise and increase the salinity of freshwater,
especially the river water, riverine ecosystem is directly impacted due to climate change in
Bangladesh. Macroinvertebrates that inhabit a river are a profile of the overall health of that
ecosystem. Among the macroinvertebrates, plankton inhabit oceans, seas, lakes, ponds. They provide
a crucial source of food to many large aquatic organisms. In order to envisage the impact of salinity
on riverine ecosystem, plankton as indictor macroinvertebrates population analysis was conducted in
estuarine brackish water and compared that of with freshwater river. The study was conducted along
the estuarine rivers in the southern part of Bangladesh in eastern coastal zone in Khulna and
Bangerhat near Sundarbans in Rupsha River, Harbaria Channel, Shela River, Path Kata River,
Betmoor River, River at Kotka and Supoti River. For plankton (phyto- and zooplankton) survey a
total of 9 samples were collected from the estuarine locations. It was also observed in Meghna River
at Ashuganj for freshwater ecosystem. As expected, the Electric Conductivity, measure of salinity,
increases with the distance near Bay of Bengal. Highest EC was observed in the estuarine river at
Betmoor River near Kotka as 37.8 mS/cm (millisiemens/cm), corresponding chloride concentration
was 17750 mg/l. The increasing salinity in the estuarine river system will further increase the salinity
of drinking water source as ponds and groundwater. The observed zooplankton and phytoplankton at
nine locations indicates that the species number and diversity decreases with the increased salinity.
Number of unidentified species is also observed higher close to marine ecosystem as the marine
species are less studied than freshwater species. It is clearly observed that plankton population at
freshwater riverine ecosystem is diverse and higher in number. The EC of freshwater is around 10-20
times lower than the estuarine brackish water, however, plankton population is observed 3-10 times
higher and diverse. The driving role of salinity has important ramifications on the long-term
condition of salinised ecosystem. For sustainability, ecological adaptation approach is necessary to
introduce.

12-16 May 2014
GEOGRAPHICAL LIMITS TO CLIMATE-RELATED BIODIVERSITY SHIFTS
Michael Burrows (1); Elvira Poloczanska (2) *; Jorge Garcia Molinos (1); David Schoeman (3);
Anthony Richardson (2,4)
Scottish Association for Marine Science, Oban, Argyll, UK (1)
Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (2)
University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Queensland, Australia (3)
University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (4)
contact: elvira.poloczanska@csiro.au
Abstract
There is a growing literature describing responses in the abundance, and distribution of species to
recent climate change and a heightened concern about what will happen if global temperatures rise to
4°C and beyond. There is an urgent need for clear guidance on where and how fast biodiversity is
most likely to be affected so that management plans can accommodate expected consequences. One
approach to providing rapid assessment, is the velocity of climate change which describes the speed
and direction of shifting climate contours. We apply the velocity of climate change to derive
trajectories for climatic niches. We use the collective properties of trajectories to classify areas with
different implications for biodiversity. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as
attractors, influencing the flow of trajectories and creating distinct climate source and sink areas.
Climate migrants leaving source areas may not be replaced: sources lack climatic connections to
environments from which new migrants may arrive. The non-replacement of climate migrants in
thermal source regions, where the local climate departs from historical conditions of that and
surrounding areas, may result in net losses of indigenous biodiversity, and facilitate the
establishment of new species into the abandoned niches. Converging temperature isotherms in sinks
may concentrate climate migrants, increasing local diversity, while certain classes of sinks such as
those occurring where trajectories are blocked by coasts represent climatic dead-ends where species
have nowhere to go to avoid warming, creating potential for high local extinction rates. The
congruency in patterns of future projections with past reconstructions suggests that management
actions for conserving biodiversity that are informed by current climate trajectories could remain
effective into the future, and that the relative extent of source and sink areas depends on the rate of
warming, with intense warming resulting in larger source areas.

12-16 May 2014
CONFLICTS ABOUT WATER IN LAKE CHAD: ARE ENVIRONMENTAL,

VULNERABILITY AND SECURITY ISSUES LINKED?
Uche Okpara (1,2) *; Lindsay Stringer (1); Andrew Dougill (1)

Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, England, Leeds, UK (1)
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria (2)
contact: uche4purpose@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract
This paper builds on the growing literature that explores the relations between environmental change
and non-traditional security, defined as non-military threats that challenge the survival and well-
being of peoples and states. The Lake Chad basin in Africa is used as a case study for analysis.
Focusing on a set of questions that has dominated recent theoretical debates in this field, the paper
investigates if conflicts resulting from water scarcity are as much about the broader vulnerability of
the Lake Chad region as they are about changes in the lake system and its environment. It argues that
conflict is a probable outcome only in locations that are already challenged by a multitude of other
context-specific factors beside resource scarcity. In the Lake Chad context, this implies that the
likelihood of scarcity-driven conflict depends on whether vulnerability increases or decreases in the
face of a declining water supply. The paper provides perspectives for a nuanced understanding of the
way the receding Lake Chad leads to conflict and outlines an integrated, forward-looking research
agenda for linking environmental change, vulnerability and security issues in integrated human-
environment systems.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN SECURITY IN MEXICO FOR REDUCING SOCIAL

AND ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY
Ursula Oswald Spring (1) *

National Autonomous University of MExico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico (1)
contact: uoswald@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper addresses from a human security perspective the dual environmental and social
vulnerability with a special focus on drylands in Mexico that were caused and intensified by
anthropogenic climate change. Climate change has been changing the traditional livelihood,
especially in the drylands of the northern, central and southern parts of Mexico, where 77% of the
people live that produce 87% of GDP but which get only 31% of the precipitation. Still 77% of the
water is used in agriculture, often in an inefficient way. The exportation of vegetables by
agribusiness has a high water footprint in these regions. Further, the free trade policy (NAFTA) has
increased basic food imports. These processes have threatened the livelihood of vulnerable people in
rain-fed regions that often live in extreme poverty and rely on natural resources. Facing challenges of
survival, members of their extended families are forced to migrate, while highly vulnerable groups
(women, children, and elders) stay behind, thus increasing their human insecurity. In the rural areas,
where many indigenous groups live, weak local institutions and lack of investments and support
trigger complex conflicts and socioeconomic constellations, especially in the states of Guerrero,
Morelos, Oaxaca and Chiapas where many existing ethno-religious and resource conflicts exist. Both
will further reduce the governance and increase the risks of social uprising. The lack in governance
and the high vulnerability to climate extreme events require bottom-up efforts for resilience from
affected people to increase their human security. In several cases, extreme poverty forced poor rural
inhabitants to develop appropriate adaptation measures, such as rain water harvesting in most of
drylands, sustainable reforestation in Oaxaca, integrated basin management with recovery of soil and
environmental services in Morelos, changes in crops and shift to sustainable land management in
Guerrero. These activities have improved the livelihood of the people in these regions and reduced
environmentally-induced migration. But in 2013 more extreme events have affected the life,
livelihood and wellbeing and new resilience processes are needed to protect and empower the
vulnerable people in affected rural areas and thus enhance their human security.

12-16 May 2014
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY NEXUS IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID CONFLICT-

PRONE REGIONS: SEGURITIZING LAND DEGRADATION BY MOVING TOWRDS A
PROACTIVE SOIL SECURITY CONCEPT
Hans Günter Brauch (1) *

Peace Research and European Security Studies, Mosbach, Germany (1)
contact: hg.brauch@onlinehome.de
Abstract
This paper emerged from a global dialogue and publication project on "Reconceptualizing Security"
after the end of the Cold War that resulted in the Global Environmental and Human Security
Handbook for the Anthropocene (GEHSHA) that was published in three volumes with 270 peer-
reviewed chapters (2008-2011) and specifically builds on two texts coauthored with Ursula Oswald
Spring on: a) Securitizing the Ground - Grounding Security (Bonn: UNCCD, 2009); b) "Securitizing
Land Degradation and Desertification: A Proactive Soil Security Concept", in: Brauch, Hans Günter,
et al., 2011: Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats,
Challenges, Vul¬ne¬ra¬bilities and Risks (Berlin: Springer): 803-834 and on the author's work on
climate change and conflict and on peace ecology. It also will benefit from a new global project on
"sustainability transition and sustainable peace" that will result in a peer reviewed multidisciplinary
handbookIn the first part the presentations frames the context of the emerging debate in the social
sciences on socio-political impacts of climate change in arid and semi-arid conflict-prone regions in
North Africa and in the Middle East (MENA region). The development and security nexus is
addressed in the second part from an international, national and human security approach taking
specific relevant sectoral security implications for water, soil, food and health but also energy
security with a high technical potential of solar energy into account through both small decentralized
and highly centralized international projects (Desertec project). The third part focuses from a human
security perspective specifically on securitizing land degradation and suggests to move towards a
proactive soil security concept that was first proposed in a UNCCD report in 2009. The fourth part
discusses strategies, policies and measures for arid and semi-arid conflict-prone regions in the
context of the scientific debate on sustainability transition and their relevance contributing to a
sustainable peace.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNAITONAL SECURITY IN SOUTH

AMERICA
Eduardo Viola (1) *

University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil (1)
contact: eduviola@gmail.com
Abstract
Several regions of South America are highly vulnerable to climate change according to some studies.
Extreme weather events could have international implications in the region: waves of climate
refugees, transformations in water regimes in international basins (particularly the Plata and the
Amazon), demand for cooperation among Armed Forces in need to cope with humanitarian
emergencies. The doctrine of South American Armed Forces is not prepared to deal with climate
change; some of them invest heavy financial resources in modern weapon systems for reasons of
prestige instead of investing in equipment to deal with natural disasters and extreme weather
events.So far most South American countries have a precarious civil defence culture and
organization. The international awareness about climate change developed in the last decade has not
produced so far improvement in civil defence. South America has already two treaties/organizations
that where not signed in order to cope with climate change but whose mission could be redefined in
order to deal with the issue: the Organization of Amazonian Cooperation and the Union of South
American Nations. However both organizations have not internalized so far the need of developing
tools for international cooperation in civil defence and readiness and cooperation among Armed
Forces in order to deal with extreme weather events. The paper will discuss extensively interlink
between climate change and international security in various South American countries and the
potentialities of future cooperation through the redefinition of the mission of the Organization of the
Treaty for Amazonian Cooperation and the Union of South American Nations.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE AND SECURITY: EVIDENCE, EMERGING RISKS AND A NEW RESEARCH

AGENDA
Francois Gemenne (1) *

University of Liege, Liege, Belgium (1)
contact: f.gemenne@ulg.ac.be
Abstract
There is now a wide body of literature on the diverse linkages between climate change and security.
Most of this literature has been produced by security and development agencies and think-tanks, is in
the form of meeting reports, desktop studies, and policy briefs, and has not been subjected to
scientific peer-review. Compared to the small body of peer-reviewed research on this subject, this
body of ‘grey literature’, has the advantage to highlighting emerging issues where there may not be
robust data and can be highly influential when written from the perspective of one country or region.
It is difficult then to place confidence in non peer-reviewed reports on aspects of climate change and
security, particularly those with strong prescriptive statements, without seeking to assess the
robustness of the evidence base on which they are founded.This paper presents the key results of a
critical review of this body of literature that was published in a special issue of Climatic Change in
February 2014. The project conducted a critical review of the literature on the key themes of the
climate – security nexus.The paper will present the key results from the special issue and seeks to
establish a new research agenda, providing more robust evidence of the linkages between climate
change and security, a critical issue for adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
ORGANIZAÇÃO DOS SERVIÇOS URBANOS DE SAÚDE FRENTE À MUDANÇA DO

CLIMA E AO RISCO DE DESASTRES NA AMÉRICA LATINA
Carlos Pereira (1) *; Martha Barata (1)

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1)
Abstract
Introdução: As pesquisas sobre mudanças no clima apontam a probabilidade de maior ocorrência de
eventos extremos. Países da América Latina têm buscado alternativas para melhorar a organização e
capacidade de resposta em saúde. São relatadas neste resumo algumas experiências dos países dessa
região quanto a preparação e adaptação à mudança do clima no setor saúde, que poderiam ser
replicadas em outros locais.Metodologia: Pesquisa documental, baseada em bibliografias contidas
em bases de dados e sites de instituições ligadas à gestão em saúde e do risco de desastres na
América Latina. Dos documentos encontrados foram extraídas informações sobre hospitais seguros,
avaliação da vulnerabilidade dos serviços de saúde e hospitais inteligentes.Resultados e discussão:
No que se refere à formulação de políticas públicas sobre hospitais seguros, foram encontrados
relatos de políticas, normas e leis no Chile, na Colômbia, na Costa Rica, no Peru e no Equador.Além
de políticas, têm sido implantados estudos de vulnerabilidade dos estabelecimentos de saúde. Foram
encontrados registros de estudos realizados em Cuba, na Venezuela e no Peru. Além desses estudos,
tem sido utilizado o Índice de Segurança Hospitalar, ferramenta desenvolvida pela Organização
Panamericana de Saúde - OPAS para ser um método de avaliação rápido e de baixo custo que
ofereça uma ideia imediata da probabilidade de um estabelecimento de saúde continuar funcionando
após a ocorrência de um desastre. O Índice tem sido aplicado em vários hospitais da Bolívia,
Equador, Peru, México, Caribe e Cuba. Sobre a aplicação do índice no Brasil, foram encontrados
apenas dois relatos de sua utilização.A Organização Pan-americana de Saúde, com o apoio do
Departamento para Desenvolvimento Internacional do Reino Unido, está desenvolvendo um projeto
de Estabelecimentos de Saúde Inteligentes, que associa as técnicas de redução do risco de desastres
com o uso de energia com baixas emissões de carbono. Inicialmente, a metodologia está sendo
testada em dois hospitais de dois países do Caribe, mas a intenção é que a metodologia seja
disseminada.Considerações finais: As práticas relatadas se mostraram exitosas e podem ser
replicadas em outros locais de modo a contribuir para a edificação de cidades resilientes e de
serviços de saúde menos vulneráveis às mudanças do clima. Espera-se a motivação do setor saúde
para reorganizar-se e adaptar-se ao possível aumento de ocorrência de eventos extremos. As
experiências avaliadas também mostram-se úteis para ampliar e melhorar o conhecimento, a
informação e a percepção da população sobre a respectiva vulnerabilidade ao risco climático.

12-16 May 2014
BRINGING IT ‘HOME': THE IMPOTENCE OF ADAPTATION IN DEVOLVING

RESPONSIBILITY FOR DROUGHT
Tamara Sysak (1) *; Ruth Beilin (1)

University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (1)
contact: tamara.sysak@unimelb.edu.au
Abstract
In the Australian agricultural sector, the national response for climate change, to conform to global
expectations of food and human security, is geared towards maintaining Australia as a food bowl for
the rest of the world. With increases in extreme weather events and natural disasters, this national
level adaptation response does not translate to the regional and local scales where the effects of a
changing climate and what this means for agricultural production become more visible. The specific
framing or categorisation of adaptation responses at higher levels determine the response at the local
scale, frequently limiting or inhibiting the most appropriate adaptation decisions. This paper looks at
the various categorizations of drought and the corresponding adaptation responses and how they
translate to farmers making local level decisions. This paper draws on empirical evidence using three
examples from northern Victoria, Australia, to show how institutions at different scales use their
power to categorise and align adaptation responses and to legitimize their practice and/or discourse
as one of adaptation to climate change. The first is the categorisation of drought - in a twenty year
period changing from a classification of disaster, to a normal part of the climate, to exceptional (rare
and severe) , with the current discourse around dryness. The second is the commodification of water
- water had been used as the local adaptation response to drought in irrigated areas and through
legislation from another scale overnight became a purely economic commodity. The final example is
the local governments that through devolution of responsibility are delegated as implementing local
climate change adaptation - but by legislation they have no authority and through lack of funding
they have no means to enact the policy. In all of these examples, the adaptation response has been set
at a federal or state level but the responsibility for actual adaptation has been framed at the local
level. The misalignment between the higher level adaptation response and local conditions means
that farmers at the local scale are unable to identify practices associated with genuine adaptation in
the face of increased extreme weather events and natural disasters and instead are confronted with
empty rhetoric about its future potential.

12-16 May 2014
CHARACTERIZATION AND PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION FOR

SELECTED STATIONS IN ZIMBABWE
Raymond Mugandani (1); Cyril Murewi (1); Desmond Manatsa (3); Charity Changoroma (1);
Batanai Sammie (1); Veronica Makuvaro (1); Elisha Moyo (1); Elvis Mupfiga (1) *
Midlands State University, Gweru, Zimbabwe (1)
Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe (3)
contact: mugandanir@gmail.com
Abstract
Whilst Africa has been identified as a continent most vulnerable to climate change and extremes of
weather, there is paucity of data on the characterization of precipitation extremes in view of climate
variability and change. Therefore the main purpose of this research was to characterize precipitation
using daily data for selected meteorological stations in Zimbabwe. The research is motivated by the
need to provide users with detailed temporal specific seasonal forecasts in view of the seasonal
variations in the characteristics of the extremes. Output of this research can also be used to draw up
adaptation and coping mechanisms for hotspot areas so as to reduce vulnerability. Selected
precipitation indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change and Indices were used to
analyze rainfall data covering the period 2001 to 2011. The parameters analyzed were the counts of
the largest number of consecutive dry and wet days, the maximum number of heavy and very heavy
precipitation days. In addition, the number of dry days was also calculated. All the indices were
calculated from October to March with the exception of consecutive dry and wet, which were
calculated from December to February. There is an increasing but non - significant trend for all
indices. The average rainfall anomalies for the months of December – January and February can be
predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index with an average lead time of six months for three
stations used in such an analysis.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK PREVENTION IN GERMANY
Achim Daschkeit (1) *; Sebastian Ebert (1)

Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Rosslau, Sachsen-Anhalt, Germany (1)
contact: achim.daschkeit@uba.de
Abstract
In Germany climate change adaptation and disaster risk prevention are closely connected, e. g.
disaster risk prevention - including civil protection - has been one of the cross-cutting issues of the
German Adaptation Strategy which was approved by the Federal Government in December 2008.
Furthermore, projected climate extremes are starting points for the national risk analysis to develop
strategic and tactical modifications of future civil protection as well as disaster risk prevention.Since
2007 five national agencies ("Agency Alliance": Federal Environment Agency, German
Meteorological Service, Federal Agency for Technical Relief, Federal Office of Civil Protection and
Disaster Assistance, Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial
Development) have been cooperating in order to establish a knowledge basis as well as identify
measures to foster climate change adaptation and disaster risk prevention. Two factors are crucial for
the continuous adjustment of climate change adaptation and disaster risk prevention:1) The
permanent production of new scientific results regarding future climate extremes leads to the
necessity of perpetually risk assessment of climate change impacts for regions and / or sectors as
well as cross-cutting themes.2) The objectives for climate change adaptation and disaster risk
prevention as the basis for risk assessments are varying over time. Moreover, the transformation into
a sustainable and climate-resilient future is an important but neglected factor to define these
objectives.The presentation depicts the development (since 2008) and future needs of the combined
policy field climate change adaptation and disaster risk prevention, and focuses the ongoing
adjustments concerning new scientific results and not clearly defined goals respectively moving
targets.

12-16 May 2014
AUSTRALIAN DISASTER NARRATIVES: THE SHIFTING CONTINUUM BETWEEN

RISK AND RESILIENCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Ruth Beilin (1) *; Paulina Aldunce (2); Tarnya Kruger (1); Jana Paschen (1); Karen Reid (1)
University of Chile, Santiago, Chile (2)
contact: rbeilin@unimelb.edu.au
Abstract
In this paper we bring together disaster narratives associated with recent flood and fire events, and
coastal sea rise in the Australian landscape. We argue for a social and ecological resilience
perspective that reintegrates everyday lived experience and the current institutional practices of
response within the context of multiple scales. We describe response to ‘events’ through
ethnographic narratives and semi-structured interviews. Volunteer firefighters negotiate their
landscape terrain by invoking rules of engagement and their local knowledge or expectations of
place. Peri-urban and rural dwellers are encouraged to protect assets as part of being ‘fire ready’ but
the research indicates that conventional fire management plans do not match their experience of
being at home in these places and which they value as part of the wider landscape. Coastal dwellers
conceptualise regional sea level rise at the personal and local scale, but their sensibility of being part
of the coastal landscape connects them to the continental tides and sand drifts in a way that counters
notions of isolated place-based solutions. The government agency and NGOs charged with
responding to disasters in the Queensland floods case, locate themselves within different story
frames to account for their expectations of resilience. In examining how the respondents in these
various case studies construct their resilience narratives and see, read and live within these
landscapes, the continuum between understanding risk and social resilience emerges. Exploring
their social and ecological memory to understand their adaptive capacity has suggested to us that
local disaster management knowledge draws on past history and current world-view. There is no
evidence in our research of a knowledge deficit among communities, as has been suggested by
experts and agencies. Instead we argue that across the cases there is evidence of everyday local land
management practices that support an often intimate ‘knowing’. These findings contribute to a more
nuanced understanding of local responses to climate extremes and disaster management, reflecting
cross-scale sagacity and strategic directions for improving both adaptive management and policy
outcomes under exacerbating climate conditions in Australia.

12-16 May 2014
PROJECTIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN TWO REGIONS OF SÃO PAULO

STATE, BRAZIL IN THE COMING DECADES OF THE 21ST CENTURY-
UNCERTAINTIES, VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
Iracema Cavalcanti (1) *; Lucí Nunes (2); Virginia Silveira (1); José Antonio Marengo (1)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil (1)
Universidade de Campinas, Campinas, Brazil (2)
contact: iracema@cptec.inpe.br
Abstract
Weather and climate extremes are part of the natural system and as natural events are partly
independent of human activities. However, since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have
contributed to climate change by adding substantial amount of greenhouse gases and aerosol in the
atmosphere, which have altered the frequency and intensity of the extremes. These aspects are
present in this study, which evaluates the precipitation variability and changes as well as their
impacts such as landslides and flooding for two regions of the state of São Paulo, in southeastern
South America. The state is located in a region affected by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, a
system that causes heavy and persistent precipitation. The areas- the Metropolitan regions of
Campinas and Baixada Santista - present topographic diversity and rich ecosystems and climate, but
also low environmental threshold, aggravated by the population shifts to more risk-prone locations,
which led to relevant environmental changes during the last decades and made population more
vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather and climate. Simulations and projections obtained from
four integrations of the Regional Eta model are analyzed to investigate the model behavior during the
period of 1961-1990 and the projections in the near (2011 to 2040) and more distant future (2041 to
2100). In order to obtain the range of projected changes and to give the confidence level, results from
several integrations need to be evaluated, and for this purpose results from the four integrations with
different lateral boundary conditions from the HadCM3 Global Model, which allow uncertainties
analyses, were considered. The model reasonably simulates precipitation and the annual cycle in the
analyzed regions. Changes in the mean precipitation, frequency of extreme cases and their possible
impacts on the locations considering the demography, economic parameters and other variables of
vulnerability are discussed. Results are supposed to provide information to strategies and practices of
adaptation in the region.

12-16 May 2014
AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS OF THE

LAGUNA 513, CORDILLERA BLANCA, PERU
Holger Frey (1); Javier García-Hernández (2); Mario Rohrer (3); Demian Schneider (1); Claudia
Giráldez (1); Sebastian Guillén Ludeña (4); César Gonzales Alfaro (5); Randy Muñoz Asmat (5);
Karen Price Rios (6) *; Luis Meza Román (7); 0; Alejo Cochachin Rapre (9); Nadine Salzmann (1)
Centre de Recherche sur l’Environnement Alpin (CREALP), Sion, Switzerland (2)
Meteodat, Zurich, Switzerland (3)
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland (4)
CARE Peru – Ancash, Huaraz, Peru (5)
CARE Peru, Lima, Peru (6)
contact: holger.frey@geo.uzh.ch
Abstract
In April 2010, an ice avalanche from Hualcán impacted a glacier lake (Laguna 513) in the Cordillera
Blanca, Peru. It triggered a flood wave that caused damage in downstream population centers,
including the city of Carhuaz. Here we present an Early warning system (EWS) that has been
designed and implemented following this event and that is currently going into its test and calibration
phase. EWS in high-mountain contexts are highly complex systems. They should, on the one hand,
include monitoring sensors, data and voice communication, and on the other hand, establish clear
institutional responsibilities and response, and essentially involve local people to ensure that
adequate actions are taken according to different warning levels. The different elements can be
categorized into (i) a technical, (ii) an institutional and (iii) a social level. For the EWS for the
Laguna 513 two measurement stations with automatic cameras, geophones, discharge measurement
and a meteorological station, as well as a repeater station. A data center was also set up in the
municipality of Carhuaz. In addition, different sensors and local observers ensure redundancy of the
system. Based on dynamic, physically based modeling of avalanches, lake displacement waves, and
lake outburst floods, critical warning parameters such as flood travel times and flood inundation
heights were modeled. Based on these modeling results and field mapping, a hazard map for the city
of Carhuaz has been elaborated, which in turn also serves as a basis for the planning of evacuation
routes. At the same time a protocol has been elaborated in collaboration with the local authorities,
including different alert levels and related measures to accomplish, as well as contact details of
responsible persons and their deputies. Parallel to the technical implementation, community based
efforts are undertaken to ensure effective response and sustainability.

12-16 May 2014
THE AMAZONIA SECURITY AGENDA: A NOVEL, INTEGRATED APPROACH TO

MANAGING HUMAN SECURITY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES IN
AMAZONIA AND BEYOND
Claudia Comberti (1,2); Helen Bellfield (1) *; Niki Mardas (1)

Global Canopy Programme, Oxford, UK (1)
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (2)
contact: claudia.comberti@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
Climate change impacts across Amazonia will be significant. Mid- to long-term temperature and
precipitation changes are predicted. However, current impacts are experienced in the form of
widespread and severe floods and droughts. These threaten human security, in terms of water, food,
energy and health security, for the people of Amazonia and beyond. Reducing vulnerability to these
threats presents a huge challenge to the nations that share Amazonia. Yet better understanding of
these complexities and a coordinated approach across various sectors can achieve this, to minimise
trade-offs and maximise synergies with activities already planned or realised. Ultimately, integration
with development, mitigation, forest conservation, national adaptation plans of action, and
indigenous land rights, amongst others, may be achieved. Whilst research into ecosystem services
has furthered understanding of the role of forest ecosystems in supporting human wellbeing, so far it
has not initiated the policy attention and response required. Indeed recent decades have seen the loss
of ecosystem services, partly through large-scale deforestation in the region. With the increasing
threat of climate change extremes, and the crucial role the Amazon rainforest ecosystem plays in
mitigation, adaptation and supporting human security across local, regional and global scales, a new
approach is needed. To address this, a new Amazon Security Agenda is proposed. This agenda draws
together existing research into ecosystem services and their importance in underpinning human
security locally and regionally, and develops understanding of the interdependencies between water,
food, energy and health security. It identifies the current and future threats to these securities, * a
novel discourse and approach to directly engage policymakers of the nations of Amazonia to
safeguard the human security of people of the region and beyond, in the face of climate extremes and
disasters. The Amazonia Security Agenda will develop indicators of human security, to feed a
regional security hotspot mapping mechanism. These indicators will be monitored across landscapes
to allow assessment and identification of security hotspots. Combining this information with real-
time climate and development data, the system will enable targeted action to reduce vulnerability to
extreme climatic events. In addition, the security discourse and indicators can aid engagement and
integration with other sectors, allowing development, mitigation and adaptation activities to be
security safeguarded. This paper presents initial findings, the security indicators developed, and
strategies to further the Amazonia Security Agenda aims across the region, proposing a model to
transform policy approaches to transboundary forest ecosystems globally.

12-16 May 2014
STUDYING TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL DISASTER LOSSES AND

CLIMATE CHANGE: IS VULNERABILITY THE MISSING LINK?
Reinhard Mechker (1,2) *; Laurens Bouwer (3)

IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (1)
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria (2)
Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands (3)
contact: mechler@iiasa.ac.at
Abstract
The recent IPCC-SREX report demonstrated for the first time comprehensively that anthropogenic
climate change is modifying weather and climate extremes. The report also documents, what has
been long known, that losses from natural disasters have increased strongly over the last decades.
Responding to the vigorous debate on whether or not anthropogenic climate change can be partially
attributed with the increased burden from climate-related events, the IPCC-SREX finds that the case
cannot be made today, and the key driver behind increases in losses has been increased population
and capital at risk. Yet, in the presence of many uncertainties and omissions involved in studying
trends in losses, the authors of the IPCC report did not exclude a role for climate change.Reviewing
and providing context to these statements, we focus on one key uncertainty identified by IPCC, that
is the incomplete consideration of vulnerability to natural hazards in projections of damages and
losses in a context characterized by a changing climate. We find that analyses have almost
exclusively focused on normalizing losses for changes in exposure, yet not for vulnerability, which
appears a major gap given the dynamic nature of vulnerability, and documented evidence regarding
decreases in vulnerability in many regions.By way of an example on observed and future losses from
riverine flooding in Bangladesh, we show that vulnerability has been substantially reduced over the
last decades owing to a number of factors. Considering the dynamic nature of vulnerability, projected
risk will still increase, yet at smaller increments compared to a static vulnerability case. Overall, the
analysis suggests that there are substantial benefits to implementing and supporting vulnerability-
reducing measures in light of climate adaptation. Finally, we emphasize the need for further taking
forward a risk-based perspective on modeling climate impacts in order to provide robust information
on the impacts and costs from extremes in a changing climate.

12-16 May 2014
EXPERIENCES FROM THE MT. ELGON ECOSYSTEM.
Paul Nteza (1) *

UNDP, Kampala, Uganda (1)
contact: paul.nteza@undp.org
Abstract
Uganda is heavily endowed with natural resources which are the main source of livelihood for the
majority of Ugandans. Uganda has good soils and biodiversity, ample vegetation cover, an attractive
climate and abundant water resources. Geographical highlights include; Lake Victoria, which is the
largest lake in Africa and the second largest freshwater lake in the world.Uganda is highly vulnerable
to climate change and its impacts are already being felt across the country. It is estimated that
droughts, floods, landslides, windstorms, and hailstorms annually destroy an average of 800,000
hectares of crops, making economic losses in excess of Uganda Shillings 120 billion.Several
adaptation technologies in the Mount Elgon have been utilized ensuring that nature based solutions
are utilized. This is the case of Ecosystem Based Adaptation (EbA) to Climate change. The EbA
strategy ensures that the biodiversity in the area including the humans in the area are at the center. It
is a participatory adaptation strategy that has seen some good progress. It is supported by a
partnership of UNDP, IUCN and UNEP.Existing institutional capacity and policy framework to
promote EbA approaches has been strengthened. The project has carried out a vulnerability and
Impact assessment (VIA) in the Mountain Elgon Ecosystem mixing the science and participatory
approaches. These have strengthened the decision making in implementing pilot initiatives in a way
of restoring ecosystems as a way of incentivising the community members. It is from these that the
EbA options are being assessed so as to make a case for EbA at the national level. Lots of lessons
have been learnt half way through this four year project. These have implications for Policy actions
at National level. Acknowledgment for this funding goes to the German Federal Ministry for
Environment and Nuclear Safety.

12-16 May 2014
HELPING NATURE HELP PEOPLE - ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION IN THE

BRAZILIAN DISCOVERY COAST.
Camila Donatti (1) *; Renata Pereira (3); Lee Hannah (1); David Hole (1); Emily Pidgeon (1);
Guilherme Dutra (2); Ivana Lamas (6); Tiago Pinheiro (6); Eduardo Camargo (3); Patrícia Baião (7);
0; Madeleine Bottrill (1); Rosimeiry Portela (1);
Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA (1)
Conservação Internacional do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (2)
Conservação Internacional do Brasil, Caravelas, BA, Brazil (3)
Conservation South Africa, Springbok, South Africa (4)
Conservation International, Brussels, Belgium (5)
Conservação Internacional do Brasil, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil (6)
contact: cdonatti@conservation.org
Abstract
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an
overall adaptation strategy to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. However,
initiatives that identify and implement ecosystem-based adaptation activities are still scarce. Our
project, supported by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Government, is filling
this gap by identifying, implementing and testing ecosystem-based adaptation activities in three very
diverse settings in Brazil, Philippines and South Africa, which will serve as models for amplification
of ecosystem-based adaptation in other areas. We will focus our presentation on the work that has
been developed in the Discovery coast and the Abrolhos shelf, in the northeast of Brazil. We will
present the results of the climate change vulnerability assessment that was conducted for this region,
through which we identified two EbA demonstrations to be implemented. One of those interventions
is the development of the municipal plan for protection and restoration of the Atlantic Forest in Porto
Seguro, the first of its kind to take EbA into account in Brazil. The other is the protection and
rehabilitation of a coral reef and its fish community, to ensure coastal protection from sea level rise
and changes in wave dynamics. We are conducting a series of activities, including enforcement of a
no-take zone, raising awareness about the importance of sustainable practices, and education about
the importance of protecting mangroves to reduce coastal erosion. Cost-effectiveness analyses are
underway and will generate information on the feasibility of EbA actions compared to more
traditional adaptation responses (e.g. sea walls). Through engagement with national- and
international-level policy makers, the results of the vulnerability assessment, EbA demonstrations
and the cost-effectiveness analysis will inform policy, which will amplify the impact of our EbA
demonstrations and will raise awareness of the potential for EbA to contribute to climate change
adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTIVE MONITORING OF ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION
Erik van Slobbe (1) *; Annemarie Groot (1); Luuk Brinkman (1); Pascual Artana (2)
Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands (1)
Technical University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain (2)
contact: erik.vanslobbe@wur.nl
Abstract
Coastal protection infrastructures around the globe are high priority areas for adaptation to climate
change. Innovation is sought by integrating ecosystem services in combination with ‘hard' flood
defence engineering and sometimes with other objectives into design and engineering. And therefore
resulting projects are characterized by ecosystem dynamics, multiple objectives and consequently by
involvement of multiple stakeholders. But as flood protection often remains the main objective the
stakes are high, which makes the governance of such projects a challenge. Monitoring of the results
of such projects is crucial for evaluation and learning. But due to the complex and experimental
character monitoring programs usually develop iteratively with design and engineering, such
monitoring is called ‘adaptive monitoring'. In practice adaptive monitoring proves difficult and no
established practice has yet emerged. Additionally, due to the unpredictable nature of the projects it
is challenging to define ‘state' indicators which are used to define and monitor the system before the
project takes place.This paper aims to define characteristics for adaptive monitoring at the onset of a
BwN project. We analyse monitoring programs and indicators used in three innovative flood defence
experiments in the Netherlands. We describe how the programs are structured, what monitoring
objectives are expected considering the project goals and what further research is needed to define
indicators that match these objectives. We also address the conflicts that arise when defining state
indicators while taking the adaptive nature of the monitoring program into account. On the basis of
these case studies challenges for further research are formulated.

12-16 May 2014
STORM WATER MANAGEMENT THROUGH RESTORATIONS OF WETLANDS AND

BUILDING OF CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR FLOOD PROTECTION AND WATER
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT.
José Wilmar da Silveira Neto (1) *

EMLURB, Fortaleza, Ceará/Nordeste, Brazil (1)
contact: wilmarsn@bol.com.br
Abstract
The problems caused by urban floods in Brazil and in the world are increasing more and more,
especially in small and medium cities where one observes a greater urban growth, which usually
happens in an unsustainable way. The urban flood is an event which may occur due to the natural
behavior of the rivers, where the excess of the volume of rain that can not be drained occupies the
floodplain and floods, according to the topography, and areas close to rivers, or it may occur because
of the effect of anthropogenic changes in urbanization due to the sealing surfaces and channeling of
rivers. A number of factors may be related to the occurrence of floods, including the lack of planning
for the occupation of watersheds, resulting in the occupation of areas considered at risk of flooding.
To mitigate flooding in urbanized basins, various structural alternatives associated with non-
structural actions can be applied. The preparation of a city´s flood control should consider the
watersheds on which urbanization develops. Public actions in many Brazilian cities are unduly
focused on structural measures with the view only of civil engineers and without the participation of
professionals from other areas such as biologists, foresters, agronomists and ecologists. This work
shows the importance of maintaining wetlands to prevent flooding by temporarily storing and slowly
releasing storm water, especially in riparian zones around the margin which can be planted with
flood tolerant trees, bushes and other native species. It also shows that the wetlands reduce water
flow, thus allowing sediments and associated pollutants to settle out. This works also reviews the
contribution which constructed wetlands can make to integrated urban water management by
increasing storm water storage and infiltration volumes and by reducing the volumes of storm water
discharged to the sewer system and to wastewater treatment plants.

12-16 May 2014
CHALLENGES FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY CORAL REEFS IN

BRAZIL IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
Carla Elliff (1) *; Ruy Kikuchi (1)

Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil (1)
contact: carlaelliff@gmail.com
Abstract
Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services, such as sea food products, raw material for
various uses, shoreline protection, maintenance of habitats and biodiversity, tourism and recreation,
among others. Coastal populations are especially dependent upon the delivery of these services, both
in cases of extreme events (e.g. tsunamis, oil spills) and in daily life (e.g. livelihood). However,
adaptation to climate change is still relatively unknown territory regarding the ecosystem services
provided by coastal environments, such as coral reefs. Management strategies usually consider
climate change as a distant issue and rarely include ecosystem services in decision-making and
public policies. Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable environments to climate change,
considering the negative impact that increased ocean temperature and acidity have on the organisms
that compose this unique ecosystem. If no actions are taken, the most likely scenario to occur will be
of extreme decline in the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs. Loss of biodiversity due to the
pressures of ocean warming and acidification will lead to increased price of seafood products,
negative impact on food security, and ecological imbalances. Also, sea-level rise and fragile
structures due to carbonate dissolution will increase vulnerability to storms, which can lead to
shoreline erosion and ultimately threaten coastal communities. Both these conditions will
undoubtedly affect recreation and tourism, which are often the most important use values in the case
of coral reef systems. Adaptation strategies to climate change must take on an ecosystem-based
approach with continuous monitoring programs, so that multiple ecosystem services are considered
and not only retrospective trends are analyzed. Brazilian coral reefs have been monitored on a
regular basis since 2000 and, considering that these marginal coral reefs of the eastern Atlantic are
naturally under stressful conditions (e.g. high sedimentation rates), inshore reefs of Brazil, such as
those in Tinharé-Boipeba, have shown lower vitality indices due to greater impacts from the
proximity to the coastal area (e.g. pollution, overfishing, sediment run-off). This chronic negative
impact must be addressed to increase coral reef resilience and guarantee the adaptation of this
ecosystem to climate change. Thus, considering that the majority of the marine ecosystem services
we benefit from are provided from coastal habitats, of which coral reefs play an important role, the
challenge at hand is in fact the interaction between local factors and climate change.

12-16 May 2014
ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION IN PERU.
Silvia Giada (1); Edith Fernandez-Baca (2,1) *; Pablo Dourojeanni (2,1); James Leslie (2); Doris
Cordero (3)
UNEP, Panama, Panama (1)
UNDP, Lima, Peru (2)
IUCN, Quito, Ecuador (3)
contact: edith.fernandez-baca@undp.org
Abstract
The Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) in mountain ecosystems Programme is a collaborative
initiative of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Union for
Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), funded
by Germany's Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
(BMU) (http://www.ebaflagship.org/). The programme is implemented in three countries, namely
Uganda, Nepal and Peru. In Peru, the programme is commissioned by the Ministry of Environment
of Peru (MINAM for its Spanish acronym) and is implemented in the Nor Yauyos Cochas Landscape
Reserve with the support of the National Service of Natural Protected Areas (SERNANP for its
Spanish acronym) and the local communities.The Nor Yauyos Cochas Landscape Reserve, including
its buffer area, is located in the Andean high mountain range, with an extension of about 330 km2
and a population of 10,000 people, disseminated in a number of communities of difficult access,
mainly living of subsistence agriculture and cattle farming of cows, sheep and Andean camelids. The
area has been inhabited for many centuries, with high population density in pre-Columbian times, as
prove the extensive terracing in the slopes and the ancient irrigation systems. The pre-Columbian
cultural heritage is still present in the communities, particularly in the agricultural practices and the
way they manage the natural resources and the landscape, as well as in the ways they adapt to the
cyclical climatic variability that characterize the area. Therefore, a strong relation between traditional
knowledge and climate change adaptation exists that represents a research opportunity for the
project.In order to identify EbA measures, the project has worked along two complementary paths by
engaging in a Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment (VIA) study, as a scientific information base,
and by formulating "non regrets" measures based on local perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive
capacity at community level. Both approaches include innovative elements. The VIA study had to
overcome challenges posed by the size of the area with regards to the scale of climatic models and in
finding the best way to include ecosystem services in the assessment itself. The "non regrets"
approach extensively consulted with selected communities and scientific experts in order to
overcome the lack of information which would come from the VIA study. In addition, the Project has
formulated criteria for conceptualizing, selecting and prioritizing EbA measures that are useful for
both approaches.

12-16 May 2014
ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN

CENTRAL AMERICA.
M. Ruth Martínez-Rodríguez (1) *; Celia Harvey (1); Raffaele Vignola (2); Pável Bautista (2);
Camila Donatti (2); Milagro Saborío-Rodríguez (2)
Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA (1)
CATIE, Turrialba, Cartago, Costa Rica (2)
contact: rmartinez@conservation.org
Abstract
In Central America, smallholder farmers are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate
change, as they have small land holdings, are often poor, and have limited resources or capacity to
implement adaptation measures. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) could offer an important means
for farmers to adapt to climate change, however little is known about which EbA measures are used
by farmers, how effective different EbA strategies are in reducing farmer vulnerability, and how
promising strategies could be successfully scaled up. Such information is critical for parties
interested in improving the resiliency of smallholder farmers to climate change and ensuring the
sustainable management of ecosystems. To explore the potential role of EbA in improving
smallholder farmers' resilience to climate change, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 120
experts (experienced agronomists knowledgeable of coffee and subsistence agriculture) in Honduras,
Guatemala and Costa Rica. Specifically, we asked experts which management practices are effective
at reducing the impacts of extreme weather events on smallholder coffee and basic grains farming
systems, how different strategies reduce the impacts of climate change, and what conditions are
necessary for scaling up use of effective EbA strategies. Our study highlights that while there are
numerous adaptation measures available for smallholder coffee and smallholder subsistence farmers,
only a handful of these approaches can be considered EbA. The most common EbA approaches in
smallholder coffee systems include shade management (e.g., establishing or increasing trees in
coffee plantations, or more actively managing shade trees), soil conservation and reforestation. In
basic grain production, common EbA approaches include the use of the quezungual system (an
agroforestry system that consists in growing basic grains under regenerated scattered trees) and soil
conservation practices. These practices enhance the adaptive capacity of the system by improving
soil fertility, enhancing soil carbon, increasing water infiltration and increasing soil moistures,
among other mechanisms. While many of the EbA approaches are relatively simple to implement, a
number of barriers currently preclude their broad scale use. Key barriers include insecure land
tenure, lack of access to technology transfer, and lack of resources for practice establishment. Our
study highlights the potential of EbA for reducing smallholder farmer vulnerability to climate change
and also provides key insights into how interested parties could promote the adoption of these
approaches.

12-16 May 2014
ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION IN TWO HIGHLY DIVERSE REGIONS IN THE

PERUVIAN AMAZON.
Renzo Piana (1) *; James Leslie (1)

Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Lima, Peru (1)
contact: renzo.piana@undp.org
Abstract
Indigenous peoples are considered among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet this is seldom
acknowledged in development policies. This is particularly acute in areas where the presence of
government authorities is scarce. The United Nations Development Programme is implementing an
innovative project (known as EBA Amazonia) along with the Peruvian government and indigenous
peoples, with the objective of building this population’s resilience to climate risks through the
adaptive management of two Communal Reserves and their buffer areas in the Peruvian Amazon.
With a geographic focus on two high conservation value areas rich in biological and cultural
diversity, EBA Amazonia places 28 neighboring indigenous communities – and the ecosystem
services upon which they depend – at the center of its strategy to enhance adaptive capacity to
climate change. The project’s main entry point is the development of a shared understanding of
climate vulnerability at the local level. Climate change scenarios will be elaborated to better
understand possible future trends in precipitation and temperature changes. In parallel, the project
team accompanies these indigenous communities as they identify and prioritize ecosystem services
that are of greatest relevance for their wellbeing and livelihoods. These ecosystem services are
examined in terms of their exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Through a participatory
bottom-up approach, the communities and local authorities are engaged to plan and implement
ecosystem based adaptation measures that ensure the provision of the prioritized ecosystem services,
and the flow of benefits to the dependent local population. Particular emphasis is placed on
incorporating traditional knowledge and local perceptions related to climate change into the
vulnerability analysis and adaptation measures. The project also contributes to strengthening local
capacities to promote indigenous people´s participation in protected areas management and in
climate change policies at the national and subnational scales. The EBA measures to be promoted
through the project will deliver measurable benefits in terms of enhanced food security, through the
promotion of locally appropriate food crops and a valuation of non timber forest products.
Traditional knowledge will be documented and applied - through peer-to-peer learning opportunities
- towards the promotion of protein-rich plant species, the exchange of drought resistant crops
between families and communities, the conservation of biological corridors that allow wildlife transit
under extreme weather conditions, and the implementation of healthy alternatives to fish production
and consumption in areas contaminated by alluvial gold mining.

12-16 May 2014
EVALUATING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION

TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARID LANDS IN SOUTH.
David Hole (1) *; Ancois Carien de Villiers (2); Amanda Bourne (2); Nalini Rao (1)
Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA (1)
Conservation South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa (2)
contact: dhole@conservation.org
Abstract
Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA) harness the capacity of nature to buffer human
communities against the adverse impacts of climate change through the sustainable delivery of
ecosystem services. As such, EbA are generally deployed in the form of targeted management,
conservation and restoration activities and are often focused on specific ecosystem services with the
potential to reduce climate change exposures (i.e. ‘adaptation' services). The potential scope of EbA
to help reduce people's vulnerability to a range of exposures is broad. Ecosystems deliver adaptation
services that can help meet adaptation needs across multiple human development sectors, including
disaster risk reduction (through flood regulation and storm surge protection), food security (from
fisheries to agro-forestry), sustainable water management (via water purification and flow regulation)
and livelihoods diversification (through increasing resource-use options or tourism).However,
multiple challenges and uncertainties surrounding the operationalization of EbA remain, particularly
at the project scale. A key information gap is our understanding of the contexts in which EbA
provides a cost-effective adaptation option, relative to alternative adaptation approaches. Here we
examine the cost-effectiveness of rehabilitating degraded rangelands in the arid north west of South
Africa, as a means of reducing the vulnerability of local stakeholders to two related climate change
driven risks: 1) decreased rangeland productivity, resulting in reduced livestock production; and 2)
increases in soil erosion and its impact on local road infrastructure. We compare cost:benefit ratios of
rangeland rehabilitation with alternative adaptation options, including upgrading of the road network
and emergency fodder provision to support livestock during drought periods. Our results demonstrate
that EbA, in this particular adaptation context, is the least cost-effective option, principally as a result
of the high costs of rangeland rehabilitation and the relatively low per capita benefits provided by the
adaptation services. However, this study also demonstrates the complex challenges EbA projects face
when attempting to robustly factor in all relevant economic costs and benefits, particularly when the
adaptation benefits are only manifest many years in the future. It also highlights the importance of
including a broader understanding of the multiple (non-monetary) social dimensions of adaptation,
into local and regional-scale adaptation planning.

12-16 May 2014
CONSERVATION OF COASTAL WATERSHEDS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE.
Helena Cotler (1) *; Mariana Bellot (2); Sofia Cortina (3); Renée González (4); Sergio Graff (3);
Luis Fueyo (2); Andrew Rhodes (2)
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, D.F., Mexico (1)
National Commission for Protected Areas, D.F., Mexico (2)
National Forestry Commission, D.F., Mexico (3)
Mexican Fund for the Conservation of Nature, D.F., Mexico (4)
Abstract
Multiple climatic and non-climatic pressures are threatened the ecosystems services in Mexico and
its adaptive capacity to climate change.Various models predict that hurricanes will intensify, and
drought and forest fires will increase. Coastal communities will be more vulnerable to flooding, and
communities in the mountains will suffer increasingly from landslides, drought, and fires. The
impacts of climate change will be most evident in the coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Gulf of California. The threat of these coastal watersheds is increasing due to poor land use planning
and lack of enforcement of environmental regulations. If no action is taken, studies show a 35%
additional loss of rain forests and 18% additional loss of temperate forests by 2050 in these two
regions. Such forest losses would be accompanied by significant loss of biodiversity, GHGs, and
other sustaining ecosystems goods and services. To reverse these trends and promote adaptation to
climate change, a multi-institutional effort is required. In this sense, three governmental
organisations and one non-governmental developed a project to be implemented with support from
Global Environmental Facilities (GEF).The proposed project strategy builds on advances made by
the environmental sector in Mexico. The National Commission for Protected Areas (CONANP) will
strengthen existing and create new protected areas following the Climate Change Strategy for
Protected Areas. Beyond Protected Areas, the National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR) will
mitigate climate change through activities aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, as well
as promoting sustainability. Through payments for ecosystem services (PES) forest remnants that
would otherwise be transformed will be conserved. To reduce pressure to these forest fragments, the
project will implement integrated land management plans in degraded areas, while sustainable forest
management will be promoted within the watersheds. The National Institute of Ecology and Climate
Change (INECC) strengthen monitoring of land use change, biodiversity degradation, carbon stocks
and socioeconomic factors, while the Mexican Fund for the Conservation of Nature (FMCN) will
provide its administrative and fundraising expertise, as well as links with the civil society. The
project baseline includes more than a decade of experience in these activities by each institution, as
well as current activities being financed in the pre-selected watersheds.

12-16 May 2014
ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION IN ACTION: ENSURING SUSTAINABLE WATER

SUPPLY FOR THE LONG TERM IN BOGOTA, COLOMBIA AND MENDOZA,
ARGENTINA.
Alfred Grunwaldt (1); Alejandro Deeb (1); Maricarmen Esquivel (1); Walter Vergara (1) *
Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA (1)
contact: maricarmene@iadb.org
Abstract
Our goal is to present progress in the implementation of two Ecosystem-based Adaptation projects.
(1) Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts in Water Regulation and Supply for the Area of
Chingaza-Sumapaz-Guerrero in Bogota Colombia. The Second National Communication (SNC)
submitted by Colombia to the UNFCCC indicates that between 2011 and 2040, 70 percent of the
high mountain zone in the country's territory will be affected by the potentially strong or very strong
impacts of climate change, especially increases in temperature and consequently the retreat of
existing glaciers and a net loss in water storage, in both mountain wetlands and glaciers.The
Chingaza-Sumapaz-Guerrero Conservation Corridor contains 14 watersheds that are strategic in
terms of water supply for Bogotá, D.C. and its adjacent municipalities (e.g. around 69% of water
supplied to the capital comes from the Chingaza Corridor, EAAB, 2010). The goal of this project is
to strengthen the hydrological buffering and regulation capacity of the upper watershed of Chingaza-
Sumapaz-Guerrero which supplies drinking water to the Bogotá metropolitan area and its adjoining
rural municipalities. The project will demonstrate how to incorporate climate change considerations
into watershed planning and management programs associated with high mountain ecosystems. (2)
Adapting to Climate Change Implications for Hydrologic Systems in Cuyo, Argentina. The province
of Mendoza is characterized by a fragile and complex environment where the availability of water
resources is limited. The climate is arid to semiarid, and the average annual rainfall is about 200 mm.
Despite the environmental constraints, 4.8 % of the province is composed of irrigated oasis where 95
% of the population is settled. In recent decades there has been a reduction in the levels of snow
(precipitation), a clear retreat of glaciers and increased cycles of drought, which has affected the
river flow. The temperature, both at the foot of the mountain and its summit has shown incremental
trends, and this trend is expected to continue. In a region where water resources are so scarce, it is
necessary to take measures in the short term. The main adaptation measure for the area is to optimize
the use fo water in the basin, as well as identifying and extending practices that prevent loss or
achieve better outcomes for resource users. The project will finance, among other measures,
ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE ADAPTATION MEASURES TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY OF

AUSTRALIAN POWER DISTRIBUTION INFRASTRUCTURE
Paraic Ryan (1) *; Mark Stewart (1); Nathan Spencer (2)

University of Newcastle: Climate Adaptation Engineering for Extreme Events Cluster, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia (1)
URI Engineering, Wallsend, New South Wales, Australia (2)
contact: paraic.ryan@newcastle.edu.au
Abstract
There are approximately five million timber power poles in Australia with a total net worth of over
$10 billion. In the United States it is estimated that there are between 120 and 200 million timber
power poles currently in service. Surprisingly, however, there is a lack of understanding as to how
possible increases in wind speeds and deterioration due to climate change could affect these essential
infrastructure networks. Significantly, there is also a lack of research investigating possible climate
adaptation measures for power distribution networks. The work detailed in this study examines the
possible impacts of climate change on the wind vulnerability of timber power distribution poles, and
investigates possible climate change adaptation strategies. This is achieved through Monte Carlo
simulation modelling techniques which assess the structural reliability of timber power poles. The
model incorporates both the effects of deterioration of the poles over time, and the effect of standard
maintenance actions. The analysis indicates that the effect of climate change on Australian power
pole failure rates will lead to increases in annual costs of between $18 million and $42 million,
depending on the climate change scenario considered. If considering a network on the scale of the
United States utility pole system, predicted annual costs increases due to climate change induced
wind failures range from $550 million to $1.3 billion. Having established the high consequences of
possible changes in climate for power distribution infrastructure, the appropriateness of a number of
climate adaptation measures are investigated. The results of this climate adaptation strategy
assessment are presented in the form of a risk and cost benefit analysis. This allows the effectiveness
of each strategy to be expressed in a single economic based figure, making the assessment a
powerful decision making tool.

12-16 May 2014
A MULTI-SCALE ADAPTATION NEXUS FOR RESILIENT NATIONAL BUILT ASSETS

TO REDUCE CLIMATE RISKS AND MITIGATE DISASTERS
Xiaoming Wang (1) *

Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Melbourne, VIC, Australia
(1)
contact: xiaoming.wang@csiro.au
Abstract
The recently released IPCC 5th Assessment Report on Climate Change for Policymakers further
affirms the continuing trend of global warming and their observed geophysical effects (IPCC, 2013).
Thus, it is important to explicitly take into account the impacts of a changing climate and disaster
risks in developing built assets with the nature of a long service life. The paper presents a multi-scale
Climate Adaptation Engineering (CAE) approach, which extends traditional engineering knowledge
and practices to take into account current and future climate hazards on concerns, and develop
corrective as well as prospective measures to ensure built assets meet not only the current but also
future needs, at the scales of materials, structures, systems, and systems of systems. Moreover, multi-
level instruments to enable the corresponding multi-scale climate adaptation engineering are also
introduced, represented by standards, planning, and regulations and polices, creating a multi-scale
adaptation nexus for the development of resilient national built assets to reduce climate risks and
mitigate the impact of natural disasters. To demonstrate the adaptation nexus, the paper firstly
introduces an approach to develop resilient construction materials, such as concrete, timber and steel,
by enhanced design standards, to maintain durability under changing climate. Secondly, structural
designs to improve built asset performance are also discussed by examples of building wall designs
to improve heatwave resistance, and energy efficient buildings to accommodate future changing
climate. Thirdly, an approach to develop green built-natural environment systems enabled by better
urban planning is presented to reduce the impact of increasing heatwave and urban heat island.
Furthermore, an approach considering integrated standard and planning changes to develop
adaptation options is then demonstrated by the development of coastal buildings under the threats of
inundation and/or extreme winds. Finally, national adaptation policy interventions are further
examined to demonstrate the effectiveness to develop multi-scale climate adaptation nexus through
the improvement in standards, planning and policy development, integrated with engineering
solutions.

12-16 May 2014
NEW MATERIALS APPLIED TO CO2 CAPTURE BY CHEMICAL-LOOPING

PROCESSES
Pedro Henrique Lopes Nunes Abreu dos Santos (1); Renato Dias Barbosa (1) *; Gustavo Torres
Moure (2); Gilberto Marques da Cruz (1); José Augusto Jorge Rodrigues (1)
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista - SP, Brazil (1)
CENPES/PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil (2)
contact: jajr@lcp.inpe.br
Abstract
Among several industrial processes studied nowadays employed for CO2 capture and generation of
energy, Chemical-Looping Combustion (CLC) and Chemical-Looping Reforming (CLR) can be
emphasized, which are represented by the following reactions:CLC: CH4 + 4MeO → 4Me0 + CO2 +
2H2OCLR: CH4 + MeO → Me0 + CO + 2H2In both processes, the atmospheric oxygen is replaced
by oxygen contained in oxides (MeO), which are called oxygen carriers. In this manner, CH4 or
natural gas combustion products can be captured and stored or employed as reagents and not released
into the atmosphere.LCP/INPE in collaboration with PETROBRAS developed new oxygen carriers,
some of them unpublished in the literature, which favor the production of a clean energy source
(H2), at the same time allowing CO and CO2 capture.After testing more traditional materials
employed as oxygen carriers, such as NiO/α-Al2O3, NiO/γ-Al2O3, and NiO/NiAl2O4, it was
observed that they exclusively favor the CLC process, with or without addition of water vapor to the
fuel.A new material, perovskite La0,6Sr0,4NiO3, synthesized at the Rio Grande do Norte Federal
University, was exhaustively tested. The results obtained again showed a high selectivity to the CLC
process.Due to the experience gathered at LCP/INPE regarding synthesis and application of
materials composed by niobium and tungsten, applied in satellite propulsion and bearing engines for
satellite launching vehicles, it was decided to test these materials in the form of oxides in CLC and
CLR processes. In this manner, oxygen carriers composed by bulk Nb2O5 and WO3 were tested and
showed high selectivity in the CLR process; however, they were not appropriate for industrial
application since their low specific numbers of sites.In order to increase the density of oxygen sites,
supported niobium and tungsten oxides were employed. They were obtained via impregnation over
γ-Al2O3. The resulting materials, AlNbO4/γ-Al2O3 and WO3/γ-Al2O3, were highly selective to the
CLR process, generating H2 e CO with activities that allow their utilization industrially.It can be
concluded that the work done so far deserve an assured continuity, since the results obtained refer to
unpublished materials in the literature that are highly selective to the generation of a clean energy
source (H2), from combustion of natural gas.

12-16 May 2014
RISK-BASED ADAPTATION ANALYSIS OF INFRASTRUCTURES IN LATIN AMERICA
Luca Garre (1) *

DNV-GL, Hoevik, Norway (1)
contact: luca.garre@dnv.com
Abstract
This work addresses the importance of system knowledge and modelling in the context of climate
change adaptation of large and capital intensive infrastructures. More specifically it is advocated
that, together with the inclusion of climatic factors and the uncertainty associated with them - which
is a broadly recognized requirement of any adaptation analysis - system functions and the economic
conditions in which the infrastructure operates can also have a major impact on the optimal way to
respond to anticipated climate change effects. For short to medium time windows the effects
associated with this second class of factors may actually be more relevant than the climatic
effects.Owing to the overall uncertainty associated with projections of future climatic and economic
conditions, the analysis is based on a risk-based framework aimed at guiding adaptation investments
under uncertainty. The framework is based on the probabilistic quantification of the various
variables of interest, together with the monetary quantification of losses associated with system
disruptions and benefits brought by alternative adaptive strategies. This choice enables the direct
application of cost-benefit analysis of adaptation; by this, it provides a transparent basis for the
allocation of investments/resources and the selection of cost optimal adaptive strategies.
Furthermore, robustness of the alternative adaptive strategies, the necessity of dynamic adaptation
and the role that large infrastructures play within the surrounding communities and economy will
also be illustrated.The paper will motivate the above points departing from an adaptation case study
in Central America.

12-16 May 2014
THE CONTRIBUTION OF HYDROPOWER INFRASTRUCTURES TO DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AN ALPINE ENVIRONMENT
- EXAMPLES FROM AUSTRIA
Matthias Huttenlau (1) *; Manuel Plörer (1,2); Stefan Achleitner (2); Christian Zangerl (1,3);
Christoph Prager (1); Katrin Schneider (1)
alpS – Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria (1)
Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, Department of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (2)
Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria (3)
contact: huttenlau@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Modern societies strongly depend on the availability of energy. In order to achieve Climate Change
Goals of national and international climate policies, an emission reduction including a change of the
energy mix is essential. Concerning this, in Central Europe the temporal fluctuation of solar and
wind energy requires an efficient energy storage and energy supply, especially to cover peak loads in
the electricity grid. Therefore, hydropower plants in the European Alps play a vital role within the
national energy markets.Beside this economical factor, well designed and managed hydropower
plants can reduce flood risks and may act as substantial component within Disaster Risk Reduction
(DRR) policies of Alpine valleys. Considering climate change induced variations of precipitation
extremes and increased fluvio-glacial discharge on both local and regional scales, hydropower plants
may be even more relevant. In scenarios with an increase of precipitation extremes and thus more
frequent floods, hydropower plants can be of increasing relevance in the context of Climate Change
Adaptation (CCA). However, considering uncertainties of CC scenarios, any associated adaption
strategies and implementations (addressing economical, ecological and social aspects) have to be
discussed. Thus responsible decision makers require medium- to long-term basis data and scenarios
on which they can rely on.This topic is covered by thematically overlapping research projects
conducted in the Austrian Alps which will be presented and summarized herein. Current flood risks
and the potential of risk reduction (avoided losses) by different hydropower infrastructures (retention
reservoirs, diversions or combined structures) at different locations in the catchment area have been
analysed and evaluated systematically. As bed-load processes play a significant role in alpine river
morphology and for the dynamic river processes, they are considered explicitly. Beside the
characterisation of current flow regimes, future potential scenarios of climate change-driven
modifications in flow regimes are considered. Different spatially distributed scenarios of hydropower
infrastructures are evaluated regarding their potential of flood reductions under current and future
environment conditions. Beside discharge and bed-load transport also the potential exposure of
hydropower infrastructures to erosion and landslide processes under climatic change conditions
(glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and increased peak discharge) has to be considered in Alpine
environments. Based on well-documented case-studies and ongoing research, a variety of direct and
indirect interactions of geological-morphological processes and hydropower infrastructures are taken

12-16 May 2014
into account. As an overall aim, the potential contribution of hydropower infrastructures to DRR and
CCA can be quantitatively analysed.

12-16 May 2014
PATTERNS OF CABOCLO PERCEPTIONS AND RESPONSES TO FLOOD REGIME

CHANGES ACROSS THE AMAZON ESTUARY
Nathan Vogt (1) *; Miguel Vasquez-Pinedo (2); Eduardo Brondízio (3); Fernando Ribeiro (4); Katia
Fernandes (2); Oriana Almeida (5); Sergio Rivero (5)
Columbia University, New York, NY, USA (2)
Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA (3)
IEPA, Macapa, Amapa, Brazil (4)
Federal University of Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil (5)
contact: ndvogt@gmail.com
Abstract
Recent studies have shown there is high spatial and temporal variability in how climate is driving
change in flood regimes across the Amazon estuary, but less is understood about socio-cultural
adaptations to those changes. In this paper a suite of methodologies including ethnographic, hydro-
climate, archival and remote sensing are used to investigate landscape and livelihood responses of
riverine farmers to these changes in flood regimes over the last 40 years. We argue that changes in
flood regimes are not only creating constraints, but also opportunities for farmers and that these vary
across the estuary. Flood changes include higher and longer spring tide floods in dry season that can
prevent planting or reduce productivity of annual crops in the floodplains. Lateral erosion in some
secondary streams in too becoming severe. In the South Channel that is more influenced by the
Atlantic, saltwater intrusion in extreme dry years can stress some annual crops. However, expert
farmers report that these floods also increases productivity and expands production season of some
floodplain fructiferous species. Management of those species along forest streams can secure more
sediments and increases food supplies in streams to increase stocks of shrimp, peixe do mato and
large channel fish that prey on them. Saltwater intrusion temporarily expands range of high value,
saltwater species. Analysis of archival and remotely sensed data show riverine farmers across the
estuary are replacing floodplain agricultural systems that are more susceptible to extreme floods with
more flood and salinity tolerant Açai agroforestry/shrimp/fishing systems, that also increase
household incomes, over last 40 years.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WOMEN'S LIVELIHOOD IN THE COASTAL AREAS

OF BANGLADESH: VULNERABILITIES VERSUS ADAPTABILITIES
Muhammad Asaduzzaman (1) *; Salim Momtaz (1); Meg Sherval (1)

The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia (1)
contact: salim0707@gmail.com
Abstract
Bangladesh is frequently cited as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change because of
its disadvantageous geographic location; flat and low-lying topography; high population density;
high levels of poverty; reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors. This study
examines the vulnerability and adaptability of women to climate change, and the possible resilient
activities for sustainable livelihood. Shyamnagar upazila (sub-district) of Satkhira district in the
south-western region was selected as study area. This area is known for the severe damages it
sustained from the recent extreme climatic events. Data were collected from a sample of 120 women
using a structured questionnaire. Furthermore, 6 focus group discussions were conducted with 20-25
people in each group and a number of key informants were also interviewed. The results show that
several climate change induced situations have been affecting this area for the last few decades.
These include salinity, frequent occurrence of disasters (e.g. cyclone), extreme weather conditions,
water logging, sea level rise, etc. Women are particularly suffering from income loss, health
problems, lack of access to food, malnutrition, housing and drinking water shortages. Data suggest
that women are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts as they have less mobility and less
education due to social and religious barriers. The absence of programs designed to empower women
restricts their ability to take decisions on important issues including natural disasters as well as social
and economic events. Their options for adapting to extreme climatic events and consequent effects
are also very limited which put them in an insecure position. Concerted efforts from all concerned
are required both at the national and the grass-roots levels for the emancipation of vulnerable women
in rural areas that would empower women and facilitate appropriate adaptation decisions.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO SEA-LEVEL RISE AND CONTRIBUTIONS FOR

ADAPTATION ON A BARRIER ISLAND
Paulo Sousa (1) *; Eduardo Siegle (1)

contact: sousaph@gmail.com
Abstract
The Ilha Comprida barrier island is an elongated island with an area of about 188 km² and beach
extension of 65 km, located in the southern coast of São Paulo (Brazil). The aim of this work is to
analyze wave climate, local morphodynamics and occupation process in an integrated way, identify
major hazards for the island and provide information about exposure, sensitivity and resiliency to
coastal hazards in local and regional scales. Methods consist of (1) field experiments to obtain
information on island's topography and beach morphology, numerical modeling to understand wave
climate and the review of cold fronts incidence for the region. After identifying hazards and most
vulnerable areas, (2) an analysis of exposition, sensibility and resilience for the island has been
carried out. Vulnerability assessment to sea-level rise showed that the main factors that contribute to
increased vulnerability are low land elevation of almost all the island area and energetic events that
encompass cold fronts and astronomical and meteorological tides. The number of cold fronts has
lowered in the last decade. Most frequent waves are those from south and southeast, having
determinant role on coastal erosion. The island has experienced coastal erosion in the vicinity of the
inlets in the north and the south. Hazards are related in short term with flooding events, in medium
term with coastal erosion and in long term with SLR. Exposure includes social and environmental
components and characteristics of hazards are 3.5 cold fronts/month with magnitude varying
according to the tide and duration of 2-3 days; coastal erosion promoting economic losses to people
who live near the coast in the northern part of the island. There, inlet migration generated a coastal
erosion of about 7.4 m/yr between 1962 and 2009. The rate of SLR for Ilha Comprida is estimated at
4.2 mm/yr, however most of the damage on the island is caused by human activities and natural
processes acting in short term. Sensitivity is related to human (residents and local commerce and
industry) and environmental conditions (marine and estuarine resources, vegetation and fishery). In
respect to resiliency, there is no planning considering the impacts observed in this work. As part of
adaptation measures, it is important to conduct long term monitoring of coastal processes and beach
morphodynamics, avoid occupation of areas under severe erosion, environmental education and new
policies considering coastal erosion, flooding events and SLR.

12-16 May 2014
SEA FLOODING AND MIGRATION IN COASTAL DELTAS. THE CASE OF DANGBE

EAST DISTRICT, GHANA
Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe (1) *; Felix Nyamedor (1)

Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana (1)
contact: scodjoe@ug.edu.gh
Abstract
Though, coastal deltas are amongst the most dynamic natural environments that support life on earth,
they are gradually becoming most dangerous places to live due to sea level rise (SLR). In Africa,
major cities such as Accra, Lagos, Cairo, Douala and Monrovia are all situated within 1.5 kilometers
from the coast that makes them vulnerable to climate change stressors from SLR. Recommendations
from scientific studies, and opinions expressed in the popular press on communities with threat from
SLR thus far have mainly leaned towards relocation and resettlement. Yet, it is no secret that many
communities under threat from any form of environmental hazard including SLR have refused to
relocate due to cultural, social, and economic attachments. What has not been fully explored in the
literature is what these communities do to circumvent the threat from SLR, and how differently
gendered these coping and adaptation strategies are. This paper therefore seeks to fill this knowledge
lacuna. First, the paper provides evidence of sea level rise through community perceptions. Second,
it examines the impact of SLR (sea flooding) on migration intentions and, third, it ascertains the
coping and adaptation (insitu) strategies that predispose some members of these communities to stay.
These would be undertaken through the lenses of male and female heads of households in the study
communities. Revealing these strategies will provide governments of developing countries other
alternatives to mass relocation and resettlement during environmental hazards, since mass relocation
and resettlement schemes may be too expensive to undertake.

12-16 May 2014
CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS OF COMMUNITY BASED

ADAPTATION: SHARING EXPERIENCE OF COASTAL BANGLADESH
Mehdi Azam (1) *

Department of Sociology, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia (1)
contact: mehdi.azam@mq.edu.au
Abstract
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the two most vulnerable coastal districts of
Khulna and Bagerhat in Bangladesh by analysing both current and predicted changes to the coastal
environment and livelihood patterns. In particular, it examines the climate change adaptation
strategies undertaken at the grass-roots level, in order to propose improved strategies for
mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation. Although some community based
adaptation strategies through livelihood diversification have already been implemented to mitigate
the impacts of climate change, but there seems to be a lack of adoption of these initiatives at the local
level. Accordingly, this paper examines ways to more effectively implement strategies that will
mitigate the impacts of climate change in the affected communities. Our first principal finding is that
the coastal region of Bangladesh currently experiences livelihood and food insecurity as a result of
the impacts of climate change. In particular, large numbers of people are being displaced, either
through a temporary move to find work during the lean seasons, or a permanent move to another
place to avoid the unstable living conditions experienced in these vulnerable coastal districts. Our
second finding is that the climate change adaptation initiatives currently implemented in the
vulnerable coastal districts of Bangladesh are inadequate to support the huge number of people
affected by the impacts of climate change in a way that will ensure the security of their livelihood.
Accordingly, we conclude that less overlapping and more effective integrated actions between
communities, civil society organisations, NGOs and various local government departments are
needed in order to support community based adaptation and build a climate change resilient
community at the grass-roots level.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY OF AREAS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY INCREASES IN GLOBAL

MEAN SEA LEVEL (GMSL) FROM PROJECTIONS BY 2100, IN NATAL / RN - BRAZIL
Erminio Fernandes (1) *; Márcia Pimentel (2); Mariana Mello (1); Wellingtton Fernandes (2)
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil (1)
Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA, Belém, Pará, Brazil (2)
contact: erminio.fernandes@ufrnet.br
Abstract
According to the projections of global mean sea level (GMSL) rising from 5th report of
"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis"
(IPCC, 2013), and considering that tide heights is above today's mean sea level at Natal reach up to
2,6 m (CHM, 2013), it is likely that the mean of IPCC's projections (0.54 m) and the maximum (0.98
m, RCP8.5) will affect the shore until 2100, with elevation local quotas of 3.14 and 3.57 m,
respectively. Natal city, Rio Grande do Norte, is located at the coastal zone and is subjected to the
ocean-atmosphere-continent dynamics and interactions. It has a diversity of environments that are a
great landscape scenical natural heritage, which could be divided, at least, in 3 distinct coastal
systems: 1) Beach-cliff-dune system; 2) Beach-dune system; 3) Rio Potengi (Potengi River)
estuarine system. Those environments occupation patterns reflect the real estate expansion dynamic
that is one of vectors of increasing pressure on these three natural systems. This paper aims to
identify areas of potential vulnerability to local sea level rising (3.14 and 3.57 quotas) from DEM
(Digital Elevation Model) simulations of elevations with one meter resolution overlapped to aerial
photographs PRODETUR 2008, using ArcGIS (ESRI) software. As simulations results, both lifting
quotas have probable potential to reach major urbanized areas, economically active areas, the entire
mangrove ecosystems and shores, destabilize traditional communities and initiate erosion processes
on the beaches and cliffs. Considering the areas potentially vulnerable to the increasing of sea level
in Natal, the adaptation of these communities depends on effective instruments and actions such as:
1) A review of municipal master plan adopting restrictive measures to occupations on vulnerable
areas; 2) Regulate Environmental Protection Zones (ZPA); 3) Real estate speculation control in these
vulnerable areas; 4) To strengthen the civil defense agencies; 5) To strengthen the Sub
Administration Office of Coastal Management and the "Plano Estadual de Gerenciamento Costeiro"
(State Plan of Coastal Management); 6) Food security policies to traditional mangrove communities;
7) Preventive engineering works. Therefore, this simulation of areas potentially vulnerable allows
administrators, planners and other social actors to discuss the future of the city of Natal.

12-16 May 2014
WILDLIFE WITHOUT BORDERS PROGRAM
Alejandra Domínguez-Álvarez (1); Erwin Martí-Flores (1); Margarita Caso-Chávez (1) *; Karina
Santos-del-Prado-Gasca (1)
National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, México, D.F., Mexico (1)
contact: karina.santos@inecc.gob.mx
Abstract
Created in 1995 by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the Secretary of Environment and Natural
Resources of Mexico, the Wildlife without Borders – Mexico program (WWB – Mexico) represents
a cooperative effort to preserve the biodiversity and the integrity of the natural wealth shared by
these two nations. WWB-Mexico builds human and institutional capacity for biodiversity
conservation and management through training. The program provides small grants by partnering
with key stakeholders from government agencies, private sector, universities, schools, NGOs,
indigenous and peasant farmers organizations.The program goal and objectives are addressed
through three signature initiatives;(1) Managing for Excellence: Training in natural resource
conservation and management for Mexican Government personnel, policy-makers, federal, state, and
municipal-level resource managers, and reserve guards.(2) Stewards of the Land: Training in natural
resource conservation/management for resource owners and/or direct users, including local
communities, rural peasant farmer organizations, and indigenous peoples.(3) Voices for Nature:
Training in environmental education and/or public outreach for targeted society stakeholder groups,
including teachers, school children, journalists, tourists, legislators, non-governmental organizations,
and private sector organizations or businesses.Important and valuable lessons have been learned in
the last 18 years during the implementation of more than 310 projects, especially the relation
between training oriented to build capacities related with Climatic Change aspects, specifically with
vulnerability issues in the three signature initiatives.Some examples include the implementation of
agroecological techniques, which allow to reduce the vulnerability by extreme hydrometeorologic
events to local crops; capacity building through training farmers and students in rural communities
on climate change and biodiversity; training landowners (ejidatarios) with tools and knowledge that
enable them to access funds like REDD + and thereby promote primary vegetation
conservation.Some others training projects include promoting awareness on climate change effects
linked to other biodiversity threats like invasive species.We know that adaptation to climate change
should be designed locally and involve local communities. This project has contributed to the
capacity building of more than 12,000 persons, and its results will enhance ecosystem resilience and
will help communities to adapt to the effects of climate change.

12-16 May 2014
ANALYSIS OF CARBON BALANCE FROM LAND USE/COVER AND CLIMATE

CHANGES SCENARIOS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL.
Bruna Pavani (1) *; Wilson Sousa Junior (1); Carlos Inouye (1); Simone Vieira (2); Allan Iwama (2)
Aeronautics Technology Institute, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil (1)
University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: brunapavani@gmail.com
Abstract
The carbon storage and sequestration are linked to ecosystem function of climate regulation,
essential ecological processes sustaining life support. In this paper is presented a methodology for
quantification of carbon balance generated by land use and land cover (LULC) change between past
(2010) and predictive (2030) scenarios, for the Northern Coast of São Paulo. Therefore, it was
applied the Carbon Storage and Sequestration module of the InVEST 2.4.5 model (The Natural
Capital Project) that aggregates the amount stored in each stock of carbon in landscapes maps of land
use and land cover. The results showed an alarming release of carbon into the atmosphere,
intensifying the negative effects of climate change. It was found distinct values for the release of
carbon in the three scenarios generated. The values pointed in legal framework and status quo
scenarios are similar to the previous period, respectively 273.648 and 294.554 Mg for the reduction
of the carbon storage capacity. However, when the forcings related to new ventures in the region
associated with infrastructure logistics and oil and gas exploration were considered, the pressure on
natural environments was significantly higher and the loss exceeded 4.131.350 Mg. Inserting an
increase in atmospheric temperature, the carbon loss surpassed 7.285.550 Mg for the new ventures
scenario, demonstrating a potential large impact associated with global warming. The model used
and the adaptations for the preprocessing performed to increase the accuracy of the input data had
produced results that may be used for public policies related to climate change adaptation as well as
objectives of conservation of natural environments.

12-16 May 2014
REQUIREMENTS FOR A SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Christin Haida (1,2); Michiko Hama (1) *; Karl-Michael Höferl (3); Rudolf Sailer (1,3); Ulrike
Tappeiner (2,4)
alpS – Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria (1)
Institute for Ecology, Innsbruck University, Innsbruck, Austria (2)
Institute for Geography, Innsbruck University, Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (3)
Institute for Alpine Environment, EURAC.research, Bolzano, Italy (4)
contact: haida@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Mountain ecosystems provide goods and services essential for human well-being, e.g. supply of
drinking water, carbon sequestration, protection against natural hazards or provision of ecosystem
based energy. Climatic changes might alter the capacity of ecosystems to provide ecosystem services
(ES) and require an appropriate management to sustain ES for future generations. However, there is
only little knowledge about which ES are vulnerable to climate changes and how to face these
challenges. Furthermore, many services are interdependent. Implementing adaptation measures
which might be beneficial for one service might have negative impacts on another service and trade-
offs occur. In order to prevent such a mal-adaptation it is important to define a benchmark of ES
supply and demand and to develop ES-change scenarios which outline adaptation and management
needs. In our work in the central Alps we used expert interviews to i) identify key ES for mountain
regions ii) assess potential impacts of climate change on the provision of and demand for ES and iii)
evaluate potential adaptation options. Among the results of the interviews, climate change was
considered to have negative impacts on one of the key ES: supply of fresh water; far reaching
consequences might be likely. However, in this context the experts suggested only few adaptation
possibilities. Beside the fresh water supply, also, both the provision of and demand for ecosystem
based energy was perceived to be sensitive to climate change. According to the experts demand for
energy will increase. To cover this demand with fossil or nuclear fuels, however, was seen as
problematic in the context of greenhouse gas emissions. One adaptation option mentioned was to
expand renewable energies, although this could cause trade-offs with other ES, e.g. aesthetical
values.Such ES-change scenarios are a valuable tool to illustrate adaption needs and to identify
conflicts of future management. Based on these scenarios a detailed management framework can be
developed, by coupling natural and social systems in order to close the gap between research and
planning practice. Only by doing so, a sustainable provision of and demand for ES can be secured.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITIES IN GERMAN PRIVATE

COMPANIES
Hubertus Bardt (1) *; Jennifer Striebeck (1)

Abstract
Based on a survey of 1,040 industry executives, perception, concern and management approaches
regarding climate adaptation of private companies in Germany will be analyzed. Most private
companies focus their climate strategy on mitigation, not on adaptation. Therefore, mitigation
measures are much more common than adaptation approaches. In most cases these are organized by
top-level executives as only a minority of companies has its own unit for climate change
issues.Although most companies are only marginally affected by climate effects today, there are
significant concerns regarding future developments. In 2030, almost every second company expects
to be negatively affected by climate change in Germany or abroad. Today, indirect effects of climate
change, i.e. reactions of regulators and market players, are more important for German companies
than direct climate impacts. However, natural-physical effects will become more important and
harmful in the future. Especially larger companies with a more international focus, are more
conscious about potential climate risks in their value chain caused by vulnerabilities of suppliers or
increasing threats to logistics.Different industries face different climate risks and opportunities. The
mechanical engineering industry expects relatively huge market opportunities and believes in its
capacity to realize these options. Logistics and the chemical industry face a balanced set of chances
and risks, while threats are outweigh opportunities for the automotive industry.Business in Germany
will have to enhance their adaptation capacities in order to meet future challenges. Today, companies
mostly pay attention on internal infrastructure, adequate insurance protection and climate secure
logistics. However, most of them only act when they feel a specific concern, based on past events.
For the larger part of German business decision makers, more knowledge about the prospective
specific changes of climate would be necessary in order to develop adaptation strategies.

12-16 May 2014
HOW ADAPTATION IS STARTING TO OCCUR IN THE FORESTRY SECTOR IN

WALLONIA : THE ROLE OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC ACTORS
Valentine van Gameren (1); Edwin Zaccai (1) *

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium (1)
contact: ezaccai@ulb.ac.be
Abstract
The forestry sector is an area where one can expect to see the actors anticipate to medium and long
run climate change, given the long-term effects of forest regeneration and management decisions. A
second reason for a possible concern for adaptation comes from the dependance to a local
environment, unlike sectors of wood transformation that can switch between supply sources. We
studied the case of private forest owners in Wallonia (Belgium) where forests cover 33% of the
territory. This study involves 32 in-depth interviews of forest owners, supplemented by 46 extensive
interviews with public and private institutional actors who are in a position of influencing the sector.
The results that we will present include an understanding of motivation of forest owners to act which
downplays the criteria of a narrow economic assessment. Factors such as the (emotional and legacy)
attachment to properties, the personal perception of risk from climate change, or of the capacity to
adapt, all play important roles. We also document the fact that much of the adaptation implemented
measures are "no regrets", i.e. motivated by objectives other than climate change, especially - but not
only – to cope against climate variability. Moreover, extreme events (especially storms) play a key
role in the forest owners’ discourses. Looking at the interaction between public and private action,
we show that adaptation is primarily designed in Wallonia as a linear trajectory (incremental
adaptation), without considering discontinuous changes (transformational adaptation), contrarily to
some scientific scenarios (notably 4°C) that suggest that this should be the case in the study area. We
also underline the importance of indirect measures that may influence the adaptive capacity of
private owners (rules on property size or on the conditions of inheritance, for instance). Other results
include the process by wich the government is framing the policy of adaptation in this sector and the
forms of communication with forest owners through various channels, public and private. In
conclusion, we reflect on the factors likely to generate in a near future greater involvement of
stakeholders as well as experimenting with various ways of adaptation options.

12-16 May 2014
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE

RIO DE LA PLATA: PREVENTION AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS (RIBERAS
PROJECT): ADVANCING ON LOCAL URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDAS
THROUGH MULTI – STAKEHOLDER COLLABORATION.
Florencia Almansi (1) *; Jorgelina Hardoy (1)

Instituto Internacional de Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo, IIED - América Latina, Florida, Vicente López, Buenos Aires, Argentina (1)
contact: jhardoy@iied-al.org.ar
Abstract
The Riberas project is a 3 year project that aims to: 1.analyze the impact of climate change and
variability on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Carmelo and Juan Lacaze (in Uruguay), Tigre and
San Fernando (in Argentina); 2. Draft local climate change adaptation guidelines through a multi-
stakeholder process. It is funded by IDRC.The hypothesis that guides this research project is that a
better understanding of local socio-environmental, economic and institutional conditions builds
social capital, and together with improved collaborative work increases resilience and favors the
implementation of CC adaptation plans.The project moves on the inter-phase between the generation
and use of scientific information on local hydro-climatic dynamics and the identification of local
adaptation measures (planned or spontaneous) developed within a changing context (urban
development trends, institutional and socio-economic changes). It is generating a local information
base (hydro-meteorological, socio-institutional, economic, and urban) which is validated with
different participating stakeholders. The project also looks into the socio-institutional framework
operating in the four selected municipalities as we analyze existing capacity to support effective
climate change adaptation and what else is needed. Based on mid term findings, we use key activities
prioritised my community members (such as developing people centred early warnings systems,
participatory videos, participatory local territorial planning) as entry points to engage them and local
governments in drafting local adaptation guidelines through a multi-stakeholder process. Hydro-
meteorological, urban development paths and the analysis of damage helps guide local decision
making.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGES AND VULNERABILITY OF URBAN ECOSYSTEMS IN HIGH

MOUNTAINS: AN ILLUSTRATION OF URBAN POOR'S COPING MECHANISM IN
HIMALAYA
Prakash Chandra Tiwari (1) *; Bhagwati Joshi (2)

contact: pctiwari@yahoo.com
Abstract
During recent years, urbanization has emerged as one of the important drivers of environmental
changes in Himalaya where urban-growth has been rapid and unplanned. Himalaya being
economically underdeveloped and densely populated is highly susceptible to emerging risks of urban
land-use intensification. Moreover, climate change has stressed urban ecosystems through higher
mean temperatures, altered precipitation pattern and extreme weather events. These changes
increased vulnerability of urban-areas to multiple natural and socio-economic risks, affecting mainly
poor inhibiting environmentally insecure areas. However, urban-poor have improved their response
mechanism to such risks through diversification of livelihood. These adaptation practices may help
in evolving more effective urban pro-poor climate change adaptation policies in mountains. Study
aimed at analyzing potential of community-induced livelihood options in reducing vulnerability of
urban poor to emerging risks of rainfall-variability with case illustrations of Kumaon
Himalaya.Methodology included monitoring of rainfall patterns and its associated risks through
long-term meteorological observations; analysis of livelihood status of urban-poor through socio-
economic surveys, and interpretation of linkages between livelihood and community resilience to
risks. Study indicated number of rainy days and rainfall decreased (15% and 25%); frequency and
duration of high-intensity rainfall enhanced (11% and 14%), and water availability reduced (38%).
Areas characterized with low carrying capacity and inhabited by socio-economically marginalized
groups have been found highly susceptible to such risks. Nearly 35% poor families dependent only
on outdoor construction work affected worst by landslides, flash-floods and water-crisis; 41%
families improved their coping-strategy to water-crisis by engaging themselves in home tailoring
plus construction labour; whereas, 24% families who invented multiple livelihood options including
construction, tailoring, knitting and candle-making, not only reduced vulnerability to all these risks
but also decreased their poverty. Hence, institutionalization of community evolved livelihood
options can go long way in reducing vulnerability of mountain urban-ecosystems to climate change
in developing countries.

12-16 May 2014
MODELLING THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND ADAPTATION

STRATEGIES IN THE NORTH COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL
Carlos Eduardo Nakao (1); Wilson Cabral de Souza Júnior (1); Débora M. de Freitas (1) *
Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (1)
Abstract
Concern about climate change and its impacts is one of the most recurrent themes in coastal
management. The irregular shape of the north portion of São Paulo coast with pocket beaches and
mountain range in conjunction with a growing urbanization process makes the coast susceptible to
extreme climate change variability. This paper elaborates strategies of climate change adaptation for
land use planning and coastal management in the North Coast of São Paulo. We generated scenarios
(status-quo SQ and law enforcement-LE) of land urban use and occupation from modelling of spatial
dynamics. Maps for 1990, 1999, 2010 and 2030 projection were produced using the DINAMICA
EGO software. These scenarios are compared between them and with vulnerability maps to identify
areas at risk. Results indicate a high rate of urbanization process between 1990 and 1999 with
25,83% change of vegetation use to urban areas. Similar change pattern was observed for the period
between 1999 to 2010, however in this scenario urban expansion occurred in a more moderate way.
This reduction in the pace of urban expansion could be explained, in part, by the Ecological-
Economical Zoning (EEZ) legislation that occurred in 2004. The enforcement of the EEZ law may
have slowed urban expansion and inhibited deforestation by establishing limits led occupation zones
(Z4OD), for example. It should be noted that the extent of the risk of people with the impacts of
climate change is influenced by urban infrastructure, and especially by the decision makers. To better
adapt, land use occupation and coastal management strategies must be aligned with policy plans.
Findings of this work can guide future planning decisions such as the revision of the EEZ and local
municipal zoning plans.

12-16 May 2014
A NEW METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE

ON FLOOD RISK IN TOKYO
Junpei Hirano (1) *; Koji Dairaku (1)

NIED, Tsukuba, Japan (1)
contact: jhirano@bosai.go.jp
Abstract
In this study, we attempted to develop a new methodology for flood risk assessment in the Tokyo
metropolitan area by considering the effect of precipitation change. By comparing the statistical
distribution of the daily precipitation frequency for the whole study period, and those for flood
occurrence days, we found that the distributions of the precipitation frequency for the flood
occurrence days are corresponding to those for the whole study period. These results indicate that we
can estimate flood damage based on frequency of daily precipitation. Based on these results, we
estimated the flood damage for Tokyo based on distribution of daily precipitation frequency. We
then created a flood-risk curve that represented the relationship between damage and exceeding
probability of a flood. By comparing the newly developed flood-risk curve, based on the
precipitation frequency, with those in the previous studies, we indicated that a newly developed
flood-risk curve could evaluate the potential flood risk in Tokyo with high accuracy.

12-16 May 2014
WATER AND CARBON FOOTPRINTS AS TOOLS FOR URBAN CLIMATE-SENSITIVE

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Miguel Rodríguez Tejerina (1) *

Servicios Ambientales S.A., La Paz, Bolivia (1)
contact: miguel@sasa-bolivia.com
Abstract
Most of the growth in urbanization in the next few decades will occur in developing countries, where
there remain huge opportunities for better urban planning and service delivery. In particular, Latin
America and the Caribbean is the world's region with the fastest rate or urbanization, with more than
80% of its population currently living in cities vs. 40% in 1950, and is expected to reach more than
90% in 2050. This situation poses significant challenges in terms of urban planning, even more so
considering the impacts of climate change.In response to these challenges, the Cities Footprint
project, financed by international cooperation, aims to: i) assess the Water and Carbon Footprints of
3 Latin American cities (La Paz - Bolivia, Quito - Ecuador and Lima - Peru) and of the
correspondent municipal governments, based on internationally-recognized methodologies, ii)
elaborate a list of Footprint reduction measures in collaboration with the local governments and key
stakeholders, and iii) prepare a City Action Plan that states the Water and Carbon Footprints
reduction goals for the short, mid and long-term, along with the required actions to achieve these
goals, financial indicators including investment requirements, technology suppliers, possible
financing sources, etc.At this stage the project has finished the footprints assessment process, and is
initiating the process of preparing the City Action Plans. By the time the Adaptation Futures 2014 is
underway, the content of these plans will be shared with the audience. The Carbon Footprint
reduction measures aim to reinforce the climate change mitigation commitments of cities, while
measures related to the Water Footprint are oriented to become part of the adaptation plans of these
particularly vulnerable Andean cities. The final expected impact of the project is to help cities orient
their development in the path of a climate-sensitive or climate-compatible growth model.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE FROM AN URBAN-ORIENTED PERSPECTIVE: COMPARING THE

IMPACTS OF CAR EMISSION-RELATED AIR QUALITY POLICIES IN SÃO PAULO,
PARIS AND NEW YORK
Anne Dorothée Slovic (1) *; Helena Ribeiro (1)

1School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil (1)
contact: adslovic@usp.br
Abstract
Scientific research has demonstrated that climate change is today one of the major environmental
challenges and is encouraging the development of potential solutions that could help in reducing its
impacts. In urban centers atmospheric pollution is today one of the major environmental health
issues facing urban population. In urban areas, one of the primary sources of atmospheric pollution is
car emissions; emphasizing the need for local government to implement public policies that aim to
cope with its effects. To do so, this project seeks to study the relationship between air pollution and
its derived effect on the urban environment and global health. It focuses on vehicle emissions as a
primary source of atmospheric urban pollution and looks into the different levels of pollutants
derived from it including nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter. The project will compare the
policies that aim to reduce atmospheric pollution in the metropolitan areas of São Paulo, Paris, and
New York such as related to A) vehicle circulation restriction B) public and alternative transportation
and C) fuel and fleet standards. The project provides an overview of these three cities and the
development of tools that will allow comparison of the impact of these policies on the indices of
health and environment in each region. It presents data collected from air pollution in the last ten
years for nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter as well as secondary health data for the three cities,
when available. Special attention will be given to the urban center of São Paulo due to its high level
of vehicular emissions, emerging economy and public transport system considered under developed.
Preliminary results have identified that New York and Paris, despite extensive public transportation,
present challenges similar to São Paulo with respect to air pollution from vehicle emissions and
urban mobility. A panorama of the specific topics mentioned above will highlight the similarities and
challenges of the air pollution policies for the three cities. Priority will be given to then measure the
impacts for policies related to vehicle circulation restriction. The long-term goal is to identify air
pollution control policies for the city of São Paulo, Paris and New York that have most contributed to
urban health and its environment.

12-16 May 2014
AGROCLIMATE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: FROM WEB-BASED SOLUTIONS TO

MOBILE APPS
Clyde Fraisse (1) *; Jose Andreis (1); Willingthon Pavan (2)

University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (1)
Universidade de Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (2)
contact: cfraisse@ufl.edu
Abstract
The AgroClimate (http://www.agroclimate.org) web-based information and decision support system
was developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with
climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools
that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes seasonal
climate monitoring and forecast combined with risk management tools for a range of crops, forestry,
pasture, and livestock. The system was developed to allow easy expansion of topic areas, number of
commodities, and risk management tools available for users at different locations in the Southeast.
AgroClimate is currently being replicated and adapted by growers’ cooperatives in Paraguay and
Brazil. More recently we realized that the expansion of mobile phones to agricultural areas is causing
a revolution in the way information is provided to farmers around the world including in developing
countries where Information and communications technologies (ICTs) have spread rapidly in the
recent years. As a result we started developing AgroClimate applications for smartphone devices that
target decisions made at the field and as so require simple and updated information. Our goal is to
integrate web-based tools that target strategic decisions with mobile phone apps that are applicable to
mostly weather-driven tactical decisions. Our experience shows that producers are more likely to
engage in strategies to reduce seasonal and long-term climate change risks when are also offered
solutions based on weather monitoring and short-term weather forecast that offer simple information
such as growing degree days and chill hours accumulation and advice on tasks such as irrigation
scheduling and pesticide application.

12-16 May 2014
CAN MODEL-BASED CLIMATE PROJECTIONS PROVIDE USEFUL INFORMATION

FOR DECISION MAKERS?
Nicola Golding (1) *

UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK (1)
contact: nicola.golding@metoffice.gov.uk
Abstract
The approach of providing model-based projections to answer society's questions about climate
change has long been accepted: those providing the information have assumed it is useful to decision
makers and those same decision makers have assumed that what is currently available is the best on
offer.Through interviews we evaluate examples of where tailored climate information has been
provided to users from different sectors, and assess the degree to which the above assumptions have
been correct. We identify examples where we can isolate particular reasons information has or has
not been useful and consider how these examples can be used to inform future production of climate
information for decision making.

12-16 May 2014
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE AND

PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL.
Pablo Borges (1,2) *; Klemens Barfus (1); Holger Weiss (2); Christian Bernhofer (1)
Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany (1)
Umweltforschungszentrum - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany (2)
contact: pablo.borges@ufz.de
Abstract
Due to rapid and unplanned urbanization and changes in land use, the capital of Brazil is already
experiencing increasing pressure on its water resources and potential variability of the future regional
climate may enhance these impacts. Facing the urgency of taking measures to guarantee the water
supply to Brazil´s Capital, the project called IWAS/ÁguaDF aims, through research, to provide
substantial information for the development of an Integrated Water Resources Management concept.
To achieve this purpose, the project is organized in multiple working groups wherein climate
projections comprise essential information to impact assessment. In the last years, it became a
challenge for the climate scientific community to provide information to assist the development of
adaptations strategies.The Global Circulation Models - GCMs are the most preferred tools for
simulating the response of the climate system to global change, such as increasing greenhouse gases
concentrations in the atmosphere. However, the climate information required for regional and local
impact studies, such as water resources management, is of a spatial scale much finer than that
provided by GCMs and, therefore, regional climate models are often necessary. As a consequence,
several downscaling techniques have emerged as a means of relating large scale atmospheric
variables to local scale surface weather. Statistical downscaling produces local time series by using
empirical linear relationships as transfer function between large-scale predictor(s) and local-scale
predictand(s) variables. The tool used is described as a hybrid of regression-based and stochastic
weather generator; and it is widely used in climate change risk or uncertainty assessments. Large-
scale predictors are provide by CMIP5 simulations, while predictands by observations. The choice of
the GCM, and its respective initial conditions, is according to its capacity to simulate past conditions.
In order to take the climate model uncertainties into account, the 5th and 95th percentile of the multi-
model ensemble are also considered in the downscaling process. In general, results demonstrate the
high level of correlation and satisfactory mean square error between observed and downscaled data.
Less accurate than temperature, precipitation is hard to be reproduced. On the other hand, the
occurrence and annual distribution of accumulated precipitation is fairly well simulated. Regarding
to future scenarios, monthly projections of mean temperature show substantial increase until 2050,
particularly in September and October, known as the hottest months. Increase in precipitation is more
evident in January and February, while May, July and September point out to a decrease in
precipitation.

12-16 May 2014
PACIFIC CLIMATE FUTURES: TAILORED CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR IMPACT

ASSESSMENT AND IN-COUNTRY CAPACITY BUILDING
John Clarke (1) *; Timothy Erwin (1)

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia (1)
contact: john.clarke@csiro.au
Abstract
The developing island nations of the Pacific are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of a changing
climate. The Pacific Climate Futures web-tool provides climate projections for 14 Pacific countries
and East Timor. It includes projections from global climate modelling experiments (CMIP3 and
CMIP5) as well as regional climate model results. Importantly, the tool is underpinned by the most
extensive climate model evaluation exercise ever undertaken in the Pacific. To maximise
accessibility of the information to a wide range of users, there are three access levels: Basic which
provides summary information; Intermediate which provides self-guided generation of projections to
suit a range of impact assessments; and Advanced which provides full functionality with a large
range of display and data export options. Users can explore projections of up to 11 climate variables
for their region of interest, along with various future years and emission scenarios.Uniquely,
projections are classified by the combined changes in two variables, with the data presented in an
easy to understand colour-coded matrix. For example, if the user selects temperature and rainfall as
the two variables of interest, the tool displays the number of climate models giving projections in
categories such as "warmer and wetter" or "hotter and drier", or "much hotter and much drier". The
resultant groupings (called "Climate Futures") provide a clear visual display of the spread and
clustering of model projections which makes it easy for users to identify subsets of the projections
that are of most importance to their impact assessment. Climate Futures also provides information on
model consensus for each Climate Future which contributes to understanding of the likelihood of
particular impacts.More than 750 Pacific island scientists and planners from government, industry
and NGOs have been trained (in-country) in the underpinning science and use of Pacific Climate
Futures. Of these, more than 350 have been trained to Advanced level in two three-day sessions,
approximately 12 months apart. National government planners have used the tool to inform policies
and plans. In addition, requests for climate projections data for these countries are now handled by
local scientists, often with no assistance from us. We will present some examples of where and how
the tool has been used.

12-16 May 2014
FROM DATA TO KNOWLEDGE: DECIPHERING CLIMATE INFORMATION &

DEVELOPING CLIMATE FUTURES FOR VIETNAM
Jack Katzfey (1); Hoang Anh Cat (1) *; Tim Erwin (1); John Clarke (1)
CSIRO, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (1)
contact: hoanganh.cat@csiro.au
Abstract
With most of its 3,000 km of coastline at or below sea level, most fertile agriculture land locked in
two major deltas to the north and south of the country (Red River and the Mekong deltas) and over
50 percent of its population residing in these areas, Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries
to the impact of climate change. Here, impacts of climate changes such as sea-level rises and
flooding are already occurring. The Government of Vietnam is deeply concerned about these
impacts, committing considerable effort to better understand these changes. To this end, the
Government has invested in many regional climate modeling projects, giving rise to an array of
complex and varied information about future climate in Vietnam.A key challenge to decision-makers
and climate scientists alike is how to decipher all these data on potential climate changes in Vietnam,
to develop well-informed and evidence-based knowledge for decision-making. This needs to occur in
an environment where there are emerging differences in the projections from global and regional
climate models, with a desire by the impact assessment community to limit the number of climate
projections under consideration. While it may be attractive to simply select an average amongst the
various projections, this will hide larger and smaller projection values which may be important for
certain planning decisions (such as rainfall extremes in planning for dam design and temperature
extremes in planning for road design).A framework to simplify the selection of application-focused
"Climate Futures" for impact assessment and planning will be presented. The Climate Futures Tool
guides users through the selection of relevant projections classified by the combined changes in two
variables. These groupings reduce the broad numbers of projections into smaller clusters called
"Climate Futures". This allows users to then select certain Climate Futures that are most relevant to
their application. Users are recommended to consider, at least, the best case, worst case and
maximum consensus Climate Futures for their particular application. This presentation will discuss
Vietnam's experience with this tool - why it was needed, new experiences in using this tool to
explore both global and regional projections, and how this tool is being applied.

12-16 May 2014
A GUIDE FOR DECISION-MAKERS: COMMUNICATING CLIMATE INFORMATION

THROUGH AN UNDERSTANDING OF USER NEEDS.
Isabelle Charron (1) *; Diane Chaumont (1)

Ouranos, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (1)
contact: charron.isabelle@ouranos.ca
Abstract
Planning and adapting to a changing climate requires credible information about the magnitude and
rate of projected changes. Climate science has arguably reached a level of maturity that makes it
more decision-oriented. At the same time however, potential impacts of climate change raise a
number of vulnerabilities and opportunities that decision-makers are asked to deal with.
Consequently, making decisions in the face of climate change remains far from straightforward.
Simply identifying the relevant climate information can be a challenge for a decision-maker, and that
is but one of the many steps required to developing an adaptation strategy.Ouranos, a consortium on
regional climatology and adaptation to climate change was launched twelve years ago in the
Province of Québec, Canada, with the objective of developing and providing climate information in
support of adaption. This organization differs from most other climate service centers by integrating
climate modeling activities, climate analysis services, and impacts and adaptation expertise under
one roof. Rich from its experience, Ouranos has developed a guide to help decision-makers better
understand the types of climate information that are available to them and help them better identify
how this information can be used at different stages of the adaptation process. Climate service
providers also benefit from this guide by learning how to better evaluate and respond to different
user needs.The guide is organized around three main objectives. The first is to categorize the climate
information needs of users based on the decisions they need to make. Users are categorized, through
a series of questions, into one of three climate information categories. The categories differ in the
complexity of the information presented, both in terms of its content and in terms of its format of
presentation. The second objective is to provide a catalogue of climate information products. The
purpose of this section is to familiarize users with a large number of formats used to present climate
information. Indeed, the same information can be tailored using different formats to suit different
users, based on their expertise and on their use of the information. Finally, the guide provides case
studies that highlight how climate information can be used to guide decisions regarding climate
change adaptation. This new tool serves to increase the capacity of decision-makers in the face of
climate change adaptation and to facilitate the collaboration with climate service providers.

12-16 May 2014
COMMUNICATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN ICA-RUS (INTEGRATED CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT - RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND SOCIETY) PROJECT
Kiyoshi Takahashi (1) *; Kensuke Fukushi (2); Yoshie Maeda (3); Kenta Iwase (4); Masashi Sato
(4); Tokuta Yokohata (1); Seita Emori (1)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (1)
The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan (2)
Japan Weather Association, Tokyo, Japan (3)
Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan (4)
contact: ktakaha@nies.go.jp
Abstract
With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we are conducting a five-
year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and
Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive
assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best
available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the
problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and
adapts to future changes in circumstances.The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five
themes:1)Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies,2)Optimization of land, water and
ecosystem uses for climate risk management,3)Identification and analysis of critical climate
risks,4)Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic
uncertainties and5)Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk
management(see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/).For the integration of quantitative
knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy],
which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection
modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly
project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based
on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses,
we also maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised
iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government
officials and industrial representatives.At the conference, we will explain the above-mentioned
efforts for enhancing risk communication with stakeholders.

12-16 May 2014
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE EXTREME ON ECOSYSTEMS AND HUMAN HEALTH IN

BRAZIL: PULSE-BRAZIL
Lincoln Alves (1) *; Jose Marengo (1); Peter Cox (3); Luiz Aragão (2); Gilvan Sampaio (1); Duarte
Costa (3); Iracema Cavalcanti (1); Wagner Soares (1); Richard Betts (3)
CCST/INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
OBT/INPE, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil (2)
contact: lincoln.muniz@gmail.com
Abstract
PULSE is an international research exchange initiative between the UK and Brazil which aims at the
development of a climate impact tool, designed for supporting decision-makers on climate adaptation
policies in Brazil. PULSE is Platform for Understanding Long-term Sustainability of Ecosystems for
analyzing, visualizing and understanding the interactions between climate, ecosystems and human
health in Amazonia. PULSE-Brazil will enable stakeholders to explore the consequences of different
policy options for adaptation and mitigation of environmental change in the Brazilian Amazon.
Specifically, one of the objectives of PULSE-BRAZIL is to: Develop a user-friendly GIS-based tool
capable of integrating information of recent extremes and their impacts on ecosystems and human
health with relevant physical climate variables and metrics from future climate projections,
supporting. The increased capacity for identifying areas of high risk of climate variability and change
as well as the improved potential for mapping vulnerability, may help considerably to enhance our
understanding of the spatial patterns of future environmental changes and its effects on health and
ecosystems. Therefore, we expect that the PULSE platform can assist in the planning of government
actions directed towards the increase of resiliency of Amazonian communities to climate change.
Finally, PULSE-Brazil would have a lasting positive impact by greatly facilitate links between
scientists in the UK and Brazil on global environmental change, by building capacity for the next
generation of scientists and decision makers, and through the development of techniques to
communicate scientific outcomes to stakeholders and the general public, using GIS-based systems.

12-16 May 2014
FRAMING CLIMATE INFORMATION THROUGH CRITERIA FOR RESPONSIBLE

APPLICATION
Bruce Hewitson (1) *; William Gutowski (3); Clare Goodess (2); Christopher Jack (1)
University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa (1)
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (2)
Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA (3)
contact: hewitson@csag.uct.ac.za
Abstract
An emergent property of the growth in adaptation actions is the complex mix of activities around
climate services; the development, analysis, and delivery of climate information. Without care, these
activities are introducing significant additional risk factors for the decision maker. There is an
increasing portal proliferation, an expansion of institutional climate services under the umbrella of
national and global initiatives, growing commercial services, and a deluge of data. End-users of
climate information are poorly equipped to interpret this data, to know limits of climate information
in terms of scales in time and space, to tailor the products for specific impact sector needs, or to
handle contradictions between different data sources. For their part the purveyors of climate services
arguable use data as if it were information, with a notable measure of overselling of products in a
competitive information market place, and with limited guidance for the end-users. In this situation
there are no accepted standards, metrics, authorities, or accountability, and the door stands wide open
to potential mal-adaptation.We explore the ramifications of this situation through drawing on
multiple data sources in an example application for impacts and decision making, and examine the
consequences that can emerge from the problematic and contradictory market place of data. This
leads to a key need for a way to build in robustness to the process of information delivery. As there
are no global authorities to enforce standards, the most practical step is to develop criteria against
which to evaluate and incorporate climate information into the multi-stressor user-space of real
world adaptation and policy. We thus conclude with some suggestions of what appropriate criteria
might be in the context of climate services information delivery, and show how such criteria would
realign the outcomes of our case example.

12-16 May 2014
THE STORY OF A BOUNDARY ORGANISATION IN ADAPTATION: REFLECTIONS ON

THE FIRST PHASE OF NCCARF
Jean Palutikof (1) *; David Rissik (1); Sarah Boulter (1)

Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia (1)
contact: j.palutikof@griffith.edu.au
Abstract
Effective adaptation requires underpinning research to ensure decisions are taken in the light of the
best possible information. This raises two interlinked questions:· Is the capacity available to in
the research community to generate knowledge, and in the end user community to utilise it?· Are
the channels of communication open and operating between the two communities? The National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) was set up in 2008 by the Australian
government to address these two questions, and completed its first phase of operation in 2013. It
will recommence operation in 2014. This is therefore a good point at which to evaluate its
effectiveness in meeting its mission. Major achievements include:· Nine thematic research plans
setting out critical end-user knowledge needs for effective adaptation;· A portfolio of 100
completed research projects on every aspect of adaptation;· Eight Networks bringing together
over 5000 practitioners and researchers in adaptation to build capacity;· Biennial conferences
which are established as the major gathering point for people working in adaptation research and
practice;· Twelve Policy Guidance Briefs addressing critical topics in adaptation for Australia,
based on practitioner workshops;· An annual program of adaptation champions highlighting the
achievements of people working to adapt to climate change. Major challenges during the five years
of operation for a boundary organisation such as NCCARF include:· Building relationships of
trust with end users, and maintaining links to institutions when the ‘revolving door’ takes those end
users to other jobs;· Ensuring that research projects truly address end user needs – project
investigators generally have their own research interests which may not align well with those needs;·
Ensuring the quality and utility of research in a context where there are pressures to deliver quickly
and to an end user-set agenda which may be poorly informed and poorly articulated. This
presentation will explore the successes and failures of NCCARF, and look forward to the likely
challenges for the second phase.

12-16 May 2014
FLOODING IN SOUTHWESTERN AMAZON: RAINFALL IN THE RIVER ACRE

CATCHMENT AREA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH FLOODING IN THE CITY OF
RIO BRANCO
Paula Ferreira (1); Duarte Costa (2) *; Wagner Soares (3); Vera Reis (4)
National Institute of Amazonian Research, Manaus/AM, Brazil (1)
National Institute of Spatial Research, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (3)
Government of Acre State Secretary of the Environment, Rio Branco/AC, Brazil (4)
contact: d.costa@exeter.ac.uk
Abstract
In the last eight years, Southwestern Amazon has experienced an unusual record of climate-
hydrological extreme events. Flooding in the city of Rio Branco - Acre - is a common phenomenon
during the wet season however, such events have recently had an increased strength with significant
impact on the livelihoods of local communities. This work was part of the PULSE-Brazil project,
which is designing a decision-support tool to better understand the impacts of climate change on
ecosystems and human health. An integrated team of Acre technicians and researchers worked
together to analyse the effects of extreme rainfall on river levels in Rio Branco. A spatial correlation
between rainfall within the Acre river basin and river levels in Rio Branco was calculated, indicating
significant differences across the basin. TRMM satellite measurements of rainfall were correlated
with river levels station observations in Rio Branco and areas in the basin with higher contribution to
flooding were highlighted. A rainfall delay was also estimated up to 7 days, which not only
strengthened the correlation but also disclosed some new point of priority intervention. To estimate
the future scenario for flooding under climate change, the same method was applied using the
Brazilian regional model Hadcm3-Eta (RCP4.5) which has the same resolution (25km x 25km) as
the TRMM rainfall datasets. The results highlight a specific sub-basin and a particular course of the
river with higher contribution for flooding in Rio Branco. This information is a step in the right
direction to support municipal and state plans to prevent extreme flooding in Rio Branco, through
analysing various adaptation solutions on the face of such predictions. More intensified hydrological
modelling work would be necessary to improve the understanding of river variability and the
potential of that region for implementing such visualizations tools.

12-16 May 2014
PULSE-BRAZIL: A WEB PLATFORM FOR UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE IMPACTS ON

ECOSYTEMS AND HUMAN HEALTH IN BRAZIL
Neil Kaye (1); Duarte Costa (2) *; Richard Betts (1,2)

Met Office, Exeter, UK (1)
contact: d.costa@exeter.ac.uk
Abstract
Climate change over the coming decades has the potential to have far reaching impacts across Brazil.
These impacts will occur across various sectors, namely on ecosystems and human health. It is likely
that the risk of fire increases in the Amazon region due to fragmentation and degradation of forest
ecosystems aggravated by higher maximum temperatures and more extreme temperatures associated
with global climate change. Certain diseases such as malaria, may spread due to a change in their
climate space. Rivers may become more prone to flooding and drought conditions due to a more
variable climate. Currently it is difficult to synthesize all this disparate information so that the
consequences for different sectors can be understood and the right and timely decisions be made. To
help solve this problem we have developed PULSE (Platform for Understanding Long-term
Sustainability of Ecosystems and health).PULSE is a Web based tool that graphs and maps both
observational and projected climate information across South America, including Brazilian
observations of fire and deforestation data. The design and development of this web platform has
been done in a participatory approach with state decision-makers and the pilot Amazonian state of
Acre. The tool has detailed health data for municipalities over Acre and also daily river gauge station
data for a number of river stations across the main rivers of the stat. The result of this work is a
flexible, smart looking web application which effectively visualises many different modelling and
observed, helping the construction of an understanding of historical impacts of climate on
ecosystems and possible future risks, under a global climate change scenario. Future versions will
look at the potential for adding analytical capabilities to this application.

12-16 May 2014
INSTITUTIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE: KNOWLEDGE SHARING

FOR ADAPTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE MAIPO BASIN, CHILE.
Sebastián Bonelli (1) *; Christopher Scott (2); Sebastián Vicuña (1)

Center For Global Change, Universidad Catolica de Chile., Santiago, Chile (1)
Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona., Tucson, USA (2)
contact: sjbonell@uc.cl
Abstract
Bridging the gaps between climate change research, decision-making, and policy presents an
ongoing challenge for the adaptation community. Co-production of knowledge based on researcher-
stakeholder dialogue has been identified as a complex process, where scientific results do not always
fit with stakeholders' needs and expectations. Such complexities are usually related to inherent
uncertainties in climate and hydrological models and in water demand scenarios, making difficult
their translation to policy interventions. This paper addresses the need to better integrate research
with institutional frameworks for decision-making. In particular, it provides an overview of the
MAPA (Maipo river basin Adaptation Plan for its initials in Spanish) project which has specifically
dealt with this co-production need via the implementation of a Scenario Building Team (GCE for its
initials in Spanish) with water related users and management organizations. Building on previously
identified water resources related vulnerabilities, this process has generated data and empirical
evidence for an institutional assessment of adaptation to the impacts of climate variability and
change in the Maipo river basin. The Maipo basin contains 40% of Chile's total population and is
located in the semiarid central region of the country where the main climate change impacts are
associated with a reduction in total volume and changes in seasonality of river runoff, which is
currently the main water source for human settlements and economic activities. The GCE consists of
26 organizations from civil society, public and private sectors, each having representation in the
project. Knowledge sharing has been supported via ongoing meetings, while progress of the project
is extended to GCE organizations through a regular newsletter. The initial results of this
collaboration have been the co-construction of the main drivers that affect the future development of
the main components of the territory: urban, agriculture and natural (mostly unperturbed) regions.
Identifying and prioritizing these drivers are critical for the development of future adaptation
scenarios. Because this basin-level co-production initiative is at the vanguard in the Andean region,
the institutional analysis also represents a framework that is extendable to other basins where
stakeholders are seeking to enhance their adaptive capacity.

12-16 May 2014
GAP BETWEEN SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY: CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH IN

CHILE
Roxana Bórquez (1) *; Pablo González (2)

Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile (1)
Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile (2)
contact: roborquez@gmail.com
Abstract
Scientific background is fundamental for decision- and policy- making. However, science and public
policy inter-linkages have not been sufficiently fluid, owing to underlying features of each
community (academic and public) and to their interactions with the socio-economic and cultural
environment. The aim of this study was to identify and to analyze the barriers to and facilitators of
the climate change science-public policy nexus in Chile, as a first attempt to understand and bridge
the gap between science and public policy in the country.Using an exploratory qualitative
methodology, semi-structured interviews were performed with researchers and employees from
public institutions of environmental and academic relevance, thus allowing for a characterization of
the structure and dynamic of incentive within the academic and public sectors, and for an analysis of
their communication and coordination mechanisms.Identified facilitators included: (1) learning to
coordinate among and between public institutions of environmental relevance, and (2) increased
research funding in Chile. The barriers identified were: (1) publication in peer-reviewed journals,
mainly foreign, as the principal assessment of academic standing, (2) the generation of studies of
limited availability on a national level and without consideration of public policy needs, (3) prejudice
between academic and public sectors, (4) asymmetry and failures of information, (5) lack of
translation to accessible language (simplification of content), (6) poor synchronization between
politics and technical time scales, (7) coordination failures and irregular interaction between and
across sectors, and (8) coordination failures between funding institutions and policy making
institutions.Multiple and varied means to bridge the gap between science and policy might be
proposed; one of these involves a strengthening of those strategies, instruments, and tools that
support public policies of a greater public value, and, consequently, augment the value of local
research itself in Chile.

12-16 May 2014
SUPPORTING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN LATIN AMERICA THROUGH

VIRTUAL MECHANISMS - REGATTA PLATFORM
Sonia Perez (1) *; Jason Spensley

UNEP, Panama City, Panama (1)
contact: sonia.perez@unep-rolac.org
Abstract
Knowledge management and communication are key elements in scientific information and
dissemination. We would like to present REGATTA as an example of knowledge sharing and
network management in the region.The Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Action on
Climate Change (REGATTA) is an initiative being implemented by the United Nations Environment
Programme in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. REGATTA´s supports countries in this
region to address climate change through the exchange of knowledge, development of pilot projects
and provision of advisory services in adaptation and mitigation n in the region.. One of the most
innovative and key components of REGATTA is the on-line knowledge-sharing platform, which was
established to act as the impetus to to strengthen the exchange of information and experiences among
countries, institutions and experts. The on-line site is one of the first bilingual (Spanish and English)
climate change platforms available in the region. It houses a climate change reference material
depository that includes project reports on adaptation mitigation and technology development in the
region and documents and manuals on climate change vulnerability analysis tools and methods, case
studies, best practices and lessons learned, financing opportunities and policy briefs. A interactive
map displaces the key institutions in the region working on climate change adaptation and
mitigations.Among several of REGATTA activities are the implementation of pilot projects and
vulnerability, impact and adaptation analysis. To facilitate the dissemination of the projects results
six virtual communities of practice (COPs) have been established; three related to mitigation and the
other three are focused on adaptation (in the sub-regions of the Andes, Mesoamerica and Southern
Cone and Gran Chaco). The COPs communicate information that is specific to their topic or region,
disseminate the projects´ results and organize active discussion forums that stimulate the exchange of
experiences in a two- way communication.COPs are managed by key climate change institutions in
the region and supervised by REGATTA team. Those institutions are the ones who identify
demands, share, analyze and manage information and share results with the rest of the community.
They also promote getting results, through dialogue and discussions, create new ideas and work
strategies. Working with a big range of experts from different areas, institutions, countries and
sectors help to enrich results.At the same time, REGATTA aims at engage those institutions by
facilitating in-present workshops and exchange of activities.

12-16 May 2014
SCIENTIFIC MODELS AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE: SWISS PERUVIAN EXPERIENCES
Luis Vicuna (1) *; Christine Jurt (1); Christian Huggel (1); Fiorella Minan (2); Maria Dulce Burga
(2)
CARE Peru, Lima, Peru (2)
contact: luis.vicuna@geo.uzh.ch
Abstract
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in; }Considerable scientific and economic efforts have been put into the
development of scientific models as a basis for climate change adaptation. Such models are
increasingly solicited by different institutions (political institutions as well as organizations of
international cooperation) for planning purposes of strategies to climate change adaptation.This
paper draws on the experiences of several research projects in Peru in which Peruvian and Swiss
governmental and non-governmental entities have cooperated in order to work with scientific models
for adaptation purposes at the political as well as the local level in Peru. Important topics among
others have been glacier retreat, disaster reduction, agricultural practices, integral resource
management.The challenges made out in the projects mentioned above showed clearly that that there
is a consensus about the necessity of integration of a so called “human dimension” into models based
on natural sciences. Nevertheless, there are different perceptions and ideas on (1) how to handle
those aspects in order to improve the models and on (2) how to use the models in practice.For an
improvement of the models the question of what kind of information concerning the “human
dimension” needs to be integrated into the models was crucial. Important aspects have been central
in the discussions like e.g. the (role of) local knowledge including ancestral knowledge, demographic
information, socio-economic indicators as well as the social, political and cultural framework and the
historical background. In terms of the use of the models, crucial differences of the perceptions are
found in terms of the (necessary) contextualization of the results for local communities, international
cooperation bodies and governmental institutions.These perceptions, ideas and data availability
concerning the “human dimension” have had crucial impacts for the development of adaptation
strategies and the processes of the projects. The perceptions have been assessed within their specific
institutional context taking into account the background of the institutions as well as the individuals.
Taking the context as dynamic and not static has turned out to be a challenge but of high
importance.On the basis of the above mentioned projects, different methods, their advantages and
limits in terms of the contextualizations of scientific models for the respective purposes mentioned
above (improvement and specific use of models by different institutions) are discussed. Special
attention is paid to the process of projects and the negotiations about the methods and information
concerning the “human dimension” of models.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MULTI-LEVEL ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE

APPROACHES: INSIGHTS FROM CANADA'S "ADAPTATION PLATFORM"
Elizabeth Atkinson (1) *; Marie-Caroline Badjeck (1); Beth Lavender (1); Nick Xenos (1)
Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Ottawa Ontario, Canada (1)
contact: mbadjeck@nrcan.gc.ca
Abstract
Adaptation is widely recognized as a complex multi-scale and multi-sectoral issue: climate change
impacts cut across economic sectors and jurisdictional boundaries, and the knowledge, capacity and
financial resources needed to respond to these impacts are scattered among many stakeholders.
Multi-level and adaptive governance systems are increasingly considered as promising approaches to
climate change adaptation. Multi-level governance systems aim to support coordination and
interaction among and between state and non-state actors horizontally (across geographical scales
and jurisdictions), and vertically (across societal domains and organizations). In adaptive governance
approaches, innovation and transformation are central components of resilience. This paper presents
a case study of a new adaptive, multi-level governance approach for tackling the complex issue of
adaptation. The Adaptation Platform is a unique mechanism in Canada bringing together national
industry and professional organizations, representatives from federal, provincial and territorial
governments, and other relevant organizations to address shared adaptation priorities. The Platform
provides a forum to pool across governance levels the knowledge, capacity and financial resources
needed to efficiently produce decision-useful information and tools that regions and key industries
need to better understand and effectively adapt to a changing climate. The Platform also stimulates
innovation by connecting previously unconnected bodies of knowledge and end-users to find
solutions. Indeed, the Platform engages for the first time in one forum government representatives,
private sector actors such as Engineers Canada and the Chartered Professional Accountants of
Canada, and research consortia such as Ouranos (Québec) and the Yukon Research Centre to define
shared adaptation priorities and the type of actions needed to address them.In this presentation, we
explore the genesis of the Adaptation Platform, including the policy context in which it was
designed, and its main features. Drawing on an analysis of Platform activities since its inception in
March 2012 and preliminary products, the paper highlights the challenges in designing and
implementing a multi-level adaptive governance approach, as well as the opportunities created for
mainstreaming climate change adaptation and spurring innovation. The latter includes the potential
for knowledge and tools to be co-created, disseminated, adopted, and applied more effectively in
everyday management practices of a variety of societal domains and organizations.

12-16 May 2014
STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY FOR RESPONDINGTO

CLIMATE CHANGE BY THINKING OF KNOWLEDGE AS A NUTRIENT
Dawn Bazely (1) *; Nicole Klenk (2); Ellie Perkins (1); Miriam Duialibi (3)
York University, Toronto, ON, Canada (1)
University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada (2)
ECOAR Brazil, Sao Paulo, Brazil (3)
contact: dbazely@yorku.ca
Abstract
In April 2009, we held an international conference at York University, Toronto, Canada. Activists
and academics who work with NGOs from the Global South and North came together to discuss
adaptation to climate change. Most significantly, the Canadian perspective was entirely presented by
First Nations and Inuit, which is highly unusual at conferences of this kind held in the Canadian
south. This conference triggered and reinforced a cascade of diverse activities and research that
followed many different, sometimes intertwining pathways, that crossed and diverged over time. Our
presentation describes several key knowledge-related factors that emerged from both the field
experiences shared at the conference, and the related research, that support the adaptive capacity of
disenfranchised peoples in Brazil, India, South Africa, Canada and beyond. We describe five main
knowledge-related themes and how they link to the knowledge-flow cycle, as it is explained with
reference to ecosystem studies. This knowledge cycle helps to clarify the relationship between
knowledge, justice and adaptive capacity. Using key processes in ecosystem ecology, this knowledge
framework succinctly illustrates how the knowledge circulating among communities at the local and
global levels is analogous to ecosystem nutrient cycles and is open BOTH to long term capture and
destruction on the one hand, AND effective mobilization and deployment in the adaptation process
on the other hand. We suggest that by recognizing and modifying knowledge flows we can, more
effectively build adaptive capacity for disenfranchised peoples everywhere. Finally, we describe
some of the follow-up actions to recommendations emerging from this 2009 conference: e.g.
applying for and obtaining observer status at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, for York University, Toronto, where we launched a knowledge mobilization network,
GlobalClimateJustice.net, AND making the case for the concept of Human Security being relevant to
the Arctic (Environmental and Human Security in the Arctic).

12-16 May 2014
FISCAL ANATOMY OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UK: VERDICTS

AND CONFRONTS
Komali Kantamaneni (1) *; Michael Phillips (1); Rhian Jenkins (1)

University of Wales Trinity Saint David, Swansea, Wales, UK (1)
contact: komali.kantamaneni@sm.uwtsd.ac.uk
Abstract
Abstract Radical emissions in 21st century commit the earth to certain levels of future warming and
will feasibly exceed the 20C verge by dangerous anthropogenic interventions. In modern era, the
understanding of the inevitability of climate change has invigorated by adaptation study. However,
due to the lack of centralized focus on adaptation procedures comprehensively, still it is continuing
as a major problem in the United Kingdom. Accordingly, It has been proposed that in order to
establish a vigorous 21st century environment, adaptation measures need to be applied before 2020.
Significantly reducing green house gas emissions to below 1990 or pre-industrial levels is one vital
advocated approach. Consequently, this qualitative research highlights challenging accuracies about
implementing fiscal adaptation procedures of the United Kingdom by incorporating novel
methodology, i.e. 4 Track method\analysis. According to preliminary estimates from initial
assessments, current UK climate adaptation costs are over £100 million, which includes 5 main
categories. It will be rise to £ 180 million to £2 billion (in worst case scenario) by 2080. These
adaptation costs reduce growth only 0.006 % to 0.1% at national level. Consequently, this study
evaluates whether or not adaptation costs have had any significant impact on the national
economy/GDP as well as local economies.Keywords: Climate Change; Adaptation; Costs; UK

12-16 May 2014
SHAPING NATIONAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES WITH ECONOMIC TOOLS:

POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS BASED ON EXPERIENCES IN GERMANY AND
AUSTRIA
Clemens Haße (1) *; Martin König (2)

Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Roßlau, Germany (1)
Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria (2)
contact: clemens.hasse@uba.de
Abstract
Economics of adaptation gain more and more relevance for policymakers. However their added
value for national and sub-national level is still limited. Economic data on a small scale is often
insufficient. Costs and benefits of adaptation options are hard to quantify, especially on so called soft
adaptation measures.The Environment Agencies in Germany and Austria apply economic methods to
raise the quality of national adaptation in their countries. Both countries are currently assessing
options for private as well as public adaptation. In Germany a framework for cost-benefit analyses
was developed and deployed on several case studies. Austria has put forward a national assessment
(including macro-economic CGE modeling) for the climate costs of inaction to depict potential
benefits of adaptation.The presentation will present the experiences both countries gained in
applying economic methods in national adaptation. We willshow case studies on assessing
adaptation optionsexplain how we link economic tools with the perspective and aims of environment
agencies (sustainability, resilience, biodiversity)discuss the challenges of assessing the intended and
unintended effects of adaptation policies on economy, society and environment,discuss possibilities
and limitations in using economics in adaptation policy making on the national level

12-16 May 2014
ECONOMICS FOR ADAPTATION DECISIONS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
Ferenc Toth (1) *

Abstract
Incremental climate change and the related changes in the patterns of extreme weather events will
increasingly affect the energy sector over the coming decades. Many components of the energy
supply infrastructure (thermal, nuclear and hydropower plants, pipelines, etc.) incur large upfront
investment costs and have long economic lifetimes. Their economic performance is fundamental for
the investors and their services (electricity, heat, fuels) are indispensable for the society and the
economy. This raises a wide range of adaptation decisions ranging from regulatory and design
standards to investment decisions for climate proofing new builds and operating decisions of existing
infrastructure.A broad range of decision making tools can be used to provide substantial information
for policy makers involved in adaptation decisions at various levels. The choice among them is
largely determined by the role of the user in making adaptation decision in the energy sector:
owner/operator of a power plant; manager of a utility with a broader set of assets, regional or
national energy sector regulator responsible for reliable supply of energy, etc.This presentation will
assess a range of economic decision tools with a view to their potential applicability in adaptation
decisions in the energy sector. The tools include decision analysis (integrating utility theory,
probability, and mathematical optimisation), cost-benefit analysis (valuing all costs and benefits of a
possible adaptation options over time where the primary decision criterion to accept or turn down an
adaptation measure is that the sum of discounted benefits should exceed the sum of discounted
costs), cost-effectiveness analysis (taking a predetermined objective, such as power delivery
obligation, and seeking ways to accomplish it as inexpensively as possible), and portfolio theory
(trying to create an optimal composition of energy supply assets, characterized by different returns
and different levels of risks, under a budget constraint).

12-16 May 2014
A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC MODELING OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND

ADAPTATION IN GLOBAL INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS
Xuanming Su (1) *; Kiyoshi Takahashi (1); Toshihiko Masui (1); Naota Hanasaki (1); Yasuaki
Hijioka (1); Shinichiro Fujimori (1); Tomoko Hasegawa (1); Akemi Tanaka (1,2)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (1)
Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan (2)
contact: su.xuanming@nies.go.jp
Abstract
The climatic Integrated Assessment Model is a quite useful tool for understanding the issue of
climate change and providing possible climate policy suggestions. Recently, since people realize that
the climate change is most likely unavoidable, the climate change adaptation attracts more and more
attention. Accordingly, this review evaluates 19 influential or in active development Integrated
Assessment Models, in terms of specific modeling approaches and related results. The objective
optimization Integrated Assessment Model uses the economic production function to integrate
different factor inputs with different nested structures. The aggregated monetary production losses or
biophysical damages are estimated to represent the impacts from climate change. Recent impact
assessment focuses on the vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, etc. For
regional disparity, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than developed
countries. According to the review, several issues are highlighted. 1) It is practical for current
objective optimization Integrated Assessment Models to consider either sectoral details or regional
details, rather than both of them synchronously due to the computational complexity. 2) As to the
proactive adaptation, the character of time lag should be modeled explicitly. 3) To meet the needs of
investment decision-makers, differentiation should be made to the climate change adaptation from
economic, population-related and technological "adaptation". 4) It is important to distinguish
between sectors or endpoints with respect to climate change impacts and this would help model
developers to provide additional detailed information about climate change mitigation and
adaptation. 5) The Integrated Assessment Models also need to consider the emerging climate
engineering, including both carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management. The Integrated
Assessment Model is expected to integrate all the necessary information to find the solutions of
climate change mitigation and adaptation, or even climatic geoengineering.

12-16 May 2014
VALUATION OF CARBON BALANCE FROM LAND USE/COVER AND CLIMATE

CHANGES SCENARIOS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL.
Bruna Pavani (1) *; Wilson Sousa Junior (1); Carlos Inouye (1); Simone Vieira (2); Allan Iwama (2)
Aeronautics Technology Institute, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil (1)
University of Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: brunapavani@gmail.com
Abstract
The carbon storage and sequestration are linked to ecosystem function of climate regulation,
essential ecological processes sustaining life support. In this paper is presented a methodology for
valuation of carbon balance generated by land use and land cover (LULC) change between past
(2010) and predictive (2030) scenarios, for the Northern Coast of São Paulo. Therefore, it was
applied the Carbon Storage and Sequestration module of the InVEST 2.4.5 model (The Natural
Capital Project) that aggregates the amount stored in each stock of carbon in landscapes maps of land
use and land cover, according to the market price of carbon for REDD projects and the discount rate
of the financial market. The results showed an alarming release of carbon into the atmosphere,
intensifying the negative effects of climate change. It was found distinct values for the release of
carbon in the three scenarios generated. The values pointed in legal framework and status quo
scenarios are similar to the previous period, respectively US$ 6.068.640 and US$ 5.637.930 for the
reduction of the carbon storage capacity. However, when the forcings related to new ventures in the
region associated with infrastructure logistics and oil and gas exploration were considered, the
pressure on natural environments was significantly higher and the loss exceeded US$ 85.117.504.
Inserting an increase in atmospheric temperature, the valuation of the carbon loss surpassed US$
150.103.008 for the new ventures scenario, demonstrating a potential large impact associated with
global warming. In all cases, a large financial loss was demonstrated that would be caused by human
interventions in the region, it was intensified when considered the implementation of new projects
and exceeded the boundaries of protected areas and ecological economic zoning of the area.The
economic analysis was pointed as an alternative analysis through of the most common financial and
marketing elements for shareholders and society, trying to facilitate interpretation of results and
enabling the use of them.

12-16 May 2014
OPTIMAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS LIE IN BEST-PRACTICE

BUSINESS AND SMART PUBLIC POLICY SPACE: LEARNINGS FROM AUSTRALIAN
AGRIFOOD AND FIBRE CASE STUDIES
Glenn Ronan (1,2); Anne-Maree Dowd (3) *; Mark Howden (4); Aysha Fleming (5); Estelle Gaillard
(6); Emma Jakku (3); Digby Race (1,2)
Ninti One, CRC-Remote Economic Participation, Alice Springs, NT, Australia (1)
DPIF, NT Government, Alice Springs, NT, Australia (2)
CSIRO, Brisbane, QLD, Australia (3)
CSIRO, Hobart, TAS, Australia (5)
CSIRO, Highett, VIC, Australia (6)
contact: anne-maree.dowd@csiro.au
Abstract
Understanding the economic behaviour of decision makers in agrifood and fibre industries is key to
assessing the type, amount, location and the timing of adaptive action required to manage projected
climate change. We argue that although much has been learnt from normative economics (what
ought to be occurring), to develop ‘best practice’ in different primary industry sectors, more research
from positive economics (what is actually occurring) is needed. This has the added benefits of
demonstrability: a key element in adoption. In addition, economists have historically called for
‘major, non-marginal’ change to manage the scale of market failure presented by climate change.
Ideally, this would combine rational economics and contemporary science to produce smarter
solutions that make sense in multiple dimensions, including at a transformative scale. Inclusion of
transformational adaptation explicitly forces the consideration of non-marginal changes but we note
that further investigation is needed to evaluate its role in effective decision making frameworks used
by business operators. This investigation seeks to understand the capacity of business stakeholders to
reconcile financial, climate, social and policy ‘best practice’ at multiple adaptation scales, including
transformational. This presentation will report on the authors’ research that tests a convergence
model incorporating triple bottom line and policy factors within the cropping, livestock, wine, and
forestry industries across Australia. In the frame of better integrated science and economics, it was
found that ‘best practice’ is not business as usual as it is too complex and too dynamic and if not
effectively communicated and adopted by agri-businesses, then the lack of uptake effects climate
adaptation thinking, planning and implementation. Additional salient factors not captured in the
original model were also shown to be influential, such as transformative leadership, capacity,
systems thinking, succession planning, agency and the power of collaboration or adaptive
governance. For primary industries, future climate adaptation is likely to include increased
transformational adaptation options, but it is apparent from the case studies that transformational
adaptation does not guarantee success. This is more dependent on superior planning and risk
management, convergence of science and economics in business development and decision-making,
along with context knowledge and effective process, rather than prescriptive strategy.

12-16 May 2014
MUDANÇA DO CLIMA E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A SAÚDE: AVALIAÇÃO DE

CUSTO-DOENÇA PARA OS AGRAVOS RELACIONADOS À VARIABILIDADE
CLIMÁTICA.
Carlos Pereira (1) *; Martha Barata (1); Sandra Hacon (1); Diego Lima (2); Nertan Júnior (2); Duarte
Costa (3); Eliana Silva (2); Thayna Souza (2); Tânia Bonfim (2)
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro,RJ, Brazil (1)
Secretaria de Saúde do Estado do Acre, Rio Branco,AC, Brazil (2)
Universidade de Exeter, Exeter, UK (3)
Abstract
Avaliações econômicas são ferramentas utilizadas para oferecer aos gestores um subsídio para a
destinação efetiva de recursos e uma análise das implicações das possíveis decisões, uma vez que é
necessário eleger prioridades de investimento. No setor saúde, as avaliações econômicas são
importantes nas decisões entre alternativas tecnológicas e na implantação de serviços. Dentre os tipos
de avaliações econômicas mais utilizadas em saúde estão as Avaliações de Custo-Doença, que são
voltadas a descrever o impacto financeiro provocado por determinada doença ou agravo,
aproximando-se do seu custo social. Está sendo desenvolvido, pela Universidade de Exeter e seus
parceiros, o projeto PULSE, cujo objetivo é criar uma plataforma chamada de PULSE-Brasil, que de
forma gratuita, permitirá analisar, visualizar e compreender as interações entre o clima, ecossistemas
e saúde humana no Brasil, em particular na Amazônia. O estado do Acre foi escolhido para ser um
piloto de aplicação desta plataforma, que contém séries temporais de dados ambientais, clima e saúde
que permitem estruturar cenários de impactos futuros relacionados com a variabilidade climática. No
intuito de aprimorar a Plataforma, inserindo nela mecanismos capazes de oferecer aos usuários
avaliações econômicas de custo-doença, iniciou-se um estudo específico sobre o custo social da
malária para o estado do Acre, doença endêmica de elevada prevalência na bacia Amazônia. O
estudo em desenvolvimento será inserido na Plataforma PULSE, com informações como: custos
diretos médicos e não médicos, perda de produtividade, anos potenciais de vida perdidos, perda
potencial de renda devido ao óbito, além de cenários de custo para períodos futuros. Para o
desenvolvimento deste estudo, estão sendo utilizados dados secundários cedidos pela Secretaria de
Saúde do estado do Acre. Os métodos utilizados se baseiam em conhecimento já existente, porém
são propostos alguns ajustes e complementos que podem melhorar a sua aplicação. É relevante
considerar para Avaliações de Custo-Doença o princípio da indeterminação (incerteza), alcançando-
se uma estimativa aceitável para que determinados processos possam ser compreendidos. A
plausibilidade de um estudo deste tipo consiste na obtenção do custo aproximado de uma doença,
dado útil para interação entre as partes interessadas (pesquisadores, gestores e comunidade) e para
melhoria nas práticas de gestão em saúde e ambiente. Após o termino do estudo da malária,
pretende-se estender a metodologia para as demais doenças inseridas no escopo da Plataforma, a
saber: dengue, diarreia aguda, infecções respiratórias agudas e leptospirose; doenças estas que
também são sensíveis às variações climáticas.

12-16 May 2014
FUNDING PUBLIC ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE-RELATED DISASTERS. ESTIMATES

FOR A GLOBAL CLIMATE FUND
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler (1); Reinhard Mechler (1,2) *; Georg Pflug (1); Keith Williges (1)
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (1)
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria (2)
contact: mechler@iiasa.ac.at
Abstract
Managing disaster risk is increasingly being considered a key line of response in climate adaptation.
While financial support for adaptation has been pledged, rationales for support and the cost
implications are essentially unclear, which may explain why financing is currently only forthcoming
at very low levels. Various estimates for the costs of adaptation have been suggested, yet the
rationale and robustness of the estimates has been difficult to verify. Focusing on weather-related
extremes events, we conduct a global assessment of the public finance costs of extreme event risks.
In doing so, we assess countries’ financial vulnerability, which we operationalize as the public
sector’s ability to pay for relief to the affected population and to support the reconstruction of lost
assets and infrastructure. We find that many countries appear financially vulnerable and would
require assistance from the donor community in order to bolster their financial resilience. Our
estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a global fund for absorbing different layers of country
risks; we find the costs for different risk layers to be in the range of a few billion dollars annually.
Our estimates relate to today’s climate, and while disaster losses have currently not been robustly
linked to climate change, physical science has made a strong point in attributing changes in climate
extremes to anthropogenically induced radiative forcing. We suggest that estimates of current
climate variability and related risks, although also associated with substantial uncertainty, can be
interpreted as a basis for projections of future risk linked to climate extremes.

12-16 May 2014
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION - A STATE OF THE ART REVIEW
Anna Glucker (2); Kim van Nieuwaal (1,2) *

Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands (1)
Knowledge fro Climate, Utrecht, The Netherlands (2)
contact: k.van.nieuwaal@programmabureauklimaat.nl
Abstract
Adaptation to climate change has entered the mainstream debate and substantial budgets are
increasingly being allocated to research on and investments in adaptation measures, but ‘the
economics of climate adaptation' remains relatively unexplored. In addition, the field is multi-
facetted and specialized, with practically no publications supplying basic overviews. We have
therefore carried out a state of the art review of the literature. We found that economic aspects of
climate adaptation can be grouped into six themes: (1.) economic impact studies, (2.) studies on costs
and benefits of different adaptation measures, (3.) studies on timing of adaptation measures, (4.)
studies on the macroeconomic aspects, (5.) studies dealing with equity and cross-generational justice,
and (6.) studies focusing on poverty reduction in the context of climate change. The subsequent
inventory of the toolkit that economists use with regard to climate adaptation appears as diverse,
including (a.) cost benefit analysis, (b.) multi-criteria analysis, (c.) real options analysis, (d.) scenario
analysis, (e.) robust analysis, and (f.) general equilibrium modeling.From the literature review we
concluded that particularly at the local and regional level there is lack of an integrative framework
and toolkit to address the actual needs of policy makers and planners. For instance, not only is the
focus often on costs of flooding, ignoring heat stress for example, also longer time horizons are
generally overlooked. From that recognition, the Dutch national research program Knowledge for
Climate has invested substantially in tools to address this problem. The ambition is to be able to
calculate the climate adaption deficit for any city in the country. First results will be available mid-
2014 and are expected to be worth reflected on in the light of the here presented state of the art
review.

12-16 May 2014
A GLOBAL ECONOMY-CLIMATE MODEL WITH HIGH REGIONAL RESOLUTION
Anthony Smith (1) *; Per Krusell (2)

Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA (1)
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden (2)
contact: tony.smith@yale.edu
Abstract
This paper develops a global economy-climate model with high regional resolution. Specifically, this
paper builds an integrated-assessment model featuring a microeconomic foundation (to permit
welfare analysis); a very large number of regions and substantial region-specific detail; rich
economic interactions between regions (such as capital flows); and uncertainty about weather and
climate. The model is used, one, to measure the heterogeneous effects across different regions of
climate change and climate policy; and, two, to study the global effects of heterogeneous policy
(such as carbon taxes that vary by region). The paper thus expands substantially on the DICE and
RICE models of William Nordhaus, pushing out the research frontier to allow the quantitative
evaluation of climate change and climate policy at a level of geographic resolution that those models
do not permit. It also introduces economic mechanisms upon which these models are silent. These
include spatial adaptation---through movements of resources between regions in response to
differential warming at different points on the globe and through "leakage" of resources in response
to differential climate policy across regions---as well as (partial) insurance against shocks to weather
and climate.The model consists of approximately 20,000 (1-degree by 1-degree) regions that interact
through global energy and financial markets and through the global carbon cycle and climate system.
An empirical statistical downscaling model estimated using high-resolution panel data on
temperature maps the global temperature into a stochastic process for regional temperature. Regional
temperature, in turn, determines regional damages in a way that depends on a region's location.
Damage functions are calibrated to replicate relationships between temperature and regional GDP
using data from Nordhaus's G-Econ database. The model's output consists of (stochastic) time paths
for global temperature and global carbon emissions as well as (stochastic) time paths for
temperature, GDP, and capital inflows and outflows for each of the 20,000 regions. The model also
delivers quantitative evaluations of welfare for each of these regions. Welfare differs by regions both
because climate change affects regions differently and because climate policy differs across regions.
The model can therefore assess quantitatively the distributional effects of climate change and climate
policy, an essential input into international negotiations on climate policy.

12-16 May 2014
DEVELOPMENT OR ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS: CASE STUDIES FROM BOLIVIAN

ANDEAN MUNICIPALITIES
Ariel Chavez (1); Paula Pacheco (1) *

Abstract
Changing climate increases the vulnerability of people living in one of the most biodiverse countries
in the world (PNUMA, 2009), whom also depend on natural resources to push forward their
development. Adaptation measures are needed to counteract the impacts of climate change.
Decision-makers are forced with the challenge to implement economically efficient and effective
climate change policies and adaptation measures in different levels (local, national and regional) in
order to surpass certain climate change impacts.This paper presents an economic analysis of
adaptation strategies to climate change and criteria with regard to the level of adaptation any local
community might need according to its dependency on natural resources, only considered as inputs
for livelihood. Specifically, in Latin American countries, there is already a culture set in the minds of
local authorities for planning development in a 3 to 4 year basis through a master plan from which
annual plans and budgets are detached. This work explores the conditions in which this type of
planning is also suitable for adaptation in terms of scope, length and synergy.This work uses a Multi-
Criteria analysis and Cost-Benefit analysis as appropriate decision-support tools in the context of
local adaptation to climate change. It applies Cost-Benefit analysis for a quantitative assessment of
costs and benefits of climate-proofing spatial planning at local level with dependency for natural
resources such as water and forestry because they are seen traditionally as the drivers for economic
growth; however, they might also be considered as drivers for starting a culture of planning the
adaptation without risking development.To address this objective, the study i) assess the local
vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in a natural resource base at local level, for later ii)
exploring approved annual budgets in order to determine if the level of past and current investments
were oriented to preserve or mainstreamed the use of them, iii) recommend when and how to
integrate adaptation planning to development planning to iv) finally recommend possibilities for
linking local initiatives to national possibilities such as NAPAs, NAPs or similar mechanisms.Our
work considers case studies from the Plurinational State of Bolivia, as they provide information on
lessons learned, insights gained and principles on adaptation to climate change from a sector, local
and country level and by helping policy makers worldwide to prioritize actions for greater resilience
to climate change

12-16 May 2014
COMMUNICATION OF ADAPTATION RESEARCH RESULTS
Jennifer Striebeck (1) *

Abstract
The challenge of climate change is widely acknowledged on international and national agendas, and
strategies for mitigation and adaptation are discussed on political and scientific level; however, to
many people the issue of climate change and adaptation remains an abstract concept which is often
linked to a profound skepticism. Reasons for the skepticism are mainly linked to an information
deficit - especially in regard to the timing and actual consequences of climate change. Yet, the
experiences with extreme weather events and the resulting affectedness make adaptation measures
particularly at local levels indispensable which also demand action from municipal and business
players. In order to prepare for short term distortions like extreme precipitations or storms
information on regional effects of climate change becomes crucial. In the framework of Germany's
largest research funding activity "KLIMZUG" - which is focusing on the development of regional
strategies for adaptation to climate change in seven model regions - a survey on perception, concern
and approaches towards climate change adaptation was conducted with 1,040 executives and 317
municipal administrations in Germany. This player-specific approach highlights the different
experiences, interests and strategies towards adaptation which also result in different information
requirements. The presentation will elaborate on the results of the survey in regard to information
necessities. It is interesting to see that the majority of municipalities claim to have an information
deficit in regard to the causalities and the different influences of climate change in their region. In
contrast to this, companies would like to get more detailed information on the level of the weather
extremes and are also interested in technical solutions and proposals for adaptation measures. The
presentation will subsequently also focus on targeted information and communication activities
conducted in the KLIMZUG- model regions. Climate change adaptation measures which haven been
locally implemented by various players can work as role model. Thereby, questions about municipal
causalities can be answered and also information about the experience of businesses with technical
adaptation solutions can be generated. Furthermore, the credibility of the information can be
increased by the practical experience of municipalities and businesses and thus, the skepticism
towards the issue of climate change can be diminished.

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COMMUNICATION IN

PROMOTING ENGAGEMENT WITH CLIMATE SCIENCE AND ADAPTATION
Gregor Vulturius (1) *; Åsa Gerger Swartling (1,2); Karin André (1)
Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden (1)
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden (2)
contact: gregor.vulturius@sei-international.org
Abstract
Climate change is expected to profoundly impact social-ecological systems in the coming decades
and adaptation is needed for reducing the vulnerability of societies to climate change impacts.
Governments and researchers worldwide are now grappling with the question how to promote
engagement with climate change adaptation and enhance the adaptive capacity of the stakeholders of
social-ecological systems. Despite its achievements in developing scientific knowledge about
potential climate change impacts, so far adaptation research has had limited success in encouraging
stakeholders of natural-resource-based economic sectors to take adaptive action. The objective of
this study is to assess the effectiveness of climate change communication (CCC) in promoting
engagement with climate science and adaptation among forestry stakeholders. The study asks if CCC
can lead to cognitive, affective and relational learning and changes in attitudes and behavior
regarding adaptation to climate change risks. In detail, this study will assess, based on a quantitative
research design, if perceptions and attitudes about climate risks and adaptation options significantly
differ between those forestry owners that have and those that have not participated in CCC. The
study examines the influence of preference for different forestry objectives, personal experience with
extreme events, trust in climate science, gender, age, social capital, education and dependency on
income from forestry activities as well as other factors on how forestry stakeholders perceive of
climate change risks, the efficacy of adaptive measures and their own ability to adapt to climate
change. Findings are based on a survey comprising responses from approximately 6000 forestry
owners in Sweden of which half took part in a CCC project carried out by the Swedish Forestry
Agency. Propensity score matching and related statistical methods are used to estimate the effect of
CCC on the perception of climate risks, perceived efficacy of adaptation measures, perceived self-
efficacy and actual adaptive action of participants and non-participants of the CCC project. Results
of this study offer insights into how CCC can be improved by better addressing the varying
objectives and decision making processes of stakeholders of social-ecological systems.

12-16 May 2014
CREATIVE CLIMATE COMMUNICATIONS: APPRAISING EXPERIMENTAL

LEARNING TOOLS FOR COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION
Maxwell Boykoff (1) *; Pablo Suarez (1); Janot Mendler de Suarez (3); Bettina Koelle (4)
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA (1)
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands (2)
Boston University Pardee Center for the Study of > the Longer-Range Future, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (3)
INDIGO development & change, Nieuwoudtville, South Africa (4)
contact: boykoff@colorado.edu
Abstract
Developments in experimental learning approaches have demonstrated potential to improve the co-
production and sharing of information and insights for community-based adaptation (CBA), by
reinforcing both direct personal experience and the perception of shared knowledge. This project
deploys assessment tools to gauge the effectiveness of these gameplay activities that link decisions
with consequences, combine collaboration and competition, reveal differences and commonalities in
understanding problems and solutions, seek to resonate with multi-scale actors and generate
collective adaptation intelligence. Partnering with in situ Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre
actions in multiple field sites in Africa, we appraise the extent to which various experimental
learning approaches bring a range of different stakeholders together, encourage improved
communication and understanding, and inspire participants to discover joint interests as well as
differences in priorities. In so doing, we seek to inform queries regarding how participatory learning
partnerships that support synergistic approaches aspire to address complexity and context-dependent
CBA endeavors. These analyses aim to more systematically map the limitations and opportunities
these gameplay activities present for more effective communication and connected actions that scale
up from community levels to a wider scope of adaptation. We interrogate questions such as: how can
these approaches help a range of actors - such as subsistence farmers, humanitarian and development
workers, government officials, and donors - to navigate the complex range of plausible climate risk
management choices and outcomes? How can these experimental learning approaches engage
diverse people and organizations so that they can access, understand, trust, generate, and deploy
more effective adaptation strategies? These experimental learning activities have been emerging in
the context of a wider and fundamental set of questions involving how communication strategies on
climate change can be most effective in meeting people where they are, while inspiring and enabling
new considerations, capacities as well as meaningful and sustained adaptation behaviors.

12-16 May 2014
CHANGING CLIMATE CHANGE RISK AND ADAPTATION COMMUNICATION

STRATEGY: EVIDENCE FROM ADAPTATION BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE
MODELLING OF SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN SUDAN SAVANNAH ZONE OF
GHANA
John Appah (1,2) *

Université Cheikh Anta Diop. Faculty of Economics and management. Climate Change Economics PhD Programme, Dakar, Senegal
(1)
Ghana Forestry Commission, Accra, Ghana (2)
contact: ebosmiths@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract
Several attempts to facilitate private climate change adaptation action have not been effective mainly
due to the strict categorization of subjects as either adaptors or non-adaptors. This paper’s objective
is to analyze the risk perceptions and private adaptive behavioural change stages of food crop
farmers in rural communities due to climate change based on both socio-economic and psychological
determinants. The import of this article converges with theme E of adaptation futures 2014
conference; ‘understanding, measuring and communicating adaptation’. The study was based on
survey data of 260 farm households in the Atankwidi River Basin. The parsimonious Generalized
Ordered Logit modelling based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) – Trans Theoretical Model
(TTM) was employed to analyze farmers’ adaptive behavioural change. The results show that
farmers are in three sub-groups of adaptation behavioural change intention (pre-contemplation,
contemplation, and action) with significant differences between each group. Household’s adaptation
behavioural change tends to increase from pre-contemplation stage to contemplation and action
stages with increase in education, off-farm income, access to informal credit, drought experience,
flood experience, access to climate change information, and perceived severity of climate change
impacts. However, marriage, increase in both perceived cost of adaptation, and trust in government
for public or planned adaptation decrease the likelihood of households to change their adaptive
behaviour from a lower intention stage to an action stage. Therefore climate change risk and
adaptation communication policies and programmes need to change from the one-fit all approach to
risk and adaptation communication targeting with tailor-made strategies that account for these factors
to suit farm households at different stages of the adaptation behavioural change ladder in order to
invoke adaptive action.Keywords: risk perception, risk and adaptation communication targeting,
adaptive behavioural change

12-16 May 2014
DAMMING THE FLOW: A CROSS-CULTURAL DISCOURSE ANALYSIS OF MEDIA,

ENVIRONMENTAL ADAPTATION AND CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA AND BRAZIL
Ruth Beilin (1); Antonio Almeida (2) *; Amanda Lo Cascio (1); Edson Correa (2)
University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil (2)
contact: rbeilin@unimelb.edu.au
Abstract
In this paper we explore how the Australian and Brazilian media presents a contested vision of the
environment thereby minimising possibilities for citizen participation action and adaptation in the
face of climate change. The Brazilian Piracicaba Basin and the Australian Murray-Darling Basin
provide the lens for the analysis of media roles in reporting the transformation of these systems in
recent times. The two rich and diverse nations provide surprisingly comparable media narratives
associated with recent past and development of their agricultural and environmental water systems.
We use these two analyses to formulate a more extensive argument that we perceive as underpinning
the national discourse on river basin management, and that is its connection to adaptation for climate
change. Both Brazil and Australia have experienced clearly delineated propaganda wars (Chomsky
and Edwards); and the mass media carries significant responsibility for framing information for the
everyday citizen, despite the growing importance of social networks and the internet. In fact, using
both content analysis and critical discourse analysis, we explain how the political power of water in
the landscapes of these nations is deliberately invoked to report on serious environmental issues in
highly polarised ways, which masks the lack of connection to or discourse about climate change and
adaptation. Considering that the IPPC (2007) says that adaptation depends on speed, recognition of
uncertainty and the ability to make decisions among multiple inter-related causes, the role of media
is paramount in there being a more profound citizen engagement with climate change and adaptation.
The social processes and social dimensions of adaptation demand a democratisation of media but
these two nations still look to the established television and newspaper media for more serious
guidance and reporting of events and commentary. We agree with Pelling (2011) that adaptation to
climate change is an opportunity for social reform, that adaptation itself is a social and political act
and therefore we argue that empowerment is central to effectively understanding what is required of
us as citizens to be able to act in socially responsible ways for future generations. Our mutual
research using the two case studies as evidence, indicates that significant change begins with
understanding the media neglect and complicity in ‘connecting the dots’ between daily reporting of
environment issues and climate change adaptation.

12-16 May 2014
A REFLECTION ON THE CLIMATE ASPECTS IN THE DISCOURSES OF THE MEDIA

AND OF THE URBAN PLANNING IN CAMPINAS, SP
Flavio Santos (1) *; Lucí Nunes (1)

Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
contact: flaviorenato@gmail.com
Abstract
This work aims to investigate how the environmental matters - emphasizing climatic aspects - appear
on the official documents of urban space organization in the Brazilian city of Campinas (SP), a task
we undertook noting impressions and seeking to capture intentions which could indicate the
relevance given by the local population to the theme. Campinas is the host city of its metropolitan
region, 99 km away from the state capital, shelters almost 1,115 million inhabitants and concentrates
activities in agribusiness, high technology and services that sum up to R$80 billion a year. Facing the
importance of the city suggested by these numbers, we questioned how the city's population
apprehends the conjunction between risk and vulnerability, with an understanding that prevention
can be determinant on mitigation of tragedies and losses.We followed the process of revision of the
1995's municipal master plan, oriented to the conception of the "new" plan in 2006, building from
there a reflection on its popular legitimating mechanisms and the incorporation of topics related to
extreme events and natural disasters. To do so, we used climate data through which we pointed out
the occurrences of days with intense rain, and also periods with water shortage.Then we selected a
local media representative (Jornal Correio Popular, a newspaper) and ascertained the news regarding
those events pointed out in the previous stage, to which we added other inputs, such as words and
expressions related to atmospheric phenomena that have potential to cause derangement in the city
(for instance, "floods" and "storm"). Analyzing this set we have made considerations on the quantity
and quality of the news, discussing journalistic approach and individual perception through the
reader's narratives.From the confrontation amongst the various information obtained, we concluded
that there was a gap between the proposal of a democratic process and what denotes the experience
of each one of the actors involved with the constitution of municipal guidelines. Thus, converge to
the reproduction of natural disasters at a local scale the lack of engagement of the citizens and
shallow commitment of the political representatives, as well as the fragile collaboration of the local
print media towards a critical reflection on the causes of these events.Keywords: geographic
climatology, media approach, urban planning, vulnerability, perception, extreme events, natural
disasters, hazards.

12-16 May 2014
COMMUNICATING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK

REDUCTION: INSIGHTS INTO AN AUSTRIAN APPROACH FOR FACILITATING
ADAPTATION ACTION.
Maximilian Riede (1,2) *; Steffen Link (1); Lars Keller (2); Brigitte Eder (1)
Institute for Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (2)
contact: riede@alps-gmbh.com
Abstract
Global climate change leads to rising pressure to adapt at a local level, especially in mountainous and
coastal regions. Simultaneously to mitigation efforts, adaptation measures have to be taken in order
to deal with the unavoidable climate change impacts. The IPCC 5th Assessment Report prioritises
participatory approaches for knowledge sharing and capacity-development in order to take early,
planned adaptation actions instead of paying the price of inaction in the future. According to the
Hyogo Framework for Action, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction cannot be dealt
with in isolation; therefore it is vital to adopt an integrated multi-concept approach.Today's teenagers
will not only be tomorrow's decision makers in business, politics and science, their generation will
also have to tackle climate change impacts more intensively. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to
involve them in current efforts on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.However,
there are hardly any specific target-group oriented and field-tested approaches to promote adaptation
awareness and capacity-development among teenagers. This gap is being addressed by the alpS
communication approach. In various transdisciplinary research-education cooperations, more than
2000 students of different primary and secondary schools in Austria are involved. They encounter
numerous researchers and practitioners from alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (Austria)
and its international partner network in research and practice on climate change adaptation and
disaster risk reduction. Thematically embedded within the existing school curricula, however
designed with experiential learning activities, the approach features motivational elements for the
participating students as well as "down-to-earth applicability" for the responsible teachers and school
headmasters.The workshops, designed on the theory of Moderate Constructivism and thematically
embedded within the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, create an appropriate
environment for exchange between students and experts at eye level. Unlike most monodirectional
knowledge-sharing activities, the alpS approach ensures a bidirectional exchange. While students
express their attitudes and expectations, the researchers and practitioners share their experiences and
competences. These target-group specific communication and education methods are being
developed, applied and tested. The students' changes in terms of topic-related knowledge, attitude
and behaviour as well as their function as inter- and intra-generational multipliers in their social
environment are being scientifically evaluated within this approach.In this talk, field-tested formats
for innovative science-business-education interactions as well as novel insights for knowledge
sharing and effective communication of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction will be
presented.

12-16 May 2014
THE MEDIA AND THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMMON SENSE ON CLIMATE

CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION - RELEASE OF THE IPCC ASSESSMENT
REPORT IN THE NEWSPAPER O ESTADO DE S. PAULO
Ana Paula Soares Veiga (1,2) *

Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil (1)
Rede CLIMA, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil (2)
contact: anapvsoares@gmail.com
Abstract
Since 2007, when the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) stated that Global warming is unequivocal
and attributed the phenomenon to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions (IPCC, 2007), research
on the causes of climate change and its impacts on life on Earth have attracted increasing public
interest.Given the demand from readers, the press has kept up with the theme, strongly contributing
to the construction of a common sense and the public perception of climate change, through features
and mechanisms that led to what Vargas (2009) called ‘historioprodução' - "a metallic memory
(Orlandi, 2004) that manages senses, subjects, policies - life."This built common sense, that climate
change is really happening and affects people's daily lives, is regarded by editors as os the readers'
interest and therefore deserves attention. However, as stated Kunczik (cited by Smith, 2005), it is
worrying that society perception of reality is prescribed by the criteria of a single occupational
group: journalists.This group makes the clippings as they consider appropriated, imbued with the
"power" conferred by a ‘contract' between the newspaper and its readers (Veron, 1985), and
regulated by the market laws (competition) (Maia, 2002). The social and cultural production
conditions of journalistic texts actually interfere on content production and the public perception of
what is reported.This first part of the AR5 confirms and deepens disclosures in 2007. During this
period of six and half years, due the announced irreversibility of the impacts of global warming,
science has directed studies on adaptation and mitigation of the effects of climate change. Nowadays,
media and readers know the world will not end, but will undergo deep transformations. And so, the
way to say the same thing, to convey the same information, was toned down from 2007 to 2013.This
article proposes to undertake an exercise in discourse analysis on the news about IPCC Assessment
Report published in the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo (printed version) on two occasions -
February 3, 2007 (AR4 disclosure) and September 28, 2013 (AR5).To succeed in seeing the
existence of layers and filters that make up the journalistic texts is to qualify for a less naive and
more critical reading, making the reader an active and operative player in the construction of
meaning.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE, RISK PERCEPTION AND INACTION IN THE BRAZILIAN

SEMIARID REGION
Flavio Eiro (2,3); Diego Lindoso (1,3) *

Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (CDS-UnB), Brasília, Brazil (1)
Centre Maurice Halbwachs (EHESS-ENS-CNRS), Paris, France (2)
Sub-network Regional Development and Climate Change (Rede CLIMA), Brasília, Brazil (3)
contact: flavioeiro@gmail.com
Abstract
Perception, vulnerability and adaptation compose the conceptual tripod of recent studies on the social
impact of climate change. Given their interdependence, and relative deficiency of the studies of the
first of these terms, this work focuses on the social construction of risk associated with climate
change in rural family producers of the Brazilian Semiarid region, based on the theory of "risk
society" proposed by Ulrich Beck.The research is based upon fieldwork conducted by the authors in
four municipalities of the Sertão do São Francisco territory in Bahia. The population of the study is
the category family farmers, and the unit of analysis chosen is the family establishment. Seeking
greater external validity of the results, a survey was conducted, and the sampling process was
divided into the following steps: calculation for the sample size, which totalized 249 questionnaires;
sample split proportionally by municipality; selection of communities prioritizing diversity of
farming types; random choice of establishments.The results show that farmers perceive both climate
variability and changes in its dynamics: reduced rainfall, increased frequency of dry years and
changes in the predictability of the warm and cold months. Climate change is viewed as a risk by the
population surveyed: people are minimally informed about it and are worried. In addition, the main
result achieved is regarding the homogeneity of risk perception across different social categories. No
relevant relationship was found in crossing tests involving social-demographic variables and
perception and adaptation actions. This fact is attributed to the imperceptible nature of modern risks,
and the role of mass media in the construction of risk perception. The perception of risk is associated
with the intensification of already known phenomena, limiting adaptation actions in the agricultural
systems. Not being seen as a process of wider scope, and possibly irreversible, no widely spread
adaptation actions were found, which would be motivated by a new climate condition, as described
by the interviewees.

12-16 May 2014
SEMIARID BOOKLET: COMMUNICATING CLIMATE RISKS AND ADAPTATION

MEASURES
Melissa Curi (1) *; Gabriela Litre (1); Stéphanie Nasuti (1); Saulo Pereira Filho (1); Marcel Bursztyn
(1); Ana Paula Veiga (2); Suely Chacon (3)
UnB, Brasília, DF, Brazil (1)
Unicamp, Campinas, SP, Brazil (2)
UFC-Cariri, Juazeiro do Norte, CE, Brazil (3)
contact: melissacuri@hotmail.com
Abstract
The research objective is to present an analysis of the effectiveness of the use of the educative
booklet as a tool for communication on climate risks and the measures of adaptation. Considering the
research conducted by subnet Regional Development and Climate Change (Climate Network),
between 2011 and 2013, to raise the awareness of family farmers about climate change from four
areas of the brazilian semiarid: Seridó Potiguar -RN, Gilbués-PI, Juazeiro-BA and Chapada do
Araripe-CE, we opted for the use of the booklet due to its potential for transmitting information in a
creative way and adapted to local conditions and needs of the target audience.From a bottom-up
process, which favors local traditional knowledge, the analyzes considered the regional
characteristics, religious beliefs and expectations of the farmers interviewed. In addition to the
perceptions of climate, were addressed, also from the experiences of the farmers, the adaptation
mechanisms that are being used in the region.With the use of comics, through short and adapted to
the local language dialogues, information is being passed in a simple and illustrative way.
Recognizing the special relationship of the audience to the land and to the phenomena of nature, the
narrative demonstrates the reality of family farmers who are having to adapt to a change of climate,
which transcends dry characteristics of the region. The use of verbal and non-verbal language
facilitates the dissemination of scientific explanations related to local climate variations.Although the
booklet is being evaluated as an effective tool for communication, it is necessary to recognize that
presents limitations and challenges. Among these, it is worth mentioning the intrinsic difficulty of
the product (a printed reading material). Even with many illustrations, the booklet brings written
texts, which may impair the use by the illiterate. It is also interesting to note that the lack of quality
educational material on climate change, poses a challenge to find a language that reach diverse
audiences, and also to create an accessible and entertaining speech, but that does not result in
reproduction of stereotypes, crystallizing more the memory (ideology) that has already been
constructed by the media.keywords: educative booklet; family farmers; climate change; Brazilian
semiarid.

12-16 May 2014
LIFE AND TIME PROLIFERATION - CLIMATE CHANGE COMMUNICATION

PROJECT AND OUTREACH ACTIVITIES
Taina De Luccas (1) *; Michele Gonçalves (1); Carolina Cantarino (1); Susana Dias (1)
University of Campinas, Campinas. SP., Brazil (1)
contact: tainadeluccas@gmail.com
Abstract
Considering the wide relevance of climate change questions and the extensive dissemination of those
issues nowadays on media, we started a research project at University of Campinas (Brazil)
composed by multi and interdisciplinary group that focus on the studies of climate change
communication and dissemination on society and those interrelations between public, culture and
humanities. In our researches we found an excess of information about climate change that usually
appears on mainstream media, but we consider to think about the quality of these materials, trying to
discuss some problems that frequently appear, like the reduction of the complexity of issues and
repetition of models of approaches.In this abstract proposal, we describe one of our research
activities that integrate a project called “Life and time proliferation: experimenting climate change
images” that is focused on our studies on images of climate change that often appear on magazines,
newspapers and websites. After an extensive research and analyses of these materials, we observed
several image patterns and repetitions of representational politics that invest not only to show scenes
of a particular event, but also to engender fear, guilty, and astonishment - images that are stuck in
clichés and pre-determinate means. We problematized these kinds of images repetitions considering
an enlarged approach of images as sensational blocks as suggested Deleuze and Guattari (2004). We
aim to study possibilities of generating knowledge from sensory experiences in order to enfold
climate change subjects through different approach. In this sense, we developed productions that
seek to provoke distinct experiences with climate change images; we created videos, photos, itinerant
art installation, and workshops to promote interactions and debates with the public about significant
questions regarding climate change. We believe in interactions of art, communication and science as
a powerful possibility to disseminate new scientific findings and other forms of knowledge. We seek
to improve our studies as a significant effort to contribute for the dissemination of knowledge and
promote debates in society about climate change issues, like adaptation, mitigation and public
decisions. Our studies integrates the activities of the sub-group Communication and Society from
Rede CLIMA, and the Project “Generation of Alcohol Production Scenarios to Support for the
Formulation of Public Policies Applied to the Adaptation of the National Sugar and Alcohol Industry
to

12-16 May 2014
ANALYSIS OF CASSAVA FARMER HOUSEHOLDS VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE

CHANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN NIGERIA.
Olaniran Thompson (1) *; Victoria Olayinka (1)

The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria (1)
contact: tonyfav22@gmail.com
Abstract
Since cassava revolution programme of the Nigerian government in 2001, about 46.7% of Nigerian
farmers are cassava farmers whose livelihood depend on cassava production. However, most of them
are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, since weather and extreme events have become more
unpredictable. In view of the above, this study analysis the vulnerability of cassava farmer
households to effects of climate change in two states (i.e. Oyo and Osun state) in western Nigeria. A
multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 300 cassava farmer households in the study area.
This analysis was premised on carefully selected Vulnerability Indices Indicators (VII) and adaptive
capacity. These indicators were weighted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Data-driven
approaches was used in the selection of VII. Vulnerability in this study is taken to be a function of
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Also, this study considered historical changes in climate
variables and occurrence of extreme climatic events are taken as indicators of exposure. Again, the
effects of climate related disasters such as floods on the livelihood of the cassava farmer households
were considered as the sensitivity indicator. While adaptive capacity of a cassava farmer household
is taken to be possession of the five types of livelihood assets ( i.e. human, natural, financial,
physical, and social). PCA was run for the selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity separately using Data Analysis and Statistical Software (STATA10) to assign the weights.
The result revealed through the absolute value of the weights, that temperature and rainfall trends
contribute much more to the exposure index compared to humidity and past experience of floods in
the last five years. Also, indicators of sensitivity showed that higher share of agricultural resource
based income makes the household more sensitive to climate change and extremes. The study further
revealed that human assets such as qualification and training received higher weights, while
dependency ratio decreases the adaptive capacity as shown by the negative sign of the weight. It is
therefore, recommended that government at all levels (i.e. National, State and Local) should
endeavour to formulate policies that will improve the adaptive capacity of the cassava farmer
households to climate change effects in the study area.Keywords: Nigeria, cassava farmer
households, adaptive capacity, Principal ComponentAnalysis (PCA), government

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSING LOCAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY- A FRAMEWORK FOR IMPACT

EVALUATION STUDIES
Stefano Moncada (1) *

Abstract
This paper conducts an impact evaluation study to assess the effects of small-scale development
interventions on local adaptive capacity, using a biogas and sanitation project in an informal urban
settlement in Ethiopia as a case study.Whilst much of the research in the field has used aggregate
indices over large areas the proposed framework, drawing both from economics and environmental
science, uses a mixed methodology to be applied at community-level, including qualitative
Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) methods (using the adaptation tool CRiSTAL), together with
quantitative assessment of the effect of intervention with quasi-experimental matching techniques
(using three waves of panel data generated from a dedicated survey conducted on 200 households).
The use of mixed methodologies in impact evaluation studies has received increased attention from
the academic community only in recent years, and within this context relatively few cases have
managed to optimally integrate qualitative and quantitative tools in a functional and replicable
methodological framework.The findings of this research point towards a greater integration of mixed
methodologies, particularly in the realm of small-scale interventions in the field of climate change
and development. In-depth information from PRAs was found to be critical to add context-specific
values to the findings, as well as to guide quantitative analysis, thus also reducing undesirable
selection biases. Further findings suggest that the proposed framework also allows for a prompt
revision of on-going project activities, hence correcting potential unexpected and unwanted
outcomes. This research advances current knowledge on the application of mixed methodologies
capable to improve impact evaluation assessments in the field of development and climate change
adaptation

12-16 May 2014
METHODOLOGICAL CHOICES IN PROBLEM-ORIENTED ADAPTATION RESEARCH
Jochen Hinkel (1) *; Alexander Bisaro (1)

Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany (1)
contact: hinkel@globalclimateforum.org
Abstract
While methodological choices are critical for problem-oriented adaptation research, the current
debate on these is underdeveloped and characterised by simple dichotomies like bottom-up and top-
down as well as vaguely defined concepts such as vulnerability. Adaptation challenges and
approaches for addressing them are more diverse than these labels suggest. This paper addresses this
deficit by developing a diagnostic framework that helps to identify approaches suitable for
addressing a given adaptation challenge. The framework was developed out of the necessity to
discuss diverse approaches from natural science, social science and practice in a set of adaptation
case studies conducted with the European funded MEDIATION project. Based on these case studies
complemented by the literature, we iteratively abstracted typical adaptation challenges researched,
typical approaches taken, and empirical and theoretical criteria applied for choosing a particular
approach. Our results refine the methodological debate by distinguishing between the three research
questions of exploring risks, identifying measures and appraising options. Adaptation challenges are
classified according to private and public interest involved, individual or various types of collective
action involved, data/model availability, decision making time horizon, etc. For each type of
challenge and approach we give examples and discuss salient issues. Our results point to the
opportunity to apply institutional and behavior research to support the identification of measures and
possibly avoiding barriers in practice. The diagnostic framework also serves as the basis for the
forthcoming guidance for assessing vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to be published by the
UNEP Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
(PROVIA).

12-16 May 2014
FRAMEWORKS, TOOLS AND APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION M&E:

THE STATE OF PLAY AND FUTURE CHALLENGES
PATRICK PRINGLE (1) *; ROGER STREET (1); DENNIS BOURS (2)

UKCIP, OXFORD, UK (1)
SEA-Change, Phnom Penh, Cambodia (2)
contact: patrick.pringle@ukcip.org.uk
Abstract
Climate change adaptation is characterised by a growing, and rapidly evolving, range of policies,
programmes and projects delivered by various agencies at a range of spatial scales. Yet the evidence
base informing climate change adaptation is still fragmentary and nascent. Monitoring and
evaluation processes can potentially play a key role in developing this evidence base, enhancing our
understanding of the characteristics of successful adaptation while providing better accountability for
the use of adaptation funding. As the importance of M&E is being recognised in the context of
climate change adaptation, a growing body of practical literature, including frameworks, approaches
and tools, has been developed which seek to respond to the distinct challenges which adaptation
presents. These resources have been developed for use across a variety of spatial scales and range
from theoretical discussions of adaptation M&E to practical toolkits and step-based approaches.
While many of these resources are valuable additions to our understanding of M&E process and
practice, until recently there has been little or no analysis of their relevance and application.Building
upon a recent synthesis report by SEA-Change and UKCIP, the authors will set out the current state
of play regarding adaptation M&E frameworks, tools and approaches, identify key strengths and
gaps. They examine how the conceptual framing of the adaptation M&E challenge has evolved over
time and assess the degree to which the current range of resources meet the very practical needs of
those who commission, undertake and participate in M&E. They then reflect on future priorities for
adaptation M&E, including the need to harness M&E not just for accountability to donors, but to
generate new knowledge and evidence that is shared beyond a narrow community of specialists. In
doing so, they illustrate how complex and overlapping donor reporting mechanisms can often fail to
foster learning or build capacity to make more effective adaptation decisions. Finally, the need to
establish arenas in which the lessons emerging from adaptation M&E can be exchanged, challenged
and tested is identified.

12-16 May 2014
MITIGATION-ADAPTATION NEXUS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR
Ferenc Toth (1) *

Abstract
Among the many issues of sustainable development, the world society will face the double challenge
to increase energy supply to support development of an increasing global population and to mitigate
GHG emissions. Implementation of the Copenhagen Accord of the UNFCCC requires following the
IPCC RCP2.6 mitigation pathway for all GHGs included in the Kyoto Protocol and particularly for
energy and industry related CO2 emissions. This implies an enormous mitigation challenge: total
GHG emissions will need to start decreasing at a fast rate in less than a decade while energy and
industry related CO2 emissions will need to become negative beyond 2070. The latter will require a
fast decarbonization of the energy system by adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to a large
fraction of fossil fuel and bioenergy use, and drastically increasing the contribution of nuclear energy
and other low-carbon sources to the global energy mix. During this timeframe the energy sector will
be increasingly affected by gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and other climatic attributes
as well as by changes in the characteristics of extreme weather events.This poses a complex decision
problem for all stakeholders in the energy sector. Decarbonizing the energy sector means that there
will be an increasing need for the deployment of low-carbon technologies while the technical and
economic performance will be affected by unfolding climate change. While there are no direct trade-
offs between mitigation and adaptation (i.e., climate change preventing the use of low-carbon
technologies), the impacts on the availability and properties of other resources (especially water and
land) create linkages that need to be addressed in an integrated mitigation-adaptation decision
framework.This presentation will discuss selected cases of the adaptation-mitigation linkages in the
energy sector, such as the impacts of climate change on water resources and supply versus the need
for increasing deployment of low-carbon technologies that are large water users and the trade-offs in
land use for low-carbon energy supply versus food and fibre production, forests and natural
ecosystems.

12-16 May 2014
COOLING: DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTION OF BEST PRACTICE IN FRANCE, AN

EXAMPLE OF AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

Abstract
The issue of cooling is directly at the interface between adaptation and mitigation. In France, the
demand for cooling using energy-consuming technologies is rapidly increasing and the process of
maladaptation already underway.ADEME, the French Agency for the Environment and Energy
Management has put a special focus on cooling practices as part of its strategy on climate change
adaptation.At the research level the agency funds a number of technological developments for
applications in buildings and the transport sector and launched, in 2012, a call for proposals to
improve the evaluation of urban cooling techniques. To help French local authorities identify best
practices, ten cases have been identified and analysed in the areas of urban planning, buildings and
transport. The cases identified contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation whilst also
reducing the other environmental impacts (air pollution and noise).The method developed to choose
and analyse the case studies will be presented and a selection of best practice case studies detailed.

12-16 May 2014
LOW CARBON RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEAST DEVELOPED

COUNTRIES: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION AND
MITIGATION
Susannah Fisher (1); Simon Anderson (1)*

International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK (1)
contact: susannah.fisher@iied.org
Abstract
This paper addresses the question of how and why some LDC countries are moving towards low
carbon resilient development policies and integrating adaptation and mitigation agendas through
national planning frameworks. Drawing on detailed empirical case studies in Rwanda, Ethiopia and
Bangladesh conducted through interviews, documentary analysis and social network analysis, the
paper analyses the political economy of bringing together these agendas within national planning
including the organisations and individuals involved in developing these policies, their priorities for
a low carbon resilient development agenda, and potential tensions and contradictions between the
low carbon agenda and the development objectives of the LDCs. The paper compares the
institutional frameworks for bringing together adaptation and mitigation in Rwanda, Ethiopia and
Bangladesh and the policy discourses surrounding the concept and their move towards
implementation. The paper argues that there are multiple pathways to bringing together adaptation
and mitigation through institutions, financial instruments and incentives but it is important to be
attentive to the national and international political economy of these processes as they unfold. A
political economy analysis of climate change planning is an important component to understanding
how adaptation and mitigation might be integrated at different scales.

12-16 May 2014
THE PARTICIPATIVE CONSTRUCTION OF FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTATION PLAN TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MAIPO RIVER BASIN IN CHILE
Cristián Henríquez (1,2); Sebastián Vicuña (1); Tomás Usón (2) *

Centro de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Santiago, Chile (1)
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Santiago, Chile (2)
CONICIT/FONDAP 15112, Santiago, Chile (3)
CONICIT/FONDAP 151117, Santiago, Chile (4)
contact: tjuson@uc.cl
Abstract
Over the last years, debates about future sustainability of access and quality of water have been
strongly discussed, due to a series of uncertain factors that affect both supply and demand of water in
the future. Climate change, technological and socio-demographic development are some of these
factors that many regions of the world are facing nowadays when projecting water sustainability in
the future. This is of particular concern for areas like the Santiago Metropolitan Region (SMR) in
Chile, which has an increasing population of more than seven million inhabitants and high water
consumption from agriculture, industrial and mining activities.In this context emerges the "MAPA:
Maipo Plan de Adaptación" Project (2012-2015) as an initiative led by the Pontificia Universidad
Católica de Chile and financed by the International Development Research Center (IDRC), as a
response to the necessity of defining an integrated climate variability and climate change adaptation
framework for the Maipo river basin, SMR's main hydrological system. The main objective of this
framework is to develop an adaptation process including the required set of tools and critical pieces
of information to identify challenges, vulnerabilities and adaptation alternatives for different type of
water users in the basin.Among its specific goals, the project seeks to construct future scenarios for
the region, which include on one hand the development of climate scenarios and on the other the
study of the most relevant and uncertain driving factors related to future use of territory (and
consequent implications in terms of water demand) of the urban, agriculture and natural ecosystem
regions. In order to attain this, a considerable number of stakeholders have been invited to take part
of the Scenario Building Team (GCE by its initials in Spanish), re* public, private and civil society
institutions.This presentation aims to show the process behind the construction of future scenarios for
the Maipo river basin, focusing on the theoretical framework and methodology. In this regards we
first discus the Robust Decision Making framework, which incorporates both experts and
computational models in a mutual feedback process. Then, participative methodologies and tools
used are presented, which allow analyzing the development of the main driving factors for the Maipo
river basin. Finally, it is discussed how those drivers are integrated within an integrated water
resources platform (WEAP model), leading to the creation of future scenarios used for the
development of a robust climate variability and climate change adaptation framework.

12-16 May 2014
POPULATIONS VULNERABLE TO EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS ACCORDING TO

SANITARY AND SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS
Tatiane Sousa (1) *; Christovam Barcellos (1)

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation/FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil (1)
contact: taticmsousa@gmail.com
Abstract
Introduction: Between May and October 2013 there was a diarrhea epidemic in the Northeast,
specifically in Pernambuco and Alagoas. According to available data, over 100,000 people showed
symptoms of Acute Diarrheal Disease (ADD) in over 80 cities in Pernambuco and 25 cities in
Alagoas, most of which are located in the semi-arid region. This region is characterized by a long
history of infrastructure needs and long periods of draught. The combination of these factors allows
for the identification of populations in different levels of vulnerability under extreme climate event
conditions such as this year’s draught, the longest in the last 60 years. From the identification of
these vulnerabilities, it is possible to establish priorities in the political agenda so as to direct
resources and information to the populations most in need.Objective: To identify in the Northeast
populations that are most vulnerable to extreme climate events from sanitary structure and
socioeconomic indicators.Methodology: Data from 3 groups of indicators was collected, namely: i.
sanitary structure (water and sewage network coverage); ii. health conditions (child mortality rate -
CMR, life expectancy, and hospital admissions for ADD), and iii. socioeconomic indicators
(education and income). Three maps were generated from these indicators, one for each group. Later,
a synthesis map was developed with results from the previous maps.Results and Discussion:
Generated maps allowed for identification of regions and cities that show the worst indicators,
signaling populations that are vulnerable to episodes such as the 2013 draught. According to results,
populations from the countryside, such as the semi-arid region show the worst sanitary conditions in
association with the worst socioeconomic conditions resulting in the highest CMR and the lowest life
expectancy.Conclusion: Indicators demonstrate that the combined effect of draught in large areas and
local structural vulnerabilities resulted in a diarrhea epidemic.

12-16 May 2014
ASSESSMENT ON VULNERABILITY OF FOOD AND WATER SECTOR IN SOME

COASTAL AREAS OF BANGLADESH
Hasan Mohammed Asiful Hoque (1) *; Biswajit Biswas (1); S.M. Atiqul Islam (1); Md. Showkat
Osman (1)
Bangladesh (1)
contact: neelvalley@gmail.com
Abstract
It is well recognized that Bangladesh would be one of the most adversely affected country to climate
change impacts. The possibility of changes in climate and sea-level rise must be considered seriously
in the context of the future development of Bangladesh. The current issues of climate change and its
impacts are creating new challenges in assuring food security and access to safe drinking water. The
study opts to make an assessment on vulnerability of food and water as well as some other sectors on
some coastal areas of Bangladesh which are frequently affected by disasters like cyclones and storm
surges. In this study, information of damages and losses induced by some recent disasters has been
gathered through local people’s participation using semi structured interviews, questionnaire survey
and participatory GIS technique. The study identified significant vulnerability in food and water
sectors of coastal areas of Bangladesh which will be intensified further due to frequent climate
induced disasters in coming years and how people may cop with the changed environment.
Appropriate actions leading to adaptation should be taken immediately so that the affected people
could make an attempt to ensure their survival.

12-16 May 2014
CLIMATE INDUCED MIGRATION IN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF BANGLADESH:

ADAPTATION CHOICE OR REALITY EXISTS?
Mehdi Azam (1) *

Department of Sociology, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia (1)
contact: mehdi.azam@mq.edu.au
Abstract
This study explores and analyzes internal and external factors influencing environmental and socio-
economic change to drive migration and displacement in the coastal Bangladesh. Local people have
been interviewed in-depth during June to August, 2011 to explore the context and how they perceive
it from their actual experiences. The study finds that the agricultural transformation has caused
ecological disaster in the area due to salinity intrusion and shrimp farming leading to significant
environmental transformation and threats to local resilience. Reduction of household resilience has
shifted away vulnerable people to move outside territory ranging from one week to a maximum of
six months. The study also finds that seasonal migration is a common trend for a long time for some
people even though they have adequate food and livelihood security, but they migrate to strengthen
household capital and savings as alternative adaptation choice when regular employment is not
available. However, permanent migrations are negligible, mainly for economic reasons and other
pull factors. People have little understanding of whether such environmental changes are linked to
climate change or not but they emphasize man-made interventions and natural disasters. Although
there is serious ongoing debate about climate induced migration or climate refuges from coastal
Bangladesh, the study did not find any significant relationship between climate change and
migration. People are shifted away from their land by shrimp farming industries and lose their base
for self-sustaining agriculture that existed before 1980. Climate change is a fact but in the present
case of migration it only exacerbates an already existing problem. This influences people to migrate
to increase their household resilience/capital from outside and can be considered to be an alternative
coping/livelihood strategy if other local options fail. The study suggests an integrated
transformational mechanism that brings people back to the self-sustaining agriculture systems and
further development of sustainable shrimp farming.

12-16 May 2014
HOW TO TRACK CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
James Ford (1) *; Lea Berrang Ford (1)

McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada (1)
contact: james.ford@mcgill.ca
Abstract
The need to track adaptation progress is increasingly being recognized but our ability to do so is
constrained by the complex nature of adaptation, and absence of measurable outcomes or indicators
from which to judge if and how adaptation is occurring. In this presentation we propose a typology
of approaches by which adaptation can be tracked at a national-level globally. On the one hand,
outcome-based approaches directly measure adaptation progress and effectiveness with reference to
avoided climate change impacts. Given that full exposure to climate change impacts will not happen
for decades however, alternative approaches focus on developing indicators or proxies by which
adaptation can be monitored. These include systematic measures of adaptation readiness, processes
undertaken to advance adaptation, policies and programs implemented to adapt, and measures of the
impact of these policies and programs on changing vulnerability. While these approaches employ
various methods, data sources, and identify different components of adaptation progress to track at a
national-level, they all seek to characterize the current status of adaptation from which progress over
time can be monitored. Examples from our own work on measuring adaptation progress, and the
emerging literature in this area, will be used to illustrate the various approaches.

12-16 May 2014
OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE FOR ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: THE EFFECT

OF TRAINING IN SMALL-SCALE DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS
Stefano Moncada (1) *; Hilary Bambrick (2); Marie Briguglio (3)

Center for Health Research / School of Medicine - University of Western Sydney, Sydney, Australia (2)
Economics Department - University of Malta, Msida, Malta (3)
Abstract
This paper measures the impact of community-level Official Development Assistance (ODA) on
adaptive capacity. The context is an informal urban settlement in Ethiopia, characterised by extreme
poverty, poor sanitation and high climate-sensitive risks, where a bio-gas sanitation project, funded
by ODA, recently took place. The development intervention also included environmental and
sanitation training, provided to some of the 200 beneficiaries of the project. The research employs
quasi-experimental matching techniques (using three waves of panel data generated from a dedicated
survey conducted on 200 households) to identify the impact of development assistance on adaptive
capacity.The study finds that the bio-gas and sanitation development intervention had positive effects
on key determinants of coping strategies, such as health indicators, affecting basic livelihoods and
long-term adaptive capacity, but that these effects were greatly enhanced among participants who
had received training. This research advances theory on adaptive capacity in the field of development
and climate change adaptation and extends its application on the identification of optimal tools to
measure progress at community level.

12-16 May 2014
INDICATORS FOR PLANNING AND MONITORING THE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO

CLIMATE CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA
Carlos Brenes (1) *; Miguel Cifuentes (2); Claudia Medellín (2)

EUROCLIMA Programme, Brussels, Belgium (1)
CATIE, Turrialba, Costa Rica (2)
CATIE, Turrialba, Costa Rica (3)
contact: cbrenes@racsa.co.cr
Abstract
As a result of the EUROCLIMA Programme on Climate Change, a joint effort of 18 Latin American
countries and the European Union, a tool will be presented that allows assessment of the national
adaptive capacity to climate change, in accordance with spatial scales that go from national to local
levels. The tool is based on key management and impact indicators for adaptation to climate change
measures, which will facilitate the design and especially the monitoring of National Adaptation
Plans.The indicators are related to the political spheres, strategic management and the actions that are
taken in specific programmes and projects. Indicators are classified in several areas in accordance to
their relationship with the actors involved and their adaptive management capacity: political
capacity, capcity for knowledge or information management, ecosystemic capacity, social and
financial/economic capacity.161 projects distributed over 18 nations were reviewed for the
identification of relevant adaptation indicators. The resulting tool has been validated with focal
groups from different Latin American government agencies and the results enriched the development
of the tool, that is available on the EUROCLIMA website (http://euroclima.org/en/) since the
beginning of 2014.

12-16 May 2014
HOW MUCH ARE WE ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
Caroline Larrivée (1) *; Alain Bourque (1)

Ouranos, Montréal, Québec, Canada (1)
contact: larrivee.caroline@ouranos.ca
Abstract
Most of the challenges concerning the measure of progress in adaptation to climate change are
beginning to be well documented. An evolving climate makes it difficult to establish the baseline or
reference situation against which to measure the effect of the adaptation action; trying to mainstream
adaptation to ensure greater uptake makes it very difficult to monitor the actions and attribute change
to these actions. These and many other aspects make the measure of progress of adaptation very
challenging. Yet measuring progress is critical not only to justify important investments but mostly
to ensure the actions being implemented are the right ones to help achieve adaptation objectives.
Measuring progress can also help to avoid maladaptation and support the implementation of adaptive
management.In Canada, there are still very few examples of actions being systematically monitored
and measured in terms of the adaptation efforts put forward. While there is a clear need for both
process and result indicators given the nature of adaptation, it is less clear how, when and in what
way to develop these within the adaptation process. Through the use of analogue case studies in the
health and energy sectors where monitoring and evaluation has a longer history, we identify key
elements to consider when trying to measure progress in evolving contexts as well as examples of
indicators that can be used at different phases of the adaptation process to measure success. Within
this framework, the presentation will provide examples of which climate change related issues in
Québec seem to have progressed more quickly than others and provide some insights as to why this
could be based on findings from the case studies.

12-16 May 2014
PUTTING THE ‘L’ IN M&E: HOW CAN WE PLACE LEARNING AT THE HEART OF
MONITORING AND EVALUATION FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION?
PATRICK PRINGLE (1) *; ROGER STREET (1)

UKCIP (UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD), OXFORD, UK (1)
contact: patrick.pringle@ukcip.org.uk
Abstract
As more adaptation projects and programmes are initiated, so there is a greater the imperative to
identify, measure and understand the benefits and impacts accrued. In addition to making the case for
future adaptation investments, such information can help us to better understand how vulnerability
can be most effectively reduced and resilience enhanced, and what the characteristics of a well-
adapting society might be. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems can provide “critical support
to the long-term process of learning ‘what works’ in adaptation” (Spearman and McGray, 2011),
moving beyond simply measuring the benefits of adaptation to encourage a deeper exploration of
who benefits from adaptation (or not), where, how and why. Recent literature (e.g. Bours et al.
2013), and events such as a recent UNFCCC Adaptation Committee workshop on adaptation M&E,
have highlighted the importance of learning as a key function of M&E. However, to date, there has
been relatively little discussion on how to embed learning within M&E processes. This paper will
highlight why learning needs to be a central objective of M&E and how a process of learning,
reflection and improvement could be better incorporated into M&E processes at a variety of spatial
scales. The authors consider the potential tensions between learning and other M&E objectives
before drawing upon practical examples from developing countries. These case studies illustrate that
M&E can simultaneously serve various purposes, including short-term project improvements and
longer-term learning and show that by placing learning at the heart of M&E it is possible to develop
a more nuanced understanding of the benefits of adaptation. Such an approach can strengthen
individual adaptation interventions but also informs wider communities of practice.

12-16 May 2014
RESPONSES TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN

THE BRAZILIAN SEMIARID REGION
Diego Lindoso (1,2) *; Gabriela Litre (1,2); Flavio Eiró (3); Juliana Rocha (1,2); Saulo Rodrigues-
Filho (1,2)
Center for Sustainable Development - University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil (1)
Center Maurice Halbwachs (CNRS-ENS-EHESS), Brasilia, Brazil (3)
Abstract
One of the main challenges of climate change research is to operationalize interdisciplinary and
abstract concepts into empirical realities. The present research uses an original analytical approach to
identify a set of strategies employed by rural producers in the Brazilian Semiarid
region.MethodologyA total of 288 family farmers were surveyed, distributed in four municipalities
of the Brazilian state of Bahia and in one municipality from the Brazilian state of Ceara, all located
in the Northeastern Semiarid region of the country. Fieldwork also included 81 qualitative interviews
as well as field observation. A total of 64 adaptive measures employed by family farmers were
identified. Each adaptive measure was classified according to different categories: exposition,
vulnerability context, timing, adaption nature, adaptation mechanism, and adaptation’s goal.
Adaptation strategies were also classified according to the intervention scale Different typologies of
adaptation were proposed for each category.Results Most of the identified adaptive sets of strategies
employed by family farmers were related to extreme drought events (55%). Those strategies were
employed mainly during the extreme weather event itself and as a reaction to the event’s impact
(56%). Most of the identified adaptation strategies intended to prevent or to manage hydric stress
(36%) or food stress (36%). The import of external resources (hydric, financial, and food resources),
dislocation of human beings or of productive systems (i.e. human migration) and resource stocks (i.e.
ponds) were the main adaptive mechanisms implemented by farmers (19%, 14%, 9%, respectively).
Regarding nature, most of the chosen adaptive options included resource management (27%) or were
of technical and technological nature (16%). Finally, regarding the adaptation goal, most of the
adaptations intended to manage impacts (36%), to improve adaptive capacity (19%) and to reduce
risk (19%).ConclusionThe adaptive range of strategies described by family farmers in the Brazilian
Semiarid region is essentially reactive and of low autonomy. The identified adaptation strategies
depend on the arrival of external resources to be able to moderate vulnerabilities. This diagnosis,
issued from the analytic framework proposed here, is highly relevant to the formulation of climate
change adaptive policies.

12-16 May 2014
THINK GLOBALLY, ACT LOCALLY, MEASURE NATIONALLY? THE USE OF

EXISTING NATIONAL INDICATOR SYSTEMS TO MEASURE ADAPTATION
EFFECTIVENESS
Samantha Boardley (1) *

ESSA Technologies Ltd., Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (1)
contact: sboardley@essa.com
Abstract
Measuring progress, tracking and assessing adaptation success and effectiveness has become
increasingly central to the adaptation dialogue. In recent years, there has been a surge of new
literature, analysis, frameworks, tools, and guidelines in this area. Spurred by the increase in climate
finance and subsequent adaptation programming, planners, practitioners and decision-makers alike
are turning their attention from questions of how do we adapt, to questions of "is it working?".To
help respond to the latter question, a number of countries, donors and global funds have developed
aggregated indicator-based monitoring and evaluation systems to help track adaptation. However,
throughout the literature, it is generally well accepted that successful adaptation is highly context-
specific and must respond to local hazards, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity. As such parameters
can vary significantly across a country, local-level adaptation effectiveness or outcomes cannot be
aggregated upwards. As a result, national adaptation monitoring and evaluation systems are often
limited to the use of process indicators that help track adaptation readiness, activities, policies, and
implementation progress. This spatial disconnect between local place-based adaptation and national
measurement lends itself to questions of how do we effectively track adaptation outcomes at the
national-level.This paper explores the spatial disconnect between local and national adaptation
outcomes. We highlight the challenges of measuring adaptation outcomes at the national-level. With
the help of a case study example, we propose that national adaptation effectiveness can be measured
using existing national monitoring and evaluation systems and indicators. Using multivariate and
mixed method approaches presented here, we investigate how conventional national datasets and
indicator systems can isolate for the contribution of adaptation measures at the local-level to national
adaptation outcomes.

12-16 May 2014
GIZ'S EXPERIENCE WITH DEVELOPING NATIONAL ADAPTATION M&E SYSTEMS
Timo Leiter (1) *

GIZ, Eschborn, Germany (1)
contact: timo.leiter@giz.de
Abstract
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of adaptation is increasingly being recognized as important topic
by national governments and donors alike. In the context of increasing volumes of international
climate finance it is important to demonstrate that results are being achieved, i.e. that countries,
sectors or population groups are actually better adapted and therefore less vulnerable to climate
variability and to the expected impacts from climate change. To ensure the effectiveness of
adaptation interventions it is also important to learn which adaptation activities work well in a given
context and to make this knowledge available to a wider community of adaptation practitioners and
policy makers. The UNFCCC National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process is therefore including
"Reporting, monitoring and review" as one of four main elements.Measuring the success of
adaptation is complicated by a number of factors. Other than for mitigation, which can be quantified
through the avoided amount of GHG emission, there is no universal and globally applicable metric to
measure adaptation success. Furthermore, adaptation is a cross-cutting area which overlaps with
many existing development measures. Climate change impacts also interact with other social,
economic or environmental pressures in a complex change process. This might explain why national
adaptation strategies have so far mainly been lacking a framework to monitor the outcomes of
adaptation actions (Biesbrock et al, 2010).The Deutsche Gesellschaft für International
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), on behalf of the German Federal Ministries for Economic Cooperation and
Development (BMZ) and for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), is
developing concepts and methods to measure adaptation results and is assisting its partner countries
in applying them. GIZ is currently supporting around a dozen countries in setting up national
adaptation M&E systems in close collaboration with the national authorities. The presentation will
describe the experiences gained in recent years and provide recommendations along five step of
developing and setting up adaptation M&E systems at national level. The insights and lessons
learned from GIZ's experience will be helpful for research and practitioners alike.

12-16 May 2014
INTERNATIONAL ADAPTATION AID: FROM INCREMENTAL TO

TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE?
Romain Weikmans () *
Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (1)
contact: romain.weikmans@ulb.ac.be
Abstract
Taking the emerging understanding of incremental/transformational adaptation as a point of
departure, this contribution explores the following questions: (i) How “incremental” is the current
international adaptation aid approach? and (ii) What would “transformation” mean in the context of
adaptation aid actions?To do so, we start by analysing the current international adaptation finance
landscape. We show that adaptation aid actors are to a very large extent traditional development aid
actors (probably with the same paradigms, difficulties, objectives, etc.). Indeed, institutions linked to
the UNFCCC only play a very small role in terms of adaptation funding disbursements. Moreover, it
seems that the adaptation agenda has had a very limited influence so far on the global aid landscape
as financial flows targeting adaptation activities amount to something like USD 10 billion/year, but
most of it is counted as traditional Official Development Assistance.We then present the results of
our systematic review of the projects and programmes funded by the Adaptation Fund of the Kyoto
Protocol. We show that its current interventions largely focus on improving communities’ ability to
cope with current climatic conditions, and on “climate proofing” development investments to address
incremental changes in familiar climate-related risks. Moreover, we argue that most discourse on
development cooperation and climate change adaptation essentially assumes that the impacts of
climate change can be “neutralized” by “adding” adaptation activities to existing or planned
development interventions, enabling them to meet targets that could have been set under assumptions
of a stationary climate. From our analysis, it is therefore clear that the current adaptation aid framing
can be described as “incremental”.To explore our second question, we analyse the implications for
adaptation aid actions of current weakening prospects of prompt mitigation. We discuss whether or
not it makes sense to invest limited financial resources in the impacts of the first 2°C of warming; or
if we need to leapfrog these incremental changes and invest more directly in the transformations
which will be required in a +4°C world.We conclude by stating that a shift from the current
incremental approach to preparing for more transformational adaptation needs seems difficult as the
emerging landscape of adaptation aid is built around existing poles of power – nation states and the
United Nations system. Indeed, can these actors be expected to conceive adaptation as anything else
than acts to reinforce the status quo?

12-16 May 2014
TRANSFORMATION INTO A CLIMATE-RESILIENT GERMANYACHIM DASCHKEIT,

PETRA MAHRENHOLZ - GERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT AGENCY (UBA),
DESSAU-ROßLAU/GERMANY
Achim Daschkeit (1) *; Petra Mahrenholz (1)

Federal Environment Agency, Dessau-Rosslau, Sachsen-Anhalt, Germany (1)
contact: achim.daschkeit@uba.de
Abstract
The German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (2008) as well as the Adaptation Action
Plan (2011) aim to decrease the vulnerability of natural and social systems respectively increase their
adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. Also the strategy points out that climate change
adaptation should be implemented under the umbrella of sustainability.Due to the fact that both
impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation measures differ by regions and by sectors,
climate change adaptation should be in line with sectoral and / or regional objectives and with the
general objective of sustainability. Particularly the latter leads to the question for future adaptation
policy whether it is sufficient to focus on incremental adaptation or to frame National Adaptation
Strategies as well as the implementation of adaptation as a part of transformation to sustainability.
The "transformative approach" argues that climate change is an additional driver of societal
development (besides other drivers as demographic change, urbanization, etc.) and considers
climate-resilience, decreased use of resources, and justice. Therefore the presentation deals with the
idea of a climate-resilient Germany within the process of a "Green Transformation": which steps are
necessary to achieve a climate-resilient society over the next decades? Firstly the presentation
overviews the German debate regarding climate resilience. Secondly this topic is exemplified by
coastal management and by construction and housing.

12-16 May 2014
STATIONARITY AS A LEGISLATIVE BARRIER TO ADAPTATION: BIODIVERSITY

CONSERVATION LEGAL FRAMEWORKS IN AUSTRALIA
Phillipa McCormack (1) *

University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia (1)
contact: phlmack@gmail.com
Abstract
Australia is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world but, with high rates of extinction and
ecological degradation, it has a poor track-record for biodiversity conservation (Steffen et al., 2009).
Climate change will interact with historic and existing pressures on biodiversity, and pose an
additional threat in its own right, resulting in changes to the abundance, distribution and function of
species and ecosystems (Steffen et al., 2009). There is therefore an urgent need to facilitate climate
change adaptation in the legal regimes established to conserve biodiversity.Legal frameworks in
Australia have been identified as a barrier to climate change adaptation and ‘climate ready'
conservation (Productivity Commission, 2012; Dunlop et al., 2013). Critiques include that the
objectives of Australia's biodiversity conservation law promote ‘stationarity' and laws are
predominantly reactive (Smith, 2010; Preston, 2013). Climate change presents a major challenge to
stationary conservation objectives, especially those that emphasise protecting particular species and
ecosystems in their existing form and location, for all time.There is limited research examining the
role of biodiversity conservation legal frameworks in Australia to overcome stationary perspectives
and facilitate adaptation under climate change. The paper seeks to fill that gap. It identifies the range
of legal contexts in which biodiversity conservation objectives are explicitly or implicitly stated.
These include overarching ‘objects' clauses in legislation, statutorily required protected area
management plans, and statutory criteria for environmental decision making.The paper examines
conservation objectives enshrined in statutory management plans for formal protected areas in two
Australian jurisdictions. It finds that management plans generally provide little acknowledgment of
climate change and the significant ecological changes that are projected to impact on biodiversity,
seeking instead to preserve protected areas in their current form. The paper proposes legal
mechanisms by which conservation objectives in protected area management plans may be reformed
and implemented to facilitate adaptation by biodiversity.Dunlop et al., Climate-ready conservation
objectives: a scoping study (NCCARF, 2013).Preston, 'Adapting to the impacts of climate change:
the limits and opportunities of law in conserving biodiversity' (2013) 30 EPLJ 375.Productivity
Commission, 'Barriers to effective climate change adaptation' (2012).Smith, 'How adaptable are our
conservation regimes?' in Bonyhady, Macintosh and McDonald (eds), Adaptation to climate change:
law and policy (The Federation Press, 2010).Steffen et al., A strategic assessment of the vulnerability
of Australia's biodiversity to climate change (CSIRO, 2009).

12-16 May 2014
SCALES OF ADAPTATION FOR NATURAL SYSTEMS IN AUSTRALIA
Craig James (1) *; Alistair Hobday (2); Kristen Williams (1); Russel Wise (1); John Oakeshott (1)
CSIRO, Canberra, Australia (1)
CSIRO, Hobart, Australia (2)
contact: craig.james@csiro.au
Abstract
Australia has a strong science foundation that has generated clear descriptions of historical changes
in the physical environment consistent with climate change, with similarly robust projections for
future change. In recent years natural systems scientists have also compiled a compelling body of
evidence for climate related impacts on species, habitats, and even entire regions. In parallel, a
groundswell of adaptation-focused research, with a clear national mandate, has provided world
leading practical and theoretical advice for implementing adaptation in many regions. We argue that
the early success of adaptation science in Australia has also contributed to a mal-adaptation - a
premature move to devolve adaptation action to local scales. Fragmented local actions are at a scale
below that needed for effective adaptation, and largely ignore regional planning approaches. Studies
investigating links with other sectors such as agriculture, coastal development and infrastructure
have also shown the potential for compounding stress on natural systems and constraints on future
adaptation that suggests integrated planning of actions at regional scales is desirable. We contend
that without a complementary larger scale approach for natural resource management in response to
climate change Australian biodiversity will suffer death by a thousand cuts. We explore what such a
regional approach might look like in Australia, with particular emphasis on understanding what the
policy settings for natural resource management goals should be at this scale and how to promote the
legitimacy and agency of decision makers to ensure coherent action.

12-16 May 2014
WAYS FOR ON-THE-GROUND PROGRESS IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

POLICY: THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED FLOODING IN THE FLEMISH
REGION, BELGIUM.
Ingrid Coninx (1) *

Wageningen University/Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Wageningen, The Netherlands (1)
contact: ingrid.coninx@wur.nl
Abstract
In Western-Europe, there is a common understanding that the way of developing adaptation policy
plans is shifting from a science-oriented approach towards an approach in which ‘collaborative
planning' and ‘making sense together' are the principal tenets. However, experiences of on-the-
ground illustrate that even these multi-stakeholders participative processes are every now and then
paralysed by protest and opposition from stakeholders. In other words, the statement that
stakeholders' involvement results in support for adaptation policy is not guaranteed. On-the-ground
progress can still be hampered and even stagnate. The research objective is to understand the
mental 'mechanisms' that determines actors' attitudes as well how to deal with it as being a policy
maker. Therefore, it is required to get a grip on motivations that 'actors' use to support or to oppose
adaptation measures. The analytical framework in this research is interdisciplinary and based on
theories from both behavioural economics, social psychology and social constructivism. The
combination of these different theoretical perspectives is new and has appeared to be successful in
getting a throughout understanding of the three main dimensions/mechanisms (values, interests and
perceptions) that determines an individual's attitude. The research is focussed on the case of flood
risk policy in the Flemish region in Belgium and has gathered empirical data from stakeholders
(n=245) having a key role in the progress of on-the-ground adaptation, as there are NGO's, business,
policy makers, public officers and scientists, by means of interviews and focus groups (qualitative
data). The mixed method technique Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (Ragin 1987) is
used to analyse the data. Apart from experimenting with a new theoretical and methodological
approach, the research results in five very practical guidelines for government to enable real progress
in climate change adaptation. These guidelines can be easily used in other policy contexts as well.

12-16 May 2014
TRANSFORMATIONAL ADAPTATION IN INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES: A

FRAMEWORK TO SUPPORT POSITIVE RESPONSES TO EXTREME OR RAPID
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Claudia Comberti (1) *; Thomas Thornton (1)

Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (1)
contact: claudia.comberti@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
When climate change impacts are particularly rapid or extreme, incremental adaptation may be
insufficient (Kates et al. 2012). This is particularly relevant for indigenous and rural communities in
developing countries, often the most environmentally exposed, vulnerable, marginalised and
resource-dependent groups, on the front lines of environmental change (Gadgil et al. 1993; Smith et
al. 2003; Nakashima et al. 2012). In such cases, a more radical adaptive response, transformational
adaptation (TA) may be required (Kates et al. 2012). Transformational adaptation refers to
fundamental changes to a social-ecological system in response to a shock or other stimuli (Walker et
al. 2004; Folke et al. 2010), and whilst this concept has been developed for adaptive management of
ecosystems (e.g. Chapin et al. 2009, Folke et al. 2005), factors necessary to support TA in indigenous
and rural communities remains under-researched. TA is conceived of in this instance as the radical
end of a spectrum of adaptive responses, which start with ‘coping’ and end in longer-term, more
fundamental ‘transformation’ (Thornton & Comberti 2013; Rickards & Howden 2012). This study
builds upon the existing literature on requirements for transformational change (e.g. Chapin et al.
2009; Olsson et al. 2006), wider literature on social change (e.g. Reed et al. 2010), and dimensions of
TA in indigenous communities (Thornton & Comberti 2013). Two case studies are presented to
illustrate the concept and refine a framework for transformational adaptation: a case of responses to
climate change in Himalayan communities in Humla, Nepal, is compared to a case of responses to
biodiversity change in communities in the Western Ghats of India resulting from the invasive
Lantana camara species. In exploring cases where TA did and did not occur, this study enables a
reflection on the differences between incremental and transformational adaptation and the
determining factors in these responses. Understanding when and how to support adaptive
transformation, in turn, can encourage positive responses to rapid and extreme environmental change
in exposed and vulnerable communities – a situation that will become increasingly pertinent given
future climate scenarios. This knowledge can be integrated into adaptation, mitigation and
development planning, such that synergies between them can be better exploited (Thornton &
Comberti 2013) and the resilience and adaptive capacity of marginalised communities increased.

12-16 May 2014
CURRENT TRENDS OF RESEARCH ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION:

MAPPING THE SPEECHES FOR BEST APPLICATION TO THE NEEDS OF THE
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Ana Araujo (1) *

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos Campos, Brazil (1)
contact: ana.araujo@inpe.br
Abstract
The concepts of vulnerability and adaptation are commonly used in planning and actions to cope
with global environmental change. In this work, the analysis of vulnerability is based in the causes
and why the different social groups are vulnerable to some risk and addresses the different scales of
economic, political and social factors involved. The term adaptation that underlies the IPCC
guidelines and has been subject to sectoral actions of policy-makers, is seen as an option to adjust the
dynamics of the natural environment, encouraging the company to respond in the face of threats . In
this sense, it is observed that adaptation , more than vulnerability, somehow absolve the
responsibility of society by the marginalization and injustice that lead to an increasement of various
situations of social vulnerability . This adaptive response is more reformist and naturalizes the
generating causes of vulnerability, not dealing with the conditions of socially generated inequalities,
which contributes little to a more transformative approach to the current world society. This study
evaluates the studies published in recent years on vulnerability and adaptation in two major journals
in the field and maps the trends identified in two types , a more reformist , being adaptation an
adjustment to the contemporary world natural(ized) dinamic and the other more analytical
transformer, questions the structural causes that lead to vulnerability in different locals and pointing
ways to reduce it The analysis of the factors that generate vulnerability before the adaptive action is
relevant to the research agenda of the developing countries, because it contributes to applications
more synergistics with the local needs , given the complexity of social , economic, political and
cultural factors that create situations which are harmful to human well-being and environmental
quality.

12-16 May 2014
RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF MEAT IN

BRAZIL: NGO PARTICIPATION IN THE LIVESTOCK TRANSFORMATION
Janaina Michelini (1) *

INPE, São José dos Campos, Brazil (1)
contact: janaina.michelini@inpe.br
Abstract
Brazil is the second largest producer and the largest exporter of beef in the world, and the Brazilian
government plans to double national meat export by 2018, thereby dominating 60% of world trade in
beef. At the same time, scientific studies and international organizations emphasize negative aspects
of meat production in terms of environmental impacts, sustainability and food security in a scenario
of continued growth in the production and consumption of meat worldwide. On the basis of new
empirical research, the paper explores how the Brazilian society integrates these contradictory
currents and what are the ways to transform the organization of this productive sector in Brazil. The
central focus is the identification of the role of Brazilian non-governmental organizations in this
transformation, considering that these organizations act almost as "isolated voices", contesting and
denouncing the implications of production and consumption of meat in Brazil. Data analysis on how
NGOs define the risks associated with livestock and how they deal with these risks reveals
heterogeneity: while some propose reformist actions, such as product certification and adoption of
new technologies, others challenge the present economic system, questioning consumer habits, the
predatory use of natural resources and unequal access to land, production methods, food production
and profit from the activity. Reflecting these different conceptualizations of risk there is great
diversity of kind of activity, with short partnerships between NGOs in specific campaigns, which
weakens the power to promote the desired transformation by these social actors.

12-16 May 2014
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITIES OF GERMAN MUNICIPALITIES
Esther Chrischilles (1) *; Hubertus Bardt (1)

Abstract
When it comes to adaptation polices, municipalities are playing a major role. This is because several
services of general interest might be negatively affected by the impacts of climate change and on the
other hand they have got a wide range of competences to shape and implement regional adaptation
strategies. Results of a survey among 317 municipal administrations point out whether and how
cities or municipalities might be affected by climatic changes.The central issue of the analysis and
the corresponding question is: To what extent are German municipalities vulnerable to climatic
changes? Here, vulnerability is understood as a concept, which encloses the potential impacts of
climate change at the local level and the available adaptation capacities simultaneously. With the
help of a survey among 317 municipal administrations two indices were generated to display the
extent of affectedness on the one hand and the volume of adaptation capacities on the other. By
considering the relation of these two indexes conclusions regarding the vulnerability of different
kinds of municipalities or key fields of action were made possible.Results at the level of federal
states show that today municipalities already feel affected by impacts of climate change but rather
slightly up to now. Nevertheless are the capacities to adapt to potential impacts quiet low. This might
be critical as many municipalities expect to be already strongly affected around 2030. If there won`t
be an adequate extension of capacities, most regions may be rather vulnerable and by then not be
able to react to the challenges ahead.Another question is, whether special types of municipalities are
more vulnerable - for example larger cities due to a high building density or surface sealing.
Surprisingly the questionnaire does not confirm the latter assumption. Smaller municipalities expect
to be equally if not more vulnerable than larger cities. This result reflects the fact that smaller
municipalities possess less adaptation capacities than large cities. The latter are often involved in
special research or pilot programs and get access to relevant human, financial and knowledge-related
resources.Concerning the impacts of climate change, municipalities will have to deal with increasing
problems in the future. Therefore efforts to improve municipal adaptation especially in terms of
adaptation capacity have to be made - i.e. by building authorities, resources, infrastructure or
knowledge. This is especially true for smaller municipalities and within certain regions.

12-16 May 2014
A GEOSPATIAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM AND ITS INSTITUTIONALIZATION

FOR CLIMATE INDUCED URBAN RISK GOVERNANCE IN HIMALAYA
Prakash Chandra Tiwari (1) *; Bhagwati Joshi (2)

contact: pctiwari@yahoo.com
Abstract
Urbanization has emerged as one of the major drivers of environmental changes in Himalaya. These
changes are making urban ecosystems highly vulnerable to a variety of natural and socio-economic
risks, particularly, slope failures, flash-floods, urban-fires and food, livelihood and health insecurity
affecting mainly poor and marginalized communities. Moreover, climate change has stressed urban
ecosystems through increased frequency, severity and intensity of natural as well as socio-economic
risks. Study aims at developing a urban risk reduction framework using geo-spatial technology and
demonstrating its application through multi-stakeholder governance with case illustration of Kumaon
Himalaya, India. Methodology included comprehensive terrain analysis; monitoring urban land-use
dynamics using satellite data; comprehensive assessment of socio-economic vulnerabilities and
carrying capacity of urban ecosystems; preparation of natural and socio-economic risk vulnerability
maps; development of geo-spatial support framework, and evolving institutionalized governance
mechanism involving multiple stakeholders and its demonstration at community and local
administrative levels. Integration of crisis vulnerability maps with various socio-economic
parameters indicated that frequency and intensity of incidences of high intensity rainfall, slope-
failure and landslides have enhanced with intensification of urban land use as well as with increase in
rainfall variability. Areas characterized with low carrying capacity and inhabited by socio-
economically marginalized groups have been found highly susceptible to such risks. In view of this,
exclusively tailored training programmes have also been organized for capacity building of local
government departments and communities for assessment and reduction of urban-risks using geo-
spatial support system. The system also included a framework for institutionalizing urban-risk
governance involving stakeholders from public, government agencies, civil society organizations,
NOGs, private sectors and other interest groups. It is expected, this will help in reducing
vulnerability of urban ecosystems through improved climate change response system, and create
opportunities for sustainable urban development across Himalaya as well as in other mountains
regions in developing world.

12-16 May 2014
ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES AND USE AND OCCUPATION OF LAND IN THE

CITY OF SÃO PAULO - SP, BRAZIL: SUBSIDIZING ADAPTATION MEASURES.
Magda Adelaide Lombardo (1,2) *; Fernanda Nicola Zanon (1); Bruna L. P. Jesus (2)
Universidade Estatual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho – UNESP, Rio Claro - SP, Brazil (1)
Universidade São Paulo – USP, São Paulo - SP, Brazil (2)
contact: lombardo@rc.unesp.br
Abstract
Abstract: In the last fifty years has been increasingly evident anthropogenic interventions on climate
change. In addition to increased temperature, several studies suggest that climate change is also
responsible for interference in the precipitation where there is an increased frequency of heavy rain.
In Brazil, the most frequent disasters are associated with atmospheric instability, which are
responsible for the onset of extreme weather events such as floods , windstorms, tornadoes, hail and
landslides.The aim of this study was to analyze, based on the use of indicators of precipitation and
the use and occupation of the land, the inter - relationship between precipitation and water behavior
occurring in the urban area of São Paulo, from 2001 to 2010, in order to propose measures for
adaptation.The methodology is based on the use of remote sensing techniques, we used images from
IKONOS and QuickBird results for the use and occupation of the land, and analysis of rainfall data
from weather stations, obtained in INMET (National Institute of Meteorology).The thematic maps of
land use and occupation, as well as analysis of climate dynamics in the period, contributed to
spatialize occurrences of flooding in Sao Paulo, characterizing the risk areas. This paper presents a
map suggesting strategies for adapting to climate change that can support local public policies.Key
words: precipitation, use and occupation of the land.

12-16 May 2014
IDENTIFYING ADAPTATIONS ACTIONS OF THOSE WHO COPE WITH URBAN

FLOODS IN SÃO PAULO - BRAZIL
Nayara Egute (1) *; Silvana Cutolo (1); Sonia Coutinho (1); Amanda Carbone (1); Arlindo Philippi
(1)
Public Health School, São Paulo, Brazil (1)
contact: nayara.egute@usp.br
Abstract
According to IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change it is very likely that frequency of
heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas. Extreme events such as heavy rains and
floods are becoming more frequent, reaching the urban environment. Although there are
uncertainties in the estimates of the effects of climate change, observations already indicate the
impacts of climate change and its effects in human health. Environmental health addresses all the
physical, chemical, and biological factors external to a person, and all the related factors impacting
behaviors. The city of São Paulo, the most densely populated area of Brazil, is particularly
vulnerable to climate change´s events such as floods also due to the urbanization process which
occurred in a marked way bringing consequences as the soil impermeabilization, removal of
vegetation and the channeling of rivers and streams. The study area of the project consists in an area
with irregular settlements located in the east of the county where communities are living in the bed
river so when it rains they are exposed to floods. Population and Government confrontation with
floods can be foreseen as adaptation initiatives. To comprehend the way the population and the
government are dealing with floods, the project will use as methodology interviews and participative
observation. The interviews will provide information about the perception of those who are affected
by the floods issue, including the community and the managers of the government. Questions in the
interview for the community will provide information about how people are responding to the floods,
how they learnt it, with which source or information and about their actions before, during and after
facing a flood experience. Questions in the interview for the managers of the government will
provide information about management strategies, actions for controlling the flood’s impacts and
about the challenges and successful experiences. The participative observation will help to
understand the social world from the subject's point-of-view and will also help to follow the
implementation of the Master Plan of the city of São Paulo in response to floods, by attending the
government meetings such as the Participatory Review of this management tool. This research aims
to offer support for the formulation of guidelines that address ways for coping with flooding in urban
areas, comprehending how the population and the government are dealing with floods in the context
of Environmental Health. Further results will be shown at the conference.

12-16 May 2014
SOLID WASTE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN BRAZIL
Victor Fernandez Nascimento (1) *; Anahi Chimini Sobral (2)

INPE, São José dos Campos/SP, Brazil (1)
Cemaden-INPE, Cachoeira Paulista/SP, Brazil (2)
contact: victor.nascimento@inpe.br
Abstract
Currently, world cities generate about 1.3 billion tonnes of solid waste per year. Waste generation
rates will more than double over the next twenty years in lower income countries (World Bank,
2012). In Brazil, this situations is not different, the Solid Waste National Plan (BRAZIL, 2012) show
us that in 8 years, from 2000 to 2008, the per capita national waste generation rises from 1,0
kg/person/day to 1,2 kg/person/day, besides, we have seen a Brazilian population growing that,
according to IBGE (2013), should reach 228,4 millions of inhabitants up to the year of 2042. Adding
to it, according to the research Overview of Solid Waste in Brazil, conducted by ABRELPE (2012),
waste production in the country has grown in proportion, more than de population. All these solid
wastes can cause a range of environmental, economic and social problems in the case of does not
occur an efficient management. According to the report "A Global Review of Solid Waste
Management", published by World Bank in 2012, municipal solid waste management is the most
important service a city provides; in low-income countries as well as many middle-income countries.
Recently in Brazil, after 20 years of discussion at National Congress, was implanted the Law
12.305/2010, which create the National Policy on Solid Waste, NPSW. Until then the country did not
have a specific law about solid waste. Some NPSW objectives are no generation of waste and the
environmentally adequate final destination, which includes reuse, recycle, composting, recover,
energetic use or another premised destinations, and, finally, the waste disposal, considering specific
operational standards to avoid damage or risks to public health safety and minimizing adverse
environment impacts. As seen, poorly managed waste has an enormous impact on health, local and
global environment, and economy (World Bank, 2012). Despite the NPSW creation in 2010, solid
waste impacts in Brazil tend to increase. An example of impact caused by solid waste is the increase
in greenhouse gases generation, as methane and its impact in climate change. Thus, this study aimed
to identify and discuss mainly on environmental impacts caused by solid waste in Brazil.

12-16 May 2014
WOMEN AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: AN ILLUSTRATION OF

INDIGENOUS WOMEN'S ADAPTATION PRACTICES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN
HIMALAYA
Bhagwati Joshi (1) *; Prakash Chandra Tiwari (2)

contact: bhawanatiwari@yahoo.com
Abstract
In Himalaya, constraints of terrain and climate impose stern restrictions on resource productivity as
well as on efficiency of infrastructure and services. Consequently, subsistence agriculture constitutes
main source of livelihood compelling large proportion of male population to out-migrates. Hence,
women are primary resource developers and backbone of subsistence mountain economy. During
recent years, a variety of changes have emerged in traditional agro-ecosystem in response to
population-growth, rapid urbanization and economic globalization resulting into depletion of natural
resources and disruption of traditional agricultural-system. Moreover, Climate change has stressed
agricultural-system, and increased community vulnerability to water, food and livelihood insecurity.
Women, experience these changes differently and disproportionately and respond them in varying
manner because of socially constructed gender relations. They make use of their critical traditional
knowledge in natural resource management and its adaptation to climate change which helped
women to become important agent climate change adaptation in Himalaya.Study aims at analyzing
coping mechanism of indigenous women to climate change with case illustration of Kumaon
Himalaya. Methodology included: (i) long-term observation of precipitation pattern; (ii) analysing
freshwater availability through interpretation of hydrological data; (iii) documentation of women's
adaptation practices and assessment of their sustainability through comprehensive socio-economic
surveys. Results indicated: (i) rainy-days and rainfall decreased (25% and 15%); (ii) water
availability declined (15%); (iii) irrigation potential and food-production reduced (15% and 25%);
(ii) women in 27% villages replenished water sources employing traditional water conservation
practices; (ii)19% women changed cropping pattern, (iii) women in 25% villages developed
indigenous rainwater harvesting system; (iv) 21% women adjusted crop-rotation; and (v) 27%
women relocated agriculture. It was observed these adaptation practices are not only building climate
change resilience in agricultural-system, but are also helping mountain women to come closer to
mainstream of sustainable development with economic growth; improved infrastructure and with
growing linkages with markets.

12-16 May 2014
DELTAIC ENVIRONMENTS, VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE ROLE

OF MIGRATION AS AN ADAPTATION AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATIONS (DECCMA)
Craig Hutton (1) *; Robert Nicholls (1)

University of Southampton, Southampton, UK (1)
contact: cwh@geodata.soton.ac.uk
Abstract
Deltas are formed by sediment-laden rivers reaching the sea and are highly sensitive to changes in
the catchment, the marine environment and the delta itself. Large tracts of land at low elevation make
deltas vulnerable to sea-level rise, but they also experience climate impacts such as droughts and
fluvial flooding. Deltas have some of the highest population densities in the world with 500 million,
often poor, residents. The adaptive strategies available to delta residents (e.g., gaining knowledge
about options available, disaster risk reduction by building shelters, or land use management) may
exacerbate gender inequalities, and may not be adequate to cope with pervasive, systemic, or shock
changes associated with climate change. Hence, large movements of people are often projected from
deltas under climate change. Migration is already an established household adaptation to cope with
environmental and economic change. This can be both a successful form of adaptation, increasing
the resilience of the migrant household, and unsuccessful, perpetuating vulnerability in a new
location with differential impacts on men and women. This paper presents a strategic overview of the
development of an integrative systems based approach to the modelling and analysis of the policy
relevant impacts of climate change and associated population vulnerabilities in deltas. First we
present an assessment of the literature on the vulnerability of deltas to climate change, and then draw
out key stakeholder based themes of concern in deltas experiencing climate impacts notably, rapid
environmental change and the differential impacts of migration on men and women. We then
describe the conceptual framework developed, linking climate models, trans-disciplinary socio-
environmental integrative modelling, participatory research methods and scenarios to support policy
formulation. We anticipate that this approach will enable identification of when migration is an
appropriate adaptation and when it is not, especially for the most vulnerable.

12-16 May 2014
FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR ADAPTATION RESEARCH IN THE GLACIER AND

SNOWPACK DEPENDENT RIVER BASINS OF THE HIMALAYA: THE HI-AWARE
PROGRAMME
Hester Biemans (1) *; Philippus Wester (2); Suruchi Bhadwal (3); Abu Syed (4); Muhammed Yasin
(5); Christian Siderius (1)
ALTERRA WUR, Wageningen, The Netherlands (1)
ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal (2)
TERI, Delhi, India (3)
BCAS, Dhaka, Bangladesh (4)
CAEWRI PARC, Islamabad, Pakistan (5)
contact: christian.siderius@wur.nl
Abstract
The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region - one of the most dynamic, diverse and complex
mountain and associated floodplains systems in the world - provides water resources and other
ecosystem services to more than 1.5 billion people in its mountains and floodplains. Socio-economic
changes in combination with climate change impacts may significantly affect their livelihoods. Over
the past years, scientific consensus has been building on the general pattern of climate change in the
HKH region, confirming a gradual increase in temperature and a modest increase in total
precipitation in the source areas of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers by the end of this
century. Throughout the HKH regions glaciers will recede, but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising
limb until at least 2050. What is still very uncertain is how the combination of increasing
temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will lead to shifts in the timing of precipitation and
runoff and in the frequency of extreme weather events like extended periods of extreme heat or high
intensity precipitation. Flooding already appears to affect the Ganges basin more frequently.
Indications of change in the frequency of droughts are ambiguous. Another topic of debate is the
relative contribution to climate change in the Himalaya by short-lived climate pollutants such as
black carbon. Translation of how more local and seasonal, time-specific shifts will impact people in
the mountains and plains during critical moments (e.g. water shortage during sowing time), and how
to adapt to these shifts, is still largely unexplored territory. To address priority adaptation issues in
Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, a new research programme called HI-AWARE is developing
robust evidence to inform policies and practices for enhancing the adaptive capacities and climate
resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people. The programme adopts a comparative and
cross-scalar approach, with research and pilot adaptation intervention sites re* a range of climates,
hydrological conditions and socioeconomic contexts. HI-AWARE will (i) generate scientific
knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability drivers and adaptation policies and practices;
(ii) systematically promote the uptake of knowledge and adaptation practices; and (iii) strengthen
interdisciplinary expertise in climate change adaptation and resilience research. These outcomes will
contribute to improved adaptation policies and practices.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE VOLTA DELTA, GHANA
Kwasi Appeaning Addo (1) *; Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe (2); Cynthia Addoquaye Tagoe (3)
Department of Marine and Fisheries Sciences, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana (1)
Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana (2)
Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana (3)
contact: kappeaning-addo@ug.edu.gh
Abstract
Deltas all over the world are highly sensitive to climate change impacts such as droughts, fluvial
flooding and salinisation. Large tracts of land at low topography make deltas vulnerable to sea-level
rise. This has the potential to affect sources of livelihoods of over 500 million residents in deltaic
regions globally. The Volta delta in Ghana is no exception to these problems. The Volta delta
contributes to the national economy by supporting fisheries activities, agriculture and salt production.
Flooding has displaced residents in the Volta delta, while drought has resulted in crop failure,
livestock losses, malnutrition, and increased health risks. Dam construction over the Volta River in
1965 has resulted in a regulated flow of approximately 900 m3/s and reduced sediment discharge
from about 71 million m3/a to about 7 million m3/a. This has resulted in chronic erosion of the delta.
For example in Keta, 5,000 houses have been lost to erosion since 1965. Various adaptive strategies
are available to delta residents. However, these approaches may exacerbate gender inequalities, and
may not be adequate to cope with pervasive, systemic, or surprise changes associated with climate
change. Hence, large movements of people are often projected from deltas under climate change.
This study therefore aims at assessing migration as an adaptation in the Volta deltaic environment
with a changing climate and to deliver policy support to create the conditions for sustainable gender-
sensitive adaptation. It will use survey, participatory research and economic methods to analyse the
impacts of climate change, and associated vulnerabilities in the Volta delta. It will also analyse the
processes of migration and assess when migration is an appropriate adaptation. In contrast to
previous research, this study will take a systemic and multi-scale analytical perspective to understand
gendered vulnerability and adaptation in the Volta delta under a changing climate by analysing
potential for migration. The study forms part of the DECCMA project involving four contrasting
deltas in Ghana, Egypt, Bangladesh and India coordinated by the University of Southampton with
funding from IDRC. The expectation of this study is that knowledge gained will encourage
appropriate gender-sensitive policy responses to ensure that the most vulnerable in deltas are able to
adapt, and how adaptation policy effectiveness can be maximised.

12-16 May 2014
EFFECTS OF CHANGING EXTREME EVENTS ON THE SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL

DYNAMICS OF COPING IN THE AMAZON
Patricia Pinho (1) *; Mark Stafford Smith (2)

CSIRO, Canberra, Australia (2)
contact: patricia.pinho@inpe.br
Abstract
Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in
remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. There is documented local knowledge and practices
for coping with the high seasonal variability in hydrology that is characteristic of the region, and
there are ‘civil Defense’ interventions by various levels of government, but these more extreme years
seem to have exceeded community coping capacity. We show there is a real increase in variability,
in line with expectations from climate change; however, current measures of hydrological regimes do
not predict years with social hardship very well. . Interviewees in two regions are able to express
their strategies for dealing with ‘normal’ variability very well, but also identify ways in which
abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. The community thus perceives that recent extreme
events are outside the experience which has shaped their responses to ‘normal’ levels of variability.
At a higher level of organisation, current Civil Defense arrangements also struggle to deliver
emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Better integration of
science, policy and local knowledge could improve the resilience of this social-ecological system to
future trends; we identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

12-16 May 2014
DEVELOPING STRUCTURAL AND FUNCTIONAL SOCIETAL ADAPTATION IN THE

MAP REGION OF SOUTHWESTERN AMAZONIA.
Foster Brown (1,2) *; George Santos (3,4); Celso Curi Paucarmaita (5); Juan Fernando Reyes (6);
Vera Lucia Reis (7,8); Leonor Mercedes Perales Yabar (5,9); Hugo Leonardo Fuentes (6); Rachel
Helena Farias (1); Elsa Mendoza (11,13); Antônio Willian Flores de Melo (2,13); 0; Sonaira Souza
da Silva (14,13); Gabriel Alarcón Aguirre (12);
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA (1)
Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (2)
Corpo de Bombeiros, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (3)
Defesa Civil Municipal de Rio Branco, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil (4)
Alcaldia Provincial de Tahuamanu, Iñapari, Madre de Dios, Peru (5)
Herencia, Cobija, Pando, Bolivia (6)
contact: fbrown@uol.com.br
Abstract
Southwestern Amazonia has become an epicenter for two severe droughts in 2005 and 2010 and for
recent frequent flooding. The Acre River flood in 2012 resulted in damages estimated at over 100
million US dollars in cities of the Madre de Dios/Peru – Acre/Brazil – Pando/Bolivia or MAP
Region, while in 2005 fires burned in over 400 thousand hectares of standing rain forests. In
addition, results from general circulation models suggest that annual temperatures for the MAP
region will depart definitively from recent variability within a decade. Societal responses to the new
normal have included increased investments in firefighting equipment and training, relocation of
vulnerable residents, early warning systems, and socioeconomic valuations of impacts to motivate
policy makers and regional societies. Urban centers, such as Rio Branco, have incorporated the
Resilient Cities Program of the U.N. Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) to reduce the impact of
extreme events. A trinational effort to coordinate a regional early warning system and responses to
extreme events has advanced international collaboration based on the HFA at local levels. These
adaptation responses are essential, but ultimately insufficient in addressing the impact of current and
projected extreme events; a multi-decadal global mitigation program to reduce adverse climate
change needs to be an integral part of this effort.

12-16 May 2014
USING PARTIAL PARTICIPATORY GIS (PPGIS) IN VULNERABILITY AND DISASTER

RISK REDUCTION IN GRENADA
Laura Canevari (1) *; Joan Bastide (2,4); Isabelle Choutet (2,3)

Oxford university, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK (1)
French Red Cross, Paris, France (2)
Sciences Po Paris, Paris, France (3)
University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland (4)
contact: laura.canevariluzardo@linacre.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
This paper describes the findings of a study that uses and evaluates a novel Partial Participatory GIS
(PPGIS) tool for vulnerability and disaster risk reduction. The use of participatory GIS to promote
more inclusionary hazard identification and in risk and vulnerability mapping remains largely
unexplored. In this case a participatory GIS tool was used in a project of the Grenada Red Cross
Society on sustainable disaster management with the goal of evaluating the potential of PGIS and
informing decision making in Grenada. PGIS has been criticized in the past for lacking scientific
accuracy and being too technical and costly to be capable of generating democratic and empowering
processes in small vulnerable communities. This study also examines whether these criticisms are
well founded and explores ways to overcome them. The results show that vulnerability maps created
using PGIS can provide highly relevant information to decision making, revealing actions that can
reduce risk. The value for decision- making is increased by using a partial participatory approach
where computer experts interact with communities to increase accuracy and overcome some of the
technical barriers to the use of GIS. The analysis suggests that PGIS has the potential to become an
important tool in vulnerability and disaster risk reduction plans and to assist communities to better
prepare for disasters. The study results also raise important questions regarding:How participative
should a participatory GIS approach be to help achieve the objectives of a mapping project and be
seen as legitimate by a community?How accurate must participatory GIS outputs be to help achieve
the objectives of a specific project? How much does the framing of objectives influence the outputs
of a mapping process and on which level should the process performance be assessed?

12-16 May 2014
ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE

MUNICIPALITY OF CURITIBA
Wanda Batista de Amorim (1); Rodrigo Freire De Macedo (1); Myrzah Bello (1) *
SNC-Lavalin, Montreal, Canada (1)
contact: wanda.batistadeamorim@snclavalin.com
Abstract
The identification of a city's vulnerabilities with regards to climate change allows the establishment
of mitigation and adaptation policies to address future potential adverse impacts. The objective of
this study was to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of Curitiba and Metropolitan Region
(inserted in the Upper Iguaçu basin). The current climate in the region of Curitiba was characterized
using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data. The future climate characterization was
carried out using the results from two climate models: a global developed by the Canadian Centre for
Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM3) and another regional model developed by the Hadley
Centre (HadRM3P). IPCC scenarios considered for the narratives of the global model were the A1B
and A2 and for the regional model were the A2 and B2. Hydrological processes related with the
generation of runoff in the watershed of the Upper Iguaçu were simulated using the HEC-HMS
hydrologic model and allowed to determine changes in extreme annual average daily minimum and
maximum flows. The flood lines for each of the scenarios were modeled using the hydraulic model
HEC-RAS; which identified the A2 scenario from HadRM3P model as the one that predicts the
greatest impact for the region. The flood risk areas estimated for this scenario, presented on several
maps of Curitiba, allowed to identify the infrastructures that may be impacted and/or more
vulnerable.

12-16 May 2014
ADAPTATION IN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT: FACILITATING CROSS-SECTORAL

KNOWLEDGE SHARING
Alianne Rance (1) *; Fiona Silke (1)

Net Balance, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (1)
contact: alianne@netbalance.com
Abstract
Climate change is modifying the way we need to plan our cities and future human settlements. While
current lack or regulation has left property developers in Australia with limited impetus for change,
the viability of our future settlements ad wider serious ramifications are of grave concern if
adaptation is considered an option: not a requirement. There are however non-regulatory motivations
that can be used to engage with the development industry and promote adaptation in new
development.A series of focus groups were run to engage the property development industry and
associated stakeholder groups such as the legal sector, financial institutions, industry associations,
insurance representative and developers themselves across the east coast of Australia. Stakeholders
put forward their sector perspectives on why the property industry should adapt to a changing
climate. These have been incorporated into an engagement model to more effectively motivate
property developers to attenuate climate risk. This paper discusses the proposed model and
facilitation of knowledge sharing using key perspectives from each sector group.

12-16 May 2014
THE ROLE OF C IVIL DEFENSE IN SANTOS/BRAZIL IN PREVENTION TO NATURAL

HAZARDS BASED UPON THE
CONCEPT OF URBAN RESILIENCE
Karolyne Ferrreira (1); Alex Abiko (1)

USP, São Paulo, SP, Brazil (1)
contact: karolyneaf@gmail.com
Abstract
The concept of urban resilience has been an important component in the urban planning discussion
and plays a key role in prevention, reaction, response and recovery both of infrastructure systems and
of population exposed to natural hazards. This is particularly important in the context of the climate
change when natural phenomena may be increasing significantly. It is expect from national and local
governments a promotion of resilience drawing special attention to housing in risk areas. To be
resilient many times does not mean to develop new policies or plans but actually to use the existing
ones in a way to minimize costs and delivering adequate technical solutions. In Brazil the Civil
Defense is responsible for mapping risk areas, to assist disaster prevention programs and post-
disaster reconstruction and it has to be active particularly in coastal cities which are more likely to
landslides and floods. One of the prevention programs named “Operação Verão” (Summer
Operation) takes place from December to March, summertime in Brazil and when there is heavy
rain. In “Operação Verão” groups of people who live in risk areas are trained to act in emergency
situations and in consequence saving lives. Although the Civil Defense develops training to avoid
life losses population continues to live in the same place because they don´t have any other housing
option. On one hand people’s capacity is improved, but on the other hand the vulnerability is still the
same. The aim of this study is to examine Civil Defense current programs in prevention to natural
hazards based upon the concept of urban resilience in a coastal municipality: Santos in the state of
São Paulo. Preliminary analysis has shown that in Santos the Civil Defense has done a preventive
plan to landslides and floods which includes weather forecast, rain gauge measurement, periodic
visits to risk areas and emergency training to the communities. The reduction of disaster risk
involves many sectors as the civil society, the private sector and specialists in several areas and the
local government is still the most important actor to hang together all these sectors to achieve urban
resilience.

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12-16 May 2014

MAPA DE VULNERABILIDADE DA POPULAÇÃO DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 194

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND

Moses Herbert Lubinga (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 292

STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR INFRASTRUCTURE ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 394

NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS: SHARING AND LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE

Roger B Street (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 397

CHILEAN COASTAL URBAN VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A TOP-

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 428

CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN THE RIVER

Helena Cotler (1) *; Daniel I. González (1); Verónica Bunge (1)

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 465

INTER-MODEL VARIABILITIES IN HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES PROJECTIONS IN

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 517

FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 523

A CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ANALYSIS

Andrea Sabelli (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 534

PRESENT AND FUTURE WATER RESOURCES SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 572

CLIMATE CHANGE, HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY: MULTISCALE ANALYSIS IN

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 600

THE IMPACT'CLIMAT VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS TOOL FOR LOCAL

Céline Phillips (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 609

RADAR: RAPID VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN RURAL CONTEXTS

Diego Lindoso (1,2) *; Saulo Rodrigues-Filho (1,2)

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 672

ASSESSING VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS FOR PRAGMATIC ADAPTATION IN

Donovan Campbell (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 722

COLLABORATIVE CONSTRUCTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN ON

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 740

IDENTIFICATION OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR CONSERVATION AND

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 747

CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY, IMPACT AND ADAPTATION ANALYSIS IN

Cesar Cabello (1); Rossana Scribano (1) *

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 806

DEVELOPING AN ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TO GLOBAL

Natalia Barbosa Ribeiro (1) *; Rosa Fomiga Johnsson (1)

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 864

MODELLING VULNERABILITY TO DEVELOP ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 887

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN ANDEAN BOLIVIAN COMMUNITIES

Paula Pacheco (1) *; Ana Lía Gonzáles (1)

Session: 1 - Reference Number: 909

SENSORES REMOTOS Y LA MITIGACION AL CAMBIO CLIMATICO EN ECUADOR

Session: 2 - Reference Number: 2

CLIMATIC STRESSORS : MAJOR RECENT CHANGES AND PROJECTIONS IN THE

Jose Marengo (1) *

Session: 3 - Reference Number: 400

ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION INITIATIVES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH

Fabio Scarano (1,2) *; Edwin Castellanos (3)

Session: 3 - Reference Number: 474

FRESHWATER RESOURCES: MAJOR RECENT CHANGES AND PROJECTIONS IN

Sebastian Vicuna (1) *

Session: 3 - Reference Number: 537

LESSONS LEARNED FROM AUTONOMOUS AND PLANNED ADAPTATION

Edwin Castellanos (1) *