Stepping Up to the Avançando para o futuro com

Future with Power transformadores de potência

Transformers Estratégias de gerenciamento de ativos de

transformadores de potência: estado da arte e
recomendações para o futuro
Power Transformer Asset
Os transformadores têm sido usados na
Management Strategies: State of the indústria de energia por mais de um século, desde
Art and Recommendations for the que o uso generalizado de geração, transmissão e
Future distribuição CA tornou-se o padrão. Mesmo agora,
eles continuam sendo um dos ativos de subestação
Transformers have been used in the power
mais importantes que as concessionárias de todo o
industry for more than a century since the
mundo planejam e operam. A Figura 1 mostra um
widespread use of ac generation, transmission, and
transformador de 200 MVA em serviço em uma
distribution became the standard. Even now, they
subestação da concessionária. Nas últimas
remain one of the most important substation
décadas, com um rápido impulso em direção à
assets that utilities around the world plan and
digitalização da rede devido à proliferação de
operate. Figure 1 shows a 200-MVA transformer in
recursos de energia distribuídos (DER), a antiga
service at a utility substation. In the past few
estratégia de gerenciamento de ativos de
decades, with a rapid push toward grid
transformadores também evoluiu para melhor.
digitalization due to the proliferation of distributed
energy resources (DER), the age-old transformer Os transformadores de potência modernos
asset management strategy has also evolved for geralmente são projetados para densidades de
the better. fluxo mais altas para reduzir o tamanho do
transformador. No entanto, com densidades de
Modern power transformers are often
fluxo mais altas, a perda do núcleo e o
designed for higher flux densities to reduce the
consequente aumento da temperatura do
transformer size. However, with higher flux
transformador podem se tornar um problema. Com
densities, the core loss and resulting increased
o aumento da penetração dos DERs, o fluxo reverso
transformer temperature can become a problem.
de potência também se torna difícil de lidar, a
With the increased penetration of DERs, reverse
menos que as concessionárias prestem atenção e
power flow also becomes challenging to handle
especifiquem novos transformadores
unless utilities pay attention and specify new
adequadamente. As concessionárias em todo o
transformers accordingly. Utilities around the globe
mundo devem planejar estratégias eficazes de
should plan for effective predictive maintenance
manutenção preditiva, pois recorrer ao
strategies, as falling back on "overdesign" might
"overdesign" pode não ser mais relevante.
not be relevant anymore.
As concessionárias devem buscar uma
Utilities must strive for a holistic transformer
estratégia holística de gerenciamento de ativos de
asset management strategy that clearly defines the
transformadores que defina claramente a estrutura
structure being followed based on periodic
a ser seguida com base na coleta periódica de
standard data collection, monitoring packages, and
dados padrão, pacotes de monitoramento e testes.
tests. The following sections will be a quick tour of
As seções a seguir serão um tour rápido pelos
transformer loading capability calculations, impacts
cálculos de capacidade de carga do transformador,
of reverse power flow on transformers due to DER
impactos do fluxo de potência reverso em
growth, economic analysis of transformers,
transformadores devido ao crescimento de DER,
possible spare transformer strategies in light of
análise econômica de transformadores, possíveis
enhanced data and supply chain challenges and
estratégias de transformadores sobressalentes à luz
reliability implications of transformer failures.
de dados aprimorados e desafios da cadeia de
suprimentos e implicações de confiabilidade de
falhas de transformadores .
Transformer Operational issues and
Insights
Transformer Loading Capability
Calculations
The transformer loading capability
calculation is a significant element in determining a
transformer's normal short-term emergency (STE)
and long-term emergency (LTE) mega volt-ampere
(MVA) ratings. A normal rating is generally the 24-h
continuous rating. However, rating practices vary
among different countries and among organizations
within the same country. Sometimes, ambient
temperatures are considered for calculating ratings.
An STE is something shorter than 24 h and can be
anything from 15 min to even 4 h, depending on
which region of the world we are talking about.
The same argument goes for an LTE, which is longer
than an STE but shorter than 24 h. There are
entities in the United States that consider the same
MVA rating for both STEs and LTEs. Such ratings are
typical inputs into transformer models used in
planning studies and help determine loading
capabilities in real-time operations.
There are several ways a utility can define
how to rate its transformers, which range in
degrees of complexity. However, it is critical that
the methodology be defined and follow, maintain
compliance with certain mandatory “North
American Electric Reliability Corporation”
standards, such as FAC-008, which mandates that
each utility develop and mains a rating
methodology for bulk electric system transform.
Before delving more into transformer ratings that
are followed by utilities, it is pertinent to have a
brief discussion of the transformer core flux
densities at this point to set the ground for the
reverse power flow that will be discussed later.
Figure 1. A representative 200 MVA power
transformer at a utility substation
Problemas operacionais e insights do
transformador
Cálculos de Capacidade de Carga do
Transformador
O cálculo da capacidade de carga do
transformador é um elemento significativo na
determinação das classificações normais de
emergência de curto prazo (STE) e emergência de
longo prazo (LTE) de megavolt-ampere (MVA) de
um transformador. Uma classificação normal é
geralmente a classificação contínua de 24 horas. No
entanto, as práticas de classificação variam entre
diferentes países e entre organizações dentro do
mesmo país. Às vezes, as temperaturas ambientes
são consideradas para calcular as classificações.
Um STE é algo menor do que 24 horas e pode
variar de 15 minutos a até 4 horas, dependendo de
qual região do mundo estamos falando. O mesmo
argumento vale para um LTE, que é mais longo que
um STE, mas menor que 24 horas. Existem
entidades nos Estados Unidos que consideram o
mesmo rating MVA tanto para STEs quanto para
LTEs. Essas classificações são entradas típicas em
modelos de transformadores usados em estudos
de planejamento e ajudam a determinar as
capacidades de carregamento em operações em
tempo real.
Existem várias maneiras pelas quais uma
concessionária pode definir como classificar seus
transformadores, que variam em graus de
complexidade. No entanto, é fundamental que a
metodologia seja definida e seguida, mantendo a
conformidade com certos padrões obrigatórios da
“North American Electric Reliability Corporation”,
como FAC-008, que exige que cada concessionária
desenvolva e mantenha uma metodologia de
classificação para a transformação do sistema
elétrico em massa. Antes de aprofundar mais nas
classificações do transformador que são seguidas
pelas concessionárias, é pertinente ter uma breve
discussão sobre as densidades de fluxo do núcleo
do transformador neste ponto para definir o
terreno para o fluxo de potência reverso que será
discutido posteriormente.
 International Electrotechnical Commission
(IEC) 60076-1-2011, which is followed by many
nations worldwide, specifies a voltage/frequency
(V/f) of 110% of the rated V/f for the continuous
no-load operation of power transformers. The flux
density in the core is directly proportional to V/f if
the number of turns and the core area are kept
constant for a transformer in service. As per the
IEC, along with the no-load requirement, power
transformers should not be operated at a flux
density over 5% more than they were designed for.
Generally, for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon
steel, which is one of the most popular core
materials, 1.9 T is the absolute maximum flux
density that a transformer might operate at to have
the additional 5% headroom for core saturation.
Generally, and though it might differ slightly around
the world, flux densities of 1.7 T for generator step-
up transformers and 1.6-1.65 T for others are often
used. A flux density lower than these values might
also be used for specific reasons, such as low-noise
requirements for transformers used in urban areas
and mitigating reverse power flow impacts for
areas that are predicted to witness DER growth.
Now, coming back to transformer ratings,
multiple ways exist to define a rating methodology
for bulk electric system transformers and other
lower-voltage transformers. For instance, a utility
may simply use a transformer's nameplate rating as
its normal operating rating and 110% of its
nameplate rating as its STE rating, based on good
utility practice and engineering judgment. Design
and manufacturing margins cause the temperature
rise test results at the transformer nameplate
rating to be less than the defined temperature limit
values. This way is simple to justify, document, and
review but lacks technical details and possibly
underestimates a transformer's loading capability,
which may negatively impact grid capacity.
A Comissão Eletrotécnica Internacional (IEC)
60076-1-2011, seguida por muitas nações em todo
o mundo, especifica uma tensão/frequência (V/f)
de 110% da V/f nominal para a operação contínua
sem carga de transformadores de potência.
A densidade de fluxo no núcleo é diretamente
proporcional a V/f se o número de espiras e a área
do núcleo forem mantidos constantes para um
transformador em serviço. De acordo com o IEC,
juntamente com o requisito sem carga, os
transformadores de potência não devem ser
operados com uma densidade de fluxo acima de
5% a mais do que foram projetados. Geralmente,
para aço silício de grão orientado laminado a frio,
que é um dos materiais de núcleo mais populares,
1,9 T é a densidade de fluxo máxima absoluta em
que um transformador pode operar para ter 5% de
margem adicional para saturação do núcleo.
Geralmente, e embora possa diferir ligeiramente
em todo o mundo, as densidades de fluxo de 1,7 T
para transformadores elevadores de geradores e
1,6-1,65 T para outros são frequentemente usadas.
Uma densidade de fluxo inferior a esses valores
também pode ser usada por motivos específicos,
como requisitos de baixo ruído para
transformadores usados em áreas urbanas e
mitigação de impactos de fluxo de energia reversa
para áreas que estão previstas para testemunhar o
crescimento de DER.
Agora, voltando às classificações do
transformador, existem várias maneiras de definir
uma metodologia de classificação para
transformadores de sistema elétrico em massa e
outros transformadores de baixa tensão. Por
exemplo, uma concessionária pode simplesmente
usar a classificação nominal de um transformador
como sua classificação operacional normal e 110%
de sua classificação nominal como sua classificação
STE, com base nas boas práticas da concessionária
e no julgamento de engenharia. As margens de
projeto e fabricação fazem com que os resultados
do teste de aumento de temperatura na
classificação da placa de identificação do
transformador sejam menores que os valores
limites de temperatura definidos. Esta forma é
simples de justificar, documentar e revisar, mas
carece de detalhes técnicos e possivelmente
subestima a capacidade de carregamento de um
transformador, o que pode impactar
negativamente a capacidade da rede.
 A more rigorous way of determining a
transformer's loading capability is using IEEE
C57.91 clause 7 equations, which are used to
calculate the operating temperatures (oil and
winding hottest spot) of a transformer, based on
the load cycle and ambient temperature. The
equations can also be used to determine the
reduction of a transformer's insulation life
referenced to a benchmark value. The allowable
loading capability for any defined load cycle and
ambient temperature profile is determined by
iterating the calculations until any one of the
temperature, loss of life, or maximum per-centage
of nameplate rating limits is reached.
A simplified calculation process for clause 7
is described in Figure 2. Measured temperature
(i.e., ambient, winding hottest spot, winding
average, top oil, and so on) and kilowatt loss data
(i.e., load and no-load losses) are obtained from
factory tests based on rated loads. As a result of
considering the site-specific ambient temperature
profile and the iterative process to identify the
maximum allowable load (mega volt-ampere)
rating, the ultimate load is likely greater than the
rated one, which can be used as a new loading
capability rating and provide more capacity
headroom for a dispatcher. In summary, clause 7
equations are needed to derive the ultimate
transformer operating temperatures with ultimate
loads and ambient temperatures. The calculations
are included in an iterative process, which
gradually increases a transformer's ultimate load
until one of the criteria is reached (typically the
winding hottest-spot temperature threshold). Such
an ultimate load will be documented as the
transformer's loading capability or MVA rating
associated with the input load and ambient
temperature profiles.
Uma maneira mais rigorosa de determinar a
capacidade de carga de um transformador é usar as
equações IEEE C57.91 cláusula 7, que são usadas
para calcular as temperaturas operacionais (ponto
mais quente do óleo e do enrolamento) de um
transformador, com base no ciclo de carga e na
temperatura ambiente. As equações também
podem ser usadas para determinar a redução da
vida útil do isolamento de um transformador com
referência a um valor de referência. A capacidade
de carga permitida para qualquer ciclo de carga
definido e perfil de temperatura ambiente é
determinada pela iteração dos cálculos até que
qualquer um dos limites de temperatura, perda de
vida ou porcentagem máxima dos limites de
classificação da placa de identificação seja atingido.
Um processo de cálculo simplificado para a
cláusula 7 é descrito na Figura 2. A temperatura
medida (ou seja, ambiente, ponto mais quente do
enrolamento, média do enrolamento, óleo superior
e assim por diante) e dados de perda de quilowatts
(ou seja, perdas de carga e sem carga) são obtidos
de testes de fábrica com base em cargas nominais.
Como resultado de considerar o perfil de
temperatura ambiente específico do local e o
processo iterativo para identificar a classificação de
carga máxima permitida (mega volt-ampère), a
carga final é provavelmente maior do que a
nominal, que pode ser usada como uma nova
capacidade de carga classificação e fornecer mais
espaço livre de capacidade para um despachante.
Em resumo, as equações da cláusula 7 são
necessárias para derivar as temperaturas máximas
de operação do transformador com cargas
máximas e temperaturas ambientes. Os cálculos
são incluídos em um processo iterativo, que
aumenta gradualmente a carga final de um
transformador até que um dos critérios seja
alcançado (normalmente o limite de temperatura
do ponto mais quente do enrolamento). Essa carga
final será documentada como a capacidade de
carga do transformador ou classificação MVA
associada à carga de entrada e aos perfis de
temperatura ambiente.
 To the best of our knowledge, some utilities
adopt the clause 7 methodology by assuming a
constant load (e.g., one per unit) and average daily
ambient temperature (e.g., 30 °C). This
methodology does not consider load and ambient
temperature variation in the calculations, which
simplifies the process but leads to a potentially
more conservative loading capability result. As
detailed in Figure 3(a), the ambient temperature
(yellow bars) and the transformer loading (black
line) are assumed constant. When the transformer
is loaded to 1.15 per unit (the black line), the
calculated winding hottest-spot temperature
reaches its limit (120 °C), as shown by the red
dashed line. In other words, the transformer's
loading capability is 1.15 per unit, with a binding
constraint at the winding hottest-spot temperature.
As shown in Figure 3(b), if a variable ambient
temperature (yellow bars) and transformer load
cycle curve (black line) are considered, the
resulting winding hottest-spot temperature (red
dashed line) and top oil temperature (blue dashed
line) curves are obtained. In this example, the
winding hottest-spot temperature reaches its limit
(120 °C) at 9 p.m., which is the binding constraint
limiting the transformer loading capability at 1.23
per unit when the peak load occurs at 7 p.m. Note
that the load cycle curve such as the black line in
Figure 3(b)1 is defined with its constant shape but
can be shifted up or down until a constraint (the
winding hottest-spot temperature or top oil
temperature) is binding. This comparison shows
that considering variable ambient temperature and
load cycle curves likely increases a transformer's
loading capability because a transformer is loaded
with variable loads that help dissipate heat.
Até onde sabemos, algumas concessionárias
adotam a metodologia da cláusula 7, assumindo
uma carga constante (por exemplo, uma por
unidade) e temperatura ambiente diária média
(por exemplo, 30 °C). Essa metodologia não
considera a variação de carga e temperatura
ambiente nos cálculos, o que simplifica o processo,
mas leva a um resultado de capacidade de
carregamento potencialmente mais conservador.
Conforme detalhado na Figura 3(a), a temperatura
ambiente (barras amarelas) e a carga do
transformador (linha preta) são consideradas
constantes. Quando o transformador é carregado a
1,15 por unidade (a linha preta), a temperatura
calculada do ponto mais quente do enrolamento
atinge seu limite (120 °C), conforme mostrado pela
linha tracejada vermelha. Em outras palavras, a
capacidade de carga do transformador é de 1,15
por unidade, com uma restrição obrigatória na
temperatura do ponto mais quente do
enrolamento.
Conforme mostrado na Figura 3(b), se uma
temperatura ambiente variável (barras amarelas) e
uma curva de ciclo de carga do transformador
(linha preta) forem consideradas, a temperatura do
ponto mais quente do enrolamento resultante
(linha tracejada vermelha) e a temperatura do óleo
superior (linha tracejada azul curvas são obtidas.
Neste exemplo, a temperatura do ponto mais
quente do enrolamento atinge seu limite (120 °C)
às 21h, que é a restrição obrigatória que limita a
capacidade de carregamento do transformador em
1,23 por unidade quando o pico de carga ocorre às
19h. Observe que a curva do ciclo de carga, [como
a linha preta na Figura 3(b)], é definida com sua
forma constante, mas pode ser deslocada para
cima ou para baixo até que uma restrição (a
temperatura do ponto mais quente do
enrolamento ou a temperatura do óleo no topo)
seja obrigatória. Essa comparação mostra que
considerar a temperatura ambiente variável e as
curvas de ciclo de carga provavelmente aumenta a
capacidade de carga de um transformador porque
um transformador é carregado com cargas variáveis
que ajudam a dissipar o calor.
 We also benchmarked how variable load
cycle curves impact a transformer's operating
temperatures. In Figure 4, a load curve with a solid
green line represents a typical "duck" load shape,
which involves a lower demand when sufficient
solar radiation is available around 2 p.m., followed
by a rapidly increasing demand ramp from 3 to 6
p.m. To the contrary, the other load curve with a
dashed green line pertains to a traditional load
shape for a region with an insignificant amount of
DERs. Note that the DERs considered in this article
are mainly solar rooftop systems. However, other
forms of DERs, including battery energy storage
systems, should be evaluated for transformer
loading capability calculations and their potential
impacts. The red solid- and dashed-line curves
represent the calculated winding hottest-spot
temperature results pertaining to the "duck" and
traditional load shapes. respectively, which are
both limited at 120 °C as desired. The peak loading
capability of the transformer for the "duck" load
shape is higher than that for the traditional load
shape. A transformer energized under a "duck"
curve can bear a higher peak load, as the heat
inside the transformer is accumulated starting from
a lower temperature (at 2 p.m.). Also note that the
trend of a transformer’s operating temperature
(i.e., the winding hottest-spot temperature) always
lags that of the load curve. For example, the peak
of the "duck" load curve (solid green line) occurs at
6 p.m., while the peak of its corresponding winding
hottest-spot temperature (solid red line) occurs
two hours later, at 8 p.m. This delay between the
transformer peak load and peak winding hottest-
spot temperature is due to the time constant for a
transformer's oil temperature change. In other
words, a transformer's operating temperatures
cannot change immediately with the load change,
as the transformer oil has a high heat capacity.
Based on IEEE-057.91, during transformer
overload, STE and LTE operations, the temperature
of the oil in tike winding cooling ducts rises rapidly
at a time constant much shorter than the bulk oil
inside the tank. Therefore, during this transient
condition, the duct oil temperature adjacent to the
winding hottest-spot location is higher than the top
oil temper¬ature in the tank. Figure 4 illustrates
this occurrence, where the orange curve
representing the winding duct oil temperature
sur¬passes the blue curve representing the tank
top oil temperature right after 3 p.m. Note that, at
3 p.m., the load ramps up due to the decrease of
photovoltaic generation. This situation occurs
because the wind¬ing duct oil reacts to the ramp of
the load more quickly than the reaction of the tank
oil, due to a shorter time constant. This phenom-
enon needs to be noted because it can result in
winding hottest-spot temperatures greater than
calcu¬lated by the equations of clause 7, which do
not consider the winding duct oil temperatures as a
medium to calculate the winding hottest-spot
temperatures (as shown in Figure 5). Therefore, the
IEEE-C57.91 working group provides an alternate
methodology to better reflect the thermal
transforma¬tion among windings, duct oil, and
tank oil while considering various cooling methods.

Reverse Power Flow Impacts to Transformers

Another emerging trend surfacing in the utility
space is the impact of reverse power from DERs
back to the grid through transformers. Due to the
large-scale penetration of DERs, there has been a
growing concern about reverse power flow
and its impact on interface transformers. Reverse
power flow happens when power starts to flow
from the distribution to the transmission system
through interface transformers, due to large-scale
renewable penetration producing more power than
a local load requires and due to the absence of
adequate energy storage capabilities in the
distribution DER nodes to which the DERs are
connected.
ers both active and reactive power
to the grid (—P, —Q), an example of
a third quadrant operation. In this
case, the active power P flows from
the load (DER) to the grid, while
the phase angle between vl and v2

The question is, Does reverse power flow affect is less than zero, or v, leading v1, figure 5. The
transformer health, and how can utilities prepare winding duct oil temperatures versus the top oil
for this phenomenon in the coming years as more
DERs get interconnected to the power system?
Let's consider a two-winding transformer with its
high side connected to the grid and its low side
connected to a load or DER. The high-side voltage
is v1, and the low-side terminal voltage is v2, with
v, being the reference for comparison. Now, if the
low side is connected to an inductive load, such as
a motor. that draws a lag¬ging reactive power. both
active

power P and reactive power Q flow

from the grid side to the load side.

The phase angle between v, and v2

is greater than zero, or v, leads v2,

and the magnitude of the excitation

voltage E, in this case, is greater

than the magnitude of the load ter-

minal voltage v,. This is the case

where the transformer is operat-

ing in the first quadrant (+P, +Q),

and the magnetizing current I. is drawn from the

grid.

In the second scenario, we con¬sider a second

quadrant opera¬tion where the load side delivers
active power (—P) but absorbs reac¬tive power
(+Q). In this case, active power flows from the load
side to the grid, with the phase angle between v1
and v, now less than zero, or v, leading v1, and the
mag¬nitude of the excitation voltage E is greater
than the magnitude of the load side terminal
voltage v2. The magnetizing current Im is again
drawn from the grid in this case. In the third
scenario, let's consider the situation when the load
side deliv-
side. Since the active power flows from the grid experience, are aware of this problem and
side to the load side, the phase angle between v, currently working diligently to solve this issue in
and v2 is positive, or v, leading v2. The magnitude multiple ways. Increased taps for on-load tap
of the excitation voltage E is less than the changers and core designs with reduced flux
magnitude of the load side terminal voltage v2, and densities are some of the possible resolutions of
hence, the magnetizing current. In, is supplied by this problem. However, there are several legacy
the DER in this scenario. In a transformer core, the transformers in the system today that face the
magnetizing flux is set up by the exci¬tation voltage challenges outlined in this section.
E through the magnetizing current I,,,. When the
For new transformers, it is important to understand
transformer is operating in the first and the second
these design considerations if a transformer will be
quadrants, the core flux is established by the grid
installed at a place where there is high DER growth
voltage. When the trans¬former is operating in the
or DER growth is pre¬dicted to rise in the future.
third and the fourth quadrants, the excitation
For existing transformers in places with high DER
voltage and, i.n turn, the core magnetizing flux are
penetration, monitoring transformer harmon¬ics at
initiated by the DER instead. Transformers are
close time intervals throughout the year,
designed such that the flux in the core is
depending on the geography and DER penetration,
established by the grid voltage, which is tightly
should be prioritized. Moreover, transformer
regulated in a certain hand and for all practical
primary and secondary voltage checks should
pur¬poses can he taken as constant.. When the
provide a way to understand whether there is an
core flux is instead set up by the DER, it is seen
issue in case reverse power flow is happening at
through practical utility experience that the flux
the interface. When ordering new interface
will increase in the core during reverse power flow.
transformers in areas of the grid that are predicted
The point to understand here is that transformers to witness high DER penetration, aohtl
are optimally designed to operate close to the knee
point of their magnetizing characteristics.
Therefore, any increase in the core flux density will
increase the transformer core losses significantly.
Increased core loss might affect the thermal life of
a transformer. Moreover, grid voltage being
constant, if the excitation current increases due to
the DER, there is a good chance of core saturation.
Core saturation in a trans-former creates additional
losses and harmonics. A typical three-limb core-
type transformer does not provide a path

for zero sequence flux, and hence, increased

harmonics and

core saturation can be greatly aggravated in these

scenarios.

Therefore, a good possibility exists that the life of a

trans¬former might be shortened due to reverse
power flow, and hence, some utilities in the United
States already have specific reverse power flow
requirements limiting the amount of reverse power
flow through interface transformers. Also, utilities
might be able to get ahead of this problem by
initiating a conversation with transformer
manufacturers, most of which, by the authors'
low flux ratio can be chosen (1.5 or 1.6 T) instead
of the more standard 1.7 T. Distribution planning in
a high-DER penetra-tion scenario becomes quite
different and more challenging than traditional
utility distribution planning, and a minimum
loading criterion might need to be developed with
thorough studies and expertise to prevent reverse
power flow if operat-ing with legacy transformer
designs.
Challenges Due to Long Transformer Lead Time In
addition to the challenges of planning for increased
lev¬els of DERs on circuits, the availability of
transformers is another issue facing the utility
industry today. Due to COVID-19 and supply chain
disruptions, the power indus¬try is now witnessing
a challenge in procuring some key assets. and
transformers have become particularly
challeng¬ing to procure in a normal time frame. In
the United States, approximately 90% of the
consumed power flows through
large power transformer (LPT). Due to the shortage
of domestic manufacturers, most of the LPTs are
imported, and this creates a potential supply
bottleneck. Utilities are now challenged with
evolving their spare equipment strategies to
incorporate the longer lead times for LPTs to
maintain grid resilience. Moreover, LPT trans-
portation and overall logistics are also challenging
and should be planned efficiently. Figure 6 shows
an LPT being transported to be put in service in the
AES Ohio service territory.
transformer asset strategies to reflect longer lead
times for replacement planning. Histori¬cally,
utilities typically run transformers to failure and
carry
larger spare inventory levels to account for
unplanned failures, or they elect to do planned
replacements and carry leaner inventories. Utilities
running transformers to failure and those that use
planned replacements must update their strategies
and models to account for longer lead times. Not
adjusting the spare transformer strategy based on
current lead times can be a problematic long-term
approach, due to long lead times of 18-24 months
for purchasing and receiving a new transformer.
The average life expectancy of a transformer is
typically 40-50 years. If a certain percentage of
transformers operating in the utility footprint are
nearing typical life expec¬tancy, additional
monitoring and asset replacement planning should
be prioritized. This will ensure that the inventory
strat¬egy is still appropriate, given the health of the
transformer fleet in this long-lead-time
environment.

In June 2022, the United States mandated the use Transformer Asset Health Monitoring Strategies
of the Defense Production Act to increase the The goal of this section is to recommend
output of transformers for domes¬tic transformer asset health monitoring strategies to
manufacturers. Figure 7 pres¬ents a representative transition the industry to a future state where
process to acquire an LPT by a utility. This process, predictive maintenance takes over pre-emptive
as of writing this article, can take anywhere from maintenance due to failure. To facilitate this,
12 to 24 months, and hence, pro¬active planning utilities
becomes key. Figure 8 gives the global transformer
trade average export value by power rating
capability, and we can see that LPTs are globally the
most sought-after component in the transformer
manufacturing industry. Due to challenges in the
supply chain owing to COVID-19 and other factors,
it is essential that utilities take a proactive role in
identifying transformers that are essen¬tial to
manage the bulk power system reliability. It is also
important for utilities to develop their own scoring
model based on tests and
monitoring/instrumentation data and create a
sound spare transformer strategy.
Spare Transformer Strategy: Past and Present As a
result of the supply chain challenges facing the
industry, utilities must evolve their spare
should develop a transformer instrumentation
standard (such as the information listed in Table 1)
that will ensure that data are brought back from
operations and into asset management platforms
used for continuous monitoring in operations and
long-range strategic asset planning. This developed
standard will serve as the basis for future
purchasing specifications outlining the
instrumentation needs for the concerned util¬ity
high-voltage power transformers. This will also
serve to strategically recommend targeted
instrumentation projects that address any major
gaps with legacy transformers cur-rently in service.
This developed instrumentation standard
document should set forth a minimum
requirement of moni¬toring equipment to monitor
asset condition.
Prediction Based on Transformer Testing
Many utilities perform annual oil testing, dissolved
gas analysis (DGA), and a power factor test every
three to five years. These tests are used to monitor
the health of a trans¬former and help predict when
the transformer will need to be replaced. DGA is
often the first indication that problems exist with a
transformer. DGA consists of sending oil sam¬ples
to a laboratory for testing, as transformer oil health
is a good indicator of the overall transformer itself.
DGA reports individual and total combustible gas
generation rates based on IEC 60599 and/or IEEE
C57-104 standards.
There are some recommended industry rules to
interpret a DGA report. However, transformers are
complex pieces
table 1. An example of a standardized
instrumentation package for
substation transformers.
of critical electrical equipment, and hence,
experience and expert engineering judgment
should always be consulted and are recommended.
A good utility practice is to perform TM DGA,
maintaining a good bookkeeping practice of the
results and comparing earlier DGA reports with
later ones. However, most indicators in these tests
advance rapidly, and hence, periodic testing in
close intervals and comparing the results with
previous test reports are some of the key aspects
to be considered for DGA. Also, new engineers
entering the testing field should note that if a
transformer is cooled and de-energized or is a new
transformer that has not yet com¬pleted at least
two to four weeks of continuous service, DGA
results might be quite unreliable.
Table 2 condenses some of the key
recommendations and action items from a DGA
analysis. If the gas concen¬tration, in parts per
million, exceeds the normal limits but is less than
the action limits, the frequency of DGA test¬ing
should be increased with some consideration given
to planned outages in the future for further
evaluation. As the gas concentration exceeds the
"action" column, removal of the transformer might
be considered. It should be noted that these gas
concentrations should be tested periodically, and
any sharp increase in the concentrations might
indicate a potential problem. In summary, just the
concentration levels of these key gases should not
be taken as an indication of a possible problem, but
the trend of these dissolved gas levels should be
evaluated to better understand DGA results.
One of the common causes of a transformer failure
is the breakdown of the dielectric. Generally,
dielectric breakdown happens due to repeated
thermal cycles with high temperatures combined
with moisture, oxygen, and other air particulates. It
has been observed that dielectric breakdown in a
transformer is aggravated if the transformer is
overloaded frequently. A power factor test of a
transformer is done to test the ac char¬acteristics
of the transformer dielectric. Dielectric losses of a

transforrnef),-: a p_ w31°factor
test. When the transformer insulation is excii:ed by
-a known ac voltage, it draws charging current. The
charging current can be split into two components:
capacitive and resistive current. As the name
suggests, capacitive current leads the applied
volt¬age by 90°, whereas the resistive current
component is in phase with the applied voltage.
Capacitive current is directly pro¬portional to the
dielectric constant of the insulation, area, and
voltage and inversely proportional to the thickness
of the insu¬lation under test. Changes in capacitive
current indicate insula¬tion degradation. As the
insulation deteriorates, more current will leak
through the insulation, and the power factor
therefore becomes increasingly greater. The results
of a power factor test will confirm the condition of
the insulation in the windings, bushings, tap
changers, and oil. For modern oil-filled power
transformers, power factors of 0.5% or less, at 20
°C (68 °F), for individual windings to ground and
interwinding insulations are generally considered a
passing criterion.
Spare Transformer: Present Strategies
Companies employ different strategies with respect
to trans-former replacement. These range from run
to failure to tar-geted replacement.
Strategy 1: Run Transformers Until Failure and Have
Large Spare Inventory to Account for Failures
Some companies choose to run their transformers
until there is a failure. This strategy ensures that
the company has used the equipment to its fullest
extent but could come at the poten¬tial expense of
operational risk posed by an unplanned fail¬ure.
This philosophy would typically require a company
to maintain more spares so that it would be
prepared to replace a transformer after it fails and
be able to have sufficient spares available for
multiple individual failures in a short time frame. A
failure could happen at any moment and could
create other issues in the system, so this justifies
the need for a larger inventory of spares. It is
recommended that utilities have at least a basic
prediction model, if detailed predictive models are
not technically feasible, combined with inventory
lead time models to recommend the appropriate
transformer strategy strategically and dynamically.
Strategy 2: Replacement Based on Asset
Management Practices and Optimized Inventory
Most companies employ a programmatic or
targeted replace-ment strategy for transformers,
based on predictive health measures from their
asset management department. Some companies
replace a set number of transformers every year,
and others replace based on the health of a
transformer. The latter would require a formal
process to assess the condition of a transformer.
Predictive transformer replacements can be driven
by models derived from a utility's historical
datasets, analyzing past failures, historic test
results, and maintenance records to train an
advanced model capable of predicting future
failures. Further, advanced analytical techniques
could build
off this predictive model and pair it with a basic
optimization model to establish optimal inventory
levels based on predicted failures and dynamic
transformer lead times updated regularly based on
updated lead times from utility supply chain
experts.
Spare Strategy: Future Recommendations
A long-term spare transformer strategy should he
transitioned to a risk-based methodology including
additional asset moni¬toring data. This strategy will
help ensure that inventory levels directly align with
the probability of failures to ensure an opti¬mal
spare transformer strategy. As more data become
avail¬able through asset monitoring, additional
performance metrics should be built into the risk
formula. It is recommended that transformer
inventory levels be evaluated on an annual basis to
ensure that the inventory strategy is refreshed
based on the risk profile.
Once a utility reaches a future state in online
transformer monitoring, it may be possible to shift
to planned transformer replacements, versus the
current methodology of running to failure, if
sufficient leading indicators are developed that can
positively identify a failing transformer. This
strategy would require fewer spare transformers
since the methodology determines which
transformers to replace and when to replace them.
As a part of the change to this strategy, utilities
would need to create a transformer health index,
criticality index, or risk index or some combination
of the three that considers everything from
transformer test results, condition, and utili¬zation
to location and criticality. As noted in this article,
tar¬geted replacement is the strategy employed by
most utilities, and a combination of these three
metrics would help to better plan and prepare for
the future. This three-pronged scoring model might
be used to rank the worst-performing
transform¬ers in a utility footprint.
Health Index
Some of the recommended parameters that might
be used to create the health index are DGA, load
history, global loss factor, infrared thermography,
oil quality analysis, Omicron testing data, Furan's
content, leakage reactance, winding resis¬tance,
core to ground connection, conditions of bushings,
tank corrosion, and so on. Each of these
parameters can be assigned a weight, and an
overall quantitative health index can be
formu¬lated. These metrics were determined by
looking at the failure modes of a transformer and
understanding the maintenance and tests taken to
help understand how that transformer is
per¬forming. The biggest challenge that some
utilities might run into is the lack of data and the
lack of consistency in the data. With the data that
might be available, utilities might be able to rank all
these metrics from zero to 10, with 10 being
perfect health. For example, if a transformer has
high gas levels, then that can be assigned a certain
score threshold, depending on the severity and
internal utility practice.
A lesson that might help the industry, from the
authors' collective experience, is the fact that age
has a lower effect on transformer health than most
people think. Transformers
are created to withstand a lot of capacity. Unless
there are outside forces causing a unit to fail, the
age of a transformer is almost irrelevant to the
overall health. That is why age can have a small
weighting factor in the metrics developed. There
are quite a few 80-year-old transformers in some
util-ity territories that are still performing quite
well. With all these data, metrics, and weighting
factors, a model should be built to monitor the
health of transformers. Transformer
monitoring/instrumentation packages should be
used and are recommended to augment the
developed models. In the future, using these
developed models, utilities should be able to
develop a structure feeding data into health score
models to do predictive and preventative
maintenance and reduce outages. This will help
utilities to shift from the strategy of running a
transformer to failure. Understanding the
difference between time-based maintenance and
pre¬ventative/proactive maintenance is the key
here. Obtaining data from the installed
transformers through using instru¬mentation and
automation would help the models make bet¬ter
decisions.
The authors recommend that the developed health
index should be reflective of the overall
transformer health and should provide an objective
evaluation instead of being a subjective
observation. The index should be understandable
and be interpreted easily for it to be widely useful.
Criticality Index
Since the health index depends on testing data, a
criticality index might also be defined for the
benefit of the overall asset management plan. The
criticality index will assign a score to each
transformer, based on network location, load
serving crit¬icality, impact on system stability,
consequence of failure, and social and
environmental impacts, if any. Similar to the health
index, ft.- criticality index parameters might be
weighted depending on their relative importance.
For example, more weight might be given to system
instability and load serving capability than some
other parameters, though this should depend on
engineering judgment and is best left to utilities to
find out what works best for their footprint.
Risk Index
A risk index might be formulated, which is a
combination of the health index and criticality
index, with equal weight given to both. Since the
risk index takes into consideration
power system. This article delineated some past
and state-of-the-art transformer failure prediction
methodologies that are used in the industry:
transformer asset health monitoring concepts,
instrumentation packages that are currently avail-
able, loading calculations, and the effect of reverse
power
flow in transformers.
Proactive transformer health monitoring using
standard tests and bringing data from the field in
regular intervals to feed into a health model will be
key in moving to the future. Also, while planning
for transformers in an area with high renewable
growth, care must be taken regarding the choice of
transformers and, if required, through adequate
system studies. Specifications regarding low-core-
flux designs might be incorporated at an early stage
in these areas. The authors' hope is that this article
will inspire utilities to set up proactive standards
and requirements as we transition to a smarter
future with more active loads, renewables, and
two-way power flow. As a final note, the authors
would like to point out that the article is devoted
primarily to substation transformers and might not
be applicable for other transmis-sion and
distribution assets.
For Further Reading
IEEE Guide for Loading Mineral-Oil-Immersed
Transform-
ers and Step-Voltage Regulators, IEEE Standard
C57.91, 2011.
IEEE Guide for the Interpretation of Gases
Generated in Mineral Oil-Immersed Transformers,
IEEE Standard C57.104, 2019.
IEEE Standard for Interconnection and
Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources
with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces,
IEEE Standard 1547-2018.
Mineral Oil-filled Electrical Equipment in Service—
Guidance on the Interpretation of Dissolved and
Free Gas¬es Analysis, IEC Standard 60599, 2022.
Office of Technology Evaluation, "The effect of
imports of transformers and transformer
components on the national security," Bureau of
Industry and Security, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington, DC, USA, 2020. Accessed:
Dec. 21, 2022. [Online.] Available:
https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.
php/documents/section-232-investigations/2790-
redacted -goes-report-20210723-ab-redacted/fi le
Biographies
Rajarshi Roychowdhury